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2021 Week Fourteen Picks

12 Sunday Dec 2021

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Well, both Dan and I took losses on Thursday, although with the Steelers remarkable comeback we had the chance of the cover despite Mike Tomlin’s team being 29-0 down until 2:11 in the third quarter. It can’t be fun being a fan of the Vikings this season.

I have also given Dan and I a Mulligan on the survivor picks this week given we both selected the Chargers before the news broke about the extent of the Covid-19 break out in their receiver room. Dan is now going against the Texans by taking Seattle, whilst I’m backing the Packers to beat the Bears given Aaron Rodgers’ ownership of the Bears. I just hope that quote and this pick doesn’t come back to bite me.

Dan:     Seahawks
Gee:     Packers

Early Games:

There’s a couple of big divisional games in the early slate and it’s one of them that I’m picking, although if you like bruising competitive football you could do a lot works that watch the Ravens taking on the Browns, but I have settled on the Cowboys travelling to Washington to take on the Football Team. The Cowboys are taking on a team who have won their last four games coming off their bye, whilst the Cowboys have gone 2-3 in the last five, though have had some injury/Covid-19 problems in this stretch. If the Cowboys are the team that we thought they were early in the season, they need to win this game to extend their lead at the top of the division. The truth is that whilst I have been impressed with the way Washington have found their feet since their bye, I have more faith in Dak Prescott to find a way through the Football Team’s defence than Taylor Heinicke not to have a turnover or two against an opportunistic Cowboys defence.

Points from the rest:

  • The Ravens’ injuries meet the Browns’s in what feels like it could be an absolute mess of a game. It’s certainly odd to see the Ravens ranked as lowly as sixteenth overall by DVOA but the Browns are only ranked two places higher and have distinctly whelmed this season.
  • You know it is bad when the league’s own website is carrying a story about the disfunction of your team. The Titans have a bunch of injuries and may well have problems covering this line, but it would be a genuine surprise if they lost to the Jaguars.
  • Divisional games are funny things, and I am still not convinced by the Chiefs’ offence, but their defence genuinely have found their feet and the Raiders insisted on playing the wrong defence the last time these two teams met and it’s hard to see Gus Bradley changing it up this time so whilst hesitant, I think the Chiefs may cover this one.
  • The Saints are so injured on offence, but the Jets have so far to go before they will be truly competitive, and the Saints have a really good defence so that’s where I’m inclined to pick in this one.
  • I’m not sure what to expect from the Panthers after the firing of Joe Brady, and the Falcons have been at least competitive so far this season so it’s hard to find a side in what is a meeting of two bad teams that is strangely intriguing as a watch.
  • The Seahawks still have a lot of problems, and it feels like there will big changes in the off-season, but the Texans are just plain bad and it feels like they are not even finding young players to build around for the future.

Ravens @ Browns (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Jaguars @ Titans (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Raiders @ Chiefs (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Saints @ Jets (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Cowboys @ Washington (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Seahawks @ Texans (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Late Games:

The big game from the slate game must be the Bills trying to get over the tough loss to the Patriots on Monday by taking on the Buccaneers in Tampa. The absence of a Bills run game will be less of an issue against a defence that is one of the toughest to run against in the league and perhaps the bigger test will be the Bills defence going against Tom Brady on the road without corner Tre’Davious White who was lost for the season in week twelve. This was meant to be the year the Bills took the next step and instead they find themselves two games behind a Patriots team resurgent in 2021 despite a bad start to the season. The Bills have not had a marquee win since beating the Chiefs in week five and need a performance to settle the nerves and give themselves a platform to build on with their crucial return visit to New England in week sixteen on the horizon.

Points on the Rest:

  • The Broncos should beat the Lions as they have for the most part beaten the teams they should do and are at home, but there are plenty of questions around the Broncos as they still have not found a franchise quarterback and who knows how the Lions will respond to their first win of the season.
  • The Chargers will just be happy to get a win against the Giants given the issues they are having at receiver thanks to a Covid-19 outbreak. The Giants have been competitive at times this season, but it feels like they will be going into the offseason with more questions than answers after second year head coach Joe Judge struggled to build on some glimpses of hope from last season.
  • The Bengals had enough bad turnover luck last week that I am not freaking out about their loss to the Chargers, but the 49ers are not an easy team to beat and I don’t think any Bengals fan will feel relaxed about Joe Burrow’s hand problem until he’s got through the game looking good, even if he did nearly pull of the comeback last week with his hand swelling after the dislocation of his little finger. The 49ers are a strange team to pick this season and with Deebo Samuel and Eligah Mitchell injured they could struggle in this one.

Lions @ Broncos (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Giants @ Chargers (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

49ers @ Bengals (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Bills @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Sunday Night Football:

Bears @ Packers (-12.5)

This should be a marquee game, except the Bears have struggled all season and the Packers have only looked bad when Roders was out through Covid, although they did drop a game against the Vikings in week eleven. Still, coming off a bye with Rodgers talking about his toe feeling better it is hard to see anything other than a Packers win in this one, although whether it will be by thirteen is a different matter.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Monday Night Football

Rams @ Cardinals (-2.5)

This is one of the matchups of the week and I’m just hoping I can find time to watch it at some point. That said, I’m not convinced that the Rams will silence their critics this week given their only win in four games was against the Jaguars last week. The Cardinals may still have questions about what they can do in the playoffs, but with a 10-2 record despite missing their starting quarterback for three weeks they are definitely a team to take seriously. A top three defence under Vance Joseph has every chance of causing problems for a Rams’ offence that hasn’t looked right until it faced the Jaguars, so I see the Cardinals as favourites in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

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Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Fourteen

09 Thursday Dec 2021

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I finally put together a strong week of picks and so was able to scramble a couple of points back from Dan, but it is getting to the business end of the season and I’m still three points behind so let’s see how the next couple of weeks go.

Gee:Week 13:  10 – 4Overall:  101 – 93
Dan:Week 13:  8 – 8Overall:  104 – 90

Steelers @ Vikings (-3.5)

I am definitely intrigued by tonight’s game as the Vikings seem to be stuck in a recurring nightmare of close losses and wins, while the Steelers feel like they are in a very similar place. I don’t have a strong feel for how this game will work out and I could be horribly wrong, but to me this line is off thanks to being over the key number of three so even though I don’t have a strong inclination for how this matchup will play out on the field, I am very happy to pick the Steelers. That just leaves me to watch the game without worrying if my analysis was right and I think it should be a pretty entertaining game too.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Survivor Competition

I am afraid Dan got eliminated again last week off the back of the Lions first win of the season, and this isn’t even the first time the Lions eliminated Dan despite only having one win on the board. He is also running out of weeks to catch me so can ill afford another slip up as the Colts kept me going with their routine looking win against the Texans on Sunday.

This week, I am going to be taking the Chargers as they are hosting the Giants and by coincidence so is Dan, although we are running out of teams at this point of the season.

Current Score

Gee: 9
Dan: 5

Week 14 Selection:

Gee:    Chargers
Dan:    Chargers

Bold Prediction

I completely understood why Dan vetoed my tentative suggestion of the Falcons to beat the Panthers as not being bold enough, but I’m not sure if last week’s results had an undue influence on me suggesting the Lions will be within three of the Broncos this weekend, but that’s what I went with on the pod so I just have to will it to be true I suppose.

2020 Week Fourteen Picks

13 Sunday Dec 2020

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Week fourteen did not get off to the best of starts for me as my difficulties in picking the Thursday night game between the Rams and Patriots were exposed as foolish when the Rams thoroughly beat the Patriots. So, having gifted a point back to Dan in terms of our season contest I have to have a good Sunday and Monday so let’s get to the game.

Early Games:

There are three games that shout off the list of the early games to me. The first is one of the matchups of the week for both Dan and I that sees the Miami Dolphins hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins defense is just outside of the top ten by DVOA but has looked good in recent weeks as Flores and his staff have taken elements from the Patriots and welded it to excellent special teams and good enough offence. I don’t know if this formula will be enough to beat the Chiefs, but this is a team that has lost only one of their last eight games. The Chiefs are only ranked fourth overall by DVOA despite their league leading offence, which seems to always have the answer at the end of the game thanks to the combination of quarterback Patrick Mahomes, head coach Andy Reid and coordinator Eric Bieniemy. There are some who are asking questions about the rest of the Chiefs team and if they have what it takes to repeat their trip to the Super Bowl, but it’s hard to argue with an 11-1 record and I’m certainly looking forward to watching this game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went into their bye week if not in disarray then definitely facing problems having lost three of their last four games including their last two by a field goal. The Bucs host a Minnesota Vikings team who may only be one win behind in the standing but are very much in the hunt for a wildcard spot. If the Bucs have faltered in recent weeks, the Vikings are coming into form having won five of their last six games, although the loss was against the Cowboy. Partly this resurgence is due to the return of Dalvin Cook from injury, which helped the offence find its identity, but the defense is currently top ten by DVOA despite a huge amount of turnover in the secondary, although their special teams is a surprising thirty-first. It feels like the Bucs should be doing better with their sixth ranked offence by DVOA and fourth ranked defense, but things are not quite coming together for them and the concern is that there are not many weeks to get right. I think this should be a competitive game and everyone will be watching to see if the Bucs can push on from their bye week so I am surprised to see the points the Bucs are laying six and half points, even if the consensus sees the Bucs laying a touchdown.

The final game that stands out in the early slate does so as much about the stakes of the game as the quality of the contest. The New York Giants may only have a 5-7 record, but they have won four straight and are coming off their best of the season having beaten the Seahawks in Seattle with a great defensive performance. This week they face an Arizona Cardinals team who have been struggling for several weeks and last won a game in week ten. No one seems to know for sure, but many are speculating that Kyler Murray is dealing with an injury and what is for certain is that he is not running the ball like he was earlier in the season and this seems to have really hurt their offence. Both teams really need to win this game to maintain their chances of making the play-offs but with the way these two teams are trending it is a surprise to me that the Giants are getting points at home.

Points from the rest:

  • The Chicago Bears have had such a Jekyll and Hide season, starting off 5-1 before the problems on offence could be overcome no longer, then losing six games in a row. The Texans lost their first four games, which in fairness was a brutal stretch of opponents but they are the exact opposite of the Bears in that Deshaun Watson is absolutely a franchise quarterback and the Bears are yet again looking for one. Neither team are going to trouble the play-offs this season but the team with the worse record may in fact have the easier path back to being competitive but I’m really not sure which one I actually want to pick.
  • Then Cincinnati Bengals are not a good football team, but they might win this game because neither are the Dallas Cowboys, and it is somewhat ironic that Andy Dalton is clearly the best quarterback in this game. I think it is more likely that Dalton gets his revenge win than does not.
  • It is interesting that the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos have the same record as I have felt much more positive about the direction the Panthers are heading in, but with this week’s Covid-19 outbreak I wonder how the Panthers will fare against the Broncos.
  • I think that the Jacksonville Jaguars have looked better in the last couple of weeks with Mike Glennon at quarterback, but this has not resulted in wins and they will likely be starting next season with a new young quarterback. I don’t expect them to beat a Tennessee Titans team who still hold a share of the lead of the AFC South, but I just have an inkling this game will be closer than this line suggests.

Texans @ Bears (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Cowboys @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Broncos @ Panthers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Titans @ Jaguars (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Chiefs @ Dolphins (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Vikings @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Cardinals @ Giants (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Late Games:

It is a slightly underwhelming late slate of the games, certainly for close games with play-off stakes but I will work my way through the two that I think are worth discussing.

The Washington Football Team are in Arizona to take on the San Francisco 49ers in their second home game at the Cardinals’ stadium. There has been plenty of discussion of how important this game is to Kyle Shanahan given how Washington’s owner Dan Snyder treated Shanahan and his dad when they worked for him. This meeting of 5-7 teams does have play-off significance thanks to the state of the NFC East and Washington are coming off their best win of the season having beaten the Steelers last week. I don’t know whether they can extend their three-game winning streak, but this is a game where the stakes are raised for both teams and with how competitive the 49ers have been despite their injuries I think this could well be a good one to watch;

The other game that catches the eye a little is the New Orleans Saints taking on the Philadelphia Eagles in a matchup that is interesting because of the two quarterbacks involved. The Saints have won three straight games with Taysom Hill starting at quarterback in the absence of Drew Brees and having thrown his first passing touchdown last week, the Saints and Hill take on an Eagles team in disarray who have turned to rookie Jalen Hurts to start at quarterback. The 3-8-1 Eagles have not won a game since week eight and their only win against a team outside of the NFC East came against the 49ers in week four. With the way the Saints’ defense is playing I don’t think the Eagles will do much better against the Saints with Hurts starting, particularly given his problems throwing the ball in college, but I do think it will be interesting to see and contrast the two quarterbacks in this game.

Points on the Rest:

  • The Las Vegas Raiders have fallen back in recent weeks and can’t be relied upon. The Colts have their own problems with the injury to Philip Rivers’ toe combined with a backup getting the start at left tackle, but I think they are more reliable. This is likely the cue for the Raiders to get back to winning ways…
  • The Seattle Seahawks will be looking to bounce back from their loss to the Giant last week and I do expect them to beat the New York Jets, but the Jets have been competitive in the last few weeks and so I think this line is too high, even if the consensus line is even higher.
  • The LA Chargers were beaten by forty-five points last week and Anthony Lynn is taking over special teams after last week’s fiascos, but whether that is enough to get back to winning ways remains to be seen. The Chargers take on a Falcons team who have at least been competitive since Raheem Moris became interim head coach and I think they are favourites for a reason, even if the line does give me pause.
  • The Detroit Lions got a win last week after the firing of Matt Patricia, but the Green Bay Packers are a much different prospect to facing the Bears and that is why the line is so high, which is hard to argue with, particularly as the consensus line is even higher.

Colts @ Raiders (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Jets @ Seahawks (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Falcons @ Chargers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Packers @ Lions (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Saints @ Eagles (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Washington @ 49ers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Sunday Night Football:

Steelers @ Bills (-2.5)

The Sunday Night football game is a cracker this week that sees the Buffalo Bills hosting the 11-1 Pittsburgh Steelers. There have been plenty of questions surrounding the Steelers in recent weeks, both because their running game is just not functioning, so they are relying on Ben Roethlisberger to throw short passes and get the ball out of his hands to win game, and that the Steelers have continued to pick up injuries to their linebackers. The Bills meanwhile got a stellar game from Josh Allen last week and their top ten by DVOA offense and special teams is now getting some support from a defense who has dragged themselves back up to a reasonably average rank of sixteenth. This is one of those games where the absence of fans is going to be sorely missed and I like the Bills to win this game given the increasing number of problems the Steelers are facing. You must respect any team who have an 11-1 record, but if you look at the Steelers schedule this is their toughest opponent since the Titans in week seven and very possibly the best team they will face in the regular season. I like the Bills to win this game, but Mike Tomlin is a really good coach, and it wouldn’t exactly be a surprise if the Steelers do get the road win.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Monday Night Football

Ravens @ Browns (+1.5)

The Cleveland Browns are hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night with a two-game lead over them the AFC North and the joint second-best record in the AFC. The Browns switched their game plan last week and attacked the Titans through the air as Kevin Stefanski continues to impress in his first season as a head coach. It does feel like the Browns have had a real change in their identity under the new regime and this contrasts favourably to a Ravens team who look to have taken a step back from the previous year. The problems with the offence still seem to be haunting the Ravens, although at least Lamar Jackson looked more like himself last week but that was against the struggling Cowboys. I have a lot of respect for the Ravens as a franchise, but it does feel odd that they are laying points on the road given their recent record, but this is a genuine test of whether the Browns are as good as their record suggests or if this is only the first step in their development. Still, I have no doubt that this will be a closer game than their first meeting in week one and should be a cracking way to end week fourteen.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Fourteen

10 Thursday Dec 2020

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I had a good week thirteen and so closed the gap to seven in the picks competition, but I need to somehow keep the pressure up on Dan as right now he is in primed to sweep both the Survivor and the Picks competitions, as well as having the best record in the dynasty league. Given how well the Dolphins are doing it seems everything in the NFL world is going well for Dan.

Gee:Week 14:  10 – 5Overall:  93 – 100
Dan:Week 14:  7 – 8Overall:  100 – 93

Patriots @ Rams (-5.5)

This is a tricky game for me as this line is right between two of my numbers so one system suggests picking the Patriots, and the other suggests the Rams should just cover. I’m also trying not to second guess myself as Dan sent me his pick at lunchtime before I had a chance to go through my process. Frustratingly, the only time Sean McVay has faced the Patriots and Bill Belichick is in the Super Bowl, where a really good Pats defence very much got the better of Jared Goff. We have already seen the 49ers best Goff this year so there is a chance that the Pats can do this again, except this is a different defence and it’s hard to trust the Pats this season even if they have won four out of their last five games. In the end, I am going to trust the numbers that are 97-63 over the course of the season and ignore any secondary thoughts so I am going to go for the Pats. I am really looking forward to watching this game tomorrow, but the pick is going to bug me all the way through.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Survivor Competition

Another week of consistent scoring saw Dan maintain his one-point lead over me in the survivor competition as his pick of the Chiefs over the Broncos held up as did mine of picking against the Jets with the Raiders, although only just thanks to Gregg Williams calling a cover-zero-blitz with seconds left protecting a lead. This week Dan is going against the Jaguars by selecting the Titans. That is the most promising selection when I look at the schedule, but I’m trying not to follow Dan so there are two options I’m considering, I can’t think that the Bengals will beat the Cowboys but that’s a bit of risky one so I’m going to settle for Saints visiting the Philadelphia Eagles.

Current Score

Gee: 10
Dan: 9

Week 14 Selection:

Gee:     Saints
Dan:    Titans

Bold Prediction of the Week

So I wasn’t sure what Dan would allow as bold this week so I went into the bod recording with three options and finished the segment with two left standing, which are:

  1. The New York Giants will beat the Arizona Cardinals
  2. The Miami Dolphins will cover getting seven and a half points against the Kansas City Chiefs

2109 Week Fourteen Picks

08 Sunday Dec 2019

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I am still annoyed about Thursday Night’s pick because if Dan and I have learnt anything about picking games in the last five years, it is that your first instinct is always better than changing your mind. Now, that is totally un-scientific and could even be wrong and some kind of confirmation bias, but it is yet another thing to account for when picking games. Yes we’re getting to the end of the regular season and yes, I am pretty competitive so first the trivia question and then the picks as I’m running out of time to catch up.

‘Prior to moving to Indianapolis in 1984, what city did the Colts call home?’

I know this one as the Baltimore Colts were famously taken to Indianapolis, but the Colts’ marching band stayed together and played on until the original Cleveland Browns franchise was moved to Baltimore to became the Ravens.

‘Not happy at dropping 2 points last week, and I think Gee will know this one too as it’s quite an easy one. Instantly knew the answer this week – the Colts moved from Baltimore to Indianapolis, and were replaced by the Ravens in the mid 90s and impressively won the super bowl within about 4 or 5 years! I look forward to receiving my bonus points for all of that!’
Panthers @ Falcons (-2.5)

The Carolina Panthers let go of head coach Ron Rivera this week and there is often a new coach bounce, but not as pronounced as in other sports as you can’t overhaul an American football team in the same way you can a football team as to a large extent you are tied to your playbook and personnel. Why do I mention this, because I don’t know what to do with this game. The Atlanta Falcons had a brief two week recovery but have lost two further games to fall to 3-9 but the Panthers’ current four game losing streak that includes last week’s loss to Washington was the last straw for David Tepper and why Rivera list his job. One of these losing streaks is likely to give and the Falcons are actually the better ranked team by DVOA, the points make me nervous but in a divisional game I’m going to reluctantly grab the home team but who knows…

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons
Ravens @ Bills (+5.5)

This is my matchup of the week as the Buffalo Bills and their sixth ranked defence by DVOA welcomes the Baltimore Ravens who currently head up the DVOA rankings and look like the best team in the NFL. I am really looking forward to this game and the Ravens can put up points against anyone but the Bills are 9-3 for a reason and whilst I think the Ravens are more likely to win, I like getting this many points at home as the Bills defence is really good.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Ravens
Bengals @ Browns (-8.5)

I’m not getting carried away by last week’s win for the Cincinnati Bengals, and this week they are on the road taking on the Cleveland Browns, but this is a lot of points for a 5-7 team to be laying when possibly the only thing we know about the Browns is they can’t be trusted. The Browns absolutely have the talent to cover this line and may well do so but I’m not picking it.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals
Broncos @ Texans (-9.5)

The Denver Broncos were a little lucky to beat the Chargers last week and now travel to face the Houston Texans coming off a win against the Patriots. I like the Texans to win this game as they are the better team by eye test and DVOA but this line makes me nervous. The Texans have a top ten offence by DVOA but their defence ranks twenty-fifth, whilst the Broncos have damn near the reverse offensive/defensive rankings and have lost four games by ten points. I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Texans
Lions @ Vikings (-13.5)

The Detroit Lions have lost five straight and may have extra rest having played on Thanksgiving, but a road trip to the Minnesota Vikings is not the kind of game to get right when you’re starting quarterback is still recovering from an injury. This is a lot of points, but the Vikings still have a good home field advantage and even missing Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook hurting his shoulder last week, I’m going to back them in this one and hope I’m not misjudging these teams.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Lions
Washington @ Packers (-12.5)

I imagine this line is based in part on the Green Bay Packers big win against the Giants last week, but whilst the franchise is still a mess, Washington come into this game on a two-game winning streak. I’m not expecting an upset but the Packers have only covered this size line twice this season and I think Washington can keep the game close.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington
Colts @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

I hate this line and game from a picks perspective as these two teams are next to each other in the DVOA rankings with the Indianapolis Colts struggling the last few weeks thanks to injury and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers playing inconsistently all season but have won three of their last four games. I don’t have a strong read on this game at all and so I’m going to grab the team I trust a little more, but I have no idea if this is a good idea.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts
Dolphins @ Jets (-5.5)

The New York Jets lost to the Bengals last week and looked bad doing it as the injuries finally became too much. I don’t entirely trust my gut on this, but Brian Flores is definitely a good coach having got three wins with a team that ranks dead last in DVOA and a fair way behind the Bengals in thirty-first place. I think this is too many points for a team who just lost to the Bengals to be laying and so I’m going to pick the Dolphins for another week.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins
49ers @ Saints (-2.5)

This is a cracking game that pits two of the best NFC teams together and it’s a tricky one to pick as the San Francisco 49ers have won with a ferocious defence and enough offence. The Saints have a really good, well coached team and have the better quarterback but I think the 49ers might be better and getting this many points I’m going to grab them and hope.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Saints
Chargers @ Jaguars (+2.5)

I have no idea about this game as the LA Chargers continue to struggle and Philip Rivers look bad, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have no real identity and are going back to rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew as Nick Foles failed to give them a spark after coming back from injury. The Chargers are the experts in close losses and whilst I can definitely see them winning this one, I’m going to grab the home team getting points even if what I want to do is run a mile from picking this game.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Chargers
Titans @ Raiders (+2.5)

I might be overreacting to the two-game losing streak of the Oakland Raiders and the turn around of the Tennessee Titans since putting Ryan Tannehill in the starting lineup, but I think the Titans are the better team. The DVOA rankings agree with me and the this line is more advantageous than the ESPN one so I’m going to go with the Titans. Watch the Raiders win this one now…

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans
Chiefs @ Patriots (-3.5)

The New England Patriots were fighting illness as well as playing the Texans last week, but one of the safer picks in the NFL is the Patriots coming off a loss. However, there are real problems with the Pats’ offence so I wonder how the Pats as a team keeps up with a Kansas City Chiefs team that has Patrick Mahomes back from injury and playing well. This could well be a big mistake as the Pats defence is playing really well too, and the Chiefs defence is only ranked fifteenth by DVOA but this is one where I’m going to trust my gut rather than second guess myself and I just hope that betting against Belichick and Brady isn’t going to look too foolish tomorrow.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Patriots
Steelers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are winning with tough defence and rookie quarterback Devlin “Duck” Hodges. They travel to face an Arizona Cardinals team who have now lost five straight. I’m not sure if the Steelers can make the playoffs as barring a big fall off from the Bills there looks to be only one wildcard spot left open in the AFC but I think the Steelers believe they can get there and I think despite their offensive struggles they cover this line.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers
Seahawks @ Rams (+1.5)

The LA Rams got back to winning ways last week with a convincing performance against the Arizona Cardinals but I still don’t trust them. The defence may well be third in the league by DVOA, but the problems have not been solved on offence and the Seattle Seahawks have three more wins for a reason. Divisional games can be funny and so I’m not rulling out the Rams cover or win, but I think there is a real gap between these teams and it would take more points than this to make me pick the other way.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks
Giants @ Eagles (-8.5)

This used to be one of the marquee matchups in the NFL, but not this year. It has been a while since the New York Giants were anything but bad, and this week injury has forced them back into starting Eli Manning and whilst he has handled his benching with class, it has been a several seaons since he has been a good quarterback. That said, the Philadelphia Eagles have not been good this season either, but interestingly are ranked tenth by DVOA and so this line is actually causing me problems. I would be surprised if the Giants won, even if the Eagles have lost three straight and we have to go back to week eight for a convincing win for the Eagles. However, whilst the line is big, it is actually a full point less than I’m seeing online and I just can’t trust the Giants.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Ealges

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Fourteen

05 Thursday Dec 2019

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I kept station with 3D last week, but there’s still seven points between us, although Dan has come back to me a little. It’s not too late to make up the points, but there’s only four weeks to do it so if it is going to turn round it needs to be soon.

Dan’s Dad: Week 13:   10-6 Overall:   107-85
Dan: Week 13:   8-8 Overall:   102-90
Gee: Week 13:   10-6 Overall:   100-92

Cowboys @ Bears (+2.5)

This is a tricky pick for me as the Dallas Cowboys are struggling right now, they have fallen back to 6-6 and are on the road playing in a cold and windy Chicago. The Bears have actually won three of their last four and so have fought back to 6-6, but there is still a 19.3% difference between them in overall DVOA. I like the idea of getting points as the home team on a short week, only both teams have had a full week to prepare after playing on Thanksgiving and this number is actually slightly better for the Cowboys than the consensus number I’m seeing. I don’t like either coach but tracking the ESPN number against a consensus number is working better than me second guessing lines so until I get to do the full spreadsheet I had planned in the off-season (but never quite got to) I’m going to use the number comparison system that has me beat by win percentage so far this season.

Gee’s Pick:     Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:     Cowboys

Week 9 Trivia

‘Timing is, they say, everything and football is no exception, particularly at this point in a season. It’s about now that the playoff picture is becoming clearer and that can change the motivation for each team. Some will be keenly preparing for post-season while others whose ship has sailed will be thinking of rebuilding and positioning themselves for next season. I know which group I’d prefer to be in but as so often is the case for the Vikings high hopes can be dashed at the last moment.

I expected the game at the Seahawks to be close and so it was with the Vikes building a first half lead only to see it more than wiped out in the third quarter. Despite a better forth quarter and it still being in the balance at the 2 minute warning, the timing just wasn’t right and salt was applied to the wound with a late field goal.

The result was that having levelled up with the Packers last week, Minnesota once again fell 1 game behind making the last 4 games crucial, particularly the divisional match ups. But I’ve travelled this path before and my gut feel is that once again the Vikes are looking at a wild card berth – unless the Packers really go off the boil.

What is most definitely bubbling are the trivia quiz and the Picks competition. Gee’s picks came through last week and while Dan picked up the pace again, with just 7 points covering us all this is going to be an interesting home stretch.

For last week’s trivia I asked:

In 2002 The Texans became only the 2nd expansion team to win its inaugural game. Against whom?

Dan spotted the nudge about time zones and went for Tennessee while Gee picked the Cowboys. Both good guesses and earning himself 2 points to leave him just 1 point behind on 13 – 14 is Gee. The Texans ran out winners 19-10 in a Home game at the Reliant Stadium – and if you are interested the first winners of their inaugural game was Minnesota in 1961,

This week the train rolls into Indianapolis and the question is simply:

Prior to moving to Indianapolis in 1984, what city did the Colts call home?

This is getting tight again, but we have several more weeks to go before the Superbowl. Bring it on’

Week Fourteen Picks

09 Sunday Dec 2018

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As winter closes in so does the NFL regular season, leaving us with fewer games and less daylight and with that in mind I shall try to get through these picks quick enough to get what I need to done during daylight finished, so on to picks and first this week’s trivia question. I should mention that Dan is sticking to his decision to pick against his instincts this week despite this failing on Thursday.

‘Which team ended last season with 5 straight wins having starting it 1-10?’

I’m pretty damn certain about this question as I remember this being a thing and me writing about Jimmy Garoppolo having an unbeaten record at the start of this season. That may not have lasted, but the answer is the San Francisco 49ers.

‘Easy one this week – I suppose they can’t all be ridiculously difficult every week! The answer is the San Francisco 49ers whose season was seemingly saved by the introduction of Jimmy G from the Patriots!’

Falcons @ Packers (-5.5)

So this week’s picks start with a strange line given that the Atlanta Falcons have managed very little this season and for some that is to do with more than just the injuries that have plagued them. This week they face a Green Bay Packers team who just fired their coach for the ignominy of losing to the now three win Arizona Cardinals. Last week’s loss was the first of the season at Lambeau Field and it seems reasonable to expect a reaction but is it enough to cover this large a line. It seems dangerous to pick it to happen after last week’s loss but I do not trust Matt Ryan outside of a dome, and in a cold Green Bay I have a number close to this one and so swinging for the fences I’m going with the Packers bouncing back.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Jets @ Bills (-3.5)

This a horrible line as neither team exactly inspires confidence and though I may well lean towards the Bills, the New York Jets actually rank a little better by overall DVOA but they haven’t even been losing productively given that Sam Darnold has missed the last three games through injury. I don’t necessary like it, but I’m going to back the home team and hope that extra half point doesn’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:       Jets

Panthers @ Browns (+1.5)

I really don’t know what to make of a Carolina Panthers team who have now lost four in a row and there are talks of Cam Newton having shoulder soreness. They may not be completely out of the playoff race now, but they can ill afford to lose against a Cleveland Browns team who lost pretty soundly against the Texans last week. The Panthers are still ranked better than the Browns but home underdogs are often pretty tempting and the Panthers are a pretty woeful 1-5 on the road. I’m hesitating on this one, which is never good so I’ll grab the points for the home team going against a poor road team and hope the Panthers don’t suddenly turn things round.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Colts @ Texans (-4.5)

The problem I have with this game is that I’m not sure which team is going to turn up as going into last week I was pretty confident in the Colts development on offence and the defence was doing enough for them to win but they got shut out by the Jaguars. Meanwhile the Houston Texans have now won nine straight and are putting themselves in contention for a bye week come the playoffs. This is the third of a three game home stand and I fancy the Texans to run out winners but this line feels big to me, or at least it would have until the performance of the Colts last week. I don’t know if the Colts will get back centre Ryan Kelly this week and in the end I have to respect the records and trajectory of both teams and so I’m nervously going with the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:       Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Ravens @ Chiefs (-6.5)

This is a really interesting matchup as it features two top ten teams by DVOA but there is still twenty-six percentage points between their overall DVOA values. The Chiefs got their tenth win of the season last week, but they gave up a lot of points to the Raiders and they can’t be happy with their receiving options given they signed just Kelvin Benjamin after he was released by the Bills. The Baltimore Ravens have won three straight since starting Lamar Jackson at quarterback who has given them something at quarterback even if it has been more to do with his legs than throwing ability. I like the Chiefs to run out winners, but the line concerns me as although the Chiefs have a really good home advantage, the Ravens have been really competitive and I can see this one being close. That said the Chiefs have won every game at home by at least a touchdown and that’s enough for me.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Patriots @ Dolphins (+8.5)

The records of these teams may say one thing about this game, but for whatever reason the Patriots consistently have problems when vising Miami and having only won one of their last five games visiting the Dolphins so I think this line is way too big. It’s more than possible that the Patriots will beat this trend and win this game, but I’m not predicting they will do it by nine points. You also have to respect Dan’s commitment to his alternative pick strategy as I think this is the first time I’ve seen him not pick the Dolphins and I don’t think this is the week to break that trend.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Saints @ Buccaneers (+8.5)

This is another big line, which this make this game a tricky one to pick. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a win against the Panthers that gives them a two game winning streak as they host the New Orleans Saints. The Saints were not themselves last week against the Cowboys and have had nine days to get over only their second loss of the season and get right. Weirdly the Saints’ only other loss this season was to the Buccaneers in week one and so this divisional game is definitely making me pause with the pick. I could regret this as the Buccaneer pass defense is not good but on the road I’m suddenly hesitant about the Saints even if I do expect them to win.

Gee’s Pick:       Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Giants @ Washington (-0.5)

So Washington are down to their third string quarterback signed a couple of weeks ago and last week lost both offensive guards in a game for the second time this season. It looks like the injuries have finally reached a critical mass for Washington, even if it does seem to have taken longer than might have been expected. This week they welcome a New York Giants team who rank better by DVOA and have won three out of their last four games. This won’t exactly help the Giants get a quarterback in the off-season but I think it does gives them a slight edge in this game and so I’m going to nervously grab the half point seeing as I do have to pick this game even if it feels like a stay away.

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Bengals @ Chargers (-14.5)

I want to break my own rules on this game as this line is too high because of course it is, except the Bengals have now put AJ Green on IR for the season and their defense has been rotten all year. Even the Chargers problems at home will not crop up in this one as I can’t see Bengals fans travelling in the numbers that some other team’s fans have to LA given the size of some of the road losses the Bengals have this season. My numbers say that this line is too big, but I don’t care as nothing in the losses to the Browns and Broncos since Dalton went down makes me think the Bengals can hang with a team like LA even if the line screams trap.

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

Broncos @ 49ers (+5.5)

This is a really interesting game to pick (I know but bear with me) as the Denver Broncos have a really good DVOA ranking, like fifth in the league and whilst I don’t think they are actually playing like that they have won three straight and have one of the rookies of the year in undrafted running back Philip Lindasy. They travel to face a San Francisco 49ers team who have some deeper problems than the offensive injuries as the defense is only ranked twenty-fifth by DVOA. The line is high enough to make me wonder, but with the Broncos’ pass rush and ability to run the ball I’m backing them to cover this one, although somewhat nervously.

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Eagles @ Cowboys (-4.5)

This is a huge game in terms of playoff races as the Cowboys can pretty much sew up the division if they can make the most of their momentum and beat the visiting Philadelphia Eagles whose title defense has suffered from injuries and departures, leaving their hopes of the playoffs hanging by a thread. The Eagles may have won two straight divisional games but the Cowboys will be rested and have the defense to contain an Eagles team who struggle to stretch the field in the passing game. I like the Cowboys to win this game but I’m not sure that in a divisional game that this might not be too many points to give away and with the importance of this game I’m going to back the Eagles to keep it closer than five but I could be very wrong.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Eagles

Lions @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals got a win last week against the Packers in Green Bay, but that hasn’t changed their position at the bottom of the DVOA rankings yet the Detroit Lions are closer to them than you might have expected given how they started the season. However, with injuries on offence and the trade of Golden Tate things are not going well for the Lions on offence whilst the defense currently ranks twenty-ninth by DVOA. The points are tempting as I have no faith in the Detroit Lions who have managed to confound with some wins against good teams but are 4-8 for a reason. I want to stay away from this game and for that reason and that reason only I’m taking the home underdog.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Steelers @ Raiders (+11.5)

I don’t know quite what is going on with the Pittsburgh Steelers but the combination of Ben Roethlisberger on the road with James Conner suffering a high ankle sprain means that whilst I think the Steelers will beat the Oakland Raiders, this is way too many points to hand a Raiders team who finished seven points behind the Chiefs last week. The Steelers’ defense is much better than the Chiefs, but with the Raiders getting this many points against a road team that don’t always travel well I’m going to nervously back them to keep it within twelve.

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Rams @ Bears (+3.5)

The Sunday night game should be a cracker as the LA Rams take their best record in the league to Chicago to face a Bears team who hope that the return of Mitchell Trubisky rights the ship after last week’s loss to the Giants. Both sides will feature well schemed offences and a pass rushing terror but I have more faith in the Rams to run out winners given they are further down the path with their current coaching staff. This is a really tempting amount of points and I am a sucker for a home underdog anyway, but that extra half point has me wondering if the Bears really can cover. In the end I don’t know what Trubisky will look like if he does play and so I’m going to plump for the Rams but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears make me look stupid.

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Bears

Vikings @ Seahawks (-3.5)

The final game of the week sees the 6-5-1 Minnesota Vikings travel to take on 7-5 Seattle Seahawks in what should be a cracking game. The problem for the Vikings is that their offence hasn’t quite come together this year despite the addition of Kirk Cousins and their defense is not the same as it has been in recent years. The Seahawks meanwhile have got their defense playing tougher than their DVOA  ranking of sixteenth would suggest and they have also got their offense playing better with Russell Wilson playing efficiently thanks to a productive running game. I like the Seahawks in this game and although the extra half point does give me pause, I think they have been the more consistent team recently and will cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Fourteen

06 Thursday Dec 2018

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So here we are, running straight into week fourteen with Dan’s dad and I neck and neck in the picks competition and both Dan and I failing to score points in the trivia last week. We should probably be awarding points for the weeks when Dan’s dad has stumped both Dan and I to give him the chance to win the competition! Anyway, I’m genuinely curious about tonight’s game so let’s get to it.

Gee:    Week 13   9-7             Overall   101-91
Dan:    Week 13   7-9             Overall   90-102

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5)

I am really not sure what to make of these teams. The Titans have been inconsistent all year with some good looking wins but equally baffling losses but at 6-6 still have an outside chance of a playoff spot with a strong finish. It will be too late for the visiting Jaguars who finally broke their losing streak with a 6-0 win over the Colts last week but they have a poor record visiting the Titans having lost their last four games at the Nissan Stadium and nine of their last twelve visits there. The extra half point is a little concerning but at home on a Thursday night I’ll take it and hope that the Jaguars aren’t due a win on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:     Jaguars

‘In the first of this week’s ‘opposite picks’ (going completely against my instinct) I’ll go with the Jags please!’

Week Fourteen Trivia

‘We are certainly heading into this season’s finishing strait and nip and tuck doesn’t even come close as the competition intensifies. I’m polishing my ‘picking pin’ and expecting the wheels to come off but until it happens I’ll keep breaking the plane.

Last week I posed the question about what rule change was instigated as a result of Oakland’s Lester Hayes.

Well Gee’s speculation of a dodgy Oakland tactic was closer than he might have suspected but didn’t butter any parsnips with an idea about on-field celebrations.

Dan conceded that he wasn’t familiar with this but did spot that it would have something to do with him being a Receiver.

This one is quite funny, in fact I came across this as one of the few NFL facts on QI. Lester, known as ‘The Judge’ or ‘Lester the molester’ (no no not that kind) used a product called Stickum, a glue-like substance, which he covered his hands with to aid catching. Banned in the early 80’s he is reportedly quoted as saying that ‘Without Stickum I couldn’t catch a cold in Antarctica’. It’s like the 12 inch wide cricket bat that covered the stumps. The rule was changed to close the loop hole and this is the case with Stickum.

I nearly asked about who introduced the face masks following some horrific injuries – that one I’ll leave hanging for now!

Onto week 14:

Which team ended last season with 5 straight wins having starting it 1-10?

I should really deduct points for wrong answers but not every question needs to be a stinker does it?

Happy Triv’ing’

Week Fourteen Picks

10 Sunday Dec 2017

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Colts @ Bills (-3.5)

The Buffalo Bills still stand an outside chance of squeezing into the playoffs, but they need to keep winning and the injury to Tyrod Taylor’s knee seems to make it likely that Nathan Peterman will get a second start this week. I’m not sure it’s possible for Peterman to have a worse game than he did against the Chargers in week eleven but if he plays it throws real doubt on the Bills ability to win. The Indianapolis Colts come into Buffalo having lost heavily against the Jaguars and don’t have a win since week nine. Until last week they had kept their games close but even though it feels like I should pick the Colts to cover this, I can’t quite make myself do it. I could regret this but the Bills have been good at home and I just don’t trust the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Bengals (-6.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a very physical loss to the Steelers on Monday and thanks to injury are thin at both safety and corner on defence as well as at running back. They welcome a Chicago Bears team who may only be 3-9 but who have kept the majority of their games close. The Bengals have seemed to have found some more consistency in recent weeks but whilst I can see them winning this game, I can’t pick them to cover given the injuries and how tough the Bears defence has been playing.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Packers @ Browns (+3.5)

The Cleveland Browns are searching for a win and welcome a Green Bay Packers who will be desperate to keep themselves in with a theoretical shot at the playoffs as Aaron Rodgers recovers from his broken collar bone. This could be the week that the Browns get a win, but the Packers have something to play for and I’m just not sure what will happen. However, with the Browns getting this number of points I’m going to reluctantly pick them to keep the game within four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Cowboys @ Giants (+4.5)

The New York Giants might get a lift in the locker room from the firing of a head coach that clearly was not in full control of the locker room, but this doesn’t address the weakness of the roster. They welcome a Dallas Cowboys team who got their offence working a bit better last week and who look to be getting Sean Lee back on defence this week. This is a lot of points to get at home, but it is not enough to tempt me even if the Giants do have a little uptake in performance.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Lions @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

Apart from only having a 4-8 record, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been inconsistent on offence and struggled on defence. They welcome a limping Detroit Lions team who have been inconsistent as well despite being in the top half of the league by overall DVOA. It is hard to have much faith in either team and so I’m going to grab the points for the home underdog given Matthew Stafford’s hand injury.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Raiders @ Chiefs (-3.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs could get back to winning ways, but their defence has really struggled for a while now and they only have one win in seven games. The Oakland Raiders do not exactly inspire confidence either, particularly with a defence that is ranked last in the league by DVOA. Although Arrowhead Stadium is a famously loud place to play, on their recent form I just can’t pick the Chiefs to win by four.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Vikings @ Panthers (+2.5)

This should be an interesting game, but I have a lot more faith in the Minnesota Vikings’ ability to move the ball on the tough Carolina Panthers defence than vice versa. This could be one tough road game too many for the Vikings, but even with the Panthers getting points at home, it’s not quite enough to sway me from backing what could well be the best team in the league, even if the DVOA rankings do only have the Vikings listed as sixth.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

49ers @ Texans (-2.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a narrow win over the Bears in Jimmy Guroppolo’s first start and look to have found their franchise quarterback. However, as good as he looked, he didn’t get into the end zone against the Bears and this week they are on the road again facing the wounded Houston Texans team. The Texans have struggled ever since Deshaun Watson went down, and have lost two straight coming into this game. On paper the Texans should have enough to beat the 49ers, and whilst I do wonder what lift Guroppolo will give the 49ers it is just too early for me to back them in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Jets @ Broncos (+0.5)

The Denver Broncos have now lost eight straight games and with the issues at quarterback it is hard to see things improving drastically until the offseason. This week they face a scrappy New York Jets team who are very evenly ranked across all three phases of the game by DVOA. Even though only one of their five wins has come on the road, it is hard to look past the Jets given that the Broncos offence ranks dead last by DVOA and whilst the Broncos obviously could win, I can’t pick that to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Titans @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have stayed competitive despite the injuries they have suffered on offence, but with Adrian Peterson still injured and looking to be out for this game it is hard to see things improving for them. They welcome a Tennessee Titans team that have ground out an 8-4 record despite being ranked twentieth overall by DVOA. I don’t think this game will set many pulses raising outside of the Cardinals and Titans’ fan bases, but I expect the Titans to keep the momentum they have gathered rolling.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Washington @ Chargers (-6.5)

The line of this game does give me pause, but the LA Chargers are on a three game win streak and really seem to have found their formula now. They welcome a very injured Washington team who are a tough out but there is only so much Kirk Cousins can do behind their current offensive line. The lack of home field advantage the Chargers have since their move to LA does concern me, but their excellent pass rush will likely be terrifying to face for Washington. I do see the Chargers winning but I’m just not convinced they will win by seven yet in the end that is what I am nervously going to pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Eagles @ Rams (-2.5)

This is another huge game as the LA Rams welcome the Philadelphia Eagles. The LA Rams come into this game on a two game winning streak and will be hoping to stop the Eagles bouncing back from their loss to the Seahawks last week. In a game that pits the top two teams in the league by DVOA against each other I am going to grab the points and enjoy what should be a cracking game.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Seahawks @ Jaguars (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks got an excellent win last week, but whilst their defence proved it can hold up despite the injuries to Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor and should be fine against the Jaguars one dimensional offence, their offence could really struggle the Jacksonville Jaguars’ second ranked by DVOA defence. In particular the scary Jaguars pass rush could have a field day against the Seahawks suspect offensive line. I’m not saying the Seahawks can’t win, particularly after last week, but on the road I’m not sure I can pick it to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Ravens @ Steelers (-5.5)

I am sure the Pittsburgh Steelers come into this game with Ryan Shazier very much on their minds, and there will be players paying tribute to the injured linebacker with their cleats in this game. The Baltimore Ravens lead the league in defence and special teams by DVOA and are grinding their way through the season. The play of Ben Roethlisberger is noticeably better at home than it is on the road, and having beaten the Ravens on the road by seventeen, I think the Steelers could cover this line. They showed the mental toughness to come back and win last week after being down 17-0 in the second quarter, but after such a physical game I do wonder if there will be a let-down this week, yet in the end I’m going to back the Steelers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Patriots @ Dolphins (+11.5)

The Miami Dolphins have often played the New England Patriots tough at home, but give the way their season has gone and their recent performances, I just can’t pick them to do it again. I’m sure Dan will be very happy for me to be proved wrong, but in front of the nation I think the Patriots will be too focussed to let the Dolphins have a sniff in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Quick Thursday Night Pick

07 Thursday Dec 2017

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Only time for a quick pick tonight so here are the results from last night and what I think might happen.

Gee:      Week 13   12-4                   Overall   109-84
Dan:      Week 13   8-8                     Overall   102-91

Saints @ Falcons (+0.5)

I’ve said this about Thursday night games a few times this season, but this really should be a good game. The New Orleans Saints have been transformed this year and stand atop of the NFC South as they welcome their division rivals the Atlanta Falcons who have struggled at various points through the season but are still 7-5 and in the playoff hunt. However, if they are to stay there then the Falcons can ill afford to lose this game and with them being at home as well as desperate I am going to tip the Falcons to edge this one out although I would not be surprised if the Saints won. Certainly that would please Dan.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Saints