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Week Fourteen Picks

10 Sunday Dec 2017

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Colts @ Bills (-3.5)

The Buffalo Bills still stand an outside chance of squeezing into the playoffs, but they need to keep winning and the injury to Tyrod Taylor’s knee seems to make it likely that Nathan Peterman will get a second start this week. I’m not sure it’s possible for Peterman to have a worse game than he did against the Chargers in week eleven but if he plays it throws real doubt on the Bills ability to win. The Indianapolis Colts come into Buffalo having lost heavily against the Jaguars and don’t have a win since week nine. Until last week they had kept their games close but even though it feels like I should pick the Colts to cover this, I can’t quite make myself do it. I could regret this but the Bills have been good at home and I just don’t trust the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Bengals (-6.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a very physical loss to the Steelers on Monday and thanks to injury are thin at both safety and corner on defence as well as at running back. They welcome a Chicago Bears team who may only be 3-9 but who have kept the majority of their games close. The Bengals have seemed to have found some more consistency in recent weeks but whilst I can see them winning this game, I can’t pick them to cover given the injuries and how tough the Bears defence has been playing.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Packers @ Browns (+3.5)

The Cleveland Browns are searching for a win and welcome a Green Bay Packers who will be desperate to keep themselves in with a theoretical shot at the playoffs as Aaron Rodgers recovers from his broken collar bone. This could be the week that the Browns get a win, but the Packers have something to play for and I’m just not sure what will happen. However, with the Browns getting this number of points I’m going to reluctantly pick them to keep the game within four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Cowboys @ Giants (+4.5)

The New York Giants might get a lift in the locker room from the firing of a head coach that clearly was not in full control of the locker room, but this doesn’t address the weakness of the roster. They welcome a Dallas Cowboys team who got their offence working a bit better last week and who look to be getting Sean Lee back on defence this week. This is a lot of points to get at home, but it is not enough to tempt me even if the Giants do have a little uptake in performance.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Lions @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

Apart from only having a 4-8 record, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been inconsistent on offence and struggled on defence. They welcome a limping Detroit Lions team who have been inconsistent as well despite being in the top half of the league by overall DVOA. It is hard to have much faith in either team and so I’m going to grab the points for the home underdog given Matthew Stafford’s hand injury.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Raiders @ Chiefs (-3.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs could get back to winning ways, but their defence has really struggled for a while now and they only have one win in seven games. The Oakland Raiders do not exactly inspire confidence either, particularly with a defence that is ranked last in the league by DVOA. Although Arrowhead Stadium is a famously loud place to play, on their recent form I just can’t pick the Chiefs to win by four.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Vikings @ Panthers (+2.5)

This should be an interesting game, but I have a lot more faith in the Minnesota Vikings’ ability to move the ball on the tough Carolina Panthers defence than vice versa. This could be one tough road game too many for the Vikings, but even with the Panthers getting points at home, it’s not quite enough to sway me from backing what could well be the best team in the league, even if the DVOA rankings do only have the Vikings listed as sixth.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

49ers @ Texans (-2.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a narrow win over the Bears in Jimmy Guroppolo’s first start and look to have found their franchise quarterback. However, as good as he looked, he didn’t get into the end zone against the Bears and this week they are on the road again facing the wounded Houston Texans team. The Texans have struggled ever since Deshaun Watson went down, and have lost two straight coming into this game. On paper the Texans should have enough to beat the 49ers, and whilst I do wonder what lift Guroppolo will give the 49ers it is just too early for me to back them in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Jets @ Broncos (+0.5)

The Denver Broncos have now lost eight straight games and with the issues at quarterback it is hard to see things improving drastically until the offseason. This week they face a scrappy New York Jets team who are very evenly ranked across all three phases of the game by DVOA. Even though only one of their five wins has come on the road, it is hard to look past the Jets given that the Broncos offence ranks dead last by DVOA and whilst the Broncos obviously could win, I can’t pick that to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Titans @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have stayed competitive despite the injuries they have suffered on offence, but with Adrian Peterson still injured and looking to be out for this game it is hard to see things improving for them. They welcome a Tennessee Titans team that have ground out an 8-4 record despite being ranked twentieth overall by DVOA. I don’t think this game will set many pulses raising outside of the Cardinals and Titans’ fan bases, but I expect the Titans to keep the momentum they have gathered rolling.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Washington @ Chargers (-6.5)

The line of this game does give me pause, but the LA Chargers are on a three game win streak and really seem to have found their formula now. They welcome a very injured Washington team who are a tough out but there is only so much Kirk Cousins can do behind their current offensive line. The lack of home field advantage the Chargers have since their move to LA does concern me, but their excellent pass rush will likely be terrifying to face for Washington. I do see the Chargers winning but I’m just not convinced they will win by seven yet in the end that is what I am nervously going to pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Eagles @ Rams (-2.5)

This is another huge game as the LA Rams welcome the Philadelphia Eagles. The LA Rams come into this game on a two game winning streak and will be hoping to stop the Eagles bouncing back from their loss to the Seahawks last week. In a game that pits the top two teams in the league by DVOA against each other I am going to grab the points and enjoy what should be a cracking game.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Seahawks @ Jaguars (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks got an excellent win last week, but whilst their defence proved it can hold up despite the injuries to Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor and should be fine against the Jaguars one dimensional offence, their offence could really struggle the Jacksonville Jaguars’ second ranked by DVOA defence. In particular the scary Jaguars pass rush could have a field day against the Seahawks suspect offensive line. I’m not saying the Seahawks can’t win, particularly after last week, but on the road I’m not sure I can pick it to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Ravens @ Steelers (-5.5)

I am sure the Pittsburgh Steelers come into this game with Ryan Shazier very much on their minds, and there will be players paying tribute to the injured linebacker with their cleats in this game. The Baltimore Ravens lead the league in defence and special teams by DVOA and are grinding their way through the season. The play of Ben Roethlisberger is noticeably better at home than it is on the road, and having beaten the Ravens on the road by seventeen, I think the Steelers could cover this line. They showed the mental toughness to come back and win last week after being down 17-0 in the second quarter, but after such a physical game I do wonder if there will be a let-down this week, yet in the end I’m going to back the Steelers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Patriots @ Dolphins (+11.5)

The Miami Dolphins have often played the New England Patriots tough at home, but give the way their season has gone and their recent performances, I just can’t pick them to do it again. I’m sure Dan will be very happy for me to be proved wrong, but in front of the nation I think the Patriots will be too focussed to let the Dolphins have a sniff in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

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Quick Thursday Night Pick

07 Thursday Dec 2017

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Only time for a quick pick tonight so here are the results from last night and what I think might happen.

Gee:      Week 13   12-4                   Overall   109-84
Dan:      Week 13   8-8                     Overall   102-91

Saints @ Falcons (+0.5)

I’ve said this about Thursday night games a few times this season, but this really should be a good game. The New Orleans Saints have been transformed this year and stand atop of the NFC South as they welcome their division rivals the Atlanta Falcons who have struggled at various points through the season but are still 7-5 and in the playoff hunt. However, if they are to stay there then the Falcons can ill afford to lose this game and with them being at home as well as desperate I am going to tip the Falcons to edge this one out although I would not be surprised if the Saints won. Certainly that would please Dan.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Week Fourteen Picks

11 Sunday Dec 2016

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And once more Dan and I are tied up in our competition to see who will be the least worst at picking games this season.

Gee:      Week 13   5-10                   Overall   87-105
Dan:      Week 13   4-11                   Overall   87-105

Steelers @ Bills (-1.5)

The Bills are having a funny season, and having built a 24-9 lead in the third quarter, their defence gave up an unanswered twenty-nine point to lose the game 38-24. At 6-6 they have had similar ups and downs in their wins and losses. This week they welcome a Steelers team who are on a three game winning streak as they fight the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North. Things seem to be coming right for the Steelers at the right time, and I see them winning this one off the back of their better offence and a defence that is doing just about enough.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Bears @ Lions (-8.5)

The Lions are having an impressive season and didn’t even need to come from behind last week as they controlled the Saints in a relatively straight forward win. This week they welcome a Bears team that beat them in Chicago and who are coming off a straight forward win against the 49ers. However, whilst there have been some improvements in a Bears team that are beset by injuries, they are 3-9 for a reason and so I expect the Lions to win. However, the nine clear points required the Lions to cover does give me pause, and in the end I back the Bears to cover this, albeit likely in a losing effort.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Bengals @ Browns (+6.5)

The Bengals sat troubled second year tackle Cedric Ogbuehi last week, and the line seemed to play better as the Bengals ran out easy winners against the Eagles. There were still too many field goals at the end of drives, and yet another missed extra point for Mike Nugent, but the team handled the Eagles easily enough, which I was not expecting. This week they face off against the Browns in the battle for Ohio part two. The Browns have been struggling, and worryingly this looks like the easiest game they have left to get a win this season. Dan is going for the Browns this week, but I saw something in that last game of the Bengals, and whilst I see this being a hard fought game, having beaten an Eagles team with a better record last week I am strangely confident going into this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Broncos @ Titans (+0.5)

I continue to find the Titans difficult to pick as I can’t quite pin down how good this team is, they are undoubtedly improved from last season, and are one of three teams with a 6-6 record in the AFC South, but they have not played consistently. This week they welcome a Broncos team who are still in the hunt for a playoff berth with an 8-4 record despite being third in the very competitive AFC West. The Broncos won despite the play of rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch last week, and hope to get Trevor Siemian back from his foot sprain that saw him miss that game. In what is basically a pick ’em game, I think the Broncos will have enough to win thanks to their defence, but I can easily see the Titans proving me wrong yet again this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Texans @ Colts (-6.5)

The Colts absolutely dominated a woeful Jets team on Monday Night Football, which was a good way to welcome back Andrew Luck from concussion. However, this week they face a Texans team that whilst struggling on offence, have a solid defence. There is a big difference in DVOA percentages between these two AFC South teams that have identical records, which explains the three and a half point swing to the Colts. In the end though, I’m not that confident that the Colts will win by a clear touchdown so I’m nervously backing the Texans cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Cardinals @ Dolphins (-1.5)

The Dolphins didn’t just have their six game win streak broken last week, they got pummelled by a Ravens team who for the first time put together an offensive performance that was up to the level of their defence. The Dolphins’ offensive line is beat up, and whilst Ryan Tannehill had improved through the season as Adam Gase has come to understand what the quarterback does and doesn’t do well, he is still not a player you would rest your offence upon. This week they welcome a curiously broken Cardinals team. I have a lot of faith in Bruce Arians and his staff, but the Cardinals have really struggled this season and quarterback Carson Palmer has not looked himself until last week. I was surprised to see them beat Washington last week, but I do wonder if they can get the win this week. I’m finding this a hard game to pick, but I just have a feeling that maybe the Cardinals found something last week against a Washington team I like. The Dolphins will be looking to spring back from a bad loss, but my gut says the Cardinals win this one. Of course my gut has been wrong a lot this season!

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Vikings @ Jaguars (+3.5)

The Vikings may have lost last week against the Cowboys, but they put up a very credible performance with their defence looking back to its early season form and the offence managing to be a little better. The Jaguars continue to struggle this year and I don’t see them winning, nor being worth a selection even getting these points and playing at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Washington @ Eagles (+0.5)

The Eagles struggled badly against the Bengals last week, and a lot is being made of Carson Wentz’s performance. The Eagles are basically putting their trust in Wentz, a rookie quarterback that has a struggling receiver group, a reworked offensive line, and an unreliable running game, so it is hardly a surprise that he is having a rookie wobble. More worrying will be the trouble the Eagles are having on defence, and whilst the secondary has been a problem all season, particularly at corner, the lack of rush is troubling and was not something I was expecting last week. As many questions as there are about Washington’s defence, their offence can hang with most in the league and I expect Washington to have far too much for the Eagles, even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Chargers @ Panthers (-1.5)

The Panthers got off to a horrible start with Can Newton benched for the opening play/drive due to team discipline. We can’t know for sure what the plan was because the opening pass was juggled by the Panther’s running back and the Panthers immediately turned the ball over. The Panthers got rolled over by the Seahawks on the road, and return to face the Chargers. The Panthers have had a bad season, and will be able to use an early draft pick to rebound next year, but they have little to play for other than pride this season. This is often over stated as players will always want to put good plays on tape, it is too easy to fall out of the league if you don’t, but they face a definite challenge this week. The Chargers may have lost to the Buccaneers last week, but I still think their record would be better if they were not in this year’s ultra-competitive AFC West, and I fancy them in this week’s game to beat the Panthers on the road. This could be a mistake, but I fancy the 5-7 team to beat the 4-8 one and so that’s what I’m picking.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Jets @ 49ers (-2.5)

This is a hard game for me to call as the 49ers just travelled to Chicago and lost soundly to the Bears, whilst the Jets got drummed on Monday night football. That said, the 49ers won their opening game and haven’t looked like winning another one all season, whilst the Jets have at least won three games. However, the Jets are set to start Bryce Petty at quarterback and that brings up its own host of problems. In the end I’m backing the Jets to cover purely on getting points and not believing that the 49ers have much of a home field advantage, but if I could stay away from this game I would.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Falcons @ Rams (+6.5)

The Rams have finally had enough information leaked to confirm that Jeff Fisher is remaining their coach having signed an extension in the summer. However, their offence has never got out of first gear whilst their defence has recently given up some big games. This week they welcome a Falcons team who will want to get the taste of last week’s close out of their mouths, and whose offence one more looks like the one ranked number one by DVOA again.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Seahawks @ Packers (+2.5)

This is an interesting game as the Packers have played better in the last couple of weeks, and welcome a Seahawks team that just lost their star safety Earl Thomas. This is a big loss for the Seahawks as Thomas has the rare ability to patrol from side-line to side-line as part of the Seahawks famed cover three coverage. However, I still think they have enough to take care of the Packers as the offensive line looked better after the shock of the injuries in the previous week. I could see Aaron Rodgers winning this game as he has also looked better in recent weeks, but in the end I have more faith in the Seahawks coaching staff and what they have put together this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Saints @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Saints are coming of a bad loss at home to the Detroit Lions, and are now on the road visiting the Buccaneers. This loss probably put paid to their hopes of making the playoffs, whilst the Buccaneers continue their push, and with the Buccaneers at home, I think they will cover this one despite some likely heroics from Drew Brees because that’s what Brees does.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Cowboys @ Giants (+2.5)

The Giants had their own six game win streak broken last week playing the Steelers, who were able to take advantage of the Giants erratic play. You can only beat the teams put in front of you and no game is a gimme so I don’t want to take lightly the Giants’ run of wins, but the Cowboys have the league’s best record for a reason. The Cowboys might have had some tight wins in recent weeks, but with a long week to prepare and an offence that continues to do its thing, I am confident they have enough to win by three of more on the road in New York, divisional game or not.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Ravens @ Patriots (-8.5)

I’m not sure if I trust the Ravens to be able to maintain the offensive performance they found last week, but I trust their defence, which has been good all year. It feels like I have picked against the Patriots covering large spreads and been wrong multiple times, but with the loss of Rob Gronkowski and a defence that on occasions looks suspect, I’m once more backing a team to cover against the Patriots.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Thursday Night Pick

08 Thursday Dec 2016

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So we head into week fourteen with one of the best Thursday night match-ups we’ve had all season.

Raiders @ Chiefs -3.5

This should be a cracking game. The Chiefs won probably the game of last week thanks to a combination of their defence, a special teams fake punt, and Eric Berry pulling off a pick six and a pick two. Their offence might not be firing on all cylinders, but they are finding a way to win. And all of this following a full extra quarter played the week before in Denver.

The Raiders are doing similarly well off the back of Derek Carr stepping up yet again this season, and reassuring fans that there will be life after the current quarterbacks greats like Brady, and Brees follow Peyton Manning into retirement. The Raiders defence has picked up in recent weeks, but I don’t think there will be much to separate these teams.

I am not sure the Raiders can keep winning on the road like they have, and Arrowhead stadium is a famously difficult place to play, but equally the Chiefs can’t keep squeezing out results like this. I am stronly tempted by the Chiefs, but that extra half point is just a little to rich for my blood, so I’m nervously back the Raiders in a game where something has to give.

Gee’s Pick:    Raiders
Dan’s Pick:    Raiders

Vikings at Cardinals, and Week 14 Picks

13 Sunday Dec 2015

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It was another great Thursday night game this week, which saw the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Arizona Cardinals, and they were much more effective than I was expecting despite the injuries in their defence, but that’s not where I will start.

The Cardinals began the game moving the ball well, but couldn’t finish their first drive and had to settle for a field goal. The Vikings in contrast put together a highly effective first drive, with Adrian Peterson looking like he was going to dominate the game as he carved up the Cardinals defence, and made some amazing jump cuts to get his touchdown. However, the Cardinals adjusted and in later drives limited him effectively as they made several tackles for losses. Not only that, but one of the Vikings three fumbles was caused when Josh Mauro cam bursting through the line and tackled Peterson as he attempted to make the pass to a receiver on a reverse play. So if the Vikings didn’t dominate on the ground, how did they stay in the game? The answer is that they came into this game with a plan for dealing with the Cardinals’ pressure schemes in the pass game and were able to throw the ball successfully with Teddy Bridgewater completing twenty-five of thirty-six attempts to eleven different receivers for three hundred and thirty-five yards and a touchdown. A lot of this was on little dump offs and screen passes to counter the pass rush and so whilst no one player dominated, the Vikings were effective moving the ball. The timing of a lot Bridgewater’s throws was good, which they have to be as his balls do seem to hang in the air and I imagine he would not be a relaxing quarterback to watch week in and week out if the Vikings are your team.

The Cardinals were equally as good moving the ball on offence, but could have won this game more easily if they were more effective closer to the goal line. They went 0-2 in the red zone, kicking three field goals and scoring two long passing touchdowns. The aggressive vertical passing game is the defining feature of the Cardinals offence under Bruce Arians, and in Carson Palmer he really has the quarterback to execute it. Not only that, but Arians really has this team playing for each other and nowhere was this more visible on the field than the Cardinal’s second touchdown when three Vikings players bit on an inside route leaving both Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald open. Carson Palmer said after the game he saw that they were both open and threw the ball between them and hoped, although on the coaching tape Floyd is in front of Fitzgerald so it does look like Floyd was the intended target, but the impressive thing for me was Fitzgerald’s block on safety Anthony Harris that opened the way for Floyd to finish a forty-two yard touchdown pass. The crazy thing is that this was not even the longest passing play of the day with John Brown demonstrating his flat out speed as he took a pass to the end zone to complete a sixty-five yard touchdown pass. It should be noted that whilst the vertical passing game is the defining feature, the Cardinals do not ignore the run game, with rookie David Johnson gaining ninety-two yards from nineteen carries, keeping the Vikings defence honest.

So we have seen how effective both offences were, but this was not a high scoring game and as such we shouldn’t overlook the defences. The Vikings defence had some bad moments like the miscommunication on the second touchdown play that had three defenders follow one receiver’s inside route, but they were generating consistent pressure in the passing game and if they only sacked Palmer twice and hit him a further six times, this looked like it was a function of how quickly Palmer was getting rid of the ball rather than impressive offensive line play. They also managed to bat away six passes, and whilst by no means dominant, they absolutely gave the Vikings a chance to win on the road despite on a short week whilst carrying a number of injuries.

Part of this was due to the boom or bust nature of the Cardinals’ aggressive blitzing on defence, which only gained the Cardinals one more sack and one less quarterback hit. The problem with that is the extra sack was Dwight Freeney pulling off one of his trademark spin moves and getting to Teddy Bridgewater on the last play of the game. However, what I was impressed with was the play of the two defenders I am intending to watch on coaching tape next week in Deone Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu. They led the team in tackles, with Mathieu getting ten solo and Bucannon seven. Not only that but they both had tackles for a loss, Mathieu batted a quick out pass in a way I’ve not seen before, somehow guessing right immediately and getting a hand to the ball as it was in the air but still behind the line of scrimmage, whilst Bucannon forced one of the Vikings three fumbles and recovered the ball. I wonder if the Vikings would have had the same success late in the game if the Cardinals had kept a few more players in coverage, but that doesn’t seem to be in Arians and his coaching staff’s nature and it certainly makes the Cardinals a highly entertaining team to watch.

This was a great game, and I thought the Vikings had a very credible outing in a game I was expecting to be very one sided. A lot of the post game focus is on the final play call, with some arguing the Vikings should have just kicked the field goal, and others saying that with a good quarterback you try to make the field goal easier and it was just a bad play by Bridgewater. I think this is one of those situations where whatever play you call, if it goes wrong the coach will be criticised, but whilst the Vikings will need to start getting some wins to stay in the playoff hunt, only the Seahawks are able to join them and the Packers on eight wins this week so they stand a very good chance of joining the Carolina Panthers and the Cardinals in the playoffs. The Cardinals now have the division sewn up, but could do with working on their red zone efficiency if they want to be truly terrifying, but no one will want to face this team in the post season.

And now onto our picks for the rest of week fourteen.

Falcons @ Panthers (-7.5)

The Falcons are settling into an eight and eight season kind of a season, which is still an improvement on last year, it just came in a very lopsided way thanks to their impressive start, but they really need to get some pass rush to help get their defence sorted out in the offseason. They travel this week to Carolina to face the unbeaten Panthers who they have to play twice in the coming weeks. I’m not sure the Panthers will go unbeaten, but games against the Giants in week fifteen and the Buccaneers in week 17 look like more likely losses, and I think they will have too much for the Falcons in both Carolina and Atlanta. The points give me a little bit of pause, but in the end I can’t look past Cam Newton and the Panthers’ defence in this one.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Panthers

Bills @ Eagles (-0.5)

The Eagles may have beaten the Patriots last week, but they conceded a lot of late points to a team with very few options in the passing game and a patchwork line, whilst getting touchdowns from their defence and special teams. They are still not a team that you can trust, whilst the Bills seem to be doing it on offence rather than defence, but have an outside chance of making a wildcard place. In a straight pick the winner situation I am going for the road team, nervously…

Gee ‘s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:     Bills

Washington @ Bears (-3.5)

The Bears are coming off what they will likely see as a frustrating loss to the 49ers, and will have a point to prove against a Washington team that has not been good on the road. The difference in Washington’s performance on the roach and at home is quite startling, so I’m not going to back them to get their first road win in Chicago this week.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Bears
Dan’s Pick:     Washington

Steelers @ Bengals (-3.5)

This is game of the week, as it’s always a good contest between these two teams, but the Steelers offence is working so well at the moment and they are exactly the wrong team for the Bengals to be facing with the injuries mounting up in their secondary. I will be very happy to be proven wrong, but I simply don’t have as much faith as Dan in the Bengals this week.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Steelers
Dan’s Pick:     Bengals

49ers @ Browns (-1.5)

I am not sure why the Browns are getting points against anyone at the moment, particularly with Johnny Manziel starting at quarterback. The Browns have had an amazing stretch of failing to find a franchise quarterback, and this season is falling apart spectacularly giving them the opportunity to mess up a high pick again. The 49ers are by no means a good team, but given the amount of talent they lost and the division they play in, getting four wins is better than how things looked early in the season and I think they will add to their win total this week.

Gee ‘s Pick:    49ers
Dan’s Pick:     49ers

Lions @ Rams (-0.5)

The Rams continue to slide, whilst the Lions have a defence that is now playing well and a system that is functioning better on offence. The Rams offence is so focussed on Gurly and has so many problems in the passing game that I don’t think they will win this one.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Lions
Dan’s Pick:     Lions

Titans @ Jets (-7.5)

The Jets keep going, and are truly in the hunt for the wildcard place, but whilst I expect them to beat the Titans, this number of points make me nervous given the Titans defence has played okay in stretches this season. Part of me wants to pick the Titans to cover in a loss, but in the end I can’t bring myself to make the pick.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:     Jets

Colts @ Jaguars (-1.5)

The Colts fell back to earth last week in the AFC’s own division that no one wants to win, losing to the Steelers badly and getting Hasselbeck injured in the process. The forty year old quarterback has practised all week, but the Colts are a team I don’t trust. The problem for me is that so are the Jaguars, who seem to play well enough to put up a good showing, but make too many mistakes to win regularly. This is another game where part of me wants to pick a team, but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. I know the Jaguars are at home, but I’ve been bitten too many times to back them in this one, which is probably their cue to get the win.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Colts
Dan’s Pick:     Colts

Chargers @ Chiefs (-9.5)

The Chargers surprised me in week 12, but it was against the Jaguars and could get nothing going against the Broncos defence last week. I don’t expect them to have much luck against the Chiefs this week either, and whilst divisional games can be funny, I think the Chiefs will cover in a game they need to win to stay in the playoff hunt.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:     Chargers

Saints @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The New Orleans Saints offence seems to be hit and miss, but they’ve just lost running back Mark Ingram for the rest of the season, whilst the Buccaneers have really come on during the course of this season. This is usually the sign that things are going to go wrong for the Bucs, but I think they will win this one at home in Tampa Bay and so I’m going to back them. Sorry Bucs fans…

Gee ‘s Pick:    Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:     Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Ravens (+8.5)

The Seahawks are playing good football on offence, with Russell Wilson seemingly beginning the transition to a pocket quarterback, and Thomas Rawls continuing to run well. They absolutely hammered the Vikings last week with their defence pitching a shut out. This is a lot of points for the Ravens to be getting, particularly as they have specialised in close games all season, but Matt Schaub is a pick six throwing machine these days, and I think this is finally the game where the Ravens’ problems finally are reflected in the score. I wouldn’t be too surprised if they kept it close though…

Gee ‘s Pick:    Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:     Seahawks

Raiders @ Broncos (-7.5)

The Broncos keep rolling with great defence and just enough offence to win, but whilst I think they will be able to run on the Raiders and win, I do wonder if they are this much better given how effective Derek Carr and Amari Cooper have been in the passing game. I’m going for a Raiders cover.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Raiders
Dan’s Pick:     Raiders

Cowboys @ Packers (-7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys got a win last week, and somehow are still not out of the race in the NFC East despite only having four of them. This week they travel to face a Packers team that got a stunning last minute win last week, but are still not playing well on offence. They will have had some extra days to try to get healthy on the offensive line, but I’m not sure I feel comfortable backing them to win by this much over anybody at the moment. I could regret this as I still think the Packers will win, but I have a feeling the Cowboys keep it closer than this.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:     Packers

Patriots @ Texans (+3.5)

I was all set to pick the Texans in this one, and then Sir JJ of Watt broke his hand in training, and whilst he will be playing this weekend, I think this is one obstacle too many for the Texans. I don’t know if Rob Gronkowski will play, although he’s made the trip from New England to Houston, but it’s hard to see the Patriots losing three in a row for the first time in forever.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Patriots

Gaints @ Dolphins (+0.5)

The New York Giants seem to be a team that wins or loses off the back of which Eli Manning is playing and Odell Beckham making spectacular catches. I’m not sure if this will be enough to beat the Dolphins in Miami, but given their recent run of form and the problems in the Dolphins secondary I suspect it might.

Gee ‘s Pick:    Giants
Dan’s Pick:     Dolphins

Thoughts on Linebackers and Safeties

10 Thursday Dec 2015

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The league is heading into the final quarter with only a number of teams still in the hunt for the playoffs, although things are beginning to settle. Even so, teams that are completely out of the playoff race are still generating plenty of headlines.

The Cleveland Browns on/off dalliance with Johnny Manziel being there starting quarterback only further demonstrates the dysfunction at the top of this franchise. There are rumours flying round of conflict between those who want Manziel to start, and those for whom he has already burned his bridges with. You can see how a coaching staff that will want to be getting hired again next year if they can’t secure their jobs this year, a coaching staff who want to win games, could come into conflict with a front office group who need to know what they have in an their first round pick from two years ago and whether it is time to move on already. The problem is that with the turnover in both coaches and front office staff, it is very hard to establish a culture and go through the process it takes to turn around a franchise in trouble, and very often it seems like when a team is turned into a success, this improvement is built off the back of previous regime’s work. That said, there has been such a carousel at quarterback and staff at the Browns that it is hard to know when things will turn round.

I don’t want to pile on to the poor Browns so I’ll stop using them as an example, but I did want to pick up on a couple of things from listening to the Ross Tucker podcast this week, without turning the column into an advert, and also tie this in with tonight’s exciting game between the Cardinals and the Vikings.

On his usual Wednesday spot, regular guest Andrew Brandt was speaking about why he was a fan of Chip Kelly, and specifically talked about him as an agent of change, and that this was a rare thing in a lot of aspects in coaching. This could be seen as a curious concept given how often we hear about coaching innovations, but it seems that very often what we hear described as innovation is in fact a new wrinkle or a variation on a concept. Spread offences and pass first offences are not a new concept, but the sophistication of modern schemes is, however equally you will hear from retired players that the technique at certain positions is in decline and that this could be due to the reduced amount of time that coaches get to work with their players, particularly in the more physical drills. I don’t want to delve too far into this, but what it did get me thinking about was that if you compare the sophistication with which coaches and management are dealing with the way that a football team is constructed and plays, versus the way the media breaks down the roster then maybe we are missing a trick or two.

There was a great discussion between Ross Tucker and Greg Cosell today about tonight’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings, and the bit that grabbed me was their discussion about Deone Bucannon who Cosell described as a 210 Ibs linebacker, although he’s listed on the Cardinals’ website as safety. Now they were talking about whether this was the future of the position, these what would be traditionally undersized linebackers who could cover and cope in this age of spread defences. One of the reasons I love Cosell is he’ll always state when hasn’t seen something or can’t speak on it, but also how he’ll remained balanced, and he countered Rot Tucker’s question on how much you needed heft at the point of attack these days with the way the league is going by saying that this is not absolutely the case and let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I don’t want to get pick holes with either of them as they both know more about football than me, the podcast can be found here, but it did get me thinking.

Firstly, this weekend I am going back to look at the coaching tape from last week’s Ravens @ Dolphins game as Dan would like me to take a look at Ryan Tannehill’s performance. Next week I think I will take a look at the Cardinal’s use of Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu as I’ve been meaning to look at the Cardinals use of extra DBs in there defence for a while.

Secondly, the conversation about the future got me thinking again about linebacker groups, and something I have thought about before concerning them and the use of specialist safeties. I’ll apologise for bringing things back to the Bengals, but they are the team I watch week in and out, so in this case it easier to demonstrate what I am talking about by using them as an example in discussing the analysis of roster construction and how we talk about building a team.

In the offseason linebacker was one of the areas of concern for the Bengals as they had been banged up last season, had really struggled to defend the run when Rey Maualuga was out injured, plus Vontaze Burfict who had really come into his own was also injured and would be coming of microfracture surgery going into this season. The Bengals approach wasn’t to go out and secure a high price starting linebacker in free agency or draft a linebacker high, but neither was it to fill their roster with a middle linebacker, weak and strong side backers and then backups. Instead they drafted a linebacker, signed AJ Hawk as a free agent and resigned Maualuga. I know some were not sure about this approach, or what they did with the defensive line, but what was clever is that they built themselves a group with a set of complimentary skills and gave themselves depth. They have the ability to rotate their linebackers to have the right players for the job depending on who they are playing. Facing a team who power run up the gut, then that offence is going to have to deal with Rey Maualuga in the A gap, but if you’re facing a spread offence then you can drop into a nickel defence with the extra db, but also with a speedy linebacker like Emmanuel Lamur to help cover those linebackers who cause all those matchup problems.

For me this is an area where teams could innovate, that tweener safety/linebacker that so often was a concern in the draft, could become the new tool to help cover those nightmare tight ends and help deal with spread concepts. However, I’m wary of saying that is will become the new way of doing things. Sure you may have some lighter starters, but with this age of injury and increased difficulty for defences, maybe there is an edge to be found in crafting a linebacker group to have multiple types of player designed to rotate snaps in different amounts depending on the situation. I don’t think the days of the run stuffing middle linebacker are over, but possibly gone are the days when they are the star of the defence and play a lot of snaps, but if the balance in the NFL tips too far towards speed defences, then you can bet your bottom dollar that someone will start running power running games with success.

So I shall look forward to take a close look at the defence of the Cardinals as we go back into my picks competition with Dan, who slipped further behind again last week.

Gee:    Week 13   10-6            Overall   101-91
Dan:    Week 13   8-8              Overall   92-100

Vikings @ Cardinals (-7.5)

This is a really bad spot for the Vikings as they will be missing three starters on defence again this week, and the last thing they really need it so be travelling from Minnesota to Arizona to face a Cardinals team that is going from strength to strength. I would usually expect this to be a closer game, but with the match ups and timing favouring the Cardinals I am going to back them to cover this in a game I’m really looking forward to.

Gee ‘s Pick:   Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

NFL Week 14 Picks: Running Late with Thursday Night Recap Edition

06 Saturday Dec 2014

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A horrible weekend picking games bled into a rubbish week that saw me drop two games behind Dan and run late with the picks this week as work and domestic issues ate all my time. One of the reasons I love the NFL is its unpredictability, but it can make picking game hell. I am going to keep what I wrote about the Thursday night game before it happened, and then give you a recap before I finish the rest of the week’s games.

Gee:     Week 13   3-13                        Overall   94-98
Dan:     Week 13   6-10                        Overall   96-96

Cowboys @ Bears (+3.5)

The Preview:

Neither of these teams played well in their Thanksgiving games with the Cowboys offence struggling against the Eagles tough defence and Tony Romo looking like he is feeling the affects of his back injury. There is already talk of the Cowboys annual December slump and whether this team could fall to another eight and eight season but I don’t see it happening. As unimpressive as the Cowboys were, they were positively inspiring compared to the Bears, whose offence continues to stutter whilst the defence was indeed the perfect unit for the Lions to get going against. I’m not making the mistake of believing in the Bears again this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

The Recap

This game did nothing but confirm what I was already thinking. I’m not sure why the Bears seemed to abandon the run again for a second week in a row. You could understand them doing it against the Lions as no one has had success rushing against their defence all year, but the Cowboys run defence was ranked twenty-fourth by DVOA coming into this game, but once again it was short passes to Forte and forcing the ball to Martellus Bennet. They managed to get some garbage time points in the fourth quarter, but even as they began to edge towards an unlikely come back, Jay Cutler threw an interception into the end zone and the game was over. This team is in a mess and I worry about how they are going to get themselves out of it, tied as they are to a lot of the personnel on offence that just aren’t doing it this season and a defence that is dreadful.

The Cowboy on the other seem to be intent on killing DeMarco Murray who ran the ball thirty-two times for 179 yards and caught nine passes. The Cowboys offensive line is outstanding, allowing Tony Romo to function despite his injuries, and he definitely looked better than he did on Thanksgiving working on a short week. The worrying thing is that the defence is definitely looking like it is breaking down a bit. There was barely any pass rush and whilst they are very much in the playoff hunt, I can’t see them making much of a dent if they do get there.

Steelers @ Bengals (-3.5)

Oh boy was the end of the Bengals game tense this week. I didn’t know about Dalton’s sickness until Monday, but the defence continues to look better whilst the offence found a way to win in the second half. I think a special mention must go to Mohamed Sanu who is having a great season in place of the injured Marvin Jones, and was the number one receiver whilst AJ Green was injured earlier in the season. He also threw an eleven yard pass in this game to take his NFL career record to five out five completions for 177 yards and two touchdowns.

This week they face the hated Steelers, who are driving me round the bend this season due to their inconsistency. I do not have a handle on them at all, their defence looks fragile and is a surprising twenty-ninth by DVOA, but whilst their offence can be spectacular with Roethlisberger throwing six touchdowns in two consecutive games, Le’Veon Bell looking as good as any running back in the league and already has 1000 yards rushing this season, whilst Antonio Brown is one of the elite receivers in the game, they have also misfired in several games. The fact is that the Steelers have lost against the Buccaneers, Jets, Titans, and last week they welcomed the Saints who had lost three straight at home and lost again.

This could be a complete homer pick, but I’m sticking by my Bengals.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Colts @ Browns (+3.5)

The Colts big win against the Semi-Pros of Washington masked an interesting start to the game for Andrew Luck who early on in the game had a fumble and an interception before he had a completion. Luck is so good that he gets forgiven these errors, but he and the Colts will need to tighten their game up against the Browns this week as they are not going to see the repeated blown coverages that they got against the Semi-Pros, who also scored twenty-seven points against a Colts defence that has been up and down this season.

The Browns head back home after a loss at the Bills where the game really got away from them in the second half. It has been a difficult few weeks for Brian Hoyer who has been struggling along with the offence since Alex Mack went down injured. It was bad enough against the Bills that Johnny Manziel finally put in an appearance, but having led the offence up the field on an eighty yard drive that culminated in him scrambling for a touchdown, he also fumbled the ball to give up a score and ultimately he could not get the Browns back into the game. Their coach Mike Pettine has said that Manziel will be taking first team snaps as they look at getting him involved in the game.

I’m really not sure how this will affect the Browns, but it doesn’t inspire confidence and although I am worried about the points, I’m backing the Colts to have too much when they come to Cleveland.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Buccaneers @ Lions (-9.5)

The Lions had a much better game last week on offence, looking more like themselves and their run defence was so good the Bears barely tried any running plays. I’m not sure if this can last, but if they can maintain the production of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate from this game then they will be a handful for anyone.

There are definite signs of improvement from the Bucs, with Mike Evans seeming able to catch any ball that is thrown near him. That said, they were not good enough to snatch a winnable game away from the Bengals and the twelve men of the field call must be one of the most frustrating penalties of the season for this coaching staff.

Since their bye in week seven the Buccaneers have not been blown out, and their defence has been turning round. I think the Lions will win but I don’t like their offensive line and it appears I’m not learning my lesson about picking road underdogs.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Giants @ Titans (+0.5)

This game is a real mystery wrapped in an enigma with a fluctuating quantum state that changes upon observation.

On the one hand we have the Giants who are just falling apart after briefly putting together a promising run of performances earlier in the season, but are now on a seven game losing streak. On the other hand, the Titans have just lost heavily to the Texan, are on their own six game losing streak, and their rookie quarterback is now injured so we’re back to Jake Locker as the possible starter.

I don’t like either team so I’m plumping for the Titans at home but who knows with this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Rams @ Semi-Pros(+2.5)

Things did not get much better for the Semi-Pros this week with a slight improvement in offensive production undone by repeatedly blow coverage in the secondary. You will seldom see so many wide open receivers on long plays as there were in last week’s game and surely this must cast some questions over the coaching of this team.

The Rams are finishing the season strong, and whilst we shouldn’t over react to their fifty-two point win over the Raiders, their defence pitched a shut out and Tre Mason looked really good as he rushed for 117 yards and two touchdowns on only fourteen carries.

I can only see one result in this one, which maybe dangerous but I’m sticking to my guns.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Ravens @ Dolphins (-2.5)

The Dolphins won ugly against the Jets last week, but whilst the performance from Tannehill was not outstanding with no touchdowns and an interception, the worrying trend is the second straight bad performance from the defence that for most of the season has been a strength of the team. They are still ranked top ten in defence by DVOA, but having conceded twenty-two points in a quarter against the Broncos two weeks ago, they conceded 200 rushing yards in the first half against the Jets.

The Ravens are still a lot of people’s pick as the best team in the AFC North but they are now a game and a half behind the Bengals, and their patched together secondary is going to be their Achilles heel for the rest of the season. I would like their offence to be more consistent as it has shown flashes, with Justin Forsett has being one of the free-agent pickups of the season, but has not put it together as regularly as you would like.

I think the Ravens have a slight edge in this one and so I’m backing them to bounce back with a win.

Jets @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Vikings are playing solid defence and so I don’t expect the Jets to be able to run the ball like they did against the Dolphins. This is a problem as it has been the only impressive thing the Jets have done in weeks and they still lost. I think that the Viking could be a really interesting team next year, and this week I’m backing them for a solid home win.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Panthers @ Saints (-9.5)

This is a difficult game to pick as the Panthers are struggling this season with problems on both sides of the ball and Cam Newton looking particularly off. However, the Saints have also been pretty bad this season and this is a high line. The Saints were much better against the Steelers than the score showed as their defence was unable to stop them making it a close game towards the end, despite the Saints mostly being in control. Given this, it would make sense to pick the Panthers to cover, but I can’t bring myself to back this road underdog, I don’t have any confidence in their offence so I’m reluctantly hoping the Saints begin to look more like themselves.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Teaxns @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars got themselves a second win last week against the Giants and continue to compete on defence and keep themselves in game, but their horrid o-line makes it very hard from them to do much on offence.

The Texans played excellently last week with Ryan Fitzpatrick having a career day, and JJ Watt getting two sacks as well as forcing a fumble, recovering it, and then catching an touchdown pass on the resulting offensive play.

I think this is a relatively straight forward win for the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Bills @ Broncos (-9.5)

The Broncos found another way to win last week, running the ball with CJ Anderson for 168 yards off thirty-two carries. Their defence continues to play well, and whilst they have had their wobbles recently, the Broncos have to be included in any discussion of the best teams in the AFC.

The Bills have had a good couple of weeks, but whilst I am impressed with their defence which is anchored by one of the best defensive lines in the league, I do not trust their offense and I’m waiting for Kyle Orton to come back to Earth.

If this game was in Buffalo I might fancy the Bills for an upset, but at Mile High Stadium not only do I fancy the Broncos to win, but I think they’ll cover too.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Chiefs @ Cardinals (-0.5)

The Cardinals have been so good for most of the season, but it looks like they might have finally reached a point where they are too hobbled by injury to win. They have no run game to support Drew Stanton, who is currently no where near good enough to win them games, and even the defence was bad last week against the Falcons. I wouldn’t put it past Bruce Arians to find a way to get them into the playoffs, but right now I can see them slipping out.

The Chiefs are coming off their own two game losing streak, and have not been inspiring. However, I have more faith in Alex Smith than I do Stanton and even though they are the road team, I think that they have more ways of manufacturing points than the Cardinals at the moment.

This is a pick that could haunt me as I really believe in Arians as a coach, but Andy Reid is not exactly awful himself.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

49ers @ Raiders (+7.5)

One suspects that the Raiders minds were elsewhere in the lead up to last week’s game, resulting them getting smashed 52-0 by the Rams. They were horrible and there doesn’t seem to be much point in going over it in detail, but I would imagine they will be desperate to demonstrate that it was a one off by a team not used to success.

The 49ers are in trouble as their offence is horrible and Kaepernick seems to be going backwards. I think that they are going to miss the playoffs this year, and we will be seeing new coaches whose first order of business is an overhaul of the offensive scheme. I see them winning this game, but I have no confidence that they can generate enough offense to cover this spread on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Seahawks @ Eagles (-1.5)

This should be a really good game with the Seahawks defence playing really well over the last couple of weeks having got some players back from injury. However, whilst I think that they could overturn the Cardinals at the top of the NFC West, I think this game will be beyond them.

This is not an easy journey for them, and the Eagles are playing well. I worry about Sanchez facing the Seahawks defence, but he has played in big games before and never with this level of surrounding cast or within such a well coached scheme. I think the Eagles defence has enough to contain the run game of the Seahawks, who really don’t have much of a passing attack and so I see the Eagles eking out a win.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Patriots @ Chargers (+3.5)

The Chargers got themselves back into the playoff hunt with a win over the Ravens last week, but I don’t know how sustainable this success is. It appeared that Philip Rivers was feeling a bit healthier and certainly he played well, but given that their defence is ranked twenty-eighth by DVOA he is going to have to be outstanding again.

This defensive problems look to be further compounded as the Patriots are coming into town and if you are twenty-first in the league by DVOA against tight ends, the last player you want to see is Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots were in the game with the Packers until the end, but there were a couple of throws that Brady would like to have back. It is interesting that Bill Belichick flew the team straight from Green Bay to Sand Diego, but I think they have more than enough to take care of business in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Falcons @ Packers (-11.5)

It has now been more than two years since Aaron Rodgers has thrown an interception at Lambaugh Field and if he keeps up this level of play for a few more years there is going to be a real argument about who the best quarterback of all time is. Add to this a defence that had been playing really well recently, with Julius Peppers demonstrating he was a really good offseason pickup and Clay Mathews making a difference as he moves between inside linebacker and pass rusher, and you have a recipe for Super Bowl contention.

The Falcons did really well to beat the Cardinals last week, their patched up offensive line held up well enough for Matt Ryan to give Julio Jones a career day. However, I really worry about how their defence is going to hold up against the Rodgers and all the weapons he has at his disposal. I think this is going to be a very long day for a team that really isn’t very good, and is about to get found out.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers