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2018 Week One Picks

09 Sunday Sep 2018

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So here it is, the first week of picks and having dropped a point to Dan already let’s see if I can pick some points back up again!

Before we get going though there’s the small matter of this year’s trivia competition so here’s a reminder of the week one question:

‘All teams aspire to finish as high as they can so we kick off the new season with a question about the Highest Altitude of NFL Stadia. At 5280 feet the Broncos Mile High Stadium is way too easy as a question but, at 1070 feet, who comes in second?’

So my first thought was that Dan’s dad is just too good at this and I’m betting that I can’t have the Raiders when they play in Mexico City. I mentally went through the NFL divisions and had a couple of thoughts, although my knowledge of American geography is not that strong, and in the end I’m going to plump for the Buffalo Bills. Now I get to check what Dan thought and feel like an idiot…

‘So, I don’t know the answer to this, but to guess I’m between two – one with an element of Logic (Chicago – it’s windy, makes sense that it’s high up) and one because I just have a feeling (Detroit). I’ll go for Chicago I think!’

Remember the actual answer will be revealed in The Wrong Football Newsletter that is sent out Wednesday nights so sign up here.

Bills @ Ravens (-5.5)

I am worried about the Bills’ offensive line and the effect it will have on their young quarterbacks and the Ravens look to be competitive this year with better receivers than they’ve had in recent seasons so I’m going with the Ravens in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

‘While this could go either way, the Bills are already a bit banged up going into week one, so I’m going for Baltimore’

Bengals @ Colts (-3.5)

I’m feeling good about how the Bengals looked in pre-season and I come into this game relatively confident about how they are going to play. Yes the Colts beat them in pre-season but Andrew Luck has been out for a long time with his shoulder injury and they are still in the process of rebuilding a roster that sorely lacked talent. I think the Bengals are the better team (please don’t let me be wrong!) and so with an extra half point I’m taking the road underdog Bengals.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

‘Almost everything wants me to go for the Colts here, especially with Andrew Luck being back, but something’s telling me the Bengals are going to do it! Hopefully that doesn’t jinx you mate!’

Steelers @ Browns (+6.5)

This is a bit of a tricky one for me as I think the Steelers are the better team, but they have a nasty habit of playing down to their opposition and they will be without Le’Veon Bell who still hasn’t signed back with his team. I’m wary of the Hard Knocks curse but I thought watching the pre-season games that the Browns were more competitive and this point total means the Browns only have to stay within a touchdown. This game would be a lot easier to pick in a week or two but I think Myles Garrett is going to a real menace to quarterbacks and I’m going to give the Browns a go. Watch Antonio Brown make me look like a fool!

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

‘If Hard Knocks has taught me anything it’s that the Browns will win a game this year. Not this one though. Away Win.’

Titans @ Dolphins (+1.5)

There are so many unknown variables in this one. For the Titans what effect will Mike Vrabel have on his team and will new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur be able to unlock Marcus Mariota’s full potential. Meanwhile, the Dolphins traded or cut their best players on defence and offence whilst quarterback Ryan Tannehill is coming back from a year off with a knee injury and I trust Adam Gase as a head coach. The Titans may well end the season with the better record but in a game I’m not sure of I’m going to grab the points for the home team.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

‘Dolphins. Obviously.’

49ers @ Vikings (-5.5)

This should be a really fascinating game given that it features the unbeaten Jimmy Garoppolo (it’s just fun to type that so I’m going to enjoy it until it stops being a thing) and the improving 49ers taking on the Vikings with their new quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Vikings had a real home advantage in their new stadium last year and I expect it to be the same this year. The loss of the Jerick Mckinnon to a torn ACL is a cruel blow for the 49ers and so despite the points and my nervousness about the streak, I’m picking the Vikings to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

‘I think this is going to be a good year for the modern day Purple People Eaters this year, and I think they’ll start with a home win. Minnesota.’

Texans @ Patriots (-6.5)

There are enough warning signs in New England that I think this game could be competitive, but the problem is that it is a big could. The Texans defence has all the pieces you could want whilst their offence sees the return of Deshaun Watson who set the league alight last year before his injury. The Patriots come into the season with questions at the skills position and a forty-one year old quarterback but you just know that we can’t discount Belichick and Brady until we actually see it go wrong. However, this is enough points for me to take the Texans and I just hope that I’m not reading too much into the Texans keeping the game within three last season.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

‘New England are going to have another very New England year. I’ll put them down for a win by a TD.’

Buccaneers @ Saints (-9.5)

This number of points should worry me in an opening game but the fact is that Saints are at home and have everything setup to follow last year’s season with another good one and I’m not at all convinced by the Buccaneers. There’s plenty of potential for the Bucs to make me eat my words but in week one I’m just swinging with my convictions and that says the Saints cover this and win.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

‘The 9.5 point spread on this one makes it the most difficult line of the week. I think I’ll go with New Orleans but won’t be surprised if I get this one wrong!’

Jaguars @ Giants (+2.5)

This is a trick game for me as the Jaguars look set to continue to have an amazing defence but their offence could still continue to struggle to move the ball through the air given the receiving options available. However, just how much of a turnaround are the Giants capable off and specifically how well can Eli Manning play. This game represents a five-and-a-half-point swing and I’m so tempted by the points but the Jaguars only have to win by a field goal to cover this. I could really regret this but I’m not quite ready to call this one for the Giants just yet as I haven’t seen them.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

‘Jags for me. They’re going to have another good year this year. I’d like to see them at least make the playoffs again.’

Chiefs @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers have all the players you could need but might have a home disadvantage thanks to their status as LA’s other team and the Chiefs are going to have the offensive capacity to stay in most games. This feels like a real toss up pick and should be a great game but the half point just has me backing the Chiefs to keep this one to at least a field goal, particularly when Andy Reid has time to prepare.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

‘Struggling to call this one as I could see it going either way. I’ll go Chargers with the home advantage.’

Cowboys @ Panthers (-2.5)

I’m not sure about the Cowboys given the strength of the offence has been shaken by injuries and whilst I feel like in the long run they could be okay, a road game against a Panthers team who are strong at home is not an easy start to the season. The Panthers have their own questions on the offensive line but with them only having to win by field goal to cover then I’m going with the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

‘Road win, but I’ve changed my mind on this line twice since I started looking at it!’

Seahawks @ Broncos (-2.5)

This is a tricky pick for me given that I think that the Seahawks will be more competitive than most seem to think, but they start the season on the road in Denver, which is not an easy place to play. The Broncos have another offensive line that I’m not convince by and this could hamper Case Keenum who had a career year in Minnesota but who also benefitted by having one of the best pairs of receivers in the league so there are big questions about whether he can repeat or improve on that performance. This could turn into a real slug fest and I don’t have a strong opinion either way so given the Broncos home advantage and that they only need a field goal to win I’m reluctantly going with them.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

‘I could do with the Seahawks having a good year this year, especially with Russell Wilson under centre for our Fantasy team! I’ll back them for week one.’

Washington @ Cardinals (-0.5)

I’m really not sure what to expect from the Cardinals with the change in the coaching staff and them starting Sam Bradford at quarterback but the same basically goes for Washington so who knows? This game is basically a pick’em and given that Washington have not started fast in recent years and are on the road I’ll back the Cardinals and the return of David Johnson but I don’t feel strongly about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

‘Another one that could go either way so is only being called on the basis of Arizona being at home!’

Bears @ Packers (-8.5)

The Packers have Aaron Rodgers back and a new defensive coordinator as they welcome a Bears team that have just acquired Khalil Mack and will be radically different on offence this season. The Bears have generated a lot of buzz this offseason but it is unclear how much Mack will play in this game. This is a lot of points and Packers’ head coach Mike McCarthy has a tendency to play conservative with a lead so whilst I’m not saying the Bears will win this game, I do think they can keep it to within nine points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Bears

‘Packers are going to win this one, but not by more than a touchdown so I’m going for the Bears to cover.’

Jets @ Lions (-6.5)

I am really not sure about this game as there are lot of changing factors in this game. Todd Bowles kept the Jets competitive despite a roster depleted of talent but they start this season with a rookie quarterback whilst the Lions may have looked bad in the pre-season game I saw them but it was the final game where no starters played. A touchdown win seems too rich for me at first look but I can’t bring myself to pick a rookie quarterback with questionable receivers on the road in his debut so Lions it is…

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

‘J-E-T-S – Lose, Lose, Lose!’

Rams @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Raiders may be at home and getting points but they have a head coach who hasn’t actually coached in nine years and who has just traded away their best player. In the long run it might be a good salary cap move but it is not a move you can look your current team in the eye and say you made them better for this game. This is a tough start for the Raiders and whilst we haven’t seen what tricks Sean McVay has prepared for this season, he has catapulted himself into the discussion of best head coaches in the league after one season and so this is still not enough points for me to pick the Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

‘LA win in Monday Night’s game, followed by everyone copying me and jumping on the bandwagon and the odds dropping!!’

Transitioning into the New Season

09 Sunday Sep 2018

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18-09-09 Wentz and Foles

Image Credit: sportingnews.com

So I thought I would take this last Sunday without coaching tape to talk about I would write a little about the last Hard Knocks episode and the first game of the season.

I mentioned last week that the timing of the last episode is always slightly off as the cuts, which are the big feature of the last show are problematic to watch as your intruding on very difficult time for the players involved and the tension is often already gone as the cuts are big news so you often already know who has and hasn’t made it. This is even more so here in the UK with our delayed showing so we couldn’t watch episode five until the day of the start of the season.

This week’s episode got to the game more quickly as the ending is focussed around the cuts, but it was interesting to see Rogan Broback go into the game, start tight and then settle in before throwing a sharp touchdown price. However, this year none of the bubble players that have been featured this season made the team with even Carl Nassib getting cut a day later after the Browns were down to fifty-three to faclilitate a roster move and unusually, he was the only player who got picked up by the time the episode was aired or as far as I can tell now. It has to be hard for Nate Orchard who had a pick six interception in the final game to not make the roster or get picked up. We saw Devon Cajuste working on his blocking and keep trying, but whilst he’s apparently had interest from teams, none of them have sought to pick up the converted tight end yet but he could get a look as injuries start to pile up as could Orchard.

We then moved from bottom of the roster moves to the excitement of the new season that didn’t quite take off on Thursday night as the Atlanta Falcons travelled to Philadelphia to face the Super Bowl champion Eagles. If there is a real worry for the NFL office from this game it was the number of penalties in this game and whilst it wasn’t full of leading with the head penalties there were twenty-six flags for a total of two hundred and thirty-six yards.

For the Falcons the frustration was that they moved the ball well and Julio Jones looked really good but they were flat bad in the red zone and how Jones is off the field as often as he seems to be close the goal line I do not know. At least make your opponent cover the most dangerous skills player you have! I was also a little worried by some of Matt Ryan’s throws and he did not live up to the contract he just signed. It’s absolutely not time to panic, if your home record is good you only have to win a few games on the road to get to the playoffs but the Falcons were right there and couldn’t win the game.

As for the Eagles, the defence is still based on a fearsome pass rush and looked good but the clamour for Carson Wentz to get back into the game will only rise after this performance by Nick Foles. However, the team got the win and I’d forgotten what an effect having Darren Sproles has on the offence. They showed flashes and perhaps Foles will always win games where he has a catch but the Eagles will be looking to improve next week.

The important thing in week one never mind the opening game is not to over react but let’s hope there are few less flags flying in the rest of the games as we get going with the rest of the week one.

Competition Thursday: Week 1

06 Thursday Sep 2018

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Welcome to the fifth year of The Wrong Football’s Pick Competition between Dan and me. The current overall standings are three seasons to one for me and this year we will be making more of a feature of Competition Thursday where I’ll update you on how we went last week with our picks, the overall standings, and new this year we’ll be bringing the trivia competition from the podcast to the blog.

Each week Dan’s dad will be setting us a question that Dan and I will be answering with the Sunday picks. Because we are gentlemen there will be no looking up the answers on the internet. The answer will be confirmed in the Wednesday night newsletter so do sign-up here as apart from that answer you’ll also get a roundup of the week in the NFL and the blog as well as a sneak preview of Thursday’s trivia question.

Anyway, without further ado, onto tonight’s opening game!

Falcons @ Eagles (-3.5)

It’s always tricky to pick games early in the season given that pre-season is not that strong an indicator of how a team will play, but the Eagles have enough injuries and an absence of touchdowns for the first team offence in pre-season for me to be tempted by the extra half point for the underdogs. The Falcons were not so far away from beating the Eagles in the playoffs last season and will have revenge on their mind so whilst I could regret this, I’m taking the half point.

As for Dan, ‘Last year’s Super Bowl champions are going to kick off the year with a win. Eagles for me.’

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Week 1 Trivia

All teams aspire to finish as high as they can so we kick off the new season with a question about the Highest Altitude of NFL Stadia. At 5280 feet the Broncos Mile High Stadium is way too easy as a question but, at 1070 feet, who comes in second?

NFC Preview

05 Wednesday Sep 2018

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18-09-05 NFC-2

So having set myself this ridiculous task, it’s time to try to finish my whistle-stop previews in time for the start of the season so on to the NFC!

NFC North

The Minnesota Vikings won the division at a canter last season and whilst they might not have it all their own way this year now the Packers have Aaron Rodgers back and healthy, they are one of the fancied teams in the NFC. Having let three quarterbacks walk at the start of free agency they signed Kirk Cousins and expect to match offensive production with their fearsome defence. The offensive line is the one obvious weakness but in Mike Zimmer they have one of the best coaches in the league and I think they will be there or there about come December.

The Green Bay Packers had a down season last year thanks to Aaron Rodgers’s broken collar bone, but they will be hoping for a return to the playoffs now he’s back and healthy. A new GM saw the Packers dip into free agency more aggressively this offseason and after nine years they let go of Dom Capers and brought in Mike Pettine as a new defensive coordinator. It hard not to see the Packers in contention come the end of year as long as Rodgers stays healthy and if things gel for them they could be one of the better teams in the league.

The Detroit Lions went nine and seven but failed to make the playoffs and decided to go for a new head coach. They brought in Matt Patricia from the Patriots and a lot of the focus this year will be on just how good a coach the Belichick pupil is. Having left a team with the thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA last season , Patricia takes over a Lions team that ranked nineteenth so we shall have to see, but I like the continuity of Jim Bob Cooter staying in charge of offence and continuing his successful work with Matthew Stafford. I can’t take too much from pre-season as I didn’t see any of the starters, but they were not impressive against the Browns and they could be a candidate for a team who struggles. We’ll just have to see how things work out and a lot depends on how successfully Patricia blends what he learnt in New England with his own beliefs now he’s the man who is ultimately responsible.

I was feeling things were on the up for the Chicago Bears even before they swung the trade for Khalil Mack. I’ve seen their offence improve over the course of the pre-season and whilst I’m not necessarily convinced by Mitchell Trubisky, with the skills players the Bears brought in through free-agency and new head coach Matt Nagy’s offensive scheme the Bears almost can’t help but improve on offence. The defence was pretty good before the addition of Mack and rookie linebacker Roquan Smith so I can see why there is a buzz around this team. How many wins this will actually yield this year I don’t know, but I like the aggressive approach the Bears took having realised how short a window an NFL franchises gets to exploit having a quarterback on a rookie contract. Whilst I didn’t like how they manoeuvred to get Trubisky in the draft, I like how they surrounded him with talent this offseason. Now let’s see just how big a dividend the team gets.

NFC East

The Philadelphia Eagles come into the season with one of the strongest rosters on paper, but there are a fare few injuries floating round apart from the Carson Wentz making his way back from the ACL and LCL tears. More worrying is that the Super Bowl winning Nick Foles and the first team offence have not scored a touchdown in pre-season. I think they are still favourites for the season and after the Super Bowl win Doug Pederson had all the affirmation he needs to stick to his plans but there may be a difficult few weeks ahead.

The Dallas Cowboys have lost a lot of franchise cornerstones over the last couple of seasons and big questions remain over who Dak Prescott will be throwing the ball to so a lot rests on how well Ezekiel Elliot can run the ball. That won’t be helped by the injuries to an offensive line that has been the cornerstone of the Cowboys’ offence in recent years. Meanwhile the defence has been more impacted by whether Sean Lee plays or not than any other unit has been by a single player that is not a quarterback. I’m not ready to declare them non-competitive just yet as there is potential for them to have a good year but it would not surprise me if they do in fact struggle, particularly as Jason Garrett doesn’t fill with a lot of confidence as head coach if this team starts to have difficulties.

Washington failed to make the playoffs last season and after several seasons of franchise tagging Kirk Cousins they traded for Alex Smith and then promptly gave him an extension. I am not convinced by the roster moves over recent years and I have a feeling that Jay Gruden will likely have his team win another 7-9 games like they have the last three seasons. There have been positive noised about Smith’s performance in the pre-season and when healthy Jordan Reed has been one of the most effective tight ends in the league in the passing game but I don’t know if the changes that have been made indicate a big improvement.

The New York Giants were a car crash last season with Ben McAdoo losing the locker room, the offence failing to function minus Odell Beckham and the defence slipping to a rank of eighteenth by DVOA having been second in 2016. This year’s Giants have a new GM and head coach who doubled down on Eli Manning despite his flagging form in recent years. They brought in Nate Solder from New England to solidify their offensive line at left tackle and drafted Saquon Barkley second in the draft without trading down and ignoring the various quarterbacks they could have had. There are genuine arguments about taking even as transcendent a talent as Barkley is thought to be over a quarterback given their respective values to a team and career length, but it seems they could have also struck a deal to move down but this what they have to play with now. The worry is how much does Manning still have in the tank but the coaching situation has to better than last year and so whilst I expect an improvement, I don’t know quite how much of a step up the Giants will make. I just hope they don’t regret not grabbing a quarterback when they had the second pick in the draft, who know when they’ll next pick that high again and they certainly will be hoping it isn’t for a while.

NFC South

The NFC south was one of the most competitive division s in the NFL last season with three teams finishing with double digit wins and making the playoffs.

The New Orleans Saints had a franchise changing draft bringing in enough defensive talent to shoot their ranking up into the top ten by DVOA whilst Alvin Kamara generated 1901 yards of offence. There were whispers that Drew Brees’s arm was not quite the same but he’s still as good as any quarterback in the league and threw for four thousand yards for the twelfth straight time! Yes he’s thirty-nine, but there don’t seem to have been any serious signs of decline yet and the Saints have just traded for Teddy Bridgewater who looked excellent throwing the ball for the Jets in pre-season. I’m not sure I would have invested the amount of draft capital the Saints did to pick such a raw pass rush talent in the first round as they did in this year’s draft but I suspect they will be there or there abouts at the end of the season.

The Carolina Panthers’ experiment with changing the way Cam Newton plays failed early in the season but he now has a new offensive coordinator in Norv Turner and I will be very interested to see how this works out. They do have multiple injuries at offensive tackle so it may be a work in progress but for his occasionally maddening accuracy issues, Newton is an effective quarterback in the style that he plays. If the defence continues to be in the top ten by DVOA then I would feel confident in saying that the Panthers will contend. My only concern is that for the last six years the Panthers have alternated double digit win seasons with seven win seasons, although one of them did net a playoff appearance. I certainly don’t believe this constitutes a pattern that is going to suddenly manifest itself in a seven win season but I do worry about their Panthers consistency from year to year. As ever we shall just have to see what the season holds.

The Atlanta Falcons were coming off a difficult Super Bowl loss last season and losing their offensive coordinator to the San Francisco 49ers. They were still a good team but the offence didn’t quite flow under Steve Sarkiesian but the defence continued to shape up under head coach Dan Quinn’s direction and they made it to the playoffs once more. Having adjusted Julio Jones’s contract and extended Matt Ryan’s contract the Falcons look set to challenge once again this season and may feel they weren’t far away last season in the playoffs.

The other team in the NFC South very much feel like the other team. Head coach Dirk Koetter was promoted because of his relationship with Jameis Winston who so desperately wants to be a leader but hasn’t quite managed that or to develop his play. Winston starts the season on suspension after groping an Uber driver and this franchise feels like it is disarray and it would not exactly surprise me if this team struggles all season. We shall have to see how the season plays out and it wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong, but come the end of the year I suspect it could be all change for the Buccaneers.

NFC West

Last season’s surprise package in the NFC were the LA Rams who were transformed by young head coach Sean McVay who overhauled the offence to reignite Todd Gurley and rescue Jared Goff from the category of draft bust whilst leaving Wade Phillip alone to run the defence. Not content with making it to the playoffs last season they added Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Sam Shields, and Ndamukong Suh to the defence. It’s clear they have faith in Wade Phillips to control that combustible mix of personalities but there is no doubting these players talent and if both sides of the ball live up to expectations they will be one of the more formidable teams in the league. I’m not sure if it is possible to live up to some of the hype but the Rams would be my pick as favourite for this division.

The Seattle Seahawks had a tough time last year as injuries hobbled the legion of boom and it has been all change for the franchise in the offseason. Not a lot is expected of them, particularly with Earl Thomas holding out but I’m ready to give up on Pete Carroll just yet. The offensive line might finally have solidified a little according to those watching closely and Rashaad Penny, the Seahawks’ rookie running back, has been turning heads in pre-season. As has Australian rookie punter Michael Dickson who managed to kick two fifty yard plus punts out of bounds within the five yard line in one game. I’m not prepared to guarantee anything other than a competitive team, but I think they could surprise a few people this season.

The Arizona Cardinals seem a strange prospect for me without Bruce Arians never mind having to find a new starting quarterback. We know that Sam Bradford is unlikely to make it through the season without getting injured and that receiving legend Larry Fitzgerald deservers a better team, but David Johnson is returning from a wrist injury and so he should get back to something like his previous form. However, with a new coaching staff and so much turmoil it feels like whilst this team in transition might rally round and surprise people, it could also really struggle and something says to me that struggle is the more likely option. I always want to see teams and players do well so I hope to be proved wrong.

Finally, in this two day scramble of writing madness we come to the only team with a quarterback who has an undefeated starting record in the NFL. It is a small sample size so whilst I’m certain that Jimmy Garoppolo’s steak won’t continue throughout this season, the hope that he and first year head coach Kyle Shanahan gave last year will continue to come to fruition this year. However, they have already lost running back Jerick McKinnon to an ACL injury and it’s worth remembering the place that the 49ers started from when John Lynch came in to be Shanahan’s GM last year. I expect the 49ers to be competitive even if they can’t replicate the five game winning streak from the end of last year’s season but the fans from San Francisco may have to wait until next season to return to the playoffs given the size of the rebuild job that had to be taken on. I wouldn’t necessarily put any money on that though…

AFC Preview

04 Tuesday Sep 2018

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18-09-04 AFC

With the new season only days away I thought I would take you through a whistle-stop tour of the league starting with an AFC preview and I’ll give the NFC teams their own post before the Philadelphia Eagle and Atlanta Falcons get things under way on Thursday.

I don’t particularly like making predictions as there are too many variables and injury luck is can be such a huge part of team success so I’ll be breaking the divisions up into favourites, competitive, and likely to struggle as I work my way round the division compass so without further ado let’s make a start on the .

AFC North

Much as it is painful for a Bengals fan to say it, the favourite to take the AFC North division is still the Pittsburgh Steelers. They may have questions at linebacker thanks to Ryan Shazier’s injury, but the defence still finished top ten last year by DVOA in and the options in their offence are still terrifying. Time is ticking for Ben Roethlisberger but as long as he doesn’t suffer a dramatic fall off then this is going to be one of the teams of the conference who should have their eyes on the Super Bowl.

The AFC North is always a tough division, and even when the Browns are struggling they are often a tough out, but not so much under Hue Jackson. However, with a defence that has looked good in pre-season and the additions of Jarvis Landy and Tyrod Taylor as well as new offensive co-ordinator Toddy Haley it at least feels like the infrastructure for success is more solid. In a position to let rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield develop and not rush him I think the Browns will be more competitive than last season, but whether their ill-discipline (they got penalised a lot in pre-season) will allow them to win games I don’t know. I think we’ll know a lot more about this team by the end of the first four games.

The Baltimore Ravens are another team who are perennially competitive but had to do it with defence and special teams last year. With a kicker like Justin Tucker you can mask a lot of deficiencies in offence but the thing the Ravens coaches might be most happy about having drafted Lamar Jackson this year is the fire it seems to have lit under long time quarterback Joe Flacco. He may also have been helped by better receiving options and being healthy in the offseason for the first time in two years but if the Ravens’ Super Bowl winning play caller can lead the offensive to a better ranking than twenty-first by DVOA the Ravens will be right in contention for the playoffs again.

I’ve written a fair amount about the Cincinnati Bengals this pre-season and it is telling that neither of the offensive tackles two years that they drafted to prepare for a transition of talent have worked out whilst Andrew Whitworth looked great for the LA Rams last year. With new playbooks on both sides of the ball there have been a lot of changes to coaching and the roster. Whilst the Bengals have another young team there seemed to be a lot to like and if the O-line gels, then Andy Dalton should have a much easier time finding his myriad of skill players. I’m not pencilling them into the playoffs, but I’m not ruling it out and I wasn’t sure that would be the case when it was announced the Marvin Lewis was coming back.

AFC East

Is this the year that the New England Patriots falter? For the first time Tom Brady was not ever present through the off-season, their first round offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn ruptured his Achillies after they let starting left tackle Nate Solder leave in free-agency, and this was a team that went to the Super Bowl with a defence ranked thirty-first in the league by DVOA so they can ill afford an offensive wobble. I think we’re all at the point where we’ll believe Tom Brady is done when he has signed his retirement papers, but what will help them is that none of the rest of the division are exactly standing up as challengers at the moment and so the Patriots look to be favourites still. This could finally change though.

The Buffalo Bills made the playoffs for the first time in eighteen attempts last seasons, but they responded to this by cutting the quarterback that got them there, not signing the linebacker that led the league in tackles and trading their left tackle to the Bengals in the draft manoeuvres required to get their quarterback of the future. Have traded away AJ McCarron they have opted to go with rookie Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman as their QBs, but whilst Peterman has looked good in pre-season and Allen has flashed, the Bengals defensive line had a field day against Buffalo’s o-line and it could be a very long season for whoever starts. I was impressed with everything Sean McDermott did last season bar benching Tyrod Taylor but I don’t think this season’s roster is better than last years and I have a nasty feeling they will struggle for a lot of the season.

If you trade away your best offensive and defensive players for chemistry reasons, you had better have an awful lot of talent coming in and I’m not sure that Miami Dolphins do. I thought they had a good draft and I would say Adam Gase is a good coach but I’m not at all sure of the roster construction and this feels like the latest in a long series of make or break seasons for Ryan Tannehill. I believe that Gase can keep the locker room together and make them competitive but it would not surprise me if they fall into a difficult season. Nothing would make me happier than to be proved wrong, if only to cheer Dan through the season.

Finally we have the New York Jets, and I though Todd Bowles did an excellent job of coaching with a lack of talent on the roster last season and not sure many other coaches would have got as many wins. The most ready of the rookie quarterbacks fell into their laps in the draft and Sam Darnold looked good enough in pre-season that the Jets traded Teddy Bridgewater to the New Orleans Saints. I think it will take another or season or two to turn things round and I don’t know if Bowles will get the chance to complete the job, but I can see the Jets equalling their record of last season. There will be ups and downs with a rookie quarterback but the real question for this season is have the Jets finally got a franchise QB. Everything else after that can wait.

AFC South

The Jacksonville Jaguars continued to build their defence, stuck with Blake Bortles and their big free agent signing was a offensive guard. I thought that Bortles might have learnt a thing or two in last season’s playoff run but with the exodus at receiver and the injury to Marqise Lee this team will be as reliant as ever on their defence and the run game. The good news is that the defence will be no less scary and they should rightly be considered the favourites for this division.

The Houston Texans may have only won four games last season, but they revealed they could have a bright future as long as the young quarterback Deshaun Watson can recover his blistering form from last season before his knee injury. With the defence hoping a number of players stay healthy, including JJ Watt this could be really good team even if the offensive line looks to be a big problem. There are a lot of ifs there so whilst the Texans will start out competitively, how long they will remain so is the big question.

The Tennessee Titans ground their way into the playoffs with a run first offence and a defence that ranked twenty-first in the league by DVOA. This was not enough to save Mike Mularkey his job and there rookie head coach Mike Vraebel is hoping that Matt LaFleur can revitalise the offence and fourth year quarterback Marcus Mariota. The coaches with links to Bill Belichick have not necessary flourished as head coaches and Vraebel has limited experience as the man with ultimate responsibility so I am very curious to see how he goes. The honest answer is I’m not sure so this is one of the teams we’ll need to follow closely through the start of the season.

The Indianapolis Colts have struggled mightily with Andrew Luck being out injured but this also laid bare the problems with the rest of the roster and whilst there are signs that things are improving in the second year of Chris Ballard’s rebuild, a lot will depend on Andrew Lucks surgically repaired and extensively rehabbed shoulder. The good news is that he’s back to starting but new head coach Frank Reich will be hoping that he can get enough from his franchise quarterback that the season can be a success, but I have a feeling that being competitive would qualify as just that and would be a good place to start.

AFC South

The Kansas City Chiefs won the division last year and I have too much faith in Andy Reid to see this team as anything other than competitive and I would place them as favourites to win the division. That is despite trading Alex Smith to Washington to promote Patrick Mahomes as the starter after a season where the young quarterback sat on the bench. Mahomes has the arms to make use of the myriad of skills players the Chiefs can use in their offence that has borrowed liberally from college, whilst their defence was only ranked thirtieth by DVOA last year when they won the division. It wouldn’t take much to improve that ranking and with the potential of their offence the Chiefs could be one of the most fun teams to watch this season.

The other potential favourite in this division could be the LA Chargers but it would require them to get out of their own way and they couldn’t quite manage that last season. The abiding image of Philip Rivers for me these days is a player somehow functioning as an effective quarterback despite minimal protection from his line. The defence was just outside of the top ten with a fearsome pass rush led by Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa and they should be competitive again this season. The problem is that they have a nasty habit of losing close games and their ‘home’ games in LA were frequently more like home games for the opposition thanks to fan turnout. I’d like to think they can improve but I’m not willing to just outright declare it, although I’d be very willing to be proved wrong again.

I’m not entirely sure where to begin with the currently Oakland soon to be Las Vegas Raiders. The big move of the off-season would have been luring Jon Gruden out of the commentary booth nine years after he last coached except they have just traded Khalil Mack, one of the best young defensive players in the league, to the Chicago Bears. The reasoning is that the Mack’s contract demands were just too big, and the Bears wasted no time in signing Mack to a six year deal with $90 million guaranteed days after Aaron Donald signed a contract with $87 million guaranteed. The difference between the three franchises is that the Rams still have a young quarterback on their rookie contract as does the Bears, whilst the Raiders have already signed Derek Carr to a five year extension. The issue is that Gruden has been out of the league for a while, even if he was staying plugged into the NFL through his media gig, and the defence his brother Jay Gruden [I appear to have gone made, too many ex-Bengal coordinators involved as it is in fact Paul Guenther who is the new defensive coordinator – Ed.] takes over was ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA with Khalil Mack. I’m really not sure what to expect out of the Raiders this year, and whilst I can see the salary cap argument to an extent (I don’t study it hard, maybe that’s a task for next off-season) the Mack trade amongst others does nothing to help the Raiders now and I think this club will be in for a very interesting time this year.

Last year’s AFC West strugglers the Denver Broncos will be hoping that the addition of Case Keenum at quarterback will be enough of an upgrade to the offence to give the still competitive if retooled defence a chance of winning games. In the one game I saw them this preseason the offensive line still looked to be a problem but after a good pre-season from Chad Kelly, the Paxton Lynch development plan has finally been shelved. It is way too soon to question a GM who has won a Super Bowl and given his history as franchise quarterback you would think that the job is John Elway’s as long as he wants it. However, whilst he’s made a number of sharp moves in free-agency, his record in the draft is a bit patchier and his choice of Vance Joseph as head coach didn’t exactly yield the early returns that Elway would have hoped for. Still, if either Keenum or Kelly can make the offence competitive then the Broncos will be a team no one will want to face, especially at home and that could be enough for them to be in the playoff race come December.

The NFL can be brutal!

03 Monday Sep 2018

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I mean, the NFL really can be brutal! This time of year, we’re looking forward to the fresh start that comes with a new season, however on Saturday, just 5 days before the first ball is kicked, teams were busy shattering dreams while slimming down to a 53-man roster. And while all of the players know that’s what’s going to happen, I can’t imagine it makes it any easier for either side come cut-down day.

Hard Knocks has been around for a few years now, and off the back of that comes an increased level of understanding of what exactly goes down during the off-season, and a major part of its focus is on who makes the team and who doesn’t. Appreciating that there wouldn’t be much left to the series if they didn’t go so in depth on this element, the final episode of each season is still a tough watch. I’m not quite sure I’d like to find my career (and potentially financial well-being) forming part of a soap opera.

Clearly there’s two sides to this. People like Eric Kush (Bears Centre) who was picked up by Chicago after being cut publicly cut by the Rams on Hard Knocks, will argue that it doesn’t do your chances any harm to catch someone’s eye when the eyes of the media have spent a month and a half following you around.

Image Credit – USA Today

But this year (**Spoiler Alert, People!!**), people like the extremely likeable Devon Cajuste will be hoping to pick up a team quickly. And even though I couldn’t stand how fourth string QB Brogan Roback came across, it’s not going to be a nice watch when this week’s Hard Knocks lands. Seemingly, not many are safe either – not even 2016 first round draft pick QB Paxton Lynch could escape the cut from Denver. 2016 was a tough year to go into the league as a QB as there was a strong draft class that year (Goff, Wentz, Prescott… Hackenberg?!) but for a first rounder who Denver put a lot of hope on at the time to be gone already seems harsh to me, especially when the likes of Wentz and Goff were given a year or so to ‘bed in’.

Even for the lucky ones though, the average career in the NFL is just 3.3 years (according to Statista.com) – I don’t know about you, but if I’d dreamed of doing something as a career my whole life and invested that much time, effort, blood, sweat and tears into making it happen, I’d really hope it lasted a bit longer than 3.3 years when I finally got there… perhaps that’s why I buy Office Supplies for a living and don’t play professional sport [I’m not sure that’s the only reason – Ed.]. I guess that’s why it’s so important for those who do get there to be the best they can on every down… and keep saving their money for retirement!

This may be my last blog before the season starts so I should probably cover off a few things while I’m here! Firstly, here’s a look at the Rams ‘odds to cash out’ chart as it stands:

The Wrong Football are also taking part in a charity fantasy football league in aid of 4Louis, a charity whose amazing work provides memory boxes to hospitals in the U.K. in aid of bereaved parents who have lost a child through stillbirth or neonatal death. It’s a great charity and while I’ll share more about the team when the draft (currently moving at the speed of global warming) is complete, but in the meantime, go to 4Louis.co.uk for more information, and if you would like to donate, head over to https://www.justgiving.com/4louis – a donation of just £30 allows them to provide a family with one of their memory boxes.

Happy Week One everyone!!

@TWFDan

Making Sense of the Chaos

02 Sunday Sep 2018

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18-09-01 Khalil Mack

Image Credit: nypost.com

The final weekend before the regular season is one of the biggest of the NFL calendar with all thirty-two teams cutting their rosters to 53 on Saturday. On Sunday they can place players on injured reserve with the possibility of bringing players back later in the season and shuffle the bottom of their roster as they seek to address weaknesses from a player pool of over a thousand that have just been cut from all teams. Meanwhile at the top of rosters since I last wrote we’ve seen new contracts for Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Donald whilst the currently of Oakland Raiders traded away Khalil Mack, one of the best young defensive players in the league to the Chicago Bears. That’s as good a player that has been traded away as I can remember and the Raiders also traded to get AJ McCarron from the Buffalo Bills despite his underwhelming pre-season and shoulder injury. Frankly, things seem a little odd for the silver and black right now.

Meanwhile, things took a strange turn for the Cleveland Browns, especially for those of us in the UK who saw Michael Kendricks on Hard Knocks giving the scouting info on the Philadelphia Eagles offence ahead of their game with them, only to then find out that Kendicks had been released by the Browns after he was charged for insider trading. It appears that the Browns were aware of the situation that occurred back in 2014 but they had been told that Kendricks had cooperated with investigators as a victim and the change in information prompted them to release the Super Bowl winner.

Getting back to Hard Knocks episode four we had the rookie show and the clip of Kendricks breaking down his former team but it was a more restrained episode this week. A game that finished 5-0 will be part of it, but we did get a more detailed look into Tyrod Taylor’s exit from the game with a dislocated finger, the x-ray, and then him getting taped up and heading back into the game. The cameras didn’t follow Taylor into the medical tent or x-ray room but we heard the pain and saw him catch a ball in the locker room before he declared himself fine and headed off to get back into the game. There was an interview with Josh Gordon before the game and we saw him passing out gloves to a pair of children screaming for him, but with him not cleared to participate the nearest we got to Gordon playing football was him going through the new playbook and saying he knew the plays. Given that Todd Haley has been installing a new offence this offseason that was a little curious.

We know that for a lot of young NFL players are helped by the veterans, but it was interesting to see Devon Cajuste working extensively with a fellow tight end on his blocking, but much like when we saw Antonio Calloway watching film with Jarvis Landy, you wonder where the position coaches are as surely they should be making sure the players are working on the techniques the coaching staff wants the players to be using.

The final episode of Hard Knocks will focus on the Brown’s game against the Detroit Lions and the cuts of the fringe players that has already happened as I write this but several of them could have been picked up for practice squad or other teams by the time the episode airs. This is one of the most awkward parts of Hard Knocks being shown a couple of days later in the UK as if you don’t want spoilers you have to be careful about the NFL media you consume but the fifth and final episode really suffers as it airs on the same day the season starts, four days after cuts weekend and a week since the last games of the pre-season.

In their game against the Lions Devon Cajuste caught a twenty-four yard catch at the start of the game and Nate Orchard intercepted the ball and ran it back for a touchdown. Fans of the Browns will already know if this was enough for them to make the team or not, but I’ll let you find out for yourself or keep the suspense until the last episode. It was interesting to see Brogan Roback get some extended play time but early on whilst his demonstrated the strength of arm, he kept trying to force long passes and more than once he looked distinctively frantic. He did eventually settle down and showed some touch on a couple of completions before firing in a touchdown pass to Blake Jackson.

Overall the Browns ran away with this game but both sides of the ball fell away as the game progressed and we slipped further down the roster. There is a lot of positivity floating round the Browns at the moment but they were again beset by penalties and you have to wonder how much this is going to hurt them in the season. We’ve seen Hue Jackson bemoaning the penalties throughout the series but things are not changing and you can’t turn this round simply by telling players something they already should know. This is about discipline and what the coaches demand and what they encourage through tolerating on the practice field, a team plays like how they practice, and this is something that could very easily cost them games this season.

There is one episode of Hard Knocks left and the Browns will already be preparing for their opening game but we will soon see if Hue Jackson has turned things round or this will be his last season as head coach of the Browns.

2018 Pre-Season – Week 3

29 Wednesday Aug 2018

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18-08-29 Matt Nagy

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The accepted general schedule of an NFL pre-season has week three as the dress rehearsal for the starters, which is what I confidently stated last week so it’s nice to be completely tripped up by the second game I watched of the week three slate.

The Chicago Bears hosted the Kansas City Chiefs and Mat Nagy had already called Chiefs head coach to warn him that the Bears would be sitting their starters earlier in the week so whilst I got to see plenty of the Chiefs’ new starter Patrick Mahomes, the Bears’ Mitch Trubisky did not start much to my surprise as I had not seen the news before I sat down to watch the game. The two shining stars for the Bears offence for me was Chase Daniel who looked the best I had seen him all pre-season and seventh round receiver Javon Wims, who caught four balls for one hundered and fourteen yards and a touchdown. There is further good news in that the offence generally looked good in this game and the Bears ran out 27-20 winners to take their pre-season record to 2-2. Wins are not the focus while the teams prepare for the regular season but after losing their first two pre-season games the Bears will appreciate wining two on the bounce and they will have got extended looks at players further down the roster with the approach of Nagy.

The head coach of the Bears argued the decision was about workload and keeping players healthy for the start of the season and reading Nagy’s comments he seems to have thought it through and he’s not the only coach who’s thinking like that as the Rams starters have apparently barely played this pre-season either. The quote that caught my eye was that ‘… if we win that game against Green Bay, trust me, it wasn’t because we didn’t play 25 [snaps today]. And if we lose it, it’s the same thing. I promise you that.’ I find it interesting as whilst I believe that he thinks this is true, the press are going to ask questions if they do lose. The one thing from this that I think should cheer them is that their new head coach is doing things his way and I always think that’s a positive as you’ll find out more quickly if they are on the right track or not. I’m not sure if the Bears’ defence is going to live up to last year’s ranking of fourteenth by DVOA but I do think their offence will be better than twenty-eighth as long as they’re not overwhelmed by injury

As for the Chiefs, whilst Mahomes will not be as efficient as Alex Smith he will make plays with his remarkable arm and I suspect they are in for a very entertaining season. I have a lot of respect for Andy Reid who seems to be a consistently underrated coach even if the criticism of his clock management is warranted. The defence has been overhauled with several pass rushers moving on as well as cornerback Marcus Peters being traded so I’m curious to see if they can step up from their ranking of thirtieth by DVOA. But with Reid’s offence it won’t take much of an improvement to make the Chiefs pretty scary in the AFC, it just depends how ready Mahomes is after sitting for nearly all of his rookie year.

My final game of week three saw the Cincinnati Bengals travel to the Buffalo Bills and Andy Dalton likely be the first opposition quarterback to get a standing ovation from a crowd for his part in the winning play against the Baltimore Ravens last season that saw the Bills finally break their playoff drought.

Unfortunately for the Bills, Dalton looked sharp in what likely will be his final extended run of minutes in the pre-season and started as he meant to go on with a touchdown pass to John Ross of fifty-seven yards as the second year receiver sprinted past the Bills’ defence and then shuffled into the end zone. The Bengals have a lot of players showing flashes in the skill positions and even Tyler Eifort was out there as he tries to make another come back from injury. I still have concerns over the offensive line and the rushing attack has not convinced me yet but I feel like the Bengals have a lot of potential on offence for the coming season.

As for the defence, if the pass rush last year was good it may well be even better this year and Josh Allen spent a lot of time running away from marauding defensive lineman or getting sacked. In fact the Bengals’ defence finished with six sacks and ten quarterback hits. The Bengals also just signed Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap to contract extensions of four and three years respectively. They may not have got the turnovers that have been the focus of the offseason, but it feels like the defence is shaping up nicely and I kept spotting new signing middle-linebacker Preston Brown around the ball in the first half. My concern would be the run defence, which has never been the same since they let Domata Peko walk in free agency two years ago but I think having a more settled rotation might help. Needless to say I shall be watching closely over the coming weeks.

Whilst Josh Allen spent a lot of his game escaping pressure and trying not to turn the ball over, the infamous Nathan Peterman moved the team well and as threw for two hundred yard and a touchdown. There was talk on the commentary that there were some around the Bill who thought Peterman was moving the ball better in practice than injured starter AJ McCarron. After the disastrous five interception half Peterman had last season when he was made starter over Tyrod Taylor (a decision I still find somewhat inexplicable) it is good to see him moving the ball with the offence and given the problems the Bills are having with their offensive line, I do wonder if he might be an early starter to buy Josh Allen some more time to acclimatise to the NFL. Whoever starts, as the Bills continue to overhaul their team it looks like they might be taking a step back this year as they consolidate after Sean McDermott’s first season as head coach. I’m hesitant to write them off completely just because apart from his handling of Tyrod Taylor I was impressed with the job McDermott did in his first season, but after this offseason I think there are too many questions around their roster and in particular the offensive line.

So that’s it, one pre-season game left where the players at the bottom of the depth chart will be fighting to make a roster and then next week we will be looking forward to the start of another NFL season.

I am very much looking forward to it.

Only two more weeks until coaching tape.

The Highs and Lows of Hard Knocks and the Cleveland Browns

26 Sunday Aug 2018

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18-08-26 Hard Knocks Crew

Image Credit: ESPN.com

Episode three of Hard Knocks had some highs on the non-football front but was also a demonstration of some of the limitations of the format. When it is good, the programme gives us an insight into the working of an NFL team but it has now been going long enough that you can spot some of the plotting beats and we’re beginning to get to the point where the sword of Damocles hanging over the players further down the roster begins to interfere with the enjoyment of the show. Fourth string quarterback BROgan Roback is a camp arm and doesn’t get into the game against the Bills and we watch in real time as Nate Orchard loses contain twice on the pass rush and the effect this could have on his family. Even last week’s fringe breakout player Devon Cajuste features with his long catch (accompanied by fan cheers of Juice) and the later pass inference that Todd Haley was as unsure about but we’ll look at it on film.

The episode starts with a training camp ‘fight’, which is just one of those things we know happens at training camp and the interesting thing for me was that it was linebacker Christian Kirksey who was peacemaker talking to Jarvis Landry about how he can’t react or break a hand and that he’ll talk to corner Terrane Mitchell. It was pretty amusing to see the, ‘gang of orange’ quarterbacks gathered round Landry and offering to handle the situation for him.

However, for the football nerd it can be frustrating watching obviously sanitised of football content front office and coaching footage. I understand that they can’t give away a competitive advantage but it was painfully obvious that Hue Jackson and Dez Bryant were aware of being on camera in their sit down meeting. I’m was surprised that John Dorsey didn’t know that the player he was bringing in that day was the answer to the pop quiz question his intern had set. We also got treated to offensive line coach Bob Wylie complaining about stretching and comparing 1940s calisthenics to modern training techniques, which is not the kind of attitude I’d want in my coaches but the glimpse into the offensive line drill that had the linemen using a low structure that was clearly helping the linemen keep their pad level down from the snap was genuinely interesting. I was less interested in the random zoology break down of nature’s offensive linemen that was part of the same segment but between Hard Knocks and All Or Nothing it appears that for all the money spent in the NFL, they have the same problems with quality of presentations as sometimes beset the corporate world.

The things that would worry me more seriously as a Browns fan is that I’m not sure how sustainable across a long season Gregg Williams’ fire and brimstone routine is and frankly, I’d like a bit more instruction on what he wants as well as demonstrations of displeasure. We perhaps should be careful of judging this as we don’t know what has been left on the cutting room floor of NFL films, but the fact that his players were touching the quarterback in training and Carl Nassib (he off the impossible financial returns) was openly mocking the offensive coordinator does make you wonder a little about the discipline.

The good news is that Thursday night’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles continued to show that the Browns could well be better this year as they ran out 5-0 winners. In particular, the defence caused the Eagles problems with the pass rush all night and Myles Garrett looked every inch the first round pass rusher as he got a pair of sacks including one for a safety and caused disruption in the backfield. The offence did enough to win the game but the fourth and goal failure that led to the aforementioned safety was a worry as was Tyrod Taylor having to leave the game with a hand injury, but he was able to come back in later in the game. The quietly effective part of the offensive over the last two games in terms of Hard Knocks coverage to how they look in actual games are the running back duo of Carlos Hyde and rookie Nick Chubb who have been moving the ball effectively and helping balance the team. You get the feeling that tight end David Njoku could cause a lot of teams problems with his athleticism and receiver Rashard Higgins had another catch that caught the eye. The swirl at receiver will be one to watch next week now that Josh Gordon has been cleared to practise and play but it appears Dez Bryant was offended by the contract he was offered, but Dez may need to adjust his expectations if he wants to get back on the field as there does not seem to be a lot of other suitors out there at the moment.

As the season nears the cuts are coming and having had the dress rehearsal game next week’s will be all about the battle to make the roster. That’s when the unmanufactured drama will really take hold.

Who is your money on this year?

23 Thursday Aug 2018

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Just a couple of weeks away from the start of the regular season, it’s the time that some people decide to start looking at betting odds for the year, and making a decision who to put their money on in the slim hope of making some money off the sport that they love.

Not me.

I placed my bet on the LA Rams to win the Super Bowl back in March! Before the Draft, and only just after they’d finished brushing up the green and black ticker tape in the US Bank Stadium. Look – I can prove it!

I can almost hear you through the medium of my computer screen asking why on Earth I would do that. Well, I’ll tell you…

There’s a number of reasons really. Firstly, I was impressed with their turnaround last year. Having gone from a 4-12 team with a lot of struggles in the 2016 season to winning the NFC West fairly comfortably with an 11-5 record last season was something I would think a lot of teams would like to emulate this year. If they can carry that momentum over into the new year, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with.

They’ve also done a lot of further strengthening in the off-season. Ndamukong Suh is someone I feel I know quite a lot about from his time in Miami and I think if Aaron Donald’s holdout is resolved (his second in as many years), I can’t see many rushing yards being gained against the Rams [He’s not signed as of post scheduling – Ed.]. QBs aren’t exactly going to relish coming up against that pairing either!

Image credit – ESPN.com

What didn’t help them in the off-season was getting no draft picks until late on in the third round – the unfortunate cost of trading up last year to land Jarred Goff. But honestly, I don’t think that will hurt them this season. It may do in years to come, but some clever trades will get them back into a good position in coming seasons.

Oh, and part of it (quite a large part as it happens) as with any bet I make is gut feel. I just feel they’re going to have a big year this year.

So, while Gee tracks this year’s safety count (#TWFSafeties – get on board, people!!) I’ll be tracking how my bet goes through the season. When I put my hard earned £5.00 on the Rams, I got odds of 16/1 from Bet365. Fast forward 5 months, and they’re at 11/1 as of today. I’m going to track this, as well as my ‘cash out’ figure through the season – I think it will make for some interesting reading by the end of the year.

But who is your money on? And how do you think the Rams will do this year? Drop us a line on Twitter and let’s have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan