Tag Archives: Leonard Fournette

Reacting to the Reaction

19 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

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Obviously the most important thing in the NFL last week wasn’t my terrible week of picks, but I fell into a common enough trap for fans (and boy am I kicking myself as I even referred to it when making picks) so as the dust settles on the week let’s take a look at what we can tell.

The mistake I made was reading too much into the week one scores and I said it was more likely that a team be 1-1 than 2-0 or 0-2 but as I said last week, as far as I’m concerned fans of the Bills, Giants, Lions, Texans, Raiders, Cardinals and Seahawks may now officially panic.

The Seahawks have the excuse of being on the road for both games so far but their offence is really struggling, the defence is changing, and so far the bright spot may be the Australian punter who tried drop-kick kickoff (it was a bad week for kickers as Vikings and Browns fans will attest). Some team’s troubles you could see coming like the Bills and the Cardinals, and there was plenty of talk about the Texans offensive line before they underwhelmed against a Tennessee Titans team quarterbacked by Blaine Gabbert.

Another team who are in an unexpected position is the winless Pittsburgh Steelers who still have Le’Veon Bell holding out and had Antonio Brown tweet out trade me to find out regarding a post about how Ben Roethlisberger had made him and also wasn’t there on Monday. Teams can get off to a bad start but this is not the kind of things you usually see in Pittsburgh and it seems like cracks are beginning to show in that team.

The strains in New England offence are obviously being felt as the Patriots have traded for Josh Gordon after the Cleveland Browns finally lost patience with the troubled receiver, apparently after he hurt his hamstring in a photoshoot. I have no idea if the change of scene and the famously strict Patriot approach will help the player but addiction issues are not simple and on a human level I just hope he finds a way to make use of his talents and be in a good place.

Meanwhile the strain was too much for Vontae Davis who retired at half of the Bills heavy loss to the LA Chargers. It’s not something I’ve seen before and there has been those supporting his decision and very vocal players upset by an action they take as quitting. I actually have sympathy with both points of view as in a sport as dangerous as the NFL that requires a physical commitment if you don’t have it, you don’t belong out there but if you’ve dressed for the game don’t you owe it to your team to get to the end as there are only so many corners.

Looking for more positive stories, the Kansas City Chiefs continue to have the most dynamic offence in the league, unsurprisingly toping the offensive DVOA stat thanks to the explosive skills players they have assembled and Patrick Mahomes’s stellar talent, which has allowed Andy Reid to pretty much do what he wants with the office. Even less expected is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offence is ranked second by DVOA as Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to do his best to keep the quarterback job whilst Jameis Winston is suspended. In Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson the Buccaneers have one of the league’s better receiving duos if their quarterback can get them the ball and if you haven’t seen it, watch the clip of tight end OJ Howard running in a seventy-five yard touchdown. Tight end is one of those positions that due to the complexity it often takes time for young players to adjust, but he has amazing speed for the position and could be the next tight end threat to terrify defences.

The Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Patriots without their Pro Bowl running back Leonard Fournette but it was the much maligned Blake Bortles who took advantage of an aggressive game plan to throw for over three hundred and fifty yards with four touchdowns to one interception. If they can maintain a balance of improved offence to go alongside their frightening defence then they could very well go one better than last season and make it to the Super Bowl.

In my drive to document all safeties we had our first of the season when the Kansas City Chiefs visited the Pittsburgh Steelers and it demonstrates why special teams and the phases working together wins football games. The Steelers Jordan Berry sent a fifty-nine yard punt to the Chiefs’ one yard line, pinning them by the goal line that after an aggressive pass play on first down, led to Kareem Hunt being tackled in the end zone. Maybe a small part of me would have liked to see a quarterback get sacked but this is the essence of football, a game of territory where even if you don’t directly score, you created an opportunity that results in two points and you getting the ball back in good field position.

Speaking of sack, and the final thing I will round up this week. I think there’s been a lot of entertaining football so far this season, even if not all of the prime time games have been the ones to demonstrate this, but whilst we have fun offences and potentially good young quarterbacks to enthuse about, there’s also the familiar issues surrounding the rule tweaks. Despite the worry ahead of the season being around the lowering the head hitting rules, these haven’t been called that much or caused that many issues and the two bad quarterback hits I have seen have been in open play when the quarterback slides and the hit to Cam Newton just looks bad. The actual problem call has been the new landing on the quarterback rules. This essentially cost the Packers a game when Clay Matthews was called for roughing the passer despite making a pretty much textbook form tackle of Kirk Cousins. Now I get why after Aaron Rodgers’ injury last season, and given how much the league is hurt whenever one of their marquee quarterbacks get injured, that the league doesn’t want their quarterbacks being driven into the ground by three hundred pound defensive linemen but there’s only so much a defender can do and if we’re going to start penalising tackling as opposed to dangerous play then we are going to see ridiculous scorelines. They won’t change the rule now and I wonder if even the instructions to the refs will change given that I suspect what the league is worried about is keeping the quarterbacks on the field. I hope I’m wrong.

So on to the next week where we’ll get to see if the Browns can finally get that win having been competitive twice, if the remaining undefeated teams can remain so, and I can keep testing my search of pro-football-reference.com that should make sure I don’t miss any safeties this season.

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AAF: Jaguars’ Offence

31 Wednesday Jan 2018

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film, Playoffs

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For this particular amateur adventure in film I took a look a look at the Jacksonville Jaguars loss to the New England Patriots and specifically looked at what was going on with Jaguars’ offence.

For most of this game the Jaguars held a somewhat surprising lead and there has been some question about the play calling with some suggesting the Jaguars got too conservative. We can’t know what discussions were taking place on the side-line but having gone through the tape I can see how this accusation of being too conservative can be made.

The Jaguars are a self-declared run first team but they do use a mix of 11 personnel as well as two/three tight end groupings to go along with their running backs. One interesting wrinkle the Jaguars used several times was to have two running backs lined up in variations of shotgun with either both running backs stood next to Blake Bortles or to have Corey Grant flexed out as a slot receiver. The Jaguars did use plenty of more traditional two back sets with a fullback but this is not where the real issue seemed to come for the Jaguars in the run game. The single back formation seemed to work fine for running the ball, but when Bortles was in shotgun with just one running back stood next to him the Jaguars seemed to struggle to run the ball effectively and there were two stretches in this game where they predominantly ran on first and second down.

The one that everyone is talking about is in the fourth quarter but this play calling conservatism actually started in the second quarter. During the Jaguars fourth drive they start out with 21 personnel lined up in shotgun and Leonard Fournette ran up the middle for a small loss. The rest of the drive consisted of seven consecutive plays out of a one back shotgun formation that yield another three runs on first or second down, one completed third and long with a really good throw by Bortles, another third down completion by Bortles that was a good throw but was ruled out due to them not getting the play off in time, and a third down sack where Bortles scrambled to bide time and couldn’t convert.

After this drive the Jaguars then proceeded to give up a touchdown to the Patriots offence before demonstrating even more conservatism at the end of the first half when with fifty seconds left on the clock they knelt twice to get to half time. The end of halves are absolutely a time when you can get an edge by taking advantage of a possession to stretch a lead or close a gap, particularly if you are getting the ball at the start of the third quarter, but the Jaguars chose not to take advantage of this.

The third quarter started with a sustained Jaguars’ drive that led to a field goal, their next drive was a quick series and out, before they were able to drive the ball from their own nine yard line to get their final points with a field goal early in the fourth quarter and then the single back shotgun runs started in earnest again.

So if two stretches of conservative play calling  with only run plays being called on first and second down played a part in losing the Jaguars the game, what got the offensive moving in the first place? The answer is a balanced offence that used play action on first and second down as well as mixing in drop back throws. The Jaguars used the same action on multiple play where the first play was a play action pass, and then later on they used the same motion but actually handed the ball off to Fournette. Blake Bortles protected the ball for this game and made some nice throws, but there were one or two he simply missed and in the end he couldn’t make the kind of top quality plays the Jaguars needed to get over the top and win this game. That said, if the Jaguars had been a little more adventurous on first and second down at the end of both halves then with just a few more points they could have won this game. There were stretches when they successfully attacked the outside of the Patriots defence with both run and pass, which makes the runs up the middle in the conservative stretches so frustrating as they helped the Patriots defence slowly squeeze the Jaguars so that when at the end of the game, the Jaguars desperately needed Bortles to win the game, he couldn’t do it.

Some will argue that you can’t win with Bortles, and that he is not good enough to justify a nineteen million dollar contract next year. I’m not sure you can’t sign him up for a more reasonable number over a few years and see what you can develop behind him. I think the playoff experience will do Bortles some good but that if the Jaguars want to take another step next season, they need to play better situational football and try to apply pressure with their offence rather than simply limit Bortles mistakes. It’s not like he is suddenly going to turn into Tom Brady or Drew Brees, but in a league that is very short handed for quarterbacks I can see how a more aggressive approach with taking significantly more risks would better complement the Jaguars’ already impressive defence and who knows then what is possible?

I’m going to sneak in one little comment to show both what Bortles is capable of, but also to highlight an interesting wrinkle I saw from the Patriots ahead of their Super Bowl matchup. In the third quarter on third and eight, the Jaguars lined up in shotgun with 11 personnel and number 11 Marquise Lee in the slot. When Lee motions from the right side of the formation to the opposite side, Patriots defensive back Eric Rowe follows him, which often indicates man coverage. The fun thing is that when the ball is snapped, Rowe immediately rushes the passer, but Bortles was able drop back enough to throw the ball to running back TJ Yeldon who had come through the line and they got the first down. It was a good play from Bortles, but I loved the little detail on the coaching film, which is why I do this in the first place.

Roll on the Eagles offence against the Vikings and then the Super Bowl!

Conference Championship Games

21 Sunday Jan 2018

Posted by in Playoffs

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

This weekend’s games start with the boisterously confident Jaguars travelling to face a Patriots team who seem as buttoned down as ever despite the ESPN story that broke about tensions between the owner, his head coach and their half of fame quarterback.

The Patriots made short work of the Titans last week and have seemed destined for the AFC championship game for most of the season. The defence may have struggled early in the season and finished ranked thirty-first by DVOA but they also gave up the fifth fewest points in the regular season and look to be good enough when paired with the number one offence in the league. Lots of people are familiar with the Bill Belichick’s defensive approach of taking away what a team does best and you imagine that they will be focussing on stopping the run and making Blake Bortles beat them with his arm. We could even see them focussing on containing Bortles in the pocket as Belichick acknowledged his running ability, although you can’t exactly rely on what little information you get out of a Belichick press conference.

On the other side of the ball the numbers still seem to be there for Tom Brady who has had a couple of niggling injuries this season and had another scare this week when he jammed his hand in practise. There has been a lot of speculation regarding Brady’s hand but the reports are that he sustained a cut to his thumb in practice and that has had to be stitched, but Brady practised Friday and should start the game. The big mismatch for the Patriots’ offence will be Gronkowski as it usually is, but they will face a stern test from the best defence in the league by DVOA. If there is a formula for beating Brady in the playoffs it involves being able to get pressure with four and good coverage. The Jaguars have the players to do this but the Patriots are likely to use bigger personnel packages to challenge the defence and take advantage of a rush defence that finished the regular season ranked twenty-sixth by DVOA.

The Jaguars come into this game full of confidence having won their first two playoff games in a long time but their defence whilst ranking number one in pass defence by DVOA, only ranks twentieth against tight ends and fifteenth against running backs when looking at DVOA against specific types of receiver. The Jaguars already have a tendency to rush four and cover as mentioned above, but if they can’t stop Brady finding his tight ends and running backs then we know Brady has the patience and skill to keep picking up short gains and drive the length of the field to score.

The offence for the Jaguars looked much better last week and they used play action well to get Bortles throws he is comfortable with. A lot will rest on Leonard Fournette’s ankle and whether he can play as he did in the first quarter of last week’s game. That said, whilst TJ Yeldon is a very different running back that might lack the power of Fournette to take on stacked fronts, he proved effective catching the ball against the Steelers and had three times for fifty-seven yards giving him the most receiving yards in the game. If Bortles can continue to spread the ball around like he did last week then the Jaguars might be able to eke out the points they need, but you have to think that he will facing a Patriots defence that will be disciplined in their run defence, focussing on not allowing Bortles to scramble as well as the running backs, and try to make Bortles beat them by making accurate throws into tight windows.

I think that most people would still give the edge to the Patriots but the Jaguars faced that last week as well and they are probably the team the Patriots least wanted to face given their resemblance to other teams that have beaten them in the post-season in the past. It should be a fascinating game.

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

The NFC conference game pits the first seed Eagles against the second seed Vikings who finished the season with the same 13-3 record and who were the fourth and fifth ranked teams by DVOA at the end of the regular season.

The Eagles eked out a win last week against the Falcons on the back off a controlled offence performance and a defence that kept the Falcons from getting two hundred yards passing or one hundred yards rushing. The Eagles defence finished the season ranked fifth in the league by DVOA and were top ten against both the run and the pass. The strength of the defence is their line and in Fletcher Cox they have one of the best interior linemen in the league. They will try to pressure the Vikings and will need to as their secondary could struggle to contain the Vikings’ excellent receivers.

However, if the Eagles are to win this game then their offence has to do a job with their backup quarterback. The game plan last week was to run the ball to control the game and give Nick Foles the kind of throws he can make to win the game. They may have only scored fifteen points with one touchdown and run the ball eighty-six yards but it was enough for them to the win. In Nick Foles they have a backup with a lot more experience than most and whilst no one expects him to replicate the amazing form he had for one year under Chip Kelly, the Eagles have proved they can be competitive with him. However, they are facing a fearsome defence that is co-ordinated by one of the best defensive minds in the game.

The Vikings defence finished the season ranked second in the league by DVOA and excellent players at all three levels of the defence. They may show blitz a lot with Mike Zimmer’s trademark double A gap look where two linebackers line up on the defensive line from where they can then blitz or drop into coverage. Unlike the Jaguars’ number one unit, the Vikings are pretty evenly balanced against the run and the pass so this scheme matchup of Zimmer against Doug Pederson and his offensive staff should be an intriguing schematic battle.

The Vikings offence has played remarkably well when you consider that they have lost both a starting quarterback and running back. Still, Case Keenum has been playing since week two of the regular season and has had a really productive break out season culminating in a last second win last week. He is ably helped by one of the best pairings of receivers in the league and the Eagles will have their work cut out to cover both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. The Vikings may not run the ball brilliantly, in fact they only ranked seventeenth by DVOA, but they do it often and well enough for it to enable their play fakes to be effective and so they will try to keep the Eagles defence guessing.

The Vikings will be without their home field advantage but were competitive on the road and I think have a slight edge in this game with the Eagles not having Carson Wentz. However, if the Eagles stay in this game the Philadelphia crowd will make life very difficult and this could be a very close game.