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2020 Week Eight Picks

01 Sunday Nov 2020

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It was a rough start to the week eight picks competition for me, but I was going on the information I had available and I think I would make the same pick again. Clearly I need to be careful about what to make of the Falcons going forward but I can’t over adjust as I have been slowly whiltling down Dan’s lead. Let’s see if I can get any closer to Dan this week as I go through the games that leap out to me across the rest of week eight.

Early Games:

For the second week in the highlight of the early Sunday games feature the Pittsburgh Steelers who after holding on for the win against the Titans now travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. We get to see this matchup at least twice a year, and it is particularly tasty this season as the Steelers take their unbeaten record to a rested 5-1 Ravens team. The only loss the Ravens have was against the Chiefs, but despite their bye there are questions about their offence as it is not running as smoothly as last season and their blitz heavy defensive scheme is not an ideal matchup against Ben Roethlisberger who is getting the ball out as fast as any quarterback in the league. I can see either team winning this one, but with the consensus number being higher and the extra half point the Ravens are laying over a field goal I’m going to take the Steelers.

The other game that grabs my attention is as much about the importance of the result as the play of both teams. The New England Patriots travel to face the Bills on a three-game losing streak and are struggling on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton has not looked right since he came off the Covid list and the Patriots have just put their most productive receiver Julian Edleman on IR. As strange as it feels to pick against Bill Bellichick (even under these circumstance) and particularly as the Bills have been struggling in recent weeks as defenses adjust to Josh Allen’s hot start to the season, the numbers indicate the -3.5 line should be higher and so with a little reluctance I am backing the Bills in a game they need to win to maintain their hold on the AFC East and to keep themselves ahead of the lurking Dolphins

The Dolphins are my other game from the early set to watch, both because I am curious to see how the LA Rams do with yet another trip across the country (their fourth in eight weeks) but mainly because this game sees rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa make his first start. Even only residing on the periphery of Dolphins fandom through my friendship with Dan, I can feel the excitement over Tua time and I just hope that everything goes well for him. That said, with he Rams travelling to Miami I am also grabbing the points so I will have my own selfish reasons for hoping the Dolphins play well, even it is the hope is that they can keep the game closer than four points.

  • The Titans will be looking to bounce back from their loss to the Steelers while the Bengals have been dealing with some malcontents in the lockeroom. The numbers all show that the Titans are the team to pick, which feels odd as the Bengals have been in all their games bar the Ravens and given how the Titans’ defense is playing and recent performances by the Bengals I am going to back them to stay within six.
  • The Raiders and Browns are right next to each other by overall DVOA, and this could be a close game, but the numbers are telling me to take the Raiders so that’s where I’m going. However, it is interesting to me that the Browns as the twenty-second ranked team by DVOA have a 5-2 record while the Raiders at twenty-third are 3-3.
  • The Detroit Lions come off a win that to an extent they lucked into with the Falcons haplessly scoring a touchdown to give the Lions the ball back, but Matt Stafford still had to drive down the field and score the Lions’ own game sealing touchdown. However, the Colts are coming off a bye and this has the potential to turn into one of the more interesting games of the week, but with the Lions consistently underwhelming under Matt Patricia they didn’t quite make the cut for a highlight game.
  • A big divisional game like the Vikings taking on the Packers should be a highlight of any week, but with the Vikings making moves for the long term and the Packers bouncing back after their tough loss to the Buccaneers it feels like this game is only going one way. That is a little dangerous as anything can happen in the NFL, particularly with divisional games, but it is hard to see any other result than a big win for the Packers in this season’s iteration of these two teams.
  • Somehow the consensus line for the Jets’ visit to the Chiefs is even higher than the -19.5 points we are picking on, but I do have a slight hesitation as the Jets did cover for me last week against the Bills. However, there is a world of difference between playing a divisional rival at home and travelling to take on the Chiefs, even if the legendarily noisy Chiefs’ crowd won’t be there. I did think about picking the Jets but I just can’t do it with the Chiefs ranked best in the league on offence by DVOA.

Patriots @ Bills (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Titans @ Bengals (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Raiders @ Browns (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Colts @ Lions (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Vikings @ Packers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Jets @ Chiefs (-19.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Rams @ Dolphins (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Steelers @ Ravens (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Late Games:

There are two great matchups in the late games and one intriguing matchup so let’s start with what I think will be the most competitive.

The San Francisco 49ers have remained competitive in a fearsome NFC West division despite their extensive injury list and having beaten the Patriots convincingly in week seven must now travel to take on the Seattle Seahawks. It is a testament to the coaching job that Kyle Shanahan and his staff have done that the 49ers are ranked eighth overall by DVOA (one place higher than the Seahawks) despite their injury list and are around top ten in all three phases of the game. The Seahawks meanwhile are relying on their offence with Russell Wilson playing as well as he ever has but the defense, and in particular the Seahawks pass defense is struggling and this makes for an intriguing matchup. This is definitely one of the games to watch this week, but I don’t have a strong hunch for it and I am making a play based on getting an extra half point.

The Chicago Bears get a real test this week as they put their 5-2 record and top ten defense to the test against a 4-2 Saints who are still a good team despite them not living up to the expectations we had coming into the season. The Bears really don’t convince on offence and the consensus line being the Bears getting four I am going to pick the Saints, but I think this could be a sneaky interesting game, particularly when the Saints have the ball.

The other late game sees the LA Chargers visit the 2-4 Denver Broncos with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert coming of his first career win and the Broncos have been beaten heavily by the Chiefs in week seven. The Broncos were hoping they had found their quarterback of the future in Drew Lock but injuries have muddied the water on how good he can be. The Chargers only need a field goal to cover this line and with the consensus number being on the other side of three points I will back the Chargers, but I could see the Broncos springing a surprise.

Chargers @ Broncos (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Saints @ Bears (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

49ers @ Seahawks (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Sunday Night Football:

Cowboys @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Sunday night game must have looked so good for the schedule makers before the season, but with the Cowboys season in disarray already this feels like a very one-sided affair. The Cowboy are starting their third different quarterback in seventh round rookie Ben DiNucci who is going to have an incredibly tough time given how injured the Cowboy’s offensive line is and straight bad their defense is. The Eagles only have a 2-4-1 record compared to the Cowboys’ 2-5 record but feel like they are in a very different place even if they have their own long list of injuries. The line would give me pause except that the consensus line I am seeing sees the Eagles giving eleven points to the Cowboys so under a touchdown seems a comparative bargain. In another world I might still take the points, but with the Cowboys shipping out or cutting underperforming members of their defense and starting a seventh round rookie quarterback I simply can’t pick them.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Monday Night Football

Buccaneers @ Giants (+10.5)

The last game of the week is another one-sided contest that sees the surging Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the struggling New York Giants. There have been some encouraging moments for the Giants in their last three games but these have all come across fellow NFC East team. Taking on the Buccaneers is a very different prospect and even though this is a big line, I am seeing a higher consensus so whilst I am slightly nervous about this play, I am going to back the Buccaneers and their fearsome defense as Tom Brady continues to find his way with the Bucs offence.

Gee’s Pick:       Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Eight

29 Thursday Oct 2020

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Well, week seven was pretty good to me as I picked up three points on Dan so I achieve my next target of getting his lead down to single digits so now I need to get within a couple of points and we’ll have a proper competition. There’s plenty of time left so let’s get to work on week eight’s competition Thursday.

Gee:Week 7:  7 – 7Overall:  49 – 57
Dan:Week 7:  4 –10Overall:  56 – 50

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

This is an odd game to pick as both teams are coming off a loss, but the Atlanta Falcons only have one win this season and the Panthers have now established themselves as a competitive franchise despite the rebuild on defence and the number of veterans who left or retired in the off-season. The consensus lines and numbers are suggesting I take the Falcons and they did run the Lions close in week seven, but right now I have a lot more faith in the Panthers and as they are ranked eight places better than the Falcons by DVOA and are at home on a Thursday night I am going to go for the Panthers as they only have to win by a field goal to cover this line. I am aware that my old maxim of always back the home team on a Thursday night unless there was a really good reason to didn’t hold up, but I have a lot more faith in the coaching of the Panthers so that is where I am putting my faith.

Gee’s Pick:     Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Panthers

Survivor Competition

We held serve last week with the strategy of picking against the Jets maintaining a 100% record, and there is little to suggest that will change this week with them taking on the Chiefs, but having lost with the Chiefs against the Raiders earlier this season I have to look. somewhere else in week eight. Looking at the matchups and the teams I have left I think my best option is to select the Packers hosting the Vikings and just hope I don’t’ get any divisional weirdness. Dan has gone in a different direction grabbing the Buccaneers visiting the Giants, which certainly makes sense as a pick.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 5

Week 8 Selection:

Gee:    Packers
Dan:    Buccaneers

Bold Prediction of the Week

So Dan allowed both of my bold predictions on the podcast this week  in a triumph of doing some preparation ahead of recording, but also ensuring I have to keep doing something I fundamentally disagree with.

My first prediction was the Tua Tagovailoa will have more passing yards against the Rams than fellow rookie quarterback Justin Herbert will against the Broncos.

Secondly, the Bills will score more points this week against the Patriots than they did against the Jets in week seven.

Week Eight Picks

27 Sunday Oct 2019

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So it’s the day of my trip to Wembley, but I just have time (I hope) to get up my picks for week eight and have a stab at the trivia question.

‘What is Browns’ coach Paul Brown credited with inventing?’

Now, as a Bengals fan, who were the second NFL team founded by Paul Brown, I’m aware of a few innovations that Paul Brown was responsible for including team building with being the first coach to use timed forty yard dashes, the first communication to a player’s helmets, but I think what 3D is after with an in invention with the Browns is the creation of the draw play.

As for the theme, we’re still floating round early NFL, but I’ve already tried TWF teams, pre-merger, and the centenary year – I’m blanking on a new one and I am sure I’m going to kick myself when one of us eventually get it right or we get put out of our misery. It might well be the latter at our current rate.

‘I’m thrown by the word ‘Invented’ in this question, and the fact that he’s specifically said that it’s a question about the Browns. My first instinct is to say ‘the Cincinnati Bengals’ as I think he founded them but again, the word ‘invent’ doesn’t really apply. But that’s pretty much all I know about the fella so it’s going to be a guess… Did he invent shoulder pads or something like that? I’ll go with that.

Only possible idea at the minute for theme is first round draft picks, so I’ll go for that too.’

Seahawks @ Falcons (+4.5)

The Seattle Seahawks will be looking to bounce back from last week’s loss to the Ravens and this is the perfect spot to do it as the Falcons were struggling before Matt Ryan got injured and so with Ryan sitting out this game and the Falcons having the league’s twenty-ninth ranked defence by DVOA – I am going to pick the Seahawks in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Eagles @ Bills (-1.5)

I am a little confused by this line as the Philadelphia Eagles lost badly last week to the Cowboys, are on the road in Buffalo to face a Bills team who have only lost one game so far this season. Now to be fair, the Eagles do actually rate as the better team by DVOA even after their loss to the Cowboys dropped them from eighth to fifteenth, whilst the Bills rank twenty-first, but I fancy the Bills to edge this one out given the Eagles injuries.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Chargers @ Bears (-4.5)

This is a tough game to call because the Chargers are really struggling with injuries and had to find whole new ways to lose a close game to the Titans last week. They take on a Bears’ team who are struggling due to the apparent failure of Mitch Trubisky to develop, although they are 3-3 so it’s not a disaster. The Bears are only 6.4% better by DVOA and I’m not sure they should be giving away this many points so I’m going to grab them, but I don’t exactly feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Chargers
Dan’s Pick:        Bears

Bengals @ Rams (-12.5)

So I will be at this game, which is still an exciting thing to say even if the Bengals have been anything but competitive this season. They face an LA Rams team who are struggling but not out of the playoff race at 4-3 and are coming off a twenty-seven point win against the struggling Falcons. The Bengals may be 0-7, but only two of their losses have been by thirteen points or more, so whilst my concern is that Zac Taylor runs the same scheme as the Rams and was on their staff last year plus defensive coordinator Wade Philips is a better coach than anyone on the Bengals staff, I’m going to pick the Bengals to keep it within thirteen. I really hope it is more competitive than that!

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Broncos @ Colts (-6.5)

I am not sure if I underestimated the Colts as a whole or merely overestimated how injured they were and how good the Texans are, but the Colts got the win to stay atop the AFC South last week. The Texans host a rested Denver Broncos team who having looked like they were pulling things together for a couple of weeks got thumped last Thursday by a Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs. This is a big line though, and only one of the Colts’ wins has been by seven points or more. I’m hesitant to do it, and the lines suggest I should go for the Broncos but after last week’s performances I can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Broncos

Giants @ Lions (-6.5)

Oh, how I hate this line! I am perfectly comfortable saying the Lions are a better team than the Giants, but they have now lost three games straight and so are not exactly trustworthy. That said the Giants are on their own three game losing streak after the two game bump that starting Daniel Jones created and the Giants lost to the Cardinals last week. This feels like too many points and I want to run away from this game, but as I have to make a pick I’m going to hold my nose and grab the team whose quarterback was the fastest to forty thousand yards and who are 14.5% better by DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Buccaneers @ Titans (-2.5)

This is another game that I really don’t know what to do with as the Tennessee Titans got themselves a win against the Chargers last week and looked a bit better with Ryan Tannehill running their offence. However, I don’t have strong feeling for them and they welcome a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who are coming off a bye week following their awful performance in London. That said, given the number of times that Jameis Winston gave the ball way, an eleven point loss to the Panthers was not that bad. I really want to stay away from this game as well, but in this one I’m going to grab the Titans at home and hope that the 15.2% difference the other way by DVOA doesn’t make me look stupid,

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Cardinals @ Saints (-9.5)

This is a big line, but the New Orleans Saints continue to play well with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and have a top ten defence by DVOA. The welcome an Arizona Cardinals team who have actually won their last three games but the Saints are a very different proposition to the Bengals, Falcons or Giants and given that I have seen this line as high as -12.5 I think -9.5 is good value.

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Jets @ Jaguars (-5.5)

The New York Jets got embarrassed on Monday night, their offence getting shut out in a 33-0 loss to the Patriots. This week they travel to face a Jacksonville Jaguars who got back on track last week thanks to facing the Bengals, but I’m not sure how good they actually are. That said, I do think they are better than the Jets who have only been competitive in two games this season and so I’m going to reluctantly back the Jaguars.

Gee’s Pick:        Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Panthers @ 49ers (-5.5)

This is one of the matchups of the week in my eyes as it sees the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers host the 4-2 Panthers who haven’t looked back since they sat Cam Newton to get him healthy. However, it’s not the play of backup quarterback Kyle Allen that is driving this record but the Panthers defence and Christian McCaffery’s astonishing offensive production. As good as the 49ers have been, and they added Emmanuel Sanders by trade this week, I think this line is too high in what I think will be a very competitive game so I’m grabbing the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        49ers

Browns @ Patriots (-12.5)

What do I do with the Cleveland Browns? They have the potential to cover this line and are coming off a bye but only their win against the Ravens looks like a quality result and there are a whopping sixty-nine point one percentage points between them and the Patriots by DVOA. The Patriots have been great against the spread this year despite it frequently being this high. I hate to do it, but I’m going to back the unbeaten Patriots who have only failed to win by thirteen points or more once this season.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Raiders @ Texans (-6.5)

This is tricky game to pick as the Oakland Raiders have been competitive for a lot of the year and won as many games as they have lost. This week they travel to face the Houston Texans, who looked to have found something but lost receiver Will Fuller last week to a hamstring injury and he was doing a great job of balancing the Texans’ passing attack. I do think the Texans are the better team but there’s not that much difference between them by DVOA so I think this line is a little high. I’m going to grab the points and hope…

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Packers @ Chiefs (+4.5)

This is a really tricky game to pick as the Kansas City Chiefs are obviously going to miss Patrick Mahomes, but their defence played much better than it had all season last week and they are coming off extra rest having won their Thursday night game against the Broncos. They welcome a Green Bay Packers team who have only lost once this season and last week put up an offensive performance to match the defence that has been playing well all season. Given the problems the Broncos have had this season I’m not ready to say the Chiefs’ defence is fixed, and although this could be recency bias as I have watched the coaching tape of the Packers offence from last week – I’m going with the Packers in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Dolphins @ Steelers (-14.5)

At the start of the season the Miami Dolphins were losing badly enough that teams were covering some ridiculous spreads against them, but having put Ryan Fitzopatrick back in the game against Washington the previous week, the Dolphins started him against the Bills last week and so covered the spread for a second week in a row. The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a bye and so look likely to get Mason Rudolph back from his concussion this week, but let’s be honest, the Steelers have not looked good this season. Their wins have come against the Bengals and Chargers and only against the Bengals have they managed to win by a margin to cover a line this big so whilst I expect the Dolphins to continue their spotless tanking record – this line is too much for me given the Steelers’ play this season.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Eight

24 Thursday Oct 2019

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A poor week from me saw Dan and his dad close the gap to me, but I still have an overall winning percentage as we go in to week eight.

Gee: Week 7:   6-8 Overall:   56-50
Dan’s Dad: Week 7:   10-4 Overall:   53-53
Dan: Week 7:   9-5 Overall:   53-53

Washington @ Vikings (-15.5)

This doesn’t look like a competitive Thursday night game, but we have had surprises before. However, Washington are 1-6 for a reason and won’t have the weather helping them this week as they travel to the dome of the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are one of the few NFL teams who still seem to have a home advantage and are playing well at the moment, so I expect them to win, but this is a very big line.

Now, at the risk of making things overly complicated, I am seeing this line as high as -16.5 so this is a comparatively good number, although it is still over two touchdowns. My first instinct is this line is too big, but my first instinct has sucked on a Thursday so I’m going all in on the Vikings in Kirk Cousins’s revenge game. I just hope that 3D forgives me.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Week 8 Trivia

‘It’s Week 7 and the season for me has not yet arrived at a pattern with unpredictability being the only constant in this Curate’s Egg of a year. Normally we would have a gut feel about where the season is heading by now, but I don’t think that is yet clear.

In fairness there are a couple of teams showing great consistency but for all the wrong reasons so I will not intrude on anyone’s feelings. For me the rise of the Vikings, quietly staying in contention is a very competitive division makes for very pleasing reading. However, the season’s inconsistency shows we should take nothing for granted until it is certain – the biggest danger for any team is its next fixture. Don’t forget that just a few weeks ago there was an anger and desperation in Vikings hearts but that has now evaporated, for now. Let’s hope that Kwik-Fit can keep the wheels on.

So, have the wheels come off in the Trivia competition?

I asked who it was that Carson Palmer achieved his first win. Once again Gee’s logic was good, but his luck wasn’t by guessing The Browns. Dan also went Browns and again I could see why. The answer, I’ve been looking out questions where they both have a chance, was The Dolphins and that leaves both tied on 6 points as once again the Theme has remained elusive.

This week I have what should be an easy 2 points each with this question on the Cleveland Browns.

What is Browns coach Paul Brown credited with inventing?

Its over to you’

2018 Week Eight Picks

28 Sunday Oct 2018

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Okay, so week eight didn’t exactly start with the turnaround I was looking for but thanks to family weekend things suddenly I’m facing a time crunch so let’s see if skipping quickly through the games gives me better luck, but before that there’s the minor matter of our now tied trivia competition.

‘Who is the Head Coach with Most Career Wins?’

Now there’s a couple of thoughts I had about this. I don’t think the answer is anyone currently coaching or I’d know about it (I also think the commentators would be mentioning it most weeks) so then you start getting into the big historical coaches but this is as much about length of service as quality so say Curly Lambeau rather than Vince Lombardi and the more I think about the more I’m sure that Dan has an advantage here because I think it is someone who coached the Dolphins for a long long time. I’m going for Don Shula who racked up something like, say three hundred and twenty wins.

‘This is the first time I’ve felt really confident about the answer of a trivia question this year! The ‘Winningest’ head coach is the legendary Mr. Don Shula. I think his final win total was somewhere around 350 games, so I’ll go with 350!’

Eagles @ Jaguars (+2.5)

So this week’s London game pits two teams coming off a loss against each other, and this has me worried because Blake Bortles has played very well in London in recent years, which is something he has not done in a while. However, there is something just not right with the Jaguars at the moment so London is a chance to get back to winning or implode against the Super Bowl champions. I really hate this line but in the end I just can’t trust the team who’ve lost four of the last five games.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Jets @ Bears (-6.5)

I don’t entirely trust the DVOA ranking of the Bears as they seem somewhat high but I do think they are much better than the Jets and whilst the Jets might have the better quarterback over the next couple of years, with the offensive scheme of the Bears I’m backing the more talented roster to win out.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Buccaneers @ Bengals (-4.5)

Gah, I do not like this line and I can totally see this going wrong but this is too important a game for the Bengals, and at home I have to try to trust them. The emotional hedges have not exactly cushioned the blow of the recent losses so with all the talk of a reaction and tackling I’m hoping the Bengals turn it round this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Browns @ Steelers (-8.5)

The Browns have played so many overtime games this year and have only got blown out once, but that was against the Chargers and the Steelers certainly have the offensive fire power to do the same and are coming off a bye. I’m tempted by the Steelers but this feels like too many points to me.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Broncos @ Chiefs (-10.5)

Going into Arrowhead Stadium is difficult at the best of times, but with the way the Chiefs are playing at the moment it is downright terrifying. The Broncos may be coming off a hugely convincing road win but it was over the Cardinals and this is a very different task. The points are kind of worrying but I fancy the Chiefs to steam roller almost any team at home the way they are playing at the moment.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Seahawks @ Lions (-2.5)

The Lions seem to have found a formula on offense through running the ball and have settled down under Matt Patricia after a rocky start but they welcome a Seahawks team who have also rounded into some form. Having won convincingly in London two weeks ago the Seahawks face a sterner test on the road and I just fancy the Lions offence to win out in this and will be a sterner test than the Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Washington @ Giants (+0.5)

The Giants have started trading players away from their twenty-eighth ranked defence whilst the offence continues to misfire. I’m never sure what to expect out of Washington but I think they are the better team and whilst strange things can happen in divisional matchups, I’m not going to pick it to happen.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Ravens @ Panthers (+1.5)

This should be a cracking game. The Panthers were behind for nearly all of their game against the Eagles last week but Cam Newton found a way to lead three straight scoring drives in the fourth quarter turn a terrible start into a win. They welcome a Ravens team who have been really competitive this season but have still lost three games, although it took Just Tucker’s first ever missed extra point at any level for the Saints to get a win. However, getting points at home I’m going to take the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Colts @ Raiders (+2.5)

In the cold light of day the Oakland Raiders’ trade of Amari Cooper looks like a good deal for the team, but it does nothing to help in the short term and facing the Colts who are heading in the right direction and coming off a big win I expect both teams to continue their streak.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Packers @ Rams (-9.5)

Gah, the Rams look so good at the moment and are finally home after three road games and clearly they are respected because this is the largest ever line against Aaron Rodgers. The Packers will hope their bye week will have worked wonders for Rodgers’ knee and whilst I expect Rams to win, I just can’t hand this many points to Aaron Rodgers.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

49ers @ Cardinals (-0.5)

The Cardinals were so bad against the Broncos last week, and whilst there should be some reaction, the noises surrounding Patrick Peterson won’t help and so whilst the 49ers are not exactly flying this season, they have managed to be competitive and I fancy them to run out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Saints @ Vikings (-0.5)

The re-run of last season’s divisional game sees the Saints return to the US Bank Stadium and the scene of Stefon Diggs ridiculous game winning catch. The Vikings are a different team this season and although neither side of the ball are top ten in the league by DVOA like last year, the defence in particular has struggled but at least they have put a string of three wins together. In what should be a cracking game I’m going to back the team with the top five offence even if the Vikings have been playing better of late and could have Everson Griffen back.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Patriots @ Bills (+14.5)

There’s a reason this line is so big, the Bills who have been bad all season got blown out by the Colts last week with Derek Anderson throwing three interceptions and fumbling the ball. The Patriots turned round their offence with the return of Julian Edelman and the addition of Josh Gordon a few weeks ago and look like they should run out comfortable winners. In the last three years the Bills have only won one game (in week four and the Patriots are notorious slow starters) and in the last three ganes the Patriots have won by at least sixteen so whilst this line is high, I’m going to swing big with the Patriots

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Eight

25 Thursday Oct 2018

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We go into week eight with all three of us on fifty-one points in the picks competition so plenty to play for.

Gee:    Week 7   5-9               Overall   51-56
Dan:    Week 7   6-8               Overall   51-56

Dolphins @ Texans (-7.5)

This week’s Thursday night game is a curious one that pits the Miami Dolphins’ two game losing streak against the Houston Texans’ three game winning streak. This is a bad spot for a Dolphins team who are pretty beat up even before they are on the road on a Thursday night. Their offence and defence sits just above middle ranks by DVOA and Brock Osweiler’s numbers, whilst not bad in his second start at quarterback, were not good enough to compensate for a defence that let Lions’ Kerryon Johnson ran for one hundred and fifty-eight yards on only nineteen carries.

The Texans’ offence has been very up and down but their defence is top five in the league by DVOA and whilst their pass defence has not been good, they are eighth in points allowed per game. I see nothing in this game that persuades me from my usual maxim for Thursday night other than the size of this line, which the Texans have only exceeded once this season against the Jaguars and so that does make me look hard. I keep changing my mind on this as I’m really worried about the spot the Dolphins are in but in the end this is just too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Week 8 Trivia

‘As week 7 closes we find ourselves in ties wherever we turn. The Pick ‘Em sees all 3 of us with 51 points but the Trivia Quiz also has both Gee and Dan level on 3 each.

This week’s question was how many stadia had grass pitches and while the responses did have some logic behind them, Gee managed to pick up a single point even though his 21 was high – the answer being 19 with 12 being synthetic.

Don’t worry it confused Joe Namath too, when asked if he preferred grass or ‘astro’ he said he’d never smoked astroturf.

Moving swiftly on this week’s question is: Who is the Head Coach with Most Career Wins? I’ll add a bonus for anyone able to get closest to the exact number.

Keep moving those chains.’

Week Eight Picks

29 Sunday Oct 2017

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I could not have been much more wrong about the Thursday night game, which both proves that we know nothing about this season and that picking this week’s game is going to be no fun at all but here we go anyway.

Vikings @ Browns (+9.5)

This is the final of the London games this season, and once again I’m not sure what affect the travel will have on these teams as the Minnesota Vikings have gone out early and the Cleveland Browns didn’t leave until Friday. The Vikings have a really good defence and are doing enough on offence that they lead their division, whilst the Browns are searching for their first win of the season. I really don’t like what head coach Hue Jackson is doing with his quarterbacks at the moment, and whilst you can’t rule out a surprise – especially when both teams are on the road – it is hard to see anything other than a win for the Vikings. Can the Browns stay within ten points? I’m not sure, but with a struggling team on the road, and players complaining about the trip I feel like it’s more likely the Vikings win big than anything else.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Falcons @ Jets (+4.5)

The Atlanta Falcons travel to face the New York Jets this week and if we’ve learnt anything this season it is that the Falcons are not as dynamic on offence and the Jets are a much tougher opposition that anyone was thinking before the season started. It’s not that I’m super confident in how this game is going to go, but if you’re going to give me four and a half points as a home team in what could be a close game, I’m going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Raiders @ Bills (-2.5)

The Oakand Raiders have struggled except for the two games that I have watched them and are coming off a dramatic win against the Chiefs last week. However, even with a long week they are travelling to face the Buffalo Bills who have been nothing but competitive this season. It may be that Derek Carr looked better last week, but can the Raiders keep the momentum going? In the end I feel like I have more trust in the stability of the Bills so I’ll back them to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Saints (-8.5)

This is a curious game to me as the Chicago Bears asked their rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky to drop back to pass just seven times last week as they ground out a win against the Panthers, and this week they travel to face a New Orleans Saints team who currently rank twenty-ninth in rush defence by DVOA. However, it is hard to see Bears keeping up with the Saints’ third ranked offence by DVOA using such a run dominated game plan and I fancy the Saints to run out winners in this one. Will they cover? The Bears have only lost two games by more than nine points, but I have a feeling this will be the third.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Colts @ Bengals (-10.5)

The Indianapolis Colts have really struggled all season, and are coming off a shutout loss against the Jaguars where they gave up ten sacks. The Cincinnati Bengals managed a half of competitive football last week before their offence stalled again, but facing the Colt’s thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA is a lot different to facing the Steelers. I could be wrong, but I think this should be a game the Bengals can use to get back on track and whilst I’m not confident about anything to do with my team, I think they can and will cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Chargers @ Patriots (-7.5)

The New England Patriots got a good win last week, but I’m not sure where the balance lies between their defence improving and facing the Falcons and the Jets the last two weeks. Still they are at home facing an LA Chargers team who have won three straight and who are coming off a solid win against the Broncos. Their only loss by more than eight points came against the Chiefs in week three, and I just fancy the Chargers to keep this one closer than eight, although I see the Patriots running out winners in the end.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

49ers @ Eagles (-12.5)

This is a hard game for me to pick as the San Francisco 49ers had kept all of their games close until last week when they were steam rollered by the Cowboys. This week they travel to face an impressive Philadelphia Eagles team with the best record in the league, but the Eagles did pick up a couple of injuries last week, with the loss of left tackle Jason Peters really worrying me. I would expect the Eagles to win this one, but this line scares me, yet at home against a team who have not found their way I’m going to nervously back one of the few things I feel relatively confident about in the league.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Panthers @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

I have no real idea what to do with this game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have looked good on offence but their defence is ranked last by DVOA and this week they welcome a Carolina Panthers team who just lost to the Chicago Bears. The Panthers were without Luke Kuechly last week but the Pro Bowl linebacker has cleared concussion protocol and should play this week. In this game I am just going to grab the points and hope that the Panthers can put enough together against the bad Tampa defence.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Texans @ Seahawks (-5.5)

The Seattle Seahawks got a solid win on the road last week against the Giants and look to be coming to the part of the season where they come good, even if their offensive line is still troubling. This week they welcome a Houston Texans team coming off a bye and in turmoil. The comments of their owner at last week’s league meeting have caused real anger in the team and led to a ninety minute air your feelings meeting on Friday. It is possible that the Texans are going to stage a protest on Sunday, and in a notoriously difficult place to play I will back the Seahawks to be the more focussed team and cover the line.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Cowboys @ Washington (+2.5)

The Dallas Cowboys got a solid win but travel to Washington this week in a divisional game that both teams desperately need to keep in contact with the Eagles who are already three games up on both teams. Washington rate a little better by DVOA but neither team are exactly inspiring confidence at the moment. This is a game where I’m going to grab the points for the home team and hope, I could be very wrong as Ezekiel Elliot did look good last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Steelers @ Lions (+3.5)

The Detroit Lions are coming off a bye week having lost a strange game where their defence didn’t look that bad whilst giving up fifty-two points against the Saints the week before. However, this week they face a Pittsburgh Steelers who seem to have found their identity on offence whilst their defence is ranked second by DVOA and overall they are the best team according to DVOA. The Lions may be at home, but in this one I fancy the Steelers to continue their good run.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Broncos @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Denver Broncos just got shut out by the LA Chargers and this week travel to face a Kansas City Chiefs team who have lost two straight for the first time since 2015. The Broncos offence has been struggling and Arrowhead stadium is not the kind of place to rediscover your form. The Chiefs offence has struggled a little bit against zone defence in the last two weeks and it is hard to know if the Chiefs can find their explosive early season form again but a healthier receiving group will help. The Broncos’ defence is still very good and as a divisional game it feels like this should be a close game, but having lost badly to the Giants and the Chargers I can’t quite bring myself pick the Broncos covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

The Way Forward

26 Thursday Oct 2017

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It was a frustrating weekend for me as a Bengals fan, with a competitive game in the first half dwindling into failure as the Bengals offence stalled once again. We are still in the first half of the season but the 2-4 record feels very different to the 3-3 that was possible with a win. On its own it was not a particularly bad loss, the Bengals were playing one of the best teams in the AFC rounding into form and playing at home, but the frustration of a division loss seemed to signal the final death knell for any hope of a turnaround. That’s not to say that the Bengals can’t salvage something for themselves, but it feels like this cycle is done and although there are young developing players, particularly on defence, the offence continues to need work and I don’t see how things turn round this season. The offensive line just wasn’t good enough at the weekend, and whilst bad offensive lines are becoming more common in the NFL, the Bengals do not have a quarterback in Andy Dalton who can overcome this.

I am mindful of the change that Marvin Lewis has been responsible for over his tenure, and how the Bengals are no longer a laughing stock but it may be time for a fresh approach. Although a change doesn’t necessarily guarantee success and there is no shortage of teams struggling this season.

Still we are rapidly approaching the half way mark in the season and yet there seems to be a lot of teams for which we still have questions, two of which play tonight.

Gee:      Week 7   7-8                       Overall   60-47
Dan:       Week 7   11-4                     Overall   53-54

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5)

The quality of the Thursday night games have been better this season, with last week’s game being something of a cracker, but in this one we see one team with a backup quarterback visiting a team who may have their starter, but that starter looks like a shell of the QB who led the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl win.

The Ravens have a huge injury list so their record may be understandable, but right now they are struggling and whilst the Miami Dolphins have not looked good doing it, they are on a three game win streak. We get to see how Matt Moore will do on a short week, but this line is just that bit too much for me to back the Ravens to cover. This could be a big mistake on a Thursday night game, but I am going to back the road team to at least be within four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Week Eight Picks

29 Saturday Oct 2016

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I’m working on this and putting it up early as I am off to Wembley tomorrow.

I shouldn’t be panicking too much as I only hit 45 points a week earlier last year, but I have been under .500 for most of the season and it is beginning to bug me, even if Dan has only pulled back level with me this week.

Gee:      Week 7   4-11                     Overall   45-62
Dan:      Week 7   5-10                     Overall   45-62

Washington @ Bengals (-2.5)

Washington are following up their road loss in Detroit by flying to London to play the Cincinnati Bengals as the road team. They look to have solidified the after their poor start to the season, but are facing the Bengals coming off their first thirty point game of the season having beaten the Cleveland Browns. We will have to see if Josh Norman or Jordan Reed will play given their recent concussion issues, but I’m picking in hope of witnessing a win tomorrow, even if it would be a very Bengals thing to lose the first game that I can actually get to see them play in person.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengal  s
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Patriots @ Bills (+6.5)

The hamstring injury to LeSean McCoy is a big worry for the Bills, as will have been giving up over two hundred yards on the ground to the Miami Dolphins on the other side of the ball. They may be back in Buffalo, but I find it hard to look past a New England Patriots team that will be looking to avoid a season white wash against the Bills.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Jets @ Browns (+3.5)

The New York Jets might have got an unexpected win last week, but they are only 0.4% better by overall DVOA than the Browns, and are on the road in Cleveland. I could really regret this, but the Browns don’t look to be a zero win team and this game is as good a chance for them to get a win as they are likely to get, and I think getting these points I’m going to back them to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Lions @ Texans (-2.5)

The Texans are one of the more Jekyll and Hyde team with a defence that ranks just outside the top ten by DVOA and an offence that is flat last. The Detroit Lions did enough last week to win, and are the inverse of the Texans with a defence flat last in the league by DVOA, and an offence that ranks thirteenth. However, they have distinctly better ranked special teams and a quarterback who is working well with his offensive coordinator and I choose this week to put my faith in that.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Chiefs @ Colts (+2.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs are a better team than the Indianapolis Colts, and have the running backs to trouble the Colts defence even if things haven’t been flashy for the Chiefs on offence this year. It is possible that I am being overly harsh on the Colts, and perhaps I should trust them at home getting points, but I don’t and so I’m picking the Chiefs in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Raiders @ Buccaneers (-0.5)

The Buccaneers may have done better last week, but it was against the 49ers and whilst they will likely have some success against the Raiders poor defence, the Raiders have actually been better on the road than in Oakland. Perhaps the weather in Tampa Bay will cause them problems, but I’m happy to be getting a half point as I think the Raiders are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Seahawks @ Saints (+3.5)

The next couple of games I am picking based on what happen to both the Panthers and the Bengals the last time there was a tie that involved both teams playing an entire quarter of overtime, which was both teams came out very flat and lost. So with the Saints getting three and a half points going against a team whose offence is struggling and unlikely to take advantage of the Saints poor defence, I’m backing the Saints to cover at home with them getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Cardinals @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers are coming off a bye and desperately need to get their season going, even if it may already be too late. The real weakness of their defence has been the secondary, but whilst the Cardinals may have found a winning formula, David Johnson carried the ball a lot last week against the Seahawks and Carson Palmer has not looked himself this season and so again with the Cardinals having played five quarters of football last week, I’m backing the Panthers to win a game they really can’t afford to lose.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Chargers @ Broncos (-5.5)

The Denver Broncos got back on track with healthy win over the Houston Texans last week, and had a much better balance of run to pass plays. However, whilst the San Diego Chargers have a worse record right now, they are very possibly a better team than the Texans and certainly a DVOA ranking of eleven would point that way. I like them to come into Denver and at least keep it closer than six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Packers @ Falcons (-2.5)

The Packers got the win against the Bears at home in Green Bay last week despite their injury problems at running back, but they are not exactly back to their fluent best. The Atlanta Falcons lost in overtime to the San Diego Chargers, but their offence was playing at a higher level than the Packers before they developed problems of their own at running back. This should be a good game, but I’m backing the Falcons at home to pick up the win, even if I don’t feel that confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Eagles @ Cowboys (-4.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles got a great win against the Vikings last week, but their defence is going up against a very different proposition in the Dallas Cowboys offensive line. The Cowboys have built momentum and I think they will carry it through against a team who have been a little up and down. I could be underestimating the Eagles, and certainly Dan’s pick would indicate that I am, but I’m sticking by my instinct in this one despite being off so often this year.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Vikings @ Bears (+6.5)

The Chicago Bears have got Jay Cutler coming back after Brian Hoyer broke his arm last week, but how much of a bump that will be I don’t know, and I think it is more likely that the Vikings will bounce back. There were signs of a pass rush from the Bears last week so the Vikings problems on the offensive line do worry me a little, but I trust Mike Zimmer and his staff to get things back on track and so I’m backing the Vikings to cover this line. I just hope my change in pick doesn’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Does the NFL Have a Problem?

27 Thursday Oct 2016

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It seems that everyone is writing some variation on what is wrong with the NFL, or questioning whether there are any good teams. The ratings for TV in the States are down, and the quality of the prime time games has been called into question, yet as ever, I think that the situation is more complicated than that.

Certainly there do seem to have been a lot of less than stellar games in the prime time slots, but part of that is due to the lack of flexing games until later in the season, and the very nature of the Thursday games. As it allows me to watch every team, and I get a chance to watch without knowing the score, I watch and write up the Thursday night games and you can frequently see them descend into an easy win for the home team. Playing a game three days early when it takes a week to recover has always caused problems for NFL teams, and it certainly calls into question the NFL’s claim that safety is their prime concern.

However, whilst these games are deliberately chosen to show case every team to the nation, the big prime time Sunday night and Monday night games are meant to be the best of the week’s matchups. The problem with that though, is these fixtures are selected whilst the army of computers that are used to churn out the schedule are working overtime to find the best fit that they can out of the incredibly complex mix of team requirements, TV requirements, the cycle of divisional opponents and various other factors that goes into making the NFL schedule. The difficulty being that when these decisions are being made, nobody knows who the good teams are going to be in the upcoming season. Even a safe looking selection like the New England Patriots visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers can take a turn for the worse when an important player like Ben Roethlisberger picks up and injury that keeps him out of the game.

There has been mention of the NFL having gone up against the presidential debates, but whilst there is a lot of focus on the race, the league have only had games go up directly against two of the three televised debates. So what is going on?

Part of it could well be that the NFL seems to be lacking teams that are definitively good this season. Week seven saw the last undefeated record go, and there are only three teams with a solitary loss. The New England Patriots look as good as anyone now that Tom Brady has come back from his suspension, but their defence seems to lack pass rushing and may be vulnerable to a high powered offence. The Dallas Cowboys have looked good as they have gone 5-1, largely thanks to the performance of two key rookies on offence and a defence that seems to have made a definite step up in play when compared to last season. The only other team to with a solitary loss are the Minnesota Vikings who were the last undefeated team this year, but the injuries to their already suspect offensive line allowed the Philadelphia Eagles to pressure them into a loss. This is a team that has already lost their starting quarterback to a practice injury in the preseason and their leading rusher.

Not team is ever perfect, but it feels like the presence of a major flaw is looming over a lot of teams this season. The Seattle Seahawks are as competitive a team in the league, but their offensive line is not good, and now an injured Russell Wilson is struggling to perform behind it. The Atlanta Falcons have the second ranked offence by DVOA, but their defence is ranked a lowly twenty-sixth and such a disparity makes it hard to look like a super team.

Once again though, there could be more to it. Certainly the games haven’t always been the best spectacle, people want excitement, and when games are being called with so many penalties as they currently are, it is hard to keep people engaged. My only personal frustration is the five yard illegal contact that seems to get called the moment a corner back breathes on a receiver, along with an unnecessarily generous automatic first down. If you are going to call a penalty that often, it shouldn’t just come with a first down, and a bit of hand fighting is hardly the biggest problem in the NFL. In fact I’ll try to approach that right now.

There are so many topics to cover and once again I am running out of time so let’s circle round to the biggy, at the centre of so many questions. The league office, and in particular Roger Goodell. There have been many words dedicated to his performance over the last couple of years. For a very on point summary of his handling of the Josh Brown case look no further than Sally Jenkins in the Washington Post (article here) and the really troubling this is that we have been here before and Goodell has not learnt his lessons. So the NFL are stuck with a commissioner who is happy to fine players for daring to twerk in the end zone, but can’t stick to his own policy on domestic abuse and yet again is blaming local law enforcement. The owners are happy to have him as he acts as firewall for criticism aimed at the league, but with dropping ratings, questions about safety and concussions, plus for possibly the first time there is potentially a serious rival league in the NBA who might be able to mount a genuine attempt at replacing football as America’s number one sport, it might be time for them to realise that the NFL is not too big to fail.

It is a long way from that, but they have to address youth football, get out of their own way when it comes to officiating, and find the right balance between player safety and allowing coaches to coach. To look at whether the rosters are too young, what new training tools like the robotic tackling dummies that we saw in this seasons Hard Knocks can give to the game. Football can be a conservative game, but with the challenges it faces, and to ensure its policy, it has to look to the future and embrace it, and that might just mean a forward looking commissioner that inspires confidence.

Of course, in four weeks’ time these stories could all just disappear, but the problems won’t and that should concern owners, players, and fans alike.

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5)

My rule for the Thursday night games going forward is to always pick the home team unless there is a compelling number of points, or an amazingly good team on the road against a poor team. By this formula there is nothing about the Jaguars who seem to have gone backwards this season on offence for me to do anything other than pick the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans