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The Disappointed Eighteen – AFC Edition

07 Thursday Jan 2021

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It is always a strange time of year for NFL fans as the excitement regarding the play-offs is tempered by whether you team is directly involved and how you feel about the state of the franchise you support. There is also the rolling coverage of the teams changing GMs and coaching staff, which is getting a head start this year as the NFL has changed rules allowing teams to start interviews earlier under certain conditions.

Still the countdown of disappointed teams has well and truly begun where the number will eventually reach thirty-one, but for now let’s have a look at the disappointed eighteen who didn’t make the play-offs.

In an effort to make life easier for myself I will split these run downs by conference and so we start with the AFC and I’ll work in ascending number of wins and descending draft order.

I am taking my cap numbers for next season from spotrac.com and the ranking/numbers were right at time of posting with an assumed team salary cap of $175 million.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)

The Jaguars set a franchise record for losing this season with their solitary win in the opening week being the lowest total ever. They were already committed to making changes having fired GM Dave Caldwell when they fell to 1-10 for the season and head coach Doug Marrone followed once the regular season was completed. The good news for whoever takes control of this franchise is that they both have the number one pick in the draft and are projected to have the most cap space available in 2021. There is no shortage of things that need addressing given the only phase of the game the Jaguars were near average in was special teams, but with their choice of quarterbacks in the draft and money to make sensible signings the Jaguars could make a swift return to contention. The Jaguars were nothing if not patient with Caldwell so this could well be one of the most promising teams to join for both GM and head coaches this off-season, but all the fans will care about is someone finally establishing a franchise identity and building a team who can win regularly as the Jags have had one winning season in the last thirteen and only three of those seasons did they avoid a double-digit amount of games. There is a lot of work left to do in Jacksonville if they want to get back to the play-offs.

New York Jets (2-14)

The byword for incompetence for much of the NFL 2020 season, the Jets are such bad losers than in the race for the number one draft pick they came second. Having fired defensive coordinator Gregg Williams (who we should remember was pushed onto their head coach as a condition of him being appointed) in December when an all-out blitz cost them a win against the Raiders, it surprised literally no one who follows the NFL that Adam Gase was fired shortly after the Jets lost against the Patriots to finish a painful season. There was really no-one left for Gase to blame, particularly as within six months of him being hired as head coach, he had forced out GM Mike Maccagnan who hired him only to be fired 18 months later by Maccagnan’s successor Joe Douglas. In his two years with the Jets Gase failed to spark the offence or improve young quarterback Sam Darnold who might still have a career in the NFL but looks like he will be moving to a new franchise for his fourth season given that the Jets are still well placed to take a quarterback high in the draft. The Jets stand behind only the Jaguars for cap space in 2012 and so could also be well placed for recovery, but much like the Jaguars, with little recent history of success on the field the Jets need to build a new culture and get the front office working in lock step with whoever the new coach is to turn things around.

Houston Texans (4-12)

The Texans only managed four wins this season despite having a franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson who threw for 4823 yards and thirty-three touchdowns to seven interceptions, all having lost his favourite receiver DeAndre Hopkins in a bad trade with the Arizona Cardinals. The decisions made by Bill O’Brien as the GM used up future resources to manage the franchise and having amassed so much power, when the season started with four consecutive losses there was no one else to blame and O’Brien was fired. To be fair, it was a tough open to the season with visits to the Chiefs and Steelers sandwiching their game against the Ravens, but when they lost to a then 0-3 Vikings team the decision was made to fire O’Brien. In recent weeks we have had pretty strong statements of discontent from both JJ Watt and Watson, but having been blocked from talking to Patriots’ director of personnel Nick Caserio in 2019, the Texans have an agreement in place to hire him as their new GM. He will join the extensive search committee to find a new head coach as they seek to turn round a team that was plain bad on defence, but with several picks traded away by O’Brien including this year’s third overall pick to the Dolphins this likely not a quick fix. Apart from the draft capital, the Texans are projected to be twenty-sixth in the league for cap space in 2021 with them twenty million dollars over the projected cap so there is going to be at least a year of pain as they work their way back from that. If they hope to compete with the Colts and Titans any time soon they will need to lay a solid foundation this off-season but it will not be easy.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)

Zac Taylor’s doubling of the Bengals win total in his second season, including his first road win, was apparently enough to secure him a third season as head coach but I have to think that another failure to develop the offence to a rank higher than late twenties by DVOA won’t be enough to a fourth. The failure on offence is partly down to the loss of rookie quarterback Joe Burrow to injury, but he was covering up a multitude of sins on the offensive line, which eventually led to him being hit enough that he was lost for the season. This rests on the should of Taylor and his coaching staff and the one top ten phase of the game the Bengals had this season was special teams, and Taylor inherited Darrin Simmons from Marvin Lewis’ staff having been a fixture in Cincinnati since 2003. Certainly the defence really wasn’t much better than the offence despite defensive end Carl Lawson and safety Jessie Bates being right up there with any other players at their position. To be fair, the reports from the locker room have been supportive and there are other young players who look promising, but we are relying on development in areas in the third year that don’t seem to have progress in the first two. The Bengals have a conservative draft and develop programme historically, although they splashed some cash last off-season but saw most of those acquisitions injured. There are no problems with cap space, the Bengals have the sixth most free in 2021 and usually draft well, but I find it hard to see the next big step forward with things remaining the same. I hope to be proved wrong and this could be a more traditional re-build, but Marvin Lewis turned round a franchise in his time, even if he couldn’t get a play-off win, but the Bengals seem to have returned to their poor pre-Lewis ways since his leaving and with five losing seasons since the often-mentioned (if only by me) 2015 team that looked so promising, the Bengals feel like a franchise who have lost their way. I really hope they find it next year, but I have to be honest, I have my doubts…

Denver Broncos (5-11)

I feel like the Denver Broncos slipped under my radar a little this season. They managed to win five games with an offence that ranked thirtieth out of thirty-two teams by DVOA with quarterback Drew Lock missing three of their games but not exactly convincing in the other thirteen. However, whilst it was always going to be tough for them on defence when they lost veteran pass rusher Von Miller for the season before it had even started, a ranking of thirteenth by DVOA is at least respectable. The worry must be that the Broncos have not been to the play-offs since they won Super Bowl fifty and GM John Elway, despite being a Broncos legend, has not been able to find a franchise quarterback to follow Peyton Manning. Elway does seem to be recognising problems and is planning to step away from the day to day running of the franchise with the plan of hiring a GM with full autonomy over player personnel. The Broncos are at least projected to have space under next season’s cap and Lock has only finished his second season so they don’t have any big contract decisions to make this year on that front, but I’m not sure they have their franchise quarterback either and from the quotes that head coach Vic Fangio made about Lock’s potential as a franchise QB and the work Lock still has to do, it would not be a surprise to see someone brought in to challenge or mentor Lock in the QB room next season. I am not sure I am expecting massive changes this off-season, but a new direction seems like a good idea given five seasons of losing and head coach Vic Fangio is likely to need to find success going into his third season if he wants keep his job. Patience is not a virtue often utilised in the NFL, and whilst things can turn around more quickly in the modern NFL, for the Broncos a lot will rest on what they do at GM and how well that hire meshes with Fangio.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)

The LA Chargers finished an almost surprising 7-9 thanks to a strong four-win finish, but that was not enough to save head coach Anthony Lynn’s job. The last two seasons of his four years with the franchise yielded two losing seasons and in his lsat Lynn managed the transition from one franchise quarterback to another, but it was the manner of the losing that would have worried those in charge. I don’t think I have heard such positive views of a head coach as a man, something last year’s Hard Knocks series only served to highlight, coupled with such heavy criticism of in game management and general approach to offence. Lynn’s job with the Chargers was never easy as this is the first season where the Chargers had their own stadium in LA (all be it them renting from the Rams) and Lynn managed the transition to Los Angeles well, but with Justin Herbert looking like the rookie of the year having been thrown into the starting line-up in week two after Tyrod Taylor suffered a collapsed lung after a nerve block procedure went wrong the decision was made to change course. With Herbert looking like a franchise quarterback already, plenty of other talent spread around the rest of the roster, and over $20 million in cap space next season the Chargers should bounce back strongly even if they do share a division with the Chiefs. However, they will need to get their next coaching hire right (spotting a pattern here?) to pull this off. The Chargers of recent years have had a reputation for often losing close games so it might not take that much to turn things round, but we shall just have to see how they choose to go about it.

New England Patriots (7-9)

The Patriots’ season sputtered before it even began as they went into their pre-season with the most Covid-19 opt-outs in the league and when combined with the departure of Tom Brady after twenty seasons with the Pats in the off-season, you could see how they might struggle and struggle they did. The late signing of Cam Newton was a canny move that was a gamble for both parties that didn’t work out for player or team, and whilst the Patriots’ staff were effusive in their praise of Newton’s leadership and effort, he was not able to turn that into success throwing the ball. Yes he was still an effective running quarterback and there are limitations in the Patriots skill positions, but the truth is he simply could not complete enough passes for the team to truly compete. We had the strange situation where Bill Belichick, the ultimate no nonsense pragmatist, has been making excuses about this season was the payoff for the investment they put into maximising their chances with Brady. There are some facts that back up this position, the Pats go into next season with nearly $60 million in cap space but their record in drafts over recent years has not been stellar (which makes the hiring away of Nick Caserio to the Texans interesting) but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Belichick and the staff get it right with more room to manoeuvre. However, they will need to find a solution at quarterback and it seems like that answer is not currently on the roster and their path to getting one is unlikely through the fifteenth pick in the draft. I am not prepared to bet against one of the most successful head coaches in NFL history for long, and while I don’t know whether next season will see a turnaround, you wouldn’t bet against Belichick managing it before too long.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)

The Raiders first season in Las Vegas was rolling towards the play-offs through the first ten weeks of the season, but the last seven weeks only added two more wins to their week ten 6-3 record that fell to 8-8 by the end of the 2020 campaign. I wrote before the season about my concerns regarding the defence and their performance was still problematic and cost Paul Guenther his job as coordinator during the season. There was a marginal improvement to a ranking of twenty-eighth by DVOA but that was not enough for the Raiders to finally achieve a winning record in Jon Gruden’s third season as head coach. When a head coach gets a ten-year contract then they have a certain amount of job security, but there surely has to be some very pointed questions in private this off-season and a lot of pressure on Gruden and GM Mike Mayock to get the coaching hires on the defensive side of the ball right. I don’t know when owner Mark Davis’ patience might run out, but for Gruden to get the Raiders where they want to be he has to be able to serve the whole team going forward and not just the offence. However, the Raiders are currently $17 million over the 2021 salary cap so the roster management could be distinctly tricky this off-season and I have to wonder if Gruden can get this to team to where he wants to next year.

Miami Dolphins (10-6)

Fans of the Dolphins are probably as disappointed as any fanbase this week given that their team won ten games in the first year of the new expanded play-off format and still didn’t make get in. Their wait to make the play-offs has now extended to five seasons, but once the initial sting wears off there is still a lot to be hopeful about. Brian Flores impressed in his first season, managing five wins with a roster that was in the middle of a massive overhaul and in 2020 he followed that up by doubling the number of wins and mounting a serious push for the play-offs. The way that push ended in Buffalo is definitely a concern, but under the circumstances with the Bills playing well and Tua Tagovailoa unable to keep up with the Bills’ high flying offence with Ryan Fitzpatrick unavailable to play his QB reliever role due to Covid-19 it is at least partly understandable. There are concerns about Tagovailoa’s ability to push the ball down field, but we are only nine games into his career and he had to deal with shortened pre-season where he was still recovering from the hip injury that ended his college career so there is still plenty of potential to grow. For the first time in years it feels like the Dolphins’ front office and coach are working in lock step, the Dolphins go into next season with $25 million in cap space and as I mentioned earlier, have the Texans’ third overall pick in the draft. If they are that worried about Tagovailoa they could easily pick a quarterback, and I certainly think they were keen to get a good look at him this season, but if they have faith in their previous decision they should have their choice of the best players at the top of the draft. Thanks to injury they were having a lot of problems with their skills position late in the season but with an upgrade there and a new offensive coordinator the Dolphins look set to challenge in the AFC East for years to come. I can’t say if they will win a game in the post-season next year or even make the play-offs, but I absolutely expect them to compete for it and I think they are more likely to make the play-offs than not. That’s probably as much as any fan of these nine teams can hope for.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average, and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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The End of the 2019 Regular Season

01 Wednesday Jan 2020

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So here we are at the end of the regular season, but the start of playoffs and a new decade. I’m going to do a recap of the games I watched in week seventeen before I run through the AFC side of the Disappointed Twenty, and will follow up tomorrow with the NFC side.

What I Saw

The first game I watched in week seventeen had no bearing on the playoffs or draft position, but it still made me happy as the Cincinnati Bengals secured only their second win of the season as they beat the Cleveland Browns in a relatively comfortable manner. The Bengals pass rush was able to harass Baker Mayfield all game and got six sacks as well as picking him off three times. I’ll be talking about both of these teams in my roundup so only thing I will add here is that I was surprisingly happy about this win, even if it was ultimately meaningless in the wider scheme of things.

Whilst the Bengals win had no real affect on things, one of the other TWF teams had a definitive effect on the playoffs even thought they will not be playing either. For a bad season in terms of results, there has been much to be cheered about this season for a Miami Dolphins team, who got more wins that you are supposed to whilst rebooting your roster and look to have found a really good head coach who cemented this view with a win against the New England Patriots that cost their divisional foes a bye week and throws them into an eminently losable match-up against the Tennessee Titans next week. The problems that have plagued the Patriots offence resurfaced this week, but in addition Tom Brady threw a horrid pick-six where he sailed a ball between two receivers that Eric Rowe grabbed and took gratefully into the end zone. If that wasn’t bad enough, Stephon Gilmore did not look at all like the shutdown corner he has looked like for most of the season and the Pats’ defence did not look itself. I’m still not going to declare the Patriots done until I’ve seen them eliminated, but I can’t remember a recent time where the Pats looked this vulnerable this late in the season.

There were two divisions up for grabs in week seventeen and the first of them to be won saw the Philadelphia Eagles finish their mission impossible with four straight wins despite the injuries that plagued them all season. Their final victim were the New York Giants who offered up some glimpses of what Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley might be able to achieve between them as the Giants kept the game close into the fourth quarter, helped by an impressive sixty-eight yard touchdown run from Barkley, but whilst Jones managed to outgain the Eagles’ Carson Wentz through the air, he could not match his care with the ball and the Eagles finished strongly to win 34-17.

The final game of the regular season was to decide the AFC West as the Seattle Seahawks hosted the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers had dipped in form thanks to injury but looked to be getting back to some of their mid-season form in recent weeks and got out to a strong start in this one, building a thirteen point lead that should have been more whilst holding the Seahawks scoreless. The Seahawks have injury problems of their own, hence the signing of Marshawn Lynch out of retirement, who provoked a huge response from the Seattle crowd despite not producing that many yards but did get a touchdown. However, Russel Wilson was able to work out the 49ers defence in the second half and mount a comeback that very easily could have produced the win were it not for a combination of refereeing and the return of late game mismanagement. The Seahawks had three downs on the one-yard line to get the winning touchdown, or would have if they had not been called for delay of game and then failed to get in from the five. The result means the Seahawks travel to face the Eagles and could very well face the 49ers again before the end of the playoffs.

The Disappointed Twenty: AFC Edition

So here is my quick run through the AFC teams who missed out on the playoffs.

The New York Jets finished 7-9, despite losing their starting quarterback to mono and so you could say that this was not a bad year. The problem is that I am not convinced by Adam Gase as a head coach these days, but whilst I don’t think he has done anything to lose his job, a lot will be riding on next season.

I have already mentioned that the Dolphins looked to have found a really good head coach in Brian Flores, and with the influx of picks coming in the next couple of years things could really take off for the Dolphins. They need to find a franchise quarterback, and Dan would very much like them to re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick as a mentor/capable backup, but if the Dolphins get the picks right they could be peaking as the Patriots enter into a new phase of the franchise.

Given the Pittsburgh Steelers lost their franchise quarterback to injury in week two, their 8-8 record is very creditable, and Mike Tomlin answered those who suggested that the Steelers might need to make a change at head coach. However, now having fixed the defence it is the offence that needs attention now, and given this franchise’s record of finding receivers in recent years you would like to think this is possible.  However, the Steelers are another franchise who will need a new quarterback sooner than later, but we shall have to see if Ben Roethlisberger has another trip to the playoffs in him.

The Cleveland Browns had a horrible year full of dysfunction and disappointment that ended with the firing of both Freddie Kitchens and GM John Dorsey. I wrote that there were warning signs before the season, and having created a roster full of character issues and not been prepared to change his role after a discussion with owner Jimmy Haslam, Dorsey lost his job for it. There is a lot to put right in Cleveland and it feels like they need a coach capable of building a winning culture at the Browns and sorting out Baker Mayfield. Given their track record it’s hard to have faith that Haslam will get this decision right but the fans in Cleveland definitely deserve better.

The results for the Bengals may have been hugely disappointed, but the culture in Cincinnati certainly seemed to hold up through the season and the players were saying good things about Zac Taylor. It looks like Joe Burrow is going to be the Bengals selection with the first overall pick, which is exciting because of both the player he is and the person he seems to be (Heisman Speech). I always hoped that Andy Dalton would get the right team to prove people wrong as under the right circumstances he was a really good quarterback (that 2015 team will forever haunt me because of his injury) and I hope he gets to enjoy success going forward, but I am ready for a new leader and hopefully a better team. It will need to be given the how good the Ravens are likely to be for years to come.

The Indianapolis Colts had their plans for the season thrown into the air with Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement, but further burnished the credentials of head coach Frank Reich by going 7-9 with Jacoby Brissett as quarterback and with some different injury luck could have won more game. I wonder if they will be looking at quarterbacks in the off-season, but given their franchise progress over the last couple of years under GM Chris Ballard I see them being competitive again next season. That said, the other reason they struggled this year was that after a Hall of Fame career, kicker Adam Vinatieri had a bad year before having knee surgery that ended his season. It’s hard to see a forty-seven year old man coming back next season, but you would have said that for a number of seasons before now and it has been an incredibly impressive career that should not tarnished by a difficult season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a disappointing year where a sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew outplayed their prime off-season signing at quarterback. The Jaguars have provided a structural conundrum for a while and really need to establish an identity, but it is interesting that after a second season of missing the playoffs they are keeping GM Dave Caldwell and head coach Doug Marrone in place having fired Tom Coughlin once the players’ union announced that the Jaguars accounted for 25% of all their filed grievances. I’m really not sure what to expect next season as there are a lot of questions surrounding their roster and we shall have to see if they can get everyone pointed in the right direction next season.

The Denver Broncos finished the season with four wins out of five and in Drew Lock may well have finally found a quarterback to follow Peyton Manning. It may have taken some time for Vic Fangio to get things working for the Broncos in his first year, but if they can build on their late season success in the off-season then the Broncos can be back in contention next season.

The last year of the Raiders playing in Oakland saw them improve by three wins from 2018, but Jon Gruden still finished with a losing record and questions will continue to be asked about quarterback Derek Carr. The Raiders lost their first round safety early in the season, but rookie running back Josh Jacobs established himself as franchise back until he was injured and if the Raiders can continue to add talent they can compete for the playoffs in their first season in Las Vegas. There’s still something that is making me hesitate to say they will do this, but if Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden have a second good off-season and don’t have the distractions of Antonio Brown they could easily do so.

It felt like Philip Rivers was saying goodbye after the LA Chargers last game, and the franchise seems to be in flux having failed to build on last year’s success, hampered again by injuries and seeming short on fans in LA. I don’t know what is going to happen to this franchise in the off-season, head coach Anthony Lynn seems safe but the Chargers need a new quarterback and something to bring the fans in. To be honest I’m not sure they are going to make a success of life in LA and whilst I think a possible move to London is a non-story (as their owner colourfuly explained earlier this year), I do think they could rue the day they left San Diego, even if Dean Spanos is unlikely to admit it.

That’s it for today’s post – check back tomorrow for a round up of the NFC teams as Competition Thursday swings into gear.

A Goodbye to the Disappointed Twenty

05 Friday Jan 2018

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And so we say our goodbyes to the teams that didn’t make the playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

The Cardinals were basically sunk by injury, as any team are going to struggle if they lose their starting quarterback to injury early in the season and the Cardinals also loss an elite level running back in David Johnson. They go into the offseason looking for a new head coach after Bruce Arians’ retirement as well as a new starting quarterback with Carson Palmer also retiring so big changes are in progress already and no one would be surprised if veteran receiver Larry Fitzgerald also retired. With so many changes it is going to be hard to predict how the Cardinals will do next season and I am sure there are going to be some very anxious fans in the offseason.

Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

The Ravens fell out of the playoffs with their last minute loss to the Bengals, and there is a lot of work to do. The Ravens defence played well although they didn’t exactly play a difficult set of quarterbacks and with the retirement of co-ordinator Dean Pees this side of the ball may not be as rock solid as in recent years. Their offence finished twenty-first in the league by DVOA and really needs to improve if they are to get back to where we would expect them to be.

Chicago Bears (5-11)

The Bears were never supposed to make the playoffs but with the performance of their offence it was decided that John Fox was not the head coach to lead them forward. The decision to extend general manager Ryan Pace despite the questionable trade up to get Mitch Trubisky and the receivers they surrounded him with seems curious but we will have to see who their new head coach is and what moves they make to the roster. I would imagine the Bears will be looking for someone to develop their offence and perhaps retain staff on what was the fourteenth ranked defence by DVOA.

Cincinnati Bengals (7-9)

The Bengals have decided to hold on to Marvin Lewis, which whilst I understand from the perspective of an owner who believes in continuity, but feels like a decision based on the last couple of weeks’ results and doesn’t give fans the change that many were hoping for. I have a huge amount of respect for what Lewis has done for the franchise, but the offence needs to get fixed in a hurry and the discipline of this team worries me. I would be delighted to see a turn around and playoff success next season, and I am curious to see what Bill Lazor can do with the offence now that he has been retained and has the offseason to install what he wants, but I am not convinced that a playoff win awaits in 2019 and that should be the target.

Cleveland Browns (0-16)

The Browns became the second team ever to go 0-16, but Hue Jackson has clearly persuaded somebody that it was the GM’s fault and not his. However, he will need to demonstrate clear progress next season and it’s not like the offence looked particularly good this year despite having some good talent. At 1-31 there will be a lot of pressure on Jackson if he doesn’t get off to a fast start next season but at least there are a lot of picks for new GM John Dorsey to work with. A lot is residing on these offseason moves but then it feels like that every year for the Browns.

Dallas Cowboys (9-7)

I’m sure that the Cowboys feel like the Ezekiel Elliott six week suspension cost them the playoffs, but there were signs that the offence needs more options in the passing game this season. With head coach Jason Garrett remaining it is hard to see a huge redesign of the offence, but if they truly want to compete they may have to do something on this side of the ball. Special mention goes to Rod Marinelli for co-ordinating the defence with modest resources, but it wouldn’t hurt to get him some more players either.

Denver Broncos (5-11)

The Broncos have kept Vance Joseph as their head coach but are firing a lot of his coaches. Despite the upheaval, the focus of the offseason will likely be getting a franchise quarterback, but whilst John Elway will get some time thanks to his Super Bowl win, they will need to have some free agent wins and do better in the draft than in recent years to turn things around. It is also worth noting that with roughly $24 million in cap space there would need to be some cap gymnastics if they wanted to get into the quarterback free agent market. The defence finished top ten despite repeatedly getting put into a bad position by the offence, but has taken a step back from recent years so the Broncos really need to get the offence at least league average rather than the thirty-first ranked by DVOA that they were this season.

Detroit Lions (9-7)

The Lions have fired head coach Jim Caldwell, and I would imagine this for missing the playoffs this season. On initial look this seems harsh given that Caldwell has the best winning percentage of any full time Lions’ head coach, three winning seasons and two playoff appearances. However, if you dig a little deeper you will find that his teams had a 4-23 record against teams that finished the season with a winning record and given the way his team played against the Bengals when their playoff chances were on the line it appears that GM Bob Quinn decided he wanted to hire his own coach. The improvement of Matthew Stafford under offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter has been noticeable and this will be an interesting team to watch in the offseason to see how they step up to the challenge of competing with the Packers and a Vikings team that look set to be competitive for the near future.

Green Bay Packers (7-9)

The Packers failed to make the playoffs for the first time in nine season and with the loss of Aaron Rodgers to a broken collar bone that may not be surprising, but it has prompted the Packers to make a number of moves that may not have happened should Rodgers been available for a few more games this year. They have let go of their defensive co-ordinator Dom Capers and some assistant coaches, but GM Ted Thompson is also moving to a different role as the front office is being re-organised. How this shakes out we do not know yet, but it is just possible that they may be a bit more active in the free agent market than in previous years whilst I am sure they will retain a commitment to drafting and developing their own players. Assuming a healthy season from Rodgers you would expect them to be in the hunt for the playoffs next year.

Houston Texans (4-12)

The Texans season crumbled thanks to injury, but there is hope for this team thanks to the play of rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson before his injury and if they can stay healthy the Texans should be good on both offence and defence. That’s a big if, but it they will have some stability on the coaching side as Bill O’Brien is staying as head coach but Rick Smith is stepping back from GM role to look after his wife and we’ll just have to see how things shake out for the Texans in the coming months and into next season.

Indianapolis Colts (4-12)

The Colts were never likely to do well in the first season of their rebuild but when it became clear that Andrew Luck was not going to play at all it was hard to see anything but a lost year for the franchise. Chuck Pagano never really stood a chance this season and although he did not lose his team and finished the schedule with a win, GM Chris Ballard is looking to hire his own coach. Pagano has already been approached about the vacant co-ordinator position in Baltimore and so looks like he will have work next season. A lot of the Colts’ future depends on Andrew Luck getting himself into shape to play football, and having missed the year we now have to see it to believe it but as the league doesn’t have enough good quarterbacks I think most will be hoping Luck makes it. With another offseason to build and having picked his own coach, Chris Ballard will be expecting progress next season but a lot rests on Luck’s injured shoulder.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-7)

The Chargers came good in the end and nearly made the playoffs, but when you start the year 0-4 it is always going to be difficult to get into the post season. The Chargers finished the season ranked eleventh overall by DVOA with an offence ranked seventh and a defence that was just outside of the top ten so if they can progress in the offseason and fix their problems at kicker then they should be competitive again next season, although time is running out for veteran quarterback Philip Rivers.

Miami Dolphins (6-10)

The Dolphins season was pretty much dead on arrival with Ryan Tannehill’s season ending injury in pre-season. Head coach Adam Gase was able to pull Jay Cutler out of the commentary booth to play again, but he wasn’t able to stop him being Jay Cutler. He flashed occasionally but threw for a modest two and a half thousand yards, ninenteen touchdowns and fourteen interceptions. I was impressed with Gase in his first season but two shut outs for an offensive minded head coach is worrying and the Dolphins’ front office doesn’t fill me with hope. They have a lot of talent at the skill positions on offence, including a couple of young players who progressed nicely through the year, but the Dolphins will need to improve the offensive line and defence plus hope Tannehill can stay healthy or look to another quarterback. Who know how the Dolphins will do next season?

New York Giants (3-13)

This year was pretty much a disaster for the Giants, whose third win only came in the final week of the season. It got so bad they cleared house during the season and have already hired Dave Gettleman to be their new GM. Gettlemen is a familiar face to the Giants and had some success building the Panthers into a Super Bowl team but was not known for assembling great offensive lines and has been somewhat abrasive with players. There is a lot to do with the Giants roster and the future at quarterback hangs over the franchise. They’ll need to get their head coach in place first, but it looks like there will be a lot of changes this offseason and even if Manning can operate next season behind a line that can protect him, he is not the future. There are some big decisions to be made by Gettlemen in the coming months.

New York Jets (5-11)

The Jets’ coaching team led by Todd Bowles have exceeded the expectations of the media with five wins despite a roster that lost a lot of veteran experience in the offseason and stayed competitive until career backup quarterback now starter Josh McCown’s season was ended by a wrist injury against the Broncos in week fourteen. This success has saved the job of Tod Bowles but possibly costs the Jets a shot at one of the top quarterbacks in the draft as those five wins mean they will be picking sixth in this year’s draft. They could try to trade up, but with the fourth most cap space in the league they could try to make a play for Kirk Cousins in free agency or try to get hold of Alex Smith if he becomes available. However they do it, with McCown already being thirty-eight they will need a quarterback for the future and they do not look to have one on the roster at the moment. Another offseason of growth is on the horizon but if they continue to stick with Bowles they could surprise next season with the right additions to their roster.

Oakland Raiders (6-10)

The Raiders’ season started off strongly enough before four straight losses put them in a hole they were never able to climb out of. This cost Jack Del Rio his job and with the offence taking a step back after the change in offensive co-ordinator and the defence finishing the season ranked twenty-ninth in the league by DVOA there is a lot of work to do. The Raiders have been strongly linked with Jon Gruden and if they land their man it will be fascinating to see if after nine years in the commentary booth whether Gruden has kept up with the changes in the NFL and can build a staff to turn things round. It is way too early to tell how things might go but it appears thing are about to get even more interesting for the Raiders as they wait to move out to Las Vegas in a few years’ time.

San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

There can be few franchises that were ever as happy about a 6-10 record as the 49ers will be thanks to a five game winning streak at the end of the season brought about by their trade for Jimmy Garoppolo. The defence finished the season ranked twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA and there is still plenty to improve in the offence but as long as they can get Guroppolo signed up long term they can set about building the team around him. The 49ers have the most cap space in the league so there should plenty of money to sign Guroppolo and free agents as well as extra picks in the draft. It could all go wrong of course, but it feels like the 49ers should be at least competitive next season and that the trading of Guroppolo is going to be one of those huge what if conversations for years to come.

Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

The Seahawks run had to come to an end at some point, but it was sad to see an era defining defence fall apart through injury during the season. What is more, it is going to be hard for Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril to come back from their neck injuries and play again whilst Richard Sherman will be trying to come back from a torn Achilles whilst turning thirty. Given all this you get the feeling that the offseason will be a busy one as the Seahawks are likely to overhaul their roster. When you have a quarterback of the calibre of Russell Wilson then you should stay competitive but with a rejuvenated Rams team and a 49ers team that look to be ascending the NFC West could be very competitive next season. I wouldn’t bet against the Seahawks given their pedigree, but I imagine it will be a somewhat different team that hits the field next season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)

The Bucs started of the season reasonably enough, but having got to 2-1 despite facing a Vikings team that turned out to be one of the best in the league they lost five straight and never got back into the playoff race. The injury to Jameis Winston that cost him three games didn’t help, but it wasn’t until late in the season that he began to find some form and certainly he did not make the progression that most thought he would given the upgrades to his receiving options in the offseason. It appears that Winston’s stronger finish was enough for the Bucs to keep faith with head coach Dirk Koetter despite it being widely expected that he could lose his job but it feels like things will need to turn round next season for Koetter to keep it. They could start this by fixing a defence that finished dead last in the league by DVOA and whilst I respect Mike Smith as a defensive coordinator, they will have to do something to change things regardless of any improvements by Winston. I don’t think anyone will be as excited going into next season as they were coming into this one, but away from the cameras of Hard Knocks and with the right additions in the offseason this team could still look to compete for the playoffs. The big question is whether Jameis Winston can develop or if he will continue to tease with his talent but not quite get there.

Washington (7-9)

I am really not sure what to write about Washington. It felt like they came into the season a little short of peak form, which might not be that bad as it is a long season and team like the Patriots and Seahawk regularly do this but they had lost three divisional games by the end of week eight and four out of their total of seven games. They were never able to recover and with all the changes to the front office in the offseason and the overhaul of their receiving group that never quite worked it is possibly not that surprising. Having missed out on the playoffs, Jay Gruden was not exactly fulsome in his praise of Kirk Cousins who still managed to throw for over four thousand yards and twenty-seven yards this year. It is hard to see Washington using a tag on Cousins for the third straight offseason and so they look to be a franchise in flux searching for their next quarterback. However, I don’t see a clear plan and I’m not convinced they will find a quarterback better than Cousins but time will tell. It is beginning to feel like a very long time since Washington were a franchise capable of winning Super Bowls.