Tag Archives: Derek Henry

2020 Wildcard Sunday

10 Sunday Jan 2021

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Here are my thoughts about the second wave of games this Wildcard weekend.

Baltimore Ravens (5th) @ Tennessee Titans (4th)

The Sunday games start with what will be a bruising encounter that pits Derrek Henry and the Titan’s fourth ranked offence by DVOA against the Ravens’ ninth ranked defence, with the Titans hoping to have enough success to offset their twenty-ninth ranked by DVOA defence and twenty-eighth ranked special teams.

The Tennessee offence is clearly impressive, with Derrek Henry rushing for two thousand yards and Ryan Tannehill throwing for well over three and a half thousand passing yards. They might be a bit conservative in terms of rushing on early downs, but the throwback run/pass ratio works because of Henry and sets up their play-action passing game. I think there could well be more efficiency for the Titans in throwing more on first and second down, but in the Ravens they face a team that have their own run-based offence. After a stretch of season where the Ravens looked out of sync following the Covid-19 outbreak and were still adjusting to personnel changes over the off-season the Ravens started to look dangerous again and finished the season with five straight wins. Their running game starts with the option running game where Lamar Jackson is so dangerous and he ran for one thousand yards from the quarterback position at an average of over six yards per carry for the second straight season. The running back by committee is also working with rookie JK Dobbin looking speedy and particularly dangerous in recent weeks. The Ravens might not have a standout receiver of the quality of the Titans’ AJ Brown but Mark Andrews is one of only five tight-ends to have over seven hundred receiving yards this season and interestingly is only joined by Travis Kelce of the Chiefs in the playoffs. When you couple this offensive production with a Ravens’ defence that may not be as fierce as in recent years but is still top ten by DVOA and effective special teams then I think you have a recipe for success. There will be real concerns in Baltimore if Jackson fails to win a play-off game for a third season in a row, but with the Titans defensive worries I think the Ravens stand a good chance of winning. That said, I’m impressed with how Titans’ head coach Mike Vrabel game management so they definitely should not be written off, but I think the Titans will find it hard to match their play-off run from last season.

Chicago Bears (7th) @ New Orleans Saints (2nd)

The Bears have had an odd season where they started 5-1 without really impressing and eventually Mitchell Trubisky got pulled as the starting quarterback for Nick Foles based on performance, and then injured a shoulder running the ball as an option play while Foles continued to get the start. As the losses continued to mount Trubisky got back the starter job and just about managed to get the Bears into the playoffs, albeit with a loss against the Packers that meant they were reliant on the Rams beating the Cardinals in week seventeen. All this is to say that whilst the Bears are not the worst ranked team by DVOA to make the playoffs, it is hard to see them competing with the Saints in New Orleans. Without their vosiferous fans there won’t be the same kind of home advantage as normal for the Saints, but with all three phases of the game ranked in the top ten by DVOA it looks like the Saints are as well placed as they can be to make a deep run in the playoffs for what could be Drew Brees’ last time. It has been a difficult season for the Saints in that Drew Brees at one point had eleven broken ribs and has had real problems throwing the ball deep, whilst Michael Thomasm, their lead receiver from last season, has only played seven games and has been ineffective for longs stretches of those. Still, the Saints have a way to win, even when their entire running room was held out of their week seventeen game due to close contacts with Alvin Kamara who tested positive for Covid-19. The good news for the Saints is that Kamara and Thomas have both been cleared to play and I think they should have no problems in beating a Bears team who will have to decide if their sneaking into the play-offs is enough to keep faith with the current setup or things need changing. Of course, the Bears could win and that will make for a different decision even if it might be covering some crack from regular season but I really do think this situation is unlikely and that the Saints will go through to the divisional game for the third time in four seasons.

Cleveland Browns (6th) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3rd)

The final game of the playoff should have been full of drama as the Browns make the playoffs for the first time since the 2002 season, but continued Covid-19 positives have disrupted the last couple of weeks and prevent head coach Kevin Stefanski from coaching in this game as well as Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio from taking part in this playoff game. It is particularly rough for Bitonio, who is the longest tenured Browns player on the roster and has been through all the recent rough seasons including the one win and winless seasons. The Browns were not even able to practice until late this week and so to win on the road against the Steelers is going to be a difficult task, although not an impossible one. For much of the seasons the Steelers just kept on winning, going 11-0 despite losing their bye week to the Titans’ Covid-19 outbreak and then losing a mini-bye when their Thanksgiving game against the Ravens was also moved, this time due to the Ravens’ Covid-19 outbreak. However, the Steelers were only able to win one more game during the last five weeks of the regular season as the injuries on defence, particularly amongst the linebackers hindered that side of the ball whilst opposing defences seemed to work out the Steelers short passing game that had been so effective for the majority of the season. The Steelers’ running game has been absent for most of the season and they have not looked to push the ball down field as you might have expected given the talent they have at receiver. However, with the Steelers resting Ben Roethlisberger and other starters in their final game of the season, a game the Browns had to win to ensure they made the playoffs, the Steelers only lost by two points.

I suspect with a rested Roethlisberger and all the disruption in Cleveland that the Browns’ wait for a playoff win will go on another year, but you can’t rule out that they find a way to win somehow. It would certainly cap a remarkable turnaround under Stefanski in his first season as head coach and mean that he does get to coach a playoff game, but I think it is likely that he will have to wait another year before he can lead his team in the playoffs.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Advertisement

2020 Week Sixteen Picks

27 Sunday Dec 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Somehow my modest two correct picks over the Christmas games has seen me pick up another point on Dan, but let’s see if I can get any more and make Dan sweat a little going into the final week.

Early Games:

There are a few games from the early slate that have play-off repercussions but there is only one that looks like a real contest and that is the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Indianapolis Colts. However, even then the line could be deceiving as the Steelers have lost three straight having won their first eleven games wity the offence seeming to have been solved in recent weeks whilst the injuries at linebacker have started to really hurt the defense. The Bengals’ offence did not actually do a lot against the Steelers defense last week, but the Colts offence ranks seventeen places better by DVOA and their defense ranks nineteen places better so having seen the Steelers lose by ten to a then two win Bengals team I give the edge to the Colts this week.

Points from the rest:

  • I’m a little torn as to what to do with the Kansas City Chiefs game as whilst they have a 13-1 record, you have to go back to week eight against the Jets to find an opponent they have beat by double digits. The Atlanta Falcons have not exactly been good value recently after the minor recovery under Raheem Morris stalled, but they haven’t been beat heavily since playing the Saints in week eleven so I’m going to nervously back them to keep within eleven.
  • The Chicago Bears are in a slightly strange position of having had a mini recovery after re-inserting Mitchell Trubisky into the starting line-up but need to catch the Cardinals to get into the play-offs and likely have too many wins to draft a quarterback in the off-season. They should have enough to beat a bad Jaguars team who are currently in position to pick first in next year’s draft, but I don’t know about doing it by eight points.
  • The Bengals got a third win on Monday, but they are not a good team and whilst neither are the Texans, they should win this game although I don’t know if they can do it by ten points.
  • The New York Jets managed to avoid going winless but might have cost themselves the number one pick in next year’s draft in the process. This week they welcome a Cleveland Browns team who are making a late push to win the AFC North as the Steelers continue to slide and if things break right, the Browns could find themselves in a winner takes all divisional game in week seventeen. I don’t know if the Steelers will continue to lose, but I do expect the Browns to have eleven wins going into that final game in Pittsburgh.
  • I may have been a bit bullish on the Giants, who definitely need a lot of work on offence, but I do wonder if their defense can limit Lamar Jackson and a Ravens offence that has looked good in the last three weeks. I don’t expect the Giants to win, but keeping the deficit within twelve seems possible. That said, the Ravens have posted scores of 34, 47 and 40 in the last three weeks.

Falcons @ Chiefs (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Bears @ Jaguars (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Bengals @ Texans (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Browns @ Jets (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Colts @ Steelers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Giants @ Ravens (-11.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Late Games:

The late slate of games looks to be a lot more competitive, but the best quality matchup must be the LA Rams trying to put their loss to the Jets behind them as they travel to take on the Seattle Seahawks. This season the Rams look as well balanced as they ever have under Sean McVay, but the questions that surround Jared Goff and his ability to cope with pressure remain, making it impossible to entirely trust the Rams even if McVay has coached them to four straight winning seasons and should return to the play-offs for a third time in January. However, while the Seahawks have a game lead in the division, the Rams have a 5-2 record against them since McVay took over the Rams and as good as Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offence has been with DK Metcalf establishing himself as one of the most promising young receivers in the league, their defense still only ranks twentieth by DVOA. Given that the Seahawks have been perhaps as affected as any team in the league by the absence of their fans in a stadium designed to enhance crowd noise, I like the Rams getting the points in this one. It should be a cracking game.

Points on the Rest:

  • The LA Chargers have had some extra rest after beating the Raiders on Thursday night in week fifteen, but the only teams they have beaten by more than a field goal this season are the Jets and Jaguars. My concern in picking this game is the Broncos offence being thirty-second in the league by DVOA, but with injuries to young quaterback Drew Lock amongst others disrupting their season, I think this might be near the worst of possible outcomes for the Broncos and so I like them to cover this one.
  • The problem that Washington have right now is that with Alex Smith fighting a calf injury they have had to turn to Dwayne Haskins at quarterback and might well have to turn to him again this week despite him being fined and stripped of his captaincy for violating Covid-19 protocols when he was photographed in a club without a mask. The Panthers might not be a good team yet, and Washington’s defensive line is definitely impressive, but I can’t lay these kind of points with this level of uncertainty at quarterback.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have won two straight including scoring forty-one points against the 49ers but come into this game as underdogs thanks to a reversal in fortune for the Philadelphia Eagles after inserting rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts into their starting lineup. That said, the Eagles lost to the Cardinals last week and it is hard to know what will happen when two NFC East teams face each other. Still, the Eagles are laying a point and a half less here than I’m seeing as the consensus on line so I guess I have to take the Eagles in this one.

Broncos @ Chargers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Panthers @ Washington (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Eagles @ Cowboys (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Rams @ Seahawks (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Sunday Night Football:

Titans @ Packers (-3.5)

This is the game of the week for me as it sees two teams with double digit wins face off in a matchup that has the potential to get lopsided for both teams but could be a great contest. The weakness for the Tennessee Titans is their pass rush and facing Aaron Rodgers and the second ranked offence by DVOA this has could go horribly wrong. That said, the Packers rush defense is ranked twenty-first in rush defense by DVOA, which is surprisingly high and I could absolutely see Derek Henry dominating this game for the Titans. There may be eleven percentage points between these two teams by overall DVOA, but I think this could be a great game and the Packers defensive frailties make me just nervous enough about laying three and a half points to back the Titans. It will be ominous for the NFC if the Packers win convincingly in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Monday Night Football

Bills @ Patriots (+6.5)

Week sixteen finishes with the newly crowned AFC East Buffalo Bills getting a chance to sweep the New England Patriots and improve their chances of securing the second seed in the AFC. The New England Patriots have struggled thanks to the problems on offence and the number of Covid-19 opt outs across the team. There are going to be plenty of questions about the offence during the off-season and the Patriots will need an answer at quarterback, but there’s still part of me that worries about what Bill Belichick could scheme up to cover this line. However, the Bills have looked really good in recent weeks and if they are to deliver on the promise of the season in the play-offs then this is the kind of game they should win.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

The Second Wave Hits the NFL

02 Wednesday Dec 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Against a backdrop of second waves of Covid-19 across Europe and the United States it is not a surprise that there has been an increased affect on the NFL in recent weeks that means that I’m writing the week twelve summary post with one game left to finish as I put this post live. The Baltimore Ravens have become the second team to have a facility-based outbreak of Covid-19 and so for reasons of medical safety as much as anything the Ravens take on the Steelers on a Wednesday afternoon nearly a week after it was initially scheduled to play. I will mention the other team who had a serious Covid-19 issue later, but while the cracks are showing in the NFL’s strategy, it is holding up so far and it is clear the league are now determined to keep to their weekly schedules even if they are moving individual games around.

Still, let us start with the games I have seen before we get to the details of the schedule changes that stretch into week thirteen.

What I Saw

A slightly underwhelming pair of Thanksgiving games which saw two forty point blowouts started with the Houston Texans beating the Detroit Lions 41-25. The Lions actually moved the ball well on their opening drive and scored a touchdown to take an early lead. However, the Texans quickly answered with a pick-six touchdown from JJ Watt before the offence got in on the act with a touchdown of their own. The Lions got a second rushing touchdown from Adrian Peterson to give them their last lead of the game as the Texans soon scored another touchdown and hardly looked back. I’ve heard Greg Cosell talking about how well Deshaun Watson has been playing for a number of weeks so it was nice for him to get to demonstrate this on a national stage, but the truth is that this was not a competitive game. The Lions took what seemed like the inevitable step of firing GM Bob Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia after this latest loss and will be looking to start over again as the rebuild with Quinn and Patriicia after the firing of Jim Caldwell produced worse results. This game featured two tweams who started the season with former Bill Belichick coordinators as head coaches, but while Bill O’Brien’s actions as GM of the Texans let himself down despite a good record as head coach, from the outside it looks like Patricia’s attempt to recreate Belichick’s formula rather than create his own was his downfall. This is a pattern we have seen before with the Belichick coaching tree, and stands in contrast to the success that Brian Flores is having with Miami, but it will be interesting to see in what direction both of these franchises head come the off-season.

The second Thanksgiving game saw the Washington Football Team go to Dallas and beat the Cowboys 41-16. There have been problems with the Cowboys’ defence all season, but the offence’s struggles in this game at least could be explained as the pair of alternative tackles that were starting their second game for the Cowboys both went out injured early, reducing them to third string tackles. Throw in a poor day and a fumble from Ezekiel Elliott and it’s easy to see how this game got away. It’s not as if Ron Rivera had an easy task turning around the Football Team to start with, but his coaching through cancer treatment is frankly remarkable, and his team are playing tough football and looks to be heading in the right direction. Alex Smith is not a long term answer at quarterback but there is already talk of him coming back next season, whilst rookie running back Antonio Gibson looks to be establishing himself and finished this game with over a hundred yards rushing and three touchdowns. With the injuries on the offensive line and to Dak Prescott there is some cover for Mike McCarthy’s difficult first season, but the Cowboys are probably still under-performing in a very winnable NFC East and it is the defensive side of the ball that would worry me if I was Jerry Jones. It wouldn’t take much to get the Cowboys back in the race for the division, but even if they do drag themselves back into contention there’s going to be some serious decisions to be made in the off-season.

Continuing the theme of the NFC East, the New York Giants took a share of the division lead with their 19-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. This was more of a contest than I was expecting, with the Bengals defence stepping up to an extent but the offence was only able to generate a total of one hundred and fifty-five yards of total offence and the one touchdown drive took place late in the game against a Giants playing a prevent defence. In truth, the Giants were in control for the majority of the game, had the ball for more time and I like where their defence is headed even if the offence has its limitations with Daniel Jones at quarterback. I worry what the Bengals long term prospect are, even with Joe Burrow who is a phenomenal talented young quarterback, but Zac Taylor has not convinced me with his total of four career wins and the ugly truth is that the Bengals have not had a winning season since 2015. It feels right now like my mindset as a fan has to be a lot more like the pre-Marvin Lewis Days and I find that deeply concerning. I would love to be proved wrong, but right now I feel better about how the Giants are shaping up under first year head coach Joe Judge (and there is no shortage of questions there) than how the Bengals are building. I truly hope I am proved wrong next year and it always used to be said that you shouldn’t judge a coach until their third year. These days teams are a lot quicker to judge (except ironically the Lions) but as old school as Bengals’ owner Mike Brown is, I wonder how long he will put up with the Bengals losing now they have a franchise quarterback.

The final game I watched in it’s entirety this week was the Tennessee Titans return trip to face the Indianapolis Colts that was another forty point blow out (there have been five so far in week twelve) where the Titans won 45-26. The downfall for the Colts was that their top ten defence by DVOA, that had only given up three one-hundred yard plus rushing games going into Sunday, allowing over a hundred in the first half as the Titans amassed a total of two hundred and twenty-nine yards rushing, with one hundred and seventy-eight of them coming from Derick Henry. This efficiency on the ground let the Titans keep the game script how they wanted and they quite literally ran out easy winners. There’s still a little over of the quarter of the season to go, but after a bit of a wobble the Titans have won their last two games to take sole position of the AFC South as they prepare to host the Cleveland Browns next week. The Colts are only a game back from the Titans and are solid football team so I expect these two to be neck and neck going forward unless there is a significant change to either teams roster, which is even more possible than usual this season with Covid-19 stalking teams as well as the more traditional injuries that an NFL team face throughout a season.

What I Heard

I wanted to step away from podcast topics this week to go straight to the head coach of the Denver Broncos after they were forced to play against the New Orleans Saints on Sudnay without any one of the four quarterback on their roster being available.

The reason this happened was fairly straight forward, third string quarterback Jeff Driskel tested positive for Covid-19, which is not so unusual this season. However, all four Broncos’ quarterbacks on the team/practise squad held their own workout on Tuesday and broke the protocols enough to be deemed close contacts of Driskell. This was discovered late enough in the week that none of them had five days to register clear tests ahead of Sunday and be available to play. In fact, the news broke so late that the Broncos only had a few hours to prepare a practice squad receiver Kendall Hinton, who had played some quarterback in college, to start Sunday’s game. It is unsurprising that he only completed one of his nine passes whilst throwing two interceptions.

If there is a positive to come out of this situation, I would say it is the way Fangio handled the discussion after the game stating that he was disappointed in the players for putting the team and the league in this position, but also owning up that he had obviously hadn’t done a good enough job of selling the protocols to them, when they are on their own.

You can see him talk about this and get a snippet of Kendall Hinton discussing the game here.

What I Think

It’s seems pretty clear that the NFL are very focussed on sticking to their schedule of games in a week, even if specific games do get moved about, but at this point they are doing that for medical reasons and not those of competitive balance. The Ravens got moved because they had an outbreak and then delayed an extra day so the players could have some form of in-person workout before playing.

The Broncos however, despite asking for a delay were not granted one because although at a competitive disadvantage, were able to field a team safely from a medical point of view on Sunday.

This week the teams were only allowed to operate virtually on Monday and Tuesday because of concerns over people having out of town visitors for Thanksgiving, and against a background of a second wave of Covid-19 building as we go from autumn into winter the NFL is concerned about getting to the end of its season at it’s usual pace, trying to minimise medical issues, but not worrying about competitive balance to their usual degree.

Given that teams have been fined millions of dollars and a draft pick so far over Covid-19 protocol violations, and still teams like the Raiders have been repeat offenders, perhaps the example of the Broncos playing without a recognised quarterback will sharpen people’s focusses. I remember questioning whether entire position groups going down would delay games early in the season, and now to an extent we have our answer. Unless there is in-facility transmission the answer appears to be no, you are going to have to find a way to cope.

What I Know

I knew it was going to be an odd season, but it somehow feels like it has been going on for months and yet I still can’t quite believe that we are nearly three quarters of the way through the regular season. For all that there were problems in week twelve and as a consequence we have another Wednesday game in week thirteen, I think that if you had told the NFL that they wouldn’t have lost any games by the start of week thirteen, they would definitely have taken it.

What I Hope

It feels more relevant than ever with how the world is to hope that the NFL gets through this pandemic season with no one catching a life changing version of Covid-19. Yes, I hope the league makes it through the season, and I am grateful for football as I always am, but if we learned anything from this week it is how important following protocols are for protecting yourself from Covid-19. Whatever that means for you, I hope you stay safe. With vaccines on the horizon if we can hold things together for a few more months then there is a real chance we can get back to a lot of things we are missing, even if the world will still be a different place.

We owe it to ourselves and all we’ve lost to learn from this experience, and I hope that as we can get back into the world that we do a little better with it and each other. That feels like something worth holding on to as we head into the depths of winter.

As Seasons Turn

28 Wednesday Oct 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The NFL season feels as if is nearing the turn. We are looking at the week eight games coming up, the trade deadline is next Tuesday when the US goes to the polls (although many have already voted) and after week nine all teams will have played half of their sixteen games. It might simply be because the clocks have just gone back in the UK, but it feels as like we are properly into the autumn now, but I don’t want to wish away the year so let’s take a look at what happened in the week seven games.

What I Saw

The week seven Thursday night game was a slightly odd spectacle that saw the New York Giants fall behind the Eagles as the team from Philadelphia marched on their opening drive of the game to score a touchdown, then work their way back to take a 21-10 lead with under ten minutes left on the clock, but the Giants ultimately lost 21-22. The big talking point out of this game was Daniel Jones running for eighty yards and tripping over with no one near him only eight yards from the end zone. However, it is perhaps the play of Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz that is the most significant for the rest of the season. As I mentioned earlier, the Eagles moved the ball smartly on their opening drive, but after this initial six and a half minutes or so, Wentz looked like he was broken, trying to do to much rather than throw the ball away as the offence really struggled. Now with the injuries on the offensive line and at the skills positions there are some valid reasons for this, but it’s the stark disparity between this bad football and then Wentz finding his way in the fourth quarter to lead his team back that is confusing. Wentz finished the game with three-hundred and fifty-nine passing yards and two touchdowns to go with his interception, but he needs to find a way to lessen the lows to give his team a better chance of winning each week. Even with all their injuries the Eagles probably look best placed to win an NFC East division where all the teams are struggling, but if they can beat the Cowboys in the Sunday night game then their week nine bye could be the very real moment where they can try to get some players back healthy. Meanwhile, for all the Giants’ struggles this season, they have kept the last three games close and beaten the Washington Football Team in the process, but this week’s game against the Buccaneers is going to be a very different level of test.

The pick of the games when I checked the schedule for week seven was the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the unbeaten Tennessee Titans and ultimately winning out 27-24. The Steelers built a commanding 24-7 lead in the first half and was able to hold on for the win despite a strong comeback from the Titans in the second half. That said, the Steelers continue to show great balance in all three phases of the game, and even if their offence did slip out of the top ten by DVOA this week, they have a number of good young receivers that meant that with the Titan’s focussing on rookie sensation Chase Claypool they still were able to amass two hundred and fifty yards of passing offence. The defence looks to have coped despite the loss of linebacker Devin Bush and whilst the loss doesn’t change my mind about the Titans, you can definitely see why the Steelers are the sole unbeaten team in the NFL right now, but their schedule doesn’t get any easier this week as they take on the rested Ravens.

The Cleveland Browns played and entertaining game with the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that was decided by who had the ball last as neither defences were able to consistently stop each other. It was Baker Mayfield who was able to drive the Browns seventy-five yards in under a minute to seal the game 37-34 with a touchdown pass to Donovan Peoples-Jones. Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow continues to impress for the Bengals and threw for over four hundred yards this week, but a promising set of receivers does not a winning offence make and with continued issues on the offensive line as well as the defense we know what the Bengals are this season. There are some who think that this is okay as another poor record will secure the Bengals another high draft pick to build the team with, but there have been problems on the o-line and defence for too long now for me to be certain that the current regime can succeed in that endeavour. The Browns continue to make me think that they are on the right track, and even if Baker Mayfield is not the long term at quarterback, a 5-2 record is not to be sneezed at and this is not your usual 2.0 version of the Browns that have only made the play-offs once in the twenty-two seasons since the franchise returned in 1999.

The final game I saw this weekend was the rip-roaring game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks that saw the Cardinals manage to kick the game winning field goal in overtime on the second attempt having handed the ball back to the Seahawks on second down the previous drive after their first game winning attempt was missed. For all that there were some questionable decisions late in the game, this was a highly entertaining matchup where the defensive play of the contest was made by Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf chased Cardinals Safety Budda Baker down after he intercepted a Russell Wilson pass and ran it the length of the field, expecting to get the touchdown when Metcalf not only made up the yards to catch Baker but then made a great tackle. It was a game turning play because even if the Seahawks ultimately lost, they stopped the Cardinals from scoring in the following drive and then marched the ball down the field to score themselves and in this close a contest that really mattered. However, the three interceptions Wilson threw meant his continued production was not enough for the Seahawks to win the game this time. The NFC West is a monster of a division in 2020, with all four teams having winning records and if this game is anything to go by, there will be plenty more great divisional games to come during the rest of the season.

What I Heard

There has been lots of discussion about the trade deadline next week, not least because the salary cap is going to come down significantly next season thanks to the revenue drop from not having full stadiums. Already we have had some players moving including a disgruntled Carlos Dunlap heading from the Bengals where he is their all time sack leader to a Seahawks team who desperately need some pass rush.

It feels like because of the complexities of football the possible upsides from such trades is unlikely to match the fan excitement, but I do wonder if we will see more action because of the effects of Covid-19 and we have all ready seen teams signing veterans to the practice squad so they can get a longer look at them and get the player acclimatise before they have to carry them on the roster. The best teams are always looking to make best use of the rules they can so we have to see if someone can make a material improvement to how their team looks.

What I Hope

With the Bengals are hosting the Titans this weeken,d I fear for our run defence against Derrek Henry so I mainly hope we can keep the game competitive and Burrow healthy.

What I am really excited about is the chance to watch Tua Tagovailoa make his first start for the Dolphins against the Rams, and I just hope the bold prediction Dan forced me to make on the pod doesn’t coincide with something bad happening to Tua.

2020 Week Seven Picks

25 Sunday Oct 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I am so annoyed with myself regarding the result of the Thursday night game because as much the numbers were telling me one thing, I wrote that the Giants had been playing hard, I knew that the Eagles were fighting injuries and I don’t know why I thought the Eagles were going to be four points clear. Luckily Dan made the same mistake but I need to make sure that I am careful with the lines that I am offered in what looks to be a tough week of picks.

Early Games:

The king of the early games is the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers taking on the unbeaten Tennessee Titans in a something has got to give match that is my game of the week. The Titans have come back strongly from their Covid-19 outbreak and won two games in six days but their defense is creaking and not as strong as last year whilst the Steelers are top ten in all phases of the game. I haven’t had a chance to watch the Steelers yet this season so I am really looking forward to seeing if Ryan Tannehill can maintain his level of performance against the league’s second ranked defense by DVOA as well as what physical feat Derek Henry can manage next. This is a meeting of two hard nosed football teams and is not one to be missed.

The other game I am really interested to see the result of is the New Orleans Saints coming of a bye hosting the 3-3 Carolina Panthers. This should be a fun divisional matchup where the Panthers may have lost to the Bears last week, but they will still pose a stiff challenge to a Saints team that just hasn’t clicked this season despite their talent on paper.

My thoughts on the other early games:

  • Both the Lions and the Falcons are coming off wins, but the Lions are going to need to do a lot more to convince whilst we will soon find out if the Falcons turn around last week was a bounce back after their coach was fired or if it is something that can be built upon.
  • The Bills have lost two tough games in a row and some cracks are showing in their defense so a trip to face the Jets is probably just the pick me up they need. I’m not sure about the line, particularly with a number of Bills’ players testing positive for Covid-19, but it’s hard to see where the Jets are going to get a win from at this point.
  • The second battle of Ohio of the year gives the Bengals a chance to avenge their earlier loss against a Browns team whose quarterback situation is even murkier with Baker Mayfield nursing injured ribs. The Bengals need to learn how to finish having taken a twenty-one point early lead against the Colts last week so we shall have to see if the coaching staff can get things heading in the right direction.
  • The Cowboys were abysmal on Monday and the noise surrounding the coaching staff this week were not exactly encouraging although Mike McCarthy does have a point about anonymous sources. Still, if the Cowboys can’t be a struggling Washington team then it could well be time for full panic stations in Dallas for those who are not there already.
  • The Packers will want to prove that last week’s performance was a one off, and it will certainly help that no-one can confuse the Texans defense with the Bucs separated as they are by twenty-four places in the DVOA rankings. The Texans are a team that I need to watch soon to get a better feel for them but I think their offence could give the Packers defense some problems so this could be one of the more entertaining games of the week.

Lions @ Falcons (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Bills @ Jets (+12.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Browns @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Cowboys @ Washington (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Packers @ Texans (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Panthers @ Saints (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Steelers @ Titans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Late Games:

The highlight of the late games for me is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers riding high from their convincing win over the Packers travelling to take on the high scoring Raiders coming of the bye. I clearly don’t have a great feel for Raiders as in week five I stated they would struggle against the Chiefs with their defense ranked in the thirties by DVOA and yet they won that gamet. That said, the Buccaneers defense is a very different proposition to the Chiefs and with the Raiders only managing seven sacks so far this season you can seen Tom Brady being comfortable and picking apart that same thirtieth ranked defense. If the Buccaneers can get more of their receives healthy and in sync with the Buccaneers they could be very scary by the end of the year and this will be a good test of how serious a threat they are.

Late game thoughts:

  • The Chiefs are giving a lot of points to a Broncos team who have won two straight including prevailing over the Patriots last week. I do not think the Broncos have a defense that can stymie the Chiefs that much, but I do wonder if this divisional game might be closer than this line suggests and could have a surprise or two in store.
  • The Patriots struggled last week and Cam Newton did not look good returning from Covid-19 but Bill Belichick teams seldom lose two weeks in a row even if they also don’t usually have a losing record. The 49ers at 3-3 are hanging in despite their injury list and this could be an intriguing game, particularly with Kyle Shanahan scheming again the Patriots defence.
  • The Jaguars are not good, but this is a lot of points to lay for a 1-4 Chargers team whose only win was a close fought affair against the Bengals in week one. As much as rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has impressed, I wonder if they can win this game as convincingly as the line suggests or if this game will be close given how often the Chargers seem to be in close games.

Buccaneers @ Raiders (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Chiefs @ Broncos (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

49ers @ Patriots (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Jaguars @ Chargers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Sunday Night Football:

Seahawks @ Cardinals (+3.5)

The Sunday night game showcases the NFC West meeting of the Seattle Seahawks amd the Arizona Cardinals. The curious thing about the Cardinals is that Kyler Murray only completed nine of his twenty-four attempts against the Cowboy last week as they still ran out easy winners, but they will need to be more efficient than that this week as despite their problems on defense, the Seahawks offence with Russell Wilson playing so well is more than capable of keeping up with the Cardinals. This is a game that definitely has the potential to be a really good contest and whilst I think I do give the edge to the Seahawks, I am not convinced by this line.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Monday Night Football

Bears @ Rams (-5.5)

This is an intriguing game where I think the line might be off. The LA Rams have shown plenty of potential this season but are probably a tier below the front runners in the NFC. This is a real test for the Rams as whilst the visiting Chicago Bears are once again limited on offence and relying on their defense to keep them in games, this formula has been enough for them win five games so far this season. The Bears definitely have the players to disrupt quarterback Jared Goff with pressure and so I wonder how the Rams offence will look and whether this is a close tense game or if Sean McVay can scheme enough productivity that the streaky Nick Foles led Bears offence struggles to keep up. A fine matchup to finish off the week.

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

AFC and NFC South Preview

06 Sunday Sep 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Pre-Season

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Somehow this is the final weekend before our first NFL Sunday, and having take part in the Kickers Matter podcast-athon yesterday, the TWF Dynasty draft is in the home stretch and I think I have time to get the last previews up ahead of Thursday’s season opener.

It has been an odd pre-season given the state of the world and the lack of games so it almost feels weird that we’re going to get actual football this coming week, but here it comes so I had better get to it is as we go through the AFC & NFC South divisions.

AFC South

Houston Texans

The Texans are one of the stranger teams to assess in the league as every year there is plenty of criticism of head coach Bill O’Brien, particularly now he has personnel control and the trading away of star receiver DeAndre Hopkins this off-season has done nothing but encourage that criticism. However, O’Brien has only had one losing season in his six years in Houston, going to the play-offs four times so he has almost always kept the team competitive, even if he has not always had a top tier quarterback to work with. Now that he has a franchise QB, O’Brien will be relying on Deshaun Watson to run his offence without Hopkins, and it will be interesting to see how this goes as there did seem to be two Texans’ offences last year, depending on whether receiver Will Fuller was fit and able to stretch the field or not. To go 10-6 with an offence that only ranked seventeenth by DVOA and a defence ranked even lower at twenty-second is not something I think will be easily replicable so the Texans will be hoping to improve but having traded big names like Jadeveon Clowney ahead of last season, and Hopkins this year, fans will be worried. I have a feeling that given his track record, that O’Brien will manage to keep the Texans competitive and my love of JJ Watt is well documented but my hunch for who is going to win this AFC South is another team, and not the team who came second last season either, but more of that in a moment.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were one of the surprises of the 2019 season, and after a modest start where they went 2-4 with Marcus Mariota as their starting quarterback, the Titans switched to Ryan Tannehill and rolled all the way to the conference championship where they fell to the eventual Super Bowl champions. It was only Mike Vrabel’s second year as a head coach, and he only spent one year as defensive coordinator in Houston before that, but he’s gone 9-7 twice and after last season’s run the Titans will be looking to be good again this season. The issue with that could be they have had to let some players go as they handed big contracts to both Derek Henry and Ryan Tannehill. It is good to see Tannehill succeed after things never came together for him in Miami, but in truth we don’t know if last year was an aberration or if he can finally establish himself as a franchise quarterback. It is for this reason that I completely understand the big contract that they gave Derek Henry. It doesn’t always make sense to invest a lot of money in a running back, but given how central Henry is to their game plan and the fact that it is only guaranteed for two years, it’s an okay investment. They will also be hoping receiver AJ Brown can build on his great rookie season but whether they can stay top ten by DVOA I don’t know. The defence was tough but didn’t rank great last season but it feels like the Titans are one of those teams who have taken on the identity of their coach and so I am expecting them to be pushing for the division all season.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts had a tough season where the shocks started before the opening game had taken place with their franchise quarterback Andrew Luck retiring at age twenty-nine, choosing to step away to do other things and given all the injuries he had fought through it did made sense to me, although that doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. The Colts season actually started promisingly, but fell flat down the stretch, not helped by Adam Vinatieri at age forty-seven having some health problems and missing some kicks that he hadn’t throughout his career. I have been really impressed by the job GM Chris Ballard has done in building the Colts roster in recent years, avoiding splashing in free agency and building a talented roster but the Luck retirement was clearly a huge blow. They have several QBs on the roster and Jacoby Brissett was able to do a job for them last season but the signing of Phillip Rivers could be a coup if he can regain his form behind an offensive line that will be able to give him the time that the Chargers couldn’t in recent years. It helps that Rivers is familiar with head coach Frank Reich’s offence, and Reich’s success with the Colts has made some wonder how much of the Eagles Super Bowl win was down to his work rather than Doug Pederson’s. In truth of course the answer lies somewhere in the middle but has Reich had success with the offence already and there looks to be potential for them to be really good this year. The defence will be hoping to be nearer to their 2018 ranking of eleventh by DVOA rather than the nineteenth that they were last season, but with Luke Kuechly’s retirement the Colts have probably my favourite linebacker in Darius Leonard so I’m sure I will be watching their defence at some point. I could be completely wrong, but as Dan is desperately trying to make me make bold predictions, I’m going to suggest that the Colts are my pick for the AFC South in 2020.

Jacksonville Jaguars

So last, and actually probably least in this division if not the league we have the Jacksonville Jaguars who were a pretty rotten 6-10 last season, but held on to head coach Doug Marrone despite racking up double-digit losses for the second season in a row. Additionally, after grievances were upheld against the franchise over the excessive use of fines, a scathing letter was released by the NFLPA announcing that more than twenty-five percent of all grievances filed by players in the entire league were filed against the Jags and that players might want to consider this when selecting their next club. The visible reaction to those of us outside of the team was the firing of Tom Coughlin, but GM David Caldwell was retained despite a number of high profile players being moved on and the Jags once again being in rebuild mode. On the field it did not help that their new Super Bowl winning quarterback Nick Foles was lost to injury after four games, but their sixth round rookie QB Gardner Minshew II manage to lead them to a 6-6 record in the games he started giving the Jaguars some life and endearing himself to fans in the process. Minshew now has the chance to prove what he can do, but the trade moves continued with pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue being moved on this off-season to join players like Jalen Ramsey as highly drafted young players who are no longer on the roster. In fact the defence already looks very different to the Sacksonville Jaguars defence of 2017 that carried the team to the conference championship game. The ugly truth for GM David Caldwell is that through the seven years he has been in charge that 2017 team are the only ones to reach the play-offs, in fact they are the only team that didn’t amass double digit losses in a season. The Jaguars need to find out if Minshew can be consistently competitive and if they have found a gem in the sixth round that will set them up for success, but they have already held on to one supposed franchise quarterback for too long considering their on-field results. The Jags have not made life easy for themselves in building a roster given that they selected running back Leonard Fournette fourth in the 2017 draft, ahead of franchise QBs like Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, and have not even given Fournette a second contract. In fact they cut the running back after his most productive season so didn’t even get anything back for him. You can’t hope to succeed with this kind of roster churn and I expect the Jaguars to struggle this season. If they can progress with Minshew as quarterback then there could be hope for the Jaguars, but there’s been precious little success over the last decade and I can’t help but wonder when the Jaguars will be truly set themselves up to be a winning franchise.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints

The Saints were one of three NFC teams to win their division with a 13-3 record in 2019, but for the second time in three years lost to the Vikings in the play-offs, this time not making it out of the wild card round. There has been a consistent push to maximise the Saint’s chances of winning a Super Bowl before Drew Brees retires and last season’s success was all the more remarkable considering that Brees missed five weeks with a torn ligament in the thumb of his throwing hand and the Saints went 5-0 with backup Teddy Bridgewater. The Saints have made some big moves in the draft but with players like Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Marshon Lattimore they have built a roster to compete and this offseason seems to be no exception. Brees has returned for another shot at getting back to the big game, and whilst Teddy Bridgewater has moved on to division rivals the Panthers, they signed former Tampa Bay Buccaneer Jameis Winston to be the backup this season. Winston will be hoping that a season under the tutelage of Brees and head coach Sean Payton will help his development and lead to a chance to start next season, be it for the Saints or another franchise, although the Saints will be hoping the former first overall pick will be sat all season. The front office of the Saints really had done a great job of keeping the Saints relevant in the last few years, but the clock is ticking for forty-one year old Brees and the Saints will be hoping that given the history of old quarterback’s level of play declining rapidly when it does go, that Brees can continue to defy age and they can once again push for the Super Bowl. They certainly could be helped with the continuity of their squad and with Sean Payton trying to get as many players as he can living in a hotel to mimic a bubble I think that it is likely the Saints will be successful in their aim as long as Brees can get somewhere near the level he has reached in recent seasons.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are coming of their second consecutive losing season and have been searching to recreate the formula that took them to the Super Bowl in the 2016 season. The Falcons have had seven winning seasons with GM Thomas Dimitroff in charge and they chose to stay the course with head coach Dan Quinn after he brought the Falcons back to 7-9 after a 1-7 start. In fact the Falcons went 6-2 after the bye week where Quinn and his coaching staff found something to get the Falcons going. To be fair there were a lot of injuries to the defence, but at thirty-five quarterback Matt Ryan will be hoping to get back to the Super Bowl if he can to make up for the tough loss to the Patriots. There are certainly big names on this roster including one of the best receivers in the game in Julio Jones, and with Dirk Koetter remaining offensive coordinator there is a good chance that the offence can improve on their ranking of fifteenth but it is the defence that has not come together in recent years. Some of this is down to health but my concern would be the cover-3 style brought over from the Seahawks by Quinn, which has been great if you had top class talent but hasn’t really been as successful anywhere else and Quinn has struggled to make the defence consistently good in Atlanta. However, this is another team with a good degree of continuity, and I can see them competing for the division this season if they can build on their performance in the second half of last season. However, it is not hard to see things going the other way either so it could be a tough season for the Falcons, but at this point there is definitely hope and we shall just have to see if that survives initial contact with the season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It has been an off-season of excitement and frustration in Tampa Bay as after head coach Bruce Arians could only get the Bucs to seven wins in his first year, the Bucs let their 2015 first round draft pick Jameis Winstone walk after he threw thirty interceptions to go with his thirty-three touchdowns and signed Tom Brady to be their new franchise quarterback, if only for however many seasons Brady (now forty-three) has left. The problem is that they are trying to integrate Brady into a new team in the year of Covid and so whilst Brady has been holding plenty of throwing sessions with his receivers before training camp started, he only took his place in the Bucs’ huddle for the first time a couple of weeks ago. In Mike Evans and Chriss Godwin the Bucs have two Pro Bowl receivers that gained over a thousand yards last season, and with Rob Gronkowski coming out of retirement and Brady apparently coaching up OJ Howard there are options at tight-end although who knows how productive they will be.  There have been some very bold predictions this off-season, but whilst I am not prepared to write them into the Super Bowl just yet, I do think that a defence that finished sixth by DVOA last season and an offence helmed by Brady with a better selection of skill players than he has had in a long time means the Bucs do have a lot of potential. I also have a lot of faith in Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles is overly qualified to be a only a defensive coordinator so I expect them to compete but it will be a magical season if Brady takes them deep into the play-offs or to what would be only the second Super Bowl in the franchise’s history.

Carolina Panthers

It is all change for the Carolina Panthers in the off-season as having fired Ron Rivera during a disappointing 5-11 season they let franchise quarterback Cam Newton go as the Panthers embraced a rebuild. They hired college coach Matt Rhule to be their new head coach and gave him a huge contract of $62 million over seven years. The off-season also saw the retirement of standout linebacker Luke Kuechly who in his eight seasons went to seven Pro Bowls and was name First-Team All-Pro five times. Kuechly never dropped below one hundred tackles despite loosing a number of games to concussions and other injuries so as much as I would have loved to see him play for longer, I’m happy he is getting out now. However, the Panthers have had a lot of change this off-season and having signed Teddy Bridgewater to be their starting quarterback this season and handed Christian McCaffrey a four year contract extension they drafted seven defensive players. It should be an exciting time for fans of the Panthers, Rhule hired Joe Brady who was the passing game coordinator at LSU and was credited with having a large part in the turnaround in Joe Burrow’s play last season to be offesnive coordinator. However, with so much change, a head coach brand new to the NFL and coordinators hired from the college game it could take time for potential to turn into results. As good as Bridgewater looked last season for the Saints in the five games he started, it has been years since he was the starting quarterback for a franchise and this is not a one year rebuild. The positive thing from my point of view is that in the contract that owner David Tepper gave Rhule demonstrates a commitment to a long term project, but as ever in the NFL we shall have to see if that commitment survives the results on the field. It will be a year to see progression for the Panthers and we shall have to see how that manifests, but the Panthers are definitely a team I am looking forward to watching this season regardless of their record.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

The Toughest Loss

23 Thursday Jan 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Well, we know the Super Bowl match-up, which looks as good as I can remember for a long time so let’s take a quick look at how we got them before we say goodbye to those who fell at the final hurdle.

What I Saw

The first game on Sunday followed the pattern of the Chief’s previous game, but whilst putting up a better fight that then Texans, the Tennessee Titan’s ultimately could not keep with up with the Chiefs on the road.

The Titans took an early lead and held it for most of the half, but they were not able to hold it until half time as the Chiefs once again demonstrated just how explosive their offence is. This time it was Sammy Watkins who led the teams in yards whilst Tyreek Hill caught two touchdowns.  Patrick Mahomes once again looked remarkable for the Chiefs, scoring the go ahead touchdown on an unforgettable run as well as once again demonstrating that he is possibly the best quarterback in the game right now.

The Titans didn’t exactly do badly on defence, but you are going to have to score points to beat the Chiefs and Derek Henry could only managed sixty-nine yards after the sequence of heroic games. With the run bottled up and the play-action passes slowing down after the initial outburst the Titans were not able to keep up with a healthy Mahomes and there’s no shame in that.

The next game was much less of a contest as the Green Bay Packers were held scoreless in the first half, going in 27-0 at half-time and whilst the Packers technically won the second half, they couldn’t get to within two scores of the 49ers.

The toughest thing to take for the Packers and their fans is the complete domination of the run game with the 49ers’ Raheem Mostert running for two-hundred and twenty yards and the 49ers only attempting to throw the ball eight times. I wonder how the 49ers will approach the next game but that’s a discussion for another day.

If feels like we have got two great teams in the Super Bowl, but it has been interesting to hear how these are probably the worst games to lose as you’re so close to the Super Bowl, which even if you do lose there will still be the stories and the build up. I can’t bring myself to care about the Pro Bowl so let’s say goodbye properly to the Titans and the Packers.

The Toughest Loss

The Tennessee Titans had a rough start to the season, but in took off when they made the switch to Ryan Tannehill as starting quarterback. In Derek Henry they had the league’s leading rusher and iookie AJ Brown broke a thousand yards receiving although he was quiet in the playoffs. The big question surrounding their quarterbacks seems to have been answered as it is hard not to see Tannehill returning, but there are several other players who also need resigning and we’ll have to see how they manage to pull things together but it feels like this team have taken on the character of their coach Mike Vrabel, and it seems like they may well be competitive again next season.

With Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback you should always have a chance, but time is running out for the Green Bay Packers to get a second Super Bowl with him, and whilst this was a more balanced team than in recent years, the offence looks like it could use more receiving options and the defence has to shore up its run defence. The Packers have re-modelled their roster since Brian Gunterkist took over, but there is still work to be done and a closing window of opportunity before they have to find Rodgers’ replacement.

What We’ve Been Asked

‘It’s nearly the end of the season and I believe that the Super Bowl could be one of the most appetising prospects for some time.

What took me aback in the first game last weekend was that the Titans took an unexpected and significant early lead, but the Chiefs were not tardy in making amends and gained a lead they would not lose before half time. A dour scoreless third quarter was followed by an effective Chiefs performance which augers well for the 2nd Feb.

The NFC game, it is true, brought together two teams who have had solid, consistent seasons and the prospects were good. It’s not just because I’m a Vikings fan which makes it hard to favour the Packers but I’ve seen the 49ers consistently turn in workmanlike performances and that is what happened here. With the Packers shut out in the first half the game was all but over before there was a reply. Even with SF easing down the die was cast and my expected Super Bowl was delivered.

For the record, I’ll pick the Chiefs by 6

Which brings us, must we, to the Pro-Bowl. I know many find it a nice way of rounding out the season but for me it’s my ‘bye week’.

The idea of sending two coachloads of very rich athletes, who haven’t played well enough over the season to make it to Prize Day, off on a ‘jolly’ just doesn’t do it for me. Whether it’s like a prize for turning up or another money making-opportunity, you choose.

I can’t see how, in such a short time, even a good coach can mould a disparate crop of athletes into anything more than a team akin to a good College set up I don’t know. OK, some fans get a few days away and get to see some players playing together which they wouldnt get to see but still it leaves me cold.

Rant over, it’s time we moved onto the Trivia.

There were 3 questions this week as we steer toward completing the 32.

We started in Oakland asking “ Who did the Oakland Raiders play when they made it to Super Bowl II?” I think Gee’s thought process was well argued and he correctly scored the point for picking the Green Bay Packers.

The Raiders met the Packers on January 14, 1968 in Miami at the Orange Bowl. The Packers beat the Raiders 33-14.

Moving on it was Philadelphia where I asked  “Which Eagle quarterback threw for 464 yards in one game setting a team record?”

This was Donovan McNabb and they both mcNabbed a point for giving me the right answer.

McNabb’s big day was against the Green Bay Packers on December 12, 2004. The Eagles won 47-17 at Lincoln Financial Field. Randall Cunningham set the previous mark at 447 yards in a win against the Redskins in 1989.

Finally we hit Pittsburgh so tell me, “In the Steelers’ first Super Bowl appearance, who did they defeat? “

Gee had the jitters because while it would fit, he didn’t know if 3D was coming into play. Well, this time it wasn’t (but it may return soon)

The answer was, “Minnesota Vikings”

Super Bowl IX saw Pittsburgh defeat the Vikings 16-6. The game capped off a 10-3-1 1974 season and was played January 1975 at Tulane Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana.

No points either way so this week it ran out 2-1 to Gee bringing the totals to Gee 28 v Dan 31. Very close with 6 questions to go.

The first 2 of which are

San Francisco 49ers:

How many 49er quarterbacks were inducted into the Hall of Fame in the 20th century?

Seattle Seahawks

Which player finished the 2003 season as the Seahawks starting quarterback?

Enjoy the Pro Bowl’