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The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

The Wrong Football

Tag Archives: Week 11 Picks

2021 Week Eleven Picks

21 Sunday Nov 2021

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 11 Picks

Things are a little out of sync this weekend so this will have to be a shorter picks post than normal. The Thursday night game certainly was trying to contribute to that given that there was no real contest as the Patriots ground the Falcons into a 25-0 loss. The defence of the Patriots just blanketed the Falcons offence, making Matt Ryan’s life miserable behind a line that struggled to protect him. This was not the best game for rookie quarterback Mac Jones, but it didn’t matter and the Bills will be watching the surging Patriots nervously now they have a won five straight.

Early Games:

  • The Colts have been playing better and it will be interesting to see if Carson Wentz can tame his tendency to try too much, but if feels baked in at this point and I just wonder how the Bills will go given their recent stumbles.
  • The Ravens lost two of their last three games, and whilst a short week after overtime might explain it, they will be hoping to get back on track against a Bears team who seemed lost even before they had confirmation that pass rusher Khalil Mack was not coming back for the rest of the season after having his foot operated on.
  • The only two teams in the NFL to have winless seasons face off this week with the Lions yet to get off the mark and it doesn’t look that hopeful this week.
  • The Titans have won six straight games and it’s. hard to see the Texans stopping it, although given the injuries the Titans are dealing with the cover is tempting.
  • The Vikings really can’t afford to drop any more games behind the Packers, although it’s hard to see the Packers losing the division, but if the Vikings are to challenge for the playoffs, they need to put a string of wins together.
  • The Dolphins have won two straight and have a good chance to make it three against a struggling Jets team who rather than develop one of their young quarterbacks are starting Joe Flacco even though another win is not going to really help them at this point.
  • The Saints visit to Philadelphia will be a tougher game than it might have seemed a couple of weeks ago. I don’t know if that will lead to an upset, but I would be genuinely interested in watching this one and I wouldn’t have said that a couple of weeks ago.
  • The Panthers re-signed Cam Newton in the hopes of rescuing a season where their young defence had made a leap forward, but the offence had stagnated and struggled until last week. The Washington Football Team came out of their bye and beat the Buccaneers last week and will be hoping to make another statement, this time on the road.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguar have begun to put something together on defence, but the offence is still struggling and this week they face a 49ers team fresh of a good win against the Rams who will be hoping they can build on that.

Colts @ Bills (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Ravens @ Bears (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Lions @ Browns (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Texans @ Titans (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Packers @ Vikings (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Dolphins @ Jets (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Saints @ Eagles (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Washington @ Panthers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

49ers @ Jaguars (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Late Games:

  • The Bengals dropped from 5-2 to 5-4 thanks to two rough losses so will be coming off their bye with an eye on getting back to winning ways. The Raiders have also lost two straight but it feels like the bad things are snowballing for them. I’m sure both teams will be hoping to turn things round and while I’m. not ready to trust the Bengals right now, I think they should win this one.
  • The game of the week sees the Chiefs fresh from three straight wins host the 7-2 Cowboys who are ranked ten places higher by DVOA. I don’t trust the Chiefs defence to hold up against Dak Prescott and I am fascinated by the prospect of seeing how Patrick Mahomes and the struggling Chiefs offence will fare against the fourth ranked defence by DVOA.
  • The Cardinals have had a tough couple of weeks with Kyler Murry out with an ankle injury but won one of those games. Russell Wilson struggled last week in his return from his finger injury, but the Seahawks have been distinctly average this season and I wonder if they have enough to beat the 8-2 Cardinals. The numbers say something different though.

Bengals @ Raiders (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Cowboys @ Chiefs (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Cardinals @ Seahawks (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Sunday Night Football:

Steelers @ Chargers (-4.5)

The Steelers have activated Ben Roethlisberger from the Covid-19 list but given how they have been playing I’m not sure this will magically turn things round for them. Having said that, the Chargers are struggling on offence, with plenty of criticism about them not taking advantage of young QB Justin Herbert’s powerful arm and with only one win in their last four games the Chargers will be hoping they can stop their season fading from the promising start.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Monday Night Football

Giants @ Buccaneers (-11.5)

I have no handle on the Giants, but it is hard to see many positives for this team given how they have struggled and visiting a Buccaneers team who were beaten by Washington last week doesn’t feel like a situation where the Giants will turn things round. Yes, the Bucs are dealing with injuries, but there is a chasm between these teams in the DVOA ranking and I would expect the Bucs to take care of business in this one, I am just not sure of this points total with Tom Brady seemingly a little out of sync.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Eleven

18 Thursday Nov 2021

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Aaron Rodgers, Atlanta Falcons, Ben Roethlisberger, Bill Belichick, Cam Newton, Cordarrelle Patterson, Dak Prescott, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Kyle Pitts, Mac Jomes, New England Patriots, NFL, Tennessee Titans, Week 11 Picks

I unfortunately scored the inverse to Dan in another bad week for picks, which saw Dan open up a two point lead as I fell closer to a fifty percent win percentage.

Gee:Week 10:  6 – 8Overall:  77 – 73
Dan:Week 10:  8 – 6Overall:  79 – 71

Patriots @ Falcons (+6.5)

I don’t know if I cursed the Falcons by expressing an interest last week, but they got beat heavily by the Cowboys on Sunday. Now they have questions around Cordarrelle Patterson’s ankle injury and face possibly the worst defence for them on a short week in their current iteration. You have to think that Bill Belichick will have plans for rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, and the Patriots should have more than enough pass rush to make life difficult for Matt Ryan behind an offensive line that struggled to protect him against the Cowboys.

So far this season Mac Jones has been the pick of the rookie quarterbacks, and whilst this has not resulted in a dynamic passing offence, the Patriots have a formula that is definitely working for them now that they seem to be over their traditional slow start.

I’m always concerned laying points on the road on a Thursday night, but I think these are two teams heading in different directions right now.

Gee’s Pick:     Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Patriots

Survivor Competition

Neither Dan or I managed to survive last week, with Dan’s faith in the Steelers undermined by a late Covid-19 scratch for Ben Roethlisberger while the addition of Cam Newton seemed to do for me.

I don’t think either of us should feel too bad about last week’s results, but we both need to get back on track this week. My strategy for this would be to back the Titans to keep their win streak going against the Texans, even if I am giving the Texans a hard look as a underdog cover for Sunday, but Dan pipped me to that selection.

As a result I’m stealing an option he was considering but isn’t available to him and I’m grabbing the Patriots going against the Falcons.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 5

Week 11 Selection:

Gee:    Titans
Dan:    Patriots

Bold Prediction of the Week

My bold prediction for the week definitely counts as bold.

For all that the Chiefs have won three in a row and have taken the lead in the AFC West, the Packers were without Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott has the options at the skills positions to work round an improving Chiefs pass rush. Not to mention that the Cowboys defence currently matches the offence in DVOA ranking as both units are ranked fourth.

This is the third overall team by DVOA in the Cowboys versus the fourteenth in the Chiefs, and yet in a fit of podcast pressure I have predicted the Chiefs will win. I don’t know that my pick this Sunday will follow this…

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2019 Week Eleven Picks

17 Sunday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Picks Competition, Week 11 Picks

Time to find out if I can get back into the picks competition, but let’s start with the trivia competition where Dan also has a strong lead.

‘What highly touted player spent his entire 9 year career with the Detroit Lions after he was selected as the 2nd overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft?’

So having failed miserably to spot the theme, there’s just this week’s question to deal with and I’m very happy with this one as I am sure the answer is Calvin Johnson.

‘Ok, I know this one, but I think Gee will too so I’m not sure it’ll have much impact on the lead unfortunately. Retiring after 9 years would have meant him retiring in 2016 and I remember discussing on the pod how it seemed too early for this guy to retire – the answer is Calvin ‘Megatron’ Johnson.’

Falcons @ Panthers (-5.5)

The Atlanta Falcons looked like a different team coming off a bye, beating the Saints convincing, but the question is whether this turnaround is sustainable and not just a divisional blip. The Falcons are playing the Carolina Panthers who lost to the Packers last week and whilst I’m not sure the Falcons can manage a repeat win, this is too many points for me to lay on the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Bills @ Dolphins (+5.5)

The Buffalo Bills are a confounding team as they are the twenty-fourth ranked team by overall DVOA and yet they currently are in a wildcard spot. They travel to face the now two win Miami Dolphins and whilst I can see the Bills winning, this is once again too many points for me to lay.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Cowboys @ Lions (+4.5)

I was totally caught out last week as the Detroit Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford could not play as he has a fracture of his transverse processes in his back. A fracture of the back always sounds scary, but these will be playing in a few weeks, but not right now. The Dallas Cowboys are not a team I like to predict as they often seem to be less than the sum of their parts this season, but facing a backup quarterback I like them in this one where I have seen the line as high a +7 for the Lions.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Broncos @ Vikings (-10.5)

I hate this line as the Denver Broncos have been really unreliable, and whilst rested and coming of a win in week nine you really can’t trust them. However, whilst I expect the Minnesota Vikings to win, I’m not sure I trust them to cover this line given that they have not exactly been consistent performers either. In the end. I’m going to grab the points in this one as the Broncos defence has got itself back into the top ten by DVOA and the Vikings will be missing Adam Thielen as he tries to get his hamstring healthy.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Broncos

Jaguars @ Colts (-2.5)

This is a game that I would love to avoid as the Indianapolis Colts might be getting Jaoby Brissett back, but have injuries at receiver whilst the Jacksonville Jaguars look to be starting Nick Foles after he recovered from his broken collar bone. There are so many variables, no real help from the number, and there is only 0.9% between them in overall DVOA so I feel like I need to get hold of a picking pin. The nearest I can get is that the Colts only need to win by a field goal to cover and they are at home so that’s where I’m going but this game could go either way…

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Saints @ Buccaneers (+5.5)

This divisional game is curious one as the New Orleans Saints will be looking to bounce back against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers having lost to the Falcons last week, but the Bucs have been frequently competitive thanks to the peaks of Jameis Winston and a quality receiving group. However, the unpredictable thing here is what Saints team we are getting and how many turnovers is Winston going to be responsible for. I’m going to grab the home underdog and hope, but this could be a big mistake.

Gee’s Pick:        Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Jets @ Washington (-1.5)

There is very little to rely on here as Washington have been bad all years, whilst the Jets got a second win last week as they announced that Adam Gase will be the coach next year. This being the New York Jets I don’t know if that is actually true, but given the absence of home advantage in Washington I am going to reluctantly pick the Jets.

Gee’s Pick:        Jets
Dan’s Pick:        Jets

Texans @ Ravens (-4.5)

This should be a cracking game that pits two of the more exciting quarterback against each other, The worry for the Houston Texans is having traded away Jadeveon Clowney in the off-season and lost JJ Watt for the season to injury their front seven is not looking nearly as strong and the Baltimore Ravens are just rolling at the moment. There was no let down for the Ravens against the Bengals last week and Lamar Jackson is playing like the MVP candidate he is. The Texans have had a bye week to prepare for Jackson, and given that Deshaun Watson is pretty good with his legs as well there can be informed internal discussions about stopping a running quarterback, but the Texans are too reliant on the spectacular on offence so I’m going to take the Ravens despite the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Cardinals @ 49ers (-13.5)

I think this line is off. I do think that the San Francisco 49ers will get back to winning ways but on a short week having lost to the Seahawks on Monday I find it hard to see them beating the Arizona Cardinals by two clear touchdowns given how competitive the Cardinals have been.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Cardinals

Bengals @ Raiders (-10.5)

I want to pick the Cincinnati Bengals as this is a big line, but even if their offence does improve with Ryan Finley starting his second game at quarterback, I have no faith in a defence that just cut Preston Brown and has real problems at linebacker. I would love to be proven wrong, but I am not going to pick the Bengals until I see them keep it close.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Patriots @ Eagles (+3.5)

This line is horrible as the New England Patriots always respond after a loss and have had a bye to prepare for this trip to the Philadelphia Eagles, but there are problems with the Patriots offence this year as they can’t run the ball. The Eagles are still a top ten team by DVOA despite their injury problems, and I’m really tempted to grab the points at home but I’ve just been bitten too many times betting against the Patriots to do it this time.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Bears @ Rams (-6.5)

Both the Chicago Bears and the LA Rams are struggling on offence, although for different reasons yet both look to be slipping out of the playoffs this season. Given the problem with the Rams’ offensive line you can see Khalil Mack wrecking this game and the Rams have too many other injuries on offence for me to back them to win by a touchdown.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Chiefs @ Chargers (+3.5)

This Monday night marquee matchup is not quite what it looked like when drawn up as the LA Chargers have been hit by injuries and for first time Philip Rivers hasn’t been able to carry on regardless. This could be a spectacular game as the Kansas City Chiefs finally have all their big names on offence healthy, but the defence is just plain bad. The Chiefs can’t afford many more losses, yet alone a divisional one and so despite them losing to the Titans last week, I’m going to back them on the road against the Chargers.

Gee’s Pick:        Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week 11

15 Thursday Nov 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 11 Picks

I have managed to pull a game back on Dan’s Dad, but he is still leading the way in the picks competition. However, I might just have had an idea for a prize for the victor. The logo colours for The Wrong Football have always been based on the Bengals colours, but we could add a little spice and from next year have them in the colour of last year’s regular season picks champion’s favourite team, be they Dan or his Dad which would give us the teal and orange of the Dolphins or purple and yellow of the Vikings. Now there are some stakes for you, but for now let’s get to the matter of tonight’s game given that neither Dan or I got the trivia question right last week.

Gee:     Week 10   7-7              Overall   75-73
Dan:     Week 10   6-8              Overall   70-78

Packers @ Seahawks (-2.5)

Looking at the standing it feels like there is more at stake than just another Thursday night game as both these teams will be thinking that they could make a run at the playoffs but neither can afford to lose. The front office of the Packers seems to be looking further to the future with the moves they made at the trade deadline but Aaron Rodgers certainly won’t want to wait as he turns thirty-five next month. The Packers have not been known for the kind of run game balance they showed on offence last week, but their near two hundred yards on the ground last week was in fact bettered by the Seahawks, who ran for over two hundred and fifty in their close loss to the Rams.

These teams are within a percentage point in the overall DVOA ranking and we know that Aaron Rodgers can win anywhere but so can Russell Wilson. In fact I am finding it incredibly hard to pick between these two teams. Given the extra home advantage I believe the Seahawks should get and the fact the line is set at -2.5 I feel there is a sliver of value in picking the Seahawks at home on a Thursday night so I’m going to grab that, but honestly, this game as much as any could be a coin toss.

I just hope the football lives up to my expectations of what it could be.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Week Eleven Trivia

‘Week 10  11/11               

This week I asked about stadium altitudes and after the overtly obvious 3 feet high Saints Superdome who is 2nd and what ‘altitude’ are they? The guys have certainly had their grey cells working and I have enjoyed the logic behind their effort. Firstly, well done to both for identifying that the lowest altitude is likely to be coastal, just as the highest would normally be found in the centre of the continental land mass.

Right, to the answers, Tampa actually sits at the dizzy heights of 54m so, sorry Nul Point there Gee. Dan, however, spotted that there may be 2 at equal second place, but they weren’t West coast I’m afraid. So the 2 answers are the Giants and Jets at the Met Life in East Rutherford NJ along with the Jaguars EverBank Field each at 7 feet. Bragging rights are marginally Dan’s but neither should ever fly a plane!

Week 11

For week 11 I’m offering  a bit of a curved ball. if that’s not too muffled a metaphor. I want to know now many of the 32 teams do NOT have a Professional Cheerleading squad.

Is it      A, 0 – 5;           B, 6 – 10;         C, 11 – 15;      or D, 16+ 

Recover that Fumble   ’

Week Eleven Picks

19 Sunday Nov 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 11 Picks

Lions @ Bears (+3.5)

The Chicago Bears lost at home against the Packers, which is pretty worrying with the Detroit Lions coming to visit. The Lions are not quite right on offence, which will happen when you have the thirtieth ranked offence by DVOA and they are going against a pretty tough Chicago defence. I am struggling a little with this game as I think the Lions are more likely to win but I’m just not sure about the points. In the end I’m taking the Bears to bounce back in this home divisional game and keep it close getting points.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Jaguars @ Browns (+7.5)

This is a surprisingly interesting game in that I’m not sure how many games in a row I trust the Jacksonville Jaguars to win and the one thing that is truly good about the Cleveland Browns is their rush defence, which is ranked second in the league by DVOA. I’m not saying the Browns are suddenly going to win this game, but with their strength going up against a Jaguars offence predicated on the run I think they may be able to keep this game closer than eight points.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Ravens @ Packers (+2.5)

The Green Bay Packers are coming off their first win with Brett Hundley starting as quarterback who demonstrated a little bit more last week as the Packers found ways to get their offence going again. He faces a stern test when facing the Baltimore Ravens’ defence who rank third in the league in pass defence. The Ravens’ issue is that their offence has been pretty woeful this season and so this could be a tight game. This is one of those lines I really don’t like, but I’m going to grab the home underdog as they have been pretty good to me this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Chiefs @ Giants (+10.5)

The New York Giants are winless at home and have only kept one game close than eleven so it doesn’t feel like a team coming of a ten point loss to the lowly 49ers has much chance in this game. The things that worries me about this line is that although Andy Reid is really good coming off a bye and the Kansas City Chiefs have more than enough offence to win this game, their defence is ranked twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA and they haven’t won a game by eleven points or more since week three. I can’t quite believe I’m doing this but give me the Giants getting ten and a half points at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Rams @ Vikings (-2.5)

This looks to be game of the week, with a matchup of the high flying LA Rams offence going against the Minnesota Vikings’ tough defence particularly catching the eye. I don’t have a strong feeling either way but the Vikings have a loud crowd in their new stadium and so I’m leaning in their direction but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Rams proved me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Washington @ Saints (-7.5)

The New Orleans Saints’ turnaround is great to see, but I’m not sure anyone was predicting that their defence and run game would be leading the way. They face a Washington team who are scrapping away despite the injuries and the fact that their passing game is ranked eleventh in the league by DVOA despite the offseason overhaul at receiver is testament to Kirk Cousins’ ability as a quarterback. However, I don’t think it will be enough against the Saint’s team at home and so ‘m backing the Saints to win big.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Cardinals @ Texans (+1.5)

This is a tricky game to pick with the Houston Texans’ season derailed by injuries and the Arizona Cardinals are coming to town starting their third string quarterback. The Cardinals have had a long week to recover after narrowly losing last week’s Thursday night game and Adrian Peterson should look better than he did on three days of rest, but will that be enough for them to win the game. I have more faith in Bruce Arians as a coach, but I’m not sure if that will be enough to see me right in this pick or not.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Buccaneers @ Dolphins (-2.5)

I do not like this game, Gee-I-am. I do not like either team’s game plan. But seriously, the Dolphins are ranked thirty-second by DVOA and are coming off a horrible loss to the Panthers. However, they are favoured in this game because the Buccaneers are not exactly playing well this season either. The Bucs are coming off a narrow win against the New York Jets but their defence has been bad all season and the offence has sputtered. They will be getting receiver Mike Evans back from suspension but it is likely Ryan Fitzpatrick will start as quarterback as Jameis Winston struggles with his shoulder. It feels like the Dolphins are heading in the wrong direction but I have more faith in Adam Gase as a head coach than Dirk Koetter and with the Dolphins at home I’m reluctantly backing them.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bills @ Chargers (-4.5)

The Buffalo Bills have been struggling in recent weeks and are electing to hand rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman his first start. Doing this on the road might be considered a risk except that the Chargers don’t exactly have much of a home advantage with their current situation in LA. They will be relieved to have Philip Rivers clear concussion protocol but it feels like they specialise in close losses. The Chargers do not have the run game to take advantage of the Bills’ recent defensive problems and basically, I don’t trust them to get out of their own way. I don’t like taking a rookie QB on the road but apparently that’s what I’m going to do.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Bengals @ Broncos (-2.5)

This game pits two misfiring franchises against each other. The Denver Broncos have serious problems on offence without a settled quarterback and a three back rotation that isn’t helping their running game. Even their vaunted defence has slipped and doesn’t look like the dominant unit of recent seasons. They welcome a Cincinnati Bengals team whose defence is playing pretty tough but who are hamstrung by offensive problems that stem from the o-line. I think this could be a very ugly game and I’m not really sure who is going to win so I’ll try a little faith in my team who have at least been competitive in recent weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Patriots @ Raiders (+6.5)

The Oakland Raiders are the hosts for this game but it is being played in Mexico City. The New England Patriots have stayed out in Denver to prepare for the altitude of Mexico City having beaten the Broncos heavily last week. This is a game that pits highly ranked offences against lowly ranked defences but I have a lot more faith in the Patriots than the Raiders and fancy them to run out easy winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Eagles @ Cowboys (+3.5)

The Dallas Cowboy will not have Ezekiel Elliott for the next five weeks as he dropped his legal fight against his suspension, much like the Cowboys dropped their commitment to the running game last week. They also gave up six sacks to one player and tackle Tyron Smith is likely out again this week with his groin issue as well as losing linebacker Sean Lee to a hamstring problem. The Philadelphia Eagles are not a team that you want to be facing with questions about your offensive line and Sean Lee has a huge effect on how the Cowboys defence plays so I expect the team with the best record in the league to run out easy winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Falcons @ Seahawks (-3.5)

The Atlanta Falcons got a win in Dallas last week and now travel to face a banged up Seahawks team in Seattle. The Seahawks are likely to be without two thirds of the Legion of Boom as well as Cliff Avril and whilst I would expect them to be competitive against the Falcons, in fact they could very easily win, I’m just not confident enough to back them to win by four. The Falcons may be struggling on offence but I hope they have enough in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Week Eleven Picks

20 Sunday Nov 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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NFL, Week 11 Picks

Last week was something of a disaster picking wise, which leaves Dan and me level again going into week eleven.

Gee:      Week 10   4-10                   Overall   65-82
Dan:      Week 10   9-5                     Overall   65-82

Bills @ Bengals (-3.5)

The Bengals have not been able to pull things together this season, but they are playing at home in Cincinnati for the first time in three weeks and that was the last time they won a game. They may get back on track against a Bills team who are themselves having an up and down season, but I’m not picking them to win by four until I see a better performance all round. I would be very happy to be proved wrong about this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Giants (-7.5)

The injuries are piling up for Bears on the offensive line, Alshon Jeffery is on a four game suspension for breaking the NFL’s substance abuse policy, and they are on the road. This is a big line, but things do seem to be coming together for the Giants on both sides of the ball and so I’m picking them to cover this line, albeit somewhat nervously.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Steelers @ Browns (+9.5)

The Browns lost badly against the Ravens, and this week welcome the Steelers to Cleveland. Part of me wants to pick the Browns to cover as the Steelers have a habit of dropping games on the road against teams they shouldn’t, but the Steelers need this one too badly if they are to stay in the playoff hunt and having only narrowly lost to the Cowboys last week, I think they take care of business against the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Ravens @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Ravens have a good defence, and their offence did enough in the second half against the Browns last week despite being ranked dead last by DVOA, but they are on the road against a Cowboys team that are rolling. The Cowboys’ offence is what everybody is talking about, but the defence is playing much better than I thought they would and I think the Cowboys will keep things rolling this week at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Jaguars @ Lions (-6.5)

The Jaguars cannot get out of their own way thanks to the poor starts, but whilst I think the Lions will win this game, I am not picking them to win by seven against a team that seems to be experts at garbage time scores and covering the spread. I might regret this one, but Jaguars to cover in another losing effort.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Titans @ Colts (-2.5)

I’m really nervous about this one as I keep thinking the Titans have got a statement win so I pick them, and it then goes wrong. However, I think this week on the road they really should beat the Colts if they want to compete in the division and having thumped Green Bay last week, I’m placing my faith in what I think is the better team this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Buccaneers @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs should win this game as that is what they do, but I don’t see them winning by eight given the injuries they have on offence. I expect them to win a close game as that’s what they do, but the Bucs have shown enough that I don’t think they will lose by eight.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Cardinals @ Vikings (-0.5)

It seems strange to keep picking against the Vikings as I have a lot of faith in Mike Zimmer, and Dan is backing the Vikings to turn things around at home. However, as much as they are struggling on offence thanks to Carson Palmer’s wayward form, they have David Johnson and a tough defence, which despite making a meal of things against the 49ers last week, will have enough to defeat a Vikings team whose offensive line problems are preventing them from competing.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Dolphins @ Rams (+0.5)

So Jared Goff is now ready, and will be watched by many as the overall first pick makes his first start. What the Rams’ defence must make of the continuing problems on the other side of the ball I don’t know, but I am intrigued to see the rookie play. However, given the recent run of form, I’m not making the mistake of picking against the Dolphins on the road again, and having watched them beat the Chargers last week, I think they complete their west coast stay with a second win.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Patriots @ 49ers (+13.5)

This is a horrible line, which is what they are meant to be, but having been bitten by last week’s points when I backed the Patriots to beat Seattle by a lot, I’m not picking them again this week. I can totally see Brady playing lights out and destroying his boyhood team who didn’t give him a workout and beating this line, but I’m not going to pick that to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Eagles @ Seahawks (-6.5)

I am really looking forward to this game as I think it will be a cracker. I have so much respect for what the Seahawks did in travelling to New England on a short week and getting the win, but I don’t see them winning this one by seven. The Eagles got their own win last week, and with a better run game plus a defence that has played well and matches up a really good defensive line against an improving but still not stellar Seattle offensive line, the Eagles should make this a real contest. Russel Wilson looks mobile again, and the Seahawks are rounding into form towards the end of the season as usual so they may well win it, but as I said, I don’t see it being by seven.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Packers @ Washington (-2.5)

I picked the Packers last week as I had that lingering faith in Aaron Rodgers, but there is definitely a serious problem in Green Bay and a road trip to Washington is not exactly the game you would be looking for having lost badly to the improving Titans the previous week. I thought that the suspension of left tackle Trent Williams would really hurt Washington, but they managed to get another ugly win, which is what this team seems to do and I’m thinking they will do it again this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Texans @ Raiders (-6.5)

So Monday night football goes to Mexico and gives us a London style home game for the Raiders that pits their exciting offence against a Texans’ defence that is just outside of the top ten by DVOA. However, I am liking what I have seen out of the Raiders this year and their defence does seem to have picked up in the last couple of weeks, and so with them facing an offence that is hampered by the struggles of Brock Osweiler this season, I think they will win out handily in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Week 11 Picks

22 Sunday Nov 2015

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It’s one of those weekends where time and location are against me, so I will go over the Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars game and the problem with the Packers receivers getting open on next week’s pod. For now I’ve just got time to go through the rest of our picks for this week.

Colts @ Falcons (-6.5)

Both of these teams are coming off a bye, but whilst the Colts have been up and down all season, I think having a definitively healthy quarterback might help them, and whilst they may not win this game, given the recent form of the Falcons I am not comfortable picking them to win by a clear seven points.

Gee’s Pick:    Colts
Dan’s Pick:    Colts

Broncos @ Bears (-1.5)

The Broncos travel to Chicago with a new starting quarterback, and given how bad Peyton Manning has been this season, it’s just possible that things might work a little better on offence, or at least more like how Gary Kubiak wants to runs it. The Bears have been playing well over recent weeks, but the Broncos will be desperate to get their season back on track and if I am getting points for a seven and two team then I’m going to take them.

Gee’s Pick:    Broncos
Dan’s Pick:    Bears

Cowboys @ Dolphins (+0.5)

This is a straight up who wins pick, which really doesn’t help when picking a game involving a Cowboys team that have lost seven straight games who may be getting Tony Romo back against a Dolphins team who have been up and down, plus slightly lucky to pick up a win against the Eagles last week. I’m basically picking the home team, as I really don’t know who is going to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Raiders @ Lions (+1.5)

The Lions got there win last week, but were a bit lucky and I’m not sure they really have enough defence to cope with the Raiders. However, the defence of the Raiders has been a real problem over the last couple of weeks and with them travelling across to Detroit from Oakland I’m going to back the home team getting points, and will feel nervous about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Lions
Dan’s Pick:    Ravens

Rams @ Ravens (-1.5)

The Rams have sat Nick Foles who has not been playing well this season, and has repeatedly missed the designed deep throws off play action that the Rams offence is predicated on. Whether the move to Case Keenum gives them enough to exploit the Raven’s problems in the secondary I don’t know, but the Rams are a slightly better team and as I’m getting points as well then I’ll back them to win in Baltimore.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    Rams

Jets @ Texans (+2.5)

I thought the Texans defence played really well last week, but I don’t know if that effort is sustainable and they continue to have real problems on offence, including a backup quarterback starting for them this week. The Jets may have struggled in recent weeks, but I think they will have too much for the Texans in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Buccaneers @ Eagles (-5.5)

The Eagles have been up and down all seasons, and with Mark Sanchez at quarterback I wonder how they will go on offence, but their defence is really good and has been all season. Part of me wants to pick the Buccaneers to keep this close, but I don’t trust their defence, and with them being on the road I’m going to nervously back the Eagles to cover the spread in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Eagles
Dan’s Pick:    Eagles

Washington @ Panthers (-7.5)

Washington got a really good win last week, but I can’t see them tripping up this Panthers team that just keeps rolling. It’s a lot of points, but I don’t see Washington moving the ball on the Panthers’ defence, and so I’m backing them to cover the spread.

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Panthers

Chiefs @ Chargers (+2.5)

The Chiefs are on a bit of a roll, whilst the Chargers have just been so injured. I don’t think that Philip Rivers has enough weapons to take on a Chief’s defence and they’ve been bad on defence for most of the year, so I fancy the Chiefs to cover this spread on the road in San Diego

Gee’s Pick:    Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:    Chiefs

Packers @ Vikings (-0.5)

Not only have I picked against Mike Zimmer for two weeks and regretted it, but they also have the defence to keep a struggling Packers offence in check. I’m fed up of picking against a head coach that I really like, and he seems to have the Vikings playing really well.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Packers

49ers @ Seahawks (-12.5)

I think the Seahawks will win this game, but given how bad their offensive line has been, and therefore how disappointing their offence have been, I’m not going to back them to win by thirteen points despite the big win they had in San Francisco earlier in the season.

Gee’s Pick:    49ers
Dan’s Pick:    49ers

Bengals @ Cardinals (-3.5)

I am both really nervous about this game, and finding it hard to pick. I am hoping that the Bengals’ performance on Monday night was just a blip, but the Cardinals are a really good team. I am hoping it will be a close one, and getting that extra half point has just pushed me into keeping faith with the Bengals, but it really could go in any direction in Arizona with several Cardinals having ties back to the Bengals so I’m sure they will be desperate to get the win.

Gee’s Pick:    Bengals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

Bills @ Patriots (-7.5)

I am fairly confident that the Patriots will find a way to win this game, but given how injured they are, and the recent improvement in the Bill’s play I don’t see them winning by eight points, and it is possible that Rex Ryan will get the win he so desperately wants.

Gee’s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:    Bills

Salute to the Unheralded and Thursday Night Pick

19 Thursday Nov 2015

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With week ten in the books we can say goodbye to another team’s unbeaten record, and already my assessment of who might be in the scrap for playoff places from last week is looking outdated. There are all kinds of themes presenting themselves such as the number of penalties being called, the number of injuries this year, what actually constitutes a catch these days, but having touched upon it whilst recording the podcast with Dan yesterday I want to look somewhere else.

We were discussing the Pro Bowl voting being open, and Dan fell into the classic trap of listing the glamour positions, and somehow missed out tight ends and offensive linemen whilst discussing offence before I got to tackle defensive players (in fairness, due to time constraints I didn’t get a chance to look at safeties or special teams either). Now the Pro Bowl is given a lot of focus when discussing a player careers, but there is also a lot of name recognition that influences the voting. This shouldn’t be that surprising given the popularity of not only football, but fantasy football with its heavy emphasis on offensive skill players. However, football is a team sport that relies on eleven players performing a very specific set of synchronised tasks on each snap of the ball that all interact to achieve the desired task, be it offence, defence, or special teams.

In my brief sojourn into American football training, it quickly became apparent how reliant you are on those around you carrying out their jobs whilst you have to focus on yours. The helmets restrict your peripheral vision so you can’t second guess what is happening around you, and if you try then it is too late anyway. Football is a game of power, speed, and split second timing; and that’s at the amateur level. Those of us who write about the NFL may talk about bad players, but even those at the bottom of the depth chart are likely to have physical gifts we can only dream of. However, even the most talented of the high profile players aren’t going to get very far if their colleagues are struggling. If you want proof of this, look at the performance of Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson, who is coming into the prime of his career, and whose play is demonstrably being affected by the play of the offensive line in front on him. Right now he is too quick to pull the ball down and run when being rushed, but this is hardly a surprise given that he is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL so far this season, and imagine how bad those numbers could be if there was a less mobile quarterback behind that line.

So whilst I understand the focus on the spectacular plays, and the popularity that the fantasy game has brought to the league, there are an awful lot of players who are critical to your team’s successes who are not getting the love they deserve. The run stuffing defensive tackle who occupies two linemen so the star linebacker can make the tackle, the punt gunner who gets down the field fast enough to force a fair catch, the long snapper who only gets noticed when he fails to deliver a perfect ball to the punter or holder, or the blocking tight end who rarely catches a ball but is likely a huge part of your team’s running attack or ability to protect the quarterback. The sad fact is though, that as crucial as these players are, there are not the stats to always accurately explain what is going on. Whilst the headlines are over losing Dion Lewis, and Julian Edelman, the Patriots have also lost three tackles this season and yet somehow they are still finding ways to win. I don’t think either the Patriots or the Panthers are going unbeaten this season, it is just too hard and the margin for error is so small, but you wouldn’t bet against the Patriots going deep into the playoffs this season.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at tonight’s game the week after Dan claws back two games on me.

Gee:    Week 10   6-8             Overall   75-72
Dan:    Week 10   8-6             Overall   72-74

Titans @ Jaguars (-2.5)

We have the Tennessee Blues taking on the Jacksonville Golds in this week’s colour rush Thursday night game, which I am really looking forward to seeing for the two teams playing rather than the kits. I am curious to see what Mike Mularkey is doing with the Titans, and to get another look at Marcus Mariota. The Jaguars offence is coming together nicely, although they as a team need to cut out the mistakes, but I really like the two Allens in receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. I will back the Jaguars in this one as they seem to be gaining some momentum even if their last minute win against the Ravens was lucky.

Gee’s Pick:     Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:    Jaguars

NFL Week 11 Picks

13 Thursday Nov 2014

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For both Dan and I last week was a good one for picks and a bad one for how our teams actually played. As frustrated as Dan was by the close loss to the Lions, I think I win the crappiest team performance of the week after the debacle of the Bengals loss, and a historically bad performance by Andy Dalton. I’m not sure writing a picks column is the best way to cleanse that loss from my system, but I’ll give it a try and hope that I can keep the pressure on Dan by continuing to cut into his lead.

Gee:     Week 10   9-4              Overall   75-72
Dan:     Week 10   8-5              Overall   77-70

Bills @ Dolphins (-5.5)

This is a matchup of two very similar teams, both of which have really good defences, questions on offence, a 5-4 record, and both lost by four points on Sunday to quality teams.

The Bills issues on offence are at quarterback, and whilst that has stabilised somewhat since Kyle Orton became the starter, he is an average quarterback that is not going to win you games on his own. The Dolphins have also had questions at quarterback, but in recent weeks Ryan Tannehill has looked to have made progress and was going against the top ranked defence in the league last week.

The problem is that the Dolphins lost their left tackle Branden Albert for the year with ACL & MCL tears, I can speak from recent experience about what problems that can cause you, and that’s before we consider the defence that’s coming to town. I think this will be a close game, and whilst I don’t feel great sticking my neck out against what I assume will be a pick of Dolphins by Dan, I’m backing the Bills to stay within five in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Falcons @ Panthers (-1.5)

This game feels like a total crap shoot to me. The Falcons picked up their third win of the season against a horrible Buccaneers team whilst the Panthers slid to a 3-6-1 record with a big loss to the Eagles on Monday night. Thanks to the putrid nature of the NFC South this year, three wins still has you in the race for the division title, but I can’t see either of these teams as they are currently performing making a serious challenge. I am not sure how to judge the rankings at Football Outsiders as I can’t quantify how the huge win the Falcons had over the Buccaneers earlier in the year affects their respective standing, but the Falcons have more weapons and a better quarterback as they are currently playing, and with the Panthers defence struggling I’m reluctantly backing a second road underdog. This can’t end well.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Vikings @ Bears (-3.5)

Quietly the Vikings have got themselves four wins whilst the Bears have been falling apart over the last few weeks.

The Bears have given up over fifty points in their last two games and their only win against a team with a winning record is their week 2 game against the 49ers. We knew the defence was not going to be great, but it has been horrendous and it is one thing to get beat on talent, but when Jordy Nelson is dancing uncovered behind your safeties, you have real issues of coaching and scheme. What make this even worse is that the offence, which has talent enough at the skill position to match up with anybody, is also underperforming.

The Vikings have their issues, but Teddy Bridgewater managed not to turn the ball over against Washington, whilst throwing for 268 yards and a touchdown, and their defence is quietly ranked tenth in the league by DVOA. I’m worried that the Bears home losing streak has to end at some point, but I don’t see why they are getting the benefit of the doubt in points this week, I’ve seen nothing that makes me thing they’ve earned it this season.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Bengals @ Saints (-6.5)

This line is perfectly placed to make me waver, although I’m not sure how much of that is due to my current relationship with the Bengals.

The Saints stand atop the wretched NFC South division with their 4-5 record, and are coming off a narrow overtime loss to the 49ers. They have been playing well below the standards many expected, with the defence taking a step back from last year’s improved performance and perhaps more surprisingly, the offence also does not look quite right. In the 49ers game Drew Brees threw another strange interception as well as giving up a strip sack at the end of the game so the 49ers could kick the winning field goal. In fairness, on another day they could have won the game at the end of the fourth quarter as you rarely see a flag for a push off on the last play Hail Mary, but despite what Jimmy Graham claimed, the call was correct according to the rules.

On the other side of this game, I’m worried. The Bengals defence is having problems with the front seven, particularly in the run game, and the least said about Andy Dalton’s historically bad game the better. I’m hoping they will bounce back with some fire against the Saints, but New Orleans is not an easy place to play. I think the Saints will win, but I’m not ready to say the Bengals are going to get blown out again. This could be a pick based completely on hope, but I’m going with the Bengals to at least keep this game competitive.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Texans @ Browns (-3.5)

The Texans are coming off a bye and are starting Ryan Mallet in this game. The problem with this team has been the offence and Ryan Fitzpatrick has been holding them back, but I’m not sure that Mallet is nailed on to be the solution, particularly given the Arian Foster is currently listed as questionable with a groin injury. The Browns defence has not been playing as well as I expected of them, but despite the extra week to prepare, I’m not sure how successful you are going to be starting an inexperienced career backup in an away game. I think the Cleveland fans are going to be loud as they enjoy being in first place in the AFC North!

If this game was taking place before the Alex Mack injury, I would have no doubt in picking the Browns, but I suspect the line would be different. Since he has gone down, the Browns’ offence has not looked the same with the running game struggling, and the strong showing in last week’s game is somewhat undermined by the Bengals being dead last in rush defence by DVOA. I could regret this as I never like to pick against JJ Watt, but I’ll back the Browns in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Broncos @ Rams (+9.5)

The Rams did better in their loss last week against the Cardinals than the 14-31 score line might make you think. The talented defensive front seems to be finding its feet over the last couple of weeks and followed up their eight sack showing against the 49ers with another three sacks against the Cardinals. In fact it was only a couple of defensive touchdowns for the Cardinals late in the fourth quarter that finally finished off the Rams. The problem is that they just don’t have enough on offence to win and it’s taken special teams heroics or horrible opposition play for them to win.

This is not a week that they are going to get enough of those things to win. Despite their two losses, the Broncos remain the class team of the NFL and although they struggled at first against the Raiders, they soon managed to reassert their dominance to gain a big victory. If you get a chance, take a look at Brock Osweiler’s reaction to Peyton Manning going back in when he through he was. Otherwise, this should be another win for the Broncos and I expect them to cover the spread as well.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Seahawks @ Chiefs (-0.5)

The Chiefs did it again last week, finding ways to manufacture points against a Bills defence that is currently ranked fourth in defence by DVOA. They ran the ball well enough with Jamaal Charles demonstrating why he went early in so many fantasy drafts, and even Alex Smith got in on the act with a rushing touchdown to go with his 177 yards and no interceptions. They are also solid on defence, but the rush defence ranking of twenty-first by DOVA does worry me in this game.

The Seahawks have managed to get back on track with three straight wins, but they have come against the Panthers, Raiders, and Giants, so it might not be time to get too excited yet. They managed an incredible 350 yards of rushing against the Giants, but they don’t have a lot of options in the passing game and Russell Wilson threw two interceptions to go with him hundred yards rushing and touchdown. The defence are just not what they were last year, which is probably not surprising given their outstanding level of play last season, but it was still surprising to see a rookie receiver get behind Richard Sherman.

I think this should be a good game, but I think the Chiefs solid brand of football will win out in a noisy Arrowhead Stadium.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

49ers @ Giants (+4.5)

The Giants are in trouble, and when defensive players are plain avoiding even trying to make a tackle then you know it is bad. They are not exactly terrible, but are ranked either eighteenth or twentieth by DVOA in all three phases of the game, and such mediocrity is not turning into wins. The one real bright spot is rookie receiver Odell Beckham who has shown real potential, as show when he got behind Richard Sherman with a lovely move last week.

The 49ers managed to get the win last week, reverting back to type in offence by focussing on the run. Between the difficulties they’ve had moving the ball on offence, and the injuries on defence, it has been a tough season for the 49ers but they’re still in the hunt for a playoff spot and I think that they will help that quest despite the long trip across the country this week.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Buccaneers @ Washington (-6.5)

This is not a good game. The Buccaneers have been every bit as woeful as their 1-8 record would suggest, whilst Washington have not exactly inspired many people either. I was surprised that RG3 started in their week 9 loss against the Vikings given they had a bye the following, but he should be healthier now and whilst I’m not convinced by the, I think they will win this game. The points do make pause, but I’m not backing the Buccaneers to do much of anything right now.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Raiders @ Chargers (-10.5)

After a strong start that included conversations about Phillip Rivers being in contention for MVP, the Chargers have fallen off in recent weeks as injuring started to catch up with them. They have been on a bye, but there are only so many centres you can lose before it affects your offence and their rush offence is currently ranked twenty-eight in the league by DVOA. I expect them to bounce back with a win this week, but I don’t see them at this point putting up a huge win over the Raiders.

There are only so many things that you can write about a team that has lost nine games straight this season. There are a few promising young players, but the offseason signing of veterans to put this team over the top has clearly not worked, and they would have been better off to follow the Jaguars’ lead in building through youth as at least you have hope for the future. They haven’t put themselves in cap purgatory with these signings, but it is going to be a long time before the Raiders get back to consistent winning and there are too many players getting game time now that won’t be able to help them when they do start winning.. That said, I think they will keep it close enough to cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Lions @ Cardinals (-1.5)

I feel so sorry for Carson Palmer, this is best team he’s played on since the last time he injured his ACL with the Bengals. They continue to play excellent defence and are doing well enough to win on offence with rookie receiver John Brown seeming to make a highlight play catch late in the game each week. Speaking of highlights, we know Patrick Peterson is good, but his tipped interception that he returned for a touchdown was a spectacular play that helped put the game away for the Cardinals and I struggle to believe that was the first interception he’s returned for a touchdown.

The Lions have continued their turnaround under Jim Caldwell, they still lead the league by defensive DVOA and now have Calvin Johnson back from injury. There are still questions about Matthew Stafford’s play, but the side arm throw he used to deliver the game winning touchdown pass to Theo Riddick was the only way that he could get the ball there.

I think the Cardinals have been brilliantly coached this season, and I think they will continue to be good, but this is a big test for Drew Stanton and I think I’d rather be on the side of Mattew Stafford and Calvin Johnsons in this game given how good both defences are, although I’m not happy about going against the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Eagles @ Packers (-5.5)

The Packers battered the Bears at Lambeau Field last week, seemingly scoring at will whilst Clay Matthews played very well spending time at middle linebacker in early downs before reverting back to his more familiar pass rusher role on third down. Time will tell if this is an adjustment that can help solidify the defence enough to help them get back to the Super Bowl, but it looked like a fair start.

The Eagles also are coming off a good win, having easily taken care of the Panthers on Monday night football. They are still having problems with their running game, but the pass game continued to work with Mark Sanchez throwing for a very respectable three hundred yards and two touchdowns in his first start as an Eagle. Add to that a defence that is ranked sixth in the league by DVOA and special teams that leads the league, and you can see why the Eagles are winning games.

I think this is going to be one of the games of the week and I’m surprised that the packers are giving so many points. I think either side can win, but I don’t think that Eagles are going to lose by this much.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Patriots @ Colts (-2.5)

This should be another really good game, with both teams having a strong season.

The Colts season has been driven but Andrew Luck’s excellent play and a defence that has done enough for them to win games. They are still struggling with their running game but when you have a quarterback of Luck’s ability, you can make up for that.

The Patriots has a wobble at the start of the season, which suckered a lot of people into thinking the Brady-Belichick era was over. We are still closer to that being the case than not, but they again look like the team that will win at least ten games and their division.

This should be a close game, but I have more faith in Belichick’s ability to game plan a defence for the Colts than that they can stop Gronkowski, which may seem counterintuitive given that the Colts actually rank higher by defensive DVOA than the Patriots, but I think the Patriots stats are suffering from their early blowout loss to the Chiefs and frankly I’m fed up of being beaten by them.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Steelers @ Titans (+5.5)

Is there any team that has been more up and down the Steelers this season? They followed up strong wins against the Colts and Ravens by giving the perennially rebuilding Jets a second win for the season, and previously gave the woeful Buccaneers their only win of the year. However, the Titans are awful and Dick LeBeau has an amazing record against rookie quarterbacks, which does no bode well for the Titans’ sixth round pick Zack Mettenberger. I’m a little worried by the points just because of the erratic nature of the Steelers’ performance, but I’d need to be getting a lot more before I picked the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

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