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The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

The Wrong Football

Tag Archives: Mike Mayock

The Disappointed Eighteen – AFC Edition

07 Thursday Jan 2021

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Adam Gase, Anthony Lynn, Bill Belichick, Bill O'Brien, Brian Flores, Cam Newton, Carl Lawson, Cincinnati Bengals, Darrin Simmons, Dave Caldwell, DeAndre Hopkins, Denver Broncos, Deshaun Watson, Disappointed Eighteen, Doug Marrone, Drew Lock, Gregg Williams, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jessie Bates III, JJ Watt, Joe Burrow, Joe Douglas, John Elway, Jon Gruden, Justin Herbert, LA Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, Mark Davis, Marvin Lewis, Miami Dolphins, Mike Maccagnan, Mike Mayock, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, Nick Caserio, Paul Guenther, Regular Season, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Darnold, Tom Brady, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyrod Taylor, Vic Fangio, Von Miller, Zac Taylor

It is always a strange time of year for NFL fans as the excitement regarding the play-offs is tempered by whether you team is directly involved and how you feel about the state of the franchise you support. There is also the rolling coverage of the teams changing GMs and coaching staff, which is getting a head start this year as the NFL has changed rules allowing teams to start interviews earlier under certain conditions.

Still the countdown of disappointed teams has well and truly begun where the number will eventually reach thirty-one, but for now let’s have a look at the disappointed eighteen who didn’t make the play-offs.

In an effort to make life easier for myself I will split these run downs by conference and so we start with the AFC and I’ll work in ascending number of wins and descending draft order.

I am taking my cap numbers for next season from spotrac.com and the ranking/numbers were right at time of posting with an assumed team salary cap of $175 million.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)

The Jaguars set a franchise record for losing this season with their solitary win in the opening week being the lowest total ever. They were already committed to making changes having fired GM Dave Caldwell when they fell to 1-10 for the season and head coach Doug Marrone followed once the regular season was completed. The good news for whoever takes control of this franchise is that they both have the number one pick in the draft and are projected to have the most cap space available in 2021. There is no shortage of things that need addressing given the only phase of the game the Jaguars were near average in was special teams, but with their choice of quarterbacks in the draft and money to make sensible signings the Jaguars could make a swift return to contention. The Jaguars were nothing if not patient with Caldwell so this could well be one of the most promising teams to join for both GM and head coaches this off-season, but all the fans will care about is someone finally establishing a franchise identity and building a team who can win regularly as the Jags have had one winning season in the last thirteen and only three of those seasons did they avoid a double-digit amount of games. There is a lot of work left to do in Jacksonville if they want to get back to the play-offs.

New York Jets (2-14)

The byword for incompetence for much of the NFL 2020 season, the Jets are such bad losers than in the race for the number one draft pick they came second. Having fired defensive coordinator Gregg Williams (who we should remember was pushed onto their head coach as a condition of him being appointed) in December when an all-out blitz cost them a win against the Raiders, it surprised literally no one who follows the NFL that Adam Gase was fired shortly after the Jets lost against the Patriots to finish a painful season. There was really no-one left for Gase to blame, particularly as within six months of him being hired as head coach, he had forced out GM Mike Maccagnan who hired him only to be fired 18 months later by Maccagnan’s successor Joe Douglas. In his two years with the Jets Gase failed to spark the offence or improve young quarterback Sam Darnold who might still have a career in the NFL but looks like he will be moving to a new franchise for his fourth season given that the Jets are still well placed to take a quarterback high in the draft. The Jets stand behind only the Jaguars for cap space in 2012 and so could also be well placed for recovery, but much like the Jaguars, with little recent history of success on the field the Jets need to build a new culture and get the front office working in lock step with whoever the new coach is to turn things around.

Houston Texans (4-12)

The Texans only managed four wins this season despite having a franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson who threw for 4823 yards and thirty-three touchdowns to seven interceptions, all having lost his favourite receiver DeAndre Hopkins in a bad trade with the Arizona Cardinals. The decisions made by Bill O’Brien as the GM used up future resources to manage the franchise and having amassed so much power, when the season started with four consecutive losses there was no one else to blame and O’Brien was fired. To be fair, it was a tough open to the season with visits to the Chiefs and Steelers sandwiching their game against the Ravens, but when they lost to a then 0-3 Vikings team the decision was made to fire O’Brien. In recent weeks we have had pretty strong statements of discontent from both JJ Watt and Watson, but having been blocked from talking to Patriots’ director of personnel Nick Caserio in 2019, the Texans have an agreement in place to hire him as their new GM. He will join the extensive search committee to find a new head coach as they seek to turn round a team that was plain bad on defence, but with several picks traded away by O’Brien including this year’s third overall pick to the Dolphins this likely not a quick fix. Apart from the draft capital, the Texans are projected to be twenty-sixth in the league for cap space in 2021 with them twenty million dollars over the projected cap so there is going to be at least a year of pain as they work their way back from that. If they hope to compete with the Colts and Titans any time soon they will need to lay a solid foundation this off-season but it will not be easy.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)

Zac Taylor’s doubling of the Bengals win total in his second season, including his first road win, was apparently enough to secure him a third season as head coach but I have to think that another failure to develop the offence to a rank higher than late twenties by DVOA won’t be enough to a fourth. The failure on offence is partly down to the loss of rookie quarterback Joe Burrow to injury, but he was covering up a multitude of sins on the offensive line, which eventually led to him being hit enough that he was lost for the season. This rests on the should of Taylor and his coaching staff and the one top ten phase of the game the Bengals had this season was special teams, and Taylor inherited Darrin Simmons from Marvin Lewis’ staff having been a fixture in Cincinnati since 2003. Certainly the defence really wasn’t much better than the offence despite defensive end Carl Lawson and safety Jessie Bates being right up there with any other players at their position. To be fair, the reports from the locker room have been supportive and there are other young players who look promising, but we are relying on development in areas in the third year that don’t seem to have progress in the first two. The Bengals have a conservative draft and develop programme historically, although they splashed some cash last off-season but saw most of those acquisitions injured. There are no problems with cap space, the Bengals have the sixth most free in 2021 and usually draft well, but I find it hard to see the next big step forward with things remaining the same. I hope to be proved wrong and this could be a more traditional re-build, but Marvin Lewis turned round a franchise in his time, even if he couldn’t get a play-off win, but the Bengals seem to have returned to their poor pre-Lewis ways since his leaving and with five losing seasons since the often-mentioned (if only by me) 2015 team that looked so promising, the Bengals feel like a franchise who have lost their way. I really hope they find it next year, but I have to be honest, I have my doubts…

Denver Broncos (5-11)

I feel like the Denver Broncos slipped under my radar a little this season. They managed to win five games with an offence that ranked thirtieth out of thirty-two teams by DVOA with quarterback Drew Lock missing three of their games but not exactly convincing in the other thirteen. However, whilst it was always going to be tough for them on defence when they lost veteran pass rusher Von Miller for the season before it had even started, a ranking of thirteenth by DVOA is at least respectable. The worry must be that the Broncos have not been to the play-offs since they won Super Bowl fifty and GM John Elway, despite being a Broncos legend, has not been able to find a franchise quarterback to follow Peyton Manning. Elway does seem to be recognising problems and is planning to step away from the day to day running of the franchise with the plan of hiring a GM with full autonomy over player personnel. The Broncos are at least projected to have space under next season’s cap and Lock has only finished his second season so they don’t have any big contract decisions to make this year on that front, but I’m not sure they have their franchise quarterback either and from the quotes that head coach Vic Fangio made about Lock’s potential as a franchise QB and the work Lock still has to do, it would not be a surprise to see someone brought in to challenge or mentor Lock in the QB room next season. I am not sure I am expecting massive changes this off-season, but a new direction seems like a good idea given five seasons of losing and head coach Vic Fangio is likely to need to find success going into his third season if he wants keep his job. Patience is not a virtue often utilised in the NFL, and whilst things can turn around more quickly in the modern NFL, for the Broncos a lot will rest on what they do at GM and how well that hire meshes with Fangio.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)

The LA Chargers finished an almost surprising 7-9 thanks to a strong four-win finish, but that was not enough to save head coach Anthony Lynn’s job. The last two seasons of his four years with the franchise yielded two losing seasons and in his lsat Lynn managed the transition from one franchise quarterback to another, but it was the manner of the losing that would have worried those in charge. I don’t think I have heard such positive views of a head coach as a man, something last year’s Hard Knocks series only served to highlight, coupled with such heavy criticism of in game management and general approach to offence. Lynn’s job with the Chargers was never easy as this is the first season where the Chargers had their own stadium in LA (all be it them renting from the Rams) and Lynn managed the transition to Los Angeles well, but with Justin Herbert looking like the rookie of the year having been thrown into the starting line-up in week two after Tyrod Taylor suffered a collapsed lung after a nerve block procedure went wrong the decision was made to change course. With Herbert looking like a franchise quarterback already, plenty of other talent spread around the rest of the roster, and over $20 million in cap space next season the Chargers should bounce back strongly even if they do share a division with the Chiefs. However, they will need to get their next coaching hire right (spotting a pattern here?) to pull this off. The Chargers of recent years have had a reputation for often losing close games so it might not take that much to turn things round, but we shall just have to see how they choose to go about it.

New England Patriots (7-9)

The Patriots’ season sputtered before it even began as they went into their pre-season with the most Covid-19 opt-outs in the league and when combined with the departure of Tom Brady after twenty seasons with the Pats in the off-season, you could see how they might struggle and struggle they did. The late signing of Cam Newton was a canny move that was a gamble for both parties that didn’t work out for player or team, and whilst the Patriots’ staff were effusive in their praise of Newton’s leadership and effort, he was not able to turn that into success throwing the ball. Yes he was still an effective running quarterback and there are limitations in the Patriots skill positions, but the truth is he simply could not complete enough passes for the team to truly compete. We had the strange situation where Bill Belichick, the ultimate no nonsense pragmatist, has been making excuses about this season was the payoff for the investment they put into maximising their chances with Brady. There are some facts that back up this position, the Pats go into next season with nearly $60 million in cap space but their record in drafts over recent years has not been stellar (which makes the hiring away of Nick Caserio to the Texans interesting) but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Belichick and the staff get it right with more room to manoeuvre. However, they will need to find a solution at quarterback and it seems like that answer is not currently on the roster and their path to getting one is unlikely through the fifteenth pick in the draft. I am not prepared to bet against one of the most successful head coaches in NFL history for long, and while I don’t know whether next season will see a turnaround, you wouldn’t bet against Belichick managing it before too long.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)

The Raiders first season in Las Vegas was rolling towards the play-offs through the first ten weeks of the season, but the last seven weeks only added two more wins to their week ten 6-3 record that fell to 8-8 by the end of the 2020 campaign. I wrote before the season about my concerns regarding the defence and their performance was still problematic and cost Paul Guenther his job as coordinator during the season. There was a marginal improvement to a ranking of twenty-eighth by DVOA but that was not enough for the Raiders to finally achieve a winning record in Jon Gruden’s third season as head coach. When a head coach gets a ten-year contract then they have a certain amount of job security, but there surely has to be some very pointed questions in private this off-season and a lot of pressure on Gruden and GM Mike Mayock to get the coaching hires on the defensive side of the ball right. I don’t know when owner Mark Davis’ patience might run out, but for Gruden to get the Raiders where they want to be he has to be able to serve the whole team going forward and not just the offence. However, the Raiders are currently $17 million over the 2021 salary cap so the roster management could be distinctly tricky this off-season and I have to wonder if Gruden can get this to team to where he wants to next year.

Miami Dolphins (10-6)

Fans of the Dolphins are probably as disappointed as any fanbase this week given that their team won ten games in the first year of the new expanded play-off format and still didn’t make get in. Their wait to make the play-offs has now extended to five seasons, but once the initial sting wears off there is still a lot to be hopeful about. Brian Flores impressed in his first season, managing five wins with a roster that was in the middle of a massive overhaul and in 2020 he followed that up by doubling the number of wins and mounting a serious push for the play-offs. The way that push ended in Buffalo is definitely a concern, but under the circumstances with the Bills playing well and Tua Tagovailoa unable to keep up with the Bills’ high flying offence with Ryan Fitzpatrick unavailable to play his QB reliever role due to Covid-19 it is at least partly understandable. There are concerns about Tagovailoa’s ability to push the ball down field, but we are only nine games into his career and he had to deal with shortened pre-season where he was still recovering from the hip injury that ended his college career so there is still plenty of potential to grow. For the first time in years it feels like the Dolphins’ front office and coach are working in lock step, the Dolphins go into next season with $25 million in cap space and as I mentioned earlier, have the Texans’ third overall pick in the draft. If they are that worried about Tagovailoa they could easily pick a quarterback, and I certainly think they were keen to get a good look at him this season, but if they have faith in their previous decision they should have their choice of the best players at the top of the draft. Thanks to injury they were having a lot of problems with their skills position late in the season but with an upgrade there and a new offensive coordinator the Dolphins look set to challenge in the AFC East for years to come. I can’t say if they will win a game in the post-season next year or even make the play-offs, but I absolutely expect them to compete for it and I think they are more likely to make the play-offs than not. That’s probably as much as any fan of these nine teams can hope for.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average, and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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The End of the 2019 Regular Season

01 Wednesday Jan 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Adam Gase, Adam Vinatieri, AFC West, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Anthony Lynn, Baker Mayfield, Ben Roethlisberger, Brian Flores, Carson Wentz, Chris Ballard, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Daniel Jones, Dave Caldwell, Dean Spanos, Denver Broncos, Derek Carr, Disappointed Twenty, Doug Marrone, Drew Lock, Eric Rowe, Frank Reich, Freddie Kitchens, Gardner Minshew III, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Haslam, Joe Burrow, John Dorsey, Jon Gruden, Josh Jacobs, LA Chargers, Las Vegas, London, Marshawn Lynch, Miami Dolphins, Mike Mayock, Mike Tomlin, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Philip Rivers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Regular Season, Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, San Francisco 49ers, Saquon Barkley, Seattle Seahawks, Stephon Gilmore, Tennessee Titans, Tom Brady, Tom Coughlin, Vic Fangio, Zac Taylor

So here we are at the end of the regular season, but the start of playoffs and a new decade. I’m going to do a recap of the games I watched in week seventeen before I run through the AFC side of the Disappointed Twenty, and will follow up tomorrow with the NFC side.

What I Saw

The first game I watched in week seventeen had no bearing on the playoffs or draft position, but it still made me happy as the Cincinnati Bengals secured only their second win of the season as they beat the Cleveland Browns in a relatively comfortable manner. The Bengals pass rush was able to harass Baker Mayfield all game and got six sacks as well as picking him off three times. I’ll be talking about both of these teams in my roundup so only thing I will add here is that I was surprisingly happy about this win, even if it was ultimately meaningless in the wider scheme of things.

Whilst the Bengals win had no real affect on things, one of the other TWF teams had a definitive effect on the playoffs even thought they will not be playing either. For a bad season in terms of results, there has been much to be cheered about this season for a Miami Dolphins team, who got more wins that you are supposed to whilst rebooting your roster and look to have found a really good head coach who cemented this view with a win against the New England Patriots that cost their divisional foes a bye week and throws them into an eminently losable match-up against the Tennessee Titans next week. The problems that have plagued the Patriots offence resurfaced this week, but in addition Tom Brady threw a horrid pick-six where he sailed a ball between two receivers that Eric Rowe grabbed and took gratefully into the end zone. If that wasn’t bad enough, Stephon Gilmore did not look at all like the shutdown corner he has looked like for most of the season and the Pats’ defence did not look itself. I’m still not going to declare the Patriots done until I’ve seen them eliminated, but I can’t remember a recent time where the Pats looked this vulnerable this late in the season.

There were two divisions up for grabs in week seventeen and the first of them to be won saw the Philadelphia Eagles finish their mission impossible with four straight wins despite the injuries that plagued them all season. Their final victim were the New York Giants who offered up some glimpses of what Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley might be able to achieve between them as the Giants kept the game close into the fourth quarter, helped by an impressive sixty-eight yard touchdown run from Barkley, but whilst Jones managed to outgain the Eagles’ Carson Wentz through the air, he could not match his care with the ball and the Eagles finished strongly to win 34-17.

The final game of the regular season was to decide the AFC West as the Seattle Seahawks hosted the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers had dipped in form thanks to injury but looked to be getting back to some of their mid-season form in recent weeks and got out to a strong start in this one, building a thirteen point lead that should have been more whilst holding the Seahawks scoreless. The Seahawks have injury problems of their own, hence the signing of Marshawn Lynch out of retirement, who provoked a huge response from the Seattle crowd despite not producing that many yards but did get a touchdown. However, Russel Wilson was able to work out the 49ers defence in the second half and mount a comeback that very easily could have produced the win were it not for a combination of refereeing and the return of late game mismanagement. The Seahawks had three downs on the one-yard line to get the winning touchdown, or would have if they had not been called for delay of game and then failed to get in from the five. The result means the Seahawks travel to face the Eagles and could very well face the 49ers again before the end of the playoffs.

The Disappointed Twenty: AFC Edition

So here is my quick run through the AFC teams who missed out on the playoffs.

The New York Jets finished 7-9, despite losing their starting quarterback to mono and so you could say that this was not a bad year. The problem is that I am not convinced by Adam Gase as a head coach these days, but whilst I don’t think he has done anything to lose his job, a lot will be riding on next season.

I have already mentioned that the Dolphins looked to have found a really good head coach in Brian Flores, and with the influx of picks coming in the next couple of years things could really take off for the Dolphins. They need to find a franchise quarterback, and Dan would very much like them to re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick as a mentor/capable backup, but if the Dolphins get the picks right they could be peaking as the Patriots enter into a new phase of the franchise.

Given the Pittsburgh Steelers lost their franchise quarterback to injury in week two, their 8-8 record is very creditable, and Mike Tomlin answered those who suggested that the Steelers might need to make a change at head coach. However, now having fixed the defence it is the offence that needs attention now, and given this franchise’s record of finding receivers in recent years you would like to think this is possible.  However, the Steelers are another franchise who will need a new quarterback sooner than later, but we shall have to see if Ben Roethlisberger has another trip to the playoffs in him.

The Cleveland Browns had a horrible year full of dysfunction and disappointment that ended with the firing of both Freddie Kitchens and GM John Dorsey. I wrote that there were warning signs before the season, and having created a roster full of character issues and not been prepared to change his role after a discussion with owner Jimmy Haslam, Dorsey lost his job for it. There is a lot to put right in Cleveland and it feels like they need a coach capable of building a winning culture at the Browns and sorting out Baker Mayfield. Given their track record it’s hard to have faith that Haslam will get this decision right but the fans in Cleveland definitely deserve better.

The results for the Bengals may have been hugely disappointed, but the culture in Cincinnati certainly seemed to hold up through the season and the players were saying good things about Zac Taylor. It looks like Joe Burrow is going to be the Bengals selection with the first overall pick, which is exciting because of both the player he is and the person he seems to be (Heisman Speech). I always hoped that Andy Dalton would get the right team to prove people wrong as under the right circumstances he was a really good quarterback (that 2015 team will forever haunt me because of his injury) and I hope he gets to enjoy success going forward, but I am ready for a new leader and hopefully a better team. It will need to be given the how good the Ravens are likely to be for years to come.

The Indianapolis Colts had their plans for the season thrown into the air with Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement, but further burnished the credentials of head coach Frank Reich by going 7-9 with Jacoby Brissett as quarterback and with some different injury luck could have won more game. I wonder if they will be looking at quarterbacks in the off-season, but given their franchise progress over the last couple of years under GM Chris Ballard I see them being competitive again next season. That said, the other reason they struggled this year was that after a Hall of Fame career, kicker Adam Vinatieri had a bad year before having knee surgery that ended his season. It’s hard to see a forty-seven year old man coming back next season, but you would have said that for a number of seasons before now and it has been an incredibly impressive career that should not tarnished by a difficult season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a disappointing year where a sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew outplayed their prime off-season signing at quarterback. The Jaguars have provided a structural conundrum for a while and really need to establish an identity, but it is interesting that after a second season of missing the playoffs they are keeping GM Dave Caldwell and head coach Doug Marrone in place having fired Tom Coughlin once the players’ union announced that the Jaguars accounted for 25% of all their filed grievances. I’m really not sure what to expect next season as there are a lot of questions surrounding their roster and we shall have to see if they can get everyone pointed in the right direction next season.

The Denver Broncos finished the season with four wins out of five and in Drew Lock may well have finally found a quarterback to follow Peyton Manning. It may have taken some time for Vic Fangio to get things working for the Broncos in his first year, but if they can build on their late season success in the off-season then the Broncos can be back in contention next season.

The last year of the Raiders playing in Oakland saw them improve by three wins from 2018, but Jon Gruden still finished with a losing record and questions will continue to be asked about quarterback Derek Carr. The Raiders lost their first round safety early in the season, but rookie running back Josh Jacobs established himself as franchise back until he was injured and if the Raiders can continue to add talent they can compete for the playoffs in their first season in Las Vegas. There’s still something that is making me hesitate to say they will do this, but if Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden have a second good off-season and don’t have the distractions of Antonio Brown they could easily do so.

It felt like Philip Rivers was saying goodbye after the LA Chargers last game, and the franchise seems to be in flux having failed to build on last year’s success, hampered again by injuries and seeming short on fans in LA. I don’t know what is going to happen to this franchise in the off-season, head coach Anthony Lynn seems safe but the Chargers need a new quarterback and something to bring the fans in. To be honest I’m not sure they are going to make a success of life in LA and whilst I think a possible move to London is a non-story (as their owner colourfuly explained earlier this year), I do think they could rue the day they left San Diego, even if Dean Spanos is unlikely to admit it.

That’s it for today’s post – check back tomorrow for a round up of the NFC teams as Competition Thursday swings into gear.

Overreaction Week

11 Wednesday Sep 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Antonio Brown, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Chris Grier, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Ezekiel Elliott, FishTank, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, LA Rams, Miami Dolphins, Mike Mayock, Minnesota Vikings, Mitch Trubisky, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, TJ Hockenson, Tom Brady, Warren Sharp, Zac Taylor

It’s that time of the season where we have one game of data and we overreact, so let’s see if we can find a nuanced view that sits somewhere between sixteen teams winning the Super Bowl and sixteen looking at the number one pick in next year’s draft.

What I Saw

The season opener that saw the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers was not exactly the explosive opener I’m sure the NFL would have wanted, but it does look as if the Packers are going to have a more balanced team this season. The Packers and their improved looking defence were able to hold the Bears to three points in a 10-3 win. The Packers needed this performance from their defence as the Bears defence looked as fearsome as year but I did also wonder if the lack of game time for their starters might be playing a factor in the Packers offensive output. This did make me wonder about the rest of the weekend’s games given the increased prevalence of teams resting their starters but it turns out there were plenty of teams whose offence hit the ground running. The Bears were not one of them though and there is still a worry about what the ceiling is for Mitch Trubisky. We should be wary of reading too much into one game but we’ll have an idea of just how representative this game was once we have some more to put things into context.

I only managed to watch a little of the last episode of Hard Knocks thanks to various things, so all I saw was the footage of Antonio Brown catching balls in practice before discovering that he was arguing with GM Mike Mayock having posted a fine letter on social media, and then getting cut having had his contract voided. He signed for the Patriots over the weekend and this morning’s headline is that Brown has been accused of rape by a former trainer. I really don’t know what to say other than that this is a deeply troubling accusation, that the courts need to carry out their due process, and at this point does Brown not have to go on the commissioner’s exempt list?

Moving awkwardly back to football I watched three further games this week.

The Cincinnati Bengals did much better than I feared as they ran out 20-21 losers in their trip to face the Seahawks in Seattle. However, the defence played well limiting the Seahawks to two-hundred and sixty-eight yards whilst containing Russell Wilson and sacking him four times. Meanwhile, for all the talk of establishing the run, Zac Taylor ran his offence according to what the Seahawks sent out, and Andy Dalton threw for a career high four-hundred and forty-one yards. The Seahawks showed their experience in winning ugly, but it was a promising start for the Bengals who now need to learn how to win games like this.

The Detroit Lions must still be kicking themselves over the road trip to Arizona as having established a 24-6 lead early in the fourth quarter they froze up as the Cardinals managed to stage a comeback and hold on for a tie in overtime. For most of this game the Lions were in control, but they got too conservative in the fourth quarter on offence and managed to call a time-out on a play that looked to have converted a third down, then ran an awful long shot play that didn’t work, before having the resulting punt blocked. The positive for the Lions is that rookie tight end TJ Hockenson set a rookie record of one hundred and thirty-one receiving yards as well as scoring a touchdown but they’ll need to clean up their game management and have a tough looking slate of games coming up. The Cardinals looked like they could have a long season but even though Kyler Murray looks like a small quarterback, his movement skills are impressive and he managed to avoid taking any big hits. Murray needs to learn to throw the ball away earlier in certain situations, but if he can find and maintain the kind of rhythm he found in the fourth quarter then he could justify the faith the Cardinals showed by taking him first overall.

The final game I saw this week as they New England Patriots sending out a warning to the rest of the league with a 33-3 demolition of the supposed fellow AFC challengers the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots coaching staff seem to absolutely have the number of the Steelers and worryingly for the league, looked sharp on both sides of the ball in their opening game. For a team that have often started slowly in recent years they played well and Tom Brady looked to have the deep ball in his armoury. As for the Steelers, they looked like they weren’t quite there on offence and the coaching staff need to find some way of stopping Brady shredding them, which to be fair is easier said than done. This was a tough way for any team to start the season so it’s not time to hit the panic button yet but the Steelers host the Seahawks in their first home game this week and they’ll want to get their season back on track quickly.

What I Heard

I head an interesting discussion with Warren Sharp on the Pro Football Doc podcast this week, where they discussed how teams seemed to be listening to the people who having looked at the numbers suggest throwing the ball on first down is a more efficient play call. Essentially the suggestion was that a team should call a throw on first down, but switch to a run play if the defence they faced or matchup favoured it, but otherwise passing on first down was more gave better results by trying to get a first down quicker than limiting the distance on third down. This increased uptake of passing first downs might be even more impressive if you remove the outliers like the Minnesota Vikings who only asked Kirk Cousins to throw ten times during the entire game this week.

I would need to see the maths on this to analyse this, but it feels logical to me. Particularly, when advocating that you still run if the situation is advantageous. For all the talk of balance and establishing the run, the Bengals threw a lot of passes against the Seahawks and it could well be that amongst the enlarged staff the Bengal’s new head coach asked for and got, are some more analytics people being listened to. I have thought for a while that it’s not so much that you have to establish the run, as maintain a credible threat so a defence can’t concentrate on stopping one thing. One to keep an eye on.

What I Think

It’s early in the season, so the crucial this is not to overreact. That said, I’m not sure that you can overreact as a Dolphins fan. I was chatting with Dan as the Ravens’ touchdowns kept coming up on Red Zone. The Cleveland Browns proved that an NBA style tank can work, and the coaches and players are absolutely trying to win but this is going to be a long difficult season for the Dolphins.

My suggestion was for Dan to adopt a fun NFC team to watch as he’s not going to stop supporting the Dolphins but for the sake of his sanity he needs something fun to watch on gameday. Here’s how bad it is, after five seasons of always picking the Dolphins to win in the pick’em competition he has announced he’s not doing it this year.

See what you’ve done Chris Grier!

What I Know

The top teams look pretty familiar and expected with the Patriots, Chiefs, Saints, and Rams all running out winners, although no one took that as literally as the Vikings did in week one.

There were plenty of surprises, although I wasn’t that shocked that the Browns struggled, but even I was not expecting them to give away that many penalties. The Titans were competitive last year and with Andrew Luck’s retirement they feel they should be in the mix for the AFC South. I may well have got the Falcons completely wrong, but I think I understand most of where I dropped points in the picks competition, although I clearly didn’t account for the Raiders maintaining their pre-season competitiveness into week one, but let I am not going to make any grand pronouncements until we have four games played.

I took a tenuous point lead in the pick’em competition despite my lack of preparation, but the regular season is marathon not a sprint. I am going to take a look at the Cowboys offence for my first coaching tape of the week as the discussion surrounding how it thrived despite Ezekiel Elliott’s rust interested me. I look forward to seeing how Dak Prescott played.

What I Hope

I am hoping to get through the coaching tape and picks despite being at a music festival this weekend (Hmmmh, I might need to find some extra hours from somewhere) and I hope all those teams who lost this week get a win on the board next week. However, it won’t happen as the season of hope is over – football is here and it is very much a results orientated business.

Still, good luck for the week two teams, I can see a number of teams (and fanbases) who will need it.

What is a Routine Anyway?

22 Thursday Aug 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Pre-Season

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Tags

Aaron Rodgers, AJ Green, Alex Erickson, Andy Dalton, Antonio Brown, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals, Derek Carr, Green Bay Packers, Greg Cossell, Hard Knocks, John Harbaugh, John Ross, Jon Gruden, LA Rams, Mike Glennon, Mike Mayock, Nathan Peterman, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Pre-Season, Ross Tucker, Ryan Finley, Washington, Zac Taylor

It should not be a surprise to me that none of my NFL blogs have lined up on time over the course of the pre-season. I have been exceptionally busy and unlike those paid by the NFL, a team, or a media company to cover the NFL, I must fit this blog round everything else, but enough whinging – football is coming.

What I Saw

I started off the week two pre-seasons games watching the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Washington in a game that seemed to have all the penalties. Certainly, the second look at Andy Dalton didn’t do much to build up hope for the season as he struggled with third and longs caused by repeated offensive line penalties. Things did settle down as the game went on but it was the defence and special teams that got the Bengals a 23-13 win that was helped by Alex Erickson taking a punt return back for a touchdown. The protection from the offensive line still looked good when they weren’t committing holds and the number of holding penalties are apparently up across the league but that won’t matter if it the refs are calling the game like that at the start of the season. This was something that Zac Taylor mentioned in his weekly press conference so hopefully it is tidied up a bit against the Giants this week. The good news is that there seems to be a real competition at receiver behind the injured AJ Green and John Ross but we really won’t know anything until the teams are putting in full game plans. There are already whispers amongst some fans that rookie quarterback Ryan Finley is looking good enough to start, but don’t expect Dalton to be going anywhere unless the season nose dives completely.

Whilst we’re talking Bengals we had the horrible news this week that former running back Cedric Beson died in a motorcycle accident. There’s a nice piece by Geoff Hobson on the Bengal site and it is that reminder that life is short so grab what you can when you can.

Moving back to football, I next watched Hard Knocks and the next Raiders game against the Arizona Cardinals. It is slightly awkward seeing Hard Knocks three days later as whilst watching their coverage of the game against the Rams I’m seeing some of what I though in the previous week’s game confirmed, other things come up and now I’m writing up their game against Cardinals.

I did get an interesting message from Dan this week:

Screenshot_20190822_170248.jpg

Dan went on to comment that it was something about his leadership style that was rubbing him the wrong way and that if he had tried it on Dan that it would have the opposite effect on him. It amused me as I was having similar thoughts. There are many ways to lead any group effort, and I think one of the most important facets is to stay true to yourself. Nothing will hold up buy in more for a group than for you trying to lead in a manner that is not natural to you. The thing that I wondered was all Gruden was doing was encouraging the backup quarterbacks to be more like him. I can see that the players need to take control of the huddle, but they must do it in their own authentic way. Neither Derek Carr, Mike Glennon or Nathan Peterman can be Jon Gruden in the huddle, but if they are properly prepared then they should be able to lead that offence as long as they are in command of what is going on. To me it is about setting a standard and holding everyone accountable with real consequences. We all handle stress differently and I wonder how coaching and management might change as the nature of the players continue to change. The days of screaming disciplinarians may not be over, but I think we’re heading that way. I’m reminded of a conversation I had on Twitter the other day when discussing leadership in space missions (pretty on brand for me I know):

Screenshot_20190822_170609.jpg

Back to the team and the headlines have all been about Antonio Brown, and it has become abundantly clear why the Steelers have traded away a player who when playing was arguably the best receiver in football. The Raiders’ GM Mike Mayock issued a statement that whilst they appreciate the issues, they are at the stage of the season where they need him to be all in. The latest is that Brown has filed a second grievance about notice regarding an old helmet but he has practised in a certified helmet. More on Hard Knocks tomorrow and in the coming week I am sure.

The final game I watched was the Green Bay Packers take on the Ravens in Baltimore and perhaps unsurprisingly lose given that the Ravens coach John Harbaugh is one of the coaches that focuses on winning in the pre-season whilst the Packers did not play Aaron Rodgers due to him having a bad back. I’m still getting used to watching the Packers, and I will confess to being a little frustrated at not seeing Rodgers so here’s hoping he gets a good run out in game three against the Raiders in.

What I did find interesting was that for all the talk of the fullback I swear I didn’t see one used until the second half. Now I’m not grinding coaching tape at this point so I will confess I’m watching rather than recording every single play so I could have missed it, but it is so hard to know how this team is going to do in the regular season. Particularly as Rodgers has been strongly stated that the best work he’s been getting is in practice, including going against another team’s defence. I think the thing to take away when people complain about pre-season is that it really matters to the people fighting for a roster spot, but perhaps these games really are for your football obsessed fan.

What I Heard

I wanted to highlight something I heard on Ross Tucker’s podcast with Greg Cosell last week that I thought was particularly interesting. He was talking about preparing quarterbacks in the pre-season and was saying that he’d been told you shouldn’t worry about turnovers in the pre-season as now is the time to work out if you can make a throw or not. Much better to try and make the play now and find out it won’t work than fail in the regular season. Cosell also suggested that for mobile quarterbacks the pre-season was the perfect time for them to work on their pocket presence and mechanics as the scrambling improvisational plays will come anyway during the season.

What I Think

I understand why many people might think it would be a bad idea as you wouldn’t want him near your brand, but I still can’t help but think the Antonio Brown situation is an opportunity for someone in the helmet business to get him fitted with one of theirs. After all, if Brown complains about it, given all that’s gone on this season do we really think you as the helmet maker would get blamed and maybe you could be someone to engage with him in a way where he could hear a positive no i.e. polite and firm so as not to pander, but a healthy this is the situation and here’s how we can deal with it type of interaction that he possibly hasn’t had for a while.

What I Know

I need to figure out why Dan and his dad have signed up for the picks competition but I can’t see them in the group, but it will be happening and so keep an eye out as we would be more than happy to have you in the competition this year. If you join before the start of the season then perhaps you can come out top and the blog will be in your NFL team’s colours next season.

What I Hope

I am going on holiday next week, and I am hoping to watch and post relatively normally, whilst having a relaxed fabulous time. Once back I’ll be preparing for the new season, which really feels quite surreal to think about even though I’ve been in preseason mode for weeks.

The Disappointed Twenty: AFC Edition

02 Wednesday Jan 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Tags

Adam Gase, Blake Bortles, Brandon Beane, Buffalo Bills, Case Keenum, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, David Caldwell, Denver Broncos, Deshaun Watson, Jacksonville Jaguars, James Conner, John Dorsey, John Elway, Jon Gruden, Josh Allen, Le'Veon Bell, Marcus Mariota, Marvin Lewis, Miami Dolphins, Mike Mayock, Mike Vraebel, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Patrick Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Pittsburgh Steelers, Sam Darnold, Sean McDermott, Tennessee Titans, Todd Bowles, Tom Coughlin, Vance Joseph

It is time to say our sad farewells to the teams that have already gone their separate ways having failed to reach the playoffs. In a bid to make this more manageable to both read and write I will be covering the AFC today and the NFC tomorrow.

Before I begin there is one universal bit of comfort that any fan of the following teams should take, namely that in the NFL a franchise really can turnaround in an off-season, although there are some situations that may take a couple of off-seasons to sort out but even then a big improvement could be in the offing in September.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had a very up and down season that saw a 3-0 start falter and slip to 7-9 record. This has cost Adam Gase his job and it feels like the Dolphins will spend the off-season remaking the roster again and trying to find a franchise quarterback. There were questions raised before the season about trading away some of their best players to address issues in the locker room, but it was a lack of consistency and an utter failure on the road that cost this team. The Dolphins won their first road game against the Jets and failed to win another all year. The season highlight will undoubtedly be the last second hook and ladder play to beat the New England Patriots but once again the Dolphins couldn’t seriously challenge in the AFC East. My concern is that the roster and front office is as much to blame, if not more, than the coaches and until they build a team round a quarterback who can remain healthy for the whole season then there is only so much success they can have. They also rank twenty-seventh in the league for cap space next year and so there is not a lot of room to do much in free agency with the way the team is currently constructed.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills had a tough season this year as they traded away a number of assets to move up in the draft to get their quarterback of the future and whilst this did not affect the defence too badly as it finished second in the league by DVOA, the offence really suffered. The good news regarding Josh Allen was that he proved that he could be effective on the ground in the NFL, but he will need better players around him and to develop as a passer if the Bills are to get back to the playoffs. It will help that there is some stability as GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott are staying in place, and this team played hard for McDermott all year, but the offence will have to improve if they are to get where they want to go. The good news is that they have the third most free cap space next year so they have room to manoeuvre.

New York Jets

Having failed to get into the playoffs for three seasons and only going 4-12 this year the Jets let go of head coach Todd Bowles. I can understand that the franchise felt they needed a new voice, but Bowles was not given a huge amount to work with over the last couple of seasons and the Jets always seemed to play hard for him. The good news is that Sam Darnold is a promising young quarterback, but once again he will need to have the infrastructure placed around him to enable success. The worry will be that the defence also needs work as it only finished twenty-first in the league by DVOA despite Bowles’ pedigree as a defensive mind. At least they will have cap room to work with as they are second only to the Colts in cap space next year, but free-agency success doesn’t always translate onto the field as this franchise has learned only a few seasons ago.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers just missed out on the playoffs and will be kicking themselves about losses to the Broncos and Raiders. However, there was more than a little drama surrounding the team this season and to an outsider it seems that sorting this out may help the on field performance. Part of this should be achieved by the departure in free-agency of Le’Veon Bell, and certainly James Conner was an able and cheaper alternative at running back. In truth there doesn’t need to be big changes as there is an awful lot of talent on this team, who finished sixth on offence and thirteenth on defence by DVOA. I have no doubt the Steelers will be competitive next year and before we say there is too much wrong, with a now competitive Browns franchise the AFC North was one of the tougher divisions in the league this season. Speaking of which…

Cleveland Browns

I billed this post as the disappointed ten, and yes the Browns would prefer to be in the playoffs, but this is the first time since 2010 that the Browns have not been bottom of the division (and yes the Bengals were bottom that season too) and there are definitely things that should give the fans in Cleveland hope. For the first time since the new franchise was founded it looks as if the Browns have got a franchise quarterback and a five and three finish suggests that if the Browns can nail the coaching staff hire this off-season they should be competitive next year. There is plenty of young talent on the roster already and GM John Dorsey has a proven track record of success, whilst the Browns have the fourth most cap space next season. I’m happy for the long suffering fans of Cleveland but it does not make the picture look any better for the Bengals.

Cincinnati Bengals

All teams face injuries and there are plenty of teams who either had more, or had them more clustered, but the offence particularly suffered this season and when the defence didn’t really shape up until the last couple of weeks after Marvin Lewis took control then it’s not surprising that the season sputtered to a halt. The Lewis era is finally over in Cincinnati and I do not forget how much work he had to put in to make the franchise credible and not the laughing stock of the league but how this group moves on is the big question for next season. It is not implausible for the team to bounce back in the off-season, but they will need to be setup to improve and that really all does depend on the coaching staff as there is not much cap room to improve and Mike Brown seems to very much believe in incremental progress. There are a lot of unknowns right now and so us Bengals fans will just have to hope that the next hire is a good one.

Tennessee Titans

For all that I couldn’t get a handle on them for picking purposes, the Titans went 9-7 despite the injuries to quarterback Marcus Mariota and if he can get the nerve issue in his throwing arm to settle down in the off-season then there is no reason why the Titans can’t compete again next season. For all his accolades as a player, Mike Vrabel was a rookie head coach with limited experience as the man calling the shots and he made a winning start in his first year of coaching, which bodes well for the future. The AFC South could be very competitive next season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars had a nightmare season, falling to 5-11 after getting to the conference championship game the year before. It appears that GM David Caldwell and head coach Doug Marone are coming back on Tom Coughlin’s say so but there are real problems here. They have no franchise quarterback and the running back they took ahead of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes has struggled this year and there are reports that he’s been a problem in the locker room. They are also currently over the cap for next season and even if they cut Blake Bortles, $16.5 of his $21 million dollar cap hit would remain as dead money. For all that they have assembled a good defence, they desperately need a functioning solution at quarterback and better players on offence and who knows if they can put that together in the off-season. There may be trouble ahead for the Jaguars next season as a difficult off-season looms.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos could not sustain a challenge to get to the playoffs and ultimately fell to 6-10. The Broncos never really took off under Vance Joseph and with their vaunted defence slipping and Case Keenum not bringing the form he showed with the Vikings last season to the party this year, it feels like there is a lot up in the air this off-season. I don’t know how long it might take for John Elway to feel pressure, but his drafts have not been stellar and his only real success in finding a quarterback was signing Peyton Manning and even then, Manning was a shell of himself when they actually won the Super Bowl. Their cap situation is not a disaster, but they need to get the coaching hire right and nail a draft if they want to compete with the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West, which looks like it will be no easier next season.

Oakland Raiders

The best thing that can be said for the Raiders is that they have a lot of draft capital, but after a tumultuous campaign that saw them go 4-12, the Raiders head into the off-season with nowhere to play their home games next season and questions all over the roster. They have just hired Mike Mayock to be their GM, but whilst he has been a great analyst for ESPN, it is a different job evaluating talent when there are wins on the line and make no mistake it will be Jon Gruden calling the shots. A lot will depend on whether this new pairing can hit the ground running, but with the roster where it is and where to play up in the air, it’s hard to sit here and predict how the Raiders will go next year. Let’s just say it would not exactly be a shock if they struggle again…

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