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I unfortunately scored the inverse to Dan in another bad week for picks, which saw Dan open up a two point lead as I fell closer to a fifty percent win percentage.

Gee:Week 10:  6 – 8Overall:  77 – 73
Dan:Week 10:  8 – 6Overall:  79 – 71

Patriots @ Falcons (+6.5)

I don’t know if I cursed the Falcons by expressing an interest last week, but they got beat heavily by the Cowboys on Sunday. Now they have questions around Cordarrelle Patterson’s ankle injury and face possibly the worst defence for them on a short week in their current iteration. You have to think that Bill Belichick will have plans for rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, and the Patriots should have more than enough pass rush to make life difficult for Matt Ryan behind an offensive line that struggled to protect him against the Cowboys.

So far this season Mac Jones has been the pick of the rookie quarterbacks, and whilst this has not resulted in a dynamic passing offence, the Patriots have a formula that is definitely working for them now that they seem to be over their traditional slow start.

I’m always concerned laying points on the road on a Thursday night, but I think these are two teams heading in different directions right now.

Gee’s Pick:     Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Patriots

Survivor Competition

Neither Dan or I managed to survive last week, with Dan’s faith in the Steelers undermined by a late Covid-19 scratch for Ben Roethlisberger while the addition of Cam Newton seemed to do for me.

I don’t think either of us should feel too bad about last week’s results, but we both need to get back on track this week. My strategy for this would be to back the Titans to keep their win streak going against the Texans, even if I am giving the Texans a hard look as a underdog cover for Sunday, but Dan pipped me to that selection.

As a result I’m stealing an option he was considering but isn’t available to him and I’m grabbing the Patriots going against the Falcons.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 5

Week 11 Selection:

Gee:    Titans
Dan:    Patriots

Bold Prediction of the Week

My bold prediction for the week definitely counts as bold.

For all that the Chiefs have won three in a row and have taken the lead in the AFC West, the Packers were without Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott has the options at the skills positions to work round an improving Chiefs pass rush. Not to mention that the Cowboys defence currently matches the offence in DVOA ranking as both units are ranked fourth.

This is the third overall team by DVOA in the Cowboys versus the fourteenth in the Chiefs, and yet in a fit of podcast pressure I have predicted the Chiefs will win. I don’t know that my pick this Sunday will follow this…

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.