Competition Saturday: 2020 Week Fifteen Picks

19 Saturday Dec 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panther, Denver Broncos, Derek Carr, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers

Week fifteen started with a win for me, although I was lucky in that I picked against Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr and he picked up a groin strain early but he was on the bench for my dynasty team so the injury helped my pick without damaging my play-off matchup. With the first Saturday games of the season coming into view there’s just time to take a quick look at tonight’s games.

Bills @ Broncos (+6.5)

The Buffalo Bills follow up their statement win against the Steelers with a trip to face the Denver Broncos who are coming off their own win. The Broncos best win of the year was against the Miami Dolphins, but the Bills offense is a very different thing to face than the Panthers who they just beat and I fully expect the Bills to win out in this one. That said, this line is big enough that it really makes me wonder if I want to back the Bills, but they have had a number of solid wins and I can’t quite bring myself to back the Broncos. I do wonder if I will regret going against my numbers though…

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Panthers @ Packers (-8.5)

I misremembered the results of the Panthers on the podcast this week as they actually only got back to 3-4 after losing their first four games, and won their last game as recently as week eleven against the Lions. This puts me in a second Saturday quandary as they have been competitive for a number of weeks and so whilst I would be shocked if they could travel to Green Bay so close to having eight players on the Covid-19 list and win, I wouldn’t be if they covered this line. The Packers are currently ranked number one in the NFC for a reason, and that reason is their league leading by DVOA offence, but whilst there are still questions about their defence against elite competition, I don’t think that is going to cause them issues in this game. That said, when I look at the consensus number the line is just that bit too rich for me, even with the Panthers only having four wins.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

The Second Wave Hits the NFL

02 Wednesday Dec 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Adrian Peterson, Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Bill O'Brien, Bob Quinn, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Covid-19, Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, Daniel Jones, Denver Broncos, Derek Henry, Deshaun Watson, Detroit Lions, Ezekiel Elliott, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jeff Driskel, Jerry Jones, Jim Caldwell, JJ Watt, Joe Burrow, Joe Judge, Kendall Hinton, Marvin Lewis, Matt Patricia, Mike Brown, Mike McCarthy, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, NFC East, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ron Rivera, Tennessee Titans, Thanksgiving Football, Vic Fangio, Washington Football Team

Against a backdrop of second waves of Covid-19 across Europe and the United States it is not a surprise that there has been an increased affect on the NFL in recent weeks that means that I’m writing the week twelve summary post with one game left to finish as I put this post live. The Baltimore Ravens have become the second team to have a facility-based outbreak of Covid-19 and so for reasons of medical safety as much as anything the Ravens take on the Steelers on a Wednesday afternoon nearly a week after it was initially scheduled to play. I will mention the other team who had a serious Covid-19 issue later, but while the cracks are showing in the NFL’s strategy, it is holding up so far and it is clear the league are now determined to keep to their weekly schedules even if they are moving individual games around.

Still, let us start with the games I have seen before we get to the details of the schedule changes that stretch into week thirteen.

What I Saw

A slightly underwhelming pair of Thanksgiving games which saw two forty point blowouts started with the Houston Texans beating the Detroit Lions 41-25. The Lions actually moved the ball well on their opening drive and scored a touchdown to take an early lead. However, the Texans quickly answered with a pick-six touchdown from JJ Watt before the offence got in on the act with a touchdown of their own. The Lions got a second rushing touchdown from Adrian Peterson to give them their last lead of the game as the Texans soon scored another touchdown and hardly looked back. I’ve heard Greg Cosell talking about how well Deshaun Watson has been playing for a number of weeks so it was nice for him to get to demonstrate this on a national stage, but the truth is that this was not a competitive game. The Lions took what seemed like the inevitable step of firing GM Bob Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia after this latest loss and will be looking to start over again as the rebuild with Quinn and Patriicia after the firing of Jim Caldwell produced worse results. This game featured two tweams who started the season with former Bill Belichick coordinators as head coaches, but while Bill O’Brien’s actions as GM of the Texans let himself down despite a good record as head coach, from the outside it looks like Patricia’s attempt to recreate Belichick’s formula rather than create his own was his downfall. This is a pattern we have seen before with the Belichick coaching tree, and stands in contrast to the success that Brian Flores is having with Miami, but it will be interesting to see in what direction both of these franchises head come the off-season.

The second Thanksgiving game saw the Washington Football Team go to Dallas and beat the Cowboys 41-16. There have been problems with the Cowboys’ defence all season, but the offence’s struggles in this game at least could be explained as the pair of alternative tackles that were starting their second game for the Cowboys both went out injured early, reducing them to third string tackles. Throw in a poor day and a fumble from Ezekiel Elliott and it’s easy to see how this game got away. It’s not as if Ron Rivera had an easy task turning around the Football Team to start with, but his coaching through cancer treatment is frankly remarkable, and his team are playing tough football and looks to be heading in the right direction. Alex Smith is not a long term answer at quarterback but there is already talk of him coming back next season, whilst rookie running back Antonio Gibson looks to be establishing himself and finished this game with over a hundred yards rushing and three touchdowns. With the injuries on the offensive line and to Dak Prescott there is some cover for Mike McCarthy’s difficult first season, but the Cowboys are probably still under-performing in a very winnable NFC East and it is the defensive side of the ball that would worry me if I was Jerry Jones. It wouldn’t take much to get the Cowboys back in the race for the division, but even if they do drag themselves back into contention there’s going to be some serious decisions to be made in the off-season.

Continuing the theme of the NFC East, the New York Giants took a share of the division lead with their 19-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. This was more of a contest than I was expecting, with the Bengals defence stepping up to an extent but the offence was only able to generate a total of one hundred and fifty-five yards of total offence and the one touchdown drive took place late in the game against a Giants playing a prevent defence. In truth, the Giants were in control for the majority of the game, had the ball for more time and I like where their defence is headed even if the offence has its limitations with Daniel Jones at quarterback. I worry what the Bengals long term prospect are, even with Joe Burrow who is a phenomenal talented young quarterback, but Zac Taylor has not convinced me with his total of four career wins and the ugly truth is that the Bengals have not had a winning season since 2015. It feels right now like my mindset as a fan has to be a lot more like the pre-Marvin Lewis Days and I find that deeply concerning. I would love to be proved wrong, but right now I feel better about how the Giants are shaping up under first year head coach Joe Judge (and there is no shortage of questions there) than how the Bengals are building. I truly hope I am proved wrong next year and it always used to be said that you shouldn’t judge a coach until their third year. These days teams are a lot quicker to judge (except ironically the Lions) but as old school as Bengals’ owner Mike Brown is, I wonder how long he will put up with the Bengals losing now they have a franchise quarterback.

The final game I watched in it’s entirety this week was the Tennessee Titans return trip to face the Indianapolis Colts that was another forty point blow out (there have been five so far in week twelve) where the Titans won 45-26. The downfall for the Colts was that their top ten defence by DVOA, that had only given up three one-hundred yard plus rushing games going into Sunday, allowing over a hundred in the first half as the Titans amassed a total of two hundred and twenty-nine yards rushing, with one hundred and seventy-eight of them coming from Derick Henry. This efficiency on the ground let the Titans keep the game script how they wanted and they quite literally ran out easy winners. There’s still a little over of the quarter of the season to go, but after a bit of a wobble the Titans have won their last two games to take sole position of the AFC South as they prepare to host the Cleveland Browns next week. The Colts are only a game back from the Titans and are solid football team so I expect these two to be neck and neck going forward unless there is a significant change to either teams roster, which is even more possible than usual this season with Covid-19 stalking teams as well as the more traditional injuries that an NFL team face throughout a season.

What I Heard

I wanted to step away from podcast topics this week to go straight to the head coach of the Denver Broncos after they were forced to play against the New Orleans Saints on Sudnay without any one of the four quarterback on their roster being available.

The reason this happened was fairly straight forward, third string quarterback Jeff Driskel tested positive for Covid-19, which is not so unusual this season. However, all four Broncos’ quarterbacks on the team/practise squad held their own workout on Tuesday and broke the protocols enough to be deemed close contacts of Driskell. This was discovered late enough in the week that none of them had five days to register clear tests ahead of Sunday and be available to play. In fact, the news broke so late that the Broncos only had a few hours to prepare a practice squad receiver Kendall Hinton, who had played some quarterback in college, to start Sunday’s game. It is unsurprising that he only completed one of his nine passes whilst throwing two interceptions.

If there is a positive to come out of this situation, I would say it is the way Fangio handled the discussion after the game stating that he was disappointed in the players for putting the team and the league in this position, but also owning up that he had obviously hadn’t done a good enough job of selling the protocols to them, when they are on their own.

You can see him talk about this and get a snippet of Kendall Hinton discussing the game here.

What I Think

It’s seems pretty clear that the NFL are very focussed on sticking to their schedule of games in a week, even if specific games do get moved about, but at this point they are doing that for medical reasons and not those of competitive balance. The Ravens got moved because they had an outbreak and then delayed an extra day so the players could have some form of in-person workout before playing.

The Broncos however, despite asking for a delay were not granted one because although at a competitive disadvantage, were able to field a team safely from a medical point of view on Sunday.

This week the teams were only allowed to operate virtually on Monday and Tuesday because of concerns over people having out of town visitors for Thanksgiving, and against a background of a second wave of Covid-19 building as we go from autumn into winter the NFL is concerned about getting to the end of its season at it’s usual pace, trying to minimise medical issues, but not worrying about competitive balance to their usual degree.

Given that teams have been fined millions of dollars and a draft pick so far over Covid-19 protocol violations, and still teams like the Raiders have been repeat offenders, perhaps the example of the Broncos playing without a recognised quarterback will sharpen people’s focusses. I remember questioning whether entire position groups going down would delay games early in the season, and now to an extent we have our answer. Unless there is in-facility transmission the answer appears to be no, you are going to have to find a way to cope.

What I Know

I knew it was going to be an odd season, but it somehow feels like it has been going on for months and yet I still can’t quite believe that we are nearly three quarters of the way through the regular season. For all that there were problems in week twelve and as a consequence we have another Wednesday game in week thirteen, I think that if you had told the NFL that they wouldn’t have lost any games by the start of week thirteen, they would definitely have taken it.

What I Hope

It feels more relevant than ever with how the world is to hope that the NFL gets through this pandemic season with no one catching a life changing version of Covid-19. Yes, I hope the league makes it through the season, and I am grateful for football as I always am, but if we learned anything from this week it is how important following protocols are for protecting yourself from Covid-19. Whatever that means for you, I hope you stay safe. With vaccines on the horizon if we can hold things together for a few more months then there is a real chance we can get back to a lot of things we are missing, even if the world will still be a different place.

We owe it to ourselves and all we’ve lost to learn from this experience, and I hope that as we can get back into the world that we do a little better with it and each other. That feels like something worth holding on to as we head into the depths of winter.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Thanksgiving

26 Thursday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Cleveland Browns, Covid-19, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team

Whilst week eleven was eventful on the pitch, but in terms of the TWF competitions it was a week of maintaining status quos with Dan keeping his nine point advantage in the picks competition and both of us scoring another elimination in our survivor competition.

Still, with games starting early today it is time to start our week twelve picks, minus the Ravens @ Steelers game that has now been moved to Sunday due to Covid-19.

Gee:	Week 11: 5 – 9	Overall: 74 – 88
Dan:	Week 11: 5 – 9	Overall: 83 – 79

Texans @ Lions (+2.5)

It somehow feels odd that both the Detroit Lions have won four games and the Houston Texans have won three. I have been pretty harsh on the Lions this season, but I was not expecting them to get shut out last week against the Panthers and I am certainly expecting some kind of reaction. That said, the Texans are coming off their own win against of all opponents the Patriots. Unhelpfully, these teams are ranked right next to each other in overall DVOA as a slightly surprising nineteenth and twentieth. I don’t have a strong lean in this one, and the consensus number suggests picking the Texans, but the points at home in what amounts to the Lions’ yearly Super Bowl party has me nervously grabbing the points. It doesn’t hurt that I have to pick us wins against Dan either.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Washington @ Cowboys (-2.5)

The Dallas Cowboys pulled themselves back into the race for the NFC East after they beat the Minnesota Vikings last week. A re-jig of the offensive line and the return of Andy Dalton was enough to dent the Vikings streak of wins as they try to mount their own play-off bid. This makes today’s game against the Washington Football Team even more important and this is another game where I am really not sure where to go. The Football Team are not exactly good, but Alex Smith has given them stability at quarterback, and they have been a tough team to face throughout the season. Their overall ranking by DVOA is actually six places better than the Cowboys, but the consensus line has moved to -3 so this is good value if you like the Cowboys. I don’t like the Cowboys particularly, but I’m not sure I like Washington either and I am wary of bias having watched the Football Team beat the Bengals last week. In short, I want to trust the numbers, but I have conflicting sets of those as well. In the end, there are some trends for both Washington and Cowboys that reluctantly has me going for the Cowboys, but I could feel a real idiot tomorrow as 0-6 or 8-0 runs are probably due to be broken.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Survivor Competition

Well, both of use were wrong last week, with misplaced faith in the Patriots and Vikings being Dan and mine’s downfall. Dan has decided this week to back the Browns over the Jaguars, which is pretty hard to argue with, but isn’t an option for me so after considering going against the Jets or picking the Saints, I have settled on the Seahawks taking on the Eagles.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 8

Week 12 Selection:

Gee: Seahawks
Dan: Browns

Bold Prediction of the Week

I really dislike this feature and particularly struggled with it both before and on the pod, as evidenced by the fact that my shock of the week is the Eagles beating the Seahawks despite selecting opposite that in the survivor pool.

I guess at least this way I have emotionally hedged that game….

2020 Week Ten Picks

15 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Bill Lazor, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Carson Wentz, Chicago Bears, Covid-19, Dalvin Cook, Detroit Lions, Jared Goff, Joe Judge, Kansas City Chiefs, Kirk Cousins, LA Rams, Matt Nagy, Matt Rhule, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFC East, NFC West, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Podcast, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Week 10 Picks

The split of this Sunday’s games is a little more even this week because of the Masters golf tournament so we actually have more late games than early ones. I felt happy with my Thursday night pick up until half time, but the Titans demonstrated why all three phases of the game are important and I should remember that lines which cross key numbers or in that game’s case, go from giving to getting points mean it is a bad plan to stick with the giving number. Luckily Dan thought as I did so I only dropped a game back from being evens, but it is another thing to remember as we run through the week ten games.

Early Games:

I think there are two games that stand out in the early slate, and Dan has already commented on the podcast about my interest in one of these games so if you can’t hear his disappointment from reading my words, have have a listen here.

I think the obvious big game is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who will be desperate to get right after their horrible loss to the Saints last week. The Bucs travel to Carolina to take on their second divisional opponent in a row and a Panthers team who may only have a 3-6 record but are not an easy team to face even if they have lost their last four games. The Panthers pushed the Chiefs hard last week and only lost by a field goal to the Saints in week seven so I can see them putting up a credible effort against the Buccaneers. However, two of the Bucs’ three losses this season are against the Saints whose coaching staff seem to have the number of both the Bucs offence and defense so whilst I like what Matt Rhule and his staff are building in Carolina, the Bucs are still ranked second overall by DVOA so I like them to win this game, but I’m not so sure about them covering a five and half point line.

The other game of interest to me is the Philadelphia Eagles travelling to face the New York Giants, that is a divisional matchup from the NFC East – the division so bad that all four teams have losing records. I actually like some of what Joe Judge has been building with the Giants and picked them to beat the Washington Football Team last week, but the Eagles are coming off a bye and will be hoping that some rest and returning players enables them to push on in the second half of the season and win the division. I think the Eagles are still the team to beat, but they have to persuade Carson Wentz that throwing away the ball if the pass is not there is an okay thing to do, and get some kind of consistency from the offences. The Eagles still have a good pass rush, but they have not been a good football team this season, which makes the divisional matchups even more important. The Giants own defensive line has been doing some interesting things, but I think they are likely to fall short in this game, If the Giants could get the win they would suddenly be in a wide open race for the division, but I really don’t know what we should expect. It might not be the prettiest game to watch, but I think there is a certain fascination in this one and it might well make it on my watch list for week ten.

Points from the rest:

If the Browns are to continue their push for the play-offs then they need to beat a 2-6 Houston Texans team who interestingly are ranked eighteenth by DVOA. With Baker Mayfield back from the Covid-19 list as the Browns come back from the bye they should do so and with the Browns looking like a competently ran franchise I like them to do just that, even if the line does make me nervous.
The Washington Football Team visiting the Detroit Lions feels like a game for the die hards only. It was always going to be a big job to turn the Football Team round, whilst the Lions look like a team who are going to fire their head coach after three years.
The Green Bay Packers are laying a huge number of points in this game because the Jaguars are bad. That said, rookie quarterback Jake Luton did a couple of nice things in his debut last week so the line might be in danger but I very much doubt the result is.

Texans @ Browns (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Washington @ Lions (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Jaguars @ Packers (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Eagles @ Giants (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Buccaneers @ Panthers (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Late Games:

I can make an argument for watching all six of the late game but I’ll stick to writing up a couple of them so this post doesn’t get out of hand.

The Buffalo Bills beat the Seahawks last week and take their 7-2 record on the road to face another NFC West team in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are a very respectable 5-3 but if you look at their wins, the only win against a team with a current winning record was against the Seahawks. The Cardinals are actually ranked two places better overall than the Bills and are in a tougher division, but with the Cardinals having feasted against NFC East teams and the Jets I think the Bills are a more battle tested group and I like the Bills getting points.

One of the matchups of the week is the NFC West divisional game between the LA Rams and the visiting Seattle Seahawks. I have a feeling this will be an entertaining game as the Seahawks pass defense is struggling and with a sluggish pass-rush you would think that Jared Goff will be able to make the Rams’ offence look like its best self. That might not be enough to get a win against the Seahawks, but I think it should be a highly entertaining game and certainly not one to be missed.

Points from the rest:

The Las Vegas Raiders host a Denver Broncos team who seem to be kings of the comeback but can’t put a complete game together and so I fancy the Raiders to get the win, although I’m really not sure about covering the line.
The Miami Dolphins host the LA Chargers in a showcase of two rookie quarterbacks exciting their fan bases. The Dolphins’ players who were put on the Covid-19 list is a concern for this game, but at this point I will believe the Chargers will win consistently only when they prove it, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get a third win this week.
I don’t know if the Cincinnati Bengals visit to Pittsburgh will live up to it’s hard hitting reputation, but I would like Joe Burrow to at least look good against the Steelers, a team that has beaten the Bengal in eleven of their last twelve contests
The 49ers visit to the New Orleans Saints should be a marquee matchup, and it’s possible that head coach Kyle Shanahan will muster some tricks from somewhere against the Saints’ defence, but with the 49ers enormous injury list and the Saints looking ominously good last week I wouldn’t like to predict it.

Bills @ Cardinals (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Broncos @ Raiders (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Chargers @ Dolphins (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Bengals @ Steelers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Seahawks @ Rams (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

49ers @ Saints (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Sunday Night Football:

Ravens @ Patriots (+6.5)

In recent years this would be a great Sunday night game, and it still might spring something of a surprise, but between the players who opted out of the season or just aged out the Patriots are not a good team this year. The Ravens’ offence may not be firing on all cylinders and you would expect Bill Belichick and his staff to have some wrinkles for that offence, but with twenty-one places between their overall ranking by DVOA and this line dropping below the key number I am seeing online I’m going to pick the Ravens. I am nervous about this pick, but lets not forget that the Pats did nearly lose to the Jets last week.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Monday Night Football

Vikings @ Bears (+2.5)

The Minnesota Vikings won their second game in a row last week when they soundly beat the Lions, and they have a couple of winnable games coming up so if they can beat the Chicago Bears there is an outside chance of them dragging themselves back into the play-off hunt after a poor 1-5 start. It is a long shot, but the return of Dalvin Cook has given the Vikings’ offence balance and enabled Kirk Cousins to succeed in play-action while the defense is now ranked fifteenth in the league by DVOA despite the overhaul of the secondary. The Bears defense is of course the strength of the team once again, but even though it is ranked in the top five, the Bears offence is ranked twenty-eighth and their special teams are only a little better. Things have got desperate enough in Chicage that Mat Nagy has handed over play calling duties to Bill Lazor, which is a move I do like as it means Nagy can concentrate on managing the game. However, the Bears’ quarterback situation does not cover up the problems they are having on the offensive line and I kind of fancy the Vikings to win this one so with this liner once again dropping off a key number I am seeing online, that is the way I am going to pick.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

AFC and NFC North Preview

03 Thursday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Pre-Season

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Aaron Rodgers, AFC North, AJ Green, Andy Dalton, Antonio Brown, Baker Mayfield, Baltimore Ravens, Ben Roethlisberger, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Deshaun Watson, Detroit Lions, Freddie Kitchens, Gary Kubiak, Green Bay Packers, Jim Caldwell, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Jonah Williams, Jordan Love, Kevin Stefanski, Khalil Mack, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Le'Veon Bell, Mason Rudolph, Matt LaFleur, Matt Patricia, Matthew Stafford, Mike Tomlin, Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings, Mitchell Trubisky, Myles Garrett, NFC North, NFL, Nick Foles, Odell Beckham, Patrick Mahomes, Pittsburgh Steelers, Stefon Diggs, Zac Taylor

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens finished last season with the best regular season record but came up short in the play-offs against a Tennessee Titans team on a roll. This will lead to ongoing conversations about Lamar Jackson’s ability to win play-off games. That question is going to hang around until he does, but Jackson was the 2019 MVP for a reason, namely over three thousand yards of passing and twelve hundred yards on the ground. The Ravens did a great job of building their offence around Jackson and had a top five by DVOA defence to boot. The Ravens are in fact one of the better run franchises in the league so as long as Jackson can stay healthy then it is hard not to see this team competing again this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers went 8-8 last season despite losing veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in week two to an elbow injury. Their defece ranked third in the league by DVOA and their special teams was was top ten but a dead last offence saw them miss out on the play-offs. This is perhaps not surprising given they had no killer Bs left after Big Ben went down with Le’Veon Bell underwhelming for the Jets and Antonio Brown’s erratic and troubling behaviour seeing him barely play for Patriots before being cut for a second time having already failed to make the start of the season with the Raiders. The Steelers are another stable franchise so if Roethlisberger can stay healthy while getting somewhere near his best and the defence manages not to regress too much then they should be in contention come the end of the year. There are no guarantees in the NFL, and the AFC North should be a battle this year but I expect the Steelers to be in contention again as they usually are. That said, out of the thirteen season he has been head coach for the Steelers, Mike Tomlin has only failed to reach the play-offs in five, but that does include the last two seasons. I wouldn’t expect this to lead to problems for Tomlin if there are further struggles this season as the Steelers have been famously patient with their coaches and he did a great job under the circumstances, but it could be one to keep an eye on.

Cleveland Browns

Turmoil seems to follow the Browns ever since their return to the league, but last year was a nightmare. They had play-off ambitions with a talented roster and a new head coach in Freddit Kitches who had established a connection with young quarterback Baker Mayfield in his rookie year. However, things were not right all season. Mayfield regressed in his second season with a falling completion percentage and similar numbers despite starting the full season for the first time. One of his new receiving targets, Odell Beckham was injured all year and so did not look like himself and nothing quite clicked on offence. The defence was hamstrung with Myles Garrett got involved in a fight with Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph, and having hit the quarterback over the head with their own helmet was suspended for the final six games of the season. The Browns come into this season with another new head coach, who almost can’t help being better than Freddie Kitchens and there is still plenty of talent on the roster, but Mayfield needs to take a step as a quarterback and so a lot is resting on how he will run new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s system. I have a feeling that thinkg will be better for the Browns, but in a competitive division I’m not sure if they will be able to push for the play-offs or not.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were truly woeful last year in Zac Taylor’s first season as head coach. Some of that wasn’t his fault as AJ Green was lost to an ankle injury that was picked up at the first training camp practice, which for an NFL 100 event was played on a high school field they should never have been on and soon after that the Bengals’ first round draft pick, left tackle Jonah Williams, was lost to a shoulder injury whilst they were still in camp. In fact, the offensive line was bad all year as the offence struggled so much they had to rip up the approach halfway through to get Joe Mixon going and the defence was bad. They had the worst record in the league for a reason, but they were within a touchdown in half of their fourteen losses and after several seasons where Andy Dalton could never find the form he showed in the 2015 the Bengals moved on, taking college sensation Joe Burrow with the first pick after his ridiculously good Heisman winning season at LSU where he led the Tigers to the college championship. All the talk is that he’s been learning the playbook during the offseason via zoom and has looked in good in training camp, but who hasn’t looked good in training camp this year? There’s no way to know without seeing him in games, and the offensive line needs to be better for him to operate successfully, but there are still lots of good skill players and if they don’t need a perfect pocket for the quarterback to operate then they stand a solid chance of improving on that side of the ball. The Bengals defence has a re-tooled linebacker group and the team signed some free-agents, but it’s hard to get too excited. I think there is a good chance this team will look better and win some more game, they might even flirt with going .500 but after such a bad season I don’t think you can expect a worst to first type performance with a rookie quarterback, and particularly not in this division. I would love to be proved wrong but I think this should be a season of growth for the Bengals and after last season that will be okay.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

I think this is one of the more intriguing division in football, and last year’s division winners are an interesting case in point. The Packers went 13-3 and got to the Conference Championship game, but were handily beaten by the 49ers and gave up over two-hundred and fifty yards of running in that game. A lot of the talk through the season and on into the off-season was the play of Aaron Rodgers who still threw for over four thousand yards despite what many were calling a down year and his new head coach Matt LaFleur’s focus on running the ball. If there were to be signs of this approach changing, they were not obvious in the Packers offseason. Not only did they not take a receiver again this draft, but they traded up in the first round to select quarterback Jordan Love. It might be that the Packers are taking the view that you should always have a quarterback in development, or that they saw the opportunity to recreate the transition the Packers had from Brett Farve to Rodgers, but it was a significant move. Given the age of Rodgers (36) and the change of both GM and head coach in recent seasons, they could simply be preparing to move on. However, whilst Rodgers is clearly closer to the end of his career than the start, with modern sports medicine and the NFL’s current rules to protect quarterbacks he should still have several productive years yet and has spoken of playing into forties. The Packers might be expected to regress from thirteen wins this season and will be looking to further improve their defence. I suspect they will remain competitive, but I can’t help but feel this will be a team battling to maintain their success rather than taking a step forward.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings won a play-off game against the Saints before losing to the Super Bowl bound 49ers in the divisional round, but this did give quarterback Kirk Cousins his first play-off win of his career. Under head coach Mike Zimmer the Vikings have alternated years in the play-offs with seasons missing out despite being around 8-8, but they had a busy off-season and they would be hoping these transactions will helps them build on last season’s success rather than having a fallow year. However, integrating a draft class of fifteen was always going to be a big task, but doing so with the current practice restriction in place for this season could be a step too far. This is particularly the case for an overhauled secondary that lost three starting corners with over 223 collective career games. I have a lot of faith in coach Zimmer to look after a defence, but it makes me hesitant to be too bullish on them, particularly given the number of offensive coordinators that the Vikings have been through under Zimmer and the fact that they traded away star receiver Stefon Diggs. Going into the season with so many unknows makes it hard to be certain of anything, and given the limited number of games in an NFL season there is a certain amount of randomness built in. I like that Gary Kubiak is the offensive coordinator having consulted last season before Kevin Stefanski left for the Browns, and I think the Vikings will compete for the division but I can easily see things going awry for them in a potentially turmultous season.

Chicago Bears

There is a large amount of anxiety surrounding the Bears, which mainly stems from the quarterback position as Mitchell Trubisky regressed in 2019 after a promising first season in head coach Matt Nagy’s debut as a head coach. I never liked the trade up to pick Trubisky, and that pick looks even worse given that the Bears picked him ahead of both Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. The offence ranked a miserable twenty-fifth by DVOA whilst the defence regressed from first in 2018 by DVOA to eighth in 2019. The defence will likely be good enough, but with Trubisky now having Nick Foles in the quarterback room there is the potential for a quarterback controversy, although it is hard to have a huge amount of faith in either one as Foles has a history of inconsistent play. Special mention should go to Khalil Mack as the fearsome pass rusher he is, but I’m not sure that the fairly traditional for the Bears formula of stout defence and a struggling offence is going to cut it in 2020, and likely wasn’t envisioned when offensive minded coach Nagy was hired. The Bears could surprise me, but I’m not putting any faith in it.

Detroit Lions

The Lions opened last season with a concerning draw to the very inexperienced Arizona Cardinals, dragged themselves to 2-0-1, before falling back to 3-3-1 and failing to win another game. They were not helped by losing quarterback Matthew Stafford halfway through the season, who was playing well and very nearly had two and half thousand yards through eight games. My concern here is that the Lions were a nearly team under Jim Caldwell, but 9-7 was not deemed good enough when the Lions missed out on the playoffs and so Matt Patricia was brought in from the Patriots to get the Lions the play-off success Detroit thirsts so much for. However, Patricia has rebuilt the Lions as a pale re-imagining of the Patriots and has been unable to recreate the Patriot’s defensive formula away from Belichick. The Lions have only managed to win nine games in the last two season and whilst I can see that if everything goes right that the Lions might vault the Bears in this division, I’m not sure if I can see them doing much more. Matthew Stafford has some good skill players around him so it’s not impossible, but given the history in Detroit it could take a monumental effort to turn things around. Equally, the Lions could be due for a change, but for whatever reason, I do not find Patricia inspiring but as I tend to hope for success he could yet prove me wrong.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday & The Disappointed Twenty: NFC Edition

02 Thursday Jan 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Bruce Allen, Bruce Arians, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Christian McCaffrey, Dallas Cowboys, Dan Snyder, Daniel Jones, Dave Gettleman, David Tepper, Detroit Lions, Disappointed Twenty, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Jason Garrett, Jay Gruden, Jim Caldwell, Kliff Kingsbury, Kyle Allen, Kyler Murray, LA Rams, Matt Patricia, Matt Stafford, Mitchell Trubisky, New York Giants, NFL, Pat Shurmur, Picks Competition, Ron Rivera, Sean McVay, Steve Keim, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Todd Gurley, Washington

Well the picks competition is over and for a second consecutive year since he started competing, Dan’s Dad is pick champion whilst I slipped back to third.

Dan’s Dad:	Week 17: 6-10	Overall: 143-113
Dan:	Week 17: 6-10	Overall: 136-120
Gee:	Week 17: 7-9	Overall: 130-126

Looking back at last year I am three points worse whilst Dan has increased his score by eleven (I suspect through not blindly picking the Dolphins) whilst Dan’s Dad added a modest six to beat Dan by seven, which is a three point increase on his lead over me last season.

The moral of all this is that Dan and I will need to really step are games up next season if we’re stop the blog permanently being purple and gold. I’ll let 3D fill in the rest in his trivia write up, whilst I take a run through the teams from the NFC who left us this week.

The Disappointed Twenty: NFC Edition

The Dallas Cowboys have plenty of talent on the roster, but couldn’t convert good statistics into wins with clear issues in coaching. However, there is still no word out of Dallas about Jason Garrett losing his job despite everybody thinking it would happen. His contract doesn’t run out until later this month, but with a series of solid drafts the big question for next season is what is going to happen with the coach and until we know that, you can’t say too much about the Cowboys’ plans for next year, although they do have to make big decisions on who to re-sign.

The New York Giants had a tough season with a few scattered bright spots from rookie quarterback Daniel Jones, but clearly had a disappointing season finishing 4-12. After two consecutive losing season this has cost Pat Shurmur his job, but interestingly not Dave Gettleman. I mention Gettleman not because I have any wish to campaign for someone to be fired, but the Giants have not won for two season and Gettleman was responsible for picking Saquon Barkley with the second pick two years ago rather than taking a quarterback or even listening to offers. Even in last year’s draft he took Daniel Jones at a position much higher than he was predicted to go when he had a second pick in the first round to use on him. It’s hard to know what is going to happen in the off-season, but I don’t have a lot of faith in this franchise to make enough of the right decisions to improve drastically next season.

The seasons of failure continued in Washington, but Dan Snyder has certainly wasted no time in making changes having fired Jay Gruden earlier in the season. Gone from the front office is Bruce Allen whilst the news of new head coach Ron Rivera’s hiring was broken Monday and made official on Wednesday. There is a lot of work to turn around the culture in Washington and a lot will depend on who the new GM is and who has final say in drafting players and roster moves, but they do at least have an experienced coach who has always had a great relationship with his locker room.

The Chicago Bears finished 8-8 with third year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky failing to develop from last season. There are some big decisions coming with regards to their signal caller, and certainly the move to get him is not justifying itself yet so all eyes will be on him until he either proves himself or another player is given a go. It will be worth watching the Bears in the off-season to see if they make any moves at quarterback.

The Detroit Lions hired Matt Patricia to put them over the top having missed out on the playoffs with a 9-7 record under Jim Caldwell. Unfortunately, Patricia decided an overhaul was needed and the Lions have been rewarded with first a 6-10 season and now 3-12-1 so next season is a big one for Patricia who has kept his job. It may be that the saving grace for him was quarterback Matt Stafford being out for the latter half of the year, but the defence hasn’t been good (it’s never good for a head coach if their side of the ball is not great) and I imagine there will need to be a dramatic turnaround next season for there not to be big changes.

The Atlanta Falcons started the season 1-7 but managed to finish 7-9 and come second in the NFC South as the players seemed to rally round their head coach Dan Quinn and were successful in keeping him his job. However, I don’t know if they can turn things round in the off-season given that things haven’t really been right since they were in the Super Bowl and at some point there may need to be a change to get back to winning ways.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also finished 7-9, although they started 2-6 but their season can be summed up in the performance of Jameis Winston who threw for over five thousand yards and thirty touchdowns, but he also threw thirty interceptions. It feels like the positive statistics means that you have to re-sign Winston, but unless Bruce Arians can find a way to limit the turnovers it is hard to see the Bucs consistently win.

The Carolina Panthers had a rough season, starting with two losses before Cam Newton was sat with injuries that ultimately didn’t see him return to the field. The Panthers turned to backup quarterback Kyle Allen who was able to get the team back to a 5-3 record before things truly fell apart and they could not win another game this season. This led to Ron Rivera being fired before the end of the season, and has overshadowed the remarkable feat of running back Christian McCaffrey who managed to amass over a thousand yards rushing and receiving. New owner David Tepper says he wants to meld old school football toughness with modern analytics and is also overhauling the front office so we shall just have to see what this results in next year.

The LA Rams finished with a winning record, but could never quite compete with the Seahawks and 49ers in their division. They never fell below .500 but Todd Gurley does not look the same running back and as a result for much of the season Sean McVay couldn’t find the right balance on offence. He is still a really good coach, but there are now structural problems with the roster as they have a lot of money tied up Todd Gurley and Jared Goff. Neither player have really lived up to them, and there are other players who also need signing and not many draft picks to refresh the roster. The front office think they have a different formula to compete, but next season will be key to see if the franchise can bounce back or if things are going to go badly.

Finally, we have the Arizona Cardinals who got five wins in Kliff Kingsbury’s first season as an NFL head coach with rookie quarterback Kyler Murray showing promise. Given how much work was needed to improve the roster, it was no mean feat to improve their season record by two wins and a draw from last year given the quality of the other teams in the NFC West. However, they will need Steve Keim to have a good off-season if the Cardinals are to get enough talent for them to challenge for the playoffs and if they fail to make it for a fifth season then perhaps the position of Keim is the one that will need examining.

Wildcard Trivia

‘Greetings Friends

Week 17 has come and gone and the end of the Regular Season has delivered what we hope will be a juicy playoff series.

I will be keen to see if the Vikings can reverse their recent collapse of momentum against the Saints, but with the 49ers lying in wait this will be a big ask. Equally attractive is the Seahawks and Eagles vying for a match up at Green Bay. Yet again the NFC seems to deliver some meaty games.

In the AFC I am less excited by the Wildcard games, although never rule out the Pats is one lesson I’ve learned. The excitement though will be in the next games when the oft-unfancied Ravens and the Chiefs re-enter the battle.

I feel that the week’s gap for 4 teams can go either way. Momentum or recovery time can be important and this is one area where a coach earns their corn.

I’ll stick my neck out now and predict that Superbowl LIV will be contested between the Saints and the Chiefs with Kansas running out narrow winners. There, I’ve given you a stick to beat me with. Ho Hum never mind.

Talking of predictions the Picks competition also ended on Sunday and I agree with Gee’s comments in Thursdays post that week 17 is very difficult to call as some teams have nothing to play for while others would be desperate to position themselves well for either the Play-offs or, don’t forget, who will be on the roster for next year. Already we have seen the coaching merry-go-round starting up and I see this being a very busy closed season.

I think the mixed agendas contributed to one of the lowest scoring weeks we have had. What is pleasing though is that as a group we have increased the total of wins by 9 over last season. Dan and I managed a disappointing 6 each but the week was won by Gee on 7. But how I achieved a rank of 2253 in the whole competition I will never know. Maybe it proves I have a smarter pin than I thought.

One thing that is still running through the post season is the trivia quiz and in week 17 I set 2 questions both around LA Quarterbacks. They were:

I was the quarterback that led the Rams to a victory in the 2000 Super Bowl against the Tennessee Titans. I lost my starting job after I fumbled six times in the first game of the 2003 season. Who am I?

This was correctly identified by both Dan and Gee as Kurt Warner

Which Charger quarterback bounced back from a dismal 2003-04 season, winning the Comeback Player of the Year Award, throwing 27 touchdowns to seven interceptions, and landing himself a spot in the 2005 NFL Pro Bowl?

Here too they both named Drew Brees.

So 4 points each being Gee up to 19 and Dan 22.

This week I will drop in at 3 teams and again there is 2 points for each.

First we are at the Miami Dolphins, so no pressure here Dan.

After the Dolphins made it to Super Bowl VIII after the 1973 season, what was the next season they saw Super Bowl action?

Next we relocate to the Twin Cities to ask this about the Vikes.

Who did the Vikings play in their first Super Bowl, which was Super Bowl IV, played on January 11, 1970?

Finally this week it is the New England Patriots,

The Patriots moved and changed their name in 1971. What was the home city and their name prior to that?

Right then, that’s 2019 done and we look for a vision for 2020. Catch you next week’

On the Home Straight

04 Wednesday Dec 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Andy Dalton, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Brandon McManus, Buffalo Bills, Carlos Dunlap, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Dalvin Cook, David Blough, David Tepper, Detroit Lions, Drew Brees, Houston Texans, Jason Garrett, Jerry Jones, Josh Allen, Justin Tucker, Kenny Galloday, Kirk Cousins, LA Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, Mitchell Trubisky, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, NFL, Ron Rivera, Russell Wilson, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Stefon Diggs, Tom Brady

There is now only a quarter of the regular season left and week thirteen saw the Bengals win their first game, the Panthers part with one of the longest tenured coaches in the league, and Jason Garrett looks to be heading the same way at the end of the season after the Cowboys loss on Thanksgiving so let’s take a look at a busy week in the NFL.

What I Saw

The first Thanksgiving game saw the Chicago Bears take on a struggling Detroit Lions team who were down to their third starting quarterback, but after a successful first defensive drive – David Blough completed a deep pass to Kenny Galloday for a seventy-five yard touchdown and for most of the game the Lions were able stay ahead or level with he Bears but ultimately the Lions couldn’t hold on and the Bears won 24-20. Things are still not great for the Bears but this was a decent performance whilst the Lions have lost a fifth straight as things are just not working, and not getting pressure on Mitch Trubisky was enough for him to have a three hundred yards passing day, a rare thing for the Bears this year.

Next up the Buffalo Bills rolled into Dallas and ground out a win against the Cowboys to take themselves to 9-3, which gives them a two-game lead against any other second placed team in the AFC. The Bills took the chance to demonstrate the tough defence and steady progress of their second-year quarterback Josh Allen on the national stage. The Cowboys meanwhile continue to confound, and whilst this is not the first time there has been talk about Jason Garrett losing his job it definitely feels like the problems with the Cowboys have become too much for Jerry Jones.

The final Thanksgiving game was a strange contest that saw the New Orleans Saints out-gained by the Atlanta Falcons but ran out winners thanks to some steady kicking and the Falcons three turnovers. The Falcons mini-recovery was not sustainable whilst the Saints are still looking very competitive in what is a loaded NFC. The fact that the Saints managed to get to 10-2 without Drew Brees for five games is a demonstration of how good their coaching staff is and should not be forgotten amongst the other outstanding performances this season.

The first Sunday game I’m going to write about was a match-up of another pair of outstanding 2019 teams as the San Francisco 49ers traveled right across the country and played an early game against the Baltimore Ravens. The 49ers defence were helped by the rain and managed to contain the Ravens all game but lost to a last second Justiun Tucker forty-nine yard field goal from one of the best kickers to play the game. It’s almost unfair for a team who has one of the most explosive offences in the league to have such a good kicker, but the 49ers looked to be every bit as good in this game and I think people would be very happy to see this match-up again in a Super Bowl.

The other Sunday game I watched was the Cincinnati Bengals proving me wrong on Sunday and comfortably beating the New York Jets. The Bengals defence seems to have come on in the last few weeks whilst the injuries have caught up with the Jets who struggled to move the ball all game whilst the Bengals got lots of pressure and Carlos Dunlap racked up three sacks. On offence, Andy Dalton threw for two touchdowns to break the franchise record for passing touchdowns on his return to the starting line-up and looked solid in distributing the ball getting help from some impressive catches. I’m really pleased for the Bengals as no one wants to be another team to go winless and what I liked was the talk about not being satisfied but trying to build good habits and momentum for next season. We shall have to see. As for the Jets, they really struggled and I’m really not sure what they will do in the off-season given the disappointment this season has been given the investment over the summer.

The final game of the week was a great contest between the Minnesota Vikings and the Seattle Seahawks where the Seahawks were able to withstand a late game comeback from the Vikings a finish the game 37-30 winners. There will be a lot of talk about Kirk Cousins’ 0-8 Monday night record and I certainly had more faith in Russell Wilson but the injury to Dalvin Cook and a couple of drops by the normally reliable Stefon Diggs didn’t help Cousins. Given the quality of the Vikings’ defence you would expect to score thirty points and win a game but they were competitive and I would imagine they feel like they could still win against any team going forward. The Vikings fell a game behind the Green Bay Packers at the top of the NFC North, but with three divisional games their fate is very much in their own hands. As for the Seahawks, they have the same number of wins as the 49ers in the NFC West and are looking to kick on into the playoffs and see just how far they can get.

What I Heard

There has been plenty of talk about the Cowboys as there always is, but Jason Garrett is not the only coach to be under scrutiny. The LA Chargers found another way to lose a close game, this time not ensuring their opponents had to return a kick off and eat up clock so there was just time for the Denver Broncos to try a deep pass that drew a pass interference penalty and Brandon McManus to hit a fifty-three yard field goal in the thin Denver air to clinch the game.

There had already been speculation around Ron Rivera given the Panthers current losing streak so when the Panthers lost to Washington this Sunday, new owner David Tepper decided he wanted to get an early start on finding a successor and fired Rivera on Tuesday. The two time NFL Coach of the Year who took the Panthers to a Super Bowl stated his desire to get straight back into coaching today and it would not surprise me at all to see him in charge of a different team next season.

What I Think

I have gone through multiple games this week and still the headlines come. The New England Patriots are having problems in the passing game and weren’t helped by an illness running through the team that saw them take two planes to Houston, but segregating the ill players didn’t help them stay in the game against the Texans. I don’t know if the problems the Patriots have are solvable, but I don’t think anyone doubts that if there is a solution, the combination of the coaches and Brady will find it. However, with the Ravens marching on and the Chiefs looking like they are coming into form at the right time it could be a new team representing the AFC after a hat-trick of appearances from the Patriots.

There looks to several strong teams at the top of both conferences and if everyone can stay healthy in the last month we could have an exceptionally good series of playoff games. I don’t want to wish away the season, and there’s plenty of interesting match-ups to come but it does feel like we have a bumper crop of teams with realistic shots at playoff success.

What I Know

There are only four games left and whilst many teams are gearing up for a playoff run, there are also a lot of teams who will be looking at players at the bottom of the roster as they try to evaluate who they think will be the cornerstone of turning things round next season. It seems crazy to be thinking about that already, but this is the reality of the NFL.

What I Hope

I really do hope that the teams at the top of the divisions stay healthy so the outcomes are determined on the field and not in the training room.

Competition Thursday: Thanksgiving 2019

28 Thursday Nov 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Competition Thursday, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Thanksgiving Football

So Dan’s Dad extended his lead at the top of the picks competition last week as we edge closer to a second consecutive season win for him unless Dan or I get on a hot-streak.

I would just like to say that I am thankful for all the help and engagement of both 3D and Dan over the years as well as to any of you for reading this, whether you are a long time reader or only recently discovered our little corner of NFL fandom. Anyway, on to the picks as there are games a coming.

Dan’s Dad:	Week 12: 8-6	Overall: 97-79
Dan:	Week 12: 5-9	Overall: 94-82
Gee:	Week 12: 7-7	Overall: 90-86

Bears @ Lions (+2.5)

The 5-6 Chicago Bears have won two out of their last four games but Mitch Trubisky has been wildly inconsistent and frequently plain bad in his third year and so I’m really not sure how the Bears will fare in this trip to play in the Detroit Super Bowl, the Lions’ annual Thanksgiving game. The Lions have the excuse of their franchise quarterback being out with fractures in his back, but they have been underwhelming for much of the season even before having to start Jeff Driskell and now it seems they are down to their third string quarterback as Driskell has surfaced on the injury report with a hamstring injury. I don’t’ exactly feel great about it, but that’s enough for me to reluctantly to give the edge to a team that actually ranks worse by DVOA. Yeah, avoid picking this game if you don’t have to.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Bears

Bills @ Cowboys (-6.5)

There is a big difference between these two teams in terms of DVOA, but the Bills have won two more games and whilst their offence is not setting the world alight, their defence is top ten by DVOA and they have clear found a knack for winning. I’m not sure they will definitely win this game, but I feel like this line is too high, partially because of how popular the Cowboys are and so I’m going to take the Bills to keep this game within a touchdown. It is hard to have too much faith in the Cowboys given their up and down season and I don’t trust their coaching staff, but I am looking forward to seeing the Bills and how they fare on the big stage.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Saints @ Falcons (+6.5)

Will the real Falcons please stand up? There was a mini recovery after the bye week for the Atlanta Falcons but that didn’t last into last week’s loss against the Buccaneers. However, the New Orleans Saints will be very motivated to get revenge after their surprise loss to the Falcons in week ten. This line make me nervous as I like the Saints to win as they are a much better team and will definitely be motivate, but divisional games are funny and I’m sure the Falcons are going to put forward their best effort. However, having just lost to the Bucs by thirteen points I can’t quite bring myself to back the Falcons in this one and I just hope I don’t’ regret that.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Week 9 Trivia

‘Well, the only thing that I needed in Week 12 with The Vikings on a bye, was to see the Packers come a cropper against the 49ers and as an early Christmas present it happened leaving The Vikes and the Cheeseheads tied on 8 a piece making for a very interesting final 5 weeks in the regular season and with them facing of in Minneapolis in Wk 16 divisional honours may revolve about that game..

I got to thinking though about what drives fans to pick a particular team. In the US a local preference will dictate many choices, it could be the colours or, radical I know, you may just like the style of play. But with the growth of the game in the UK I wondered if it may be the result of where people have holidayed. That may explain the Miami factor but looking at the crowds at the International series I think all 32 franchises, and more, are represented so I’m at a loss as to why backwater towns get a following.

I do remember visiting Chicago with Dan 11 years ago and took in a high scoring game at Soldier Field. The stadium and the experience generally was amazing but after the game we retreated to a sports bar in our hotel near Grant Park. Remember that only a quarter of Americans possess a passport those we met in that bar were amazed that two Brits were taking on an NFL road trip. I don’t think they realised how big the game was getting over here, let alone that it would be knocking on the door of its own franchise inside 10 – 15 years. Therein lies another question, If (when) there was a UK franchise would all the brits forsake their current teams in favour of the new kid on the block. Somehow I think not.

In trivia for week 12 I asked………

In the 1996 season, quarterback Brett Favre set an NFC record when he threw 39 touchdown passes in regular season play. Who was the previous record holder?

There are a number of great names it could have been and Dan Marino would have been as good as any, but remember I am a devious so and so and the answer was Brett Favre the previous year and such was his strength in a very competitive position.

So sadly no points this week leaving us on Gee 11 v Dan 14.

Right this week we roll into Houston and the problem is this:

In 2002 The Texans became only the 2nd expansion team to win its inaugural game. Against whom?

The only clue I will give is to do with matching time zones but I know that wont help them at all

See you next time.’

The Trading Game

23 Wednesday Oct 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Adam Thielen, Andy Dalton, Andy Reid, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Emmanuel Sanders, Frank Reich, Gardiner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jalen Ramsey, Joe Flacco, John Elway, Kansas City Chiefs, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Philadelphia Eagles

It’s been a long season as a fan of the Bengals, but there is still plenty of entertainment and good football to distract me so onward through week seven of the NFL.

What I Saw

The first game of week seven was a pretty underwhelming Thursday night game that saw the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Denver and beat a confusing Broncos team, breaking the Broncos’ two game winning streak, their own two game losing streak, and proving me wrong for yet another Thursday night game (currently 2-5 this season). What is even more impressive is the Chiefs did this despite Patrick Mahomes being forced out of the game in the second quarter having dislocated his patella during a quarterback sneak. The good news for the team is that the damage is such that he should be able to return with a brace in a few weeks and delay the surgery to the off-season. The even better news for this game was that the Chiefs’ defence was clearly tired of hearing how they couldn’t stop anyone as they held the Broncos to just over two hundred yards of total offence with seventy-one yards rushing on twenty-one carries and one hundred and thirty-four yards passing. whilst sacking Joe Flacco nine times. This was not the high-powered offence overcoming defensive frailties, but a sound team performance that demonstrates how good Andy Reid continues to be at building competitive teams. The Broncos meanwhile, do have problems and I’m not sure how trading away Emmanuel Sanders is going to help, but the real problem is John Elway’s continued inability to find a quarterback outside of signing Peyton Manning. Until Elway finds that franchise QC then a lot of the other problems on the roster will continue to be moot. The reputation that John Elway has in Denver means that even now there does not appear to be a huge amount of pressure on him, but at some point that has to change if the Broncos don’t improve.

The first Sunday game I enjoyed was a tight affair in the first half but the Minnesota Vikings continue to find their form and having soundly beat the Eagles last week, they traveled to Detroit and ran out 42-30 winners in week seven. It would seem that after a slow start the Vikings offence is beginning to find its feet with the new scheme and even losing Adam Thielen to a hamstring injury he picked up making a touchdown scoring catch in the first quarter didn’t slow them down as Kirk Cousins still threw for three hundred yards and four touchdowns to four different receivers. The Vikings defence also managed to limit the Lions’ offence enough that although Matthew Stafford threw for over three hundred and fifty yards himself (making him the fastest QB to forty thousand yards in NFL history), he also added in an interception to his four touchdowns and the Vikings looked pretty comfortable through the second half. I’ll be interested to see how the Vikings go the next few weeks, but if they can keep this balance on offence, that combined with the always tough Zimmer defence should make them a team no one wants to face. Meanwhile, the Lions seem to be able to play teams tough for a while, but they don’t seem to be clinical enough when it counts and with a 2-3-1 record, they need to start winning games and soon if they are going to compete for the playoffs.

I watched the next game because it was one of the most important games of the week in terms of its affect on the involved team’s playoff odds, but it was a one sided affair that saw the Dallas Cowboys run out easy 37-10 winners over the Philadelphia Eagles. It seemed like the Cowboys got a lot of injured players back at just the right time and the Eagles gave up costly turnovers on their opening two drives of the game that saw them fourteen points behind before their offence had even got into the opponents side of the field. If you compare the Eagles record with the Colts over the years since the Eagles won the Super Bowl you can see why some are suggesting that Frank Reich made a big difference for the Eagles when he was on their staff, but this is a team that is fighting injuries and just doesn’t look right. I absolutely thought they had one of the stronger rosters on the league, but there only so many cluster injuries any team can sustain. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have given themselves an edge in the NFC East and will be hoping they can build on it in the coming weeks.

The final game I watched, was the Bengals falling to 0-7 against the Jacksonville Jaguars and there’s not a lot to say. The Bengals are a bad team, the offensive line is a mess and Andy Dalton threw three interceptions trying to get the team back in the game but the team can’t run the ball or maintain drives. The defence is no better and I get to find out how bad it looks in person this weekend. The Jaguars are only a win back on the division lead, but they need to find some consistency as Gardiner Minshew needs to adjust now that teams have some tape of him, which in fairness is meant to take some time when you are a quarterback selected in the sixth round. The Jags will be hoping that the defence will be better through the removal of the disgruntaled Jalen Ramsey, but it is a very talented player to lose and we will have to see if the Jags can get into the race for the playoffs or falls out of the race in the next few weeks.

What I Heard

One of the big things that is being discussed at the moment is the number of trades we are seeing across the NFL, particularly as we approach next week’s trade deadline. There has been plenty of talk that given the Bengals position they should be looking to trade away some of their talent and get a jump start on the rebuild. There’s been no sign of that, but there has been plenty of movement, including a number of trades this week with the Seahawks grabbing safety Quandre Diggs from the Lions, the 49ers picking up Emmanuel Sanders from the Broncos, and the Patriots trading for Mohammed Sanu to try to improve their passing attack.

The most convincing explanation I’ve heard regarding this increasing number of tades is that the current generation of NFL GMs are much more transactional and prepared to take risks to improve their team than their risk averse forebears, particularly as if they don’t improve the team quickly there’s no guarantee they’ll get to fix the problem given how quickly a team will change GM.

The approach to talent acquisition was also the focus of a discussion between Peter King and LA Rams GM Les Snead who is deliberately chosing to trade for known quantity players rather than risking picking players in the first round of the draft. Now, that’s an interesting approach, and I keep hearing people saying that teams have the cap space to make more of these moves, but I’m not sure how the Rams will stay competitive given the contracts they have given out to Gurley and Goff, and will need to give to Ramsey unless their plan is to not have expensive first-round draft pick second contracts (that’s a mouthful) to pay. Only time will tell if their sums are right and the plan works, but it is reassuring that there is an overarching strategy – it doesn’t always feel that way and let’s just see if it works in the coming years.

What I Think

We are now getting to the point of the season where there are some teams who are really beginning to separate themselves. We have two unbeaten teams in the Patriots and 49ers alongside a further two teams with only one loss, which is really impressive of the New Orleans Saints who have won the five games that Teddy Bridgewater has started. A team that loses a Hall of Fame quarterback is not supposed to do that. Meanwhile the scary thing about the other one loss team is that Aaron Rodgers just posted his first, I’m still a dragon stat line of the season.

There are more competitive teams lurking in their divisions, including the Vikings who as I mentioned earlier, look to be coming together. The picks competition might be open to anyone, but there’s a gulf between our actual teams.

What I Know

The Bengals are 0-7, which makes going to see them on Sunday a slightly odd proposition – I was told firmly by Dan that I have to wear my AJ Green jersey but it feels odd when Green is still out injured and it seems highly unlikely that they will beat the Rams. After all, the Bengals are ranked thirty-first overall by DVOA, twenty places and 47.6% below the Rams, which is an even bigger gap than the 34.6% the Bengals are supposedly better than the Dolphins. At this rate both teams really could be 0-15 when they meet in week sixteen.

What I Hope

I’m hoping for a dry Sunday and an entertaining experience, and a better week picking games.

Quarterbacks: The Injured and The Young

18 Wednesday Sep 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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#TWFSafeties, Andrew Luck, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, Daniel Jones, Denver Broncos, Derek Carr, Detroit Lions, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, John Ross, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Miami Dolphins, Minkah Fitzpatrick, New England Patriots, New York Giants, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Sam Darnold, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Teddy Bridgewater, Tom Brady, Trevor Siemian, Tyler Boyd, Washington

One of the things that makes the NFL such a spectacle week to week is that each team only plays sixteen games so every one matters and a teams prospects can change really quickly as several teams saw this weekend. Even a team with the roster depth of the Philadelphia Eagles can get undermined if too many injuries cluster around the same position, but I’ll cover that when I write up their game in the section, so let’s get started.

What I Saw

The week two Thursday night game saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers break my Thursday night line picking rule and win on the road against a Carolina Panthers team who have now fallen to 0-2. It was not a great spectacle that even started off looking strange as thanks to the weather the broadcasters only had two camera angles available and further lightening problems saw the game paused until it cleared. Neither team really shone, but for the Buccaneers Jameis Winston played without throwing an interception and didn’t get the Buccaneers into trouble while Cam Newton continued to look nothing like himself. It’s hard to evaluate from the outside what is going on with his shoulder and foot problems, but he is not effective at the moment and as good as Christian MaCaffrey has looked, he cannot carry the team when they are struggling in the red zone and Cam is missing so many consecutive passes. A trip to Arizona might help get the Panthers get back to winning ways, but they have not made things easy for themselves.

The final important part of this game to mention was that it was my first safety of the season – now this is actually the third of the year and I need to cover them properly at some point – but yes I am still tracking them! In this one the Bucs were pinned back to the three yard line by the Panthers punt team, and on second and eleven Luke Kuechly burst through the line to tackle Peyton Barber in the end zone and prevent him from getting the whole ball back across the goal line.

It was a slightly light week of watching for me thanks to work and things going on at the weekend so I only got through half of the coaching tape from the week one game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants but it was enough for me to be impressed. The Cowboys might have started off slowly, but their offence is transformed with the kind of pre-snap motion you see all over the league as well as plays where running backs split out, line up as receivers and run routes, which the Patriots used very effectively last season. The added benefit of this offensive transformation is the way Dak Prescott is playing. There were two throws that impressed me with their precision and timing, but Prescott has also amassed six hundred and seventy-four yards with seven touchdowns and only one interception in his opening two games. Right now the Cowboys look like one of the better teams in the NFL and if they can stay healthy then this could be a very good year indeed for them indeed.

I have watched two games from Sunday and I will start with the painful one from my perspective, as the San Francisco 49ers beat the Cincinnati Bengals very convincingly 41-17. The 49ers managed this whilst not so much looking spectacular on offence as benefitting from some truly awful tackling from the Bengals defence who looked so good in week one. The pass rush still looks good dangerous and it could just be a blip, but in a home opener it was a pretty dispiriting performance. The Bengals’ offence didn’t do much better barring a couple of flash plays. There are receivers in the passing game with John Ross looking good for a second week in a row and Tyler Boyd leading the team in receiving yards, but two one-hundred-yard receivers could not produce consistently enough for the Bengals to keep them in the game. More injuries hampered the offensive line and for a second week in a row the run game never got started. More worryingly the Bengals’ next game sees them travel to an unbeaten Buffalo Bill’s team who might not finish as the class of the AFC at the end of the season but look setup to be a difficult team for anyone to face. I have a nasty feeling I’ll be writing about an 0-3 team next week.

The final game I saw was the Atlanta Hawks hosting and beating the Philadelphia Eagles in a highly entertaining 24-20 contest. The Eagles really struggled with injuries in this game losing multiple offensive players early and Carson Wentz missed a series with a rib injury. It was an entertaining game but at times there was sloppy quarterback play for both teams and five interceptions were thrown between Wentz and Matt Ryan. That said the Falcons did flash on offence several times and sealed the game with a beautiful fourth and three play that saw the left tackle Jake Matthews get down field and block a poor DB to spring Julio Jones for fifty-four yards and the winning touchdown.

What I Heard

There has been much discussion of quarterbacks with two of the elite tier going down injured and the announcement finally coming that Eli Manning will be benched for Daniel Jones. Unusually, Sam Darnold did not even make the start of the week two game having been ruled out with mononucleosis, but has been cleared to return to the facility and is aiming for a week five return. What state the team will be in by then is anyone’s guess as poor Trevor Siemian was lost for the season to an ankle early in the game. The former Denver Broncos quarterback has played well when healthy but was not able to stay that way in Denver and on a one year deal this is pretty much the worse case for him.

The Cleveland Browns did what they should have done and won 23-3 but they are still sloppy. You also have to wonder about the game management when a running back comes out of the medical tent after a concussion check and gets thrown back into the game despite it being the fourth quarter with the game well and truly in hand.

What I Think

Whilst picking games on Sunday I mentioned that there would be more 1-1 teams than 2-0 or 0-2 teams, which is my way of reminding myself that we can’t take too much as set in stone from one game for each team. Unfortunately, I promptly forgot that as I actually made my selections and that partially accounts for me having such a poor week, but it also feels like that the ratio of records is different than in previous years. What I ought to do is go look at the numbers, but it’s my birthday tomorrow so things are a little all over the place and I don’t have time today, but I might well have a look at some point.

What I can tell you is that there are nine teams that have gone 2-0 to keep an unbeaten record and matching nine who have lost both of their games. Thanks to the Detroit Lions’ tie with the Arizona Cardinals we have a team with a 1-0-1 record and a corresponding 0-1-1 record while twelve teams have gone 1-1.

The teams that are really in trouble are those like Washington who have lost two divisional games already and the Pittsburgh Steelers who have lost both games and their starting quarterback. The New Orleans Saints have also lost a starting quarterback and will need Teddy Bridgwater to play well if they hope to keep themselves in contention until Drew Brees can return form surgery on his torn thumb ligament. There are some teams that may well right themselves from a solitary loss but I’m finding it hard to see turn arounds for the 0-2 teams which is a worry. The Steelers have tried to strengthen this year’s team despite Roethlisberger being done for the season with his elbow injury by trading next year’s first round pick for Dolphins safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, which is a brave move and if any team can turn it round it might be the Steelers but the defence needs to come together as well as the offence.

What I Know

This is going to be one of those ones that is going to haunt me for a while, as I know that Lamar Jackson is really good and he is going to torture my Bengals for a long time. He is rapidly becoming one of my favourites of the young quarterbacks and we are beginning to amass quite a list: Patrick Mahomes (who somehow is possibly playing better this year), Jackson, Jarred Goff who has been to a Super Bowl, Josh Allen has got the Bills to 2-0 whilst Kyler Murray has already show flashes in a couple of games. I may not be too keen on the way Baker Mayfield conducts himself at times but he was good enough to give the Browns hope whilst Sam Darnold has shown flashes and people were excited by Daniel Jones in pre-season despite him being picked too high. Still, I haven’t had to work hard to find this quarterbacks, and whilst I’m certainly not wish the end of the careers of the likes of Brees, Brady (the Patriots were scary good again on both offence and defence), or Roethlisberger – the quarterbacks that follow them are suddenly looking a lot better than it was only a couple of years ago despite the retirement of Andrew Luck and the stalling of careers like Derek Carr. I’ll finish by saying that Dak Prescott has looked really good through two games so one to keep an eye on as he approaches getting his second contact.

What I Hope

I want the Dolphins to do something in week three that brings Dan joy and the Bengals surprise us all with a win up in Buffalo. Failing that, I hope the Ravens @ Chiefs lives up to the expectations I have them because I think this has the potential to be the best game we’ve seen yet.

The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

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