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2022 Week Five Picks

09 Sunday Oct 2022

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The Thursday night game was very much one for the die-hard football fan given the quality of both offences on display. Let’s hope the rest of the week five slate of games picks up in quality.

Early Games:

The second London game of the season sees the Packers finally play in the UK as they host the Giants at the Totenham stadium. The Giants have a number of questions at quarterback given the injuries they had last week and so you would expect the Packers to win but given how competitive both these teams have been this season he line seems a little high to me.

Giants @ Packers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

The rest of the early slate sees the biggest ever number of points given to the Steelers and not a whole lot that looks like must watch football.

Steelers @ Bills (-14.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Chargers @ Browns (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Bears @ Vikings (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Lions @ Patriots (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Seahawks @ Saints (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Dolphins @ Jets (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Titans @ Washington (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Texans @ Jaguars (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Late Games:

It’s a curious group of late games as for all their problems, the 49ers just look like a different stratosphere of team than the Panthers. I have to wonder how the Rams struggling offensive line will do against Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ pass rush, whilst the Cardinals have singularly unimpressed and welcome an Eagles team with the sole unbeaten record going into week five.

49ers @ Panthers (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Cowboys @ Rams (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Eagles @ Cardinals (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Sunday Night Football:

Bengals @ Ravens (-3.5)

This looks to be one of the matchups of the weekend, although I’m still not convinced by the Bengals’ offence, The Bengals’ defence however, has been playing great and it should be an interesting matchup against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offence who have also been playing so well this season. The extra half point has me taking the Bengals, although I could actually see the game going either way despite the Bengals sweeping the Ravens last season, but it is worth noting this is the largest disparity in injury score at sicscore.com that I have seen this season.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Monday Night Football

Raiders @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs really should win this one having only had one blip all season while the Raiders have a solitary win, which is perhaps not surprising given how badly the previous regime did with its early picks in the draft. That said, this line is the wrong side of seven and with numbers telling me that this division game has a slight advantage to the Raiders I’ll see if they can keep this one close.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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2021 Week Six Picks

17 Sunday Oct 2021

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Week six started with a game that didn’t look that competitive on paper as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travelled to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles, and when the Bucs went up 28-7 in the third quarter it certainly looked ominous but in the final twenty minutes the Eagles got some stops on defence and scored a couple of touchdowns to ultimately lose by one score 22-28. Part of the reason that happened was because head coach and play caller Nick Siranni suddenly remembered that running back Miles Sanders could actually run the ball. Previous to that the offence had only revolved around Jalen Hurts running and taking deep shots that seemed to be more effective at getting penalty yards than actual passing completions. The Eagles are not a good team right now, and I would question the way they are trying to run their offence, but there are glimmers of something there.

As for the Bucs, they are looked ominously good on offence for three quarters but seemed to bog down for the final quarter, although to the surprise of no Tom Brady was able to close out the game with a clock killing drive. There will be sterner tests of the injured Bucs’ secondary, but the rush defence was excellent and against even a slightly slower quarterback Shaq Barrett would have had multiple sacks. It may be that the injuries sink the Bucs at some point but right now they are still managing to look like Super Bowl champions thanks to the play of their offence.

So with that said about the Thursday night game let’s turn our eyes to the Sunday matchups.

Early Games:

We get our second and last London game of the season this week, but I’m not sure it’s going to be a great contest. The Jaguars are 0-5 for a reason and Urban Myer really hasn’t convinced in the pros so I find it hard to believe that he will outcoach Brian Flores, even if the Dolphins have really struggled so far this season. I’m hoping for Dan that the Dolphins play better and Tua Tagovailoa gets the start and elevates the team even though the betting lines haven’t moved with Jacoby Brissett as the starter. The sad truth is that right now the Dolphins are ranked only one place higher by the DVOA than the Jaguars and are actually ranked three places lower than the league’s other winless team the Detroit Lions. At this point there might have to be questions about how the draft picks of the recent Dolphins regime is working out even if the process of accumulating them was well done. While the Dolphins shouldn’t be in full panic mode yet, this is probably the first time Flores will be dealing with genuine criticism of his tenure so it will be interesting to see how he and his team react in strange surroundings.

As for the six o’clock games, the oldest rivalry in the NFL is being played again as the Packers visit the Bears, but the matchup of this window must be the LA Chargers visiting the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are coming out of a game where they had to work hard to get the overtime win but where Lamar Jackson completed thirty-seven of forty-three passes for four hundred and forty-two yard and four touchdowns. This doesn’t answer all the questions about Jackson in the passing game as the Colts played him in a particular way, but that was likely his best game as a drop back passer. The Chargers have a different defensive philosophy, but a lot of the excitement is based around the continued development of quarterback Justin Herbert in his second season and this meeting of two 4-1 teams looks to be a great contest that has the potential for real fireworks.

Points from the rest:

  • The Packers have well and truly moved past their bad opening week but had to work hard to beat the Bengals last week and it will be interesting to see how they do against the Bears, where Matt Nagy has a 31-22 overall record but generally gets coverage that sounds like he’s doing a lot worse. That is because the Bears are not really that convincing at 3-2 but let’s see what Justin Fields and the offence can do this week.
  • The Bengals had an okay showing last week, but if they want to build on the winning first quarter of the season, they will need to beat a Lions team who have not looked far away from their first win and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions did get that this week.
  • The Colts looked better last week, with Carson Wentz looking as good as he has for a long time, but they need to rediscover their winning habit and whilst hosting the Texans looks like a good opportunity to do that, the number of points they are laying seems excessive and I can’t back them to cover that kind of line when they are 1-4.
  • I’m not sure what to expect from the Giants, as even when things show some promise, injury gets in the way and it’s hard to see them getting one over the Rams, even if it is a long way from LA to the east coast. However, this is a big line and with Daniel Jones cleared to play I’m just wondering if the Rams will cover this one or if they will be happy to just get the win.
  • Washington are simply not anywhere near the team from last season and whilst the Chiefs are struggling on defence, they has so much more offence than the Football Team that even with this high line I am going to back the Chiefs to get back on track.
  • The Panthers have been struggling in recent weeks and placed running back Christian McCaffery on IR yesterday after he suffered a setback earlier in the week, which explains the four point swing from laying one and a half points to getting them if you look at the consensus number so I have to go for the Vikings.

Dolphins @ Jaguars (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Packers @ Bears (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Bengals @ Lions (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Texans @ Colts (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Rams @ Giants (+10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Chiefs @ Washington (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Vikings @ Panthers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Chargers @ Ravens (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Late Games:

The best game of the late sets sees the 3-2 Cleveland Browns hosting the 5-0 Cardinals having lost to the Chargers last week. The Browns have beaten the teams they should have but come up short against Chiefs and Chargers. More worryingly the Brown’s injury list is begging to grow. The Cardinals are top ten in all three phases of the game but are on the road without their head coach after Kliff Kingsbury caught Covid-19. I have numbers that contradict each other, but with the Browns at home with their head coach available I’m going to reluctantly back them even though I really don’t have a feel for what is likely to happen in this one other than what looks to be a really good game.

Points on the Rest:

  • I don’t know how the Raiders will react to the Jon Gruden situation, whether they rally round to win one for themselves or struggle with motivation, although I have heard that Derek Carr has really stepped up this week in his leadership role. The Broncos have struggled the last two weeks and the extra half point makes me nervous so whilst my numbers are saying one thing, I’m going to grab the points and hope.
  • The Patriots struggled last week against the Texans, so even though they are getting four and a half points at home, which is pretty incredible given Belichick’s coaching record, I find it hard to believe the Pats will keep up with the Cowboys given how both teams are playing at the moment. I would stay well away from this one if I had the choice as I don’t fancy picking against Belichick by this many points but as I don’t have that option I’m going to nervously back the Cowboys given the Pats are the twentieth ranked team by DVOA and the Cowboys are the second.

Cardinals @ Browns (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Cowboys @ Patriots (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Sunday Night Football:

Seahawks @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Sunday night game has a completely different feel now that the Seahawks have Russell Wilson out injured and are starting Geno Smith at quarterback. To be fair Smith didn’t exactly look bad when he came into last week’s game, but the Seahawks’ defence is ranked a lowly twenty-fifth right now so it is a lot to ask Smith to come in and maintain the Seahawks current ranking of fifth on offence by DVOA with so little support from the defence. I am not entirely sure I trust the Steelers turnaround on offence after one week, but under the circumstances facing a backup quarterback I’m leaning their way even if I’m not totally convinced.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Monday Night Football

Bills @ Titans (+5.5)

I guess the big question in this game is will the Bills have any kind of let down after the huge win against the Chiefs last week. They are on the road for a second week, this time facing a Tennessee Titans who may have the lead in the AFC South, but who have a 3-2 record and who are ranked twenty-sixth by overall DVOA. The Titans offence has not really clicked this season and the defence continues to struggle, whilst the Bills are the top team by DVOA thanks to the number one ranked defence by DVOA and an offence that is still potent even if Josh Allen’s performance has slipped a little from last year’s amazing efficiency. I feel like with the Bills on the road I could get bitten by this line under the circumstances, but looking at the Titans schedule so far this season I think I still have to back the Bills given the large difference in the DVOA rankings.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

New York Jets @ London Falcons

10 Sunday Oct 2021

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I don’t know if it just because of everything else I’ve been doing but it feels like it’s been a slightly understated build up to the return of the NFL to London. The really odd thing for me is I’ve been talking to Dan about really looking forward to watching these games at the Spurs stadium, as if the ones in 2019 didn’t happen, which I guess is a function of there being no London games in 2020. I am looking forward to finding out what Dan makes of the stadium when he goes next week, but let’s focus in on the early early game that is kicking off our week five Sunday where the Atlanta Falcons adopt London as their temporary home.

Jets @ Falcons (-3.5)

‘Could not be more Falcons if I tried’

So I know which way Dan is going, and I look at the number and the situation and I simply do not agree. That doesn’t mean that I am right, but the Falcons will be without their number one and two receivers in Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. Right now the Falcons rank thirty-second by DVOA, a massive 20.4% behind the Jets even if they are only ranked two places above them. It might be because I saw the Jets win their first game last week, but there were definite glimmers of progress in this young roster, and Zach Wilson made some lovely throws although I think he could get himself into trouble at times as he’s not afraid to trust his arm. Still, I’ve seen nothing from the Falcons that makes me think that they should be giving up more than a field goal in points so I’m going to grab the points and hope not to be disappointed.

Gee’s Pick:     Jets
Dan’s Pick:     Falcons

Dragging Themselves into the Playoff Race

13 Wednesday Nov 2019

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If the season in the NFL has been characterised by a few teams with good records and some with very bad records who are already turning their eyes to next season, then my season covering it has been one of scrambling to get posts out, and occasionally getting coaching tape watched. This week I find myself further behind in my process than I would like to be so let’s see what I can get out this evening.

What I Saw

The first game of week ten saw the Oakland Raiders host the LA Chargers and run out narrow 26-24 winners to get themselves into the playoff hunt despite a five week streak of road games that including them hosting the Bears in London. It was not a spectacular team performance, but Josh Jacobs gained one hundred combined rushing and receiving yards as the rookie running back continues to impress as the centre of Jon Gruden’s offence. I also through that Derek Carr looked sharp and in control of the offence, but with a total of only two-hundred and seventy-eight yards it was the team performance that got the win. The LA Chargers actually out gained the Raiders in total offence and rushed for one hundred and forty-six yards but the Raiders were able to get five sacks as they got pressure all game and picked off Philip Rivers three times with another voided by a holding penalty. That voided interception would have been Eric Harris’s third, but he still got over one hundred return yards and a touchdown from his two picks that counted. The Chargers have been competitive for a lot of their games despite their injuries but at 4-6 they would need a spectacular closing run to make the playoffs and I struggle to see them winning five or six of their remaining games to get to the nine or ten wins they’ll likely need to get to the post season.

On to the Sunday games and I’ll start with the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Baltimore Ravens, which was no contest and there’s really not a lot I can say further about the Bengals. There wasn’t much difference in result for the Bengals, although Joe Mixon got a hundred yards off the back of thirty carries as the offensive game plan was rejigged for rookie quarterback Ryan Finley’s first regular season start, who was not great and threw a couple of interceptions but wasn’t awful. The defence is awful though, but the worst part is that I love the Ravens setup at the moment, Lamar Jackson is a special player to watch and the spin move he pulled off in this game is going to be on many a highlight reel. In fact Jackson has the eleventh most rushing yards in the league as well as being top ten in passer rating so it’s no surprise that he is in the discussion for league MVP. I also want to mention Patrick Ricard who is playing both ways for the Ravens, lining up as a three hundred pound full-back and playing on the defensive line, picking up a couple of solo tackles and a sack in this game. There really a lot about the Ravens that the TWF team are enthused by, I just with they weren’t in the same division as the Bengals!

Speaking of the TWF team, the other Sunday game I watched was Dan’s Miami Dolphins taking on the Indianapolis Colts and recording their second win of the year. It wasn’t a pretty game, and the defences did most of the work, but despite all the roster turnover and being bottom of the DVOA rankings, Brian Flores has made the Dolphins competitive for several weeks and now has two wins. It may not be what they wanted in terms of draft position next year, but I think they have a coach that is going to maximise the influx of talent is coming. As for the Colts, they were also competitive and the roster is still playing well, but the injury to Jacoby Brissett was a quarterback injury too far and they will be hoping that Brissett will be there for the run of three division games that are coming up. They are not out of the playoff hunt, but as the situation muddies in the AFC this is a loss they could come to regret.

Finally, the Monday night game lived up to its top billing as the Seattle Seahawks won in the last seconds of overtime with a field goal separating them for the now beaten San Francisco 49errs. It was a topsy-turvy game where the 49ers looked the better team at the start with their defence halting the Seahawks and the 49ers taking a ten point lead that held up until half-time. However, the Seahawks took a lead in the third quarter that despite getting level multiple times, the 49ers were not able to regain and the worry for the 49ers is that when it really mattered, it was Russell Wilson who got his team into a position to win and got them over the line. It could well be different the next time these teams play, but Jimmy Garoppolo could have thrown a couple more interceptions in the second half if Seahawks defenders were able to hold onto the ball and that is a worry for the 49ers. We get a rematch in week seventeen and I am already looking forward to it!

What I Heard

I don’t have big central point to expand on here, but there’s several snippets that spring to mine. One is that the volatility of the league was on full display, and that’s not an excuse for another poor week picking.

The Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints, which I’m not sure anyone saw coming, although the points should have been tempting in this divisional game where both teams were coming off a bye. The interesting thing from my point of view was the talk of the Falcons pass rush chasing Drew Brees around, which is surprising as the Falcons pass rush has been struggling this season and the Saints offensive line is one of the better units in the league, so I’ll be taking a look at that on coaching tape if the opportunity arises.

What I Think

I am not ruling any team with five wins out of the playoff hunt, but there are a couple of those five win teams who have really pulled themselves back into contention rather than are still hanging on. The Raiders have won two weeks in a row to take second place in the AFC South, but the team who have caught my eye are another AFC North team, and not the Cleveland Browns. The Pittsburgh Steelers started the season 1-4, lost their franchise quarterback, and I was as surprised as anyone when their response was to trade for Minkah Fitzpatrick and not stock up picks and prepare for a high draft pick next year. In stead Fitazpatrick has helped the Steelers defence turn into the third best unit in the league by DVOA, and it is this defence and not asking backup quarterback Mason Rudolph to do too much that has enabled the Steelers to win four straight games and drag themselves back into the playoff hunt. I’m not saying they’ll get there, but the Steelers stand more chance than the Browns and that is thanks to some really impressive coaching by Mike Tomlin and his staff, plus the work done by the Steelers’ front office.

What I Know

I am still enjoying the NFL season despite the woeful performance of the Bengals, and I’m not feeling the grind as Dan and I have in the past back when we were podcasting, but it would be nice if work calmed down a little bit so I could dig in more. Sadly, I suspect that is unlikely and this is going to be the shape of the 2019 season. I shall make the best of it as I can, we are now past the halfway point of the regular season and before we know it the Thanksgiving games will be here and we’ll be staring at the playoff schedule.

What I Hope

I’ve not been able to settle on a singe NFC team to embrace to counteract the Bengals losing, but thanks to covering the league there’s plenty of intrigue and things to watch – but I hope the Bengals get a win at some point. It’s one thing for a season to go wrong and to get the first pick in the draft, controlling the whole might be exciting when we get there, but I wouldn’t wish a winless season on any player yet alone those playing for the team I support.

Separating the Merely Bad from the Truly Awful

06 Wednesday Nov 2019

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With week nine over we have one unbeaten team left, another year of London games completed, and Adam Gase continued to cause the Miami Dolphins problems by being so bad with the New York Jets that they lost to a Dolphins team who are not actually trying to win this year as they reboot their roster. So let’s take a swing through the NFL and what they have coming up.

What I Saw

The Thursday night game was more competitive than I was expecting as the Arizona Cardinals marched down the field in the opening drive and scored a touchdown then late in the game managed to claw their way back into contention but ultimately lost to the visiting San Francisco 49ers. Sadly for the Cardinals, the stretch from the end of the first quarter to early in the fourth allowed the 49ers to build a big enough lead to win. The plus points for the Cardinals were Kyler Murray’s continued improvement, posting a quarterback rating of 130.7 in this game and new acquired Kenyan Drake running for one hundred and ten yards on only fifteen carries as he managed to find creases in the 49ers normally excellent front seven. That said, the pass rush of the 49ers is very impressive and whilst only generated the three sacks, they seemed to be causing problems on most plays with Dee Ford catching the eye opposite rookie Nick Bosa. The 49ers offence was just as impressive with Jimmy Garoppolo posting his own quarterback rating of over 130 as well as four touchdowns and over three hundred yards of passing, all whilst the rushing attack had to use thirty-one carries to get to one hundred and one yards. There are definite signs that Kyler Murray can be productive in the NFL and find his way, but this was always going to be a building year for the Cardinals, whilst after several of their own building years it looks like Kyle Shanahan’s plans are finally coming to fruition as the 49ers remain the team to beat in the NFC, if not the league right now.

The first game played on Sunday was the last of four London games that saw the Houston Texans beings hosted by the Jacksonville Jaguars. I was expecting the Jaguars who are used to the trip to London to perform better than this, but they were never able to get anything going on offence, although it wasn’t until late in the game when Gardner Minshew was trying to make things happen to catch-up that he started turning the ball over repeatedly. It has to be said that the Texans’ offence didn’t look to be running that much better than the Jaguars, but the ability of Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Watson to make spectacular plays was the thing that really separated these two teams and it looks as if the Texans will be competitive to the end of the season, although I’m not sure they are good enough to maximise the all-in moves they have made in managing this roster. It’s not going to hurt them this season, but with all the draft picks they have given away they could have issues going forward. The Jaguars meanwhile, are sliding back in the race for the post-season and the question will be what they do at quarterback now that Nick Foles is near to being healthy, and whether either quarterback can get the team into the playoffs.

The next game I saw was the Minnesota Vikings losing a close game to the Kansas City Chiefs 26-23 at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are know to have a home field advantage and it certainly sounded loud on the TV. This was a close competitive game that I’m sure will be frustrating to Kirk Cousins as he missed a lot of throws and was not at all up to the level of play we had seen in October, although receiver Adam Thielen did have further problems with the hamstring injury he has been dealing with for a number of weeks. That said, the Vikings were held to under one hundred yards rushing at 3.5 yards per carry, which is pretty good for a rush defence that is currently ranked twenty-eighth in league by DVOA. If the plaudits should go anywhere though, it is to Andy Reid, who has kept his team winning despite losing Patrick Mahomes to a dislocated kneecap and starting Matt Moore at quareterback in his stead, and more was coaching high school football a month ago. Moore may only be 1-1 as a starter this season, but he also contributed to a win when he stepped into the game against the Broncos and it gives the Chiefs the luxury of not rushing Mahomes back. They may not look at their best right now, but they could look good come the playoffs, whilst the Vikings also looked competitive, but there will still be questions about Cousins in big games until he wins more of them.

The final game of Sunday was the match-up of the week for most people, and it was certainly a good game but in the end the Baltimore Ravens ran out 37-20 winners as they hosted the now beaten New England Patriots. Ran out is definitely the right turn as the Ravens amassed over two hundred rushing yards where they got up early on the Patriots and never relinquished that lead. The Patriots did steady the ship after going down 17-0 by the start of the second quarter, but even if they slowed the Raven’s rushing attack, they never really contained Lamar Jackson and needed turnovers to get themselves into scoring positions. The Ravens were able to take advantage of the Patriots offensive line to pressure Tom Brady and limit the Patriots’ running game. It is only one loss, and the only one the Patriots have had this season so it would be unwise in the extreme to write off the perennial contenders, but their looks to be less of a gap between the Pats and the other contenders in the league this season. For the Ravens, I see them having no problem beating up on the Bengals defense next week given their problems at the edges of the front seven, and whilst there are tough games against the likes of the 49ers, Texans and Rams, as well as a not easy game in Buffalo in the coming weeks, the Ravens have two more AFC North games and host the Jets so I find it hard to see them not winning the division and the question is whether they can get a bye for the first round of the playoffs.

What I Heard

There are plenty of people who are happy for the Miami Dolphins’ players as they got their first win, but anyone who was surprised by the result had not been paying attention to how the Dolphins had played since putting Ryan Fitzpatrick back in as quarterback. There were some who greeted his signing in the off-season as not being fully aligned with the rebuilding project that was clearly taking place as he might win them too many games, and he has certainly had a positive effect on their offence in recent weeks. However, the real story is that the New York Jets were major players in free-agency and were meant to be kicking on this season and have done anything but. In truth, this is a franchise in a deep funk that has problems in the front office, on the roster, and the coaching staff so it is not surprising that their franchise quarterback looks to be regressing rather than improving this year. The real problem here is that there is no overall plan and the GM who drafted Sam Darnold is no longer there whilst the team have gotten worse since the firing of Todd Bowles. There is plenty of blame to go around and New York is not an easy media market to function in, but you have to wonder who is going to survive this at the end of the season.

I did hear an interesting discussion around the Trent Williams holdout and the reason why Williams is not happy with Washington’s medical staff. His grievance is about a growth he had for a number of years that turned out to be cancerous, and I thought that doctor David Chao did an excellent job of walking you through the medical side of things so if that sounds of interest then I recommend you take a look at this tweet and go from there.

What I Think

I want to take a quick look at a few of the losing teams because despite there being four teams with one win and the winless Bengals, I do think there is a difference between the bad and the truly awful. The first place to start in the separation is the Miami Dolphins, who for years have been suffering in mid-table mediocrity as they were to good to get elite players in the draft but weren’t making the playoffs every year. Losing was the plan this season, not as an aim in of itself, but in rebuilding with young players through next year’s draft and so whilst we don’t know if things will turn around the results this year are not a disaster but a calculated consequence of their method of rebuilding.

The rest of the teams are meant to be competing but there are perhaps extenuating circumstances for some. The results are of course going to be a worry for the Atlanta Falcons, and I don’t know if Dan Quinn is going to keep his job, but there is a lot of talent on this roster, but it is not deep and they have struggled with developing both lines. There is talent and a franchise quarterback so the right person might be able to turn this things around but it will likely require a change of approach by the front office if not new leadership.

The Cincinnati Bengals were pretty much sunk before the season started and my concerns quickly came to fruition. The loss of three starting lineman to injury and or retirement before the season was the precursor to their problems protecting Andy Dalton and I was always concerned about the hire of Jim Turner given his chequered history, but the loss of AJ Green to an ankle injury at the first practice o a high school field that the team should never have practiced on is particularly galling. I can’t help but wonder if a more experienced coach might have stopped the event when he saw the field. The Bengals were once a laughing stock, but Marvin Lewis brought respectability and Mike Brown has invested in the largest coaching staff the Bengals have ever had and renovated the building as they committed to Zac Taylor’s vision. It has done anything but pay off so far, but I’m not sure previous regimes would have turned the offence over to the rookie quarterback who looked promising in training camp to see what they have in him. They could have given more time for Dalton to try to find another team once they decided to bench him, but they probably want Dalton to be a mentor for Ryan Finley and it sure looks like we’ll see him in a different uniform next season.

However, this is where I think the extenuating circumstances end. The Jets as I said earlier were meant to be competing but their dysfunction starts with ownership and how they have approaches solving their problems in recent years and until they find the right GM to establish a culture and commit long term to its implementation they will continue to struggle.

The final team are the Washington no-names, who have an argument to have one of the worst owners in American sports. It’s not like Dan Snyder hasn’t spent money but he has presided over a mess in the front office and I’m not sure what Bruce Allen has achieved as president to earn such loyalty. Snyder bought the team in 1999 and since then Washington have had six winning seasons if you count 2016 8-7-1 and haven’t won a playoff games since 2005. Not only has the on-field performance been bad, but the franchise has gone from being the preeminent part of the Washington sports seen to a team that regularly sees more away fans than home in the stadium.

All of these teams need a lot to go right to turn them round next season, but I really do fear for the Jets and Washington.

I would also like to give a bonus mention to the Cleveland Browns who can’t get out of their own way and I’m not sure the Denver Broncos are truly going to compete until John Elway can find another quarterback.

What I Know

I had a terrible week in the picks competition last week, but what I know is that sometimes you modify your numbers by gut and your right, and sometimes you get led astray but it’s the over-correction in the following week that you have to watch.

If I put as much thought as I do into just picking games, I know that the staffs on these losing teams will be working as hard as they can to improve their team’s situations. There is a lot of work going on behind the scenes, no one is trying to lose and what I hope is that they learn from this situation and improve.

After five years of blogging about the entire league I spend my time wishing success for people – I want things won through skill and clever strategy and for players to be as healthy as they can when they get out.

What I Hope

I really hope that Ryan Finley gives the Bengals a spark and that if the tean are to move on from Andy Dalton, that they can take best player available or even drop back and pick up some extra picks in next year’s draft. After all, as we have had ample proof recently, there really is no such thing as guaranteed franchise quarterback just because they were selected in the first round.

NFL Tankapalooza 2019: Who Wants the Prize?

16 Wednesday Oct 2019

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

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We are already a third of the way through the regular season and each conference has only one unbeaten team left, but the league’s two winless teams reside in the AFC as the Bengals join the Miami Dolphins in NFL Tankapalooza 2019. The difference is that the Dolphins were built with this in mind whilst the Bengals were planning to compete before the roster fell apart, but more of that later. For now, let’s make a start on rounding up NFL week six.

What I Saw

The Thursday night game was a bit of an odd one in week six as the unbeaten New England Patriots neat the New York Giants 34-14 but their offence still does not look in sync. In fact the opening score of the game was caused by the Giants’ punter hitting his own player and the Pats recovering and scoring a touchdown, but that said the Patriots’ offence ranks top ten by DVOA through week six and have we not learnt by now not to question Tom Brady? Even if there is no way he should be performing as well as he is this far past thirty-five, yet alone forty. When you pair this institutional success with the number one ranked defence you can see why people are already talking up another Super Bowl appearance for the Pats. There is still a long way to go though. This can also be said for the Giants who on top of starting a rookie quarterback, had a number of skills players injured and were never really going to compete in this one. It will take time to improve the roster and you can still make an argument that Daniel Jones would have been there at pick seventeen, but the Giants would argue that if Jones is a franchise quarterback there is no price too high to pay. It is too early to tell and somehow they are only one game back in the NFC East and whilst I’m really not expecting them to make a playoff push, they will be looking to play spoiler in the division and develop their young talent.

The first game I watched from Sunday was the second London game that saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers become the second team to host at the new Tottenham Stadium as they lost 37-26 to the Carolina Panthers. The big takeaway from this game was that bad Jameis Winston turned up and gave away the ball seven times. He threw five interceptions, lost two fumbles and had a further two recovered by the team. You know it is going to be a bad day when your first pass is intercepted, and Winston managed to begin a second quarter drive with an interception as well as fumbling two plays in a row in another to make sure the opposition got the ball. It doesn’t matter if you throw for four hundred yards if your touchdown to interception ratios is 1:5 and it feels like we have the answer about one of the can’t miss quarterbacks of the 2015 NFL Draft (spoiler alert, the other features later). The steady play saw the Panthers win out eventually as Kyle Allan continues to keep the team in the race as Cam Newton focuses on getting truly healthy. There is already some talk of there being a controversy when Newton is healthy given the Panthers have done nothing but win since Allen got the start. The other things that struck me about the Panthers in this game was the depth of their defensive line as having put Kawann Short on the injury list they still had Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe to play in the middle. It might be lazy to suggest that McCoy might have had a point to prove against his old team, but two and half sacks with four quarterback hits is a good day and the team finished with seven sacks.

Having seen that the New York Jets had won the first game of the season and with them being one of the few teams I haven’t seen yet I made a point of watching them heap further problems onto the Dallas Cowboys. It was an impressive turn around for Gang Green with Sam Darnold having his first three hundred yard passing day that included several beautifully placed balls and a ninety-two yard touchdown pass. The Jets are not suddenly a playoff team but it just highlights what a difference a starting quarterback can make and we now have eleven games to more fairly judge where they are as a team. The Cowboys however, will be very worried by a result that doesn’t doom their push for the playoffs but certainly doesn’t help. There seems to be less motion pre-snap to my eyes and Ezekiel Elliott is struggling to get going in the run game. This won’t be helped by injuries to both starting tackles, nor receiver Amari Cooper leaving the game early in the first quarter so you can perhaps expect some regression from the offence, but the defence is relatively healthy and currently ranked twenty-fifth by DVOA. I can’t pretend to have a huge amount of faith in Jason Garrett to turn things around but to do so the Cowboys need to get back to the formula that was working in the first three games,. Whether they can depends on health and coaching, but one to watch in the coming weeks.

The final game I watched this week is the latest loss for the Cincinnati Bengals who started the game with a kick-off return touchdown that sadly represented 41% of the Bengals total points as they lost 23-17 on the road to the Baltimore Ravens. I’m not sure how much this tells us about the Ravens given how the Bengals’ offensive spluttered and how Lamar Jackson is the perfect running quarterback to exploit the issues the Bengals have at the edge of their defence. This season is a lost cause for the Bengals and there are some worrying injuries to the Ravens secondary, which could be a problem for a defence that uncharacteristically languishes in the twenties by DVOA but the Ravens have a two game lead in the AFC North so remain the team to beat in the division.

I have a little addition for this week courtesy of Fran Duffy, an Eagles media employee who does several really good podcasts and watches a lot of film – there was really good breakdown of quarters coverage during this week’s Eagle Eye in the Sky Podcast and a breakdown of the play on this video.

What I Heard

I’ve already mentioned the big news of the weekend in terms of the Jets, but at the other end of the quarterback performance spectrum Jared Goff threw for only seventy-eight yards in the Rams loss to the 49ers. The Rams have reacted to the problems they are having on defence by trading away two first round picks to the Jaguars for Jalen Ramsey, who should certainly help their secondary. However, the problem with that is the combination of offensive line play and the injury restriction of Todd Gurley is hampering their offensive. This is compounded by the contracts they have given both Gurley and Goff when neither of them are carrying the offence right now. I understand going for it when you have a quarterback on a rookie deal but with the likes of Aarond Donald, Gurley and Goff all having big contracts this could become a real problem, particularly as Gurley’s knee is not going to improve massively given that he is suffering from an arthritic condition. The Rams could really miss those draft picks in the coming seasons.

The other quarterback I should mention is the other 2015 quarterback that will always be paired with Jameis Winston, namely Marcus Mariota who was pulled for Ryan Tannehill on Sunday and who has lost his starting position for this week’s games. This is a timely reminder that high drafted quarterbacks don’t always work out and a quarterback needs a lot of infrastructure around them to succeed. I think you can rebuild a team through a roster reset, but I don’t know it is a sure thing and whilst I like accumulating draft talent through getting more picks – if I was a Dolphins fan I would be worried about the talent that has left and whether one of those high draft picks is definitely going to be a franchise quarterback.

The other big topic of conversation has been the standard of officiating with the end of the Monday night game coming in for particular condemnation, but there was also a flurry of flags towards the end of the Jets and Cowboys. It’s too easy to rip the refs, particularly as football is very complex game to referee and the speed of the game has only got faster but there have been some pretty bad non-calls or ticky-tacky pass interference decisions. That said, it’s not the small calls that really annoy but the egregious ones and it seems pretty clear from the success rate of coach challenges that only those kind of pass interference calls are going to get overturned so can we get a memo to all head coaches to stop throwing the challenge flag unless someone actually got mugged and it was missed.

What I Think

I was glad that Mason Rudolph was able to go straight back to practice and the Bengals have announced today Cordy Glenn has been cleared to practice. These are grown men who are making their own decisions, but as someone who’s had his own issues with head injuries, I really hope they are listening to their doctors and are being duly careful. It seems to be the repeated sub-concussive blows rather than the big hits that cause a lot of the problems, but Glenn has been out for a couple of months now and as a linemen he is exposed to a lot of those sub-concussive blows. The Bengals could really do with a healthy Glenn, but the world could do with a healthy Glenn a lot more.

What I Know

I have really struggled to get to coaching tape this year, and even my re-arranged plan didn’t survive my work week and I have another series of interruptions coming this week. I’m not giving up on getting something done, but hopefully things will calm down in a couple of weeks, but that said I will be down in London to watch the Bengals in week eighth and suddenly we’ll be halfway through the season. Man is it slipping by quickly this year.

What I Hope

There is talk that AJ Green could be coming back soon and it would be really great to see him play live again and for the Bengals to be at least competitive against the Rams. In the meantime I hope that I can stay competitive in the picks competition as it looks like the only football based season win I’m going to get this year.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Back To My Old Self!

06 Tuesday Nov 2018

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

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Firstly, I just want to say thank you to everyone who read my post last week – it was my highest viewed post since I’ve been contributing, but more importantly, it was REALLY cathartic to write.

With that said, I’m back to my old self this week, and luckily for you I’ve watched some football! Although, that’s a fairly loose term for what I saw during the Dolphins/Jets game on Sunday night. It was one of the most boring games I’ve watched for a long time, which was highlighted especially as I fell asleep while watching the game for 10 play clock minutes in the third quarter, and missed absolutely nothing! Seriously… I’ve been back and watched it… nothing happened!

That being said, I can imagine Gee would have found some positives in it. The Defences were both pretty strong, helped along by two particularly poor offences. Jets’ rookie quarterback Sam Darnold looked… well, very much like a Rookie. He seemed a bit off the boil, and very much a different player to the one I watched in the Away fixture in week 2. He definitely wasn’t helped by a Centre with a broken finger who was providing him with dud-snaps all game, but to throw 4 interceptions in one game is pretty unforgivable.

On the Miami Offence, one thing that baffled me a little was Frank Gore out snapping, and out running Kenyan Drake by 20 attempts to just 3! I’m not sure if there’s more to it than meets the eye here, but it’s a strange choice to allow the veteran 35 year old more carries than the up and coming potential future of the team’s Running Game who is just finding his feet in his third season in the league. Osweiler wasn’t great either. He’s said he wants to make it impossible for Adam Gase to put Ryan Tannehill back into the lineup when he returns to fitness, but if he wants to do that, he’s got to try a LOT harder when he has the opportunity – his deep passes over the last few weeks have been woefully poor, and his accuracy even at mid-range isn’t where it needs to be.

But, a win is a win as they say, and next week it’s on to… oh no… Green Bay.

Speaking of the Packers, they visited the Patriots on Sunday night [The clue is the big Gillette in the above photo – Ed.] , in what (barring an increasingly unlikely meeting at the Superbowl) looks like it’ll be the last meeting of the 12’s before Brady hangs up his cleats. It was a good game too and had a bit of everything including a nice trick play with Julian Edelman completing a pass for 37 yards. What is really encouraging is that Josh Gordon seems to be finding his feet in New England and is connecting well with Tom Brady. Especially nice to see given the knowledge of his off-field problems which have hindered much of his career.

Elsewhere, the Rams took their first loss of the season, meaning there are now no unbeaten teams. They’ve done well to get this far though to be fair, and the Saints are looking equally good in recent weeks. We could very easily see this being a pre-cursor to the NFC Championship game in January – you heard it here first people! Oh, and that had a slightly negative impact on my bet too, which means the chart now looks like this…

I don’t think Gee or I have mentioned yet that London will be hosting 4 games next year, between Wembley and the new Tottenham stadium. Good news all round, I think. There’s only 3 teams who are yet to play in London, so I would expect at least 2 of the Packers, Panthers and Texans to make the trip over the pond. Selfishly, I really hope the Dolphins come over again, but assuming there are no teams playing here more than once next year, a quarter of the league will be visiting London, which is great! This year’s games were a really good advert for the league too, and caused a lot of people to catch games who wouldn’t normally… although most people seem just to be talking about the toll that 3 games in 3 weeks had on the Wembley turf!

What’s your favourite game that we’ve seen over here in London? And what’s your usual pre-match routine when you visit Wembley? Get in touch on Twitter, and lets have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan