Tag Archives: Week 9 Picks

2020 Week Nine Picks

08 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

So after a convincing win for the Packers on Thursday our focus moves to the Sunday slate of games and the injury/Covid-19 lists with several recognizable names getting activated, be it Dez Bryant getting elevated to the active roster for the Ravens, Christian McCaffery making the Panthers’ fifty-three man roster from IR or Matthew Stafford coming off the reserve/Covid-19 list having been in contact with someone who tested positive but has continued to test negative. It’s hard to keep track of everything, but this can and will have an effect on our picks so let’s take a look and do our best to sort through things as they stand.

Early Games:

For me there are two games that really jump out of the early slate are the Seattle Seahawks visiting the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens at the Indianapolis Colts.

The Bills maintained a two game lead on the Dolphins with a close fought win over the Patriots last week, but whilst they are still the favourites to win the AFC East, the Bills have not looked as they did in their opening four games. The defence that was top ten last year has slipped to twenty-third by DVOA whilst opposing defences look to have found coverages that have cooled Josh Allen’s hot start. The Seahawks defence is only ranked a couple of places higher by DVOA, but Russell Wilson is playing elite level quarterback and has led the Seahawks’ offence to third in the league by DVOA with the shackles finally off as Wilson throws them to big wins instead of relying on the run. The Bills are still a good team, but I don’t see them quite in the same league as the Seahawks and while I think this will be a good watch, I think the Seahawks are likely to prevail.

The Ravens are coming off a tough loss to the Steelers in a game they could have won if it were not for the pair of interceptions that Lamar Jackson threw, but as this was the Ravens second loss against a tope tier 2020 team there are plenty of questions now being asked about how good the Ravens are against the best franchises. In large part this is because the offense has not looked right this season, and whilst Jackson is still playing well, it feels like the Ravens offense has not been able to adjust to how teams are playing them this year and that there needs to be a more consistent third aspect to the passing game beyond Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. They travel to face a Colts team who have quietly got to a 5-2 record with a firth overall ranking by DVOA. Their loss to the Jaguars in week one does not look great, but apart from their loss to the Browns, the Colts have been competitive in every game and are coming off a convincing win against the Lions in Detroit last week. This is probably their toughest test of the season so far and if their top five defence and special teams can keep them in the game then I will be interested to see if Phillip Rivers can do enough with an offence that hasn’t quite found its feet to run out winners.

The other game that catches my eye out of the early schedule is the Chicago Bears taking on the Tennessee Titans. The Bears have scrapped their way to 5-3 on the back of the sixth ranked defence by DVOA and just enough production from a limited offence. The Titans have dropped two games in a. row to the AFC North with the loss to the Bengals last week being a serious upset. The line for this game sees the Titans bigger favourites than I think they should be, and I think this has the potential to be a close game given the Bears’ defence could be able to restrict the Titans offense whilst the Titans’ defence is struggling. I’m not sure it will be the most spectacular game but it will be a tense game with a lot at stake for both teams as they try to stay in the race for their respective divisions.

Other things of interest from the early games:

  • The Falcons have gone 2-1 since Raheem Morris has taken over as acting head coach and a healthy Julio Jones is also a big help, but I’m not sure what to make of them and they welcome a Broncos team fresh off a comeback win against the Chargers. The Broncos are 3-1 in their last four games, with the only loss to the frightening Chiefs but this game could reveal a lot about how these teams are going to look over the second half of the season
  • The Minnesota Vikings got a monster game from running back Dalvin Cook last week as he returned from injury and helped the Vikings get the upset win against the Packers. The Detriot Lions have failed to convince all season and I wonder how competitive they can make this game although getting Matthew Stafford back from the Covid-19 list should help.
  • The Carolina Panthers have dropped back to 3-5 having lost three then won three to start their season, but star running back Christian McCaffery is making his way back from injury and the Panthers are still ahead of where many thought they could be coming into the season. However, the loss to the Falcons last week will be disappointing and I wonder how competitive they can truly be against the Kansas City Chiefs who clearly wanted to make a statement against the Jets last week and look poised to be one of the teams to beat this season.
  • Just as I said that the Giants seemed to be coming together under first year head coach Joe Judge and were building something, there was the news about veteran receiver Golden Tate’s benching and he won’t be travelling with the team this week. The Washington Football Team have not convinced, even if they did beat the Cowboys last week and having already lost close to the Giants this season so I think this could well be another close game.
  • The Houston Texans are a team in flux and did not move JJ Watt or Will Fuller before the trade deadline, but they are still in purgatory and it hard to see that changing soon. They should have enough to beat a Jaguars team who flattered to deceive at the start of the season, but are as bad as many suspected coming into the season and who are turning to a different sixth round quarterback in rookie Jake Luton to evaluate what they have their whilst Gardner Minshew gets the chance to heal the strained ligament and multiple fractures in his right thumb.

Broncos @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Broncos
Dan’s Pick:     Broncos

Seahawks @ Bills (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:     Seahawks

Bears @ Titans (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Bears
Dan’s Pick:     Titans

Lions @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Vikings
Dan’s Pick:     Vikings

Ravens @ Colts (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Ravens
Dan’s Pick:     Ravens

Panthers @ Chiefs (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Panthers

Giants @ Washington (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Giants
Dan’s Pick:     Washington

Texans @ Jaguars (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Texans
Dan’s Pick:     Jaguars

Late Games:

The most interesting game of the late starts for me is the Miami Dolphins fresh off their win against the Rams taking on the Arizona Cardinals. The Dolphins won last week thanks to great defence and special teams so Tua Tagovailoa’s modest NFL debut was not a huge contributing factor. The  Cardinals should prove to be a tougher test and I will be interested to see how Tagovailoa does in his second game and how things shake out for the Cardinals who are ranked two places lower by overall DVOA but are solid in all three phases of the game.

Thoughts on the other games:

  • The Raiders have amassed yet more fines related to Covid-19 protocol failures and have not entirely convinced despite having wins against the Saints, Chiefs, and Browns this season. They might have enough to beat the Chargers, but I am curious if their defensive frailties could get exploited by Chargers’ rookie quarterback sensation Justin Herbert
  • The Cowboys have a new starting quarterback but have problems on both sides of the ball and are unlikely to do much against the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL unless the Steelers have a let-down game after their always tough matchup against the Ravens last week.

Raiders @ Chargers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Raiders
Dan’s Pick:     Raiders

Steelers @ Cowboys (+10.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Steelers
Dan’s Pick:     Steelers

Dolphins @ Cardinals (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:     Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:     Dolphins

Sunday Night Football:

Saints @ Buccaneers (-4.5)

The Sunday night game is the matchup of the week as it sees a divisional matchup between the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 5-2 New Orleans Saints. All the talk coming into the season for the Buccaneers was the signing of Tom Brady, but it is the defence that has truly impressed given it is the best in the league by DVOA and has led the Bucs to the top of the DVOA standings by 9.1%. This defence will taking on a Saints team who are ranked seventh overall by DVOA despite missing their leading receiver Michael Thomas for nearly the who season through one injury or another. There is so much debate surrounding Drew Brees’ arm, but his accuracy in the short to intermediate area of the field is still supreme and Alvin Kamara has been leading the way from the backfield in keeping the Saints offence in the top ten. The Saints might not be as complete a team as we thought coming in to the season, but they are still winning at an impressive rate and I think this rematch has a chance to be more impressive than their season opener. This is not a game to miss.

Gee’s Pick:     Saints
Dan’s Pick:     Saints

Monday Night Football

Patriots @ Jets (+7.5)

The week nine slate of games closes with a bit of a whimper as the New England Patriots take on the New York Jets in a contest that can only muster two wins between both teams. The Jets are having a putrid season, made more difficult by Sam Darnold re-aggravating the AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder so we see a return to the starting line-up for Joe Flacco that is likely to scupper my bold prediction of the Jets’ offence scoring more points than the Cowboy, but doesn’t completely rule it out. The Patriots meanwhile should win this game, but they really need to find something to hang their hat on for the rest of the season. We still don’t know if Cam Newton is hurt or feeling the effects of recovering from Covid-19, but he has not looked good since he returned and the Patriots look as bad as they have done since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000. They should win this game, but the Pats are not as competitive as I was expecting even given their tough circumstances so what interest there is in this game will be how they look against a divisional rival who have simply been woeful this season.

Gee’s Pick:     Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Patriotså

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.å

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Nine

05 Thursday Nov 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

It’s been a weird couple of days, and throw in the first site visit for work in months and my writing time has simply disappeared. The major news appears to still be Covid-19 with the 49ers having to close their facilities and the Packers missing multiple running backs through injury/Covid-19, but tonight’s game is still going ahead. So, as the NFL is waiting for no-one this season I guess I had better get on with Competition Thursday for week nine!

Gee:Week 8:  8 –6Overall:  57 – 63
Dan:Week 8:  7 – 7Overall:  63 – 57

Packers @ 49ers (+2.5)

This is a bit of a cheat line for us, as with the injuries and disruption to the 49ers preparation with their facility closed due to positive Covud tests the consensus line I am seeing is already up to +7 so whilst it’s always possible that the 49ers could spring a surprise, when you add both one of the best tight ends in the game in George Kittle and starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to the already extensive 49ers’ injury list it seems unlikely. I’m a little nervous about the Packers run defence going against a Kyle Shanahan co-ordinated offence but the Packers, whilst having their own injury/Covid-19 cluster at running back, have Aaron Rodgers and only need to win by a field goal to cover this line and I like that option.

Gee’s Pick:     Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Packers

Survivor Competition

Well, Dan changed his plan last week and took the Buccaneers against the Giants and won, whilst I had my third eliminating pick when the Packers had a dud against the Vikings and mainly Dalvin Cook (which in turn makes me marginally more worried about my pick above). This gives Dan a point lead as we go into week nine and Dan has gone for the Packers tonight as he doubles up on tonight’s game. I’m taking a leaf out of his book and I’m going for the Patriots at the Jets, which might be a slightly risky pick but hopefully will pay off in the long run.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 6

Week 9 Selection:

Gee:    Patriots
Dan:    Packers

Bold Prediction of the Week

I once again made two bold predictions this week, which as much anything is because I’m struggling to find them and am never sure that Dan will allow them but for week nine they are:

  1. The New York Giants will beat the Washington Football Team.
  2. The Jets will score more points against the Patriots than the Cowboys will against the Steelers.

If I manage another 50/50 week I will be very happy.

2019 Week Nine Picks

03 Sunday Nov 2019

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, ,

I’m running a little late today so I need to rush through the picks and trivia a bit. Firstly we were asked:

‘Which Dallas quarterback was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2006?’

Now, I think this one is relatively straight forward as I believe it is quarterback turned commentator Troy Aikman.

As for theme, I’m having a thought from something that Dan’s Dad mentioned in his weekly write up that posted on Thursday – so I’m going to go with all time records. I haven’t got time to go through every week’s answers but the Bears have the all time number of wins for a franchise, the Dolphins are the only team to go undefeated and win a Super Bowl, Jim Kelly has the most Super Bowl losses as quarterback and so on…

‘Ah, the first one in a few weeks which I have some degree of comfort in! I believe the QB inducted back then was Troy Aikman. That’s my guess anyway.

And still nothing on the theme!’

Texans @ Jaguars (+2.5)

Our final London game of this season sees the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Houston Texans at Wembley and given the Jags’s experience at playing in London and the Texans coming off a week where they lost JJ Watt I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Washington @ Bills (-9.5)

I don’t like this line as whilst I like the Bills, I don’t trust their offence whilst Washington have managed to cover the last two weeks, but one of them was only thanks to the weather. Still, Washington have some extra rest coming into this game and so I’m nervously going to back Washington to cover the big line.

Gee’s Pick:        Washington
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Bears @ Eagles (-4.5)

What do I do with the Chicago Bears getting these many points against a Philadelphia Eagles team who played better and got the win last week? The answer as they are fairly close by DVOA is grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Eagles

Titans @ Panthers (-3.5)

I was not expecting the Carolina Panthers to give up fifty-one points to the 49ers last week, so they will be looking to get back on track against a Tennessee Titans team who are on their own two game winning streak having switched to starting Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. I can see this being a competitive game but I’m leaning towards the Panthers getting things back on track.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        Panthers

Colts @ Steelers (+1.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have won two games and three out of the last four, but two of the teams they beat don’t have a win yet this season and the Chargers are riven by injury. Meanwhile, despite their franchise quarterback retiring in the off-season the Indianapolis Colts are 5-2 and I’m so impressed with the job Frank Reich and his staff have done that I’m backing them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Vikings @ Chiefs (-2.5)

This is a straightforward pick for me as the consensus seems line for this looks to be Minnesota Vikings (-4) so to get two and half points is a bargain. With the Kansas City Chiefs unlikely to start Patrick Mahomes a couple of weeks after dislocating his knee and having activated Chad Henne I’m going to grab the points for the team who I think is playing much better right now.

Gee’s Pick:        Vikings
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Jets @ Dolphins (+5.5)

Given the disfunction surrounding the New York Jets and how the Miami Dolphins have covered for two weeks in a row with Ryan Fitzpatrick back as the quarterback I’m going to say that the Dolphins lose close or maybe even fall into a win in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Lions @ Raiders (-2.5)

This is a tricky one for me as the Oakland Raiders have been competitive despite being on the road for five weeks even if they did have a bye after their London game, but they welcome a Detroit Lions who have also been competitive and neither team exactly inspires confidence. There’s only 3.9% between them in DVOA and as the better team are getting points I’m going to grab the Lions but I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Buccaneers @ Seahawks (-6.5)

This is an awkward line for me as the Seahawks, famed for their home advantage with the twelves in Seattle have already lost two games at home and only just beat the lowly Bengals. However, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are incredibly inconsistent thanks to Jameis Winston’s propensity to give the ball away. There’s a couple of factors that tell me that this line is to high so I am going to pick the Bucs based on that, but it would not surprise me if the Seahawks make this pick look foolish.

Gee’s Pick:        Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Browns @ Broncos (+2.5)

I so want to say away from this game, that sees the Denver Broncos starting rookie quarterback Brandon Allen go against a dysfunctional Cleveland Browns team who are not handling adversity well. If I had Joe Flacco I might well pick the Broncos but in this one I’m going to hold my nose and pick the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:        Browns
Dan’s Pick:        Browns

Packers @ Chargers (+3.5)

The LA Chargers have no home field advantage at the best of times, but the Green Bay Packers are one of the best travelling fan groups already and are playing so much better that I’m going to back the Packers to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Patriots @ Ravens (+3.5)

This should be one of the most interesting matchups of the week, and the Baltimore Ravens have always given the New England Patriots problems. The Patriots have been covering lines for fun all season and so despite the fact I’m seeing this as a good number for the Ravens, I’m still going to pick the Patriots. I can’t wait to see how Bill Belichick tries to keep Lamar Jackson quiet.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Cowboys @ Giants (+7.5)

When the Dallas Cowboys have won this season they have won big, but they also have a loss against the New York Jets, although that was at the height of their injury problems. The New York Giants got a boost when they put rookie quarterback Daniel Jones into the starting lineup, but that only lasted two games and they have now lost four straight. The Cowboys are coming off their bye week, but the Giants won’t want to be embarrassed in front of the nation on Monday night football. I want nothing to do with this line, but I’m seeing this line as an extra point to the Giants and so I’m reluctantly going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Nine

31 Thursday Oct 2019

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , ,

Dan had an exceptional week eight, pulling himself back level with me, whildy his Dad continues to lurk behind but we are not quite half way through the season yet and there still plenty to play for.

Dan:

Week 8:   12-3

Overall:   65-56

Gee:

Week 8:   9-6

Overall:   65-56

Dan’s Dad:

Week 8:   8-7

Overall:   61-60

49ers @ Cardinals (+9.5)

I am so lost with Thursday night games that I am tying myself in knots. The 49ers are coming off a game that saw them score over fifty points against the Panthers and are taking on a Cardinals who I can’t see winning. The pick the home team unless rule didn’t work, and I have heard people talk about not backing big lines on a Thursday so maybe the Cardinals can cover at home, but once you start second guessing yourself its hard to know what to do. I’m going to put my faith in the unbeaten team wanting to keep their good run going but I do not feel confident about this one.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Week 9 Trivia

‘Well the season rolls on and I now realise that Dan has clearly stolen my lucky pin having recovered from a position even he thought impossible to reach the top (equal top to be honest) but he could hit a wave of sleepless nights so that could soon change.

While only 4 points adrift I know that there is still time, but I have been considering whether I would prefer to lead the trivia league or have a chance of making the playoffs. I know where I stand but I am reminded of the performance 2 years ago in the playoffs by Stefon Diggs. This week he racked up 7 catches and 143 yards to give him a 3 game average which eclipsed that of the Hall of Famer Randy Moss. (452 tards as compared to 446 if you want to know). Franchise records, now there’s a thought.

Anyway in Week 8 we dropped into Cleveland and asked What did Browns coach Paul Brown invent?.

There was some thought put into the answers this week but the key word was ‘invent’ so things such as 40 yard dashes probably, as Dan thought, don’t quite hit the spot. However I like the references to Shoulder Pads and also ‘in helmet communication’ so I’m going to be generous and award 1 point each as what I had in mind was in fact – The Face Mask.

Brown is credited with a number of American football innovations, including the modern face mask, the practice squad and the draw play but ‘invent’ was the key but it leaved them both on 7 points.

Week 9 brings me to Dallas, interestingly 3D can reveal that there are only 3 teams starting with D – so we are now in 3D Territory.

The question is, therefore’ Which Dallas quarterback was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2006?

And you will know the name.

Guess what – the theme,,,,,, not even close. Who knows when one of them get it, maybe by then their team’s fortunes will change. Nah, not going to happen.

Let’s see where they go next!’

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Nine

01 Thursday Nov 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

So having got back from London there’s just time to get tonight’s pick in before I head off to band practice.

Gee: Week 8 8-6 Overall 59-62
Dan: Week 8 7-7 Overall 58-63

Raiders @ 49ers (-2.5)

This is a horrible game to pick given that both teams only have one win and you might usually say that one of them has to get a second tonight but with the number of ties we’ve already had this season that might not be the case. The 49ers have injury excuses as I stated on Wednesday but that doesn’t explain the depth of problems they have had all season. That said the Raiders are now in full tear it down mode with their only win coming against a Browns team so riven by coaching problems that both the head coach and offensive coordinator were fired. Getting back the extra half point from the default minus three I’m going to stick to backing the home team on a Thursday night, but it really is a crap shoot.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

‘This is really difficult because neither team have really been up to much. Gee can’t pick up a point on Thursdays, and I think he’ll go for the 49ers as they’re at home, so I’m going to go with Oakland.’

Week 9 Trivia

‘Here is the Week 8 round up and new question for Week 9 in the Trivia Competition.

In the ‘Picks’ we started on 51 each and we can still throw a towel over all 3 but one of us has retaken the lead by a point.

Also Dan and Gee were tied in the trivia – so what happened there?

I asked Who is the Head Coach with Most Career Wins? With a bonus point available for whoever was closest.

Frankly it was no surprise that both Gee and Dan correctly picked out the great Don Shula, so 1 point each just for that. While I am seriously impressed with Gee’s guess of 320 wins which stacks up well against Shula’s regular season record of 328, it was Dan’s ‘guess’ (he gets no clues nor would he want one) of 350 which does the Quarterback Sneak for the ‘close’ bonus at just 3 away from the regular AND post season combined total of 347.

For the record the stats are: Don Shula: 328 Regular and 19 Post Season wins making 347 in a career running from 1963 to 1995 for the Baltimore Colts and Dolphins

And now to Week 9

Having opened the door recently to College Football this week I’m turning to the Owners. It is a matter of record that 13 have been inducted into the Hall of Fame but WHO was the most recent and WHEN was this? 1 point for each.

Good Luck – its Red Zone time’

Week Nine Picks

05 Sunday Nov 2017

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

This is a strange game for me to pick as the Atlanta Falcons look to be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover, and the Carolina Panthers have been up and down all season. The Falcons offence has not clicked under new coordinator Steve Sarkisian whilst the Panthers have just traded Kelvin Benjamin to a fair amount of consternation from the locker room. Given that I have no confidence in how this game is going to turn out I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bengals @ Jaguars (-4.5)

This game pits a defence that already has two ten sack games against an offensive line that has struggled all season. I have no confidence in the Cincinnati Bengals, but this also seems a lot of points for a team whose offence has not been great going against a pretty decent defence. In the end the Jacksonville Jaguars seem to win big or lose, and I can’t pick the Bengals to win on the road so will back the Jaguars and fervently hope to be wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Broncos @ Eagles (-7.5)

The Denver Broncos have struggled with their offence in recent weeks and are turning to Brock Osweiler to give them a spark. It is a tough ask from the Broncos to win in Philadelphia given how well the Eagles are playing but this line does give me pause. The Eagles have just lost their left tackle Jason Peters for the season and the Broncos defence is still ranked second in the league by DVOA. However, the Broncos are coming off a three game losing streak where the closest game was still ten points, and in the end I can’t quite bring myself to back them. I could regret this.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Ravens @ Titans (-5.5)

This is another game that I don’t know what to do given that the Baltimore Ravens have been up and down all this season and the Tennessee Titans have not exactly inspired confidence. The Titans are coming off a bye and will be hoping the rest will have helped Marcus Mariota get over his hamstring problem fully. However, it still took the Titans overtime to beat the Browns two weeks ago and the Ravens are coming off a big win against the Dolphins on a Thursday night. In the end this is too many points to be giving to a team that may well be better, and are certainly ranked higher by DVOA

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Colts @ Texans (-12.5)

The injury curse struck the Houston Texans again this week as exciting rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in a non-contact practise injury and will miss the rest of the season. The Indianapolis Colts are not a good team, but with the return of Tom Savage to the Texans offence this line is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Rams @ Giants (+3.5)

The New York Giants are coming off a bye, but there is not a lot to hang your hat on this season, whilst the LA Rams are heading up their division and are ranked second overall in DVOA. The Giants have lost all of their home games by more than four points and with the Rams coming off their own bye I don’t feel worried about the Rams giving up points.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Buccaneers @ Saints (-7.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defence is thirtieth by DVOA, which is not encouraging when you are facing Drew Brees and his third ranked offence on the road. The New Orleans Saints started off 0-2, but have won the rest of their games by a minimum of eight points, so whilst this run could end I am not going to pick it.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Cardinals @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers coming off a bye but having lost their starting quarterback. I am not sure if Adrian Peterson can carry an offence without the credible threat of an effective passing game and Drew Stanton doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The 49ers have their own problems, and have stopped keeping games close in the last couple of weeks as they start a rookie quarterback. They will not be looking to start newly acquired Jimmy Garoppolo straight away, but given how closely these two teams are ranked by DVOA, I’m going to grab the points at home for the underdog.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Washington @ Seahawks (-7.5)

I’m still kicking myself for picking Washington last week given how many injuries they have on their offensive line and that the overhaul of the receiver group has really not worked. The number of points worries me a little, but the Seattle Seahawks at home are still a formidable prospect and I just don’t see Kirk Cousins and his offence being able to keep up.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Chiefs @ Cowboys (-0.5)

I am not entirely sure how Ezekiel Elliott keeps finding ways to start games, but once against he has managed to find a way to take the field for the Dallas Cowboys. This game should be fascinating as it feels like the Kansas City Chiefs are slowing down a little from their fast start, with their defence really missing Eric Berry. A defence that ranks thirty-first against the run could really struggle against Ezekiel Elliott, but the Cowboys are only ranked one place better in overall defence and match up against the league’s second ranked offence. In a pick’em game I will back the better team, but not exactly confidently.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Raiders @ Dolphins (+3.5)

The Oakland Raiders got beat badly by the Bills last week and are on the road again as they travel to Miami to face the Dolphins. Setting aside their trade of Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins offence has struggled all season and even if Jay Cutler does start after sitting last week with his broken ribs, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Nor does the fact that they are ranked thirty-first by DVOA and yet the Raiders do not inspire confidence either. The Raiders defence has been poor and the offence does not look like one that should be ranked sixth by DVOA. I feel like this game will be closer than the overall DVOA rankings suggest, and if I’m getting three and a half points at home then I am going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Lions @ Packers (+2.5)

I’m kinda tempted by the home points for the Green Bay Packers as they come off a bye and so have had time to shape the game plan and play book more to their backup quarterback Brett Hundley’s abilities. However, whilst the Detroit Lions have been struggling in recent weeks, their defence ranks much better by DVOA and in Matthew Stafford they have the kind of quarterback who in recent years has inspired confidence. The points do tempt me, but in the end I fancy the Lions to beat their divisional rivals.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Week Nine Picks

06 Sunday Nov 2016

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

I had a slightly better result last week, but I need to have a few more weeks like that to get back to having more games pick right than wrong so on to this week nine’s picks.

Gee:      Week 8   8-5                       Overall   53-67
Dan:      Week 8  4-9                       Overall   49-71

Dallas Cowboys @ Browns (+7.5)

The Cowboys are looking like one of the class teams of the NFC, but they had a big win in overtime against the Eagles and now they are travelling to Cleveland to face a Browns team who were up 20-7 at half time and still found a way to lose. I’m pretty certain the Cowboys will win, but the points give me pause, but although the Browns usually play fairly well before losing, the games they have kept close were against lesser teams and I think they’re going to struggle in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Lions @ Vikings (-6.5)

This is a lot of points for the Vikings to be giving the Lions given that they have lost two straight and just had their offensive coordinator resign, even if amicably. However, they have been on the road for the last two weeks and I have been impressed with the home advantage they have in their new stadium. The problem is that whilst I didn’t think the Lions had the defence to worry the troubled Vikings offensive line, a quick check of the adjusted sack rate on Football Outsiders has them ranked thirteenth, one place behind last week’s Chicago. Ultimately I think the Vikings get things back on track in wins and losses, but I can’t pick them to win by seven. I could regret this…

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-8.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs keep rolling on whilst the Jaguars are mired in mediocrity again. The Chiefs might be down to their backup quarterback, but I see them winning the game, but the nine points required to cover does give me pause. The Jaguars have just fired their offensive coordinator, and you might well expect a bounce back as they rally round the new coordinator, and with the Chiefs having a backup quarterback and injuries at running back it looks like a good spot for the Jaguars. The problem is that I don’t trust them at all whilst I trust Andy Reid and Arrow Head is a difficult place to visit, still I think this is too many points to give away. Eek!

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Jets @ Dolphins (-3.5)

This game pits strength against strength as the Dolphins welcome the Jets to Miami and set their running game against the New York Jets’ running defence, which is one of the few bits of their defence that is definitively working. However, whilst the Jets did get a win last week, it was against the Browns and with the Dolphins coming off two straight wins with Jay Ajayi rushing for two hundred yards in both games as the offensive line coming together a bit, I think the Dolphins will run out winners in this one even if Ajayi is unlikely to run for two hundred yards again.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Eagles @ Giants (-2.5)

The New York Giants seem to be very up and down, at least they are to me and I struggle to get a feel for them each week. However, I was impressed with the Eagles play last week, even if they did ultimately lose against the Cowboys. This may be their second road game in a row and coming after an overtime loss to face a team coming off their bye, but I think the Eagles are a better team, even if the Giants have far better passing options on paper. I could regret this, but I’m going with the road underdog in a bad spot.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Steelers @ Ravens (-0.5)

The indications are that Ben Roethlisberger might play against the Ravens, which makes this a tricky game to call as these divisional games are often close. The Ravens have lost four straight although they are coming off a bye, but so are the Steelers, yet I think they are the better team and if that offence clicks back into place it is terrifying. However, Roethlisberger often doesn’t look great in his first game back from injury. I’m going to back what I think is the better team in this one, but it is another tricky pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Panthers @ Rams (+3.5)

The big question in this game is whether the Panthers we saw las week was a one week blip or if they are back to something more like how they were last season. The complaints from Cam Newton about the calls he’s getting will be music to the ears of an aggressive Rams defence, but they have been struggling to get consistent results and I’m not sure what to expect from them coming off the bye. I can see this one going either way, particularly if Luke Kuechly can’t go having missed practice, so when you’re getting this many points against a team who are only 2-5 this season then you take the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Saints @ 49ers (+3.5)

There is only one unit I truly trust in this game, which is the Saints offence as Drew Brees continues to be great, and so I’m hitching this pick to his arm and hoping Brees won’t let me down.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Colts @ Packers (-6.5)

The Colts are not a good team, whilst I was impressed with the Packers play in a close loss to the Falcons in Atlanta. This week they return to Green Bay and with Aaron Rodgers looking a lot more like himself against the Packers, and a defence that is battling through its problems in the secondary, I think they are coming together nicely. I could see Andrew Luck covering this line at the end, but I think the Packers are too good for the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Titans @ Chargers (-5.5)

The Titans are coming off a big win and a long week after the demolition of the Jaguars on Thursday night of week eight, but they are travelling to San Diego to face a surging Chargers team. I was totally wrong about the impact of Joey Bosa’s holdout, and he really is coming into his own for the Chargers now rather than having the year written off. This line is really awkward as the Titans’ defence is still top ten and facing a Chargers team who look to be without their rookie tight end Hunter Henry who has got off to a great start. I think that the Chargers are the better team but I don’t know if they are going to win by six. I really don’t want to make a pick in this one…

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Broncos @ Raiders (+0.5)

The Raiders are doing well off the back of their stellar offence whilst the defence has really struggled. They have won all five of their road games whilst only managing a solitary win out of their three home games. This week they welcome the Denver Broncos who have the defence to contain Carr and Amari Cooper, and in what is a pick’em game I am going to back the Broncos as they punish me every time I don’t. They also have a better offence than Raiders have defence, but I’m really looking forward to watching this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Bills @ Seahawks (-7.5)

There is talk that LeSean McCoy will be back for this game, but hamstrings are tricky injuries to deal with, and in the meantime the Bills are so desperate for options on offence that they have signed Percy Harvin back from retirement. He is only twenty-eight and they will be hoping that the time off will have helped him heal the nagging injuries that plagued him last season, but it is not an obviously great move. The Seahawks defence has looked as good as ever this season, but their offense has had problems thanks to a shaky offensive line and the resulting injuries to Russell Wilson. I’m putting last week’s loss down to the extra fifteen minutes they played against the Cardinals in week seven, but whilst I expect the Seahawks to with this game, I’m not sure they will win by eight points.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Browns at Bengals, Coaching Tape Madness, and Week 9 Picks

08 Sunday Nov 2015

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I’m attempting a little personal madness this morning as I try to fit three separate things I usually write into one week saving article so here goes.

The Bengals welcomed the Browns to town this Thursday as the battle of Ohio played out in from of a national audience, and it was a dramatic turn around from last year’s game that the Browns won, leaving Andy Dalton with 2.0 passer rating.

On offence the Browns started Johnny Manziel and it feels somewhat strange that he is starting and we’ve had barely a mention of the incident with his girlfriend in their car. We don’t know all the details yet so it is too early to judge, but given that the NFL are investigating what happened, it feels odd for him to be playing in this new world of investigations and Commissioner’s exempt list that we have become so familiar with. On the field he demonstrated both the flaws within the structure of the offence that is the real criticism of his play, and that when plays brake down you get glimpses of the play making ability that tantalise some into thinking that he could make it work. Whilst you wouldn’t say he exactly played badly, the one touchdown drive he had relied heavily on three long plays where he was forced out of the pocket and was able to find a receiver down the field. The problem is that the Bengals adjusted at half time to focus on keeping him in the pocket and the Browns didn’t score another point. The Browns generated a measly two hundred and thirteen yards total offence, unable to run or pass consistently to sustain drives leading to them getting ten less first downs than the Bengals in the game.

Part of the Browns struggle was that despite having two very well known offensive linemen in Alex Mack and Joe Thomas, they really struggled against the Bengals defensive line who were able to get pressure on Manziel consistently even if they only started sacking him in the second half. Watching the line you frequently saw Geno Atkins disrupting plays with penetration and he got himself a sack whilst Carlos Dunlap picked up two. There were also a number of batted passes when Manziel was throwing the ball, as the defence adapted and stiffened to keep the Browns contained all game.

The Bengals offence took advantage of the Browns problems with run defence gaining one hundred and fifty-two yards split between the team leading Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Meanwhile Andy Dalton was quietly efficient in the passing game, throwing for two hundred and thirty-four yards on twenty-one completions from twenty-seven attempts with Tyler Eifert catching all three of his touchdown passes. Eifert has been one of the huge differences to the Bengals this year with the matchup problems he creates and the help he has given in the red zone contributing to this team’s number two ranking on offence by DVOA.

I don’t feel there’s a lot to write about the Browns defence having already mentioned their season long problem with defending the run, but they did manage to get a couple of sacks and actually looked quite good against the pass in this game. However, even when things went well the Browns gave up points in Brown like ways. In the second quarter on the drive where they gave up a touchdown, Randy Starks stuffed Giovani Bernard and immediately gave up a fifteen yard penalty for taunting, and not content with that later on he gave the Bengals a first down and rescued their drive when he was caught offside on a play that should have turned the ball over due to an incompletion.

In the first half I thought my pick for the game might stand a chance with the Browns only four points behind at the end, but the defence adjusted and the Bengals eased themselves out to another win. I’m still waiting for things to go wrong, but obviously I am thrilled with how the season has gone so far. The Browns were shopping players at the end of the trade window, although who would think that they would make the most of any of the draft picks they were looking for. There needs to be a much more stable plan in Cleveland if they hope to ever do something in the AFC North.

Now it is time for me to move into the coaching tape write up, which this week I am combining with my normal weekly column as I am running out of time this week, but also I fell into one of the traps that highlights the joys and the madness of the NFL.

We all enjoy the excitement, admire the skill, and marvel at the physicality of watching football on game day, but there is also a whole other world of things to discover in the coaching tape. The all twenty-two and end zone views allow us to study all the personnel groupings, formations, and schematic battles that occur on every down, showing us why a receiver is wide open, why a player is dancing through the offensive line to make a tackle or sack in the backfield.

The problem for someone like me is that this season I am picking one game to go through, and then I have everything to look at. I am still refining my note taking, but I sat for an hour going through the Colts at Panthers from week eight and didn’t even make it out of the first quarter!

What I did see was that the Panthers defence is really good, and if you look at the end zone view you can really see why Luke Kuechly is such a special linebacker. Not only is he active before the snap, but he diagnoses the play so quickly and can knife forward to stuff the run at the line of scrimmage or drop seamlessly into coverage. It was also interesting to look at the Panthers offence and see just how they are maximising their output from Cam Newton, who is playing better this season but still overthrows receivers regularly in the passing game and can lack touch. However, he is a unique weapon in the running game as you simply do not see a quarterback regularly run head down like a running back into the opposing defence. It would terrify me if I was a Panthers fan as he takes so many hits, but he also pops up into the kind of face to face confrontation with the tackling defender in a way reminiscent of a running back, which is a lot of fun.

I didn’t see that many snaps by the Colts offence due to the flow of the quarter, but it is strange to see the media narrative surrounding Andrew Luck’s season, where he has gone from the next generational league saving quarterback in the preseason to a failing quarterback. There are worrying trends this season, he’s always thrown interceptions, but they are getting worse this season, and I got to see that in the one quarter of football in this game that I did see. On third down Charles Tillman playing right corner dropped into an under zone and Luck clearly did not account for him when he threw to TY Hilton running a route behind the corner, and so Tillman was able to intercept the ball before Hilton had a chance to make the catch. The problem is not so much the receivers, but the offensive line they have put in front of Luck and the twenty-fifth by DVOA rush offence they have given him this season. A young quarterback is always helped by a rushing game, and there has been a long string of quarterbacks who have been knocked out of the league by playing behind lines that could not protect them. The Colts fired their offensive coordinator and promoted Rob Chudzinski in a weirdly timed move given they have a short week before facing the leagues best defence and then go into a bye.

If you  read anything about NFL coaching, then you will likely hear about the hours they put into looking at tape and coming up with plans, and as an amateur with an interest it easy to how. When you start looking at the personnel on the field, how they are lined up on both sides of the ball, what the offence is running, what coverages are the defence playing, how well each player executed, down and distance, what reads a player had to make… the list really could be if not endless, extremely long. At least if you are a position coach then your area of focus is defines, and I think this is how I am going to try to reduce the task for me as I simply can’t spend hours and hours looking at one game no matter how much I want to. However, I can see how coaches do it, and why there’s always something else to see, because it is endlessly fascinating. Whether it’s watching route combinations to see how they get a player open, how a defence has balanced getting pressure against covering the five possible receivers of the offence, or the simple joy of watching a pass rusher setup an offensive linemen with a series of outside speed moves before bull rushing up the inside to get a sack, there is always a new nuance to learn or play to admire. There are so many coaching hours put into what we see each week, and the margins are so fine that very capable people can look foolish when they have probably been stressing all week a particular point that a player simply didn’t execute on Sunday. That is one of the strengths of the Patriots, they are so well coached that they appear ready each and every week despite the fact that they play such radically different game plans depending on the opponent.

I could continue to wax lyrical, but I would rather say that if you have NFL Game Pass, do yourself a favour and take a look at some coaching tape. It’s okay to be lost, but stick with it and I think you will start finding new things to admire and be fascinated by.

Now I finally move into the picks for this week, where Dan has already picked up a game on me this week so let’s see if I can get it back:

Dolphins @ Bills (-2.5)

I’m not convinced by either side who were both meant to be competing for the AFC East title this season, but things look at lot more familiar with the Patriots running away with the division. The Dolphins lost a huge part of their defence in Cameron Wake, and whilst I don’t expect a repeat of he beating they took last time they played, the Bills are getting some players back and have to get something going soon if they want to save their season

Gee’s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Packers @ Panthers (+2.5)

I think this is game of the week and it is being show for free on Freeview in the UK this weekend. I’m not sure why the Packers have got a five and half point swing given that they are on the road and the Panthers have playing very well this season. I think this is going to be a close game and if I am getting points as an unbeaten home team then I’ll take them, even if the Panthers do have to lose at some point

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Packers

Titans @ Saints (-7.5)

The Titans have fired their coach, and visit a Saints team who have definitely got their offence working better although the Giants’s defence was as poor as the Saints’ in last week’s highly entertaining game. I don’t see the Titans winning, and whilst the Saints may struggle to get this far ahead with their defence, it’s not going to stop me picking them.

Gee’s Pick:    Saints
Dan’s Pick:    Saints

Raiders @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Raiders are for real this season, beating a Jets team that may not have looked like themselves, but the Raiders have a winning record and hope for the first time in years. This week they face a different kind of team in the Steelers who are coming off a tough loss to the Bengals where they also lost Le’Veon Bell for the season. The Steelers have hung tough all year with a defence that has kept them in games whilst their potentially explosive offence has rotated injuries. I can see the Steelers winning it, but given all that’s going on I’m not sure why they are giving up more points this week against Raiders, even if the Raiders do have to come across from the west coast.

Gee’s Pick:    Raiders
Dan’s Pick:    Raiders

Rams @ Vikings (-2.5)

This looks to be another good game, but it might be one too many for a Vikings team who have quietly done well, but may well struggle against this Rams defence, whilst rookie Todd Gurley is rapidly looking like one of the best running backs in the league.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    Rams

Washington @ Patriots (-13.5)

Things have faded in Washington whilst the Patriots go from strength to strength and whilst the points give me pause, not for long enough to go against the Patriots at home.

Gee’s Pick:    Patriots
Dan’s Pick:    Patriots

Jaguars @ Jets (-6.5)

The Jets quarterback situation alone is enough for me to think that this game will be closer than this line suggests, and whilst I have a history of getting Jaguar picks wrong, they are coming off a win in London where they finally had to put together a late drive to win and did. I could regret this, but I’m jumping back on the Jaguars bandwagon for another week.

Gee’s Pick:    Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Falcons @ 49ers (+6.5)

The Falcons have flaws, and I might be worried about this line if it was not for the fact that the 49ers are starting Blaine Gabbert at quarterback this week. Watch me be wrong spectacularly later today, but I can’t pick it.

Gee’s Pick:    Falcons
Dan’s Pick:    Falcons

Giants @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

The Giants have activated Jason Pierre-Paul, and whilst I have no idea if this will impact their pass rush or not, I have more faith in their offence than the Buccaneers defence. I just don’t trust the Buccaneers even if they did beat the Falcons last week.

Gee’s Pick:    Giants
Dan’s Pick:    Giants

Broncos @ Colts (+3.5)

The Colts new offensive coordinator has his toughest test in his first week, and whilst the points do give me a little pause given that the Colts are at home, they are not a good team and I think the Broncos remain unbeaten for another week behind their amazing defence. It will be interesting to see if their offensive performance against the Packers was an anomaly or a sign of things coming together after their bye week.

Gee’s Pick:    Broncos
Dan’s Pick:    Broncos

Eagles @ Cowboys (+2.5)

The Cowboys have not won a game since losing Tony Romo, and the Eagles defence is what they have been leaning on this year. You can never be certain about anything with the Eagles this year, but I think they will win this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Eagles
Dan’s Pick:    Eagles

Bears @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers’ injury problems continue as they lost Keenan Allen for the year to a lacerated kidney, which is an injury that makes you shudder just to write it. The Chargers defence is a mess, whilst Rivers has to play at a high level to keep his team close in losses, and they have had no home field advantage. I think the Bears will keep this one close as they have at least become solid in John Fox’s first year even if this hasn’t turned into wins.

Gee’s Pick:    Bears
Dan’s Pick:    Bears

Thursday Night Guesses

05 Thursday Nov 2015

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

It’s been a bad week for writing so I’m just popping up our picks for tonight’s game and will try to catch up over the weekend. It’s a toughie because of the spread, Dan and I have been texting back and forth between us, and he is keeping faith with the Bengals. I think the Browns will be desperate to do something on the national stage, and the points worry me, so whilst I think the Bengals will win, I think the Browns may well cover. This is one of those occasions where I will be happy to be wrong, unless the Bengals lose…

Browns @ Bengals (-10.5)

Dan’s Pick:       Bengals
Gee’s Pick:       Browns

NFL Week 9 Picks

30 Thursday Oct 2014

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

If week eight taught us anything, it is that trying to predict NFL results is a mug’s game. I fell another game behind Dan last week, and this week’s lines look horrible. There seem to be three kinds of losses that I have each week: there’s the out by half a point to a point that I can live with, the surprise result that no one saw coming, and the frustrating second guess or I should have seen that coming. See if you can see which teams handed me what kind of loss last week.

Last week by this point of the intro I had picked three games, I don’t have any picked right now…

Gee:      Week 8   7-8                       Overall   59-62
Dan:      Week 8   8-7                       Overall   63-58

Saints @ Panthers (+2.5)

Sometimes when you are wrong, it’s good to be very wrong as it forces you to readjust. It appears that I was very wrong on the Saints last week, but I’m still undecided about them. They had taken care of the Bucs in Week Six, had a bye and got healthier, then only narrowly lost to the Lions. The problem is that they were leading the Lions game up until there was 01:54 left in the fourth quarter, when the Lions scored the last of their fourteen unanswered points to win the game. They had no such problems against the Packers, hanging with them in the first half and pulling away in the third quarter. The offence looked better with Drew Brees playing more like how we would expect, the rookie receiver Brandin Cooks picking up nearly one hundred yards, and Jimmy Graham beginning to look more like himself as he comes back from a shoulder problem. Meanwhile, the defence did enough, although Aaron Rodgers appeared limited by his hamstring problem and you can’t blame him for the way Eddie Lacy’s missed catch popped up for an interception. This team is also one that does not travel well so I don’t know what to make of them this week.

The Panthers lost an ugly game against the Seahawks. Cam Newton managed to throw an interception and lose a fumble, whilst trying to make something happen. The defence managed to look pretty good against a Seahawks unit that is top ten and leads the league in rush offence by DVOA. I have been confused by the Panthers all season, they have been up and down and I have struggled to make sense of who they are as a team. It was reasonable to expect a step back given their salary cap woes and the players they lost, but this means that I really don’t know what to expect of them in any given week. They don’t seem to be able to put together good performances on both sides of the ball at the same time. I really thought they were there for the taking against the Bengals.

I’m worried about the points given that the Saints don’t travel well, and I’m not convinced by either team, but I’m leaning towards the Saints as I feel like I have a better idea of who they can be if thing start to come together. This is a real shot in the dark, but here goes.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Jaguars @ Bengals (-11.5)

The Bengals did enough to get their proper name back last week, although I think they were a little lucky to get the win given that I don’t think there was enough of push by Steve Smith to warrant his touchdown being called back. It will be interesting to see the offence once AJ Green gets back as Mohamed Sanu had another great game and the pair of them could really open the offence out again. The pass defence is very solid, although the rush defence is currently last in the league by DVOA. Still, I feel pretty confident coming into this week against the Jaguars at home. I’m just not sure I’m that confident.

Having got their first win in week seven, the Jaguars came back down with a bump against the Dolphins. Unfortunately Blake Bortles not only threw another interception, but one that was returned eighty-one yards for a touchdown. This team continues to hang in there as their defence is doing okay, but they just don’t have enough talent to do more than compete. That said, I don’t see this game being a blow out as I don’t think the Bengals are healthy enough so I’m worriedly backing the Jaguars to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Buccaneers @ Browns (-6.5)

The Buccaneers are not good, and with the fire sale before the trade deadline the new management are trying to say it’s the previous regime’s players. Either way, I don’t see them doing well in Cleveland. The problem is that the Browns are struggling as well, the loss of Alex Mack really seems to have upset the line (which should not be surprising, I’ve seen myself what damage losing your starting centre can do to a team), so whilst I think they will win, the line makes me nervy. In the end though, the Bucs are ranked dead last in overall DVOA, and by a fair margin, whilst the Browns are solidly mid-table so whilst it’s another anxious pick, I’m going for the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Cardinals @ Cowboys (-4.5)

I don’t think it’s time to panic yet, but back injuries make me nervous and we don’t know what is going to happen with Tony Romo yet. More surprising to me is that the given the injury situation with Romo, and that they lost to Washington last week, I can’t see why they are giving so many points to the Cardinals. It is pretty amazing that DeMarco Murray has already run for over one thousand yard, and now has eight straight one hundred yard games to start the season. However, the o-line that has been talked about by some as the best in the league this season, couldn’t protect the quarterback last week against Washington, yet this week go against one of the most blitz heavy defences in the league. It could a very tough time for whoever starts at quarterback this week.

Bruce Arians and his staff are doing a great job this season. Having lost so many of the starters from last year’s stellar defence, you would be forgiven for thinking that the Cardinals might struggle, but somehow they are still top ten. They are getting by on offence, although I thought that the observation about their likely unsustainable good play on third down in Aaron Schatz’s Football Outsiders DVOA column was interesting. Still, whilst they may regress at some point, they have enough play makers and seem to be playing well home and away. This is one of the few games that I’m beginning to feel comfortable with this week, which means you should all back the Cowboys to bounce back, but I’m sticking with the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Jets @ Chiefs (-9.5)

Oh dear Geno. A stat line of two completions in eight attempts for five yards and three interceptions is something the like of which we will not see for quite some time. I wrote that I thought this would be a close game, but I underestimated the Bills’ defence, and for the first time I feel like the Jets really let the game get away from them. Sadly, I really don’t see that Michael Vick will be the solution as the new starter given that Geno Smith was pulled in the first quarter, giving Vick plenty of time to secure the starter role through good play. I don’t think an interception and three fumbles, which luckily only once was recovered by the Bills, was really enough to win him the job.

This week the Jets travel to the Chiefs and I think it could be a long day. The Chiefs are a very well coached side, that often win the line of scrimmage battle on both sides of the ball and have playmakers on offense. They took care of business against the Rams last week, and have another bad team this week and whilst the points are high, I think the Chiefs will win big for a second week in a row.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Chargers @ Dolphins (-1.5)

This should be a cracking game. The Dolphins did a solid job against the Jaguars last week, with their defence continuing to play well, and the offence looking like it is making progress. The Chargers are probably gasping for the bye to try and get healthy, but they didn’t disgrace themselves in the loss to the Broncos, and what are the chances that they would win two years in a row in Mile High stadium? I think the Chargers will do well with the extra rest, even having to travel across the country. This is a risky pick as I have no doubt that Dan will be picking the Dolphins, but I think they’ll come a cropper in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Washington @ Vikings (-1.5)

This is a meeting of two 3-5 teams who both found ways to win last week. The Vikings required an overtime Anthony Barr fumble return for a touchdown to beat the Buccaneers, whilst Washington managed to kick a field goal in overtime to win. This is the battle of last year’s Bengals’ coordinators, and whilst I think that Mike Zimmer is the better coach, I don’t know that he has the players right now. I’m more impressed with Washington beating the Cowboys and I’m getting points so I’m backing Washington for a second week in a row, but I would run a lot of miles before I put any money on this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Eagles @ Texans (+2.5)

The Texans came through for me last week, but I’m not sure they have what it takes to win or cover in this game. The defence did well and Arian Foster has rushed for one hundred yards in six of the team’s seven games, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is still a worry and I don’t think that they will have enough in this game.

I don’t think that I overestimated the Eagles but underestimated the Cardinals. There are still questions about what is going on with the offence and LeSean McCoy, but the defence is top ten by DVOA and I have a feeling that they will get back on track this week. I don’t think they were as good as their winning start to the season led some people to think (myself included), but I think they are a better team than the Texans, and whilst I might have picked too many away teams last week, I don’t appear to have learnt my lesson.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Rams @ 49ers (-9.5)

The 49ers were on a bye last week, which they probably really needed given their injuries, but couldn’t have been much fun with the big loss to the Broncos in week seven hanging over them. I think that they have enough to win this game, but they are not the team from last year and this number worries me.

Having got the great win against the Seahawks in week seven, the Rams just got battered away to the Chiefs last week. Poor Austin Davis took seven sacks, and could only muster one touchdown and an interception in the 7-34 loss. They also look to have lost left tackle Jake Long for the season to an ACL tear, with receiver Brian Quick possibly following Long to IR with a shoulder problem, as well as listing right guard Rodger Saffold and centre Scott Wells as questionable with them also having left the game on Sunday.

I know I said the number worries me, but I think the 49ers will be raring to go this weekend, and are catching the Rams at a difficult point in an already horrible season.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Broncos @ Patriots (+3.5)

It’s time for another Brady Manning Bowl, and we should enjoy it whilst we still have them, because there can’t be many of these left.

The Patriots did a real number on the Bears last week, and I’m cross with myself for picking against them. I could write an essay about the way that Patriots attack the centre of the field when Gronkowski is healthy, and how this worked perfectly in attacking the Bears defence, but my focus is actually on Brady as something occurred to me this week. I stand by what I wrote about the ball not coming out like it did, and I did see him miss some throws in that Jets game, but we’ve been watching Peyton Manning throw wobbly passes for two seasons now and he has been incredibly effective. I should have know better than to forget the brains and the will of a Tom Brady, he is past his prime, but still is an incredibly effective quarterback and it looks like the offence is coming together now. He looks to finally have got another receiver in Brandon LaFell and they scored a lot of points last week.

That said, the Broncos right now look like the best team in the league. Their offence is still the best in the league by DVOA, but their defence is improved from last season and is currently ranked second in the league. I should be worried about taking another road favourite, but as good as the Patriots are, I think the Broncos will win this one. I’m really torn on this number, logic dictates that I should take the points and the Patriots at home, but I’m an idiot and if I am going to catch Dan then I need to take the occasional risk.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Raiders @ Seahawks (-14.5)

One team is 0-7 and the other is the reigning Super Bowl Champions and so you might think this is a reasonably large line to get action on both sides, but I’m not so sure.

As defending champions the Seahawks could well be dealing with Pat Riley’s disease of more, but they are certainly having a difficult season. The defence is not playing as well as last year, the offence is not quite firing, they’ve just traded Percy Harvin, there are rumours of discord in the locker room, and they are coming off an unconvincing win. They only scored thirteen points against the Panthers and even Russell Wilson had a drop in play last week, and otherwise he has been excellent this season.

The Raiders are not a good team, but in the majority of their games they are hanging tough. Their rookie quarterback Derek Carr threw for over three hundred yards and a touchdown without an interception, which offers some hope for the future. I don’t see them winning this game, especially in Seattle, but I think that they could keep it within fifteen points. I could be wrong, and the Seahawks could get themselves back on track this week, but I wouldn’t bet on it being by fifteen points or more.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Ravens @ Steelers (-0.5)

This will be a fascinating game for those of us invested in the AFC North, but possibly not a great spectacle. Although the Ravens lost to the Bengals last week, with a different penalty call they could very easily have won, and they still look like a good team. They are now the only team ranked in the top ten in all three phases of the game by DVOA, and I continue to feel confident about them.

The problem is that I do not know what to make of the up and down Steelers. Playing in their eye catching bumble bee throw back jerseys, they put fifty-one points on a Colts defence that had shut out the Bengals the week before. It is probably worth remembering that if a team’s offence is not scoring points, but has solid line play, good receivers including on of the best in the league, and a very good looking running back, then maybe they are due some points. That said, the Colts still managed to put up thirty-four points against a defence that is really not what you would expect from a Steelers team.

I do think that the Ravens are a level above the Steelers, but divisional games can be tricky so I expect a closer game than earlier in the season, but the same end result.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Colts @ Giants (+3.5)

The Colts had been playing so well that maybe they were due a bad game, but the defence that has looked so good recently, were bad against the Steelers as detailed above. However, even under these circumstances Andrew Luck was good enough to keep them hanging around. I am not going to over react to the last game, but the Colts defence plummeted down the rankings by DVOA and it will be interesting to see how that side of the ball goes over the next few weeks.

The Giants are coming off a bye week that followed two difficult losses. There’s no shame in losing to the Eagles and Cowboys this season, but the loss to the Eagles was pretty awful and the Cowboys beat them fairly easily as well. They are pretty much mid table in all three phases of the game by DVOA and I don’t think they have enough to win this game. I seem to be picking a lot of road favourites again, and I am a little bit torn on this one, but in the end I’m sticking with my instincts.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts