Monthly Archives: September 2018

2018 Week Two Picks

16 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

So here we are, and it’s already week two but before we get down to the second week of picks let’s see if either of Dan or I can actually score a point in the trivia competition so here’s a reminder of the question:

‘This week I want to know what connects the following teams:

Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, Bengals and Bears.’

Now I think that what links all these teams is that they lost their last Super Bowl appearance, so let’s see what Dan thought:

‘This is an absolute guess this week, and resisting the urge to put “They all have an ‘E’ in their name” and being correct on a technicality I’ll say…. Have none of them had the first Draft pick??’ [I happen to know the Bengals have – Ed.]

Panthers @ Falcons (-5.5)

This should be an interesting game between two division rivals but I worry for the Atlanta Falcons as not only did Matt Ryan look off last week, but they lost key players up the spine of their defence in Deion Jones and Keanu Neal. This is the NFL so I’m not saying that the Falcons can’t win this game, and if the years picking games has taught me anything it’s that teams are more likely to go 1-1 than win or lose both games, but this is too many points going against a Carolina Panthers team that looked good on defence last week.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

‘The Falcons didn’t win last week, but played quite well. So did the panthers, but they were probably helped by the Cowboys not looking great. I’ll go Falcons this week.’

Chargers @ Bills (+7.5)

The Bills looked bad last week and the response is to give Josh Allen his first start, which was not the plan going into the season. This is a big swing in points, but the Bills looked horrible and so I think the LA Chargers will pick up their first win of the season but what worries me is that they are coming across the country to play the Bills in Buffalo and I wonder if this game could be closer than I think. I am tempted by the Bills to cover in a loss, there has to be a reaction to last week’s game in this their home opener and I don’t exactly trust the Chargers so I am finding this one really hard to commit to. In the end this is too many points for me in a game that I don’t have that strong a lean in terms of line.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

‘If the Bills play like they did last week, they’re going to struggle to get many wins this season, and I don’t envy their rookie QB’s position. I’m going Chargers.’

Browns @ Saints (-8.5)

The New Orleans Saints lost their home opener to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week in a game where they scored forty but conceded forty-eight. Funny things can happen in divisional games but this week they welcome a Cleveland Browns team who failed to grasp the opportunity to beat the Steelers despite generating six turnovers. The Browns’ defence looks like it will be nasty and Myles Garrett looked every inch the high first round pick that he was, but Drew Brees continues to play other worldly football. I think that Saints bounce back in this one and their defence, which played so much better last season will be determined not to let the Saints go 0-2 whilst I don’t have faith in Hue Jackson at all.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Browns

‘The Saints will win this one, but I think this will be another close one, so I’m backing the Browns to cover.’

Vikings @ Packers (-0.5)

As I’m writing this we don’t know if Aaron Rodgers will be able to start given his knee sprain from last week, and there’s been plenty of talk that the Minnesota Viking defence is not the unit for Rodgers to face with a dodgy knee. The problem with that is DeShone Kizer completed four of his seven passes and managed a pick six in his limited time leading the Green Bay Packers offence whilst Rodgers was getting evaluated. It’s not often these days that picking against the Packers at home is good pick but the fall off if Rodgers can’t play is dramatic and I think the Vikings are as good a shout as anyone for the best team in the league and so in what is basically a pick’em game I’m backing the Vikings.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Packers

‘Another close one I’m struggling to pick. With the roar of the Lambeau behind them, I’ll pick Green Bay.’

Texans @ Titans (+2.5)

This game pits two winless teams against each other but the Tennessee Titans are still waiting to see if oft injured quarterback Marcus Mariota can play with the pinched nerve in his elbow that is causing loss of sensation in his fingers, but we do know that both of their starting offensive tackles are ruled out of this game and Delanie Walker is done for the season. It doesn’t exactly inspire confidence when head coach Mike Vrabel says that they’re anticipating having both Mariota and Blaine Gabbert play. The Houston Texans have injury concerns of their own on an offensive line that was a concern coming into the season, but they were a frequent pick to be one of the teams of the AFC and they need to get back to winning ways quickly if this is to hold true. I don’t have a lot of faith in the Texans but two road games that opens in New England is a rough way to start the season for any team and so I’m not reading too much into the week one loss.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

‘The Titans are knackered, and the Texans looked ok last week despite a loss against the Patriots, so this is quite an easy one. I’ll go Texans.’

Colts @ Washington (-5.5)

The Indianapolis Colts lost to the Bengals last week in a game where Andrew Luck returned from his long injury layoff and looked good but otherwise this rebuilding team struggled. This week they travel to face a Washington team who won a game very competently against the Cardinals. The experienced quarterback Alex Smith threw for over two hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns whilst Arian Peterson ran for the ninety-six yards and took three receptions seventy yards. I don’t know how sustainable this kind of production is for Peterson but it does seem that Smith is a good fit for Jay Gruden’s system and it looks like Washington are in position to get off to a better start to this season than has been the case in recent years. I like Washington to run out winners in this one and whilst the points worry me a little, I’m placing some trust in Jay Gruden’s men. I hope I don’t regret it.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

‘Colts aren’t going to do well this year – that much seems fairly clear already. Luck will be Lucky(!) to last the season if he keeps getting hit! Redskins for me.’

Chiefs @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are still without Le’Veon Bell and whilst James Conner was a very competent replacement in the running game, Ben Roethlisberger had a rotten start to the season in week one throwing three interceptions as the Steelers tied with the Cleveland Browns. This week they welcome a Kansas City Chiefs team that looked really good on offence in their first game and looked a bit better on defence. This game could be a real offensive show as I’m not convinced by the Steelers defence these days and I’m definitely going to be watching this one. I’m slightly surprised by the number of points that the Steelers are getting and whilst I expect them to be better and winning the game would hardly be a surprise, I can’t pick them to win by six against this Chief who look explosive on offence.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

‘Picking Chiefs, but Steelers to win the game.’

Dolphins @ Jets (-2.5)

I am really intrigued by this game because the Miami Dolphins ground out a win against the Titans in difficult circumstances thanks to the weather, and this week travel to New York to face a Jets team who easily beat a woeful Lions team. Now, this could very well have made Sam Darnold look better than he actually is, but the buzz around the Jets’ rookie quarterback is incredibly positive and I want to know if the Lions made the Jets look good last week, or if the Jets are going to be a danger in the AFC East. The worry for me in this game is that the Dolphins went 2-6 in the division last season, losing all their divisional games road games and are in fact 2-11 against the spread in their last thirteen divisional road games. I may well regret this but Todd Bowles has at least kept the Jets competitive and with a live arm at quarterback I’m going against Dan in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

‘Of course….’

Eagles @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

This is a curious game for me as the Philadelphia Eagles offence continued to struggle in week one with Nick Foles not looking good and he remains the starter as the Super Bowl winners travel to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers coming off a win. The history of Ryan Fitzpatrick is not of consistent good performances from week to week otherwise he wouldn’t have moved around so many teams and the Eagles defence at least looked very good last week. There are a number of home underdogs this week and it’s not likely that they’ll all lose, but I have more faith in Doug Pederson and his coaching staff than the infrastructure in Tampa and so whilst I don’t like the points particularly, I think the Eagles will get another win and I just hope it’s by enough to warrant this pick.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

‘Sorry Bucks fans, but I can’t see them repeating their performance from last week, so Eagles on this one.’

Lions @ 49ers (-5.5)

There are signs that things are really not going well in Detroit with continued rumblings about Matt Partricia coming from the locker room and talk from the Jets that they knew the Lions’ calls and what was coming on offence. Having been so thoroughly dismantled by the Jets they now travel to face the San Francisco 49ers who are coming off their own tough start in Minnesota. However, even against the tough Vikings defence Kyle Shanahan was able to scheme players open and whilst Jimmy Garoppolo no longer has an unbeaten record, this was always going to happen at some point and I fancy them to get back to winning ways. The points in this game do worry me a little, but the Lions look like things could go really wrong for them and I’m not convinced of a turn around this week.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

‘Something’s telling me that Jimmy G’s team will take this one fairly comfortably. Could be wrong, but I’m picking San Francisco.’

Cardinals @ Rams (-12.5)

This is a horrible game to pick just because of the line. The LA Rams went on the road and ran out convincing winners against the Raiders and this week they welcome an Arizona Cardinals team who got blown out by Washington last week. It was always going to be hard to turn things round after losing Bruce Arians as coach and Carson Palmer as quarterback. They drafted Josh Rosen for the future but right now Sam Bradford is the starting quarterback but I struggle to see them turning things round against a Rams team who invested in their defence in the offseason and who have one of the best young coaches in the game. The problem is that this is a huge line and I feel like I should pick the Cardinals but having got blown out against Washington at home, I don’t see how they will do better against a stacked Rams team on the road. I could really regret this one.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

‘This is horrible given the size of the spread. I’ll go Cards, reluctantly.’

Raiders @ Broncos (-5.5)

This looks to be a horrible spot for the currently Oakland Raiders who lost the late Monday night game and now travel to face the Denver Broncos. The Raiders lost badly and the situation with Jon Gruden has the potential to go seriously wrong. This feels like a lot of points for the Broncos to give up, but they have a definite home advantage and got the job done last week despite Case Keenum throwing three interceptions to go with his three touchdowns. In a familiar theme, this feels like a lot of points but I do not trust the road team and so I’m hoping the Broncos build on last week’s win.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

‘The Broncos pulled off a bit of a surprise last week in beating the Seahawks. I fancy the Raiders this week though.’

Patriots @ Jaguars (+2.5)

If there is a home underdog that could be the one to go with it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars who host the New England Patriots in a rerun of last season’s AFC conference championship game. The Jaguars look pretty much the same as last year with a dominant defence and a limited offence that will not be helped by Leonard Fournette being questionable thanks to a hamstring injury. The Patriots got their season off to a winning start against the Texans last week and it looked like their defence could be better although the Texan’s offensive line will have helped that. It’s always dangerous to pick against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and I’m really looking forward to taking a look at the coaching tape to see what the Patriots offence schemes up to take on the Jaguars’ defence. I don’t want to pick against all the home underdogs but I can’t quite bring myself to pick the Jaguars with the injuries on offence and it’s not hard to see the Patriots winning this one by a field goal.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

‘What a game this will be. I’ll go Jaguars in the hope they stick the first L to the Pats.’

Giants @ Cowboys (-2.5)

This is a straight up battle for the first win of the season between two struggling teams. With Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham in the huddle the New York Giants have talent on offence but weren’t able to generate that much last week against the fearsome Jaguars defence. That said the Dallas Cowboys have continued their struggles from last season and their offensive line is struggling with injuries. I’m not exactly convinced by either team so I’m going to grab the points with the Giants but it really feels like a shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants

‘Big divisional game here from 2 teams who aren’t their normal selves this year. Giants to win for me.’

Seahawks @ Bears (-3.5)

The Seahawks have got a rough start to the season with two road games and having lost narrowly to the Broncos last week they travel to Chicago this week to face the Bears before they get to play in Seattle. If things weren’t difficult enough for Russell Wilson, his favourite receiver Doug Baldwin injured his good knee last week and is out for this game. The problem for the Bears is that they looked good for a half but can they be consistent for an entire game versus a Seahawks team who are always competitive. It’s a long way to travel for the Seahawks but I can’t quite bring myself to have the Bears win by more than a field goal. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears win as I think they showed a lot of potential in their last game and they could very easily make me look foolish.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Bears

‘This is really tough. Really tough. The Bears look really good with Khalil Mack, and the Seahawks lost to the Broncos last week… I’ll go Chicago.’

AAF: Donald and Suh

16 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , ,

In my first amateur adventures in film of the new season I decided to take a look at the LA Rams defence and how they would use their new pairing of defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald.

The quick answer to this is flexibly and often not at tackles. I don’t want to read too much into this game as it was the first one of the season, Aaron Donald basically missed all of the pre-season, and who am I to question Wade Philips but I am a little concerned. Generally I think the best coaches mould their system to make best use of the players available but with these two high profile tackles things felt a little forced. In what looked to be their base 3-4 defence ,Suh was playing the nose tackle whilst Donald played end. There were also several times during the first half where in passing situations where they would line up with four linemen and have Suh playing as an end. This seemed to shift in the second half to having both Suh and Donald play tackle but with wide gap between them as they lined up over the offensive guards outside shoulders.

The sum of all this was that Donald flashed the quickness and power that has made him one of the most effective defensive players in the game, but I’m not sure they made Derek Carr uncomfortable enough up the middle. For a lot of this game Carr was able to get the ball out before the pass rush got there and he was often able to step up in the pocket. That said, Carr didn’t exactly play well and the Rams were able to generate three interceptions if only sacking Carr once.

I can’t help but wonder what more of a rotation where Sun and Donald both get to rush from the interior and both in passing downs might truly terrify offences. I would want to maximise the talent the Rams have at defensive line by getting both Donald and Suh closer to the quarterback and pushing the pocket more. I’d want to be more aggressive and not have them read and react but we shouldn’t read too much into the first game. This is one to watch as it develops through the season and I certainly wouldn’t bet against Wade Philips turning the volatile talent he has at his disposal into a fearsome unit. So let’s see how these two players learn to work best together, but right now I find it more of a watching brief than an inspiring start.

Competition Thursday: Week 2

13 Thursday Sep 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , ,

Here we are, staring at the start of week two and after a bad start I was able to take a two point lead over Dan in the pick’s competition, although not content with stumping us with trivia questions Dan’s dad has actually taken an early lead over both of us in the picks group by getting twelve games right. As usual there’s a couple of games that I lost that were narrow and I’m okay with those results, but as ever there are plenty of teams that I need to take careful stock of but now it’s time to start with the week two games.

Gee: Week 1 11-5 Overall 11-5
Dan: Week 1 9-7 Overall 9-7

Ravens @ Bengals (+0.5)

This is a horrible line as I’m nervous enough about facing the Ravens after their thorough beating of the Bills last week, but they won’t lack for motivation having been knocked out of the playoffs by the Bengals last season. The home teams generally have a better time of it in the Thursday night games but whilst this is a 3.5 point move from the default -3 for the home team, a half point really doesn’t help unless the Bengals manage a third tie in the last couple of season! My usual rule is to take the home team on Thursday unless there’s a very good reason not to, and I’m wary of reading too much into the size of the beating the Ravens gave the Bills but it was no doubt impressive. In the end I’m going to take Dan’s optimistic approach and avoid the emotional hedge but I don’t feel confident doing it, come on Bengals, don’t let me down now!

As for Dan, ‘Sorry Gee, I was impressed with how you looked against the Colts, especially in the second half, but I just can’t see the Bengals winning this one I’m afraid.’

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Week 2 Trivia

And from Dan’s Dad:

‘In Week 1 I asked which NFL stadium had the 2nd highest elevation at 1070 feet (After Mile High which was just too easy!).

Neither Gee nor Dan troubled the scorers this week. Although Gee’s Mexico idea was very creative as a rule I’m staying within the Contiguous (or Lower) 48. Chicago on the bank of Lake Michigan only manages 591 feet with Buffalo is a little better with 751 feet but there are lots of opportunities to score over the coming weeks!

Moving on to Week 2 then:

This week I want to know what connects the following teams:

Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, Bengals and Bears.’

Take a Breath Before You Panic

12 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

18-09-12 Lions

Image Credit: eu.freep.com

The week one games are in the book and so after this first flurry of games the natural next step is to react and thanks to a combination of modern media and the small number of games ever result is either a triumph or a disaster. So before we continue, remember to take a breath and not to read too much into the result for you team in their first game, unless you need to panic and given that all seven new head coaches lost this week perhaps you might.

Having seen both teams in the pre-season I wasn’t convinced by either the Bills or the Lions but both were on the wrong side of score lines over forty points. I can see how the Bills got themselves into the mess they are in, and they think they have their quarterback of the future so Josh Allen but given the moves they made to get him the young quarterback needs to work out. Poor Nathan Peterman didn’t stand much chance behind the Bills’ reworked offensive line . I’m not going to pretend that I’m a good enough judge of talent to say whether he does or doesn’t belong in the NFL, but he’s had two disastrous starts for the Bills now, and it throws the decision to trade away AJ McCarron into sharp relief as Allen is now starting next week despite not being ready four days ago. The Lions meanwhile managed to lose at home to a rookie quarterback in his first start on the road and this only furthers reinforces the poor impression I got from them in pre-season. It is going to take a number of wins to wipe the memory of that start from the fans who were in attendance.

The reason that they and the other teams who lost in week one might need to panic is that while roughly half of the teams that go 2-0 make the playoffs, only around ten percent of teams who start 0-2 make the playoffs. Now for some being competitive and winning some games (I’m looking at you Browns) would be an improvement in line with expectations as there are plenty of teams who see a return to competitiveness as a marked improvement. The Saints were not expected to lose to the Buccaneers, but if Ryan Fitzpatrick keeps playing like he did in the first game perhaps Jameis Winston won’t walk straight back into the starting role. The defence for the Saints no showed in the home opener against a divisional opponent, which is a real worry for a team that plays decidedly better in their dome so they will be looking to bounce back against the Browns on Sunday.

Now the Cleveland Browns reached peak Browns by avoiding losing their opening game in a tie and failing to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers despite generating six turnovers – plus Myles Garrett looked like a monster. It feels like there’s a lot more talent on this year’s roster but I think everyone is doubting whether the coaching staff can pull it together in Cleveland and stuff like this really doesn’t help.

Another team that will be ruing a missed opportunity is the Chicago Bears who had the Packers on the ropes in the first in Green Bay before Aaron Rodgers pulled off another miracle, firstly by getting back on the field having been carted off and then by leading a comeback from 20-0 down in the third quarter. The Bears will draw a little comfort from the fact that we all know Rodgers is, to quote Robert May, ‘…a f#*@ing dragon!’ but they got conservative in the second half on offence whilst the defence failed to cope when the Packers adjusted and got the ball out of Rodgers’ hands quickly. This was not helped by the lack of pre-season showing up for Khalil Mack who looked unstoppable early in the game but was on a rep count and couldn’t help late. The question for fans of the Bears is does the promise displayed develop as new head coach Matt Nagy gets used to calling plays for the entire game and how to maximise the offence, but that is a question we will only find out the answer to in the coming weeks.

It’s too early to draw too much from the Kansas City Chiefs win over the LA Chargers but they looked very promising on offence. Patrick Mahomes has a ridiculous arm and didn’t throw an interception although the play calling and skills players had a lot to do with the points scored and the LA Chargers would have been a lot closer if players would stop dropping passes from Philip Rivers. The Chargers are still finding ways to lose games and the number of fans at their ‘home’ games is still a worry, the new stadium that the Rams are building and that the Chargers will be sharing once its open could be very empty and dominated by away fans if the situation remains the same.

The Oakland Raiders failed to win and I will be keeping an eye on them, but the signs are not good for this season and the questions about the Mack trade will only get louder if he builds on the promise he showed in the Bears’ opener. Meanwhile Jerry Jones avoided the media after the Dallas Cowboys opening loss to the Carolina Panthers and without a quick improvement on offence.

Now a lot of teams are in a position to turn around their single loss and I certainly wouldn’t panic if I was a fan of say the Steelers (although the display by Ben Roethlisberger was concerning), but there will be fans all over the league who will be that extra bit nervous during the upcoming games and to them I say this, there is a long season up ahead and 0-2 doesn’t necessarily mean your team won’t make the playoff but if your team loses a second game, well at that point you can definitely panic!

Great Start To The Season… Except For Our Fantasy Team!

12 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Ok, it’s Tuesday which means it’s Blogging time for me! I’m just back from watching a boring England side in ‘the Other Football’ beat Switzerland in a boring friendly… such a comedown from a great weekend of NFL!

Where to start? Well, the Dolphins I suppose! Good win for the fins this week against a battered and bruised Tennessee Titans – this despite two weather related game breaks meaning the game which started at 6pm over here in England went on to finish just after 1:20am on Monday morning! It’s a good job my boss knows why I’m always knackered on Mondays during the season. On a serious note, I was impressed by Miami – we looked renewed which was nice, and special mentions have to go to Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake (who I can see running through some dirty great holes in defences this year), a debuting Minkah Fitzpatrick (who made some critical defensive stops) and Ryan Tannehill who looked fresh returning from Injury.

Speaking of which, there were a few QBs coming back this week. I got to see some of Deshaun Watson for the Texans and Andrew Luck for the Colts. It won’t be long before Watson is back to his best, but Andrew Luck is going to struggle if his line let him get hit as much as he did by the Bengals in the coming weeks.

Image Credit – nypost.com

Honourable QB mentions should also go to Aaron Rodgers, who lead his team to an incredible comeback victory even with an injured leg, after being down by more than 20 points, and Ryan Fitzpatrick who threw over 400 yards and got himself a couple of touchdowns in the process – hands up who had him in their fantasy team? …anyone?? If he carries on like that, Jamies Winston will struggle to get back in when his suspension is up.

The Browns did the most Brownsy thing they possibly could and when attempting a medium range kick to win their game with the Steelers in overtime, managed to get it blocked and come away with a tie. It means they definitely won’t go 0-16 this year but it would have been nice of them to get one in the W column in a divisional game week one. Le’veon Bell will have been a keen spectator of that game, having not travelled with Pittsburgh for this one due to his ongoing contractual hold-out. I can’t see him leaving the Steelers, but some of their key players will be knocking on management’s door this week trying to get a deal done and get him back in yellow and black.

Image Credit – CBS Sports

And my early pick for the Super Bowl, the Rams, managed a good win on Monday too. Not managed to watch that game yet but I’ll pick that up in the next few days. So, “how’s the odds chart looking Dan?” I hear you cry! Well, like this, I reply:

Odds are down to 10-1 after week one actually making them third favourites – level with the Eagles and behind only the Vikings and the Patriots. Not bad after one game!

The Wrong Football fantasy team didn’t manage to get off to a winning start unfortunately, beaten by 192.5 to 183.4. This disappoints me having gone unbeaten with the ‘Suh Tang Clan’ 2 years ago (I might have mentioned it once or twice on the pod…!!). I’ll be wheeling and dealing in the market this week as I was too late to pick up a good Running back off waivers and Lynch is questionable. The full team looks something like this:

Feedback welcomed, but I can’t promise to listen!!

Anyway, before I go this week, quick shout to Darren Butler (@darrenbutler87) who gave me a great little bit of trivia this week which I wanted to share with you…

“For three years between 1983 and 1986 the Heisman Trophy Winner was not drafted by an NFL Franchise, with all three opting to join the USFL spring series instead.”

Lovely little stat that! In the spirit of our trivia competition, if you’ve got a good bit of NFL trivia to share (useless or otherwise – the more ‘pub knowledge’ the better!) drop me a tweet @TWFDan and you may get a mention here next week!

That’s all for now. Until next time…

@TWFDan

2018 Week One Picks

09 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

So here it is, the first week of picks and having dropped a point to Dan already let’s see if I can pick some points back up again!

Before we get going though there’s the small matter of this year’s trivia competition so here’s a reminder of the week one question:

‘All teams aspire to finish as high as they can so we kick off the new season with a question about the Highest Altitude of NFL Stadia. At 5280 feet the Broncos Mile High Stadium is way too easy as a question but, at 1070 feet, who comes in second?’

So my first thought was that Dan’s dad is just too good at this and I’m betting that I can’t have the Raiders when they play in Mexico City. I mentally went through the NFL divisions and had a couple of thoughts, although my knowledge of American geography is not that strong, and in the end I’m going to plump for the Buffalo Bills. Now I get to check what Dan thought and feel like an idiot…

‘So, I don’t know the answer to this, but to guess I’m between two – one with an element of Logic (Chicago – it’s windy, makes sense that it’s high up) and one because I just have a feeling (Detroit). I’ll go for Chicago I think!’

Remember the actual answer will be revealed in The Wrong Football Newsletter that is sent out Wednesday nights so sign up here.

Bills @ Ravens (-5.5)

I am worried about the Bills’ offensive line and the effect it will have on their young quarterbacks and the Ravens look to be competitive this year with better receivers than they’ve had in recent seasons so I’m going with the Ravens in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

‘While this could go either way, the Bills are already a bit banged up going into week one, so I’m going for Baltimore’

Bengals @ Colts (-3.5)

I’m feeling good about how the Bengals looked in pre-season and I come into this game relatively confident about how they are going to play. Yes the Colts beat them in pre-season but Andrew Luck has been out for a long time with his shoulder injury and they are still in the process of rebuilding a roster that sorely lacked talent. I think the Bengals are the better team (please don’t let me be wrong!) and so with an extra half point I’m taking the road underdog Bengals.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

‘Almost everything wants me to go for the Colts here, especially with Andrew Luck being back, but something’s telling me the Bengals are going to do it! Hopefully that doesn’t jinx you mate!’

Steelers @ Browns (+6.5)

This is a bit of a tricky one for me as I think the Steelers are the better team, but they have a nasty habit of playing down to their opposition and they will be without Le’Veon Bell who still hasn’t signed back with his team. I’m wary of the Hard Knocks curse but I thought watching the pre-season games that the Browns were more competitive and this point total means the Browns only have to stay within a touchdown. This game would be a lot easier to pick in a week or two but I think Myles Garrett is going to a real menace to quarterbacks and I’m going to give the Browns a go. Watch Antonio Brown make me look like a fool!

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

‘If Hard Knocks has taught me anything it’s that the Browns will win a game this year. Not this one though. Away Win.’

Titans @ Dolphins (+1.5)

There are so many unknown variables in this one. For the Titans what effect will Mike Vrabel have on his team and will new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur be able to unlock Marcus Mariota’s full potential. Meanwhile, the Dolphins traded or cut their best players on defence and offence whilst quarterback Ryan Tannehill is coming back from a year off with a knee injury and I trust Adam Gase as a head coach. The Titans may well end the season with the better record but in a game I’m not sure of I’m going to grab the points for the home team.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

‘Dolphins. Obviously.’

49ers @ Vikings (-5.5)

This should be a really fascinating game given that it features the unbeaten Jimmy Garoppolo (it’s just fun to type that so I’m going to enjoy it until it stops being a thing) and the improving 49ers taking on the Vikings with their new quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Vikings had a real home advantage in their new stadium last year and I expect it to be the same this year. The loss of the Jerick Mckinnon to a torn ACL is a cruel blow for the 49ers and so despite the points and my nervousness about the streak, I’m picking the Vikings to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

‘I think this is going to be a good year for the modern day Purple People Eaters this year, and I think they’ll start with a home win. Minnesota.’

Texans @ Patriots (-6.5)

There are enough warning signs in New England that I think this game could be competitive, but the problem is that it is a big could. The Texans defence has all the pieces you could want whilst their offence sees the return of Deshaun Watson who set the league alight last year before his injury. The Patriots come into the season with questions at the skills position and a forty-one year old quarterback but you just know that we can’t discount Belichick and Brady until we actually see it go wrong. However, this is enough points for me to take the Texans and I just hope that I’m not reading too much into the Texans keeping the game within three last season.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

‘New England are going to have another very New England year. I’ll put them down for a win by a TD.’

Buccaneers @ Saints (-9.5)

This number of points should worry me in an opening game but the fact is that Saints are at home and have everything setup to follow last year’s season with another good one and I’m not at all convinced by the Buccaneers. There’s plenty of potential for the Bucs to make me eat my words but in week one I’m just swinging with my convictions and that says the Saints cover this and win.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

‘The 9.5 point spread on this one makes it the most difficult line of the week. I think I’ll go with New Orleans but won’t be surprised if I get this one wrong!’

Jaguars @ Giants (+2.5)

This is a trick game for me as the Jaguars look set to continue to have an amazing defence but their offence could still continue to struggle to move the ball through the air given the receiving options available. However, just how much of a turnaround are the Giants capable off and specifically how well can Eli Manning play. This game represents a five-and-a-half-point swing and I’m so tempted by the points but the Jaguars only have to win by a field goal to cover this. I could really regret this but I’m not quite ready to call this one for the Giants just yet as I haven’t seen them.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

‘Jags for me. They’re going to have another good year this year. I’d like to see them at least make the playoffs again.’

Chiefs @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers have all the players you could need but might have a home disadvantage thanks to their status as LA’s other team and the Chiefs are going to have the offensive capacity to stay in most games. This feels like a real toss up pick and should be a great game but the half point just has me backing the Chiefs to keep this one to at least a field goal, particularly when Andy Reid has time to prepare.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

‘Struggling to call this one as I could see it going either way. I’ll go Chargers with the home advantage.’

Cowboys @ Panthers (-2.5)

I’m not sure about the Cowboys given the strength of the offence has been shaken by injuries and whilst I feel like in the long run they could be okay, a road game against a Panthers team who are strong at home is not an easy start to the season. The Panthers have their own questions on the offensive line but with them only having to win by field goal to cover then I’m going with the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

‘Road win, but I’ve changed my mind on this line twice since I started looking at it!’

Seahawks @ Broncos (-2.5)

This is a tricky pick for me given that I think that the Seahawks will be more competitive than most seem to think, but they start the season on the road in Denver, which is not an easy place to play. The Broncos have another offensive line that I’m not convince by and this could hamper Case Keenum who had a career year in Minnesota but who also benefitted by having one of the best pairs of receivers in the league so there are big questions about whether he can repeat or improve on that performance. This could turn into a real slug fest and I don’t have a strong opinion either way so given the Broncos home advantage and that they only need a field goal to win I’m reluctantly going with them.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

‘I could do with the Seahawks having a good year this year, especially with Russell Wilson under centre for our Fantasy team! I’ll back them for week one.’

Washington @ Cardinals (-0.5)

I’m really not sure what to expect from the Cardinals with the change in the coaching staff and them starting Sam Bradford at quarterback but the same basically goes for Washington so who knows? This game is basically a pick’em and given that Washington have not started fast in recent years and are on the road I’ll back the Cardinals and the return of David Johnson but I don’t feel strongly about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

‘Another one that could go either way so is only being called on the basis of Arizona being at home!’

Bears @ Packers (-8.5)

The Packers have Aaron Rodgers back and a new defensive coordinator as they welcome a Bears team that have just acquired Khalil Mack and will be radically different on offence this season. The Bears have generated a lot of buzz this offseason but it is unclear how much Mack will play in this game. This is a lot of points and Packers’ head coach Mike McCarthy has a tendency to play conservative with a lead so whilst I’m not saying the Bears will win this game, I do think they can keep it to within nine points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Bears

‘Packers are going to win this one, but not by more than a touchdown so I’m going for the Bears to cover.’

Jets @ Lions (-6.5)

I am really not sure about this game as there are lot of changing factors in this game. Todd Bowles kept the Jets competitive despite a roster depleted of talent but they start this season with a rookie quarterback whilst the Lions may have looked bad in the pre-season game I saw them but it was the final game where no starters played. A touchdown win seems too rich for me at first look but I can’t bring myself to pick a rookie quarterback with questionable receivers on the road in his debut so Lions it is…

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

‘J-E-T-S – Lose, Lose, Lose!’

Rams @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Raiders may be at home and getting points but they have a head coach who hasn’t actually coached in nine years and who has just traded away their best player. In the long run it might be a good salary cap move but it is not a move you can look your current team in the eye and say you made them better for this game. This is a tough start for the Raiders and whilst we haven’t seen what tricks Sean McVay has prepared for this season, he has catapulted himself into the discussion of best head coaches in the league after one season and so this is still not enough points for me to pick the Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

‘LA win in Monday Night’s game, followed by everyone copying me and jumping on the bandwagon and the odds dropping!!’

Transitioning into the New Season

09 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by in Hard Knocks, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

18-09-09 Wentz and Foles

Image Credit: sportingnews.com

So I thought I would take this last Sunday without coaching tape to talk about I would write a little about the last Hard Knocks episode and the first game of the season.

I mentioned last week that the timing of the last episode is always slightly off as the cuts, which are the big feature of the last show are problematic to watch as your intruding on very difficult time for the players involved and the tension is often already gone as the cuts are big news so you often already know who has and hasn’t made it. This is even more so here in the UK with our delayed showing so we couldn’t watch episode five until the day of the start of the season.

This week’s episode got to the game more quickly as the ending is focussed around the cuts, but it was interesting to see Rogan Broback go into the game, start tight and then settle in before throwing a sharp touchdown price. However, this year none of the bubble players that have been featured this season made the team with even Carl Nassib getting cut a day later after the Browns were down to fifty-three to faclilitate a roster move and unusually, he was the only player who got picked up by the time the episode was aired or as far as I can tell now. It has to be hard for Nate Orchard who had a pick six interception in the final game to not make the roster or get picked up. We saw Devon Cajuste working on his blocking and keep trying, but whilst he’s apparently had interest from teams, none of them have sought to pick up the converted tight end yet but he could get a look as injuries start to pile up as could Orchard.

We then moved from bottom of the roster moves to the excitement of the new season that didn’t quite take off on Thursday night as the Atlanta Falcons travelled to Philadelphia to face the Super Bowl champion Eagles. If there is a real worry for the NFL office from this game it was the number of penalties in this game and whilst it wasn’t full of leading with the head penalties there were twenty-six flags for a total of two hundred and thirty-six yards.

For the Falcons the frustration was that they moved the ball well and Julio Jones looked really good but they were flat bad in the red zone and how Jones is off the field as often as he seems to be close the goal line I do not know. At least make your opponent cover the most dangerous skills player you have! I was also a little worried by some of Matt Ryan’s throws and he did not live up to the contract he just signed. It’s absolutely not time to panic, if your home record is good you only have to win a few games on the road to get to the playoffs but the Falcons were right there and couldn’t win the game.

As for the Eagles, the defence is still based on a fearsome pass rush and looked good but the clamour for Carson Wentz to get back into the game will only rise after this performance by Nick Foles. However, the team got the win and I’d forgotten what an effect having Darren Sproles has on the offence. They showed flashes and perhaps Foles will always win games where he has a catch but the Eagles will be looking to improve next week.

The important thing in week one never mind the opening game is not to over react but let’s hope there are few less flags flying in the rest of the games as we get going with the rest of the week one.

Competition Thursday: Week 1

06 Thursday Sep 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , ,

Welcome to the fifth year of The Wrong Football’s Pick Competition between Dan and me. The current overall standings are three seasons to one for me and this year we will be making more of a feature of Competition Thursday where I’ll update you on how we went last week with our picks, the overall standings, and new this year we’ll be bringing the trivia competition from the podcast to the blog.

Each week Dan’s dad will be setting us a question that Dan and I will be answering with the Sunday picks. Because we are gentlemen there will be no looking up the answers on the internet. The answer will be confirmed in the Wednesday night newsletter so do sign-up here as apart from that answer you’ll also get a roundup of the week in the NFL and the blog as well as a sneak preview of Thursday’s trivia question.

Anyway, without further ado, onto tonight’s opening game!

Falcons @ Eagles (-3.5)

It’s always tricky to pick games early in the season given that pre-season is not that strong an indicator of how a team will play, but the Eagles have enough injuries and an absence of touchdowns for the first team offence in pre-season for me to be tempted by the extra half point for the underdogs. The Falcons were not so far away from beating the Eagles in the playoffs last season and will have revenge on their mind so whilst I could regret this, I’m taking the half point.

As for Dan, ‘Last year’s Super Bowl champions are going to kick off the year with a win. Eagles for me.’

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Week 1 Trivia

All teams aspire to finish as high as they can so we kick off the new season with a question about the Highest Altitude of NFL Stadia. At 5280 feet the Broncos Mile High Stadium is way too easy as a question but, at 1070 feet, who comes in second?

NFC Preview

05 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

18-09-05 NFC-2

So having set myself this ridiculous task, it’s time to try to finish my whistle-stop previews in time for the start of the season so on to the NFC!

NFC North

The Minnesota Vikings won the division at a canter last season and whilst they might not have it all their own way this year now the Packers have Aaron Rodgers back and healthy, they are one of the fancied teams in the NFC. Having let three quarterbacks walk at the start of free agency they signed Kirk Cousins and expect to match offensive production with their fearsome defence. The offensive line is the one obvious weakness but in Mike Zimmer they have one of the best coaches in the league and I think they will be there or there about come December.

The Green Bay Packers had a down season last year thanks to Aaron Rodgers’s broken collar bone, but they will be hoping for a return to the playoffs now he’s back and healthy. A new GM saw the Packers dip into free agency more aggressively this offseason and after nine years they let go of Dom Capers and brought in Mike Pettine as a new defensive coordinator. It hard not to see the Packers in contention come the end of year as long as Rodgers stays healthy and if things gel for them they could be one of the better teams in the league.

The Detroit Lions went nine and seven but failed to make the playoffs and decided to go for a new head coach. They brought in Matt Patricia from the Patriots and a lot of the focus this year will be on just how good a coach the Belichick pupil is. Having left a team with the thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA last season , Patricia takes over a Lions team that ranked nineteenth so we shall have to see, but I like the continuity of Jim Bob Cooter staying in charge of offence and continuing his successful work with Matthew Stafford. I can’t take too much from pre-season as I didn’t see any of the starters, but they were not impressive against the Browns and they could be a candidate for a team who struggles. We’ll just have to see how things work out and a lot depends on how successfully Patricia blends what he learnt in New England with his own beliefs now he’s the man who is ultimately responsible.

I was feeling things were on the up for the Chicago Bears even before they swung the trade for Khalil Mack. I’ve seen their offence improve over the course of the pre-season and whilst I’m not necessarily convinced by Mitchell Trubisky, with the skills players the Bears brought in through free-agency and new head coach Matt Nagy’s offensive scheme the Bears almost can’t help but improve on offence. The defence was pretty good before the addition of Mack and rookie linebacker Roquan Smith so I can see why there is a buzz around this team. How many wins this will actually yield this year I don’t know, but I like the aggressive approach the Bears took having realised how short a window an NFL franchises gets to exploit having a quarterback on a rookie contract. Whilst I didn’t like how they manoeuvred to get Trubisky in the draft, I like how they surrounded him with talent this offseason. Now let’s see just how big a dividend the team gets.

NFC East

The Philadelphia Eagles come into the season with one of the strongest rosters on paper, but there are a fare few injuries floating round apart from the Carson Wentz making his way back from the ACL and LCL tears. More worrying is that the Super Bowl winning Nick Foles and the first team offence have not scored a touchdown in pre-season. I think they are still favourites for the season and after the Super Bowl win Doug Pederson had all the affirmation he needs to stick to his plans but there may be a difficult few weeks ahead.

The Dallas Cowboys have lost a lot of franchise cornerstones over the last couple of seasons and big questions remain over who Dak Prescott will be throwing the ball to so a lot rests on how well Ezekiel Elliot can run the ball. That won’t be helped by the injuries to an offensive line that has been the cornerstone of the Cowboys’ offence in recent years. Meanwhile the defence has been more impacted by whether Sean Lee plays or not than any other unit has been by a single player that is not a quarterback. I’m not ready to declare them non-competitive just yet as there is potential for them to have a good year but it would not surprise me if they do in fact struggle, particularly as Jason Garrett doesn’t fill with a lot of confidence as head coach if this team starts to have difficulties.

Washington failed to make the playoffs last season and after several seasons of franchise tagging Kirk Cousins they traded for Alex Smith and then promptly gave him an extension. I am not convinced by the roster moves over recent years and I have a feeling that Jay Gruden will likely have his team win another 7-9 games like they have the last three seasons. There have been positive noised about Smith’s performance in the pre-season and when healthy Jordan Reed has been one of the most effective tight ends in the league in the passing game but I don’t know if the changes that have been made indicate a big improvement.

The New York Giants were a car crash last season with Ben McAdoo losing the locker room, the offence failing to function minus Odell Beckham and the defence slipping to a rank of eighteenth by DVOA having been second in 2016. This year’s Giants have a new GM and head coach who doubled down on Eli Manning despite his flagging form in recent years. They brought in Nate Solder from New England to solidify their offensive line at left tackle and drafted Saquon Barkley second in the draft without trading down and ignoring the various quarterbacks they could have had. There are genuine arguments about taking even as transcendent a talent as Barkley is thought to be over a quarterback given their respective values to a team and career length, but it seems they could have also struck a deal to move down but this what they have to play with now. The worry is how much does Manning still have in the tank but the coaching situation has to better than last year and so whilst I expect an improvement, I don’t know quite how much of a step up the Giants will make. I just hope they don’t regret not grabbing a quarterback when they had the second pick in the draft, who know when they’ll next pick that high again and they certainly will be hoping it isn’t for a while.

NFC South

The NFC south was one of the most competitive division s in the NFL last season with three teams finishing with double digit wins and making the playoffs.

The New Orleans Saints had a franchise changing draft bringing in enough defensive talent to shoot their ranking up into the top ten by DVOA whilst Alvin Kamara generated 1901 yards of offence. There were whispers that Drew Brees’s arm was not quite the same but he’s still as good as any quarterback in the league and threw for four thousand yards for the twelfth straight time! Yes he’s thirty-nine, but there don’t seem to have been any serious signs of decline yet and the Saints have just traded for Teddy Bridgewater who looked excellent throwing the ball for the Jets in pre-season. I’m not sure I would have invested the amount of draft capital the Saints did to pick such a raw pass rush talent in the first round as they did in this year’s draft but I suspect they will be there or there abouts at the end of the season.

The Carolina Panthers’ experiment with changing the way Cam Newton plays failed early in the season but he now has a new offensive coordinator in Norv Turner and I will be very interested to see how this works out. They do have multiple injuries at offensive tackle so it may be a work in progress but for his occasionally maddening accuracy issues, Newton is an effective quarterback in the style that he plays. If the defence continues to be in the top ten by DVOA then I would feel confident in saying that the Panthers will contend. My only concern is that for the last six years the Panthers have alternated double digit win seasons with seven win seasons, although one of them did net a playoff appearance. I certainly don’t believe this constitutes a pattern that is going to suddenly manifest itself in a seven win season but I do worry about their Panthers consistency from year to year. As ever we shall just have to see what the season holds.

The Atlanta Falcons were coming off a difficult Super Bowl loss last season and losing their offensive coordinator to the San Francisco 49ers. They were still a good team but the offence didn’t quite flow under Steve Sarkiesian but the defence continued to shape up under head coach Dan Quinn’s direction and they made it to the playoffs once more. Having adjusted Julio Jones’s contract and extended Matt Ryan’s contract the Falcons look set to challenge once again this season and may feel they weren’t far away last season in the playoffs.

The other team in the NFC South very much feel like the other team. Head coach Dirk Koetter was promoted because of his relationship with Jameis Winston who so desperately wants to be a leader but hasn’t quite managed that or to develop his play. Winston starts the season on suspension after groping an Uber driver and this franchise feels like it is disarray and it would not exactly surprise me if this team struggles all season. We shall have to see how the season plays out and it wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong, but come the end of the year I suspect it could be all change for the Buccaneers.

NFC West

Last season’s surprise package in the NFC were the LA Rams who were transformed by young head coach Sean McVay who overhauled the offence to reignite Todd Gurley and rescue Jared Goff from the category of draft bust whilst leaving Wade Phillip alone to run the defence. Not content with making it to the playoffs last season they added Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Sam Shields, and Ndamukong Suh to the defence. It’s clear they have faith in Wade Phillips to control that combustible mix of personalities but there is no doubting these players talent and if both sides of the ball live up to expectations they will be one of the more formidable teams in the league. I’m not sure if it is possible to live up to some of the hype but the Rams would be my pick as favourite for this division.

The Seattle Seahawks had a tough time last year as injuries hobbled the legion of boom and it has been all change for the franchise in the offseason. Not a lot is expected of them, particularly with Earl Thomas holding out but I’m ready to give up on Pete Carroll just yet. The offensive line might finally have solidified a little according to those watching closely and Rashaad Penny, the Seahawks’ rookie running back, has been turning heads in pre-season. As has Australian rookie punter Michael Dickson who managed to kick two fifty yard plus punts out of bounds within the five yard line in one game. I’m not prepared to guarantee anything other than a competitive team, but I think they could surprise a few people this season.

The Arizona Cardinals seem a strange prospect for me without Bruce Arians never mind having to find a new starting quarterback. We know that Sam Bradford is unlikely to make it through the season without getting injured and that receiving legend Larry Fitzgerald deservers a better team, but David Johnson is returning from a wrist injury and so he should get back to something like his previous form. However, with a new coaching staff and so much turmoil it feels like whilst this team in transition might rally round and surprise people, it could also really struggle and something says to me that struggle is the more likely option. I always want to see teams and players do well so I hope to be proved wrong.

Finally, in this two day scramble of writing madness we come to the only team with a quarterback who has an undefeated starting record in the NFL. It is a small sample size so whilst I’m certain that Jimmy Garoppolo’s steak won’t continue throughout this season, the hope that he and first year head coach Kyle Shanahan gave last year will continue to come to fruition this year. However, they have already lost running back Jerick McKinnon to an ACL injury and it’s worth remembering the place that the 49ers started from when John Lynch came in to be Shanahan’s GM last year. I expect the 49ers to be competitive even if they can’t replicate the five game winning streak from the end of last year’s season but the fans from San Francisco may have to wait until next season to return to the playoffs given the size of the rebuild job that had to be taken on. I wouldn’t necessarily put any money on that though…

AFC Preview

04 Tuesday Sep 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

18-09-04 AFC

With the new season only days away I thought I would take you through a whistle-stop tour of the league starting with an AFC preview and I’ll give the NFC teams their own post before the Philadelphia Eagle and Atlanta Falcons get things under way on Thursday.

I don’t particularly like making predictions as there are too many variables and injury luck is can be such a huge part of team success so I’ll be breaking the divisions up into favourites, competitive, and likely to struggle as I work my way round the division compass so without further ado let’s make a start on the .

AFC North

Much as it is painful for a Bengals fan to say it, the favourite to take the AFC North division is still the Pittsburgh Steelers. They may have questions at linebacker thanks to Ryan Shazier’s injury, but the defence still finished top ten last year by DVOA in and the options in their offence are still terrifying. Time is ticking for Ben Roethlisberger but as long as he doesn’t suffer a dramatic fall off then this is going to be one of the teams of the conference who should have their eyes on the Super Bowl.

The AFC North is always a tough division, and even when the Browns are struggling they are often a tough out, but not so much under Hue Jackson. However, with a defence that has looked good in pre-season and the additions of Jarvis Landy and Tyrod Taylor as well as new offensive co-ordinator Toddy Haley it at least feels like the infrastructure for success is more solid. In a position to let rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield develop and not rush him I think the Browns will be more competitive than last season, but whether their ill-discipline (they got penalised a lot in pre-season) will allow them to win games I don’t know. I think we’ll know a lot more about this team by the end of the first four games.

The Baltimore Ravens are another team who are perennially competitive but had to do it with defence and special teams last year. With a kicker like Justin Tucker you can mask a lot of deficiencies in offence but the thing the Ravens coaches might be most happy about having drafted Lamar Jackson this year is the fire it seems to have lit under long time quarterback Joe Flacco. He may also have been helped by better receiving options and being healthy in the offseason for the first time in two years but if the Ravens’ Super Bowl winning play caller can lead the offensive to a better ranking than twenty-first by DVOA the Ravens will be right in contention for the playoffs again.

I’ve written a fair amount about the Cincinnati Bengals this pre-season and it is telling that neither of the offensive tackles two years that they drafted to prepare for a transition of talent have worked out whilst Andrew Whitworth looked great for the LA Rams last year. With new playbooks on both sides of the ball there have been a lot of changes to coaching and the roster. Whilst the Bengals have another young team there seemed to be a lot to like and if the O-line gels, then Andy Dalton should have a much easier time finding his myriad of skill players. I’m not pencilling them into the playoffs, but I’m not ruling it out and I wasn’t sure that would be the case when it was announced the Marvin Lewis was coming back.

AFC East

Is this the year that the New England Patriots falter? For the first time Tom Brady was not ever present through the off-season, their first round offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn ruptured his Achillies after they let starting left tackle Nate Solder leave in free-agency, and this was a team that went to the Super Bowl with a defence ranked thirty-first in the league by DVOA so they can ill afford an offensive wobble. I think we’re all at the point where we’ll believe Tom Brady is done when he has signed his retirement papers, but what will help them is that none of the rest of the division are exactly standing up as challengers at the moment and so the Patriots look to be favourites still. This could finally change though.

The Buffalo Bills made the playoffs for the first time in eighteen attempts last seasons, but they responded to this by cutting the quarterback that got them there, not signing the linebacker that led the league in tackles and trading their left tackle to the Bengals in the draft manoeuvres required to get their quarterback of the future. Have traded away AJ McCarron they have opted to go with rookie Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman as their QBs, but whilst Peterman has looked good in pre-season and Allen has flashed, the Bengals defensive line had a field day against Buffalo’s o-line and it could be a very long season for whoever starts. I was impressed with everything Sean McDermott did last season bar benching Tyrod Taylor but I don’t think this season’s roster is better than last years and I have a nasty feeling they will struggle for a lot of the season.

If you trade away your best offensive and defensive players for chemistry reasons, you had better have an awful lot of talent coming in and I’m not sure that Miami Dolphins do. I thought they had a good draft and I would say Adam Gase is a good coach but I’m not at all sure of the roster construction and this feels like the latest in a long series of make or break seasons for Ryan Tannehill. I believe that Gase can keep the locker room together and make them competitive but it would not surprise me if they fall into a difficult season. Nothing would make me happier than to be proved wrong, if only to cheer Dan through the season.

Finally we have the New York Jets, and I though Todd Bowles did an excellent job of coaching with a lack of talent on the roster last season and not sure many other coaches would have got as many wins. The most ready of the rookie quarterbacks fell into their laps in the draft and Sam Darnold looked good enough in pre-season that the Jets traded Teddy Bridgewater to the New Orleans Saints. I think it will take another or season or two to turn things round and I don’t know if Bowles will get the chance to complete the job, but I can see the Jets equalling their record of last season. There will be ups and downs with a rookie quarterback but the real question for this season is have the Jets finally got a franchise QB. Everything else after that can wait.

AFC South

The Jacksonville Jaguars continued to build their defence, stuck with Blake Bortles and their big free agent signing was a offensive guard. I thought that Bortles might have learnt a thing or two in last season’s playoff run but with the exodus at receiver and the injury to Marqise Lee this team will be as reliant as ever on their defence and the run game. The good news is that the defence will be no less scary and they should rightly be considered the favourites for this division.

The Houston Texans may have only won four games last season, but they revealed they could have a bright future as long as the young quarterback Deshaun Watson can recover his blistering form from last season before his knee injury. With the defence hoping a number of players stay healthy, including JJ Watt this could be really good team even if the offensive line looks to be a big problem. There are a lot of ifs there so whilst the Texans will start out competitively, how long they will remain so is the big question.

The Tennessee Titans ground their way into the playoffs with a run first offence and a defence that ranked twenty-first in the league by DVOA. This was not enough to save Mike Mularkey his job and there rookie head coach Mike Vraebel is hoping that Matt LaFleur can revitalise the offence and fourth year quarterback Marcus Mariota. The coaches with links to Bill Belichick have not necessary flourished as head coaches and Vraebel has limited experience as the man with ultimate responsibility so I am very curious to see how he goes. The honest answer is I’m not sure so this is one of the teams we’ll need to follow closely through the start of the season.

The Indianapolis Colts have struggled mightily with Andrew Luck being out injured but this also laid bare the problems with the rest of the roster and whilst there are signs that things are improving in the second year of Chris Ballard’s rebuild, a lot will depend on Andrew Lucks surgically repaired and extensively rehabbed shoulder. The good news is that he’s back to starting but new head coach Frank Reich will be hoping that he can get enough from his franchise quarterback that the season can be a success, but I have a feeling that being competitive would qualify as just that and would be a good place to start.

AFC South

The Kansas City Chiefs won the division last year and I have too much faith in Andy Reid to see this team as anything other than competitive and I would place them as favourites to win the division. That is despite trading Alex Smith to Washington to promote Patrick Mahomes as the starter after a season where the young quarterback sat on the bench. Mahomes has the arms to make use of the myriad of skills players the Chiefs can use in their offence that has borrowed liberally from college, whilst their defence was only ranked thirtieth by DVOA last year when they won the division. It wouldn’t take much to improve that ranking and with the potential of their offence the Chiefs could be one of the most fun teams to watch this season.

The other potential favourite in this division could be the LA Chargers but it would require them to get out of their own way and they couldn’t quite manage that last season. The abiding image of Philip Rivers for me these days is a player somehow functioning as an effective quarterback despite minimal protection from his line. The defence was just outside of the top ten with a fearsome pass rush led by Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa and they should be competitive again this season. The problem is that they have a nasty habit of losing close games and their ‘home’ games in LA were frequently more like home games for the opposition thanks to fan turnout. I’d like to think they can improve but I’m not willing to just outright declare it, although I’d be very willing to be proved wrong again.

I’m not entirely sure where to begin with the currently Oakland soon to be Las Vegas Raiders. The big move of the off-season would have been luring Jon Gruden out of the commentary booth nine years after he last coached except they have just traded Khalil Mack, one of the best young defensive players in the league, to the Chicago Bears. The reasoning is that the Mack’s contract demands were just too big, and the Bears wasted no time in signing Mack to a six year deal with $90 million guaranteed days after Aaron Donald signed a contract with $87 million guaranteed. The difference between the three franchises is that the Rams still have a young quarterback on their rookie contract as does the Bears, whilst the Raiders have already signed Derek Carr to a five year extension. The issue is that Gruden has been out of the league for a while, even if he was staying plugged into the NFL through his media gig, and the defence his brother Jay Gruden [I appear to have gone made, too many ex-Bengal coordinators involved as it is in fact Paul Guenther who is the new defensive coordinator – Ed.] takes over was ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA with Khalil Mack. I’m really not sure what to expect out of the Raiders this year, and whilst I can see the salary cap argument to an extent (I don’t study it hard, maybe that’s a task for next off-season) the Mack trade amongst others does nothing to help the Raiders now and I think this club will be in for a very interesting time this year.

Last year’s AFC West strugglers the Denver Broncos will be hoping that the addition of Case Keenum at quarterback will be enough of an upgrade to the offence to give the still competitive if retooled defence a chance of winning games. In the one game I saw them this preseason the offensive line still looked to be a problem but after a good pre-season from Chad Kelly, the Paxton Lynch development plan has finally been shelved. It is way too soon to question a GM who has won a Super Bowl and given his history as franchise quarterback you would think that the job is John Elway’s as long as he wants it. However, whilst he’s made a number of sharp moves in free-agency, his record in the draft is a bit patchier and his choice of Vance Joseph as head coach didn’t exactly yield the early returns that Elway would have hoped for. Still, if either Keenum or Kelly can make the offence competitive then the Broncos will be a team no one will want to face, especially at home and that could be enough for them to be in the playoff race come December.