Saints @ Bills (+2.5)

The New Orleans Saints are on a great run having won six straight games. They have integrated a number of young players into their defence and now look like they could be one of the teams to watch in the NFC. This week they are traveling to face a Bills team who are unbeaten at home in Buffalo. The Bills may have lost against the Jets last week but they have extra rest and are going against a rush defence that is only ranked twenty-eight in the leave by DVOA. I am going back and forth on this one a lot as I like getting points at home and the Saints can’t keep winning all of their games but I can’t quite pick the Bills in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Packers @ Bears (-4.5)

The Green Bay Packers have lost by nine and thirteen points since Aaron Rodgers broke his collar bone and this week they travel to face the Chicago Bears who are coming of their bye week. The Bears’ offence is ranked thirty-first in the league but their defence is pretty stout and should have more than enough to contain a struggling Brett Hundley. I think the Bears should win this one, but giving away four and a half points worries me, in the end I’m going to back the Bears but I don’t feel that confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Bengals @ Titans (-5.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to Tennessee to face the Titans and I do not expect them to win given how the season has gone and the Bengals’ continued offensive problems thanks to a shaky offensive line. The Titans have not exactly been dominant, but they have been grinding out wins. Last week’s matchup was particularly poor for the Bengals but since Bill Lazor become offensive coordinator they have kept most of their other games close or won and so I’m backing them to stay within six points in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Browns @ Lions (-11.5)

The Cleveland Browns may not have any wins, but they have kept half of their games to only three point deficits. This week they face the Detroit Lions on the road who have a tough defence and an offence that ranks twentieth by DVOA despite Matt Stafford playing well. I’m not putting any faith in the every other week pattern that suggests this will be the fifth game the Browns lose by three points, but I do just fancy them to keep this game closer than twelve points. I need to remember my rule that I need a very good reason to back a team giving double digit points and whilst it would not surprise me if the Lions manage to cover this line, I feel like it is more likely they won’t.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Steelers @ Colts (+9.5)

Ranked top ten by DVOA in defence and offence the Pittsburgh Steelers are a fearsome opponent for anybody, let alone a 3-6 Indianapolis Colts team who have given up on having their franchise quarterback play this season. Still, the Steelers don’t always bring their A game on the road against teams they should beat and the Colts have been competitive in the last couple of weeks. I’m not exactly confident with this one but I am going to back the Colts to keep this one within ten points at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Vikings @ Washington (+1.5)

Washington showed some real grit to win last week in Seattle but poor kicking from the Seahawk’s Blair Walsh contributed to their win. This week they host a Minnesota Vikings team coming of a bye who have played well despite a fluid situation at quarterback where Teddy Bridgewater has returned to the active roster as week one starter Sam Bradford was placed on injured reserve thanks to a knee injury that has prevented him from playing another game. Still Case Keenum has done an admirable job of filling in and is the starter for this game. This won’t be an easy game as Washington have kept grinding, but in a battle of ex-Bengals co-ordinators I expect Mike Zimmer and the Vikings to win out.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Jets @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are really struggling this year and this week with Mike Evans suspended and Jameis Winston sat through injury, their offence faces an even bigger challenge in overcoming a defence that is ranked thirtieth in the league by DVOA. The New York Jets are coming of a Thursday night win against the Bills and are worthy favourites in this game. I think Todd Bowles has done an excellent coaching job given the overhaul of the roster in the offseason and I expect the Jets to win out in this one despite only being ranked one place better by overall DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Chargers @ Jaguars (-4.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have the number one ranked defence in the league by DVOA and get to pit their rushing attack against the visiting LA Chargers twenty-sixth ranked rush defence. They will welcome the return of rookie running back Leonard Fournette and will be hoping he has a point to prove having been sat last week for discipline reasons. The Chargers’ three wins have all come against teams who currently have losing records and it feels like they could struggle against the Jaguars who will be hoping to establish some consistency having now won two in a row. The points line worries me but I like the matchup and so I am going to pick the Jaguars to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Texans @ Rams (-11.5)

The LA Rams are one of the surprise teams of the season and come into this game have scored fifty against the Giants last week. In fact the Rams have three thirty point plus margin wins and welcome a Houston Texans team who have hope for next season but are pretty much done for this year thanks to injury. The Rams are ranked as the best team in the league by DVOA and are impressive enough that I am going to pick them to cover this line at home, which is probably a massive jink so sorry to any fans of the Rams that are reading this.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Cowboys @ Falcons (-2.5)

The Atlanta Falcons welcome the Dallas Cowboys who are about to find out what life is like without Ezekiel Elliott as he finally starts his six game suspension. However, Dallas still look pretty strong whilst the Falcons have struggled this year and with the Falcons defence only ranked twenty-ninth I fancy the Cowboys to cover this if not win despite missing their start running back.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Giants @ 49ers (+0.5)

This pick’em game is difficult to call with the 1-7 New York Giants coming of a heavy loss to the LA Rams travelling across country to play the 0-9 San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have picked up a lot of injuries in the last two weeks but the Giants don’t exactly inspire confidence. I’m going to pick the 49ers as the home team who will be desperate to get a win but this is definitely a game to stay away from picking if you can.

Gee’s Pick:          49rtd
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Patriots @ Broncos (+7.5)

The Denver Broncos gave up fifty points last week and look to be in real trouble. They have struggled to move the ball and have lost by at least ten points in the last four games. Denver has been historically a difficult place to play and Brow Osweiler has actually beaten the New England Patriots before, but even with a thirty-first ranked defence by DVOA the Patriots are 6-2 and seem to be rounding into form. I’m a little hesitant to predict this, but looking at the trends in scores I’m going to nervously back the Patriots to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Dolphins @ Panthers (-9.5)

The Miami Dolphins are ranked thirty-first by DVOA and have had their offence shut-out twice this year but have still managed to get to 4-4 and narrowly lost against the Raiders last week. The problem is this week they travel to face a Carolina Panthers team who have reverted to running Cam Newton and so may have found a formula to stabilise their offence. Certainly it will be hard for the Dolphins to move the ball on the Panthers defence and I would be surprised if they won the game. However, there were some good things in last week’s loss and I’m not so confident in the Panthers that I can predict them to win by ten points.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins