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2018 Week Ten Picks

11 Sunday Nov 2018

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I’m not sure I could have been more wrong about the Thursday night game, but I’m still not sure the pick was wrong with what we knew but the Steelers ran away with the game and I have a nasty feeling they will be extending their lead at the top of the AFC North this week. Anyway, before that I have the minor matter of a trivia pick to get wrong.

‘This week we have the reverse fixture from week 1 when I asked you which was the Highest stadium of the 31 in the NFL but this time I want to ask about the lowest. As with Mile High being the highest the Saints Superdome at just 3 feet would also be too easy so who is 2nd and what ‘altitude’ are they at? I’ll offer UP TO 2 points for the right answers this week. Is that, I hear you ask, a clue?

It’s a Fair Catch’

So I’m really struggling this week as I don’t have that great a knowledge of American geography but the lowest stadium is going to be on the coast somewhere and if the New Orleans stadium is the lowest I’m going to with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Raymond James Stadium and guess it is four feet above sea level.

‘I’m pretty confident I’m picking up the points this week, and that’s largely based on the giant clue that Dad has given us! I think the answer is Los Angeles (two points – two teams…).’

Having seen Dan’s answer I’m now feeling particularly dumb…

Falcons @ Browns (+4.5)

So on the face of it this is a horrible game to pick. However, the Browns have now lost four straight and have no settled infrastructure around a rookie quarterback whilst the Falcons have found a way to win three straight. The home underdog points are always tempting, but with the Browns having lost their last two games by a combined thirty-one points I think the Falcons might be able to run up the score again and I am going to need more points than this to pick the dysfunctional Browns.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Bills @ Jets (-7.5)

This seems like a lot of points to be laying by a New York Jets team who are struggling to move the ball. I am not prepared to give up on Sam Darnold but with the injuries at receiver and with a defensive minded head coach I don’t see things changing much this season and now that he is injured we have Josh McCown starting. However, whilst the Jets offence is bad, the Bills’ offence is historically putrid, although Matt Barkley is expected to make the start this week, but the only thing we can really trust is that we have a matchup of two top ten defences. This is not a recipe for points and so I’m going to hold my nose and pick the Bills in what is likely to be a pretty awful watch. I would love to be proven wrong, and I may well get the pick wrong given the flux at quarterback, but I doubt this game will set many pulses racing.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Lions @ Bears (-6.5)

I am really interested in seeing this game as it pits two divisional rivals against each other with the Chicago Bears riding high off their second big win and are hosting the up and down Detroit Lions. The Lions are something of an enigma to me as they have a couple of good wins but overall they seem to be heading in the wrong direction and the front office appears to be making long term decisions, which won’t help them win right now. This feels like a lot of points but given the Lions have lost their last two games by more than eight points and the Bears have won it this either means the trend is set to continue or due for a change. I’m going to back the better team in this one but I don’t exactly feel happy about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Saints @ Bengals (+4.5)

This game really scares me. The hope is that we get some bad weather that hinders Drew Brees, but with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram running the ball against the Bengals suspect run defence they might not need Brees to be at his best. This is without even considering how the Bengals offence will function minus AJ Green. I am hoping to be proven wrong, and will gladly lose the point but I don’t think I am.

I always wanted to take a moment to mark Dez Bryant tearing his Achilles having signed for the Saints, which is just a horrible thing to happen for a player trying to find a way back into the league after not finding a team during the offseason and could be potentially career ending.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Patriots @ Titans (+7.5)

This is another intriguing game, but given the New England Patriots recent form it is hard to see them not covering any points spread. The Tennessee Titans have been grinding through the season with their new coaching team but the offence has not been turned around under Matt LaFLeur as people were hoping and with a DVOA ranking of twenty-sixth that goes with a defensive ranking of twentieth they have done well to be 4-4. Given the Patriots have rounded into form as they usually do I’m going to back them even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Jaguars @ Colts (-2.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost four straight and coming off a bye they are hoping to get Leonard Fournette back from injury, which they will be desperate for as the offence just hasn’t functioned without him. The strange thing with this team has been the lack of discipline and this week we’ve had AJ Bouye rule himself out with injury to the press, which was news to head coach Doug Marrone. They travel to face an Indianapolis Colts team who have the same 3-5 record but they are heading in the opposite direction after last season and it will be interesting to see what the result is. I’m struggling with the line in this one as if Fournette can re-establish the power run game that would help the Jaguars control he clock and have a functional offence then they might be able to look more like the team who went to the playoffs last season, but there are a lot of unknowns. I’d like to stay well away from this game, but seeing as we can’t I am going to back the team with the better DVOA ranking who only need to win by a field goal to cover but I don’t exactly feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Cardinals @ Chiefs (-16.5)

The Arizona Cardinals are coming of a bye and face a ridiculously difficult game going against the buzzsaw that is the Kansas City Chiefs at home. There seems to be a lot of positive feeling about Byron Letwich who has taken over as offensive coordinator for the Cardinals and their defence is actually rated top ten by DVOA, but defence isn’t exactly a predictor of success in the NFL with six of the top ten defences by DVOA belonging to teams with losing records and the Seahawks are 4-4. This is way too many points to give and looking at the Chiefs they have only managed to win by the required seventeen points once, and yes that was against the Bengals and so I’m going to guarantee they do it a second time by backing the Cardinals to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Washington @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

This is such a tough spot for Washington after the cluster of injuries on their offensive line they travel to a warm muggy Tampa who are a dangerous 3-5. The Buccaneers have huge problems on defence but can at least move the ball on offence through the air and stand a fighting chance with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at quarterback. I’m going to nervously back the Buccaneers given the flux in Washington on the line of an offence that only ranked twentieth before this happened, but this is another shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Chargers @ Raiders (+9.5)

The lines this week all seem to be horrible, and now we head into a run of nine and a half point lines. The first is given to the Raiders at home because they have been awful. Despite this being a divisional matchup I strongly fancy the Chargers to win but this is a lot of points. That said the Raiders have to look back to their week four win over the Browns for the last time they managed not to lose by more than ten points and I don’t see where a magical turnaround is coming from so the Chargers it is.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Dolphins @ Packers (-9.5)

The Miami Dolphins are still in the hunt for the playoffs despite their up and down play but they have not been good on the road and Green Bay is not exactly the easiest of places to play. That said, the Packers are on something of an iffy run themselves although losing to the Rams and Patriots is hardly a horrific drop in form but at 3-4-1 they are in desperate need of wins. They have the ninth best offence by DVOA despite having arguably the most talented quarterback in the league and I think they will win this game but this seems like too many points for a team whose only big win was against the Bills. I’m going to back the Dolphins to keep it closer than ten points and hope I don’t jinx Dan’s team too badly.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Seahawks @ Rams (-9.5)

The Seattle Seahawks travel to face a now defeated LA Rams team but losing on the road to the Saints like the Rams did last week is hardly something to be embarrassed about. There are still some wobbles in the Rams’ play but I think they have more than enough to beat a Seahawks team who are one of the few teams who are still managing to win with the formula of defence and running the ball. This is line is too rich for me given the Rams’ recent run of form against teams that are not the 49ers and so I’ll back the Seahawks to keep it within ten even if I think the Rams get back to winning ways and can seal a playoff berth with a win.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Cowboys @ Eagles (-6.5)

I am curious enough about this game that I’m going to watch it given the ongoing mess that is going on in Dallas, but more because I want to see the Eagles and in particular how Golden Tate will be worked into the offence. Given the Eagles are coming off a bye and really need to push on if they are going to make the playoffs they really need a win and I expect them to get it but this is another big line. However, the Cowboys have lost all of their road games so far this season and having lost to the Titans by fourteen points I’m going to back the team with the coaching staff I have more faith in, although with the now standard caveat that I’m not happy about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Giants @ 49ers (-2.5)

I’m wary of reading too much into the 49ers win against the Raiders last week, but Nick Mullens is to get his second start and a rested 49ers team will face a New York Giants team coming off a bye but how much of difference will that have made? They may next to be each other in the overall DVOA rankings but I have more faith in the 49ers coming off a win and generating something than the Giants who were moving out pieces from their defence at the trade deadline.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

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Competition Thursday: 2018 Week 10

08 Thursday Nov 2018

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I’m very happy to have got back to a winning record picking games as well as extending a lead over Dan in the trivia competition, although I don’t think that is going to hold up against the question this week as I have no idea about the heights/depths of NFL cities. But before I fret over that anymore there is a very tasty looking Thursday night game to consider.

Gee: Week 9 9-4 Overall 68-66
Dan: Week 9 6-7 Overall 64-70

Panthers @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Carolina Panthers are visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers in a brilliant looking fixture considering that the Panthers are 6-2 and should give a Steelers team in better form a real test. In fact, I’m not sure this line isn’t overly generous to the Steelers given that the Panthers are ranked third by overall DVOA with a top five ranked offence. I’m really looking forward to getting another look at what Norv Turner and Cam Newton have cooked up together without being on the receiving end and I’m backing them to keep it closer than five points even if they are on the road on a Thursday night.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

‘Can’t see anything other than a big Steelers win this week!’

Week Ten Trivia

‘In Week 9 I posed a question about Owners. That this came in the week that Leicester City’s owner left us is a pure coincidence as all of the questions I use were prepared and sequenced prior to the start of the season. It’s strange how these kind of events crop up but the impact that it has had on soccer has been stunning and I wonder how many owners of any sporting team would illicit such an outpouring of genuine adoration tinged with grief?

The question was which owner was the most recent to be inducted to the Hall of Fame. I can report that Gee correctly scored on both counts currently identifying Dallas’ Jerry Jones was honoured in 2017.

This week we have the reverse fixture from week 1 when I asked you which was the Highest stadium of the 31 in the NFL but this time I want to ask about the lowest. As with Mile High being the highest the Saints Superdome at just 3 feet would also be too easy so who is 2nd and what ‘altitude’ are they at? I’ll offer UP TO 2 points for the right answers this week. Is that, I hear you ask, a clue?

It’s a Fair Catch’

Week Ten Picks

12 Sunday Nov 2017

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Saints @ Bills (+2.5)

The New Orleans Saints are on a great run having won six straight games. They have integrated a number of young players into their defence and now look like they could be one of the teams to watch in the NFC. This week they are traveling to face a Bills team who are unbeaten at home in Buffalo. The Bills may have lost against the Jets last week but they have extra rest and are going against a rush defence that is only ranked twenty-eight in the leave by DVOA. I am going back and forth on this one a lot as I like getting points at home and the Saints can’t keep winning all of their games but I can’t quite pick the Bills in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Packers @ Bears (-4.5)

The Green Bay Packers have lost by nine and thirteen points since Aaron Rodgers broke his collar bone and this week they travel to face the Chicago Bears who are coming of their bye week. The Bears’ offence is ranked thirty-first in the league but their defence is pretty stout and should have more than enough to contain a struggling Brett Hundley. I think the Bears should win this one, but giving away four and a half points worries me, in the end I’m going to back the Bears but I don’t feel that confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Bengals @ Titans (-5.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to Tennessee to face the Titans and I do not expect them to win given how the season has gone and the Bengals’ continued offensive problems thanks to a shaky offensive line. The Titans have not exactly been dominant, but they have been grinding out wins. Last week’s matchup was particularly poor for the Bengals but since Bill Lazor become offensive coordinator they have kept most of their other games close or won and so I’m backing them to stay within six points in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Browns @ Lions (-11.5)

The Cleveland Browns may not have any wins, but they have kept half of their games to only three point deficits. This week they face the Detroit Lions on the road who have a tough defence and an offence that ranks twentieth by DVOA despite Matt Stafford playing well. I’m not putting any faith in the every other week pattern that suggests this will be the fifth game the Browns lose by three points, but I do just fancy them to keep this game closer than twelve points. I need to remember my rule that I need a very good reason to back a team giving double digit points and whilst it would not surprise me if the Lions manage to cover this line, I feel like it is more likely they won’t.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Steelers @ Colts (+9.5)

Ranked top ten by DVOA in defence and offence the Pittsburgh Steelers are a fearsome opponent for anybody, let alone a 3-6 Indianapolis Colts team who have given up on having their franchise quarterback play this season. Still, the Steelers don’t always bring their A game on the road against teams they should beat and the Colts have been competitive in the last couple of weeks. I’m not exactly confident with this one but I am going to back the Colts to keep this one within ten points at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Vikings @ Washington (+1.5)

Washington showed some real grit to win last week in Seattle but poor kicking from the Seahawk’s Blair Walsh contributed to their win. This week they host a Minnesota Vikings team coming of a bye who have played well despite a fluid situation at quarterback where Teddy Bridgewater has returned to the active roster as week one starter Sam Bradford was placed on injured reserve thanks to a knee injury that has prevented him from playing another game. Still Case Keenum has done an admirable job of filling in and is the starter for this game. This won’t be an easy game as Washington have kept grinding, but in a battle of ex-Bengals co-ordinators I expect Mike Zimmer and the Vikings to win out.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Jets @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are really struggling this year and this week with Mike Evans suspended and Jameis Winston sat through injury, their offence faces an even bigger challenge in overcoming a defence that is ranked thirtieth in the league by DVOA. The New York Jets are coming of a Thursday night win against the Bills and are worthy favourites in this game. I think Todd Bowles has done an excellent coaching job given the overhaul of the roster in the offseason and I expect the Jets to win out in this one despite only being ranked one place better by overall DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Chargers @ Jaguars (-4.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have the number one ranked defence in the league by DVOA and get to pit their rushing attack against the visiting LA Chargers twenty-sixth ranked rush defence. They will welcome the return of rookie running back Leonard Fournette and will be hoping he has a point to prove having been sat last week for discipline reasons. The Chargers’ three wins have all come against teams who currently have losing records and it feels like they could struggle against the Jaguars who will be hoping to establish some consistency having now won two in a row. The points line worries me but I like the matchup and so I am going to pick the Jaguars to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Texans @ Rams (-11.5)

The LA Rams are one of the surprise teams of the season and come into this game have scored fifty against the Giants last week. In fact the Rams have three thirty point plus margin wins and welcome a Houston Texans team who have hope for next season but are pretty much done for this year thanks to injury. The Rams are ranked as the best team in the league by DVOA and are impressive enough that I am going to pick them to cover this line at home, which is probably a massive jink so sorry to any fans of the Rams that are reading this.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Cowboys @ Falcons (-2.5)

The Atlanta Falcons welcome the Dallas Cowboys who are about to find out what life is like without Ezekiel Elliott as he finally starts his six game suspension. However, Dallas still look pretty strong whilst the Falcons have struggled this year and with the Falcons defence only ranked twenty-ninth I fancy the Cowboys to cover this if not win despite missing their start running back.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Giants @ 49ers (+0.5)

This pick’em game is difficult to call with the 1-7 New York Giants coming of a heavy loss to the LA Rams travelling across country to play the 0-9 San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have picked up a lot of injuries in the last two weeks but the Giants don’t exactly inspire confidence. I’m going to pick the 49ers as the home team who will be desperate to get a win but this is definitely a game to stay away from picking if you can.

Gee’s Pick:          49rtd
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Patriots @ Broncos (+7.5)

The Denver Broncos gave up fifty points last week and look to be in real trouble. They have struggled to move the ball and have lost by at least ten points in the last four games. Denver has been historically a difficult place to play and Brow Osweiler has actually beaten the New England Patriots before, but even with a thirty-first ranked defence by DVOA the Patriots are 6-2 and seem to be rounding into form. I’m a little hesitant to predict this, but looking at the trends in scores I’m going to nervously back the Patriots to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Dolphins @ Panthers (-9.5)

The Miami Dolphins are ranked thirty-first by DVOA and have had their offence shut-out twice this year but have still managed to get to 4-4 and narrowly lost against the Raiders last week. The problem is this week they travel to face a Carolina Panthers team who have reverted to running Cam Newton and so may have found a formula to stabilise their offence. Certainly it will be hard for the Dolphins to move the ball on the Panthers defence and I would be surprised if they won the game. However, there were some good things in last week’s loss and I’m not so confident in the Panthers that I can predict them to win by ten points.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Halfway Through the Season

09 Thursday Nov 2017

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So this could be a giant mistake, but with week nine in the books all teams will have played half of their fixtures and so here is a single sentence round up of the season so far for each team:

Arizona Cardinals

Long term injuries have derailed the Cardinals’ offence so their season now rests on how far a thirty-two year old running back can carry them.

Atlanta Falcons

We’re not sure how much is Super Bowl hangover and how much is the new offensive coordinator but the Falcons are struggling and need to turn it round soon if they are to get back to the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have one of the largest injury lists in the league, but the real issue is the offence and how badly Joe Flacco is underperforming compared to his contract.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are performing much better than I expected thanks to Sean McDernott and his coaching staff, but with two games against the Patriots and a trip to Kansas City to face the Chiefs the Bills face a tough road if they want to make the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers defence seems to take care of itself, particularly when Luke Kuechly is on the field, but the offence has not been consistent and needs to solidify if they want to make the most of a good 6-3 start.

Chicago Bears

The Bears have wedded themselves to a tough defence and running game, which was enough to get them three wins but it feels like something has to change for the Bears to break into the playoff hunt next season.

Cincinnati Bengals

It feels like the end of an era in Cincinnati where a team hamstrung by its offensive line has fallen back rather than recovered from last season’s down year.

Cleveland Browns

The hope of the offseason has dimmed as things have keep going wrong for the Browns but with the front office and coaching staff both having problems and not in lock step it feels like the promising approach is stalling and the question is will the owner lose faith with GM, head coach, or both.

Dallas Cowboys

All the headlines belong to Ezekiel Elliott but for me perhaps the most impressive thing is the way the Cowboys defence is playing and the job Rod Marinelli is doing as defensive coordinator.

Denver Broncos

The defence still has the talent but problematic quarterback play behind an offensive line that still doesn’t inspire confidence seems to have doomed the season and leaves some real questions for John Elway to answer.

Detroit Lions

The Lions were never going to be able to replicate the number of close, come from behind wins they had last season but with a good run in the second half they could be fighting for a wildcard spot.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers’ season looks to have fallen apart when Aaron Rodgers went down, which seems to have demonstrated precisely how good the rest of the roster is and what a difference an elite level quarterback can make.

Houston Texans

The Texans have endured many key injuries this year but as sad as everyone was when Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in practise, it looks like the Texans finally have their quarterback of the future and how scary could this team be next year with a bit of injury luck.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have made the right decision in sitting Andrew Luck but the people questioning Luck’s toughness should think about what their talented quarterback has fought through in the last couple of years, and then be quiet.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars play defence, run the ball, and it’s working for them.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs’ offence continues to roll despite teams working out that zone defence does slow them down, but the problem is the defence and how much it is beginning to miss Eric Berry.

LA Chargers

The Chargers are lurking after a bad start and will be hoping to turn things round in the second half of the season but it must be miserable playing in such a small stadium that is still full of opposition fans.

LA Rams

What a difference a year makes with Sean McVay surely in contention for coach of the year the Rams have established themselves as serious contenders and look destined for the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins

A topsy-turvy season that has seen two offensive shut-outs, a star running back trade, and a lot of travel, but we’re waiting to see if Adam Gase can pull things together in the second half.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings keep rolling despite the turmoil at quarterback thanks to a really good defence, and a head coach who I never wanted to leave the Bengals.

New England Patriots

The Patriots somehow lead their division despite a defence which has been rooted round the bottom of the league by DVOA as apparently the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady really can overcome nearly anything.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have finally managed to turn their defence round and in doing so look very competitive, and with Drew Brees they could cause real problems in the playoffs as long as they’re not bitten by the injury bug. Fingers crossed.

New York Giants

The Giants look to be falling apart around Ben McAdoo with the end of Eli Manning’s career looming and you have to think there will be changes in the offseason.

New York Jets

The Jets are playing so much better than anyone expected and this is largely thanks to a great coaching job by Todd Bowles, although this may hurt their chances of securing a quarterback for the future if they were planning to do this in the draft.

Oakland Raiders

I am bemused by the Raiders who seem to struggle except when I watch them play and so I don’t know if their offence is good enough to overcome a defence that is currently ranked last by DVOA.

Philadelphia Eagles

The class of the league so far go into their bye week with an 8-1 record and talk of second year quarterback Carson Wentz being a contender for MVP – what more could you want?

Pittsburgh Steelers

There may be questions over Ben Roethlisberger’s form, but with Le’Veon Bell and a strong defence the Steelers are running away with the AFC North and look to be one of the contenders in the AFC.

San Francisco 49ers

We always knew this was going to be a big project but the other winless team in the NFL are worse than I was expecting and fans will be anxious to see if Jimmy Garoppolo is their quarterback of the future.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are still a tough out and I wouldn’t write them off despite their defence sliding slightly but surely at some point they have to do something about their offensive line?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs season has crumbled with Jameis Winston sitting through injury and a defence that is ranked thirtieth by DVOA, it is hard to see anything other than some big changes next offseason given the expectations coming into the season.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans keep grinding despite Marcus Mariota being hindered by injury, and he is a different quarterback when his mobility is limited, but they are still in the hunt for the playoffs.

Washington

With the divisional losses they already have I think the playoffs are out of reach but this team has been playing hard despite the injuries, I just wonder what the long term plan is having lost both starting receivers last offseason and with Kirk Cousins likely on his way next year.

Gee:      Week 9   8-5                       Overall   74-59
Dan:       Week 9   8-5                       Overall   70-63

Seahawks @ Cardinals (+6.5)

The Seattle Seahawks are still a very up and down team and so whilst they should beat the Arizona Cardinals, this is a lot of points to give up to a home team on a Thursday night. I don’t know how long Adrian Peterson can sustain the kind of workload he was given last week, or if three days of recovery will be enough, but I still fancy the Cardinals to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Week Ten Picks

13 Sunday Nov 2016

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A strange week all round, but here are our week ten picks.

Gee:      Week 9   8-5                       Overall   61-72
Dan:       Week 9   7-6                       Overall   56-77

Falcons @ Eagles (-0.5)

The Eagles started strongly, but they have fallen back in recent weeks and face a tough test in this game as the Falcons come to Philadelphia with their league leading offence. The Eagles stand atop of the overall DVOA rankings thanks to a big win against the Steelers and some close losses, but whilst their offence continues to struggle I think they will find it hard to keep up with the Falcons in this one, even if Wentz did lead a comeback against the Giants last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bears @ Buccaneers (+0.5)

I like the Bears in this game as their defence seems to be coming together in the front seven, and the Buccaneeers are really struggling. It worries me that the Bucs have lost their four home games this season as you can’t see this team losing all their home games having won three on the road, but things do not seem to be coming together, and Jameis Winston doesn’t seem to have taken the step forward that I though he had after their first game. Partly this could be to do with the lack of running game on their offence, but I see them losing this one despite the Bears own problems this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Broncos @ Saints (-1.5)

The real problem for the Broncos would be a combination of their lack of running game and the small cracks that have appeared in their defence. The injury to CJ Anderson seems to have broken the Broncos run game, and whilst Trevor Siemian looked good managing the offence when it was based around the run, he has struggled to carry the team. Meanwhile, on defence the injury to Aqib Talib has hurt their coverage and they struggled to stop the run against the Raiders last week. The Saints offence has looked good all year, and while most teams can run on the 49ers as the Saints did last week, I like the look of both Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower and I struggle to see the Broncos as currently constructed keeping up with the Saints offence at home. I would have not picked this game like this a few weeks ago, but I like the Saints in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Packers @ Titans (+2.5)

This is a rare narrative pick for me, as whilst I could see the Titans doing something at home given how they have played this year, and the Packers undoubtedly have problems, I can’t quite pick the Titans to win. The Packers have shown glimpses of themselves during the season, but have been unable to get things going consistently. However, after last week’s flat performance and all the talk after it, I can’t see them playing that way again.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers are looking much more like themselves over the past couple of weeks, but they are still a 3-5 team welcoming a very good Chiefs team who have a 6-2 record this season. The Chiefs may not be an exciting team to many, but they win a lot of games and I think they are the better team even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Rams @ Jets (-1.5)

The LA Rams are something of a mess, which goes deeper than just their first overall pick quarterback not being ready to play yet, even if that is what most people are talking about. The Jets are not exactly a great team themselves, but as the home team I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Vikings @ Washington (-2.5)

Washington are coming off a bye and look to be shaping up well although they are going to really miss left tackle Trent Williams as he starts his four game ban for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. However, whilst this make me nervous as I have been really impressed with the Washington Line, the Vikings seasons seems to be coming undone as the injuries seem to have it critical mass on offence whilst the defence isn’t quite playing up to the standards it set earlier in the season. Time will tell if new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur can turn things round, but having lost to the Lions last week at home in a game they really should have seen out for a win, I’m not backing them against a rested Washington team playing at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Texans @ Jaguars (+1.5)

This is a straight forward pick as although I don’t like the Texans much due to the problems they are having on offence, they should still have enough to beat a Jaguars team who are having one of the most disappointing seasons in the league.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Dolphins @ Chargers (-3.5)

This should be a really great game as the Dolphins pit their improved offensive line and three game winning streak against a Chargers team who are playing better than their record would suggest. After the horrible run of bad losses at the start of the year, the Chargers defence looks to be coming together and you always have a chance with Philip Rivers at quarterback, plus with the Dolphins travelling all the way to San Diego I am backing the Chargers to win. Sorry Dan.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Cowboys @ Steelers (-2.5)

The Cowboys are a really good team, and I can easily see them winning this game, but I doubt they are going to go through the rest of the season without winning and the Steelers really need this game. Now that Ben Roethlisberger has his first game back under his belt, they really need to get things back on track if they are not going to slip too far behind the Ravens in the AFC North. There is too much talent on the Steelers’ offence to be down for the rest of the season and I think they get back on track this week. Or I could be proved very wrong, but I think this is a good spot for the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

49ers @ Cardinals (-13.5)

This line is huge, but the 49ers run defence is truly abysmal and David Johnson is up there with the best running backs in the game and so I’m placing my faith in him and Bruce Arians’ staff. The Cardinals’ defence is playing really well this year, and I think they have too much for the 49ers although it is nice to see some signs in last week’s game that Colin Kaepernick is getting back to being a good quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Seahawks @ Patriots (-7.5)

This should be a great game, but the Seahawks have played a series of tough games that relied on extensive play by their excellent defence, whilst the Patriots are coming of a bye week. The Seahawks are one of the few teams that can play with the Patriots when they are at their best, but in this particular game with Tom Brady playing so well I see this being the wrong time for the Seahawks to be playing them in New England.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Bengals @ Giants (-2.5)

Oh how this game scares me. The Bengals need to get things back on track fast, and although it was good to see Tyler Eifert back and playing well in London, there is not a lot of room for manoeuvre if the men in stripes want to get back to the playoffs. I still don’t have a handle on the Giants, but with a run of three wins and two passing rushing ends that could trouble an offensive line that has not been good this season, I’m kind of nervously hoping for the best.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Thursday Night Pick

10 Thursday Nov 2016

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A strange week, too much work, and now two people picking the Browns:

Browns @ Ravens (-10.5)

So if last week’s Thursday night road team selection was based on the Falcons being a better team than the Buccaneers, this week’s is due to the Raven’s needing an eleven point in margin to cover this game and their sputtering offence being ranked dead last by DVOA. The Raven’s defence is playing really well, but it is a defence that Hue Jackson is familiar with given his history in the AFC North and having only lost by five points earlier in the season, I’m backing the Browns to keep this one close as well and will be very smug come Friday morning, or kicking myself a lot!

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:         Browns

Bills at Jets and Week 10 Picks

14 Saturday Nov 2015

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It feels slightly strange to be sitting down to write this today, but whilst my thoughts are with the people of Paris, the people of Beirut, the refugees fleeing those who falsely claim these attacks are in the name of Islam, one of the ways we counter the actions of those who perpetrated those acts is by carrying on as normally as we can. They want us to be scared, and feel alien from one another, but whilst I feel heartbroken, I choose to write as normal and so on to football.

I’ll start with a confession, I quite like the single colour kits, although I suspect this will depend on what they come up with for each team going forward. The game was also a good one between two good defences that came down to the end of the fourth quarter.

The Bills offence struggled against the Jets’s blitzes, giving up four sacks as Muhammad Wilkerson frequently got through their line and garnered two sacks. Things could have been even worse but for Tyrod Taylor’s running ability, although there was at least one occasion when he ran out of bounds for a loss when he could have simply thrown the ball away. Still he was able hit enough plays to get a touchdown, as the Bills used screen plays and LeSean McCoy to move the ball. The only really good offensive display from either side was McCoy who repeatedly ran for ten yards as his burst and ability to change direction enabled him to pick a path through a Jets defence that was determined to protect their injured secondary through aggressive play. McCoy finished the game with an impressive one hundred and twelve yards rushing off just nineteen carries as well as catching five balls for forty-seven yards. The defences are what won the day in this game, and the Jets made life very difficult for the Bills, particularly after the Jets finally added to their first quarter field goal with a touchdown that brought the home crowd into the game, and the Bills didn’t score another point in the game.

The Jets struggled on offence as much as the Bills, outgaining them by thirty-eight yards but Ryan Fitzpatrick also threw two interceptions to go with his two touchdowns. They managed to get over one hundred yards rushing, but clearly weren’t confident in their ability to run consistently against the Bills defence as they often passed on first/second down. There were times where Chris Ivory looked like the back who started the season so strong, but he also looked tired at times, and it didn’t help that Stevan Ridley finished the game losing one yard on his three carries. However, as well as the Bills did stifling the Jets offence and getting the two interceptions, they really could have lost this game. Several times the Jets aggressively went for it on fourth down, and one particularly impressive sequence had Fitzpatrick run a quarterback sneak for six yards on third and ten before going for it on fourth down and getting the yards he needed with a pass. Then the Jets defence not only stopped the Bills, but their special teams blocked a punt to get the ball on the Bills own thirteen yard line. However, the Jets couldn’t get the ball in the end zone, with a lofted pass on fourth down floating past Kellen Davis before he could find the ball in the air.

This was really good game to watch if you like defensive battles, but it was really won in the second quarter. Firstly Ryan Fitzpatrick was intercepted when he threw a dangerous ball into bracketed coverage that Brandon Marshall couldn’t hold onto as he tried to catch it coming over the corner, and it popped up into the hands of Corey Graham. The Bill could only get a field goal from the resulting drive, but on the following kick off they forced Devlin Smith to fumble on the return and Duke Williams ran the ball in for a touchdown. After this ten point swing they were able to build enough of a lead to withstand the Jets late rally, but they really could have lost it.

And having failed in the first game, it’s time to move onto the rest of the week’s picks.

Bears @ Rams (-7.5)

The Rams are coming along nicely with a fearsome defence and Todd Gurley giving them something they can focus on to make the offence run. The problem is that Nick Foles has not been that impressive this season, but the addition of Wes Welker to give him help on third down in the slot may well help if he can still play. That said, I’m going to worry about Welker every time he is hit and I just hope he doesn’t get another concussion. However, despite all their progress, I’m not sure they should be giving this many points to a Bears team who have been within three points of every team they have played since they were shut out in week three. The defence seems to be coming together, whilst Jay Cutler is throwing fewer interceptions and seems to have something going with offensive coordinator Adam Gase. I don’t think they will win this game, but it will be closer that eight points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Browns @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Steelers’ defence is going to have to keep playing as well as they have to keep the team in playoff contention. It’s hard to believe that Roethlisberger managed to only come away with a foot sprain from last week’s game as his foot really looked like it could have been badly hurt. They have so far managed to keep themselves in touch of the playoff race, and the Browns are not the worst team to be facing. Their run defence has not been good, and you could see a healthy dose of DeAngelo Williams in this one. I don’t see the Browns having enough offence to compete in this game, so I’m backing the Steelers to beat this spread.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Cowboys @ Buccanneers (-1.5)

The Cowboys go into Tampa with a six game losing streak, and you could say they’re due a win, equally you could say that there isn’t anything to indicate they are going to turn this round. However, Jameis Winston hasn’t thrown an interception in the last four games, and they might stand a chance in this one. I’m not fully sure of my reasoning, but I just have a feeling that the Bucs are going to get the win in this one at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Lions @ Packers (-11.5)

The Packers are coming off two losses, but they are a different team at Lambeau Field than they are on the road and the Lions are just the team for them to get themselves back on track. I don’t know if there will be a reaction from the Lions to the recent spate of firings, but I don’t see them doing anything in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Panthers @ Titans (+4.5)

The Titans are coming off their second win of the season having fired Ken Wisenhunt and handed the team to Mike Mularkey, but the Saints defence definitely lent a hand. However, they were glad to have rookie quarterback Marcus Martiota who has looked like he is going to be a very good quarterback. The problem for them this week is that they are welcoming an unbeaten Panthers team whose defence has been playing really well. Not only that, but whilst the Titan’s defence is ranked in the top ten by DVOA, they are a relatively lowly twenty-third in run defence as they welcome a Panthers team who really run the ball well.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Dolphins @ Eagles (-6.5)

The points do give me a little pause, but the Dolphins are too far off the pace whilst the Eagles are beginning to come together. The Eagles have run for over one hundred and fifty yards in the last four games and the Dolphins are another team with a bad run defence. Equally the Eagles defence has been good all year, and so I think they will have enough in this one. Sorry Dan.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Saints @ Washington (+0.5)

The Saints offence has been good over the last few weeks, but their defence has been horrible. This should give Washington a chance in this game, but I can’t quite bring myself to pick them to win.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Jaguars @ Ravens (-5.5)

I’m really not sure what the Ravens have done to be getting this many points even before they lost Steve Smiths. The Jaguars have been good enough to just lose this season, but Blake Bortles has the receivers to take advantage of the Ravens secondary so whilst I may regret this, I’m backing the Jaguars for a second week in a row.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Vikings @ Raiders (-2.5)

The Raiders have played really well on offence this season, but their defence scares me. However, whilst I said I should not have picked against Mike Zimmer last week, I think I am going to do it again, because whilst the defence looked really good, Amari Cooper has been special and I just think the travelling Vikings may lose out with Bridgewater trying to come back from his concussion last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Chiefs @ Broncos (-6.5)

The Broncos need to get back to running the ball and they may well do that this week, but the Chiefs have the defence to cause them real problems. I’m not sure the Chiefs will win this one, but I think they’ll keep it closer than seven points.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Patriots @ Giants (+7.5)

The Giants have been good on offence, but their defence has been struggling in recent weeks and are likely to be missing Prince Amukamara who has a torn pectoral muscle. The Giants have had success against the Patriots in recent seasons but this defence is not the one that beat them, and I see the Patriots continuing their great run even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-3.5)

The Cardinals are a really good team at home, but I wonder if they have enough to win this one on the road. Their offence has been very good this season, but they’ve had a tendency to turn the ball over with Bruce Arians aggressive approach and I’m not sure that this is going to work for them against the Seahawks in Seattle. Their defence will have more than enough to contain the Seahawks offence, but I think they will struggle overall. This is my pick of this week’s game, and I think the Seahawks will be desperate to win it to keep themselves in the playoff hunt.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Texans @ Bengals (-10.5)

I’m not very comfortable about this pick, but the Texans have really struggled this season so whilst I am taking a leaf out of Dan’s big book of optimism, I don’t have to feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Week 10 Thursday Night Pick

12 Thursday Nov 2015

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I am one team away from completing my mid-season round up, but it appears that the memory stick that those words are on is not in the house. I will get that up tomorrow, but I had better get the picks for tonight’s game up.

I’ll cover how we went last week in the next post as I don’t have the figures to hand although I did stretch my lead on Dan.

Bills @ Jets (-2.5)

I’m looking forward to seeing both defences in this game. The Jets started the season really well, but have seemed to slip a bit so it will be good to see what is going on. The Bill however look to be rushing their four linemen more, but I again am looking forward to see if this is the case for myself.

The offence for the Bills came alive last week with Sammy Watkins showing us what he can do whilst LeSean McCoy finally started to look like himself, and Tyrod Taylor returned from injury. However, both McCoy and Watkins are dealing with injuries. The Jets were actually leapfrogged by the Bills in the DVOA offensive ranking, but they have been just that bit more consistent, and they are at home so I think the Jets keep themselves in contention for a playoff spot with a win.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

NFL Week 10 Picks

06 Thursday Nov 2014

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Considering the quality of games and the excitement surrounding the NFL at the moment, not to mention finally gaining a game on Dan, this is a really bad week to be short on time for writing. I won’t bore you with the details, but I will be trying a different format this week to keep the picks going, trying to hit key points from last week and the season so far without double checking various stats and rankings. Knowing my luck, I’ll do better picking this week.

Gee:     Week 9   7-6               Overall   66-68
Dan:     Week 9   6-7               Overall   69-65

Browns @ Bengals (-6.5)

So the Browns are doing okay this season, not in the way I was expecting but they remain competitive in a division where everyone has a winning record. The Bengals seem to be surviving their slump and turning it around, but the performance of Andy Dalton is still a little worrying. I think the Bengals will win this game, but the points are too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Falcons @ Buccaneers (+0.5)

The Falcons are ravaged by injury, but flew out of the gates to start the Wembley game yet couldn’t hold on against the Lions and lost another one. The Buccaneers covered against the Browns, and did some things themselves, but there seems to be such disarray with this team. I don’t particularly like either one of them, but at least the Falcons have a quality quarterback with some weapons and so in a pick the winner spread, I’m going for the Falcons.

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Chiefs @ Bills (+1.5)

This should be a really good game, which you might have questioned before the start of the season, but both teams are playing well. The Bills have a tremendous defence and Kyle Orton seems to be providing enough stability at quarterback that they remain competitive in the AFC East. The Chiefs are also playing solid football, getting themselves a 5-3 record whilst staying in every game bar the now inexplicable loss to the Titans in week one. I’m really torn on this game, I’m leaning towards the Chiefs as I think they’ve been more consistent, but that could be EJ Manuel’s performance from earlier in the season poisoning my trust in the Bills.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Cowboys @ Jaguars (+7.5)

The Cowboys excellent start of the season seems to be stuttering, and as worrying as the Tony Romo back injury is, I’m also concerned that two weeks in a row their much praised offensive line has struggled to protect their quarterback. The Jaguars are playing pretty well on defence, but are just too short on talent, to win. That said, I have a feeling that the Cowboys will struggle and this will be a close game. Either that or DeMarco Murray is about to get right back on track after finally having his record breaking streak of one hundred yard games to start the season broken.

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Dolphins @ Lions (-2.5)

The Dolphins had one of the performances of the week on Sunday in their 37-0 beating of the Chargers. They have a terrific defence, and they finally seem to be getting the best out of Ryan Tannehill, which has kept them part of the conversation in a competitive AFC East division. The Lions are heading up their division, playing excellent defence but they’re struggling on offence with some key injuries. I’m really torn on this game as well, for some reason I still don’t trust the Dolphins fully, but I’m not sure what I’m getting with the Lions either and I don’t feel I can go against a team that’s just won so convincingly.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Titans @ Ravens (-9.5)

The Ravens were playing so consistently, but have wobbled the last couple of weeks having lost Jimmy Smith, which really seems to have caused problems in their secondary, in fact so much trouble that they have just released two cornerbacks. The Titans on the other hand have been an incredibly non-descript team that seem lacking in talent and the best performance by one of their players on Sunday was the linebacker they just sent to the Patriots. The only thing that is making me think about this game is the spread, but I haven’t seen enough from the Titans’ offence that makes me think that they can exploit these problems and I don’t think it is a coincidence that the Ravens’ last two losses were on the road, I’m betting on them to bounce back. Although not particularly confidently.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

49ers @ Saints (-4.5)

The 49ers are having a troubled season, injured on defence and misfiring on offence, with an o-line whose play has slipped and problems getting the ball in the end zone. They are facing a Saints team who traditionally play well at home, and who have put together two wins in a row as they recover from a rocky start to the season. It appears that Drew Brees has found a rhythm and I think this is the week the Saints finally get themselves a winning record.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Steelers @ Jets (+4.5)

The Steelers have been good for two weeks in a row, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing six touchdowns in each of them. They still have some weaknesses on defence, but James Harrison has started rolling, a couple of weeks after coming out of retirement and was terrifying against the Ravens last week. The Jets seem to be imploding and I do not understand what benefit they are getting from starting Michael Vick over Geno Smith, frankly they would be better finding out for sure if Smith can turn it round and if not, getting the better pick. They’re not getting into the playoffs from their current position.

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Broncos @ Raiders (+11.5)

The Broncos had a horrible game against the Patriots, and the narratives about Manning in the cold and losing to Brady will resurface, but I still think they are the most rounded team in the league and I think they will bounce back in this game. The Raiders finally have a pair of players for their fans to get excited about in the rookies David Carr and Khalil Mack, but haven’t been able to turn any of their close losses into wins. Sadly I don’t think they will be keeping this one close, but I don’t see them going winless all year.

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       Broncos

Rams @ Cardinals (-7.5)

The Cardinals keep rolling with great defence and one of the best coaching jobs done by a staff of any team. The injuries kept piling up, but so do the wins and I don’t think this game will be an exception. The Rams got another win, with their much vaunted front seven looking more like themselves last week as they more than doubled their sack total for the year in one game. However, their offence struggled without Jake Long and I think the Cardinals will be a much sterner test than the struggling 49ers.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Giants @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Seahawks have struggled to live up to their Super Bowl winning play of last year, but have righted the ship in the last couple of weeks against the Panthers and the Raiders. Neither of these have been big wins but I think that could be about to change, the Giants were pretty awful against the Colts last week, and have been struggling for large parts of the season, and Seattle is not the place to put that right.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Bears @ Packers (-7.5)

The Bears are also imploding, but not where I thought they would. The offence has failed to continue the progress from last year, with a lot of the blame surely falling on Jay Cutler who has thrown too many interceptions. The Packers had a wobble to start the season, but since Rodgers told Packers fans to relax, they’ve gone 5-1 and although I was overly bullish about them travelling to New Orleans, I don’t think they are going to have any such problems at home this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Panthers @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Panthers haven’t been able to get both the offence and defence to play well at the same time this season, with Cam Newton’s play being particularly worrying over the last couple of weeks. The Eagles have been a bit up and down this season, particularly as the o-line has had some injuries. They just lost Nick Foles to a broken collar bone and possibly more worryingly they’ve lost linebacker Demeco Ryans for the season. We’ll now get to see how well Mark Sanchez can play for an offensive minded coach, and I’m backing them more than the troubled Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Eagles