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Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

This is a strange game for me to pick as the Atlanta Falcons look to be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover, and the Carolina Panthers have been up and down all season. The Falcons offence has not clicked under new coordinator Steve Sarkisian whilst the Panthers have just traded Kelvin Benjamin to a fair amount of consternation from the locker room. Given that I have no confidence in how this game is going to turn out I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bengals @ Jaguars (-4.5)

This game pits a defence that already has two ten sack games against an offensive line that has struggled all season. I have no confidence in the Cincinnati Bengals, but this also seems a lot of points for a team whose offence has not been great going against a pretty decent defence. In the end the Jacksonville Jaguars seem to win big or lose, and I can’t pick the Bengals to win on the road so will back the Jaguars and fervently hope to be wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Broncos @ Eagles (-7.5)

The Denver Broncos have struggled with their offence in recent weeks and are turning to Brock Osweiler to give them a spark. It is a tough ask from the Broncos to win in Philadelphia given how well the Eagles are playing but this line does give me pause. The Eagles have just lost their left tackle Jason Peters for the season and the Broncos defence is still ranked second in the league by DVOA. However, the Broncos are coming off a three game losing streak where the closest game was still ten points, and in the end I can’t quite bring myself to back them. I could regret this.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Ravens @ Titans (-5.5)

This is another game that I don’t know what to do given that the Baltimore Ravens have been up and down all this season and the Tennessee Titans have not exactly inspired confidence. The Titans are coming off a bye and will be hoping the rest will have helped Marcus Mariota get over his hamstring problem fully. However, it still took the Titans overtime to beat the Browns two weeks ago and the Ravens are coming off a big win against the Dolphins on a Thursday night. In the end this is too many points to be giving to a team that may well be better, and are certainly ranked higher by DVOA

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Colts @ Texans (-12.5)

The injury curse struck the Houston Texans again this week as exciting rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in a non-contact practise injury and will miss the rest of the season. The Indianapolis Colts are not a good team, but with the return of Tom Savage to the Texans offence this line is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Rams @ Giants (+3.5)

The New York Giants are coming off a bye, but there is not a lot to hang your hat on this season, whilst the LA Rams are heading up their division and are ranked second overall in DVOA. The Giants have lost all of their home games by more than four points and with the Rams coming off their own bye I don’t feel worried about the Rams giving up points.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Buccaneers @ Saints (-7.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defence is thirtieth by DVOA, which is not encouraging when you are facing Drew Brees and his third ranked offence on the road. The New Orleans Saints started off 0-2, but have won the rest of their games by a minimum of eight points, so whilst this run could end I am not going to pick it.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Cardinals @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers coming off a bye but having lost their starting quarterback. I am not sure if Adrian Peterson can carry an offence without the credible threat of an effective passing game and Drew Stanton doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The 49ers have their own problems, and have stopped keeping games close in the last couple of weeks as they start a rookie quarterback. They will not be looking to start newly acquired Jimmy Garoppolo straight away, but given how closely these two teams are ranked by DVOA, I’m going to grab the points at home for the underdog.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Washington @ Seahawks (-7.5)

I’m still kicking myself for picking Washington last week given how many injuries they have on their offensive line and that the overhaul of the receiver group has really not worked. The number of points worries me a little, but the Seattle Seahawks at home are still a formidable prospect and I just don’t see Kirk Cousins and his offence being able to keep up.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Chiefs @ Cowboys (-0.5)

I am not entirely sure how Ezekiel Elliott keeps finding ways to start games, but once against he has managed to find a way to take the field for the Dallas Cowboys. This game should be fascinating as it feels like the Kansas City Chiefs are slowing down a little from their fast start, with their defence really missing Eric Berry. A defence that ranks thirty-first against the run could really struggle against Ezekiel Elliott, but the Cowboys are only ranked one place better in overall defence and match up against the league’s second ranked offence. In a pick’em game I will back the better team, but not exactly confidently.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Raiders @ Dolphins (+3.5)

The Oakland Raiders got beat badly by the Bills last week and are on the road again as they travel to Miami to face the Dolphins. Setting aside their trade of Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins offence has struggled all season and even if Jay Cutler does start after sitting last week with his broken ribs, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Nor does the fact that they are ranked thirty-first by DVOA and yet the Raiders do not inspire confidence either. The Raiders defence has been poor and the offence does not look like one that should be ranked sixth by DVOA. I feel like this game will be closer than the overall DVOA rankings suggest, and if I’m getting three and a half points at home then I am going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Lions @ Packers (+2.5)

I’m kinda tempted by the home points for the Green Bay Packers as they come off a bye and so have had time to shape the game plan and play book more to their backup quarterback Brett Hundley’s abilities. However, whilst the Detroit Lions have been struggling in recent weeks, their defence ranks much better by DVOA and in Matthew Stafford they have the kind of quarterback who in recent years has inspired confidence. The points do tempt me, but in the end I fancy the Lions to beat their divisional rivals.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

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