2020 Week Nine Picks

08 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

Tags

Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Chicago Bears, Christian McCaffrey, Covid-19, Dez Bryant, Drew Brees, Indianapolis Colts, Joe Flacco, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Matthew Stafford, Miami Dolphins, Michael Thomas, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, NFL, Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Tom Brady, Tua Tagovailoa, Week 9 Picks

So after a convincing win for the Packers on Thursday our focus moves to the Sunday slate of games and the injury/Covid-19 lists with several recognizable names getting activated, be it Dez Bryant getting elevated to the active roster for the Ravens, Christian McCaffery making the Panthers’ fifty-three man roster from IR or Matthew Stafford coming off the reserve/Covid-19 list having been in contact with someone who tested positive but has continued to test negative. It’s hard to keep track of everything, but this can and will have an effect on our picks so let’s take a look and do our best to sort through things as they stand.

Early Games:

For me there are two games that really jump out of the early slate are the Seattle Seahawks visiting the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens at the Indianapolis Colts.

The Bills maintained a two game lead on the Dolphins with a close fought win over the Patriots last week, but whilst they are still the favourites to win the AFC East, the Bills have not looked as they did in their opening four games. The defence that was top ten last year has slipped to twenty-third by DVOA whilst opposing defences look to have found coverages that have cooled Josh Allen’s hot start. The Seahawks defence is only ranked a couple of places higher by DVOA, but Russell Wilson is playing elite level quarterback and has led the Seahawks’ offence to third in the league by DVOA with the shackles finally off as Wilson throws them to big wins instead of relying on the run. The Bills are still a good team, but I don’t see them quite in the same league as the Seahawks and while I think this will be a good watch, I think the Seahawks are likely to prevail.

The Ravens are coming off a tough loss to the Steelers in a game they could have won if it were not for the pair of interceptions that Lamar Jackson threw, but as this was the Ravens second loss against a tope tier 2020 team there are plenty of questions now being asked about how good the Ravens are against the best franchises. In large part this is because the offense has not looked right this season, and whilst Jackson is still playing well, it feels like the Ravens offense has not been able to adjust to how teams are playing them this year and that there needs to be a more consistent third aspect to the passing game beyond Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. They travel to face a Colts team who have quietly got to a 5-2 record with a firth overall ranking by DVOA. Their loss to the Jaguars in week one does not look great, but apart from their loss to the Browns, the Colts have been competitive in every game and are coming off a convincing win against the Lions in Detroit last week. This is probably their toughest test of the season so far and if their top five defence and special teams can keep them in the game then I will be interested to see if Phillip Rivers can do enough with an offence that hasn’t quite found its feet to run out winners.

The other game that catches my eye out of the early schedule is the Chicago Bears taking on the Tennessee Titans. The Bears have scrapped their way to 5-3 on the back of the sixth ranked defence by DVOA and just enough production from a limited offence. The Titans have dropped two games in a. row to the AFC North with the loss to the Bengals last week being a serious upset. The line for this game sees the Titans bigger favourites than I think they should be, and I think this has the potential to be a close game given the Bears’ defence could be able to restrict the Titans offense whilst the Titans’ defence is struggling. I’m not sure it will be the most spectacular game but it will be a tense game with a lot at stake for both teams as they try to stay in the race for their respective divisions.

Other things of interest from the early games:

The Falcons have gone 2-1 since Raheem Morris has taken over as acting head coach and a healthy Julio Jones is also a big help, but I’m not sure what to make of them and they welcome a Broncos team fresh off a comeback win against the Chargers. The Broncos are 3-1 in their last four games, with the only loss to the frightening Chiefs but this game could reveal a lot about how these teams are going to look over the second half of the season
The Minnesota Vikings got a monster game from running back Dalvin Cook last week as he returned from injury and helped the Vikings get the upset win against the Packers. The Detriot Lions have failed to convince all season and I wonder how competitive they can make this game although getting Matthew Stafford back from the Covid-19 list should help.
The Carolina Panthers have dropped back to 3-5 having lost three then won three to start their season, but star running back Christian McCaffery is making his way back from injury and the Panthers are still ahead of where many thought they could be coming into the season. However, the loss to the Falcons last week will be disappointing and I wonder how competitive they can truly be against the Kansas City Chiefs who clearly wanted to make a statement against the Jets last week and look poised to be one of the teams to beat this season.
Just as I said that the Giants seemed to be coming together under first year head coach Joe Judge and were building something, there was the news about veteran receiver Golden Tate’s benching and he won’t be travelling with the team this week. The Washington Football Team have not convinced, even if they did beat the Cowboys last week and having already lost close to the Giants this season so I think this could well be another close game.
The Houston Texans are a team in flux and did not move JJ Watt or Will Fuller before the trade deadline, but they are still in purgatory and it hard to see that changing soon. They should have enough to beat a Jaguars team who flattered to deceive at the start of the season, but are as bad as many suspected coming into the season and who are turning to a different sixth round quarterback in rookie Jake Luton to evaluate what they have their whilst Gardner Minshew gets the chance to heal the strained ligament and multiple fractures in his right thumb.

Broncos @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Seahawks @ Bills (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Bears @ Titans (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Lions @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Ravens @ Colts (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Panthers @ Chiefs (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Giants @ Washington (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Texans @ Jaguars (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Late Games:

The most interesting game of the late starts for me is the Miami Dolphins fresh off their win against the Rams taking on the Arizona Cardinals. The Dolphins won last week thanks to great defence and special teams so Tua Tagovailoa’s modest NFL debut was not a huge contributing factor. The Cardinals should prove to be a tougher test and I will be interested to see how Tagovailoa does in his second game and how things shake out for the Cardinals who are ranked two places lower by overall DVOA but are solid in all three phases of the game.

Thoughts on the other games:

The Raiders have amassed yet more fines related to Covid-19 protocol failures and have not entirely convinced despite having wins against the Saints, Chiefs, and Browns this season. They might have enough to beat the Chargers, but I am curious if their defensive frailties could get exploited by Chargers’ rookie quarterback sensation Justin Herbert
The Cowboys have a new starting quarterback but have problems on both sides of the ball and are unlikely to do much against the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL unless the Steelers have a let-down game after their always tough matchup against the Ravens last week.

Raiders @ Chargers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Steelers @ Cowboys (+10.5)

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Dolphins @ Cardinals (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Sunday Night Football:

Saints @ Buccaneers (-4.5)

The Sunday night game is the matchup of the week as it sees a divisional matchup between the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 5-2 New Orleans Saints. All the talk coming into the season for the Buccaneers was the signing of Tom Brady, but it is the defence that has truly impressed given it is the best in the league by DVOA and has led the Bucs to the top of the DVOA standings by 9.1%. This defence will taking on a Saints team who are ranked seventh overall by DVOA despite missing their leading receiver Michael Thomas for nearly the who season through one injury or another. There is so much debate surrounding Drew Brees’ arm, but his accuracy in the short to intermediate area of the field is still supreme and Alvin Kamara has been leading the way from the backfield in keeping the Saints offence in the top ten. The Saints might not be as complete a team as we thought coming in to the season, but they are still winning at an impressive rate and I think this rematch has a chance to be more impressive than their season opener. This is not a game to miss.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Monday Night Football

Patriots @ Jets (+7.5)

The week nine slate of games closes with a bit of a whimper as the New England Patriots take on the New York Jets in a contest that can only muster two wins between both teams. The Jets are having a putrid season, made more difficult by Sam Darnold re-aggravating the AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder so we see a return to the starting line-up for Joe Flacco that is likely to scupper my bold prediction of the Jets’ offence scoring more points than the Cowboy, but doesn’t completely rule it out. The Patriots meanwhile should win this game, but they really need to find something to hang their hat on for the rest of the season. We still don’t know if Cam Newton is hurt or feeling the effects of recovering from Covid-19, but he has not looked good since he returned and the Patriots look as bad as they have done since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000. They should win this game, but the Pats are not as competitive as I was expecting even given their tough circumstances so what interest there is in this game will be how they look against a divisional rival who have simply been woeful this season.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriotså

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.å

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Nine

05 Thursday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Aaron Rodgers, Dallas Cowboys, Dalvin Cook, George Kittle, Green Bay Packers, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kyle Shanahan, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Football Team, Week 9 Picks

It’s been a weird couple of days, and throw in the first site visit for work in months and my writing time has simply disappeared. The major news appears to still be Covid-19 with the 49ers having to close their facilities and the Packers missing multiple running backs through injury/Covid-19, but tonight’s game is still going ahead. So, as the NFL is waiting for no-one this season I guess I had better get on with Competition Thursday for week nine!

Gee:	Week 8: 8 –6	Overall: 57 – 63
Dan:	Week 8: 7 – 7	Overall: 63 – 57

Packers @ 49ers (+2.5)

This is a bit of a cheat line for us, as with the injuries and disruption to the 49ers preparation with their facility closed due to positive Covud tests the consensus line I am seeing is already up to +7 so whilst it’s always possible that the 49ers could spring a surprise, when you add both one of the best tight ends in the game in George Kittle and starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to the already extensive 49ers’ injury list it seems unlikely. I’m a little nervous about the Packers run defence going against a Kyle Shanahan co-ordinated offence but the Packers, whilst having their own injury/Covid-19 cluster at running back, have Aaron Rodgers and only need to win by a field goal to cover this line and I like that option.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Survivor Competition

Well, Dan changed his plan last week and took the Buccaneers against the Giants and won, whilst I had my third eliminating pick when the Packers had a dud against the Vikings and mainly Dalvin Cook (which in turn makes me marginally more worried about my pick above). This gives Dan a point lead as we go into week nine and Dan has gone for the Packers tonight as he doubles up on tonight’s game. I’m taking a leaf out of his book and I’m going for the Patriots at the Jets, which might be a slightly risky pick but hopefully will pay off in the long run.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 6

Week 9 Selection:

Gee: Patriots
Dan: Packers

Bold Prediction of the Week

I once again made two bold predictions this week, which as much anything is because I’m struggling to find them and am never sure that Dan will allow them but for week nine they are:

The New York Giants will beat the Washington Football Team.
The Jets will score more points against the Patriots than the Cowboys will against the Steelers.

If I manage another 50/50 week I will be very happy.

2020 Week Eight Picks

01 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Baltimore Ravens, Ben DiNucci, Ben Roethlisberger, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Dallas Cowboys, Drew Lock, Julian Edelman, Kyle Shanahan, LA Rams, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Giants, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Russell Wilson, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tom Brady, Tua Tagovailoa, Week 8 Picks

It was a rough start to the week eight picks competition for me, but I was going on the information I had available and I think I would make the same pick again. Clearly I need to be careful about what to make of the Falcons going forward but I can’t over adjust as I have been slowly whiltling down Dan’s lead. Let’s see if I can get any closer to Dan this week as I go through the games that leap out to me across the rest of week eight.

Early Games:

For the second week in the highlight of the early Sunday games feature the Pittsburgh Steelers who after holding on for the win against the Titans now travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. We get to see this matchup at least twice a year, and it is particularly tasty this season as the Steelers take their unbeaten record to a rested 5-1 Ravens team. The only loss the Ravens have was against the Chiefs, but despite their bye there are questions about their offence as it is not running as smoothly as last season and their blitz heavy defensive scheme is not an ideal matchup against Ben Roethlisberger who is getting the ball out as fast as any quarterback in the league. I can see either team winning this one, but with the consensus number being higher and the extra half point the Ravens are laying over a field goal I’m going to take the Steelers.

The other game that grabs my attention is as much about the importance of the result as the play of both teams. The New England Patriots travel to face the Bills on a three-game losing streak and are struggling on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton has not looked right since he came off the Covid list and the Patriots have just put their most productive receiver Julian Edleman on IR. As strange as it feels to pick against Bill Bellichick (even under these circumstance) and particularly as the Bills have been struggling in recent weeks as defenses adjust to Josh Allen’s hot start to the season, the numbers indicate the -3.5 line should be higher and so with a little reluctance I am backing the Bills in a game they need to win to maintain their hold on the AFC East and to keep themselves ahead of the lurking Dolphins

The Dolphins are my other game from the early set to watch, both because I am curious to see how the LA Rams do with yet another trip across the country (their fourth in eight weeks) but mainly because this game sees rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa make his first start. Even only residing on the periphery of Dolphins fandom through my friendship with Dan, I can feel the excitement over Tua time and I just hope that everything goes well for him. That said, with he Rams travelling to Miami I am also grabbing the points so I will have my own selfish reasons for hoping the Dolphins play well, even it is the hope is that they can keep the game closer than four points.

The Titans will be looking to bounce back from their loss to the Steelers while the Bengals have been dealing with some malcontents in the lockeroom. The numbers all show that the Titans are the team to pick, which feels odd as the Bengals have been in all their games bar the Ravens and given how the Titans’ defense is playing and recent performances by the Bengals I am going to back them to stay within six.
The Raiders and Browns are right next to each other by overall DVOA, and this could be a close game, but the numbers are telling me to take the Raiders so that’s where I’m going. However, it is interesting to me that the Browns as the twenty-second ranked team by DVOA have a 5-2 record while the Raiders at twenty-third are 3-3.
The Detroit Lions come off a win that to an extent they lucked into with the Falcons haplessly scoring a touchdown to give the Lions the ball back, but Matt Stafford still had to drive down the field and score the Lions’ own game sealing touchdown. However, the Colts are coming off a bye and this has the potential to turn into one of the more interesting games of the week, but with the Lions consistently underwhelming under Matt Patricia they didn’t quite make the cut for a highlight game.
A big divisional game like the Vikings taking on the Packers should be a highlight of any week, but with the Vikings making moves for the long term and the Packers bouncing back after their tough loss to the Buccaneers it feels like this game is only going one way. That is a little dangerous as anything can happen in the NFL, particularly with divisional games, but it is hard to see any other result than a big win for the Packers in this season’s iteration of these two teams.
Somehow the consensus line for the Jets’ visit to the Chiefs is even higher than the -19.5 points we are picking on, but I do have a slight hesitation as the Jets did cover for me last week against the Bills. However, there is a world of difference between playing a divisional rival at home and travelling to take on the Chiefs, even if the legendarily noisy Chiefs’ crowd won’t be there. I did think about picking the Jets but I just can’t do it with the Chiefs ranked best in the league on offence by DVOA.

Patriots @ Bills (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Titans @ Bengals (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Raiders @ Browns (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Colts @ Lions (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Vikings @ Packers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Jets @ Chiefs (-19.5)

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Rams @ Dolphins (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Steelers @ Ravens (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Late Games:

There are two great matchups in the late games and one intriguing matchup so let’s start with what I think will be the most competitive.

The San Francisco 49ers have remained competitive in a fearsome NFC West division despite their extensive injury list and having beaten the Patriots convincingly in week seven must now travel to take on the Seattle Seahawks. It is a testament to the coaching job that Kyle Shanahan and his staff have done that the 49ers are ranked eighth overall by DVOA (one place higher than the Seahawks) despite their injury list and are around top ten in all three phases of the game. The Seahawks meanwhile are relying on their offence with Russell Wilson playing as well as he ever has but the defense, and in particular the Seahawks pass defense is struggling and this makes for an intriguing matchup. This is definitely one of the games to watch this week, but I don’t have a strong hunch for it and I am making a play based on getting an extra half point.

The Chicago Bears get a real test this week as they put their 5-2 record and top ten defense to the test against a 4-2 Saints who are still a good team despite them not living up to the expectations we had coming into the season. The Bears really don’t convince on offence and the consensus line being the Bears getting four I am going to pick the Saints, but I think this could be a sneaky interesting game, particularly when the Saints have the ball.

The other late game sees the LA Chargers visit the 2-4 Denver Broncos with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert coming of his first career win and the Broncos have been beaten heavily by the Chiefs in week seven. The Broncos were hoping they had found their quarterback of the future in Drew Lock but injuries have muddied the water on how good he can be. The Chargers only need a field goal to cover this line and with the consensus number being on the other side of three points I will back the Chargers, but I could see the Broncos springing a surprise.

Chargers @ Broncos (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Saints @ Bears (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

49ers @ Seahawks (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Sunday Night Football:

Cowboys @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Sunday night game must have looked so good for the schedule makers before the season, but with the Cowboys season in disarray already this feels like a very one-sided affair. The Cowboy are starting their third different quarterback in seventh round rookie Ben DiNucci who is going to have an incredibly tough time given how injured the Cowboy’s offensive line is and straight bad their defense is. The Eagles only have a 2-4-1 record compared to the Cowboys’ 2-5 record but feel like they are in a very different place even if they have their own long list of injuries. The line would give me pause except that the consensus line I am seeing sees the Eagles giving eleven points to the Cowboys so under a touchdown seems a comparative bargain. In another world I might still take the points, but with the Cowboys shipping out or cutting underperforming members of their defense and starting a seventh round rookie quarterback I simply can’t pick them.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Monday Night Football

Buccaneers @ Giants (+10.5)

The last game of the week is another one-sided contest that sees the surging Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the struggling New York Giants. There have been some encouraging moments for the Giants in their last three games but these have all come across fellow NFC East team. Taking on the Buccaneers is a very different prospect and even though this is a big line, I am seeing a higher consensus so whilst I am slightly nervous about this play, I am going to back the Buccaneers and their fearsome defense as Tom Brady continues to find his way with the Bucs offence.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Week Five Picks

11 Sunday Oct 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Covid-19, Indianapolis Colts, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, LA Chargers, Lamar Jackson, Matt Rhule, Michael Thomas, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Nick Chubb, Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, Stephon Gilmore, Tennessee Titans, Tyrod Taylor, Week 5 Picks

We have two more rescheduled games this week, including a Tuesday night game that may or may not see the Titans return to action depending on if there are any further positive tests. I would like to think that there will be no more unofficial workouts by the Titans’ players and this might go part way to explaining the number of positives the Titans have had compared to the other teams. That said, the positive test of Patriots’ corner Stephon Gilmore who apparently had dinner with Cam Newton, and the number of the close contacts Newton had is again a demonstration that no one can take the Covid-19 protocols lightly and we will have to see if the current plans will hold, or if things will need to change.

Anyway, having fallen a further point behind Dan in the picking competition thanks to a Bears win on Thursday, I hope to stop the bleeding a little over the rest of week five.

Early Games:

There are various games that look interesting to me in the early slot, but not a lot of obviously compelling watches.

The nearest we have to a competitive matchup according to the lines is the Carolina Panthers taking on the winless Atlanta Falcons, with the Falcons laying three and a half points to the Panthers who are coming off two straight wins. I will be watching this game as I haven’t had a chance to catch either team yet and I want to take a look at what Matt Rhule is building as well as what is going on with the Falcons and in particular their defence..

The other game that is catching my eye is a little self-serving, but the Bengals are coming off their first win with Joe Burrow and travel to take on the Baltimore Ravens. The AFC North is always a competitive division, at least amongst the top team and the Bengals have had a tendency to play the Ravens close so with Lamar Jackson dealing with a knee injury during the week I think this is likely a closer game that the line suggests and has the potential to be one of those division games that could give us a surprise result, even if it is merely a closer loss for the Bengals than expected.

Other things of interest:

The Kansas City Chiefs are heavy favourites, which is understandable to an extent as the Raiders have not won in Arrowhead stadium for seven years and with the Raiders’ defence still ranked in the thirties I like the Chiefs to continue their win streak but it could be a challenge to cover this line.
The LA Rams should win in Washington, except the Rams have been back and forth across the country at the start of this season so perhaps the Football Team can spring a surprise off the back of a different quarterback starting.
The Arizona Cardinals have fallen back in their division after two straight losses but will be hoping to get things back on track against a Jets team who will be without struggling quarterback Sam Darnold thanks to the AC sprain in his throwing shoulder. There will be some serious questions to answer if the Cardinals lose a third straight game.
The Philadelphia Eagles coming of their first win of the season travel to face the Steelers in a game that I think the Steelers are likely to win given the strength of their defense and the problems the Eagles are having on offence, but this game has the potential to get interesting if the Eagles defensive line can get going or if Carson Wentz finds some form.
There will be some who think the Texans will get a new coach bounce, and whilst that is possible, I don’t see it being a huge factor as their roster has structural issues thanks to letting Bill O’Brien make short terms moves as GM over the last couple of season. The Texans may well get their first win of the season, but this line is too high for me and the Jaguars offence may have success against a Texans defense centered around an ageing JJ Watt and not a huge amount more.

Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Bengals @ Ravens (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Raiders @ Chiefs (-12.5)

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Rams @ Washington (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Cardinals @ Jets (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Eagles @ Steelers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Jaguars @ Texans (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Late Games:

The matchup of the late Sunday games is the Indianapolis Colts taking their league leading by DVOA defense to Cleveland to face a Browns team who have won three games straight. The injury to lead running back Nick Chubb is a blow for the Browns, and the Colts will prove a lot sterner test than the miserable Cowboys defense last week. The Browns are getting points at home this week, but I think this is a close matchup and I think could be one of the more competitive games of the week.

The Dolphins could not keep up with the Seahawks last week and now face a trip across the country to face a 49ers team who are staying competitive despite their extensive injury list. I like the 49ers to win this one, but I think this game could be closer than the line suggests, and I would not be surprised if the Dolphins managed an upset.

The Dallas Cowboys simply cannot afford to lose this game, although no one is looking that capable of winning the NFC East. However, the Giants have the easiest offence the Cowboys have faced this season so this could be a chance for them to find something and it won’t take much of a defensive effort for the Cowboys to win given how well their offence is playing.

Dolphins @ 49ers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Colts @ Browns (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Giants @ Cowboys (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Sunday Night Football:

Vikings @ Seahawks (-7.5)

I sometime worry that I am turning into Dan as I am really looking forward to this game as after a slow start the Minnesota Vikings are finding their feet on offence, and they will need every yard of the passing game to keep up with the Seahawks. That said, the Seahawks defense is not good and plain bad against the pass, ranking twenty-ninth by DVOA. I think this should be a fun game to watch given the offensive battle, and while it may be closer than eight points, it’s hard to see Russell Wilson losing this game given how well he is playing.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Monday Night Football:

Chargers @ Saints (-7.5)

The LA Chargers have named rookie quarterback Justin Herbert their starting quarterback and he has definitely shown promise, but the Chargers only win came against the Bengals with Tyrod Taylor getting the start. The New Orleans Saints might not look quite like themselves, but with talk that receiver Michael Thomas could return and the Chargers looking decidedly average I find it hard to see them springing an upset on the road, even if the Saints are missing their passionate crowd. This line might be too big to cover, but I will be surprised if the Chargers do manage to get the win.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Rescheduled Games:

Broncos @ Patriots (-10.5)

The first game of the Monday night doubleheader sees the Patriots host the Denver Broncos coming off their Thursday night win over the Jets. It is hard to know how the disruption of the last week will have affected the Patriots, but they will miss Cam Newton and so whilst I think that Bill Belichick will be able to lead his team to the win, I doubt they will cover this line. I could be wrong, but double-digit points after a disrupted week of preparation that sees the Patriots going against a well-rested Broncos team is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Bills @ Titans (+1.5)

After all the positive tests and the apparent out of facility workouts the Titans are currently scheduled to retake the field this Tuesday night, which sees the Bills game against the Chiefs that was supposed to happen two days later put back to the Sunday. No one truly knows if the Titans will be in a position to play this game, or how they will look when they finally do return to the field. I think the Bills should win if this game does get played, but a Tuesday night game puts the Bills in a situation no team will have seen to prepare for their Sunday night game against the Chiefs. We knew that this season would not be fair, and so it will be even more impressive if the Bills come out of their next two games with a win or two.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Reality Bites

07 Wednesday Oct 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Cam Newton, Covid-19, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Pittsburgh Steelers, Stephon Gilmore, Tennessee Titans

We are through week four with a rescheduled bye week for the Covid-19 infected Titans and their week four opponents the Pittsburgh Steelers as well as first in week game delay. Before all teams are even through a quarter of their season, we have had our first coach firing of the season, there are six unbeaten teams though that is slightly inflated with the Steelers Titans matchup being postponed, and four winless teams that led to the first coach firing.

There’s a fair amount to get through and the NFL is not the only ones having disruption to their routine so let’s get writing whilst I still have time!

What I Saw

Week four may have started with questions still surrounding the Titans and Steelers game, but we got a surprise of the pleasant variety Thursday night when the less that enticing on-paper matchup of the winless Denver Broncos taking on the winless New York Jets turned into an enjoyable game. It was a relatively comfortable 37-28 win for the Broncos in the end, but a close first half saw a truly special run from Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold opened the scoring with a forty-six yard touchdown, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the Jets have been unable to build a team around him their third year quarterback to truly evaluate him. Darnold had to leave this game for a short period having been thrown down on his right shoulder, and whilst he made a go of it on the night, he is now on the injury report with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder and it is not known if he will be available on Sunday. It feels like only a matter of time before the Jets move on from Adam Gase, who has never really convinced as a head coach, but with the state of roster I don’t know whether they will try to rebuild around Darnold or if they will try something more drastic. The Broncos looked competitive in this game, but we know they were facing a struggling team and it is not too often a quarterback can throw three interceptions and still win the game. Their defence, which ranks twelfth by DVOA gives them something to build off, and Brett Rypien showed some good flashes when he wasn’t getting picked off by Pierre Desir. This was a surprisingly fun game to watch but hasn’t stuck in the memory so let’s move on to the weekend’s game.

Before the Cleveland Browns kicked off in Dallas against the Cowboys, Cam Newton had tested positive for Covid-19 and the Patriots visit to the Chiefs had been postponed in the hope of further testing allowing the game to play. The Browns started off by taking the lead with trickery as Jarvis Landry threw a thirty-seven yard touchdown to his fellow receiver Odell Beckahm and it looked like we could have ourselves a real contest as the Cowboys offence answered with a touchdown drive of their own and then took the lead. However, their defensive frailties started to show themselves at the start of the second quarter as the Browns equalised and as the Cowboys gave the ball away, the Browns quite literally ran away with the game, scoring twenty-seven unanswered points as the Cowboys failed to score until early in the fourth quarter. The pretty startling stat is that the Browns finished with over three hundred yards of rushing in this game and that’s with their starting running back Nick Chubb going down early with an MCL sprain. It is quite remarkable that the Cowboys’ managed to within three points with three minutes to go before a fifty-yard run on a reverse from Odell Beckham sealed the game 49-38. It was quite remarkable touchdown as by all rights Beckham should have been stopped well behind the line of scrimmage, but he managed to escape and got the distance. The Cowboys clearly have a potent offence, but they need the defence to step up so they can win games without the offence being perfect. They are 1-3 for a reason and could just as easily be 0-4. It is somewhat remarkable that are still second in the division and only a tied game by the Eagles from being top but they need to improve fast if they want to make anything of this season as it appears only one team will be coming out of the NFC East this year. As for Cleveland, they have a built a team who looks to have an identity and who can compete. I don’t know that they will push into the playoffs, but they are developing an offence that puts Baker Mayfield in position to succeed and not drive success and they are going to be a handful for anyone.

The other early game I saw was the Jacksonville Jaguars visit to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a game the Jaguars ultimately lost 25-38. The Bengals were fairly comfortable for a lot of this game with Joe Mixon having a productive game and Joe Burrow looking as good as he has done all season. Things seemed to have cooled off for the Jaguars after a positive opening that encouraged me after their first two games, but if there are some bright flashes from parts of the roster, they look a long way from promising I thought. The Bengals look to be changing generations at receiver and have some talent on both sides of the ball, but the offensive line has to improve as does the defence overall but in a season where I was only looking for hope, Burrow as show me at least that he could be the real deal. I’m just not as sure about Zac Taylor and I wonder if he is going to be hamstrung by his choice of offensive line coach.

The final game that I saw this week was the late game between the Buffalo Bills visiting the Las Vegas Raiders, which was not quite the contest I was hoping for with the Bills running out 30-23 winners and were another team who looked comfortable for a lot of the game. I was really impressed with the scheme of the Bills offence and the difference the addition of receiver Stefon Diggs made. If it were not for several drops Josh Allen could have had an even more impressive day throwing the ball, but Allen still throws some very hard passes at times so there’s still some touch to be developed. Still, the Bills really look like they have taken another incremental step forward with Josh Allen relying on his arm now instead of his legs to make the offence purr and the defence possibly rounding into shape so if they can keep things together they look like they could do more than just make the playoffs this season. Meanwhile, the problem for the Raiders is the same one they have had since Jon Gruden took over, which is that the offence can do as well as it can in the last two season, and is currently ranked tenth in the league by DVOA, but until their defence gets out of the thirties in defensive ranking then the Raiders are not going to be able to get where they want to go. Particularly sharing a division with the Kansas City Chiefs and their duo of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Derek Carr might not be the elite quarterback you dream of, but the offence helmed by him is good enough to win if they had more help from the other side of the ball.

What I Think

I have a minor case study in how disruptions can affect your routine and throw you out of sorts. I’m not saying being away for the weekend is the reason my picks were so bad in week four, but it didn’t help, and I have been off kilter all this week for one reason or another.

I mention this not to look for sympathy, but because I am not an elite athlete competing with the world’s best in their field. That is what the NFL is asking of its players in the middle of the pandemic and we really began to see the consequences of that as that reality began to bite.

As of writing we do not yet know what lessons need to be learned about the outbreak in Tennessee, and the early hope of several days without positive tests and the facility opening have been dashed by two more players testing positive. If there is good news to be taken from the Titan’s situation it is that no Vikings seem to have been infected and so it is working in close quarters with team mates and contact outside of the field of play that looks to be driving infection and not the action on the field. However, that will be tested with other teams having positives.

While the Titans are paying the price for this problem with an early week four bye and will now have to play thirteen games straight, whenever they can actually get back to playing. The Steelers who had to deal with uncertainty for a lot of last week ended up with an unscheduled bye week where they were not recovering but preparing for a game that did not take place. They will also face a thirteen-week streak of games for no other reason than a quirk of the schedule. Whether there will be further outbreaks that require move rounds of games I do not know, but even with the other game delay we are asking a lot of the players.

I heard it suggested that one of the reasons the Patriots game was delayed was not because they had lost a quarterback, but because they were the first travelling team to have a positive test at the weekend. In fact the team travelled in two planes to separate the close contacts with Cam Newton from the rest of the team. However, the Chiefs are now being asked to play three games of football in a remarkably short ten days have been moved to this Monday, play again on a short week on Sunday against the Raiders before travelling to face the Bill on the following Thursday night.

If that were not enough, the news broke today that Patriots corner Stephon Gilmore has now tested positive for Covid-19 have played at the weekend and was seen embracing Patrick Mahomes after the game Monday. Mahomes could well be safe, but it is clear that there is still room for improvement in teams facilities for protecting the players from the spread of Covid-19 and it may well be time for the NFL to be more flexible in the approach to scheduling games and stricter on how it isolates teams with positive tests.

What I Hope

I wanted to write about coaches and culture in the wake of the firing of Bill O’Brien in Houston having listened to Peter King interview both beat reporter John McClain on the situation for the Texans, and Panthers head coach Matt Rhule after the Panthers got their second straight win in Rhule’s first year as head coach in the NFL.

It is a hell of a season to be building a new culture when you haven’t done it before and I was impressed by his approach, but with the current situation I cannot focus in on that like I would want.

What I really hope is that we can learn to live with this virus until there is a game changing treatment or a vaccine.

That applies to everywhere and not just to the NFL, and right now we have to take the solace where we can find them. I hope that football can continue to be that in some form, but just like everything else in the world at the moment, it won’t be the same form for a long tiem.

2020 Week Four Picks

04 Sunday Oct 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Cam Newton, Covid-19, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, NFL, Week 4 Picks

If one game being postponed was not enough to make clear the realities of playing this season in the middle of a pandemic, the positive test of Cam Newton and the delay of the Patriots game against the Chiefs as a backup quarterback on the Chiefs also tested positive is another reminder.

None of this is a surprise. Once the decision had been made that it was too impractical to bubble the NFL for the season, then the league knew that there would be positive tests and the protocols were designed to manage this situation. If there is good news to be had out of the situation in Tennessee where eight players and eight staff have now tested positive, it is that as yet there have been no positive tests at their opponents last week the Vikings or with the game staff. My concern is still that we are not yet out of the incubation period of the virus but we can hope that things hold and that there is not a lot spread amongst the now three other teams with positive tests.

Early Games:

It’s not a slate of games that instantly leaps out as containing classic games but there are interesting things about many of the games.

The two games that grab the attention first as the Cleveland Browns taking on the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints taking on the Detroit Lions.

The Browns trip to Dallas gives them a chance to build on their last two wins and with a top ten defense and an offence beginning to find a way they have a formula to be competitive with the Cowboys. However, the Cowboy’s offence has a lot of talent even if it hasn’t been able to convert fantasy points and yards into wins, but I am curious about whether the Browns can do enough to get the win or the Cowboys can back to 2-2 with an eye to pushing on in a division where all four teams have loosing records. The Cowboys are having real issues on defense so it is a good job their offence has been playing so well.

The Saints offence has struggled without receiver Michael Thomas who is missing for another week and Drew Brees not looking himself in the passing game. Their loss to the Raiders might be considered surprising but the Packers look to be a force to be reckoned with at the moment so last week’s loss is understandable. However, a trip to the Lions is a good test of how deep the problems for the Saints are. The Lions might be coming off a win but they are still not that convincing and with Alvin Kamara playing well for the Saints they will feel like they should win this game. The line reflects a similar confidence, but I can’t help but feel that things are going to be more complicated than that.

Other things of interest are:

I’m not sure why a team with no wins like the Bengals are giving away an extra half point to the, although this line was set early enough that they wouldn’t be aware of Joe Mixon turning up on the injury report.
I’m curious to see how well the Dolphins can compete with an explosive Seahawks offence and if they can make a game of it, or if the Seahawks will just keep rolling.
The Houston Texans have had a tough start to the season, so to come home and face a fellow struggling team like the Vikings presents an opportunity to turn their season around. The Vikings might be thinking something similar and although I’m not impressed by either team, I can at least see what the Vikings were planning but if the defensive struggles can be understood by the off-season overhaul, the offensive woes might have sunk their season already.
The Cardinals stumbled last week, and Kyler Murray had a bad game so it will be interesting to see if they can get back on track this week and keep pushing for the playoffs, or if the Panthers coming off their first win under Matt Rhule can build some momentum.
The Buccaneers hosting the Chargers looks to be a game that the Bucs should win. The Bucs defense ranks second in the league by DVOA and with Tom Brady’s experience on the other side of the ball it should be enough to see them past a Chargers team who have been close in every game but have only managed the one actual win.
The Ravens will be desperate to bounce back after last week’s loss to the Chiefs, and it is doubtful that Washington will be able to truly compete. They may have the fourth best defense in the league by DVOA, but I doubt they will be able to exert the scoreboard pressure the Chiefs did last week and it could be a very long day for Ron Rivera’s team.

Jaguars @ Bengals (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Browns @ Cowboys (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Saints @ Lions (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Seahawks @ Dolphins (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Vikings @ Texans (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Cardinals @ Panthers (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Chargers @ Buccaneers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Ravens @ Washington (+13.5)

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Late Games:

The game that leaps out to me in this matchup is the Buffalo Bills taking on the Las Vegas Raiders. I definitely want to watch this one as I haven’t seen a game at the Raiders new stadium and the Bills have started the season strongly, with Josh Allen looking to have taken another step forward. I think this is a game that the Bills could and possibly should win, but the Raiders have had a strong start themselves so I think this could be a really spectacular game.

The other game that could be competitive is the Indianapolis Colts visiting the Chicago Bears, but to me that depends to what extent Nick Foles can run Matt Nagy’s offence better than Trubisky has done so far this season. The Colts stumbled out of the gates, but have put together two very solid wins so I am curious to see how this game shapes up.

The Rams should have no problems in beating a winless Giants team travelling across the country to face them. It’s always possible for a team to stumble, particularly when both Dan and I have selected them as our survivor pick, but I think it unlikely.

Giants @ Rams (-12.5)

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Bills @ Raiders (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Colts @ Bears (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Sunday Night Football:

Eagles @ 49ers (-6.5)

This is a slightly strange national game given that the 49ers are dealing with a series of injuries but have been good enough to go 2-1 and beat the Giants by a lot last week, whilst the Eagles have really struggled this season having started the season 0-2-1. This might be a trap, particularly as I’ve seen numbers that suggest picking the Eagles, but with them travelling across county to face a better coached team and the Eagles getting under seven points, which is what I’m seeing as the consensus pick I’m grabbing who I think are the better team.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Monday Night Football

Falcons @ Packers (-7.5)

This is a tricky game for me as the Packers have been the much better team this season, but the large line and the numbers all tell me to pick the Falcons. I am choosing to trust my process even though I’m exactly even, but the extra half point over seven is a key number so let’s see if the Falcons can at least keep this one close even if they can’t get their first win this season.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Postponed Game

Patriots @ Chiefs (-6.5)

We don’t know right now if this game will be played Monday or Tuesday or if this will become the second game to be postponed this season. The Chiefs were already favourites and the move of Cam Newton to the Covid-19 list only confirms this. If the game goes ahead with a backup quarterback, the Patriots will do well to keep this game competitive. I think that’s possible, but the numbers still give me value with the Chiefs and as the better team I will give them a pick, but we shall have to see if there are more positive tests and if this games even goes ahead.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Week Three Picks

27 Sunday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Covid-19, Dallas Cowboys, Drew Brees, Green Bay Packers, Josh Allen, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, Michael Thomas, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Russel Wilson, Sean McVay, Seattle Seahawks, Stefon Diggs, Week 3 Picks

It’s been an tough week, but Dan will be cheered a little by the Dolphins getting their first win of the season. I know that one team will leave the match of the Bengals and Eagles with their first win of the season, but I wouldn’t like to say which. In theory there should be more 1-2 or 2-1 teams that winless or lossless teams, but I’m not sure how easy that will be to pick this week once the lines are in place.

My other concern is that we have our first positive Covid-19 test of a player since the season started, and now that games have been for long enough to be through the incubation period of the virus we shall see truly how the Covid protols hold up.

Early Games:

I think there are two stand out games in the early slate of games, although there is still plenty of interest in all games.

The Buffalo Bills host the LA Rams, which is a fascinating matchup of the Sean McVay’s rejuvenated Rams’ offence against a the Bills defense who have slipped out of the top ten by DVOA so far this season, but should provide an interesting matchup. I’m also curious to see if Josh Allen can continue his streak of throwing for over three hundred yards thanks to off-season addition of Stefon Diggs and a possible further improvement in the young quarterback’s play. I’m not looking forward to picking the game but I definitely think this is one to watch.

The other game that leaps out of the early slate is the 2-0 Las Vegas Raiders travelling to take on the New England Patriots. The Raiders offence looks promising, but as I said in my preview, the Raiders won’t be able to take advantage of this development if their defense doesn’t improve markedly and whilst a ranking of thirtieth by DVOA is technically an improvement on last season, it won’t be enough for them to be serious contenders. I think this is where they get a dose of reality as the New England Patriots may only just be top ten in overall DVOA but boy Cam Newton looked good last week in their close loss to the Seahawks. I trust Belichick and his staff to make a good enough defense by mid-season for them to be competitive and I think both teams leave this game with a 2-1 record.

Other things of interest:

I am curious to see if the Atlanta Falcons get their season turned around and it feels to me more likely that the Falcons will get their first win than both team’s current streak continues. That said, the Bears top ten defense might contain the Falcons offence, whilst the questions around Bears’ quarterback Mitchell Trubisky will not be answered by his performance against the Falcons’s twenty-eighth ranked defense.
The Eagles may well get their first win this season, but asking them to win by a clear touchdown against a team that has kept both games within a touchdown as Joe Burrow impresses early.
The Browns got a good win last week, but this is another line where I’m not sure it’s really justified. The Washington Football Team are not good, but whilst I only saw a quarter of the Cardinal’s offence going against the Football Team’s defense, I was impressed with what I saw from the Cardinals and Washington’s defence is ranked first by DVOA. I was also impressed by what the Browns did last week, but I think the Browns are going to have to prove it to me before I start picking them with this kind of line.
This might be a trap, but with a defense that is ranked twentieth by DVOA and an offence that seems to have real problems I am really not sure that the Vikings can turn it round. The Titans may have been in two close games, but they have won them both and I have a feeling they will run out close winners. However, there are both numbers and record reasons to think that the Vikings might do something in this game, if nothing else because the question is are the Titans really good enough to start the season 3-0. I’m really not sure.
The 49ers are having all kinds of injury problems and still are favourites to beat the New York Giants. Even though they will be missing Saquon Barkley I like the Giants to keep this one closer than five points at home.
I have a feeling the Texans might just be bad this season. The offence is struggling without DeAndre Hopkins and the defence hasn’t inspired. I think the depth the roster has lost through trading away draft picks is hurting this team and that GM Bill O’Brien has let down coach Bill O’Brien. It’s not impossible that the Steelers will have a let down this game, but at home I like them to win and cover a line where the half point scares, except the consensus is another half point higher. I would stay away from this game if I could but I can’t.

Bears @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Rams @ Bills (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Bengals @ Eagles (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Washington @ Browns (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Titans @ Vikings (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Raiders @ Patriots (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

49ers @ Giants (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Texans @ Steelers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Late Games:

There’s several interest contests in the late games this Sunday, but the pick has to the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Seattle Seahawks. This is going to see two teams powered by their offence do battle and it could well be this game is decided by who has the ball last. The interesting thing is that the disparity between offence and defense is actually biggest for the Seahawks, but Russel Wilson is playing so well that I’m confident that this will be a great game, but very possibly another close one for the Cowboys and I very much doubt that the best special teams in the league by DVOA through week two will gift them anything on special teams like the Falcons did last Sunday.

Notes from the other late games:

The Jests are such a mess that this line is massive, and is actually higher by consensus, which means there could be value in picking the Colts. I’m really not sure where to go in this game as although I expect the Colts to win, are they going to be dominant for a second week in a row?
The Panthers are still looking for their first win of the season, but with the Chargers giving the Chiefs a tough game last week despite being forced last minute to start rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. However, the injuries are still piling up for the Chargers again so whilst I like them to win this game, I think the Panthers could well keep this one close.
The Bucs are my survivor pick of the week, based on the injuries that the Broncos currently have and chasm between them by overall DVOA. The Broncos have played tougher than I expected, but wile I think the Bucs will win this game the line worries me. I want to stay away but as I can’t I’m going to grab the points at one of the few places where there is still a definite home field advantage, or at least early in the season.
I’ve seen a quarter of one game of the Cardinals offence so I really can’t draw any firm conclusions, but I did lke what I saw and it does feel like the Cardinals have enough to beat a Lions team who seem to be the same again under Matt Patricia. I will be curious to see if the Lions can be more competitive this week.

Jets @ Colts (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Panthers @ Chargers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Buccaneers @ Broncos (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Lions @ Cardinals (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Sunday Night Football:

Packers @ Saints (-3.5)

I think I have to say that I was wrong about the Packers. I thought they were prime candidates for regression after last season and the lack of receivers they added to the offence, but they have come out and scored forty points each week and looked dominant against the Lions in week two. There are questions surrounding the Saints at the moment and Drew Brees in particular. This could well be the beginning of the end for the forty-one year old quarterback, but any offence is going to miss a piece as important as Michael Thomas is to the Saints and so whilst I don’t think it is time for them to panic yet, the extra half point has me leaning the other way as without the noise of their home fans I expect the Saints to struggle or possibly even lose to the Packers.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Monday Night Football

Chiefs @ Ravens (-3.5)

This might be the matchup of the regular season yet alone the week. The Kansas City Chiefs had a bit of scare last week against the Chargers, but like most good teams found a way to win and certainly a team with Patrick Mahomes always has a chance. However, the Baltimore Ravens are top five by DVOA in all three phases of the game and their offence is coming off a week that saw them put up thirty-three points against the number one ranked defence in the league by DVOA. I also think that the Ravens’ strength in running the ball matches up well with the Chiefs’ defensive liability against the run (twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA) so whilst the Chiefs offence might well be explosive enough to keep them in the contest, I fancy the Ravens to win this one, and could do so well.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Maybe I Do Like Fantasy Football?

23 Wednesday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Aaron Donald, Baker Mayfield, Baltimore Ravens, Brandon Staley, Cam Newton, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Cooper Kupp, Covid-19, DK Metcalf, Doug Baldwin, Ezekiel Elliott, Face Masks, Fantasy Football, Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jalen Ramsey, James Robinson, Jared Goff, Jay Gruden, Joe Burrow, Kansas City Chiefs, Kevin Stefanski, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots, NFL, Pete Carroll, Philadelphia Eagles, Robert Woods, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, San Francisco 49ers, Sean McVay, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, Tom Coughlin, TWF NFL Dynasty League, Tyler Lockett

It feels like on the field the news has been about injuries as we start to get a handle on how teams are shaping up after the shortened pre-season, whereas the news from the side lines are the head coaches who have been fined for violating the face-covering protocols and it was certainly odd to see Pete Carroll operating without a covering Sunday night. You would expect a coach to lead by example, and I am not surprised that having already released a sternly worded memo after week one, that fines are following.

What I Saw

Week two started with the Cleveland Browns getting the better of the battle for Ohio, but once again Joe Burrow was able to get the Bengals into contention by the end of the game that they ultimately lost 35-30. I have been impressed by the Bengals’ rookie quarterback who after only two games I am predicting is a franchise quarterback. If the Bengals can build an offensive line either through development in-season or through off-season acquisitions either by draft or free-agency then I think Burrow and this offence could be specials. Burrow gets the ball out, has not been overwhelmed by starting in the NFL despite a curtailed pre-season, and if he had a bit more support from the defence the Bengals might have won one of the opening pair of games they lost. Having watched this game, I went back to look at the Browns’ loss to the Ravens and whilst I still would say there are valid concerns about Baker Mayfield in his third year, the design of Kevin Stefanski’s offence should help him, particularly with its focus on running the ball, play action and QB bootlegs. There is a lot of talent on the Browns’ roster but it will be a concern that the Bengals made this a close game. Then again, given how the Chargers competed against the Chiefs this week and how good the Ravens look full stop, I think both the Browns and the Bengals are already showing progression from last season, even if the records don’t really show it yet.

I watched two of the early Sunday games this week. In my first, the LA Rams followed up on my podcast bold prediction (I’m really not sure I’m happy about Dan making me do this) and beat the Philadelphia Eagles comfortably 37-19. The Eagles still have not quite put things together in either the offensive or defensive phase of the game, but they do have the chance to get right this week against the Bengals. However, the Eagles’ usually strong pass rush was not able to bother Jared Goff, and while he may not be in the upper echelon of quarterbacks, if you give Goff time to run Sean McVay’s system then the Ram’s offence looks really good. The influx of youth at running back has got the Rams looking more like they did in the first two seasons under McVay, and with half a dozen players catching the ball there looks to be support for Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. The defence isn’t particularly inspiring despite having two all-star talents in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsay, and currently ranks fourteenth in the league by DVOA, but it doesn’t have to be that good for the Rams to win and as they adjust to new coordinator Brandon Staley they may well improve. I have my concerns about the Eagles, but this is a team trying to bed in new players and dealing with injuries so whilst the playoffs are not beyond the realms of possibility yet, they will need to start finding some form soon. Still, the Bengals could be just the team they need to face…

The other early game I watched was the thoroughly entertaining contest that saw the Jacksonville Jaguars taking on the Tennessee Titans, but ultimately losing 33-30. In truth, the Titans were the better team who now seem to play good enough defence and offence to always be competitive and this has been the case ever since Ryan Tannehill established himself as their starting quarterback last season. For the first few seasons that I was writing this blog, it felt like the Titans didn’t really have an identity or the players to catch your attention, but Mike Vrabel and some good drafting has changed all of that. A defensive ranking of seventeenth by DVOA and a top ten offence is a similar formula to the Rams and looks to be enough to compete in the AFC South dvision and perhaps have more success in the play-offs, although the Titans do look a step down from the truly elite teams. However, they did have to work for this game and part of that is because the Jaguars are looking pretty good for a team that a lot of people thought were in for a rebuilding year. However, rookie running back James Robinson looked dynamic running for one hundred yards and catching a a couple of balls out the backfield as Gardner Minshew continues to outplay his sixth round draft status. The young talent, when combined with the off-season hiring of Jay Gruden as offensive coordinator looks like it is going to be too good for the Jaguars to have the high draft pick some were suggesting was the goal for the season. Yes the Jaguars are playing a lot of young players, but it looks like they might have something and perhaps the absence of Tom Coughlin and his frequent fines is helping the talent flourish in Jacksonville. I’m not one for big predictions (despite Dan’s best efforts) but there might be some hope for Jaguars yet.

The Sunday night game was a humdinger of a battle between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots that the Seahawks held on to win 35-30 when their defence stuffed Cam Newton on a final chance to score a winning touchdown. It was looking ominous for the Seahawks as Newton lined up once again behind a jumbo formation in a shotgun position and received the snap. Newton had already delivered two rushing touchdowns and looked set to win the game, but the Seattle defence swarmed to stuff him short of the goal line. However, the exciting thing for the Patriots in this game was not that Newton looked good running the ball, but that he threw the ball as well as he has done for a long time. The power was there and the Patriots are beginning to look like a new iteration of their usual perennially successful franchise. Something similar could be said for the Seahawks, whose defence may be languishing as twenty-fourth by DVOA but are second in offence thanks to Russel Wilson playing outstandingly well. The drafting of DK Metcalf last year to pair with Tyler Lockett has given Russell a fearsome pair of receivers to throw to despite Doug Baldwin’s retirement. The Seahawks are one of three unbeaten teams in the NFC West, which is shaping up as the strongest division in the league, with last year’s Super Bowl runners up currently bottom of the divison with a 1-1 record thanks to a slew of injuries. This was a game that lived up to its Sunday night billing and I have a feeling both teams will be featured plenty of more times before the season is through.

What I Heard

It has been a busy week, but the thing that leaps to my mind is that a lot of people who power rank teams are vaulting the Ravens over the Chiefs into first in the league, and I can absolutely see why. If you win two games by over sixteen points to start your season and are top five by DVOA in all three phases of the game then you have not just got a good team, but a potentially great one. It is too early to say anything definitive, particularly based on DVOA given that we have an even smaller sample size to work from in week than usual due to the lack of pre-season games, but I am curious to see how things develop in the coming weeks. Particularly as we are being treated to the Chiefs visiting the Ravens on Monday night.

What I Think

It was frustrating not being able to get a coaching film post up last week. Some of that was work being busy, but there was also some kind of issues with getting coaching film at all last week as I heard several of the podcasters I listen to complaining about it, and the US usually get it a day earlier that we do. If I was really together, I should look at using a VPN to sign up for the US version of Gamepass again as the interface for the EU version is no where near as good as what we used to have. We don’t even get a list of plays to browse by when working with coaching film. It’s pretty frustrating that we are now multiple years into having an EU version of Gamepass and we’re still missing basic functions we used to have when signed up in the US. It’s also noticeable that the Twitter account for the EU NFL Gamepass service has disappeared, almost as if it was highlighting more problems than it was solving.

What I Know

I have avoided playing fantasy football for years after previous disappointments. I still believe in the importance of watching whole games, looking at coaching film, but I am enjoying our new dynasty league and not just because so far I’m winning games. It helps that we know everyone by name and I do like the dynasty format as it enables you to switch track if your teams accumulates too many injuries and with IR and the Taxi squad it feels like you are more in control of your own destiny. You’ll still need luck to win a championship, and it can still all go wrong even if you have made the right moves but that this way you still have options..

Let’s see if that’s how I feel when the losses start racking up.

What I Hope

I have seen that we already have coach’s film available as I was able to check the Seahawks defensive stand on the last play of the game on Sunday. I’m looking at some play diagramming options so there may well be some graphics in the future if I can get that to work. I’m just hoping I get to watch more than 3/8^ths of a game this week so I can get an actual post up, but I will always have the memories of what happened to poor Ezekiel Elliot when the protection scheme meant he had to try to block Aaron Donald.

2020 Week Two Picks

20 Sunday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Aaron Rodgers, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Brian Flores, Cam Newton, Carson Wentz, Chris Godwin, Dallas Cowboys, DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Pederson, Gardner Minshew, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Josh Allen, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, Le'Veon Bell, Michael Thomas, Mike McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings, Mitchell Trubisky, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Ron Rivera, Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks, Tom Brady, Tua Tagovailoa, Washington Football Team, Week 2 Picks

We are still early enough in the season that every game holds plenty questions as we don’t truly have a handle on how all the teams compare.

Early Games:

The games that leap out of the early slate first are the ones that see two 0-1 teams facing each other as one team will get over the early loss and another is going to be looking at a very tough if not impossible task to get to the play-offs.

The Cowboys host the Falcons is one such game and having talked about the use of analytics and indeed gone for it on a fourth down, this year’s Cowboys under Mike McCarthy don’t look that different to last season’s only the defence appears to be thinner and already weakened by injuries. The Flacons looked like their defence was still a problem and their offence generated plenty of stats but could not keep up with the Seahawks last week. I like the Cowboys to win this game, but I am not sure they are going to do it by six points, although I think this could be a very entertaining game with plenty of scoring..

The Vikings will be looking to get over last week’s heavy loss to the Packers, but they face a Colts team who moved the ball well enough and I am still concerned about the number of new players on the Vikings’ defence. I am making a numbers based play in this game, but this is definitely one to watch for me as I’m still trying to figure out these teams.

Finally, the Eagles lost to a surprisingly tough Washington Football Team in week one, with their offence struggling thanks to the injuries on the offensive line and never quite getting things together. People are already asking questions about Carson Wentz and Doug Pederson and this week they host a Rams team who started with a win against the Cowboys and who look to have some of their offensive mojo back. There are plenty of questions around both teams, but I have that bit more faith in the Rams right now and so I am going against the numbers in my spreadsheet and I am just hoping that I am not wrong.

Other things of interest:

Josh Allen threw the ball for three hundred yards last week, but this is a test of whether they can beat the teams that they should, whilst the Dolphins will be looking to bounce back in a second divisional game as Brian Flores tries to build on last season. It will not take many losses for the clamor for Tua to start in Miami.
The Giants are not a good football team, but the Bears had to rely on fourth quarter heroics from Mitchell Trubisky to get their win last week so which version of the Bears offence is the true one and can the Giants show signs of improvement?
The Broncos were more competitive than I was expecting last week, but they have to face a Steelers team who look like they have the capacity to make the Ravens work for the AFC North title.
The Lions looked back to their familiar losing ways last week, so can they truly compete on the road against the Packers, or will Aaron Rodgers continue to look sharp as the Packers try to establish themselves as the best team in the NFC North and I am already wondering if I was wrong about them and they may not regress as much as I thought.
The Titans won a close game on Monday, but the offence did not look as strong as it did late last season so given that the Jaguars won in week one with Gardner Minshew looking like he has build on his debut season, I wonder why the Jaguars are getting this many points
I’m not sure what the Jets are meant to be building on going forward, there are plenty of questions surrounding Sam Darnold’s development and Le’Veon Bell is injured and doing little to justify his contract. The 49ers have a cluster of injuries at receiver and lost to the Cardinals last week – I wonder how the 49ers will pull things together but I still would be surprised if the Jets can compete in this one
The Buccaneers have plenty of work to do on offence but receiver Chris Godwin being out of the game with a concussion won’t help Tom Brady look better than he did last week. I think the Bucs can bounce back against the Panthers, but I don’t think it is a sure thing given how close the Panthers pushed the Raiders last week so the points looks wonky to me.

Falcons @ Cowboys (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Bills @ Dolphins (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Giants @ Bears (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Broncos @ Steelers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Lions @ Packers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Jaguars @ Titans (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Vikings @ Colts (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Rams @ Eagles (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Rams

49ers @ Jets (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Panthers @ Buccaneers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Late Games:

Despite all the turmoil of the off-season, Ron Rivera got off to a winning start with Washington, but I don’t know how good they truly are given the problems the Eagles have. That said, I would expect Washington to be a tougher team to face under their new head coach. The Cardinals got off to a winning start with DeAndre Hopkins giving their offence a boost as quarterback Kyler Murray builds on his promising rookie season. I would not be surprised if the Cardinals win, but this line looks rich to me.

The other games look somewhat lopsided as they feature the two AFC teams who looked ominously good last week. The line might be too big for the Chiefs to cover but I couldn’t bring myself to pick the Chargers, particularly as they lost their starting center as they once again they are struggling with injuries whilst I don’t trust the Texans’ defense to be able to contain the Ravens potent offence.

Washington @ Cardinals (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Chiefs @ Chargers (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Ravens @ Texans (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Sunday Night Football:

Patriots @ Seahawks (-4.5)

The re-run of Super Bowl XLIX features very different rosters but looks a hugely enticing game. The Patriots ran Cam Newton a lot last week, but some of them were read-option plays according to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and with the Pat’s chameleon approach to game plans you don’t know if the Pats offence will change this week or if Newton will be heavily running again. However, the Seahawks looked like an offensive team last week with their defense only ranking twenty-first in the league by DVOA while Russell Wilson completed a preposterous thirty-one of thirty-five passes for three hundred and twenty-two yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. I an really not sure who will run out winners in this one, but it promises to be a fascinating game featuring as it does half of the top four teams in DVOA after week one.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Monday Night Football

Saints @ Raiders (+5.5)

The Saints got the win in week one, but have ruled out Michael Thomas for several weeks with a high-ankle injury and he didn’t look right in week one. However, if the offence wasn’t exactly their high flying best, the defence looked good against the Bucs and the Saints look set for another strong season. The Raiders play their first game in their new home after their week one win on the road against the Panthers. The big question for me is whether the Raiders defense can improve on the last two seasons and this will be a stiffer test than the Panthers new offence last week. The Raiders are one of the teams I am not sure about so I am very interested to see how the Raiders shape up against one of the best teams in the NFC in recent seasons.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

It is Not Time to Panic, yet…

16 Wednesday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

AJ Green, Alvin Kamara, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Cincinnati Bengals, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Dak Prescott, David Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Drew Bledsoe, Drew Brees, Houston Texans, Jeff Benedict, Joe Burrow, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Chargers, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Peter King, Robert Kraft, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, The Dynasty, Tom Brady, Week One

Here we are looking at the second week of the 2020 season and so far we got through the first week of games with the storylines being what happened on the field and not any kind of Covid outbreak. There is still a long way to go and the problem with Covid-19 is that it can spread rapidly so whilst the teams and the locker room are managing to police themselves so far, an already long season looks like a mammoth exercise in endurance. There may well be an asterisk placed against this season by the time it is done, but if the NFL manages to crown a champion, they will be truly worthy.

What I Saw

The season opened with the Kansas City Chiefs in ominous form, easily beating the Houston Texans 34-20 and looking every inch the defending champions. The Chiefs DVOA rankings look relatively modest, but rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire quickly established himself with one hundred and thirty-eight yards rushing, and the passing attack distributed the ball efficiently between half a dozen receivers. The numbers for Patrick Mahomes look relatively modest but belie how in control of this game the Chiefs were. The Houston Texans did take the lead in this game after a crisp second drive finished with a nineteen yard touchdown run from David Johnson who showed some of the explosion he was missing last year as he tries to get somewhere near the Pro Bowl form he showed back in 2016. However, after the Texans surrendered their lead towards the end of the second quarter they never got close again as the offence looked to be missing DeAndre Hopkins and could not keep up with the Chiefs, particularly as the Texans’ defence could not contain the Cheif’s offence. It is way to early to write off the Texans as head coach Bill O’Brien has a history of competing in their division but I do worry they are not setup to maximise the window they have with Deshaun Watson.

I watched two games from the late slate of Sunday games. The Cincinnati Bengals hosted the LA Chargers and in a parallel universe somewhere beat them with a pass to AJ Green in the dying seconds that didn’t get the offensive PI call that wiped out Burrow’s chance of a debut win. The game could have been taken into overtime with an eminently kickable field goal, but the Chargers played their own part in getting the 16-13 win. The Bengals offensive line struggled in the first half as the Chargers introduced Burrow to what an NFL pass rush can do. This not only resulted in three sacks but Burrow struggled early and in the second half he gifted the Chargers an interception with an ill advised shovel pass, but the second half and the final drive showed glimpses of what he could become. Not to mention the Bengals defence looked better than it did last season. It’s too early to tell just how good either of these teams are in the context of the league, but I’m hopeful that the Bengals will remain competitive and I expect the same from the Chargers.

The final game I watched fully was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit to New Orleans where they lost to the Saints 34-24. It was not the premier contest you might have expected with Tom Brady and Drew Brees as the quarterbacks. In a new uniform Tom Brady had some moments and a couple of nice deep balls, but also looked like a quarterback in a new offensive system and with special teams mishaps and uncharacteristic interceptions the Bucs were unable to keep up with the Saints. This time the Bucs surrendered an early lead in the second quarter and never really got close to the Saint. The Saints defence looked good and generated turnovers whilst their offence spread the ball around without dominating. Alvin Kamara caught and rushed for a touchdown but Drew Brees only threw for one hundred and sixty yards so I have no doubt that people have his throws under the microscope for the next few weeks. I still like the Saints to be one of the teams in the NFC, but it looks like Brady and the Bucs have some work to do if they want to join them in the play-offs.

What I Heard

With the abbreviated pre-season it is perhaps not surprising that it was the established premier coaches who won their first games. For example, the Patriots utilised Cam Newton effectively and will be looking to pile the pressure on the Bills who many were tipping to be favourites for the division. Execution, third-down play, and conditioning is what will win games in this early part of the season.

It will be no surprise to anyone that Peter King is good at covering the NFL, but this week’s podcast interview with author Jeff Benedict was really good and his new book, The Dynasty sounds like a really good book unless you’re my friend Dan and pathologically hate the Pats for AFC East reasons.

I thoroughly enjoyed the story of Tom Brady being a Californian stuck in the snow and in danger of missing Bill Belichick’s mandatory three-hour early arrival meeting ahead of a game as he’s stuck on a gridlocked freeway. However, Brady is smart enough to call the Pats’ head of security, who confirms he is in his yellow jeep and within ten minutes state troopers arrive and give him an escort through the traffic. It sounds like a scene from a movie, but the other drivers soon realise who is being prioritised through and start honking their horns and cheering as other Pats’ players fall in line behind the convoy, recognising Brady’s car and everyone makes it to the game. It sounds like a movie. Oh, and this is ahead of the infamous tuck rule game against the Raiders.

However, believe it or not, that’s not the best story in the podcast, and nor is the one about how Bon Jovi was a part of Robert Kraft’s vetting process for Belichick. No, author Benedict read his own prologue of the day where Drew Bledsoe could have died and trust me, even if you can’t stomach a book about the last twenty years or the Patriots, you should listen to that story because it is a work of a proper writer.

I hope one day to write something as good as that. I also enjoyed them keeping Peter King’s unfiltered response during the recording process.

What I Think

Every year going into week two I try to remember that it is early in the season, that a team is more likely to finish week two 1-1 than 2-0 or 0-2, but it is very hard to make it into the play-offs if you start the season 0-2.

There might be some more room to manoeuvre this season given the expanded play-offs, but there will be a number of teams in the AFC and NFC who are expecting to compete for the play-offs who will be desperate for a win this week.

What I say to fans of those teams is that it is not time to panic, yet… I would wait until the end of week three and even then, unlikely runs can happen, but what most teams and fans will be hoping is that by then they have not left themselves too much to do already.

What I Know

What I know right now is that no one’s life currently looks like they planned at the beginning of the year. We are all struggling to adjust, and I am sure that is true for everyone working in the NFL and not just for Covid-19 related reasons.

To be honest, the blog still feel odd to me. It’s not a surprise, there are meant to be three of us involved and now we’re down to two a person is missing from our usual conversations and plans.

I’m trying to enjoy the process, but I wonder about the grind of the season. It’s never work, but it can get to you and given how I feel going into week two, I can’t help but wonder how the players are going to find it. That’s why I found Dak Prescott’s honesty about his struggles with his mental health earlier this year so moving.

There are still things to take from the league, and I just hope that at some point things to feel less heavy, even if it is going to feel strange for a while.

What I Hope

I’m going to be selfish this week, I’m hoping for a Thursday night win for the Bengals, and that Joe Burrow gets that first win early so the Bengals can start building something that might one day lead back to the Super Bowl.

It all has to start with that first win.

I hope it is soon.

The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

Tag Archives: New England Patriots

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It is Not Time to Panic, yet…

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What I Heard

What I Think

What I Know

What I Hope