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AAF: Khalil Mack

06 Sunday Oct 2019

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film, Thursday Night Football

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For the first time this year I have managed to get through a complete game of coaching tape so I present to you for your pleasure the inaugural 2019 Amateur Adventures in Film post where I decided to cheer myself up after the fourth Bengals loss this season by taking a look at Khalil Mack playing the Minnesota Vikings, just in time for his revenge game against the team that drafted him and then traded him away.

The first thing that really struck me about this game is going to sound odd, as watching Mack the thing that I was most reminded of was a previous AAF post where I looked at the Cleveland Browns left tackle Joe Thomas. I know it sounds odd to compare a defensive edge player to a left tackle, but the thing that struck me about this game was not Mack’s explosive destruction to the Vikings offence so much as the control and balance he played with throughout the game. That is what brought that particular Joe Thomas game to mind, Mack was playing inside the system, setting the edge, and yes doing things that looked spectacular when the game called for it but the Bears defence is such a good unit that Mack was playing in a controlled way that seemed different to the way say a JJ Watt or Aaron Donald play when they’re wrecking a game. It is also different for an edge player as if you don’t play with discipline then you open passing/running lanes for the defence, where as for Watt/Donald their role in the defence is to cause that chaos from the interior of the line.

That said, there were plenty of moments where Mack went around the offensive tackle with speed or used speed to power to cut in and pressure Kirk Cousins. However, whilst there were longer plays left on the field by Cousins, one of the things about him getting the ball out of his hands quickly to players running shorter routes was he did limit the Bears ability to get to him, yet he still got sacked six times. Probably the biggest of Mack’s plays was at the start of the second half where he dipped under left tackle Riley Reiff’s attempted block and got a free run to Cousins and came swiping in for the strip sack. It is on plays like that when Mack can turn a game for you. In fact, the only time the Vikings moved the ball consistently was on their touchdown drive where they caught the Bears with Mack off the field and took advantage as they were running no huddle for most of the drive. It was also the only time they managed to keep the Bears’ defence off balance and they still relied on under passes to Dalvin Cook as well as Stefon Diggs making plays from the edge.

Throughout the game Mack seemed to move between the left and right edge, rushing from a three-point stance or as an outside linebacker and the Bears mixed up their fronts a lot when not playing in their base 3-4 defence. I came away very impressed, but more at the control and precise application of power. It may not have been the most explosive tape I have watched but it was a lot of fun to look at, and I have a feeling that Mack will be out to do a lot more today against his old team in London. I think those heading to the first of the London games are in the treat – I’m a little bit jealous to tell you the truth and I really don’t understand why you would trade a player of this talent away. Sometimes you have to say to hell with the value you are being offered, this is a cornerstone player, and to my mind Khalil Mack is absolutely one of those players.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Five

03 Thursday Oct 2019

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It was another tough week of picking that saw me just about stay above fifty percent but only by the skin of my teeth.

Gee:                 Week 4   6-9                Overall   32-31
Dan:                 Week 4   6-9                Overall   29-34
Dan’s Dad:         Week 4  5-10             Overall   28-35

Rams @ Seahawks (-1.5)

This is the second tasty looking Thursday night game in a row as the faltering LA Rams head up to Seattle to take on the Seahawks who got back on track with a win last week. This is a contest that pits the eleventh and twelfth ranked teams by DVOA against each other and it feels like it will be a close game. The Seahawks defence doesn’t quite look the same this year, but their offence is top ten, and they can at least rely on Russell Wilson even if it does feel they could utilise his skills more. Meanwhile the Rams lost to the Buccaneers last week with their defence giving up fifty-five points and the offence hasn’t looked quite right all year. For all the talk of there not being a snap limit for Todd Gurley, his actual carries and targets are not the same and Jared Goff has looked distinctly underwhelming in recent weeks. I’m not saying it is time to panic, but with the changes in their offensive line it feels like a different Rams team this season and with them on the road in Seattle on a short week that’s enough for me to cautiously pick the Seahawks. Of course, I’m 1-3 for Thursday night picks this season which did lead to this exchange with Dan, so you can’t say I didn’t warn him:

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Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Week  Trivia

‘The Power of 4.
It’s odd how things seem to coalesce around a point and Week 4 became, unfortunately for me, just that.
I’ll gloss over yet another abysmal picks performance which left me 4 off the pace but stoically I recall being that far back before only to recover.

The question I set was:
In how many Super Bowls did the Buffalo Bills appear during the 1990s?

There was only one winner this week and, coincidentally for Week 4, Gee identified that the answer was also 4
I will admit to running an interference play in specifying the date range but I know how these two are prone to overthinking things so a little misdirection can only add a little spice.

Starting with the first Superbowl to be decided by a single point (20:19) in 1990 the Bills not only played in 4 but these were consecutively from 1990 – 1993.
2 points, therefore, to Gee which levels the scores up at 4 each after this week.

The theme question also failed to trouble the umpires although I thought that someone might have spotted the pattern by now.

For Week 5 I’m looking at the Carolina Panthers but I’m resisting asking about the Bromance that developed between them and Leicester City developed in 2016 when City were winning the Premier League. So here goes.
How many rushing yards did DeShaun Foster run in the 2002 regular season?

I’ll allow 50 yards either way and there are 2 points for a correct answer’

The Unknowable NFL

02 Wednesday Oct 2019

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All bar the two teams on a bye last week have sailed past the quarter pole of the season and this Sunday sees the first of the four game London series getting played so we can definitely say that the 2019 season is in full swing, but as so often the case it feels like we know less for certain than ever about how the teams are going. Let’s see if I can explains some of that as I take you through my week of the NFL.

What I Saw

Week four started with one of the more entertaining games we have seen this year with he Philadelphia Eagles running out 34-27 winner in Green Bay against the Packers. The game started out as I expected with the Packers defence looking strong and the packers taking an early touchdown lead but in the second quarter three Eagles’ touchdowns saw them take a lead that they would hold until late in the third quarter and retake in the fourth. A strong offensive line performance enabled the Eagles to rush for one hundred and seventy-six yards and not give up any sacks whilst their defence held the Packers to under four yards per carry until the Packers virtually gave up on running that ball. What the Packers were able to do was throw the ball and it was Aaron Rodgers who kept them in the game (despite losing tackle Bryan Bulaga early) thanks to a four hundred and twenty-two yard passing day. The offence may not be clicking yet for the Packers but I think that Rodgers and Matt LaFleur will find a way and the league had better watch out when they do given how the Packers defence has played. The Eagles meanwhile really needed that win to stay in the NFC East race now that the New York Giants have found two wins in the opening four games. They had some players come back from injury but it was good to see the coaching staff get the win despite the players they were still missing.

The first of the Sunday games that I watched was between the Houston Texans and the Carolina Panthers who through a defensive game that saw only two touchdowns but nine sacks as the Panthers ran out 16-10 winners on the road. This win was built on the Panthers’ derfence’s ability to contain the Texans offence, particularly in the passing game where Deshaun Watson only threw for one hundred and sixty yards whilst getting sacked six times and harried a lot more. There are still problems with the offensive line (which might be worth a coaching tape look at some point) and Watson has a tendency to hold onto the ball trying to make a play. You can hear him talk about the coverage in this clip that got a lot of people talking about his honesty so it’s worth having a look. Meanwhile the Panthers have got their second straight win since Kyle Allen has replace the injured Cam Newton, but whilst he was efficient enough to get the win he has to work on his ball security/pocket awareness as you can’t expect to fumble away the ball three times and expect to keep winning games. The defence played well, but in this era of multiple offences and running back by committee special mention has to go to Christian McCaffery who played all sixty-eight of the Panthers’ offensive snaps, amassing ninety-three yards on the ground with the teams only touchdown as well as eighty-six yards catching the ball. The Panthers look to be holding things together whilst they wait for Newton to get properly healthy, but they have an awful lot resting on the body of McCaffery at the moment and I just hope he can keep carrying the load until Newton comes back. Meanwhile the Texans are one of the four AFC South teams that are 2-2, which looks again to be a division that will beat each other up all year and then one or two teams will get hot at the end of the season and make the playoffs. The long term concern is the roster construction given the draft picks they have traded away going into the season as it does not appear that they are as close to challenging for the Super Bowl as the trades would suggest they think they are.

The second Sunday game I watched was another low scoring affair (if I wanted offence the Buccaneers @ Rams was the way to go) as the Dallas Cowboy lost a close one on the road 12-10 to the New Orleans Saints. This was a game that only saw one touchdown and that was for the losing Cowboys as both defences dominated the day. For all their early season success the Cowboys struggled to move the ball, particularly on the ground where they were only able to get forty-five yards as the Saints defence new exactly where to be for each run. The Cowboys were not able to get enough done through the air to win the game with Presscott throwing for two hundred and twenty-three yards and an interception. If the Cowboys didn’t quite look like themselves on the road, the Saints look to have a really good defence that is allowing them to win games without Drew Brees. Teddy Bridgewater threw for under two hundred yards in this game with a long of only twenty yards but the offence managed to rush for over one hundred yards thanks in large part to the power and balance of Alvin Kamara. The Saints will be hoping to keep themselves in the hunt until Drew Brees gets back, but I don’t know if they can keep relying on their defence to play like they did in this game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have to hope that this was a blip road loss, but the offence did not look like it was flowing properly and that’s something to keep an eye on.

I don’t want to write about the final game of the week, but given that the Cincinnati Bengals were playing in the Monday night game against the Pittsburgh Steelers I have no good reason not to cover their miserable 3-27 loss on the road. The problems are perhaps obvious and to an extent predictable as the Bengals kept losing offensive line starters before the season had even started and four games into the season they are struggling to make room in the running game or protect Andy Dalton when passing the ball. The other worry I have is at linebacker and in particular at the edges of the defence and this came to pass as the Steelers used Jaylen Samuels to take direct snaps and touch passes to attach the edges. It’s hard to tell how much of a turnaround this is for the Steelers given how Bengals have played this season but it’s a step. Meanwhile, the Bengals are facing a huge game this Sunday as in only their second home game of the season they welcome another winless team, the Arizona Cardinals and if they don’t win that one then this thing could get really ugly. I’m probably clinging to tightly the fact that two of the games were really competitive and the Bengals have face three tough road games so far but that comes to an end this week.

What I Heard

There has been continuing conversations about the new wave of quarterbacks and backups as rookies Gardiner Minshew II and Daniel Jones got their second wins as starters, Kyle Allen got a second win with the Panthers whilst Chase Daniels came off the bench to help the Bears beat the Vikings in a performance that has drawn comments about how Daniels was able to at least get the ball out where it was supposed to and accurately on the underneath throws.

The Vikings offence has been another source of discussion given it’s focus on running the ball despite Kirk Cousins being in the second year of an $84 million guaranteed contract. Normally you might question the offensive coordinator’s but given his track record with OCs this really sits with head coach Mike Zimmer who is always talking about running the ball, but it doesn’t make sense to be so focussed on that when you have arguably one of the best receiving duos in the league. There’s been plenty of criticism of Kirk Cousins, but to my mind that feels a lot like the criticism of Andy Dalton and no these are not the elite of the elite, but they are good enough to win if you put the right team around them. I agree with the commentators who say that you can compete by paying elite but were you get into trouble is overpaying for talent. This isn’t a matter of who deserves to get paid as a human being but how you build a competitive roster in a salary cap sport and the I don’t think the problem is necessarily in the roster of the Vikings (their o-line could be better but so could most teams these days) but there is a disconnect in paying Cousins what they are and then not utilising him. I respect coach Zimmer and was reluctant to see him leave the Bengals although happy he was finally getting a chance to lead a team, but I do wonder if he has reached his level if he can’t allow his offence to run as the current version of the NFL dictates. I have a feeling he’s stubborn enough to keep the team playing like this and so the Vikings will be competitive but I don’t know that they are going to maximise this year’s team and that is a worry as the defence is not getting any younger.

What I Think

I have watched the transformation of Vontaze Burfict from a tone setting star of the defence who got the team lined up and played up to the line whilst straying over it occasionally to a liability who seems lost in his own mythos as his time on the field got less reducing both his productivity and conduct. The hit that got him ejected from this week’s game is being legislated out of the game for a reason, but almost as bad was the grin as trotted off as if he was proud of himself. There are team mates and coaches for the Raiders who are unhappy but I’m not sure that feeling will be shared around the league and there are plenty who are happy to see him gone for the season. In fact it’s not hard to find people who don’t want to see him play again. There is an argument about taking away someone’s lively hood but the fact of the matter is that in no other industry would a disregard of the rules be tolerated, particularly in a matter of health and safety. It’s not always possible to adjust when players are going at full speed but when you have the track record of Burfict you lose the benefit of the doubt.

What I Know

That after a thoroughly miserable time watching the Bengals this week I am hoping to both actually get to some coaching tape and to cheer myself up by watching Khalil Mack who is once again showing just how bad an idea it was to trade him away. It should be a fun subplot this weekend in London as the Bears take on the Raiders for the first time since Mack was trade to Chicago last year.

What I Hope

That one of Dan and I get put out of our misery and gets our first win and that the NFL continues to be as unpredictable as it was this week, even if it is terrible for our picks…

2019 Week Four Picks

29 Sunday Sep 2019

Posted by in Picks Competition

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I feel frustrated that I didn’t find the time to watch coaching tape again this week, but there is only so much time in a day and we’ll have to see if I can protect my blog time better next week. There is time for me to take another quick run through the picks, but let’s start with this week’s trivia question. We were asked:

‘In how many Super Bowls did the Buffalo Bills appear during the 1990s?
To be clear it if for Super Bowls played between 1.1.1990 and 31.12.1999.’

For once I am pretty confident about the answer as the Jim Kelly Bills famously lost four straight Super Bowls, and whilst I’m slightly worried that 3D (Dan’s Devious Dad) is trying a sneaky one with the date clarification, I’m sticking with the four that I think were all in the 90s.

As for the theme, I’m still not totally sure but I’m trying that each answer lost their last Super Bowl appearance.

‘I’m completely guessing this week. The very early 90s would have been when they would have had OJ Simpson [OJ played in the 70s so I think Dan is double wrong this week, but in fairness it could be me who is mistaken – Ed.] playing for them, and I think he took them to a Super Bowl so I don’t think the answer is zero. I think I’ll stick with ONE as my answer this week.

No guess on the theme, but I don’t think it’s cleared up enough for Gee to get it either so I’m not too concerned about that!’

One last thing before we get to the pics as I thought this nugget from Dan’s Dad in our group chat was particularly on point regarding picking games:

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Titans @ Falcons (-4.5)

I do not trust either of these teams as the Tennessee Titans are struggling on offence and the Atlanta Falcons seem to be plain struggling so I don’t see how the Falcons should be favoured by this much.

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Patriots @ Bills (+7.5)

The New England Patriots have started the season very strongly and I expect them to win this game but the Pats have picked up some injuries on offence whilst the Bills defence has looked really good (top ten by DVOA good through three weeks) and so I think this game will be more competitive than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 for a reason, their offence isn’t quite clicking and this week they travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens whose offence is very much clicking. The Brown do have the kind of receiving talent that could exploit any break downs in the secondary as the Chiefs did to the Ravens last week, but I don’t see the Ravens having failures like that two weeks in a row and for all his presence in the media, the Browns’ Baker Mayfield is no Patrick Mahomes.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Chiefs @ Lions (+6.5)

The unbeaten Detroit Lions welcome the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs but only one of these teams have tied a game to the 0-3 Cardinals. In fairness the Lions have been pretty solid and the Chiefs have picked up a couple of injuries on offence but whilst I would usually jump on this number of points for a home team, the idea of picking against Patrick Mahomes is making pick the favourite this time round.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Raiders @ Colts (-6.5)

The Oakland Raiders have looked competitive in a couple of games but have not looked good to me and have a lowly DVOA rankings as well as only one win against an even worse Broncos team. This week they take on the Indianapolis Colts who have a very good roster and Jacoby Brissett has done well replacing Andrew Luck so whilst the points give me pause, the Raiders road record seals the pick for me.

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Raiders

Chargers @ Dolphins (+16.5)

The Miami Dolphins #FishTank or roster reboot has certainly been effective at losing them games but there are genuine questions about whether an NFL team has ever really competed for a Super Bowl after going through this process. This week they welcome an LA Chargers team who are struggling with injury (a common occurrence for them it feels) who I expect may well win this game but I fancy this as the Dolphins first cover of the season as this is just too many points for me this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Washington @ Giants (-3.5)

In another universe this may well be a game featuring two rookie quarterbacks but whilst the New York Giants began their new era having got a win with Daniel Jones in his first start, the team from Washington seem to be riven with dysfunction. There are rumours that Dwayne Haskins was an ownership pick rather than one the Jay Gruden believed in, but whatever the case Washington have not looked good. I think the Giants will win at home but I really don’t like the line and whilst the numbers might suggest that Washington is the pick I can’t quite bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Panthers @ Texans (-4.5)

The Carolina Panthers actually looked better last week and got their first win of the season with Kyle Allen playing quarterback, which is more to do with Cam Newton being injured than not being any good, although the Panthers might be concerned about Newton’s long-term health given the number of hits he has taken through his career. This week they travel to take on the 2-1 Houston Texans who are all in for the season but have not truly convinced. The offensive line is still letting Deshaun Watson get hit too much but it’s the middle of the league ranked defence that is surprising. In a game where I don’t really trust either team I’m going to grab the points and this could well be one of the games I watch this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Texans

Buccaneers @ Rams (-9.5)

I absolutely hate this line as the LA Rams are the better team but have not exactly looked great this season and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been all over the shop. I love Bruce Arians but he seemed to be making some strange decisions at the end of the game last week and in the process lost to the New York Giants. However, this is a Rams whose defence is top five by DVOA and I don’t trust Jameis Winston at all. This could really come back to bite me, but at home I am going to ignore the numbers and take the Rams.

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Cardinals (+4.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have not looked like a good football team despite Kyler Murray flashing and part of that is Kliff Kingsbury is still trying to find his way in the NFL with his offence. The Cardinals welcome a Seattle Seahawks team whose defence is not up to its usual standards but the offence is ranked fifth in the league by DVOA thanks to some good young receivers and the continued excellence of Russell Wilson and so that is where I am playing my trust.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Vikings @ Bears (-2.5)

The Chicago Bears may have finally got some touchdowns for Mitchell Trubisky last week, but I still don’t trust their offence as they welcome a strong looking Minnesota Vikings team whose defence looks as great as the Bears. There are questions about Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are running the ball a lot on offence so I suspect this game will be competitive with a tight score line. It’s for this reason that I’m grabbing the points, but I would not be surprised if either team won.

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Jaguars @ Broncos (-3.5)

This game could be a trap but I’m going to walk into it anyway. The Denver Broncos have not looked good this season and who would have expected a defence with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb to have no sacks with Vic Fangio has head coach? Meanwhile, for all the nonsense surrounding Jalen Ramsey the Jacksonville Jaguars might have found something on the other side of the ball in rookie Gardiner Minshew II playing quarterback and so whilst Mile High stadium is still a tough place to play I can’t help but pick the Jaguars when I’m getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

Cowboys @ Saints (+2.5)

This could well be matchup of the week with the unbeaten Dallas Cowboys taking on the 2-1 New Orleans Saints. I was impressed with the Saints team win against the Seahawks last week and Teddy Bridgewater did enough with a week for Sean Payton to scheme things up. However, the Cowboys have been impressive all season with Dak Prescott thriving in the new offence that sees them currently ranked number one in the league by DVOA. This leads to the strange line where the Saints are underdogs at home, which would be an automatic pick if Drew Brees was playing, but he’s not and the Saints can’t have the same luck as they had last week so I’m laying the points. This could well be another trap…

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Bengals @ Steelers (-4.5)

What a stunning matchup for Monday night football with two winless teams vying to get themselves their first win – watch this game end in a tie. The Pittsburgh Steelers are somehow laying four and a half points in this one despite the offence looking like it’s missing Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell plus the defence is still struggling. The Cincinnati Bengals don’t rank any better by DVOA but they have been competitive in two of their games and I do think they are a little better than their record would suggest. I’m not saying they will get their first win on the road in Pittsburgh this week, but I like their chances of being within five.

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders‘ statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics on their site.

The Other Quarterbacks

26 Thursday Sep 2019

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

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It would appear that a quicker process was what was needed to improve my picks in week three, but sadly there was no respite for Dan or I in terms of our teams doing anything other than losing. Still, here we go with my trip through the NFL this week.

What I Saw

Week three started with a one-sided Thursday night game that never quite took off as the Jacksonville Jaguars made a mockery of my pick by grinding out a 20-7 win over the Tennessee Titans. This was a game dominated by penalties and the Jaguars pass rush that sacked Marcus Mariota a massive nine times. The Titans have a real problem as they are good enough to compete across the roster bar quarterback with Mariota holding onto the ball and reluctant to throw the ball deep. This competitiveness will make it difficult for the team to replace Mariota if the team do decide to move on and I wonder at what point we might see Ryan Tannehill get a start if things don’t improve for the Titans offence. Meanwhile, the confident Gardiner Minshew II (I do enjoy that his father’s name is not Gardiner Minshew – he was just creative when registering his son’s name) did enough in his first start to get the Jaguars their first win of the season. The strange thing was the Jaguars defence finally looked really good this week yet it seems as if they are still likely to lose arguably their best player in Jalen Ramsey. In a division that is wide open it would be a curious move indeed to trade him, as was playing him in this game if you intend to trade him and having reported sick on Monday he is on the injury list for his lower back. I still do not trust this team but if their defence can play like this a little more often and Minshew can keep the offence ticking over when the opponent’s defence has time and film to game plan for him fully then the Jaguars could climb back into contention in the division.

The next game I watched was the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Arrowhead stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs, but whilst the Ravens were able to generate over four hundred and fifty yards of offence they were not able to move the ball consistently enough to beat the Chiefs in their home opener falling to a 28-33 loss. The score is actually closer than it was for a lot of game even if the Ravens did get the first touchdown of the contest but Patrick Mahomes had another spectacular second quarter as the Chiefs scored twenty-three points that included two spectacular catches from the young Cheifs’ receivers. First Demarcus Robinson pulled in a lovely one-handed catch and then Mecole Hardman took advantage of a broken coverage to score on an eighty-three yard play that put the Chiefs 20-6 up. There was plenty of production from the Ravens offence, which managed over two hundred rushing yards as part of their day and several splash plays of their own including a several moments of rushing brilliance from Lamar Jackson. However, too many drives stalled and they cost themselves three points from failed two-point conversions, which is an interesting tactical choice when you have one of the most reliable kickers in the league. It was clearly a deliberate tactic and I don’t know the relative percentage of two-point tries versus extra points to do the maths, but if the Ravens had made all of them that would turn a five point deficit into a one point win so I can see what they were trying to do.

I’m not sure I want to write about the Cincinnati Bengals, but I’ll try as they travelled to Buffalo and suffered their third loss of the season falling 21-17 having taken a three point lead with under five minutes to go. However, whilst the record is lousy, the Bengals aren’t all that bad but maddeningly inconsistent. If they could put more consistent good play across four quarters I can see how they could be good – particularly as the pass rush is really good but the run game has been inconsistent ad I wonder where the team will be when they visit London at the end of October. Meanwhile, the Bills continue to be a tough team to face thanks to a stingy defence and an offence that seems to be doing enough. In his second year quarterback Josh Allen is finding a way to compete and the combination of him, TJ Yeldon and the ever reliable Frank Gore dominated a running game that generated one hundred and seventy-five yard. I don’t know if they can beat the visiting Patriots next week, but I suspect it will be a competitive game.

The final game of the week that I watched was the LA Rams travelling to Cleveland to beat the now 1-2 Browns: 20–13. For all the talk of offensive prowess about both teams in the off-season, this was a grind it out defensive contest that seemed to pit the Rams pass rush against the Browns generating three interceptions. The Browns got pressure of their own but it seemed that Jared Goff was the quarterback more prepared to take risks and paid the price in interceptions. However, he did enough to put twenty points on the board even with a missed field-goal, whilst the Browns offensive line seemed to scupper the Brown’s ability to move the ball consistently. The Browns looked good both running the ball with Nick Chubb and passing the ball when Baker Mayfield had time, but were not able to sustain drives regularly enough thanks to multiple Rams’ defenders getting into the backfield and harassing Mayfield. It’s no surprise that Aaron Donald played really well in this game, but the combination of him with Dante Fowler and Clay Mathews really worked for the Rams when rushing the passer with Mathews in particularly looking as good as he has done for several seasons. The saving grace for the Browns is that they have yet to play a divisional opponent but next week they travel to face the Ravens who are the early favourites to win the division. Even starting 1-3 wouldn’t necessarily scupper the Browns chances of making the playoffs given the state of the AFC North so far this season but this first AFC North game against the Raven is now massively important and the Browns have not convinced so far.

What I Heard & What I Think

I’m combining two section this week thanks to the scope of quarterback stories this week, but I’ll try to get back to my normal subjects next week.

There has been a lot of discussion about quarterback this week, which is understandable given that even discounting the Colts’ enforced change in quarterback we now have seven teams starting a different player than was planned at the start of the season. What’s more several teams got wins off the back of their new starter at quarterback. I have already mentioned Gardiner Minshew II who has been getting lots of headlines thanks to the various urban legends that are doing the rounds but one of the other performances that leapt out was by Kyle Allen who led the Panthers to their first win of the season. I don’t think this will necessarily create a quarterback controversy unless Cam Newton cannot get back to the level of performance he has in previous years, but what it does do if Allen can maintain this level of performance then the Panthers can afford to wait unit Newton is fully healthy before returning to the game. This is why whilst no team can afford to have two quality starters on the roster, a good veteran or a promising young player can turn around or rescue a season if they only need to do it for a short stretch.

For instance, the investment the Saints put into making Teddy Bridgewater one of the highest paid backups paid off when he stepped up and won on the road in Seattle. He didn’t look great, but he kept the Saints moving and got them a good win.

However, the other type of quarterback we saw step up was the high pick rookie. A lot of the headlines have gone to Daniel Jones because he plays for the New York Giants but Jones also got a win in his first start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game I’ll be looking at for this week’s Amateur Adventures in Film. It seems the days of a high round rookie quarterback sitting for an entire year are pretty much gone as even Patrick Mahomes got to start week seventeen of his rookie year. Sooner or later a highly drafted player is going to start. I suspect the next one will be in Washington but at what point I don’t know.

What I Know

That someone at the bottom of the AFC North should get their first win of the season next Monday, although it would be just my luck if the teams managed a second tie of the season.

What I Hope

That the Bengals don’t forget themselves against the Steelers and give a good account of themselves in front of the nation on Monday night.

It’s going to be a long wait…

2019 Week Three Picks

22 Sunday Sep 2019

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I am really up against the clock this week thanks to life so this is going to be a by the seat of my pants week, but first the trivia question:

‘Who set a Ravens record by rushing for 227 yards in a single game, in 1998?’

I’m really struggling on this one, so I’m going to take a wild stab at the oldest running back I can remember for the Ravens, which is Jamal Lewis, but I’m not at all sure this is early enough.

As for a theme, all I can think of is expansion teams with the Dolphins and Ravens in the last two weeks and the moving Cardinals from week one, but I’m not sure it is true.

‘Tough one again but I’m basically thinking back to who were the big running backs when I first started playing Madden games! I’m not 100% sure on this because I’m concerned I’ve got my timelines wrong, but I THINK Priest Holmes was their RB at the time – went on to be a bit legendary for Kansas City, but I think 1998 was before he moved there, so that’s my guess!

In terms of the theme, I’m thinking it could be people/teams who went on to do bigger and better things in a different places… probably wrong but it’s a guess!’

Falcons @ Colts (-2.5)

I don’t like this line at all, but I don’t trust the Falcons yet and the Colts have a solid team if their kicker could just find his form.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Bengals @ Bills (-6.5)

Will the real Bengals please stand up? The Bills have beaten two poor teams and this is their home opener, I’m going to grab the points and hope the Bengals prove me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Dolphins @ Cowboys (-21.5)

I can’t believe I’m doing this but with a young quarterback on the road against this team I’m going to grab the Cowboys as the #FishTank sets new records for awful football.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Broncos @ Packers (-7.5)

The Broncos have not looked good and the Packers have failed to convince but this line is a little too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Lions @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Lions have not been good but are undefeated and play a Philadelphia team struggling with injury and whilst I feel the Eagles win, this is too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Ravens @ Chiefs (-6.5)

Game of the day that pits two of the most exciting offences of the year against each other and we get to see how good the Ravens defence is. I could regret this given the Arrowhead home field advantage but again too many points for me,

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Raiders @ Vikings (-7.5)

The Vikings are playing ball control offence and relying on their defence but are going against a Raiders team who have been competitive and better teams than the Raiders have had the Chiefs go off against them so I think this might be close than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Jets @ Patriots (-22.5)

This line somehow is even larger than the Dolphins, but with the Jets on the road with a practice squad quarterback starting I’m going to ignore the number and hope that Patriots do the impossible, which has happened frighteningly often this decade.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Giants @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

I like the Buccaneers to win this game as Todd Bowles has done okay with the defence, they are rested and I like Bruce Arians but this is too many points, even if they are welcoming a poor Giants team starting Daniel Jones in his first game.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Panthers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I HATE this line as with Cam Newton sitting who knows what the Panthers will do whilst the Cardinals have looked frisky losers so far but getting points at home I am going grab them.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Cardinals

Saints @ Seahawks (-5.5)

The Saints are starting Teddy Bridgewater on the road in Seattle but with a week to prepare I’m sure Sean Payton can make them competitive but the Seahawks are good and I think they will run out winner. However, I’m not brave enough to pick them to win by six

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Steelers @ 49ers (-6.5)

The Steelers are clearly confident in Mason Rudolph given that they traded away a first-round draft pick for a defensive back last week, but it could be that the 49ers are genuinely good or at least competitive. I don’t like this line at all so I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Texans @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers have injuries mounting up but it’s hard to have much faith in the Texans yet both of their games have been decided by less that a field goal so let’s see if the trend continues.

Gee’s Pick:        Texans
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Rams @ Browns (+2.5)

The Cleveland Browns have not convinced at all this season, whilst the Rams have won without firing on all cylinders so I’m making this pick based entirely on my faith in the coaching staffs, despite that failing me on Thursday night.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Bears @ Washington (+4.5)

This is not exactly an exciting Monday night game in Washington who have failed to inspire whilst the Bears have failed to get a passing touchdown out of Mitchell Trubisky. This could be the team to get a breakout performance and the Bears defence is formidable, but on the results so far I’m not brave enough to call a Bears win by five.

Gee’s Pick:        Washington
Dan’s Pick:        Bears

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week 3

19 Thursday Sep 2019

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The week two games were not kind to me in terms of picks or results, and Dan’s Dad has returned to the top of the group to take a slender lead, so here are the numbers ahead of tonight’s game and the trivia question.

Dan’s Dad:       Week    8-8                  Overall   17-15
Gee:                Week    6-10                Overall   16-16
Dan:                Week    7-9                  Overall   15-17

Titans @ Jaguars (+1.5)

Both teams are coming off close losses in week two with the Jaguars defence keeping them in the hunt during rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew’s first start but ultimately losing and the Tennessee Titans lost to the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans’ loss actually could have been by more if the Colts’ Adam Vinatieri hadn’t had a horrible kicking game and this puts me in a conundrum. The Titans got a really strong win week one and are comfortably the better team in DVOA as well as ranking better in offence and defence. The problem is that their offence is struggling, in part because Marcus Mariotta’s reluctance to throw the ball down field and they are on the road.

My Thursday night rule didn’t help me at all last week and I’m wondering if a regular starting quarterback (albeit a troubled one) is enough of an advantage when combined with a better coached team to get the two point win needed to cover. It’s that final point that swayed me, for all that the talk of trades for Jalen Ramsey and dischord on the side lines might be slightly over played – but I’m going to back the more consistent team given they only need a field goal to win.

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

Week 3 Trivia

‘Well week 2 is in the can, normal service has been restored in the Picks and the trivia braces itself for a week in which the theme that is running may be identified.

But you will remember that I asked:

On their Monday Night Football debut in 1970, the Falcons lost 20-7 to whom?

Both Gee and Dan made valid attempts and I like Gee rightly identifying that it could be an expansion team. Dan went for a ‘hunting’ option and picked the Bears. However, Gee forgets that I am well trained in the art of the double-bluff so maybe I will become Dan’s Devious Dad when I tell you that it was Don Schula’s Dolphins who actually won a Monday night game on November 30.

So that means no points on either side this week. In addition, the theme was also left on the shelf – maybe this week!

Right, onto Week 3 the question is:

Who set a Ravens record by rushing for 227 yards in a single game, in 1998?

Let’s see what that brings – again there are 2 points on offer for this one.’

Quarterbacks: The Injured and The Young

18 Wednesday Sep 2019

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One of the things that makes the NFL such a spectacle week to week is that each team only plays sixteen games so every one matters and a teams prospects can change really quickly as several teams saw this weekend. Even a team with the roster depth of the Philadelphia Eagles can get undermined if too many injuries cluster around the same position, but I’ll cover that when I write up their game in the section, so let’s get started.

What I Saw

The week two Thursday night game saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers break my Thursday night line picking rule and win on the road against a Carolina Panthers team who have now fallen to 0-2. It was not a great spectacle that even started off looking strange as thanks to the weather the broadcasters only had two camera angles available and further lightening problems saw the game paused until it cleared. Neither team really shone, but for the Buccaneers Jameis Winston played without throwing an interception and didn’t get the Buccaneers into trouble while Cam Newton continued to look nothing like himself. It’s hard to evaluate from the outside what is going on with his shoulder and foot problems, but he is not effective at the moment and as good as Christian MaCaffrey has looked, he cannot carry the team when they are struggling in the red zone and Cam is missing so many consecutive passes. A trip to Arizona might help get the Panthers get back to winning ways, but they have not made things easy for themselves.

The final important part of this game to mention was that it was my first safety of the season – now this is actually the third of the year and I need to cover them properly at some point – but yes I am still tracking them! In this one the Bucs were pinned back to the three yard line by the Panthers punt team, and on second and eleven Luke Kuechly burst through the line to tackle Peyton Barber in the end zone and prevent him from getting the whole ball back across the goal line.

It was a slightly light week of watching for me thanks to work and things going on at the weekend so I only got through half of the coaching tape from the week one game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants but it was enough for me to be impressed. The Cowboys might have started off slowly, but their offence is transformed with the kind of pre-snap motion you see all over the league as well as plays where running backs split out, line up as receivers and run routes, which the Patriots used very effectively last season. The added benefit of this offensive transformation is the way Dak Prescott is playing. There were two throws that impressed me with their precision and timing, but Prescott has also amassed six hundred and seventy-four yards with seven touchdowns and only one interception in his opening two games. Right now the Cowboys look like one of the better teams in the NFL and if they can stay healthy then this could be a very good year indeed for them indeed.

I have watched two games from Sunday and I will start with the painful one from my perspective, as the San Francisco 49ers beat the Cincinnati Bengals very convincingly 41-17. The 49ers managed this whilst not so much looking spectacular on offence as benefitting from some truly awful tackling from the Bengals defence who looked so good in week one. The pass rush still looks good dangerous and it could just be a blip, but in a home opener it was a pretty dispiriting performance. The Bengals’ offence didn’t do much better barring a couple of flash plays. There are receivers in the passing game with John Ross looking good for a second week in a row and Tyler Boyd leading the team in receiving yards, but two one-hundred-yard receivers could not produce consistently enough for the Bengals to keep them in the game. More injuries hampered the offensive line and for a second week in a row the run game never got started. More worryingly the Bengals’ next game sees them travel to an unbeaten Buffalo Bill’s team who might not finish as the class of the AFC at the end of the season but look setup to be a difficult team for anyone to face. I have a nasty feeling I’ll be writing about an 0-3 team next week.

The final game I saw was the Atlanta Hawks hosting and beating the Philadelphia Eagles in a highly entertaining 24-20 contest. The Eagles really struggled with injuries in this game losing multiple offensive players early and Carson Wentz missed a series with a rib injury. It was an entertaining game but at times there was sloppy quarterback play for both teams and five interceptions were thrown between Wentz and Matt Ryan. That said the Falcons did flash on offence several times and sealed the game with a beautiful fourth and three play that saw the left tackle Jake Matthews get down field and block a poor DB to spring Julio Jones for fifty-four yards and the winning touchdown.

What I Heard

There has been much discussion of quarterbacks with two of the elite tier going down injured and the announcement finally coming that Eli Manning will be benched for Daniel Jones. Unusually, Sam Darnold did not even make the start of the week two game having been ruled out with mononucleosis, but has been cleared to return to the facility and is aiming for a week five return. What state the team will be in by then is anyone’s guess as poor Trevor Siemian was lost for the season to an ankle early in the game. The former Denver Broncos quarterback has played well when healthy but was not able to stay that way in Denver and on a one year deal this is pretty much the worse case for him.

The Cleveland Browns did what they should have done and won 23-3 but they are still sloppy. You also have to wonder about the game management when a running back comes out of the medical tent after a concussion check and gets thrown back into the game despite it being the fourth quarter with the game well and truly in hand.

What I Think

Whilst picking games on Sunday I mentioned that there would be more 1-1 teams than 2-0 or 0-2 teams, which is my way of reminding myself that we can’t take too much as set in stone from one game for each team. Unfortunately, I promptly forgot that as I actually made my selections and that partially accounts for me having such a poor week, but it also feels like that the ratio of records is different than in previous years. What I ought to do is go look at the numbers, but it’s my birthday tomorrow so things are a little all over the place and I don’t have time today, but I might well have a look at some point.

What I can tell you is that there are nine teams that have gone 2-0 to keep an unbeaten record and matching nine who have lost both of their games. Thanks to the Detroit Lions’ tie with the Arizona Cardinals we have a team with a 1-0-1 record and a corresponding 0-1-1 record while twelve teams have gone 1-1.

The teams that are really in trouble are those like Washington who have lost two divisional games already and the Pittsburgh Steelers who have lost both games and their starting quarterback. The New Orleans Saints have also lost a starting quarterback and will need Teddy Bridgwater to play well if they hope to keep themselves in contention until Drew Brees can return form surgery on his torn thumb ligament. There are some teams that may well right themselves from a solitary loss but I’m finding it hard to see turn arounds for the 0-2 teams which is a worry. The Steelers have tried to strengthen this year’s team despite Roethlisberger being done for the season with his elbow injury by trading next year’s first round pick for Dolphins safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, which is a brave move and if any team can turn it round it might be the Steelers but the defence needs to come together as well as the offence.

What I Know

This is going to be one of those ones that is going to haunt me for a while, as I know that Lamar Jackson is really good and he is going to torture my Bengals for a long time. He is rapidly becoming one of my favourites of the young quarterbacks and we are beginning to amass quite a list: Patrick Mahomes (who somehow is possibly playing better this year), Jackson, Jarred Goff who has been to a Super Bowl, Josh Allen has got the Bills to 2-0 whilst Kyler Murray has already show flashes in a couple of games. I may not be too keen on the way Baker Mayfield conducts himself at times but he was good enough to give the Browns hope whilst Sam Darnold has shown flashes and people were excited by Daniel Jones in pre-season despite him being picked too high. Still, I haven’t had to work hard to find this quarterbacks, and whilst I’m certainly not wish the end of the careers of the likes of Brees, Brady (the Patriots were scary good again on both offence and defence), or Roethlisberger – the quarterbacks that follow them are suddenly looking a lot better than it was only a couple of years ago despite the retirement of Andrew Luck and the stalling of careers like Derek Carr. I’ll finish by saying that Dak Prescott has looked really good through two games so one to keep an eye on as he approaches getting his second contact.

What I Hope

I want the Dolphins to do something in week three that brings Dan joy and the Bengals surprise us all with a win up in Buffalo. Failing that, I hope the Ravens @ Chiefs lives up to the expectations I have them because I think this has the potential to be the best game we’ve seen yet.

2019 Week Two Picks

15 Sunday Sep 2019

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I will have to rush through these a bit, but here are our trivia answers and the week two picks.

Our question from Dan’s Dad was;

‘On their Monday Night Football debut in 1970, the Falcons lost 20-7 to whom?’

Now, this could be anything, so I’m going to try to narrow the field. I believe the Falcons were an expansion team and I did a search and found that they were, in 1967 and there are three expansion teams that were created around the same time: Dolphins (66), Saints (67) and Bengals (68) but since Dan and my teams are both AFL and it would seem a little odd for Dan’s Dad to pick them so I’m going to plump for the Saints. Now it’s going to be something completely different or a devious double bluff and be one of our teams.

The theme that was mention still doesn’t seem that clear, if it’s not the centenary year, we’re still looking at a fairly early period so I’m going to plump for pre-merger football.

‘Well this really could be anyone. Absolutely anyone. I’m going to take Dad’s ‘Happy Hunting’ comment as a steer… first thought is ‘Bears’, but as Chicago was last week’s answer, I think I’ll go with the Cowboys. Complete guess though.

Link-wise, I’m no clearer. I’m not even going to make a guess this week, so here’s your chance to take an early lead, Gee!’

Bills @ Giants (+2.5)

This is a tight line that sees the home dog New York Giants trying to get their first win against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills look like they are going to be a tough team to face and managed to win a scrappy game last week. I want to take the points but this isn’t quite enough for me to do so as I do not trust the Giants one bit.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

49ers @ Bengals (-1.5)

This is one of those tricky early season lines where I thought the Bengals looked pretty good on the road in Seattle, and the 49ers win against the Buccaneers looks better now that the Bucs won their second game quite convincingly against the Panthers on Thursday night. This is a tough start for the 49ers with two road games, and whilst this can build togetherness I’m going to back my team for a second week in a row.

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Cowboys @ Washington (+5.5)

I’ve not watched the entire game, but I was impressed with the Dallas Cowboys offence that was running standard NFL pre-snap motion plus jet-sweeps and utilising flexed out running backs in stark contrast to their offence last year. Meanwhile Washington were competitive again before the Eagles turned things around against them in week one so it still hard to trust them as a team. This leaves me in a bind and I’m really not sure what to do so I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Chargers @ Lions (+2.5)

The Detroit Lions looked good for three quarters but couldn’t seal the game in the fourth quarter or over-time and this does not bode well. Nor does having to play an extra quarter of football. The LA Chargers are injured but got off to a winning start and I have lot more faith in them at the moment so that’s who I’m going to pick.

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Vikings @ Packers (-2.5)

This should be a fascinating game but is another stern test of the Packers new offence having faced the Bears in week one. The good news is that it looks like Aaron Rodgers has more support from his defence than he’s had in a long time, but the Vikings bring their run first attitude and tough defence to Lambeau in what should be a close game. This line gives me very little to work with and even last years game was a tie. I’m going to go with the Packers given they are at home and I’d pick Rodgers over Kirk Cousins but I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Colts @ Titans (-3.5)

The Indianapolis Colts gave a good account of themselves last week, but having lost narrowly to the Chargers in overtime now travel to the Tennessee Titans who shocked a lot of people by beating the Browns last week. It should not be that surprising that the Titans were competitive as they were in contention for the playoffs last season and I think they could well be again this year. In fact, coming off that strong win I fancy them to win this game but the line does make me pause but not enough to change my mind.

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Patriots @ Dolphins (+18.5)

I want to run a mile from this game. The Miami Dolphins got absolutely stuffed last week and it is hard to see the Patriots stuggling like they often seem to in their anual trip to face the Dolphins. I’m pretty certain this is the highest line I’ve ever seen, and whilst I can see the Patriots beating it, I just can’t bring myself to pick it. I would run away from this line if I was playing with money or try to tease the line down to something sensible but as I have to pick it I’m grabbing the home underdog of all home underdogs.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Cardinals @ Ravens (-13.5)

I do not expect the Baltimore Ravens to have the kind of fourth quarter mishaps that stopped the Lions putting away the Cardinals last week and so the question to me is can the Ravens beat the Cardinals by two touchdowns. The Ravens defence will be a very different beast to face for the Cardinals and I’m not sure that Kyler Murray will find the kind of rhythm he did late against the Lions. Still, this is a lot of points of I’m not quite confident enough that the Ravens will cover so I’m going to grab the points, which will feel like the smart play until the Ravens offence explodes again…

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Seahawks @ Steelers (-3.5)

This should be a really interesting game as the Steelers will be desperate to get back to winning ways having laid an egg in front of the nation against the Patriots last week. The Steelers do seem to be one of the teams who can be prone to those kind of mishaps and then bounce back but they welcome a Seahawks team who will be tough and competitive so with the Steelers needing to win by four to cover this line I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Jaguars @ Texans (-9.5)

The Houston Texans lost to a field goal in a remarkable game that featured multiple lead changes in the last few minutes and this week get the chance to bounce back against a Jacksonville Jaguars team reeling from a tough loss to the Chiefs that also cost them their new franchise quarterback to a broken collarbone. More worrying for me is the Jaguars’ defence that looked more like last year’s iteration rather than the all league unit it was two seasons ago. This is another game I’d stay away from by choice as this seems like a very high line even if the Jaguars are down to a backup quarterback. Still, I don’t trust the Texans either so I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chiefs @ Raiders (+9.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs ran out easy winners last week but lost Tyreek Hill to a nasty sounding clavicle injury and their defence still does not inspire confidence. This week they travel to face the Oakland Raiders who got a win on opening night, but at the cost of their first round draft pick. It’s not that I can’t see the Chiefs winning by ten, but given the changes and a seemingly tougher team this year I’m going to grab the points. This could be a big mistake but if the consensus spread I’m seeing is seven then this is enough above that to sway me.

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Bears @ Broncos (+1.5)

This is a real I do not know what to do game as whilst the Bears defence looked really good in week one, their offence did not fire at all whilst the Denver Broncos came out with an uninspiring offensive game and managed not to get a sack in their loss to the Raiders. The Bears also have extra rest having opened the season on Thursday night whilst the Broncos played late Monday but many teams struggle in the thin Denver air. That said, I have a lot of faith in Matt Nagy’s ability to scheme an offence and with the one unit I know I trust I’m going to nervously back the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Saints @ Rams (-2.5)

This is the other cracking game of the week that pits two of last seasons top teams against each other, both coming off week one wins. That said, both had to work hard to get those wins and there really doesn’t seem much between them. They are right next to each over in overall DVOA ranking. If this was later in the year I might factor in Drew Brees playing out of doors but in this early one I’m going to grab the points given to the future Hall of Fame quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Eagles @ Falcons (+1.5)

This is one of those games where there is a giant unknown factor for me as I don’t know if the Falcon’s performance last week was an aberration or if there are serious problems. One of their new offensive linemen is already injured and this week they face a Philadelphia Eagles team who took a little while to get going but in the end won fairly convincingly. I’m going to back that credibility even though there will be more teams with 1-1 records than 2-0 or 0-2.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Browns @ Jets (+2.5)

This Monday night game was supposed to highlight two up and coming franchises, only the Browns dropped the ball last week, losing to the Titans whilst the Jets not only lost to the Bills but Sam Darnold is out with mononucleosis and CJ Mosely is also out injured. Given how the Jets’ defence looked without their new leader Mosley last week and Darnold being out I have to back the Browns in this one but I don’t necessarily feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Competiton Thursday: 2019 Week 2

12 Thursday Sep 2019

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It’s already week two and our second competition Thursday looms so whilst it’s way too early to read much into anything here’s the results from last week and the selection for tonight’s game.

Gee:                Week    10-6                Overall   10-6
Dan:                Week    8-8                  Overall   8-8
Dan’s Dad:       Week    9-7                  Overall   9-7

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-6.5)

It may be a failure on my part that I don’t have hard rules for the Sunday/Monday games, but my maxim on Thursday nights is to pick the home team unless there are very good reasons not to and this week does not qualify for both football and number reasons.

I see the consensus line as ± 7 depending on which team you pick so this gives me a half point advantage through a key number if I go with the home team Panthers.

Additionally, whilst the Panthers lost a close home opener to the LA Rams in week one, the Buccaneers lost by two touchdowns to the 49ers in a game where Jameis Winston threw three interceptions. I have a lot of respect for Bruce Arians and it’s only one game so you cannot say that Arians can’t improve on Winston’s historically turnover heavy play, but we saw no evidence of it so far and with two teams desperate for the win I see the Panthers coming out on top at home. I am a little concerned given the amount of respect I have for the Bucs coaching staff, but whilst there are only five places between their overall DVOA rankings (technically VOA Football Outsiders don’t adjust for opponents until after week four), the difference in the actual DVOA value is 33.8% and that puts me back on the side of the Panthers in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Week 2 Trivia

‘Well the 2019/2020 season is well and truly underway with an opening week which lit a fire in many belly’s while having others fearing a long season with little to show for all the effort. I truly understand the feeling because as a QPR soccer supporter the biggest questions are around which team will turn up and ‘who thought this manager was worth having.

What is in no doubt though is the response to the trivia quiz. Last year it was week 3 before we saw a point on the board – and this time it’s 2 points each. I asked:

Prior to arriving in St. Louis in 1960, in which city did the Cardinals play their home games?

The Answer was Chicago

Founded in 1898 in Chicago, they had a number of name changes, including Morgan Athletic Club and Racine Normal’s. It was as the Chicago Cardinals, they won two NFL championships in 1925 and 1947. Despite those two successes, losing seasons were the norm for the Cardinals, along with low attendances, as they tried to compete with the crosstown Bears. With the new AFL looking to expand into St. Louis, the NFL and the team owners agreed a deal to move the team to the Missouri city.

The bonus ‘Theme’ was not won this week but picking a theme from one sample was hardly expected. My guess is that it will be identified in Week 4 ! Let’s see.

Week 2

Right, here we go again and for Week 2 my question is:

On their Monday Night Football debut in 1970, the Falcons lost 20-7 to whom?

This one also earns 2 points for a correct answer.

Happy Hunting’