Monthly Archives: October 2017

AAF: Cameron Jordan

29 Sunday Oct 2017

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I decided to watch Cameron Jordan on coaching tape having been impressed with his performance against the Detroit Lions in week six, but the week seven game against the Green Bay Packers was very different. This was probably because both David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga started for the Packers this week.

Cameron Jordan played mostly left end in this game, although he did occasionally line up on the right standing up, or on the right as part of a 3-3 nickel look. As a consequence he spent most of this game going up against right tackle Brian Bulaga unless the blocking scheme sent Bulaga somewhere else. In fact the one quarterback hit Jordan did get was against a play action pass where tight end Richard Rodgers was assigned to block him and couldn’t hold up which allowed Joran to get to Brett Hundley whose pass was incomplete. Jordan was able to flush Hundley out the pocket on one other play when he lined up on the right and was able to get into the backfield but otherwise he was only able to apply pressure whilst fighting an offensive linemen.

Despite usually lining up in a four point stance, it was not so much first step and quickness that Jordan was using as speed to power rushes, but for the most part Bulaga held up, although Jordan was able to push the pocket more than once. In fact, on the final drive in the fourth quarter he was able to push Bulaga back and get a hand on a pass to break up the play. This was not the first time Jordan got his hand in a passing lane but was the only time he got a hand to the ball.

For me this is one of the harder bits of coaching tape to evaluate. It is pretty easy to comment on a speed rusher getting lots of pressure, but when the stats are quiet and there’s an equal battle going on between defensive lineman and offensive lineman it is hard to evaluate if you don’t know all the nuances and are not a coaching expert. To my eye Cameron Jordan held up in the run, was strong enough to hold up blocks, was double teamed several times, and did manage to get some pressure. It was not the kind of game where Jordan would definitely catch the eye, but it feels like he had a solid game and the Saints defence definitely looks to have improved on defence.

Week Eight Picks

29 Sunday Oct 2017

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I could not have been much more wrong about the Thursday night game, which both proves that we know nothing about this season and that picking this week’s game is going to be no fun at all but here we go anyway.

Vikings @ Browns (+9.5)

This is the final of the London games this season, and once again I’m not sure what affect the travel will have on these teams as the Minnesota Vikings have gone out early and the Cleveland Browns didn’t leave until Friday. The Vikings have a really good defence and are doing enough on offence that they lead their division, whilst the Browns are searching for their first win of the season. I really don’t like what head coach Hue Jackson is doing with his quarterbacks at the moment, and whilst you can’t rule out a surprise – especially when both teams are on the road – it is hard to see anything other than a win for the Vikings. Can the Browns stay within ten points? I’m not sure, but with a struggling team on the road, and players complaining about the trip I feel like it’s more likely the Vikings win big than anything else.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Falcons @ Jets (+4.5)

The Atlanta Falcons travel to face the New York Jets this week and if we’ve learnt anything this season it is that the Falcons are not as dynamic on offence and the Jets are a much tougher opposition that anyone was thinking before the season started. It’s not that I’m super confident in how this game is going to go, but if you’re going to give me four and a half points as a home team in what could be a close game, I’m going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Raiders @ Bills (-2.5)

The Oakand Raiders have struggled except for the two games that I have watched them and are coming off a dramatic win against the Chiefs last week. However, even with a long week they are travelling to face the Buffalo Bills who have been nothing but competitive this season. It may be that Derek Carr looked better last week, but can the Raiders keep the momentum going? In the end I feel like I have more trust in the stability of the Bills so I’ll back them to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Saints (-8.5)

This is a curious game to me as the Chicago Bears asked their rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky to drop back to pass just seven times last week as they ground out a win against the Panthers, and this week they travel to face a New Orleans Saints team who currently rank twenty-ninth in rush defence by DVOA. However, it is hard to see Bears keeping up with the Saints’ third ranked offence by DVOA using such a run dominated game plan and I fancy the Saints to run out winners in this one. Will they cover? The Bears have only lost two games by more than nine points, but I have a feeling this will be the third.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Colts @ Bengals (-10.5)

The Indianapolis Colts have really struggled all season, and are coming off a shutout loss against the Jaguars where they gave up ten sacks. The Cincinnati Bengals managed a half of competitive football last week before their offence stalled again, but facing the Colt’s thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA is a lot different to facing the Steelers. I could be wrong, but I think this should be a game the Bengals can use to get back on track and whilst I’m not confident about anything to do with my team, I think they can and will cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Chargers @ Patriots (-7.5)

The New England Patriots got a good win last week, but I’m not sure where the balance lies between their defence improving and facing the Falcons and the Jets the last two weeks. Still they are at home facing an LA Chargers team who have won three straight and who are coming off a solid win against the Broncos. Their only loss by more than eight points came against the Chiefs in week three, and I just fancy the Chargers to keep this one closer than eight, although I see the Patriots running out winners in the end.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

49ers @ Eagles (-12.5)

This is a hard game for me to pick as the San Francisco 49ers had kept all of their games close until last week when they were steam rollered by the Cowboys. This week they travel to face an impressive Philadelphia Eagles team with the best record in the league, but the Eagles did pick up a couple of injuries last week, with the loss of left tackle Jason Peters really worrying me. I would expect the Eagles to win this one, but this line scares me, yet at home against a team who have not found their way I’m going to nervously back one of the few things I feel relatively confident about in the league.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Panthers @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

I have no real idea what to do with this game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have looked good on offence but their defence is ranked last by DVOA and this week they welcome a Carolina Panthers team who just lost to the Chicago Bears. The Panthers were without Luke Kuechly last week but the Pro Bowl linebacker has cleared concussion protocol and should play this week. In this game I am just going to grab the points and hope that the Panthers can put enough together against the bad Tampa defence.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Texans @ Seahawks (-5.5)

The Seattle Seahawks got a solid win on the road last week against the Giants and look to be coming to the part of the season where they come good, even if their offensive line is still troubling. This week they welcome a Houston Texans team coming off a bye and in turmoil. The comments of their owner at last week’s league meeting have caused real anger in the team and led to a ninety minute air your feelings meeting on Friday. It is possible that the Texans are going to stage a protest on Sunday, and in a notoriously difficult place to play I will back the Seahawks to be the more focussed team and cover the line.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Cowboys @ Washington (+2.5)

The Dallas Cowboys got a solid win but travel to Washington this week in a divisional game that both teams desperately need to keep in contact with the Eagles who are already three games up on both teams. Washington rate a little better by DVOA but neither team are exactly inspiring confidence at the moment. This is a game where I’m going to grab the points for the home team and hope, I could be very wrong as Ezekiel Elliot did look good last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Steelers @ Lions (+3.5)

The Detroit Lions are coming off a bye week having lost a strange game where their defence didn’t look that bad whilst giving up fifty-two points against the Saints the week before. However, this week they face a Pittsburgh Steelers who seem to have found their identity on offence whilst their defence is ranked second by DVOA and overall they are the best team according to DVOA. The Lions may be at home, but in this one I fancy the Steelers to continue their good run.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Broncos @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Denver Broncos just got shut out by the LA Chargers and this week travel to face a Kansas City Chiefs team who have lost two straight for the first time since 2015. The Broncos offence has been struggling and Arrowhead stadium is not the kind of place to rediscover your form. The Chiefs offence has struggled a little bit against zone defence in the last two weeks and it is hard to know if the Chiefs can find their explosive early season form again but a healthier receiving group will help. The Broncos’ defence is still very good and as a divisional game it feels like this should be a close game, but having lost badly to the Giants and the Chargers I can’t quite bring myself pick the Broncos covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

The Way Forward

26 Thursday Oct 2017

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It was a frustrating weekend for me as a Bengals fan, with a competitive game in the first half dwindling into failure as the Bengals offence stalled once again. We are still in the first half of the season but the 2-4 record feels very different to the 3-3 that was possible with a win. On its own it was not a particularly bad loss, the Bengals were playing one of the best teams in the AFC rounding into form and playing at home, but the frustration of a division loss seemed to signal the final death knell for any hope of a turnaround. That’s not to say that the Bengals can’t salvage something for themselves, but it feels like this cycle is done and although there are young developing players, particularly on defence, the offence continues to need work and I don’t see how things turn round this season. The offensive line just wasn’t good enough at the weekend, and whilst bad offensive lines are becoming more common in the NFL, the Bengals do not have a quarterback in Andy Dalton who can overcome this.

I am mindful of the change that Marvin Lewis has been responsible for over his tenure, and how the Bengals are no longer a laughing stock but it may be time for a fresh approach. Although a change doesn’t necessarily guarantee success and there is no shortage of teams struggling this season.

Still we are rapidly approaching the half way mark in the season and yet there seems to be a lot of teams for which we still have questions, two of which play tonight.

Gee:      Week 7   7-8                       Overall   60-47
Dan:       Week 7   11-4                     Overall   53-54

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5)

The quality of the Thursday night games have been better this season, with last week’s game being something of a cracker, but in this one we see one team with a backup quarterback visiting a team who may have their starter, but that starter looks like a shell of the QB who led the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl win.

The Ravens have a huge injury list so their record may be understandable, but right now they are struggling and whilst the Miami Dolphins have not looked good doing it, they are on a three game win streak. We get to see how Matt Moore will do on a short week, but this line is just that bit too much for me to back the Ravens to cover. This could be a big mistake on a Thursday night game, but I am going to back the road team to at least be within four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Week Seven Picks

22 Sunday Oct 2017

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Buccaneers @ Bills (-2.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have announced that they are starting quarterback Jameis Winston despite pulling him from last week’s game due to a shoulder injury, but whether he will be effective against a Buffalo Bills defence that currently ranks second in the league by DVOA is another question. To be honest, at the moment I would say that the Bills are the better team and I would expect them to win out at home against a Bucs team that hasn’t quite come together this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Panthers @ Bears (+3.5)

The Chicago Bears managed to get a win in rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s first start, but he was only asked to make sixteen passes as opposed to fifty-four rush attempts. This is a very specific formula and they are facing a Carolina Panthers’ rush defence that ranks sixth in the league by DVOA. More worrying is that the Panthers’ offence is also coming together and I would expect them to win out after losing a close game to the Eagles last week. Sadly Luke Kuechly won’t be playing as he is suffering a concussion for the third straight year, but that is not altering my pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Titans @ Browns (+5.5)

The Cleveland Browns are going back to starting DeShone Kizer, which is the right long term decision for the team as they need to find out if they have their quarterback of the future, but it does seem that Hue Jackson is feeling the pressure of not having won a game this year. This week they welcome a Tennessee Titans team that have to restrict Marcus Mariota’s movements out the pocket but they got back on track with a win last week. I would expect them to win again this week but I’m not sure they will win by six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Saints @ Packers (+5.5)

As if Green Bay Packers didn’t have enough injury problems already with their offensive line, they’ve now lost Aaron Rogers to a broken collar bone in his throwing shoulder. The Packers’ backup quarterback Brett Hundley has been at the Packers for a couple of years but will run a different system to Rodgers and whilst he will try to keep them in the playoff hunt, this is a tough proposition. The New Orleans Saints have actually improved on defence this season, and defensive end Cameron Jordan will be looking forward to facing the Packers’ beat up line. However, whilst the points make me nervous, the Saints have won their last three games by a minimum of seven points and so I’m backing them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Jaguars @ Colts (+2.5)

This is a much harder game for me to pick as the Indianapolis Colts have managed to win a couple of games and welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team who lose one week and win the next. However, there is a big difference in the DVOA rankings and every Jaguars win has come on the road including their one home game win that was actually played in London so despite them giving points to the Colts I’m picking the Jaguars this week to continue the trend.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

The LA Rams are hosting the Arizona Cardinals at Twickenham stadium in London and this is a really fascinating game. The Rams continue to lead their division thanks to the turn around on offence that Sean McVay has brought about, but their defence is a surprising rank of twenty-two against the run by DVOA. Two weeks ago this would not have been a problem against a Cardinals team who had lost David Johnson and were really struggling on offence as a while. However, having traded for Adrian Peterson, they looked a much better balanced offence and were able to run out easy winners against the Buccaneers last week. How consistent this turnaround is I don’t know, and with the added variant of a trip to London I really don’t know how to pick this game. In the end, I’m going to grab the extra half point given to the Cardinals, but as much as I’m looking forward to watching this game, the pick is very much a shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Jets @ Dolphins (-2.5)

This is another game that I find hard to pick as I really don’t have a handle on the Miami Dolphins, who for large parts of the season have just not looked very good, but then their defence will play tough and Jay Cutler will look like a competent quarterback. They welcome a New York Jets team who have already exceeded the expectations going into the season with their three wins, and although they lost their last game, the Jets put up a credible fight against the Patriots.

Both teams have similar DVOA rankings, but this is only the Dolphins second true home game this season and with a two game winning streak I’m going to pick them nervously, but I could easily see the Jets winning this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Ravens @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Minnesota Vikings are developing one of the better home advantages in the league and welcome a Baltimore Ravens team whose offence only ranks twenty-sixth in the league. I would expect the Ravens to struggle to move the ball on the Vikings in their noisy stadium and can see the Vikings covering this line, which is why I am picking them.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Cowboys @ 49ers (+6.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have specialised in close losses this season, so the fact that they are getting six and a half points at home is pretty much getting my pick straight away. The Dallas Cowboys may have Ezekiel Elliott, but their offence has not quite played up to last year’s level although they are ranked fifth in rush DVOA. Their defence is currently ranked thirtieth by DVOA though and in this game whilst I would expect them to win, I do expect the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers found their formula last week by focussing on the run and their zone defence was able to hold up the Chiefs enough to get a win. They are rightly favourites at home against a Cincinnati Bengals team who have fought their way back into the season after a poor start. These games are usually close, and whilst I’m not sure the Bengals can win this game I do strongly fancy them to stay within six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Broncos @ Chargers (-1.5)

The LA Chargers don’t really have a home advantage as even in the smaller stadium they are using in their first season in LA they have been unable to sell out and have often had a large numbers of away fans in attendance. They welcome a Denver Broncos team who had problems last week as they gave the Giants their first win of the season. The Broncos have some injuries at receiver and Trevor Siemian had to come out the game last week with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder but is expected to be back this week. I find it hard to believe the Broncos will be as bad this again and it’s got to be dispiriting for the Chargers to be playing in that stadium so I’m backing the Broncos to get things back on track in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Seahawks @ Giants (+5.5)

The New York Giants got their first win of the season last week despite all the injuries at receiver and this week welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who have slipped out of the top ten rankings in defensive DVOA and whose offensive line is struggling even more than usual. I fancy the Seahawks to find a way to win, but with an offence with a clear game plan and a defence that played better last week I fancy the Giants to cover this line at home, although it does make me a bit nervous.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Falcons @ Patriots (-3.5)

I am still not quite sure how the Atlanta Falcons lost last week having been seventeen points up at half time, but they managed it and this week they travel to face the New England Patriots who had the amazing comeback against the Falcons in the last Super Bowl. The Patriots have got back to the top of their division despite a defence that still ranks last in DVOA and who has given up three hundred yards of passing to every quarterback they have faced. The question about giving up leads will follow the Falcons until they have won enough games to put it out of people’s minds, but they will be looking for revenge in this game and have a quarterback capable of exploiting the Patriots’ defensive issues even if things are not going as well for them having lost co-ordinator Kyle Shanahan.

I’m really not sure how to pick this game, and the half point strongly tempts me to pick the Falcons but having won the last two games and with them generally finding a way, I’m going to back the Patriots.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Washington @ Eagles (-4.5)

This is one of the games of the week with the Philadelphia Eagles welcoming their division rivals who they beat handily in week one. Things have improved for Washington who are the Eagles closest rivals in the NFC East division and who really need this win to stop the Eagles from taking a commanding three game lead, which would be very hard to claw back.

The Eagle are ranked second in the league by DVOA but Washington are not that far behind them and now that Washington are enough weeks away from a pre-season that didn’t seem to prepare them for the start of the season very well, I feel it will be a close game. In fact close enough that this is too many points for the Eagles to be giving away. I just hope I’m not wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

AAF: Adrian Peterson

22 Sunday Oct 2017

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So after an aborted attempt a couple of weeks ago, I have finally got through an entire game of coaching tape and so I’m very happy to be able to write up what I saw when I took a look at Adrian Peterson’s first game for the Arizona Cardinals against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.

I was not convinced that Peterson was going to make a huge difference to the Cardinals when he was traded to them from the New Orleans Saints but the move did make sense for both teams. It had been a couple of seasons since we had seen Peterson at his best and the criticism has been that he was not able to run out of shotgun formations and that given his ability in the passing game, when he was on the field it was too much of a tip to what was going to happen on that play.

In the game against the Buccaneers last week Peterson ran for one hundred and thirty-four yards on twenty-six carries giving him over a five yard per carry average, and he scored two touchdowns. Peterson did have one fumble, but he was bailed out by guard Earl Watford who recovered the ball for him.

The classic thing you hear about Peterson is that he is a volume runner and he runs best from the I-formation. Whilst he did not take many snaps in the shotgun formation, he was not the obvious indicator of a running play that has been talked about in recent years. The Cardinals spent most of the game in 11 or 12 personnel, with Adrian Peterson as the single back but for most of these snaps Carson Palmer was under centre rather than in shotgun. From here Peterson did run the ball effectively, with his longest run that counted being twenty-seven yards though he did also have a forty-one yard run called back due to an illegal blocking penalty, although Peterson was also called for taunting at the end of that play as well.

It has to be said that Peterson does not look to have burst when compared to the athletes around him, but he is a patient runner with enough experience and shiftiness to be effective. More importantly, he seemed to give the Cardinals balance and although he was only targeted once in the passing game, he did run a number of routes or play action fakes and so his presence on the field was not an indication of whether a run or pass play was coming.

It is too early to tell if he can continue this pace over the course of the season as he has not carried this level of  load for a couple of years, but the early signs are definitely positive and if he can give the Cardinals’ offence a genuine balance then he could help rescue their season. I look forward to seeing how the Cardinals do against the Rams in London this week.

Existing in a World of Flux

19 Thursday Oct 2017

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It was another week of unpredictable results that saw the New York Giants win their first game of the season on the road and the injury of another of the NFL’s marketable stars with Aaron Rodgers going down with a broken collar bone.

There has been some contention that it was a late hit on Rodgers by Vikinings linebacker Anthony Barr and that he drove Rodgers into the ground. To me it looks like he took a step and made a form tackle. It is a big blow to the Packers and the league to lose a player of Rodger’s standing, but in this instance I think it was a football play.

The continuing narrative surrounding the league is a worry about marketing and viewing figures as well as playing standards. Yes we are seeing a generation of quarterbacks who we are very familiar with come towards the end of their career or retire, but with players like Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and emerging rookie Deshaun Watson I would not give up on the young group of quarterbacks just yet. And that’s ignoring the future years of Russell Wilson and the aforementioned Aaron Rodgers who should have some very good seasons ahead of them.

I am also not so worried about viewing figures given that no one seems to be able to take into account for more fractured way people watch television and sport. The American ratings don’t take into account those watching digitally, so a decline should be taken with a pinch of salt.

The participation levels in youth football however, must be monitored, but given all that we are learning about head injuries it would be a good thing to delay the playing of tackle football until children are big enough. The big change will be when a test for CTE that can be performed on players whilst they are still alive is available, and this is when the seismic changes could take place.

The NFL is heading into a period of flux, and yes I do think the NBA can challenge them with their marketable stars who are not hidden behind a helmet. However, the intricacies and skill of football are still as interesting as ever.

There are things that are affecting the quality of play in the collective bargaining agreement. Maybe coaches do need more practice time, but the days of two a days and endless hitting are behind us. It will require innovation and insight, something that has repeatedly occurred in the league but usually though the vision of a single coach or owner and then picked up across the league.

There will be much to discuss when the next CBA is drawn up, but it would help if the process was less adversarial. I really don’t think it is good for the sport that the relationship between the players union and the league is so fractious. However, it is interesting that at the league meeting this week that despite the comments on the anthem in Roger Goodell’s memo, the focus in the meeting was on what the league could do to further the players who are protesting agenda. This strikes me as a more productive route than demanding players stand for the anthem, although I’m sure as the discussions progresses that they will circle back to tackle that topic.

Still, it useful to remember that even for a sport as conservative as American Football, the world is a place of constant flux and for the league to survive it will have to find a way of existing in that flux.

Not so very different to the rest of us.

Gee:      Week 6   7-7                       Overall   53-39
Dan:      Week 6   7-7                       Overall   42-50

Chiefs @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Oakland Raiders’ offence has just not come together this season, and whilst I like the signing of NaVorro Bowman to bolster the Raiders’ linebacker group, I’m not sure it is enough to help them hang with Kansas City Chiefs’ offence. The Raiders will be desperate for a win to rescue their season but even as a home underdog I can’t pick them in tonight’s game, although it would not exactly surprise me if they were to win.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 56

19 Thursday Oct 2017

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Oh the injuries… so many injuries! This week on The Wrong Football pod, we take a look at the best of Week 6 – the week in which some of the leagues biggest names ended up on the sidelines – and also make our picks for Week 7, when the NFL returns to London for the first of two Twickenham games. We also talk about Ezekiel Elliott’s pending suspension, and pay tribute to Kevin Cadle, who sadly passed away on Monday. All that and more, this week on The Wrong Football podcast!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 56

Week Six Picks

15 Sunday Oct 2017

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So thanks to me being away this weekend, I’m suffering from a bit of a time crunch so I’m trying something for this week only, and will be writing a sentence for each game and giving you our picks, and if you’re seeing this the plan worked.

Dolphins @ Falcons (-11.5)

The Miami Dolphins take their okay defence and misfiring offence on the road to face the Falcons in Atlanta and it feels like the only question is whether this is too many points.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bears @ Ravens (-7.5)

I’m not convinced that the Baltimore Ravens can cover these points just because they put up points against a bad Raiders defence last week and so I’m backing the Chicago Bears to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Browns @ Texans (-9.5)

The Houston Texans have lost two key players on defence whilst finding a quarterback so it feels like they will be in a lot of shoot outs for the rest of the season and this is a lot of points to cover, but it is against the Cleveland Browns at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Lions @ Saints (-4.5)

This looks to be a cracking game as the Detroit Lions take their top ten ranked defence to face Drew Brees in the Super Dome and I’m really not sure who is going to win so I’ll grab the points in what feels like a close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Packers @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Green Bay Packers will always have a chance with Aaron Rodger as their quarterback despite their injuries, but Minnesota Vikings are a tough team even if they don’t have their starting quarterback so this is a pick that is all about getting a chance to pick a home underdog.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

The New England Patriots travel with their high flying offence and a defence that is ranked last in the NFL by DVOA to face the New York Jets who have earned more respect than this line is giving them.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

49ers @ Washington (-9.5)

After their opening week loss to the Panthers the San Francisco 49ers have not lost by more than three points and so this line feels a little high even if Washington have been playing well in recent weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Rams @ Jaguars (-2.5)

This game sees two teams with winning records that you might not have predicted before the season face each other with the LA Rams improved offence taking on a Jacksonville Jaguars defence that is ranked first in the league by DVOA and so despite my worries over their offence I’m backing the Jags.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Buccaneers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I’m really not convinced that the addition of Adrian Peterson to the Arizona Cardinals will help solve their offensive problem s and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers really need to get themselves back on track.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Steelers @ Chiefs (-3.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ offence has not flowed properly this season, and I’m just not sure that a trip to Arrowhead stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs is the game for them to turn things around.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Chargers @ Raiders (-6.5)

There’s talk that the Oakland Raiders will have Derek Carr back despite only being a week removed from fracturing the transverse process in his back, but the LA Chargers have got their first win of the season and have kept nearly all of their games closer than this.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Giants @ Broncos (-12.5)

The New York Giants are falling apart and travelling to Denver to face the Broncos defence with mass injuries in your receiver group does not look like a formula for success.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Colts @ Titans (-3.5)

This is a game that the Tennessee Titans have to win to get things back on track having lost badly to the Texans and then followed that up by losing a winnable game against the Dolphins, but the Indianapolis Colts are the second worst team in the NFL by DVOA so they stand a good chance.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:           Colts

A Strange Season

12 Thursday Oct 2017

Posted by in Picks Competition

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It feels like a strange season so far for the NFL.

Some of that is the usual unpredictability of team performance, and so whilst it is a surprise to see the New York Jets with a 3-2 record given what almost everyone but the most ardent of Jets fans were expecting for the season, but it is also not unusual for it to happen in the NFL.

It is unusual is for the league to be having a feud with the executive branch of the US government, but when you have Vice President Mike Pence staging his own walk out protest in response to the kneeling of some San Francisco 49ers’ players for the national anthem then you know this is not something that is going quieten down soon. In fact, Roger Goodell has sent out a memo and is hoping to come up with a solution that will persuade all players to stand for the anthem in return for certain commitments to address the issues players are concerned with.

I suspect much of this is to do with the league’s bottom line and the response of a large section of fans, but I don’t entirely disagree when Goodell writes, ‘The controversy over the Anthem is a barrier to having honest conversations and making real progress on the underlying issues.”

A protest doesn’t’ gain traction if it is comfortable, but there is now that a conversation is being started it needs to be focussed on the issues at hand and the point of the protest was never about the flag. It’s just hard not to see this as the league backing its African American players until the their money was threatened.

It does at least look like the NFLPA will be involved in next week’s meetings, but at this stage it just feels like no one knows what is going to happen.

I know the feeling. I am hoping to get back to something like a routine in a couple of weeks as I work on finishing the edits on my second book that is coming out next year, but whilst the coaching tape still escapes me, at least my picks are holding up so far.

Gee:      Week 5   10-4                     Overall   46-32
Dan:       Week 5   5-9                       Overall   35-43

Eagles @ Panthers (-2.5)

This looks like it could be a really good Thursday night game as long as the short week doesn’t hurt the travelling team as it so often does, but the Philadelphia Eagles have had a strong start to the season with their running game being surprisingly effective. They travel to face a Carolina Panthers team whose defence carried them for the first couple of weeks, but now it looks like Cam Newton is hitting his stride after an offseason spent recovering from surgery and a slow start to the season.

This line feels about right, so I’m going to take the home team on a Thursday night, but I don’t feel super confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 55

12 Thursday Oct 2017

Posted by in Podcasts

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After our Bye week last week, The Wrong Football pod is back to talk all things NFL! As we head into Week 6, we take an updated look at the Kneeling controversy, and also Payton Manning’s famous number 18 Jersey being retired in Indianapolis. And how far ahead is Gee in the Pick’em competition? There’s only one way to find out!!
Oh, and as a little bonus this week, I’ve left a bit of an out-take at the end – enjoy!

 

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 55