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2018 Week Ten Picks

11 Sunday Nov 2018

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I’m not sure I could have been more wrong about the Thursday night game, but I’m still not sure the pick was wrong with what we knew but the Steelers ran away with the game and I have a nasty feeling they will be extending their lead at the top of the AFC North this week. Anyway, before that I have the minor matter of a trivia pick to get wrong.

‘This week we have the reverse fixture from week 1 when I asked you which was the Highest stadium of the 31 in the NFL but this time I want to ask about the lowest. As with Mile High being the highest the Saints Superdome at just 3 feet would also be too easy so who is 2nd and what ‘altitude’ are they at? I’ll offer UP TO 2 points for the right answers this week. Is that, I hear you ask, a clue?

It’s a Fair Catch’

So I’m really struggling this week as I don’t have that great a knowledge of American geography but the lowest stadium is going to be on the coast somewhere and if the New Orleans stadium is the lowest I’m going to with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Raymond James Stadium and guess it is four feet above sea level.

‘I’m pretty confident I’m picking up the points this week, and that’s largely based on the giant clue that Dad has given us! I think the answer is Los Angeles (two points – two teams…).’

Having seen Dan’s answer I’m now feeling particularly dumb…

Falcons @ Browns (+4.5)

So on the face of it this is a horrible game to pick. However, the Browns have now lost four straight and have no settled infrastructure around a rookie quarterback whilst the Falcons have found a way to win three straight. The home underdog points are always tempting, but with the Browns having lost their last two games by a combined thirty-one points I think the Falcons might be able to run up the score again and I am going to need more points than this to pick the dysfunctional Browns.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Bills @ Jets (-7.5)

This seems like a lot of points to be laying by a New York Jets team who are struggling to move the ball. I am not prepared to give up on Sam Darnold but with the injuries at receiver and with a defensive minded head coach I don’t see things changing much this season and now that he is injured we have Josh McCown starting. However, whilst the Jets offence is bad, the Bills’ offence is historically putrid, although Matt Barkley is expected to make the start this week, but the only thing we can really trust is that we have a matchup of two top ten defences. This is not a recipe for points and so I’m going to hold my nose and pick the Bills in what is likely to be a pretty awful watch. I would love to be proven wrong, and I may well get the pick wrong given the flux at quarterback, but I doubt this game will set many pulses racing.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Lions @ Bears (-6.5)

I am really interested in seeing this game as it pits two divisional rivals against each other with the Chicago Bears riding high off their second big win and are hosting the up and down Detroit Lions. The Lions are something of an enigma to me as they have a couple of good wins but overall they seem to be heading in the wrong direction and the front office appears to be making long term decisions, which won’t help them win right now. This feels like a lot of points but given the Lions have lost their last two games by more than eight points and the Bears have won it this either means the trend is set to continue or due for a change. I’m going to back the better team in this one but I don’t exactly feel happy about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Saints @ Bengals (+4.5)

This game really scares me. The hope is that we get some bad weather that hinders Drew Brees, but with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram running the ball against the Bengals suspect run defence they might not need Brees to be at his best. This is without even considering how the Bengals offence will function minus AJ Green. I am hoping to be proven wrong, and will gladly lose the point but I don’t think I am.

I always wanted to take a moment to mark Dez Bryant tearing his Achilles having signed for the Saints, which is just a horrible thing to happen for a player trying to find a way back into the league after not finding a team during the offseason and could be potentially career ending.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Patriots @ Titans (+7.5)

This is another intriguing game, but given the New England Patriots recent form it is hard to see them not covering any points spread. The Tennessee Titans have been grinding through the season with their new coaching team but the offence has not been turned around under Matt LaFLeur as people were hoping and with a DVOA ranking of twenty-sixth that goes with a defensive ranking of twentieth they have done well to be 4-4. Given the Patriots have rounded into form as they usually do I’m going to back them even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Jaguars @ Colts (-2.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost four straight and coming off a bye they are hoping to get Leonard Fournette back from injury, which they will be desperate for as the offence just hasn’t functioned without him. The strange thing with this team has been the lack of discipline and this week we’ve had AJ Bouye rule himself out with injury to the press, which was news to head coach Doug Marrone. They travel to face an Indianapolis Colts team who have the same 3-5 record but they are heading in the opposite direction after last season and it will be interesting to see what the result is. I’m struggling with the line in this one as if Fournette can re-establish the power run game that would help the Jaguars control he clock and have a functional offence then they might be able to look more like the team who went to the playoffs last season, but there are a lot of unknowns. I’d like to stay well away from this game, but seeing as we can’t I am going to back the team with the better DVOA ranking who only need to win by a field goal to cover but I don’t exactly feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Cardinals @ Chiefs (-16.5)

The Arizona Cardinals are coming of a bye and face a ridiculously difficult game going against the buzzsaw that is the Kansas City Chiefs at home. There seems to be a lot of positive feeling about Byron Letwich who has taken over as offensive coordinator for the Cardinals and their defence is actually rated top ten by DVOA, but defence isn’t exactly a predictor of success in the NFL with six of the top ten defences by DVOA belonging to teams with losing records and the Seahawks are 4-4. This is way too many points to give and looking at the Chiefs they have only managed to win by the required seventeen points once, and yes that was against the Bengals and so I’m going to guarantee they do it a second time by backing the Cardinals to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Washington @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

This is such a tough spot for Washington after the cluster of injuries on their offensive line they travel to a warm muggy Tampa who are a dangerous 3-5. The Buccaneers have huge problems on defence but can at least move the ball on offence through the air and stand a fighting chance with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at quarterback. I’m going to nervously back the Buccaneers given the flux in Washington on the line of an offence that only ranked twentieth before this happened, but this is another shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Chargers @ Raiders (+9.5)

The lines this week all seem to be horrible, and now we head into a run of nine and a half point lines. The first is given to the Raiders at home because they have been awful. Despite this being a divisional matchup I strongly fancy the Chargers to win but this is a lot of points. That said the Raiders have to look back to their week four win over the Browns for the last time they managed not to lose by more than ten points and I don’t see where a magical turnaround is coming from so the Chargers it is.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Dolphins @ Packers (-9.5)

The Miami Dolphins are still in the hunt for the playoffs despite their up and down play but they have not been good on the road and Green Bay is not exactly the easiest of places to play. That said, the Packers are on something of an iffy run themselves although losing to the Rams and Patriots is hardly a horrific drop in form but at 3-4-1 they are in desperate need of wins. They have the ninth best offence by DVOA despite having arguably the most talented quarterback in the league and I think they will win this game but this seems like too many points for a team whose only big win was against the Bills. I’m going to back the Dolphins to keep it closer than ten points and hope I don’t jinx Dan’s team too badly.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Seahawks @ Rams (-9.5)

The Seattle Seahawks travel to face a now defeated LA Rams team but losing on the road to the Saints like the Rams did last week is hardly something to be embarrassed about. There are still some wobbles in the Rams’ play but I think they have more than enough to beat a Seahawks team who are one of the few teams who are still managing to win with the formula of defence and running the ball. This is line is too rich for me given the Rams’ recent run of form against teams that are not the 49ers and so I’ll back the Seahawks to keep it within ten even if I think the Rams get back to winning ways and can seal a playoff berth with a win.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Cowboys @ Eagles (-6.5)

I am curious enough about this game that I’m going to watch it given the ongoing mess that is going on in Dallas, but more because I want to see the Eagles and in particular how Golden Tate will be worked into the offence. Given the Eagles are coming off a bye and really need to push on if they are going to make the playoffs they really need a win and I expect them to get it but this is another big line. However, the Cowboys have lost all of their road games so far this season and having lost to the Titans by fourteen points I’m going to back the team with the coaching staff I have more faith in, although with the now standard caveat that I’m not happy about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Giants @ 49ers (-2.5)

I’m wary of reading too much into the 49ers win against the Raiders last week, but Nick Mullens is to get his second start and a rested 49ers team will face a New York Giants team coming off a bye but how much of difference will that have made? They may next to be each other in the overall DVOA rankings but I have more faith in the 49ers coming off a win and generating something than the Giants who were moving out pieces from their defence at the trade deadline.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week 10

08 Thursday Nov 2018

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I’m very happy to have got back to a winning record picking games as well as extending a lead over Dan in the trivia competition, although I don’t think that is going to hold up against the question this week as I have no idea about the heights/depths of NFL cities. But before I fret over that anymore there is a very tasty looking Thursday night game to consider.

Gee: Week 9 9-4 Overall 68-66
Dan: Week 9 6-7 Overall 64-70

Panthers @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Carolina Panthers are visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers in a brilliant looking fixture considering that the Panthers are 6-2 and should give a Steelers team in better form a real test. In fact, I’m not sure this line isn’t overly generous to the Steelers given that the Panthers are ranked third by overall DVOA with a top five ranked offence. I’m really looking forward to getting another look at what Norv Turner and Cam Newton have cooked up together without being on the receiving end and I’m backing them to keep it closer than five points even if they are on the road on a Thursday night.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

‘Can’t see anything other than a big Steelers win this week!’

Week Ten Trivia

‘In Week 9 I posed a question about Owners. That this came in the week that Leicester City’s owner left us is a pure coincidence as all of the questions I use were prepared and sequenced prior to the start of the season. It’s strange how these kind of events crop up but the impact that it has had on soccer has been stunning and I wonder how many owners of any sporting team would illicit such an outpouring of genuine adoration tinged with grief?

The question was which owner was the most recent to be inducted to the Hall of Fame. I can report that Gee correctly scored on both counts currently identifying Dallas’ Jerry Jones was honoured in 2017.

This week we have the reverse fixture from week 1 when I asked you which was the Highest stadium of the 31 in the NFL but this time I want to ask about the lowest. As with Mile High being the highest the Saints Superdome at just 3 feet would also be too easy so who is 2nd and what ‘altitude’ are they at? I’ll offer UP TO 2 points for the right answers this week. Is that, I hear you ask, a clue?

It’s a Fair Catch’

The Battle of the Big Guns

07 Wednesday Nov 2018

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I had a serene Sunday with the Bengals on a bye, although I have a creeping dread more worthy of the Halloween that just passed about the upcoming game as the New Orleans Saints are visiting Cincinnati and that bodes ill for the rested but injured Bengals team.

Still, before we get to the future outlook of the team there’s the minor matter of this week’s games to contemplate and the interesting results that occurred.

The obvious place to start would be the pretty amazing run of late games that I think entertained everyone. Although watching back later, I saw two games in sequence before circling back to the best game of the week once the UK Gamepass blackout had cleared. The first of these was the LA Chargers going into Seattle and demonstrating the faith I had placed in them was not misplaced with a relatively comfortable win against the Seahawks. It could have been even more comfortable had Caleb Sturgis not missed two extra points and a field goal, which also resulted in a missed two point conversion attempt by the Chargers trying to get back the original missed extra point back. Unsurprisingly the Chargers have moved on from Sturgis and reinstated Michael Badgley who was also on the roster, but that still means they have had seven kickers in the last three years! At this point surely some question are surely being asked about the special teams evaluation process of the front office as the Chargers have also had four people punt for them during this period.

Moving on from the special teams’ conundrum that is the Chargers, we saw this week’s contender for the best game of the season when the New Orleans Saints hosted the LA Rams and ran out 45-35 winners. The Saints built a big lead only to see the Rams close the gap back to 35 all in the fourth quarter before the Saints extended the lead once more for the win. It was an entertaining game, even if someone like me would have liked to see a little more defence, and that could be the Achilies heel of the Rams. It seemed like Marcus Peters was being picked on in the continuing absence of Aqib Talib who is seen as likely to return from IR in week thirteen. However, whilst the Rams defence has some very high profile names on it, including Dante Fowler who joined the team via trade on deadline day, doesn’t look to have quite gelled yet and are currently ranked only sixteenths by DVOA. The ranking against the run of twenty-fourth by DVOA showed up as Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram did the work on the ground whilst Drew Brees threw for four touchdowns and three hundred and forty-six passing yards. The Rams and Jared Goff were not quiet able to match this efficiency in the air whilst Todd Gurley finished with a modest sixty-eight yards on the ground and now the jockeying at the top of the NFC will get really interesting.

Finally, on Sunday night we had the battle of the 12s as the Green Bay Packers visited the New England Patriots but whilst keeping it relatively close for a lot of the game, the Packers were ultimately done for by the Patriots better consistency. The use of Cordarrelle Patterson as a makeshift running back in this game was effective enough that we might see more of it going forward even when Sony Michel comes back from injury whilst Josh Gordon caught five balls from ten targets to go over one hundred yards for the first time as a Patriot. What this game really showed however, is that so much of a quarterback’s success depends on the infrastructure around them and you get the feeling that there could be a coaching change in the works for Green Bay given the moves the newly installed GM is making.

Other notable things around the league include the Kansas City Chiefs beating the Browns convincingly and the Chiefs have one of the best offensive DVOA ratings ever. Conversely the Buffalo Bills have an historically bad offence, with their offensive DVOA of -53.9% putting them in the bottom ten of offences for the last thirty years. The Chicago Bears beat the Bills to stay atop the NFC North and now have two forty point blowout wins this season. The Carolina Panthers continue their quiet challenge for the playoffs with a big win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take them to 6-2 whilst the Pittsburgh Steelers managed to do the double over the Ravens to stay atop the AFC North. The wheels came off for Washington when they lost both starting offensive guards to injury against the Atlanta Falcons and got beat badly. This could give Washington real problems going forward although they stay a game clear at the top of the NFC East whilst the Falcons have now won three straight and still have an outside shot of pulling themselves back into playoff contention. Speaking of streaks, the Houston Texans have now won six in a row while the Denver Broncos continue to struggle.

Finally, it is my mission to bring you every safety of the season and whilst we did not have any this week, we had three in week eight that I didn’t bring you because I was rushing off to London. That’s a total of eight so far this season and the 28th of October was second Sunday in a row where we had three safeties.

The first I’ll mention is a classic of joined up football where an LA Rams’ punt pins the Green Bay Packers up against their goal line and on their first down of the drive running back Aaron Jones gets met in the hole by Mark Barron and stopped for the safety. The second is combination of comedy of errors and situation awareness as on 3rd & 7 on the eight yard line, the Arizona Cardinals’ Josh Rosen starts in a shotgun formation and drops back to pass into the end zone, and whilst getting tackled tries to throw the ball away and gets called for intentional grounding, giving up the safety anyway. You can’t hold on to the ball in this situation and once again this is what happens to an offence when pinned against its own goal line by a punt. The final safety was again after a punt but this time it was a holding penalty called against Desmond Harrison of the Cleveland Browns in the end zone that results in the safety, and if you seek out the play from the week eight game against the Steelers you will see that it wasn’t exactly a marginal call.

Speaking of which, is it me or have the rule changes settled down over the last few weeks even if the defences to seem to be really struggling to contend. Anyway, I’m off to worry about this weekend’s game, the awful lines we’ve got this week, the trivia question I’m utterly stumped on, and to get on with this week’s newsletter.

Bring on Thursday night football, which looks to be a cracker of a matchup!

Back To My Old Self!

06 Tuesday Nov 2018

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Firstly, I just want to say thank you to everyone who read my post last week – it was my highest viewed post since I’ve been contributing, but more importantly, it was REALLY cathartic to write.

With that said, I’m back to my old self this week, and luckily for you I’ve watched some football! Although, that’s a fairly loose term for what I saw during the Dolphins/Jets game on Sunday night. It was one of the most boring games I’ve watched for a long time, which was highlighted especially as I fell asleep while watching the game for 10 play clock minutes in the third quarter, and missed absolutely nothing! Seriously… I’ve been back and watched it… nothing happened!

That being said, I can imagine Gee would have found some positives in it. The Defences were both pretty strong, helped along by two particularly poor offences. Jets’ rookie quarterback Sam Darnold looked… well, very much like a Rookie. He seemed a bit off the boil, and very much a different player to the one I watched in the Away fixture in week 2. He definitely wasn’t helped by a Centre with a broken finger who was providing him with dud-snaps all game, but to throw 4 interceptions in one game is pretty unforgivable.

On the Miami Offence, one thing that baffled me a little was Frank Gore out snapping, and out running Kenyan Drake by 20 attempts to just 3! I’m not sure if there’s more to it than meets the eye here, but it’s a strange choice to allow the veteran 35 year old more carries than the up and coming potential future of the team’s Running Game who is just finding his feet in his third season in the league. Osweiler wasn’t great either. He’s said he wants to make it impossible for Adam Gase to put Ryan Tannehill back into the lineup when he returns to fitness, but if he wants to do that, he’s got to try a LOT harder when he has the opportunity – his deep passes over the last few weeks have been woefully poor, and his accuracy even at mid-range isn’t where it needs to be.

But, a win is a win as they say, and next week it’s on to… oh no… Green Bay.

Speaking of the Packers, they visited the Patriots on Sunday night [The clue is the big Gillette in the above photo – Ed.] , in what (barring an increasingly unlikely meeting at the Superbowl) looks like it’ll be the last meeting of the 12’s before Brady hangs up his cleats. It was a good game too and had a bit of everything including a nice trick play with Julian Edelman completing a pass for 37 yards. What is really encouraging is that Josh Gordon seems to be finding his feet in New England and is connecting well with Tom Brady. Especially nice to see given the knowledge of his off-field problems which have hindered much of his career.

Elsewhere, the Rams took their first loss of the season, meaning there are now no unbeaten teams. They’ve done well to get this far though to be fair, and the Saints are looking equally good in recent weeks. We could very easily see this being a pre-cursor to the NFC Championship game in January – you heard it here first people! Oh, and that had a slightly negative impact on my bet too, which means the chart now looks like this…

I don’t think Gee or I have mentioned yet that London will be hosting 4 games next year, between Wembley and the new Tottenham stadium. Good news all round, I think. There’s only 3 teams who are yet to play in London, so I would expect at least 2 of the Packers, Panthers and Texans to make the trip over the pond. Selfishly, I really hope the Dolphins come over again, but assuming there are no teams playing here more than once next year, a quarter of the league will be visiting London, which is great! This year’s games were a really good advert for the league too, and caused a lot of people to catch games who wouldn’t normally… although most people seem just to be talking about the toll that 3 games in 3 weeks had on the Wembley turf!

What’s your favourite game that we’ve seen over here in London? And what’s your usual pre-match routine when you visit Wembley? Get in touch on Twitter, and lets have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

2018 Week Nine Picks

04 Sunday Nov 2018

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So after a much more successful pick than I was expecting Thursday night, we turn to the weekend’s game and let’s hope the chasing round this week that is definitely taking its toll doesn’t cause me to have a bad week. Or at least I do, but first let’s get to this week’s trivia question.

‘Having opened the door recently to College Football this week I’m turning to the Owners. It is a matter of record that 13 have been inducted into the Hall of Fame but WHO was the most recent and WHEN was this? 1 point for each.’

So I don’t think there was one this year so I’m relatively confident that the most recent was Jerry Jones who was inducted before last season in 2017.

‘Well, from absolute confidence last week to an absolute guess this week. I wouldn’t even know where to start with a name as I don’t pay attention to team owners outside of the current obvious ones so I’ll guess at the ‘When’ part and say 2012.’

Falcons @ Washington (-1.5)

So Washington are solidly mid-table on offence and defence whilst the Atlanta Falcons have managed to keep themselves top ten in offensive DVOA despite the injuries, but their defence is ranked thirty-first. Washington have been good at home barring a loss to the Colts and at the head of the NFC East I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt at home against one of the most injury plagued teams in the league.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Bears @ Bills (+8.5)

I do not like this line. The Chicago Bears should be favourites against the Buffalo Bills, but their offence is not completely reliable with Mitch Trubisky yet, and the Bills play tough defence if nothing else. However, they are also having to start Nathan Peterman and that fills me with no confidence either. This feels like too many points but with the Bills on a short week I’ll nervously back the Bears.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Chiefs @ Browns (+8.5)

The talk will be of a response to the change of coaching, but I cannot trust a team who have lost two offensive minds in both Hue Jackson and Todd Haley, with a rookie quarterback, and they will have a running backs coach calling plays for the first time. The injury to Tyreek Hill is a worry but the Chiefs are so much better that I’m going to back them to cover this and hope I don’t get bitten by two big lines this week.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Lions @ Vikings (-4.5)

The Detroit Lions made two moves that would seem to make sense in the long term, but right now it doesn’t do that much to help them and this week they are on the road against a Vikings team who are just about keeping themselves in the playoff hunt. The Vikings were actually closer to the Saints last week than the final score indicates and I’m backing them to bounce back in this game. Cue a Lions’ win as I haven’t got them right much at all this season.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Jets @ Dolphins (-3.5)

The Miami Dolphins have really fallen back to earth over the recent weeks, not helped by the shoulder injury to Ryan Tannehill. With another season of injury hindering him it feels like the Dolphins will have to find a new quarterback in the offseason but Brock Osweiler won’t be the solution despite starting this week. The New York Jets look to have their quarterback of the future but right now they have a lot of injuries to their receivers but their defence is ranked tenth by DVOA. With the Dolphins so injured and relying on Brock Osweiler the extra half point makes me nervous so I’m striking out with the Jets in a move I could really regret

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Steelers @ Ravens (-2.5)

This is a big game for the Baltimore Ravens who have fallen back to 4-4 and really can’t afford any more losses in the division. The Steelers are coming off a bye and head up the division but in what is usually a close game I fancy the home team to sneak a win given they have already lost to the Steelers and these teams often split their series.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-6.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defence is playing better and Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting, but I don’t think this is enough for them to beat a Carolina Panthers team who are quietly keeping pace with the best teams this season. Their offence is top five by DVOA as is their overall team and I think they roll in this one at home.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Texans @ Broncos (-2.5)

This is a slightly tricky game for me as the Texans have got their season back on track and the offence is playing better but the injury to Will Fuller is going to hurt their chances. The trade for Demaryius Thomas as replacement receiver makes sense but he won’t have had much time to acclimatise. Meanwhile the Broncos defence may not be the same, but in Von Miller they have someone who can absolutely cause havoc given the Texans poor offensive line. However, despite being better at home there is quite a lot wrong with the Broncos at the moment and so expecting them to win by a field goal is what is causing me hesitation. I haven’t felt strongly about many games this week and in this one I’m going to grab the points for what I think is the better team.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Chargers @ Seahawks (-1.5)

This looks to be a cracking game and a real test for the LA Chargers who have been impressive but travel to the always difficult to play in Seattle. The Seahawks have quietly dragged themselves into playoff contention off the back of defence and running the football but the Chargers have been playing well and are coming off a bye. I’m really looking forward to this game but I hate the line as I feel it’s a toss-up but in the end I fancy the Chargers to continue their good run, even if this is a better opponent.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Rams @ Saints (-1.5)

This the next in a series of great games as the unbeaten Rams travel to the face the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have been playing really well, but will miss rookie defensive end Marcus Davenport as the defence has not been great unlike Drew Brees and the offence. The Rams have not looked great in recent weeks but have kept finding a way to win and this feels like a game where whoever has the ball last is likely to win. I’m finding it hard to pick but given that the Saints are at home and the Rams are unlikely to go the whole season unbeaten I’m going to stick my neck out and back the Saints. I could very easily be wrong but this is going to be such a good game I probably won’t mind anyway.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Packers @ Patriots (-5.5)

The billing of this game is going to be Aaron Rodgers vs Tom Brady, but really it is the New England infrastructure against Aaron Rodgers and I fancy the Patriots to win given the moves the Packers made at the trade deadline. They could well pay off in the next couple of years but right now it makes things harder for Rodgers, but this is still too many points to give him and so whilst I expect the Patriots to win, I think Rodgers will keep it closer than six.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Titans @ Cowboys (-6.5)

I’m not exactly sure what to expect in this game, but given the problems the Cowboys have had on offence I’m not sure that parachuting Amari Cooper in last week via trade will solve them against a Titans team who so often muddy up the game. The Cowboys defence has been much better this year and it wouldn’t surprise me if the home team did get the win, but I’m not backing them to win by seven.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Nine

01 Thursday Nov 2018

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So having got back from London there’s just time to get tonight’s pick in before I head off to band practice.

Gee: Week 8 8-6 Overall 59-62
Dan: Week 8 7-7 Overall 58-63

Raiders @ 49ers (-2.5)

This is a horrible game to pick given that both teams only have one win and you might usually say that one of them has to get a second tonight but with the number of ties we’ve already had this season that might not be the case. The 49ers have injury excuses as I stated on Wednesday but that doesn’t explain the depth of problems they have had all season. That said the Raiders are now in full tear it down mode with their only win coming against a Browns team so riven by coaching problems that both the head coach and offensive coordinator were fired. Getting back the extra half point from the default minus three I’m going to stick to backing the home team on a Thursday night, but it really is a crap shoot.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

‘This is really difficult because neither team have really been up to much. Gee can’t pick up a point on Thursdays, and I think he’ll go for the 49ers as they’re at home, so I’m going to go with Oakland.’

Week 9 Trivia

‘Here is the Week 8 round up and new question for Week 9 in the Trivia Competition.

In the ‘Picks’ we started on 51 each and we can still throw a towel over all 3 but one of us has retaken the lead by a point.

Also Dan and Gee were tied in the trivia – so what happened there?

I asked Who is the Head Coach with Most Career Wins? With a bonus point available for whoever was closest.

Frankly it was no surprise that both Gee and Dan correctly picked out the great Don Shula, so 1 point each just for that. While I am seriously impressed with Gee’s guess of 320 wins which stacks up well against Shula’s regular season record of 328, it was Dan’s ‘guess’ (he gets no clues nor would he want one) of 350 which does the Quarterback Sneak for the ‘close’ bonus at just 3 away from the regular AND post season combined total of 347.

For the record the stats are: Don Shula: 328 Regular and 19 Post Season wins making 347 in a career running from 1963 to 1995 for the Baltimore Colts and Dolphins

And now to Week 9

Having opened the door recently to College Football this week I’m turning to the Owners. It is a matter of record that 13 have been inducted into the Hall of Fame but WHO was the most recent and WHEN was this? 1 point for each.

Good Luck – its Red Zone time’

A Strange Week

31 Wednesday Oct 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

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It has been a strange week here in Leicester. Dan has already captured it from the vantage of Leicester City season ticket holder who can explain it much better than I can so the first thing I’m going to do is point you to his post here.

For those of you who want to stick to the NFL I shall try to resume normal service.

The games of week eight saw the Rams continue their unbeaten start to the season with little a help from Ty Montgomery who has been traded from the Packers but I’ll get to the trades shortly as the deadline passed yesterday. It was a week where the cream of the league continue to rise. Going back to my league tiers I would say that the LA Rams and Kansas City Chiefs have been joined by the New Orleans Saints who have been a little lucky with a couple of wins (you can’t predict Justin Tucker missing his first ever extra point at any level) but have only one loss. The New England Patriots have also turned a corner and are now 6-2 and top of their division.

The Cincinnati Bengals remain competitive but have slipped to second in their division thanks to a three game losing streak and barely managed to beat the Tampa Bay Bucaneers who staged a remarkable fourth quarter comeback off the back of Ryan Fitzpatrick coming into the game. The Bengals defence is now ranked twenty-fifth in the league and there are real problems in the secondary so losing edge rusher Carl Lawson to a torn ACL really hurts, although at least the Bengals have some depth at pass rusher. Still it feels like they are slipping back, as are the Baltimore Ravens who fell back to 4-4 despite being more balanced this season so suddenly the Pittsburgh Steelers are top of the division. The Carolina Panthers are almost quietly grinding out wins as are the LA Chargers who both have joined the Bengals with five wins but I fancy both teams are in better situations than mine. The Houston Texans have now won five straight and have a two game lead on the Tennessee Titans who have been competitive but struggled and the Jacksonville Jaguars who seem to be imploding. Finally, they may be doing it with strength in the lines and running the ball, which you wouldn’t think would work these days but Washington have five wins and what looks to be a favourable schedule going forward. I’m not sure if I trust them, but they stand atop of the NFC East.

The NFC North is currently split between the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears show promise but it is hard to trust Mitch Trubisky and no defence is good enough with the current rules to really dominated as they could in the past. The Vikings are putting up points with Kirk Cousins but the defence has regressed, although there is no shame in losing to the Saints at the moment. The Seattle Seahawks have also now picked up four wins with an improvement on the offensive line and the second ranked defence by DVOA. The Philadelphia Eagles are struggling, but got the win in London and I like the trade for Golden Tate in terms of trying to help this team win now by giving Carson Wentz a proven receiving options. Meanwhile the Miami Dolphins have regressed back to 4-4 as injuries look to have hampered them and whilst Adam Gase can manufacture some offence, you are always going to struggle with Brock Osweiler starting multiple games and I’m just not sure what the long term plan is in Miami.

Lurking with three wins the Green Bay Packers looked good on Sunday, and you wouldn’t have bet against Aaron Rodgers getting the win against the Rams if he’d got on the field with two minutes left but for the aforementioned Ty Montgomery fumble on a kick-off return that put pay to that. I still don’t know what to expect out of the Detroit Lions who run the ball well finally, and do not much else well. They do have a couple of big wins but every time I think they’re turning the corner they lose.

The Indianapolis Colts do seem to be turning a corner despite only having three wins with Andrew Luck looking more like himself. The defence also seems to have improved with rookie linebacker Darius Leonard catching my eye wen I looked at the coaching tape of him last week

However, it’s these next teams where we get into the run of the mill bad teams. The Denver Broncos have some good early wins but the defence just isn’t the same and Case Keenum has not been the answer they hoped for at quarterback. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could well have improved on defence since firing Mike Smith as their defensive coordinator and at least made the last couple of games competitive. But, when Ryan Fitzpatrick is outplaying your franchise quarterback you have a serious issues on offence and it could well mean a complete reset of the franchise in the off-season. The Atlanta Falcons have been so riven by injury that they fall into this tier despite Matt Ryan ranking fifth by Football Outsiders’ DYAR stat, which represents a quarterback’s total value. The Dallas Cowboys have just traded a first round pick for Amari Cooper but it seems like this is a desperate move and despite improvements on defence this team have struggled and who knows what could happen, but I’m not expecting a big turnaround this season although they are only two games back on Washington despite only having three wins.

The final tier gives us the truly awful. The Buffalo Bills at least play hard on defence, even ranking fourth by DVOA but their offence has struggled all year and with Josh Allen’s injury are not even losing productively as Derek Anderson is helping no one develop. This is not quite the same for the Arizona Cardinals who have been equally awful on offence but at least Josh Rosen is showing some moments, I just feel sorry for Larry Fitzgerald who frankly deserves better at the end of a tremendous career. The Cleveland Browns were the first team to fire their head coach, finally letting Hue Jackson go and firing Todd Haley as offensive coordinator as well. The Browns don’t have any history of doing things right in this iteration of the franchise and so it is hard to see things really working out for them in the long term as they need to persuade a really good coach to take over. I just don’t know who that would be given the owner’s history. The San Francisco 49ers at least have an excuse with losing Jerick McKinnon and Jimmy Garoppolo early in the season, but it has to be worrying that more of their young players are not playing better. There could be concerns over the direction the franchise is heading in now the excitement of the takeover by Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch is beginning to fade. The other one win team who at least have some talent are the New York Giants who bet on being able to turn around Eli Manning and were just wrong. They seem to have realised this as they have been trading away players from the defence but this is a lost season and they need to find a new quarterback for next season and shoring up the offensive line would be good idea too.

Finally, and in a world of their own are the Oakland Raiders who have shown flashes of competitiveness, but having traded away both Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper, and are clearly tearing things down in Jon Gruden’s first season. It’s one thing to amass all these picks, but they’ll need to hit if they are to make a success of their move to Las Vegas and as the Cleveland Browns showed, you can have all the picks and even amass the talent but without good coaching it won’t win games. I don’t know where this is going as I can’t see into the future, but it doesn’t feel well managed so far, although the Cooper trade at least looks like a good deal.

So there we go, all the teams rushed through and you will have notice a lot more trade talk as this has definitely increased in recent years. The Eagles demonstrated last year what you could do to build a roster with the right trades and have tried it again. The Rams and Saints are both clearly in win now mode with them both making moves before the deadline despite having quarterbacks at very different stages of their career. The Packers traded away several players for picks that might help in the long run but makes things more difficult for Aaron Rodgers, and whilst I wouldn’t bet against him still dragging this team to the playoffs, the trades didn’t exactly help. I think this is a new world that we will get used to and I will be curious to see how much effect the new players will have on the teams they have joined. It’s hard not to be a fan of teams trying more things to win though.

Whatever your sport… it’s a bit irrelevant really isn’t it?

30 Tuesday Oct 2018

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

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This is going to be a tough one, and I’m going to go off topic. Stick with me guys…

The football started early for me this week, with the Dolphins taking part in Thursday Night football in a fairly convincing win for the Texans. Brocktober is well and truly over, and his performance against the Bears a few weeks back feels like a hell of a long way away now! Hardly surprising when you look at how broken the Dolphins Offence is, and how powerful the Texans Defence can be. It’s never fun coming up against JJ Watt, but that’s especially true when you’re as banged up as Miami. And just like that, we’re at 4-4. Middle of the road. Standard Dolphins.

And that’s about all of the football I managed to watch this weekend, mainly because of something which happened on Saturday night which made it just all feel so… irrelevant.

If you’ve been following the Blog and Pod for some time, you’ll know that outside of the NFL, I’m a huge Leicester City fan (and you probably now know what way this post is going to go!). I’ve been a season ticket holder for the last 10 years and have seen some incredible highs, but Saturday night was one of the lowest and worst experience of my life as a football fan.

You won’t have escaped the news of the death of our owner and Chairman Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha, along with the two pilots and two other passengers.

Saturday started off OK – I went down to the King Power stadium and watched Leicester draw with West Ham. Not fantastic, but it’ll do. But then about half an hour after I got home from the game, I started hearing reports of an accident down at the ground. An accident which involved the Owner of our club’s Helicopter. And apparently, it was on fire outside the stadium after having lost control after takeoff, going into a spin and hitting the ground.

At first you think “well, that’s got to be over exaggerated” and you assume everyone managed to get out. But then we saw the footage, and it was truly heartbreaking. The helicopter had been a regular feature in and around the ground (I live very close so used to see it flying around fairly often) and it was well known that the owner and other dignitaries used it as a taxi after every game to take them back to London. The collective hearts of all Leicester City fans stopped at the sight of it on the news, as we had a good idea who would be on board.

As news started filtering through, it became clear that Vichai would be among the deceased, and I’ve been pretty distracted and emotional ever since. I took a walk down to the stadium on Sunday afternoon to pay my respects and was met with hundreds of fellow fans and an incredibly somber mood. But what struck me wasn’t just the sense of feeling around the place, but the vast spread of people who were there paying respect – not just Leicester City fans, but fans of Nottingham Forest, Derby, Leeds, Liverpool… it was clear that the whole of football had been shaken by this tragedy. And in fact, not even just fans of football – people who had no interest in football but had been touched by his incredible generosity outside of the game were there too.

That shouldn’t have surprised me when I think back to it. Vichai was one of the most incredibly generous people to have passed through Leicester. He and his family donated literally millions to Leicester’s hospitals (in particular through their Children’s charity), Universities and the city itself. During his time at the football club, he wrote off over £100million in debts as a personal gift to the club. He bought our stadium so we we are no longer paying rent to a developer. He spent millions and millions on the squad, signed off on a huge new training facility, and the fans and people of Leicester loved him for it.

Let’s not forget that it was under his stewardship that we did the unthinkable, overcoming all odds to win the Premier League. For those of you who aren’t football fans, that’s like the Jets winning the super bowl! (Sorry Ryan, I had to lighten this up somehow!).

And it wasn’t just the big things – he was also responsible for buying every fan a beer on his birthday, Mince pies at Christmas, Bacon Sandwiches for breakfast and Scarves for people making long trips to Away games, and he even arranged for a bottle of Whiskey and glasses to be left in the Memorial Garden at the King Power stadium on match days for people to have a toast to their lost friends and family (something that I’d seen many times and always wondered who left it there).

It’s truly incredible when you think about it. How many other clubs owners have given so much to the fans and local community, and made such a connection? I don’t know how we got so lucky! I’m not sure Mike Ashley has given the Newcastle fans as much as a bad cold!

He and his son Aiyawatt (known to us fans as ‘Top’) were also amazingly ambitious. When they signed Kasper Schmeichel in 2011, they told him they wanted to be in the Champions League within 6 years, at a time when we were struggling to break out of the Championship’s mid table. When we first went up into the Premier League, they said to the press that they’d be in the Champions League within 3 years, and despite how ludicrous it sounded at the time, look what happened!

As you can hopefully see, I feel quite indebted to this man, and I’ve been gutted since Sunday evening when his passing was officially announced. But for the club, life will go on. Hopefully, when he feels ready, we’ll see Top take over as chairman and keep his father’s legacy alive. It’s a legacy that all of us as fans want to make sure is fulfilled and we owe it to him to do anything we can to make sure it does. There’s talk of a statue, or of the stadium being renamed, but whatever happens, Vichai and his contribution to our club and our city will live on forever.

Thank you, Khun Vichai. Rest in peace.

Until next time (when I promise I’ll be more cheerful, or your money back!)

2018 Week Eight Picks

28 Sunday Oct 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

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Okay, so week eight didn’t exactly start with the turnaround I was looking for but thanks to family weekend things suddenly I’m facing a time crunch so let’s see if skipping quickly through the games gives me better luck, but before that there’s the minor matter of our now tied trivia competition.

‘Who is the Head Coach with Most Career Wins?’

Now there’s a couple of thoughts I had about this. I don’t think the answer is anyone currently coaching or I’d know about it (I also think the commentators would be mentioning it most weeks) so then you start getting into the big historical coaches but this is as much about length of service as quality so say Curly Lambeau rather than Vince Lombardi and the more I think about the more I’m sure that Dan has an advantage here because I think it is someone who coached the Dolphins for a long long time. I’m going for Don Shula who racked up something like, say three hundred and twenty wins.

‘This is the first time I’ve felt really confident about the answer of a trivia question this year! The ‘Winningest’ head coach is the legendary Mr. Don Shula. I think his final win total was somewhere around 350 games, so I’ll go with 350!’

Eagles @ Jaguars (+2.5)

So this week’s London game pits two teams coming off a loss against each other, and this has me worried because Blake Bortles has played very well in London in recent years, which is something he has not done in a while. However, there is something just not right with the Jaguars at the moment so London is a chance to get back to winning or implode against the Super Bowl champions. I really hate this line but in the end I just can’t trust the team who’ve lost four of the last five games.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Jets @ Bears (-6.5)

I don’t entirely trust the DVOA ranking of the Bears as they seem somewhat high but I do think they are much better than the Jets and whilst the Jets might have the better quarterback over the next couple of years, with the offensive scheme of the Bears I’m backing the more talented roster to win out.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Buccaneers @ Bengals (-4.5)

Gah, I do not like this line and I can totally see this going wrong but this is too important a game for the Bengals, and at home I have to try to trust them. The emotional hedges have not exactly cushioned the blow of the recent losses so with all the talk of a reaction and tackling I’m hoping the Bengals turn it round this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Browns @ Steelers (-8.5)

The Browns have played so many overtime games this year and have only got blown out once, but that was against the Chargers and the Steelers certainly have the offensive fire power to do the same and are coming off a bye. I’m tempted by the Steelers but this feels like too many points to me.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Broncos @ Chiefs (-10.5)

Going into Arrowhead Stadium is difficult at the best of times, but with the way the Chiefs are playing at the moment it is downright terrifying. The Broncos may be coming off a hugely convincing road win but it was over the Cardinals and this is a very different task. The points are kind of worrying but I fancy the Chiefs to steam roller almost any team at home the way they are playing at the moment.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Seahawks @ Lions (-2.5)

The Lions seem to have found a formula on offense through running the ball and have settled down under Matt Patricia after a rocky start but they welcome a Seahawks team who have also rounded into some form. Having won convincingly in London two weeks ago the Seahawks face a sterner test on the road and I just fancy the Lions offence to win out in this and will be a sterner test than the Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Washington @ Giants (+0.5)

The Giants have started trading players away from their twenty-eighth ranked defence whilst the offence continues to misfire. I’m never sure what to expect out of Washington but I think they are the better team and whilst strange things can happen in divisional matchups, I’m not going to pick it to happen.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Ravens @ Panthers (+1.5)

This should be a cracking game. The Panthers were behind for nearly all of their game against the Eagles last week but Cam Newton found a way to lead three straight scoring drives in the fourth quarter turn a terrible start into a win. They welcome a Ravens team who have been really competitive this season but have still lost three games, although it took Just Tucker’s first ever missed extra point at any level for the Saints to get a win. However, getting points at home I’m going to take the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Colts @ Raiders (+2.5)

In the cold light of day the Oakland Raiders’ trade of Amari Cooper looks like a good deal for the team, but it does nothing to help in the short term and facing the Colts who are heading in the right direction and coming off a big win I expect both teams to continue their streak.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Packers @ Rams (-9.5)

Gah, the Rams look so good at the moment and are finally home after three road games and clearly they are respected because this is the largest ever line against Aaron Rodgers. The Packers will hope their bye week will have worked wonders for Rodgers’ knee and whilst I expect Rams to win, I just can’t hand this many points to Aaron Rodgers.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

49ers @ Cardinals (-0.5)

The Cardinals were so bad against the Broncos last week, and whilst there should be some reaction, the noises surrounding Patrick Peterson won’t help and so whilst the 49ers are not exactly flying this season, they have managed to be competitive and I fancy them to run out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Saints @ Vikings (-0.5)

The re-run of last season’s divisional game sees the Saints return to the US Bank Stadium and the scene of Stefon Diggs ridiculous game winning catch. The Vikings are a different team this season and although neither side of the ball are top ten in the league by DVOA like last year, the defence in particular has struggled but at least they have put a string of three wins together. In what should be a cracking game I’m going to back the team with the top five offence even if the Vikings have been playing better of late and could have Everson Griffen back.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Patriots @ Bills (+14.5)

There’s a reason this line is so big, the Bills who have been bad all season got blown out by the Colts last week with Derek Anderson throwing three interceptions and fumbling the ball. The Patriots turned round their offence with the return of Julian Edelman and the addition of Josh Gordon a few weeks ago and look like they should run out comfortable winners. In the last three years the Bills have only won one game (in week four and the Patriots are notorious slow starters) and in the last three ganes the Patriots have won by at least sixteen so whilst this line is high, I’m going to swing big with the Patriots

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

AAF: Darius Leonard

28 Sunday Oct 2018

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

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So getting back to watching a full game of coaching tape I wanted to take a look at something else on defence and a quick check of the NFL league leaders brought me back to a player I was hearing buzz about earlier in the season, namely Darius Leonard of the Indianapolis Colts who currently leads the league in tackles. So for this week’s amateur adventures in film I watched the Colts number fifty-three as they hosted the Buffalo Bills.

Sticking on the game the first thing that leapt out to me about Leonard was his fast feet that were twitching on the snap of the ball and allowed him a quick response to what was going on in front of him. A true three down backer he plays weakside or will linebacker in the Colts base 4-3 defence but the Colts spent a lot of this game reacting to the Bills’ 11 personnel package with nickel and dime defences but Leonard didn’t leave the game until the Bill’s final drive in the fourth quarter. This is not surprising as the rookie second round pick is a long athlete who very much moves well in space. He tends move round blocks although I did see him take on the Bills’ fullback Patrick DiMarco, shed the bloc and make the tackle, but I did also saw lineman and tight ends get their hands on Leonard and take him out the play. However, mostly he made the tackle, which is hardly surprisingly given he leads the league in tackles despite missing a game through an ankle injury. He is always around the ball and even if he is not the first there he will be helping with the tackle. It’s strong trait and whether he’s quickly diagnosing the play and rushing forward, reacting having dropped into a zone, spying on the running back, or following someone on a route he reacts and gets there quickly. A couple of times he couldn’t quite make the initial tackle and on one play Chris Ivory got round him to the edge and made a big pickup although Leonard did make the tackle in the end.

Leonard is not a big hitter and doesn’t look to set the edge which is why he play on the weak side, but he very much looks like a modern linebacker, athletic and able to play in space, which is increasingly necessary in the current NFL. The tackle statistic is one that is a slightly dubious one to put too much faith in as a bad team will give a player more opportunities to make a tackle as the opposing offence will be on the field longer but in a game where the Bills kept giving the Colts the ball with short fields, the defence was on the field without much rest and Leonard kept coming. It is early but he looks very promising and already the Colts defence ranks over ten places higher than last season by DVOA and I would say Darius Leonard had a big part in that.