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A Glance at the AFC

08 Sunday Sep 2019

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I am so far behind where I want to be, and right now I’m looking at a list of NFL lines with horror – I was meant to have spreadsheets and formulas but despite getting the first game of the season right, I’m looking at the rest of games without even a picking pin to help me and that seemed to serve Dan’s Dad so well last year.

So before I have a nervous breakdown about the week one lines I still have time to run through the AFC divisions, which I suppose might help me gather my thoughts.

AFC East

The obvious class of the division is the defending Super Bowl Champions who will once again be the team to beat. The New England Patriots may well start slowly again, but I won’t believe they can’t be a contender to repeat when I see it, even if Tom Brady has to stop at some point. The combination of Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon could be combustible off the field, but could be terrifying if Belichick and his staff can channel their talent.

This season the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets will both be hoping to be more competitive in the division as their young quarterbacks go into their second years. I have a bit more faith in the Bills’ coaching staff than Adam Gase but Sam Darnold might well be the better quarterback. I’m curious to see how these teams will develop, but I’m not sure this is the year they compete for the playoffs.

One team who definitely won’t be participating in that race is the Miami Dolphins, who committed to the Fish Tank when they traded away three starters last weekend. They are clearly stacking up picks for the future and trying to replicate the Browns approach to the rebuild. I feel sorry for Josh Rosen who after a tough rookie year has been traded to a team who look like they could be just as bad as the Cardinals were last year.

AFC North

I have to acknowledge my own bias, but the AFC North is one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. That said the class of the division are sadly not the Bengals but the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens who even during their down years are still competitive. The Steelers look like they could be rejuvenated without dealing with Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell and Devin Bush looks like the piece the Steelers defence has been missing since the Ryan Shazier injury. The Ravens have looked good in pre-season and the defence seems to keep their identity regardless of additions and leavers. The offence will need to develop as you can only sustain so much running with your quarterback, but the comeback late in their wildcard loss did show signs that Lamar Jackson could throw enough for the offence to thrive.

The big offseason narrative of the off-season has been around the Browns, who have been amassing futher talent including Odell Beckham as John Dorsey sets the team up for what many believe will be a serious run for playoff success. My one concern though, is that Freddie Kitchens had not even run an offence until last season and now he’s in charge of the whole team. I’m not saying that they can’t succeed, and they may well challenge for the playoffs but I don’t think it is as a sure thing as a lot of people seem to.

I can’t argue that the Bengals should be taken as seriously being in the mix for the division, particularly given the ongoing injury problems along the offensive line, but I am looking forward to finally seeing what Zac Taylor’s plan is for the team. Although, on the road in Seattle has to be one of the toughest places to make a debut. I’m hopeful the offence can be effective as Andy Dalton has looked good in his limited pre-season snaps and Ryan Finley might be the future at quarterback although pre-season success for a rookie quarterback is no guarantee of success. However, I’m worried about the middle of the defence again and we’ll just have to see how things shake out.

AFC South

This is a division that was already looking very competitive and has been thrown up in the air by the shock retirement of Andrew Luck. The Indianapolis Colts have really improved under GM Chris Ballard and head coach Frank Reich and will still be competitive with Jacoby Brissett running the offence but the expectations for the season obviously feels different now.

The Houston Texans are a hard team to read, but the lack of full-time GM led Bill O’Brien to make some distinctly short term moves over the weekend and I’m not sure they were really in the position to make them even with the division opening up for them. The Texans have plenty of top tier talent but somehow have never quite convinced despite O’Brien having them in contention for the playoffs most seasons.

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be looking to bounce back from a dreadful season last year and part of this has been moving on from quarterback Blake Bortles as they look for Nick Foles to provide consistent play under coordinator John DeFilippo who was part of the Eagles Super Bowl winning staff that turned Foles into that game’s MVP. The defence was top ten last year by Football Outsiders DVOA despite knowing that the offence was going to let them down and will look to be dominant again. Meanwhile running back Leonard Fournette is healthy and will be wanting to demonstrate he’s worthy of the kind of contract handed to Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott in recent years.

The Tennessee Titans were really competitive under Mike Vrabel despite quarterback Marcus Marriota dealing with a nerve issue in his throwing arm. This is Mariota’s fifth year in the league and for different reasons than Jameis Winston (who thanks to draft position he’ll always be compared to) he has never quite broken out. Still, on the evidence of his first season as head coach it might end up being Vrabel who becomes the most convincing player/coach connected to Belichick to lead a team. If they can keep Marriota healthy and the defence plays well, the team has the potential to be competitive. Definitely a team to watch in the early weeks.

AFC West

The obvious team to start with is the Kansas City Chiefs who have rebuilt their defence in the off-season but all the focus will rightly be on Patrick Mahomes who had an otherworldly first season at starter last season. They have just added three more years to Tyreek Hill’s contract despite the horror of his domestic situation and we really should not ignore his worrying history. However, the talent is apparently too valuable to ignore and so he gets to play despite many feeling he would get a huge suspension when the recording of him threatening his partner and discussing their child who has been removed from their care. The Chiefs’ were obviously worried about this as they drafted Mecole Hardman who looked good when I saw him in pre-season. I’m not sure how improved the defence really will be, but the combination of Andy Reid and Mahomes should see the Chiefs in contention for years to come.

The other team that looked to be obviously competitive in this division are the LA Chargers, but it feels like they might have been derailed before the season has even started. I have marvelled for years about Philip Rivers’ ability to run the offence without any protection from his offensive line and the team looked legitimately good for long stretches of last season but they have already got injuries to some key players across the roster including left tackle Russell Okung. They will probably still be a tough team to face but without a real home field advantage and multiple injuries this could be a tough year.

The Denver Broncos are hoping that new head coach Vic Fangio will give them the spark to rebound from the disappointments of the Vance Joseph era but this is a very different team to the one that went to two Super Bowls with Peyton Manning. That said, they still have a terrifying pass rusher in Von Miller and Fangio is an excellent defensive coach, but John Elway has not been successful at finding a francise quarterback outside of the free-agent signing of Manning and the Broncos go into this season hoping that Joe Flacco can turn round his decline of recent years. It might be a big ask but I have a lot more faith in the experienced Fangio to at least have the team more competitive than in recent years.

And so to the final team of the AFC, who were all over the news even before they were the subject of this year’s Hard Knocks. They seemed to be tearing the team down and starting again last season, but it is hard to see how their big free-agent acquisition Antonio Brown could have caused more disruption. After the cryogenic treatment issue that made a mess of his feet and kept him out of the start of training camp and the saga of what helmet he would play in that dominated the news – he got into an altercation with GM Mike Mayock after posting his fine letters on Instagram and was finally cut from the team after the Raiders voided most of the money from his contract. Brown has been picked up the Patriots in a move that surprises nobody and Dan finds deeply suspicious.

What does all this mean to the team? I’m not sure as he’s hardly been with them and I’m not convinced at all by Gruden in this second stint as Head Coach. The defence looked pretty good in pre-season but Derek Carr has just lost his best potential receiver and with so much turmoil on the roster in the last two season I don’t know what to expect and I don’t have a lot of faith. I always want teams to do well as selfishly it provides for better content and makes the league more fun to cover but it feels like in their final year in Oakland the Raiders have the potential to implode spectacularly or rally round together. As ever only time will tell.

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A Cynic’s Reaction to the Draft

02 Thursday May 2019

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Off-Season

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I don’t think that you can know how good a team’s draft was until at least three years after the players were picked, and even then the process can be logical and the players don’t work out for injury or various other reasons. Not to mention that as someone who listens to draft podcasts but doesn’t actually watch college games I don’t have strong opinions on individual players.

I would suggest one of the reasons the Bengals have failed to make the playoffs the last three years is that the first four pick from the 2015 draft are not on the roster right now. You are never going to have every pick working out, but the combination of missing on the two offensive tackles selected in the first and second rounds in 2015 and letting Andrew Whitworth go undermined the offence because Andy Dalton is a quarterback who needs a clean pocket to operate and neither of Cedric Ogbuehi or Jake Fisher played well enough at tackle. I don’t generally believe that there are simple solutions to complex questions, but this is pretty clearly the start of the Bengals’ problems on offence. At least two of the last three seasons were also derailed by cluster injuries and that can happen to any team, but getting the depth of roster right is part of being a winning franchise and there are plenty of teams who are competitive nearly every year.

So, whilst I don’t think we can know which teams have drafted well last week, I can take a look at the moves I liked and what I have questions about.

I will start with the three franchises supported by the TWF team, although not my Bengals for once.

I am increasingly impressed by the Miami Dolphins’ approach this offseason and they sealed this by not reaching for a quarterback in the first round and then acquiring Josh Rosen for only a 2019 second round pick and a fifth round selection next year. This gives the Dolphins a top ten quarterback prospect for minimal draft capital, they only have to pay him $6 million dollars for the rest of his contract, and they have the fifth year team option for a first round draft pick. This gives them outstanding value and even if Rosen doesn’t work out they can draft a quarterback next season in a draft that is supposedly a better one for quarterbacks. The simple fact is that there is a clearly identifiable plan in in Miami, and they are sticking to it. That doesn’t mean it will definitely succeed, but they stand more chance of winning big by resetting and rebuilding than they did on the constant treadmill of not quite being good enough that has been the approach for the last few seasons.

As for the Bengals 2019 draft, the pick of tackle Jonah Williams seems very logical given our roster and quarterback. A lot of draft experts liked the player and enough said he was the best tackle in the draft so I’m pretty happy he will start somewhere along the line this year. There were comments about the Steelers trading up to the tenth pick to grab Devin Bush and hurting us in the process, but the Bengals did pick a linebacker in the third round and that would be the kind of move that I would usually associate with the Bengals given their approach to value and where they typically invest their draft capital. The Bengals have generally been really good at drafting for a number of years (the 2015 draft obviously being an exception) and whilst this never resulted in playoff success there were rarely criticisms of the talent ofnthe roster. The 2015 season is still the one that feels like it got away where Andy Dalton was playing as well as any quarterback in the league before he broke his thumb. I’ll be really interested to see they go under the new regime. I also like the trade up to grab quarterback Ryan Finley in the fourth round as whilst I don’t think there is a pressing need to replace Dalton right now and wasn’t expecting the Bengals to aggressively go after one, Finley has time to develop behind Dalton. The new regime looks to be building competition across their entire roster and this includes the quarterbacks’ room. I think it is a good idea to keep a flow of young quarterbacks into the room as you never know who you might found and these can often be traded away towards the end of their contract if they are not challenging your starters. Just look at how many quarterbacks developed behind Tom Brady that the Patriots have later traded away for picks and who have also helped them win games.

The Minnesota Vikings’ offseason has not created a lot of news in the corners of the NFL media I follow, and nor has their draft despite them selecting twelve players. I am not at all surprised that with their first four picks they addressed concerns on offence by picking a centre, guard, tight-end and running back. I will late Dan’s dad take it from here as he’s been following the Vikings’ offseason more closely than I have:

‘While I accept the excitement that the bringing in of new faces has for the fans I will admit to never totally understanding the process. I know that last year’s position determines where a team sits in the pecking order for the draft but allowing teams to trade up and down almost makes a mockery of the event. I’m sure some of you understand it better than I but to me it’s like explaining cricket to a French exchange student, or an American for that matter.

What I do understand are numbers and the comments of the GMs explaining their strategy. For example I understand that there was a record of 40 draft day trades across the league this year and the Vikings GM Rick Spielman was involved in 6 over the 2 days.

What did strike me though from looking at the names the Vikes went for is that firstly there were no marquee names, often there is hype around one or more names which cause a stir in their selections. Secondly the balance of positions throughout the team suggests a considered approach looking for general strengthening rather than a quick fix. Indeed ‘quick’ isn’t really the aim, it takes time to bring new blood into any team especially in the NFL when everyone has and works to very specific roles.

This year then, for me the big ticket item is Boise State running back Alexander Mattison. Only a 3rd round pick but Spielman’s patience was rewarded, managing to land N.C. State centre Garrett Bradbury in round one and Alabama tight-end Irv Smith Jr in second were on the list and fortune left them both available in what can become a lottery.

Trying to absorb all the changes it does seem clear that the selections have, as should always be the case, been ones which will ‘fit’ alongside what is already there. To me that is a huge positive. In a season long grind you don’t need ‘show ponies’ when well drilled and safe hands are what’s needed. Mike Zimmer is a builder of teams and scouting will have found the best targets. That said getting them from your wish list and through the draft takes luck and I think this year luck has been on the Vikings side.

Time will tell but for now it’s encouraging!’

I think that’s a pretty full summary but did want to pick up on a thing Dan’s Dad mentioned about augmenting your roster with the draft. Although I think that a team should look to build through the draft rather than relying on free-agency, I do think it is important to go into the draft with no glaring needs on your roster. You can have priorities but where I think teams get into trouble is reaching for a player that solves a problem rather than picking the best player available. It can be dangerous to go after a star free agent but you can still augment your roster carefully so come the draft you get what your players is available and sure, if you have comparably rated players and one is a weaker position you would take that player but it is dangerous to reach, and it looks like the Houston Texans did just that after the Eagles traded up above them to take Andre Dillard. Now, the tackle the Texans took could work out and I really hop Tytus Howard does work for them as I generally want teams to be successful but it does feel like the Texans just went down their list of tackles rather than their overall list.

If balancing your roster and picking best player available is my key concept going into the draft, then I would generally prefer a team to trade down rather than up, although this gets more flexible the deeper into the draft you go. I think the only player you should really move up for in the first round is a franchise quarterback unless there is a player deep in the first round that you think is worth coming back up for to get the fifth year option. That said, I didn’t mind the Pittsburgh Steelers’ moving up to ten to take linebacker Devin Bush as their defence has just not been the same since Ryan Shazier suffered his horrible injury and this should give them a real boost. I also understand why the New Orleans Saints have been so aggressive in trading picks to get the right players as they are trying to maximise their chances of getting Drew Brees another ring before he retires and they have to carry out a longer term reset.

I liked the Colts moving down to acquire more players as their rebuild continues to progress and I get the feeling they could be really competitive next year. I’ve not been a fan of Washington approach to the offseason in recent years but they have to be pretty happy that quarterback Dwayne Haskins fell to them at fifteen. It looks like the Baltimore Ravens didn’t miss a beat in their first post Ozzie Newsome draft and I suspect the AFC North is going to very competitive this season.

The Denver Broncos did well to move down and pick up and extra second round pick yet still get quarterback Drew Lock in the second round. The worry will be that apart from Peyton Manning so far John Elway has failed to find a franchise player at the position he himself was so good at. There’s time for Lock to develop behind Joe Flacco who the Broncos traded for in the off-season, but Elway really needs one of them to work out soon or questions really might be asked by ownership about if Elway can get them another Super Bowl.

However, if there is one team where ownership should be asking questions it is the New York Giants given that a year after refusing to listen to offers and picking Saquon Barkley with the second pick they ignored the order of most draft grading and picked Duke quarterback Daniel Jones. If he works out and plays better than Sam Darnold then David Gettleman can prove his doubters wrong to a degree, but Jones would likely would have been available at pick seventeen, which they got for trading away Odell Beckham and who did they get with the seventeenth pick? A run stuffing defensive tackle to replace the one they traded away during last season which hardly seems to be a good return for one of the most dynamic receivers in the game. As I say Gettleman could prove his doubters wrong but I don’t like the way he’s gone about this and the aim isn’t to pick a quarterback that does better than the one he had last season, it’s to win a Super Bowl and that feels a long way away for the Giants as currently constructed.

Still, the only way to tell for sure is to wait three years and see how things pan out so lets sit back and wait out what is the quietest bit of the NFL year, but it’s the beginning of May so before you know it we’ll be starting training camps and gearing up for the one hundredth NFL season.

AFC Preview

04 Tuesday Sep 2018

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18-09-04 AFC

With the new season only days away I thought I would take you through a whistle-stop tour of the league starting with an AFC preview and I’ll give the NFC teams their own post before the Philadelphia Eagle and Atlanta Falcons get things under way on Thursday.

I don’t particularly like making predictions as there are too many variables and injury luck is can be such a huge part of team success so I’ll be breaking the divisions up into favourites, competitive, and likely to struggle as I work my way round the division compass so without further ado let’s make a start on the .

AFC North

Much as it is painful for a Bengals fan to say it, the favourite to take the AFC North division is still the Pittsburgh Steelers. They may have questions at linebacker thanks to Ryan Shazier’s injury, but the defence still finished top ten last year by DVOA in and the options in their offence are still terrifying. Time is ticking for Ben Roethlisberger but as long as he doesn’t suffer a dramatic fall off then this is going to be one of the teams of the conference who should have their eyes on the Super Bowl.

The AFC North is always a tough division, and even when the Browns are struggling they are often a tough out, but not so much under Hue Jackson. However, with a defence that has looked good in pre-season and the additions of Jarvis Landy and Tyrod Taylor as well as new offensive co-ordinator Toddy Haley it at least feels like the infrastructure for success is more solid. In a position to let rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield develop and not rush him I think the Browns will be more competitive than last season, but whether their ill-discipline (they got penalised a lot in pre-season) will allow them to win games I don’t know. I think we’ll know a lot more about this team by the end of the first four games.

The Baltimore Ravens are another team who are perennially competitive but had to do it with defence and special teams last year. With a kicker like Justin Tucker you can mask a lot of deficiencies in offence but the thing the Ravens coaches might be most happy about having drafted Lamar Jackson this year is the fire it seems to have lit under long time quarterback Joe Flacco. He may also have been helped by better receiving options and being healthy in the offseason for the first time in two years but if the Ravens’ Super Bowl winning play caller can lead the offensive to a better ranking than twenty-first by DVOA the Ravens will be right in contention for the playoffs again.

I’ve written a fair amount about the Cincinnati Bengals this pre-season and it is telling that neither of the offensive tackles two years that they drafted to prepare for a transition of talent have worked out whilst Andrew Whitworth looked great for the LA Rams last year. With new playbooks on both sides of the ball there have been a lot of changes to coaching and the roster. Whilst the Bengals have another young team there seemed to be a lot to like and if the O-line gels, then Andy Dalton should have a much easier time finding his myriad of skill players. I’m not pencilling them into the playoffs, but I’m not ruling it out and I wasn’t sure that would be the case when it was announced the Marvin Lewis was coming back.

AFC East

Is this the year that the New England Patriots falter? For the first time Tom Brady was not ever present through the off-season, their first round offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn ruptured his Achillies after they let starting left tackle Nate Solder leave in free-agency, and this was a team that went to the Super Bowl with a defence ranked thirty-first in the league by DVOA so they can ill afford an offensive wobble. I think we’re all at the point where we’ll believe Tom Brady is done when he has signed his retirement papers, but what will help them is that none of the rest of the division are exactly standing up as challengers at the moment and so the Patriots look to be favourites still. This could finally change though.

The Buffalo Bills made the playoffs for the first time in eighteen attempts last seasons, but they responded to this by cutting the quarterback that got them there, not signing the linebacker that led the league in tackles and trading their left tackle to the Bengals in the draft manoeuvres required to get their quarterback of the future. Have traded away AJ McCarron they have opted to go with rookie Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman as their QBs, but whilst Peterman has looked good in pre-season and Allen has flashed, the Bengals defensive line had a field day against Buffalo’s o-line and it could be a very long season for whoever starts. I was impressed with everything Sean McDermott did last season bar benching Tyrod Taylor but I don’t think this season’s roster is better than last years and I have a nasty feeling they will struggle for a lot of the season.

If you trade away your best offensive and defensive players for chemistry reasons, you had better have an awful lot of talent coming in and I’m not sure that Miami Dolphins do. I thought they had a good draft and I would say Adam Gase is a good coach but I’m not at all sure of the roster construction and this feels like the latest in a long series of make or break seasons for Ryan Tannehill. I believe that Gase can keep the locker room together and make them competitive but it would not surprise me if they fall into a difficult season. Nothing would make me happier than to be proved wrong, if only to cheer Dan through the season.

Finally we have the New York Jets, and I though Todd Bowles did an excellent job of coaching with a lack of talent on the roster last season and not sure many other coaches would have got as many wins. The most ready of the rookie quarterbacks fell into their laps in the draft and Sam Darnold looked good enough in pre-season that the Jets traded Teddy Bridgewater to the New Orleans Saints. I think it will take another or season or two to turn things round and I don’t know if Bowles will get the chance to complete the job, but I can see the Jets equalling their record of last season. There will be ups and downs with a rookie quarterback but the real question for this season is have the Jets finally got a franchise QB. Everything else after that can wait.

AFC South

The Jacksonville Jaguars continued to build their defence, stuck with Blake Bortles and their big free agent signing was a offensive guard. I thought that Bortles might have learnt a thing or two in last season’s playoff run but with the exodus at receiver and the injury to Marqise Lee this team will be as reliant as ever on their defence and the run game. The good news is that the defence will be no less scary and they should rightly be considered the favourites for this division.

The Houston Texans may have only won four games last season, but they revealed they could have a bright future as long as the young quarterback Deshaun Watson can recover his blistering form from last season before his knee injury. With the defence hoping a number of players stay healthy, including JJ Watt this could be really good team even if the offensive line looks to be a big problem. There are a lot of ifs there so whilst the Texans will start out competitively, how long they will remain so is the big question.

The Tennessee Titans ground their way into the playoffs with a run first offence and a defence that ranked twenty-first in the league by DVOA. This was not enough to save Mike Mularkey his job and there rookie head coach Mike Vraebel is hoping that Matt LaFleur can revitalise the offence and fourth year quarterback Marcus Mariota. The coaches with links to Bill Belichick have not necessary flourished as head coaches and Vraebel has limited experience as the man with ultimate responsibility so I am very curious to see how he goes. The honest answer is I’m not sure so this is one of the teams we’ll need to follow closely through the start of the season.

The Indianapolis Colts have struggled mightily with Andrew Luck being out injured but this also laid bare the problems with the rest of the roster and whilst there are signs that things are improving in the second year of Chris Ballard’s rebuild, a lot will depend on Andrew Lucks surgically repaired and extensively rehabbed shoulder. The good news is that he’s back to starting but new head coach Frank Reich will be hoping that he can get enough from his franchise quarterback that the season can be a success, but I have a feeling that being competitive would qualify as just that and would be a good place to start.

AFC South

The Kansas City Chiefs won the division last year and I have too much faith in Andy Reid to see this team as anything other than competitive and I would place them as favourites to win the division. That is despite trading Alex Smith to Washington to promote Patrick Mahomes as the starter after a season where the young quarterback sat on the bench. Mahomes has the arms to make use of the myriad of skills players the Chiefs can use in their offence that has borrowed liberally from college, whilst their defence was only ranked thirtieth by DVOA last year when they won the division. It wouldn’t take much to improve that ranking and with the potential of their offence the Chiefs could be one of the most fun teams to watch this season.

The other potential favourite in this division could be the LA Chargers but it would require them to get out of their own way and they couldn’t quite manage that last season. The abiding image of Philip Rivers for me these days is a player somehow functioning as an effective quarterback despite minimal protection from his line. The defence was just outside of the top ten with a fearsome pass rush led by Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa and they should be competitive again this season. The problem is that they have a nasty habit of losing close games and their ‘home’ games in LA were frequently more like home games for the opposition thanks to fan turnout. I’d like to think they can improve but I’m not willing to just outright declare it, although I’d be very willing to be proved wrong again.

I’m not entirely sure where to begin with the currently Oakland soon to be Las Vegas Raiders. The big move of the off-season would have been luring Jon Gruden out of the commentary booth nine years after he last coached except they have just traded Khalil Mack, one of the best young defensive players in the league, to the Chicago Bears. The reasoning is that the Mack’s contract demands were just too big, and the Bears wasted no time in signing Mack to a six year deal with $90 million guaranteed days after Aaron Donald signed a contract with $87 million guaranteed. The difference between the three franchises is that the Rams still have a young quarterback on their rookie contract as does the Bears, whilst the Raiders have already signed Derek Carr to a five year extension. The issue is that Gruden has been out of the league for a while, even if he was staying plugged into the NFL through his media gig, and the defence his brother Jay Gruden [I appear to have gone made, too many ex-Bengal coordinators involved as it is in fact Paul Guenther who is the new defensive coordinator – Ed.] takes over was ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA with Khalil Mack. I’m really not sure what to expect out of the Raiders this year, and whilst I can see the salary cap argument to an extent (I don’t study it hard, maybe that’s a task for next off-season) the Mack trade amongst others does nothing to help the Raiders now and I think this club will be in for a very interesting time this year.

Last year’s AFC West strugglers the Denver Broncos will be hoping that the addition of Case Keenum at quarterback will be enough of an upgrade to the offence to give the still competitive if retooled defence a chance of winning games. In the one game I saw them this preseason the offensive line still looked to be a problem but after a good pre-season from Chad Kelly, the Paxton Lynch development plan has finally been shelved. It is way too soon to question a GM who has won a Super Bowl and given his history as franchise quarterback you would think that the job is John Elway’s as long as he wants it. However, whilst he’s made a number of sharp moves in free-agency, his record in the draft is a bit patchier and his choice of Vance Joseph as head coach didn’t exactly yield the early returns that Elway would have hoped for. Still, if either Keenum or Kelly can make the offence competitive then the Broncos will be a team no one will want to face, especially at home and that could be enough for them to be in the playoff race come December.

The Playoff Fallen

20 Saturday Jan 2018

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So I need to catch up with the teams who have departed the playoffs so having started this post last week, here’s my now finished run through the playoff fallen starting with the losing wild card teams.

The first team to fall were the Kansas City Chiefs who managed to lose a game to the Tennessee Titans that they were leading 21-3 at half time. The Chiefs have been up and down this season with a significant mid-season lull that gave way to a four game win streak coming into their playoff game against the Titans. However, a number of factors combined for the Chiefs to lose this Wildcard game and demonstrated one of the warts that has affected them all year. The defence of the Chiefs has had problems ever since safety Eric Berry ruptured his Achilies, but their overall ranking of thirtieth by DVOA and dead last against the run showed up in this game when the Chiefs failed to stop the Titans’ second half come back and Derrick Henry finishing the game with one hundred and fifty-six rushing yards. The Chief offence also came to a sputtering stop once Travis Kelce left the game with a concussion meaning the Titans could focus on stopping the speedy Chiefs receivers with two deep safeties. The Chiefs further played into this by only giving Kareem Hunt elven carries in the entire game and running Alex Smith at inopportune moments. The Cheifs’ recent playoff record is also clearly on their usually very loud crowd’s mind as it got quieter the better the Titans did, although I defy any fan to be confident when the opposing quarterback throws a touchdown pass to himself.

This could well be Alex Smith’s final game for the Chiefs given his 1-4 playoff record in the five season that he and head coach Andy Reid have been with the franchise and with Patrick Mahomes waiting in the wings. I don’t believe this loss can really be blamed on Smith and they could stick with him as they develop a still raw Mahomes but patience does seem to be wearing thin for a section of their fans and the narrative seems to be that Smith will leave in the offseason. Their current offensive co-ordinator Matt Nagy has already left to be the new head coach of the Chicago Bears and with Smith’s current playoff record perhaps it is time to change with a new coordinator coming in. The defence will also need an overhaul given the age of a number of players and their reliance on a twenty-nine year old safety who will be recovering from an Achilles injury next season. In recent years the Chiefs have been competitive but their approach last offseason seemed to be split between short term and long term agendas and I am curious to see how they approach this one.

The second team to lose on wild car weekend were the LA Rams whose remarkable turnaround season couldn’t overcome the playoff experience of the Atlanta Falcons whose defence was able to stifle the Rams offence. This was mainly due to excellent tackling against the short routes so although Todd Gurley did get over one hundred yards on the ground, he was not able to dominated in the way he has for much of the season. As frustrating as this loss was, part of the problem were repeated special teams miscues by Pharoh Cooper early in the game, which was not a reflection of his Pro Bowl special teams play through the year. Still, this was a season of marked improvement for the Rams with plenty of young players to grow with their coach and you would expect them to be competitive next season but it has to be hard for Andrew Whitworth to lose another wild card playoff game.

The Buffalo Bills scraped into the playoffs on the back of a final drive fourth down touchdown pass from the Bengals’ Andy Dalton but they couldn’t overcome the Jaguars in their first playoff game in eighteen years. The Bills defence managed to contain the Jaguars offence by committing to stopping the run and daring Blake Bortles to beat them in his first playoff game. This plan could have worked if Tyrod Taylor didn’t have nearly as bad a game as Bortles and LeSean McCoy was fully healthy, but the offence couldn’t do enough and the game was lost 10-3. This was still a turnaround for the Bills and first year head coach Sean McDermott has things to work on but offensive co-ordinator Rick Dennison paid the price and the Bills will be one of several teams looking for a quarterback this offseason. The Bills could continue their improvement, but they will be limited until they get a quarterback and offence in place that everyone in the franchise believes in.

The final wild card game saw the Carolina Panthers lose to the New Orleans Saints for the third time this year. The Panthers have been very solid on defence all year, but their offence has been very up and down. A slow start was not that surprising given that Cam Newton was coming off shoulder surgery in the offseason and the Panthers were trying a new approach, but this never really took and the offence didn’t really start to work until Newton began to run more. This made the play of Newton very important for how the offence went, which is not that unusual for a quarterback but Newton’s size ability to run, whilst being a dangerous weapon, has to make up for his volatility in the passing game. When Newton is on he is as dangerous a quarterback as there is in the league, but with injuries at receiver (the Panthers also traded away Kelvin Benjamin during the season) and Newton’s favourite target tight end Greg Olsen battling with a foot injury that was clearly still affecting him, he was not able to beat the Saints despite playing well. Going into the offseason the Panthers have replaced offensive co-ordinator Mike Shula with Norv Turner so a new offence will be installed in the summer and it will be fascinating to see how these changes work and how Newton takes to although at least he will be able to practise this offseason.

Moving on to last week’s games and the first team to fall were the Atlanta Falcons who couldn’t match their performance against the Rams when they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in a tight competitive game. The Falcons were only able to score ten points on the league’s fifth ranked defence by DVOA but whilst the offensive rankings of the Falcons don’t look bad (tenth in passing and sixteenth rushing by DVOA) it does feel like this unit underachieved given the calibre of players available. Yes some regression from last year’s stellar performance was to be expected but it has been a difficult year for Steve Sarkisian in taking over from Kyle Shanahan and whilst he is coming back next season, there will be pressure to improve or the discontent could cause real problems. This could be true for the whole staff given the painful playoff exit and the Super Bowl last year given that both games were winnable. Still, if the offence can be brought round and the defence continues its rise the Falcons could be very formidable next season.

The Tennessee Titans had done well to win their first game against the Chiefs, but there are limits and it was always going to be a tough job to go into Gillette stadium and beat the New England Patriots. To their credit, the Titans kept it competitive for a quarter and took a 7-0 lead before the Patriots shook off the rust from their bye week and ran out easy 35-14 winners. The Titans were pretty average in all three phases of the game this season and actually ranked three places lower by overall DVOA at eighteenth compared to last season. Despite getting a playoff win head coach Mike Mularkey was unable to come to an agreement with the Titans’ front office and so they will be looking for someone new to develop Marcus Mariota. The team definitely improved under Mularkey with a pair of winning seasons but the play of their young quarterback does not look to have progressed as you would hope and I have to think they are looking for a new offensive philosophy and someone who can make one of the most dynamic quarterback in recent college history look like that in the pro game. Given the success that the Chiefs and others have had in incorporating elements from the college game into their offence this does seem achievable, but it all depends on who takes over. Still, at least the Titans have progressed and they are no longer a team devoid of talent and identity, but there are some very big decisions to be made this offseason.

The NFL had great pair of games on Sunday and the opener saw the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars 45-42 and crash out the playoffs at home. The Steelers had got a first round bye with a 13-3 record and finished the regular season ranked inside the top ten in all three phases of the game by DVOA. However, there were two problems that sank them in this game. I am reluctant to talk about motivation and whether the players were looking past the Jaguars to a conference championship game at the Patriots, a matchup that many had expected for a lot of the season, but what I can say is that the Steelers started slow. The Jaguars got out to a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter, and whilst the Steelers were able to get back into the game, they were never able to get closer than seven points until the very last second of the game with a meaningless touchdown that came too late. The Steelers offence did manage to put up forty-two points against one of the best defences in the league but it was not easy and there had to be a lot of impressive catches and fourth down conversions to get them. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ defence never looked the same one Ryan Shazier was lost to the spinal contusion he picked up in the Steelers’ brutal game against the Bengals in week thirteen. The talk has mostly been about fourth down conversions and the slow start, but the Steelers defence let a league average offence with Blake Bortles as their quarterback put up forty-five points on them and that has to hurt.

Some changes are already taking place. There appears to have been discord between offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger but Haley’s contract has expired and he is not being renewed. It looks like quarterbacks coach Randy Fichtner will replace him and Roethlisberger looks to be a lot more committed to coming back next season than he was last offseason with all his talk of retirement. Still, given that Shazier had to have spine stabilisation surgery and as far as we know hasn’t walked yet, let alone be anywhere near playing football again (if that is even a possibility), the Steelers will need to address the defence again this offseason but it feels like they should be able to take another deep run next season.

If the first game on Sunday saw an upset against a veteran quarterback, the second saw a miraculous play knock out the New Orleans Saints and their future hall of fame quarterback. The Saints finally managed to assemble a defence that could do enough to get Drew Brees into the playoffs again, ably helped by the league’s best rushing attack by DVOA. Two all NFL rookies helped with this turn around and having seen off the Panthers last week, it looked like the Saints were going to beat the second seeded Minnesota Vikings when they found themselves on fourth down with seconds to go, no timeouts, and were one point behind the Saints. However, another one of the Saints’ rookies, safety Marcus Williams who already had an interception in this game made a horrible play as Stefon Diggs caught a ball in front of him. All Williams had to do was stop Diggs from getting out of bounds and hold him up so Diggs could be tackled in bounds, but he came flying past Diggs without touching him allowing Diggs to turn and suddenly there was no one between him and the end zone. The Vikings fans fortunes finally changed as the miraculous play went their way and the Saints promising season came to a shuddering halt.

That play will haunt Williams all offseason, whilst the franchise will be worrying about re-signing Drew Brees who is an unrestricted free agent. However, given the way this year’s team played, and the potential for their rookie players to develop further next year then it is hard not to see Brees back playing for the Saints and them being very competitive next season. After a number of years where they were asking Brees to do too much, they now look setup to compete as long as Brees is willing and able to play like he did this year. We should make the most of being able to watch him whilst we still can.

Why Can’t We Have Nice Things?

14 Thursday Dec 2017

Posted by in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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With the loss of Carson Wentz for the rest of the season it really feels like NFL fans just can’t have nice things this year.

That said, as upsetting as it was to have the team with the best record in the NFC lose its starting quarterback, it still pales into insignificance when compared to the spinal injury the Steelers’ linebacker Ryan Shazier picked up the week before.

I was travelling to and from Newcastle last week and so didn’t really have time to write about what happened during the Pittsburgh Steelers Monday night clash with the Cincinnati Bengals in the right kind of detail and I’m still not entirely sure what the correct thing is to say. I didn’t enjoy watching the game, there was a sense of inevitability about the Steelers come back and I am very bored of the lack of discipline and the chippiness in these games. Particularly on the Bengals side but the sight of the various hits that concussed players given what had happened to Shazier was difficult to watch. We know the game is dangerous, and at some level we have to make peace with that, but that Monday night game showed a side of football that has to brought under control and that doesn’t include the play where Shazier was hurt.

To be honest I just want him to be okay, and I don’t mean a return to football. Given that the man had spinal stabilisation surgery, I want him to be able to walk around and lead his life.

Last week also saw firings in New York and Cleveland with the Giants clearing house when they fired both GM Jerry Reese and head coach Ben McAdoo whilst the Browns let go of Sashi Brown.

There have been problems with the roster for a while in New York and so letting go Jerry Reese despite him being involved in two Super Bowl wins but there is talent to build upon for whoever takes over, although the issue of a quarterback will be the major headache.

As for the Browns, I don’t really know how much was the quarterbacks they didn’t take in the draft; the failure of the AJ McCarron trade due to the paperwork not being sent in on time; or the relationship with the rest of the front office, owner, and head coach Hue Jackson who is apparently safe for now but some mix of these things got Sashi Brown fired and they have already replaced him with John Dorsey. Only time will tell how much this will affect their approach, but I would imagine something will happen around the quarterback position ahead of next season. I’m also not entirely sure that Hue Jackson will survive, particularly if the Browns fail to register a win this season despite his current vote of confidence.

I really hope that things turns round for the Browns, they have such a loyal fan base despite the woeful performance of the team for a number of years.

And now a recap of the week fourteen picks and tonight’s game.

Gee:      Week 14   8-8                     Overall   117-92
Dan:      Week 14   6-10                  Overall   108-101

Broncos @ Colts (+2.5)

This not exactly a game to set pulse rates racing and with the Denver Broncos winning their first game since their week five bye on Sunday visiting the 3-10 Indianapolis Colts. The Broncos have not won on the road all season so is this the week that they start? I don’t know is the honest answer and whilst I could regret this, I’m reverting to home team Thursday night rules and grabbing a couple of points unenthusiastically although I am curious to see how this game plays out.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Conference Championship Previews

22 Sunday Jan 2017

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It is hardly surprising that the conference championship games look really good, but they have a lot to live up to after the game Dallas and Green Bay put on last week.

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons don’t just have a good offence, they have one that has produced numbers up there with some of the best there have been. You might not see Matt Ryan making the kind of amazingly athletic throws that Aaron Rodgers has made look routine over recent weeks, but he is in firm control of an offence that allows him to distribute the ball to a wide range of options in the passing game, whilst Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have proved themselves to be a highly effective combination out of the back field. It is hardly a surprise to see the coordinator behind such a season be sought after as a head coach, but fans in Atlanta will be hoping that this hasn’t been too much of a distraction for Kyle Shanahan as he prepares for this game. The Falcons are going up against a Packers defence that has been injured for a lot of the season, and they will be hoping to do enough to allow their offence to keep up with the Falcons. The secondary will have to work really hard to keep up with the Falcons’ offence and this could be a game too far for them.

The Packers have ridden the red hot play of Aaron Rodgers over the back end of the season and into the playoffs. The injuries at running back have meant that Rodgers is carrying this team with his arm, but he has found the right balance of extending plays in the pocket and playing within the structure of the offence to keep the Packers winning. That said, he now has receivers injured and it is hard not to think that Jordy Nelson will be limited by his rib injuries even if he does make the field in this game. The Falcons defence has not been good this season, but they have had enough pass rush to take advantage of the leads they often play with to make life difficult for the opposition, even if the majority of their sacks are accounted for by Vic Beasley who led the league through the regular season.

This could very well be a spectacular shoot out, but I do wonder if the injuries that the Packers are accruing could just sink them despite Rodgers extraordinary play. I certainly wouldn’t count out the Falcons and I’m really looking forward to this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

This is the sixth year in a row that the Patriots have made the conference championship game in a display of remarkable consistency. However, they are coming into this game off the back of a rocky performance that saw Tom Brady rattled a little and double his interception tally for the year with a pair of interceptions to go with the two he threw in the regular season. That said, it is hard not to expect continued excellent play from Brady who may not have ever made the spectacular kinds of plays that Rodgers is capable of, but runs his offence with complete mastery of the system. A system that changes week to week depending on how they choose to attack the defence they are facing. The Steelers defence will pose a serious test as they have enough experience not to be overawed by the situation and have been playing incredibly well over the back end of the season and into the playoffs. Their outside linebackers Bud Dupree and James Harrison have been getting pressure and causing problems, whilst inside backers Timmons and Shazier have looked good in the middle, and you can see the Steelers mimicking the up the central pressure the Texans used last week to get pressure on Brady.

If the defence of the Steelers have come together, then the offence has been a little off this season. The passing game has not been what we have come to expect over recent seasons despite Antonio Brown still being one of the premier receivers in the game. The Steelers have responded to this by handing the ball to Le’Veon Bell more in a tactic that has paid off big time. The patient runner can eat up the clock whilst racking up the yards, and this tactic not only makes the most sense for moving the ball for the Steelers in this game, but it also could limit the time Brady has on the field, which is no bad thing. The New England defence has not been spectacular by numbers, except they lead the league in scoring defence, which is one those key stats that really does help you win football games. They don’t really have a lot of big name players as far as the league is concerned, with Devin McCourty the only Pro Bowl selection, but they are schemed very well each week and you can see them planning to stop the run, bracket Antonio Brown, and daring the other Steelers to beat them.

The Steelers very definitely have a template that can beat the Patriots and will not be intimidated by going into New England. This may not be the offensive spectacle that the earlier game will likely be, but I see this as a very competitive game that could go either way. As football fans, what else could want from the conference championship games?