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The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

The Wrong Football

Monthly Archives: November 2019

Competition Thursday: Thanksgiving 2019

28 Thursday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Competition Thursday, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Thanksgiving Football

So Dan’s Dad extended his lead at the top of the picks competition last week as we edge closer to a second consecutive season  win for him unless Dan or I get on a hot-streak.

I would just like to say that I am thankful for all the help and engagement of both 3D and Dan over the years as well as to any of you for reading this, whether you are a long time reader or only recently discovered our little corner of NFL fandom. Anyway, on to the picks as there are games a coming.

Dan’s Dad: Week 12:   8-6 Overall:   97-79
Dan: Week 12:   5-9 Overall:   94-82
Gee: Week 12:   7-7 Overall:   90-86

Bears @ Lions (+2.5)

The 5-6 Chicago Bears have won two out of their last four games but Mitch Trubisky has been wildly inconsistent and frequently plain bad in his third year and so I’m really not sure how the Bears will fare in this trip to play in the Detroit Super Bowl, the Lions’ annual Thanksgiving game. The Lions have the excuse of their franchise quarterback being out with fractures in his back, but they have been underwhelming for much of the season even before having to start Jeff Driskell and now it seems they are down to their third string quarterback as Driskell has surfaced on the injury report with a hamstring injury. I don’t’ exactly feel great about it, but that’s enough for me to reluctantly to give the edge to a team that actually ranks worse by DVOA. Yeah, avoid picking this game if you don’t have to.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:     Bears

Bills @ Cowboys (-6.5)

There is a big difference between these two teams in terms of DVOA, but the Bills have won two more games and whilst their offence is not setting the world alight, their defence is top ten by DVOA and they have clear found a knack for winning. I’m not sure they will definitely win this game, but I feel like this line is too high, partially because of how popular the Cowboys are and so I’m going to take the Bills to keep this game within a touchdown. It is hard to have too much faith in the Cowboys given their up and down season and I don’t trust their coaching staff, but I am looking forward to seeing the Bills and how they fare on the big stage.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Saints @ Falcons (+6.5)

Will the real Falcons please stand up? There was a mini recovery after the bye week for the Atlanta Falcons but that didn’t last into last week’s loss against the Buccaneers. However, the New Orleans Saints will be very motivated to get revenge after their surprise loss to the Falcons in week ten. This line make me nervous as I like the Saints to win as they are a much better team and will definitely be motivate, but divisional games are funny and I’m sure the Falcons are going to put forward their best effort. However, having just lost to the Bucs by thirteen points I can’t quite bring myself to back the Falcons in this one and I just hope I don’t’ regret that.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Week 9 Trivia

‘Well, the only thing that I needed in Week 12 with The Vikings on a bye, was to see the Packers come a cropper against the 49ers and as an early Christmas present it happened leaving The Vikes and the Cheeseheads tied on 8 a piece making for a very interesting final 5 weeks in the regular season and with them facing of in Minneapolis in Wk 16 divisional honours may revolve about that game..

I got to thinking though about what drives fans to pick a particular team. In the US a local preference will dictate many choices, it could be the colours or, radical I know, you may just like the style of play. But with the growth of the game in the UK I wondered if it may be the result of where people have holidayed. That may explain the Miami factor but looking at the crowds at the International series I think all 32 franchises, and more, are represented so I’m at a loss as to why backwater towns get a following.

I do remember visiting Chicago with Dan 11 years ago and took in a high scoring game at Soldier Field. The stadium and the experience generally was amazing but after the game we retreated to a sports bar in our hotel near Grant Park. Remember that only a quarter of Americans possess a passport those we met in that bar were amazed that two Brits were taking on an NFL road trip. I don’t think they realised how big the game was getting over here, let alone that it would be knocking on the door of its own franchise inside 10 – 15 years. Therein lies another question, If (when) there was a UK franchise would all the brits forsake their current teams in favour of the new kid on the block. Somehow I think not.

In trivia for week 12 I asked………   

In the 1996 season, quarterback Brett Favre set an NFC record when he threw 39 touchdown passes in regular season play. Who was the previous record holder?

There are a number of great names it could have been and Dan Marino would have been as good as any, but remember I am a devious so and so and the answer was Brett Favre the previous year and such was his strength in a very competitive position.

So sadly no points this week leaving us on Gee 11 v Dan 14.

Right this week we roll into Houston and the problem is this:

In 2002 The Texans became only the 2nd expansion team to win its inaugural game. Against whom?

The only clue I will give is to do with matching time zones but I know that wont help them at all

See you next time.’

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Thanksgiving Prep

27 Wednesday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry, Devlin Hodges, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jason Garrett, Jerry Jones, Joe Mixon, Marlon Mack, Mason Rudolph, Mike Tomlin, New York Jets, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ross Tucker, Ryan Finley, Ryan Tannehill, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans, Ty Hilton, Tyler Boyd, Will Fuller

With the three Thanksgiving games coming up tomorrow there is a feast of prime-time football for everyone to enjoy so let’s take a look at the run up to week thirteen as we near the final quarter of the season.

What I Saw

On Thursday night we saw a close divisional game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans where the Texans were able to eek out a win. This was not a spectacular game but a tough tense one where the Texans were able to bounce back from their heavy defeat against the Ravens the week before by stepping up their defensive performance and making enough plays on offence with receivers Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins working well as a tandem. The Texans do look a different team when they have both of these receivers fit, but the Colts were as competitive as they have been all season, getting more out of their offence than I feared because of their injuries, but in the end a couple of drops by TY Hilton cost them the game. This was Hilton’s first game back after several weeks out with a calf injury, but he wasn’t using that as an excuse and the backups to Marlon Mack (out with a broken hand) ran the ball well enough but the Colts fell short in the end. Still, the Colts are not out of the race for the AFC South but with the Titans catching them up with another win this week the race for this division could get very interesting. I’m not sold on the Texans being the ultimate winners even if they have a game lead for now.

On Sunday the Cincinnati Bengals welcomed their local rivals, and even led the game for a while but in the end fell to the all too familiar loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a close 10-16 game. The Steelers didn’t look that great doing it as whilst their defence played well, holding the Bengals offence to multiple three and out drives as Ryan Finley never looked comfortable, it took a change in quarterback to spark enough offence for the Steelers to win but more about that in a moment. For the Bengals, Tyler Boyd made some great catches and Joe Mixon showed flashes in the run game but they couldn’t move the ball consistently. The Bengals defence has looked stouter over the last couple of weeks but that doesn’t really matter if you regularly can’t even get to twenty points and the Bengals have barely managed that this season. The desperation for a win is clearly growing as the Bengals are going back to Andy Dalton this week, and with a game against the Dolphins, two against the Browns, and the Jets visiting this weekend they will be hoping to break their duck somewhere. As for the Steelers, they are comfortable in this kind of defensive game as they are not prone to the long touchdown concession the Bengals are, and when Mason Rudolph was struggling Mike Tomlin made the switch to Devlin Hodges in game who promptly threw for the seventy-nine yard touchdown play that did enough for the Steelers to maintain a push for a wildcard spot. They probably need to win three or four games and have results go their way to be in with a shot but they are at least still alive in the chase.

I was planning to watch the Patriots take on the Cowboys, but given the weather in New England I made the switch to watch the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to face the Tennessee Titan’s and it was a curious watch. It was nip and tuck until the third quarter with both teams moving the ball but struggling to maintain drives yet the four point deficit at half time was the closest the Jaguars would get after the Titans opening touchdown. A twenty-eight-point explosion in the third quarter sealed the game for the Titans with Derrick Henry breaking out for the type of monster game that he has proved multiple times he is capable of but we don’t always see. Henry finished the game with one hundred and fifty nine yards, with a seventy-four yard long touchdown run very much being the highlight. The Titans have now won four of their last five games since switching to Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback and you begin to wonder where they might be if they had made the switch earlier. It is strange to think that the Jaguars were in the AFC championship game two seasons ago and have a Super Bowl winning quarterback but don’t look great, and you begin to wonder what changes await in the off-season for a coaching staff and front-office who have never been able to repeat their first year of success.

The final game I watched this was the incredible looking matchup of the Green Bay Packers visiting the San Francisco 49ers that turned into a romp for the 49ers. I was worried about the extra half point in the picks competition because of how good Aaron Rodgers is, which turns out to have been no problem at all for the 49ers. Their defence smothered the Packers, holding them to under two hundred yards total offence and Rodgers could only throw for one hundred and eighteen yards. He didn’t throw any interceptions, but fumbled the ball away whilst being sacked and couldn’t get comfortable all game. The 49ers defence limited Rodgers ability to bide time in the pocket, which so few teams have managed to do but this enabled then to get five sacks and numerous hits whilst Fred Warner racked up eleven solo tackles at the heart of the defence. I don’t think the Packers are suddenly a bad team, but there appears to be a gap between the 49ers and the rest of the top teams in the NFC that does still include the Packers. What this game did do was increase my respect yet again for the 49ers defence, who are still second in the league by DVOA to the Patriots’ defence but whilst there is 6.6% between the 49ers and Patriots, there is 14.9% back to the third place Steelers. I knew the 49ers were playing well on this side of the ball, but seeing them play together is really impressive and I can’t wait to see them go against the Ravens next week.

What I Heard

The headlines from the weekend focussed a lot on the fall out of the ugly game between the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys, where the weather hampered both teams but the Patriots adapted whilst the Cowboys did not and with Jerry Jones criticising Jason Garrett the speculation about his job security has started up again. There are plenty of valid criticisms of both Garrett’s game management and his game planning but after a number of years without change, the talent of the current Cowboy’s roster seems to giving a Jones a different impression of the job Garrett is doing. Everything with he Cowboys get over-covered, and this is hardly the first time that rumours have started but it is beginning to look like a change is finally coming for one of the longest tenured head coaches in the league.

The other thing that leaps to mind was Ross Tucker commenting on how quietly the Buffalo Bills have gone 8-3 this season. That said they do get a chance this Thanksgiving Thursday to put on a good showing for the nation as they take on the Dallas Cowboys and I’m definitely looking forward to the chance to watch them again.

What I Think

This week felt like an odd one, there were one or two results that I just didn’t see coming, several blow outs, a couple of weather affected games, but not a lot of games grabbed the attention with how one sided the match ups actually played out. I can’t wait to se the Raven take on the 49ers this and the Vikings take on the Seahawks this weekend. I don’t know how I feel about the Bengals’ game against the Jets yet.

What I Know

That this is one of the highlight weeks of the season, where I can get to see an extra two games in a wee and four without knowing the scores (the joys of catching up in the UK) and so I’m determined to sit back and enjoy the games as much as I can.

What I Hope

I hope that whether your watching round work, taking a day off, or are in the States and celebrating the day, that you have a good one!

2019 Week Twelve Picks

24 Sunday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Picks Competition, Week 12 Picks

I now only have six weeks to make up the deficit and get back into the race for the picks competition, but first there is the minor matter of the trivia competition where once again I am losing…

‘In the 1996 season, quarterback Brett Favre set an NFC record when he threw 39 touchdown passes in regular season play. Who was the previous record holder?’

I love this question, but I don’t just know the answer. However, my informed guess is that this is going to be one of the great pre-Farve passers, but it has to be from a relatively recent season as if you go back to say the seventies the game was just different and the ball simply wasn’t thrown that much. Under these parameters, you might be tempted by either Steve Young or Joe Montana in the eighties, but I am going to plump for the hall of famer who never won the Super Bowl, or even got back there after his second season and so my informed guess would be Dan Marino – possibly in that 1984 season.

‘Tough one this week and it’s going to need some figuring out. I know the record has been broken since then as I believe Mahomes got about 50-odd last year. If Favre broke the record in the 1996 season it’ll have been someone who played before then, so you’ve got people like Dan Marino, Joe Montana, John Elway… I’ll go with Marino this week. If in doubt, stick with the Dolphins! (Make a note of that mantra, kids!)’

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-4.5)

This is a tricky game to pick as the Atlanta Falcons are on a two game win streak since their bye and look a team transformed, but whilst I expect them to win you just never know what you are going to get out of Jameis Winston. There is also the argument that divisional games are funny and this line is a point larger than I’m seeing as the consensus, which all point to me grabbing the points but I have been burnt several times by the Bucs and so I’m not leaning the other way this week.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Broncos @ Bills (-4.5)

The Denver Broncos took a big lead against the Vikings last week and beat the Cleveland Browns in week nine, but they are 3-7 for a reason and rank eighteenth overall by DVOA with only their defence being in the top ten. The reason this game is awkward to pick is that the Buffalo Bills may have the inverse 7-3 record but they actually rank twenty-fifth by DVOA and so whilst I think the Bills will win at home – this feels like a lot of points. However, that was what I said last week before the Bills convincingly beat the Dolphins. Having been proved wrong last week and not trusting the Broncos offence I’m going to take the Bills, but I am not convinced.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Giants @ Bears (-6.5)

The Chicago Bears are struggling on offence and all the talk at the moment is surrounding the problems that Mitchell Trubisky is having trying to run the offence in his third season. A game where they welcome the lowly New York Giants might be just the tonic they need, and whilst winning the game by a clear touchdown seems like a big ask, in three of their four wins the Bears have done just that whilst the Giants have only managed to win or be within seven four times this season. What does this mean? I don’t know and I am not sure that I actually want to do this, but I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

Steelers @ Bengals (+6.5)

The Cincinatti Bengals’ defence looked better last week, and the focus on running the ball now they are starting rookie quarterback Ryan Finley has increased the running production but this hasn’t got the Bengals a win. This week the Bengals will host a rested but possibly distracted Pittsburgh Steelers team who will be minus their starting centre after last week’s fight with the Browns. I think this will likely be a low scoring affair and for that reason only I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Dolphins @ Browns (-10.5)

The Miami Dolphins had been competitive for a number of weeks, but got beat badly last week. However, traveling to face the ill-disciplined Browns who will be missing Myles Garrett and so minus their best defensive player, I fancy the Dolphins to keep this game within eleven.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Lions @ Washington (+3.5)

The Detriot Lions might be playing with a backup quarterback and have only won two more games than Washingon, but I think there is a big difference between the teams and DVOA agrees so for me there’s only one way to go.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Raiders @ Jets (+2.5)

The New York Jets may have beaten Washington even more convincingly last week than they beat the Gaints in week ten, but that doesn’t mean they have magically turned things around. This week they face a team in the playoff hunt, who may have played a surprisingly tight game against the Bengals, but the Raiders won three games straight at home and I fancy them to win by at least a field goal in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Panthers @ Saints (-9.5)

The Carolina Panthers have only gone 1-4 since their bye and got beaten heavily by a rejuvenated Falcons team last week. It seems that Kyle Allen has struggled more since his opening four game win streak and this week they travel to New Orleans Saints team who made their own statement last week to get back to winning ways. This may be a divisional game, but I expect the Saints to win and with the 35.8% between these teams by DVOA a big win does not seem unlikely. Part of me wants to err on the side of caution but I need to pick some points up somewhere and so I’m going to back the Saints – very nervously…

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Seahawks @ Eagles (-1.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles are really struggling, if not already out of the playoff hunt and so can ill afford to lose again. However, the Seattle Seahawks have if anything been better on the road this season and I fancy them to win this game given how well they are playing.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5)

This is an intriguing matchup for me as the Tennessee Titans have gone on a run since moving Ryan Tannehill into the starting lineup and he has won three out of  this four games he started. The Titans could still drag themselves into the division race but that will likely involve winning all four of their division games left. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars need to find out what the difference between quarterbaks Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew really is. The Jaguars have won and lost in pairs this season, but such patterns are curious anomalies rather than something you can actually account for. If it feels like I am stalling, it is because I am, there is not much between these two teams in DVOA and that extra half point makes me hesitate but I have more faith in what the Titans are doing right now so I am going to reluctantly back the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Cowboys @ Patriots (-6.5)

This is a trap game. The New England Patriots have been surviving their problems on offence thanks to stellar defensive play and opportunistic special teams and with Tom Brady surfacing with a elbow injury and this number of points I am tempted to pick against them. The problem with that is the Cowboys’ inconsistency and the pick relying on Jason Garrett to be competitive with Bill Belichick. Still, I said I needed big swings to get back into contention and with Brady already struggling before surfacing on the injury report lets see if the Cowboys can put a performance together and keep it within seven.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Packers @ 49ers (-3.5)

This is one of the matchups of the week as the Green Bay Packers take their 8-2 record on the road to face the San Francisco 49ers. The problem for the Packers could be that whilst their defence has been better, their rush defence is only ranked twenty-eight in the league and going against the 49ers running game they could really struggle. The 49ers have only lost one game, and have established themselves as one of the teams to beat, but when you have Aaron Rodgers and a competent defence you always have a chance and so I’m gong to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Ravens @ Rams (+3.5)

The LA Rams really need this win, but I think they are in trouble on offence and so despite them having a top ten defence, they have been grinding out wins here and there. The Baltimore Ravens have me totally convinced now their defence is playing better and complementing their fearsome offence. This is a pretty big line to be giving up to last season’s NFC Super Bowl team, but I think the Ravens keep rolling in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Ravens

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Twelve

21 Thursday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Competition Thursday, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, NFL, Week 12 Picks

Here are our pick results for week eleven as we start week twelve whether I am ready or not.

Dan: Week 11:   9-5 Overall:   89-73
Dan’s Dad: Week 11:   8-6 Overall:   89-73
Gee: Week 11:   9-5 Overall:   83-79

Colts @ Texans (-3.5)

I’m looking forward to this game, but I am really not sure where to go as whilst both teams have their injury problems, they kind of cancel each other out as the Texans secondary is as injured as the Colts’ offensive skills positions. That might account for the extra half point between these two 6-4 teams who are playing a huge divisional game tonight. In the end, I am going to plump for the always over simplistic better quarterback who has more of his own players available to grab the edge, and whilst that extra half point is going to worry me until the game is over – that’s what I shall have to live with.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Week 12 Trivia

‘Week 11 was an odd week in many ways with some large spreads making the Picks side tricky. That said we saw Gee return to the scoring we have become used to (9); Dan also reaching (9) to level up at the top after I returned a (8). So, with six weeks to go and six points covering top to bottom, no chickens are yet being counted and the colours of the TWF logo remains in the balance.

The Bengals were 2nd best again but can take some heart in the Raiders failing to cover the spread. The Bills at the Dolphins is a game that Dan and I was a few years back but this year the Bills were too strong and more than covered the spread. The Vikes hosted the Broncos, another game I saw years back, the Randy Moss Lateral game, and I think Dan and I could both see the Vikings win but not by enough for the spread and that in fact is exactly what happened.

Standings wise I think we have known for a while that the Bengals and Dolphins ships have sailed but the NFC North looks like another two horse race with the Packers and Vikes tied on eight wins but with Minnesota on a bye week I have to look to the 49ers beating the packers in Sundays late game. Looking ahead though I think the three weeks of the regular season will be pivotal.

OK – the Trivia bit for week 11 asked:

What highly touted player his entire 9 year career with the Detroit Lions after he was selected with the 2nd overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft?

Well both Dan and Gee knew that this was Calvin Johnson so 2 points each leaves Gee on 11 but Dan’s theme bonus last week edges it for him at 14. Oddly I had considered offering an extra point for Johnsons nickname. Dan included that it was ‘Megatron’ but I hadn’t asked it so there you go.

Here’s one for Week 12 then as our road-trip pulls into Green Bay. Not sure how this will go but I want to know:

In the 1996 season, quarterback Brett Favre set an NFC record when he threw 39 touchdown passes in regular season play. Who was the previous record holder?

There are some great names to play for – who gets your vote?

Bye week for now’

TWF Midweek Post: On the Road Edition

20 Wednesday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Brown, Colin Kaepernick, International Series, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Chargers, Mason Rudolph, Myles Garrett, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tua Tagovailoa

So this is a bit of an improvised post as I’m on the road for work, in a hotel but still working so I’m going to try a quick sprint through the usual format from week eleven.

What I Saw

The week started with the Cleveland Browns hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, winning the game and still managing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The Browns won the game convincingly thanks to the four interceptions Mason Rudolph threw, but on the last play of the game a tussle between players escalated when Myles Garrett not only pulled off Rudolph’s helmet, but used it as a weapon and although he hit Rudolph in the head with it – he got lucky in that Rudolph was not seriously hurt. However, Garrett has been suspended for the season, which is totally understandable, and as the best player on the Browns’ defence this could snuff out what small chances they had of making the playoffs

On Sunday we got to see the Cincinnati Bengals travel to the Oakland Raiders and make the game competitive. I said I wouldn’t back the Bengals to keep a game within ten until I saw it, and on Sunday we saw it thanks to a tougher defensive performance. I don’t know if it can be the start of something, but it was nice to watch a game and not know the result in the fourth quarter. As for the Raiders, well they continue to impress and maintain their place in the chasing pack for the playoff. They may not actually make the post-season but they look like they are heading in the right direction with two more wins than they managed in all of last season.

The final game I saw was the final international game of the season when the LA Chargers hosted the Kansas City Chiefs in Mexico City’s Azteca stadium. Obviously it’s a step in the right direction with the game actually getting played this year, although the turf still looked like it was cutting up a little, but it was quite the spectacle in an impressive stadium. However, it was a curious game on the field as the Chiefs never quite took off on offensive and continued to struggle to stop the run, but they were able to generate enough turnovers, including four interceptions of Philip Rivers to overcome being out-gained by over one hundred and twenty yards and win 24-17. It feels like if the Chiefs do make the playoffs, no one will want to face them whilst for the Chargers, the injuries have combined with Philip Rivers suddenly struggling to hold everything together to sink the season. I’m not saying that Rivers is done or that he won’t play well next week, but if feels like his chance of making a Super Bowl is slipping away.

What I Heard

The big stories have been the brawl at the end of the Thursday night game, with no one questioning Garrett’s suspension or the two Steeler linemen who retaliated for the attack on their quarterback.

Next we had the curious situation with the Colin Kaepernick workout, which was unusual because the league announced it, seemingly out of nowhere and giving him a couple of hours to agree or not. Additionally in the strange column was holding it on a Saturday when most big decision makers wouldn’t attend as they would be preparing for Sunday, as opposed to Tuesday – the tradition day for teams to work out potential new signings. The situation continues to get muddled as Kaepernick then refused to sign an NFL waiver that I’ve heard would have prevented him from future legal action as well as any injury responsibility. Kaepernick’s change of plan was to stage his own workout in front of a handful of NFL people and his own camera crew (who the league also would allow to film/publish) – and whist I think I can understand some or most of this, I get the feeling we won’t be seeing him in the league any time soon, if at all. He stuck to his principles but you can already see how some will spin this as being unwilling to put the team ahead of the individual.

Finally, in a rare side step into college football for TWF, the big news for those in the middle of the 2019 NFL Tankapalooza – was that Tua Tagovailoa dislocated his hip this weekend, throwing again into the question of losing games for draft picks. For me the real shame is that Tua did this in college whilst not getting paid a cent, and I hope that he can get healthy again and play up to his potential whoever it may be for.

What I Think

I think that this season is continuing the transition from the quarterback stars we are so familiar with to the new generation. You can’t see Eli Manning holding on for much longer longer if we ever see him again, for the first time Philip Rivers is struggling to keep his team competitive, and even Tom Brady is looking mortal. Meanwhile, after Patrick Mahomes announced himself last season, it is Lamar Jackson’s turn for a tilt at MVP, whilst Deshaun Watson continues to impress with the Texans. This makes the struggles of Mitch Trubisky even tougher for fans of the Bears to watch knowing that their franchise was tricked into trading up to take him when they could have stayed put and picked Watson or Mahomes.

What I Know

That I seem to be talking an awful lot about quarterbacks this season and I’m beginning to worry about myself.

What I Hope

I would hope that next week I could get back to something like a normal week, but of course it’s Thanksgiving, so I hope we get three good games to watch!

2019 Week Eleven Picks

17 Sunday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Picks Competition, Week 11 Picks

Time to find out if I can get back into the picks competition, but let’s start with the trivia competition where Dan also has a strong lead.

‘What highly touted player spent his entire 9 year career with the Detroit Lions after he was selected as the 2nd overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft?’

So having failed miserably to spot the theme, there’s just this week’s question to deal with and I’m very happy with this one as I am sure the answer is Calvin Johnson.

‘Ok, I know this one, but I think Gee will too so I’m not sure it’ll have much impact on the lead unfortunately. Retiring after 9 years would have meant him retiring in 2016 and I remember discussing on the pod how it seemed too early for this guy to retire – the answer is Calvin ‘Megatron’ Johnson.’

Falcons @ Panthers (-5.5)

The Atlanta Falcons looked like a different team coming off a bye, beating the Saints convincing, but the question is whether this turnaround is sustainable and not just a divisional blip. The Falcons are playing the Carolina Panthers who lost to the Packers last week and whilst I’m not sure the Falcons can manage a repeat win, this is too many points for me to lay on the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Bills @ Dolphins (+5.5)

The Buffalo Bills are a confounding team as they are the twenty-fourth ranked team by overall DVOA and yet they currently are in a wildcard spot. They travel to face the now two win Miami Dolphins and whilst I can see the Bills winning, this is once again too many points for me to lay.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Cowboys @ Lions (+4.5)

I was totally caught out last week as the Detroit Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford could not play as he has a fracture of his transverse processes in his back. A fracture of the back always sounds scary, but these will be playing in a few weeks, but not right now. The Dallas Cowboys are not a team I like to predict as they often seem to be less than the sum of their parts this season, but facing a backup quarterback I like them in this one where I have seen the line as high a +7 for the Lions.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Broncos @ Vikings (-10.5)

I hate this line as the Denver Broncos have been really unreliable, and whilst rested and coming of a win in week nine you really can’t trust them. However, whilst I expect the Minnesota Vikings to win, I’m not sure I trust them to cover this line given that they have not exactly been consistent performers either. In the end. I’m going to grab the points in this one as the Broncos defence has got itself back into the top ten by DVOA and the Vikings will be missing Adam Thielen as he tries to get his hamstring healthy.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Broncos

Jaguars @ Colts (-2.5)

This is a game that I would love to avoid as the Indianapolis Colts might be getting Jaoby Brissett back, but have injuries at receiver whilst the Jacksonville Jaguars look to be starting Nick Foles after he recovered from his broken collar bone. There are so many variables, no real help from the number, and there is only 0.9% between them in overall DVOA so I feel like I need to get hold of a picking pin. The nearest I can get is that the Colts only need to win by a field goal to cover and they are at home so that’s where I’m going but this game could go either way…

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Saints @ Buccaneers (+5.5)

This divisional game is curious one as the New Orleans Saints will be looking to bounce back against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers having lost to the Falcons last week, but the Bucs have been frequently competitive thanks to the peaks of Jameis Winston and a quality receiving group. However, the unpredictable thing here is what Saints team we are getting and how many turnovers is Winston going to be responsible for. I’m going to grab the home underdog and hope, but this could be a big mistake.

Gee’s Pick:        Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Jets @ Washington (-1.5)

There is very little to rely on here as Washington have been bad all years, whilst the Jets got a second win last week as they announced that Adam Gase will be the coach next year. This being the New York Jets I don’t know if that is actually true, but given the absence of home advantage in Washington I am going to reluctantly pick the Jets.

Gee’s Pick:        Jets
Dan’s Pick:        Jets

Texans @ Ravens (-4.5)

This should be a cracking game that pits two of the more exciting quarterback against each other, The worry for the Houston Texans is having traded away Jadeveon Clowney in the off-season and lost JJ Watt for the season to injury their front seven is not looking nearly as strong and the Baltimore Ravens are just rolling at the moment. There was no let down for the Ravens against the Bengals last week and Lamar Jackson is playing like the MVP candidate he is. The Texans have had a bye week to prepare for Jackson, and given that Deshaun Watson is pretty good with his legs as well there can be informed internal discussions about stopping a running quarterback, but the Texans are too reliant on the spectacular on offence so I’m going to take the Ravens despite the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Cardinals @ 49ers (-13.5)

I think this line is off. I do think that the San Francisco 49ers will get back to winning ways but on a short week having lost to the Seahawks on Monday I find it hard to see them beating the Arizona Cardinals by two clear touchdowns given how competitive the Cardinals have been.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Cardinals

Bengals @ Raiders (-10.5)

I want to pick the Cincinnati Bengals as this is a big line, but even if their offence does improve with Ryan Finley starting his second game at quarterback, I have no faith in a defence that just cut Preston Brown and has real problems at linebacker. I would love to be proven wrong, but I am not going to pick the Bengals until I see them keep it close.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Patriots @ Eagles (+3.5)

This line is horrible as the New England Patriots always respond after a loss and have had a bye to prepare for this trip to the Philadelphia Eagles, but there are problems with the Patriots offence this year as they can’t run the ball. The Eagles are still a top ten team by DVOA despite their injury problems, and I’m really tempted to grab the points at home but I’ve just been bitten too many times betting against the Patriots to do it this time.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Bears @ Rams (-6.5)

Both the Chicago Bears and the LA Rams are struggling on offence, although for different reasons yet both look to be slipping out of the playoffs this season. Given the problem with the Rams’ offensive line you can see Khalil Mack wrecking this game and the Rams have too many other injuries on offence for me to back them to win by a touchdown.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Chiefs @ Chargers (+3.5)

This Monday night marquee matchup is not quite what it looked like when drawn up as the LA Chargers have been hit by injuries and for first time Philip Rivers hasn’t been able to carry on regardless. This could be a spectacular game as the Kansas City Chiefs finally have all their big names on offence healthy, but the defence is just plain bad. The Chiefs can’t afford many more losses, yet alone a divisional one and so despite them losing to the Titans last week, I’m going to back them on the road against the Chargers.

Gee’s Pick:        Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Eleven

14 Thursday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Cleveland Browns, Competition Thursday, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers

So Dan and I were broadly in agreement in week ten, and the places where we disagreed cancelled each other out, whilst 3D struck with a nine point week to grab the lead. I need some points in a hurry, but I’m determined no to panic and stick to my system. At least for now…

Dan’s Dad: Week 10:   9-4 Overall:   81-67
Dan: Week 10:   6-7 Overall:   80-68
Gee: Week 10:   6-7 Overall:   74-74

Steelers @ Browns (-2.5)

I’m really looking forward to this game as I want to take a look at the Pittsburgh Steelers defence and it was only that this game taking place that stopped me watching the Steelers’ game against the Rams last week. The Cleveland Browns offence is not exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment, but the Browns did win their first game since week four on Sunday. I am curious to see the Browns again, but I have a lot more faith in Mike Tomlin and the Steelers so I’m picking with points, even if the Steelers are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:     Steelers
Dan’s Pick:     Steelers

Week 9 Trivia

‘Even if you didn’t see the games this week, just looking at the numbers proved that the run in to the post season has started to ignite some fires in the bellies of those with something to achieve. In the simplest analysis we saw 10 of the 13 match-ups finish with 7 or fewer points advantage and an amazing 7 games finishing within 4 points including the final game on Monday night where the Seahawks triumphed over the 49ers in overtime.

In our Pick-‘em league some of the spreads made us think but it is fair to say that we have a run where everyone is in with a chance. After last week’s comeback I was able to continue this with a pleasing score of 9 while Dan and Gee ran out with 6. What the season has told us though is not to count chickens and that comebacks are 10 a penny.

This week’s trivia question asked what achievement Peyton Manning and Brett Favre share that no other QB has.

There were some interesting and creditable guesses around reaching Divisional and Conferences but this week I was looking for them being the only 2 QB’s to have recorded wins against all 32 teams. An interesting fact but sadly no points here.

However, I can report movement on the theme front where Dan not only identified the link but proved it by predicting the teams for the next 2 questions. Followers will remember that we started Wk 1 with a question on the Arizona Cardinals, then onto the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens. So the link has been, drum roll please, The full titles of the featured teams have been in alphabetical order. Which gives Dan 3 bonus points to open a lead of 12 to 9 over Gee.

And onto the next stop which is, as predicted, The Detroit Lions. So in Motown this week’s question is:

What highly touted player spent his entire 9 year career with the Detroit Lions after he was selected as the 2nd overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft?

Now it’s up to you – until next week then. 3D’

Dragging Themselves into the Playoff Race

13 Wednesday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Brian Flores, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleve, Derek Carr, Eric Harris, Indianapolis Colts, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Mixon, Jon Gruden, Josh Jacobs, LA Chargers, Lamar Jackson, London Games, Miami Dolphins, Mike Tomlin, Minkah Fitzpatrick, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Patrick Ricard, Philip Rivers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Russell Wilson, Ryan Finley, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks

If the season in the NFL has been characterised by a few teams with good records and some with very bad records who are already turning their eyes to next season, then my season covering it has been one of scrambling to get posts out, and occasionally getting coaching tape watched. This week I find myself further behind in my process than I would like to be so let’s see what I can get out this evening.

What I Saw

The first game of week ten saw the Oakland Raiders host the LA Chargers and run out narrow 26-24 winners to get themselves into the playoff hunt despite a five week streak of road games that including them hosting the Bears in London. It was not a spectacular team performance, but Josh Jacobs gained one hundred combined rushing and receiving yards as the rookie running back continues to impress as the centre of Jon Gruden’s offence. I also through that Derek Carr looked sharp and in control of the offence, but with a total of only two-hundred and seventy-eight yards it was the team performance that got the win. The LA Chargers actually out gained the Raiders in total offence and rushed for one hundred and forty-six yards but the Raiders were able to get five sacks as they got pressure all game and picked off Philip Rivers three times with another voided by a holding penalty. That voided interception would have been Eric Harris’s third, but he still got over one hundred return yards and a touchdown from his two picks that counted. The Chargers have been competitive for a lot of their games despite their injuries but at 4-6 they would need a spectacular closing run to make the playoffs and I struggle to see them winning five or six of their remaining games to get to the nine or ten wins they’ll likely need to get to the post season.

On to the Sunday games and I’ll start with the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Baltimore Ravens, which was no contest and there’s really not a lot I can say further about the Bengals. There wasn’t much difference in result for the Bengals, although Joe Mixon got a hundred yards off the back of thirty carries as the offensive game plan was rejigged for rookie quarterback Ryan Finley’s first regular season start, who was not great and threw a couple of interceptions but wasn’t awful. The defence is awful though, but the worst part is that I love the Ravens setup at the moment, Lamar Jackson is a special player to watch and the spin move he pulled off in this game is going to be on many a highlight reel. In fact Jackson has the eleventh most rushing yards in the league as well as being top ten in passer rating so it’s no surprise that he is in the discussion for league MVP. I also want to mention Patrick Ricard who is playing both ways for the Ravens, lining up as a three hundred pound full-back and playing on the defensive line, picking up a couple of solo tackles and a sack in this game. There really a lot about the Ravens that the TWF team are enthused by, I just with they weren’t in the same division as the Bengals!

Speaking of the TWF team, the other Sunday game I watched was Dan’s Miami Dolphins taking on the Indianapolis Colts and recording their second win of the year. It wasn’t a pretty game, and the defences did most of the work, but despite all the roster turnover and being bottom of the DVOA rankings, Brian Flores has made the Dolphins competitive for several weeks and now has two wins. It may not be what they wanted in terms of draft position next year, but I think they have a coach that is going to maximise the influx of talent is coming. As for the Colts, they were also competitive and the roster is still playing well, but the injury to Jacoby Brissett was a quarterback injury too far and they will be hoping that Brissett will be there for the run of three division games that are coming up. They are not out of the playoff hunt, but as the situation muddies in the AFC this is a loss they could come to regret.

Finally, the Monday night game lived up to its top billing as the Seattle Seahawks won in the last seconds of overtime with a field goal separating them for the now beaten San Francisco 49errs. It was a topsy-turvy game where the 49ers looked the better team at the start with their defence halting the Seahawks and the 49ers taking a ten point lead that held up until half-time. However, the Seahawks took a lead in the third quarter that despite getting level multiple times, the 49ers were not able to regain and the worry for the 49ers is that when it really mattered, it was Russell Wilson who got his team into a position to win and got them over the line. It could well be different the next time these teams play, but Jimmy Garoppolo could have thrown a couple more interceptions in the second half if Seahawks defenders were able to hold onto the ball and that is a worry for the 49ers. We get a rematch in week seventeen and I am already looking forward to it!

What I Heard

I don’t have big central point to expand on here, but there’s several snippets that spring to mine. One is that the volatility of the league was on full display, and that’s not an excuse for another poor week picking.

The Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints, which I’m not sure anyone saw coming, although the points should have been tempting in this divisional game where both teams were coming off a bye. The interesting thing from my point of view was the talk of the Falcons pass rush chasing Drew Brees around, which is surprising as the Falcons pass rush has been struggling this season and the Saints offensive line is one of the better units in the league, so I’ll be taking a look at that on coaching tape if the opportunity arises.

What I Think

I am not ruling any team with five wins out of the playoff hunt, but there are a couple of those five win teams who have really pulled themselves back into contention rather than are still hanging on. The Raiders have won two weeks in a row to take second place in the AFC South, but the team who have caught my eye are another AFC North team, and not the Cleveland Browns. The Pittsburgh Steelers started the season 1-4, lost their franchise quarterback, and I was as surprised as anyone when their response was to trade for Minkah Fitzpatrick and not stock up picks and prepare for a high draft pick next year. In stead Fitazpatrick has helped the Steelers defence turn into the third best unit in the league by DVOA, and it is this defence and not asking backup quarterback Mason Rudolph to do too much that has enabled the Steelers to win four straight games and drag themselves back into the playoff hunt. I’m not saying they’ll get there, but the Steelers stand more chance than the Browns and that is thanks to some really impressive coaching by Mike Tomlin and his staff, plus the work done by the Steelers’ front office.

What I Know

I am still enjoying the NFL season despite the woeful performance of the Bengals, and I’m not feeling the grind as Dan and I have in the past back when we were podcasting, but it would be nice if work calmed down a little bit so I could dig in more. Sadly, I suspect that is unlikely and this is going to be the shape of the 2019 season. I shall make the best of it as I can, we are now past the halfway point of the regular season and before we know it the Thanksgiving games will be here and we’ll be staring at the playoff schedule.

What I Hope

I’ve not been able to settle on a singe NFC team to embrace to counteract the Bengals losing, but thanks to covering the league there’s plenty of intrigue and things to watch – but I hope the Bengals get a win at some point. It’s one thing for a season to go wrong and to get the first pick in the draft, controlling the whole might be exciting when we get there, but I wouldn’t wish a winless season on any player yet alone those playing for the team I support.

2019 Week Ten Picks

10 Sunday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Tags

NFL, Picks Competition, Week 10 Picks

Time for me to get back on the horse and see if I can get; myself back into contention in the picks competition, but first there’s the minor matter of trivia competition.

‘Bronco’s Peyton Manning along with Brett Favre are the only 2 QB’s to have achieved what?’

So this is a trickier question, but I think the answer is that they are the only two quarterbacks to get to the Conference Championship game with two different franchises, with Farve doing it with the Packers and Vikings, whilst Manning managed it with the Colts and Broncos.

It is my week to be flummoxed but the trivia theme, I’m sure I’m going to kick myself when we finally find out what it is. As for Dan:

‘Absolutely wracking my brain trying to work out the link between Peyton Manning and Brett Favre – I really feel like I should know this but nothing is coming to mind at all. I’m going to say “they’re both players who I wish I’d seen live” and that way there’s no way I can be wrong!

On the theme, the only thing I have noticed is that the questions are all about different teams running alphabetically – i.e. with this week’s being Denver, I’m sure next week’s question will be about the Detroit Lions, and the following week will be the Green Bay Packers… etc. Let’s go with that!’

Falcons @ Saints (-12.5)

It looks like the Atlanta Falcons will be getting Matt Ryan back from his ankle sprain but even with them being rested coming off a bye it is hard to trust this 1-7 squad, particularly with the defence being ranked thirtieth by DVOA. Given the Saints are coming off their own bye and have been beating teams for fun I’m going to take the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Bills @ Browns (-2.5)

The Cleveland Browns inspire no trust at the moment and so whilst I have been hesitant in the past about the Buffalo Bills’ offence, when I’m getting points I’m going to back the team I think is definitely better. On any given Sunday anything can happen, but I feel comfortable this is the more likely result.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Lions @ Bears (-2.5)

The Chicago Bears are really struggling, and I have learned my lesson from last week. The Bears probably can’t help but gain more yards this week, but with the quarterback situation being what it is I have to go with the Detroit Lions, even if they are struggling to win, they have always been competitive.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Ravens @ Bengals (+9.5)

I’m hoping that the Cincinnati Bengals’ offence shows something this week with Ryan Finley getting his first NFL regular season start, but I have no faith in the defence being able to contain the Ravens’ running game. There has been some talk of a let down game for the Ravens having beaten the Patriots last week, but in this division matchup I fear that things won’t get much better for the Bengals.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Ravens

Chiefs @ Titans (+3.5)

It looks like the Kansas City Chiefs could get Patrick Mahomes back this week, but I trust Andy Reid to keep the Chiefs competitive whoever lines up under centre. I can’t quite say the same for the Tennessee Titans, who look to have a more functional offence with Ryan Tannehill starting at quarterback but I’m not sure they have enough to win this game. I have seen the line as high as six points to the Titans so I’m going make a value play on the better team and hope.

Gee’s Pick:        Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Giants @ Jets (+2.5)

It is a strange world where the New York Giants are giving points on the road against anyone, except this the home stadium for both teams and the New York Jets are currently imploding. I don’t really want to pick at all in this game, but I am reluctantly going to back the Giants as they only need a field goal to cover this and the Jets lost to the Dolphins last week.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

Cardinals @ Buccaneers (-4.5)

This is a sneaky intriguing game as the Arizone Cardinals have been relatively competitive in Kliff Kingsbury’s first NFL season, and it looks as if the pairing of him and quarterback Kyler Murray have a future, but the roster still needs a lot of work. The Buccaneers have played well in stretches, but Jameis Winston just cannot seem to stop himself from giving the ball away in clusters. This line feels a little high considering that the Bucs are 2-6 so I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Dolphins @ Colts (-10.5)

Nevermind the Miami Dolphins getting a win last week, they have been competitive for a few weeks now and with the Indianapolis Colts missing Jacoby Brissett due to an MCL sprain and continuing to have kicking problems I am going to grab the points. I’m not saying the Colts can’t win or beat this line, the Dolphins are after all resetting their roster, but this is too many points for me to be laying with the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Panthers @ Packers (-5.5)

The good news for the Carolina Panthers is that Kyle Allen bounced back from his awful performance against the 49ers and they got the win last week. The good news for the Packers is that they are back in Green Bay and they have a chance to get back to winning ways after an awful performance in LA against the Chargers last week. I still think the Packers are going to make trouble in the playoffs, and I can see them winning this game but I think this is too many points to be laying against the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Rams @ Steelers (+3.5)

I do not trust the LA Rams, who are having a difficult season that largely look to be down to problems on the offensive line and although they have stabilised over recent week, they have a tough schedule coming up. This week they travel to face a Pittsburgh Steelers team who have got themselves back to 4-4 having lost their opening three games and four of their first five. I’m not sure how much I trust the Steelers given their injuries on offence but getting this many points at home feels like a good spot to me, even if the Rams are coming off a bye.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Vikings @ Cowboys (-2.5)

The Minnesota Vikings could have won last week, and certainly should have covered if it were not for a missed extra performance, but the play of Kirk Cousins concerns me as he threw wayward passes for a lot of that game and once again will be missing Adam Thielen after he reaggravated his hamstring injury. The Dalla Cowboys have seemingly struggled to put everything together at the same time, and their defence doesn’t seem to be living up to expectations but they are fourth in the league by DVOA for a reason and I like them in this spot.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Seahawks @ 49ers (-6.5)

This is definitely the game of the week for me, as the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who are only one win behind them in the division. The Seahawks have managed this mostly on the back of excellent play from Russell Wilson who has been excelling in making things happen in the passing game, in fact he’s been doing so well that they lead the league in passing offence DVOA. The weakness however is the uncharacteristically poor Seattle defence who are currently twenty-seventh by DVOA. The 49ers sit atop the over DVOA rankings, have the second best defence according to DVOA, and Jimmy Garoppolo had a great game last week. I think this game should be really competitive and I think this line is too high. I could be proven spectacularly wrong as either team could win big, but I’m going to back the Seahawks to keep this contest within a touchdown.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week 10

07 Thursday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Tags

LA Chargers, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Picks Competition, Week 10 Picks

I had a truly awful run of picking games in week nine, I think as bad as I remember and it has seen me fall to the bottom of the table as Dan consolidated his lead from last week and 3D started his own climb back to the top. With eight weeks to go there is plenty of time to claw back the advantage, but I can’t afford too many more weeks like that last one!

Dan: Week 9:   9-5 Overall:   74-61
Dan’s Dad: Week 9:   11-3 Overall:   72-63
Gee: Week 9:   3-11 Overall:   68-67

Chargers @ Raiders (+1.5)

This is an interesting divisional game that pits two teams coming off a win. The best theory I’ve heard about the LA Chargers beating the Packers last week is that getting Melvin Ingram back and healthy meant that teams could no longer just focus on Joey Bosa and this transformed their defence, but they are still one of the most injured teams in the league. They face an Oakland Raiders team who beat the Lions last week having lost to the Texans and Packers in the previous two weeks. The Raiders have been one win above or below .500 all season and have been more competitive than I thought going into the season. I’ve been struggling with Thursday night games all season, but the combination of home teams and points is too tempting to resist even if Dan agrees with me.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Week 9 Trivia

‘What I said a few weeks ago about the unpredictability we see weekly has come back with a vengeance particularly in the Picks competition. Thinking back Dan and I have tended to trail in Gee’s wake and were reliant on a well-timed closing run to overcome him. This year Dan has built up a head of steam and thanks to an uncharacteristic 3-11 for Gee and took the lead on his own – for, as I recall it the first time in 2 seasons. This demonstrates what has become a very consistent run but I, having seen my chances falter, turned in my own 11-3 and we have a true 3-way competition.

On the field the Vikes suffered a late loss to the Chiefs but with all 4 teams in the division losing the playoff hopes are alive with the Vikes hosting the Packers and Bears in weeks 16 and 17. Bring it on. For once we can report that the Bengals didn’t lose thanks to being on a Bye but, shock horror – the Dolphins overcome the Jets. It might be a little late, but it will have gone down well.

In the Trivia, for week 9 we were in Dallas and I asked Which Dallas quarterback was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2006?

I said you would know the name of Troy Aikman and I was right. He played his entire career for Dallas from 1989-2000 and was a first round, first pick for the Cowboys in the 1989 draft. After 12 consecutive seasons as starting QB he is better known now working for Fox TV

So that’s 2 points each to Dan and Gee leaving them tied on 9 points but the theme remains unsolved.

Right, its Week 10 and we find ourselves in Denver to look at the Bronco’s and my question is:

The Bronco’s Peyton Manning along with Brett Favre are the only 2 QB’s to have achieved what?

That’s enough from me – and in the words or Robin Williams who appeared as a Cheerleader  at the Mile High in an episode of Mork and Mindy – Na Nu Na Nu’

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