Well, both Dan and I took losses on Thursday, although with the Steelers remarkable comeback we had the chance of the cover despite Mike Tomlin’s team being 29-0 down until 2:11 in the third quarter. It can’t be fun being a fan of the Vikings this season.

I have also given Dan and I a Mulligan on the survivor picks this week given we both selected the Chargers before the news broke about the extent of the Covid-19 break out in their receiver room. Dan is now going against the Texans by taking Seattle, whilst I’m backing the Packers to beat the Bears given Aaron Rodgers’ ownership of the Bears. I just hope that quote and this pick doesn’t come back to bite me.

Dan:     Seahawks
Gee:     Packers

Early Games:

There’s a couple of big divisional games in the early slate and it’s one of them that I’m picking, although if you like bruising competitive football you could do a lot works that watch the Ravens taking on the Browns, but I have settled on the Cowboys travelling to Washington to take on the Football Team. The Cowboys are taking on a team who have won their last four games coming off their bye, whilst the Cowboys have gone 2-3 in the last five, though have had some injury/Covid-19 problems in this stretch. If the Cowboys are the team that we thought they were early in the season, they need to win this game to extend their lead at the top of the division. The truth is that whilst I have been impressed with the way Washington have found their feet since their bye, I have more faith in Dak Prescott to find a way through the Football Team’s defence than Taylor Heinicke not to have a turnover or two against an opportunistic Cowboys defence.

Points from the rest:

• The Ravens’ injuries meet the Browns’s in what feels like it could be an absolute mess of a game. It’s certainly odd to see the Ravens ranked as lowly as sixteenth overall by DVOA but the Browns are only ranked two places higher and have distinctly whelmed this season.
• You know it is bad when the league’s own website is carrying a story about the disfunction of your team. The Titans have a bunch of injuries and may well have problems covering this line, but it would be a genuine surprise if they lost to the Jaguars.
• Divisional games are funny things, and I am still not convinced by the Chiefs’ offence, but their defence genuinely have found their feet and the Raiders insisted on playing the wrong defence the last time these two teams met and it’s hard to see Gus Bradley changing it up this time so whilst hesitant, I think the Chiefs may cover this one.
• The Saints are so injured on offence, but the Jets have so far to go before they will be truly competitive, and the Saints have a really good defence so that’s where I’m inclined to pick in this one.
• I’m not sure what to expect from the Panthers after the firing of Joe Brady, and the Falcons have been at least competitive so far this season so it’s hard to find a side in what is a meeting of two bad teams that is strangely intriguing as a watch.
• The Seahawks still have a lot of problems, and it feels like there will big changes in the off-season, but the Texans are just plain bad and it feels like they are not even finding young players to build around for the future.

Ravens @ Browns (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Jaguars @ Titans (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Raiders @ Chiefs (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Saints @ Jets (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Cowboys @ Washington (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Seahawks @ Texans (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Late Games:

The big game from the slate game must be the Bills trying to get over the tough loss to the Patriots on Monday by taking on the Buccaneers in Tampa. The absence of a Bills run game will be less of an issue against a defence that is one of the toughest to run against in the league and perhaps the bigger test will be the Bills defence going against Tom Brady on the road without corner Tre’Davious White who was lost for the season in week twelve. This was meant to be the year the Bills took the next step and instead they find themselves two games behind a Patriots team resurgent in 2021 despite a bad start to the season. The Bills have not had a marquee win since beating the Chiefs in week five and need a performance to settle the nerves and give themselves a platform to build on with their crucial return visit to New England in week sixteen on the horizon.

Points on the Rest:

• The Broncos should beat the Lions as they have for the most part beaten the teams they should do and are at home, but there are plenty of questions around the Broncos as they still have not found a franchise quarterback and who knows how the Lions will respond to their first win of the season.
• The Chargers will just be happy to get a win against the Giants given the issues they are having at receiver thanks to a Covid-19 outbreak. The Giants have been competitive at times this season, but it feels like they will be going into the offseason with more questions than answers after second year head coach Joe Judge struggled to build on some glimpses of hope from last season.
• The Bengals had enough bad turnover luck last week that I am not freaking out about their loss to the Chargers, but the 49ers are not an easy team to beat and I don’t think any Bengals fan will feel relaxed about Joe Burrow’s hand problem until he’s got through the game looking good, even if he did nearly pull of the comeback last week with his hand swelling after the dislocation of his little finger. The 49ers are a strange team to pick this season and with Deebo Samuel and Eligah Mitchell injured they could struggle in this one.

Lions @ Broncos (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Giants @ Chargers (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

49ers @ Bengals (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Bills @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Sunday Night Football:

Bears @ Packers (-12.5)

This should be a marquee game, except the Bears have struggled all season and the Packers have only looked bad when Roders was out through Covid, although they did drop a game against the Vikings in week eleven. Still, coming off a bye with Rodgers talking about his toe feeling better it is hard to see anything other than a Packers win in this one, although whether it will be by thirteen is a different matter.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Monday Night Football

Rams @ Cardinals (-2.5)

This is one of the matchups of the week and I’m just hoping I can find time to watch it at some point. That said, I’m not convinced that the Rams will silence their critics this week given their only win in four games was against the Jaguars last week. The Cardinals may still have questions about what they can do in the playoffs, but with a 10-2 record despite missing their starting quarterback for three weeks they are definitely a team to take seriously. A top three defence under Vance Joseph has every chance of causing problems for a Rams’ offence that hasn’t looked right until it faced the Jaguars, so I see the Cardinals as favourites in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Week fourteen did not get off to the best of starts for me as my difficulties in picking the Thursday night game between the Rams and Patriots were exposed as foolish when the Rams thoroughly beat the Patriots. So, having gifted a point back to Dan in terms of our season contest I have to have a good Sunday and Monday so let’s get to the game.

Early Games:

There are three games that shout off the list of the early games to me. The first is one of the matchups of the week for both Dan and I that sees the Miami Dolphins hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins defense is just outside of the top ten by DVOA but has looked good in recent weeks as Flores and his staff have taken elements from the Patriots and welded it to excellent special teams and good enough offence. I don’t know if this formula will be enough to beat the Chiefs, but this is a team that has lost only one of their last eight games. The Chiefs are only ranked fourth overall by DVOA despite their league leading offence, which seems to always have the answer at the end of the game thanks to the combination of quarterback Patrick Mahomes, head coach Andy Reid and coordinator Eric Bieniemy. There are some who are asking questions about the rest of the Chiefs team and if they have what it takes to repeat their trip to the Super Bowl, but it’s hard to argue with an 11-1 record and I’m certainly looking forward to watching this game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went into their bye week if not in disarray then definitely facing problems having lost three of their last four games including their last two by a field goal. The Bucs host a Minnesota Vikings team who may only be one win behind in the standing but are very much in the hunt for a wildcard spot. If the Bucs have faltered in recent weeks, the Vikings are coming into form having won five of their last six games, although the loss was against the Cowboy. Partly this resurgence is due to the return of Dalvin Cook from injury, which helped the offence find its identity, but the defense is currently top ten by DVOA despite a huge amount of turnover in the secondary, although their special teams is a surprising thirty-first. It feels like the Bucs should be doing better with their sixth ranked offence by DVOA and fourth ranked defense, but things are not quite coming together for them and the concern is that there are not many weeks to get right. I think this should be a competitive game and everyone will be watching to see if the Bucs can push on from their bye week so I am surprised to see the points the Bucs are laying six and half points, even if the consensus sees the Bucs laying a touchdown.

The final game that stands out in the early slate does so as much about the stakes of the game as the quality of the contest. The New York Giants may only have a 5-7 record, but they have won four straight and are coming off their best of the season having beaten the Seahawks in Seattle with a great defensive performance. This week they face an Arizona Cardinals team who have been struggling for several weeks and last won a game in week ten. No one seems to know for sure, but many are speculating that Kyler Murray is dealing with an injury and what is for certain is that he is not running the ball like he was earlier in the season and this seems to have really hurt their offence. Both teams really need to win this game to maintain their chances of making the play-offs but with the way these two teams are trending it is a surprise to me that the Giants are getting points at home.

Points from the rest:

• The Chicago Bears have had such a Jekyll and Hide season, starting off 5-1 before the problems on offence could be overcome no longer, then losing six games in a row. The Texans lost their first four games, which in fairness was a brutal stretch of opponents but they are the exact opposite of the Bears in that Deshaun Watson is absolutely a franchise quarterback and the Bears are yet again looking for one. Neither team are going to trouble the play-offs this season but the team with the worse record may in fact have the easier path back to being competitive but I’m really not sure which one I actually want to pick.
• Then Cincinnati Bengals are not a good football team, but they might win this game because neither are the Dallas Cowboys, and it is somewhat ironic that Andy Dalton is clearly the best quarterback in this game. I think it is more likely that Dalton gets his revenge win than does not.
• It is interesting that the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos have the same record as I have felt much more positive about the direction the Panthers are heading in, but with this week’s Covid-19 outbreak I wonder how the Panthers will fare against the Broncos.
• I think that the Jacksonville Jaguars have looked better in the last couple of weeks with Mike Glennon at quarterback, but this has not resulted in wins and they will likely be starting next season with a new young quarterback. I don’t expect them to beat a Tennessee Titans team who still hold a share of the lead of the AFC South, but I just have an inkling this game will be closer than this line suggests.

Texans @ Bears (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Cowboys @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Broncos @ Panthers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Titans @ Jaguars (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Chiefs @ Dolphins (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Vikings @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Cardinals @ Giants (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Late Games:

It is a slightly underwhelming late slate of the games, certainly for close games with play-off stakes but I will work my way through the two that I think are worth discussing.

The Washington Football Team are in Arizona to take on the San Francisco 49ers in their second home game at the Cardinals’ stadium. There has been plenty of discussion of how important this game is to Kyle Shanahan given how Washington’s owner Dan Snyder treated Shanahan and his dad when they worked for him. This meeting of 5-7 teams does have play-off significance thanks to the state of the NFC East and Washington are coming off their best win of the season having beaten the Steelers last week. I don’t know whether they can extend their three-game winning streak, but this is a game where the stakes are raised for both teams and with how competitive the 49ers have been despite their injuries I think this could well be a good one to watch;

The other game that catches the eye a little is the New Orleans Saints taking on the Philadelphia Eagles in a matchup that is interesting because of the two quarterbacks involved. The Saints have won three straight games with Taysom Hill starting at quarterback in the absence of Drew Brees and having thrown his first passing touchdown last week, the Saints and Hill take on an Eagles team in disarray who have turned to rookie Jalen Hurts to start at quarterback. The 3-8-1 Eagles have not won a game since week eight and their only win against a team outside of the NFC East came against the 49ers in week four. With the way the Saints’ defense is playing I don’t think the Eagles will do much better against the Saints with Hurts starting, particularly given his problems throwing the ball in college, but I do think it will be interesting to see and contrast the two quarterbacks in this game.

Points on the Rest:

• The Las Vegas Raiders have fallen back in recent weeks and can’t be relied upon. The Colts have their own problems with the injury to Philip Rivers’ toe combined with a backup getting the start at left tackle, but I think they are more reliable. This is likely the cue for the Raiders to get back to winning ways…
• The Seattle Seahawks will be looking to bounce back from their loss to the Giant last week and I do expect them to beat the New York Jets, but the Jets have been competitive in the last few weeks and so I think this line is too high, even if the consensus line is even higher.
• The LA Chargers were beaten by forty-five points last week and Anthony Lynn is taking over special teams after last week’s fiascos, but whether that is enough to get back to winning ways remains to be seen. The Chargers take on a Falcons team who have at least been competitive since Raheem Moris became interim head coach and I think they are favourites for a reason, even if the line does give me pause.
• The Detroit Lions got a win last week after the firing of Matt Patricia, but the Green Bay Packers are a much different prospect to facing the Bears and that is why the line is so high, which is hard to argue with, particularly as the consensus line is even higher.

Colts @ Raiders (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Jets @ Seahawks (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Falcons @ Chargers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Packers @ Lions (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Saints @ Eagles (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Washington @ 49ers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Sunday Night Football:

Steelers @ Bills (-2.5)

The Sunday Night football game is a cracker this week that sees the Buffalo Bills hosting the 11-1 Pittsburgh Steelers. There have been plenty of questions surrounding the Steelers in recent weeks, both because their running game is just not functioning, so they are relying on Ben Roethlisberger to throw short passes and get the ball out of his hands to win game, and that the Steelers have continued to pick up injuries to their linebackers. The Bills meanwhile got a stellar game from Josh Allen last week and their top ten by DVOA offense and special teams is now getting some support from a defense who has dragged themselves back up to a reasonably average rank of sixteenth. This is one of those games where the absence of fans is going to be sorely missed and I like the Bills to win this game given the increasing number of problems the Steelers are facing. You must respect any team who have an 11-1 record, but if you look at the Steelers schedule this is their toughest opponent since the Titans in week seven and very possibly the best team they will face in the regular season. I like the Bills to win this game, but Mike Tomlin is a really good coach, and it wouldn’t exactly be a surprise if the Steelers do get the road win.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Monday Night Football

Ravens @ Browns (+1.5)

The Cleveland Browns are hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night with a two-game lead over them the AFC North and the joint second-best record in the AFC. The Browns switched their game plan last week and attacked the Titans through the air as Kevin Stefanski continues to impress in his first season as a head coach. It does feel like the Browns have had a real change in their identity under the new regime and this contrasts favourably to a Ravens team who look to have taken a step back from the previous year. The problems with the offence still seem to be haunting the Ravens, although at least Lamar Jackson looked more like himself last week but that was against the struggling Cowboys. I have a lot of respect for the Ravens as a franchise, but it does feel odd that they are laying points on the road given their recent record, but this is a genuine test of whether the Browns are as good as their record suggests or if this is only the first step in their development. Still, I have no doubt that this will be a closer game than their first meeting in week one and should be a cracking way to end week fourteen.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.