The Fourth Quarter of the Season

09 Wednesday Dec 2020

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Arizona Cardinals, Brandon Aiyuk, Brian Flores, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Colt McCoy, Covid-19, Gregg Williams, Joe Judge, Josh Allen, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, Nick Mullens, Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks, Trevor Lawrence, Tyler Boyd, Wayne Gallman, Zac Taylor

Well, it is slightly odd that the Baltimore Ravens have finished two games since last week’s post and I am sure that it is a relief to get back to winning ways as they try move on from the Covid-19 outbreak and drag themselves back into playoff contention. The games are coming think and fast as the last week thirteen game took place last night and we have a Thursday night game tomorrow with what looks to be a good matchup of the New England Patriots visiting the LA Rams.

So before we get too distracted by week fourteen let’s cast our eyes back over the previous week as the last quarter of the season starts tomorrow.

What I Saw

Week thirteen started on Sunday and the first game I watched was the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Miami Dolphins in what was very much a game of two halves that the Dolphins ultimately won 19-7. Perhaps the most surprising thing was that the Bengals went into half time with a 7-6 lead that was built off the back of a seventy-two-yard touchdown catch where most of the work was done by Tyler Boyd and this single play was not only not all the points the Bengals would score, but represented 37% of their passing yards for the day, which rises into 46% of passing production once you figure in the thirty-seven yards they lost on six sacks. This was also a surprisingly chippy game between the two teams with multiple ejections, but I can’t help but feel that as much as Dan thought that Brian Flores had read the riot act to the team at half-time, I think Flore might actually have channelled his inner Alex Ferguson and simply left it to, ‘Lads, it’s the Bengals,’ and left. The Dolphins look to be maintaining their push for the play-offs and I’m genuinely looking forward to seeing how they will hold up against the Chiefs next week. As for the Bengals, I think there needs to something more radical than a high pick offensive lineman to sort this mess out, but I don’t know if we’re going to get it even though this is the fifth straight losing season and I see no evidence that Zac Taylor is going to add to his current total of four career wins this season.

I then jumped into the late Sunday games to watch the New York Giants play the Seattle Seahawks in a low scoring but interesting game that at halftime saw the Seahawks lead 5-0 but ultimately, they would lose 17-12. The Giants deserve full credit for this road win as their defence did an impressive job of containing Russell Wilson, whilst a career day that saw Wayne Gallman rush for over one-hundred-yards for the first time in his NFL carreer helped the Giants’ offence to score enough points in the third quarter to take and keep the lead. The Giants are a flawed team, but they still won this game with journeyman backup Colt McCoy barely passing one-hundred passing yards and I think they have found something in Joe Judge. Only time will tell if he can build the Giants back into a franchise that wins regularly and I still have questions about Jason Garrett as an offensive coordinator, but Judge has already proved he is willing to get involved having made a change in the offensive line room when he wasn’t happy with the performance there so I am looking forward to seeing how they develop in the coming years. As for the Seahawks, this game is a setback and they have lost four out of their seven games since their week six bye, but their fate is very much still in their own hands, although they will need to find some consistent form from somewhere with Washington, the Rams and 49ers on the schedule after the Jets next week.

The last game I watched from week thirteen was the Buffalo Bills playing the San Francisco 49ers at their temporary home in Glendale Arizona. It’s interesting to see a division rival open up their stadium for the 49ers, particularly as the Cardinals are hosting the 49ers on Boxing day so the 49ers will be pretty used to the environment by that point. However, this was the first game of the three the 49ers will play in Arizona this year and it started with the Bills driving all the way to the 49ers one-yard line before a failed fourth and one saw the 49ers takeover on downs and drive all the way to the Bills one-yard line, before they too failed to score. Things took a further strange turn when a bad snap saw the Bills immediately turn the ball over straight back to the 49ers, but after two failures from the three yard line, the 49ers’ backup quarterback Nick Mullens (starting his sixth game of the season) threw a short pass to Brandon Aiyuk to finally open the scoring in the last minute of the first quarter. However, the Bills struck back with seventeen straight points of their own to take a lead they never relinquished through the rest of the game. Given all the things that the 49ers have had to deal with this season it is actually a credit to the 49ers that they have been as competitive as they have this season. Meanwhile, this was a return to form for Josh Allen who made some ridiculous throws in this game as the Bills maintained their lead over the chasing Dolphins in the AFC East. It feels like the competition for that divisions going to run to the final week, which could get interesting given the Bills are hosting the Dolphins in week seventeen.

What I Heard

There has been plenty of discussion about coaching this week, particularly in relation to Gregg Williams’ strange call of a cover-0 blitz whilst his defence was trying to protect a lead with seconds left on the clock. There is no defending the decision, which led to the Raiders’ game winning touchdown and cost Williams his job when he was fired on Monday. As much as losing may well help the Jets in the long run as they continue to be in pole position to draft Trevor Lawrence, there is no way Williams made that play call with the draft in mind. This staff surely must know they will be looking for jobs in the new year and no one wants a season like the 2020 Jets on their record so if you hear people suggesting the loss was deliberate, do not take them seriously.

What I Think

There is not time to do a full examination of the problems at the Jets, but clearly there are not many problems being fixed this season. A young quarterback is a good place to start in theory for a franchise, but as I can attest from a fan’s perspective, it is not a magic panacea for all of a franchise’s ills and it’s not like the Jets don’t already have a numebr three overall pick playing quarterback in Sam Darnold. It is also not often that a team that has consistently lost in recent seasons can just turn it around with the addition of a promising young quarterback, just look at the actual number of wins that the Chargers or Bengals have this season.

What I Know

In this strange period where time is both dragging on and slipping through our fingers, we are starting the last quarter of the season with the Bengals absolutely out of the play-off but possibly in position to bag a really good offensive line player if there is one worthy of that high a draft pick. We know that the New Orleans saints and Kansas City Chiefs have already booked their place in the playoffs and that once again the ’72 Dolphins have cracked open their celebratory champagne as they remain for another year the only ever unbeaten NFL team.

What I Hope

This week has been a long one already so what I am really hoping for is some good contests and that the Dolphins keep pushing for the play-offs. One of the TWF teams has to do well this season and it certainly isn’t going to be the Bengals.

Another week where I pick up three games on Dan in the picks competition would be nice too…

The Second Wave Hits the NFL

02 Wednesday Dec 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Adrian Peterson, Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Bill O'Brien, Bob Quinn, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Covid-19, Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, Daniel Jones, Denver Broncos, Derek Henry, Deshaun Watson, Detroit Lions, Ezekiel Elliott, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jeff Driskel, Jerry Jones, Jim Caldwell, JJ Watt, Joe Burrow, Joe Judge, Kendall Hinton, Marvin Lewis, Matt Patricia, Mike Brown, Mike McCarthy, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, NFC East, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ron Rivera, Tennessee Titans, Thanksgiving Football, Vic Fangio, Washington Football Team

Against a backdrop of second waves of Covid-19 across Europe and the United States it is not a surprise that there has been an increased affect on the NFL in recent weeks that means that I’m writing the week twelve summary post with one game left to finish as I put this post live. The Baltimore Ravens have become the second team to have a facility-based outbreak of Covid-19 and so for reasons of medical safety as much as anything the Ravens take on the Steelers on a Wednesday afternoon nearly a week after it was initially scheduled to play. I will mention the other team who had a serious Covid-19 issue later, but while the cracks are showing in the NFL’s strategy, it is holding up so far and it is clear the league are now determined to keep to their weekly schedules even if they are moving individual games around.

Still, let us start with the games I have seen before we get to the details of the schedule changes that stretch into week thirteen.

What I Saw

A slightly underwhelming pair of Thanksgiving games which saw two forty point blowouts started with the Houston Texans beating the Detroit Lions 41-25. The Lions actually moved the ball well on their opening drive and scored a touchdown to take an early lead. However, the Texans quickly answered with a pick-six touchdown from JJ Watt before the offence got in on the act with a touchdown of their own. The Lions got a second rushing touchdown from Adrian Peterson to give them their last lead of the game as the Texans soon scored another touchdown and hardly looked back. I’ve heard Greg Cosell talking about how well Deshaun Watson has been playing for a number of weeks so it was nice for him to get to demonstrate this on a national stage, but the truth is that this was not a competitive game. The Lions took what seemed like the inevitable step of firing GM Bob Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia after this latest loss and will be looking to start over again as the rebuild with Quinn and Patriicia after the firing of Jim Caldwell produced worse results. This game featured two tweams who started the season with former Bill Belichick coordinators as head coaches, but while Bill O’Brien’s actions as GM of the Texans let himself down despite a good record as head coach, from the outside it looks like Patricia’s attempt to recreate Belichick’s formula rather than create his own was his downfall. This is a pattern we have seen before with the Belichick coaching tree, and stands in contrast to the success that Brian Flores is having with Miami, but it will be interesting to see in what direction both of these franchises head come the off-season.

The second Thanksgiving game saw the Washington Football Team go to Dallas and beat the Cowboys 41-16. There have been problems with the Cowboys’ defence all season, but the offence’s struggles in this game at least could be explained as the pair of alternative tackles that were starting their second game for the Cowboys both went out injured early, reducing them to third string tackles. Throw in a poor day and a fumble from Ezekiel Elliott and it’s easy to see how this game got away. It’s not as if Ron Rivera had an easy task turning around the Football Team to start with, but his coaching through cancer treatment is frankly remarkable, and his team are playing tough football and looks to be heading in the right direction. Alex Smith is not a long term answer at quarterback but there is already talk of him coming back next season, whilst rookie running back Antonio Gibson looks to be establishing himself and finished this game with over a hundred yards rushing and three touchdowns. With the injuries on the offensive line and to Dak Prescott there is some cover for Mike McCarthy’s difficult first season, but the Cowboys are probably still under-performing in a very winnable NFC East and it is the defensive side of the ball that would worry me if I was Jerry Jones. It wouldn’t take much to get the Cowboys back in the race for the division, but even if they do drag themselves back into contention there’s going to be some serious decisions to be made in the off-season.

Continuing the theme of the NFC East, the New York Giants took a share of the division lead with their 19-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. This was more of a contest than I was expecting, with the Bengals defence stepping up to an extent but the offence was only able to generate a total of one hundred and fifty-five yards of total offence and the one touchdown drive took place late in the game against a Giants playing a prevent defence. In truth, the Giants were in control for the majority of the game, had the ball for more time and I like where their defence is headed even if the offence has its limitations with Daniel Jones at quarterback. I worry what the Bengals long term prospect are, even with Joe Burrow who is a phenomenal talented young quarterback, but Zac Taylor has not convinced me with his total of four career wins and the ugly truth is that the Bengals have not had a winning season since 2015. It feels right now like my mindset as a fan has to be a lot more like the pre-Marvin Lewis Days and I find that deeply concerning. I would love to be proved wrong, but right now I feel better about how the Giants are shaping up under first year head coach Joe Judge (and there is no shortage of questions there) than how the Bengals are building. I truly hope I am proved wrong next year and it always used to be said that you shouldn’t judge a coach until their third year. These days teams are a lot quicker to judge (except ironically the Lions) but as old school as Bengals’ owner Mike Brown is, I wonder how long he will put up with the Bengals losing now they have a franchise quarterback.

The final game I watched in it’s entirety this week was the Tennessee Titans return trip to face the Indianapolis Colts that was another forty point blow out (there have been five so far in week twelve) where the Titans won 45-26. The downfall for the Colts was that their top ten defence by DVOA, that had only given up three one-hundred yard plus rushing games going into Sunday, allowing over a hundred in the first half as the Titans amassed a total of two hundred and twenty-nine yards rushing, with one hundred and seventy-eight of them coming from Derick Henry. This efficiency on the ground let the Titans keep the game script how they wanted and they quite literally ran out easy winners. There’s still a little over of the quarter of the season to go, but after a bit of a wobble the Titans have won their last two games to take sole position of the AFC South as they prepare to host the Cleveland Browns next week. The Colts are only a game back from the Titans and are solid football team so I expect these two to be neck and neck going forward unless there is a significant change to either teams roster, which is even more possible than usual this season with Covid-19 stalking teams as well as the more traditional injuries that an NFL team face throughout a season.

What I Heard

I wanted to step away from podcast topics this week to go straight to the head coach of the Denver Broncos after they were forced to play against the New Orleans Saints on Sudnay without any one of the four quarterback on their roster being available.

The reason this happened was fairly straight forward, third string quarterback Jeff Driskel tested positive for Covid-19, which is not so unusual this season. However, all four Broncos’ quarterbacks on the team/practise squad held their own workout on Tuesday and broke the protocols enough to be deemed close contacts of Driskell. This was discovered late enough in the week that none of them had five days to register clear tests ahead of Sunday and be available to play. In fact, the news broke so late that the Broncos only had a few hours to prepare a practice squad receiver Kendall Hinton, who had played some quarterback in college, to start Sunday’s game. It is unsurprising that he only completed one of his nine passes whilst throwing two interceptions.

If there is a positive to come out of this situation, I would say it is the way Fangio handled the discussion after the game stating that he was disappointed in the players for putting the team and the league in this position, but also owning up that he had obviously hadn’t done a good enough job of selling the protocols to them, when they are on their own.

You can see him talk about this and get a snippet of Kendall Hinton discussing the game here.

What I Think

It’s seems pretty clear that the NFL are very focussed on sticking to their schedule of games in a week, even if specific games do get moved about, but at this point they are doing that for medical reasons and not those of competitive balance. The Ravens got moved because they had an outbreak and then delayed an extra day so the players could have some form of in-person workout before playing.

The Broncos however, despite asking for a delay were not granted one because although at a competitive disadvantage, were able to field a team safely from a medical point of view on Sunday.

This week the teams were only allowed to operate virtually on Monday and Tuesday because of concerns over people having out of town visitors for Thanksgiving, and against a background of a second wave of Covid-19 building as we go from autumn into winter the NFL is concerned about getting to the end of its season at it’s usual pace, trying to minimise medical issues, but not worrying about competitive balance to their usual degree.

Given that teams have been fined millions of dollars and a draft pick so far over Covid-19 protocol violations, and still teams like the Raiders have been repeat offenders, perhaps the example of the Broncos playing without a recognised quarterback will sharpen people’s focusses. I remember questioning whether entire position groups going down would delay games early in the season, and now to an extent we have our answer. Unless there is in-facility transmission the answer appears to be no, you are going to have to find a way to cope.

What I Know

I knew it was going to be an odd season, but it somehow feels like it has been going on for months and yet I still can’t quite believe that we are nearly three quarters of the way through the regular season. For all that there were problems in week twelve and as a consequence we have another Wednesday game in week thirteen, I think that if you had told the NFL that they wouldn’t have lost any games by the start of week thirteen, they would definitely have taken it.

What I Hope

It feels more relevant than ever with how the world is to hope that the NFL gets through this pandemic season with no one catching a life changing version of Covid-19. Yes, I hope the league makes it through the season, and I am grateful for football as I always am, but if we learned anything from this week it is how important following protocols are for protecting yourself from Covid-19. Whatever that means for you, I hope you stay safe. With vaccines on the horizon if we can hold things together for a few more months then there is a real chance we can get back to a lot of things we are missing, even if the world will still be a different place.

We owe it to ourselves and all we’ve lost to learn from this experience, and I hope that as we can get back into the world that we do a little better with it and each other. That feels like something worth holding on to as we head into the depths of winter.

Grateful for What You can Rely On

25 Wednesday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Alex Smith, Andrew Whitworth, Andy Reid, Antonio Brown, Arizona Cardinals, Brandon Allen, Carlos Dunlap, Carlos Hyde, Cincinnati Bengals, Covid-19, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Kansas City Chiefs, Kyler Murray, LA Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, NFC East, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Pittsburgh Steelers, Podcast, Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tom Brady, Travis Kelce, Washington Football Team

It feels like 2020 as a year has emphasised how important it is to be able to rely on different parts of our lives, and I’m sure that those working in the NFL feel no different, so as we approach the US holiday of Thanksgiving it feels more important than ever to think about the things we are grateful for in our lives.

I have been enjoying recording a podcast again, even if we have been a little more sporadic than we would have liked coming into the season, but thankfully the missed weeks were not for any serious reasons. I have had enough of those through the year and as odd as it still is to be missing part of the team I am used to have working on this site, it has been so good to speak to my friend Dan nearly every week, both on the pod and around recording. The dynasty league is also getting to the business end of the season, and the teams’ records are closing nicely to keep things competitive to the end. I’m grateful for a relatively smooth-running league given it is my first season as a commissioner and the disruption that Covid-19 threatened early in the season.

What I Saw

The first of the week eleven games saw the Seattle Seahawks tweak some of their game plan as they hosted the Arizona Cardinals in a divisional game, that the Seahawks ultimately won 28-12. Part of the Seahawks plan was to re-balance the offence with the return of running back Carlos Hyde from injury allowing Russell Wilson to make a more reasonable twenty-eight pass attempts as opposed to the fifty he had when these teams faced each other earlier in the season. The Seahawks’ defence also seemed to have a better plan for containing the Cardinals and Kyler Murray, with the Cardinals quarterback only rushing for fifteen yards in this game. I’m not sure that the addition of Carlos Dunlap was the entire answer, but with three QB hits and two sacks it certainly helped, although I suspect it will always be odd for me to watch the long time Bengal play in a number forty-three jersey after his decade in orange and black wearing ninety-six. The NFC West continues to be fearsomely competitive, and I think the Seahawks could well be mounting another run on the play-offs. I’m not panicking about the Cardinals as their destiny is still in their hands, but playing the Rams twice will be the very opposite of facing the NFC East teams still on their schedule.

Moving on to Sunday and the early game I watched was the heart-breaking loss of the Cincinnati Bengals to the Washington Football Team. It was horrible to watch for obvious injury related reasons, but the first half was frustrating as the Bengals generated plenty of yardage but could not score points and so only took a 9-7 lead into half time. It was painfully obvious just how many offensive line problems Joe Burrow was covering up by getting the ball out as the Bengals just couldn’t move the ball without him. My resolve to watch every snap is going to be tested over the next six games as I’m really not sure what there is to be taken from these games, and I am not at all convinced by this coaching staff. As for the Football Team, they did what they needed to win in the second half, and it is still a source of joy to see Alex Smith back on the field. I really don’t want to call who will emerge from the NFC East to host a play-off game, but you cannot count anyone out of it now all four teams have three wins, so it seems there could be many twists and turns to come.

The last Sunday game I watched was the Las Vegas Raiders hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, who went into the game coming of their bye, a situation that Andy Reid’s teams were 18-3 in before Sunday and now stand at 19-3. It was a back and forth game with the Raiders all the way through, but Patrick Mahomes is just behind the tax man and death for inevitability, and led the Chiefs to their final touchdown score with a pass to Travis Kelce to put the game away 35-31 with twenty-seconds on the clock. This drive followed on from Derek Carr giving the Raiders the lead a little over a minute earlier with his own touchdown drive that ended with a pass to a tight-end. The Raiders are a serious team this season, whose defence has risen to the lofty heights of a twenty-fourth ranking by DVOA, and whilst it still looks like the Cheifs and the Steelers are the best of the AFC if not the NFL, I am sure no one would look forward to facing the Raiders with the way they are playing at the moment.

The final game I saw was the Monday night contest between the LA Rams visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneer, which was another back an forth game that saw both teams trade score, but the Bucs only took the lead once and were eventually defeated 27-24. This game did not go how I was expecting, and as much as Tom Brady struggled again and threw a couple of bad interceptions, it was the fact that the Buccaneers could not disrupt Jared Goff and the Rams offence even with veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth missing through injury. A couple of weeks ago it felt like the Buccaneers were shaping into one of the best teams in the NFL, but they seem to have fallen back in the last few weeks. This dip does seem to coincide with the signing of Antonio Brown but it might not be that, and those of us outside the franchise can’t truly know. I am still inclined to think this is the growing pains of a team still assimilating a lot of new players without a proper off-season programme, but they are running out of weeks to get everyone on the same page ahead of the play-offs. There should still be time, but I do not feel as confident that they will pull this off as I did only a couple of weeks ago. The Rams meanwhile continue to compete and whilst there are going to be questions regarding Jared Goff in the big game until he repeatedly proves people wrong, he still does enough to win more often than not and has already played in one Super Bowl for Rams. I am not sure he can live up to his contract, but I think the criticism of him often goes too far the other way and I expect the Rams to be there or there abouts come the sharp end of the season.

What I Heard

There has been a lot of talk about the Joe Burrow injury, with lots of people pointing out how often he had been hit this season and everyone agreeing what a blow it was. As a fan the tweet is still pretty heart breaking, even with the positive attitude:

Thanks for all the love. Can’t get rid of me that easy. See ya next year✊
— Joey Burrow (@JoeyB) November 22, 2020

I’ve heard positive things from medical commentators that he should come back as good next season, and I just hope the Bengals have an improved situation for him to work with.

Still, hearing Alex Smith on Peter King’s podcast was an even greater comeback and as much as the loss was painful, there’s not another quarterback I’d rather lose to than Smith after all he went through to get back on the field.

It’s a timely reminder of the lengths these highly talented athletes go through to have a career and the risks they are taking even before you take Covid-19 into account.

What I Think

The fates appear to have been listening to Dan and mine’s conversation on Tuesday regarding Covid-19 and the NFL’s commitment to getting the season done as demonstrated by its upping of all teams to the intensive protocol. We mentioned the Raiders issues last week that still saw them play the Chiefs this Sunday, and mentioned that the Ravens were already operating virtually after some positive tests.

In a move that I think Dan is taking as a deliberate pre-empting of the podcast release tomorrow, the Baltimore Ravens game against the Steelers in Pittsburgh has been put back to Sunday. In the context of how the protocols are running it makes perfect sense as this gives the Ravens enough days that they can get five clear days of tests for those close contacts to the positive tests, and as long they don’t get an escalating situation that we’ve not seen since the Titans outbreak earlier in the season, then it seems likely the game will take place on Sunday.

I really wasn’t sure when the season started whether that the NFL was going to get to the end of the season, and I certainly expected them to have to run late, but in fairness the league and franchises (including all players and staff) are currently on schedule with no lost of games yet, and there are contingencies if the worsening situation should affect teams and the schedule more dramatically. The real world test of all of this is continuing to escalate, but on then league’s own terms it is a case of so far so good.

What I Know

If the trues wisdom is knowing that you know nothing, then the 2020 season has been a very apt demonstration of it.

I feel like you can trust perhaps two and a half teams to win regularly at the moment, and then there is a large number of teams that win or lose games when you are least expecting it. Let’s not even start on the mess that is the NFC East where all four teams have a riotous three wins and a shot at the play-offs.

There’s always a large element of randomness in the short NFL season, but that has never been clearer than in this Covid affected season with its absence of proper off-season, expanded practice squads, more relaxed IR rules, and varying Covid-19 protocols. All that said, whoever does eventually win the Super Bowl, if and when it has been played, will have truly earned a championship.

What I Hope

This week I hope to be proved wrong, and that the Bengals give us something to enjoy. I’ll take Bandon Allen starting and helping this team develop in Burrow’s absence.

Of course I will be hoping for a full and swift recovery for Burrow as well, but I can’t write that every in post from now until next season so let’s just take it as read.

Get well Joe.

As for the rest of you, look at the things you are grateful and tell the people responsible thank you. I think we could all stand to hear that at the moment.

As Seasons Turn

28 Wednesday Oct 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Arizona Cardinals, Baker Mayfield, Baltimore Ravens, Budda Baker, Carlos Dunlap, Carson Wentz, Chase Claypool, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Covid-19, Daniel Jones, Derek Henry, Devin Bush, DK Metcalf, Joe Burrow, New York Giants, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Trade Deadline, Tua Tagovailoa

The NFL season feels as if is nearing the turn. We are looking at the week eight games coming up, the trade deadline is next Tuesday when the US goes to the polls (although many have already voted) and after week nine all teams will have played half of their sixteen games. It might simply be because the clocks have just gone back in the UK, but it feels as like we are properly into the autumn now, but I don’t want to wish away the year so let’s take a look at what happened in the week seven games.

What I Saw

The week seven Thursday night game was a slightly odd spectacle that saw the New York Giants fall behind the Eagles as the team from Philadelphia marched on their opening drive of the game to score a touchdown, then work their way back to take a 21-10 lead with under ten minutes left on the clock, but the Giants ultimately lost 21-22. The big talking point out of this game was Daniel Jones running for eighty yards and tripping over with no one near him only eight yards from the end zone. However, it is perhaps the play of Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz that is the most significant for the rest of the season. As I mentioned earlier, the Eagles moved the ball smartly on their opening drive, but after this initial six and a half minutes or so, Wentz looked like he was broken, trying to do to much rather than throw the ball away as the offence really struggled. Now with the injuries on the offensive line and at the skills positions there are some valid reasons for this, but it’s the stark disparity between this bad football and then Wentz finding his way in the fourth quarter to lead his team back that is confusing. Wentz finished the game with three-hundred and fifty-nine passing yards and two touchdowns to go with his interception, but he needs to find a way to lessen the lows to give his team a better chance of winning each week. Even with all their injuries the Eagles probably look best placed to win an NFC East division where all the teams are struggling, but if they can beat the Cowboys in the Sunday night game then their week nine bye could be the very real moment where they can try to get some players back healthy. Meanwhile, for all the Giants’ struggles this season, they have kept the last three games close and beaten the Washington Football Team in the process, but this week’s game against the Buccaneers is going to be a very different level of test.

The pick of the games when I checked the schedule for week seven was the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the unbeaten Tennessee Titans and ultimately winning out 27-24. The Steelers built a commanding 24-7 lead in the first half and was able to hold on for the win despite a strong comeback from the Titans in the second half. That said, the Steelers continue to show great balance in all three phases of the game, and even if their offence did slip out of the top ten by DVOA this week, they have a number of good young receivers that meant that with the Titan’s focussing on rookie sensation Chase Claypool they still were able to amass two hundred and fifty yards of passing offence. The defence looks to have coped despite the loss of linebacker Devin Bush and whilst the loss doesn’t change my mind about the Titans, you can definitely see why the Steelers are the sole unbeaten team in the NFL right now, but their schedule doesn’t get any easier this week as they take on the rested Ravens.

The Cleveland Browns played and entertaining game with the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that was decided by who had the ball last as neither defences were able to consistently stop each other. It was Baker Mayfield who was able to drive the Browns seventy-five yards in under a minute to seal the game 37-34 with a touchdown pass to Donovan Peoples-Jones. Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow continues to impress for the Bengals and threw for over four hundred yards this week, but a promising set of receivers does not a winning offence make and with continued issues on the offensive line as well as the defense we know what the Bengals are this season. There are some who think that this is okay as another poor record will secure the Bengals another high draft pick to build the team with, but there have been problems on the o-line and defence for too long now for me to be certain that the current regime can succeed in that endeavour. The Browns continue to make me think that they are on the right track, and even if Baker Mayfield is not the long term at quarterback, a 5-2 record is not to be sneezed at and this is not your usual 2.0 version of the Browns that have only made the play-offs once in the twenty-two seasons since the franchise returned in 1999.

The final game I saw this weekend was the rip-roaring game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks that saw the Cardinals manage to kick the game winning field goal in overtime on the second attempt having handed the ball back to the Seahawks on second down the previous drive after their first game winning attempt was missed. For all that there were some questionable decisions late in the game, this was a highly entertaining matchup where the defensive play of the contest was made by Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf chased Cardinals Safety Budda Baker down after he intercepted a Russell Wilson pass and ran it the length of the field, expecting to get the touchdown when Metcalf not only made up the yards to catch Baker but then made a great tackle. It was a game turning play because even if the Seahawks ultimately lost, they stopped the Cardinals from scoring in the following drive and then marched the ball down the field to score themselves and in this close a contest that really mattered. However, the three interceptions Wilson threw meant his continued production was not enough for the Seahawks to win the game this time. The NFC West is a monster of a division in 2020, with all four teams having winning records and if this game is anything to go by, there will be plenty more great divisional games to come during the rest of the season.

What I Heard

There has been lots of discussion about the trade deadline next week, not least because the salary cap is going to come down significantly next season thanks to the revenue drop from not having full stadiums. Already we have had some players moving including a disgruntled Carlos Dunlap heading from the Bengals where he is their all time sack leader to a Seahawks team who desperately need some pass rush.

It feels like because of the complexities of football the possible upsides from such trades is unlikely to match the fan excitement, but I do wonder if we will see more action because of the effects of Covid-19 and we have all ready seen teams signing veterans to the practice squad so they can get a longer look at them and get the player acclimatise before they have to carry them on the roster. The best teams are always looking to make best use of the rules they can so we have to see if someone can make a material improvement to how their team looks.

What I Hope

With the Bengals are hosting the Titans this weeken,d I fear for our run defence against Derrek Henry so I mainly hope we can keep the game competitive and Burrow healthy.

What I am really excited about is the chance to watch Tua Tagovailoa make his first start for the Dolphins against the Rams, and I just hope the bold prediction Dan forced me to make on the pod doesn’t coincide with something bad happening to Tua.

Who Needs a Schedule Anyway?

15 Thursday Oct 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Andrew Whitworth, Andy Dalton, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Christian McCaffrey, Cincinnati Bengals, Covid-19, Dak Prescott, Dan Quinn, Jamel Dean, Jim Turner, Joe Burrow, Kansas City Chiefs, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Matt Rhule, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, Sean McVay, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Thomas Dimitroff, Tom Brady, TWF NFL Dynasty League, Zac Taylor

Well ,week five finished with an unexpected result that I called wrong in the picks competition, which is becoming a worrying trend, but at least the Titans are back playing games and the NFL looks like it can keep to its scheduling plan for now. Meanwhile, the Bills after facing two scenarios about who they were playing have to move on quickly as they face the Chiefs on Monday night.

That said, I feel all over the place with the site at the moment, and having spent a chunk of time yesterday dealing with how our dynasty league would managed the waiver wire this week given that we were still locked in week five, I delayed this post by a day as there is no competition Thursday this week as we have no Thursday night game.

So let’s take a look at what happened in week five.

What I Saw

The week five Thursday night game was a ragged affair that I still found entertaining thanks to the two good defences on display, but it was frustrating to get my pick wrong as my assessment of the Buccaneers ability was fairly spot on but it was their indiscipline on offence that cost the Bucs this game. The Bucs actually went up by ten points in the first quarter of the game as the Bears struggled to move the ball consistently but kept themselves in touch thanks to their defence. The Bucs finished this game with three-hundred and thirty-nine yards of offence, ninety-six yards more than the Bears were able to generate but the Bucs also were flagged eleven times for a loss of one hundred and nine yards. This was forty-three more yards in penalties than the Bears and the combination of penalties and the Bears defence meant that after the first quarter the Bucs were only able to kick field goals for the rest of the game. That said, despite being streaky, Nick Foles managed to complete more passes that Tom Brady, even with Bucs corner Jamel Dean seeming to wage a one-person battle on the Bears’ passing attack at the end of the game. The Bears were able to do enough on offence against a Bucs defence that was regularly getting pressure to eek out a one point lead at the end of the game, but with how tight the game was the key play might have been when Bucs’ running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn caught a short pass and fumbled the ball setting up the Bears offence with a short field and that led to their second and last touchdown of the game in a crucial burst of point scoring in the second quarter. This is a game that I feel the Bucs really could have and probably should have won, but they need to clean up the penalties if they are to reach their potential. Meanwhile, if the Bears can keep getting enough production from Nick Foles on offence then their defence is good enough that they will keep winning games even if they likely won’t maintain their current twelve win pace or compete with the best teams in the NFL.

I don’t want to spend too much time on the Bengals this week as they were very poor, but the problem remains the offensive line and I’m now getting really worried about Joe Burrow operating behind it. In fact, I have a wider concern, Zac Taylor is a young head coach, hired due to his relationship with Sean McVay and the Bengals stressed how much they committed to his plan with rearrangements of both the practice facilities and offices, as well as hiring Taylor the largest staff they have ever had, but the offensive line is a good representation of my wider worry. Taylor’s choice of Jim Turner as o-line coach didn’t sit well with me from the start. Turner not only tolerated the bullying in his position group whilst at the Dolphins, but the investigation into the resulting scandal implicated him in taking part. Not content with this, when he returned to Texas A&M he was involved in another scandal involving inappropriate jokes at a football clinic for women. It’s one thing for a person to make a mistake and learn from it, but I have no patience for bullies or people who clearly have no interest in reforming their ways. The o-line has been a problem since Andrew Whitworth was let go, and the lead in to last season was undeniably tough with injuries and retirements, but it doesn’t feel like anything is changing or that players are developing and if the head coach can’t see this then I have to wonder about their judgement. It is appears I lied about spending too much time on the Bengals, but moving on to the Ravens – the blip against the Chiefs aside the Ravens are clearly a very good football team who will meet far stiffer challenges over the rest of the season and likely emerge victorious from most of them.

The other early game Sunday game I watched this week was the Carolina Panthers winning their third straight game, beating the still winless Atlanta Falcons. It was not a spectacle of a game, but the seventeen points the Panthers scored in the second quarter was enough for them to comfortably beat a Falcons team who have continued to struggle and that ultimately led to both GM Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Dan Quinn being fired. The Falcons have been trending this way for a while, but it had to be a difficult decision as a lot of the basis for the team that went to the Super Bowl is still there, but they have just not been able to recapture that form. Meanwhile, the Panthers have quietly got themselves to 3-2 despite losing Christian McCaffery to injury in week two, but could very well still be in contention by the time he returns from IR and that is a lot more than I was expecting of them coming into the season. The rest of this year will be strange for the Falcons as both players and coaches will be trying to prove they belong in the league, but it is going to be a long time before the Falcons as an organisation can do anything directly in terms of replacing their GM and head coach. That said, if the head start in the background checks the Falcons get by making the decision now leads to a similar result as what the Panthers have got so far with their new head coach having made an early change themselves last season then they will be very happy.

The final game I got to watch in week five was the closely fought contest that the Minnesota Vikings narrowly lost 27-26 to the Seattle Seahawks. The Vikings scored thirteen unanswered points to build a halftime lead, but came roaring back in the third quarter with three touchdowns and were taken to the wire by the Vikings. The big talking point coming out of this game was the Vikings decision to go for it on fourth down on the Seahawks’ six yard line with two minutes on the clock rather than kick a field goal. There may well be a statistical argument for doing what they did, both in terms of if they made the first down and in turning the ball over with under two minutes left on the clock on the opponents six yard line, and I would usually totally support the decision if that was the case. However, there are a handful of quarterbacks that you feel could execute a ninety-four yard drive in that time and Russell Wilson would be very much near the top of that list, particularly with the form he is in this season. The Seahawks did precisely that, scored the winning touchdown but failed on the following two-point conversion. The same conversion they would have needed to take the game to overtime if the Vikings had just kicked the field goal and taken an eight point lead. It is easy to be wise in hindsight, and I would normally support the maths, but this is one of the few times where I would countenance taking the safe option.

What I Heard

I am going to have to start taking better notes as I have heard lots of interesting things and couldn’t immediately bring a lot of it to mind. However, one thing that did stick is that whilst looking for what coaching tape to watch, I decided to look at the Football Outsiders DVOA stats for offensive line and have a look at the best team. Well, according to the site the team with the best adjusted line yards were the Cleveland Browns (closely followed by Dan’s Dolphins [the real NFL franchise, not his dynasty team]) and this was not wholly a surprise. Unlike the Bengals, who many people have commented on as being poor (although not in adjusted line yards where they rank a lofty twenty-six despite conceding the most sacks in the season so far), I have heard several people talking about how good the Browns’ offensive line is, and how impressive this was given they had a new coaching staff that had to install their offence during a Covid- shortened pre-season. A lot of credit has brrn given to their o-line coach Bill Callahan, and whilst I don’t know enough to evaluate him or the praise, it does make sense and I am looking forward to getting a head start on the coaching film this week with no Thursday night game.

What I Think

Despite the situation with the Titans, the NFL has as yet not lost a game from their schedule and they will be hoping the problems in Tennessee were an outlier and not a foreshadowing of what is to come. The NFL are continuing to adjust their protocols and re-enforce existing ones with talk of restricting the roles of those who are found to have been close contacts of players who have tested positive. I am still pretty impressed that the season has run as well as it has so far, but we are now heading into autumn with the weather becoming more favourable for the virus so soon we shall know if this start was the positive beginning of getting the season finished, or the warning signs that things are about to get a lot tougher.

What I Know

I know the Bengals o-line is bad, that the Panthers are better than I thought they were and that I am looking forward to seeing what Andy Dalton can do with the Dallas offence this week. It may not seem like much, but with everything going on at the moment I’m clinging to the small things and hoping the rest falls into place. I just hope the NFL have planned more carefully than that!

What I Hope

There is only one possible thin I can hope after the week five games, and that is both that Dak Prescott make a full and speedy recovery from his horrible injury sustained on Sunday and that it is a long time until we see anything similar.

2020 Week Five Picks

11 Sunday Oct 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Covid-19, Indianapolis Colts, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, LA Chargers, Lamar Jackson, Matt Rhule, Michael Thomas, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Nick Chubb, Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, Stephon Gilmore, Tennessee Titans, Tyrod Taylor, Week 5 Picks

We have two more rescheduled games this week, including a Tuesday night game that may or may not see the Titans return to action depending on if there are any further positive tests. I would like to think that there will be no more unofficial workouts by the Titans’ players and this might go part way to explaining the number of positives the Titans have had compared to the other teams. That said, the positive test of Patriots’ corner Stephon Gilmore who apparently had dinner with Cam Newton, and the number of the close contacts Newton had is again a demonstration that no one can take the Covid-19 protocols lightly and we will have to see if the current plans will hold, or if things will need to change.

Anyway, having fallen a further point behind Dan in the picking competition thanks to a Bears win on Thursday, I hope to stop the bleeding a little over the rest of week five.

Early Games:

There are various games that look interesting to me in the early slot, but not a lot of obviously compelling watches.

The nearest we have to a competitive matchup according to the lines is the Carolina Panthers taking on the winless Atlanta Falcons, with the Falcons laying three and a half points to the Panthers who are coming off two straight wins. I will be watching this game as I haven’t had a chance to catch either team yet and I want to take a look at what Matt Rhule is building as well as what is going on with the Falcons and in particular their defence..

The other game that is catching my eye is a little self-serving, but the Bengals are coming off their first win with Joe Burrow and travel to take on the Baltimore Ravens. The AFC North is always a competitive division, at least amongst the top team and the Bengals have had a tendency to play the Ravens close so with Lamar Jackson dealing with a knee injury during the week I think this is likely a closer game that the line suggests and has the potential to be one of those division games that could give us a surprise result, even if it is merely a closer loss for the Bengals than expected.

Other things of interest:

The Kansas City Chiefs are heavy favourites, which is understandable to an extent as the Raiders have not won in Arrowhead stadium for seven years and with the Raiders’ defence still ranked in the thirties I like the Chiefs to continue their win streak but it could be a challenge to cover this line.
The LA Rams should win in Washington, except the Rams have been back and forth across the country at the start of this season so perhaps the Football Team can spring a surprise off the back of a different quarterback starting.
The Arizona Cardinals have fallen back in their division after two straight losses but will be hoping to get things back on track against a Jets team who will be without struggling quarterback Sam Darnold thanks to the AC sprain in his throwing shoulder. There will be some serious questions to answer if the Cardinals lose a third straight game.
The Philadelphia Eagles coming of their first win of the season travel to face the Steelers in a game that I think the Steelers are likely to win given the strength of their defense and the problems the Eagles are having on offence, but this game has the potential to get interesting if the Eagles defensive line can get going or if Carson Wentz finds some form.
There will be some who think the Texans will get a new coach bounce, and whilst that is possible, I don’t see it being a huge factor as their roster has structural issues thanks to letting Bill O’Brien make short terms moves as GM over the last couple of season. The Texans may well get their first win of the season, but this line is too high for me and the Jaguars offence may have success against a Texans defense centered around an ageing JJ Watt and not a huge amount more.

Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Bengals @ Ravens (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Raiders @ Chiefs (-12.5)

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Rams @ Washington (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Cardinals @ Jets (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Eagles @ Steelers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Jaguars @ Texans (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Late Games:

The matchup of the late Sunday games is the Indianapolis Colts taking their league leading by DVOA defense to Cleveland to face a Browns team who have won three games straight. The injury to lead running back Nick Chubb is a blow for the Browns, and the Colts will prove a lot sterner test than the miserable Cowboys defense last week. The Browns are getting points at home this week, but I think this is a close matchup and I think could be one of the more competitive games of the week.

The Dolphins could not keep up with the Seahawks last week and now face a trip across the country to face a 49ers team who are staying competitive despite their extensive injury list. I like the 49ers to win this one, but I think this game could be closer than the line suggests, and I would not be surprised if the Dolphins managed an upset.

The Dallas Cowboys simply cannot afford to lose this game, although no one is looking that capable of winning the NFC East. However, the Giants have the easiest offence the Cowboys have faced this season so this could be a chance for them to find something and it won’t take much of a defensive effort for the Cowboys to win given how well their offence is playing.

Dolphins @ 49ers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Colts @ Browns (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Giants @ Cowboys (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Sunday Night Football:

Vikings @ Seahawks (-7.5)

I sometime worry that I am turning into Dan as I am really looking forward to this game as after a slow start the Minnesota Vikings are finding their feet on offence, and they will need every yard of the passing game to keep up with the Seahawks. That said, the Seahawks defense is not good and plain bad against the pass, ranking twenty-ninth by DVOA. I think this should be a fun game to watch given the offensive battle, and while it may be closer than eight points, it’s hard to see Russell Wilson losing this game given how well he is playing.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Monday Night Football:

Chargers @ Saints (-7.5)

The LA Chargers have named rookie quarterback Justin Herbert their starting quarterback and he has definitely shown promise, but the Chargers only win came against the Bengals with Tyrod Taylor getting the start. The New Orleans Saints might not look quite like themselves, but with talk that receiver Michael Thomas could return and the Chargers looking decidedly average I find it hard to see them springing an upset on the road, even if the Saints are missing their passionate crowd. This line might be too big to cover, but I will be surprised if the Chargers do manage to get the win.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Rescheduled Games:

Broncos @ Patriots (-10.5)

The first game of the Monday night doubleheader sees the Patriots host the Denver Broncos coming off their Thursday night win over the Jets. It is hard to know how the disruption of the last week will have affected the Patriots, but they will miss Cam Newton and so whilst I think that Bill Belichick will be able to lead his team to the win, I doubt they will cover this line. I could be wrong, but double-digit points after a disrupted week of preparation that sees the Patriots going against a well-rested Broncos team is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Bills @ Titans (+1.5)

After all the positive tests and the apparent out of facility workouts the Titans are currently scheduled to retake the field this Tuesday night, which sees the Bills game against the Chiefs that was supposed to happen two days later put back to the Sunday. No one truly knows if the Titans will be in a position to play this game, or how they will look when they finally do return to the field. I think the Bills should win if this game does get played, but a Tuesday night game puts the Bills in a situation no team will have seen to prepare for their Sunday night game against the Chiefs. We knew that this season would not be fair, and so it will be even more impressive if the Bills come out of their next two games with a win or two.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Testing the Protocols

30 Wednesday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Aaron Rodgers, Allen Lazard, Alvin Kamara, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Brian Flores, Cincinnati Bengals, Covid-19, Davantae Adams, DJ Chark, Drew Brees, Emmanuel Sanders, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, James Robinson, Joe Mixon, Kansas City Chiefs, Lamar Jackson, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans, Tua Tagovailoa

This week’s midweek post is writen in the unusual position of being published later than our podcast as we were racing the news.

After a solitary Falcons’ player testing positive on Saturday turned into eight positive tests for the Tennessee Titans on Tuesday, including three players, events have led to the closing of both the Titans’ facility and that of their opponents on Sunday the Vikings.

According to ESPN the three players are from disparate position groups – a starting nose tackle, the long snapper and a practice squad tight-end, but now everyone holds their breath as we see if the cases spread amongst the Titans players and staff, or to anyone with the Vikings.

It is not unexpected for there to be positive tests, but this is the next true test of the protocols agreed by the NFL and the NFLPA and I certainly have been checking for news updates more frequently than normal. What I’m hoping for is that the outbreaks remain in small numbers and that no one has a life changing version of the illness. There are plenty of those who would say that these players get paid enough money to take this risk, but many players earn nothing like the millions the stars do and they only have one body and one life to use it in.

We are living in an uncertain world, and this is yet another stark reminder of that fact. I just hope the plans are up to facing the reality of playing a season in the middle of a pandemic, because just writing that sentence feels ridiculous.

And with that said, I suppose I had better get back to my usual in-season mid-week post…

What I Saw

Week three started with a one side affair in Jacksonville that saw the Miami Dolphins run out comfortable winners 31–13 over the Jaguars. Dan is still annoyed he forget to put the followingin the podcast last night so he would like to say:

‘It was good to see that they allowed the Jags to run at about a third capacity, which actually means that attendance at TIAA Bank Field is up on last season!’

The Dolphins were able to move the ball consistently with a balanced attack, whilst the Jaguars who I praised coming into this game struggled with the Dolphins’ defence playing more zone defence and with the absence of DJ Chark. Undrafted rooking running back James Robinson still looked good for the Jaguars, but wasn’t able to drag the team into contention. It was obviously good for the Dolphins to get the win and Brian Flores has already established a culture with the Dolphins and what they are looking for this season is progress from last year. The only concern is that the future of this franchise lies in the hands of Tua Tagovailoa and as fun as it is to watch Ryan Fitzpatrick play quarterback, the Dolphins are not building towards the future with the thirty-eight year old journeyman and the wonder has to be when Tagovailoa to play. To be fair, we have just seen with Patrick Mahomes that the old way of sitting a quarterback for a year can still work as they learn how to be a pro, but we shall have to see if that is the plan or not. The Jaguars need to get back to winning ways, but a long week before travelling to take on the Bengals might be the very tonic they need.

On Sunday the Bengals decided to tease me with their third tie since 2014 and I was there for the 2016 tied game in London. The Bengals defence looked like it might have coped a little better with the Eagles, but the offensive line is still struggling so Joe Mixon is having to work very hard for his yards and Joe Burrow is still looking poised as he searches for his first win. There was a nasty moment when Burrow was force out of the game after a hard hit and I hope there are not too many more of them and the line begins to come together but I’m not convinced, although some of the young receivers are beginning to get more involved inthe game. As for the Eagles, there are some very recognisable names on the roster, but things are not working for them right now and they are beginning to look like a bad football team. It is not as if the Bengals are a good team, they haven’t won away from Cincinnati since week four of the 2018 season, so dropping to 0-2-1 when facing a road trip to the 49ers and Steelers makes the Eagles’ prospects look pretty bad, particularly as their week six game is against the Ravens. This is a franchise who need to find some kind of consistent formula to move the ball on offence as their eighteenth ranked by DVOA defence doesn’t looked equipped to lead the way, particularly as their ranking drops down to twenty-third against the pass.

If the Eagles are having a disastrous start to the season, the New Orleans Saints are having a difficult one that saw them lose 37-30 to the Green Bay Packeers in the Sunday Night prime time slot. I actually thought that the Saints offence moved the ball more consistently than the Packers, with Alvin Kamara leading the way on the ground but Drew Brees if not actually bad, is not up to his usual standards though the absence of receiver Michael Thomas still hobbled by injury will not help. However, off-season acquisition Emmanuel Sanders looked to be building some chemistry with Brees in this game. The problem is that whilst a 2-1 start is perfectly fine, the Packers are looking pretty good at 3-0 right now and whilst their defence only ranks twenty-eighth by DVOA, that doesn’t really matter when Aaron Rodgers is looking so comfortable in his second year running Matt LaFleur’s offence. Even without favourite receiver Davante Adams, Rodgers was able to generate big plays with Allen Lazard getting deep multiple times on a day when he finished with one hundred and forty-six yards and touchdown. The Saints home field advantage is lessened by not being able to have their loud fans, but playing in a dome is still preferable to having Brees at forty-one playing in Green Bay in January and that looks a step closer with this loss. There’s plenty of time to make up ground and a lot can change between now and then, but that is definitely the kind of stakes these two teams are playing for so this is a loss that could come back to haunt the Saints..

Finally, the much heralded (including by me) Monday night game saw the Kansas City Chiefs roll into Baltimore and hand the Ravens a 34-20 loss. The Chiefs were able to get a lead and build upon it with their versatile offence, as the defence also managed to contain the Ravens offence. It seems that Ravens still have problem throwing the ball when this is obviously necessary, and so as good as this team are, they have limits when playing against a similar level of opponent right now. This game also served a timely reminder of just how good Patrick Mahomes is, as well as how electric Lamar Jackson is running the ball. We could be in the early stages of what ccould become a spectacular rivalry, but for that to happen Jackson and the Ravens need to find a way or a receiver capable of getting them receptions when the defence knows they have to throw the ball. This matchu cannot be a rivalry if one team always plays a team close but never wins. If there is a franchise that is capable of taking this step then it is the Ravens, but they must stop this narrative taking hold and becoming fact.

What I Think

I think we have been lucky for things to go so smoothly through the pre-season and early weeks of the season, but we are about to find out how difficult it is going to be to get through to the end. Since I wrote the introduction to this post, the game between the Steelers and Titans has now been postponed (perhaps to Monday or Tuesday) and no one knows if something will have to happen with the Vikings at Texans game. Every NFL team and fan is currently holding their breath, waiting for the other shoe to drop.

The NFL has plenty of resources to throw at the problem, but like everyone else it is a non-sentient virus that’s is driving the decisions whether we like it or not.

What I Know

In our dynasty league it is the first TWF showdown between Dan’s Dolphins and Gee’s Tigers and perhaps we need to work on our franchise names.

On the field the matchup I am most looking forward to is Andy Reid’s offence going up against Bill Belichick’s defence.

Off the field, the NFL have issued another strongly worded warning to coaches who won’t wear face masks on the side lines, threatening suspensions and loss of draft picks. With players testing positive, and other players being spotted without masks at a charity event with members of the public, the NFL will want to get hold of the situation because we are beginning to see how the current solution that has worked so far is not that far away from falling apart.

It’s going to take real discipline and a lot of effort to get through the season.

What I Hope

What I hope this week is that we find a way through, if not to the end of the season then without a life changing infection for someone.

That is something that could be said of any season in the NFL, but their is added complexity to it this years. Let’s see what the week holds.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Maybe I Do Like Fantasy Football?

23 Wednesday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Aaron Donald, Baker Mayfield, Baltimore Ravens, Brandon Staley, Cam Newton, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Cooper Kupp, Covid-19, DK Metcalf, Doug Baldwin, Ezekiel Elliott, Face Masks, Fantasy Football, Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jalen Ramsey, James Robinson, Jared Goff, Jay Gruden, Joe Burrow, Kansas City Chiefs, Kevin Stefanski, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots, NFL, Pete Carroll, Philadelphia Eagles, Robert Woods, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, San Francisco 49ers, Sean McVay, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, Tom Coughlin, TWF NFL Dynasty League, Tyler Lockett

It feels like on the field the news has been about injuries as we start to get a handle on how teams are shaping up after the shortened pre-season, whereas the news from the side lines are the head coaches who have been fined for violating the face-covering protocols and it was certainly odd to see Pete Carroll operating without a covering Sunday night. You would expect a coach to lead by example, and I am not surprised that having already released a sternly worded memo after week one, that fines are following.

What I Saw

Week two started with the Cleveland Browns getting the better of the battle for Ohio, but once again Joe Burrow was able to get the Bengals into contention by the end of the game that they ultimately lost 35-30. I have been impressed by the Bengals’ rookie quarterback who after only two games I am predicting is a franchise quarterback. If the Bengals can build an offensive line either through development in-season or through off-season acquisitions either by draft or free-agency then I think Burrow and this offence could be specials. Burrow gets the ball out, has not been overwhelmed by starting in the NFL despite a curtailed pre-season, and if he had a bit more support from the defence the Bengals might have won one of the opening pair of games they lost. Having watched this game, I went back to look at the Browns’ loss to the Ravens and whilst I still would say there are valid concerns about Baker Mayfield in his third year, the design of Kevin Stefanski’s offence should help him, particularly with its focus on running the ball, play action and QB bootlegs. There is a lot of talent on the Browns’ roster but it will be a concern that the Bengals made this a close game. Then again, given how the Chargers competed against the Chiefs this week and how good the Ravens look full stop, I think both the Browns and the Bengals are already showing progression from last season, even if the records don’t really show it yet.

I watched two of the early Sunday games this week. In my first, the LA Rams followed up on my podcast bold prediction (I’m really not sure I’m happy about Dan making me do this) and beat the Philadelphia Eagles comfortably 37-19. The Eagles still have not quite put things together in either the offensive or defensive phase of the game, but they do have the chance to get right this week against the Bengals. However, the Eagles’ usually strong pass rush was not able to bother Jared Goff, and while he may not be in the upper echelon of quarterbacks, if you give Goff time to run Sean McVay’s system then the Ram’s offence looks really good. The influx of youth at running back has got the Rams looking more like they did in the first two seasons under McVay, and with half a dozen players catching the ball there looks to be support for Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. The defence isn’t particularly inspiring despite having two all-star talents in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsay, and currently ranks fourteenth in the league by DVOA, but it doesn’t have to be that good for the Rams to win and as they adjust to new coordinator Brandon Staley they may well improve. I have my concerns about the Eagles, but this is a team trying to bed in new players and dealing with injuries so whilst the playoffs are not beyond the realms of possibility yet, they will need to start finding some form soon. Still, the Bengals could be just the team they need to face…

The other early game I watched was the thoroughly entertaining contest that saw the Jacksonville Jaguars taking on the Tennessee Titans, but ultimately losing 33-30. In truth, the Titans were the better team who now seem to play good enough defence and offence to always be competitive and this has been the case ever since Ryan Tannehill established himself as their starting quarterback last season. For the first few seasons that I was writing this blog, it felt like the Titans didn’t really have an identity or the players to catch your attention, but Mike Vrabel and some good drafting has changed all of that. A defensive ranking of seventeenth by DVOA and a top ten offence is a similar formula to the Rams and looks to be enough to compete in the AFC South dvision and perhaps have more success in the play-offs, although the Titans do look a step down from the truly elite teams. However, they did have to work for this game and part of that is because the Jaguars are looking pretty good for a team that a lot of people thought were in for a rebuilding year. However, rookie running back James Robinson looked dynamic running for one hundred yards and catching a a couple of balls out the backfield as Gardner Minshew continues to outplay his sixth round draft status. The young talent, when combined with the off-season hiring of Jay Gruden as offensive coordinator looks like it is going to be too good for the Jaguars to have the high draft pick some were suggesting was the goal for the season. Yes the Jaguars are playing a lot of young players, but it looks like they might have something and perhaps the absence of Tom Coughlin and his frequent fines is helping the talent flourish in Jacksonville. I’m not one for big predictions (despite Dan’s best efforts) but there might be some hope for Jaguars yet.

The Sunday night game was a humdinger of a battle between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots that the Seahawks held on to win 35-30 when their defence stuffed Cam Newton on a final chance to score a winning touchdown. It was looking ominous for the Seahawks as Newton lined up once again behind a jumbo formation in a shotgun position and received the snap. Newton had already delivered two rushing touchdowns and looked set to win the game, but the Seattle defence swarmed to stuff him short of the goal line. However, the exciting thing for the Patriots in this game was not that Newton looked good running the ball, but that he threw the ball as well as he has done for a long time. The power was there and the Patriots are beginning to look like a new iteration of their usual perennially successful franchise. Something similar could be said for the Seahawks, whose defence may be languishing as twenty-fourth by DVOA but are second in offence thanks to Russel Wilson playing outstandingly well. The drafting of DK Metcalf last year to pair with Tyler Lockett has given Russell a fearsome pair of receivers to throw to despite Doug Baldwin’s retirement. The Seahawks are one of three unbeaten teams in the NFC West, which is shaping up as the strongest division in the league, with last year’s Super Bowl runners up currently bottom of the divison with a 1-1 record thanks to a slew of injuries. This was a game that lived up to its Sunday night billing and I have a feeling both teams will be featured plenty of more times before the season is through.

What I Heard

It has been a busy week, but the thing that leaps to my mind is that a lot of people who power rank teams are vaulting the Ravens over the Chiefs into first in the league, and I can absolutely see why. If you win two games by over sixteen points to start your season and are top five by DVOA in all three phases of the game then you have not just got a good team, but a potentially great one. It is too early to say anything definitive, particularly based on DVOA given that we have an even smaller sample size to work from in week than usual due to the lack of pre-season games, but I am curious to see how things develop in the coming weeks. Particularly as we are being treated to the Chiefs visiting the Ravens on Monday night.

What I Think

It was frustrating not being able to get a coaching film post up last week. Some of that was work being busy, but there was also some kind of issues with getting coaching film at all last week as I heard several of the podcasters I listen to complaining about it, and the US usually get it a day earlier that we do. If I was really together, I should look at using a VPN to sign up for the US version of Gamepass again as the interface for the EU version is no where near as good as what we used to have. We don’t even get a list of plays to browse by when working with coaching film. It’s pretty frustrating that we are now multiple years into having an EU version of Gamepass and we’re still missing basic functions we used to have when signed up in the US. It’s also noticeable that the Twitter account for the EU NFL Gamepass service has disappeared, almost as if it was highlighting more problems than it was solving.

What I Know

I have avoided playing fantasy football for years after previous disappointments. I still believe in the importance of watching whole games, looking at coaching film, but I am enjoying our new dynasty league and not just because so far I’m winning games. It helps that we know everyone by name and I do like the dynasty format as it enables you to switch track if your teams accumulates too many injuries and with IR and the Taxi squad it feels like you are more in control of your own destiny. You’ll still need luck to win a championship, and it can still all go wrong even if you have made the right moves but that this way you still have options..

Let’s see if that’s how I feel when the losses start racking up.

What I Hope

I have seen that we already have coach’s film available as I was able to check the Seahawks defensive stand on the last play of the game on Sunday. I’m looking at some play diagramming options so there may well be some graphics in the future if I can get that to work. I’m just hoping I get to watch more than 3/8^ths of a game this week so I can get an actual post up, but I will always have the memories of what happened to poor Ezekiel Elliot when the protection scheme meant he had to try to block Aaron Donald.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Two

17 Thursday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Tags

Baker Mayfield, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 2 Picks

It feels like week two has come round very quickly, and I’m hoping that I can peg back Dan who taken a single point lead after one week. We also both got off to winning starts in the dynasty league, although Dan did live up to being the more experienced fantasy player by having the highest total in the entire league for week one.

Gee:	Week 1: 8 – 8	Overall: 8 – 8
Dan:	Week 1: 8 – 8	Overall: 9 – 7

Bengals @ Browns (-5.5)

The Thursday night game sees the battle for Ohio series continue as the Bengals look to build from their second half of last week against a Browns team who will be desperate to put their putrid loss the Ravens behind them. I saw signs that could be improvements for the Bengals, whilst Baker Mayfield looked very similar to last season as the offence struggled and the Browns are currently ranked thirty-first by DVOA in all three phases of the game. When you combine rankings like that with getting this many points then even thought the Bengals are on the road on a Thursday night, I am picking them to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Survivor Competition

Well it appears Dan and I got too clever for our own boots last week and so in a proper survivor pool we would have be eliminated in the first week so no bonus for either of us.

We are at least going for different teams this week so hopefully one of us gets a score. Dan is underlining his confidence in his pick for today by going with the Bengals whilst I’m playing it a little safer and am taking the Steelers at home against the Broncos

Current Score

Gee: 0
Dan: 0

Week 2 Selection:

Gee: Steelers
Dan: Bengals

It is Not Time to Panic, yet…

16 Wednesday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

AJ Green, Alvin Kamara, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Cincinnati Bengals, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Dak Prescott, David Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Drew Bledsoe, Drew Brees, Houston Texans, Jeff Benedict, Joe Burrow, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Chargers, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Peter King, Robert Kraft, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, The Dynasty, Tom Brady, Week One

Here we are looking at the second week of the 2020 season and so far we got through the first week of games with the storylines being what happened on the field and not any kind of Covid outbreak. There is still a long way to go and the problem with Covid-19 is that it can spread rapidly so whilst the teams and the locker room are managing to police themselves so far, an already long season looks like a mammoth exercise in endurance. There may well be an asterisk placed against this season by the time it is done, but if the NFL manages to crown a champion, they will be truly worthy.

What I Saw

The season opened with the Kansas City Chiefs in ominous form, easily beating the Houston Texans 34-20 and looking every inch the defending champions. The Chiefs DVOA rankings look relatively modest, but rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire quickly established himself with one hundred and thirty-eight yards rushing, and the passing attack distributed the ball efficiently between half a dozen receivers. The numbers for Patrick Mahomes look relatively modest but belie how in control of this game the Chiefs were. The Houston Texans did take the lead in this game after a crisp second drive finished with a nineteen yard touchdown run from David Johnson who showed some of the explosion he was missing last year as he tries to get somewhere near the Pro Bowl form he showed back in 2016. However, after the Texans surrendered their lead towards the end of the second quarter they never got close again as the offence looked to be missing DeAndre Hopkins and could not keep up with the Chiefs, particularly as the Texans’ defence could not contain the Cheif’s offence. It is way to early to write off the Texans as head coach Bill O’Brien has a history of competing in their division but I do worry they are not setup to maximise the window they have with Deshaun Watson.

I watched two games from the late slate of Sunday games. The Cincinnati Bengals hosted the LA Chargers and in a parallel universe somewhere beat them with a pass to AJ Green in the dying seconds that didn’t get the offensive PI call that wiped out Burrow’s chance of a debut win. The game could have been taken into overtime with an eminently kickable field goal, but the Chargers played their own part in getting the 16-13 win. The Bengals offensive line struggled in the first half as the Chargers introduced Burrow to what an NFL pass rush can do. This not only resulted in three sacks but Burrow struggled early and in the second half he gifted the Chargers an interception with an ill advised shovel pass, but the second half and the final drive showed glimpses of what he could become. Not to mention the Bengals defence looked better than it did last season. It’s too early to tell just how good either of these teams are in the context of the league, but I’m hopeful that the Bengals will remain competitive and I expect the same from the Chargers.

The final game I watched fully was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit to New Orleans where they lost to the Saints 34-24. It was not the premier contest you might have expected with Tom Brady and Drew Brees as the quarterbacks. In a new uniform Tom Brady had some moments and a couple of nice deep balls, but also looked like a quarterback in a new offensive system and with special teams mishaps and uncharacteristic interceptions the Bucs were unable to keep up with the Saints. This time the Bucs surrendered an early lead in the second quarter and never really got close to the Saint. The Saints defence looked good and generated turnovers whilst their offence spread the ball around without dominating. Alvin Kamara caught and rushed for a touchdown but Drew Brees only threw for one hundred and sixty yards so I have no doubt that people have his throws under the microscope for the next few weeks. I still like the Saints to be one of the teams in the NFC, but it looks like Brady and the Bucs have some work to do if they want to join them in the play-offs.

What I Heard

With the abbreviated pre-season it is perhaps not surprising that it was the established premier coaches who won their first games. For example, the Patriots utilised Cam Newton effectively and will be looking to pile the pressure on the Bills who many were tipping to be favourites for the division. Execution, third-down play, and conditioning is what will win games in this early part of the season.

It will be no surprise to anyone that Peter King is good at covering the NFL, but this week’s podcast interview with author Jeff Benedict was really good and his new book, The Dynasty sounds like a really good book unless you’re my friend Dan and pathologically hate the Pats for AFC East reasons.

I thoroughly enjoyed the story of Tom Brady being a Californian stuck in the snow and in danger of missing Bill Belichick’s mandatory three-hour early arrival meeting ahead of a game as he’s stuck on a gridlocked freeway. However, Brady is smart enough to call the Pats’ head of security, who confirms he is in his yellow jeep and within ten minutes state troopers arrive and give him an escort through the traffic. It sounds like a scene from a movie, but the other drivers soon realise who is being prioritised through and start honking their horns and cheering as other Pats’ players fall in line behind the convoy, recognising Brady’s car and everyone makes it to the game. It sounds like a movie. Oh, and this is ahead of the infamous tuck rule game against the Raiders.

However, believe it or not, that’s not the best story in the podcast, and nor is the one about how Bon Jovi was a part of Robert Kraft’s vetting process for Belichick. No, author Benedict read his own prologue of the day where Drew Bledsoe could have died and trust me, even if you can’t stomach a book about the last twenty years or the Patriots, you should listen to that story because it is a work of a proper writer.

I hope one day to write something as good as that. I also enjoyed them keeping Peter King’s unfiltered response during the recording process.

What I Think

Every year going into week two I try to remember that it is early in the season, that a team is more likely to finish week two 1-1 than 2-0 or 0-2, but it is very hard to make it into the play-offs if you start the season 0-2.

There might be some more room to manoeuvre this season given the expanded play-offs, but there will be a number of teams in the AFC and NFC who are expecting to compete for the play-offs who will be desperate for a win this week.

What I say to fans of those teams is that it is not time to panic, yet… I would wait until the end of week three and even then, unlikely runs can happen, but what most teams and fans will be hoping is that by then they have not left themselves too much to do already.

What I Know

What I know right now is that no one’s life currently looks like they planned at the beginning of the year. We are all struggling to adjust, and I am sure that is true for everyone working in the NFL and not just for Covid-19 related reasons.

To be honest, the blog still feel odd to me. It’s not a surprise, there are meant to be three of us involved and now we’re down to two a person is missing from our usual conversations and plans.

I’m trying to enjoy the process, but I wonder about the grind of the season. It’s never work, but it can get to you and given how I feel going into week two, I can’t help but wonder how the players are going to find it. That’s why I found Dak Prescott’s honesty about his struggles with his mental health earlier this year so moving.

There are still things to take from the league, and I just hope that at some point things to feel less heavy, even if it is going to feel strange for a while.

What I Hope

I’m going to be selfish this week, I’m hoping for a Thursday night win for the Bengals, and that Joe Burrow gets that first win early so the Bengals can start building something that might one day lead back to the Super Bowl.

It all has to start with that first win.

I hope it is soon.