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So we all picked the Steelers getting that many points and saw it lose, even though having watched the game I feel with a couple of very possible different breaks the Steelers could very easily have covered against the Browns so I certainly don’t feel like we were wrong. Still, our attention turns to the rest of the week’s games and there’s a few games where the picks are tricky but plenty I’m curious about.

I will say that I appear to have a lot of road teams this week, but I try to pick based on the numbers and what I think of the matchup so let’s see how week three goes.

Early Games:

There’s a few high lines in the early slate of games, but I think the Bills visiting the Dolphins will be closer than the line thinks despite the Bills’ hot start to the season, whilst I think the opposite of the Colts hosting the Chiefs. I’m curious about the results between the Ravens visiting the Patriots and properly concerned about the Bengals visiting the Jets.

I think the other game from the Bengals visiting the Jets that I will be watching from this group is the Texans at Bears as I’m still curious about both teams, and one of the first missions for me during the early part of the season is to get every non-AFC North team watched once as I’ll see plenty of the Browns, Ravens and Steelers anyway.

Texans @ Bears (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Raiders @ Titans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Chiefs @ Colts (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cheifs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Bills @ Dolphins (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Lions @ Vikings (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Ravens @ Patriots (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Bengals @ Jets (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Eagles @ Washington (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Saints @ Panthers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Late Games:

I’m genuinely surprised about the line between the Chargers and the Jaguars as between the issues the Chargers had had one the offensive line and the improved competence the Jaguars have shown, I feel like this will be a closer game than the points suggests. The consensus of lines I’m seeing online agrees with me so while I do expect the Chargers to win, I like the Jaguars to be within a touchdown. I’ve gone back and forth on the Rams and Cardinals and could have easily gone with the Cardinals at home with them being that half point over the field goal, but I have a number going the other way so I’m nervously going with the Rams.

The other game I am watching this week is the Packers at Buccaneers, where I’m backing the Packers to keep moving on from their bad opening week loss and the fact that the Tom Brady weirdness is continuing, and they are without Mike Evans this week through suspension. The pick does make me nervous but I’m really looking forward to watching both teams for the first time this season.

Jaguars @ Chargers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Rams @ Cardinals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Falcons @ Seahawks (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Packers @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

49ers @ Broncos (+1.5)

The Broncos have got off to a rough start, whilst perversely the loss of their starting quarterback Trey Lance perhaps raises the floor of the 49ers. Whilst the Broncos offence is still looking disjointed and rookie head coach Nathanial Hackett is making questionable decisions I’m going to back the 49ers on the road in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Monday Night Football

Cowboys @ Giants (-2.5)

I hated picking this game so much. I like the start the Giants have had to the season, and I think they are beginning to build something, but it is the start of a very big job given how bad they have been in recent seasons. The Cowboys are in a worse position than I was expecting this season thanks to the Dak Prescott injury, but Cooper Rush got the job done running the offence last week, ably helped by the Bengals awful start to the season and inability to cope with Micah Parsons’ pass rush. My instinct and heart is with the Giants, and I can definitely see them winning this game, but the numbers are saying Cowboys for the cover and whilst its early to have the numbers overrule my head, particularly as I’d really like to be getting three, I’m going to trust the numbers for now…

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.