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2020 Week One Picks

13 Sunday Sep 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Well, I didn’t exactly start the picks competition how I wanted to on Thursday, but I don’t feel bad about the process of my pick and I think it is going to take some time to dial in given the absence of pre-season games to work from. We also don’t know how the absence of crowds will affect home field advantage so I might play some hunches a little more at the start of the year, but it is a long season.

I am going to try to break up this picks column in a new way this season to take some of the leg work out of the post and so hopefully get into coaching tape more regularly, assuming that life settles down. The blog still feels weird without trivia because of why I have had to move things round and I think that sense of loss is going to be there for a while, but it will also be nice to get back into something like our normal in-season routine.

At this stage, with no pre-season almost every game is intriguing because we have even less idea of how teams really are so let’s get down to some picks.

Early Games:

My favourite of the early contests to watch is probably the Packers at the Vikings as that is a big divisional game and I want to see how the Vikings re-tooled defence looks and if there is any progression in the Packers offence. The consensus number for this game has the Vikings at -2.5 that might lead you to take the Packers, but I have also seen a projection higher than the -3.5 the Vikings are laying and with them  at home I’m leaning to the Vikings, who have taken on an increased importance to me this season.

The other contests that catch the eye in this time slot are the Seahawks taking on the Falcons in Atlanta as the Falcons will be looking to pick up from their strong end to last season and the Seahawks are always competitive under Pete Carroll. I think everyone will be curious to see how Cam Newton looks as the Patriots host the Dolphins, but given this is a divisional game and the Pats lost more players to Covid-19 sit outs than any other team I think this one will be closer than seven. I could be wrong, but I have a lot of Brian Flores even though this is based on only one season as a head coach.

Finally, the Ravens are heavy favourites hosting the Browns, but with Kevin Stefanski taking over the Browns I think the offence could take a big step forward depending on how pre-season has gone. Certainly Baker Mayfield needs to regain some confidence as a starting QB in his third season, but with some improvement and a healthy Odell Beckham as well as Myles Garrett returning to the defence I like the Browns to keep this game closer than nine points. However, I do think the Ravens are going to be strong contenders this season as they look to not just get back to the play-offs, but win and go deep to better reflect their regular season form.

Other things of interest:

  • How Philip Rivers looks for the Colts and what state the Jaguars are in on the field. They will certainly be watching closely to see if Gardner Minshew is a franchise quarterback.
  • Can Josh Allen take a step forward for the Bills and what effect the addition of Stefon Digs will have on Allen’s passing. I really don’t know what to expect from the Jets, although they are another franchise trying to confirm what they have in their quarterback.
  • How will the Lions look with Matthew Stafford back from injury and will the Lions look more likely to be competitive division. I also wonder how Mitchell Trubisky will look and version of the Bears from the last two seasons will show up.
  • How will the reformed Panthers look as they host a Raiders side looking to get a winning season in Jon Gruden’s third season. More importantly for, can their defence improve on it’s thirty-first ranking by DVOA of the last two season.
  • What will the Washington Football Team look on the field after such a turbulent off-season as they host an Eagles side who will be hoping that they can’t be as injured as last season and that quarterback Carson Wentz not only plays a full season for a second year in a row but has the receivers to let them take the next step.

Seahawks @ Falcons (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Jets @ Bills (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Bears @ Lions (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Browns @ Ravens (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Packers @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Colts @ Jaguars (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Raiders @ Panthers (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Eagles @ Washington (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Late Games:

There are three intriguing games in the late slot, but the pick of them has to be the Buccaneers travelling to the Saints where the Bucs will be hoping that with Tom Brady the offence will be productive and the defence pays to a similar level as they did last season. I think that Brady will help the Bucs take a step forward, but there have been signs of slippage and as good as his skills players look, the Saints have been all in for three seasons already and have one of the deepest rosters in the league. I could be very wrong, and this will definitely be one of the games I watch this week, but like the Saints’ continuity to win out in this one.

Of course, I am excited to see Josh Burrow to take the field, but I am realistic about what I can expect from the Bengals this season and so I’m looking for progress not the play-offs. The Chargers have already lost a huge impact player from their defence in Derwin James and getting this number of points at home I am leaning to the Bengals keeping the game to within four, if not winning the game if everything breaks right for them.

Finally, a divisional game between the Cardinals and 49ers is interesting with DeAndre Hopkins taking the field with Kyler Murray and we shall have to see if in his second year with the Cardinals whether head coach Kliff Kingsbury can lead them to a better record of 5-11. The 49ers will prove a tough test as they should be competitive again this season and I wonder how the offence will look given their injuries at receivers, which is why I have picked the Cardinals to keep the game closer than eight, but I could easily see me getting this one wrong.

Chargers @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Buccaneers @ Saints (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Cardinals @ 49ers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Sunday Night Football:

This could be a spectacular game as the LA Rams open their new stadium to a Cowboys team under their new coach Mike McCarthy. I think this has the potential to be an explosive game, and certainly all eyes will be on if Sean McVay can keep the Rams competitive after the overhaul of their roster and the change in defensive coordinator. I am really curious about how the Cowboys will look under McCarthy, and expect them to do well this season, but I’m getting an extra half point for the Rams at home than the consensus line and I’ve seen a projection of an even closer score so I’m going to grab the points.

Cowboys @ Rams (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Monday Night Football:

Week one finishes with a pair of Monday night football games, but I am not sure how competitive they will be.

The Giants under new head coach Joe Judge are at the beginning of a big rebuild project and whilst I am curious to see how they look, I am looking for progress rather than a spectacular turn around. The Steelers had the third ranked defence by DVOA last season and a fit again Ben Roethlisberger has been getting good reviews in camp. It was an impressive feat for the Steelers to go 8-8 with the combination of Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph at quarterback and I expect the Steelers to be truly competitive this season with Roethlisberger back behind center.

The contest between the Broncos and Titans looks less enticing with Von Miller likely out for the season with his ankle injury. The Broncos’ franchise player is a big loss for the defence, and I can’t help but think that the Broncos will be happy if they can establish Drew Lock as their franchine quarterback. This line looks to have been set before the Miller injury news as the consensus has the Broncos getting three points. I worry about the home field advantage that the Broncos will retain as their stadium is at high altitude and this is particularly likely to be a problem with the lack of pre-season games to help with conditioning. However, the Titans have always be competitive under Mike Vrabel and I like getting points when I think the Titans are the better team and only have to win by a field goal to cover. I might regret this, but then that is my usual refrain making picks.

Steelers @ Giants (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Titans @ Broncos (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Well, that’s it for week one. I have no idea how these picks will go, but I’m excited to see more football and I’m already eyeing up what I’m going to be watching on coaching tape next week.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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AFC and NFC North Preview

03 Thursday Sep 2020

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AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens finished last season with the best regular season record but came up short in the play-offs against a Tennessee Titans team on a roll. This will lead to ongoing conversations about Lamar Jackson’s ability to win play-off games. That question is going to hang around until he does, but Jackson was the 2019 MVP for a reason, namely over three thousand yards of passing and twelve hundred yards on the ground. The Ravens did a great job of building their offence around Jackson and had a top five by DVOA defence to boot. The Ravens are in fact one of the better run franchises in the league so as long as Jackson can stay healthy then it is hard not to see this team competing again this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers went 8-8 last season despite losing veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in week two to an elbow injury. Their defece ranked third in the league by DVOA and their special teams was was top ten but a dead last offence saw them miss out on the play-offs. This is perhaps not surprising given they had no killer Bs left after Big Ben went down with Le’Veon Bell underwhelming for the Jets and Antonio Brown’s erratic and troubling behaviour seeing him barely play for Patriots before being cut for a second time having already failed to make the start of the season with the Raiders. The Steelers are another stable franchise so if Roethlisberger can stay healthy while getting somewhere near his best and the defence manages not to regress too much then they should be in contention come the end of the year. There are no guarantees in the NFL, and the AFC North should be a battle this year but I expect the Steelers to be in contention again as they usually are. That said, out of the thirteen season he has been head coach for the Steelers, Mike Tomlin has only failed to reach the play-offs in five, but that does include the last two seasons. I wouldn’t expect this to lead to problems for Tomlin if there are further struggles this season as the Steelers have been famously patient with their coaches and he did a great job under the circumstances, but it could be one to keep an eye on.

Cleveland Browns

Turmoil seems to follow the Browns ever since their return to the league, but last year was a nightmare. They had play-off ambitions with a talented roster and a new head coach in Freddit Kitches who had established a connection with young quarterback Baker Mayfield in his rookie year. However, things were not right all season. Mayfield regressed in his second season with a falling completion percentage and similar numbers despite starting the full season for the first time. One of his new receiving targets, Odell Beckham was injured all year and so did not look like himself and nothing quite clicked on offence. The defence was hamstrung with Myles Garrett got involved in a fight with Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph, and having hit the quarterback over the head with their own helmet was suspended for the final six games of the season. The Browns come into this season with another new head coach, who almost can’t help being better than Freddie Kitchens and there is still plenty of talent on the roster, but Mayfield needs to take a step as a quarterback and so a lot is resting on how he will run new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s system. I have a feeling that thinkg will be better for the Browns, but in a competitive division I’m not sure if they will be able to push for the play-offs or not.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were truly woeful last year in Zac Taylor’s first season as head coach. Some of that wasn’t his fault as AJ Green was lost to an ankle injury that was picked up at the first training camp practice, which for an NFL 100 event was played on a high school field they should never have been on and soon after that the Bengals’ first round draft pick, left tackle Jonah Williams, was lost to a shoulder injury whilst they were still in camp. In fact, the offensive line was bad all year as the offence struggled so much they had to rip up the approach halfway through to get Joe Mixon going and the defence was bad.  They had the worst record in the league for a reason, but they were within a touchdown in half of their fourteen losses and after several seasons where Andy Dalton could never find the form he showed in the 2015 the Bengals moved on, taking college sensation Joe Burrow with the first pick after his ridiculously good Heisman winning season at LSU where he led the Tigers to the college championship. All the talk is that he’s been learning the playbook during the offseason via zoom and has looked in good in training camp, but who hasn’t looked good in training camp this year? There’s no way to know without seeing him in games, and the offensive line needs to be better for him to operate successfully, but there are still lots of good skill players and if they don’t need a perfect pocket for the quarterback to operate then they stand a solid chance of improving on that side of the ball. The Bengals defence has a re-tooled linebacker group and the team signed some free-agents, but it’s hard to get too excited. I think there is a good chance this team will look better and win some more game, they might even flirt with going .500 but after such a bad season I don’t think you can expect a worst to first type performance with a rookie quarterback, and particularly not in this division. I would love to be proved wrong but I think this should be a season of growth for the Bengals and after last season that will be okay.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

I think this is one of the more intriguing division in football, and last year’s division winners are an interesting case in point. The Packers went 13-3 and got to the Conference Championship game, but were handily beaten by the 49ers and gave up over two-hundred and fifty yards of running in that game. A lot of the talk through the season and on into the off-season was the play of Aaron Rodgers who still threw for over four thousand yards despite what many were calling a down year and his new head coach Matt LaFleur’s focus on running the ball. If there were to be signs of this approach changing, they were not obvious in the Packers offseason. Not only did they not take a receiver again this draft, but they traded up in the first round to select quarterback Jordan Love. It might be that the Packers are taking the view that you should always have a quarterback in development, or that they saw the opportunity to recreate the transition the Packers had from Brett Farve to Rodgers, but it was a significant move. Given the age of Rodgers (36) and the change of both GM and head coach in recent seasons, they could simply be preparing to move on. However, whilst Rodgers is clearly closer to the end of his career than the start, with modern sports medicine and the NFL’s current rules to protect quarterbacks he should still have several productive years yet and has spoken of playing into forties. The Packers might be expected to regress from thirteen wins this season and will be looking to further improve their defence. I suspect they will remain competitive, but I can’t help but feel this will be a team battling to maintain their success rather than taking a step forward.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings won a play-off game against the Saints before losing to the Super Bowl bound 49ers in the divisional round, but this did give quarterback Kirk Cousins his first play-off win of his career. Under head coach Mike Zimmer the Vikings have alternated years in the play-offs with seasons missing out despite being around 8-8, but they had a busy off-season and they would be hoping these transactions will helps them build on last season’s success rather than having a fallow year. However, integrating a draft class of fifteen was always going to be a big task, but doing so with the current practice restriction in place for this season could be a step too far. This is particularly the case for an overhauled secondary that lost three starting corners with over 223 collective career games. I have a lot of faith in coach Zimmer to look after a defence, but it makes me hesitant to be too bullish on them, particularly given the number of offensive coordinators that the Vikings have been through under Zimmer and the fact that they traded away star receiver Stefon Diggs. Going into the season with so many unknows makes it hard to be certain of anything, and given the limited number of games in an NFL season there is a certain amount of randomness built in. I like that Gary Kubiak is the offensive coordinator having consulted last season before Kevin Stefanski left for the Browns, and I think the Vikings will compete for the division but I can easily see things going awry for them in a potentially turmultous season.

Chicago Bears

There is a large amount of anxiety surrounding the Bears, which mainly stems from the quarterback position as Mitchell Trubisky regressed in 2019 after a promising first season in head coach Matt Nagy’s debut as a head coach. I never liked the trade up to pick Trubisky, and that pick looks even worse given that the Bears picked him ahead of both Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. The offence ranked a miserable twenty-fifth by DVOA whilst the defence regressed from first in 2018 by DVOA to eighth in 2019. The defence will likely be good enough, but with Trubisky now having Nick Foles in the quarterback room there is the potential for a quarterback controversy, although it is hard to have a huge amount of faith in either one as Foles has a history of inconsistent play. Special mention should go to Khalil Mack as the fearsome pass rusher he is, but I’m not sure that the fairly traditional for the Bears formula of stout defence and a struggling offence is going to cut it in 2020, and likely wasn’t envisioned when offensive minded coach Nagy was hired. The Bears could surprise me, but I’m not putting any faith in it.

Detroit Lions

The Lions opened last season with a concerning draw to the very inexperienced Arizona Cardinals, dragged themselves to 2-0-1, before falling back to 3-3-1 and failing to win another game. They were not helped by losing quarterback Matthew Stafford halfway through the season, who was playing well and very nearly had two and half thousand yards through eight games. My concern here is that the Lions were a nearly team under Jim Caldwell, but 9-7 was not deemed good enough when the Lions missed out on the playoffs and so Matt Patricia was brought in from the Patriots to get the Lions the play-off success Detroit thirsts so much for. However, Patricia has rebuilt the Lions as a pale re-imagining of the Patriots and has been unable to recreate the Patriot’s defensive formula away from Belichick. The Lions have only managed to win nine games in the last two season and whilst I can see that if everything goes right that the Lions might vault the Bears in this division, I’m not sure if I can see them doing much more. Matthew Stafford has some good skill players around him so it’s not impossible, but given the history in Detroit it could take a monumental effort to turn things around. Equally, the Lions could be due for a change, but for whatever reason, I do not find Patricia inspiring but as I tend to hope for success he could yet prove me wrong.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

TWF Midweek Post: On the Road Edition

20 Wednesday Nov 2019

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So this is a bit of an improvised post as I’m on the road for work, in a hotel but still working so I’m going to try a quick sprint through the usual format from week eleven.

What I Saw

The week started with the Cleveland Browns hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, winning the game and still managing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The Browns won the game convincingly thanks to the four interceptions Mason Rudolph threw, but on the last play of the game a tussle between players escalated when Myles Garrett not only pulled off Rudolph’s helmet, but used it as a weapon and although he hit Rudolph in the head with it – he got lucky in that Rudolph was not seriously hurt. However, Garrett has been suspended for the season, which is totally understandable, and as the best player on the Browns’ defence this could snuff out what small chances they had of making the playoffs

On Sunday we got to see the Cincinnati Bengals travel to the Oakland Raiders and make the game competitive. I said I wouldn’t back the Bengals to keep a game within ten until I saw it, and on Sunday we saw it thanks to a tougher defensive performance. I don’t know if it can be the start of something, but it was nice to watch a game and not know the result in the fourth quarter. As for the Raiders, well they continue to impress and maintain their place in the chasing pack for the playoff. They may not actually make the post-season but they look like they are heading in the right direction with two more wins than they managed in all of last season.

The final game I saw was the final international game of the season when the LA Chargers hosted the Kansas City Chiefs in Mexico City’s Azteca stadium. Obviously it’s a step in the right direction with the game actually getting played this year, although the turf still looked like it was cutting up a little, but it was quite the spectacle in an impressive stadium. However, it was a curious game on the field as the Chiefs never quite took off on offensive and continued to struggle to stop the run, but they were able to generate enough turnovers, including four interceptions of Philip Rivers to overcome being out-gained by over one hundred and twenty yards and win 24-17. It feels like if the Chiefs do make the playoffs, no one will want to face them whilst for the Chargers, the injuries have combined with Philip Rivers suddenly struggling to hold everything together to sink the season. I’m not saying that Rivers is done or that he won’t play well next week, but if feels like his chance of making a Super Bowl is slipping away.

What I Heard

The big stories have been the brawl at the end of the Thursday night game, with no one questioning Garrett’s suspension or the two Steeler linemen who retaliated for the attack on their quarterback.

Next we had the curious situation with the Colin Kaepernick workout, which was unusual because the league announced it, seemingly out of nowhere and giving him a couple of hours to agree or not. Additionally in the strange column was holding it on a Saturday when most big decision makers wouldn’t attend as they would be preparing for Sunday, as opposed to Tuesday – the tradition day for teams to work out potential new signings. The situation continues to get muddled as Kaepernick then refused to sign an NFL waiver that I’ve heard would have prevented him from future legal action as well as any injury responsibility. Kaepernick’s change of plan was to stage his own workout in front of a handful of NFL people and his own camera crew (who the league also would allow to film/publish) – and whist I think I can understand some or most of this, I get the feeling we won’t be seeing him in the league any time soon, if at all. He stuck to his principles but you can already see how some will spin this as being unwilling to put the team ahead of the individual.

Finally, in a rare side step into college football for TWF, the big news for those in the middle of the 2019 NFL Tankapalooza – was that Tua Tagovailoa dislocated his hip this weekend, throwing again into the question of losing games for draft picks. For me the real shame is that Tua did this in college whilst not getting paid a cent, and I hope that he can get healthy again and play up to his potential whoever it may be for.

What I Think

I think that this season is continuing the transition from the quarterback stars we are so familiar with to the new generation. You can’t see Eli Manning holding on for much longer longer if we ever see him again, for the first time Philip Rivers is struggling to keep his team competitive, and even Tom Brady is looking mortal. Meanwhile, after Patrick Mahomes announced himself last season, it is Lamar Jackson’s turn for a tilt at MVP, whilst Deshaun Watson continues to impress with the Texans. This makes the struggles of Mitch Trubisky even tougher for fans of the Bears to watch knowing that their franchise was tricked into trading up to take him when they could have stayed put and picked Watson or Mahomes.

What I Know

That I seem to be talking an awful lot about quarterbacks this season and I’m beginning to worry about myself.

What I Hope

I would hope that next week I could get back to something like a normal week, but of course it’s Thanksgiving, so I hope we get three good games to watch!

Take a Breath Before You Panic

12 Wednesday Sep 2018

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18-09-12 Lions

Image Credit: eu.freep.com

The week one games are in the book and so after this first flurry of games the natural next step is to react and thanks to a combination of modern media and the small number of games ever result is either a triumph or a disaster. So before we continue, remember to take a breath and not to read too much into the result for you team in their first game, unless you need to panic and given that all seven new head coaches lost this week perhaps you might.

Having seen both teams in the pre-season I wasn’t convinced by either the Bills or the Lions but both were on the wrong side of score lines over forty points. I can see how the Bills got themselves into the mess they are in, and they think they have their quarterback of the future so Josh Allen but given the moves they made to get him the young quarterback needs to work out. Poor Nathan Peterman didn’t stand much chance behind the Bills’ reworked offensive line . I’m not going to pretend that I’m a good enough judge of talent to say whether he does or doesn’t belong in the NFL, but he’s had two disastrous starts for the Bills now, and it throws the decision to trade away AJ McCarron into sharp relief as Allen is now starting next week despite not being ready four days ago. The Lions meanwhile managed to lose at home to a rookie quarterback in his first start on the road and this only furthers reinforces the poor impression I got from them in pre-season. It is going to take a number of wins to wipe the memory of that start from the fans who were in attendance.

The reason that they and the other teams who lost in week one might need to panic is that while roughly half of the teams that go 2-0 make the playoffs, only around ten percent of teams who start 0-2 make the playoffs. Now for some being competitive and winning some games (I’m looking at you Browns) would be an improvement in line with expectations as there are plenty of teams who see a return to competitiveness as a marked improvement. The Saints were not expected to lose to the Buccaneers, but if Ryan Fitzpatrick keeps playing like he did in the first game perhaps Jameis Winston won’t walk straight back into the starting role. The defence for the Saints no showed in the home opener against a divisional opponent, which is a real worry for a team that plays decidedly better in their dome so they will be looking to bounce back against the Browns on Sunday.

Now the Cleveland Browns reached peak Browns by avoiding losing their opening game in a tie and failing to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers despite generating six turnovers – plus Myles Garrett looked like a monster. It feels like there’s a lot more talent on this year’s roster but I think everyone is doubting whether the coaching staff can pull it together in Cleveland and stuff like this really doesn’t help.

Another team that will be ruing a missed opportunity is the Chicago Bears who had the Packers on the ropes in the first in Green Bay before Aaron Rodgers pulled off another miracle, firstly by getting back on the field having been carted off and then by leading a comeback from 20-0 down in the third quarter. The Bears will draw a little comfort from the fact that we all know Rodgers is, to quote Robert May, ‘…a f#*@ing dragon!’ but they got conservative in the second half on offence whilst the defence failed to cope when the Packers adjusted and got the ball out of Rodgers’ hands quickly. This was not helped by the lack of pre-season showing up for Khalil Mack who looked unstoppable early in the game but was on a rep count and couldn’t help late. The question for fans of the Bears is does the promise displayed develop as new head coach Matt Nagy gets used to calling plays for the entire game and how to maximise the offence, but that is a question we will only find out the answer to in the coming weeks.

It’s too early to draw too much from the Kansas City Chiefs win over the LA Chargers but they looked very promising on offence. Patrick Mahomes has a ridiculous arm and didn’t throw an interception although the play calling and skills players had a lot to do with the points scored and the LA Chargers would have been a lot closer if players would stop dropping passes from Philip Rivers. The Chargers are still finding ways to lose games and the number of fans at their ‘home’ games is still a worry, the new stadium that the Rams are building and that the Chargers will be sharing once its open could be very empty and dominated by away fans if the situation remains the same.

The Oakland Raiders failed to win and I will be keeping an eye on them, but the signs are not good for this season and the questions about the Mack trade will only get louder if he builds on the promise he showed in the Bears’ opener. Meanwhile Jerry Jones avoided the media after the Dallas Cowboys opening loss to the Carolina Panthers and without a quick improvement on offence.

Now a lot of teams are in a position to turn around their single loss and I certainly wouldn’t panic if I was a fan of say the Steelers (although the display by Ben Roethlisberger was concerning), but there will be fans all over the league who will be that extra bit nervous during the upcoming games and to them I say this, there is a long season up ahead and 0-2 doesn’t necessarily mean your team won’t make the playoff but if your team loses a second game, well at that point you can definitely panic!

The Highs and Lows of Hard Knocks and the Cleveland Browns

26 Sunday Aug 2018

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18-08-26 Hard Knocks Crew

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Episode three of Hard Knocks had some highs on the non-football front but was also a demonstration of some of the limitations of the format. When it is good, the programme gives us an insight into the working of an NFL team but it has now been going long enough that you can spot some of the plotting beats and we’re beginning to get to the point where the sword of Damocles hanging over the players further down the roster begins to interfere with the enjoyment of the show. Fourth string quarterback BROgan Roback is a camp arm and doesn’t get into the game against the Bills and we watch in real time as Nate Orchard loses contain twice on the pass rush and the effect this could have on his family. Even last week’s fringe breakout player Devon Cajuste features with his long catch (accompanied by fan cheers of Juice) and the later pass inference that Todd Haley was as unsure about but we’ll look at it on film.

The episode starts with a training camp ‘fight’, which is just one of those things we know happens at training camp and the interesting thing for me was that it was linebacker Christian Kirksey who was peacemaker talking to Jarvis Landry about how he can’t react or break a hand and that he’ll talk to corner Terrane Mitchell. It was pretty amusing to see the, ‘gang of orange’ quarterbacks gathered round Landry and offering to handle the situation for him.

However, for the football nerd it can be frustrating watching obviously sanitised of football content front office and coaching footage. I understand that they can’t give away a competitive advantage but it was painfully obvious that Hue Jackson and Dez Bryant were aware of being on camera in their sit down meeting. I’m was surprised that John Dorsey didn’t know that the player he was bringing in that day was the answer to the pop quiz question his intern had set. We also got treated to offensive line coach Bob Wylie complaining about stretching and comparing 1940s calisthenics to modern training techniques, which is not the kind of attitude I’d want in my coaches but the glimpse into the offensive line drill that had the linemen using a low structure that was clearly helping the linemen keep their pad level down from the snap was genuinely interesting. I was less interested in the random zoology break down of nature’s offensive linemen that was part of the same segment but between Hard Knocks and All Or Nothing it appears that for all the money spent in the NFL, they have the same problems with quality of presentations as sometimes beset the corporate world.

The things that would worry me more seriously as a Browns fan is that I’m not sure how sustainable across a long season Gregg Williams’ fire and brimstone routine is and frankly, I’d like a bit more instruction on what he wants as well as demonstrations of displeasure. We perhaps should be careful of judging this as we don’t know what has been left on the cutting room floor of NFL films, but the fact that his players were touching the quarterback in training and Carl Nassib (he off the impossible financial returns) was openly mocking the offensive coordinator does make you wonder a little about the discipline.

The good news is that Thursday night’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles continued to show that the Browns could well be better this year as they ran out 5-0 winners. In particular, the defence caused the Eagles problems with the pass rush all night and Myles Garrett looked every inch the first round pass rusher as he got a pair of sacks including one for a safety and caused disruption in the backfield. The offence did enough to win the game but the fourth and goal failure that led to the aforementioned safety was a worry as was Tyrod Taylor having to leave the game with a hand injury, but he was able to come back in later in the game. The quietly effective part of the offensive over the last two games in terms of Hard Knocks coverage to how they look in actual games are the running back duo of Carlos Hyde and rookie Nick Chubb who have been moving the ball effectively and helping balance the team. You get the feeling that tight end David Njoku could cause a lot of teams problems with his athleticism and receiver Rashard Higgins had another catch that caught the eye. The swirl at receiver will be one to watch next week now that Josh Gordon has been cleared to practise and play but it appears Dez Bryant was offended by the contract he was offered, but Dez may need to adjust his expectations if he wants to get back on the field as there does not seem to be a lot of other suitors out there at the moment.

As the season nears the cuts are coming and having had the dress rehearsal game next week’s will be all about the battle to make the roster. That’s when the unmanufactured drama will really take hold.

Learning From Your Mistakes

19 Sunday Aug 2018

Posted by in Pre-Season, Uncategorized

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18-08-19 Baker Mayfield

Image Credit: usatoday.com

You learn by your mistakes and pre-season is one of those odd times for me as I’m trying to focus in on games to follow a team through the pre-season process but without coaching tape you miss a lot for certain positions. Still the benefit of following the Hard Knocks team is that you get another’s perspective on the game to what you saw in the following week’s episode and so on to the Cleveland Browns.

I’m still not sure about the Antonio Calloway saga as you never quite how much is created by the editing as yes he looked like a player carrying a secret in practice and then he gets pulled into a meeting with Hue Jackson and John Dorsey when the news of his police citation breaks. However, it didn’t look like he covered everything the police found in his car, and he was driving with a suspended licence. The coaches approach appears to be make him earn his place back on the team, so after an apology to the team he is made to play every down on offence. There was a clip of Todd Haley challenging Jarvis Landry to take Calloway under his wing as they needed him and it was what Larry Fitzgerald would do. I can’t help feeling that if Calloway was that important, and he did make a huge play for a touchdown, that the front office and coaches would be making a plan themselves to help the young rookie draft pick as a second troubled receiver is not what this franchise really needs.

In other bits from Hard Knocks that I made notes of whilst watching the game but failed to write up in covering last week’s Browns game was the two touchdowns for tight David Njoku who made a nice couple of catches. Also making a couple of good catches was Rashard Higgins. However, I couldn’t know that they were going to focus in on journeyman tight end Devon Cajuste and it was one of those end of game parts that wouldn’t grab you unless you knew the back story and you can’t help but pull for the guy and his family. It is always nice to see the human side of players and following on from our drumming linebacker from week one this week we had Njoku’s meditation and Myles Garrett professing that before he was a man who loved to hit people he was a boy who loved to write.

So onto this week’s game and the Browns hosted the Buffalo Bills in a game they lost but can take things from. The Browns started out the game well with the defence stopping the Bills from moving the ball and establishing the run, which they had struggled with last week. In fact both Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb had multiple good runs and frankly they offence as a whole should have scored more than seven points in the first quarter. The balance of the Browns quarterback room looks really good with Tyrod Taylor being an excellent role model for Baker Mayfield to learn from in terms of how to be a pro but Mayfield continues to impress. For me it is his active feet as much as anything that impresses me as he has good pocket movement and whilst he can scramble it’s the shifting in the pocket and making the throw that makes it look like the Browns might finally have a franchise quarterback if Mayfield develops and the fact that they don’t have to throw him in will help with this development. This is particularly true as the Bills seemed to get a lot of pressure in this game and as the game went on the Browns found it harder to move the ball. In fact once Drew Stanton came into the game in the fourth quarter they basically failed to move the ball despite only being two points behind thanks to a missed extra point.

One of the things that is still troubling for the Browns is the penalties and mistakes the team is making. They had three offensive pass interference penalties in this game with the third by Cajuste wiping out a touchdown, which offsets the nice catch and run he had earlier in the drive that went for twenty-six yards. The defence was not immune either with mistakes in coverage costing them a touchdown when Nick O’Leary was wide open for the second time in the same drive. There were good moments on defence such as when linebacker Mychal Kendricks caught the eye penetrating through the offence line and making a tackle for a loss on a run play or safety Derrick Kindred blitzing from the edge for a sack and they were generally stout, but they will have to watch the line between aggressive and over aggressive if they want to win tight games.

I’m wary of the Hard Knocks effect that makes you think a team is better than it is through familiarisation and rooting for people you know better, but there was a real mixture of good and bad in this game. Still, next week’s third game is the dress rehearsal of pre-season and so is the game that we can take the most from. You can’t really know until the regular season gets going how a team will fare but whilst there are still plenty of questions surrounding the Browns and how the coaching staff is working, I can’t help feel they will be a tougher game this season but all the long suffering Browns want are wins.