Tag Archives: Rob Gronkowski

Super Bowl Preview

05 Sunday Feb 2017

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The big day is here, and despite the myriad of coverage that comes with the Super Bowl, here comes my own thoughts on the season that the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots have had and what we might see in tonight’s/tomorrow morning’s final game of the season. And there will be no discussion of the colour of the team’s jerseys!

The Atlanta Falcons were seeded second in the NFC having won their division with an 11-5 record. Splitting the season into four game sections as the coaches do, we can see that after losing their first game the Falcons won the first quarter by winning the next three games, they then split the next eight games across the middle quarters, but won out through the final quarter of the season and carried that momentum through the playoffs to the Super Bowl.

Their offence has played well all season, reaping the benefits of the blossoming relationship between offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and his quarterback Matt Ryan that led respectively to Shanahan being the expected head coach of the San Francisco 49ers and Ryan being named league MVP. Having focussed on what Ryan did and did not like from their first season together, the offence soared with Ryan throwing for just shy of five thousand yards, thirty-eight touchdowns and just seven interceptions. The offence scored thirty points or more in thirteen of their sixteen regular season games and both playoff games. This year they managed to balance the run game with the pass game, and that if defences focussed on stopping Julio Jones then Ryan was more than happy to distribute the ball with it not being unusual for five or more players to make catches during the game and thirteen different players caught touchdowns this year.

If the offence is what drives this Falcons team, then the defence has managed to do enough to win, which is impressive given the number of rookies and second year players that are contributing on this side of the ball. Their pass defence improved down the stretch despite losing Desmond Trufont to injury for most of the season, but their rush defence ranks only twenty-ninth by DVOA. They had a league leading fifteen and half sacks from Vic Beasley whilst one of their rookies Keanu Neal was second on the team in tackles as he drew comparisons with Seattle safety Kam Chancellor with his physical play. This is a unit that is a work in progress, but the profile of the players they are putting together is beginning to resemble the template of the defence in Seattle, which is hardly surprising given that this is where Head Coach Dan Quinn’s came from.

If the Falcons are melding their experienced offence with a young developing defence, then the Patriots are continuing their constant evolution in the relentless pursuit of excellence. This is the challenge that all NFL teams face, but few if any can match the success of Bill Belichik and Tom Brady, which is even more impressive given that it is taking place in a time of free agency and rules designed to enable all teams to be competitive.

The Patriots may have been missing Tom Brady for their first four games thanks to a dubious punishment from the deflate gate saga, from which I shall spare you a recap, but they still won three of those games including a 27-0 drubbing of the Houston Texans with their third string quarterback. Once Brady returned the offence hummed and the Patriots only lost one more game against the Seattle Seahawks as they went 14-2 and locked up the number one seed.

The Patriots offence is hard to generalise about as their approach changes from week to week depending on the opposition. It is perfectly possible for their incredible quarterback to be handing the ball off for the majority of the game if the plan demands it, or he could make fifty plus throws as the team pass their way to victory. What has been impressive is that they have achieved the results they have with Brady missing the games he did and Rob Gronkowski hardly playing this season thanks to injury. When he is on the field Gronkowski is putting together an argument to be considered one of the best tight ends to have played the game, but free agent pickup Martellus Bennett is a very good tight end in his own right and was second on the team in receiving yards this year and caught seven touchdowns. The other big free agent addition to the offence was receiver Chris Hogan, signed from the Buffalo Bills, who chipped in with nearly seven hundred receiving yards of his own and four touchdowns. It is worth noting that despite varying usage, running back LeGarrette Blount still ran for over a thousand yards this season and I haven’t even mentioned Julian Edelman who caught ninety-eight balls for eleven hundred yards himself.

If the offence was its usual supple and efficient self, the defence was less obviously excellent, but led the league in scoring defence and in the end it is points that really matter. The talk leading into the Super Bowl has been of Belichick’s ability to take away what the opposition does best, and certainly Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia are excellent coaches, but all coaches want to stop what the opposition does best. The question is usually how much of your resources are you prepared to commit to stopping that one thing as due to there only being eleven men on the field, by focussing on one thing you weaken the defence in other areas. One of the Patriots’ tactics that is often discussed has been the way they double the best receiver of the opposition with their second corner back and a safety, whilst placing their best corner man to man on the opposition second receiver to shut him down whilst the double team limits the number one receiver. However, even this is a simplification as what Belichick does so particularly well is place his players in a position to maximise their talent and so whilst Maclolm Butler is the most familiar name amongst the Patriots’ corners, thanks to his five foot eleven frame he tends not to be matched up against big physical receivers such as a Julio Jones.

This leading nicely into the Super Bowl matchup so let’s dive into that and I will start with the matchup I am most excited about, which is the Falcons’ offence versus the Patriots’ defence. The ability of the Patriots’ defence to force their opposition to play the game in a way they don’t want to will be tested by the flexibility of the Falcons’ offence approach. The Falcons are used to teams trying to take away Julio Jones, and with Matt Ryan’s ability to distribute the ball round his skill players and take advantage of both running backs’ ability to catch the ball coming out of the backfield they will feel confident in being able to move the ball. The Patriots run defence was ranked fourth in the league by DVOA and the injury to centre Alex Mack could hamper the interior of the Falcons’ offensive line, but if he gets time to throw the ball it is not hard to see Matt Ryan and his receivers ranked first by DVOA in passing attack take advantage of a Patriots defence that only ranked twenty-third against the pass. However, the Falcons will need to score points against a defence that may have given up yards, but their bend don’t break defence obviously limited their opponents effective, so as is so commonly the case red zone efficiency will be key. One last note on this matchup, this game pits the offence with the best yards after catch in the Falcons against the defence with the best yards allowed after the catch. Something may have to give.

The reason that the Falcons ability to score is so important is that for a lot of the time it has enabled their defence to play with a lead, and this has allowed the defence to rush the passer and do enough to win. However, unlike the Patriots’ disciplined front seven, the Falcons’ defence was twenty-ninth against the run, and what better way to counter act the Falcons high powered offence than for the Patriots to run the ball to control the clock and minimise the time the Falcons have the ball? There are some who are talking about how Belichick will put the ball in Brady’s hands to win the game, but I’m not so sure the ever pragmatic Belichick isn’t perfectly happy to muddy the game and win with defence like he did against the St Louis Rams and their legendary greatest show on turf offence. However, they have plenty of passing options to attack a young defence who might not have the experience to disguise their coverages and pass rushes, and if Brady goes to the line knowing what defence he is facing then he will simply excel. Although his approach is similar to the Seahawks, Dan Quinn and his staff have been more prepared to play man coverage with a single high safety mixed in with the trademark Seattle zone three coverage that also utilises a single high safety, but Brady will know what to look for to take advantage of this. The Patriots’ quarterback is also adept at stepping up in the pocket to avoid edge pass rushers such as Vic Beasley, and the return of line coach Dante Scarnecchia has seen a big improvement in the Patriots offensive line and much steadier play. In their playoff game against the Patriots, the Houston Texans were able to get pressure up the middle and rattle Brady, but whether the Falcons’ will be able to get an interior rush that can affect Brady will be a big question in this game.

Overall, it is hard to be definitive how this game will be played given it features two teams who have a lot of flexibility in their approach. There are a lot of narratives surrounding this game, the Falcons having the better players but the Patriots having the right team, Brady and Belichick’s excellence in the offseason, the supposed extra motivation for particular players which seems to be a bit of a nonsense given they are playing in a Super Bowl. Certainly more players on the Patriots have experience of playing in a Super Bowl, which might help, but this is not Dan Quinn’s first time coaching in a Super Bowl. I can see the Falcons running away with it, or the Patriots grinding out a convincing win, although I confess that with their experience I would favour the Patriots in a close game but not by much. The real x factor is the player we don’t know who will turn the game, Malcolm Butler made his name by his last second gaoling interception against the Seahawks, and you wouldn’t put it past the Patriots to have someone do this again with an unknown player, or for one of the first or second year players on the Falcons’ defence to really announce their arrival.

I for one am just looking forward to watching the game.

Saturday Divisional Games

14 Saturday Jan 2017

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Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

The injury to Earl Thomas robbed us of the chance to see a full strength Seattle defence go up against the number one ranked offence by DVOA in the league, but this should still be a fascinating contest.

The Falcons have the options on offence, and the players to challenge Seattle down the seams and see if they find a weakness in the secondary without Thomas patrolling the rear of the defence. Their offence has been in great shape all year, moving away on the reliance on Julio Jones to spread the ball around a number of receivers and the combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have caused many teams problems out of the backfield. They are a team that run more traditional sets with a fullback than almost any other team in the league, and I am looking forward to seeing how Kyle Shanahan plans to attach the Seahawks defence. The Atlanta defence has pretty ordinary for most of the season, but Vic Beasley led the lead in sacks and with the offence playing so well, they only have to do so much to keep the Falcons in the game.

I was impressed by the the Seahawks renewed commitment to the run last week, which helped their offensive line play better and sparked an improved performance. Against a defence that ranks twenty-ninth in rush defence by DVOA this might help the Seahawks limit the time the Falcons offence has on the field, but given the problems they’ve had with the offensive line you could see Vic Beasley getting pressure on Russel Wilson. The defence also looked better last week, but the Falcons offence is a very different prospect that the Lions with their injured quarterback.

In the end I fancy the Falcons to win, but we really shouldn’t discount the playoff experience of the Seahawks, but the problems they have had against the pass since Thomas was injured could really hurt them in this one.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

The Patriots went 14-2 this season despite having Tom Brady suspended for four games, losing one with him and one without. In their previous meeting the Patriots ran out 27-0 winners with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback so it is hard to see anything other than a Patriots’ win in this game.

The offence has been its usual efficient self, and has barely missed a beat since Rob Gronkowski was lost to injury as it appears that nothing can slow down Brady who has managed to get himself into the MVP discussion despite his suspension. The defence struggled earlier in the season, but has come on over the course of the season and whilst finishing a modest sixteenth by DVOA, they will have scheme enough for a Texans offence that has sputtered all season.

The Texans got their win last week, and will no doubt want to put in a better performance than their last visit to Gillette Stadium. However, whilst their defence should be competitive, with a number of players stepping out of JJ Watt’s shadow to lead the team, the offence is likely to struggle. The Texans stressed surrounding Brock Osweiler with options in the passing game, but he struggled to make use of them for much of the year. He looked a bit better last week, but I’m not sure he’ll have the tools to attack this Patriots defence. I can see Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney causing problems with their pass rush abilitiy, and AJ Abouye has looked like an excellent pick up at corner, but you just have a feeling that the Patriots will find a way to win out in the end. They have for most of this season.

Sunday Thoughts

04 Sunday Dec 2016

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It has been a frustrating season as a Bengals fan, but there comes a point where you have to accept that the playoffs really are out of reach, and whilst that happened to me a couple of weeks ago, the optimist in me still tries to hang on to hope for a couple of weeks. I am dreading what Fletcher Cox could do against the Bengals this week, but mainly I’ll be curious about what is going on with the rest of the league.

The Cowboy ran out eventual winners in an intriguing Thursday night game, but even though the Vikings defence is back to where it was earlier in the season, they couldn’t stop the first team to record double digit wins from getting their eleventh. There are two teams that could join them this week, but whilst the Raiders and Patriots stand a good chance of getting their tenth wins, injuries to Derek Carr and Rob Gronkowski could be causing differing degrees of anxiety to fans. Derek Carr came back in the game to play with his nastily injured finger, it is amazing what adrenaline will do for you, but it is possible it might affect his play. More worrying for the Patriots though will be the loss of Gronkowski for the rest of the season after having back surgery this week. You would back the Patriots staff to be able to adjust to this loss, but it is a big loss as Gronkowski is a real difference maker and is a favourite target of Brady as well as being the best tight end in the league.

No team is unaffected by injury at this time of year, but it is a question of whether you have picked up a critical injury and how strong you are at that position in the first place. The Seattle Seahawks offensive line has not been good all season, but in recent weeks they had improved enough when combined with Russel Wilson getting healthy to make the Seahawks look frightening again. However, they picked up more injuries last week and the Seahawks could only register five points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are still very much in control of the AFC West, which is very much going through a down season this year, but they will have their eyes on bigger prizes and I will be curious to see how well their offence goes this week against a Panthers team who have been more competitive in recent weeks, even if the results don’t necessarily reflect it.

It felt like a strange week of games to predict, there are a lot of teams whose performance is varying week to week, and when there are questions surrounding even the best of teams, it is beginning to feel that the Cowboys might be putting themselves on a level of their own as they keep grinding out wins.

I think the question of overtime could rear its head again this week with another game that did give us a winner last Sunday, but still went to the end of overtime. One of my picks is resting on whether this extra pick is enough to let the Jaguars cover, but given the previous results of teams coming off a full overtime period it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the Jaguars could pick up a win. I know that Americans are culturally obsessed with there not being draws, but if a full period of overtime is that much of a disadvantage to the participating teams the following week, I’m still not sure that in an era of concern over player well-being, that we are not better off just accepting that draws happen.

Let’s see what happens with the Chiefs and Broncos when they play today.

NFL Dolphins @ Patriots Recap

01 Sunday Nov 2015

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I was really looking forward to this game, and whilst it did not turn into the contest that I hoped it would, there was still plenty of interesting things to see in this game.

The Dolphins may have lost a one sided game, but I thought their defence did a credible job, although you wouldn’t know it from the numbers. The Dolphins made the Patriots punt the ball six times, including a couple of short drives, and stood tough. They were able to get pressure on Brady with a pair of sacks, six quarter back hits, and they were able to affect Tom Brady more often than these numbers suggest. However, in the end they Patriots were able to work out what matchups favoured them, and the Dolphins defence got very little help from their offence.

The Patriots offence focused more on running the ball more than they did last week, but that was not exactly a difficult task. However, they still relied on Brady leading their pass attack to move the ball. He threw for three hundred and fifty-six yards and four touchdowns completing twenty-six of thirty-eight attempts. His usual targets led the team with Rob Gronkowski catching six balls for one hundred and thirteen yards and a touchdown whilst Julian Edelman caught seven for eighty-one yards and two touchdowns. However, the player that really caught the eye was Dion Lewis who the Dolphins struggled to cover out of the backfield all game and who gave them fits whenever he had the ball in space. It’s is hard to look so much quicker than other players in the NFL, but Lewis managed it and the Patriots certainly were able to use this at key spots to keep the ball moving. For his touchdown Lewis caught a short little dump off pass, but was able to run it in before the Dolphins who had all covered deeper receivers were able to react.

This was the real difference between the two offences in this game as whilst the Patriots offensive weapons were utilised in key spots, the Dolphins were unable to get their own into the game at the right moments. There we some good individual plays, but no one was able to stand out when required and once again the Dolphins got away from the run earlier than they would have wanted. Part of this is likely that they only managed fifteen yards from thirteen attempts, but a major part of their problems late in the game was having got behind in the first half, they spent too much time in defined passing formations, allowing the Patriots to rush the passer without fearing the run. This only served to highlight that the Dolphins’ offensive line is simply not that good in pass protection and they got caught out by simple blitzes and rushes when they were in multi receiver sets. As a consequence Tannehill was sacked five times, and whilst he threw some nice passes, he also threw a pair of interceptions. The commentators were talking about how the Dolphins needed to leverage Tannehill’s talent better in the passing game, but I think some of that is having balance in the offence. Gone are the days of running the ball to setup the pass as the base of your offence, if this even existed, you are more likely to setup the run with the pass by forcing the defence to respect your deep ball. In reality for most teams what you need is the balance to make the defence have to respect both eventualities, and be able to offer some level of deception. The Dolphins were not able to do that in this game and it cost them as too often it was all to obvious that is was another pass attempt that was coming.

The Patriots defensive strength is in their front seven these days, and this was easy to see with the way they shut down the Dolphins run game and got after Ryan Tannehill. They managed five sacks and ten quarterbacks in this game, with sacks being spread between ends Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich, with linebacker Dont’a Hightower and DB Devin McCourty also getting in on the act. The Dolphins were not able to move the ball consistently in this game and were frequently in poor field position, and the Patriots defence kept making plays when their offence did stumble. It is not often that you see a defence give up less than twenty yards in the run game, and yet the Patriots have been on both sides of it in their last two. However, they chose not to run the ball last week, where as it looked like they forced the Dolphins not to in this one.

The Dolphins came into this game with momentum after appointing their new coach, but this game was a dose of realism. The improved intensity may have helped against the two poor AFC South teams that they faced in the last two weeks, but they needed more in this game. They were unable to lean on their running game as they have since Dan Campbell took charge, and in the end were simply not able to get enough going on offence to keep up with the Patriots in this one. The worry would be that the problems on offence looked familiar in terms of play calling, I plan to ask Dan about that on the podcast this week.

The Patriots just keep rolling this season. On paper the defence looks thin in the secondary, but clearly this hasn’t hurt them so far and looking at the schedule they don’t appear to be facing any offences that would make them worry unduly. In this game Bill Belichick was able to take away the part of the Dolphins offence that had got them going again, whilst the offence continues to play well. This may not be the most terrifying of Tom Brady’s offences, but he has more than enough weapons to keep the ball moving through the air and looks as good as ever.

I was hoping to go through the coaching tape of the Eagles visiting the Panthers, but the travel to go see the final London NFL game is going to get in the way. Time to go see some live football in person.

Week 1 Steelers at Patriots

13 Sunday Sep 2015

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So we finally get to the start of the season, but we still can’t escape the deflategate saga, but after the opening parade of trophies and celebrations we could finally move on to football.

It was an interesting game with both teams transitioning on defence, but for me the game was won and lost in the red zone. The Steelers had no problem moving the ball as they were able to establish the run early, and actually generated more yards on offence that the Patriots. However, whilst they connected with a number of deep passes, their offence kept getting bogged down in the opponent’s half and they lost six points with Josh Scobee missing his first two field goal attempts. The Patriots however, after a first series stall, managed to get a two touchdown lead and were never really troubled by the Steelers for the rest of the game.

The Steelers offence looked good for the most part, and they certainly were prepared for Le’Veon Bell’s suspension, with DeAngelo Williams throwing off the years and running for one hundred and twenty-seven yards at an average of six yards per carry. The deep ball was also working against the Patriots rebuilt secondary, with several such passes going to Anotio Brown, Markus Wheaton somehow getting his feet in after Ben Roethlisberger was given an age to find a receiver, and Darrius Heyward-Bey managing to get behind Bradley Fletcher on a go route to gain fourty-three yards that was the Steelers’ longest play of the game. The problem is that they stalled at the Patriots’ twenty-six and twenty-eight yard line for the missed field goals, got field goals from the twenty-six and six yard lines, whilst only scoring two touchdowns.

The Patriots rebuilt their defence in the offseason, but appeared to be focussing on their front seven rather than trying to replace the cornerbacks they let go. However, right from the first series they appeared to be soft against the run, and given the success the Steelers were having, I was surprised to see them run a trick play early that gave Antonio Brown the chance to throw the ball, but which merely led to a sack. The Patriots were able to generate some pressure, sacking Roethlisberger two times in addition to getting Brown down, but at other times big Ben had plenty of time to throw the ball and they were beaten deep a number of time. What they were able to do though, was to bend and not break, as the defence managed to stop the Steelers as the field got shorter. We will have to see how this works as the season goes along, but they did enough in this game to get the job done.

The Patriots on offence on the other, hand were highly effective at what they do, and it was the usual suspects. The reinstated Tom Brady threw for two hundred and eighty-eight yards with twenty five completions from thirty-two attempts. The majority of these passes went to Julian Edleman and Rob Gronkowski, with Gronkowski being the kind of red zone threat that the Steelers struggled to find. Their was no sign of the early wobble that troubled the Patriots last season, and I go back to the loss of their long time line coach Dante Scarnecchia and the resulting adjustment as a possible cause for this. They ran the ball fairly well with Dion Lewis, and with Brady they always have a chance, but I might be a little concerned for them if Gronk or Eldeman were out for any stretch of time.

The Steelers defence looked off for most of the night, there were flashes of what they were trying to do, but there appeared to be a lot of miscommunication and they did nothing to allay the fears regarding their secondary. It will be interesting to see how the defence progresses as they gain experience in the changed system, and they will have been happy to see their first round draft pick Alvin Dupree pick up a sack in his first game.

Finally I want to look at two specific plays that caught my eye during the game. This season I will be working on a series I will call adventures in film. I’ll be looking at a game from the previous week once the tape becomes available, and picking out certain plays from the Thursday night games when I write up that game.

The first play that struck me was a beautifully timed completion to Danny Amendola. The Patriots lined up shotgun with five receivers, three on the left and two on the right. The Patriots snap the ball and the Steelers rush with four. Danny Amendola is the closest receiver to the line on the left side with Gronkowski and then Edleman outside him; Amendola runs an out then up route whilst Gronkowski runs a hitch that sets a pick to get Amendola open whilst Edleman runs a go route. Ryan Shazier has a relatively clear path to Brady, but on receiving the snap Brady takes a further three step drop and then floats a ball over the trailing William Gay for an eighteen yard completion before anyone can get to him. It was a lovely play, and I don’t know how a defence can counter it with Brady getting rid of the ball so quickly and given that the safety has to honour the go route of Edleman.

The other play I wanted to look at was the sack by safety Will Allen. The Patriots line up with 11 personnel (ie one tight end and one running back) in a shotgun formation with Gronkowski the right side tight end and running back Dion Lewis to Brady’s left. The Steelers are in a 3-3 nickel with single high safety coverage and a linebacker playing as one of the down linemen. Will Allen just times his run to perfection so he’s moving when the ball is snapped but no one accounts for him as a pass rusher. Thanks to William Gay rushing from the nickel corner spot on the same side as Allen, running back Dion Lewis picks up Gay, leaving Allen a free run to the quarterback. What caught my eye about this play initially was the timing of Allen’s run, but in looking at it on coaching tape, it also demonstrates that although the defence maybe changing, the zone blitz is not done in Pittsburgh. They may have sent a corner and a safety, but it was a classic overload of one side whilst all four linebackers dropping into coverage, so the defence only actually rushed four, sticking to the aim of the zone blitz to generate a pass rush safely.

How the Super Bowl was Won

10 Tuesday Feb 2015

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The NFL media are already moving on to the offseason, but I wanted to go through the coaching tape of the Super Bowl and have some things to say before I take a little break and start preparing for the next year.

It might seem an odd place to start, given that one of the things I do as a writer is create narratives around games, but the first thing I want to look at is the narrative surrounding Tom Brady and complain. To me it seems reductive and absurd to place as much emphasis on how many Super Bowls a quarterback wins when weighing his career as has been done since Brady won his fourth. There is no doubt that Brady has had an amazing career, and deserves to be in the conversation with the very best who have played the game, but his legacy should not rest quite so heavily on whether an undrafted rookie corner back makes a great interception at the end of the game or not. The game of American football is one of teams and coaches, and whilst playing quarterback is one of the most complex tasks we ask of an athlete, and there is perhaps no more important single player on the field of play, the quarterback simply cannot win games on their own even if they can possibly lose them. Just look at what happened to Aaron Rodgers this year, or Dan Marino across his career for evidence of how outstanding quarterback play doesn’t guarantee you a Super Bowl ring, Peyton Manning would have a few more if it did.

The other frustration coming out of the Super Bowl was the narrative surrounding the Seahawks play call that led to Russell Wilson throwing an interception from the Patriots’ one yard line with twenty six seconds left on the clock. Now I don’t like the call, and running the ball would seem to be the answer in this situation when you have one of the great power backs in the game, but it was Pete Carroll’s aggressive nature that got them into the position to win this game, as how many coaches would have had the conversation he did with Russell Wilson with six seconds left in the first half and agree to throw the ball to try to get the touchdown and risk not getting any points, so it shouldn’t be a surprise when he makes another aggressive call. You can’t divorce the result from the call when evaluating a play, but given the sensationalist nature of society which seems to mean that everything is either the best or worst thing to have happened, ever… then call maybe wasn’t as bad as some would have you believe. Still, you run the ball there don’t you? I would.

So what did I learn from watching the game back on film? Well everybody is saying that this was an instant classic, and I agree. We had two well coached teams that played to very high standard, and who gave us an exciting close game that went back and forth. Either team could have won, and with a few different bounces of the ball could have done so.

The first big story of the game for me was health, and specifically that of the Seattle defence. As people have be tweeting and writing, it wasn’t so much the Legion of Boom as the Legion of Wound. We already knew that Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas were injured, and Kam Chancellor came into the game with a knee injury, but all three injuries were more serious than they were letting on and are facing various surgeries this offseason. In the actual game they all played very well, with perhaps a few occasions where Rob Gronkowski got away from Chancellor enough to make plays being the most obvious effect. However, it was the cumulative effect of the injuries on defence that got them in the end.

In the first quarter the Seahawks couldn’t get anything going on offence, and so their defence spent a lot of time on the field, holding true to Caroll’s bend don’t’ break philosophy and coming up with a huge end zone pick when Brady let fly with a pass vaguely intended for Julian Edleman. The pass was not a good one, but this play almost turned the game in the Patriots favour in a strange way. Jeremy Lane took a couple of steps back to drop into a zone coverage, and intercepted the ball, but on the ensuing run back he landed awkwardly, breaking both bones in his forearm and putting him out of the game.

As a result of this, Tharold Simon came into the game as the nickel corner, although it was Byron Maxwell who slid in to cover the slot receiver with Simon on the outside. This in of itself might not have been a problem, as he did well when matched up against Brandon LaFell going deep, but he did not have the lateral quickness to keep with the shifty Edleman. This being the well coached game that it was, Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels were not going to miss this opportunity, and you could frequently see Edleman coming across the field with Smith trailing behind him. This use of slot receiver style quick underneath routes both attacked the weak areas of the Seahawks scheme and played to the strength of Brady.

The other injury on the Seahawks defence that helped the Patriots offensive performance was the loss of Cliff Avril in the third quarter, slowing a pass rush that was already struggling to reach Brady. The Patriots o-line did enough to keep the passing game working, but it was the quick drops and passes by Brady that won this game. The Patriots couldn’t run the ball except occasionally when it was setup by the pass, but the accumulation of these injuries to the Seahawks defence helped enable it.

So if the defence of the Seahawks couldn’t stifle the Patriots enough to win, what happened on the other side of the ball? This year’s Patriots defence was the best they’ve had for years and their secondary was more than enough to cope with the Seahawks’ starters. In fact for most of the game, the Seahawks moved the ball in bursts. Their running game was pretty effective, although I was surprised that they didn’t run Rusell Wilson more, but they struggled to maintain drives. However, for a while it did look like the MVP was going to be a receiver who had never caught a pass in the NFL before this game.

The six foot five Chris Matthews announced himself in the biggest game of his career with a forty-four yard catch over the five foot ten Kyle Arrington, and this match up was such a problem that Arrington ended up coming out of the game for Malcolm Butler, and Brandon Browner begged for the assignment of covering the tall Seattle receiver. Matthews caught the touchdown that tied up the scores at half time, and finished the game with over one hundred yards receiving and that touchdown, but he did struggle once the Patriots adjusted. That said, the Seahawks really should have won this game, even if the Patriots did have the upper hand for arguably three quarters.

It will be interesting to see how Pete Carroll picks up the pieces of the aftermath of this game, and build a team next season having lost coaches and with everyone second guessing that play call.

The Patriots will probably roll on, but they have their own offseason moves to make, and at some point Tom Brady might stop being able to do this.

I am going to ease off a bit as we head into the offseason as I want to do a self scout of what I did with the blog this year and come up with ways to improve for next season.

I will leave you with three plays that jumped out on me as I watched the tape. I’ll begin with the first Juliain Edleman catch against Simons, where he started as the outside receiver, ran a drag route across the field, caught the ball and went for twenty-three yards. Second was a screen to Shane Vereen that caught my eye as I was generally unimpressed by the Patriots o-line in the run game, but centre Bryan Stork did a really good job of getting out to the linebacker on this play so Vereen could go down the sideline.

The final play that stands out, in a year of impossible catches, was Jermaine Kearse catching that deep ball, despite Butler making a good play on the ball and it bouncing off three parts of Kearse’s body before he was able to reel it in. It may not have been better than the Odell Beckham catch, but it’s a pretty good way to leave the 2014 season.

Super Bowl Preview

01 Sunday Feb 2015

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It has been a very strange build up to the Super Bowl, with the news dominated by the seemingly endless leaks regarding deflated footballs, except we don’t actually know yet if the balls were deliberately tampered with, just that they were under the regulated pressure. Right now I can’t bring myself to care too much about it as I want to be looking at the upcoming game which should be a fascinating contest. What I will say is that yet again the NFL is demonstrating that even though they are a billion dollar business, that regulation and investigation does not seem to be their forte. I cannot understand why this investigation is being allowed to go on for so long and overshadow the showcase game of the football season.

The Super Bowl will be fascinating contest between contrasting teams and coaches, who will approach the games in different ways, but there are also a number of similarities.

The Patriots are famously adaptable, and it would be foolish for anyone to attempt to pre-empt what Bill Belichick has planned for this game. The Patriots dynasty has been built on Belichick’s attention to detail and the way he prepares his team to do whatever it is that he believes will win the game that week. It was interesting to her Ross Tucker on his podcast talk about one of the ways that this attention to detail manifests itself, in that rather than talking about the need to say run the ball against a particular team, Belichick would say there were three key things to win a game such as stopping a particular receiver running crossing routes on third down. Not only would he identify these specific key battles, but the players would be drilled so that when this situation occurred in the game, the players knew precisely what they had to do.

If Belichick’s teams are defined by their adaptability and tactical ingenuity, then Pete Carroll deliberately keeps his system straight forward as he believes in keeping his players unencumbered by the system so they can play faster. That’s not to say that he isn’t running a modern playbook, but part of the philosophy that he believes is key to success is to limit the number of reads a player has to make so they can be free to play.

However, even though they have their philosophical differences, there are similarities between Belichick and Carroll as both are defensive minded coaches, who’ve worked through a similar era, and have failed as head coaches before they attained success. What’s more, discussing Pete Carroll made Bill Belichick unusually verbose during this year’s media day, as he said that looking at Carroll from afar had made him a better coach, a rare complement from the famously tight lipped Belichick.

This should be a tight game as we have two very closely matched teams, who both had slightly stuttering starts, but as their personnel coalesced and got healthy managed incredibly strong runs. They have differing personalities that reflect their coaches, with the Patriot players staying tight lipped on message, where as the Seahawks are given the freedom to be themselves and so are a much loser group as a result. Neither are necessarily fan favourites with the repeated wining and various pushing of the rules by the Patriots leading them to hated in a lot of quarters, whilst the brashness of some of the Seahawks can rub people the wrong way and there have been a number of PED suspensions for this team. However, both are undeniably well coached, and whilst the game may not be the offensive spectacle that some would desire, there should be some fascinating football to watch.

Perhaps the unit to discuss in this game is the Seahawks defence, who if you stop to listen to its players is the best of all time. It is so hard to compare units across the ages, and so I’m not sure I would go that far, but this unit is very, very good. They ended the season on top of the DVOA stats and led the league in both points and yards allowed through the regular season. The defining part of this unit is their secondary, the legion of boom, three of whom are as good as any player in their league if not the best. They are most know for their three deep zone coverage, with Earl Thomas roaming the field as the deep safety, both corners locking down their respective sides of the field and Kam Chancellor stalking the centre of the field looking for the big hit. The front seven do not blitz that often, but by default align as a 4-3 under defence, meaning that the lineman slide to the side so that the strong side linebacker can line up over the tight end. From this alignment they will be aggressive, with the majority of the front seven have one gap assignments, meaning they can push up the field to make the play, but they won’t be trying to trick the Patriots with complex pressure packages. They will trust their system to cope with what the Patriots will throw at them.

So what will the Patriots throw at them? If the Seahawks are defined by their defence, then the Patriots are characterised by their offence, and their quarterback who is playing to win his fourth Super Bow at his sixth attempt. The question is how will they attempt to attack this defence, and a couple of way have been suggested. One thing that they won’t do is challenge the Seahawks on the outside as they don’t have the explosive kind of receivers to do this. In fact, as good as both team’s secondarys are, they’re almost wasted on the receiving corps that they are facing in this game. One way to challenge a zone system is to attack the seams in between the zones, and with a tight end like Rob Gronkowski this would look like a definite possibility. The other thing I’ve repeatedly heard suggested is given that both Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are carrying injuries, that the Patriots could use the short passing game to move the ball and test their ability to make tackles, this seems to be popular as last time these teams met the Patriots ran over fifty passing plays. That said, as much as Tom Brady loves running long drives of ten to fifteen plays, chipping away at the defence, this is not the team that you want to be trying this against as they are just too good. However, if there is one area that you can attack the Seahawks, it might be in the run game as since losing defensive tackle Brandon Mebane to injury, they don’t have that top level run stuffer in the middle of the defensive line. The truth is though, that perhaps more than any other team, we won’t know what the plan is until we see it, and even then it is very likely to change throughout the game. That is the flexibility that Belichick and Brady to the game.

The Seahawks however, are a lot more of a defined prospect on offence. Although Pete Carroll is not afraid to be aggressive and is fond of the odd trick play, the bread and butter of this team is the run game. This is partly out of necessity as the Seahawks’ receivers are not a dynamic unit, but mainly because the duel threat of Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson is so very hard to defend. In Lynch the Seahawks have an amazingly physical runner, whose yards after contact numbers are almost absurd compared to the rest of the league. The duel threat comes from the read-option that they run, and Wilson’s ability to make the right decision and challenge the edges of the run defence. Like any system, there are benefits and drawbacks to the read-option, and one that I particularly dislike is the punishment it leaves your quarterback open to if they keep the ball and take the hit. However, if you watch Wilson when he runs the ball, he very rarely takes a hit as he is brilliant at getting the yards available and getting down or out of bounds before the hit comes. In fact in general Russell Wilson’s decision making is excellent, and the Seahawks have done a brilliant job of making the most out of his skill set whilst working round his limitations, as given how tall Wilson is you could not make him a pocket passer.

The Patriots defence has been much improved this year despite losing Jerod Mayo for the year in week six and not getting a great year out of Vince Wilfork. They retooled their secondary in the off season, and have caused many teams a problem by using the newly acquired Brandon Browner and a safety to bracket the top receiver, and leaving their other free agent signing Darelle Revis to lock up the second receiver. This is the exact opposite approach to the Seahawk corners playing their sides, and one of the fascinating parts of this game will be watching how the Patriots’ secondary play. The cover two defence, was in part created to defend the read-option attack, but it is not something that the Patriots use, or many teams in the NFL these days so it will be interesting to see what Belichick and his staff come up with. One of the key players in run defence could be Jamie Collins, who runs as well as any linebacker in the league and could be used to spy Russell Wilson, and Collins actually has the athletic ability to chase him down Wilson if he does keep the ball. The problem is that the Patriots have been vulnerable to the run at times this season and this is not the team that you would want to face with that weakness, as Lynch could just keep ploughing the ball up the gut to see if the Patriots can stop it for the whole game.

I am really looking forward to this game as it should be a very competitive, and importantly well coached, that is too close to call. Whoever wins this game looks to secure a legacy with the Seahawks trying to win back to back Super Bowls, and the Patriots looking to get Belichick and Brady their fourth. Neither feat has been achieved for many years. I look forward to watching it live as a fan, and going through the coaching tape next week to write the final blog of the 2014 season.