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2019 Week Five Picks

06 Sunday Oct 2019

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I know that Dan is hurting about our half-point miss after the Seahawks won by a solitary point Thursday that sees me fall to 1-4 for picking Thursday night games, yet 3D (Dan’s Devious Dad) has fallen to 0-5 for Thursday picks but given he’s still kicking us with his trivia them I don’t want to make too much out of it so let’s move onto this week’s trivia before we start picking games.

‘How many rushing yards did DeShaun Foster run in the 2002 regular season?

I’ll allow 50 yards either way and there are 2 points for a correct answer’

Now, this is a real needle in a haystack question, and my first thought is to guess a big number but I can’t claim to be too familiar with DeShaun Foster’s career and so I’m becoming somewhat hesitant to guess big. In the end I’m going with 666 yards to amuse myself and because I’m running an unofficial who can get closer to the answer in my head against Dan who being an offense guys will likely go big.

As for the theme, looking at the answers for the entire year I’m completely lost, I see championships and expansion teams but nothing seems to fit for all of the answers so far. I’ve got nothing this week…

‘This weeks trivia answer could literally be anything – it seems so random. And as a result, I’ve used a Random Number Generator to decide on my answer. I’ll be guessing at 1039

Anyway, as for the theme, I’m going to guess at Franchise Records? I had thought it could possibly be ‘moments captured on channel 4’ from the days before Sky Sports, but this week’s question threw that out of the window!’

Falcons @ Texans (-4.5)

I have no feel for the Atlanta Falcons at all and the Houston Texans seem to be competitive without truly convincing as they have plenty of flaws. In fairness most teams in the NFL have flaws and I do fancy the Texans to win at home but this is too many points for me to lay on them.

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Bills @ Titans (-2.5)

The Buffalo Bills almost get credit for a close loss to the Patriots last week but this is a tough road game, particularly as Josh Allen has been in the concussion protocol this week. They travel to face a Tennessee Titans team who seem to be highly variable and Marcus Mariota could really struggle against a tough Bills’ defence. The Bills look like they could be starting Allen but I’m not convinced that he will have been able to prep as he needs to so I’m reluctantly backing the Titans. A stay away game if that was a choice!

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Bills

Bears @ Raiders (+4.5)

The Oakland Raiders came across the country and then flew over to the UK to take on the Chicago Bears in the Khalil Mack revenge game hosted in London at the new Spurs ground. The Raiders have hung in to get to 2-2 but there is a big difference between these two teams by DVOA and it feels like the team who arrives later in the UK have done better than those who have been here a week so even though this is a lot of points to give away, the Raiders aren’t truly at home and I don’t trust them whilst the Bears defence is scary good.

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Bears

Cardinals @ Bengals (-4.5)

This pick is entirely an emotional hedge, although I also think the number is too high given the Bengals are 0-3 but I’m picking the Cardinals and hoping to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Vikings @ Giants (+4.5)

The Minnesota Vikings are suffering from the kind of disruption you might not expect from a team run by Mike Zimmer, but having watched the Vikings’ offence this week for coaching tape, whilst you can’t absolve Kirk Cousins of everything I do feel like the focus on the run is coming from the head coach and that is what could be driving the Stefon Diggs situation. That said, the for all that the New York Giants have won two games with Daniel Jones as their quarterback, they should have lost against the Buccaneers and Washington is falling apart. This is a lot of points and I could regret this, but I don’t trust the Giants so I’m going to back the Vikings to get back to something like themselves this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Patriots @ Washington (+15.5)

I want nothing to do with this game as the New England Patriots really struggled on offence last week as the Bills had the hoodoo over them, but they didn’t need Brady to win that game. The mess in Washington is systemic and stems from the ownership and front office so I very much expect the Patriots to win, but with the faltering offence of last week will they get the big win? However, Washington lost to the Giants by twenty-one points last week so I kind of have to pick the Patriots even if I don’t want to lay this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:       Patriots
Dan’s Pick:       Washington

Buccaneers @ Saints (-3.5)

This is a sneaky good game as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming of a win against the LA Rams and are 2-2 this season. I haven’t had a great feel for them as I got scared off early, but it does seem like Bruce Arians is getting there with Jameis Winston whilst Todd Bowles has already managed a big improvement to a defence that was bottom of the league by DVOA last season. The question is whether this will be enough to defeat a New Orleans Saints team who are 3-1 despite losing Drew Brees. I like the Saints in this one, but given the matchup of an improve Buccaneers defence against a Teddy Bridgewater led offence the extra half point to the Saints has spooked me. I could be massively overthinking this one but I’m playing a hunch in taking the points.

Gee’s Pick:       Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Jets @ Eagles (-13.5)

The 0-3 New York Jets come off a bye but will still be without Sam Darnold whose spleen has still not recovered from his mononucleosis and so it is not safe for him to play. That didn’t stop him from taking some reps in practice this week, but it will be Luke Falk who gets the start again. This is all a way of saying that the Jets’ preparation hasn’t been great, whilst the Philadelphia Eagles looked a lot better last week and Carson Wentz is playing well. This is a lot of points, but I really don’t like the Jets and with CJ Mosely still out with injury, the Jets defence hasn’t played well and so I’m going to risk laying another large points total.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Jets

Ravens @ Steelers (+3.5)

This is an intriguing game as the Pittsburgh Steelers got their first win of the season last week, but still are not exactly convincing whilst it would appear that there are some real questions about the Baltimore Ravens’ defence for the first time in a long while. I like the Ravens to win this game but it feels really strange for the Steelers to be getting this many points at home so I am really torn. In the end I’m going to grab the points as after a strong start against two poor teams the Ravens have come back to the pack a bit.

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Jaguars @ Panthers (-3.5)

This is a matchup of backup quarterbacks who have turned round their team’s seasons and one of them is going to get their first loss as a starter this week. I’m not at all sure which way this is going to go, but despite their top five by DVOA defence the extra half point is making me nervous and with the Jaguars seeming to find their feet I’m going to nervously grab the points. I really hate the lines this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

Broncos @ Chargers (-6.5)

The LA Chargers have battled to 2-2 despite the injuries, but basically don’t have a homefield advantage and this week welcome a winless Denver Broncos team who at least got some sacks last week and kept the game close. The Broncos have played a couple of teams close this season, but not on the road and so this leaves me in another quandary. I don’t want to back the Broncos, but this is a lot of points for an injured team I don’t trust, but having lost by picking against them last week with more points I’m going to pick the Chargers. Urgh…

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Packers @ Cowboys (-3.5)

My worry for this game is that the Dallas Cowboys offence seems to be regressing as they work Ezekiel Elliott back into the lineup after his holdout, but the Green Bay Packers offence is not quite clicking either. There is a big difference between these two team by DVOA ranking, but the Cowboys could actually run the ball on a Packers defence that has struggled against the run. In the end I’m going to take the points with Aaron Rodgers, but once again I don’t feel strongly about it.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Colts @ Chiefs (-10.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs are unbeaten for a reason, even if they did have a tough time against the Lions last week, but they welcome an Indianapolis Colts team who will still be missing Darius Leonard and TY Hilton is only questionable. This is a lot of points and the Colts have been competitive, but with their defence’s simple scheme and missing Leonard I think the Colts are vulnerable so whilst I don’t like the points, I’m picking the Chiefs anyway.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Browns @ 49ers (-3.5)

The last game of the week is my final chance to say urgh. The Cleveland Browns got back into the division race with a good win over the Ravens last week and it appears that first year head coach Freddie Kitchens is starting to find his way with this team. This week they travel to face a rested and unbeaten San Francisco 49ers team who have looked good on offence thanks to Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and whose defence is currently ranked second in the league by DVOA. I’m not saying the Browns can’t win this one, but I like the 49ers in this spot and we’ll find out over the next couple of games just how real the 49ers are.

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Five

03 Thursday Oct 2019

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It was another tough week of picking that saw me just about stay above fifty percent but only by the skin of my teeth.

Gee:                 Week 4   6-9                Overall   32-31
Dan:                 Week 4   6-9                Overall   29-34
Dan’s Dad:         Week 4  5-10             Overall   28-35

Rams @ Seahawks (-1.5)

This is the second tasty looking Thursday night game in a row as the faltering LA Rams head up to Seattle to take on the Seahawks who got back on track with a win last week. This is a contest that pits the eleventh and twelfth ranked teams by DVOA against each other and it feels like it will be a close game. The Seahawks defence doesn’t quite look the same this year, but their offence is top ten, and they can at least rely on Russell Wilson even if it does feel they could utilise his skills more. Meanwhile the Rams lost to the Buccaneers last week with their defence giving up fifty-five points and the offence hasn’t looked quite right all year. For all the talk of there not being a snap limit for Todd Gurley, his actual carries and targets are not the same and Jared Goff has looked distinctly underwhelming in recent weeks. I’m not saying it is time to panic, but with the changes in their offensive line it feels like a different Rams team this season and with them on the road in Seattle on a short week that’s enough for me to cautiously pick the Seahawks. Of course, I’m 1-3 for Thursday night picks this season which did lead to this exchange with Dan, so you can’t say I didn’t warn him:

Screenshot_20191003_130330.jpg

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Week  Trivia

‘The Power of 4.
It’s odd how things seem to coalesce around a point and Week 4 became, unfortunately for me, just that.
I’ll gloss over yet another abysmal picks performance which left me 4 off the pace but stoically I recall being that far back before only to recover.

The question I set was:
In how many Super Bowls did the Buffalo Bills appear during the 1990s?

There was only one winner this week and, coincidentally for Week 4, Gee identified that the answer was also 4
I will admit to running an interference play in specifying the date range but I know how these two are prone to overthinking things so a little misdirection can only add a little spice.

Starting with the first Superbowl to be decided by a single point (20:19) in 1990 the Bills not only played in 4 but these were consecutively from 1990 – 1993.
2 points, therefore, to Gee which levels the scores up at 4 each after this week.

The theme question also failed to trouble the umpires although I thought that someone might have spotted the pattern by now.

For Week 5 I’m looking at the Carolina Panthers but I’m resisting asking about the Bromance that developed between them and Leicester City developed in 2016 when City were winning the Premier League. So here goes.
How many rushing yards did DeShaun Foster run in the 2002 regular season?

I’ll allow 50 yards either way and there are 2 points for a correct answer’

2018 Week Five Picks

07 Sunday Oct 2018

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Well despite dropping points to Dan and his dad on Thursday I don’t actually feel bad about my pick, particularly given Adam Vinatieri hit the post with a field goal attempt but I can’t drop too many more as we head into the rest of the week five picks. However, first I have to try to get myself back level with Dan in the trivia question comptition so here’s a reminder of this week’s question set by Dan’s Dad, who will also be offering his thoughts on this week’s games with Dan being on holiday:

‘Which NFL player kicked a 62-yard field goal, the longest of the 2017/8 season?’

Now I feel relatively confident about this questions as if I’m right, the Bengals drafted this kicker last season, placed him on the practice squad so I had to watch him be picked up by the Eagles, kick a sixty yard field goal and win a Super Bowl so I believe that the player is Jake Elliott.

‘I seem to remember us covering this kick on the pod last year, what with me being a kicking aficionado – it was The Mexico game, and the kick was made by Stephen Gotskowski (I googled him, but only to check how to spell his name, I promise!) for the Patriots.’

Falcons @ Steelers (-3.5)

This game is a huge one for both teams who each only have one win and can’t really afford to lose. Neither team are exactly playing much defence although the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defence is ranked significantly better at nineteenth by DVOA as opposed to the thirtieth ranking of the Atlanta Falcons who have lost yet another starter. The Falcons’ offence on the other hand have been playing really well and are ranked top ten whilst the Steelers have not quite jelled so far. This should lead to an exciting game, but does not make it easy to pick as the form book does not offer much help yet with the Falcons on the road and really suffering through injuries I’m leaning Steelers for the win. However, the extra half point is making it a really awkward pick for me but in the end I’m going to back the Steelers against a dome team on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:     Falcons

‘I’ve changed several times on this one so there’s a 50-50 chance I’ve ended in the wrong camp but I think the Falcons have something to prove and even away I’m picking them.

Dan’s Dad Says FALCONS’

Titans @ Bills (+3.5)

I have been impressed with the Tennessee Titans’ ability to grind out wins over the last few weeks and after beating the Eagles in overtime they travel to Buffalo to face a Bills team that crashed back into their bad season last week with a shutout loss to the Packers. With the hope from the Vikings win quickly fading for the Bills I feel like they face a Titans team on the up. I thought that Marcus Mariota looked much better last week and the new offence seems to be showing signs of where Matt LaFleur wants to take them so whilst I could be wrong, I think the Titans will win and cover this.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:     Titans

‘This isn’t sour grapes based on a fluke result in the Twin Cities but I think the Titans form tells me they will more than match the modest spread here.

Dan’s Dad Says TITANS’

Dolphins @ Bengals (-6.5)

So here we are then, the big Wrong Football rivalry game that sees Dan’s Miami Dolphins travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals and the Dolphins will be looking to bounce back from the hammering they took in New England last week. I think the Dolphins are a better team than they showed in that game but I like how the Bengals are playing this year. The loss of Tyler Eifert is big for the offence and the defence desperately needs to improve on third down, although they welcome back Vontaze Burfict this week. I think the Bengals are more likely to win this game than not but this line feels high, and whilst that could be because I’m something of a nervous fan I’m not backing the Bengals to win by seven and will hope to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:     Dolphins

‘Quite a week for Dan to disappear but he would without doubt gone Dolphins. I, however, can be a little more objective and a good score in the ‘for’ column, despite a higher than average against count still puts me in the Cincinnati camp

Dan’s Dad Says BENGALS’

Ravens @ Browns (+2.5)

The Baltimore Ravens passed one test last week when they beat the Steelers but they now face a different divisional test as they travel to face a Cleveland Browns team that you could argue should be 4-0 this season. Certainly they were unlucky last week and in Baker Mayfield they look to have finally found someone who could be the franchise quarterback this reboot version of the Browns has never had. However, the Ravens have really looked good so far this season with an offence that is much improved and a defence that is once again top five in the league by DVOA. I think the Browns will really give the franchise their fans hate for leaving Cleveland a hell of a game, but with the options that Joe Flacco now has to throw to and the not so secret weapon of kicker Justin Tucker I like the Ravens to win by at least a field goal. I could live with being wrong though…

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:     Ravens

‘In the 1st of 5 divisional match ups this week I can’t see the Browns repeating the success against the Jets in Week 2. As that leaves just one team I’m going Baltimore

Dan’s Dad Says RAVENS’

Broncos @ Jets (-0.5)

Both of these teams have lost their last two games but in very different manners as the Denver Broncos really pushed the Chiefs whilst the New York Jets have not looked the same since their week one win over the Lions. The question is can the Broncos win on the road despite the horrid time slot for them and a short week, but given how the Jets have played over recent weeks I have to think the answer to that is more likely than not yes.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:     Broncos

‘Much as I have a lifelong (well since 1972) affinity to Joe Nameth and the Jets I do see the Broncos breaking their 2 game losing streak although this is one which I wouldn’t be surprised sliding the other way.

Dan’s Dad Says BRONCOS’

Packers @ Lions (+1.5)

I really don’t have a good handle on the Detroit Lions as after what looked to be a turn the corner win against the Patriots they followed that up with a loss to the struggling Dallas Cowboys. This week they welcome a Green Bay Packers team who shut out the Bills last week, but who Aaron Rodgers described as, ‘terrible on offense’ in what I’ve seen spun as creative tension between him and head coach Mike McCarthy. The points are really tempting, but I just don’t trust the Lions who haven’t even worked out that rookie Kerryon Johnson should be their primary running back and in my experience it seldom pays to bet against even an injured Aaron Rodgers unless you are very sure of the team he is going against.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Lions

‘Another divisional game I think this one will go the way of the streaks, particularly with a very small spread. It sticks in my throat but I’m going Green Bay.

Dan’s Dad Says PACKERS (spits and considers taking up alcohol again to take the sour taste away)’

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-3.5)

This game includes the matchup of the week in my opinion as we get to see this season’s break out star Patrick Mahomes running Andy Reid’s highflying offence go against the Jacksonville Jaguars vaunted defence (even if they are second in the league by DVOA to the Chicago Bears) in what should be a cracking game. The Chiefs have paired their offence with the league’s now second worst defence so all of their games have been entertaining and certainly at points this season the Jaguars’ offence has demonstrated the capacity to take advantage of this defensive weakness. However, most of whether they will or not falls on the combination of how the Jaguars approach this game and which version of Blake Bortles plays. He does have the capacity to play really well and were this game in Jacksonville I might feel another way but Mahomes and the Chiefs have so far kept finding a way to win and in front of their vociferous fans I’m going to back the Chiefs to do so again.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:     Jaguars

‘I already have the feeling that the free scoring Chiefs could go all the way this season and with home advantage and a low spread it has got to be the Chiefs. I expect the Jags though to make the playoffs and be in the shake up come January.

Dan’s Dad Says CHIEFS’

Giants @ Panthers (-6.5)

The New York Giants lost again last week and in pretty straight forward fashion at home against the Saints. The offseason overhaul of their offence doesn’t look to have worked and this week they travel to face a rested Carolina Panthers team coming off a bye and a 2-1 start. The Panthers’ defence may be an uncharacteristic rank of twenty-fourth by DVOA but their offence is rolling with Norv Turner as their new co-ordinator despite the injury to Greg Osen and I think this should be a relatively straight forward game for them. I have a slight pause about this laying this number of points but I don’t think the Giants have enough going at the moment to cover this line on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Giants

‘Nothing I was measuring really gave me a solid clue here but I think that the Panthers are probably more together so the spread was more a nudge than a clincher

Dan’s Dad Says PANTHERS’

Raiders @ Chargers (-5.5)

This will be another of the strange home games for the LA Chargers where there will be more away fans than home fans and I suspect it will be particularly bad for this game given the Raiders historic ties and popularity within LA. It has been an up and down start to the season for the Chargers, although having to face the Rams and Chiefs in the first four weeks is a pretty tough start. They welcome a Raiders team coming off their first win of the season who have looked better since the week one loss to the Rams. I’m still not convinced about the Raiders long term plans and trading away Khalil Mack, but Marshawn Lynch has somehow managed to maintain his fearsome playing style at thirty-two. I’m not sure the Raiders will win this game but I like them to keep it closer than six points against a Chargers team who frequently don’t seem to be able to get out of their own way despite the excellent play of Philip Rivers.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:     Chargers

‘The 3rd divisional game this week brings together two very closely matched teams and choosing was not easy. Until I saw the spread I was edging towards Raiders but the spread and home field advantage left me ticking the Chargers

Dan’s Dad Says  CHARGERS’

Rams @ Seahawks (+7.5)

The LA Rams are rolling even with multiple injuries at corner, thanks in no small part to their league dominating offence. This week they travel to Seattle to face a Seahawks team who are 2-2 despite playing three games on the road but the Seahawks also had to work hard to beat the Cardinals last week and lost Earl Thomas for the season with a broken leg. Despite having Russell Wilson their offence ranks twenty-seventh in the league by DVOA and it is hard to see them winning this game even with their famous home field advantage. The difficulty in this game is that as it is divisional so you could see it being closer than normal for the Rams but I just don’t think this iteration of the Seahawks will keep up and the Rams stay as aggressive against anyone so whilst the Seattle crowd does make me pause, they also had to watch their team lose by thirty-five points last season in this fixture and I think it will be big differential again. Watch the Seahawks now keep it close!

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:     Rams

‘Yet another divisional game and at last one where I thought it would be easy. Two teams that are on winning streaks but the Rams 4 on the spin and +73 point net for me is why even with a 7 point spread away from home I cant see past them

Dan’s Dad Says RAMS’

Vikings @ Eagles (-3.5)

This is an important game for two teams who have not looked quite right so far this season. This is strange for the Minnesota Vikings as the combination of new offensive coordinator John DeFillippo and quarterback Kirk Cousins looks to be working really well, but only has them a ranking of nineteenth by DVOA and apart from losing to the Rams and drawing with the Packers despite Aaron Rodgers knee injury, they found a way to get beaten convincingly by the Bills. This week they take on a Philadelphia Eagles team who just don’t look right even with the return of Carson Wentz who lost an overtime game to the Titans last week. The vaunted pass rush of last season doesn’t look to be the same although the defence has remained top ten by DVOA but the offence ranks twenty-fourth. I find this a hard game to predict and I thought it was interesting that Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said he could be over coaching the defence so in the end I’m going to grab the extra half point for the road team as I’m really not sure how this one is going to play out.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:     Vikings

‘This would normally be seen as a competitive game and indeed it may well be one but both are unusually on losing streaks. Who has something to prove, well both really but a modest spread and home advantage I think plays to the Eagles. That said against the Rams Mike Tice seemed to have started a turn round – and the time since Thursday night will have given him time to work on things. My fear is that there is a lot to work on and the Vikings’ defence are not the wall they were last term. Sorry to say, it’s the Eagles (but if I’m wrong I will be happy !)

Dan’s Dad Says EAGLES’

Cardinals @ 49ers (-4.5)

The Arizona Cardinals didn’t win last week, but Josh Rosen kept them competitive after Sam Bradford did the same the week before against the Bears. However, they still don’t have a win and this week they travel to face a San Francisco 49ers team who managed to keep the game competitive against the Chargers despite having to start CJ Beathard at quarterback. This looks to be one of the better chances for the Cardinals to get a win this season as there is only a solitary win between both these teams through week four, but it’s hard to see it happening on the road for the Cardinals. That said they have kept their last two games to within four but as this is their second road game of the season I do think the 49ers will win but in the end this is too many points for me to give away with a backup quarterback starting and the list of injuries the 49ers have.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:     Cardinas

‘The last of this week’s divisional games sees 2 teams well in the mire. The Cardinals are not scoring but shipping points which is not a good combination, hence looking for a 1st win of the season. So will that spur them on? Well at home possibly, and with a spread perhaps, but neither is there for them so I’m going for the 49ers

Dan’s Dad Says SF 49ERS’

Cowboys @ Texans (-3.5)

The battle of Texas sees the Cowboys travel from Dallas to Houston to face the Texans in what is kind of an intriguing game. Both teams are coming off wins but the Cowboys have been struggling on offence all season, particularly throwing the ball, and they have lost both of their road games so far. The Texans may have only got their first win last week but Deshaun Watson is beginning to look more like himself and the front seven of the Texans is starting to look strong as the various players who were injured last season start to look like their olds selves. The Cowboys look ill equipped to take advantage of the problems the Texans are having in coverage whilst also missing Sean Lee on defence again. I don’t have a strong feel for this game and I’ll likely watch it this week as I’ve only seen Cowboys’ highlights, but I fancy the Texans to win their second game and so I’ll reluctantly back them to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:     Texans

‘When teams are 2-2 and 1-3 and with similar scoring profiles a lot comes down to gut feel and spread. Both have 1 game winning streaks and the spread is not helping but that along with home field advantage and I’ll go Texans

Dan’s Dad Says TEXANS’

Washington @ Saints (-6.5)

I’m really looking forward to seeing the Monday night game this week as the New Orleans Saints welcome a rested Washington team that has a top ten offence by DVOA and a defence that ranks twelfth. The Saints meanwhile have been rolling on offence but have really struggled on defence, essentially making them the NFC Chiefs but without the unbeaten record. However, the consistency of Drew Brees has to be admired and the offensive production is why the Saints are seen as such heavy favourites in this one. The issue for me is the up down nature of a Washington team that has paired convincing wins against the Cardinals and Packers with a bad home loss to the Colts. Sure the rest will help with them coming of a bye but will they be competitive against a Saints team in a dome? I’m going to suggest that with that week’s rest and going against the twenty-ninth ranked defence in the league that Washington can keep this game to within seven. Whether they will or not is a different matter but that’s why they play the games.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:     Saints

‘On the one hand both teams are on winning streaks, and are better than .500 so far. The Saints have home field and are scoring strongly, but conceding too. Will they win by 7? Possibly thanks to playing at home so I’m picking them this week.

Dan’s Dad Says SAINTS’

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Five

04 Thursday Oct 2018

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So a couple of better weeks picking has seen me overhaul Dan’s dad’s lead at the top of our picks league. However, my trivia game is not as on point as you will see at the bottom of this week’s post. However, I have Dan and his dad’s pick for tonight so let’s look at what could be a tasty Thursday night game.

Gee:     Week 4   11-4              Overall   34-29
Dan:    Week 4   6-9                Overall   29-34

Colts @ Patriots (-10.5)

The Indianapolis Colts record maybe 1-3 but they’ve run three teams close and beaten Washington who themselves are top of the NFC East. I start with this because yes the New England Patriots got back on track with a big win last week, yes they are at home, yes it’s October and yes the Patriots are very good against the spread even when giving away large numbers of points. However, whilst the Colts can’t run the ball at all, their defence is currently ranked tenth by DVOA and Andrew Luck is coming off a game where threw for a career high yardage last week. My default pick for the Thursday night game is take the home team unless there’s a very good reason not and in this case, I think an eleven point win is too many points when the teams are next to each other in the overall DVOA rankings. I could well be gifting a point to Dan and his dad but my evaluation is Colts to keep this within eleven and I’m sticking to it. That doesn’t mean I feel great about it…

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

‘Not only are the Pats at home they have also started to get the formula running. Bill B doesn’t let issues hang around for long and while the Colts have been given a serious boost in the spread I think momentum and home field will bring this one in.

Dan’s Dad Says PATRIOTS’

Week 5 Trivia

‘Last week I asked Who Captain Fear was and which team he supported. I think we got as far as this being a Mascot and Dan managed to bring the ship home.

Dan 2, Gee 1 on aggregate. 

This week is, I hope, straightforward:

Which NFL player kicked a 62-yard field goal, the longest of the 2017/8 season?

Week 5 Picks

08 Sunday Oct 2017

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Bills @ Bengals (-2.5)

The Buffalo Bills have got off to a good start to the season, with impressive wins against the Broncos and Falcons in their last two weeks they stand atop the AFC East. However, they are travelling to face an improving Cincinnati Bengals team whose offence is showing signs of finding its way.

I am looking forward to seeing the Bills play, and their defence has looked good so far this season, but so has the Bengals defence and I think the men in stripes can edge this one out. I hope this isn’t a case of my heart ruling over my head.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Jets @ Browns (-1.5)

The New York Jets are defying everyone’s expectations having won two home games to currently stand 2-2 and travel to face the Cleveland Browns. The Browns will be hoping that rookie pass rusher Myles Garrett can give them a spark as he seeks to make his professional debut in the regular season as he comes back from an ankle problem. However, the Brows have been really struggling and I find it hard to pick them to win against a Jets team who may not be great, but are finding ways to compete.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Panthers @ Lions (-2.5)

Up until  the press conference where Cam Newton started making misogynist comments about a reporter things had been looking up for the Carolina Panthers on offence. The Panthers’ quarterback had driven the ball better and there looked to be more run options worked into the game as Newton continues works back from offseason shoulder surgery. How much Cam will have been distracted by various meetings, and shooting a video apology, I don’t know, but it can’t have helped.

Nor will the defence Newton faces this week, as the Detroit Lions are currently ranked fifth by defensive DVOA as opposed to the struggling Patriots defence that the Panthers faced last week. The Detroit Lions got back to winning ways last week on the road against the Vikings and I fancy them to continue that this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Titans @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The Tennessee Titans travel to face the Miami Dolphins this week, facing a game time decision to on whether to play quarterback Marcus Mariota thanks to a hamstring injury. The Titans are coming off a horrible loss last week, and whilst I don’t think that will be repeated this week, I find it hard to believe this is the trip they need to sort things out. I’m slightly worried about making this pick as the Dolphins have not inspired confidence this year, but with them getting points at their first true home game of the season, I’m picking them to keep to within three.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

49ers @ Colts (-1.5)

This is a really tricky game for me to pick as neither teams gives me a lot to work with. The Indianapolis Colts are celebrating the career of Peyton Manning, but his replacement Andrew Luck has barely practised this season thanks to injury and whilst Jacoby Brissett has demonstrated a lot more that Scott Tolzien, this was not exactly setting a high point in quarterback play. There’s not a lot for the Colts to hang their hat on at the moment, with their only win coming against the winless Browns, but they are facing an equally winless 49ers team.

The San Francisco 49ers have run two teams close in the last two weeks, including an overtime loss to the struggling Cardinals, but it is clear it is going to take time to turn things round. I am not particularly inspired by either team for this game, and so I’m reluctantly backing the Colts to beat the road team coming of an overtime time loss.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Chargers @ Giants (-3.5)

Something has to give with them winless LA Chargers traveling to face the equally winless New York Giants, unless these teams manage to engineer a draw. Still, given that the Chargers seem to specialise in close heart breaking losses, I’m going to reluctantly back them to keep this game closer than four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Cardinals @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Arizona Cardinals follow up their overtime win against the 49ers with a trip to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team who despite the injuries in their defence are currently 3-1. This game pits the Eagles top five by DVOA rushing game against the Cardinals top five rush defence. I would expect the Eagles to win this game, but given that they have only beaten the Chargers and Giants by a combined five points in the last two weeks, this line against the Cardinals is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Jaguars @ Steelers (-8.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers keep finding ways to win despite disruption on and off the field for their offence. This week they face a Jacksonville Jaguars team who seem to be a week on week off proposition so far this season, and by that logic are due a good week. I don’t believe in that kind of pattern, but what I do believe is that the Jaguars’ defence will be a sterner test than the beaten up Ravens defence the Steelers faced last week. I’m not sure if the Jaguars will give themselves a genuine chance to win the game, but I fancy their defence to keep it closer than nine.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Ravens @ Raiders (-3.5)

This game pits a Baltimore Ravens team who is struggling with both offensive and defensive line play thanks to injury, against an Oakland Raiders team who lost their quarterback to a transvers process fracture last week. Whilst Derek Carr is trying to get into the game this weekend, I find it hard to believe that the team will risk him with even a relatively minor fracture in his back.

This is a game where both teams have struggled over the last two weeks, and I’m finding it hard to make a pick as neither side inspires confidence, but with the Ravens struggling against the run since Brandon Williams went down injured I’m going to reluctantly back the Raiders and Marshawn Lynch at home. I have no confidence in this pick at all.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Seahawks @ Rams (-2.5)

This should be a really interesting game. I don’t believe that the LA Rams are the third best team in the NFL as their current overall DVOA ranking would suggest, but they are definitely improved under Sean McVay and perhaps the surprising thing is that their offence is ranked better than their defence. The Seattle Seahawks travel to LA having got a big win against the Colts, but the game was competitive until late in the third quarter. The Seahawk’s defence has not looked quite as solid as their front seven might have suggested, whilst their offensive line has been truly horrible. This could be a game where Aaron Donald runs amok given the offensive line he is going against, but the question is whether I can pick the Rams to beat a good team, but having beaten the Cowboys on the road, I will nervously back them against a Seahawks team who don’t look quite right yet.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Packers @ Cowboys (-1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Rams last week, and this week welcome a Green Bay team that are struggling with injury, but have a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who can keep his team in pretty much any game. The Cowboys rearranged offensive line might have taken a slight step back from their recent excellence, which combined with the lack of explosive passing options has made the Cowboys struggle more than some might have expected. However, the real problem for the Cowboys has been defence, and even with the number of tackle injuries the Packers have had this season, I am backing Rodgers to find a way and so I’m taking the Packers.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Texans (+1.5)

This looks to be a fascinating game with the Houston Texans seemingly having found their quarterback of the future in Deshaun Watson and who are coming off a 57-14 win face the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs. If the Texans can find a consistent offence to match with their strong defence then they will be fearsome, but this week they face a Chiefs team who keep finding a way to win, even if the score line last week flattered them a little. I do like the Chiefs a lot, and whilst I don’t think they will go unbeaten, I do fancy them to run out eventual winners in this one despite the short week, although it would not surprise me the Texans win either.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Vikings @ Bears (+3.5)

The Chicago Bears will be starting Mitch Trubisky after a bad loss to the Packers that saw Mike Glennon throw two horrible interceptions as well as lose two fumbles, although one bad snap bounced of his knee and back to the Packers. However, he will be facing a Minnesota Vikings team with a strong defence and their own problems at quarterback. The status of Sam Bradford seems to be up in the air and couple this with the injury to Dalvin Cook that means the promising rooking running back has been lost for the season, and I’m really not sure what to do in this game. The Bears could have beaten the Falcons and did beat the Steelers, so with them getting three and a half points at home and the Vikings seeming to be somewhat Jekyll and Hyde on offence, I’m really tempted to pick them, I hate making picks with this much in the air so I’m grabbing the points and hoping for the best.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Vikingssa

Week Five Picks

09 Sunday Oct 2016

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Here are our week five picks, and I really hope I can start making my way back to a winning record overall.

Bears @ Colts (-4.5)

The Colts are the first team to waive their right to have a bye after playing in London as they wanted one later in the season and so welcome the Chicago Bears into Indianapolis this week. How they play will be a test that many with an interest in a London franchise will be watching carefully, the problem being that the Colts are not exactly playing well to begin with. The Bears picked up their first win of the season last week, with Brian Hoyer offering stability at quarterback, and I find it hard to believe that the Colts should be giving four and a half points to anyone so I’ll back the Bears to at least cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Patriots @ Browns (+10.5)

The Cleveland Browns look like they have found some skill players on offence, even if they have not managed to convert any of their performances into anything like a win. Everybody is expecting Tom Brady to walk back into the Patriots team and pick up where he left off last season, but with Rob Gronkowski playing limited snaps as a blocking tight end things might not be that straight forward. However, I’m not prepared to pick against them even after last week’s surprising loss to the Bills.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Eagles @ Lions (+2.5)

The Detroit Lions are really missing Ezekiel Ansah and DeAndre Levy on defence, and have dropped three straight games after their opening weekend win. The Eagles are coming off a bye, and I don’t see anything in this game that would make me hesitate in picking the Eagles. That is likely something that should worry the fans in Philadelphia.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Titans @ Dolphins (-3.5)

I am finding this game hard to pick as the Titans have not been playing well, and Marcus Mariota has not looked like he has progressed. However, their defence has been pretty solid and the Dolphins have really been struggling. I can easily see the Titans keeping this close, or the Dolphins using this as a get right game. In the end I think it might be close and that extra half point is leading me to take the Titans, which should be good news for Dan.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Texans @ Vikings (-6.5)

The Texans may sit atop the AFC South with their 3-1 record, but I think that visiting the Vikings in their new stadium is one of the tougher assignments in the NFL at the moment. The Texans are only one game into life without JJ Watt on defence for the season, but my real worry is Brock Osweiler who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season, and still needs time to settle into an offence that has a lot of new receivers. I think it could well come good for Osweiler in the end, but Minnesota is not the place to succeed without an established offence.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Jets @ Steelers (-7.5)

The Jets are really struggling, with Ryan Fitzpatrick really throwing too many interceptions in the last couple of weeks and the injuries racking up at receiver. Their problems in the secondary mean that their defence is ranked twenty-eighth in DVOA despite their fearsome front. The Steelers got back to winning ways last way in a big way, and the shuffling of their offensive line should worry me going into this game, but Ben Roethlisberger is such a tough quarterback to bring down, and with all the options he has in the passing game I see the Steelers having far too much for the Jets to worry them.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Washington @ Ravens (-3.5)

This is a really hard game to call for me as I don’t have strong opinion on either team. For Washington it seems that Kirk Cousins is beginning to find some form, whilst the Ravens are coming off their first loss of the season. With no game decided by more than six points this season, and their last two games won or lost by a margin of two points or less, I am picking based on the Ravens specialising in close games.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Falcons @ Broncos (-6.5)

I am really looking forward to this game as we are going to see one of the hottest offences in the league go up against one of the toughest defences. However, the Falcons defence is almost as bad as their offence is good, and playing on the road in Denver I still fancy the Broncos to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bills @ Rams (-2.5)

The LA Rams stand atop of the NFC West with the Seahawks thanks to a defence that is playing well and an offence that is playing really badly. I don’t have a handle on how they are doing this, but that is fine because the Bills have broken my expectations by firing their offensive coordinator and winning two straight. To say I don’t know what to do in this game is an understatement, but given the gap in overall DVOA and the fact that I have more faith in Tyrod Taylor than Case Keenum I am going to pick the Bills and see how wrong I can be.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bengals @ Cowboys (+0.5)

The worry for me is that Tyler Eifert now has a sore back and so is out of this game, so whilst the Bengals are coming of a Thursday night win and have had a little extra time to prepare, the red zone efficiency is still a big worry. They travel from Cincinnati to face a Cowboys team who don’t have the best home field advantage and have a rookie quarterback who has played very well but not faced a defence of the quality of the Bengals. I am concerned that this is a pick of fandom over reason but I am making it anyway.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Chargers @ Raiders (-4.5)

The Oakland Raiders have managed to get themselves three road wins with an offence that is playing as well as anybody and a defence that has really struggled. There have been a lot of struggles in the secondary and this week they go against one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Luckily for the Raiders, the Chargers have not put Rivers in a position to win often enough and the injuries have piled up again. It is likely the Chargers are going to be competitive again, which makes me hesitant to pick against them but I feel like the Raiders are heading in the right direction whilst I worry about how the Chargers are constructed and where they are headed.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Giants @ Packers (-7.5)

All the headlines surrounding the New York Giants are regarding Odell Beckham, and whilst these are justified to an extent, the balance of the offence and how the Giants were on defence did not inspire last week against the Vikings and this week they travel to face the Packers in Green Bay. The Packers are coming off a bye and it looks like Jordy Nelson is beginning to find his timing with Aaron Rodgers. The points worry me as the Packers let the Lions back into their week three game that they were leading 31-10 at halftime, but their defence has looked good, although they will miss Sam Shields, and so I’m nervously backing the Packers to win big here as I think they are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-3.5)

The Panthers are without Cam Newton and have not been playing well this season, but Tama Bay are ranked near the bottom of the league in offence and overall DVOA, with a first year head coach that is struggling on the side of the ball he is responsible for. I am not sure whether the Panthers can turn their season round, but I think they should run out winners over the Bucs in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Week 5 Picks – Late Edition

12 Monday Oct 2015

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Things are afoot with the Wrong Football, which meant that I overlooked the post I was meant to put up announcing the teams that Dan picked before the games were played on Sunday. This will have been particularly annoying to Dan as he had a better week than me and has already won week five, it’s just a matter of how many games he will claw back, but for the record these were his picks for the Sunday games with his selections in Bold:

Washington @ Falcons (-7.5)
Bills @ Titans (+2.5)
Bears @ Chiefs (-9.5)
Seahawks @ Bengals (-1.5)
Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)
Rams @ Packers (-9.5)
Saints @ Eagles (-5.5)
Jaguars @ Buccaneers (-2.5)
Cardinals @ Lions (+2.5)
Patriots @ Cowboys (+9.5)
Broncos @ Raiders (+5.5)
49ers @ Giants (-7.5)

Tonight he is backing the Chargers as they host the Steelers, and I’m in the strange position of wanting my division rivals to win so I get a game back this week. I’m not hoping that hard…

NFL Week 5 Picks

08 Thursday Oct 2015

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As the majority of NFL teams reach the quarter mark of the season and take stock of their start to the season, I’m having a rethink about the format of the blog as I’m spending too much time writing up a 3.5-4k picks blog that is big enough that it is stopping me for watching coaching tape and writing about what I see. So I am going to comment on some of the themes from last week, anything that strikes me about the upcoming games, and finally a quicker run through the matchups plus our picks. Let’s not talk about how we both did last week.

The obvious theme that comes out of week four is presented to us by the rotten start the Dolphins have had to the season and the firing of their head coach Joe Philburn. There is more to a team winning than the quarterback or coach, in fact an American football team requires more players, more coaches, and more coordinated effort than any other sporting endeavour I can think of. From the players, to the coaching staff, behind the scenes personnel, and the front office, there are so many ways that a franchise can gain a competitive edge, but this also leaves a huge amount of room for dysfunction. I don’t want to pile on to the Dolphins too much, for the sake of Dan’s sanity as much as anything, but things are clearly not running harmoniously down in Miami.

It is unusual to fire NFL coaches mid-season as so much work is done before the start of the season, and there is so little time to work on new things once the season starts, that in most cases you just have to ride it out with an eye on developing young talent and what is coming up in the draft. However, Miami have too much talent and have invested too much into the short-term to let things slide any longer, and so Philburn had to go. I’ll leave the in depth dissection of Philburn’s tenure to fans of the Dolphins and the media, but the change in coach doesn’t necessarily mean a change in outcome. There were plenty of people impressed by Dan Campbell’s introductory press conference, but it was interesting to listen to Coach Reinebold on the Inside the Huddle podcast point out that despite what he proclaimed when questioned, Campbell will have an opinion on the defensive coaching having gone against them in practice all season, and so he is either not being as forthright as some would believe in that press conference, or he is not paying as much attention in practice as you would want. Either way he has leaped over both coordinators, which may not be that surprising given how they have been performing on both sides of the ball, but is not standard and it will be interesting how the new head coach goes for the rest of the season. The Dolphins seem to very much be under the Chinese curse of may you live in interesting times.

If you look wider, at team records across the league, you will see a lot teams that are familiar to us through offseason splashes in the last couple of years struggling whilst those teams often at the top tend to be quietly developing their teams through careful free agent transactions and the draft. There is no single way to build a football team, but it appears that if you are hearing too much about your team without having to search out information explicitly, then a rough season might be on the way.

With that said, it’s time to take a look at the upcoming games, passing quickly over the mess Dan and I made of our picks last week.

Gee:    Week 4   6-9               Overall   32-31
Dan:    Week 4   4-11             Overall   28-35

Colts @ Texans (+2.5)

The Texans have been a bad team so far, they’re not playing well on defence despite having Sirr JJ of Watt, and Head Coach Bill O’Brien really made a mockery of stating that Hoyer wouldn’t have a short leash by benching him after three quarters in the first game. This team are a living testament to the old saying that if you have two quarterbacks, then you don’t have one, and I’m not surprised that they only started scoring points against the Falcons last week when Hoyer started playing in garbage time, but apparently Mallet remains the starting quarterback.

This week they welcome a Colts team that did enough to win last week with a forty year old backup quarterback against a Jaguars team that can’t quite find a win, but I still don’t trust their defence or offensive line. With the quarterback questions surrounding the Colts I’m still trying to make up my mind as I go through this final edit, Dan has already changed his pick, and I’m reluctantly following suit given the Texans are at home, but I am not happy about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Texans
Dan’s Pick:    Texans

Scheduling note: Dan is away this week, so he has picked the Thursday night game, and will get the rest to me before Sunday so I can get them up on the blog.

Washington @ Falcons (-7.5)

That wasn’t exactly a more concise write up for the last game, but this on is easier. The Falcons are transformed this season, and even a slightly banged up Julio Jones couldn’t slow them down last week. The NFC East is something of a mess this season, but Washington do seem to be able to hang their hat on solid run offence and defence, and look to be finally heading in the right direction, but this is a step too far for them.

Gee’s Pick:     Falcons

Bills @ Titans (+2.5)

The Titans finally are beginning to carve themselves an identity with a blitzing defence, and a rookie quarterback showing promise. Meanwhile the Bills are a confusing 2-2 as they switch between terrifying defence and picked apart. We always knew that the Bills offence could be hit and miss with a first year starter at quarterback, but the better quarterbacks seem to be finding something against Rex Ryan’s pressure schemes. In years to come this probably changes, but I’m not ready to back Marcus Mariota in this one yet.

Gee’s Pick:     Bills

Bears @ Chiefs (-9.5)

I’m struggling to let go of my hope for the Chiefs. They have so much of what I enjoy, a great running back and a stunning pair of pass rushers. The problem is that a combination of offensive line play and Alex smith holding onto the ball on offence, plus a defence that is giving up to much in the passing game, means that they are not winning against the tough teams they’ve faced so far. However, whilst the Bears managed a win last week, I don’t expect them to give the Chiefs too many problems, but I’m not sure that the men in red will be blowing anybody out in the near future, even in front of their famously raucous fans at Arrowhead. I can’t quite believe I’m backing the Bears…

Gee’s Pick:     Bears

Seahawks @ Bengals (-1.5)

Good teams win at home, so the cliché goes, but it has been a foundation of the Bengals recent playoff appearances. They are playing very well this year, although I’d like the pass coverage to improve a bit, but that is a bit picky given that they are still ranked 14th by Football Outsiders in pass defence. They welcome a Seattle team that have got back to 2-2 by the skin of their teeth, but whilst the defence is looking better with the return of Kam Chancellor, I’m not convinced by their offence, which is not running the ball at all well. If you only just beat the Lions with your famous home field advantage, I’m not backing you to win in the Bengals’ back garden.

Gee’s Pick:     Bengals

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Ravens haven’t managed the latest roster transition as well as we have come to expect, with a lack of depth at receiver and corner really costing them, but at least they ran the ball a bit better in Pittsburgh in a game they were determined, if a bit lucky to win. The Browns skill players are playing better than I was expecting, and Josh McCown has demonstrated over the last two weeks why he is starting, I’m just not sure what it established over the long term. I expect the Ravens to win, especially given the Browns run defence, but not by seven points or more, even with the Browns travelling to Baltimore

Gee’s Pick:     Browns

Rams @ Packers (-9.5)

The Packers showed they could win another way, and still beat the 49ers by two touchdowns. The Rams defence has now managed to play well for two straight weeks, and if rookie running back Todd Gurly can show more flashes as they work him into the lineup then they might start to edge towards progress, but I don’t see them having any luck against the Packers in Green Bay. In fact, looking at the schedule I’m not sure the Packers will lose in Lambeau during the regular season.

Gee’s Pick:     Packers

Saints @ Eagles (-5.5)

Oh what a holy mess the Eagles are in, but whilst some are enjoying their schadenfreude, I’m just finding it all a bit sad. I was hugely impressed by Kelly in interviews last year, but I did not like a number of his offseason moves, and once the regular season hit the limitations of attempting to beat someone by scheme in a professional setting are all too prevalent. That said, if their line was playing better then they might be able to run the ball better, which has always been the mainstay of this offence.

This week the Eagles welcome a Saints team that got a win last week with the return of Drew Brees. That said, they took overtime to do it and I’m really not impressed with the Saints defence so far. After a long game, and travelling, I have a feeling that they will not have enough to beat the Eagle in Philadelphia, I’m just not sure how close the game will be.

I don’t have a lot of faith in either team, particularly with these points, but I’m reluctantly picking the Eagles, but if you like a bet please stay away from this game!

Gee’s Pick:     Eagles

Jaguars @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Buccaneers are going to struggle all year, they can’t rely on their defence, and famous Jameis does not look settled in the pro game, is looking down receiver and throwing too many interceptions. This is one of the games the Jaguars have to have circled, even if they are on the road. They are missing key players yet keeping themselves in games against similar level competition, but they can’t get over the hump. I have a feeling they might win this one though, and as I’m getting points as well…

Gee’s Pick:     Jaguars

Cardinals @ Lions (+2.5)

The Lions played tougher on defence last week, and really should have won the game, but the offence is misfiring. There is a lot of disquiet about Matthew Stafford in Detroit, but with a ropey offensive line and no running game, the Lions aren’t exactly putting him in the best place to win. The problem is that he has never made good decisions, and this week he faces a Cardinals team that will be desperate to get back to winning ways after laying an egg against a division rival. I still believe in the Cardinals coaching staff and I’m backing them to get back to winning ways in this one.

Gee’s Pick:     Cardinals

Patriots @ Cowboys (+9.5)

The Cowboys have a well coached defence, but they didn’t have the players before they started to get injured, and add to that an offence that has lost their starting quarterback and the receiver that stretches the field for them and you have a recipe for trouble. A visit from the Patriots is not what they need to get back on track, and the Cowboys must be kicking themselves for not getting a win in one of the last two weeks as I don’t see a way they will in this one. I’ll be interested to see if the early bye affects the Patriots later in the season, but I see nothing in this game that makes me worrying about the Patriots covering.

Gee’s Pick:     Patriots

Broncos @ Raiders (+5.5)

The Raiders are officially an up and coming team in my book, but they are also young, which means they make mistakes and so they were unable to get a second straight win on the road last week. This week however, they welcome a Broncos team that are struggling on offence as they can’t run the ball consistently, and Peyton Manning threw two bad picks in their close win against the Vikings. The Broncos are a team that right now is relying on their defence, which I suspect means a series of tight games, and whilst I think they will win more than they lose, I think this is too many points to give to the Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:     Raiders

That’s right folks, he just picked the Raiders against an unbeaten team with that defence, I’d better get back to watching coaching tape soon and rely on what I can see with my own two eyes.

49ers @ Giants (-7.5)

The Giants have a solid run defence, and an offence that seems to be coming together as the line play improves and Manning begins to get more timing with the receivers not named Beckham. The 49ers have played one of the toughest schedules in the league so far, and travelling across the country in this game won’t help. They are playing some tough defence in stretches, but are an absolute mess on offence and desperately need to run some bootleg and simpler concept pass plays for Kaepernick who has been a truly dreadful quarterback this season.

Gee’s Pick:     Giants

Steelers @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers always have a chance with Philip Rivers, but whilst there have been good signs from rookie running back Melvin Gordon, injuries on the offensive line have meant that Rivers is taking too many hits. More worryingly, the defence has not been good, and is particularly bad against the run. A ranking of 25th by defensive DVOA is not what you want when Le’Veon Bell is coming to town. The Steelers should have won the game last Thursday, with Michael Vick demonstrating his limitation, but doing enough to win if the clock management/kicking game had been better. It is not a good spot to be picking an underdog on the road, but they’ve had extra days to get over last week’s overtime and the extra half point sways me that this close game will result in a Steelers cover or win.

Gee’s Pick:     Steelers

NFL Week 5 Picks

03 Friday Oct 2014

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So a little delayed, I present this week’s picks:

One of the things I love about the NFL is also one of the things that make the process of picking games so difficult. On any given Sunday you’ll get the unexpected and there are very few nailed on wins or losses. Last week I was five and eight, but I only dropped another game behind Dan so hopefully I can still turn this round. The reason we had such a tough week is that who could have predicted that the 0-3 Buccaneers would beat the Steelers; or that the struggling Vikings would batter the Falcons 41-28; or that the Eagles would block a punt to score a touchdown, return an interception for a touchdown, and return another punt for a touchdown, yet still lose to the 49ers. There are picks I feel good about that lost and some that I’d love to have back, but I think we’re beginning to get a better idea about some of these teams so let’s take look at the upcoming week.

Gee:     Week 4   5-8                Overall   26-35
Dan:     Week 4   6-7                Overall   28-33

Vikings @ Packers (-9.5)

The quality of the Thursday night games has been somewhat up and down again this season, and I’d love to see a close game at some point. I’m looking forward to this game a lot, the Vikings had a really good win on Sunday against the Falcons with Teddy Bridgewater in his first game taking care of the ball and throwing for 317 yards, whilst their defence held the Falcons enough to win. The worrying this is that Teddy Bridgewater sprained is ankle and is questionable for this game. It appears that the Aaron Rodgers was right when he told Packer’s fans to relax, as he threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns, shredding the Bears defence to win their game. I’m struggling a little with this game, as I don’t think that the Vikings will allow over 200 yards of rushing but they have been inconsistent and Teddy Bridgewater is a doubt I think that the Packers will win this game, although there are still questions about them, and this is me changing my mind, but the Thursday night games have been very one sided so I think the Packers will cover the points as well.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Dan’s Comments: – his one is pretty difficult because of the spread, but I think I’ll go for Packers on this one.

Falcons @ Giants (-3.5)

This is an interesting pairing of teams. The Falcons have been Jekyll & Hyde all season, although the Saints and Bucs are looking bad so I’m not sure how much faith to put in them at all. I’ve seen them a couple of times, the Bengals defence stifled them pretty well in that loss and the Bucs didn’t offer much resistance when the Falcons beat them. Their offence looks good when it is firing but they literally ran out of linemen on Sunday and had to use a tight end as a right tackle for an extended stretch., They lack a pass rush and depth in the middle of the defence although their corners are good. Overall, I’m not convinced by them against competent opposition and their o-line is going to remain a mess. The Giants have been improving all season, and whilst I need to be careful as Thursday night games have flattered several teams this year, I think that Manning is getting to grips with the new offence and looked really good against Washington. Now granted, that was against a defence that got very little pressure and looked horrible in coverage, but I don’t see the Falcons doing much better overall despite their corners. I like the Giants to win this game, and strongly enough that I’ll take whilst giving points..

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Dan’s Comments: – Giants absolutely took Washington apart in week 4, while the Falcons were taken apart by the Vikings, so I’m going to go with Giants in this game.

Bills @ Lions (-7.5)

It has taken me for attempts to start writing this game up, which is because I am so confused by the Bills. They have a great defensive line, have played well in spurts, but EJ Manuel has been so inconsistent that they’ve dropped him. I think this is because of how open the division is this year, but I don’t think the Bills are going in the right direction. However, the Lions appear to be as they’ve been more disciplined and are good on defence. They racked up a solid win against the Jets despite Calvin Johnson being quiet and I see them beating the Bills fairly easily. I could be wrong as I’ve only picked one Bills game correctly all season, but I’m going for the Lions.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lionss

Dan’s Comments: – Got to be Lions. While they didn’t run away with the Jets, I still think they’ve got enough to go over the Bills.

Bears @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Carolina Panthers lost heavily to a good Ravens team, but the worrying thing for them is that the defence that initially seemed so good is currently ranked twenty-eighth by DVOA and is beginning to show cracks as they are missing some pieces. The o-line is starting to look how many feared it would going into the season, and. I worry about this team going forward. The Bears are a flawed team, that to an extent are going to live and die on the difference between good Cutler and bad Cutler, because he has one of those arms that makes him think he can make every throw. In some games this will work and in others he’ll throw interceptions, but the Bears defence is not one that follows in the traditions of the club. In fairness, they held up pretty well in the run, which was the area of concern for many, but they were shredded by Aaron Rodgers. I’m wary of reading too much into team rankings, as match ups do matter, but there are thirteen places between them by DVOA and I think the Bears will recover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Dan’s Comments: – Two teams who struggled last week, but let’s go with the Bears.

Browns @ Titans (-2.5)

Oh dear, the Titans gave up nearly 500 yards to the Colts last week, and after winning against the Chiefs in week 1, they have lost three straight. They are uncertain at quarterback, and so whilst they have some good looking receivers, they have no one to throw them the ball, yet somehow they’re giving points to the Browns. Mike Pettine has the Browns playing pretty well, their defence is not ranked as highly as I thought they would be, but their offence is doing surprisingly well despite missing some parts and I think they will have too much for the Titans as they come off their bye week.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Dan’s Comments: – Can’t see any further than the Browns against Titans this week

Texans @ Cowboys (-4.5)

This is a really hard game for me to pick. The Cowboys have surprised everyone by playing okay on defence, and running the ball behind a good young offensive line. There is a worry about DeMaroc Murray as although he’s been superb in four games, already racking up 534 yards, he has never played sixteen games, but right now they are doing well. I haven’t got a full read on the Texans. They’re not the most amazing team on either side of the ball, but they find a way to win and they have the best defensive player in the league. I’ll try not to get boring on the subject of JJ Watt, but last week he returned an interception for a touchdown, and did not look like a 3-4 defensive end whilst doing it, as well as racking up nine quarterback hits. I think this could be a close game, but I’m taking the points and going with the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Dan’s Comments: – Two in form teams. I can see the Texans D controlling the Cowboys O, so I’ll go for the Texans.

Ravens @ Colts (-3.5)

The Colts have got themselves back on track with two straight wins, but they were against the Jaguars and Titans. When people are making comments about even Trent Richardson scores against the Titans, it is bad for the Titans, but it is also not great if you’re the team that traded a first round pick to get him. I am not convinced by this team, although Andrew Luck is excellent. However, they are facing a Ravens team that steamrollered the Panthers and have looked good for most of the season. The defence is playing well, and the offence is really coming along. I don’t expect Steve Smith Snr, who has been good all year. to be quite as fired up as he was when facing his old team, but I fancy the Ravens to at least cover in this game, if not win.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Dan’s Comments: – I think the Ravens are the obvious choice here, but I just can’t help but thinking the Colts will take it for some reason!

Rams @ Eagles (-7.5)

The Eagles have problems with their offensive line, which they have been working round for most of the season, but it was too much to overcome on Sunday. The 49ers defence did an amazing job on the Eagles offence, and it was only their special teams play and a pick six that kept the Eagles in the game. I wrote last week that I thought they could lose, but they wouldn’t by more than six and I was right. This is a game that I can see them winning, but I’m not sure that they will by eight or more. There is still a lot of talent on the Rams defence that hasn’t clicked yet this season, but in Austin Davis they found a quarterback that moved the ball against the Cowboys, and the Eagles are not good on defence. I think they might do okay in this game coming off a bye, although I might be wary of large lines after last week, but I’m backing the Rams to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Dan’s Comments: – I think the Eagles will have this one pretty easy this week. I’ve not liked much of what I’ve seen of St. Louis so far this year.

Buccaneers @ Saints (-10.5)

Now this is a line to worry about. I’m really pleased that the Bucs proved me wrong, and having said that I couldn’t see where they were going to win a game, they promptly beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. They got Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson back on the defensive line, which did much better than against the Falcons, and Mike Glennon gave them better play than McCown at quarterback. The reason that this line bothers me is that both teams are 1-3 and whilst I don’t exactly trust the Bucs, I don’t see why the Saints are giving 10.5 points, even if they are back home. The Saints have not been clicking on offence, and might really be regretting trading Darren Sproles to the Eagles. Their defence, that improved so much last year, seems to be returning to average, with Rob Ryan blitzing a lot and not winning on his gambles. This Saints have struggled this season and I hate the points spread even if they do beat the Bucs, which I’m not convinced they will.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Dan’s Comments: – Another one I’ve struggled with when picking, as I think given the spread it could go either way.

Steelers @ Jaguars (+6.5)

I feel sorry for the Jaguars this week. They’ve played well in stretches, but haven’t been able to put together a whole game, although it does look like there are promising signs that they’ve found their quarterback. The worrying thing for me is that they are ranked thirty-first in defence by DVOA and that is Gus Bradley’s side of the ball. It might be that they can turn it round as the season goes on, and let’s hope they do for the London game, but I’ll believe it when I see it. The Steelers are another Jekyll & Hyde team, alternating wins and losses. They have one the best receivers playing at the moment in Antonio Brown, and have been looking pretty good on offence, but their defence is struggling. It’s looked a bit old at time and they were missing players last week against the Bucs. I really liked what I saw of Ryan Shazier so they’ll be hoping to get him back soon. I think that this is an experienced team who are going to be furious after last week’s result and in the Jaguars, they are playing against a good team to help them get back on track. I might be wrong, but I think this is another big loss for the Jaguars.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dan’s Comments: – Steelers to bounce back this week. Sorry Jags fans – this is becoming a long season for you!

Caridnals @ Broncos (-7.5)

This is a cracking game, with both teams playing well and coming off a bye. The Cardinals have been excellent on defence, but Carson Palmer is still having problems with a nerve issue in his shoulder and so I’m worried about them on offence. The Broncos are not playing as well as last year on offence, but they don’t need to with the bolstering of their defence during the offseason, and they may well be a better overall team as a result. I think this game is almost impossible to call, I think it will be close but I could see either side winning handily. This pick is coming down to points, and whilst the Broncos are at home, and traditionally have a good home field advantage due to the altitude, I’m wary of the 7.5 number.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Dan’s Comments: – Arizona to continue their winning streak after their Bye last Sunday.

Chiefs @ 49ers (-7.5)

There are times when you should follow your convictions, and my first instinct was to pick the Chiefs last week. I was backing the Brady, Belichik combination on Monday night, which I said was a bad reason to pick a game and so it proved to be. The Chiefs played well on defence, moved the ball on a Patriots defence, which was ranked highly and beat the Patriots convincingly enough that some are question if it is the end of an era in New England. I’ll save talk of that for when I write about the Patriots, but clearly the Chiefs are heading in the right direction. The 49ers did it with defence last week against the Eagles. There still seem to be some issues with their offence, but they did well to overcome their special teams miscues and get a much needed win. I’m really not sure how this one is going, so I am again running away from giving this many points in a game I don’t have a strong opinion on.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Dan’s Comments: – It’s got to be the Chiefs after their fantastic result on this week’s MNF.

Jets @ Chargers (-7.5)

The Jets are currently ranked seventeenth on defence by DVOA, which when you consider their secondary is possibly not that bad, but if your identity as a team is one of defence then it is a problem. There are signs that Geno Smith is making progress, but not fast enough, and there were ugly scenes when the Jets fans starting chanting for Michael Vick. They have only one win and I don’t seem them getting a second this week. I’m not sure if there is a quarterback playing better than Phil Rivers at the moment, who is doing it without a good running game and a defence that is holding its own. I’m a little bit worried about the points, but in this game I’m prepared to give them as the Chargers are a team that I’m 3-1 with across the season.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Dan’s Comments: – The Chargers are on fire at the minute, and the Jets aren’t making things easy for themselves. San Diego win.

Bengals @ Patriots (-2.5)

I wrote about Patriots line last week and I only backed them as they were on Monday night football. We’ve had too many games now for this to be an aberration, but whilst I still have nagging doubts about picking against them on a nationally televised game I can’t back them in this one. The line might improve, but it seems a mess at the moment, and the skill players can’t get open. The Bengals have looked pretty good on offence despite missing some parts, whilst the defence has looked great even with Burfit missing time with a concussion. I’m worried about jinxing this, but I think the Bengals will win without the aid of a thunderstorm this time.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Dan’s Comments: – The Patriots are one of the lowest scoring teams in the league this year, and the Bengals are scoring an average of 27 points a game without letting much past them. Easy

Seattle @ Washington (+7.5)

I wrote about how bad the Washington defence against the Giants last week, which actually worries me more than the wobble Kirk Cousins had forcing the issue as he tried to get them back in the game. I don’t think he will be as bad, but I don’t see him coping with the Seahawks defence, even if they don’t have the amazing Seattle crowd helping them. The Seahawks are fresh of a bye and are looking like there are going to go deep again this season, making this a fairly straight forward pick.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Dan’s Comments: – I think this one’s got to be the Seahawks. I don’t think Washington have it in them this week.

I feel pretty good about this weeks’ picks, but then I do most weeks. Sadly I’m only picking against Dan twice this week so I’m not sure I’ll be making much ground up on any time soon.