Last week was something of a disaster picking wise, which leaves Dan and me level again going into week eleven.

Gee:      Week 10   4-10                   Overall   65-82
Dan:      Week 10   9-5                     Overall   65-82

Bills @ Bengals (-3.5)

The Bengals have not been able to pull things together this season, but they are playing at home in Cincinnati for the first time in three weeks and that was the last time they won a game. They may get back on track against a Bills team who are themselves having an up and down season, but I’m not picking them to win by four until I see a better performance all round. I would be very happy to be proved wrong about this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Giants (-7.5)

The injuries are piling up for Bears on the offensive line, Alshon Jeffery is on a four game suspension for breaking the NFL’s substance abuse policy, and they are on the road. This is a big line, but things do seem to be coming together for the Giants on both sides of the ball and so I’m picking them to cover this line, albeit somewhat nervously.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Steelers @ Browns (+9.5)

The Browns lost badly against the Ravens, and this week welcome the Steelers to Cleveland. Part of me wants to pick the Browns to cover as the Steelers have a habit of dropping games on the road against teams they shouldn’t, but the Steelers need this one too badly if they are to stay in the playoff hunt and having only narrowly lost to the Cowboys last week, I think they take care of business against the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Ravens @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Ravens have a good defence, and their offence did enough in the second half against the Browns last week despite being ranked dead last by DVOA, but they are on the road against a Cowboys team that are rolling. The Cowboys’ offence is what everybody is talking about, but the defence is playing much better than I thought they would and I think the Cowboys will keep things rolling this week at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Jaguars @ Lions (-6.5)

The Jaguars cannot get out of their own way thanks to the poor starts, but whilst I think the Lions will win this game, I am not picking them to win by seven against a team that seems to be experts at garbage time scores and covering the spread. I might regret this one, but Jaguars to cover in another losing effort.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Titans @ Colts (-2.5)

I’m really nervous about this one as I keep thinking the Titans have got a statement win so I pick them, and it then goes wrong. However, I think this week on the road they really should beat the Colts if they want to compete in the division and having thumped Green Bay last week, I’m placing my faith in what I think is the better team this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Buccaneers @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs should win this game as that is what they do, but I don’t see them winning by eight given the injuries they have on offence. I expect them to win a close game as that’s what they do, but the Bucs have shown enough that I don’t think they will lose by eight.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Cardinals @ Vikings (-0.5)

It seems strange to keep picking against the Vikings as I have a lot of faith in Mike Zimmer, and Dan is backing the Vikings to turn things around at home. However, as much as they are struggling on offence thanks to Carson Palmer’s wayward form, they have David Johnson and a tough defence, which despite making a meal of things against the 49ers last week, will have enough to defeat a Vikings team whose offensive line problems are preventing them from competing.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Dolphins @ Rams (+0.5)

So Jared Goff is now ready, and will be watched by many as the overall first pick makes his first start. What the Rams’ defence must make of the continuing problems on the other side of the ball I don’t know, but I am intrigued to see the rookie play. However, given the recent run of form, I’m not making the mistake of picking against the Dolphins on the road again, and having watched them beat the Chargers last week, I think they complete their west coast stay with a second win.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Patriots @ 49ers (+13.5)

This is a horrible line, which is what they are meant to be, but having been bitten by last week’s points when I backed the Patriots to beat Seattle by a lot, I’m not picking them again this week. I can totally see Brady playing lights out and destroying his boyhood team who didn’t give him a workout and beating this line, but I’m not going to pick that to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Eagles @ Seahawks (-6.5)

I am really looking forward to this game as I think it will be a cracker. I have so much respect for what the Seahawks did in travelling to New England on a short week and getting the win, but I don’t see them winning this one by seven. The Eagles got their own win last week, and with a better run game plus a defence that has played well and matches up a really good defensive line against an improving but still not stellar Seattle offensive line, the Eagles should make this a real contest. Russel Wilson looks mobile again, and the Seahawks are rounding into form towards the end of the season as usual so they may well win it, but as I said, I don’t see it being by seven.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Packers @ Washington (-2.5)

I picked the Packers last week as I had that lingering faith in Aaron Rodgers, but there is definitely a serious problem in Green Bay and a road trip to Washington is not exactly the game you would be looking for having lost badly to the improving Titans the previous week. I thought that the suspension of left tackle Trent Williams would really hurt Washington, but they managed to get another ugly win, which is what this team seems to do and I’m thinking they will do it again this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Texans @ Raiders (-6.5)

So Monday night football goes to Mexico and gives us a London style home game for the Raiders that pits their exciting offence against a Texans’ defence that is just outside of the top ten by DVOA. However, I am liking what I have seen out of the Raiders this year and their defence does seem to have picked up in the last couple of weeks, and so with them facing an offence that is hampered by the struggles of Brock Osweiler this season, I think they will win out handily in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

It’s one of those weekends where time and location are against me, so I will go over the Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars game and the problem with the Packers receivers getting open on next week’s pod. For now I’ve just got time to go through the rest of our picks for this week.

Colts @ Falcons (-6.5)

Both of these teams are coming off a bye, but whilst the Colts have been up and down all season, I think having a definitively healthy quarterback might help them, and whilst they may not win this game, given the recent form of the Falcons I am not comfortable picking them to win by a clear seven points.

Gee’s Pick:    Colts
Dan’s Pick:    Colts

Broncos @ Bears (-1.5)

The Broncos travel to Chicago with a new starting quarterback, and given how bad Peyton Manning has been this season, it’s just possible that things might work a little better on offence, or at least more like how Gary Kubiak wants to runs it. The Bears have been playing well over recent weeks, but the Broncos will be desperate to get their season back on track and if I am getting points for a seven and two team then I’m going to take them.

Gee’s Pick:    Broncos
Dan’s Pick:    Bears

Cowboys @ Dolphins (+0.5)

This is a straight up who wins pick, which really doesn’t help when picking a game involving a Cowboys team that have lost seven straight games who may be getting Tony Romo back against a Dolphins team who have been up and down, plus slightly lucky to pick up a win against the Eagles last week. I’m basically picking the home team, as I really don’t know who is going to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Raiders @ Lions (+1.5)

The Lions got there win last week, but were a bit lucky and I’m not sure they really have enough defence to cope with the Raiders. However, the defence of the Raiders has been a real problem over the last couple of weeks and with them travelling across to Detroit from Oakland I’m going to back the home team getting points, and will feel nervous about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Lions
Dan’s Pick:    Ravens

Rams @ Ravens (-1.5)

The Rams have sat Nick Foles who has not been playing well this season, and has repeatedly missed the designed deep throws off play action that the Rams offence is predicated on. Whether the move to Case Keenum gives them enough to exploit the Raven’s problems in the secondary I don’t know, but the Rams are a slightly better team and as I’m getting points as well then I’ll back them to win in Baltimore.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    Rams

Jets @ Texans (+2.5)

I thought the Texans defence played really well last week, but I don’t know if that effort is sustainable and they continue to have real problems on offence, including a backup quarterback starting for them this week. The Jets may have struggled in recent weeks, but I think they will have too much for the Texans in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Buccaneers @ Eagles (-5.5)

The Eagles have been up and down all seasons, and with Mark Sanchez at quarterback I wonder how they will go on offence, but their defence is really good and has been all season. Part of me wants to pick the Buccaneers to keep this close, but I don’t trust their defence, and with them being on the road I’m going to nervously back the Eagles to cover the spread in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Eagles
Dan’s Pick:    Eagles

Washington @ Panthers (-7.5)

Washington got a really good win last week, but I can’t see them tripping up this Panthers team that just keeps rolling. It’s a lot of points, but I don’t see Washington moving the ball on the Panthers’ defence, and so I’m backing them to cover the spread.

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Panthers

Chiefs @ Chargers (+2.5)

The Chiefs are on a bit of a roll, whilst the Chargers have just been so injured. I don’t think that Philip Rivers has enough weapons to take on a Chief’s defence and they’ve been bad on defence for most of the year, so I fancy the Chiefs to cover this spread on the road in San Diego

Gee’s Pick:    Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:    Chiefs

Packers @ Vikings (-0.5)

Not only have I picked against Mike Zimmer for two weeks and regretted it, but they also have the defence to keep a struggling Packers offence in check. I’m fed up of picking against a head coach that I really like, and he seems to have the Vikings playing really well.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Packers

49ers @ Seahawks (-12.5)

I think the Seahawks will win this game, but given how bad their offensive line has been, and therefore how disappointing their offence have been, I’m not going to back them to win by thirteen points despite the big win they had in San Francisco earlier in the season.

Gee’s Pick:    49ers
Dan’s Pick:    49ers

Bengals @ Cardinals (-3.5)

I am both really nervous about this game, and finding it hard to pick. I am hoping that the Bengals’ performance on Monday night was just a blip, but the Cardinals are a really good team. I am hoping it will be a close one, and getting that extra half point has just pushed me into keeping faith with the Bengals, but it really could go in any direction in Arizona with several Cardinals having ties back to the Bengals so I’m sure they will be desperate to get the win.

Gee’s Pick:    Bengals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

Bills @ Patriots (-7.5)

I am fairly confident that the Patriots will find a way to win this game, but given how injured they are, and the recent improvement in the Bill’s play I don’t see them winning by eight points, and it is possible that Rex Ryan will get the win he so desperately wants.

Gee’s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:    Bills

With week ten in the books we can say goodbye to another team’s unbeaten record, and already my assessment of who might be in the scrap for playoff places from last week is looking outdated. There are all kinds of themes presenting themselves such as the number of penalties being called, the number of injuries this year, what actually constitutes a catch these days, but having touched upon it whilst recording the podcast with Dan yesterday I want to look somewhere else.

We were discussing the Pro Bowl voting being open, and Dan fell into the classic trap of listing the glamour positions, and somehow missed out tight ends and offensive linemen whilst discussing offence before I got to tackle defensive players (in fairness, due to time constraints I didn’t get a chance to look at safeties or special teams either). Now the Pro Bowl is given a lot of focus when discussing a player careers, but there is also a lot of name recognition that influences the voting. This shouldn’t be that surprising given the popularity of not only football, but fantasy football with its heavy emphasis on offensive skill players. However, football is a team sport that relies on eleven players performing a very specific set of synchronised tasks on each snap of the ball that all interact to achieve the desired task, be it offence, defence, or special teams.

In my brief sojourn into American football training, it quickly became apparent how reliant you are on those around you carrying out their jobs whilst you have to focus on yours. The helmets restrict your peripheral vision so you can’t second guess what is happening around you, and if you try then it is too late anyway. Football is a game of power, speed, and split second timing; and that’s at the amateur level. Those of us who write about the NFL may talk about bad players, but even those at the bottom of the depth chart are likely to have physical gifts we can only dream of. However, even the most talented of the high profile players aren’t going to get very far if their colleagues are struggling. If you want proof of this, look at the performance of Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson, who is coming into the prime of his career, and whose play is demonstrably being affected by the play of the offensive line in front on him. Right now he is too quick to pull the ball down and run when being rushed, but this is hardly a surprise given that he is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL so far this season, and imagine how bad those numbers could be if there was a less mobile quarterback behind that line.

So whilst I understand the focus on the spectacular plays, and the popularity that the fantasy game has brought to the league, there are an awful lot of players who are critical to your team’s successes who are not getting the love they deserve. The run stuffing defensive tackle who occupies two linemen so the star linebacker can make the tackle, the punt gunner who gets down the field fast enough to force a fair catch, the long snapper who only gets noticed when he fails to deliver a perfect ball to the punter or holder, or the blocking tight end who rarely catches a ball but is likely a huge part of your team’s running attack or ability to protect the quarterback. The sad fact is though, that as crucial as these players are, there are not the stats to always accurately explain what is going on. Whilst the headlines are over losing Dion Lewis, and Julian Edelman, the Patriots have also lost three tackles this season and yet somehow they are still finding ways to win. I don’t think either the Patriots or the Panthers are going unbeaten this season, it is just too hard and the margin for error is so small, but you wouldn’t bet against the Patriots going deep into the playoffs this season.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at tonight’s game the week after Dan claws back two games on me.

Gee:    Week 10   6-8             Overall   75-72
Dan:    Week 10   8-6             Overall   72-74

Titans @ Jaguars (-2.5)

We have the Tennessee Blues taking on the Jacksonville Golds in this week’s colour rush Thursday night game, which I am really looking forward to seeing for the two teams playing rather than the kits. I am curious to see what Mike Mularkey is doing with the Titans, and to get another look at Marcus Mariota. The Jaguars offence is coming together nicely, although they as a team need to cut out the mistakes, but I really like the two Allens in receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. I will back the Jaguars in this one as they seem to be gaining some momentum even if their last minute win against the Ravens was lucky.

Gee’s Pick:     Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:    Jaguars

For both Dan and I last week was a good one for picks and a bad one for how our teams actually played. As frustrated as Dan was by the close loss to the Lions, I think I win the crappiest team performance of the week after the debacle of the Bengals loss, and a historically bad performance by Andy Dalton. I’m not sure writing a picks column is the best way to cleanse that loss from my system, but I’ll give it a try and hope that I can keep the pressure on Dan by continuing to cut into his lead.

Gee:     Week 10   9-4              Overall   75-72
Dan:     Week 10   8-5              Overall   77-70

Bills @ Dolphins (-5.5)

This is a matchup of two very similar teams, both of which have really good defences, questions on offence, a 5-4 record, and both lost by four points on Sunday to quality teams.

The Bills issues on offence are at quarterback, and whilst that has stabilised somewhat since Kyle Orton became the starter, he is an average quarterback that is not going to win you games on his own. The Dolphins have also had questions at quarterback, but in recent weeks Ryan Tannehill has looked to have made progress and was going against the top ranked defence in the league last week.

The problem is that the Dolphins lost their left tackle Branden Albert for the year with ACL & MCL tears, I can speak from recent experience about what problems that can cause you, and that’s before we consider the defence that’s coming to town. I think this will be a close game, and whilst I don’t feel great sticking my neck out against what I assume will be a pick of Dolphins by Dan, I’m backing the Bills to stay within five in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Falcons @ Panthers (-1.5)

This game feels like a total crap shoot to me. The Falcons picked up their third win of the season against a horrible Buccaneers team whilst the Panthers slid to a 3-6-1 record with a big loss to the Eagles on Monday night. Thanks to the putrid nature of the NFC South this year, three wins still has you in the race for the division title, but I can’t see either of these teams as they are currently performing making a serious challenge. I am not sure how to judge the rankings at Football Outsiders as I can’t quantify how the huge win the Falcons had over the Buccaneers earlier in the year affects their respective standing, but the Falcons have more weapons and a better quarterback as they are currently playing, and with the Panthers defence struggling I’m reluctantly backing a second road underdog. This can’t end well.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Vikings @ Bears (-3.5)

Quietly the Vikings have got themselves four wins whilst the Bears have been falling apart over the last few weeks.

The Bears have given up over fifty points in their last two games and their only win against a team with a winning record is their week 2 game against the 49ers. We knew the defence was not going to be great, but it has been horrendous and it is one thing to get beat on talent, but when Jordy Nelson is dancing uncovered behind your safeties, you have real issues of coaching and scheme. What make this even worse is that the offence, which has talent enough at the skill position to match up with anybody, is also underperforming.

The Vikings have their issues, but Teddy Bridgewater managed not to turn the ball over against Washington, whilst throwing for 268 yards and a touchdown, and their defence is quietly ranked tenth in the league by DVOA. I’m worried that the Bears home losing streak has to end at some point, but I don’t see why they are getting the benefit of the doubt in points this week, I’ve seen nothing that makes me thing they’ve earned it this season.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Bengals @ Saints (-6.5)

This line is perfectly placed to make me waver, although I’m not sure how much of that is due to my current relationship with the Bengals.

The Saints stand atop the wretched NFC South division with their 4-5 record, and are coming off a narrow overtime loss to the 49ers. They have been playing well below the standards many expected, with the defence taking a step back from last year’s improved performance and perhaps more surprisingly, the offence also does not look quite right. In the 49ers game Drew Brees threw another strange interception as well as giving up a strip sack at the end of the game so the 49ers could kick the winning field goal. In fairness, on another day they could have won the game at the end of the fourth quarter as you rarely see a flag for a push off on the last play Hail Mary, but despite what Jimmy Graham claimed, the call was correct according to the rules.

On the other side of this game, I’m worried. The Bengals defence is having problems with the front seven, particularly in the run game, and the least said about Andy Dalton’s historically bad game the better. I’m hoping they will bounce back with some fire against the Saints, but New Orleans is not an easy place to play. I think the Saints will win, but I’m not ready to say the Bengals are going to get blown out again. This could be a pick based completely on hope, but I’m going with the Bengals to at least keep this game competitive.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Texans @ Browns (-3.5)

The Texans are coming off a bye and are starting Ryan Mallet in this game. The problem with this team has been the offence and Ryan Fitzpatrick has been holding them back, but I’m not sure that Mallet is nailed on to be the solution, particularly given the Arian Foster is currently listed as questionable with a groin injury. The Browns defence has not been playing as well as I expected of them, but despite the extra week to prepare, I’m not sure how successful you are going to be starting an inexperienced career backup in an away game. I think the Cleveland fans are going to be loud as they enjoy being in first place in the AFC North!

If this game was taking place before the Alex Mack injury, I would have no doubt in picking the Browns, but I suspect the line would be different. Since he has gone down, the Browns’ offence has not looked the same with the running game struggling, and the strong showing in last week’s game is somewhat undermined by the Bengals being dead last in rush defence by DVOA. I could regret this as I never like to pick against JJ Watt, but I’ll back the Browns in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Broncos @ Rams (+9.5)

The Rams did better in their loss last week against the Cardinals than the 14-31 score line might make you think. The talented defensive front seems to be finding its feet over the last couple of weeks and followed up their eight sack showing against the 49ers with another three sacks against the Cardinals. In fact it was only a couple of defensive touchdowns for the Cardinals late in the fourth quarter that finally finished off the Rams. The problem is that they just don’t have enough on offence to win and it’s taken special teams heroics or horrible opposition play for them to win.

This is not a week that they are going to get enough of those things to win. Despite their two losses, the Broncos remain the class team of the NFL and although they struggled at first against the Raiders, they soon managed to reassert their dominance to gain a big victory. If you get a chance, take a look at Brock Osweiler’s reaction to Peyton Manning going back in when he through he was. Otherwise, this should be another win for the Broncos and I expect them to cover the spread as well.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Seahawks @ Chiefs (-0.5)

The Chiefs did it again last week, finding ways to manufacture points against a Bills defence that is currently ranked fourth in defence by DVOA. They ran the ball well enough with Jamaal Charles demonstrating why he went early in so many fantasy drafts, and even Alex Smith got in on the act with a rushing touchdown to go with his 177 yards and no interceptions. They are also solid on defence, but the rush defence ranking of twenty-first by DOVA does worry me in this game.

The Seahawks have managed to get back on track with three straight wins, but they have come against the Panthers, Raiders, and Giants, so it might not be time to get too excited yet. They managed an incredible 350 yards of rushing against the Giants, but they don’t have a lot of options in the passing game and Russell Wilson threw two interceptions to go with him hundred yards rushing and touchdown. The defence are just not what they were last year, which is probably not surprising given their outstanding level of play last season, but it was still surprising to see a rookie receiver get behind Richard Sherman.

I think this should be a good game, but I think the Chiefs solid brand of football will win out in a noisy Arrowhead Stadium.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

49ers @ Giants (+4.5)

The Giants are in trouble, and when defensive players are plain avoiding even trying to make a tackle then you know it is bad. They are not exactly terrible, but are ranked either eighteenth or twentieth by DVOA in all three phases of the game, and such mediocrity is not turning into wins. The one real bright spot is rookie receiver Odell Beckham who has shown real potential, as show when he got behind Richard Sherman with a lovely move last week.

The 49ers managed to get the win last week, reverting back to type in offence by focussing on the run. Between the difficulties they’ve had moving the ball on offence, and the injuries on defence, it has been a tough season for the 49ers but they’re still in the hunt for a playoff spot and I think that they will help that quest despite the long trip across the country this week.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Buccaneers @ Washington (-6.5)

This is not a good game. The Buccaneers have been every bit as woeful as their 1-8 record would suggest, whilst Washington have not exactly inspired many people either. I was surprised that RG3 started in their week 9 loss against the Vikings given they had a bye the following, but he should be healthier now and whilst I’m not convinced by the, I think they will win this game. The points do make pause, but I’m not backing the Buccaneers to do much of anything right now.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Raiders @ Chargers (-10.5)

After a strong start that included conversations about Phillip Rivers being in contention for MVP, the Chargers have fallen off in recent weeks as injuring started to catch up with them. They have been on a bye, but there are only so many centres you can lose before it affects your offence and their rush offence is currently ranked twenty-eight in the league by DVOA. I expect them to bounce back with a win this week, but I don’t see them at this point putting up a huge win over the Raiders.

There are only so many things that you can write about a team that has lost nine games straight this season. There are a few promising young players, but the offseason signing of veterans to put this team over the top has clearly not worked, and they would have been better off to follow the Jaguars’ lead in building through youth as at least you have hope for the future. They haven’t put themselves in cap purgatory with these signings, but it is going to be a long time before the Raiders get back to consistent winning and there are too many players getting game time now that won’t be able to help them when they do start winning.. That said, I think they will keep it close enough to cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Lions @ Cardinals (-1.5)

I feel so sorry for Carson Palmer, this is best team he’s played on since the last time he injured his ACL with the Bengals. They continue to play excellent defence and are doing well enough to win on offence with rookie receiver John Brown seeming to make a highlight play catch late in the game each week. Speaking of highlights, we know Patrick Peterson is good, but his tipped interception that he returned for a touchdown was a spectacular play that helped put the game away for the Cardinals and I struggle to believe that was the first interception he’s returned for a touchdown.

The Lions have continued their turnaround under Jim Caldwell, they still lead the league by defensive DVOA and now have Calvin Johnson back from injury. There are still questions about Matthew Stafford’s play, but the side arm throw he used to deliver the game winning touchdown pass to Theo Riddick was the only way that he could get the ball there.

I think the Cardinals have been brilliantly coached this season, and I think they will continue to be good, but this is a big test for Drew Stanton and I think I’d rather be on the side of Mattew Stafford and Calvin Johnsons in this game given how good both defences are, although I’m not happy about going against the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Eagles @ Packers (-5.5)

The Packers battered the Bears at Lambeau Field last week, seemingly scoring at will whilst Clay Matthews played very well spending time at middle linebacker in early downs before reverting back to his more familiar pass rusher role on third down. Time will tell if this is an adjustment that can help solidify the defence enough to help them get back to the Super Bowl, but it looked like a fair start.

The Eagles also are coming off a good win, having easily taken care of the Panthers on Monday night football. They are still having problems with their running game, but the pass game continued to work with Mark Sanchez throwing for a very respectable three hundred yards and two touchdowns in his first start as an Eagle. Add to that a defence that is ranked sixth in the league by DVOA and special teams that leads the league, and you can see why the Eagles are winning games.

I think this is going to be one of the games of the week and I’m surprised that the packers are giving so many points. I think either side can win, but I don’t think that Eagles are going to lose by this much.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Patriots @ Colts (-2.5)

This should be another really good game, with both teams having a strong season.

The Colts season has been driven but Andrew Luck’s excellent play and a defence that has done enough for them to win games. They are still struggling with their running game but when you have a quarterback of Luck’s ability, you can make up for that.

The Patriots has a wobble at the start of the season, which suckered a lot of people into thinking the Brady-Belichick era was over. We are still closer to that being the case than not, but they again look like the team that will win at least ten games and their division.

This should be a close game, but I have more faith in Belichick’s ability to game plan a defence for the Colts than that they can stop Gronkowski, which may seem counterintuitive given that the Colts actually rank higher by defensive DVOA than the Patriots, but I think the Patriots stats are suffering from their early blowout loss to the Chiefs and frankly I’m fed up of being beaten by them.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Steelers @ Titans (+5.5)

Is there any team that has been more up and down the Steelers this season? They followed up strong wins against the Colts and Ravens by giving the perennially rebuilding Jets a second win for the season, and previously gave the woeful Buccaneers their only win of the year. However, the Titans are awful and Dick LeBeau has an amazing record against rookie quarterbacks, which does no bode well for the Titans’ sixth round pick Zack Mettenberger. I’m a little worried by the points just because of the erratic nature of the Steelers’ performance, but I’d need to be getting a lot more before I picked the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers