Tag Archives: NFL

Seasons on Life-Support

27 Tuesday Nov 2018

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

We really are at the business end of the season now, and believe it or not the next time I post we’ll be in December – a scary thought! Thursday night will see the start of Week 13, meaning that most teams have just 5 games to either seal their position in the play-offs or at the very least finish the season on a high. But that is going to be a little easier for some than others…

Sunday started for me with a trip to the Rugby – I’m not a huge fan but my wife is a Leicester Tigers season ticket holder so I went to keep her company. And while there I did the hilarious thing that I always do… I referred to Tries as Touchdowns and time periods in Quarters rather than halves. I still don’t understand why when they kick the PAT they get 2 points rather than 1! So as you can imagine, I wasn’t particularly in her good books.

I’m not sure I’ve ever mentioned this on the blog, but my wife is also a Cincinnati Bengals fan, so just imagine how little she must have enjoyed Sunday night’s pretty one-sided affair between the Bengals and the Browns, given that I’d already given her the raging hump! To their credit, the Browns looked good on Sunday night, but you do get the feeling that the Bengals season is very much on life-support, if it’s not already called it a day. This, largely, is due to the impact that the loss of Average Andy Dalton [How many times has Ryan Tannehill got your Dolphins to the playoff? – Ed.] is going to have on the team.

Luckily the Dolphins, while not able to get the W on Sunday against the Colts, have just got their Quarterback back under Centre, so I feel a little more optimistic than the Black and Orange half of this blog, but not by a huge amount. Miami played well in one of the later games on Sunday. In fact, I seriously think if it wasn’t for some poor play-calling in the last couple of drives, we would now have a winning record rather than a losing one. I do feel that for the first time this year, some of the blame for this weekend’s loss has to sit with Adam Gase and his coaching team. In the ‘fins final drive, with just a couple of minutes on the clock and the game tied at 24, we were backed up behind our own 15 yard line. Instead of really going for it, we played a couple of short inside runs, a throw for no gain, and I think there was even a loss of 5 yards through a Penalty. This unfortunately lead to us having to Punt it back to the Colts, giving them the opportunity to drive down the field and win the game with the last kick, which the did successfully.

It’s a frustrating one, because I actually thought other than that we looked pretty good. But with 13:36 remaining in the game, we were winning by 10 points. For me, we need to be a lot smarter with play calling in that situation. Tactically, surely we should have either tried to run down the clock and played for overtime, or go for it and try to win! The very last thing we should have done would be to turn the ball over. As it happened, we did just that, giving them the ball with 2:38 left on the clock, all of their Timeouts, and none of ours, and made it far too easy for one of the best (if not THE best) kickers ever to have graced the league to win them the game.

There was a bit of a scary moment too – once again with too many receiving targets already sat in the medical room, Danny Amendola took a serious knock which looked like it may have ended his game, but luckily he managed to shake it off and return to the field.

Oh and we scored on our first drive, and got our first Offensive touchdowns since Week 8!!

Elsewhere, the Vikings got the win over the Packers, and the Buffalo Bills got themselves a Win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The latter of those two games has seen the announcement of some mid-season changes in Florida. Nathaniel Hackett has been relieved of Offensive Coordinator duties (a move which WR Dede Westbrook has said that the Offence need to take responsibility for), Blake Bortles has been announced for the bench next week in favour of Cody Kessler, and Running Back Leonard Fournette has been suspended for a game for Unsportsmanlike Behaviour and Unneccesary Roughness calls on Sunday night which saw him ejected from the game. Not a good time to be a Jags fan.

For the first time in 6 or 7 weeks now, the Rams aren’t the favourites for the Super Bowl in terms of betting odds – that position has been taken by the New Orleans Saints who to be fair are looking fantastic after another win this week over the Falcons. All in all, this makes the betting chart look like this:

So what’s coming up this week? Well, Rams/Lions will be a good game. The Rams are just being The Rams having lost just one game so far, and the Lions 4-7 record really doesn’t reflect how well they’ve played to this point this season. And the Vikings/Patriots match will be an entertaining affair too, I think – both good Offensive teams which should make for a good game.

And of course, I’ll score 6 in the Picks – because… that’s what I do at the minute.

Which games are you looking forward to? How are you feeling about your team going into the back end of the season? Drop me a line on twitter and lets have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

2018 Week Twelve Picks

25 Sunday Nov 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

I went two for one in the Thanksgiving games, largely because Amari Cooper scored two breakaway touchdowns for the Cowboys, demonstrating his speed and some poor tackling in Washington’s secondary. So now we roll into the rest of the week twelve games and an enormous game for the Bengals but before all of that, there is this week’s trivia question where somehow I hold a two-point lead over Dan.

‘Moving onto Week 12 this should not prove too taxing and I’d like to know for which college did Peyton Manning play?’

Now, this was one of those questions where when I read it the answer was on the tip of my tongue, but I couldn’t quite remember it. However, leaving it for a couple of days allowed the answer to bubble up to the surface and I believe he played for Tennessee.

‘Having said the other week that I don’t pay any attention to the college game, I think this is one of those bits of information I’ve heard somewhere before and it’s just stuck with me for some reason. I think Payton Manning played college football for the University of Tennessee.’

Jaguars @ Bills (+3.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars leave Florida to head up to a cold Buffalo where the Bills are coming off a bye and look to have Josh Allen coming back from his elbow injury. This does not look to be a great spot for a team with a six game losing streak and if I’m getting this many points with a warm weather team heading into the cold who haven’t been very good I’m going to grab them. I’m not saying the Jaguars can’t win this game, but I kind of fancy the Bills to keep this one within a field goal at list.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Browns @ Bengals (-3.5)

This is a big game for the beleaguered Cincinnati Bengals who managed to keep the game close with the Ravens last week and will be desperate to get back to winning ways against the franchise that carries the name of their founder Paul Brown. The Cleveland Browns are coming off a bye and a win against the Atlanta Falcons and their top defence could very well give a banged up Bengals’ offence problems, particularly with left tackle Cordy Glenn having back issues and Myles Garrett coming to town. It also looks like AJ Green is unlikely to play and suddenly things are looking tricky. I think the Bengals could very well win it, but this feels like a tight game to me and the extra half point has me picking the other way. I would love to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Raiders @ Ravens (-10.5)

The Oakland Raiders got their second win of the season in Arizona last week, but now they have to come all the way across the country to face a Baltimore team that got a spark last week with Lamar Jackson’s first start at quarterback and who is starting again this week due to Joe Flaco’s hip injury. I don’t know if the Ravens are planning another twenty plus carries for their quarterback this week, (Jackson ran the ball twenty-six times against the Bengals last week) but if the Ravens can do enough on offence to complement their tough defence they could make a late push for the playoffs and will at least cause a lot of teams difficulties. I fancy them to win this game at home, but the line does give me a little pause. There is a gulf between these two teams in terms of DVOA ranking and with the Raiders facing a second road game and travelling across the country I don’t expect them to win and I can’t quite bring myself to pick them either.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

Both teams are coming off a bye and the New York Jets were last seen losing by thirty-one points to the Bills, whilst the Patriots lost by twenty-four points to the Titans. This makes this line a tricky one as I know which team I back to bounce back, and the Patriots largely have a history of beating big lines in games they are favoured for but this feels like a lot of points. However, given this is Bill Belichick coming off a bye I’m going to back the Patriots to get right and that time hasn’t finally caught up with Tom Brady, although it has to happen at some point.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Giants @ Eagles (-6.5)

The formula is all wrong for Philadelphia Eagles this season and they have so many injuries in the secondary that I think this line is too big. I don’t expect a repeat of what happened against the Saints last week, but the Eagles have lost three straight home games and welcome a New York Giants team who have won two straight. They have enough options in the passing game to make life difficult for a patched up secondary and with Saquon Barkley hitting holes with power and picking up the hard yards last week, I think the Giants could keep this one within a touchdown. I could be horribly wrong about this.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

49ers @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

This is a difficult game to pick thanks to the indifferent form of the San Francisco 49ers who are coming across the country to play a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who have moved the ball on offence but really struggled to do much else, including win after a decent start. I really want to stay away from this game, but in the end I’ll plump for the home team and hope, but it very much feels like a shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Panthers (-3.5)

I am really looking forward to this game as it should tell us a lot about a Carolina Panthers team who have wobbled in recent weeks. They face a Seattle Seahawks team who have re-found their formula of defence and running the ball and come into this game with extra rest having beaten the Packers on Thursday night in week eleven. I think this will be a close game and with that extra half point I am going to grab the Seahawks to stay within a field goal but the game could easily go either way.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Cardinals @ Chargers (-12.5)

The LA Chargers dropped a clanger against the Denver Broncos last week but should have more than enough to deal with a woeful Arizona Cardinals team who are really struggling. However, this is a very big line for a team whose home support isn’t that great and it really makes me wonder. However, I think the Chargers will have a point to prove and with the league’s fourth best offence by DVOA going against the thirty-first defence I’m going to worriedly swing for the fences with this one.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Steelers @ Broncos (+3.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers got their win last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars but it wasn’t exactly pretty and we should remember that Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t look like the same quarterback on the road. The Steelers should have more than enough to deal with the Broncos in Denver as their defence is just not the same as recent years and their offence hasn’t improved that much. The DVOA stats really like Denver though, as in really likes them with an overall ranking of ninth but I have more faith in the Steelers. It is tempting to grab the points, particularly with that important half point over a field goal and in the end, that’s what I’m going to go with but I’m not exactly confident.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Dolphins @ Colts (-9.5)

The Miami Dolphins are 1-4 on the road this year, but are expected to get Ryan Tannehill back from injury this week, although whether the oft-injured quarterback can make a big difference is somewhat up in the air given how beat up the Dolphins are generally. I have just watched the coaching tape of the Colts’ offence putting up thirty-eight points on the Titans’ defence and despite these two teams having the same 5-5 record, they feel like they are on very different trajectories. The question is though, can the Dolphins make it a tough game and though I’m not ruling it out, the form is so different and the Colts have a quarterback so I’m going to go with the large line again, which likely could make Dan happy if I’m wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Packers @ Vikings (-3.5)

This is a huge game in the NFC North, with the Packers ill able to afford another loss and the Vikings needing the win to stay in contact with the Bears who currently have a three game lead thanks to their Thanksgiving win over the Lions. There seems to be something not quite right with the Vikings this year, both on defence and offence whilst the Packers have been up and down as well. The Vikings have had a real home advantage since moving to their current stadium, but I hate picking against Aaron Rodgers and the extra half point really makes me nervous. In fact it makes me nervous enough that I’m going to pick the Packers, but it would not surprise me if I’m wrong again.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Titans @ Texans (-6.5)

The question of this game is are the Houston Texans a touchdown better than the Tennessee Titans and I’m really not sure I know the answer to that one. The Titans have been so up and down this season and are coming off a big loss to the Colts having beaten the Patriots soundly in week ten, whilst the Texans have won seven straight games to be 7-3. There is a solid gap between these two teams by DVOA ranking and with a defence that seems to have finally got JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney fit at the same time I’m leaning Texans to win but I’m not sure by this much. In the end I don’t feel strongly enough to lay this many points so I’ll nervously grab the Titans.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

AAF: Colts Offence

25 Sunday Nov 2018

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

For this week’s amateur adventure in films I have looked at the Indianapolis Colts’ offence against the Tennessee Titans, taking my inspiration from the Ringer’s NFL Podcast and Robert May’s enthusiasm for what was going on in Indianapolis.

There was a lot of flux for the Colts this offseason, not least of which was that they thought their new head coach would be the Patriots’ Josh McDaniels but after he had a change of heart and decided to stay in New England after the Super Bowl loss they has to find someone else. They decided to grab the winning offensive co-ordinator from the Super Bowls in Frank Reich whose main job was to revive the form of Andrew Luck, a quarterback who early in career talked of liking to get hit but who after playing though injury was not even throwing NFL footballs at the start of training camp and hadn’t taken a competitive snap in over a year.

It may have taken a few weeks to get going, and there was a lot of noise about Luck being pulled out of the game for a Hail Mary attempts as his backup Jacoby Brissett had the stronger arm, but it certainly seems to be flowing now. So how does it look?

The Colts played predominantly with 11 personnel but with good mix 12 and 13 personnel mixed in and one of my favourite was a grouping of 21 personnel with rookie running back Nyheim Hines lining up at receiver and Marlon Mack staying as the running back.

The Colts would usually stick with a single back in the backfield but would motion other players back there as well as mixing in some motion, in particular with the tight ends. Speaking of which, one of my favourite performances in this game was from Jack Doyle. I’m sure the focus of most discussions about the Colt’s offence would centre of Andrew Luck or TY Hilton and the big name in the tight end room would perhaps be Eric Ebron, but I loved the versatility of Doyle who was the every down tight end who moved round the formation, both blocking and as running routes whilst Ebron came in as the move receiving tight end.

However, focussing on Andrew Luck it seems the offence is really suiting him and part of that is that he’s getting the ball out quickly. Gone are the days of him holding onto the ball and trying to tough things out to make a play, the ball is coming out quickly with a good balance of run and play action keeping the defence honest. This is not a run first teams but a modern balanced offence, and in the second quarter the Colts scored almost a perfect play action touchdown where the fake handoff drew in the Titans’ single high safety and TY Hilton flew past his corner to score a sixty-eight yard touchdown. This is something that is possible when you have sprinkled enough run plays into the mix from the same formations that you are passing from and although the Colts only just made one hundred yards on twenty-eight carries in the run game, they established it enough to make the play fakes work. There were also some really good timing throws throughout this game to a number of different receivers although star of the show in terms of receiving was undoubtedly TY Hilton who caught all nine of the balls thrown his way and finished with one hundred and fifty-five yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Finally, whilst I was not focussing on the offensive line, the athleticism of Ryan Kelly caught my eye as it is not often that you see a centre pull as frequently in the run game as Kelly did and the whole line had a good day as they did not give up a sack and Luck only had to move a couple of times to avoid the rush even if a couple of throws were affected by pressure.

This was obviously a good game to see the Colts offence running smoothly, they managed a total of three hundred and ninety-seven yards, five touchdowns and gave up no sacks. They ran the ball well enough for the play action fake to be legitimate in the defence’s mind and structurally they were clever enough to elicit comment as I watched the game. It’s not that uncommon for me to talk aloud to the tape (I’m sure my partner loves this habit…) but it is kind of a test on offence and between their motion, route combinations and fakes they got enough separation for Andrew luck to complete twenty-three of his twenty-nine passes. The Colts have won their last four games and after a tough start to the season seem to be heading in the right direction with a large part of that being the position they are putting Andrew Luck in to succeed. It took me by surprise that Luck is already twenty-nine but as he heads into his prime it looks like the Colts are finally giving him the team to win consistently and they will have a large amount of cap room in the offseason. Don’t look now, but with the focus this season seemingly on the young quarterbacks coming up under Tom Brady and Drew Brees, Andrew Luck is reminding us all that he’s still there and should not be overlooked.

Competition Thursday: 2018 Thanksgiving

22 Thursday Nov 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, ,

So happy Thanksgiving to all those marking the day, and welcome to the start of week twelve and another Competition Thursday!

We saw some changes in the picks competition as I scrambled to the top of the league and Dan closed the gap to me and his dad. I need to sit down and do a proper tot-up in the trivia competition, although I feel like regardless of who gets the most points out of Dan and I, the real winner is Dan’s dad given how often he’s stumped us. Also, I’m hoping to mock up some of the logos in the colours of the Vikings and Dolphins to show what could be at stake.

We have to get this post up early today as games start this afternoon so with no further ado, let’s get started with this year’s Thanksgiving games.

Gee:     Week 11   6-7              Overall   81-80
Dan:     Week 11   7-6              Overall   77-84

Bears @ Lions (+4.5)

The first game of the day sees the Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears and I know how I want to pick this game but I do have a slight hesitation. The Bears proved something to me last week with their win against the Vikings and whilst I think they are a tier below the Saints and Rams in the NFC, they have the third best record in the conference and deserve to go into this divisional game as favourites. The Detroit Lions are coming off a narrow win against the Panthers that was helped by Graham Gano missing a field goal and an extra point that must have contributed to the decision of Ron Riviera to go for the failed two point conversion at the end of the game that handed the win to Detroit. The Lions will want to play tough in this biggest of national games, but the Bears beat them by ten two weeks ago and so here is my pause because this is just enough points to make me hesitate. However, in the end I’m going to lay the points and trust the Bears. Don’t let me down now.

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

Washington @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have won two straight and suddenly stand an improved chance in the NFC East thanks to the injury to Alex Smith. In fact Washington has been beset by injuries all this season but have managed to keep finding ways to muddy up games and keep themselves not just competitive but atop their division. However, I can see why people have started to favour the Cowboys to make a run but only one of their wins has been by more than a touchdown this season and so that really does make me pause in this one. The unknowns in Washington make me nervous, and on a short week it helps that Colt McCoy has been there four years but I’m really not sure if this line is too big, particularly as Washington currently rank better than Dallas by DVOA. This is a heated rivalry shown in prime time with the nation watching and given the familiarity of both teams, I’m going to back the underdogs and pick Washington keep it closer than eight points.

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Washington

Falcons @ Saints (-13.5)

The Atlanta Falcons had a minor surge a few weeks ago, but they are still very injured and having lost to the Browns and Cowboys back to back it is hard to see them turning things round in New Orleans. This is a very big line but the Saints have scored ninety-nine points in their last two games, and in the next one back they beat the Rams by ten and so I’m going to swing for the fences and say Drew Brees and crew keep rolling, particularly as I don’t see head coach Sean Payton letting up on a divisional opponent in prime time.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Week Twelve Trivia

‘As we near the third trimester of the season the Trivia competition has once again got the pundits thinking – and that is the whole point really.

OK, for week 11 I pitched a curved ball and asked how many teams do NOT have a Professional Cheerleading squad.

Of the 32 teams is it A, 0 – 5;             B, 6 – 10;          C, 11 – 15;       or D,  16+

Using multiple choice was not to suggest that they were struggling, but just that it is another format which could add interest.

Gee made some excellent logic and had he added The Bills and The Lions he would have had a clean sweep of the 7 teams who don’t.

Dan was partially right when he spotted a potential wording issue by my asking for a Professional squad. Well that was not me being tricksy but to cover the Packers who use a Collegiate squad, not professional, when needed.

So the answer is B which covers the 7 teams.

Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers,  and the Green Bay Packers (with their Collegiate squad)

Moving onto Week 12 this should not prove too taxing and I’d like to know for which college did Peyton Manning play?

Easy, right? Well maybe Week 13 might prove a more sticky task.’

The NFL Spectacle

21 Wednesday Nov 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The NFL got what it wanted on Monday night with a spectacular game that lived up to the hype. With a game that ends 51-54 you can understand all the talk being of the Rams win and the offences involved (to be fair there was over a thousand yards), but there are a couple of other things I wanted to mention from this game. Firstly, for all the talk of the yards gained and quarterbacks, perhaps the best player on the field Monday was Aaron Donald got two sack fumbles and caused enough pressure with his teammates that Patrick Mahomes threw three interceptions and fumbled the ball away twice. In fact, if I was the Chiefs I would not be overly worried by this loss as despite five turnovers and one hundred and thirty-five yards of penalties they only lost by a field goal. On a neutral field they will still fancy their chances but both teams could do with learning the lessons of the late game as they each manufactured chunk gains and neither seemed to worry about running out the clock and this could very well have lost either team the game. I’m not advocating for the old fashioned three yards and a cloud of dust runs, but a little manipulation of the clock could have definitely given one team an advantage.

So if Monday was a feast of offence that also featured multiple defensive touchdowns, the rest of the week showed that as much as anything, competitive games is what drives interest in the NFL. In fact the winning margin for eleven out of the thirteen week eleven games was five points or closer.

Other notable achievements included Lamar Jackson carrying the ball twenty-seven (yes 27) times against the Cincinnati Bengals in the Ravens’ 24-21 win. A double blow as the Ravens managed to beat the Bengals but not quite by enough for me to get my pick right. The Ravens only had Jackson throw nineteen times and the number of carries he had cannot be sustainable, but I will be interested to see how they develop the offence for him over the next few weeks. I do wonder how much of this game plan was about attacking the Bengals’ porous run defence and their inexperienced linebackers. The injury situation doesn’t look to be turning round quickly for the Bengals, but they were at least competitive in this game and if they can get AJ Green back they could have some success in a schedule that looks like it might lighten up a little in the coming weeks even if there are still visits to Pittsburgh and the LA Chargers left.

I picked the Colts to win but did not expect them to blow out the Tennessee Titans 38-10 and having heard Robert Mays wax lyrical about their offence and what they have done for Andrew Luck this season I will be taking a look at that for my coaching tape study this week. The other blow out this week was the New Orleans Saints rolling over the Philadelphia Eagles whose injury problems at corner as reached critical in terms of numbers, but the worst injury news is Washington’s who lost Alex Smith who broke both bones in his right leg in thirty-three years to the day since Joe Theismann had the same injury. With the advances in training and medicine it likely won’t be the career ender that it was for Theismann but Washington’s hopes for the season now rest on Colt McCoy. The Houston Texans managed to win out in this game though to maintain their two game lead on the Colts and Titans whilst stretching their win streak to seven.

The Pittsburgh Steelers got their revenge win in Jacksonville against a Jaguars team who have not got the memo about how modern offences should be run. They called a run play forty-one times with Leonard Fournette having twenty-eight carries and not making one hundred yards. Clearly they didn’t want to put the game in Blake Bortles’ hands but they might not of had to if they had selected say Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson who were both available in the 2017 draft when they picked Fournette. This is not a direct comparison of players so much as a comment on taking a running back that early and using them in this old fashioned way. You can still feature a running back, look at Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara or Kareem Hunt but they need space to work and the days of the workhorse back running up the middle have been well and truly superseded.

A team who are very much running such a modern offence are the Chicago Bears, who are getting enough production from a developing Mitchell Trubisky and a defence that ranks first in the league by DVOA and this got them a big divisional win against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend. However, one of the other NFC team of the tier below the Saints and Rams lost whilst going for two at the end of the game as the Carolina Panthers stumbled against the Detroit Lions. This only furthers my confusion at the Lions’ set of impressive teams beaten, but also asks the question of whether the last games the Panthers have lost is a blip or the start of a trend. As usual, only time will tell but with the Seattle Seahawks getting their win on Thursday night over the Green Bay Packers the Seahawks could still have a shot at the playoffs whilst the Packers have probably lost too many games already unless Aaron Rodgers really is a dragon.

The New York Giants recorded their second straight win, this time over the flailing Tampa Bay Buccaneers who look like they need a new plan in the offseason. It is too late for the Giants to pull themselves into the race for the NFC East even with Washinton’s problems at quarterback, and likely the same for the Eagles but with another win the Dallas Cowboys could get themselves back into the conversation, particularly as they host Washington this Thanksgiving. The Cowboys seem to have worked out how to feature Ezekiele Elliott more on offence and with a defence that I’m surprised is only ranked twenty-first by DVOA but has been good enough, they at least stand a chance of winning their remaining division games and getting themselves into the mix.

The LA Chargers run of only losing to really good teams fell to the Denver Broncos this week, which is the kind of divisional games that can cause such results but they hope this won’t be a return to the getting in their own way Chargers that started last season. The Oakland Raiders however, got their second win of the season against the Arizona Cardinals in a reminder that if you like the points, you should really take the points even if the team have been bad.

The teams at the bottom of the league all seem to be taking games off each other whilst the cream of the NFL really seems to be rising and it seems like the season is slipping away for all three of us at The Wrong Football. There’s still time for one of our teams to build their way into a winning record but I would be surprised if they all did and I’m not sure what it will take for the Bengals to win a playoff game. Maybe it really is the time for a fresh start in Cincinnati, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves as there’s plenty of football left to watch this season and a lot of it has been really good. Let’s hope we can keep this momentum.

Oh, was there Football on this week?

20 Tuesday Nov 2018

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , ,

Week 11 is now in the books (I miss saying that on the Podcast!) and before it even started, people were calling it the best week of the year so far, which I must say was a little offensive to a fan of a team who were on their Bye!

On a serious note though, it was an absolute cracker, and has put the cat amongst the pigeons again when it comes to the Pick’em competition! Considering he was leading the league going into the week, a score of just 4 points for my dad means he’s dropped to second and all three of us have really closed up going into week 12. Gee’s decision to put the colours of the blog on the line was an inspired choice! I hope he’s ready for an Aqua and Orange website (Fins up!). Lets just not mention Dad’s Trivia quiz!

So, to the action on the pitch and the thing which was most incredible was the fact that 11 of the 13 games this week finished with 5 or less points separating the teams. The big game of the week was on Monday night, in the relocated Mexico game, which saw the Chiefs face the Rams, both of whom went into the week with 9-1 records. A slight amount of shine was taken off it in the move back to LA, and even more in that the Seahawks beating the Packers on Thursday meant that a Rams win wouldn’t quite make them the first team to clinch a playoff berth, but the game itself didn’t disappoint.

While in truth, the Rams spent almost the entire game in the bigger half of the scoreboard, it was still an extremely exciting contest, and a late charge from the Chiefs very nearly saw them take the win. It finished 51-54, making it the highest scoring Monday Night game in history, and if you’ve not watched it yet, I’d seriously suggest going back and checking it out, even if you can just get access to the highlights, because lets be honest, there were a lot of them!

It was especially good if you’re a fan of the passing game. The game saw just shy of 900 passing yards, with either Tyreek Hill (215 yards), Travis Kelce (127 yards) or Brandin Cooks (107 yards) on the receiving end of nearly half of them. And there were even 8 sacks to be seen for the more defensively minded of you… I’m looking at you, Gee! [How you not mention Aaron Donald? He was immense in this game – Ed.] Oh, and it’s made my bet chart look like this:

Elsewhere, the Saints continued their absolute dominance of the NFC with a thumping victory by 48 points to 7 over the defending Super Bowl champions, and the Colts (of all people!) put on a footballing masterclass in their game over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday night.

All of these close results are showing themselves in some very close divisions as we go into the final stretch too. The NFC East is often a division which runs right into the final weeks, and this year looks to be no exception with 3 wins between the whole division. It’s at this time of year where we start looking at who might find themselves continuing their season into next year, and there are 5 teams all on 5-5, making a play for the final wildcard position in the AFC. I’m pleased to say that both my Dolphins and Gee’s Bengals are two of those teams. Looking at the fixtures coming up over the next 6 weeks, I’d rather be supporting the team in Black and Orange…

Current Conference Standings, courtesy of pro-football-reference.com

We’re treated to a number of early games this week with the Thanksgiving matches taking place on Thursday, which I know Gee will be happy about as he’ll be taking his annual Thanksgiving day off work, I’ve no doubt! [Yeup, although I am starting the day at the dentist… – Ed.} And I’m so ready for a Dolphins game again… I must be a glutton for punishment, I know.

So, who do you think is going to be playing well into the new year? Anyone who hasn’t been there for a while? And at the other end, who’ll end up propping up the league? Get in touch on Twitter and lets have a chat!

Until next time!

@TWFDan

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week 11

15 Thursday Nov 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

I have managed to pull a game back on Dan’s Dad, but he is still leading the way in the picks competition. However, I might just have had an idea for a prize for the victor. The logo colours for The Wrong Football have always been based on the Bengals colours, but we could add a little spice and from next year have them in the colour of last year’s regular season picks champion’s favourite team, be they Dan or his Dad which would give us the teal and orange of the Dolphins or purple and yellow of the Vikings. Now there are some stakes for you, but for now let’s get to the matter of tonight’s game given that neither Dan or I got the trivia question right last week.

Gee:     Week 10   7-7              Overall   75-73
Dan:     Week 10   6-8              Overall   70-78

Packers @ Seahawks (-2.5)

Looking at the standing it feels like there is more at stake than just another Thursday night game as both these teams will be thinking that they could make a run at the playoffs but neither can afford to lose. The front office of the Packers seems to be looking further to the future with the moves they made at the trade deadline but Aaron Rodgers certainly won’t want to wait as he turns thirty-five next month. The Packers have not been known for the kind of run game balance they showed on offence last week, but their near two hundred yards on the ground last week was in fact bettered by the Seahawks, who ran for over two hundred and fifty in their close loss to the Rams.

These teams are within a percentage point in the overall DVOA ranking and we know that Aaron Rodgers can win anywhere but so can Russell Wilson. In fact I am finding it incredibly hard to pick between these two teams. Given the extra home advantage I believe the Seahawks should get and the fact the line is set at -2.5 I feel there is a sliver of value in picking the Seahawks at home on a Thursday night so I’m going to grab that, but honestly, this game as much as any could be a coin toss.

I just hope the football lives up to my expectations of what it could be.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Week Eleven Trivia

‘Week 10  11/11               

This week I asked about stadium altitudes and after the overtly obvious 3 feet high Saints Superdome who is 2nd and what ‘altitude’ are they? The guys have certainly had their grey cells working and I have enjoyed the logic behind their effort. Firstly, well done to both for identifying that the lowest altitude is likely to be coastal, just as the highest would normally be found in the centre of the continental land mass.

Right, to the answers, Tampa actually sits at the dizzy heights of 54m so, sorry Nul Point there Gee. Dan, however, spotted that there may be 2 at equal second place, but they weren’t West coast I’m afraid. So the 2 answers are the Giants and Jets at the Met Life in East Rutherford NJ along with the Jaguars EverBank Field each at 7 feet. Bragging rights are marginally Dan’s but neither should ever fly a plane!

Week 11

For week 11 I’m offering  a bit of a curved ball. if that’s not too muffled a metaphor. I want to know now many of the 32 teams do NOT have a Professional Cheerleading squad.

Is it      A, 0 – 5;           B, 6 – 10;         C, 11 – 15;      or D, 16+ 

Recover that Fumble   ’

Super Saints go Ballistic, Bengals are Atrocious

14 Wednesday Nov 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Nothing much really happened in week ten of the NFL so maybe we should all just prepare ourselves for the upcoming Monday night matchup between the LA Rams and the Kansas City Chiefs? Not buying that… okay I guess there’s only one place to start for me so let’s do this.

The Cincinnati Bengals didn’t just get beat, they had a fifty burger put up on them by a rampant New Orleans Saints team. I told you I was scared about this game! There wasn’t just one thing but there never is in a game like this, it was a combination of factors that produced an absolute thumping. However, for about sixteen game minutes things were okay and looked vaguely competitive. Yes the Saints marched down the field and scored on their opening drive but the Bengals were able to start with a touchdown drive of their own and even pulled a Saints move with their backup quarterback Jeff Dreskel taking a snap with Andy Dalton lining up as a receiver. However, whilst the Saints continued the pattern that would dominate the game, i.e. moving the ball without any trouble and scoring on every drive bar the last on, the Bengals were unable to keep their offence moving consistently. There were flashes from Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd but the offence sputtered and were not able to match the Saints’ machine like efficiency. The Bengals having to punt on their second and third drives was one thing, but then when they did move the ball Andy Dalton threw an interception on a play that snapped with twenty-four seconds left in the half that was returned seventy-eight yards and just like that the Saints had time to squeeze in another touchdown to go into the half 35-7 up.

You could argue the second half was better as the Bengals only gave up sixteen further points and scored another touchdown with Jeff Driskel in the game after Dalton had been pulled, but clearly not. The Bengals have a lot of injuries in the back seven of the defence, but there has also been a lot of talk about grey areas in the new defence scheme and clearly there is something to it as defensive coordinator Teryl Austin has been fired and Marvin Lewis is doing something he has always been reluctant to do, and that’s call the defence himself. How this is going to work I don’t know, but just to throw extra murk into the waters, or possibly improve the juggling of game day, Hue Jackson has been rehired – this time as special assistant to the head coach. The players have been saying it’s not time to panic as their destiny is still in their own hands, but if ten is the magic number of wins that nearly always gets you into the playoffs, then they would have to go 5-2 the rest of the way including two games against the Browns and visits to the Chargers, Steelers and next week the Ravens. I keep hearing that you know how good your team is by how they travel and the Bengals are 2-2 on the road but have had two bad losses already and three divisional road games coming up. I’m not calling them done just yet but I think it’s more likely than not that things don’t get much better.

Oh yeah, and the Saints right now are the best team in the league.

Can I stop now?

Good.

So, the fluid nature of teams and the small sample size continue to confuse those of us picking game but it does entertain us. The New England Patriots lost to a Tennessee Titans team who have had two solid wins after the bye and whilst it is too early to hit the panic button if you are a Patriots fan, they are outside of the top ten in DVOA in the second half of the season for the first time since 2005 with Tom Brady as the quarterback and since 2008 when Matt Cassel led the team (this has been taken from Aaron Schatz’s weekly update that you can read here). In the absence of time to watch coaching tape this week (life just keeps getting in the way) I may well try to just watch this game to get a better idea of how it happened.

Other notable results were the Buffalo Bills scoring forty-one points after Matt Barkley made his first start in two years and his first for the Bills, which has led to the release of poor Nathan Peterman and who knows if he will get another shot with a team. The Pittsburgh Steelers put up fifty points against the Carolina Panthers on Thursday night whilst both the Chiefs and Rams won their games ahead of the matchup. Interestingly both teams has asked to play the Broncos in Denver before their Mexico city game but the league was smart enough to deny both teams and in a twist of fate with fears about the safety of the pitch in the Azteca stadium the game has been shifted back to LA. The Chicago Bears ran out easy winners against the Detroit Lions but the real test comes next week when they face the Minnesota Vikings coming off their bye.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers managed to put up five hundred yards of offence and only come away with three points, which just should not be possible and is the kind of thing I deserve for picking them. Washington continues their improbable run atop the NFC East but their coaching staff should get credit for finding a way to win despite the raft of offensive line injuries. Things got even better for them when the Dallas Cowboys went into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles meaning that Washington are now two games ahead at the top of the division. However, not only did the Cowboys defence continue to look pretty good and have moved away from their reliance on Sean Lee, but there were signs of their offence evolving. It’s not as if they are suddenly the Saints, Rams, or Chiefs, but with more motion before the snap, the addition of Amari Cooper, and Ezekiel Elliott catching some balls out of the backfield to complement his one hundred and fifty yards on the ground there is a chance the Cowboys could make a nuisance of themselves.

The other contender for game I would still like to see is the Jacksonville Jaguars continuing their losing streak, this week to an Indianapolis Colts team who have dragged themselves to 4-5 record with Andrew Luck continuing to shake off the worries about his return to the game. We are a long way from him being subbed out for a Hail Mary play.

Finally, the Cleveland Browns separated themselves from the 49ers and the Giants with their third win of the season that also likely scuppered the Falcons unlikely recent playoff surge and the Oakland Raiders are officially the worst team in the league thanks to the Giants win over the 49ers on Monday night that leaves the Raiders as the only single win team. I’m sure the schedulers were thrilled about how these two once mighty franchises were faring going into this week’s prime time game, but at least it was competitive. Right now I’d take that from the Bengals…

Never has a team needed a Bye week so badly!

13 Tuesday Nov 2018

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

We’re 10 weeks into a pretty good season now, and everyone’s left with just 6 or 7 games remaining. Bye weeks are often a bit of a distraction from football (even a pain in the arse if you’re running a fantasy football team!) but let me tell you – never have a team needed a Bye week more than the Dolphins do this coming weekend. Even last year when our Bye Week was effectively in week one due to the hurricane in Tampa, we didn’t look as beat up as we do now at any point during the season.

This week saw the Dolphins take a trip up-north to the frozen tundra that is Green Bay (ok, it’s not that bad, I know) and struggled to warm up all game. We went into the game battered and bruised, but with a surprising winning record, and unfortunately returned back to Miami even more battered, but without that winning record, so… not a great week if I’m honest!

As we know, Brock Osweiler has been under centre since Week 6 due to Ryan Tannehill’s injured shoulder, and he definitely didn’t have a good one this week. He was sacked 6 times for a loss of 50 yards throughout the game. Now, that wasn’t all his fault – the O-line was patchy at best, but what doesn’t help is his huge tell – when he’s under pressure, Brock always steps out to his right. Seriously, go back and watch the tape – he does it every single time. So the Packers knew that all they had to do was put some pressure on him down the middle, and then sweep him up after he rolled out to his right.

He’s also quickly running out of targets too. He was already without Albert Wilson (WR) and MarQueis Gray (TE) going into this one, but during the game, both Jakeem Grant and DeVante Parker left the field in a bad way with Leg and Shoulder problems respectively. Adding to that a shoulder issue for Kenyan Drake at Running Back, and it’s difficult to see where the points are going to come from. What I will say, is that Frank Gore is more than picking up the slack at the RB position, adding another 90 yards to his season tally on Sunday. [I have to add that at age 35 I find Gore’s productivity this season a feat that should be more celebrated – Ed.] And it’s not just on Offence we’re struggling – I commented on Sunday that I felt particularly bad for Bobby McCain (CB) who looks like he could have picked up a bad concussion. So, I think you can see why we badly need a week to heal up!

Strangely, we actually moved the ball fairly well. It was just the final product that we struggled with. I lost count of the number of times we got to within 10-15 yards [According to ESPN zero out of three red zone visits], but couldn’t finish it off. This lead to us only picking up 4 field goals during the game.

Here I go again, not giving our opponents the credit they deserved. The Packers looked good – it took them a little while to get going, but when they did, their game really came together. Aaron Jones (RB) was devastating, finding some huge holes in our Defence, including one especially long run at 67 yards. They fully deserved their win, and I don’t think anyone who watched that game would think anything otherwise.

What was really nice was connecting with an old school friend (and Cheesehead) Andy, now living in Australia while watching the game. He was surprised at how well the Green Bay Defence did, having had what he described as a ‘truly awful’ season to this point. The NFL really is a great connector!

I feel I’ve suitably rambled on about our game now, so lets have a look what happened elsewhere.

You’ll know by now that I have something of a fascination with the Kicking game. Well, Chicago kicker Cody Parker had a difficult week this week. Not only did he miss 2 extra points (something almost unthinkable a few seasons ago!), but also a couple of Field Goals, and all four hit the goalpost, which he couldn’t do again if he tried. I’ve said before that I feel for kickers as it doesn’t take many misses to find themselves on the chopping block, so I can’t imagine it’s a particularly nice week for him in training this week!

The Rams are marching on, with another win, making the Betting chart look like this:

They’re really making it look more and more like there’s a 2 horse race in the NFC. I caught the majority of the Bengals game this week, and while I will leave the majority of the coverage to Gee, in short, the Saints absolutely took them apart. It was a difficult watch to be honest, so I know how much Gee will have struggled with it.

And elsewhere in the pick’em competition, I’m 5 points away from Gee, and 6 from my Dad (I can’t even call it beginners luck for him this year!) which is annoying me. I feel like it’s too big a gap to catch at this late stage, but I’m sure there are some surprises still to come which may help me along.

But that’s it for me this week. Speaking of surprises, my Twitter topic this week will be surprise packages of the season – who’s not having the season that you expected them to have this year, good or bad? Drop me a line on Twitter and lets have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

AAF: Steelers Offensive Line

11 Sunday Nov 2018

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , ,

So after repeatedly hearing about how good the Steelers offensive line is I thought I would take a look at them for this week’s amateur adventures in film.

The first thing I’ll start with is talking about the difficulty in looking at this as there is no grouping that stresses the amateur in the series of posts I do on film like the offensive line. You can tell something about how good a player by their balance, and if they get beat but the nuances are something that I’m going to have to research more in the offseason as it just isn’t coming naturally. However, what you can see is that this group is used to working with each other and more than once I spotted defensive linemen being picked up on stunts as they came around the line and I don’t know how the player knew to do it.

So to start with the basics, the Steelers played the majority of the game I watched against the Baltimore Ravens in 11 personnel and from the shotgun formation. Left guard Ramon Foster, a giant of a man amongst large men is obviously the player tasked with checking on when Ben Roethlisberger is ready and giving Maurkice Puncey the nod to snap the ball.

On passing plays the line generally leaves it’s tackles Alejandro Villanueva and Marcus Gilbert to block on their own whilst the guards and centre double team defensive tackles and handles other defenders coming up the middle. That said the Steelers will often keep a tight end or running back in to help block and it was not unusual for them to keep both in to help out. Ben Roethlisberger made his name extending plays and being difficult to bring down and he’s still not exactly an easy sack, but with the receiving options available to him and his experience he gets the ball out pretty quick these days and it took a combination of coverage and a Ravens defender beating a single matchup to get pressure, which happened occasionally but mostly the ball was gone or Roethlisberger would move. The tackles look balanced and as I said in the intro this is a unit that flows well in unison.

The predominant use of the shotgun formation means the Steelers don’t exactly run the ball with power but they are still effective, and you will see the line mostly using David DeCastro and Maurkice Pouncey as pulling lineman to open up holes, although they will pull Foster every now and again but he does not have the athleticism of Pouncey or DeCastro and so he doesn’t find it as easy to get to the second level of the defence.

The offence of the Steelers is clearly playing well with James Conner capably standing in for Le’Veon Bell at running back and if the offensive line only ranks eleventh overall according to football outsiders, it is the first in the league for pass blocking. A lot of credit for this should also go to Mike Munchak who has really solidified this unit since joining the Steelers and now I have run out of things to say about the offensive line. As I say, I will be studying more in the offseason.

I will however leave you with this point, every year the Steelers seem to have some kind of wobble early on but round into being competitive and we have just seen them blow out a good Carolina Panthers team on Monday night football. I’m sure that Mike Tomlin would like to have got to more Super Bowls but I like him as a coach and at 6-2 they stand atop of the AFC North and I’m pretty sure no one is looking forward to playing them. I’m certainly dreading the Bengals’ week seventeen visit. This sounds a lot like the formula that we see the Seahawks and Patriots praised for and so I shall make sure the Steelers get put in the same list as they are doing it again.