Success is a Fragile Thing but its Absence Sitcks

27 Wednesday Oct 2021

Tags

AJ Green, Andy Dalton, Baltimore Ravens, Carson Palmer, Carson Wentz, Cincinnati Bengals, Dan Snyder, Derick Henry, Deshaun Watson, Detroit Lions, Elijah Mitchell, Indianapolis Colts, Ja'Mar Chase, Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Burrow, John Lynch, Kansas City Chiefs, Kyle Shanahan, Marvin Lewis, Matt Patricia, Miami Dolphins, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Football Team

It has been a mixed week for the TWF team with the Bengals getting a statement win on the road against the Ravens to get people talking about them, whilst the Dolphins managed a déjà vu field goal loss against the Falcons against a back drop of trade rumours that I think will worry Dan until we are past the trade deadline next week.

What I Saw

For me there’s only one place to start with the Sunday games that I watched this week and that is in Baltimore. The game started as a tight contest that the Bengals edged out 13-10 at half time, but the Bengals’ offence broke out in the second half as the defence clamped down after an early third quarter touchdown for the Ravens to turn a 17-13 deficit into a 41-17 statement win. Ja’Mar Chase had a two-hundred yard receiving day and the rookie receiver now has the most receiving yards through seven career games of any player in NFL history. The defence is what was winning game initially, but now it feels like both sides of the ball are coming together. The Ravens have no need to panic at 5-2 as there is plenty of season left to go and they have too much experience to fall apart after a bad game, but for now the Bengals deserve to be taken seriously, although that also involves dealing with expectations so let’s see what happens next week at the Jets.

The other of the early games I watched was the Kansas City Chiefs getting beaten soundly 27-3 by the Tennessee Titans. The thing I didn’t mention on the podcast this week is that it is really hard to get to four Super Bowls in a row, which is what the Chiefs are trying to do this season. It is even harder if you have not nailed your draft picks or all-in moves in free agency. The key players are there, but right now Patrick Mahomes is pushing and turning over the ball in a way he never used to. They need to find some way to exploit more space underneath or to challenge the two high safety looks that they are now seeing regularly as now the offensive production is slipping and the defence shows no sign of improvement. The Titans don’t exactly have a fearsome defence but had more than enough in this one and it was Ryan Tannehill throwing the ball that was as effective as anything on offence for the Titans, although seeing Derick Henry throw a touchdown pass was undeniably fun.

Finally, on Sunday night the Indianapolis Colts and the San Francisco 49ers took on each other and a bomb cyclone in a contest that was understandably heavy on the run game, particularly as at some poins throwing the ball looked like a quarterback’s nightmare brought to life. It’s not that often that you see two running backs from opposing teams run for matching one-hundred and seven yards and a touchdown from eighteen carries, but that’s what the 49ers Elijah Mitchell and Jonathan Taylor managed. The up and down nature of Jimmy Garoppolo season continued as he returned from injury but still hasn’t exactly convinced, while Carson Wentz still tries to do too much and has a nasty habit of in trying to make an impossible play simply giving the ball back to the opposition. The Colts have won three of their last four games after an 0-3 start so their matchup with the 5-2 Titans next week is a pretty huge contest but at least they seem to be finding themselves. As for the 49ers, you are beginning to hear enough questions about the job Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch are doing in building this team that there could be questions to face if things don’t start to improve. As good as a play caller as Shanahan is, his career record is 31-39 with only one winning season, though he did take his team to a Super Bow, but if anything it is play of both Garoppolo and Trey Lance that could be seen as the biggest questions for this franchise.

What I Heard

I exist in a state of quantum flux when it comes to discussion of the Deshaun Watson trade rumours, both amazed that any team would consider trading for a player with that litany of complaints and police charges against them and yet simultaneously not at all surprised because patriarchy and football.

One of the teams I didn’t mention on the podcast that has also been floated as a Watson desitination was the Washington Football Team, which I have to think Ron Rivera would oppose given the recent investigations into the Football Team for their toxic work environment, particularly for women. That said, while the NFL through Roger Goodell are stating that they have handled the situation well (there is no report to publish, although they are apparently cooperating with a request from the House Committee on Oversight and Reform for all documents and communications about the investigation into the workplace culture in Washington) you wonder whether Dan Snyder might make the trade, even if he is not running things at the moment..

What I Think

The Detroit Lions may be 0-7, but there are five teams below them in the DVOA rankings and frankly they threw the kitchen sink at the LA Rams on Sunday, made them work and so far this season have only been beaten badly by one team. I don’t think this looks like a winless team, they are still fighting for their coach, and they can perhaps look at the first year of Brian Flores in Miami where the Dolphins also lost their first seven games but closed out the season 5-4. The unfortunate thing for the Dolphins is that after going 10-6 last season, they have not kicked on this season, but to me that hints at how fragile a thing success can be in the NFL.

As a Bengals fan I was hoping for progress coming into the season and prepared for disappointment. I certainly was not expecting a 5-2 start that includes win in Pittsburgh and Baltimore and whilst I’m certainly not expecting the end to one of our two playoff droughts, I can at least dream of it. The Dolphins were unlucky not to get into the playoffs last season with ten wins, but while there are several teams with as bad or longer droughts for appearances, the Bengals, Lions and Dolphins make up the top three longest playoff win drought. The injury to Andy Dalton in 2015 still haunts me as the team who could have been something, particularly as the Bengals haven’t had a winning season since and are without a playoff win in thirty seasons despite Dalton leading the Bengals to the playoffs for five straight seasons from 2011-2015. The Lions’ last winning season was in 2017 and after the spectacular failure of the Matt Patricia tenure the reboot is going to take time and with their one playoff win back in 1991 (a whole season more recent than the Bengals) their drought looks set to continue for a while. Going into the season the Dolphins would have looked best out of these three teams to end their own playoff win drought, and at twenty seasons they have some time before they catch the Lions and Bengals but this year does not seem destined for them to get that win.

The season is more random for teams than many like to admit, but these long streaks demonstrate that for some teams there are definite patterns, even if they felt more competitive to you as a fan at the time. The Marvin Lewis period transformed the Bengals from and national laughing stock to a credible franchise that included several incredibly talented teams threatening to break the playoff drought but they never quite could. There’s no guarantee that Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase can do better than Andy Dalton and AJ Green, or for that matter Carson Palmer and his talented offence so yes I’m cautious, but I am definitely enjoying the game right now.

What I Hope

I have two hopes this week. I really hope that the Bengals are focussed and beat the Jets to maintain their run as there is a lot of season left and they really can’t afford to drop winnable games. I also hope that the Dolphins give Dan something to be happy about come Monday.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

The Season Starts to Take Shape

22 Wednesday Sep 2021

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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AFC West, Andy Dalton, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Chandler Jones, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Jalen Hurts, Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Burrow, Jusint Fields, Kansas City Chiefs, Kyler Murray, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Lamar Jackson, Las Vegas Raiders, Marquise Brown, Matthew Stafford, NFC West, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill

After last week’s hubris I won’t be making any claims about schedules so let’s get looking at week two, which had losses for both TWF teams but some cracking contests so let’s see how things are shaping up in the early season.

What I Saw

I’ll start with the Bengals loss against the Bears that finished 20-17 despite a fourth quarter comeback from the Bengals, which had to contend with a hat trick of interceptions for Joe Burrow including a pick-six and another INT that setup one of the Bears’ two fourth quarter field goals. The really frustrating thing is that the Bengals defence looked pretty solid, despite giving up a touchdown to Andy Dalton in the first quarter they held the Bears to field goals the rest of the way. If the Bengals’ defence might be taking some kind of shape (and it really should given the dollars they have invested in it), the familiar story of offensive line problems seems to still be there, as well as a lot of empty formations that doesn’t exactly do a lot to stop Burrow taking hits, although the running game didn’t help give them much balance either.

As for the Bears, you can certainly see the potential of rookie quarterback Justin Fields and at this point you wonder whether Dalton will get the starting job back once he’s recovered from the bone bruise in his knee. The Bears’ defence sneaks into the top ten by DVOA and looked solid against the Bengals, even if the o-line troubles probably helped but I think we’re going to need a couple more weeks to truly get a feel for where the Bears are and there narrative is going to be about the quaterbacks for a while yet.

The other of the early Sunday games I watched was the 49ers taking on the Eagles in Philadelphia. The 49ers stayed out east having visited the Lions in week one and ran out 17-11 winners, but it was an odd contest for them. On defence they mostly controlled the Eagles offence, given up a lot of running yardage but not a lot passing (the Eagles did in fact out gain the 49ers in yards) and only conceded the one touchdown late in the game. However, it was more the 49ers offence that was really puzzling as their commitment to the run was there as always but was not efficient although they did eventually get one hundred yards. However, the passing game struggled early, with Jimmy Garoppolo missing throws early although he settled down over the course of the game, but whilst his completion percentage was good by the end of the game, his twenty-two completions only yielded one hundred and eighty-nine yards. It’s early in a long season and the 49ers are once again dealing with some injuries but whilst I expect them to be competitive, I’m just not sure how good they can be even if they are unbeaten so far.

The Eagles looked to be what I thought they were coming into the game, strong line play on both sides of the ball will keep them in games and I’m looking forward to seeing how they do in prime time against the Cowboys this coming Monday. The questions are again around the offence and like so many teams the Eagles are trying to work out what they have a quarterback. Certainly, second year quarterback Jalen Hurts is a threat on the ground, and all the usual run options plays were present, but he managed the odd combination of a completion percentage in the low fifties, but his twelve competitions yielded one more yards than the Garoppolo’s and the Eagles were a couple of near misses from having some very big plays. The Eagles have plenty of room to develop, and a 1-1 start is a solid beginning, but we’ll know a little bit more about them after week three.

The final game I saw was the Sunday night game that I’m sure enthralled many as the Baltimore Ravens hosted the Kansas City Chiefs and the home fans saw Lamar Jackson convert a fourth down to seal his first win against the Chiefs 36-35. It was a great game to watch as it features two quarterbacks capable of making you question how they did what you just saw, even if it is in different ways. Jackson is not a top level passer, but makes up for it with his legs, racking up another hundred yards on the ground and a pair of touchdowns to make up for the two interceptions he threw. The Ravens defence were focussed on Tyreek Hill, limiting the Chief’s number one receiver to three receptions for fourteen yards, but Patrick Mahomes was more than happy to distribute the ball to his other receivers with eight different players catching passes and Travis Kelce finishing the game with one hundred yards and a touchdown. To be fair, the Ravens had their own one-hundred-yard receiver in Marquise Brown but their shortfall in passing yardage was more than made up by the two hundred and fifty-one total rushing yards. There are still concerns about the Raven’s offence on obvious passing downs, but their offence is built differently and did enough to beat the Chiefs.

There might in fact be cracks showing in this iteration of the Chiefs, they are still terrifying on offence, but the defence is currently ranked thirty-first by DVOA and as good as their offence is, they need to get some stops or turnovers to make them less reliant on Mahomes and the offence. It’s still early in the season so I’m not pushing the panic button yet, but it’s definitely something worth keeping an eye on because to sustainably win, and challenge for the Super Bowl you need a defence that is good enough and through two games that hasn’t looked to be the case for the Chiefs.

For the Raven this win is particularly impressive given the injuries that they are already dealing with, but they are another team where it might be worth keeping an eye on their defensive ranking, but at least they have the history of competence on that side of the ball. The big question is whether they can be good enough on offence in high leverage moments as the days where you could win with stellar defence and competent offence have been replaced by the inverse, but it would be great to see a team win big with a different formula.

What I Heard

It’s been an interesting week for NFL media, a lot of the early coverage is either hot takes, or knowing over-reaction, which makes sense as it generates content whilst we work out how good the various teams are. The NFL is such a fluid league that even with a relatively sure quantity like the Chiefs, there are questions about them and already we have one or two teams slated to be bad play better than expected, even if actual wins are as low as expected. It’s such a short season with so much variance that we should be very careful to read too much into two games.

What I Think

I mentioned this whilst recording the podcast last night, but both West Divisions are looking impressive this year.

In the AFC the Raiders and Broncos are unbeaten, and the Chargers and Chiefs are lurking below them at 1-1 and whilst I’m sure this picture will become clearer in the coming weeks, it’s certainly somewhere between a good to promising start for all four teams and I’m intrigued at how the Broncos and Raiders build on their early success.

Meanwhile, in the NFC West there are three unbeaten teams in the Rams, 49ers, Cardinals with the Seahawks sitting right behind them on 1-1. This has been a tough division for several years, and while I have my concerns about the 49ers right now, the early returns on the addition of Matthew Stafford to the Rams has been impressive, whilst Kyler Murray looks more like himself with the Cardinals this season and their defence is currently ranked sixth by DVOA and I am looking forward to seeing Chandler Jones who had five sacks in the Cardinals’ opening game. When you talk about the Seahawks, you’re expecting tough defence and an offence focussed on running the ball, which was the formula that they tried to revert to during the second half of last season. However, once again their offence ranks higher by DVOA than their defence and whilst I expect them to compete for the playoffs as they always do, I am intrigued to see the new offence and how it evolves over the season.

What I Know

The Bengals have an interesting game coming up against the Steelers, which as much as fans of the Bengals sports-hate the Steelers, it can’t be a true rivalry until the Bengals win a lot more games. There are enough injuries floating round the Steelers for there to be flutters of hope in my fan heart, but I know that it’s unlikely the Bengals will win. Still, strange things can happen so we shall just have to see.

What I Hope

Right now, my hope is that one of the Dolphins or the Bengals will put an offensive line together that enable their young quarterbacks to maximise their potential but I’m not sure we’ll see that any time soon.

The Disappointed Eighteen – NFC Edition

09 Saturday Jan 2021

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Andy Dalton, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Bob Quinn, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Carson Wentz, Christian McCaffrey, Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, Dalvin Cook, Dan Quinn, Daniel Jones, David Tepper, DeAndre Hopkins, Detroit Lions, Disappointed Eighteen, Doug Pederson, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jalen Hurts, Jason Garrett, Jerry Jones, Jim Caldwell, Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Judge, Josh Allen, Justin Jefferson, Kliff Kingsbury, Kyle Shanahan, Kyler Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Matt LaFleur, Matt Patricia, Matt Rhule, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Mike McCarthy, Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Raheem Morris, Randy Moss, Robert Saleh, Russell Wilson, San Francisco 49ers, Saquon Barkley, Seattle Seahawks, Stefon Diggs, Thomas Dimitroff

Welcome to part two of my rundown of the disappointed eighteen teams who did not make the 2020 NFL play-offs.

In this post I shall be looking at the NFC conference and I’ll work in ascending number of wins and descending draft order.

The cap numbers for next season still come from spotrac.com and the ranking/numbers were right at time of posting with an assumed team salary cap of $175 million.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12)

The Falcons never seem to have quite got over their loss in the Super Bowl back at the start of 2017 even though they got back to play-offs the following year, and after two losing season and an 0-5 start the Falcons let go both head coach Dan Quinn and GM Thomas Dimitroff. The Falcons fortunes picked up initially under interim head coach Raheem Morris who went a very respectable 4-2 in his first six games in charge of the Falcons, but they then lost five straight to finish out the season. It was a strange year for Matt Ryan who threw for over four and a half thousand yards and twenty-six touchdowns to eleven interceptions, but the timing of those interception often seemed to be poor. An offensive ranking of twenty-first undermined and average defence but it is interesting to see the Falcons picking fourth by their record but were ranked seventeenth overall by DVOA. Rebuilding this team could a difficult task, Matt Ryan might have a few years left in him at 35, but this is a team who are $32 million over the 2021 cap, behind only the Eagles and the Saints in terms of being over the cap. There are some painful decisions to make and unsurprisingly for a team picking in the top five, a lot of work to be done but this is one of those situations where we shall have to see what vision their new GM sells to ownership and how well they can implement it. It’s not like there are no good players in Atlanta, but there are a lot of questions and I simply do not know how the Falcons will bounce back next season.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1)

I can see why the three teams who are the most over the cap got there, the Saints are trying to maximise their chances of getting back to the Super Bowl at the end of their Hall of Fame quarterback’s last season, whilst both the Falcons and Eagles have been to the Super Bowl in the last five seasons. However, if the Falcons never managed to get over their loss, the Eagles might not have moved past their win. The Eagles roster has frequently been spoken of as one of the deepest in the league in the last few season seasons, including by myself, but familiar names have not saved them from injuries and the slow decay over seasons that finally tipped into losing this year. Worse still, their franchise quarterback Carson Wentz who had to watch their Super Bowl win from the side-lines in 2018 fell apart this season, which having signed a four-year $128 million extension in 2019 that kicks in this season causes all kind of problems this off-season. Carson Wentz was dropped for rookie Jalen Hurts towards the end of the season and it has been stated that Wentz’s relationship with head coach Doug Pederson has completely broken down, but Wentz simply cannot be cut. Wentz will count as $34.5 million on the cap next season and there would be a cap hit of $59 million if he was cut. I’m not sure what cap tricks can be pulled, but at $74 million over the cap, and the salary number is expected to down next season because of the lost game day revenue, there are huge questions about what can be done in the off-season. I am no capologist and I don’t cover the off-season in granular detail, but I will be watching with the situation in Philadelphia with interest. I certainly can’t predict a rapid turn around given this franchise doesn’t look to have functioned to the same level since a number coaches left Pederson’s staff after the Super Bowl win. I do wonder how long the owner’s patience will last if things don’t turn around quickly next season though.

Detroit Lions (5-11)

I left the possibility that Matt Patricia could surprise me before the season, but I did not foresee the Lions improving that much this season and that was very much the case. I questioned Patricia’s ability to create a good defence outside the environment of the Patriots where he made his name as a defensive coordinator, and sure enough they finished this season ranked thirty-second in the league by DVOA at the end of the season. Patricia was let go at the end of week twelve having fallen to 4-7 after a blow out loss to the Texans on Thanksgiving along with GM Bob Quinn. Since letting go of Jim Caldwell the Lions have had three seasons with double digit losses so they need to get the hiring decisions right this off-season. As discussed on the podcast this week, the Lions have the second longest play-off win drought in the NFL (second only to the Bengals) but twenty-nine years is a long time to wait for a play-off win! The Lions are not in desperate cap trouble, but $6 million under when you have the worst defence in the league does not give you a lot of options to work with so this is another team that needs the right GM to build a franchise up over a number of years. There is talk that perhaps they should trade quarterback Matthew Stafford and rebuild from the ground up, but at thirty-two he should have a few good years left though he may fancy a change of team if the right opportunity presents itself. There is too much uncertainty right now to predict how the Lions will fair, but I have a feeling that a multi-year rebuild is coming.

Carolina Panthers (5-11)

This was always going to be a tough season for the Panthers who were starting a major rebuild with first time NFL head coach Matt Rhule and a curtailed pre-season. They lost their first two games, but then won their next three despite Christian McCaffery being unavailable due to injury (a situatin that was the case more often that not in 2020) and having heard Rhule on the Peter King’s podcast I was really impressed with how things were shaping up for the Panthers under their new head coach. Unfortunately, what followed was five straight losses and the Panthers were only able to get two more wins over the rest of the season. The Panthers made the decision to move on from GM Marty Hurney who has an overall record of 106-32 with the Panthers but 16-30 since he re-joined in 2017. The Panthers only have marginally more cap space to play with than the Lions so this is yet another franchise who look like they are in for a patient rebuild, but we will have to see and certainly owner David Tepper is not shy of making changes now he has had the team for a while. I still have a good impression of Matt Rhule but it looks like there is a lot more work to do and at some point the question of a franchise quarterback is going needs to be dealt with.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

I am almost not sure where to start with the Cowboys who were much fancied going into the season under new head coach Mike McCarthy who started his time in Dallas going 1-4 despite Dak Prescott playing very impressively. Unfortunately, then things went from bad to worse in game five when Prescott went down to a horrible ankle injury that helped turned the sputtering 1-4 start into a 2-7 record before the bye. Things improved in the home run of the season with the Cowboys maintaining a winning record and went into week seventeen with a shot of winning the NFC East. However, a woeful performance from backup quarterback Andy Dalton saw them lose the game as Dalton slipped to a 4-5 record as the starter this season. The Cowboys will face more off-season turmoil about getting Prescott signed to a long term deal but at least he should be fit for the start of next season. The real concern though is the defence, which slipped from sixteenth in the league by DVOA in 2019 to twenty-fourth and the Cowboys go into 2021 with £10 million of space to sign a quarterback so the route to a defence surely lies through the draft and better coaching. It was an odd season for a new coaching staff to take control so you might feel that it is unfair to judge McCarthy too harshly, but it is worth pointing out that McCarthy went 11-16 in his last two seasons with the Packers and his successor Matt LaFleur has gone 26-6. I have concerns about how the Cowboys run by Jerry Jones and how good the coaching staff are so whilst I’m not saying the Cowboys can’t compete next year, they have not been able to compete consistently for a reason which makes it hard to expect good things next season.

New York Giants (6-10)

The New York Giants were understandably frustrated when the Eagles pulled Jalen Hurts at the end of a close game they eventually lost against the Washington Football Team, handing the NFC East to the capitol, but with only six wins the Giants really only have themselves to blame about not making the play-offs. Their season started badly with the Giants going 0-5 and losing Saquon Barkely for the season after only two games. The Giants got their first win for rookie head coach Joe Judge against Washington, but that was followed by two more losses until the Giants went to Washington and swept their divisional opponents. This was followed by two more wins against the Eagles and the Bengals before their marquee win of the season, a masterpiece of a defensive performance that saw the Giants hold Russel Wilson and the Seahawks to twelve points in Seattle and come away with the win. At this point in the season I was really becoming very impressed with the coaching job Judge was doing and fancied them to make a run at the division. To be fair, they were still in the race on the final day despite losing the next three games, but the Giants needed Washington to lose because the their twenty-sixth ranked offence couldn’t score enough points for them to maintain their challenge for the division. I am not convinced by Daniel Jones as a quarterback or for that matter, Jason Garrett as an offensive coordinator but I do feel like this season finally represents progress after three seasons of failing to make the play-offs, even if the Giants still recorded double digit losses. However, the slow progress will have to continue with the Giants over the cap by $9 million next season, and I do think they need another quarterback, but with the arrow finally pointing up and a talent like Barkley returning next year they could well be a surprise in the NFC East.

San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

The 49ers season seemed doomed from the start due to injuries, a problem that followed them all through the 2020 season. Once again Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t make it through an entire season with the teasing quarterback only playing in six games this season and it would not exactly be a surprise to see the 49ers make a move at that position in the off-season. Still, Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have created a great culture in San Francisco so this 6-10 feels a lot more positive than how a lot of teams might feel. Certainly defensive coordinator Robert Saleh did well to get his unit to a ranking of sixth in the league overall by DVOA and it would not be a surprise to seem him as a head coach next season. The 49ers have cap space next season but not necessarily enough to sign a big contract quarterback without some clever moves, but I do expect them to compete again next season. If they can finish the regular season ranked eleventh overall by DVOA despite their raft of injures then with a bit of luck they can sustain a challenge in the very competitive NFC West.

Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

It’s perhaps not a surprise that the Vikings struggled on defence this season given that they let 223 collective career games in their secondary walk out the locker room in the off-season. I should also mention that the Vikings were part of that rare thing, the NFL trade that benefited both participants. The Vikings sent disgruntled receiver Stefon Diggs to the Bills and he transformed the Bills’ offence alongside Josh Allen’s remarkable development, whilst the Vikings used the pick they acquired to draft Justin Jefferson who set a Vikings rookie receiving record which is no mean feat when the pervious record holder was Randy Moss. The Vikings actually made fifteen draft picks in a year with no proper off-season programme so they did pretty well to reach 7-9 with a defence that Mike Zimmer called the worst he ever coached. That said, the defence still ranked eighteenth by DVOA and if anything, it was the problems the Vikings had with winning when running back Dalvin Cook wasn’t available that stopped them from making the play-offs. Still, under Mike Zimmer the Vikings have been to the play-offs every other year and while this is only his second losing season since his first with the team in 2014, I don’t see any major reason why they can’t challenge again next season. Their path there still might not be that straight forward though as they are $17.5 over next year’s cap and so once again they will have to rely on draft picks and coaching. I wonder who else on the current roster might be let go. However, given the Vikings have been consistently able to be competitive I expect them to be so again next season.

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

The Cardinals pulled off something of a coup in the off-season, acquiring receiver DeAndre Hopkins in a trade with the Houston Texans that most would say the Cardianls got the better of the deal. They also got off to a good start this season going 5-2 before their bye, but were unable to keep pace with the more experienced play-off contenders in the NFC West and just missed out on the play-offs. Though there were no announcements, it seemed like second year quarterback Kyler Murray was dealing with some kind of injury mid-season as there was a notable drop in his rushing production for a number of weeks and this seemed to hamper the offence. Still, they got back to winning ways towards the end of the season but losses to two divisional opponents in the final two weeks sees them on the outside of the play-offs looking in. A year of development is nothing to be sneezed at, but while the three more wins and ten place improvement in defensive ranking by DVOA from their 2019 record is good, as is the thirteenth ranking by overall DVOA, the slip in offensive ranking given the acquisition of Hopkins is a concern. This might all be down to the injury I suspect Murray was dealing with, but I have heard enough concern about head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s play calling and game management to be very curious to see if they can improve again next season or if they hit a plateau or get worse. The Cardinals don’t have a huge amount of cap space available to them next season, and we are once again wondering if this is the last season for veteran receiver Larry Fitzgerald, but I wonder if the results of season rest on the lessons the coaching staff learnt this year and whether they can apply suitable changes to get them over the top next season. To me this is one of the more interesting situations in the league going into next season so I will be watching with interest.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average, and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Nine

05 Thursday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Aaron Rodgers, Dallas Cowboys, Dalvin Cook, George Kittle, Green Bay Packers, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kyle Shanahan, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Football Team, Week 9 Picks

It’s been a weird couple of days, and throw in the first site visit for work in months and my writing time has simply disappeared. The major news appears to still be Covid-19 with the 49ers having to close their facilities and the Packers missing multiple running backs through injury/Covid-19, but tonight’s game is still going ahead. So, as the NFL is waiting for no-one this season I guess I had better get on with Competition Thursday for week nine!

Gee:	Week 8: 8 –6	Overall: 57 – 63
Dan:	Week 8: 7 – 7	Overall: 63 – 57

Packers @ 49ers (+2.5)

This is a bit of a cheat line for us, as with the injuries and disruption to the 49ers preparation with their facility closed due to positive Covud tests the consensus line I am seeing is already up to +7 so whilst it’s always possible that the 49ers could spring a surprise, when you add both one of the best tight ends in the game in George Kittle and starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to the already extensive 49ers’ injury list it seems unlikely. I’m a little nervous about the Packers run defence going against a Kyle Shanahan co-ordinated offence but the Packers, whilst having their own injury/Covid-19 cluster at running back, have Aaron Rodgers and only need to win by a field goal to cover this line and I like that option.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Survivor Competition

Well, Dan changed his plan last week and took the Buccaneers against the Giants and won, whilst I had my third eliminating pick when the Packers had a dud against the Vikings and mainly Dalvin Cook (which in turn makes me marginally more worried about my pick above). This gives Dan a point lead as we go into week nine and Dan has gone for the Packers tonight as he doubles up on tonight’s game. I’m taking a leaf out of his book and I’m going for the Patriots at the Jets, which might be a slightly risky pick but hopefully will pay off in the long run.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 6

Week 9 Selection:

Gee: Patriots
Dan: Packers

Bold Prediction of the Week

I once again made two bold predictions this week, which as much anything is because I’m struggling to find them and am never sure that Dan will allow them but for week nine they are:

The New York Giants will beat the Washington Football Team.
The Jets will score more points against the Patriots than the Cowboys will against the Steelers.

If I manage another 50/50 week I will be very happy.

That’s All Folks

06 Thursday Feb 2020

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Andy Reid, Damien Williams, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kansas City Chiefs, Kyle Shanahan, NFL, NFL Trivia, Patrick Mahomes, Philadelphia Eagles, Sammy Watkins, San Francisco 49ers, Super Bowl, Tyreek Hill

Here we are, the season is done, and we have our Super Bowl champions.

What I Saw

Kansas City Chiefs: 31 – San Francisco 49ers: 20

There was only one game on everybody’s mind this week and what a fascinating contest it was. For three quarters the 49ers looked like the better team and maintained a lead, but in the end Patrick Mahomes found something of his normal form and was able to help the Chiefs offence stage another comeback to clinch the game with a score that in truth slightly flatters the Chiefs.

The marquee matchup of this game was the 49ers defence against the vaunted Chiefs offence, but through pass rush and coverage the 49ers were able to make Mahomes have one of his worst games in a Chiefs’ uniform. However, the Chiefs were clearly expecting the 49ers game plan to an extent as they ran the ball well with Damian Williams who amassed over one hundred yards, sealing the game with a thirty-eight yard touchdown as the Chiefs ran out the clock. However, it was only in the fourth quarter when the quick strike resurfaced for the Chiefs that the offence truly came alive when Andy Reid ran a play that Mahomes had been asking to try again. The third-year quarterback was able to connect Tyreek Hill for a forty-four yard play, which was the first big chunk pass of the game. Within a minute on the game clock the Chiefs scored their first touchdown since the first quarter and began the twenty-one-point swing that took place in the final seven minutes that also included a thirty-eight yard pass to Sammy Watkins to setup the second touchdown before Williams sealed the game with the aforementioned run.

As for the 49ers, they came up with the right game plan and so nearly executed it well enough to win the game. They generated over three hundred and fifty yards of offence and into the fourth quarter they looked like the more likely team to win. There were a couple of occasions where they came away with field goals, which would have frustrated Kyle Shanahan, and Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t execute to the level they were both hoping. In this game Mahomes actually threw the same number of interceptions as Garoppolo but we left this game with some questioning whether the 49ers QB is a true franchise quarterback. This might be a little unfair as Mahomes is an exceptional talent and this is now the second Super Bowl where Shanahan was coordinating the offence and his team couldn’t hold a lead. The question I do think is worth looking at is how much the 49ers tried to run the ball given that they only had twenty-two carries in this game at well over six yards a carry. This is actually less carries than the Chiefs, which you would not have expected going into the game. However, there is much to love about the 49ers offence, whose one receiving touchdown was to a fullback and who also accounted for the 49ers longest receiving play.

In the end, despite history seeming to favour the more well-rounded team with the better defence in the Super Bowl, it was Andy Reid with Patrick Mahomes and that offence who found enough to win the game whilst their defence did enough to get the win. I’m sure the 49ers will be really hurting after this loss, but both teams are relatively young so whilst they will be different next season, both look in good shape to have a run at the Super Bowl next year. Given the quality of this game I think we could all live with that.

What I Heard

I have to report that Dan was not that impressed with the half time show, but I enjoyed it. Although it is interesting to compare some of the complaints about the risqué nature of some of it to what was happening during Janet Jackson’s performance before her legendary wardrobe malfunction.

The reason I started there, apart form the play on words, is that the NFL media has covered the win and almost already moved on to off-season news.

I’m not ready to go there quite yet, although I will have to seek out the Mic’d Up segments which are always entertaining if not informative.

What I Think

I was surprised by how much I was supporting the Chiefs and Andy Reid getting that Super Bowl win in this game, and that now ends the argument that Reid can’t win the big one and likely cements his place in the Hall of Fame.

Given how many games he has won for so long, and the innovation he has show throughout his career I think there was a pretty good case for him getting in anyway. This season we had two teams in the Super Bowl that apart from division rivals, noone would particularly object to see winning. I thought it was a lovely touch for the Eagles to show their support for their former coach, and it does also demonstrate some of how well Reid is liked around the league.

What I Know

I will be taking some time off for a couple of weeks, but I will try to follow something of the pattern of last year’s off-season and do a couple of off-season posts either on the next step of the year-round football news cycle or what I’ve dug into.

I would love to have the time to dig into the coaching tape of this game at some point, and later in the year I very well might but things have been very difficult this season for reasons outside of football so I am ready for a break.

There may be some changes in process and posts next season, I evaluate the blog every year but there may be some factors that could affect my writing time so we shall have to see how things shake out. Rest assured though, that The Wrong Football will be back in some form for our seventh regular season at the start of September.

What I Hope

That everyone has a productive off-season and fills the time spent on football reading books, pursuing other hobbies or relaxing. We only have so much time gifted to us so make sure you use it wisely.

And now, for the last time this season over to Dan’s Dad:

The 2019 Trivia Contest

‘They Think It’s All Over…

Kenneth Wolstenholme’s famous Wembley commentary in 1966 is no less relevant now than it was then.

The Superbowl was acknowledged as one of the best and a comeback worthy of Lazarus! It rounds off a season in which the un-predictable became a regular feature but with some teams coming to the fore that were not always the usual suspects. One big event in 2019-20 was, of course the Pats failing to win playoff game with the inevitable Brady-fest which followed it. That could be an interesting story to play out on the way to next season.

For one last time this term we move to the quartet of questions for the final week. We begin with Dan in the lead by 33 to 30 and this week its 3 points per correct answer.

We started in Tampa and asked: The Bucs played in only one tie game in the 20th century. Who was it against?

Well the guesses were the Lions or the Falcons, but unfortunately for Dan and Gee the team was actually the Packers.
This happened on October 12, 1980. Packers kicker Tom Birney missed a 36 yard field goal attempt as time expired, ending the game in a 14-14 tie. The two teams finished the 1980 season tied for last place in the NFC Central at 5-10-1.

It’s the ‘tied for last place’ that did it for me, devious to the end.

Right next was Tennessee and the simple question was: Which player started at quarterback for the first game of the 2005 season against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh?

Both correctly identified Steve McNair so it’s 3 points each.

On now to DC where I threw in this, the Washington Redskin franchise began in 1932 in the NFL. What was the team’s name in that season?

This one threw me too, but the backstory is more than interesting.

We got some interesting fantasy team names but the answer is Boston Braves.
The franchise was named the Boston Braves for their first season, then changed their name to the Boston Redskins for four seasons before moving to D.C. Their first season in 1932 brought them a 4-4-2 season record, for a fourth place finish of eight teams. The Chicago Bears won the title in the season for going 7-1-6, although the runner-up Green Bay Packers went 10-3-1.

And finally…

Also with a Washington and a Superbowl element I finished with: Which famous football czar ended his career in Washington as coach.

Czar was perhaps a bit of a giveaway, but both successfully went for Vince Lombardi – 3 points each.

For the record Daniel Snyder wasn’t the first Redskins owner to spend a lot of money to bring in a veteran coach and players and try to win an instant championship but Lombardi was too good to overlook.

Which brings us to the final scores and we end with Gee on 36 against Dan’s 39.. So congratulations and commiserations in equal measure to the pair who have been tormented for another season which I’d say was probably my most devious yet. On well – Onwards and Upwards.’

I would like to send my congratulations to Dan on a well-earned trivia victory and thank Dan’s Dad for his efforts all year as well as congratulate him again on keeping the blog in Vikings’ purple and gold. I’m sure he’s already working on more sneaky or downright evil questions to ask us for next season.

This blog wouldn’t be the same without either Dan or his Dad, and I am very grateful for their involvement and all the effort they put in.

Until next time, live long and prosper!
Gee

Super Bowl Sunday

02 Sunday Feb 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Andy Reid, Arik Armstead, Dan Marino, Deebo Samuels, Emmanuel Sanders, George Kittle, Green Bay Packers, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kansas City Chiefs, Kyle Shanahan, Mecole Hardman, NFL, NFL Trivia, Nick Bosa, Patrick Mahomes, Pittsburgh Steelers, Sammy Watkins, San Francisco 49ers, Super Bowl, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Travis Kelce, Tyrann Mathieu, Tyreek Hill, Washington

Here it is the big day and the last game of the season, plenty to write about, but there is the final round of trivia to go through first.

Dan’s Dad asked us:

‘First stop this week are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, tell me:
The Bucs played in only one tie game in the 20th century. Who was it against?

Moving onto the Tennessee Titans so tell me:
Which player started at quarterback for the first game of the 2005 season against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh

At last we get into DC and for the Washington Redskins tell me:
The Washington Redskin franchise began in 1932 in the NFL. What was the team’s name in that season?

Trawling for questions throws up some interesting info and with the closing question for the season, which I predict will be got by both, is

Which famous football czar ended his career in Washington as coach?’

This is a mixed bag of questions for questions, some of which I think I might know and some that are a real shot in the dark, with the majority being the latter.

We’ll start with the opening question that very much falls into the shot in the dark category, but I am going to plump for on NFC team on the grounds as they play them more and going with Atlanta Falcons as a divisional opponent who have been around long enough to up the chances by having more games.

As for the Titans’ quarterback, my first thought was Vince Young, but I think that 2005 is a bit early so I’m going to plump for the only other Titans quarterback that I can think of from around this period and hope 3D isn’t living up to his nickname – that quarterback, Steve McNair

I have really struggled with the early franchise names and this is no exception. I have no memory or knowledge of a previous pace for Washington and it seems baffling that they changed to a name that many find offensive so I don’t know what they could have had before or if they were even in Washington. I’m going to have to try a total guess so how about the Washington Presidents? I’m sure it’s not that but I genuinely have no cluse.

This problem had me stumped the most, particularly with the whole football czar angle until I had slept on the question and instead of trying to pick out some complex link to a modern coach that I couldn’t work out, I had what I hope is a flash of inspiration. As I have very much discovered this season, my knowledge of NFL history is somewhat patchy, but for all that Vince Lombardi is forever associated with Green Bay, I think I remember listening to a podcast on him and unless I’m completely misremembering his final year of coaching was with Washington. I think…. Well that’s it, I can’t do any more this season so over to Dan:

‘Final week then, it’s all down to this! After having amassed a 3-point lead, I could grumble about this week being 4 points per question, but I shall resist! Couple of guesses, couple I know this week.

I’ve got a feeling that Tampa’s tie was this season and I think it was against the Lions – probably wrong but I’ll go with that.

For Tennessee, I’m slightly hesitant as I’m not sure if this guy was still there by 2005 but I’ll go with Steve McNair as I know he was in Tennessee for years and would have been roughly around this time.

The former name of the Redskins I have no idea of, so I’ll guess at the DC Defenders, and forfeit that question!

And finally for the bonus question, my first thought was John Madden, but Im fairly sure he retired as a Raider (or at least was there for years) and then the timing hit me – I’ll go with the trophy namesake, Vince Lombardi!

Enjoy the Bowl!’

Kansas City Chiefs Vs San Francisco 49ers

This is game has the potential to be one of the best Super Bowls we have had in a while, with a couple of outstanding play-calling coaches whose offences will have different approaches but are no less effective so let’s take look at the match-ups before I take a swing at how this game might go.

I’ll start with what is going to be the strength on strength match-up when the Chiefs have the ball. The Chiefs finished the regular season with the third ranked offence by DVOA but that doesn’t tell the whole story as Patrick Mahomes missed a pair of games after he dislocated his knee cap and it took several more weeks after his return to look like last season’s all conquering MVP. However, whilst he couldn’t match last years numbers the Chiefs finished the season winning six straight games and rolled right into the playoffs. There is a compelling argument for Mahomes to be the best quarterback in the league right now and with the speed that the Chiefs have at receiver this makes them one of the fastest strike offences in the league. If the combination of Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and rookie Mecole Hardman at receiver were not scary enough, the Chiefs also have one of the premiere pass catching tight-ends in Travis Kelce who actually led the team in receiving yards like this. Andy Reid has always liked his offence to throw the ball, and the devastating speed is how the Chiefs can be twenty-four points down in the second quarter of a playoff game and go into half time leading,

However, the 49ers had the second ranked defence in the league by DVOA in the regular season and will hope that they can stifle the Chiefs’ devastating speed with their four man pass rush and quality coverage. A lot of the pass rush plaudits have gone to rookie Nick Bosa, but they have five first round picks in their defensive line rotation and it is Arik Armstead who led the team in sacks. However, one of the important things in this game will be the defensive line’s ability to rush in a coordinated manner as apart from his remarkable ability throwing the ball, Patrick Mahomes is also a capable rusher as he demonstrated against the Titans with over fifty yards of rushing. If the 49ers hope to win with coverage, that will be tested by both the Chiefs’ team speed but also their pre-snap motion and the myriad ways of that Andy Reid likes to attack a defence. There will be screens a plenty the 49ers will be hoping to keep the Chiefs in front of them and have them consistently maintain long drives.

When the 49ers have the ball they will build of their running game, which they have lent on heavily in the post-season. One of the narratives of the build up as has been that the 49ers have lost faith in Jimmy Garoppolo, but the team have vehemently denied that in the build up this week and my mind can’t help but go back to the week fourteen game against the Saints where Garoppolo threw for nearly three hundred and fifty yards and four touchdowns. I suspect the 49ers will be hoping to run the ball and control the clock to an extent, but they will be aware of how the Chiefs sold out to stop the run against the Titans in the previous round and so there will be more passing in this game. The 49ers have their own quality receivers in Emmanuel Sanders and rookie Deebo Samuel, but whilst Kelce is one of the best pass-catching tight-ends in the league, this season George Kittle has established himself as one of the best all round tight-ends in the game who loves blocking as much as catching the ball and refusing to be tackled. I expect the 49ers to be a more balanced offence than the Chiefs, but with the speed the 49ers have at running back the are capable of deep strikes on the ground they will be hoping the mixture of outside zones and power running will still be effective against a defence that is likely to be setup to stop them running.

The Chiefs’ defence may only rank fourteenth in the league, but that is a twelve place improvement on where they ranked last year and with an offence as potent as Chiefs, they don’t need to be top ten for them to win the game. The concern is that their rush defence only ranks twenty-sixth so if they are to contain the run they may have to commit eight players to stop the run leaving the secondary exposed. In Tyrann Mathieu the Chiefs picked up a versatile safety who will be important in getting the defence lined up and it will be interesting to see how the Chiefs try to cope with the 49ers varied attack.

We have known for years that Andy Reid is an excellent coach, his teams are always competitive and the results of pairing him with a truly elite quarterback have been impressive. There have been questions about his clock management but this looks to be as good a team as he has ever had. This is not Reid’s first Super Bowl and there has been plenty of talk about this being his chance to secure a Hall of Fame slot. If Mahomes can stay healthy then there could well be more, but people thought that about Dan Marino and he famously never made it back to the Super Bowl so we can’t take it for granted. If Andy Reid has scars from his previous Super Bowl appearance then so does Kyle Shanahan who was the offensive coordinators for the Atlanta Falcons when they suffered the incredible turn around from the New England Patriots. This game pits two of the best offensive minds in the game against each other, and as good as Reid is coming off a bye you can argue that the 49ers have the better overall team.

I’ve heard the arguments for both teams, with the 49ers being tipped as the better overall team and others unwilling to pick against Parick Mahomes. I wouldn’t want to pick this game. I have seen Garoppolo keep his team in a shoot out with the Saints and win, but we should not forget the skills players that Mahomes have to work with. If the 49ers defence gets on top it could be a dour game but I think the most likely outcome is a relatively high scoring game and I have a feeling that the winner will be whichever team has the ball at the end. So much could happen, but I feel like this could be a truly exceptional game. There are no guarantees, but I think this last game of the 2019 season could for once live up to the hype, and I can’t think of a better way to finish the season.

Let’s settle in for the big one – as Super Bown LIV is here.

DVOA is Football Outsiders’ statistic to measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

The Divisional Disappointed

16 Thursday Jan 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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Aaron Rodgers, Any Dalton, Baltimore Ravens, Bill O'Brien, Carolina Panthers, Chris Ballard, Cleveland Browns, Derrick Henry, Deshaun Watson, DK Metcalf, Freddie Kitchens, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jimmy Haslam, Joe Brady, John Dorsey, Kansas City Chiefs, Kevin Stefanski, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Luke Kuechly, Mark Ingram, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Rhule, Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, Paul DePodesta, Pete Carroll, Playoffs, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, Tyler Lockett

The divisional games mostly lived up to expectations, the last NFL head coach was hired and new staff’s are beginning to take shape so let’s get going.

What I Saw

I’ve been delayed in getting to this week’s post by work and travel so I’m going to zip through the games a bit as I’m pretty sure you know what happened by now!

The San Francisco 49ers win was an impressive team effort based on a defence that limited the Vikings all game and running the ball. Jimmy Garoppolo had a quiet game, but the 49ers looked comfortable and will be confident going into the weekend having beaten the Packers 37-8 in week twelve, but more on the Packers in a moment.

The next Saturday game saw the Tennessee Titans pull of the shock of the weekend as they beat the Baltimore Ravens in a similar fashion to the previous game. The Titans were able to contain the Ravens’ offence, helped no doubt by the injury to Mark Ingram that lessened the impart of the Ravens running game. The Titans didn’t get a great game from Ryan Tannehill, but he did enough whilst Derrick Henry ran for nearly two hundred yards and combine that with special teams and the Titans deserve to be in the conference championship games.

That start of the Sunday pair of games saw a wild game where the Houston Texans produced an almost perfect quarter of football and went twenty-four points up in the second taking advantage of special team errors and Chiefs receivers dropping the ball. However, the Chiefs’ rust didn’t last for long and by half-time they had taken a lead as they scored an unanswered forty-one points. The Chiefs managed to score fifty-one points in three quarters whilst the Texans couldn’t do anything to stem the tide or get back into the game.

The final game of the weekend was the most competitive and was the only one to feature a real quarterback duel. For all that things aren’t exactly humming for the Packers offence, they were able to do enough to take and hold the lead. Down the stretch Aaron Rodgers got the first downs for the Packers not to have to face a final win the game drive from Russell Wilson. I’ll talk about how maddening the game plan was later, but Wilson almost singularly dragged the Seahawks back from 21-3 down to win the game and had them within a score with over nine minutes left in the game. However, as they have done all season, the Packers ran the ball well with Aaron Jones, played good defence and so didn’t need Rodgers to play to the level he had to previously to win games.

What I Heard

The Cleveland Browns have hired Vikings offensive co-ordinator Kevin Stefanski, which wasn’t a huge surprise as he was Paul DePodesta’s choice last season, and after the failure of Freddie Kitchens saw him fired after a year and lost John Dorsey his job it appears the Browns are swinging back behind the analytics model. The only worry is if things don’t turn around quickly it feels like Jimmy Haslam could pull the trigger to early but let’s see how this shapes now.

I also thought it interesting that fresh off helping LSU win the national title as their passing coordinator, that Joe Brady has been hired by the Panthers to their new offensive coordinator. The only way was down for Brady in the college ranks after the year that LSU had but by hitching his wagon to Matt Rhule and his seven year contract he should have time to find his feet in the NFL.

Whilst I’m talking about the Panthers, I just wanted to acknowledge the retirement of Luke Kuechly who was one of my favourite players to watch on coaching tape. He was a linebacker who always seemed to know what was going to happen, never seemed to put a foot wrong and clearly wishes he could still play. It’s not the all time career I said was possible a few seasons ago, the concussions and injuries put pay to that but eight years is five longer than average at one of the tougher positions to play in the NFL and he is a Hall of Fame player as far as I’m concerned. I’m glad he’s stepping away on his own terms. Very few players get to do that.

The Divisional Disappointed

This is going to be a painful section to write as I have a huge amount of affection for Mike Zimmer and what he did for the Bengals, but I’m beginning to think that the Vikings have a Marvin Lewis type problem. Now some might draw the comparison between Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton, but my worry is that Zimmer is clearly a good coach and taken the Vikings to the playoffs three times in his six years in charge. However, I’m not sure if he’s going to win the big one, and for me the problem is that he is too old fashioned in how he wants the offence to run, quite literally running the ball too much into a 49ers defence that was stuffing them. Now the pass rush of the 49ers played a huge part in thee Vikings’ offensive woes, but Cousins is now going to have his third play caller going into his third and final year with the Vikings. We shall have to see how next year’s team are assembled, but the defence is not getting any younger and when you have one of the best receiver pairings in the game should you be as reliant on the run game as Zimmer wants? I await Dan’s Dad verdict on this theory and would love to be proved wrong next season, but I have my concerns that the window for this current version of the team is closing.

The Baltimore Ravens had such a successful year and so the ending of it has to be particularly hard to cope with. Clearly they need to work out a plan B on offence, but this is not proof that you can’t win with Lamar Jackson who did things no quarterback has done before and is only twenty-two. Given the franchise stability you expect the Ravens to improve again in the offseason and they would be my favourites to win the AFC North next season and likely for several years to come. The questions about Jackson in the playoffs will remain until he gets a win, but it wouldn’t surprise me if next year the Ravens get that win and go deep into the playoffs.

The Houston Texans are a funny team to evaluate because this is the fourth time in his six years as head coach that Bill O’Brien has won the AFC South, and yet he has never totally convinced. This is the second year in a row that quarterback Deshaun Watson has got his team into the playoffs and he did all he could in this game, but there simply wasn’t enough around him to compete with the Chief’s offensive explosion of points. The truly worrying thing is that O’Brien is defending the trades he made and is keeping control, yet the all in moves got them one playoff win and a horrible loss. For all of Watson’s heroics, this does not look like a team capable of winning a Super Bowl and the Texans are now missing the draft picks they traded away to augment the roster in the offseason. They may well get away with it again next year if the Colts can’t find an improvement at quarterback, but Chris Ballard has been doing great work in Indianapolis and I wonder if the Texans fall back next season.

It could perhaps be argued that the Seattle Seahawks have if anything overachieved this season as they continue their rebuild, but with Russell Wilson they always have a chance. If anything that makes their continued insistence on over emphasising the run even more infuriating. In DK Metcalf they have a fearsome rookie receiver who combined with Tyler Lockett helped Wilson excel and yet in the biggest game of the year they managed a three runs then punt drive and gave Marshawn Lynch twelve carries two weeks after he came out of retirement that yielded only twenty-six yards. It’s one thing to use him short yardage as he scored touchdowns but with the injuries at running back not maximising Wilsons prime seems a flawed plan. I have a lot respect for Pete Carrol but I am beginning to wonder whether whilst I think floor for the Seahawks is always going to be high with him as coach, I’m not sure if they are going to reach their full potential with a quarterback as gifted as Wilson if they don’t build the offence round him. I’m sure that the Seahawks will be competitive next season, but I don’t know if they will be pushing for the Super Bowl.

What We’ve Been Asked

‘And then there were 4.

I wasn’t surprised that the Viking’s luck finally ran out as the 49ers season has been a good one and they have clearly earned their home field advantage. It was by no means a rout, but any defeat hurts especially when the Packers are still in the hunt. That was resolved by the meeting on Sunday of the Packers and Seahawks at Lambeau Field. A close affair, this went the way of the home team but only by 5. This brings the two 13-3 teams head to head in San Fran next weekend. My pick would be the 49ers but as a Viking I’m conditioned to support the Vikes and anyone playing the Packers. I think it will be close though.

In the AFC the Titans played up to their name to take down the 14-2 Ravens in the only road win of the weekend, and by a decent margin of 16 too. The final game of the weekend saw the Chiefs win a high scoring match-up racking up 51 points and I think they will fare well against the Titans whose luck has to run out sometime.

OK, now for the trivia and I know that I may have caused some frustrations in the ranks. Despite claiming to have no idea they both managed to come up with some answers nearing the truth. So here we go.

Q1. In a game against the Washington Redskins on October 13, 2000, Michael Lewis became only the 7th player in NFL history and the first Saint to do what?

Well he didn’t return two Punts in a game Dan, but he did return a punt and a kick-off for a TD in the same game. Gee also went for 2 kick returns so I feel I have to award them both the points for that, but I will take a note of Gee’s thoughts to bone up on rule changes for next season.

Q2. In a game against the Washington Redskins on October 30, 1955, Jim Patton was the first player to achieve what?

I think that Dan must have a camera in my flat as he managed to sniff out my being in one of my devious phases. Gee’s answer about a 50 yd field goal was good but didn’t quite bring home the points. Again we aren’t talking two punt returns but it is another case of a return a punt and a kick-off for a TD in the same game – Sorry it was too tempting when I found these two facts for two adjacent teams so once again despite having no clue they both delivered…

Q3. This should have been the easier one of this week’s questions and asked: From 1960 – 62 the NY Jets were known as what?

Well, Metros and Cities were believable offerings but the actual answer is the New York Titans.

So this week Dan and Gee score 4 and 2 points respectively bringing the total to 30-26 in Dan’s favour.

Now we reach the exciting Championship Week where the real questions get asked on the field but for those of us without helmets here’s the trivia.

We start at Oakland and the question is:
Q1. Who did the Oakland Raiders play when they made it to Super Bowl II?

Moving on we get to Philadelphia and I want to know:
Q2. Which Eagle quarterback threw for 464 yards in one game setting a team record?

Finally this week we arrive in Pitsburgh. So tell me:
Q3. In the Steelers’ first Super Bowl appearance, who did they defeat?

Well after this we just have the Pro-Bowl and Super Bowl to go, a sure sign we are at the business end of the year.

Happy Triving’

Saturday’s Divisional Games

11 Saturday Jan 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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Tags

Adam Thielen, Baltimore Ravens, Dalvin Cook, Derick Henry, George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Lamar Jackson, Marcus Peters, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, Nick Bosa, Patrick Ricard, Playoffs, Ryan Tannehill, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans

We get both number one seeds in action against the sixth seed today, so let’s see if either game has much chance of an update.

Minnesota Vikings (6^th) @ San Francisco 49ers (1^st)

The San Francisco 49ers started the season with an 8-0 run and finished the season 13-3, whilst they rank fifth overall in DVOA. The impressive resume won’t phase the Vikings who have already beaten the third seed Saints who ranked above the 49ers by DVOA.

The 49ers turnaround from last season is impressive even accounting for them having their franchised quarterback back from the injury that saw Jimmy Garoppolo only played three games last season. An offence that features an all pro tight-end in George Kittle who some are calling Gronk 2.0, a group of speedy running back and a quarterback whose completed nearly seventy percent of his passes. The defence is perhaps even better, second only to the Patriots in the DVOA rankings, with rookie Nick Bosa seeming to complete a fearsome defensive front.

Enter the Vikings, coming off their win against the Saints and looking more like their mid-season selves where they went 8-2 once they got the offence really working. It is clear how important running back Dalvin Cook is to the Vikings offence and Adam Thielen had a great game last week, although is dealing with cut that required stitches, which could bother him today.

This will be a fascinating contest between head coaches when the 49ers have the ball, but it looks like a great contest all round. I wonder if the Vikings playoff experience might tell at some point but it’s hard to pick an edge in this despite the seeding.

Tennessee Titans (6^th) @ Baltimore Ravens (1^st)

The Baltimore Ravens are perhaps one of my favourite teams to watch in the NFL right now, which is only tempered by the fact that the Bengals will have to compete them in the division for years to come. In his second season Lamar Jackson passed for three thousand yards, ran for another thousand as he dominated the league and made the extraordinary seem routine. When combined with a blitz heavy defence whose coverage improved with the acquisition of Marcus Peters you had the recipe for the best record in the record season. Hell, they even had a three-hundred-pound two-way play in Patrick Ricard who plays both fullback and defensive end.

The Titans go into Baltimore having knocked out the Patriots last week, will be hoping that Derrick Henry will be able to control the clock again and that Ryan Tannehill has a better game. However, I think this is a clearer contest as whilst the offences will be more conservative in the post-season, I think the Ravens are going to have too much offence for the Titans to keep up. For all of Henry’s two hundred rushing yards last, the Titans offence only scored thirteen points and I think that is going to be the problem.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

On the Road Again

11 Wednesday Dec 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Baker Mayfield, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, David Montgomery, Deonte Harris, Drew Brees, Emmanuel Sanders, George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Josh Allen, Mark Andrews, Mitchell Trubisky, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, NFL Officiating, Odell Beckham, San Francisco 49ers

With week fourteen in the books and me away working, I am going to give you another on the road edition that I would say will live up to the week’s action, but the game of the week was probably the game of the season and so I’m not sure anything will match up to it. Intrigued? I’ll get to the specifics in a minute.

What I Saw

The week started with a game that has had me kicking myself ever since as the Dallas Cowboys rolled into Chicago with their current brand of dysfunction and trebled down on their last two losses to the Vikings and Lions by losing to the Bears. The Cowboys actually started the game well, marching down the field on their opening possession and scoring a touchdown to take an early lead, but they surrendered this lead in the second quarter and were never able to get level again. Despite slightly out-gaining the Bears and winning the turnover battle the Cowboys fell to 6-7 but are still not out of the battle for the NFC East. I’m not sure you would exactly say that Mitchel Trubisky has turned things around, but he’s playing better and the Bears have found a better balance in the rushing attack with David Montgomery getting more carries and Trubisky using his running skills. It’s probably too late for them to get a wildcard berth given the strength of the NFC race which could see a team from the NFC hosting a wild card team with a better record, but the Bears are heading in the directio again. If you’re wondering why I’m kicking myself about this game, guess which team I backed in the picks competition…

I’ll start the Sunday games with the Cincinnati Bengals frustrating loss against the Cleveland Browns where the Bengals out-gained the Browns by one hundred and twenty yards, and up to half time looked okay on defence. However, a chronic problem in the red-zone and the Browns remembering they have two of the better running backs in the league saw a 13-14 half time deficit grow to a 19-27 defeat. There is still too much noise surrounding the Browns and both teams will feature in the what I heard segment so I’ll move on to the two match-ups I was really excited about going into the weekend.

I was really looking forward to seeing the Baltimore Ravens take on the Buffalo Bills and in particular how the Bills defence did against the Ravens’ high-flying offence. The quick answer is that for the most part the Bills did well, partly aided by an injury to Ravens tight-end Mark Andrews but they could only contained the Ravens. This is more than many have done this season, but it quickly became apparent that the problem was that the Bills’ offence couldn’t keep up as the Ravens defence caused Josh Allen too many problems. The Bills did manage a later sure after three field goals all game, but the late touchdown with two point conversion that pulled them to within seven was as close as they could get. The Bills are a good team with a tough run of games coming but still have a sound shot at a wildcard spot, but they are a step down from the elite of the AFC. The Ravens very much look to be the elite of the AFC right now.

This is probably a bad time to admit defeat, but as glorious as I think words are, I’m not sure they can do justice to the final game I watched this week. Hidden away in the early games was the San Francisco 49ers trip to face the New Orleans Saints and we ended up with a rip roaring 48-46 win for the 49ers to bounce back from last week’s loss to the Ravens. As can be seen from the score, despite featuring the second and fourth ranked defences by DVOA going into this weekend, this was very much an offensive slug fest with two of the league’s best game callers operating at something like the height of their powers. The Saints were boosted early by the speed of Deonte Harris in the returns game, but that wasn’t really needed as Drew Brees put in a vintage performance that saw him pass for five touchdowns and nearly three-hundred and fifty yards, with Brees throwing the deep ball as well as I have seen for a while. The 49ers were able to keep up thanks to Jimmy Garoppolo have a great game passing the ball, helped by how Emmanuel Sanders had integrated into the offence since his acquisition by trade and special mention should go to George Kittle who looked more like himself in the passing game and had one of the plays of the season, carry multiple Saints players down the field with one of them holding onto his face mark for at least five yards. It’s going to be a play that turns up in all the end of season montages, particularly as it was on a fourth and two play that kept the 49ers final drive alive. Either team could have won this game, and I would love for there to be a repeat in the playoffs, where both these teams are clearly headed,

What I Heard

There have been several topics running through the media the last couple of days. There were yet more blown calls and the most maddening thing about the new pass interference review system is the seemingly arbitrary way they are applied. Then again we had another game where the refs blew the whistle early and denied a potential touchdown scoring opportunity. I don’t entirely blame the refs as the game is fiendishly hard to officiate thanks to the complicated rule book, but when the wrong penalty yardage is being called then there needs to be a rethink and clearly the NFL agree as they announced a top-down review will take place in the off-season. Let’s see what that bring…

In the continuation of familiar themes we also have a new accusation of if not cheating, then dubious behavior by the New England Patriots. Thanks to their history most people will have made up their minds quickly when it was announced that a Patriots film crew had filmed the Bengals side-line this weekend. The explanation was that this was a TV crew making a documentary about working as a scout for the Patriots, who had permission from the Browns to be there. To be honest, I’m not inclined to disbelieve the explanation and I can’t find myself able to get worked up about it. This could be as I don’t expect the Bengals to have that much success against the Patriots this week, but it feels like after the previous instances people are desperate to leap on anything and it just doesn’t seem like that big a deal.

What I Think

There was a bit of a mess surrounding the Browns again this week as Baker Mayfield spoke about Odell Beckham’s medical situation, seemingly announcing that his receiver’s sports hernia problem had been mishandled by the Brown’s medical team. Now Mayfield clarified later and I don’t think it is a huge deal, but for a player who had not taken the next step this season and important off-season is looming.

I can’t say I have particularly warmed to Mayfield’s brash style, but as much as anything I wonder about who is helping him to lead and find his way. There is no history of success at the Browns, and so how is Mayfield meant to learn how to lead a professional team given the surrounding environment? I don’t know what will happen in the off-season, but unless there is some kind of change I’m not sure if he will be able to turn things around by himself going into next season.

What I Hope

I really enjoyed the 49ers at Saints game so I hope we get more played with that kind of execution, although I would be just as happy (if not more so) to watch defensive excellence.

Dragging Themselves into the Playoff Race

13 Wednesday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Brian Flores, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleve, Derek Carr, Eric Harris, Indianapolis Colts, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Mixon, Jon Gruden, Josh Jacobs, LA Chargers, Lamar Jackson, London Games, Miami Dolphins, Mike Tomlin, Minkah Fitzpatrick, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Patrick Ricard, Philip Rivers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Russell Wilson, Ryan Finley, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks

If the season in the NFL has been characterised by a few teams with good records and some with very bad records who are already turning their eyes to next season, then my season covering it has been one of scrambling to get posts out, and occasionally getting coaching tape watched. This week I find myself further behind in my process than I would like to be so let’s see what I can get out this evening.

What I Saw

The first game of week ten saw the Oakland Raiders host the LA Chargers and run out narrow 26-24 winners to get themselves into the playoff hunt despite a five week streak of road games that including them hosting the Bears in London. It was not a spectacular team performance, but Josh Jacobs gained one hundred combined rushing and receiving yards as the rookie running back continues to impress as the centre of Jon Gruden’s offence. I also through that Derek Carr looked sharp and in control of the offence, but with a total of only two-hundred and seventy-eight yards it was the team performance that got the win. The LA Chargers actually out gained the Raiders in total offence and rushed for one hundred and forty-six yards but the Raiders were able to get five sacks as they got pressure all game and picked off Philip Rivers three times with another voided by a holding penalty. That voided interception would have been Eric Harris’s third, but he still got over one hundred return yards and a touchdown from his two picks that counted. The Chargers have been competitive for a lot of their games despite their injuries but at 4-6 they would need a spectacular closing run to make the playoffs and I struggle to see them winning five or six of their remaining games to get to the nine or ten wins they’ll likely need to get to the post season.

On to the Sunday games and I’ll start with the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Baltimore Ravens, which was no contest and there’s really not a lot I can say further about the Bengals. There wasn’t much difference in result for the Bengals, although Joe Mixon got a hundred yards off the back of thirty carries as the offensive game plan was rejigged for rookie quarterback Ryan Finley’s first regular season start, who was not great and threw a couple of interceptions but wasn’t awful. The defence is awful though, but the worst part is that I love the Ravens setup at the moment, Lamar Jackson is a special player to watch and the spin move he pulled off in this game is going to be on many a highlight reel. In fact Jackson has the eleventh most rushing yards in the league as well as being top ten in passer rating so it’s no surprise that he is in the discussion for league MVP. I also want to mention Patrick Ricard who is playing both ways for the Ravens, lining up as a three hundred pound full-back and playing on the defensive line, picking up a couple of solo tackles and a sack in this game. There really a lot about the Ravens that the TWF team are enthused by, I just with they weren’t in the same division as the Bengals!

Speaking of the TWF team, the other Sunday game I watched was Dan’s Miami Dolphins taking on the Indianapolis Colts and recording their second win of the year. It wasn’t a pretty game, and the defences did most of the work, but despite all the roster turnover and being bottom of the DVOA rankings, Brian Flores has made the Dolphins competitive for several weeks and now has two wins. It may not be what they wanted in terms of draft position next year, but I think they have a coach that is going to maximise the influx of talent is coming. As for the Colts, they were also competitive and the roster is still playing well, but the injury to Jacoby Brissett was a quarterback injury too far and they will be hoping that Brissett will be there for the run of three division games that are coming up. They are not out of the playoff hunt, but as the situation muddies in the AFC this is a loss they could come to regret.

Finally, the Monday night game lived up to its top billing as the Seattle Seahawks won in the last seconds of overtime with a field goal separating them for the now beaten San Francisco 49errs. It was a topsy-turvy game where the 49ers looked the better team at the start with their defence halting the Seahawks and the 49ers taking a ten point lead that held up until half-time. However, the Seahawks took a lead in the third quarter that despite getting level multiple times, the 49ers were not able to regain and the worry for the 49ers is that when it really mattered, it was Russell Wilson who got his team into a position to win and got them over the line. It could well be different the next time these teams play, but Jimmy Garoppolo could have thrown a couple more interceptions in the second half if Seahawks defenders were able to hold onto the ball and that is a worry for the 49ers. We get a rematch in week seventeen and I am already looking forward to it!

What I Heard

I don’t have big central point to expand on here, but there’s several snippets that spring to mine. One is that the volatility of the league was on full display, and that’s not an excuse for another poor week picking.

The Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints, which I’m not sure anyone saw coming, although the points should have been tempting in this divisional game where both teams were coming off a bye. The interesting thing from my point of view was the talk of the Falcons pass rush chasing Drew Brees around, which is surprising as the Falcons pass rush has been struggling this season and the Saints offensive line is one of the better units in the league, so I’ll be taking a look at that on coaching tape if the opportunity arises.

What I Think

I am not ruling any team with five wins out of the playoff hunt, but there are a couple of those five win teams who have really pulled themselves back into contention rather than are still hanging on. The Raiders have won two weeks in a row to take second place in the AFC South, but the team who have caught my eye are another AFC North team, and not the Cleveland Browns. The Pittsburgh Steelers started the season 1-4, lost their franchise quarterback, and I was as surprised as anyone when their response was to trade for Minkah Fitzpatrick and not stock up picks and prepare for a high draft pick next year. In stead Fitazpatrick has helped the Steelers defence turn into the third best unit in the league by DVOA, and it is this defence and not asking backup quarterback Mason Rudolph to do too much that has enabled the Steelers to win four straight games and drag themselves back into the playoff hunt. I’m not saying they’ll get there, but the Steelers stand more chance than the Browns and that is thanks to some really impressive coaching by Mike Tomlin and his staff, plus the work done by the Steelers’ front office.

What I Know

I am still enjoying the NFL season despite the woeful performance of the Bengals, and I’m not feeling the grind as Dan and I have in the past back when we were podcasting, but it would be nice if work calmed down a little bit so I could dig in more. Sadly, I suspect that is unlikely and this is going to be the shape of the 2019 season. I shall make the best of it as I can, we are now past the halfway point of the regular season and before we know it the Thanksgiving games will be here and we’ll be staring at the playoff schedule.

What I Hope

I’ve not been able to settle on a singe NFC team to embrace to counteract the Bengals losing, but thanks to covering the league there’s plenty of intrigue and things to watch – but I hope the Bengals get a win at some point. It’s one thing for a season to go wrong and to get the first pick in the draft, controlling the whole might be exciting when we get there, but I wouldn’t wish a winless season on any player yet alone those playing for the team I support.

What I Saw

What I Heard

What I Think

What I Hope

What I Saw

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What I Think

What I Know

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What I Saw

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The 2019 Trivia Contest

Kansas City Chiefs Vs San Francisco 49ers

What I Saw

What I Heard

The Divisional Disappointed

What We’ve Been Asked

Minnesota Vikings (6th) @ San Francisco 49ers (1st)

Tennessee Titans (6th) @ Baltimore Ravens (1st)

What I Saw

What I Heard

What I Think

What I Hope

What I Saw

What I Heard

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What I Know

What I Hope

Minnesota Vikings (6^th) @ San Francisco 49ers (1^st)

Tennessee Titans (6^th) @ Baltimore Ravens (1^st)