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Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Fourteen

06 Thursday Dec 2018

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So here we are, running straight into week fourteen with Dan’s dad and I neck and neck in the picks competition and both Dan and I failing to score points in the trivia last week. We should probably be awarding points for the weeks when Dan’s dad has stumped both Dan and I to give him the chance to win the competition! Anyway, I’m genuinely curious about tonight’s game so let’s get to it.

Gee:    Week 13   9-7             Overall   101-91
Dan:    Week 13   7-9             Overall   90-102

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5)

I am really not sure what to make of these teams. The Titans have been inconsistent all year with some good looking wins but equally baffling losses but at 6-6 still have an outside chance of a playoff spot with a strong finish. It will be too late for the visiting Jaguars who finally broke their losing streak with a 6-0 win over the Colts last week but they have a poor record visiting the Titans having lost their last four games at the Nissan Stadium and nine of their last twelve visits there. The extra half point is a little concerning but at home on a Thursday night I’ll take it and hope that the Jaguars aren’t due a win on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:     Jaguars

‘In the first of this week’s ‘opposite picks’ (going completely against my instinct) I’ll go with the Jags please!’

Week Fourteen Trivia

‘We are certainly heading into this season’s finishing strait and nip and tuck doesn’t even come close as the competition intensifies. I’m polishing my ‘picking pin’ and expecting the wheels to come off but until it happens I’ll keep breaking the plane.

Last week I posed the question about what rule change was instigated as a result of Oakland’s Lester Hayes.

Well Gee’s speculation of a dodgy Oakland tactic was closer than he might have suspected but didn’t butter any parsnips with an idea about on-field celebrations.

Dan conceded that he wasn’t familiar with this but did spot that it would have something to do with him being a Receiver.

This one is quite funny, in fact I came across this as one of the few NFL facts on QI. Lester, known as ‘The Judge’ or ‘Lester the molester’ (no no not that kind) used a product called Stickum, a glue-like substance, which he covered his hands with to aid catching. Banned in the early 80’s he is reportedly quoted as saying that ‘Without Stickum I couldn’t catch a cold in Antarctica’. It’s like the 12 inch wide cricket bat that covered the stumps. The rule was changed to close the loop hole and this is the case with Stickum.

I nearly asked about who introduced the face masks following some horrific injuries – that one I’ll leave hanging for now!

Onto week 14:

Which team ended last season with 5 straight wins having starting it 1-10?

I should really deduct points for wrong answers but not every question needs to be a stinker does it?

Happy Triv’ing’

The NFL’s Problem is a Reflection of Society

05 Wednesday Dec 2018

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I don’t really want to be writing this post, there were comebacks and playoff changing results over the week thirteen games to discuss, another coach fired, and closer to home the picks competition through thirteen weeks has me level with Dan’s dad, but there’s a bigger topic to discuss.

There are always so many things going on around the league and I didn’t quite get to the San Francisco 49ers cutting Reuben Foster after he was charged on a count of domestic violence, and the subsequent claiming of him off waivers by Washington. This wasn’t so much ducking the issue as the timing of news not quite lining up with when I was sitting down to write. However, on Friday TMZ released a video they had obtained of the Kansas City Chiefs’ Kareem Hunt shoving and kicking a woman in an incident that took place in in a hotel back in February. The Chiefs were aware of the incident but cut Hunt straight away as the video, which they had not been able to obtain, proved that Hunt had lied to them. I don’t know if seeing the reaction to Washington’s claiming of Foster, or the fact that there was video was the deciding factor, but no team put a claim in for Hunt so he cleared waivers and is now a free agent.

Both players are now on the commissioner’s exempt list and we are back to discussing the way the league handles discipline and in particular violence against women.

We have moved on slightly from the two game suspension that was handed to Ray Rice after his domestic violence situation, but the parallels with the Hunt situation are all too clear given that once again it was the media finding the video that triggered a response from the NFL. You can make the argument that it is harder for the NFL to approach the relevant parties and obtain the video through official channels than it is for TMZ to get hold of the video but it is hard to feel sympathy for a league that hadn’t even interviewed Hunt about the incident as part of their investigation. I’m also not sure how much credit the Chiefs should get for their quick action as this is not the only incident that is swirling around Hunt and they still have Tyreek Hill on their roster, who assaulted his pregnant partner whilst at college and was suspended but they drafted him anyway.

Even when there is video of an assault that doesn’t seem to always provoke a reaction from a team or the league. The punishment for Joe Mixon, who punched a woman in a coffee shop after an altercation that left her with multiple facial fractures having hit a table as she fell, was to not be invited to the draft combine and the Bengals saw fit to draft him in the second round…

To me eyes we have an interaction of three factors that contribute to the poor way the NFL handles these situations.

The first factor is an extension of something that permeates the league for all players, which is the greater the talent, the greater the tolerance and teams seem incapable of resisting a talent that could give them a competitive edge on the field except if it directly hurts their profitability. There are multiple players currently playing that have such incidents in the past but there is still no roster spot for Colin Kaepernick after his ghastly crime of peaceful protest. It can only be because Washington were worried about missing out that they put in a claim for Reuben Foster. They can talk all they want about having multiple players on their roster who played with him in college and who could help provide an environment for him to turnaround his life. At the end of the day they were willing to pay thousands of dollars a week to a player who cannot play, train or even attend a game at the moment, in the hope that if he can work his way back onto the field his talent will be worth the bad PR. Washington are not the only team who have run this equation and come to such a decision, although few have been quite so ham fisted in the execution or seemingly surprised by the negative reaction to their move.

The second factor is that it seems that even with a new standard released by the league (without consultation with the players I should add) after the Ray Rice incident that saw Ezekiel Elliott miss six games last season, it still feels like the process is far too arbitrary. Some combination of the teams and the league investigate situations and then something might or might not happen, unless a video appears and then something definitely will. Now carrying out your own investigation is not easy and it takes a long time for police investigations and legal proceedings to be fully resolved. Suspension and placement on something like the commission exempt list is not in of itself a bad idea, but the arbitrary way the NFL seems to handle the investigations and subsequent discipline does not inspire confidence. Nor does the lack of openness in the process, which would help people to understand how decisions have been made. Currently it feels like these decisions are currently made in reaction to media scrutiny rather than the nature of the situation themselves.

Finally, the third factor is that we don’t handle these incidents well as a society. If the recent movements to give greater voice to the victims of domestic or sexual violence have shown us anything, it is not only that such violence and sexual predation is wider spread than many were prepared to admit, but that it is still very hard to get such cases successfully prosecuted. Whether it is the rugby rape trial in Ireland, or the Greg Hardy case where he was found guilty initially but late cleared when the girlfriend who had been choked and thrown on a couch covered in assault rifles couldn’t be contacted to be tried again in front of a jury, it is hard to get justice or establish what happened.

If the legal system doesn’t seem to be serving victims and results in a confused situation, is it any wonder that sports leagues, setup to govern a sport are failing to adequately deal with it but that doesn’t mean they get a free pass. The NFL could handle this so much better. There is a world of difference between someone being denied the opportunity to make a living and having the right to play a sport for a lot of money. The NFL is already providing some training and resources to players, but they could both be more active in advocating for change and holding their players to a higher standard.

It is all too easy to slip into characterisation of men who commit assault or acts of domestic violence as men out of control. Yes there can be anger issues, sometimes substance abuse, and if these are a result of work environments then teams and the league have a duty of care to their players but the narrative of monsters is damaging because the problem is most commonly men. Most assaults on women are carried out by men they know, not random monsters or strangers but by someone they know. NFL players are people with specific talents but still people, and this is a problem that is not limited to sports stars, it is a reflection of very real problems that are far too prevalent in society. With the resources available to them sports franchises can do more and if you ask why, how about because they have the power to reach directly into the very culture that needs to change? If we are to stop this problem then men need to talk about it, call each other out on attitudes that need to change, and be willing allies in the changing of society. It’s not a simple thing and requires consistent engagement and discussion, but it’s that rather than paying lip service that will change things. Kareem Hunt has been asking for forgiveness and has acknowledged he has done wrong. He can ask for forgiveness, and maybe one day he can earn it, but it should take more than words to deserve it. It’s not something we can forget, and nor should we. Only his actions going forward can rehabilitate him but given his age and talent I suspect that we have not seen the last of him on a football field. I’m not sure if he can earn that chance in my eyes, and certainly the NFL should make damn sure he tries before they let him anywhere near the field, but I don’t know if they will. I’m not sure that doesn’t speak more eloquently about the scale of the problem than anything I have written in this post but I had to try. We all do.

AAF: Texans Offence

02 Sunday Dec 2018

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So having written in the week that I hadn’t paid enough attention to the Houston Texans given their current eight game win streak and place atop the AFC South, I thought I would make them the focus of this week’s amateur adventures in film. I was obviously tempted to watch their defence given how well JJ Watt is playing, but the bigger unknown for me was what they were doing on offence so that is the tape I watched, although this also led me to watch a second team putting up a lot of points against the Titans’ defence.

So much like the Colts offence I watched last week, the Texans used a lot of 11 personnel in a shotgun formation and 12 personnel in singleback formation with the quarterback under centre. However, the execution was pretty different and part of that is due to the difference in quality between the two lines. It wasn’t that the Texans’ o-line would get no push, and they were also pulling offensive linemen and tight ends in the running game like the Colts would, but they were not as effective or efficient in-between the tackles. The Texans also have a two back rotation and the real effective running attack was when Lamar Miller attacked the edges of the defence. He only had to escape two would be tacklers on the run that went ninety-seven yards for a touchdown as once he’d got past the linebacker and safety it was foot race to the end zone, but even if you take out that run he still averaged 5.9 yards on eleven carries. What made the Texans run game so effective was the combination of this production from Miller with the read-option threat of Deshaun Watson who also had seventy yards on nine carries. One of those was a scramble where the defence opened up before Watson who was able to use his athleticism to exploit a seam in the defence. The other back who saw continued usage, Alfred Blue, was not as effective in the run game as he tended to run between the tackles but he was also used as a slot receiver close to the line as part of empty backfield looks and did catch a pass for thirteen yards as well as lead blocking for Lamar Miller on a play.

If that was the source of the Texans success running the ball, the word I would use to describe their passing game was efficient with a few deep shots thrown in, but in the main Watson was not asked to drop back and make complex reads of the defence. Often the ball would come out quickly for receivers who had been schemed open, or for short passes over the middle. Still, Watson completed nineteen of his twenty four passes for two hundred and ten yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Yes he gave up four sacks where on occasion you might want him to throw the ball away, but with his athleticism you can understand why he is confident in his ability to escape the rush and on one play he actually managed to duck under an attempted sack and scramble for a gain. The other nice thing was that I didn’t see Watson taking the kind of shots that earlier in the season meant he had to play games with broken ribs and for one game saw him take a bus to a road game rather than fly. It should also be pointed out that Watson distributed the ball nicely, with nine separate players catching a pass.

In terms of receivers the Texans used Keke Coutee a lot in the slot and he could be seen running a lot of jet motion although the Texans didn’t actually ask him to run the ball. The obvious stand out is still DeAndre Hopkins who had a relatively quiet game, although when you generate two hundred and eighty-one yards on the ground that will happen, but is still an incredibly dynamic player whilst Demaryius Thomas is playing as a solid complement and caught both of Deshaun Watson’s touchdown passes.

Finally, as I mentioned earlier, the Texans would often have two tight-ends on the field with Ryan Griffinin leading the way in terms of receiving yards, but him and Jordan Thomas spent a lot of time on the field with Thomas often moving in motion and pulling to block a lot. Meanwhile Jordan Akins played more of a H-back role as line up and lined a full back a number of times as well as playing tight end.

I would say that you can still tell the Deshaun Watson is a young quarterback, but the offence has clearly developed over the season and Watson was working his way back from a nasty knee injury so it makes sense that it would take some time to get back to his best. The form he had last season before the injury was never going to be sustainable in the long term, but this offence has been effective although Watson still takes unnecessary sacks at times and can be flustered in the pocket, but with time and and an improved offensive line the sky is the limit for this team in the near future.

Week Thirteen Picks

02 Sunday Dec 2018

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We had a competitive Thursday night game that proved that defence can still win against one of the elite offences that have so dominated this season, but frankly it feels like once again the football aspect of NFL has to take a back seat to the management of the game. I’ll write more fully about that during the week, but the news about both Reuben Foster and Kareem Hunt makes it hard to feel enthusiastic right now. Still, there are games going ahead and so I’ll try to keep to normality for now so before I get to the pics here’s this week’s trivia questions.

‘Week 13 is a little more random but did appear as a fact in QI. I’ve checked and it holds up so:

What rule change did Oakland’s receiver Lester Hayes instigate?’

I am really struggling on this one, I would love to say that I have an idea but I’m scrambling in the dark and I’m sure I know the name but an answer won’t come. As he’s a named receiver I can’t go as far back as something to do with the early forward passes and I’m tempted by some kind of dirty block or tactic given the reputation of the Raiders during their heyday. I have no idea so going to plump for some kind of rule regarding celebrations after a touchdown.

‘I’m going to be honest, I don’t even know who the player is, so chances of me getting this one right I would say are slim to none. I’ve tried to think of something specifically that a Receiver might get pulled up for so I’ll say Offensive Pass Interference.’

Ravens @ Falcons (+1.5)

The Baltimore Ravens have found a spark in rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson that has seen the Ravens win two games in a row, and this week they travel to face an Atlanta Falcons team who season is over but for the games. The line might bite me but the Ravens have all the momentum in this one.

Gee’s Pick       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Bills @ Dolphins (-5.5)

It is interesting that the Miami Dolphins are laying this number of points after their close loss against the Colts when the Buffalo Bills are also coming in with a two game win streak of their own. I know the Bills only beat the Jets and Jaguars but this line feels a little high to me. I can absolutely see the Dolphins winning but they don’t fill me with quite this level of confidence.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:     Dolphins

Bears @ Giants (+4.5)

For me the Chicago Bears have demonstrated themselves worthy of trust over the last few weeks and going into this game they should have more than enough to beat a New York Giants team who couldn’t quite make it three wins in a row against the Eagles last week. The points are really quite tempting but not when the Bears are on such a run of form and have had a long week of rest going into this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Broncos @ Bengals (+3.5)

This one feels painfully frustrating as three and a half points is tempting, but with all that has befallen the Bengals in recent weeks, the visit of a team with the number three rush attack in the league by DVOA is the last thing our defence needs to face. The Broncos have the same record as the Bengals and so perhaps I am being overly pessimistic but I can’t see this one working out, although I could regret grabbing all those points.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Browns @ Texans (-6.5)

I have just finished watching the Houston Texans offence, which was effective in chunk plays rather than being efficient and who welcome a Cleveland Browns team who have two games straight. Whatever your views on how Baker Mayfield expressed his feeling about Hue Jackson, he has been very effective since Freddie Kitchens took over the play calling, but whether that is enough to cope with the top five Texan defence we shall just have to see. However, for me this is just too many points in what should be a really competitive game.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Rams @ Lions (+9.5)

The LA Rams come of their and travel to the Detroit Lions and this puts me in a real conundrum as I do expect the Rams to win but this is a lot of points, even if the Lions do seem to randomly put up good performances and even wins against good teams. Still, without Kerryon Johson I find it hard to see the Lions having the ball control to win this game but this number is too big for a team who have won a lot of games but not beaten anybody by ten since they played the 49ers in week seven.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Cardinals @ Packers (-14.5)

This is a huge line and given the way the Green Bay Packers have played this season it feels much too high even if the Packers are entertaining the worst team in the league. The Cardinals are actually over ten percentage points worse by DVOA than the thirty-first ranked Raiders but this is still a line that is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Colts @ Jaguars (+3.5)

This is one of the trickier lines for me in that the plus three and a half number is quite tempting as a home underdog but we just don’t know what we are going to get out of the Jacksonville Jaguars given they have fired their offensive coordinator and are starting Cody Kessler at quarterback. This might have given them a boost but with Leonard Fournette suspended after he went on the field to throw a punch last week we know that there is very little discipline in the Jaguars team at the moment. Meanwhile the Indianapolis Colts have quietly won five straight and their offence is really humming. The numbers might suggest a Jaguars pick but I can’t bring myself to do it and I just hope I don’t regret this.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

This is a similarly tricky line but for lightly different reasons that the previous game as the Carolina Panthers offence has looked really good this season but this has not resulted in wins over recent weeks. The stretch of three losses started with a blowout Thursday night loss to the Steelers, which can happen but the Panthers then lost by a point to the Lions and a field goal to the Seahawks and just can’t afford to fall further behind in the race for the playoffs. I like them to get back on track in a divisional game against a struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers team but the points give me real pause, and at some point I have to trust the numbers. Maybe the Panthers get right with a big win but right now I can’t predict them to win by more than a field goal on the road with what has been happening.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Jets @ Titans (-9.5)

This a very big number considering that the New York Jets are only ranked two places lower than the Tennessee Titans by DOVA and only 2.8% worse. It might be further confused by the up and down nature of the Titans results as in the last four games they have beaten the Cowboys by fourteen and the Patriots by twenty-four but then lost by twenty-eight to the Colts and by seventeen to the Texans. It feels like they could very well get back on track against a Jets team who are really struggling but is ten points really a realistic winning margin. It could be given their past, but I don’t think I can quite pick it to happen.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:     Titans

Chiefs @ Raiders (+14.5)

The Oakland Raiders may not be the worst team in the league by DVOA, but they are not looking to win now and that has shown up in their performance this season. However, this is a huge line and yes the Chiefs are coming off a bye, but they have also just cut running back Kareem Hunt after video of him kicking and shoving a woman was released by TMZ. I don’t expect the Chiefs to do anything other than win, and they may even be determined to show that the cutting of their star running back won’t hamper their chances but this line is just too rich for me given the circumstances.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Vikings @ Patriots (-6.5)

This looks like a great game as the Minnesota Vikings visit the New England Patriots coming off a good win against the Packers where there defence looked like it was coming back to something like its normal form. The Patriots themselves looked better in their win over the Jets last week but there are still questions about their offence and whilst I can see why they are favourites, this looks like too many points to me. That is often a foolish thing to say about the Patriots but there are enough injuries and questions about this iteration of the Patriots that I’m happy to back the Vikings to keep it with seven. Of course if I’m wrong this could ultimately lead to the blog being in Vikings colours next season!

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

49ers @ Seahawks (-10.5)

This game is a curious one to me in terms of picking as this number is not that far off what I might expect given how these two teams have played in recent weeks but it is a lot. The San Francisco 49ers have really struggled this season and having lost by twenty points to the Buccaneers last week I find it hard to see them being that competitive against a Seahawks team who seem to be genuinely pretty good and have won their last five meetings with the 49ers at Century Link field. The divisional aspect of this game does make me pause but given the relative form I’m going to nervously back the Seahawks.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Chargers @ Steelers (-3.5)

This looks to be the marquee matchup of the week with the LA Chargers heading into Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team where this always seems to be some kind of low key drama even if nothing major has occurred. Of course last week the Steelers lost to the Denver Broncos on the road but the then the Steelers are worse on the road and the Broncos are better at home so that doesn’t mean the Steelers can’t bounce back this week. However, the extra half point does concern me given that the Chargers are ranked a couple of places higher by DVOA and that is just enough to make me pick the Chargers.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Washington @ Eagles (-6.5)

This is a huge game for the Philadelphia Eagles who have to win this game to stay a game behind the Cowboys so they stand some kind of chance of catching when they face each other in week fourteen. It is very possibly too late for the Eagles given that the Cowboys look great at the moment and they also have to face the Rams and the Texans. I can see them winning this game against a Washington side who are injured and making the news for all of the wrong reason but to do so by a touchdown when it took them until the fourth quarter to get a lead against the Giants seems unlikely. I am not saying it can’t happen given the circumstances, but I’m not sure either team are what you would call good at the moment.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Thirteen

29 Thursday Nov 2018

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So we roll into the week thirteen picks with me one point ahead of Dan’s dad and nine over Dan so let’s see what this week holds.

Gee: Week 12 11-4 Overall 92-84
Dan: Week 12 6-9 Overall 83-93

Saints @ Cowboys (+7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have dragged themselves into the race for the NFC East thanks to a three game win streak that includes two victories over divisional opponents but that run of good from is about to crash into the juggernaut that is the New Orleans Saints. Not only do the Cowboys have to contend with Drew Brees, but thanks to playing in a dome they don’t even have bad weather as a factor to hamper the veteran quarterback. I’m not sure how much help that would be given the effectiveness of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram in the running game and though their defence only ranks fourteenth by DVOA, that is more than effective given with the offensive efficiency the Saints possess. I can see the value argument that the home team on a Thursday night getting seven and a half points should be a good bet, and I may well regret this, but I just can’t look past the Saints given their form. The game should be a cracker and the Cowboys could well prove me wrong but I don’t think them covering this line is the more likely event to occur.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

‘Saints for me I think tonight. Really struggling to pick with any level of certainty here but I think the Saints run is going to continue, and they’ll win by more than a TD.’

Week Thirteen Trivia

‘As we close in on the end of this season every point matters and Gee currently has a slender 2 point lead in the Trivia stakes.

The main Picks league is even closer and having knocked lumps out of each other in Week 12 no one is more surprised than myself that it’s still tight at the top.

Week 12 Trivia asked a very simple question – At which college did Peyton Manning play?

It’s a question that more people will know the answer to, but perhaps why that snippet of information had stuck. Well the answer is:

University of Tennessee Volunteers from 1994 to 1997

Even I’m not so picky as to insist on the Volunteers bit but for the first time since week 8 both Dan and Gee scored a point.

Week 13 is a little more random but did appear as a fact in QI. I’ve checked and it holds up so:

What rule change did Oakland’s receiver Lester Hayes instigate?

I’m intrigued as to the answers I get on this one.’

What Happens Next?

28 Wednesday Nov 2018

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Things managed to get worse for the Bengals this weekend and I will be writing about that, but I thought I would zip round the league first before letting rip to give those who don’t wish to indulge my reaction to the problems besetting the orange and black something to read.

There weren’t as many as in the previous week, but the NFL still managed to have four games separated by a field goal and a couple of upsets.

I’m going to start with a game I didn’t see, but on Monday night the Houston Texans won their eighth straight game to remain two games clear at the top of the AFC South. I suspect they are possibly the division leader I have written about the least this season and I will need to watch them again soon to get a better idea of what the transformation looks like. The obvious thing might be to take a look at their top five defence by DVOA that has JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney fit and combining for eighteen and a half sacks, but they are also getting enough out of an offence ranked twenty-first by DVOA to win and with them finding a way to run the ball and win with Deshaun Watson back at quarterback that side of the ball might be the more interesting study. Still, they have definitely established themselves as team worthy of more attention and I hope this paragraph doesn’t jinx them!

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a somewhat less successful weekend, losing on the road to the Denver Broncos. It feels like at least once a season the Steelers lose a game on the road they shouldn’t and as much as I admire what Mike Tomlin achieves in Pittsburgh this could once again lose them a shot of a playoff bye and home advantage later in the playoffs. They have a big game next week against the LA Chargers who got themselves back on track with a big win over the Arizona Cardinals and this meeting of AFC teams looks like it will be one of the highlights of the week thirteen.

With the Rams and Chiefs on their bye week, the New Orleans Saints were the only one of the top tier teams (according to me) in action in week twelve and ran out convincing winners in the evening Thanksgiving game against the Atlanta Falcon who will have to regroup in the offseason having been broken by injury. The New England Patriots got a healthy enough to win over the New York Jets but even though Rob Gronkowski returned to the field, he does not seem to be the same dominant tight end of previous years. Of their five remaining opponents the Patriots only have to face two with winning records and I will be very interested to see how they do hosting the Vikings next week and when they travel to Pittsburgh in week fifteen. I should also mention that the Patriots are yet to play the Dolphins in Miami where the Pats have lost in four out of the last five visits.

The Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions comfortably despite not being able to start Mitchell Trubisky and that leaves us with the NFC East as the only division that I haven’t discussed the division leaders. With Washington falling to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and the Eagles scraping a win over the New York Giants on Sunday things remain tight in the east. The Cowboys have managed to get themselves equal to Washington but have the daunting task of hosting the Saints this Thursday night, whilst Washington and Philadelphia have the first of their two games against each other this weekend. Given the injuries to both Washington and Philadelphia most people seem to think the momentum is with the Cowboys right now and it certainly seems like the contest is going to go down to the wire in terms of winning the division. It is also worth noting that whilst the arguments about value are still valid, the Cowboys trade for Amari Cooper does appear to be making a difference and his breakaway touchdowns was pretty much the difference between them and Washington on Thursday.

This is your two game warning before I dig into the mess that is the Bengals right now.

The two games on Sunday I enjoyed watching were the Seattle Seahawks winning out over the Carolina Panthers despite the Panthers gaining well over double the amount of yards on the ground and seemingly moving the ball with more ease. However, costly failures in the red zone and some interesting decisions to go for it on fourth down led the Panthers to their third straight loss. I don’t know if a division game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the right situation to try to turn things round, but they really need to get a win thus week if they want to stay in the race for a wildcard place.

Finally, whilst looking good for stretches of the Packers’ game against the Minnesota Vikings, it appears that Aaron Rodgers might be mortal after all. I would suggest the problem is more that the offence he has been given doesn’t seem to have evolved under Mike McCarthy in recent years despite the developments round the league, but after a good start that saw the Packers go 14-7 up at the start of the second quarter, they failed to score again until near the end of the fourth quarter and ultimately fell 17-24. At 4-6-1 the playoffs are not completely out of reach but they would have to run the table and hope to get lucky. The big sticking point in the final five games that jumps out on the schedule is their visit to Chicago in week fifteen, especially as the Packers have gone 0-6 on the road.

Okay, so here we go. Final warning.

So the Bengals season is hanging by a thread and only the most optimistic of super fans can even contemplate things turning around. Not only did the Bengals lose the battle of Ohio to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, but they lost Andy Dalton to thumb injury for the rest of the season. Now as it happens Jeff Driskell is pretty good as backup quarterbacks go and it’s not as if the Bengals were competing for the Super Bowl, but there are real problems with this team which stretch further than the injury list. The offence still ranks sixteenth despite the injuries that have hampered this side of the ball but the defence have been woeful all season. The Bengals have already fired one defensive co-ordinator and there are now questions yet again about whether it is time for Marvin Lewis to step aside. Now I do think it is time for this to happen, in fact it might have been time a couple of seasons ago but I understand the reluctance to do so and it does make me nervous. Marvin Lewis took a perennially underachieving team and made them respectable, frequently one of the most talented rosters in the league who went to the playoffs five seasons in a row between 2011-15 but this looks to be the third season that the Bengals miss out and something has to change. However, as much I would like to see an inventive offensive minded coach take over the franchise as that seems to be what is required to win with the current set of rules, replacing Lewis worries me because of the tendency for Mike Brown to hire people he knows and the rumours that Hue Jackson is a potential candidate that surfaced over the weekend.

Yes Hue Jackson, who has a 11-44-1 overall record and who just went 3-36-1 with the Cleveland Browns. Now I’m not necessarily saying he’s a bad coach, he did great things with the Bengals’ offence as a coordinator before he left for Cleveland, but I’ve seen nothing that makes me think that as a head coach he could turn things round. Look at how the Browns have been doing in recent weeks. Not to mention the shots that Baker Mayfield has been taking both on the field and after the game in the press. There is still a lot of talent on this roster, and it might just need a new voice to turn things round or it could need more of a re-build but who knows if the Bengals infrastructure above the head coach can facilitate such efforts. I have no idea what happens next and that’s what makes me nervous. So much of an NFL franchise’s success lies in getting the behind the scenes right to get the right coach with the roster at the right moment, and yes with the right quarterback. It appears that as Bengals fans, we live in interesting times….

Anyway, I shall leave you with a comment from Dan as we were discussing quarterbacks after his misguided shot at the red rifle yesterday.

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2018 Week Twelve Picks

25 Sunday Nov 2018

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I went two for one in the Thanksgiving games, largely because Amari Cooper scored two breakaway touchdowns for the Cowboys, demonstrating his speed and some poor tackling in Washington’s secondary. So now we roll into the rest of the week twelve games and an enormous game for the Bengals but before all of that, there is this week’s trivia question where somehow I hold a two-point lead over Dan.

‘Moving onto Week 12 this should not prove too taxing and I’d like to know for which college did Peyton Manning play?’

Now, this was one of those questions where when I read it the answer was on the tip of my tongue, but I couldn’t quite remember it. However, leaving it for a couple of days allowed the answer to bubble up to the surface and I believe he played for Tennessee.

‘Having said the other week that I don’t pay any attention to the college game, I think this is one of those bits of information I’ve heard somewhere before and it’s just stuck with me for some reason. I think Payton Manning played college football for the University of Tennessee.’

Jaguars @ Bills (+3.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars leave Florida to head up to a cold Buffalo where the Bills are coming off a bye and look to have Josh Allen coming back from his elbow injury. This does not look to be a great spot for a team with a six game losing streak and if I’m getting this many points with a warm weather team heading into the cold who haven’t been very good I’m going to grab them. I’m not saying the Jaguars can’t win this game, but I kind of fancy the Bills to keep this one within a field goal at list.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Browns @ Bengals (-3.5)

This is a big game for the beleaguered Cincinnati Bengals who managed to keep the game close with the Ravens last week and will be desperate to get back to winning ways against the franchise that carries the name of their founder Paul Brown. The Cleveland Browns are coming off a bye and a win against the Atlanta Falcons and their top defence could very well give a banged up Bengals’ offence problems, particularly with left tackle Cordy Glenn having back issues and Myles Garrett coming to town. It also looks like AJ Green is unlikely to play and suddenly things are looking tricky. I think the Bengals could very well win it, but this feels like a tight game to me and the extra half point has me picking the other way. I would love to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Raiders @ Ravens (-10.5)

The Oakland Raiders got their second win of the season in Arizona last week, but now they have to come all the way across the country to face a Baltimore team that got a spark last week with Lamar Jackson’s first start at quarterback and who is starting again this week due to Joe Flaco’s hip injury. I don’t know if the Ravens are planning another twenty plus carries for their quarterback this week, (Jackson ran the ball twenty-six times against the Bengals last week) but if the Ravens can do enough on offence to complement their tough defence they could make a late push for the playoffs and will at least cause a lot of teams difficulties. I fancy them to win this game at home, but the line does give me a little pause. There is a gulf between these two teams in terms of DVOA ranking and with the Raiders facing a second road game and travelling across the country I don’t expect them to win and I can’t quite bring myself to pick them either.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

Both teams are coming off a bye and the New York Jets were last seen losing by thirty-one points to the Bills, whilst the Patriots lost by twenty-four points to the Titans. This makes this line a tricky one as I know which team I back to bounce back, and the Patriots largely have a history of beating big lines in games they are favoured for but this feels like a lot of points. However, given this is Bill Belichick coming off a bye I’m going to back the Patriots to get right and that time hasn’t finally caught up with Tom Brady, although it has to happen at some point.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Giants @ Eagles (-6.5)

The formula is all wrong for Philadelphia Eagles this season and they have so many injuries in the secondary that I think this line is too big. I don’t expect a repeat of what happened against the Saints last week, but the Eagles have lost three straight home games and welcome a New York Giants team who have won two straight. They have enough options in the passing game to make life difficult for a patched up secondary and with Saquon Barkley hitting holes with power and picking up the hard yards last week, I think the Giants could keep this one within a touchdown. I could be horribly wrong about this.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

49ers @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

This is a difficult game to pick thanks to the indifferent form of the San Francisco 49ers who are coming across the country to play a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who have moved the ball on offence but really struggled to do much else, including win after a decent start. I really want to stay away from this game, but in the end I’ll plump for the home team and hope, but it very much feels like a shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Panthers (-3.5)

I am really looking forward to this game as it should tell us a lot about a Carolina Panthers team who have wobbled in recent weeks. They face a Seattle Seahawks team who have re-found their formula of defence and running the ball and come into this game with extra rest having beaten the Packers on Thursday night in week eleven. I think this will be a close game and with that extra half point I am going to grab the Seahawks to stay within a field goal but the game could easily go either way.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Cardinals @ Chargers (-12.5)

The LA Chargers dropped a clanger against the Denver Broncos last week but should have more than enough to deal with a woeful Arizona Cardinals team who are really struggling. However, this is a very big line for a team whose home support isn’t that great and it really makes me wonder. However, I think the Chargers will have a point to prove and with the league’s fourth best offence by DVOA going against the thirty-first defence I’m going to worriedly swing for the fences with this one.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Steelers @ Broncos (+3.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers got their win last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars but it wasn’t exactly pretty and we should remember that Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t look like the same quarterback on the road. The Steelers should have more than enough to deal with the Broncos in Denver as their defence is just not the same as recent years and their offence hasn’t improved that much. The DVOA stats really like Denver though, as in really likes them with an overall ranking of ninth but I have more faith in the Steelers. It is tempting to grab the points, particularly with that important half point over a field goal and in the end, that’s what I’m going to go with but I’m not exactly confident.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Dolphins @ Colts (-9.5)

The Miami Dolphins are 1-4 on the road this year, but are expected to get Ryan Tannehill back from injury this week, although whether the oft-injured quarterback can make a big difference is somewhat up in the air given how beat up the Dolphins are generally. I have just watched the coaching tape of the Colts’ offence putting up thirty-eight points on the Titans’ defence and despite these two teams having the same 5-5 record, they feel like they are on very different trajectories. The question is though, can the Dolphins make it a tough game and though I’m not ruling it out, the form is so different and the Colts have a quarterback so I’m going to go with the large line again, which likely could make Dan happy if I’m wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Packers @ Vikings (-3.5)

This is a huge game in the NFC North, with the Packers ill able to afford another loss and the Vikings needing the win to stay in contact with the Bears who currently have a three game lead thanks to their Thanksgiving win over the Lions. There seems to be something not quite right with the Vikings this year, both on defence and offence whilst the Packers have been up and down as well. The Vikings have had a real home advantage since moving to their current stadium, but I hate picking against Aaron Rodgers and the extra half point really makes me nervous. In fact it makes me nervous enough that I’m going to pick the Packers, but it would not surprise me if I’m wrong again.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Titans @ Texans (-6.5)

The question of this game is are the Houston Texans a touchdown better than the Tennessee Titans and I’m really not sure I know the answer to that one. The Titans have been so up and down this season and are coming off a big loss to the Colts having beaten the Patriots soundly in week ten, whilst the Texans have won seven straight games to be 7-3. There is a solid gap between these two teams by DVOA ranking and with a defence that seems to have finally got JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney fit at the same time I’m leaning Texans to win but I’m not sure by this much. In the end I don’t feel strongly enough to lay this many points so I’ll nervously grab the Titans.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

AAF: Colts Offence

25 Sunday Nov 2018

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For this week’s amateur adventure in films I have looked at the Indianapolis Colts’ offence against the Tennessee Titans, taking my inspiration from the Ringer’s NFL Podcast and Robert May’s enthusiasm for what was going on in Indianapolis.

There was a lot of flux for the Colts this offseason, not least of which was that they thought their new head coach would be the Patriots’ Josh McDaniels but after he had a change of heart and decided to stay in New England after the Super Bowl loss they has to find someone else. They decided to grab the winning offensive co-ordinator from the Super Bowls in Frank Reich whose main job was to revive the form of Andrew Luck, a quarterback who early in career talked of liking to get hit but who after playing though injury was not even throwing NFL footballs at the start of training camp and hadn’t taken a competitive snap in over a year.

It may have taken a few weeks to get going, and there was a lot of noise about Luck being pulled out of the game for a Hail Mary attempts as his backup Jacoby Brissett had the stronger arm, but it certainly seems to be flowing now. So how does it look?

The Colts played predominantly with 11 personnel but with good mix 12 and 13 personnel mixed in and one of my favourite was a grouping of 21 personnel with rookie running back Nyheim Hines lining up at receiver and Marlon Mack staying as the running back.

The Colts would usually stick with a single back in the backfield but would motion other players back there as well as mixing in some motion, in particular with the tight ends. Speaking of which, one of my favourite performances in this game was from Jack Doyle. I’m sure the focus of most discussions about the Colt’s offence would centre of Andrew Luck or TY Hilton and the big name in the tight end room would perhaps be Eric Ebron, but I loved the versatility of Doyle who was the every down tight end who moved round the formation, both blocking and as running routes whilst Ebron came in as the move receiving tight end.

However, focussing on Andrew Luck it seems the offence is really suiting him and part of that is that he’s getting the ball out quickly. Gone are the days of him holding onto the ball and trying to tough things out to make a play, the ball is coming out quickly with a good balance of run and play action keeping the defence honest. This is not a run first teams but a modern balanced offence, and in the second quarter the Colts scored almost a perfect play action touchdown where the fake handoff drew in the Titans’ single high safety and TY Hilton flew past his corner to score a sixty-eight yard touchdown. This is something that is possible when you have sprinkled enough run plays into the mix from the same formations that you are passing from and although the Colts only just made one hundred yards on twenty-eight carries in the run game, they established it enough to make the play fakes work. There were also some really good timing throws throughout this game to a number of different receivers although star of the show in terms of receiving was undoubtedly TY Hilton who caught all nine of the balls thrown his way and finished with one hundred and fifty-five yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Finally, whilst I was not focussing on the offensive line, the athleticism of Ryan Kelly caught my eye as it is not often that you see a centre pull as frequently in the run game as Kelly did and the whole line had a good day as they did not give up a sack and Luck only had to move a couple of times to avoid the rush even if a couple of throws were affected by pressure.

This was obviously a good game to see the Colts offence running smoothly, they managed a total of three hundred and ninety-seven yards, five touchdowns and gave up no sacks. They ran the ball well enough for the play action fake to be legitimate in the defence’s mind and structurally they were clever enough to elicit comment as I watched the game. It’s not that uncommon for me to talk aloud to the tape (I’m sure my partner loves this habit…) but it is kind of a test on offence and between their motion, route combinations and fakes they got enough separation for Andrew luck to complete twenty-three of his twenty-nine passes. The Colts have won their last four games and after a tough start to the season seem to be heading in the right direction with a large part of that being the position they are putting Andrew Luck in to succeed. It took me by surprise that Luck is already twenty-nine but as he heads into his prime it looks like the Colts are finally giving him the team to win consistently and they will have a large amount of cap room in the offseason. Don’t look now, but with the focus this season seemingly on the young quarterbacks coming up under Tom Brady and Drew Brees, Andrew Luck is reminding us all that he’s still there and should not be overlooked.

Competition Thursday: 2018 Thanksgiving

22 Thursday Nov 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

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So happy Thanksgiving to all those marking the day, and welcome to the start of week twelve and another Competition Thursday!

We saw some changes in the picks competition as I scrambled to the top of the league and Dan closed the gap to me and his dad. I need to sit down and do a proper tot-up in the trivia competition, although I feel like regardless of who gets the most points out of Dan and I, the real winner is Dan’s dad given how often he’s stumped us. Also, I’m hoping to mock up some of the logos in the colours of the Vikings and Dolphins to show what could be at stake.

We have to get this post up early today as games start this afternoon so with no further ado, let’s get started with this year’s Thanksgiving games.

Gee:     Week 11   6-7              Overall   81-80
Dan:     Week 11   7-6              Overall   77-84

Bears @ Lions (+4.5)

The first game of the day sees the Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears and I know how I want to pick this game but I do have a slight hesitation. The Bears proved something to me last week with their win against the Vikings and whilst I think they are a tier below the Saints and Rams in the NFC, they have the third best record in the conference and deserve to go into this divisional game as favourites. The Detroit Lions are coming off a narrow win against the Panthers that was helped by Graham Gano missing a field goal and an extra point that must have contributed to the decision of Ron Riviera to go for the failed two point conversion at the end of the game that handed the win to Detroit. The Lions will want to play tough in this biggest of national games, but the Bears beat them by ten two weeks ago and so here is my pause because this is just enough points to make me hesitate. However, in the end I’m going to lay the points and trust the Bears. Don’t let me down now.

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

Washington @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have won two straight and suddenly stand an improved chance in the NFC East thanks to the injury to Alex Smith. In fact Washington has been beset by injuries all this season but have managed to keep finding ways to muddy up games and keep themselves not just competitive but atop their division. However, I can see why people have started to favour the Cowboys to make a run but only one of their wins has been by more than a touchdown this season and so that really does make me pause in this one. The unknowns in Washington make me nervous, and on a short week it helps that Colt McCoy has been there four years but I’m really not sure if this line is too big, particularly as Washington currently rank better than Dallas by DVOA. This is a heated rivalry shown in prime time with the nation watching and given the familiarity of both teams, I’m going to back the underdogs and pick Washington keep it closer than eight points.

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Washington

Falcons @ Saints (-13.5)

The Atlanta Falcons had a minor surge a few weeks ago, but they are still very injured and having lost to the Browns and Cowboys back to back it is hard to see them turning things round in New Orleans. This is a very big line but the Saints have scored ninety-nine points in their last two games, and in the next one back they beat the Rams by ten and so I’m going to swing for the fences and say Drew Brees and crew keep rolling, particularly as I don’t see head coach Sean Payton letting up on a divisional opponent in prime time.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Week Twelve Trivia

‘As we near the third trimester of the season the Trivia competition has once again got the pundits thinking – and that is the whole point really.

OK, for week 11 I pitched a curved ball and asked how many teams do NOT have a Professional Cheerleading squad.

Of the 32 teams is it A, 0 – 5;             B, 6 – 10;          C, 11 – 15;       or D,  16+

Using multiple choice was not to suggest that they were struggling, but just that it is another format which could add interest.

Gee made some excellent logic and had he added The Bills and The Lions he would have had a clean sweep of the 7 teams who don’t.

Dan was partially right when he spotted a potential wording issue by my asking for a Professional squad. Well that was not me being tricksy but to cover the Packers who use a Collegiate squad, not professional, when needed.

So the answer is B which covers the 7 teams.

Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers,  and the Green Bay Packers (with their Collegiate squad)

Moving onto Week 12 this should not prove too taxing and I’d like to know for which college did Peyton Manning play?

Easy, right? Well maybe Week 13 might prove a more sticky task.’

The NFL Spectacle

21 Wednesday Nov 2018

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The NFL got what it wanted on Monday night with a spectacular game that lived up to the hype. With a game that ends 51-54 you can understand all the talk being of the Rams win and the offences involved (to be fair there was over a thousand yards), but there are a couple of other things I wanted to mention from this game. Firstly, for all the talk of the yards gained and quarterbacks, perhaps the best player on the field Monday was Aaron Donald got two sack fumbles and caused enough pressure with his teammates that Patrick Mahomes threw three interceptions and fumbled the ball away twice. In fact, if I was the Chiefs I would not be overly worried by this loss as despite five turnovers and one hundred and thirty-five yards of penalties they only lost by a field goal. On a neutral field they will still fancy their chances but both teams could do with learning the lessons of the late game as they each manufactured chunk gains and neither seemed to worry about running out the clock and this could very well have lost either team the game. I’m not advocating for the old fashioned three yards and a cloud of dust runs, but a little manipulation of the clock could have definitely given one team an advantage.

So if Monday was a feast of offence that also featured multiple defensive touchdowns, the rest of the week showed that as much as anything, competitive games is what drives interest in the NFL. In fact the winning margin for eleven out of the thirteen week eleven games was five points or closer.

Other notable achievements included Lamar Jackson carrying the ball twenty-seven (yes 27) times against the Cincinnati Bengals in the Ravens’ 24-21 win. A double blow as the Ravens managed to beat the Bengals but not quite by enough for me to get my pick right. The Ravens only had Jackson throw nineteen times and the number of carries he had cannot be sustainable, but I will be interested to see how they develop the offence for him over the next few weeks. I do wonder how much of this game plan was about attacking the Bengals’ porous run defence and their inexperienced linebackers. The injury situation doesn’t look to be turning round quickly for the Bengals, but they were at least competitive in this game and if they can get AJ Green back they could have some success in a schedule that looks like it might lighten up a little in the coming weeks even if there are still visits to Pittsburgh and the LA Chargers left.

I picked the Colts to win but did not expect them to blow out the Tennessee Titans 38-10 and having heard Robert Mays wax lyrical about their offence and what they have done for Andrew Luck this season I will be taking a look at that for my coaching tape study this week. The other blow out this week was the New Orleans Saints rolling over the Philadelphia Eagles whose injury problems at corner as reached critical in terms of numbers, but the worst injury news is Washington’s who lost Alex Smith who broke both bones in his right leg in thirty-three years to the day since Joe Theismann had the same injury. With the advances in training and medicine it likely won’t be the career ender that it was for Theismann but Washington’s hopes for the season now rest on Colt McCoy. The Houston Texans managed to win out in this game though to maintain their two game lead on the Colts and Titans whilst stretching their win streak to seven.

The Pittsburgh Steelers got their revenge win in Jacksonville against a Jaguars team who have not got the memo about how modern offences should be run. They called a run play forty-one times with Leonard Fournette having twenty-eight carries and not making one hundred yards. Clearly they didn’t want to put the game in Blake Bortles’ hands but they might not of had to if they had selected say Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson who were both available in the 2017 draft when they picked Fournette. This is not a direct comparison of players so much as a comment on taking a running back that early and using them in this old fashioned way. You can still feature a running back, look at Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara or Kareem Hunt but they need space to work and the days of the workhorse back running up the middle have been well and truly superseded.

A team who are very much running such a modern offence are the Chicago Bears, who are getting enough production from a developing Mitchell Trubisky and a defence that ranks first in the league by DVOA and this got them a big divisional win against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend. However, one of the other NFC team of the tier below the Saints and Rams lost whilst going for two at the end of the game as the Carolina Panthers stumbled against the Detroit Lions. This only furthers my confusion at the Lions’ set of impressive teams beaten, but also asks the question of whether the last games the Panthers have lost is a blip or the start of a trend. As usual, only time will tell but with the Seattle Seahawks getting their win on Thursday night over the Green Bay Packers the Seahawks could still have a shot at the playoffs whilst the Packers have probably lost too many games already unless Aaron Rodgers really is a dragon.

The New York Giants recorded their second straight win, this time over the flailing Tampa Bay Buccaneers who look like they need a new plan in the offseason. It is too late for the Giants to pull themselves into the race for the NFC East even with Washinton’s problems at quarterback, and likely the same for the Eagles but with another win the Dallas Cowboys could get themselves back into the conversation, particularly as they host Washington this Thanksgiving. The Cowboys seem to have worked out how to feature Ezekiele Elliott more on offence and with a defence that I’m surprised is only ranked twenty-first by DVOA but has been good enough, they at least stand a chance of winning their remaining division games and getting themselves into the mix.

The LA Chargers run of only losing to really good teams fell to the Denver Broncos this week, which is the kind of divisional games that can cause such results but they hope this won’t be a return to the getting in their own way Chargers that started last season. The Oakland Raiders however, got their second win of the season against the Arizona Cardinals in a reminder that if you like the points, you should really take the points even if the team have been bad.

The teams at the bottom of the league all seem to be taking games off each other whilst the cream of the NFL really seems to be rising and it seems like the season is slipping away for all three of us at The Wrong Football. There’s still time for one of our teams to build their way into a winning record but I would be surprised if they all did and I’m not sure what it will take for the Bengals to win a playoff game. Maybe it really is the time for a fresh start in Cincinnati, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves as there’s plenty of football left to watch this season and a lot of it has been really good. Let’s hope we can keep this momentum.