Tag Archives: Atlanta Falcons

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Eleven

18 Thursday Nov 2021

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I unfortunately scored the inverse to Dan in another bad week for picks, which saw Dan open up a two point lead as I fell closer to a fifty percent win percentage.

Gee:Week 10:  6 – 8Overall:  77 – 73
Dan:Week 10:  8 – 6Overall:  79 – 71

Patriots @ Falcons (+6.5)

I don’t know if I cursed the Falcons by expressing an interest last week, but they got beat heavily by the Cowboys on Sunday. Now they have questions around Cordarrelle Patterson’s ankle injury and face possibly the worst defence for them on a short week in their current iteration. You have to think that Bill Belichick will have plans for rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, and the Patriots should have more than enough pass rush to make life difficult for Matt Ryan behind an offensive line that struggled to protect him against the Cowboys.

So far this season Mac Jones has been the pick of the rookie quarterbacks, and whilst this has not resulted in a dynamic passing offence, the Patriots have a formula that is definitely working for them now that they seem to be over their traditional slow start.

I’m always concerned laying points on the road on a Thursday night, but I think these are two teams heading in different directions right now.

Gee’s Pick:     Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Patriots

Survivor Competition

Neither Dan or I managed to survive last week, with Dan’s faith in the Steelers undermined by a late Covid-19 scratch for Ben Roethlisberger while the addition of Cam Newton seemed to do for me.

I don’t think either of us should feel too bad about last week’s results, but we both need to get back on track this week. My strategy for this would be to back the Titans to keep their win streak going against the Texans, even if I am giving the Texans a hard look as a underdog cover for Sunday, but Dan pipped me to that selection.

As a result I’m stealing an option he was considering but isn’t available to him and I’m grabbing the Patriots going against the Falcons.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 5

Week 11 Selection:

Gee:    Titans
Dan:    Patriots

Bold Prediction of the Week

My bold prediction for the week definitely counts as bold.

For all that the Chiefs have won three in a row and have taken the lead in the AFC West, the Packers were without Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott has the options at the skills positions to work round an improving Chiefs pass rush. Not to mention that the Cowboys defence currently matches the offence in DVOA ranking as both units are ranked fourth.

This is the third overall team by DVOA in the Cowboys versus the fourteenth in the Chiefs, and yet in a fit of podcast pressure I have predicted the Chiefs will win. I don’t know that my pick this Sunday will follow this…

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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New York Jets @ London Falcons

10 Sunday Oct 2021

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I don’t know if it just because of everything else I’ve been doing but it feels like it’s been a slightly understated build up to the return of the NFL to London. The really odd thing for me is I’ve been talking to Dan about really looking forward to watching these games at the Spurs stadium, as if the ones in 2019 didn’t happen, which I guess is a function of there being no London games in 2020. I am looking forward to finding out what Dan makes of the stadium when he goes next week, but let’s focus in on the early early game that is kicking off our week five Sunday where the Atlanta Falcons adopt London as their temporary home.

Jets @ Falcons (-3.5)

‘Could not be more Falcons if I tried’

So I know which way Dan is going, and I look at the number and the situation and I simply do not agree. That doesn’t mean that I am right, but the Falcons will be without their number one and two receivers in Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. Right now the Falcons rank thirty-second by DVOA, a massive 20.4% behind the Jets even if they are only ranked two places above them. It might be because I saw the Jets win their first game last week, but there were definite glimmers of progress in this young roster, and Zach Wilson made some lovely throws although I think he could get himself into trouble at times as he’s not afraid to trust his arm. Still, I’ve seen nothing from the Falcons that makes me think that they should be giving up more than a field goal in points so I’m going to grab the points and hope not to be disappointed.

Gee’s Pick:     Jets
Dan’s Pick:     Falcons

The Disappointed Eighteen – NFC Edition

09 Saturday Jan 2021

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Welcome to part two of my rundown of the disappointed eighteen teams who did not make the 2020 NFL play-offs.

In this post I shall be looking at the NFC conference and I’ll work in ascending number of wins and descending draft order.

The cap numbers for next season still come from spotrac.com and the ranking/numbers were right at time of posting with an assumed team salary cap of $175 million.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12)

The Falcons never seem to have quite got over their loss in the Super Bowl back at the start of 2017 even though they got back to play-offs the following year, and after two losing season and an 0-5 start the Falcons let go both head coach Dan Quinn and GM Thomas Dimitroff. The Falcons fortunes picked up initially under interim head coach Raheem Morris who went a very respectable 4-2 in his first six games in charge of the Falcons, but they then lost five straight to finish out the season. It was a strange year for Matt Ryan who threw for over four and a half thousand yards and twenty-six touchdowns to eleven interceptions, but the timing of those interception often seemed to be poor. An offensive ranking of twenty-first undermined and average defence but it is interesting to see the Falcons picking fourth by their record but were ranked seventeenth overall by DVOA. Rebuilding this team could a difficult task, Matt Ryan might have a few years left in him at 35, but this is a team who are $32 million over the 2021 cap, behind only the Eagles and the Saints in terms of being over the cap. There are some painful decisions to make and unsurprisingly for a team picking in the top five, a lot of work to be done but this is one of those situations where we shall have to see what vision their new GM sells to ownership and how well they can implement it. It’s not like there are no good players in Atlanta, but there are a lot of questions and I simply do not know how the Falcons will bounce back next season.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1)

I can see why the three teams who are the most over the cap got there, the Saints are trying to maximise their chances of getting back to the Super Bowl at the end of their Hall of Fame quarterback’s last season, whilst both the Falcons and Eagles have been to the Super Bowl in the last five seasons. However, if the Falcons never managed to get over their loss, the Eagles might not have moved past their win. The Eagles roster has frequently been spoken of as one of the deepest in the league in the last few season seasons, including by myself, but familiar names have not saved them from injuries and the slow decay over seasons that finally tipped into losing this year. Worse still, their franchise quarterback Carson Wentz who had to watch their Super Bowl win from the side-lines in 2018 fell apart this season, which having signed a four-year $128 million extension in 2019 that kicks in this season causes all kind of problems this off-season. Carson Wentz was dropped for rookie Jalen Hurts towards the end of the season and it has been stated that Wentz’s relationship with head coach Doug Pederson has completely broken down, but Wentz simply cannot be cut. Wentz will count as $34.5 million on the cap next season and there would be a cap hit of $59 million if he was cut. I’m not sure what cap tricks can be pulled, but at $74 million over the cap, and the salary number is expected to down next season because of the lost game day revenue, there are huge questions about what can be done in the off-season. I am no capologist and I don’t cover the off-season in granular detail, but I will be watching with the situation in Philadelphia with interest. I certainly can’t predict a rapid turn around given this franchise doesn’t look to have functioned to the same level since a number coaches left Pederson’s staff after the Super Bowl win. I do wonder how long the owner’s patience will last if things don’t turn around quickly next season though.

Detroit Lions (5-11)

I left the possibility that Matt Patricia could surprise me before the season, but I did not foresee the Lions improving that much this season and that was very much the case. I questioned Patricia’s ability to create a good defence outside the environment of the Patriots where he made his name as a defensive coordinator, and sure enough they finished this season ranked thirty-second in the league by DVOA at the end of the season. Patricia was let go at the end of week twelve having fallen to 4-7 after a blow out loss to the Texans on Thanksgiving along with GM Bob Quinn. Since letting go of Jim Caldwell the Lions have had three seasons with double digit losses so they need to get the hiring decisions right this off-season. As discussed on the podcast this week, the Lions have the second longest play-off win drought in the NFL (second only to the Bengals) but twenty-nine years is a long time to wait for a play-off win! The Lions are not in desperate cap trouble, but $6 million under when you have the worst defence in the league does not give you a lot of options to work with so this is another team that needs the right GM to build a franchise up over a number of years. There is talk that perhaps they should trade quarterback Matthew Stafford and rebuild from the ground up, but at thirty-two he should have a few good years left though he may fancy a change of team if the right opportunity presents itself. There is too much uncertainty right now to predict how the Lions will fair, but I have a feeling that a multi-year rebuild is coming.

Carolina Panthers (5-11)

This was always going to be a tough season for the Panthers who were starting a major rebuild with first time NFL head coach Matt Rhule and a curtailed pre-season. They lost their first two games, but then won their next three despite Christian McCaffery being unavailable due to injury (a situatin that was the case more often that not in 2020) and having heard Rhule on the Peter King’s podcast I was really impressed with how things were shaping up for the Panthers under their new head coach. Unfortunately, what followed was five straight losses and the Panthers were only able to get two more wins over the rest of the season. The Panthers made the decision to move on from GM Marty Hurney who has an overall record of 106-32 with the Panthers but 16-30 since he re-joined in 2017. The Panthers only have marginally more cap space to play with than the Lions so this is yet another franchise who look like they are in for a patient rebuild, but we will have to see and certainly owner David Tepper is not shy of making changes now he has had the team for a while. I still have a good impression of Matt Rhule but it looks like there is a lot more work to do and at some point the question of a franchise quarterback is going needs to be dealt with.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

I am almost not sure where to start with the Cowboys who were much fancied going into the season under new head coach Mike McCarthy who started his time in Dallas going 1-4 despite Dak Prescott playing very impressively. Unfortunately, then things went from bad to worse in game five when Prescott went down to a horrible ankle injury that helped turned the sputtering 1-4 start into a 2-7 record before the bye. Things improved in the home run of the season with the Cowboys maintaining a winning record and went into week seventeen with a shot of winning the NFC East. However, a woeful performance from backup quarterback Andy Dalton saw them lose the game as Dalton slipped to a 4-5 record as the starter this season. The Cowboys will face more off-season turmoil about getting Prescott signed to a long term deal but at least he should be fit for the start of next season. The real concern though is the defence, which slipped from sixteenth in the league by DVOA in 2019 to twenty-fourth and the Cowboys go into 2021 with £10 million of space to sign a quarterback so the route to a defence surely lies through the draft and better coaching. It was an odd season for a new coaching staff to take control so you might feel that it is unfair to judge McCarthy too harshly, but it is worth pointing out that McCarthy went 11-16 in his last two seasons with the Packers and his successor Matt LaFleur has gone 26-6. I have concerns about how the Cowboys run by Jerry Jones and how good the coaching staff are so whilst I’m not saying the Cowboys can’t compete next year, they have not been able to compete consistently for a reason which makes it hard to expect good things next season.

New York Giants (6-10)

The New York Giants were understandably frustrated when the Eagles pulled Jalen Hurts at the end of a close game they eventually lost against the Washington Football Team, handing the NFC East to the capitol, but with only six wins the Giants really only have themselves to blame about not making the play-offs. Their season started badly with the Giants going 0-5 and losing Saquon Barkely for the season after only two games. The Giants got their first win for rookie head coach Joe Judge against Washington, but that was followed by two more losses until the Giants went to Washington and swept their divisional opponents. This was followed by two more wins against the Eagles and the Bengals before their marquee win of the season, a masterpiece of a defensive performance that saw the Giants hold Russel Wilson and the Seahawks to twelve points in Seattle and come away with the win. At this point in the season I was really becoming very impressed with the coaching job Judge was doing and fancied them to make a run at the division. To be fair, they were still in the race on the final day despite losing the next three games, but the Giants needed Washington to lose because the their twenty-sixth ranked offence couldn’t score enough points for them to maintain their challenge for the division. I am not convinced by Daniel Jones as a quarterback or for that matter, Jason Garrett as an offensive coordinator but I do feel like this season finally represents progress after three seasons of failing to make the play-offs, even if the Giants still recorded double digit losses. However, the slow progress will have to continue with the Giants over the cap by $9 million next season, and I do think they need another quarterback, but with the arrow finally pointing up and a talent like Barkley returning next year they could well be a surprise in the NFC East.

San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

The 49ers season seemed doomed from the start due to injuries, a problem that followed them all through the 2020 season. Once again Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t make it through an entire season with the teasing quarterback only playing in six games this season and it would not exactly be a surprise to see the 49ers make a move at that position in the off-season. Still, Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have created a great culture in San Francisco so this 6-10 feels a lot more positive than how a lot of teams might feel. Certainly defensive coordinator Robert Saleh did well to get his unit to a ranking of sixth in the league overall by DVOA and it would not be a surprise to seem him as a head coach next season. The 49ers have cap space next season but not necessarily enough to sign a big contract quarterback without some clever moves, but I do expect them to compete again next season. If they can finish the regular season ranked eleventh overall by DVOA despite their raft of injures then with a bit of luck they can sustain a challenge in the very competitive NFC West.

Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

It’s perhaps not a surprise that the Vikings struggled on defence this season given that they let 223 collective career games in their secondary walk out the locker room in the off-season. I should also mention that the Vikings were part of that rare thing, the NFL trade that benefited both participants. The Vikings sent disgruntled receiver Stefon Diggs to the Bills and he transformed the Bills’ offence alongside Josh Allen’s remarkable development, whilst the Vikings used the pick they acquired to draft Justin Jefferson who set a Vikings rookie receiving record which is no mean feat when the pervious record holder was Randy Moss. The Vikings actually made fifteen draft picks in a year with no proper off-season programme so they did pretty well to reach 7-9 with a defence that Mike Zimmer called the worst he ever coached. That said, the defence still ranked eighteenth by DVOA and if anything, it was the problems the Vikings had with winning when running back Dalvin Cook wasn’t available that stopped them from making the play-offs. Still, under Mike Zimmer the Vikings have been to the play-offs every other year and while this is only his second losing season since his first with the team in 2014, I don’t see any major reason why they can’t challenge again next season. Their path there still might not be that straight forward though as they are $17.5 over next year’s cap and so once again they will have to rely on draft picks and coaching. I wonder who else on the current roster might be let go. However, given the Vikings have been consistently able to be competitive I expect them to be so again next season.

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

The Cardinals pulled off something of a coup in the off-season, acquiring receiver DeAndre Hopkins in a trade with the Houston Texans that most would say the Cardianls got the better of the deal. They also got off to a good start this season going 5-2 before their bye, but were unable to keep pace with the more experienced play-off contenders in the NFC West and just missed out on the play-offs. Though there were no announcements, it seemed like second year quarterback Kyler Murray was dealing with some kind of injury mid-season as there was a notable drop in his rushing production for a number of weeks and this seemed to hamper the offence. Still, they got back to winning ways towards the end of the season but losses to two divisional opponents in the final two weeks sees them on the outside of the play-offs looking in. A year of development is nothing to be sneezed at, but while the three more wins and ten place improvement in defensive ranking by DVOA from their 2019 record is good, as is the thirteenth ranking by overall DVOA, the slip in offensive ranking given the acquisition of Hopkins is a concern. This might all be down to the injury I suspect Murray was dealing with, but I have heard enough concern about head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s play calling and game management to be very curious to see if they can improve again next season or if they hit a plateau or get worse. The Cardinals don’t have a huge amount of cap space available to them next season, and we are once again wondering if this is the last season for veteran receiver Larry Fitzgerald, but I wonder if the results of season rest on the lessons the coaching staff learnt this year and whether they can apply suitable changes to get them over the top next season. To me this is one of the more interesting situations in the league going into next season so I will be watching with interest.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average, and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Fifteen

17 Thursday Dec 2020

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A bad week in picks and survivor for yours truly means that Dan is tightening his grip on both competitions and with me fighting through physical injury (badly sprained ankle) and dodgy internet I feel in no shape to catch him up.

I suspect that the blog will be turning teal and orange much to Dan’s delight, and if that is the case then I will have to see if I can find the website resources I created when I dreamt up the idea of blog colours being the prize, or if I will have to recreate from scratch.

Looking back over my week fourteen picking mistakes, they are a mixture of things I did not see coming that I am not convinced could be predicted from the information I was working with, and things I am really annoyed about. If you had enough information on the injury situation of Kyler Murray then perhaps you could have predicted the Cardinals would beat the Giants with Murray once more scrambling effectively, but there were signs that Lamar Jackson was looking better running the ball against the Cowboys so I should have accounted for that in their game against the Browns. I’ve been a step slow to see changes in teams this season and part of dealing with the volatility of a matchup driven week to week sport like the NFL is to not hold on to recent results to tightly and be wary of reading too much into the last couple of weeks. I will definitely be digging into my picking history this off-season and re-assessing my plan for next week.

Gee:Week 14:  6 – 10Overall:  99 – 110
Dan:Week 14:  10 – 6Overall:  110 – 99

Chargers @ Raiders (-3.5)

Our Thursday Night game for week fifteen is a divisional matchup that sees the Las Vegas Raiders hosting the LA Chargers in a battle of recently moved franchises, which is immediately throwing me into a quandary. The Raiders have lost three out of their last four games and needed a helping hand from a zero-blitz Jets defence to win their one game in that stretch. With their chances of making the play-offs badly damaged by this run Raider’s head coach Jon Gruden fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther and promoted Rod Marinelli, who will need all of his experience to make a difference to this unit on a short week. The LA Chargers have a promising young quarterback but despite having what on paper should be a competitive roster have not managed to turn that potential into wins. The Chargers may have beaten the Falcons last week but neither team is exactly engendering a lot of trust in me at the moment so the extra half point I’m getting compared to the consensus line is seeing me take the Chargers, but I’m not exactly excited about it.

Gee’s Pick:     Chargers
Dan’s Pick:     Raiders

Survivor Competition

My ability to jinx good NFC teams struck again in week fourteen when having lost earlier in the season with the Packers, I lost with the Saints going against the Eagles. To put that in perspective, both teams are 10-3 and I managed to pick them in one of their six losses. Dan of course had the advantage of not adjusting his pick to me and sailed through with the Titans but there was nothing stopping me from picking them last week so I should have just done that. As it happens, the Titans are my best shot this week so I am going with them against the Lions whilst Dan is opting to go against the Jaguars with the Ravens.

Current Score

Gee: 9
Dan: 11

Week 15 Selection:

Gee:    Titans
Dan:    Ravens

Bold Prediction of the Week

This week my bold prediction is that Jalen Hurts with have more rushing yards against the Cardinals than Lamar Jackson will have against the Jaguars. Now I think this might be madness, and it is a sign of the disruption to my week that I can’t remember my original thinking on why this would be the case when preparing for podcast, but it is at least bold.

2020 Week Thirteen Picks

06 Sunday Dec 2020

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So after the longest NFL week in history, we start week thirteen on Sunday with the games planned to roll to Tuesday night. I had a winning record in week twelve but Dan extended his lead to a whopping double digits so it would seems hard to predict that I will make a comeback at this point.

Still, I will run through our usual Competition Thursday bits as we prepare for the final week with teams on a bye, and eye up the run-in over the final quarter of the season.

Gee:Week 12:  9 – 7Overall:  83 – 95
Dan:Week 12:  10 – 6Overall:  93 – 85

Survivor Competition

Both Dan and I got back to scoring ways last week, with the Browns having to work a little harder than the Seahawks to get their win, but win both teams did. This leaves Dan a single point ahead of me going into week thirteen. It is getting harder to find teams now, but Dan has found a matchup he likes with the Broncos visiting the Chiefs, whilst I am nervously going to the well of picking against the Jets one more time to take the Raiders, but I don’t exactly feel great about it.

Current Score

Gee: 8
Dan: 9

Week 13 Selection:

Gee:    Raiders
Dan:    Chiefs

Bold Prediction of the Week

My bold prediction on the podcast this week is that the Detroit Lions will bounce back from the Matt Patricia firing and beat a struggling Chicago Bears team. Dan could not see it happening so allowed it, and I’m not exactly totally convinced but it certainly qualifies so let’s see how it goes.

Early Games:

When discussing the slate of games on the podcast Dan was not that excited about it but I found several contests that catch my eye.

I’ll start with the New Orleans Saints taking on the Atlanta Falcons, which I think could be interesting for several reasons. After an 0-5 start that saw head coach Dan Quinn fired, the Falcons have gone 4-2 under Raheem Morris and are coming off the demolition of the Raiders last week. I am particularly intrigued to see what the Falcons defense can do against Sean Payton working with Taysom Hill at quarterback. The Saints stuck to a simplified game plan last week with the Broncos not having a starting quarterback so this week’s divisional game will prove a sterner test. I can’t guarantee it will be competitive, but I have a feeling it will be.

The other game that catches my eye in the early slate is the Cleveland Browns’ visit to the Tennessee Titans. This is a meeting of two 8-3 teams who both like to run the ball a lot. I would give the advantage to the Titans given how they have played recently, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill is playing better than the Browns’ Baker Mayfield. It should be a really physical and competitive game so whilst they are not the biggest names in the NFL these days, they have been having very solid seasons and should put on a good game.

Points from the rest:

  • The Lions will be looking to bounce back from their last two poor performances after the firing of both their head coach and GM, whilst the Bears’ offence continues to struggle and though the defense maintained it’s top five ranking by DVOA, did not look that good last week. I’ve picked the Lions to win as my bold prediction of the week, but to be honest this is a hard game to read.
  • We don’t have word on whether Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua Tagovailoa is going to start for the Dolphins but it also doesn’t feel to me like it matters that much. The line was too rich for me to back the Dolphins, but I fully expect them to win this one at home against the Bengals
  • The Texans lost receiver Will Fuller and corner Bradley Roby to PED suspensions and cut Kenny Still this week, whilst the Colts have activated Deforest Bucker from the Covid-19 list so whilst I’m curious about how competitive the Texans will be, I think the Colts should win this one
  • This week’s game has suddenly got a lot more important for the Las Vegas Raiders having lost two games in a row. That does make me nervous, but they should beat the Jets because at this point it feels like pretty much everyone should beat the Jets. That’s not to say that everyone will and after their demolition by the Falcons last week I’m not as trusting as the Raiders as I was two weeks ago.
  • The numbers suggest I should pick the Vikings, and I do expect them to win but there was more of a balance to the Jaguars offence last week with journeyman quarterback Mike Glennon starting and I think this could be a closer game than the number suggests.

Saints @ Falcons (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Lions @ Bears (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Bengals @ Dolphins (-11.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Browns @ Titans (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Colts @ Texans (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Raiders @ Jets (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Jaguars @ Vikings (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Late Games:

The game that leaps out of the late games is the LA Rams coming off a tough loss taking on an Arizona Cardinals team with struggles of their own. The concern for the Rams is the play of Jared Goff, who did not look at all good against the 49ers last week and the usually ultra-positive Sean McVay criticized Goff publicly, although McVay did say he did it because he though Goff could take the challenge. The Cardinals meanwhile come into this game having lost three of their last four games with Kyler Murray nursing an injury and not running the ball as well as he was earlier in the season. This is the first time these two division rivals face off and so I expect a good contest, but I think the Rams are the most likely to win out.

Points on the Rest:

  • The New York Giants need every win they can get with them in the race for the NFC East lead, but with quarterback Daniel Jones injured it will be tough for them to win on the road. The numbers are very clear about the Seahawks being the right pick against the spread, but there’s something about the Giants where I wouldn’t be surprised if they did do something in this game, even if they are starting Colt McCoy at quarterback.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles continue to struggle and so I don’t see anything other than another difficult game for them against the Packers in Green Bay. I would  love to be proved wrong but I’m not sure where you can find hope as an Eagles fan this season and much like I was saying about the Lions earlier in the season, it is beginning to feel like there will inevitably be changes in the off-season in Philadelphia.
  • The LA Chargers have struck gold with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert and with the talent on their roster they should be doing better, but this is genuinely a tough spot for them. Bill Belichick has an excellent record against rookie quarterbacks and the Chargers run defense ranks thirty-first in the league by DVOA, and the Pats are not going to miss the chance to exploit that.

Rams @ Cardinals (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Giants @ Seahawks (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Eagles @ Packers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Patriots @ Chargers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Sunday Night Football:

Broncos @ Chiefs (-13.5)

It has been a touch couple of weeks for the Broncos as having had to play without a recognised quarterback last week thanks to their quarterbacks breaking Covid-19 protocols, they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. The reverse matchup finished 43-16 in week seven and so whilst the Chiefs have won their last three games by close margins, they are still 10-1 and I expect the Chiefs to do well again in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Monday Night Football

Washington @ Steelers (-8.5)

We get two Monday night games this week and the first sees the Washington Football Team take on the Pittsburgh Steelers who are coming off a short week having played Wednesday. The Steelers are a good team, but having had an awkward week of preparation and game moves in week twelve, they have a short week to face Washington and whilst I think the Steelers should win, it would not be surprising to see the Football Team make this game more competitive than this line suggests given how they have been playing recently.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Bills @ 49ers (+2.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are hosting the Buffalo Bills in Arizona thanks to not being able to train or play at their own facilities. The 49ers beat the Rams last week and starting to get some players back from injury and might have a chance to drag themselves into playoff contention. The Bills beat the Chargers solidly last week having been unlucky to lose to the Cardinals in week ten, but I think this will be a tough game for them and I would not like to predict a winner, but I do like the 49ers getting the points even if home is not actually home this week or for the rest of the season.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Tuesday Night Football

Cowboys @ Ravens (-9.5)

The Baltimore Ravens host the Dallas Cowboys on Tuesday night, somehow getting the better end of the schedule this week than the Steelers despite being the cause of their game being postponed until Wednesday. Dan has picked the Ravens depending on the status of Lamar Jackson, but the problems the Ravens are having this season are more than just those caused by Covid-19 last week. The Ravens have lost four of their last five games and the offence has not looked right for the majority of this season. I don’t exactly trust this Cowboys team and particularly as Washington absolutely battered them on Thanksgiving after the Cowyboys had even more problems on the o-line, which leaves me in a conundrum. I think that Dan will likely get to stick with the Ravens as it is thought that Jackson should come off the Covid-19 list by Tuesday, but despite all my concerns about the Cowboys the numbers strongly indicate the Cowboys and given how seldom I have won going against the numbers I’m going to reluctantly back the Cowboys, but I also reserve the right to change my mind nearer the game.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Week Eleven Picks

22 Sunday Nov 2020

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After a pretty disastrous week ten for picks it is kind of appropriate that I got week eleven off to a losing start, but I suppose I had better start from the beginning.

The last week was pretty rubbish for me given that I was ill for a lot of it, but let’s hope that’s the last week of the season that my routine is affected by illness. I fell another four games back from Dan and so whilst I managed to keep his lead down to single digits, it really does feel like he is destined to take over from his dad as picks champion, which somehow feels appropriate. He has even scored more points than my value tracking numbers, although because there isn’t always a line advantage his winning percentage is over ten points lower, but I am no where near 50-50 this season so I am clearly going to have to re-work things in the off-season.

However, having watched the Seahawks stomp over the pair of us backing the Cardinals on Thursday night, it’s time to swing through the survivor competition and get into the rest of the week eleven slate of games.

Gee:Week 10:  4 – 10Overall:  69 – 79
Dan:Week 10:  8 – 6Overall:  78 – 70

Survivor Competition

Through ten weeks Dan and I are a pretty respectable eight and seven points respectively. Dan’s confidence paid off last week as he took the Vikings over the Bears whilst my play against the Texans with the Browns worked out for me. Although the Jets are back in play this week, neither Dan or I are trusting enough of the Chargers to risk them as our pick and so while Dan is demonstrating confidence in the Patriots recent run of wins by backing them over the Texans, I am working my way up the list of losing teams and settling on the Vikings going against the Cowboys. I am a little concerned that Jerry’s team are coming off a bye and are getting Andy Dalton back from his concussion/Covid-19 nightmare, but there are fifteen places between them in the overall DVOA rankings and I like how the Vikings have been playing in recent weeks.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 8

Week 11 Selection:

Gee:    Vikings
Dan:    Patriots

Early Games:

I can find reasons to pretty much watch any NFL game, but it does feel like this week the exciting contests are a little thinner on the ground and somewhat weighted to the later part of the slate and Monday.

The first of the early games to really catch the eye is the Tennessee Titans travelling to face the Baltimore Ravens, but that is as much because of what it will tell us about the teams than conviction in the inherent quality of the contest. The Titans are a perfectly respectable 6-3, but the concern will be that they have slipped to that record after a 5-0 start and have lost three of their last four games. The defence is not good and the kicking game has been a real Achilles’ heel and whilst the big names have been performing on offence, losses to the Colts and the Steelers will be concerning as they came at home whilst having already lost to the Bengals on the road, the Ravens will prove a stern test. The Ravens are a matching 6-3, but whilst they have another top ten defense and are second in the league in special teams by DVOA, the offence is ranked in the twenties and is definitely struggling after they set the league alight last season. The interesting commentary I have heard over this is that for all the questions about Lamar Jackson throwing the ball this season, he is near the top of the league when throwing on first down, the problem with their run heavy attack is that the Ravens just don’t do this a lot. If the Ravens can figure out their pass-run balance on first down, and they are known as one of the more analytically minded teams, then they could truly terrify, but as I have said all season, they won’t really scare opponents until they can demonstrate the ability to come back from a big deficit. I think they are unlikely to face that problem in this game though, and think they are likely to win a physical game although that line does look generous to me.

The other game I am interested in is the New Orleans Saints hosting the resurgent Atlanta Falcons. The Saints have looked a lot better in the last couple of weeks, but they are obviously going to be a different team whilst Drew Brees recovers from his collapsed lung and broken ribs. The Saints demonstrated they could win consistently without Brees for multiple weeks last year, but Teddy Bridgewater is now starting for the Panthers and it is interesting that at the time of writing the starter is rumoured to by Taysom Hill and not Jameis Winston. Regardless the Saints will be without Brees for at least three weeks as he’s been placed on IR and they start this run against a rested Falcons team who have won three of their last four games. If the Falcons continue to win at this rate it could make how to proceed in the off-season a tricky question, but this is their first real test since their mini turnaround given that it consisted of beating a Vikings team without Dalvin Cook, then facing the Lions, Panthers and Broncos. I think I like the Saints to win out given their experience and defense, but I am not exactly sure about it and the line seems high to me.

From the rest:

  • The Bengals are a two-win football team for a reason, and after a really great win against the Titans they were battered by the Steelers last week. This is a very winnable game, but the experience of Alex Smith worries me, even if it is amazing to see him come back from the injuries he had to start in the league once more. If the Bengals don’t win this one though, you will likely find my querying the directions of the franchise under Zac Taylor in next week’s podcast.
  • The Eagles still stand atop the NFC East despite their loss against the Giants last week, but they were meant to come back stronger from the bye not lose another game and this is a tough match up as they travel to Cleveland to face a Browns team with twice as many wins. The Eagles are going to have to really improve to compete in this one and if they don’t soon then a very winnable division is going to slip through their fingers. It is a sign of how far the Browns have progressed this season that there’s not a lot to say this week and we are not focused on Odell Beckham’s injury.
  • The story breaking about last season’s Lions having a party at the end of the season because they would be free of Matt Patricia is not a ringing endorsement of him as a head coach, and having just finished a biography about Bill Belichick for all his testy relationship with the media, his players like and respect him and he wins, something Patricia with a 13-27 record has failed to consistently do. Having beat Washington by three points last week the struggling Panthers provide another opportunity to pad the win column, but it still feels like the Lions are a franchise marking time until off-season changes.
  • With two consecutive wins the Patriots have dragged themselves back into contention and are only a win away from get back to even wins and losses, which they really should get this week against a Texans team who can’t really compete now that Deshaun Watson no longer has DeAndre Hopkins to throw to. The slow rebuild the Texans are going to need over the coming seasons will stand testament to how GM Bill O’Brien let down head coach Bill O’Brien.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers unbeaten streak was never in doubt against the Bengals last week, and I doubt they will struggle to beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville, but it will be worth keeping an eye on this game just in case the Steelers have one eye on their week twelve Thanksgiving meeting with the Ravens.

Falcons @ Saints (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Bengals @ Washington (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Eagles @ Browns (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Lions @ Panthers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Titans @ Ravens (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Patriots @ Texans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Steelers @ Jaguars (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Late Games:

I think there is a singular stand out game in the late slot, which is the Green Bay Packers taking their 7-2 record to Indianapolis and a Colts team who have won consistently but haven’t quite convinced yet. This should be a really interesting contest when the Packers have the ball as it will see Aaron Rodgers running Matt LaFleur’s offence against a Colts defense who are currently ranked top five by DVOA, but it will likely be determined by how well a fading Philip Rivers can operate a Colts offence that hasn’t quite found its feet this season against a Packers defense that has so far done enough to win games thanks to their offence being second only to the Chiefs by DVOA. I am really looking forward to this one.

From the rest:

  • It is a testament of how things are coming together for the Dolphins that this looks like a straightforward game for them given that the Broncos are struggling to do anything consistently and Drew Lock has failed to prove himself the answer at quarterback despite the promise he had shown coming into the season.
  • The team without a win meets the team who seem to specialise in close losses, and something has to give. It is not exactly a surprise that the LA Chargers are favourites, but the Jets could be more competitive than this line suggests coming off a bye
  • The Cowboys will be hoping that the return of Andy Dalton gives them a boost as they also come off the bye, but the Vikings have looked a different team since getting Dalvin Cook back and will have an eye on a run to the play-offs in the final seven games of the season. However, with games on the road against the Buccaneers and Saints to come, they can’t afford any slip ups, including dropping a game against the struggling Cowboys.

Dolphins @ Broncos (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Jets @ Chargers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Cowboys @ Vikings (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Packers @ Colts (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

Chiefs @ Raiders (+6.5)

This tasty looking Sunday night game feature a divisional matchup where the Chiefs will be looking to revenge their single loss of the season to the Las Vegas Raiders, which is the only game where Patrick Mahomes has thrown an interception. The Raiders continue to struggle with Covid-19 protocols as one of the most heavily fined teams in the league had over half of their defensive starters put on the Covid-19 list this week due to close contact to a person with a positive test. As of Saturday there had been no further positive tests so if that holds they should get them all back for this game, but they have not been in the facility whilst the Chiefs are coming off a bye and Andy Reid has an 18-3 record after the bye so I have a feeling I know which way this contest will go. The Raiders will be hoping to confound this record but have not exactly had the ideal preparation to do so.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Monday Night Football

Rams @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

This should be a really good game as the LA Rams have been compeititve in pretty much every game this season and have a top ten offence and defence. The issue could be that Jared Goff is a quarterback who tends to either look really good or confused, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with their best defence by DVOA absolutely have the capacity to take Goff out of his game. The additional problem for the Rams is losing Andrew Whitworth at left tackle to a knee injury against the Seahawks last wee as even at 39 Whitworth was playing great football and he will be a big miss. The Bucs have only three losses this season, two against a Saints team that seem to have their number and to a Bears team that the Bucs should have beaten on a Thursday night if it was not for the number of penalties they gave away. The unsurprising bad news stories that follow the unstable Antonio Brown hit this week, demonstrating the dangers of signing him but for now the Bucs are coming off a big win against the Panthers and will be looking to prove their status against the Rams and Chiefs ahead of their week thirteen bye. I would not like to bet against the Bucs winning this week, but the line did give me pause picking the game, but as much as I rate Sean McVay as an offensive mind, the known issues with Goff against good defences would already worry me before he lost his left tackle.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Eight

29 Thursday Oct 2020

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Well, week seven was pretty good to me as I picked up three points on Dan so I achieve my next target of getting his lead down to single digits so now I need to get within a couple of points and we’ll have a proper competition. There’s plenty of time left so let’s get to work on week eight’s competition Thursday.

Gee:Week 7:  7 – 7Overall:  49 – 57
Dan:Week 7:  4 –10Overall:  56 – 50

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

This is an odd game to pick as both teams are coming off a loss, but the Atlanta Falcons only have one win this season and the Panthers have now established themselves as a competitive franchise despite the rebuild on defence and the number of veterans who left or retired in the off-season. The consensus lines and numbers are suggesting I take the Falcons and they did run the Lions close in week seven, but right now I have a lot more faith in the Panthers and as they are ranked eight places better than the Falcons by DVOA and are at home on a Thursday night I am going to go for the Panthers as they only have to win by a field goal to cover this line. I am aware that my old maxim of always back the home team on a Thursday night unless there was a really good reason to didn’t hold up, but I have a lot more faith in the coaching of the Panthers so that is where I am putting my faith.

Gee’s Pick:     Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Panthers

Survivor Competition

We held serve last week with the strategy of picking against the Jets maintaining a 100% record, and there is little to suggest that will change this week with them taking on the Chiefs, but having lost with the Chiefs against the Raiders earlier this season I have to look. somewhere else in week eight. Looking at the matchups and the teams I have left I think my best option is to select the Packers hosting the Vikings and just hope I don’t’ get any divisional weirdness. Dan has gone in a different direction grabbing the Buccaneers visiting the Giants, which certainly makes sense as a pick.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 5

Week 8 Selection:

Gee:    Packers
Dan:    Buccaneers

Bold Prediction of the Week

So Dan allowed both of my bold predictions on the podcast this week  in a triumph of doing some preparation ahead of recording, but also ensuring I have to keep doing something I fundamentally disagree with.

My first prediction was the Tua Tagovailoa will have more passing yards against the Rams than fellow rookie quarterback Justin Herbert will against the Broncos.

Secondly, the Bills will score more points this week against the Patriots than they did against the Jets in week seven.

Who Needs a Schedule Anyway?

15 Thursday Oct 2020

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Well ,week five finished with an unexpected result that I called wrong in the picks competition, which is becoming a worrying trend, but at least the Titans are back playing games and the NFL looks like it can keep to its scheduling plan for now. Meanwhile, the Bills after facing two scenarios about who they were playing have to move on quickly as they face the Chiefs on Monday night.

That said, I feel all over the place with the site at the moment, and having spent a chunk of time yesterday dealing with how our dynasty league would managed the waiver wire this week given that we were still locked in week five, I delayed this post by a day as there is no competition Thursday this week as we have no Thursday night game.

So let’s take a look at what happened in week five.

What I Saw

The week five Thursday night game was a ragged affair that I still found entertaining thanks to the two good defences on display, but it was frustrating to get my pick wrong as my assessment of the Buccaneers ability was fairly spot on but it was their indiscipline on offence that cost the Bucs this game. The Bucs actually went up by ten points in the first quarter of the game as the Bears struggled to move the ball consistently but kept themselves in touch thanks to their defence. The Bucs finished this game with three-hundred and thirty-nine yards of offence, ninety-six yards more than the Bears were able to generate but the Bucs also were flagged eleven times for a loss of one hundred and nine yards. This was forty-three more yards in penalties than the Bears and the combination of penalties and the Bears defence meant that after the first quarter the Bucs were only able to kick field goals for the rest of the game. That said, despite being streaky, Nick Foles managed to complete more passes that Tom Brady, even with Bucs corner Jamel Dean seeming to wage a one-person battle on the Bears’ passing attack at the end of the game. The Bears were able to do enough on offence against a Bucs defence that was regularly getting pressure to eek out a one point lead at the end of the game, but with how tight the game was the key play might have been when Bucs’ running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn caught a short pass and fumbled the ball setting up the Bears offence with a short field and that led to their second and last touchdown of the game in a crucial burst of point scoring in the second quarter. This is a game that I feel the Bucs really could have and probably should have won, but they need to clean up the penalties if they are to reach their potential. Meanwhile, if the Bears can keep getting enough production from Nick Foles on offence then their defence is good enough that they will keep winning games even if they likely won’t maintain their current twelve win pace or compete with the best teams in the NFL.

I don’t want to spend too much time on the Bengals this week as they were very poor, but the problem remains the offensive line and I’m now getting really worried about Joe Burrow operating behind it. In fact, I have a wider concern, Zac Taylor is a young head coach, hired due to his relationship with Sean McVay and the Bengals stressed how much they committed to his plan with rearrangements of both the practice facilities and offices, as well as hiring Taylor the largest staff they have ever had, but the offensive line is a good representation of my wider worry. Taylor’s choice of Jim Turner as o-line coach didn’t sit well with me from the start. Turner not only tolerated the bullying in his position group whilst at the Dolphins, but the investigation into the resulting scandal implicated him in taking part. Not content with this, when he returned to Texas A&M he was involved in another scandal involving inappropriate jokes at a football clinic for women. It’s one thing for a person to make a mistake and learn from it, but I have no patience for bullies or people who clearly have no interest in reforming their ways. The o-line has been a problem since Andrew Whitworth was let go, and the lead in to last season was undeniably tough with injuries and retirements, but it doesn’t feel like anything is changing or that players are developing and if the head coach can’t see this then I have to wonder about their judgement. It is appears I lied about spending too much time on the Bengals, but moving on to the Ravens – the blip against the Chiefs aside the Ravens are clearly a very good football team who will meet far stiffer challenges over the rest of the season and likely emerge victorious from most of them.

The other early game Sunday game I watched this week was the Carolina Panthers winning their third straight game, beating the still winless Atlanta Falcons. It was not a spectacle of a game, but the seventeen points the Panthers scored in the second quarter was enough for them to comfortably beat a Falcons team who have continued to struggle and that ultimately led to both GM Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Dan Quinn being fired. The Falcons have been trending this way for a while, but it had to be a difficult decision as a lot of the basis for the team that went to the Super Bowl is still there, but they have just not been able to recapture that form. Meanwhile, the Panthers have quietly got themselves to 3-2 despite losing Christian McCaffery to injury in week two, but could very well still be in contention by the time he returns from IR and that is a lot more than I was expecting of them coming into the season. The rest of this year will be strange for the Falcons as both players and coaches will be trying to prove they belong in the league, but it is going to be a long time before the Falcons as an organisation can do anything directly in terms of replacing their GM and head coach. That said, if the head start in the background checks the Falcons get by making the decision now leads to a similar result as what the Panthers have got so far with their new head coach having made an early change themselves last season then they will be very happy.

The final game I got to watch in week five was the closely fought contest that the Minnesota Vikings narrowly lost 27-26 to the Seattle Seahawks. The Vikings scored thirteen unanswered points to build a halftime lead, but came roaring back in the third quarter with three touchdowns and were taken to the wire by the Vikings. The big talking point coming out of this game was the Vikings decision to go for it on fourth down on the Seahawks’ six yard line with two minutes on the clock rather than kick a field goal. There may well be a statistical argument for doing what they did, both in terms of if they made the first down and in turning the ball over with under two minutes left on the clock on the opponents six yard line, and I would usually totally support the decision if that was the case. However, there are a handful of quarterbacks that you feel could execute a ninety-four yard drive in that time and Russell Wilson would be very much near the top of that list, particularly with the form he is in this season. The Seahawks did precisely that, scored the winning touchdown but failed on the following two-point conversion. The same conversion they would have needed to take the game to overtime if the Vikings had just kicked the field goal and taken an eight point lead. It is easy to be wise in hindsight, and I would normally support the maths, but this is one of the few times where I would countenance taking the safe option.

What I Heard

I am going to have to start taking better notes as I have heard lots of interesting things and couldn’t immediately bring a lot of it to mind. However, one thing that did stick is that whilst looking for what coaching tape to watch, I decided to look at the Football Outsiders DVOA stats for offensive line and have a look at the best team. Well, according to the site the team with the best adjusted line yards were the Cleveland Browns (closely followed by Dan’s Dolphins [the real NFL franchise, not his dynasty team]) and this was not wholly a surprise. Unlike the Bengals, who many people have commented on as being poor (although not in adjusted line yards where they rank a lofty twenty-six despite conceding the most sacks in the season so far), I have heard several people talking about how good the Browns’ offensive line is, and how impressive this was given they had a new coaching staff that had to install their offence during a Covid- shortened pre-season. A lot of credit has brrn given to their o-line coach Bill Callahan, and whilst I don’t know enough to evaluate him or the praise, it does make sense and I am looking forward to getting a head start on the coaching film this week with no Thursday night game.

What I Think

Despite the situation with the Titans, the NFL has as yet not lost a game from their schedule and they will be hoping the problems in Tennessee were an outlier and not a foreshadowing of what is to come. The NFL are continuing to adjust their protocols and re-enforce existing ones with talk of restricting the roles of those who are found to have been close contacts of players who have tested positive. I am still pretty impressed that the season has run as well as it has so far, but we are now heading into autumn with the weather becoming more favourable for the virus so soon we shall know if this start was the positive beginning of getting the season finished, or the warning signs that things are about to get a lot tougher.

What I Know

I know the Bengals o-line is bad, that the Panthers are better than I thought they were and that I am looking forward to seeing what Andy Dalton can do with the Dallas offence this week. It may not seem like much, but with everything going on at the moment I’m clinging to the small things and hoping the rest falls into place. I just hope the NFL have planned more carefully than that!

What I Hope

There is only one possible thin I can hope after the week five games, and that is both that Dak Prescott make a full and speedy recovery from his horrible injury sustained on Sunday and that it is a long time until we see anything similar.

2020 Week Five Picks

11 Sunday Oct 2020

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We have two more rescheduled games this week, including a Tuesday night game that may or may not see the Titans return to action depending on if there are any further positive tests. I would like to think that there will be no more unofficial workouts by the Titans’ players and this might go part way to explaining the number of positives the Titans have had compared to the other teams. That said, the positive test of Patriots’ corner Stephon Gilmore who apparently had dinner with Cam Newton, and the number of the close contacts Newton had is again a demonstration that no one can take the Covid-19 protocols lightly and we will have to see if the current plans will hold, or if things will need to change.

Anyway, having fallen a further point behind Dan in the picking competition thanks to a Bears win on Thursday, I hope to stop the bleeding a little over the rest of week five.

Early Games:

There are various games that look interesting to me in the early slot, but not a lot of obviously compelling watches.

The nearest we have to a competitive matchup according to the lines is the Carolina Panthers taking on the winless Atlanta Falcons, with the Falcons laying three and a half points to the Panthers who are coming off two straight wins. I will be watching this game as I haven’t had a chance to catch either team yet and I want to take a look at what Matt Rhule is building as well as what is going on with the Falcons and in particular their defence..

The other game that is catching my eye is a little self-serving, but the Bengals are coming off their first win with Joe Burrow and travel to take on the Baltimore Ravens. The AFC North is always a competitive division, at least amongst the top team and the Bengals have had a tendency to play the Ravens close so with Lamar Jackson dealing with a knee injury during the week I think this is likely a closer game that the line suggests and has the potential to be one of those division games that could give us a surprise result, even if it is merely a closer loss for the Bengals than expected.

Other things of interest:

  • The Kansas City Chiefs are heavy favourites, which is understandable to an extent as the Raiders have not won in Arrowhead stadium for seven years and with the Raiders’ defence still ranked in the thirties I like the Chiefs to continue their win streak but it could be a challenge to cover this line.
  • The LA Rams should win in Washington, except the Rams have been back and forth across the country at the start of this season so perhaps the Football Team can spring a surprise off the back of a different quarterback starting.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have fallen back in their division after two straight losses but will be hoping to get things back on track against a Jets team who will be without struggling quarterback Sam Darnold thanks to the AC sprain in his throwing shoulder. There will be some serious questions to answer if the Cardinals lose a third straight game.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles coming of their first win of the season travel to face the Steelers in a game that I think the Steelers are likely to win given the strength of their defense and the problems the Eagles are having on offence, but this game has the potential to get interesting if the Eagles defensive line can get going or if Carson Wentz finds some form.
  • There will be some who think the Texans will get a new coach bounce, and whilst that is possible, I don’t see it being a huge factor as their roster has structural issues thanks to letting Bill O’Brien make short terms moves as GM over the last couple of season. The Texans may well get their first win of the season, but this line is too high for me and the Jaguars offence may have success against a Texans defense centered around an ageing JJ Watt and not a huge amount more.

Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Bengals @ Ravens (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Raiders @ Chiefs (-12.5)

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Rams @ Washington (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Cardinals @ Jets (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Eagles @ Steelers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Jaguars @ Texans (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Late Games:

The matchup of the late Sunday games is the Indianapolis Colts taking their league leading by DVOA defense to Cleveland to face a Browns team who have won three games straight. The injury to lead running back Nick Chubb is a blow for the Browns, and the Colts will prove a lot sterner test than the miserable Cowboys defense last week. The Browns are getting points at home this week, but I think this is a close matchup and I think could be one of the more competitive games of the week.

The Dolphins could not keep up with the Seahawks last week and now face a trip across the country to face a 49ers team who are staying competitive despite their extensive injury list. I like the 49ers to win this one, but I think this game could be closer than the line suggests, and I would not be surprised if the Dolphins managed an upset.

The Dallas Cowboys simply cannot afford to lose this game, although no one is looking that capable of winning the NFC East. However, the Giants have the easiest offence the Cowboys have faced this season so this could be a chance for them to find something and it won’t take much of a defensive effort for the Cowboys to win given how well their offence is playing.

Dolphins @ 49ers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Colts @ Browns (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Giants @ Cowboys (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Sunday Night Football:

Vikings @ Seahawks (-7.5)

I sometime worry that I am turning into Dan as I am really looking forward to this game as after a slow start the Minnesota Vikings are finding their feet on offence, and they will need every yard of the passing game to keep up with the Seahawks. That said, the Seahawks defense is not good and plain bad against the pass, ranking twenty-ninth by DVOA. I think this should be a fun game to watch given the offensive battle, and while it may be closer than eight points, it’s hard to see Russell Wilson losing this game given how well he is playing.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Monday Night Football:

Chargers @ Saints (-7.5)

The LA Chargers have named rookie quarterback Justin Herbert their starting quarterback and he has definitely shown promise, but the Chargers only win came against the Bengals with Tyrod Taylor getting the start. The New Orleans Saints might not look quite like themselves, but with talk that receiver Michael Thomas could return and the Chargers looking decidedly average I find it hard to see them springing an upset on the road, even if the Saints are missing their passionate crowd. This line might be too big to cover, but I will be surprised if the Chargers do manage to get the win.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Rescheduled Games:

Broncos @ Patriots (-10.5)

The first game of the Monday night doubleheader sees the Patriots host the Denver Broncos coming off their Thursday night win over the Jets. It is hard to know how the disruption of the last week will have affected the Patriots, but they will miss Cam Newton and so whilst I think that Bill Belichick will be able to lead his team to the win, I doubt they will cover this line. I could be wrong, but double-digit points after a disrupted week of preparation that sees the Patriots going against a well-rested Broncos team is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Bills @ Titans (+1.5)

After all the positive tests and the apparent out of facility workouts the Titans are currently scheduled to retake the field this Tuesday night, which sees the Bills game against the Chiefs that was supposed to happen two days later put back to the Sunday. No one truly knows if the Titans will be in a position to play this game, or how they will look when they finally do return to the field. I think the Bills should win if this game does get played, but a Tuesday night game puts the Bills in a situation no team will have seen to prepare for their Sunday night game against the Chiefs. We knew that this season would not be fair, and so it will be even more impressive if the Bills come out of their next two games with a win or two.

Gee’s Pick:         Bills
Dan’s Pick:         Bills

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Testing the Protocols

30 Wednesday Sep 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

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This week’s midweek post is writen in the unusual position of being published later than our podcast as we were racing the news.

After a solitary Falcons’ player testing positive on Saturday turned into eight positive tests for the Tennessee Titans on Tuesday, including three players, events have led to the closing of both the Titans’ facility and that of their opponents on Sunday the Vikings.

According to ESPN the three players are from disparate position groups – a starting nose tackle, the long snapper and a practice squad tight-end, but now everyone holds their breath as we see if the cases spread amongst the Titans players and staff, or to anyone with the Vikings.

It is not unexpected for there to be positive tests, but this is the next true test of the protocols agreed by the NFL and the NFLPA and I certainly have been checking for news updates more frequently than normal. What I’m hoping for is that the outbreaks remain in small numbers and that no one has a life changing version of the illness. There are plenty of those who would say that these players get paid enough money to take this risk, but many players earn nothing like the millions the stars do and they only have one body and one life to use it in.

We are living in an uncertain world, and this is yet another stark reminder of that fact. I just hope the plans are up to facing the reality of playing a season in the middle of a pandemic, because just writing that sentence feels ridiculous.

And with that said, I suppose I had better get back to my usual in-season mid-week post…

What I Saw

Week three started with a one side affair in Jacksonville that saw the Miami Dolphins run out comfortable winners 31–13 over the Jaguars. Dan is still annoyed he forget to put the followingin the podcast last night so he would like to say:

‘It was good to see that they allowed the Jags to run at about a third capacity, which actually means that attendance at TIAA Bank Field is up on last season!’

The Dolphins were able to move the ball consistently with a balanced attack, whilst the Jaguars who I praised coming into this game struggled with the Dolphins’ defence playing more zone defence and with the absence of DJ Chark. Undrafted rooking running back James Robinson still looked good for the Jaguars, but wasn’t able to drag the team into contention. It was obviously good for the Dolphins to get the win and Brian Flores has already established a culture with the Dolphins and what they are looking for this season is progress from last year. The only concern is that the future of this franchise lies in the hands of Tua Tagovailoa and as fun as it is to watch Ryan Fitzpatrick play quarterback, the Dolphins are not building towards the future with the thirty-eight year old journeyman and the wonder has to be when Tagovailoa to play. To be fair, we have just seen with Patrick Mahomes that the old way of sitting a quarterback for a year can still work as they learn how to be a pro, but we shall have to see if that is the plan or not. The Jaguars need to get back to winning ways, but a long week before travelling to take on the Bengals might be the very tonic they need.

On Sunday the Bengals decided to tease me with their third tie since 2014 and I was there for the 2016 tied game in London. The Bengals defence looked like it might have coped a little better with the Eagles, but the offensive line is still struggling so Joe Mixon is having to work very hard for his yards and Joe Burrow is still looking poised as he searches for his first win. There was a nasty moment when Burrow was force out of the game after a hard hit and I hope there are not too many more of them and the line begins to come together but I’m not convinced, although some of the young receivers are beginning to get more involved inthe game.  As for the Eagles, there are some very recognisable names on the roster, but things are not working for them right now and they are beginning to look like a bad football team. It is not as if the Bengals are a good team, they haven’t won away from Cincinnati since week four of the 2018 season, so dropping to 0-2-1 when facing a road trip to the 49ers and Steelers makes the Eagles’ prospects look pretty bad, particularly as their week six game is against the Ravens. This is a franchise who need to find some kind of consistent formula to move the ball on offence as their eighteenth ranked by DVOA defence doesn’t looked equipped to lead the way, particularly as their ranking drops down to twenty-third against the pass.

If the Eagles are having a disastrous start to the season, the New Orleans Saints are having a difficult one that saw them lose 37-30 to the Green Bay Packeers in the Sunday Night prime time slot. I actually thought that the Saints offence moved the ball more consistently than the Packers, with Alvin Kamara leading the way on the ground but Drew Brees if not actually bad, is not up to his usual standards though the absence of receiver Michael Thomas still hobbled by injury will not help. However, off-season acquisition Emmanuel Sanders looked to be building some chemistry with Brees in this game. The problem is that whilst a 2-1 start is perfectly fine, the Packers are looking pretty good at 3-0 right now and whilst their defence only ranks twenty-eighth by DVOA, that doesn’t really matter when Aaron Rodgers is looking so comfortable in his second year running Matt LaFleur’s offence. Even without favourite receiver Davante Adams, Rodgers was able to generate big plays with Allen Lazard getting deep multiple times on a day when he finished with one hundred and forty-six yards and touchdown. The Saints home field advantage is lessened by not being able to have their loud fans, but playing in a dome is still preferable to having Brees at forty-one playing in Green Bay in January and that looks a step closer with this loss. There’s plenty of time to make up ground and a lot can change between now and then, but that is definitely the kind of stakes these two teams are playing for so this is a loss that could come back to haunt the Saints..

Finally, the much heralded (including by me) Monday night game saw the Kansas City Chiefs roll into Baltimore and hand the Ravens a 34-20 loss. The Chiefs were able to get a lead and build upon it with their versatile offence, as the defence also managed to contain the Ravens offence. It seems that Ravens still have problem throwing the ball when this is obviously necessary, and so as good as this team are, they have limits when playing against a similar level of opponent right now. This game also served a timely reminder of just how good Patrick Mahomes is, as well as how electric Lamar Jackson is running the ball. We could be in the early stages of what ccould become a spectacular rivalry, but for that to happen Jackson and the Ravens need to find a way or a receiver capable of getting them receptions when the defence knows they have to throw the ball. This matchu cannot be a rivalry if one team always plays a team close but never wins. If there is a franchise that is capable of taking this step then it is the Ravens, but they must stop this narrative taking hold and becoming fact.

What I Think

I think we have been lucky for things to go so smoothly through the pre-season and early weeks of the season, but we are about to find out how difficult it is going to be to get through to the end. Since I wrote the introduction to this post, the game between the Steelers and Titans has now been postponed (perhaps to Monday or Tuesday) and no one knows if something will have to happen with the Vikings at Texans game. Every NFL team and fan is currently holding their breath, waiting for the other shoe to drop.

The NFL has plenty of resources to throw at the problem, but like everyone else it is a non-sentient virus that’s is driving the decisions whether we like it or not.

What I Know

In our dynasty league it is the first TWF showdown between Dan’s Dolphins and Gee’s Tigers and perhaps we need to work on our franchise names.

On the field the matchup I am most looking forward to is Andy Reid’s offence going up against Bill Belichick’s defence.

Off the field, the NFL have issued another strongly worded warning to coaches who won’t wear face masks on the side lines, threatening suspensions and loss of draft picks. With players testing positive, and other players being spotted without masks at a charity event with members of the public, the NFL will want to get hold of the situation because we are beginning to see how the current solution that has worked so far is not that far away from falling apart.

It’s going to take real discipline and a lot of effort to get through the season.

What I Hope

What I hope this week is that we find a way through, if not to the end of the season then without a life changing infection for someone.

That is something that could be said of any season in the NFL, but their is added complexity to it this years. Let’s see what the week holds.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.