Tag Archives: LeSean McCoy

AAF: Cooper Kupp

03 Sunday Nov 2019

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Thanks to having a gig on Halloween I knew that I was going to be short on time to look at coaching tape this week, but I knew I wanted to find a way to keep looking at some tape on these weeks when that was the case so I’m trying something a little different this week for my Amateur Adventures in Film. I was at the Bengals at Rams London game last Sunday and so I decided to look at Cooper Kupp’s seven catches for two hundred and twenty yards to find out what went wrong as the dirty secret is that when you are at a game, it’s still not possible to tell exactly what is happening on the field and all I knew was that Kupp kept turning up in the middle of the field wide open.

Having gone through those catches and several of his drops the quick answer is what happened a lot of the time was the Bengals’ defence. Now, I don’t mean to diminish Kupp who is a shifty receiver who leads the team in receiving yards and touchdowns and clearly played well, but whilst there were a couple of plays where he beat coverage and another when Jared Goff made a hell of a throw deep, most of the time he was open because a combination of offensive scheme and defensive play.

Now, the communication in the Bengals’ secondary that seemed to be a problem early in the game looked to smooth out a bit later in the game, or at least there wasn’t the obvious communication between the Bengals’ secondary players, but Tony McRae who seemed to be following Kupp all game had problems all the way through. Now in fairness, a lot of the time McRae was struggling because of natural picks set up in the Rams offensive plays. You are not allowed to block a defender down field as a receiver, but one the things that makes the Rams offence tick is the bunches of receivers running routes that takes one defensive player into the other or forces the player to go round the first receiver to get to the second. In the plays that I watched from this game, Kupp was moved around the formation a lot and was also motioned pre-snap. This allowed Kupp to get away from McRae and find lots of space in the Bengals secondary. Despite McRae seeming to follow Kupp around the field, the Bengals looked to be often using zone concepts and Kupp kept finding gaps between the second level defenders and the deep safety.

The two exceptions to this in terms of big plays by Kupp were very different in execution. The first one that obviously leaped out of this game was a vicious double fake play towards the end of the second quarter that was a league wide highlight. It sill feels a little like overkill for me as the Rams were moving the ball well enough already, but to be fair the teams were level at this point and it was this game that got them the lead. It was a beautiful play as the Rams lined up with 11 personnel (one running back and one tight-end) in a singleback formation. Cooper Kupp ran a jet sweep motion across the formation from the left before the snap and took a hand-off from Goff before tossing the ball to Robert Woods running a reverse behind the formation so taking the ball back behind the line. The clever bit was that Kupp kept running and turned up the right side line so when Woods tossed the ball back to Goff, Kupp was wide open as the Bengals’ defence had reacted to the reverse with BW Webb dropping into a second high safety. Kupp catches the pass to him in space, helped by Webb turning the long way round to get back to Kupp and slipping over as tries to get back enabling Kupp to fly up the sideline and score the touchdown. Now William Jackson III came across the field  from the opposite corner position and if he’d committed to the tackle straight away he might have saved the touchdown, but high speed tackles when a receiver in space is not easy and the damage had already been done before his hesitation allowed the score. In fairness, this is the second week in a row where I have seen a player involved in play-action fake end up catching the ball, and it is devastating as whilst the defence can react to the play, it is very hard to do so and keep account of the player involved in the first fake action. It was this beautiful play design that manufactures the opportunity to score, made all the more so when you can watch the all twenty-two and see how it worked out.

The other big play that I wanted to mention was a forty yard in the Rams’ final touchdown scoring drive on third and ten where the Rams had 11 personnel on the field but this time in a shotgun formation. Once again Kupp motioned across the formation to line up as the inside slot of three receivers on the left of the formation, only this time he ran a simple post that saw him followed buy McRae (although he was behind for most of the coverage) but also doubled by safety Shawn Williams and yet Goff was able to drop the ball over the pair of Bengals’ defensive backs for Kupp to make the deep catch and keep the drive alive. For all the talk of Goff’s pay this season, this was a really nice throw.

As I said, the main thing I took away from this game was the way Sean McVay used route combinations to get his receivers open, which Cooper Kupp really benefited from as well as taking advantage of the problems the Bengals had in coverage, which is not surprising given they are ranked thirtieth in the league in pass defence DVOA. It is still frustrating to see your team lose, but at least I now know what happened and the fake reverse flea flicker as I’m calling that spectacular play that yielded a sixty-five yard touchdown for Kupp was a thing of beauty.

The Playoff Fallen

20 Saturday Jan 2018

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So I need to catch up with the teams who have departed the playoffs so having started this post last week, here’s my now finished run through the playoff fallen starting with the losing wild card teams.

The first team to fall were the Kansas City Chiefs who managed to lose a game to the Tennessee Titans that they were leading 21-3 at half time. The Chiefs have been up and down this season with a significant mid-season lull that gave way to a four game win streak coming into their playoff game against the Titans. However, a number of factors combined for the Chiefs to lose this Wildcard game and demonstrated one of the warts that has affected them all year. The defence of the Chiefs has had problems ever since safety Eric Berry ruptured his Achilies, but their overall ranking of thirtieth by DVOA and dead last against the run showed up in this game when the Chiefs failed to stop the Titans’ second half come back and Derrick Henry finishing the game with one hundred and fifty-six rushing yards. The Chief offence also came to a sputtering stop once Travis Kelce left the game with a concussion meaning the Titans could focus on stopping the speedy Chiefs receivers with two deep safeties. The Chiefs further played into this by only giving Kareem Hunt elven carries in the entire game and running Alex Smith at inopportune moments. The Cheifs’ recent playoff record is also clearly on their usually very loud crowd’s mind as it got quieter the better the Titans did, although I defy any fan to be confident when the opposing quarterback throws a touchdown pass to himself.

This could well be Alex Smith’s final game for the Chiefs given his 1-4 playoff record in the five season that he and head coach Andy Reid have been with the franchise and with Patrick Mahomes waiting in the wings. I don’t believe this loss can really be blamed on Smith and they could stick with him as they develop a still raw Mahomes but patience does seem to be wearing thin for a section of their fans and the narrative seems to be that Smith will leave in the offseason. Their current offensive co-ordinator Matt Nagy has already left to be the new head coach of the Chicago Bears and with Smith’s current playoff record perhaps it is time to change with a new coordinator coming in. The defence will also need an overhaul given the age of a number of players and their reliance on a twenty-nine year old safety who will be recovering from an Achilles injury next season. In recent years the Chiefs have been competitive but their approach last offseason seemed to be split between short term and long term agendas and I am curious to see how they approach this one.

The second team to lose on wild car weekend were the LA Rams whose remarkable turnaround season couldn’t overcome the playoff experience of the Atlanta Falcons whose defence was able to stifle the Rams offence. This was mainly due to excellent tackling against the short routes so although Todd Gurley did get over one hundred yards on the ground, he was not able to dominated in the way he has for much of the season. As frustrating as this loss was, part of the problem were repeated special teams miscues by Pharoh Cooper early in the game, which was not a reflection of his Pro Bowl special teams play through the year. Still, this was a season of marked improvement for the Rams with plenty of young players to grow with their coach and you would expect them to be competitive next season but it has to be hard for Andrew Whitworth to lose another wild card playoff game.

The Buffalo Bills scraped into the playoffs on the back of a final drive fourth down touchdown pass from the Bengals’ Andy Dalton but they couldn’t overcome the Jaguars in their first playoff game in eighteen years. The Bills defence managed to contain the Jaguars offence by committing to stopping the run and daring Blake Bortles to beat them in his first playoff game. This plan could have worked if Tyrod Taylor didn’t have nearly as bad a game as Bortles and LeSean McCoy was fully healthy, but the offence couldn’t do enough and the game was lost 10-3. This was still a turnaround for the Bills and first year head coach Sean McDermott has things to work on but offensive co-ordinator Rick Dennison paid the price and the Bills will be one of several teams looking for a quarterback this offseason. The Bills could continue their improvement, but they will be limited until they get a quarterback and offence in place that everyone in the franchise believes in.

The final wild card game saw the Carolina Panthers lose to the New Orleans Saints for the third time this year. The Panthers have been very solid on defence all year, but their offence has been very up and down. A slow start was not that surprising given that Cam Newton was coming off shoulder surgery in the offseason and the Panthers were trying a new approach, but this never really took and the offence didn’t really start to work until Newton began to run more. This made the play of Newton very important for how the offence went, which is not that unusual for a quarterback but Newton’s size ability to run, whilst being a dangerous weapon, has to make up for his volatility in the passing game. When Newton is on he is as dangerous a quarterback as there is in the league, but with injuries at receiver (the Panthers also traded away Kelvin Benjamin during the season) and Newton’s favourite target tight end Greg Olsen battling with a foot injury that was clearly still affecting him, he was not able to beat the Saints despite playing well. Going into the offseason the Panthers have replaced offensive co-ordinator Mike Shula with Norv Turner so a new offence will be installed in the summer and it will be fascinating to see how these changes work and how Newton takes to although at least he will be able to practise this offseason.

Moving on to last week’s games and the first team to fall were the Atlanta Falcons who couldn’t match their performance against the Rams when they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in a tight competitive game. The Falcons were only able to score ten points on the league’s fifth ranked defence by DVOA but whilst the offensive rankings of the Falcons don’t look bad (tenth in passing and sixteenth rushing by DVOA) it does feel like this unit underachieved given the calibre of players available. Yes some regression from last year’s stellar performance was to be expected but it has been a difficult year for Steve Sarkisian in taking over from Kyle Shanahan and whilst he is coming back next season, there will be pressure to improve or the discontent could cause real problems. This could be true for the whole staff given the painful playoff exit and the Super Bowl last year given that both games were winnable. Still, if the offence can be brought round and the defence continues its rise the Falcons could be very formidable next season.

The Tennessee Titans had done well to win their first game against the Chiefs, but there are limits and it was always going to be a tough job to go into Gillette stadium and beat the New England Patriots. To their credit, the Titans kept it competitive for a quarter and took a 7-0 lead before the Patriots shook off the rust from their bye week and ran out easy 35-14 winners. The Titans were pretty average in all three phases of the game this season and actually ranked three places lower by overall DVOA at eighteenth compared to last season. Despite getting a playoff win head coach Mike Mularkey was unable to come to an agreement with the Titans’ front office and so they will be looking for someone new to develop Marcus Mariota. The team definitely improved under Mularkey with a pair of winning seasons but the play of their young quarterback does not look to have progressed as you would hope and I have to think they are looking for a new offensive philosophy and someone who can make one of the most dynamic quarterback in recent college history look like that in the pro game. Given the success that the Chiefs and others have had in incorporating elements from the college game into their offence this does seem achievable, but it all depends on who takes over. Still, at least the Titans have progressed and they are no longer a team devoid of talent and identity, but there are some very big decisions to be made this offseason.

The NFL had great pair of games on Sunday and the opener saw the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars 45-42 and crash out the playoffs at home. The Steelers had got a first round bye with a 13-3 record and finished the regular season ranked inside the top ten in all three phases of the game by DVOA. However, there were two problems that sank them in this game. I am reluctant to talk about motivation and whether the players were looking past the Jaguars to a conference championship game at the Patriots, a matchup that many had expected for a lot of the season, but what I can say is that the Steelers started slow. The Jaguars got out to a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter, and whilst the Steelers were able to get back into the game, they were never able to get closer than seven points until the very last second of the game with a meaningless touchdown that came too late. The Steelers offence did manage to put up forty-two points against one of the best defences in the league but it was not easy and there had to be a lot of impressive catches and fourth down conversions to get them. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ defence never looked the same one Ryan Shazier was lost to the spinal contusion he picked up in the Steelers’ brutal game against the Bengals in week thirteen. The talk has mostly been about fourth down conversions and the slow start, but the Steelers defence let a league average offence with Blake Bortles as their quarterback put up forty-five points on them and that has to hurt.

Some changes are already taking place. There appears to have been discord between offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger but Haley’s contract has expired and he is not being renewed. It looks like quarterbacks coach Randy Fichtner will replace him and Roethlisberger looks to be a lot more committed to coming back next season than he was last offseason with all his talk of retirement. Still, given that Shazier had to have spine stabilisation surgery and as far as we know hasn’t walked yet, let alone be anywhere near playing football again (if that is even a possibility), the Steelers will need to address the defence again this offseason but it feels like they should be able to take another deep run next season.

If the first game on Sunday saw an upset against a veteran quarterback, the second saw a miraculous play knock out the New Orleans Saints and their future hall of fame quarterback. The Saints finally managed to assemble a defence that could do enough to get Drew Brees into the playoffs again, ably helped by the league’s best rushing attack by DVOA. Two all NFL rookies helped with this turn around and having seen off the Panthers last week, it looked like the Saints were going to beat the second seeded Minnesota Vikings when they found themselves on fourth down with seconds to go, no timeouts, and were one point behind the Saints. However, another one of the Saints’ rookies, safety Marcus Williams who already had an interception in this game made a horrible play as Stefon Diggs caught a ball in front of him. All Williams had to do was stop Diggs from getting out of bounds and hold him up so Diggs could be tackled in bounds, but he came flying past Diggs without touching him allowing Diggs to turn and suddenly there was no one between him and the end zone. The Vikings fans fortunes finally changed as the miraculous play went their way and the Saints promising season came to a shuddering halt.

That play will haunt Williams all offseason, whilst the franchise will be worrying about re-signing Drew Brees who is an unrestricted free agent. However, given the way this year’s team played, and the potential for their rookie players to develop further next year then it is hard not to see Brees back playing for the Saints and them being very competitive next season. After a number of years where they were asking Brees to do too much, they now look setup to compete as long as Brees is willing and able to play like he did this year. We should make the most of being able to watch him whilst we still can.

Wildcard Sunday

07 Sunday Jan 2018

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Buffalo Bills (9-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

The early game on Sunday is also probably the unlikeliest if you had asked anyone before the start of the season as it features the Bills breaking a seventeen season streak of not making the playoffs travelling to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team who themselves haven’t played a playoff game in ten years.

The Jaguars stuck with interim head coach Doug Marrone having fired Gus Bradley during last season and brought Tom Coughlin back to help in the front office. The change has worked with a couple of further additions to an already talented defence creating a unit that led the league by DVOA and that has carried the team through the season. The only problem has been that the offence has been so focussed on running the ball and limiting quarterback Blake Bortles that this is not a team built to come from behind. With the league’s best passing defence this has not been a problem during the regular season but could be an issue in the playoff as the level of competition increases and they face some of the best offences in the league.

The Bills come into this game after the high of breaking a streak of missing the playoff but I’m not sure anyone would have predicted that happening during an offseason where the new regime overhauled the roster, trading away known names as they started again. This continued into the season and it was clear that a long term project was under way and that the team wanted a particular type of player on the roster. The main talk surrounding first year head coach Sean McDermott was his decision to start Nathan Peterman in week eleven. The rookie quarterback threw five interceptions and the game was lost horribly but to McDermott’s credit he did not lose the team after this debacle and nearly everything else has been impressive about the way the Bills have competed in his first year. Their offence may only be ranked twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA, but they can run the ball and Tyrod Taylor may be conservative but he does not turn the ball over. In LeShaun McCoy the Bills have a running back that can break big runs but he is carrying an ankle injury coming into this game and whilst it looks like he will start, a back that is successful because of their lateral movement and explosiveness is definitely going to be affected by an ankle problem. This is a shame given that the Jaguars rank a surprising twenty-sixth against the run. The Bills defence is sold rather than spectacular but did generate twenty-five turn overs, which was eleventh in the league.

In this battle of playoff underdogs my heart wants the Bills to win, but the head thinks that the Jaguars are the better team. If Blake Bortles has a bad game and McCoy can show some of his top form then the Bills can win this game, but they really need further improvements to truly compete and I would expect the Jaguars to win this one.

This game does represent want the NFL wants, competitive balance with every team truly able to sell to their fans that next season we can make the playoffs..

Carolina Panthers ((11-5) @ New Orleans Saints (11-5)

The final game of the weekend looks to be one of the most competitive as two division rivals with matching records face off against each other.

The Carolina Panthers have had a strange season where their defence has looked good all year, finishing sixth by DVOA but the offence has been up and down all season. An early attempt to change the way Cam Newton plays did not work and it was only when they went back to running him that the offence was truly effective. The problem with this is that unlike the season where he led this team to the Super Bowl, Newton’s play has been erratic and he has put in some truly bad passing performances. However, he is a truly dynamic player that can wreak havoc running the ball and he is likely to need to as his receiving options are not playing that well currently and his favourite receiver Greg Olson has not returned to his usual form since returning from the foot injury that kept the tight end out for most of the season. The Panthers do have a dynamic rookie receiving running back in Christian McCaffrey but with the evolution of the offence it doesn’t feel like the Panthers have a clear overall plan and so he has flashed his undoubted skill rather than dominated.

The Panthers travel to face a Saints team who have demonstrated just how quickly a team can turn round in the NFL. The Saints were coming off three seasons of 7-9 and seemed to be wasting the end of Drew Brees Hall of Fame career as they could not surround him with a defence that could make the team competitive. The highlights of this turn around are two players who could arguably be offensive and defensive rookie of the year. In running back Alvin Kamara they have an efficient complement to Mark Ingram who is truly terrifying in space and has the hands to help Drew Brees in the short passing game. In Marshone Lattimore they have a rookie corner who looks anything but a rookie and although it took a few weeks for the defence to gel, they finished the season ranked eighth in the league by DVOA and the Saints were overall number one as well.

The easy narrative for this game is that it is hard to beat a team three times in a row, but football is a game of matchups and in both of their previous games the Saints have scored thirty points and won the game. The Panthers have been one of the more aggressive teams in the league in terms of blitzing and the Saints have been pretty similar in this aspect of defence, but Brees is a much more precise quarterback and is better equipped to exploit the quick passes necessary to disarm the blitz. Newton is more than capable of using his legs to gain yards and avoid pressure but it feels like the Panthers, whilst being competitive are less likely to win this game.

I am very much looking forward to seeing how this game unfolds, but I do expect the Saints to run out winners for a third time.

Jets @ Bills

18 Sunday Sep 2016

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New York Jets 37
Buffalo Bills 31

This was a tighter game than I was expecting, but then again it was a tighter game than it should have been given that that the Jets looked better on both sides of the ball for most of the game and nearly put up five hundred yards on the Bills defence.

It would be curious that Rex Ryan fired his offensive coordinator after this game, given it was his defensive side of the ball that was possibly the problem, but this action does remove a possible replacement lurking on his staff as the Bill have fallen to 0-2, but let’s look at the how the teams played.

The Jets struggled to run the ball early in the game, and whilst they did manage to grind out over one hundred yards as a team, it took Matt Forte thirty carries to get his round one hundred yards, although he did punch in three touchdowns. What really struck me with the Jets on offence was the number of third down conversions the Jets made, going eight of thirteen, and having me regularly make a note of a receiver making a third down catch to get a new set of downs. In fact they had two receivers go over one yards in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, whilst Quincy Enunwa also chipped in with ninety-two with a very strong opening to the game, but who was forced out with an injury to his ribs. This meant that we saw Jalin Marshall catch three balls for forty-five yards and it seems that the Jets offence is going to be effective again this season, and certainly they appear to have depth at receiver.

The Bills defence started strongly against the run, but they never seemed to get control of the Jets passing game, and despite putting the Jets in difficult positions on third down, was unable to get regular pressure or stop the passing game. As is typical of Rex Ryan’s teams, there were some badly timed penalties, but it is really hard to fathom how a defensive coach of such skill and reputation as Ryan has come to a team that already had a very good defence and seems to have taken them backwards. The Bills did manage one sack, and flushed Ryan Fitzpatrick out the pocket several times, but often he was able to make yards or get a first down with his feet, or make a pass to a receiver. However, they did contribute a touchdown when Jets receiver Jalin Marshal fumbled after a catch and corner Nickell Robey was able to scoop up the ball and run it back for a touchdown. They also manage to limit the Jets to field goals early, or this game would not have been as close, but in the end they just gave up too much in the passing game.

The Bills offence on the other hand, was unable to get things going consistently with LeSean McCoy flashing on occasions, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor being mobile but inconsistent in the passing game. However, what kept them in this game were big splash plays. The Bills opening drive started poorly on their first two plays, but on third and twelve Tryod Taylor threw a deep pass to Marquise Goodwin who got past Darrelle Revis for an eighty-four yard touchdown. They were unable to do much for the rest of the first half, but at the start of the second half Taylor was flushed out of the pocket, yet he was able to find enough time to pass to Greg Salas who got behind the defence to score a seventy-one yard touchdown. However, when it really mattered they couldn’t make the plays they needed, and their final touchdown owed much to the Jets having a thirteen point lead and so they were focussing on stopping the Bills scoring quickly, but were playing soft coverages. The offence has not been great this season for the Bill, but I really do think there’s more to Greg Roman’s firing than just that.

The Jets defence is playing well, at least in the font seven, and they were consistently getting pressure even if they didn’t generate any sacks. However, Derrelle Revis got burned again as age is catching up with him and he can’t quite run as he used to. He is still a very good corner, but it does appear that his time as the premier shutdown corner in the league is over. The two long touchdown passes will worry head coach Todd Bowles and defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers as they gave up a lot to AJ Green in week one, so there’s plenty for them to do, but their excellent front gives them a strong foundation to work from.

The Jets got back to 1-1 on the road in a divisional game, and Ryan Fitzpatrick possibly put to rest the idea that he can’t beat a Rex Ryan defence. I still expect the Jets to push for the playoffs, whilst the Bills having fallen to 0-2 and have given themselves a real hole to climb out of, which I can’t see them doing.

Bills at Jets and Week 10 Picks

14 Saturday Nov 2015

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It feels slightly strange to be sitting down to write this today, but whilst my thoughts are with the people of Paris, the people of Beirut, the refugees fleeing those who falsely claim these attacks are in the name of Islam, one of the ways we counter the actions of those who perpetrated those acts is by carrying on as normally as we can. They want us to be scared, and feel alien from one another, but whilst I feel heartbroken, I choose to write as normal and so on to football.

I’ll start with a confession, I quite like the single colour kits, although I suspect this will depend on what they come up with for each team going forward. The game was also a good one between two good defences that came down to the end of the fourth quarter.

The Bills offence struggled against the Jets’s blitzes, giving up four sacks as Muhammad Wilkerson frequently got through their line and garnered two sacks. Things could have been even worse but for Tyrod Taylor’s running ability, although there was at least one occasion when he ran out of bounds for a loss when he could have simply thrown the ball away. Still he was able hit enough plays to get a touchdown, as the Bills used screen plays and LeSean McCoy to move the ball. The only really good offensive display from either side was McCoy who repeatedly ran for ten yards as his burst and ability to change direction enabled him to pick a path through a Jets defence that was determined to protect their injured secondary through aggressive play. McCoy finished the game with an impressive one hundred and twelve yards rushing off just nineteen carries as well as catching five balls for forty-seven yards. The defences are what won the day in this game, and the Jets made life very difficult for the Bills, particularly after the Jets finally added to their first quarter field goal with a touchdown that brought the home crowd into the game, and the Bills didn’t score another point in the game.

The Jets struggled on offence as much as the Bills, outgaining them by thirty-eight yards but Ryan Fitzpatrick also threw two interceptions to go with his two touchdowns. They managed to get over one hundred yards rushing, but clearly weren’t confident in their ability to run consistently against the Bills defence as they often passed on first/second down. There were times where Chris Ivory looked like the back who started the season so strong, but he also looked tired at times, and it didn’t help that Stevan Ridley finished the game losing one yard on his three carries. However, as well as the Bills did stifling the Jets offence and getting the two interceptions, they really could have lost this game. Several times the Jets aggressively went for it on fourth down, and one particularly impressive sequence had Fitzpatrick run a quarterback sneak for six yards on third and ten before going for it on fourth down and getting the yards he needed with a pass. Then the Jets defence not only stopped the Bills, but their special teams blocked a punt to get the ball on the Bills own thirteen yard line. However, the Jets couldn’t get the ball in the end zone, with a lofted pass on fourth down floating past Kellen Davis before he could find the ball in the air.

This was really good game to watch if you like defensive battles, but it was really won in the second quarter. Firstly Ryan Fitzpatrick was intercepted when he threw a dangerous ball into bracketed coverage that Brandon Marshall couldn’t hold onto as he tried to catch it coming over the corner, and it popped up into the hands of Corey Graham. The Bill could only get a field goal from the resulting drive, but on the following kick off they forced Devlin Smith to fumble on the return and Duke Williams ran the ball in for a touchdown. After this ten point swing they were able to build enough of a lead to withstand the Jets late rally, but they really could have lost it.

And having failed in the first game, it’s time to move onto the rest of the week’s picks.

Bears @ Rams (-7.5)

The Rams are coming along nicely with a fearsome defence and Todd Gurley giving them something they can focus on to make the offence run. The problem is that Nick Foles has not been that impressive this season, but the addition of Wes Welker to give him help on third down in the slot may well help if he can still play. That said, I’m going to worry about Welker every time he is hit and I just hope he doesn’t get another concussion. However, despite all their progress, I’m not sure they should be giving this many points to a Bears team who have been within three points of every team they have played since they were shut out in week three. The defence seems to be coming together, whilst Jay Cutler is throwing fewer interceptions and seems to have something going with offensive coordinator Adam Gase. I don’t think they will win this game, but it will be closer that eight points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Browns @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Steelers’ defence is going to have to keep playing as well as they have to keep the team in playoff contention. It’s hard to believe that Roethlisberger managed to only come away with a foot sprain from last week’s game as his foot really looked like it could have been badly hurt. They have so far managed to keep themselves in touch of the playoff race, and the Browns are not the worst team to be facing. Their run defence has not been good, and you could see a healthy dose of DeAngelo Williams in this one. I don’t see the Browns having enough offence to compete in this game, so I’m backing the Steelers to beat this spread.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Cowboys @ Buccanneers (-1.5)

The Cowboys go into Tampa with a six game losing streak, and you could say they’re due a win, equally you could say that there isn’t anything to indicate they are going to turn this round. However, Jameis Winston hasn’t thrown an interception in the last four games, and they might stand a chance in this one. I’m not fully sure of my reasoning, but I just have a feeling that the Bucs are going to get the win in this one at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Lions @ Packers (-11.5)

The Packers are coming off two losses, but they are a different team at Lambeau Field than they are on the road and the Lions are just the team for them to get themselves back on track. I don’t know if there will be a reaction from the Lions to the recent spate of firings, but I don’t see them doing anything in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Panthers @ Titans (+4.5)

The Titans are coming off their second win of the season having fired Ken Wisenhunt and handed the team to Mike Mularkey, but the Saints defence definitely lent a hand. However, they were glad to have rookie quarterback Marcus Martiota who has looked like he is going to be a very good quarterback. The problem for them this week is that they are welcoming an unbeaten Panthers team whose defence has been playing really well. Not only that, but whilst the Titan’s defence is ranked in the top ten by DVOA, they are a relatively lowly twenty-third in run defence as they welcome a Panthers team who really run the ball well.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Dolphins @ Eagles (-6.5)

The points do give me a little pause, but the Dolphins are too far off the pace whilst the Eagles are beginning to come together. The Eagles have run for over one hundred and fifty yards in the last four games and the Dolphins are another team with a bad run defence. Equally the Eagles defence has been good all year, and so I think they will have enough in this one. Sorry Dan.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Saints @ Washington (+0.5)

The Saints offence has been good over the last few weeks, but their defence has been horrible. This should give Washington a chance in this game, but I can’t quite bring myself to pick them to win.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Jaguars @ Ravens (-5.5)

I’m really not sure what the Ravens have done to be getting this many points even before they lost Steve Smiths. The Jaguars have been good enough to just lose this season, but Blake Bortles has the receivers to take advantage of the Ravens secondary so whilst I may regret this, I’m backing the Jaguars for a second week in a row.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Vikings @ Raiders (-2.5)

The Raiders have played really well on offence this season, but their defence scares me. However, whilst I said I should not have picked against Mike Zimmer last week, I think I am going to do it again, because whilst the defence looked really good, Amari Cooper has been special and I just think the travelling Vikings may lose out with Bridgewater trying to come back from his concussion last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Chiefs @ Broncos (-6.5)

The Broncos need to get back to running the ball and they may well do that this week, but the Chiefs have the defence to cause them real problems. I’m not sure the Chiefs will win this one, but I think they’ll keep it closer than seven points.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Patriots @ Giants (+7.5)

The Giants have been good on offence, but their defence has been struggling in recent weeks and are likely to be missing Prince Amukamara who has a torn pectoral muscle. The Giants have had success against the Patriots in recent seasons but this defence is not the one that beat them, and I see the Patriots continuing their great run even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-3.5)

The Cardinals are a really good team at home, but I wonder if they have enough to win this one on the road. Their offence has been very good this season, but they’ve had a tendency to turn the ball over with Bruce Arians aggressive approach and I’m not sure that this is going to work for them against the Seahawks in Seattle. Their defence will have more than enough to contain the Seahawks offence, but I think they will struggle overall. This is my pick of this week’s game, and I think the Seahawks will be desperate to win it to keep themselves in the playoff hunt.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Texans @ Bengals (-10.5)

I’m not very comfortable about this pick, but the Texans have really struggled this season so whilst I am taking a leaf out of Dan’s big book of optimism, I don’t have to feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals