Monthly Archives: September 2019

2019 Week Four Picks

29 Sunday Sep 2019

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I feel frustrated that I didn’t find the time to watch coaching tape again this week, but there is only so much time in a day and we’ll have to see if I can protect my blog time better next week. There is time for me to take another quick run through the picks, but let’s start with this week’s trivia question. We were asked:

‘In how many Super Bowls did the Buffalo Bills appear during the 1990s?
To be clear it if for Super Bowls played between 1.1.1990 and 31.12.1999.’

For once I am pretty confident about the answer as the Jim Kelly Bills famously lost four straight Super Bowls, and whilst I’m slightly worried that 3D (Dan’s Devious Dad) is trying a sneaky one with the date clarification, I’m sticking with the four that I think were all in the 90s.

As for the theme, I’m still not totally sure but I’m trying that each answer lost their last Super Bowl appearance.

‘I’m completely guessing this week. The very early 90s would have been when they would have had OJ Simpson [OJ played in the 70s so I think Dan is double wrong this week, but in fairness it could be me who is mistaken – Ed.] playing for them, and I think he took them to a Super Bowl so I don’t think the answer is zero. I think I’ll stick with ONE as my answer this week.

No guess on the theme, but I don’t think it’s cleared up enough for Gee to get it either so I’m not too concerned about that!’

One last thing before we get to the pics as I thought this nugget from Dan’s Dad in our group chat was particularly on point regarding picking games:

Screenshot_20190929_083446.jpg

Titans @ Falcons (-4.5)

I do not trust either of these teams as the Tennessee Titans are struggling on offence and the Atlanta Falcons seem to be plain struggling so I don’t see how the Falcons should be favoured by this much.

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Patriots @ Bills (+7.5)

The New England Patriots have started the season very strongly and I expect them to win this game but the Pats have picked up some injuries on offence whilst the Bills defence has looked really good (top ten by DVOA good through three weeks) and so I think this game will be more competitive than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 for a reason, their offence isn’t quite clicking and this week they travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens whose offence is very much clicking. The Brown do have the kind of receiving talent that could exploit any break downs in the secondary as the Chiefs did to the Ravens last week, but I don’t see the Ravens having failures like that two weeks in a row and for all his presence in the media, the Browns’ Baker Mayfield is no Patrick Mahomes.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Chiefs @ Lions (+6.5)

The unbeaten Detroit Lions welcome the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs but only one of these teams have tied a game to the 0-3 Cardinals. In fairness the Lions have been pretty solid and the Chiefs have picked up a couple of injuries on offence but whilst I would usually jump on this number of points for a home team, the idea of picking against Patrick Mahomes is making pick the favourite this time round.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Raiders @ Colts (-6.5)

The Oakland Raiders have looked competitive in a couple of games but have not looked good to me and have a lowly DVOA rankings as well as only one win against an even worse Broncos team. This week they take on the Indianapolis Colts who have a very good roster and Jacoby Brissett has done well replacing Andrew Luck so whilst the points give me pause, the Raiders road record seals the pick for me.

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Raiders

Chargers @ Dolphins (+16.5)

The Miami Dolphins #FishTank or roster reboot has certainly been effective at losing them games but there are genuine questions about whether an NFL team has ever really competed for a Super Bowl after going through this process. This week they welcome an LA Chargers team who are struggling with injury (a common occurrence for them it feels) who I expect may well win this game but I fancy this as the Dolphins first cover of the season as this is just too many points for me this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Washington @ Giants (-3.5)

In another universe this may well be a game featuring two rookie quarterbacks but whilst the New York Giants began their new era having got a win with Daniel Jones in his first start, the team from Washington seem to be riven with dysfunction. There are rumours that Dwayne Haskins was an ownership pick rather than one the Jay Gruden believed in, but whatever the case Washington have not looked good. I think the Giants will win at home but I really don’t like the line and whilst the numbers might suggest that Washington is the pick I can’t quite bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Panthers @ Texans (-4.5)

The Carolina Panthers actually looked better last week and got their first win of the season with Kyle Allen playing quarterback, which is more to do with Cam Newton being injured than not being any good, although the Panthers might be concerned about Newton’s long-term health given the number of hits he has taken through his career. This week they travel to take on the 2-1 Houston Texans who are all in for the season but have not truly convinced. The offensive line is still letting Deshaun Watson get hit too much but it’s the middle of the league ranked defence that is surprising. In a game where I don’t really trust either team I’m going to grab the points and this could well be one of the games I watch this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Texans

Buccaneers @ Rams (-9.5)

I absolutely hate this line as the LA Rams are the better team but have not exactly looked great this season and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been all over the shop. I love Bruce Arians but he seemed to be making some strange decisions at the end of the game last week and in the process lost to the New York Giants. However, this is a Rams whose defence is top five by DVOA and I don’t trust Jameis Winston at all. This could really come back to bite me, but at home I am going to ignore the numbers and take the Rams.

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Cardinals (+4.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have not looked like a good football team despite Kyler Murray flashing and part of that is Kliff Kingsbury is still trying to find his way in the NFL with his offence. The Cardinals welcome a Seattle Seahawks team whose defence is not up to its usual standards but the offence is ranked fifth in the league by DVOA thanks to some good young receivers and the continued excellence of Russell Wilson and so that is where I am playing my trust.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Vikings @ Bears (-2.5)

The Chicago Bears may have finally got some touchdowns for Mitchell Trubisky last week, but I still don’t trust their offence as they welcome a strong looking Minnesota Vikings team whose defence looks as great as the Bears. There are questions about Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are running the ball a lot on offence so I suspect this game will be competitive with a tight score line. It’s for this reason that I’m grabbing the points, but I would not be surprised if either team won.

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Jaguars @ Broncos (-3.5)

This game could be a trap but I’m going to walk into it anyway. The Denver Broncos have not looked good this season and who would have expected a defence with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb to have no sacks with Vic Fangio has head coach? Meanwhile, for all the nonsense surrounding Jalen Ramsey the Jacksonville Jaguars might have found something on the other side of the ball in rookie Gardiner Minshew II playing quarterback and so whilst Mile High stadium is still a tough place to play I can’t help but pick the Jaguars when I’m getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

Cowboys @ Saints (+2.5)

This could well be matchup of the week with the unbeaten Dallas Cowboys taking on the 2-1 New Orleans Saints. I was impressed with the Saints team win against the Seahawks last week and Teddy Bridgewater did enough with a week for Sean Payton to scheme things up. However, the Cowboys have been impressive all season with Dak Prescott thriving in the new offence that sees them currently ranked number one in the league by DVOA. This leads to the strange line where the Saints are underdogs at home, which would be an automatic pick if Drew Brees was playing, but he’s not and the Saints can’t have the same luck as they had last week so I’m laying the points. This could well be another trap…

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Bengals @ Steelers (-4.5)

What a stunning matchup for Monday night football with two winless teams vying to get themselves their first win – watch this game end in a tie. The Pittsburgh Steelers are somehow laying four and a half points in this one despite the offence looking like it’s missing Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell plus the defence is still struggling. The Cincinnati Bengals don’t rank any better by DVOA but they have been competitive in two of their games and I do think they are a little better than their record would suggest. I’m not saying they will get their first win on the road in Pittsburgh this week, but I like their chances of being within five.

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders‘ statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics on their site.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Four

26 Thursday Sep 2019

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I’m afraid it’s a fly by post tonight – although the delayed mid-week post is up in relatively normal format and I’m feeling pretty happy with the week three results, which should be self-explanatory when you look below.

Gee:                Week    10-6                Overall   26-22
Dan:                Week    8-8                  Overall   23-25
Dan’s Dad:       Week   6-10                 Overall   23-25

Eagles @ Packers (-4.5)

I have a slight hesitation as this line is asking for an extra half point than the consensus line I’m seeing, but despite that my maxim of pick the home team unless there’s a really good reason holds for me this week. The Packers may not be firing on offence but their defence is looking as good as it has in years whilst the Eagles are on the road on a short week with a boat load of injuries. The Eagles could very easily prove me wrong, but I’m happy back the Packers in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Week 4 Trivia

‘Week 3 started with confidence but ended in a train crash. Now, I’m long in the tooth enough to know that good and bad weeks will happen to us all through a season but it hurts when a lead is mercilessly ripped away. But enough of the Monday Morning Quarterback routine and I can take solace in the continued good form of the Vikings.

Right, Trivia, I asked who it was that recorded a Ravens record by rushing for 227 yards in a single game, in 1998?
Two good and logical guesses in Jamal Lewis and Priest Holmes and it is Dan who scooped 2 points by cautiously opting for Priest Holmes. The game saw Holmes ran all 227 yards in (sorry) the Ravens 20 – 13 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

This leaves us with Dan leading 4 : 2
As for the running theme we again have no winner. I half expected the guys to overthink this so perhaps this isn’t as complicated as they think!

And that brings us to Week 4. 2 points again for correctly answering:
In how many Super Bowls did the Buffalo Bills appear during the 1990s?
To be clear it if for Super Bowls played between 1.1.1990 and 31.12.1999.

Lets see where that takes us. Good Luck.’

The Other Quarterbacks

26 Thursday Sep 2019

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It would appear that a quicker process was what was needed to improve my picks in week three, but sadly there was no respite for Dan or I in terms of our teams doing anything other than losing. Still, here we go with my trip through the NFL this week.

What I Saw

Week three started with a one-sided Thursday night game that never quite took off as the Jacksonville Jaguars made a mockery of my pick by grinding out a 20-7 win over the Tennessee Titans. This was a game dominated by penalties and the Jaguars pass rush that sacked Marcus Mariota a massive nine times. The Titans have a real problem as they are good enough to compete across the roster bar quarterback with Mariota holding onto the ball and reluctant to throw the ball deep. This competitiveness will make it difficult for the team to replace Mariota if the team do decide to move on and I wonder at what point we might see Ryan Tannehill get a start if things don’t improve for the Titans offence. Meanwhile, the confident Gardiner Minshew II (I do enjoy that his father’s name is not Gardiner Minshew – he was just creative when registering his son’s name) did enough in his first start to get the Jaguars their first win of the season. The strange thing was the Jaguars defence finally looked really good this week yet it seems as if they are still likely to lose arguably their best player in Jalen Ramsey. In a division that is wide open it would be a curious move indeed to trade him, as was playing him in this game if you intend to trade him and having reported sick on Monday he is on the injury list for his lower back. I still do not trust this team but if their defence can play like this a little more often and Minshew can keep the offence ticking over when the opponent’s defence has time and film to game plan for him fully then the Jaguars could climb back into contention in the division.

The next game I watched was the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Arrowhead stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs, but whilst the Ravens were able to generate over four hundred and fifty yards of offence they were not able to move the ball consistently enough to beat the Chiefs in their home opener falling to a 28-33 loss. The score is actually closer than it was for a lot of game even if the Ravens did get the first touchdown of the contest but Patrick Mahomes had another spectacular second quarter as the Chiefs scored twenty-three points that included two spectacular catches from the young Cheifs’ receivers. First Demarcus Robinson pulled in a lovely one-handed catch and then Mecole Hardman took advantage of a broken coverage to score on an eighty-three yard play that put the Chiefs 20-6 up. There was plenty of production from the Ravens offence, which managed over two hundred rushing yards as part of their day and several splash plays of their own including a several moments of rushing brilliance from Lamar Jackson. However, too many drives stalled and they cost themselves three points from failed two-point conversions, which is an interesting tactical choice when you have one of the most reliable kickers in the league. It was clearly a deliberate tactic and I don’t know the relative percentage of two-point tries versus extra points to do the maths, but if the Ravens had made all of them that would turn a five point deficit into a one point win so I can see what they were trying to do.

I’m not sure I want to write about the Cincinnati Bengals, but I’ll try as they travelled to Buffalo and suffered their third loss of the season falling 21-17 having taken a three point lead with under five minutes to go. However, whilst the record is lousy, the Bengals aren’t all that bad but maddeningly inconsistent. If they could put more consistent good play across four quarters I can see how they could be good – particularly as the pass rush is really good but the run game has been inconsistent ad I wonder where the team will be when they visit London at the end of October. Meanwhile, the Bills continue to be a tough team to face thanks to a stingy defence and an offence that seems to be doing enough. In his second year quarterback Josh Allen is finding a way to compete and the combination of him, TJ Yeldon and the ever reliable Frank Gore dominated a running game that generated one hundred and seventy-five yard. I don’t know if they can beat the visiting Patriots next week, but I suspect it will be a competitive game.

The final game of the week that I watched was the LA Rams travelling to Cleveland to beat the now 1-2 Browns: 20–13. For all the talk of offensive prowess about both teams in the off-season, this was a grind it out defensive contest that seemed to pit the Rams pass rush against the Browns generating three interceptions. The Browns got pressure of their own but it seemed that Jared Goff was the quarterback more prepared to take risks and paid the price in interceptions. However, he did enough to put twenty points on the board even with a missed field-goal, whilst the Browns offensive line seemed to scupper the Brown’s ability to move the ball consistently. The Browns looked good both running the ball with Nick Chubb and passing the ball when Baker Mayfield had time, but were not able to sustain drives regularly enough thanks to multiple Rams’ defenders getting into the backfield and harassing Mayfield. It’s no surprise that Aaron Donald played really well in this game, but the combination of him with Dante Fowler and Clay Mathews really worked for the Rams when rushing the passer with Mathews in particularly looking as good as he has done for several seasons. The saving grace for the Browns is that they have yet to play a divisional opponent but next week they travel to face the Ravens who are the early favourites to win the division. Even starting 1-3 wouldn’t necessarily scupper the Browns chances of making the playoffs given the state of the AFC North so far this season but this first AFC North game against the Raven is now massively important and the Browns have not convinced so far.

What I Heard & What I Think

I’m combining two section this week thanks to the scope of quarterback stories this week, but I’ll try to get back to my normal subjects next week.

There has been a lot of discussion about quarterback this week, which is understandable given that even discounting the Colts’ enforced change in quarterback we now have seven teams starting a different player than was planned at the start of the season. What’s more several teams got wins off the back of their new starter at quarterback. I have already mentioned Gardiner Minshew II who has been getting lots of headlines thanks to the various urban legends that are doing the rounds but one of the other performances that leapt out was by Kyle Allen who led the Panthers to their first win of the season. I don’t think this will necessarily create a quarterback controversy unless Cam Newton cannot get back to the level of performance he has in previous years, but what it does do if Allen can maintain this level of performance then the Panthers can afford to wait unit Newton is fully healthy before returning to the game. This is why whilst no team can afford to have two quality starters on the roster, a good veteran or a promising young player can turn around or rescue a season if they only need to do it for a short stretch.

For instance, the investment the Saints put into making Teddy Bridgewater one of the highest paid backups paid off when he stepped up and won on the road in Seattle. He didn’t look great, but he kept the Saints moving and got them a good win.

However, the other type of quarterback we saw step up was the high pick rookie. A lot of the headlines have gone to Daniel Jones because he plays for the New York Giants but Jones also got a win in his first start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game I’ll be looking at for this week’s Amateur Adventures in Film. It seems the days of a high round rookie quarterback sitting for an entire year are pretty much gone as even Patrick Mahomes got to start week seventeen of his rookie year. Sooner or later a highly drafted player is going to start. I suspect the next one will be in Washington but at what point I don’t know.

What I Know

That someone at the bottom of the AFC North should get their first win of the season next Monday, although it would be just my luck if the teams managed a second tie of the season.

What I Hope

That the Bengals don’t forget themselves against the Steelers and give a good account of themselves in front of the nation on Monday night.

It’s going to be a long wait…

2019 Week Three Picks

22 Sunday Sep 2019

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I am really up against the clock this week thanks to life so this is going to be a by the seat of my pants week, but first the trivia question:

‘Who set a Ravens record by rushing for 227 yards in a single game, in 1998?’

I’m really struggling on this one, so I’m going to take a wild stab at the oldest running back I can remember for the Ravens, which is Jamal Lewis, but I’m not at all sure this is early enough.

As for a theme, all I can think of is expansion teams with the Dolphins and Ravens in the last two weeks and the moving Cardinals from week one, but I’m not sure it is true.

‘Tough one again but I’m basically thinking back to who were the big running backs when I first started playing Madden games! I’m not 100% sure on this because I’m concerned I’ve got my timelines wrong, but I THINK Priest Holmes was their RB at the time – went on to be a bit legendary for Kansas City, but I think 1998 was before he moved there, so that’s my guess!

In terms of the theme, I’m thinking it could be people/teams who went on to do bigger and better things in a different places… probably wrong but it’s a guess!’

Falcons @ Colts (-2.5)

I don’t like this line at all, but I don’t trust the Falcons yet and the Colts have a solid team if their kicker could just find his form.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Bengals @ Bills (-6.5)

Will the real Bengals please stand up? The Bills have beaten two poor teams and this is their home opener, I’m going to grab the points and hope the Bengals prove me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Dolphins @ Cowboys (-21.5)

I can’t believe I’m doing this but with a young quarterback on the road against this team I’m going to grab the Cowboys as the #FishTank sets new records for awful football.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Broncos @ Packers (-7.5)

The Broncos have not looked good and the Packers have failed to convince but this line is a little too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Lions @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Lions have not been good but are undefeated and play a Philadelphia team struggling with injury and whilst I feel the Eagles win, this is too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Ravens @ Chiefs (-6.5)

Game of the day that pits two of the most exciting offences of the year against each other and we get to see how good the Ravens defence is. I could regret this given the Arrowhead home field advantage but again too many points for me,

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Raiders @ Vikings (-7.5)

The Vikings are playing ball control offence and relying on their defence but are going against a Raiders team who have been competitive and better teams than the Raiders have had the Chiefs go off against them so I think this might be close than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Jets @ Patriots (-22.5)

This line somehow is even larger than the Dolphins, but with the Jets on the road with a practice squad quarterback starting I’m going to ignore the number and hope that Patriots do the impossible, which has happened frighteningly often this decade.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Giants @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

I like the Buccaneers to win this game as Todd Bowles has done okay with the defence, they are rested and I like Bruce Arians but this is too many points, even if they are welcoming a poor Giants team starting Daniel Jones in his first game.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Panthers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I HATE this line as with Cam Newton sitting who knows what the Panthers will do whilst the Cardinals have looked frisky losers so far but getting points at home I am going grab them.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Cardinals

Saints @ Seahawks (-5.5)

The Saints are starting Teddy Bridgewater on the road in Seattle but with a week to prepare I’m sure Sean Payton can make them competitive but the Seahawks are good and I think they will run out winner. However, I’m not brave enough to pick them to win by six

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Steelers @ 49ers (-6.5)

The Steelers are clearly confident in Mason Rudolph given that they traded away a first-round draft pick for a defensive back last week, but it could be that the 49ers are genuinely good or at least competitive. I don’t like this line at all so I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Texans @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers have injuries mounting up but it’s hard to have much faith in the Texans yet both of their games have been decided by less that a field goal so let’s see if the trend continues.

Gee’s Pick:        Texans
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Rams @ Browns (+2.5)

The Cleveland Browns have not convinced at all this season, whilst the Rams have won without firing on all cylinders so I’m making this pick based entirely on my faith in the coaching staffs, despite that failing me on Thursday night.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Bears @ Washington (+4.5)

This is not exactly an exciting Monday night game in Washington who have failed to inspire whilst the Bears have failed to get a passing touchdown out of Mitchell Trubisky. This could be the team to get a breakout performance and the Bears defence is formidable, but on the results so far I’m not brave enough to call a Bears win by five.

Gee’s Pick:        Washington
Dan’s Pick:        Bears

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week 3

19 Thursday Sep 2019

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The week two games were not kind to me in terms of picks or results, and Dan’s Dad has returned to the top of the group to take a slender lead, so here are the numbers ahead of tonight’s game and the trivia question.

Dan’s Dad:       Week    8-8                  Overall   17-15
Gee:                Week    6-10                Overall   16-16
Dan:                Week    7-9                  Overall   15-17

Titans @ Jaguars (+1.5)

Both teams are coming off close losses in week two with the Jaguars defence keeping them in the hunt during rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew’s first start but ultimately losing and the Tennessee Titans lost to the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans’ loss actually could have been by more if the Colts’ Adam Vinatieri hadn’t had a horrible kicking game and this puts me in a conundrum. The Titans got a really strong win week one and are comfortably the better team in DVOA as well as ranking better in offence and defence. The problem is that their offence is struggling, in part because Marcus Mariotta’s reluctance to throw the ball down field and they are on the road.

My Thursday night rule didn’t help me at all last week and I’m wondering if a regular starting quarterback (albeit a troubled one) is enough of an advantage when combined with a better coached team to get the two point win needed to cover. It’s that final point that swayed me, for all that the talk of trades for Jalen Ramsey and dischord on the side lines might be slightly over played – but I’m going to back the more consistent team given they only need a field goal to win.

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

Week 3 Trivia

‘Well week 2 is in the can, normal service has been restored in the Picks and the trivia braces itself for a week in which the theme that is running may be identified.

But you will remember that I asked:

On their Monday Night Football debut in 1970, the Falcons lost 20-7 to whom?

Both Gee and Dan made valid attempts and I like Gee rightly identifying that it could be an expansion team. Dan went for a ‘hunting’ option and picked the Bears. However, Gee forgets that I am well trained in the art of the double-bluff so maybe I will become Dan’s Devious Dad when I tell you that it was Don Schula’s Dolphins who actually won a Monday night game on November 30.

So that means no points on either side this week. In addition, the theme was also left on the shelf – maybe this week!

Right, onto Week 3 the question is:

Who set a Ravens record by rushing for 227 yards in a single game, in 1998?

Let’s see what that brings – again there are 2 points on offer for this one.’

Quarterbacks: The Injured and The Young

18 Wednesday Sep 2019

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One of the things that makes the NFL such a spectacle week to week is that each team only plays sixteen games so every one matters and a teams prospects can change really quickly as several teams saw this weekend. Even a team with the roster depth of the Philadelphia Eagles can get undermined if too many injuries cluster around the same position, but I’ll cover that when I write up their game in the section, so let’s get started.

What I Saw

The week two Thursday night game saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers break my Thursday night line picking rule and win on the road against a Carolina Panthers team who have now fallen to 0-2. It was not a great spectacle that even started off looking strange as thanks to the weather the broadcasters only had two camera angles available and further lightening problems saw the game paused until it cleared. Neither team really shone, but for the Buccaneers Jameis Winston played without throwing an interception and didn’t get the Buccaneers into trouble while Cam Newton continued to look nothing like himself. It’s hard to evaluate from the outside what is going on with his shoulder and foot problems, but he is not effective at the moment and as good as Christian MaCaffrey has looked, he cannot carry the team when they are struggling in the red zone and Cam is missing so many consecutive passes. A trip to Arizona might help get the Panthers get back to winning ways, but they have not made things easy for themselves.

The final important part of this game to mention was that it was my first safety of the season – now this is actually the third of the year and I need to cover them properly at some point – but yes I am still tracking them! In this one the Bucs were pinned back to the three yard line by the Panthers punt team, and on second and eleven Luke Kuechly burst through the line to tackle Peyton Barber in the end zone and prevent him from getting the whole ball back across the goal line.

It was a slightly light week of watching for me thanks to work and things going on at the weekend so I only got through half of the coaching tape from the week one game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants but it was enough for me to be impressed. The Cowboys might have started off slowly, but their offence is transformed with the kind of pre-snap motion you see all over the league as well as plays where running backs split out, line up as receivers and run routes, which the Patriots used very effectively last season. The added benefit of this offensive transformation is the way Dak Prescott is playing. There were two throws that impressed me with their precision and timing, but Prescott has also amassed six hundred and seventy-four yards with seven touchdowns and only one interception in his opening two games. Right now the Cowboys look like one of the better teams in the NFL and if they can stay healthy then this could be a very good year indeed for them indeed.

I have watched two games from Sunday and I will start with the painful one from my perspective, as the San Francisco 49ers beat the Cincinnati Bengals very convincingly 41-17. The 49ers managed this whilst not so much looking spectacular on offence as benefitting from some truly awful tackling from the Bengals defence who looked so good in week one. The pass rush still looks good dangerous and it could just be a blip, but in a home opener it was a pretty dispiriting performance. The Bengals’ offence didn’t do much better barring a couple of flash plays. There are receivers in the passing game with John Ross looking good for a second week in a row and Tyler Boyd leading the team in receiving yards, but two one-hundred-yard receivers could not produce consistently enough for the Bengals to keep them in the game. More injuries hampered the offensive line and for a second week in a row the run game never got started. More worryingly the Bengals’ next game sees them travel to an unbeaten Buffalo Bill’s team who might not finish as the class of the AFC at the end of the season but look setup to be a difficult team for anyone to face. I have a nasty feeling I’ll be writing about an 0-3 team next week.

The final game I saw was the Atlanta Hawks hosting and beating the Philadelphia Eagles in a highly entertaining 24-20 contest. The Eagles really struggled with injuries in this game losing multiple offensive players early and Carson Wentz missed a series with a rib injury. It was an entertaining game but at times there was sloppy quarterback play for both teams and five interceptions were thrown between Wentz and Matt Ryan. That said the Falcons did flash on offence several times and sealed the game with a beautiful fourth and three play that saw the left tackle Jake Matthews get down field and block a poor DB to spring Julio Jones for fifty-four yards and the winning touchdown.

What I Heard

There has been much discussion of quarterbacks with two of the elite tier going down injured and the announcement finally coming that Eli Manning will be benched for Daniel Jones. Unusually, Sam Darnold did not even make the start of the week two game having been ruled out with mononucleosis, but has been cleared to return to the facility and is aiming for a week five return. What state the team will be in by then is anyone’s guess as poor Trevor Siemian was lost for the season to an ankle early in the game. The former Denver Broncos quarterback has played well when healthy but was not able to stay that way in Denver and on a one year deal this is pretty much the worse case for him.

The Cleveland Browns did what they should have done and won 23-3 but they are still sloppy. You also have to wonder about the game management when a running back comes out of the medical tent after a concussion check and gets thrown back into the game despite it being the fourth quarter with the game well and truly in hand.

What I Think

Whilst picking games on Sunday I mentioned that there would be more 1-1 teams than 2-0 or 0-2 teams, which is my way of reminding myself that we can’t take too much as set in stone from one game for each team. Unfortunately, I promptly forgot that as I actually made my selections and that partially accounts for me having such a poor week, but it also feels like that the ratio of records is different than in previous years. What I ought to do is go look at the numbers, but it’s my birthday tomorrow so things are a little all over the place and I don’t have time today, but I might well have a look at some point.

What I can tell you is that there are nine teams that have gone 2-0 to keep an unbeaten record and matching nine who have lost both of their games. Thanks to the Detroit Lions’ tie with the Arizona Cardinals we have a team with a 1-0-1 record and a corresponding 0-1-1 record while twelve teams have gone 1-1.

The teams that are really in trouble are those like Washington who have lost two divisional games already and the Pittsburgh Steelers who have lost both games and their starting quarterback. The New Orleans Saints have also lost a starting quarterback and will need Teddy Bridgwater to play well if they hope to keep themselves in contention until Drew Brees can return form surgery on his torn thumb ligament. There are some teams that may well right themselves from a solitary loss but I’m finding it hard to see turn arounds for the 0-2 teams which is a worry. The Steelers have tried to strengthen this year’s team despite Roethlisberger being done for the season with his elbow injury by trading next year’s first round pick for Dolphins safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, which is a brave move and if any team can turn it round it might be the Steelers but the defence needs to come together as well as the offence.

What I Know

This is going to be one of those ones that is going to haunt me for a while, as I know that Lamar Jackson is really good and he is going to torture my Bengals for a long time. He is rapidly becoming one of my favourites of the young quarterbacks and we are beginning to amass quite a list: Patrick Mahomes (who somehow is possibly playing better this year), Jackson, Jarred Goff who has been to a Super Bowl, Josh Allen has got the Bills to 2-0 whilst Kyler Murray has already show flashes in a couple of games. I may not be too keen on the way Baker Mayfield conducts himself at times but he was good enough to give the Browns hope whilst Sam Darnold has shown flashes and people were excited by Daniel Jones in pre-season despite him being picked too high. Still, I haven’t had to work hard to find this quarterbacks, and whilst I’m certainly not wish the end of the careers of the likes of Brees, Brady (the Patriots were scary good again on both offence and defence), or Roethlisberger – the quarterbacks that follow them are suddenly looking a lot better than it was only a couple of years ago despite the retirement of Andrew Luck and the stalling of careers like Derek Carr. I’ll finish by saying that Dak Prescott has looked really good through two games so one to keep an eye on as he approaches getting his second contact.

What I Hope

I want the Dolphins to do something in week three that brings Dan joy and the Bengals surprise us all with a win up in Buffalo. Failing that, I hope the Ravens @ Chiefs lives up to the expectations I have them because I think this has the potential to be the best game we’ve seen yet.

2019 Week Two Picks

15 Sunday Sep 2019

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I will have to rush through these a bit, but here are our trivia answers and the week two picks.

Our question from Dan’s Dad was;

‘On their Monday Night Football debut in 1970, the Falcons lost 20-7 to whom?’

Now, this could be anything, so I’m going to try to narrow the field. I believe the Falcons were an expansion team and I did a search and found that they were, in 1967 and there are three expansion teams that were created around the same time: Dolphins (66), Saints (67) and Bengals (68) but since Dan and my teams are both AFL and it would seem a little odd for Dan’s Dad to pick them so I’m going to plump for the Saints. Now it’s going to be something completely different or a devious double bluff and be one of our teams.

The theme that was mention still doesn’t seem that clear, if it’s not the centenary year, we’re still looking at a fairly early period so I’m going to plump for pre-merger football.

‘Well this really could be anyone. Absolutely anyone. I’m going to take Dad’s ‘Happy Hunting’ comment as a steer… first thought is ‘Bears’, but as Chicago was last week’s answer, I think I’ll go with the Cowboys. Complete guess though.

Link-wise, I’m no clearer. I’m not even going to make a guess this week, so here’s your chance to take an early lead, Gee!’

Bills @ Giants (+2.5)

This is a tight line that sees the home dog New York Giants trying to get their first win against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills look like they are going to be a tough team to face and managed to win a scrappy game last week. I want to take the points but this isn’t quite enough for me to do so as I do not trust the Giants one bit.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

49ers @ Bengals (-1.5)

This is one of those tricky early season lines where I thought the Bengals looked pretty good on the road in Seattle, and the 49ers win against the Buccaneers looks better now that the Bucs won their second game quite convincingly against the Panthers on Thursday night. This is a tough start for the 49ers with two road games, and whilst this can build togetherness I’m going to back my team for a second week in a row.

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Cowboys @ Washington (+5.5)

I’ve not watched the entire game, but I was impressed with the Dallas Cowboys offence that was running standard NFL pre-snap motion plus jet-sweeps and utilising flexed out running backs in stark contrast to their offence last year. Meanwhile Washington were competitive again before the Eagles turned things around against them in week one so it still hard to trust them as a team. This leaves me in a bind and I’m really not sure what to do so I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Chargers @ Lions (+2.5)

The Detroit Lions looked good for three quarters but couldn’t seal the game in the fourth quarter or over-time and this does not bode well. Nor does having to play an extra quarter of football. The LA Chargers are injured but got off to a winning start and I have lot more faith in them at the moment so that’s who I’m going to pick.

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Vikings @ Packers (-2.5)

This should be a fascinating game but is another stern test of the Packers new offence having faced the Bears in week one. The good news is that it looks like Aaron Rodgers has more support from his defence than he’s had in a long time, but the Vikings bring their run first attitude and tough defence to Lambeau in what should be a close game. This line gives me very little to work with and even last years game was a tie. I’m going to go with the Packers given they are at home and I’d pick Rodgers over Kirk Cousins but I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Colts @ Titans (-3.5)

The Indianapolis Colts gave a good account of themselves last week, but having lost narrowly to the Chargers in overtime now travel to the Tennessee Titans who shocked a lot of people by beating the Browns last week. It should not be that surprising that the Titans were competitive as they were in contention for the playoffs last season and I think they could well be again this year. In fact, coming off that strong win I fancy them to win this game but the line does make me pause but not enough to change my mind.

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Patriots @ Dolphins (+18.5)

I want to run a mile from this game. The Miami Dolphins got absolutely stuffed last week and it is hard to see the Patriots stuggling like they often seem to in their anual trip to face the Dolphins. I’m pretty certain this is the highest line I’ve ever seen, and whilst I can see the Patriots beating it, I just can’t bring myself to pick it. I would run away from this line if I was playing with money or try to tease the line down to something sensible but as I have to pick it I’m grabbing the home underdog of all home underdogs.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Cardinals @ Ravens (-13.5)

I do not expect the Baltimore Ravens to have the kind of fourth quarter mishaps that stopped the Lions putting away the Cardinals last week and so the question to me is can the Ravens beat the Cardinals by two touchdowns. The Ravens defence will be a very different beast to face for the Cardinals and I’m not sure that Kyler Murray will find the kind of rhythm he did late against the Lions. Still, this is a lot of points of I’m not quite confident enough that the Ravens will cover so I’m going to grab the points, which will feel like the smart play until the Ravens offence explodes again…

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Seahawks @ Steelers (-3.5)

This should be a really interesting game as the Steelers will be desperate to get back to winning ways having laid an egg in front of the nation against the Patriots last week. The Steelers do seem to be one of the teams who can be prone to those kind of mishaps and then bounce back but they welcome a Seahawks team who will be tough and competitive so with the Steelers needing to win by four to cover this line I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Jaguars @ Texans (-9.5)

The Houston Texans lost to a field goal in a remarkable game that featured multiple lead changes in the last few minutes and this week get the chance to bounce back against a Jacksonville Jaguars team reeling from a tough loss to the Chiefs that also cost them their new franchise quarterback to a broken collarbone. More worrying for me is the Jaguars’ defence that looked more like last year’s iteration rather than the all league unit it was two seasons ago. This is another game I’d stay away from by choice as this seems like a very high line even if the Jaguars are down to a backup quarterback. Still, I don’t trust the Texans either so I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chiefs @ Raiders (+9.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs ran out easy winners last week but lost Tyreek Hill to a nasty sounding clavicle injury and their defence still does not inspire confidence. This week they travel to face the Oakland Raiders who got a win on opening night, but at the cost of their first round draft pick. It’s not that I can’t see the Chiefs winning by ten, but given the changes and a seemingly tougher team this year I’m going to grab the points. This could be a big mistake but if the consensus spread I’m seeing is seven then this is enough above that to sway me.

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Bears @ Broncos (+1.5)

This is a real I do not know what to do game as whilst the Bears defence looked really good in week one, their offence did not fire at all whilst the Denver Broncos came out with an uninspiring offensive game and managed not to get a sack in their loss to the Raiders. The Bears also have extra rest having opened the season on Thursday night whilst the Broncos played late Monday but many teams struggle in the thin Denver air. That said, I have a lot of faith in Matt Nagy’s ability to scheme an offence and with the one unit I know I trust I’m going to nervously back the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Saints @ Rams (-2.5)

This is the other cracking game of the week that pits two of last seasons top teams against each other, both coming off week one wins. That said, both had to work hard to get those wins and there really doesn’t seem much between them. They are right next to each over in overall DVOA ranking. If this was later in the year I might factor in Drew Brees playing out of doors but in this early one I’m going to grab the points given to the future Hall of Fame quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Eagles @ Falcons (+1.5)

This is one of those games where there is a giant unknown factor for me as I don’t know if the Falcon’s performance last week was an aberration or if there are serious problems. One of their new offensive linemen is already injured and this week they face a Philadelphia Eagles team who took a little while to get going but in the end won fairly convincingly. I’m going to back that credibility even though there will be more teams with 1-1 records than 2-0 or 0-2.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Browns @ Jets (+2.5)

This Monday night game was supposed to highlight two up and coming franchises, only the Browns dropped the ball last week, losing to the Titans whilst the Jets not only lost to the Bills but Sam Darnold is out with mononucleosis and CJ Mosely is also out injured. Given how the Jets’ defence looked without their new leader Mosley last week and Darnold being out I have to back the Browns in this one but I don’t necessarily feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Competiton Thursday: 2019 Week 2

12 Thursday Sep 2019

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It’s already week two and our second competition Thursday looms so whilst it’s way too early to read much into anything here’s the results from last week and the selection for tonight’s game.

Gee:                Week    10-6                Overall   10-6
Dan:                Week    8-8                  Overall   8-8
Dan’s Dad:       Week    9-7                  Overall   9-7

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-6.5)

It may be a failure on my part that I don’t have hard rules for the Sunday/Monday games, but my maxim on Thursday nights is to pick the home team unless there are very good reasons not to and this week does not qualify for both football and number reasons.

I see the consensus line as ± 7 depending on which team you pick so this gives me a half point advantage through a key number if I go with the home team Panthers.

Additionally, whilst the Panthers lost a close home opener to the LA Rams in week one, the Buccaneers lost by two touchdowns to the 49ers in a game where Jameis Winston threw three interceptions. I have a lot of respect for Bruce Arians and it’s only one game so you cannot say that Arians can’t improve on Winston’s historically turnover heavy play, but we saw no evidence of it so far and with two teams desperate for the win I see the Panthers coming out on top at home. I am a little concerned given the amount of respect I have for the Bucs coaching staff, but whilst there are only five places between their overall DVOA rankings (technically VOA Football Outsiders don’t adjust for opponents until after week four), the difference in the actual DVOA value is 33.8% and that puts me back on the side of the Panthers in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Week 2 Trivia

‘Well the 2019/2020 season is well and truly underway with an opening week which lit a fire in many belly’s while having others fearing a long season with little to show for all the effort. I truly understand the feeling because as a QPR soccer supporter the biggest questions are around which team will turn up and ‘who thought this manager was worth having.

What is in no doubt though is the response to the trivia quiz. Last year it was week 3 before we saw a point on the board – and this time it’s 2 points each. I asked:

Prior to arriving in St. Louis in 1960, in which city did the Cardinals play their home games?

The Answer was Chicago

Founded in 1898 in Chicago, they had a number of name changes, including Morgan Athletic Club and Racine Normal’s. It was as the Chicago Cardinals, they won two NFL championships in 1925 and 1947. Despite those two successes, losing seasons were the norm for the Cardinals, along with low attendances, as they tried to compete with the crosstown Bears. With the new AFL looking to expand into St. Louis, the NFL and the team owners agreed a deal to move the team to the Missouri city.

The bonus ‘Theme’ was not won this week but picking a theme from one sample was hardly expected. My guess is that it will be identified in Week 4 ! Let’s see.

Week 2

Right, here we go again and for Week 2 my question is:

On their Monday Night Football debut in 1970, the Falcons lost 20-7 to whom?

This one also earns 2 points for a correct answer.

Happy Hunting’

Overreaction Week

11 Wednesday Sep 2019

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It’s that time of the season where we have one game of data and we overreact, so let’s see if we can find a nuanced view that sits somewhere between sixteen teams winning the Super Bowl and sixteen looking at the number one pick in next year’s draft.

What I Saw

The season opener that saw the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers was not exactly the explosive opener I’m sure the NFL would have wanted, but it does look as if the Packers are going to have a more balanced team this season. The Packers and their improved looking defence were able to hold the Bears to three points in a 10-3 win. The Packers needed this performance from their defence as the Bears defence looked as fearsome as year but I did also wonder if the lack of game time for their starters might be playing a factor in the Packers offensive output. This did make me wonder about the rest of the weekend’s games given the increased prevalence of teams resting their starters but it turns out there were plenty of teams whose offence hit the ground running. The Bears were not one of them though and there is still a worry about what the ceiling is for Mitch Trubisky. We should be wary of reading too much into one game but we’ll have an idea of just how representative this game was once we have some more to put things into context.

I only managed to watch a little of the last episode of Hard Knocks thanks to various things, so all I saw was the footage of Antonio Brown catching balls in practice before discovering that he was arguing with GM Mike Mayock having posted a fine letter on social media, and then getting cut having had his contract voided. He signed for the Patriots over the weekend and this morning’s headline is that Brown has been accused of rape by a former trainer. I really don’t know what to say other than that this is a deeply troubling accusation, that the courts need to carry out their due process, and at this point does Brown not have to go on the commissioner’s exempt list?

Moving awkwardly back to football I watched three further games this week.

The Cincinnati Bengals did much better than I feared as they ran out 20-21 losers in their trip to face the Seahawks in Seattle. However, the defence played well limiting the Seahawks to two-hundred and sixty-eight yards whilst containing Russell Wilson and sacking him four times. Meanwhile, for all the talk of establishing the run, Zac Taylor ran his offence according to what the Seahawks sent out, and Andy Dalton threw for a career high four-hundred and forty-one yards. The Seahawks showed their experience in winning ugly, but it was a promising start for the Bengals who now need to learn how to win games like this.

The Detroit Lions must still be kicking themselves over the road trip to Arizona as having established a 24-6 lead early in the fourth quarter they froze up as the Cardinals managed to stage a comeback and hold on for a tie in overtime. For most of this game the Lions were in control, but they got too conservative in the fourth quarter on offence and managed to call a time-out on a play that looked to have converted a third down, then ran an awful long shot play that didn’t work, before having the resulting punt blocked. The positive for the Lions is that rookie tight end TJ Hockenson set a rookie record of one hundred and thirty-one receiving yards as well as scoring a touchdown but they’ll need to clean up their game management and have a tough looking slate of games coming up. The Cardinals looked like they could have a long season but even though Kyler Murray looks like a small quarterback, his movement skills are impressive and he managed to avoid taking any big hits. Murray needs to learn to throw the ball away earlier in certain situations, but if he can find and maintain the kind of rhythm he found in the fourth quarter then he could justify the faith the Cardinals showed by taking him first overall.

The final game I saw this week as they New England Patriots sending out a warning to the rest of the league with a 33-3 demolition of the supposed fellow AFC challengers the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots coaching staff seem to absolutely have the number of the Steelers and worryingly for the league, looked sharp on both sides of the ball in their opening game. For a team that have often started slowly in recent years they played well and Tom Brady looked to have the deep ball in his armoury. As for the Steelers, they looked like they weren’t quite there on offence and the coaching staff need to find some way of stopping Brady shredding them, which to be fair is easier said than done. This was a tough way for any team to start the season so it’s not time to hit the panic button yet but the Steelers host the Seahawks in their first home game this week and they’ll want to get their season back on track quickly.

What I Heard

I head an interesting discussion with Warren Sharp on the Pro Football Doc podcast this week, where they discussed how teams seemed to be listening to the people who having looked at the numbers suggest throwing the ball on first down is a more efficient play call. Essentially the suggestion was that a team should call a throw on first down, but switch to a run play if the defence they faced or matchup favoured it, but otherwise passing on first down was more gave better results by trying to get a first down quicker than limiting the distance on third down. This increased uptake of passing first downs might be even more impressive if you remove the outliers like the Minnesota Vikings who only asked Kirk Cousins to throw ten times during the entire game this week.

I would need to see the maths on this to analyse this, but it feels logical to me. Particularly, when advocating that you still run if the situation is advantageous. For all the talk of balance and establishing the run, the Bengals threw a lot of passes against the Seahawks and it could well be that amongst the enlarged staff the Bengal’s new head coach asked for and got, are some more analytics people being listened to. I have thought for a while that it’s not so much that you have to establish the run, as maintain a credible threat so a defence can’t concentrate on stopping one thing. One to keep an eye on.

What I Think

It’s early in the season, so the crucial this is not to overreact. That said, I’m not sure that you can overreact as a Dolphins fan. I was chatting with Dan as the Ravens’ touchdowns kept coming up on Red Zone. The Cleveland Browns proved that an NBA style tank can work, and the coaches and players are absolutely trying to win but this is going to be a long difficult season for the Dolphins.

My suggestion was for Dan to adopt a fun NFC team to watch as he’s not going to stop supporting the Dolphins but for the sake of his sanity he needs something fun to watch on gameday. Here’s how bad it is, after five seasons of always picking the Dolphins to win in the pick’em competition he has announced he’s not doing it this year.

See what you’ve done Chris Grier!

What I Know

The top teams look pretty familiar and expected with the Patriots, Chiefs, Saints, and Rams all running out winners, although no one took that as literally as the Vikings did in week one.

There were plenty of surprises, although I wasn’t that shocked that the Browns struggled, but even I was not expecting them to give away that many penalties. The Titans were competitive last year and with Andrew Luck’s retirement they feel they should be in the mix for the AFC South. I may well have got the Falcons completely wrong, but I think I understand most of where I dropped points in the picks competition, although I clearly didn’t account for the Raiders maintaining their pre-season competitiveness into week one, but let I am not going to make any grand pronouncements until we have four games played.

I took a tenuous point lead in the pick’em competition despite my lack of preparation, but the regular season is marathon not a sprint. I am going to take a look at the Cowboys offence for my first coaching tape of the week as the discussion surrounding how it thrived despite Ezekiel Elliott’s rust interested me. I look forward to seeing how Dak Prescott played.

What I Hope

I am hoping to get through the coaching tape and picks despite being at a music festival this weekend (Hmmmh, I might need to find some extra hours from somewhere) and I hope all those teams who lost this week get a win on the board next week. However, it won’t happen as the season of hope is over – football is here and it is very much a results orientated business.

Still, good luck for the week two teams, I can see a number of teams (and fanbases) who will need it.

2019 Week One Picks

08 Sunday Sep 2019

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And so to a week of picks I feel singuarly unqualified to make, although in fairness week one is always tough with so little to go on other than instinct. This feels particularly true this year given how little most team played their starters in pre-season.

Still, running with the theme of unprepared here we go with the week one trivia question:

‘Prior to arriving in St. Louis in 1960, in which city did the Cardinals play their home games?’

Now, I’m fairly sure I remember this from an offseason feature about franchise records and so I’m going with them moving from Chicago to St Louis before becoming the Phoenix then Arizona Cardinals. I’m also going to take a guess at the them being the pre-merger teams given we are celebrating the NFL’s 100th season. Now for Dan’s answers:

‘Well, this couldn’t have been a better start for me as I immediately knew the answer to the trivia question!  The Cardinals moved from Chicago in 1960.

For the question link, it literally could be anything at this stage! I’m going to make a guess at the answers are all places that my dad has been to?’

Falcons @ Vikings (-4.5)

This is an intriguing matchup as the Vikings, who are always competitive under Mike Zimmer, host a Falcons team who did surprisingly well last season given how ravaged they were by injury. The Falcons have invested a lot in strengthening their offensive line and I’m expecting a close game. The Vikings have a good home field advantage, but I’m expecting more of a contest than this and so based purely on the number I’m backing the Falcons to keep it within five points.

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Bills @ Jets (-3.5)

This should be an interesting game that sees two division rivals looking to improve on last year’s showing and given the offseason moves I’m really not sure how these teams are going to matchup. I think that Sam Darnold is the more talented quarterback starter and the addition of Le’Veon Bell has the potential to really help Darnold. I am also looking forward to seeing what Adam Gase can do with him after the difficult years in Miami but the Bills have been frequently competitive under Sean McDermott and the extra half point has me nervous about the Jets. I don’t trust either team really so I’m once again basing this pick on the number.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Titans @ Browns (-5.5)

It is interesting that the consensus line I’m seeing matches the one ESPN have given us and it clearly reflects the positivity surrounded the Browns. Opening their season against the Titans at home they will be looking to break their fourteen game losing streak in opening games and I can definitely seem them doing so, but this feels like a high line to me. The Titans were nothing if not competitive last season and I expect them to be so again. I think the Browns have as much hope as I can remember and I could live to regret this, but I want to see it before I start given away these kinds of points, even if they are at home.

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Chiefs @ Jaguars (+3.5)

The Jaguars will be looking to get revenge from last season as they welcome the Chiefs in what should be a fascinating contest between the Chiefs high powered offence and the Jaguars defence. This may well be my first coaching tape matchup of the new season but right now we have a home underdog who only have to be within a field goal for me to get the point. I’m really not sure about this line and with no numbers to work on I’m falling back on the fact that head coach Andy Reid is spectacularly good when he’s had time to prepare and so despite being tempted by the home points, I’m nervously backing the Chiefs and their high-powered offence. This feels very wrong,..

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Rams @ Panthers (+2.5)

Much like the previous game, the Rams starting their season in Carolina sees one of last year’s high powered offences starting their season on the road, but whilst even on a down year the Jaguars’ defence was top ten by DVOA – the Panthers very much weren’t. The Panthers have not had the best preparation this off-season either with Cam Newton suffering a foot injury and having to manage his shoulder after another injury last season. This is another home underdog game where I should probably grab the points but I am not going to – I have a lot more faith in Sean McVay and the Rams right now to win by a field goal. I don’t like taking two road favorites in a row but these project to be some of the strongest teams in the league and so I’m picking like it.

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Ravens @ Dolphins (+4.5)

If there is one thing I know about the Dolphins it is that Dan will be blindly picking them even though they are clearly focusing on the future rather than this season. This is also the third home underdog in a row and I’m still not taking one of them. I’m sorry Dan, the points make me pause a little, but I think the Ravens are going to be very competitive and with the trading away of their talent last weekend I’m not sure even Fitzmagic can rescue a cover for the Dolphins.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Washington @ Eagles (-9.5)

This is the first of two giant lines and I can totally see why. The Eagles have one of the deepest looking rosters in the league thanks to their top-notch front office and a Super Bowl winning head coach, whilst Washington’s front office is questionable to say the least. There are some injuries amongst the Eagles starters that might make me pause, but the consensus line I’m seeing is actually higher than this line and so I’m once again backing a strong hunch.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Bengals @ Seahawks (-9.5)

So the Bengals have one of the toughest starts to the season I can remember, on the road in Seattle and with yet another potential starting lineman missing through injury they are starting Andre Smith at left tackle. I want to be full of hope, but I have a feeling this could be a rough start to the season. That said, this would be the fifth straight pick where I back the favourite and given how the Bengal’s move the ball in the offseason and Russell Wilson losing his favourite target in Doug Baldwin, I’m going to back the Bengals to keep this within ten. If I can’t have hope in the first game of the season, when can I?

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Colts @ Chargers (-2.5)

I never know how to treat the Chargers given their unusual home field situation as it definitely feels they have lost out to the Rams in the battle for LA fans . They go into this game as favourites despite the injuries and likely because of Luck’s retirement and I don’t have a strong feeling on how the Colts will cope. The good news is that Jacoby Brissett has taken first team snaps all pre-season and the Colts are perhaps the healthier team but I’m going to stick with the home team as they only need a field goal to cover. I’m just worried this is a reflex pick because of how good Philip Rivers is.

Gee’s Pick:         Chargers
Dan’s Pick:        Chargers

Giants @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have Ezekial Elliott in the fold but the Giants have their own star running back. However, the Cowboys have their strong offensive line and an improving defence to rely on whilst the Giants are very much in transition. However, this is a big line and I do wonder if big blue might be a bit more competitive than this given the rust that Elliott might have with his lack of off-season work. I’m basing this pick purely off the number as I need to see the Cowboy justify a choice back them to win by eight before I am going to do it – I don’t have that much faith Jason Garrett.

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Lions @ Cardinals (+2.5)

And here is the first game where I throw up my hands and state I don’t know what to do. We haven’t seen what Kliff Kingsbury has in store for his offence and this could well be a game where he can spring a surprise thanks to the lack of tape. They host a Lions team who struggled last season and I’m not sure they have made the moves in the off-season to turn things around. This is my last chance to pick a home underdog and given that I have no earthly clue what is likely to happen in this game that is what I am going to do…

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

49ers @ Buccaneers (-1.5)

I am interested in every game this week, but given the soft spot I have for Bruce Arians I am really curious about what he can do with his new team and Jameis Winston. The Buccaneers start the season by hosting a 49ers team who still don’t really know if the player they are paying like a franchise quarterback is one, and Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off a torn ACL that cost him most of last season. I’m really not sure how this game is going to play out and that is what worries me. Still, the Football Outsiders playoff odds predicts the 49ers to be 1.4 games better than the Buccaneers and this line is half a point higher than the consensus so I’m going with the 49ers.

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Steelers @ Patriots (-6.5)

Now this should be fascinating match-up as the Steelers roll into New England to take on the Super Bowl champion Patriots. The Steelers will be hoping that the removal of two of their killer Bs will improve their team through the subtraction of their distractions, but they go into this game with a 2-6 record over the last ten years against the Patriots. If there is a good time to catch the Patriots though it is at the start of the season, and the Pats do have problems coming into the season thanks to injuries on the offensive line. I think come the end of the year the Patriots will be right up with the best teams as usual but they deliberately start the season slow, have injuries, and even though Roethlisberger’s road from is questionable this feels like too many points to be giving the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Texans @ Saints (-6.5)

The first Monday Night Football game of the seasons sees the Houston Texans travel to take on the New Orleans Saints. Their has been a lot of roster movement in the last week or so for the Texans and there only a few places tougher to go to in the league than the Superdome. The Saints are all in for another year and my only concern is the way Drew Brees struggled to throw the ball deep in the second half of last season, yet the Saints were close to getting to the Super Bowl and look to be in the mix again this year. As much as I love JJ Watt, the Texans do not convince me so whilst this is a lot points I’m still leaning to the Saints and hope that I’m not underestimating the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Broncos @ Raiders (-2.5)

The second Monday night game of the week sees the Oakland Raiders welcome the Denver Broncos and I really don’t know what to do. The Raiders have not convinced under Jon Gruden one bit and the Denver Broncos are relying on Joe Flacco to lead the offence. I like the hire of Vic Fangio for the Broncos but this feels a little like the meeting of the also rans of the AFC West. The presence of Von Miller gives the Broncos possibly the biggest difference maker but I don’t have strong lean either way. I don’t like the idea of giving away points picking the Raiders so that will have to do as the final deciding factor in this one. Oh to have some numbers to work with in the coming weeks!

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos