Tag Archives: Ryan Tannehill

Week 5 – the Week of the Kicker

10 Wednesday Oct 2018

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We’re well over a quarter of the way through the season now – seems far too early for that to be the case, but it is! There are two teams still undefeated, and unfortunately, since I last wrote, the Dolphins are no longer one of them.

I won’t go into the Patriots game, as I’ve somewhat moved on since that drubbing, but what will take me a while to get over is the loss in this year’s ‘Wrong Football Bowl’ against the Bengals. When I was messaging Gee on Sunday night, I used the word ‘Angry’ to discuss how I felt about how things went down, and while there’s definitely an element of that, 24 hours removed from the game, I think it’s more a feeling of disappointment and one of being more than a little let down.

So for those of you who don’t know, the Dolphins went 17-0 up just after half time, and with the help of one pick six and one returned fumble TD, the Bengals scored 27 unanswered points and won the game. Yes, there are definite positives in how the Dolphins are doing things, but it’s seriously frustrating to give up a 3 score lead in less than a half of football. I’ve seen a lot of people on twitter putting the blame squarely at Tannehill, and it’s easy to see why. Where in the last few weeks he has been making some great throws, this week he seemed a bit clumsy, was taking too many risks, and held onto the ball too long at times. But for me, the injury to Tunsil was more of a turning point – when he went off, he was replaced with rookie Sam Young, who really struggled to give Tannehill the time in the pocket that he needed. [It also doesn’t help that Tunsil is the third offensive linemen of the Dolphins to pick up an injury – Ed.]

Also, too many 3rd and Long situations… that’s never good.

On the plus side, the run game was pretty good again this week, and Jakeem Grant is just born to return kicks, which is always useful. And I must say, all of this takes nothing away from the Bengals, who had a great second half – I know Gee was worried specifically about the absence of Tyler Eifert, but he didn’t need to be on this performance. Oh well, to paraphrase Boring Bill, it’s on to Chicago next week!

But enough about the Dolphins, what has been happening elsewhere? Well, one thing that caught my eye was the situation in the Blue half of New York where the Giants haven’t had the start to the season that they wanted, and now sit at 1-4. Before this week though, Odell Beckham was asked about how he felt about things – more specifically the Quarterback situation. He said that he ‘didn’t know’ if there was a problem under centre, which of course meant that some facets of the media decided that they hated each other. During their game this week though, Mr Beckham got chance to show what he could do with the ball and threw a 57 yard Touchdown! They lost the game in the end, courtesy of a last second Panthers field goal, but keeping it close will have helped their confidence a little.

For those of you who have followed us for a while, you’ll know that I have a lot of respect for the kickers of the league, so I can’t really sign off this week’s post without at least a brief look at Mason Crosby in Green Bay. He’s missed a few crucial kicks over the last couple of weeks, including 2 potential game winners against the Vikings the other week, but this weekend he missed a PAT and 4 Field Goals… I’ve mentioned it before, but the world of the kicker is a cut-throat one, and it often doesn’t take much for a kicker to find themselves on the sharp end of the cut. With figures like this, I worry that it won’t be long before he’s out of a job, so lets keep an eye on the situation there.

And on a similar note, I almost missed the opportunity to bring up Graham Gano’s incredible 63 yard field goal winner for the Panthers – amazing to think kickers can make them from that far out!

Oh yes, and you’ve not had an update on my LA Rams Super Bowl bet for a couple of weeks have you! Don’t let me hold you back any longer…

I’ve had chance to watch a couple of their games recently, and I am REALLY impressed! I couldn’t think of a better team to have my money on at the minute which is always a positive.

But who is your money on? What odds would you give your team of making the Super Bowl this year after 5 weeks? Give me a shout on Twitter and lets have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

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High-fives All Round!

26 Wednesday Sep 2018

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So, we’re three weeks into the season now, and things are starting to spice up a bit!

Where to start this week? Suppose I’ll start with the Dolphins as is traditional. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but we’re 3-0 – how on earth did that happen?! We’ve not looked overwhelmingly fantastic this year so far, but have been doing enough to win games, which I suppose is all that matters. With only one of our first three opponents going into Week 4 with a winning record (the Titans, if you’re asking), the Patriots this week are going to be a real test.

Performance-wise, it was a bit of a mixed bag. Tannehill and his receiving team seem to be on the same page and working well together, and a special mention this week has to go to Albert Wilson for not only taking the QB role in a trick play touchdown, but also managing to run in a 74 yard touchdown which won us the game – if he doesn’t get a Madden Team of the Week card in Ultimate Team this week, I’ll be very disappointed.

On the other side of the ball though, the Defence weren’t as good as they have been for the first two weeks. Some of that’s down to injury (and ejection!) meaning the line were taking a lot more reps than they would usually have in the Florida sun, but we’ll have to wait and see how they pick up next week.

Elsewhere, there were some comings and goings at the QB position – it was Carson Wentz’ first game since his mid-season injury last year, and he wasted very little time in getting back into the swing of things. That’s hardly surprising though given that the reports coming out of Philadelphia suggested he was keeping deeply ingrained in the foundations of the team during his absence, and was frequently seen as the Eagles biggest fan in their run up to the Super Bowl. Bit harsh on Nick Foles though, I must say. He’s not done too badly this year so far but it’s clear they feel that Wentz is their Franchise QB for years to come, so it makes sense to bring him back.

Jimmy G though has gone the other way. He came off mid-game on Sunday with an injury which has turned out to be an ACL tear officially ruling him out for the rest of the season. I’m really disappointed about this – he was such an energising force for the 49ers at the end of last season (who remembers how badly they were doing before he joined?!) and while it hadn’t completely carried over into this season, he won’t be playing any further part this year.

Oh hang on, how have I got this far into this week’s post without mentioning the BROWNS?! The fans in Cleveland woke up on Friday feeling like it was Christmas morning… not least because the last time they woke up after a win it WAS Christmas Day… in 2016! (Note – I cant take credit for this. Neil Reynolds pointed this out on twitter the other day!). I’m really pleased for Browns fans. I don’t think they’ll get too many wins this year, but they seem to be in a much better place than they have been.

Betting update:

At what point should it get tempting to cash out?! The Rams are now showing themselves as the actual favourites for the Super Bowl this year (according to bet365 anyway!) but it is of course still early days!

Oh, and less said about picks and fantasy the better – stupidly, after sending my picks to Gee, I think I forgot to actually submit them, and as a result, it didn’t register, so this week I’m very thankful to Gee for being the organised member of the team who keeps spreadsheets of this kind of thing! I take back everything I said last week when I was rubbing in the fact I was beating him (although… I think I still am!). [We are in fact level after three weeks -Ed.]

How are your team doing so far this year? Is anyone particularly surprising you so far? Drop me a line on twitter and lets have a chat!

This time next week, I’ll be in Dubai with Mrs. B celebrating our anniversary, so my Dad will be filling my shoes and making his picks for the week against Gee. Be gentle on him – he’s a Vikings fan so hasn’t finished scratching his head over how they managed to lose to the Bills!

Speak to you in a couple of weeks…

@TWFDan

Great Start To The Season… Except For Our Fantasy Team!

12 Wednesday Sep 2018

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Ok, it’s Tuesday which means it’s Blogging time for me! I’m just back from watching a boring England side in ‘the Other Football’ beat Switzerland in a boring friendly… such a comedown from a great weekend of NFL!

Where to start? Well, the Dolphins I suppose! Good win for the fins this week against a battered and bruised Tennessee Titans – this despite two weather related game breaks meaning the game which started at 6pm over here in England went on to finish just after 1:20am on Monday morning! It’s a good job my boss knows why I’m always knackered on Mondays during the season. On a serious note, I was impressed by Miami – we looked renewed which was nice, and special mentions have to go to Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake (who I can see running through some dirty great holes in defences this year), a debuting Minkah Fitzpatrick (who made some critical defensive stops) and Ryan Tannehill who looked fresh returning from Injury.

Speaking of which, there were a few QBs coming back this week. I got to see some of Deshaun Watson for the Texans and Andrew Luck for the Colts. It won’t be long before Watson is back to his best, but Andrew Luck is going to struggle if his line let him get hit as much as he did by the Bengals in the coming weeks.

Image Credit – nypost.com

Honourable QB mentions should also go to Aaron Rodgers, who lead his team to an incredible comeback victory even with an injured leg, after being down by more than 20 points, and Ryan Fitzpatrick who threw over 400 yards and got himself a couple of touchdowns in the process – hands up who had him in their fantasy team? …anyone?? If he carries on like that, Jamies Winston will struggle to get back in when his suspension is up.

The Browns did the most Brownsy thing they possibly could and when attempting a medium range kick to win their game with the Steelers in overtime, managed to get it blocked and come away with a tie. It means they definitely won’t go 0-16 this year but it would have been nice of them to get one in the W column in a divisional game week one. Le’veon Bell will have been a keen spectator of that game, having not travelled with Pittsburgh for this one due to his ongoing contractual hold-out. I can’t see him leaving the Steelers, but some of their key players will be knocking on management’s door this week trying to get a deal done and get him back in yellow and black.

Image Credit – CBS Sports

And my early pick for the Super Bowl, the Rams, managed a good win on Monday too. Not managed to watch that game yet but I’ll pick that up in the next few days. So, “how’s the odds chart looking Dan?” I hear you cry! Well, like this, I reply:

Odds are down to 10-1 after week one actually making them third favourites – level with the Eagles and behind only the Vikings and the Patriots. Not bad after one game!

The Wrong Football fantasy team didn’t manage to get off to a winning start unfortunately, beaten by 192.5 to 183.4. This disappoints me having gone unbeaten with the ‘Suh Tang Clan’ 2 years ago (I might have mentioned it once or twice on the pod…!!). I’ll be wheeling and dealing in the market this week as I was too late to pick up a good Running back off waivers and Lynch is questionable. The full team looks something like this:

Feedback welcomed, but I can’t promise to listen!!

Anyway, before I go this week, quick shout to Darren Butler (@darrenbutler87) who gave me a great little bit of trivia this week which I wanted to share with you…

“For three years between 1983 and 1986 the Heisman Trophy Winner was not drafted by an NFL Franchise, with all three opting to join the USFL spring series instead.”

Lovely little stat that! In the spirit of our trivia competition, if you’ve got a good bit of NFL trivia to share (useless or otherwise – the more ‘pub knowledge’ the better!) drop me a tweet @TWFDan and you may get a mention here next week!

That’s all for now. Until next time…

@TWFDan

AFC Preview

04 Tuesday Sep 2018

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18-09-04 AFC

With the new season only days away I thought I would take you through a whistle-stop tour of the league starting with an AFC preview and I’ll give the NFC teams their own post before the Philadelphia Eagle and Atlanta Falcons get things under way on Thursday.

I don’t particularly like making predictions as there are too many variables and injury luck is can be such a huge part of team success so I’ll be breaking the divisions up into favourites, competitive, and likely to struggle as I work my way round the division compass so without further ado let’s make a start on the .

AFC North

Much as it is painful for a Bengals fan to say it, the favourite to take the AFC North division is still the Pittsburgh Steelers. They may have questions at linebacker thanks to Ryan Shazier’s injury, but the defence still finished top ten last year by DVOA in and the options in their offence are still terrifying. Time is ticking for Ben Roethlisberger but as long as he doesn’t suffer a dramatic fall off then this is going to be one of the teams of the conference who should have their eyes on the Super Bowl.

The AFC North is always a tough division, and even when the Browns are struggling they are often a tough out, but not so much under Hue Jackson. However, with a defence that has looked good in pre-season and the additions of Jarvis Landy and Tyrod Taylor as well as new offensive co-ordinator Toddy Haley it at least feels like the infrastructure for success is more solid. In a position to let rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield develop and not rush him I think the Browns will be more competitive than last season, but whether their ill-discipline (they got penalised a lot in pre-season) will allow them to win games I don’t know. I think we’ll know a lot more about this team by the end of the first four games.

The Baltimore Ravens are another team who are perennially competitive but had to do it with defence and special teams last year. With a kicker like Justin Tucker you can mask a lot of deficiencies in offence but the thing the Ravens coaches might be most happy about having drafted Lamar Jackson this year is the fire it seems to have lit under long time quarterback Joe Flacco. He may also have been helped by better receiving options and being healthy in the offseason for the first time in two years but if the Ravens’ Super Bowl winning play caller can lead the offensive to a better ranking than twenty-first by DVOA the Ravens will be right in contention for the playoffs again.

I’ve written a fair amount about the Cincinnati Bengals this pre-season and it is telling that neither of the offensive tackles two years that they drafted to prepare for a transition of talent have worked out whilst Andrew Whitworth looked great for the LA Rams last year. With new playbooks on both sides of the ball there have been a lot of changes to coaching and the roster. Whilst the Bengals have another young team there seemed to be a lot to like and if the O-line gels, then Andy Dalton should have a much easier time finding his myriad of skill players. I’m not pencilling them into the playoffs, but I’m not ruling it out and I wasn’t sure that would be the case when it was announced the Marvin Lewis was coming back.

AFC East

Is this the year that the New England Patriots falter? For the first time Tom Brady was not ever present through the off-season, their first round offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn ruptured his Achillies after they let starting left tackle Nate Solder leave in free-agency, and this was a team that went to the Super Bowl with a defence ranked thirty-first in the league by DVOA so they can ill afford an offensive wobble. I think we’re all at the point where we’ll believe Tom Brady is done when he has signed his retirement papers, but what will help them is that none of the rest of the division are exactly standing up as challengers at the moment and so the Patriots look to be favourites still. This could finally change though.

The Buffalo Bills made the playoffs for the first time in eighteen attempts last seasons, but they responded to this by cutting the quarterback that got them there, not signing the linebacker that led the league in tackles and trading their left tackle to the Bengals in the draft manoeuvres required to get their quarterback of the future. Have traded away AJ McCarron they have opted to go with rookie Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman as their QBs, but whilst Peterman has looked good in pre-season and Allen has flashed, the Bengals defensive line had a field day against Buffalo’s o-line and it could be a very long season for whoever starts. I was impressed with everything Sean McDermott did last season bar benching Tyrod Taylor but I don’t think this season’s roster is better than last years and I have a nasty feeling they will struggle for a lot of the season.

If you trade away your best offensive and defensive players for chemistry reasons, you had better have an awful lot of talent coming in and I’m not sure that Miami Dolphins do. I thought they had a good draft and I would say Adam Gase is a good coach but I’m not at all sure of the roster construction and this feels like the latest in a long series of make or break seasons for Ryan Tannehill. I believe that Gase can keep the locker room together and make them competitive but it would not surprise me if they fall into a difficult season. Nothing would make me happier than to be proved wrong, if only to cheer Dan through the season.

Finally we have the New York Jets, and I though Todd Bowles did an excellent job of coaching with a lack of talent on the roster last season and not sure many other coaches would have got as many wins. The most ready of the rookie quarterbacks fell into their laps in the draft and Sam Darnold looked good enough in pre-season that the Jets traded Teddy Bridgewater to the New Orleans Saints. I think it will take another or season or two to turn things round and I don’t know if Bowles will get the chance to complete the job, but I can see the Jets equalling their record of last season. There will be ups and downs with a rookie quarterback but the real question for this season is have the Jets finally got a franchise QB. Everything else after that can wait.

AFC South

The Jacksonville Jaguars continued to build their defence, stuck with Blake Bortles and their big free agent signing was a offensive guard. I thought that Bortles might have learnt a thing or two in last season’s playoff run but with the exodus at receiver and the injury to Marqise Lee this team will be as reliant as ever on their defence and the run game. The good news is that the defence will be no less scary and they should rightly be considered the favourites for this division.

The Houston Texans may have only won four games last season, but they revealed they could have a bright future as long as the young quarterback Deshaun Watson can recover his blistering form from last season before his knee injury. With the defence hoping a number of players stay healthy, including JJ Watt this could be really good team even if the offensive line looks to be a big problem. There are a lot of ifs there so whilst the Texans will start out competitively, how long they will remain so is the big question.

The Tennessee Titans ground their way into the playoffs with a run first offence and a defence that ranked twenty-first in the league by DVOA. This was not enough to save Mike Mularkey his job and there rookie head coach Mike Vraebel is hoping that Matt LaFleur can revitalise the offence and fourth year quarterback Marcus Mariota. The coaches with links to Bill Belichick have not necessary flourished as head coaches and Vraebel has limited experience as the man with ultimate responsibility so I am very curious to see how he goes. The honest answer is I’m not sure so this is one of the teams we’ll need to follow closely through the start of the season.

The Indianapolis Colts have struggled mightily with Andrew Luck being out injured but this also laid bare the problems with the rest of the roster and whilst there are signs that things are improving in the second year of Chris Ballard’s rebuild, a lot will depend on Andrew Lucks surgically repaired and extensively rehabbed shoulder. The good news is that he’s back to starting but new head coach Frank Reich will be hoping that he can get enough from his franchise quarterback that the season can be a success, but I have a feeling that being competitive would qualify as just that and would be a good place to start.

AFC South

The Kansas City Chiefs won the division last year and I have too much faith in Andy Reid to see this team as anything other than competitive and I would place them as favourites to win the division. That is despite trading Alex Smith to Washington to promote Patrick Mahomes as the starter after a season where the young quarterback sat on the bench. Mahomes has the arms to make use of the myriad of skills players the Chiefs can use in their offence that has borrowed liberally from college, whilst their defence was only ranked thirtieth by DVOA last year when they won the division. It wouldn’t take much to improve that ranking and with the potential of their offence the Chiefs could be one of the most fun teams to watch this season.

The other potential favourite in this division could be the LA Chargers but it would require them to get out of their own way and they couldn’t quite manage that last season. The abiding image of Philip Rivers for me these days is a player somehow functioning as an effective quarterback despite minimal protection from his line. The defence was just outside of the top ten with a fearsome pass rush led by Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa and they should be competitive again this season. The problem is that they have a nasty habit of losing close games and their ‘home’ games in LA were frequently more like home games for the opposition thanks to fan turnout. I’d like to think they can improve but I’m not willing to just outright declare it, although I’d be very willing to be proved wrong again.

I’m not entirely sure where to begin with the currently Oakland soon to be Las Vegas Raiders. The big move of the off-season would have been luring Jon Gruden out of the commentary booth nine years after he last coached except they have just traded Khalil Mack, one of the best young defensive players in the league, to the Chicago Bears. The reasoning is that the Mack’s contract demands were just too big, and the Bears wasted no time in signing Mack to a six year deal with $90 million guaranteed days after Aaron Donald signed a contract with $87 million guaranteed. The difference between the three franchises is that the Rams still have a young quarterback on their rookie contract as does the Bears, whilst the Raiders have already signed Derek Carr to a five year extension. The issue is that Gruden has been out of the league for a while, even if he was staying plugged into the NFL through his media gig, and the defence his brother Jay Gruden [I appear to have gone made, too many ex-Bengal coordinators involved as it is in fact Paul Guenther who is the new defensive coordinator – Ed.] takes over was ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA with Khalil Mack. I’m really not sure what to expect out of the Raiders this year, and whilst I can see the salary cap argument to an extent (I don’t study it hard, maybe that’s a task for next off-season) the Mack trade amongst others does nothing to help the Raiders now and I think this club will be in for a very interesting time this year.

Last year’s AFC West strugglers the Denver Broncos will be hoping that the addition of Case Keenum at quarterback will be enough of an upgrade to the offence to give the still competitive if retooled defence a chance of winning games. In the one game I saw them this preseason the offensive line still looked to be a problem but after a good pre-season from Chad Kelly, the Paxton Lynch development plan has finally been shelved. It is way too soon to question a GM who has won a Super Bowl and given his history as franchise quarterback you would think that the job is John Elway’s as long as he wants it. However, whilst he’s made a number of sharp moves in free-agency, his record in the draft is a bit patchier and his choice of Vance Joseph as head coach didn’t exactly yield the early returns that Elway would have hoped for. Still, if either Keenum or Kelly can make the offence competitive then the Broncos will be a team no one will want to face, especially at home and that could be enough for them to be in the playoff race come December.

Saturday Night’s Alright for Picking

17 Saturday Dec 2016

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And so we follow up Thursday night football this week with a Saturday night game.

Dolphins @ Jets (+2.5)

It is always a big change to a team’s fortunes when the starting quarterback goes down, but the Dolphins bounced back to beat the Cardinals last week despite Tannehill’s injury. This week they travel to face a Jets team who had to mount a second half come back to beat the 49ers in their last game. The Tannehill injury definitely hurts the Dolphins playoff chances, but even with Matt Moore I think they have enough to win this divisional game on the road. We’ll see if that is a mistake!

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Week Four: Dolphins @ Bengals

02 Sunday Oct 2016

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Cincinnati Bengals 22
Miami Dolphins 7

I found Thursday night’s game slightly more tense than the reports afterwards would suggest, but I suspect that would be because despite the disparity in play, the Bengals were not able to put this game comfortably away and so as a fan I was rather anxious. In large part this was down to the continuing problems with the Bengals’ offence so in telling the tale of this game, I will start there.

The Bengals offence has not yet come together this season. Andy Dalton is playing well and his combination with AJ Green is as strong as ever, which this season is a blessing as there are problems elsewhere. This is perhaps unsurprising given that there are two new receivers, a lineman, and tight end starting for the Bengals under a new offensive coordinator. I would say that Ken Zampese is still finding his way as coordinator, and I would imagine the Bengals’ struggle to run the ball will be worrying him. The Bengals were more commited to the run in this game with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard combining for thirty-one carries, but at roughly 2.9 yards per carry they were not able to be that effective except for the occasional good play. Luckily, AJ Green was back in his week one form going for one hundred and seventy-three yards and a touchdown as Andy Dalton posted another triple digit quarterback rating. In fairness, they Bengals were able to move the ball for large parts of the game, but the thing that is really killing them is their inability to finish in the red zone. The Bengals kicked five field goals in this game as they simply couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone, and this has to improve. Certainly getting their pro-bowl tight end Tyler Eifert back would help in this regard, but the slight miscues caused by so many new players on this side of the ball is really hurting the Bengals near the goal line.

The Dolphins defence certainly stacked up well against the Bengals in the running game, which given they were ranked twentieth in rush defence by DVOA coming into this game was an impressive effort. However, when you drop one of your big free agent acquisitions in Byron Maxwell and still allow AJ Green to get one hundred and seventy-three yards then you know there are problems. It will also be a worry that the line, which looked like being a strength of the defence going into the season was only able to get one sack against a team that had been struggling in protection for chunks of the season.

If the Dolphins defence was a worry, then their offence was surprisingly anaemic under the attention of Adam Gase who was seen as a solution to Ryan Tannehill’s problems. However, for large stretches they had gained less yards than AJ Green on his own, and if it hadn’t been for the desperate throw to Kenny Stills that yielded a seventy-four yard touchdown then things would have been properly embarrassing as this play accounted for a third of the Dolphins offence. The real problem here was that the Dolphins offensive line was missing Mike Pouncey and with tackles playing guard for them they were not match for the Bengals’ defensive line. It is really not often that you see a guard just blocked backwards into his quarterback for a sack as happened to Jermon Bushrod, but this is what happens when you play a career tackle at guard against one of the best interior pass rushers in Geno Atkins. I don’t want to put too much criticism on Adam Gase as the Dolphins don’t seem to like picking guards in the draft, but unless they can sort their offensive line problems then they are likely to keep having problems.

The Bengals defence had one bad play in this game, resulting in a long touchdown, and then were pretty dominant for the rest of the game. This started with the defensive line, which brought relentless pressure and largely bottled up the Dolphin’s running game whilst racking up five sacks against the pass. The Dolphins were never able to sustain drives, and apart from the sacks, the Bengals defence managed to force a fumble out of Tannehill and picked him off once. The return of Vontaze Burfict allowed them to rotate their linebackers more, and Burfict was talking after the game about being frustrated at not getting an interception but getting his game legs back under him. The defence has been strong for the Bengals all season, and has kept them in all the games they have played so far this season, if things did slip in the fourth quarter against the Bronocs.

The Bengals will be relieved to get out of a tricky start to the season 2-2 given that they’re still trying to get all the new offensive players on the same page, but they will need to as they push on into October. The defence should keep them in games, but things will need to develop if they are to push on for the playoff win that that they are so desperate for.

The Dolphins problems continue and they are struggling as much against the construction of their roster as they are the opposition. There is talent on this team, but it is very unevenly distributed across the roster, and until they address this I fear it will be hard for any coach, no matter how good they are, to turn this franchise into one that wins regularly.

Rams, Broncos, and Special Preseason Week 3 Guests the Miami Dolphins

28 Sunday Aug 2016

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We are twelve days away from the start of the 2016 season, and the preseason week three games where the starters will see the most game time have already started. I will take you through the remaining week two games I have watched, as well as the visit of the Atlanta Falcons to Dan’s Miami Dolphins taking in my quarterback curse and general thoughts.

There is always a ton of news at this time of year, each team still has ninety players on its roster until the Tuesday deadline for cuts down to seventy-five. There are injuries, worries about the team, and a lot of fan angst as the positivity of the offseason hits the stark reality of playing games in the NFL. Already the Buffalo Bills are struggling with injury to numerous players as Rex Ryan’s team seem to beset by difficulty as they approach the season.

Meanwhile, Tony Romo has a fractured vertebrae in his back, meaning that Cowboys fans will be getting an extend look at whether Dak Prescott can be a starter in the NFL as Romo is not expected back until mid-season. Prescott’s play so far would give some confidence, but it is always best to treat play in the preseason with a healthy amount of scepticism. You will hear people talk about vanilla plans in preseason, but that’s overstating things somewhat. However, coaches have teams work on what they want to work on, so blitz heavy teams will blitz as they will be getting ready for the season. What is not happening, is the detailed team specific game planning that goes into every regular season game, and so whilst flashing in preseason is definitely an encouraging sign, the test, and particularly for quarterbacks, is whether you can adjust and counter what your opposition put in place to specifically stop you. Any player that demonstrates a weakness in their game can expect to see a heavy dose of whatever counters or exposes it until said player can show that they have cleared it up.

So on to the games as I get myself into season shape with game watching, and hopefully step up the number of articles next week.

The LA Rams managed to get a second win hosting the Kansas City Chiefs despite going in down at half time again. In fact, things got off to a bad start for them as they gave up a touchdown on the opening drive of the game for a second game in a row. For those watching Hard Knocks, you will have seen Alec Ogletree’s frustration  as well as him fighting to get the first team defence lined up correctly. That said, the Rams had a good response with Case Keenum leading the Rams’ offence straight back up the field to score a touchdown, although the plaudits ought to go to Todd Gurley who ran the ball effectively and scored the equalising touchdown. The coaches had seen enough and pulled Gurley from the game before he could get hurt.

The Rams defence then stiffened to get the ball immediately on a three and out, giving the offence the ball. The Rams moved the ball well again, with Case Keenum passing to Pharoh Cooper for a go ahead touchdown and so Keenum was finished for the game.

The big question for Rams quarterback Jared Goff is when will he be ready, but whilst the coaching staff are seeing progress, they also are stating that you can see rookie mistakes, and given that on his first two plays Goff threw an incomplete pass, then was sacked and fumbled the ball, you can see what they mean. That said, he did finish the game completing eight of his twelve attempts for eighty-two yards and threw his first touchdown as a professional to running back Malcolm Brown.

We will have to see how this team fare on the road, and how much momentum the Rams can carry into the regular season, but if nothing else, their attendance has been huge so far and they will want to make the most of the interest by winning games if they are to make the transition to LA successful.

Following a week one win, the Broncos lost their second game of preseason as they welcomed the San Francisco 49ers to Denver.

It feels like there is only one question hanging over the Broncos this offseason, despite the loss of some players on defence, and all the usual roster skirmishes, the big question for this team is who is going to start at quarterback.

For the second week in a row, I sat watching a Broncos starting quarterback thinking that this might work out and they threw an interception. This week it was Trevor Siemian that I managed to retroactively curse, but it is a big step that he got the start and looks to be making a strong case to be the opening night starter. Certainly Mark Sanchez didn’t help his cause by losing two fumbles. In fact, it may even be possible that he is being pressurised by rookie project Paxton Lynch who threw two touchdowns and an interception, although he does still look like a rookie and held onto the ball a bit too long for my liking at times. There was even some talk on commentary about giving Lynch the start next week to see if has the goods, but I would suggest it is a little early for such a move, yet I do feel that Trevor Siemian could well be the starter come week one.

The Broncos starting defence looks good, and even if the team did lose this game, I do think the Broncos are going to have another strong based on another good year on defence, and a run game that looks better than last year with CJ Anderson looking in good shape already and strong players behind him that could make for a good rotation to support an inexperienced quarterback.

The Broncos played the Rams last night, and I look forward to seeing how they went over the next couple of days. As a result of this fixture I had an extra game that I could watch, and Dan asked me to take a look at the Dolphins, who conveniently hosted the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night.

I still have questions about the way the Miami Dolphins have approached their offseason, and in particular how they are building their offensive line given that of the three interior linemen that started the game, all of them are inexperienced and/or changing permission. However, new Dolphins head coach Adam Gase is a quality offensive coordinator who got the Dolphins job off the back of good work with Jay Cutler and Peyton Manning.

The Dolphins started the game playing no huddle offense, and did look to be making good use of Ryan Tannehill skills, moving him with roll outs, running the ball, and passing. However, he again fell to the, I think this going to be good Gee curse, and as soon as I thought how good he looked, Tannehill immediately threw an interception.

However, the Dolphins ran out pretty convincing winners in this game, thanks to an ability to move the ball and a defence that restricted the Falcons all game and didn’t allow a touchdown.

There are questions at running back with Jay Ajayi battling health problems, Arian Foster looking good but at age thirty and a recent history of injuries you probably can’t rely on him all season. I do however like Damien Williams who has caught my eye before, but who has never broken out, yet in this game he had a couple of nice runs and scored a touchdown.

My worry for the Dolphins is the depth, and whilst I like what I saw, the defence still seems to be thin past the starters, and I’m not sure about the secondary barring Reshad Jones who is a really good safety.

I did like the look of second year defensive end Julius Warmsley who got a sack and showed good penetration on a couple of other plays, but whether this will be enough to get him off the practice squad and onto the roster only time will tell. Fellow second year end Cleyon Leign also got a quarterback hit from a lovely spin move playing inside at tackle in the fourth quarter. However, even if the line play is better this season for the defence, the back seven is where the questions are and without access coaching tape in preseason, it is hard to know for sure how they will fare given how much you can see them play. Certainly, whilst unable to score touchdowns, Falcons backup Matt Schaub looked pretty good completing ten of eleven passes against the backup secondary.

Overall, I expect the Dolphins to be better than last season as they will have a more coherent plan on offence, after the muddle that was last year’s experience with two head coaches, but I think they will continue to be hampered by how the roster is constructed. I do wish them well if only to cheer Dan up next season, I still remember how much it hurts for your team to miss the playoffs for a number of year even if the Bengals have had a better run of it recently.

Time is running out for players to make the roster, and with the regular season just around the corner, it’s nearly time for the games that count, although you try telling a player who is fighting to get on a roster that the remaining preseason games are meaningless.

The season is nearly here, and football already is.

Week 13 Amateur Adventures in Film

13 Sunday Dec 2015

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Dan asked me to take a look at Ryan Tannehill’s performance for this week’s adventures in film to see what was going on in his eighty-six passing yards game against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 13.

The first thing to say is that Dan Campbell wasn’t kidding when he talked about committing to the run, with twenty-six rush attempts to nineteen passing attempts. Not only that, but because of the lack of consistency in the running game, Tannehill faced a lot of third and longs so it hardly surprising that the Dolphins only managed to gain four first downs in thirteen attempts on third down. In fact they didn’t manage to maintain any drives into the opponent’s red zone, with the only scoring play coming from a thirty-eight yard pass by Tannehill.

Looking at Tannehill’s play on passing downs, it was noticeable that they were limiting the things he had to do. He basically either threw play-action passes from under centre, or threw out of shotgun formations with a slightly skippy gather phase before throwing. It was also noticeable that he was either throwing short passes or long bombs with very little in the intermediate range. Even when he did connect on a six yard pass to Jarvis Landry on a hitch pattern, he missed a very similar throw to Dion Sims on the next down to bring the Dolphins punting unit out once again. The one really good play he had was the long touchdown when he came of the play-action fake and was able to gather, look left across the field to send the single high safety left, then came back to DeVante Parker running deep on the right to complete the touchdown pass. The ball was thrown up high for the six foot three Parker to go get, and he was able to high point the ball and hold onto it as he fell into the end zone. There were short passes that worked as well, but it is hard to say much more as there isn’t that much on tape in this game.

It’s hard to comment on his footwork in the drop as he really didn’t do any traditional three, five, or seven step drops. His arm doesn’t exactly leap of the screen either, which is not necessarily the end of the world as arm strength is one of the most overrated qualities of NFL quarterbacks as they need enough on the ball to get there, but it is really the mental aspects of the game that truly let a quarterback succeed or not. The Dolphins don’t appear to be asking him to do too much in terms of manipulating the game, but equally I only saw him take off on a read-option play once, which went for eleven yards despite Tannehill running the ball being a feature of last year’s improvements. He also suffered a few drops, particularly on the opening play of the second drive when Lamar Miller somehow failed to gather in a perfectly fine pass to him as he ran out of the backfield. You know you are in for a long day when a simple pass designed to get you a completion fails.

In the end, it’s hard to get too much of a read on a quarterback when so much in the offence is going wrong. Tannehill will be going into another offseason of upheaval, but along with what you assume will be a new coaching staff, he’ll be hoping that the front office strengthens his offensive line, and finally gives him  bit of stability so he has a fair short of developing. The jury is still out, and with the way the Dolphins are run, it could be difficult for Tannehill to succeed long term in the NFL.

Thoughts on Linebackers and Safeties

10 Thursday Dec 2015

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The league is heading into the final quarter with only a number of teams still in the hunt for the playoffs, although things are beginning to settle. Even so, teams that are completely out of the playoff race are still generating plenty of headlines.

The Cleveland Browns on/off dalliance with Johnny Manziel being there starting quarterback only further demonstrates the dysfunction at the top of this franchise. There are rumours flying round of conflict between those who want Manziel to start, and those for whom he has already burned his bridges with. You can see how a coaching staff that will want to be getting hired again next year if they can’t secure their jobs this year, a coaching staff who want to win games, could come into conflict with a front office group who need to know what they have in an their first round pick from two years ago and whether it is time to move on already. The problem is that with the turnover in both coaches and front office staff, it is very hard to establish a culture and go through the process it takes to turn around a franchise in trouble, and very often it seems like when a team is turned into a success, this improvement is built off the back of previous regime’s work. That said, there has been such a carousel at quarterback and staff at the Browns that it is hard to know when things will turn round.

I don’t want to pile on to the poor Browns so I’ll stop using them as an example, but I did want to pick up on a couple of things from listening to the Ross Tucker podcast this week, without turning the column into an advert, and also tie this in with tonight’s exciting game between the Cardinals and the Vikings.

On his usual Wednesday spot, regular guest Andrew Brandt was speaking about why he was a fan of Chip Kelly, and specifically talked about him as an agent of change, and that this was a rare thing in a lot of aspects in coaching. This could be seen as a curious concept given how often we hear about coaching innovations, but it seems that very often what we hear described as innovation is in fact a new wrinkle or a variation on a concept. Spread offences and pass first offences are not a new concept, but the sophistication of modern schemes is, however equally you will hear from retired players that the technique at certain positions is in decline and that this could be due to the reduced amount of time that coaches get to work with their players, particularly in the more physical drills. I don’t want to delve too far into this, but what it did get me thinking about was that if you compare the sophistication with which coaches and management are dealing with the way that a football team is constructed and plays, versus the way the media breaks down the roster then maybe we are missing a trick or two.

There was a great discussion between Ross Tucker and Greg Cosell today about tonight’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings, and the bit that grabbed me was their discussion about Deone Bucannon who Cosell described as a 210 Ibs linebacker, although he’s listed on the Cardinals’ website as safety. Now they were talking about whether this was the future of the position, these what would be traditionally undersized linebackers who could cover and cope in this age of spread defences. One of the reasons I love Cosell is he’ll always state when hasn’t seen something or can’t speak on it, but also how he’ll remained balanced, and he countered Rot Tucker’s question on how much you needed heft at the point of attack these days with the way the league is going by saying that this is not absolutely the case and let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I don’t want to get pick holes with either of them as they both know more about football than me, the podcast can be found here, but it did get me thinking.

Firstly, this weekend I am going back to look at the coaching tape from last week’s Ravens @ Dolphins game as Dan would like me to take a look at Ryan Tannehill’s performance. Next week I think I will take a look at the Cardinal’s use of Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu as I’ve been meaning to look at the Cardinals use of extra DBs in there defence for a while.

Secondly, the conversation about the future got me thinking again about linebacker groups, and something I have thought about before concerning them and the use of specialist safeties. I’ll apologise for bringing things back to the Bengals, but they are the team I watch week in and out, so in this case it easier to demonstrate what I am talking about by using them as an example in discussing the analysis of roster construction and how we talk about building a team.

In the offseason linebacker was one of the areas of concern for the Bengals as they had been banged up last season, had really struggled to defend the run when Rey Maualuga was out injured, plus Vontaze Burfict who had really come into his own was also injured and would be coming of microfracture surgery going into this season. The Bengals approach wasn’t to go out and secure a high price starting linebacker in free agency or draft a linebacker high, but neither was it to fill their roster with a middle linebacker, weak and strong side backers and then backups. Instead they drafted a linebacker, signed AJ Hawk as a free agent and resigned Maualuga. I know some were not sure about this approach, or what they did with the defensive line, but what was clever is that they built themselves a group with a set of complimentary skills and gave themselves depth. They have the ability to rotate their linebackers to have the right players for the job depending on who they are playing. Facing a team who power run up the gut, then that offence is going to have to deal with Rey Maualuga in the A gap, but if you’re facing a spread offence then you can drop into a nickel defence with the extra db, but also with a speedy linebacker like Emmanuel Lamur to help cover those linebackers who cause all those matchup problems.

For me this is an area where teams could innovate, that tweener safety/linebacker that so often was a concern in the draft, could become the new tool to help cover those nightmare tight ends and help deal with spread concepts. However, I’m wary of saying that is will become the new way of doing things. Sure you may have some lighter starters, but with this age of injury and increased difficulty for defences, maybe there is an edge to be found in crafting a linebacker group to have multiple types of player designed to rotate snaps in different amounts depending on the situation. I don’t think the days of the run stuffing middle linebacker are over, but possibly gone are the days when they are the star of the defence and play a lot of snaps, but if the balance in the NFL tips too far towards speed defences, then you can bet your bottom dollar that someone will start running power running games with success.

So I shall look forward to take a close look at the defence of the Cardinals as we go back into my picks competition with Dan, who slipped further behind again last week.

Gee:    Week 13   10-6            Overall   101-91
Dan:    Week 13   8-8              Overall   92-100

Vikings @ Cardinals (-7.5)

This is a really bad spot for the Vikings as they will be missing three starters on defence again this week, and the last thing they really need it so be travelling from Minnesota to Arizona to face a Cardinals team that is going from strength to strength. I would usually expect this to be a closer game, but with the match ups and timing favouring the Cardinals I am going to back them to cover this in a game I’m really looking forward to.

Gee ‘s Pick:   Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

NFL Dolphins @ Patriots Recap

01 Sunday Nov 2015

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I was really looking forward to this game, and whilst it did not turn into the contest that I hoped it would, there was still plenty of interesting things to see in this game.

The Dolphins may have lost a one sided game, but I thought their defence did a credible job, although you wouldn’t know it from the numbers. The Dolphins made the Patriots punt the ball six times, including a couple of short drives, and stood tough. They were able to get pressure on Brady with a pair of sacks, six quarter back hits, and they were able to affect Tom Brady more often than these numbers suggest. However, in the end they Patriots were able to work out what matchups favoured them, and the Dolphins defence got very little help from their offence.

The Patriots offence focused more on running the ball more than they did last week, but that was not exactly a difficult task. However, they still relied on Brady leading their pass attack to move the ball. He threw for three hundred and fifty-six yards and four touchdowns completing twenty-six of thirty-eight attempts. His usual targets led the team with Rob Gronkowski catching six balls for one hundred and thirteen yards and a touchdown whilst Julian Edelman caught seven for eighty-one yards and two touchdowns. However, the player that really caught the eye was Dion Lewis who the Dolphins struggled to cover out of the backfield all game and who gave them fits whenever he had the ball in space. It’s is hard to look so much quicker than other players in the NFL, but Lewis managed it and the Patriots certainly were able to use this at key spots to keep the ball moving. For his touchdown Lewis caught a short little dump off pass, but was able to run it in before the Dolphins who had all covered deeper receivers were able to react.

This was the real difference between the two offences in this game as whilst the Patriots offensive weapons were utilised in key spots, the Dolphins were unable to get their own into the game at the right moments. There we some good individual plays, but no one was able to stand out when required and once again the Dolphins got away from the run earlier than they would have wanted. Part of this is likely that they only managed fifteen yards from thirteen attempts, but a major part of their problems late in the game was having got behind in the first half, they spent too much time in defined passing formations, allowing the Patriots to rush the passer without fearing the run. This only served to highlight that the Dolphins’ offensive line is simply not that good in pass protection and they got caught out by simple blitzes and rushes when they were in multi receiver sets. As a consequence Tannehill was sacked five times, and whilst he threw some nice passes, he also threw a pair of interceptions. The commentators were talking about how the Dolphins needed to leverage Tannehill’s talent better in the passing game, but I think some of that is having balance in the offence. Gone are the days of running the ball to setup the pass as the base of your offence, if this even existed, you are more likely to setup the run with the pass by forcing the defence to respect your deep ball. In reality for most teams what you need is the balance to make the defence have to respect both eventualities, and be able to offer some level of deception. The Dolphins were not able to do that in this game and it cost them as too often it was all to obvious that is was another pass attempt that was coming.

The Patriots defensive strength is in their front seven these days, and this was easy to see with the way they shut down the Dolphins run game and got after Ryan Tannehill. They managed five sacks and ten quarterbacks in this game, with sacks being spread between ends Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich, with linebacker Dont’a Hightower and DB Devin McCourty also getting in on the act. The Dolphins were not able to move the ball consistently in this game and were frequently in poor field position, and the Patriots defence kept making plays when their offence did stumble. It is not often that you see a defence give up less than twenty yards in the run game, and yet the Patriots have been on both sides of it in their last two. However, they chose not to run the ball last week, where as it looked like they forced the Dolphins not to in this one.

The Dolphins came into this game with momentum after appointing their new coach, but this game was a dose of realism. The improved intensity may have helped against the two poor AFC South teams that they faced in the last two weeks, but they needed more in this game. They were unable to lean on their running game as they have since Dan Campbell took charge, and in the end were simply not able to get enough going on offence to keep up with the Patriots in this one. The worry would be that the problems on offence looked familiar in terms of play calling, I plan to ask Dan about that on the podcast this week.

The Patriots just keep rolling this season. On paper the defence looks thin in the secondary, but clearly this hasn’t hurt them so far and looking at the schedule they don’t appear to be facing any offences that would make them worry unduly. In this game Bill Belichick was able to take away the part of the Dolphins offence that had got them going again, whilst the offence continues to play well. This may not be the most terrifying of Tom Brady’s offences, but he has more than enough weapons to keep the ball moving through the air and looks as good as ever.

I was hoping to go through the coaching tape of the Eagles visiting the Panthers, but the travel to go see the final London NFL game is going to get in the way. Time to go see some live football in person.