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The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

The Wrong Football

Tag Archives: Las Vegas Raiders

AAF: Chargers End of Game Play Calling

15 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film, Gee's Thoughts

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Anthony Lynn, Carl Nassib, Donald Parham Jr., Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton, Justin Herbert, Kalen Ballage, Keenan Allen, LA Chargers, Lamarcus Joyner, Las Vegas Raiders, Mike Williams, NFL, Nick Kwiatkoski, Trayvon Mullen, Trey PipKins III

I am trying something a little bit different this week with my Amateur Adventures in Film post because as I have discussed on the podcast, I am struggling to find time to grind an entire game’s worth of tape, even if I am only looking at one side of the ball in a game.

However, having complained about the LA Chargers play calling at the end of their loss to the Las Vegas Raiders I thought I would take a look at the coaching tape and go through it in a little bit more detail, particularly as having gone back and watched the whole game after recording the podcast on Monday there was another red-zone play that caught my eye that I wanted to contrast against the final two plays.

Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert had led the Chargers seventy-one yards using up four minutes and thirty-one seconds of play clock and using all three timeouts, but spiked the ball with six seconds left on the clock and only needing four yards to score a touchdown and win the game. Perhaps not the best clock management, but the Chargers were in a position where they could win the game, yet here is where the problems start.

The Chargers’ first call on second and four with six seconds left was a fade pass to Mike Williams who had lined up on the right side of the field with the team in a shotgun formation with 11 personnel (one running back & one tight-end) on the field. There was no motion and so this was an execution play relying on the six foot four Williams to come down with a contested catch in the back corner of the endzone. It was a nice enough thrown ball, but this was really a fifty-fifty shot and it did not work.

I am not a huge fan of the goal line fade route, but calling one from four yards out really gives the pass target a very tight area with which to work. Additionally, the Chargers were static before the snap of the ball so there was no indication of the coverage and more importantly they didn’t make the Raiders’ defence have to adjust with seconds left on the clock and the game on the line.

I knew I didn’t like this call when I watched the game highlights on Monday, and was wrong about the player targeted when recording our podcast that night, but there is an additional factor that made these two end of game plays worse, so let me take you back to the second quarter for an end zoneplay that resulted in a touchdown.

The Chargers are lined up on the Raiders five-yard line on fourth and one. The Chargers come out in 11 personnel and line up in a single back formation. First they motion tight-end Hunter Henry right so he swaps sides of the formation and now lines up on the right-side of the offensive line and a Raiders defender follows him (I’d love to identify them properly but the Raiders’ silver on white numbers are not that easy to pick up on coaching tape). The Chargers then send receiver Jalen Guyton left in jet motion left before the snap of the ball with Raiders corner Trayvon Mullen following. The play is a simple toss right, but the blocking in this play is what caught my eye when watching the game on Tuesday as Keenan Allen was lined up close to the formation on the right hand side and when the ball was snapped, Allen blocks in pushing Raiders defensive end Carl Nassib left. This isn’t a pancake block or anything physically impressive because it doesn’t have to be, as Herbert tosses the ball right to running back Kalen Ballage, all Allen had to do was push Nassib far enough left as the defender rushes up field that Ballage can get outside of him, which is what happens. This has the effect that it frees up right tackle Trey Pipkins III to pull right without worrying about Nassib and he blocks safety Lamarcus Joyner as Hunter Henry takes the unidentified Raiders defender who followed his motion, which when combined with Dan Feeney getting to the second level and cutting line-backer Nick Kwiatkoski and delaying him just enough, means there is enough of a lane that Ballage can run the ball in for a touchdown with hardly any contact.

I was hoping to diagram this play up, but I am still looking for the right application to allow me to do that and I ran out of time. What I liked about the play was the double motion before the ball and the inventive blocking scheme. Now, I think you should already be able to see the contrast between that scoring play and the static goal line fade that didn’t work. However, whilst I can understand wanting to throw the ball quickly to get another chance if you only have six seconds on the click, with one second on the clock you know that this play is it so it had better be a really good one so let’s take a quick look at that.

The Chargers line up in shotgun with what I think is 12 personnel, but this time the have a quad of players on the left side of the formation, and tight-end Donald Parham lined up on his own on the right. Once again, the Chargers are static before the snap and they throw another fade right to Parham who caught the ball, but couldn’t hold onto it as he hit the ground. On the left side of the play Keenan Allen drops into a receiver screen position behind the other three Chargers’ players blocking, although the Raiders have an extra defender in the area. However, I do not understand why with the game on the line the Chargers abandon motion before the snap, there is no kind of trickery just another fifty-fifty fade pass. It is even more frustrating when you see such a nice goal-line play earlier in the game like the one that I wrote up.

I developed a lot of respect for Anthony Lynn whilst watching Hard Knocks before the season started, but a combination of game management and play calling lost what was a winnable game and I really struggle to believe that the final fade pass was the best play the Chargers had available to them.

The Chargers keep losing close games, and if you look at the final drive in this game I think you can see why and the combination of game management and play calling like this is a big part of why. It is reasonable to expect Justin Herbert to get better at clock management as he gains experience, but the team have to be calling the right plays and at this point, I think it is fair to wonder if the Chargers will correct it and if they don’t, then big changes could be coming this off-season.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Eight

29 Thursday Oct 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, Picks Competition, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8 Picks

Well, week seven was pretty good to me as I picked up three points on Dan so I achieve my next target of getting his lead down to single digits so now I need to get within a couple of points and we’ll have a proper competition. There’s plenty of time left so let’s get to work on week eight’s competition Thursday.

Gee:Week 7:  7 – 7Overall:  49 – 57
Dan:Week 7:  4 –10Overall:  56 – 50

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

This is an odd game to pick as both teams are coming off a loss, but the Atlanta Falcons only have one win this season and the Panthers have now established themselves as a competitive franchise despite the rebuild on defence and the number of veterans who left or retired in the off-season. The consensus lines and numbers are suggesting I take the Falcons and they did run the Lions close in week seven, but right now I have a lot more faith in the Panthers and as they are ranked eight places better than the Falcons by DVOA and are at home on a Thursday night I am going to go for the Panthers as they only have to win by a field goal to cover this line. I am aware that my old maxim of always back the home team on a Thursday night unless there was a really good reason to didn’t hold up, but I have a lot more faith in the coaching of the Panthers so that is where I am putting my faith.

Gee’s Pick:     Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Panthers

Survivor Competition

We held serve last week with the strategy of picking against the Jets maintaining a 100% record, and there is little to suggest that will change this week with them taking on the Chiefs, but having lost with the Chiefs against the Raiders earlier this season I have to look. somewhere else in week eight. Looking at the matchups and the teams I have left I think my best option is to select the Packers hosting the Vikings and just hope I don’t’ get any divisional weirdness. Dan has gone in a different direction grabbing the Buccaneers visiting the Giants, which certainly makes sense as a pick.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 5

Week 8 Selection:

Gee:    Packers
Dan:    Buccaneers

Bold Prediction of the Week

So Dan allowed both of my bold predictions on the podcast this week  in a triumph of doing some preparation ahead of recording, but also ensuring I have to keep doing something I fundamentally disagree with.

My first prediction was the Tua Tagovailoa will have more passing yards against the Rams than fellow rookie quarterback Justin Herbert will against the Broncos.

Secondly, the Bills will score more points this week against the Patriots than they did against the Jets in week seven.

2020 Week Seven Picks

25 Sunday Oct 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Arizona Cardinals, Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Covid-19, Derek Henry, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, LA Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, Mike McCarthy, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Nick Foles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Sean McVay, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Tom Brady

I am so annoyed with myself regarding the result of the Thursday night game because as much the numbers were telling me one thing, I wrote that the Giants had been playing hard, I knew that the Eagles were fighting injuries and I don’t know why I thought the Eagles were going to be four points clear. Luckily Dan made the same mistake but I need to make sure that I am careful with the lines that I am offered in what looks to be a tough week of picks.

Early Games:

The king of the early games is the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers taking on the unbeaten Tennessee Titans in a something has got to give match that is my game of the week. The Titans have come back strongly from their Covid-19 outbreak and won two games in six days but their defense is creaking and not as strong as last year whilst the Steelers are top ten in all phases of the game. I haven’t had a chance to watch the Steelers yet this season so I am really looking forward to seeing if Ryan Tannehill can maintain his level of performance against the league’s second ranked defense by DVOA as well as what physical feat Derek Henry can manage next. This is a meeting of two hard nosed football teams and is not one to be missed.

The other game I am really interested to see the result of is the New Orleans Saints coming of a bye hosting the 3-3 Carolina Panthers. This should be a fun divisional matchup where the Panthers may have lost to the Bears last week, but they will still pose a stiff challenge to a Saints team that just hasn’t clicked this season despite their talent on paper.

My thoughts on the other early games:

  • Both the Lions and the Falcons are coming off wins, but the Lions are going to need to do a lot more to convince whilst we will soon find out if the Falcons turn around last week was a bounce back after their coach was fired or if it is something that can be built upon.
  • The Bills have lost two tough games in a row and some cracks are showing in their defense so a trip to face the Jets is probably just the pick me up they need. I’m not sure about the line, particularly with a number of Bills’ players testing positive for Covid-19, but it’s hard to see where the Jets are going to get a win from at this point.
  • The second battle of Ohio of the year gives the Bengals a chance to avenge their earlier loss against a Browns team whose quarterback situation is even murkier with Baker Mayfield nursing injured ribs. The Bengals need to learn how to finish having taken a twenty-one point early lead against the Colts last week so we shall have to see if the coaching staff can get things heading in the right direction.
  • The Cowboys were abysmal on Monday and the noise surrounding the coaching staff this week were not exactly encouraging although Mike McCarthy does have a point about anonymous sources. Still, if the Cowboys can’t be a struggling Washington team then it could well be time for full panic stations in Dallas for those who are not there already.
  • The Packers will want to prove that last week’s performance was a one off, and it will certainly help that no-one can confuse the Texans defense with the Bucs separated as they are by twenty-four places in the DVOA rankings. The Texans are a team that I need to watch soon to get a better feel for them but I think their offence could give the Packers defense some problems so this could be one of the more entertaining games of the week.

Lions @ Falcons (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Bills @ Jets (+12.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Browns @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Cowboys @ Washington (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Packers @ Texans (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Panthers @ Saints (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Steelers @ Titans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Late Games:

The highlight of the late games for me is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers riding high from their convincing win over the Packers travelling to take on the high scoring Raiders coming of the bye. I clearly don’t have a great feel for Raiders as in week five I stated they would struggle against the Chiefs with their defense ranked in the thirties by DVOA and yet they won that gamet. That said, the Buccaneers defense is a very different proposition to the Chiefs and with the Raiders only managing seven sacks so far this season you can seen Tom Brady being comfortable and picking apart that same thirtieth ranked defense. If the Buccaneers can get more of their receives healthy and in sync with the Buccaneers they could be very scary by the end of the year and this will be a good test of how serious a threat they are.

Late game thoughts:

  • The Chiefs are giving a lot of points to a Broncos team who have won two straight including prevailing over the Patriots last week. I do not think the Broncos have a defense that can stymie the Chiefs that much, but I do wonder if this divisional game might be closer than this line suggests and could have a surprise or two in store.
  • The Patriots struggled last week and Cam Newton did not look good returning from Covid-19 but Bill Belichick teams seldom lose two weeks in a row even if they also don’t usually have a losing record. The 49ers at 3-3 are hanging in despite their injury list and this could be an intriguing game, particularly with Kyle Shanahan scheming again the Patriots defence.
  • The Jaguars are not good, but this is a lot of points to lay for a 1-4 Chargers team whose only win was a close fought affair against the Bengals in week one. As much as rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has impressed, I wonder if they can win this game as convincingly as the line suggests or if this game will be close given how often the Chargers seem to be in close games.

Buccaneers @ Raiders (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Chiefs @ Broncos (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

49ers @ Patriots (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Jaguars @ Chargers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Sunday Night Football:

Seahawks @ Cardinals (+3.5)

The Sunday night game showcases the NFC West meeting of the Seattle Seahawks amd the Arizona Cardinals. The curious thing about the Cardinals is that Kyler Murray only completed nine of his twenty-four attempts against the Cowboy last week as they still ran out easy winners, but they will need to be more efficient than that this week as despite their problems on defense, the Seahawks offence with Russell Wilson playing so well is more than capable of keeping up with the Cardinals. This is a game that definitely has the potential to be a really good contest and whilst I think I do give the edge to the Seahawks, I am not convinced by this line.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Monday Night Football

Bears @ Rams (-5.5)

This is an intriguing game where I think the line might be off. The LA Rams have shown plenty of potential this season but are probably a tier below the front runners in the NFC. This is a real test for the Rams as whilst the visiting Chicago Bears are once again limited on offence and relying on their defense to keep them in games, this formula has been enough for them win five games so far this season. The Bears definitely have the players to disrupt quarterback Jared Goff with pressure and so I wonder how the Rams offence will look and whether this is a close tense game or if Sean McVay can scheme enough productivity that the streaky Nick Foles led Bears offence struggles to keep up. A fine matchup to finish off the week.

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Week Three Picks

27 Sunday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Covid-19, Dallas Cowboys, Drew Brees, Green Bay Packers, Josh Allen, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, Michael Thomas, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Russel Wilson, Sean McVay, Seattle Seahawks, Stefon Diggs, Week 3 Picks

It’s been an tough week, but Dan will be cheered a little by the Dolphins getting their first win of the season. I know that one team will leave the match of the Bengals and Eagles with their first win of the season, but I wouldn’t like to say which. In theory there should be more 1-2 or 2-1 teams that winless or lossless teams, but I’m not sure how easy that will be to pick this week once the lines are in place.

My other concern is that we have our first positive Covid-19 test of a player since the season started, and now that games have been for long enough to be through the incubation period of the virus we shall see truly how the Covid protols hold up.

Early Games:

I think there are two stand out games in the early slate of games, although there is still plenty of interest in all games.

The Buffalo Bills host the LA Rams, which is a fascinating matchup of the Sean McVay’s rejuvenated Rams’ offence against a the Bills defense who have slipped out of the top ten by DVOA so far this season, but should provide an interesting matchup. I’m also curious to see if Josh Allen can continue his streak of throwing for over three hundred yards thanks to off-season addition of Stefon Diggs and a possible further improvement in the young quarterback’s play. I’m not looking forward to picking the game but I definitely think this is one to watch.

The other game that leaps out of the early slate is the 2-0 Las Vegas Raiders travelling to take on the New England Patriots. The Raiders offence looks promising, but as I said in my preview, the Raiders won’t be able to take advantage of this development if their defense doesn’t improve markedly and whilst a ranking of thirtieth by DVOA is technically an improvement on last season, it won’t be enough for them to be serious contenders. I think this is where they get a dose of reality as the New England Patriots may only just be top ten in overall DVOA but boy Cam Newton looked good last week in their close loss to the Seahawks. I trust Belichick and his staff to make a good enough defense by mid-season for them to be competitive and I think both teams leave this game with a 2-1 record.

Other things of interest:

  • I am curious to see if the Atlanta Falcons get their season turned around and it feels to me more likely that the Falcons will get their first win than both team’s current streak continues. That said, the Bears top ten defense might contain the Falcons offence, whilst the questions around Bears’ quarterback Mitchell Trubisky will not be answered by his performance against the Falcons’s twenty-eighth ranked defense.
  • The Eagles may well get their first win this season, but asking them to win by a clear touchdown against a team that has kept both games within a touchdown as Joe Burrow impresses early.
  • The Browns got a good win last week, but this is another line where I’m not sure it’s really justified. The Washington Football Team are not good, but whilst I only saw a quarter of the Cardinal’s offence going against the Football Team’s defense, I was impressed with what I saw from the Cardinals and Washington’s defence is ranked first by DVOA. I was also impressed by what the Browns did last week, but I think the Browns are going to have to prove it to me before I start picking them with this kind of line.
  • This might be a trap, but with a defense that is ranked twentieth by DVOA and an offence that seems to have real problems I am really not sure that the Vikings can turn it round. The Titans may have been in two close games, but they have won them both and I have a feeling they will run out close winners. However, there are both numbers and record reasons to think that the Vikings might do something in this game, if nothing else because the question is are the Titans really good enough to start the season 3-0. I’m really not sure.
  • The 49ers are having all kinds of injury problems and still are favourites to beat the New York Giants. Even though they will be missing Saquon Barkley I like the Giants to keep this one closer than five points at home.
  • I have a feeling the Texans might just be bad this season. The offence is struggling without DeAndre Hopkins and the defence hasn’t inspired. I think the depth the roster has lost through trading away draft picks is hurting this team and that GM Bill O’Brien has let down coach Bill O’Brien. It’s not impossible that the Steelers will have a let down this game, but at home I like them to win and cover a line where the half point scares, except the consensus is another half point higher. I would stay away from this game if I could but I can’t.

Bears @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Rams @ Bills (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Bills

Bengals @ Eagles (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

Washington @ Browns (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Titans @ Vikings (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

Raiders @ Patriots (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

49ers @ Giants (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Texans @ Steelers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Late Games:

There’s several interest contests in the late games this Sunday, but the pick has to the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Seattle Seahawks. This is going to see two teams powered by their offence do battle and it could well be this game is decided by who has the ball last. The interesting thing is that the disparity between offence and defense is actually biggest for the Seahawks, but Russel Wilson is playing so well that I’m confident that this will be a great game, but very possibly another close one for the Cowboys and I very much doubt that the best special teams in the league by DVOA through week two will gift them anything on special teams like the Falcons did last Sunday.

Notes from the other late games:

  • The Jests are such a mess that this line is massive, and is actually higher by consensus, which means there could be value in picking the Colts. I’m really not sure where to go in this game as although I expect the Colts to win, are they going to be dominant for a second week in a row?
  • The Panthers are still looking for their first win of the season, but with the Chargers giving the Chiefs a tough game last week despite being forced last minute to start rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. However, the injuries are still piling up for the Chargers again so whilst I like them to win this game, I think the Panthers could well keep this one close.
  • The Bucs are my survivor pick of the week, based on the injuries that the Broncos currently have and chasm between them by overall DVOA. The Broncos have played tougher than I expected, but wile I think the Bucs will win this game the line worries me. I want to stay away but as I can’t I’m going to grab the points at one of the few places where there is still a definite home field advantage, or at least early in the season.
  • I’ve seen a quarter of one game of the Cardinals offence so I really can’t draw any firm conclusions, but I did lke what I saw and it does feel like the Cardinals have enough to beat a Lions team who seem to be the same again under Matt Patricia. I will be curious to see if the Lions can be more competitive this week.

Jets @ Colts (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Panthers @ Chargers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Buccaneers @ Broncos (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Lions @ Cardinals (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Sunday Night Football:

Packers @ Saints (-3.5)

I think I have to say that I was wrong about the Packers. I thought they were prime candidates for regression after last season and the lack of receivers they added to the offence, but they have come out and scored forty points each week and looked dominant against the Lions in week two. There are questions surrounding the Saints at the moment and Drew Brees in particular. This could well be the beginning of the end for the forty-one year old quarterback, but any offence is going to miss a piece as important as Michael Thomas is to the Saints and so whilst I don’t think it is time for them to panic yet, the extra half point has me leaning the other way as without the noise of their home fans I expect the Saints to struggle or possibly even lose to the Packers.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Monday Night Football

Chiefs @ Ravens (-3.5)

This might be the matchup of the regular season yet alone the week. The Kansas City Chiefs had a bit of scare last week against the Chargers, but like most good teams found a way to win and certainly a team with Patrick Mahomes always has a chance. However, the Baltimore Ravens are top five by DVOA in all three phases of the game and their offence is coming off a week that saw them put up thirty-three points against the number one ranked defence in the league by DVOA. I also think that the Ravens’ strength in running the ball matches up well with the Chiefs’ defensive liability against the run (twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA) so whilst the Chiefs offence might well be explosive enough to keep them in the contest, I fancy the Ravens to win this one, and could do so well.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Week Two Picks

20 Sunday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Aaron Rodgers, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Brian Flores, Cam Newton, Carson Wentz, Chris Godwin, Dallas Cowboys, DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Pederson, Gardner Minshew, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Josh Allen, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, Le'Veon Bell, Michael Thomas, Mike McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings, Mitchell Trubisky, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Ron Rivera, Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks, Tom Brady, Tua Tagovailoa, Washington Football Team, Week 2 Picks

We are still early enough in the season that every game holds plenty questions as we don’t truly have a handle on how all the teams compare.

Early Games:

The games that leap out of the early slate first are the ones that see two 0-1 teams facing each other as one team will get over the early loss and another is going to be looking at a very tough if not impossible task to get to the play-offs.

The Cowboys host the Falcons is one such game and having talked about the use of analytics and indeed gone for it on a fourth down, this year’s Cowboys under Mike McCarthy don’t look that different to last season’s only the defence appears to be thinner and already weakened by injuries. The Flacons looked like their defence was still a problem and their offence generated plenty of stats but could not keep up with the Seahawks last week. I like the Cowboys to win this game, but I am not sure they are going to do it by six points, although I think this could be a very entertaining game with plenty of scoring..

The Vikings will be looking to get over last week’s heavy loss to the Packers, but they face a Colts team who moved the ball well enough and I am still concerned about the number of new players on the Vikings’ defence. I am making a numbers based play in this game, but this is definitely one to watch for me as I’m still trying to figure out these teams.

Finally, the Eagles lost to a surprisingly tough Washington Football Team in week one, with their offence struggling thanks to the injuries on the offensive line and never quite getting things together. People are already asking questions about Carson Wentz and Doug Pederson and this week they host a Rams team who started with a win against the Cowboys and who look to have some of their offensive mojo back. There are plenty of questions around both teams, but I have that bit more faith in the Rams right now and so I am going against the numbers in my spreadsheet and I am just hoping that I am not wrong.

Other things of interest:

  • Josh Allen threw the ball for three hundred yards last week, but this is a test of whether they can beat the teams that they should, whilst the Dolphins will be looking to bounce back in a second divisional game as Brian Flores tries to build on last season. It will not take many losses for the clamor for Tua to start in Miami.
  • The Giants are not a good football team, but the Bears had to rely on fourth quarter heroics from Mitchell Trubisky to get their win last week so which version of the Bears offence is the true one and can the Giants show signs of improvement?
  • The Broncos were more competitive than I was expecting last week, but they have to face a Steelers team who look like they have the capacity to make the Ravens work for the AFC North title.
  • The Lions looked back to their familiar losing ways last week, so can they truly compete on the road against the Packers, or will Aaron Rodgers continue to look sharp as the Packers try to establish themselves as the best team in the NFC North and I am already wondering if I was wrong about them and they may not regress as much as I thought.
  • The Titans won a close game on Monday, but the offence did not look as strong as it did late last season so given that the Jaguars won in week one with Gardner Minshew looking like he has build on his debut season, I  wonder why the Jaguars are getting this many points
  • I’m not sure what the Jets are meant to be building on going forward, there are plenty of questions surrounding Sam Darnold’s development and Le’Veon Bell is injured and doing little to justify his contract. The 49ers have a cluster of injuries at receiver and lost to the Cardinals last week – I wonder how the 49ers will pull things together but I still would be surprised if the Jets can compete in this one
  • The Buccaneers have plenty of work to do on offence but receiver Chris Godwin being out of the game with a concussion won’t help Tom Brady look better than he did last week. I think the Bucs can bounce back against the Panthers, but I don’t think it is a sure thing given how close the Panthers pushed the Raiders last week so the points looks wonky to me.

Falcons @ Cowboys (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Bills @ Dolphins (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Giants @ Bears (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Broncos @ Steelers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Lions @ Packers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Jaguars @ Titans (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Vikings @ Colts (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Rams @ Eagles (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

49ers @ Jets (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Panthers @ Buccaneers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Late Games:

Despite all the turmoil of the off-season, Ron Rivera got off to a winning start with Washington, but I don’t know how good they truly are given the problems the Eagles have. That said, I would expect Washington to be a tougher team to face under their new head coach. The Cardinals got off to a winning start with DeAndre Hopkins giving their offence a boost as quarterback Kyler Murray builds on his promising rookie season. I would not be surprised if the Cardinals win, but this line looks rich to me.

The other games look somewhat lopsided as they feature the two AFC teams who looked ominously good last week. The line might be too big for the Chiefs to cover but I couldn’t bring myself to pick the Chargers, particularly as they lost their starting center as they once again they are struggling with injuries whilst I don’t trust the Texans’ defense to be able to contain the Ravens potent offence.

Washington @ Cardinals (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Chiefs @ Chargers (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Ravens @ Texans (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Sunday Night Football:

Patriots @ Seahawks (-4.5)

The re-run of Super Bowl XLIX features very different rosters but looks a hugely enticing game. The Patriots ran Cam Newton a lot last week, but some of them were read-option plays according to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and with the Pat’s chameleon approach to game plans you don’t know if the Pats offence will change this week or if Newton will be heavily running again. However, the Seahawks looked like an offensive team last week with their defense only ranking twenty-first in the league by DVOA while Russell Wilson completed a preposterous thirty-one of thirty-five passes for three hundred and twenty-two yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. I an really not sure who will run out winners in this one, but it promises to be a fascinating game featuring as it does half of the top four teams in DVOA after week one.

Gee’s Pick:       Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Monday Night Football

Saints @ Raiders (+5.5)

The Saints got the win in week one, but have ruled out Michael Thomas for several weeks with a high-ankle injury and he didn’t look right in week one. However, if the offence wasn’t exactly their high flying best, the defence looked good against the Bucs and the Saints look set for another strong season. The Raiders play their first game in their new home after their week one win on the road against the Panthers. The big question for me is whether the Raiders defense can improve on the last two seasons and this will be a stiffer test than the Panthers new offence last week. The Raiders are one of the teams I am not sure about so I am very interested to see how the Raiders shape up against one of the best teams in the NFC in recent seasons.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

AFC and NFC West Preview

09 Wednesday Sep 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Pre-Season

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Aaron Donald, AFC West, Allegiant Stadium, Andy Reid, Anthony Lynn, Arizona Cardinals, Bradley Chubb, Chris Carson, Chris Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, DeForest Buckner, Denver Broncos, Derek Carr, Derwin James, DK Metcalf, Drew Lock, Eric Bieniemy, Jalen Ramsey, Joey Bosa, John Elway, John Lynch, Johnathan Abram, Jon Gruden, Josh Jacobs, Kansas City Chiefs, Kliff Kingsbury, Kyle Shanahan, Kyler Murray, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Larry Fitzgerald, Las Vegas Raiders, Melvin Ingram, NFC West, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Paul Guenther, Pete Carroll, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, San Francisco 49ers, Sean McVay, Seattle Seahawks, SoFi Stadium, Steve Spagnuolo, Todd Gurley, Tyler Lockett, Tyrod Taylor, Von Miller, Vontaze Burfict

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

How much is there to really say about the Chiefs? They won the Super Bowl last season, kept the core of their team intact including offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and look set to have another strong season. They extended Patrick Mahomes so they have him for ten years, extended disrupted defensive tackle Chris Jones and drafted a new running back for the offence. Said offence should stay one of the most fearsome in the league and may even be stronger given that Mahomes missed two games with injury last season. The defence will be back under Steve Spagnuolo for a second year and having improved their ranking from twenty-seventh by DVOA in the 2018 season to fourteenth in 2019, all they need to do is maintain a ranking somewhere around there to keep the team winning. You can never guarantee anything in the NFL, particularly this season but the Chiefs feel like one of the safest bets to be making a noise in the play-offs. Given how fun it is to watch an Andy Reid schemed offence, yet alone one helmed by a quarterback of the talents of Mahomes, I am sure everyone is planning to watch the Chiefs a lot this season. I certainly am.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos have not made the play-offs since they won the Super Bowl and have had a losing record  in each of the last three seasons, but there is some hope for the 2020 Broncos as there’s a possibility that John Elway has found a franchise quarterback. It was always going to challenge to follow Peyton Manning, even if he was limited in his passing ability during the final Super Bowl winning year. However, after a number of false starts the Broncos made second round draft pick Drew Lock the starter for the last five games of the 2019 season where he went 4-1. Now judging a quarterback solely on wins is a massive oversimplification so we should be wary of drawing too much from such a small sample of games, but it has at least given the Broncos a plan for the season. In his second year as head coach, Vic Fangio will be looking to get the defence to improve after it was ranked thirteenth by DVOA last season and losing a corner of the ability of Chris Harris will hurt but as defence tends to be more volatile from season to season than offence, a lot could rest on the Broncos being able to maintain a similar standard of defence and the offence improving. This is particularly the case with Bradley Chubb still making his way back from injury and All-Pro pass rusher Von Miller dislocating an ankle tendon and facing the real possibility of being out for the season. These previews have been giving me a series of things that I want to follow this season, and I think I need to take a look at Lock to see how he plays pretty soon. I’m not sure that the Broncos can compete for the playoffs, although with the expanded format it is possible, but it might not take too much to catapult the Broncos up there so definitely a team to keep an eye on.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders get to open the Death Star, or Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas as it’s properly called behind closed doors, and there is still much to uncover about this team. Last season’s 7-9 record was an improvement for Jon Gruden but he has yet to have a winning season since re-joining the Raiders in 2018 and will be looking to get back to winning ways this year. There are still questions about Gruden’s commitment to his starting quarterback Derek Carr, but the offence really wasn’t the problem last season. A ranking inside the top ten by DVOA on offence will not satisfy Gruden, but it was a defence that was ranked thirty-first and special teams that ranked twenty-fifth that sank last season’s team. Ex-Bengals defensive coordinator Paul Guenther had good success in Cincinnati when he took over their Defence from Mike Zimmer, but last season the Raiders’ signing of Vontaze Burfict backfired, and the loss of big hitting rookie safety Johnathan Abram didn’t help. I don’t know if Guenther will be able to improve a defence that has ranked thirty-first by DVOA for two seasons in a row, but if he can’t that will only increase the pressure for Gruden to improve the offence. There seems to be a rotating cast of receivers, although last year’s rookie running back Josh Jacobs impressed until his shoulder injury hampered his ability to get on the field late in the season. This is another team where there is a lot up in the air and with the shortened off-season I don’t know what to expect, but I think the season likely rests on getting the defence to at least be respectable.

LA Chargers

The Chargers are something of an enigma. They have a talented roster but have struggled on the offensive line and have been bitten by the injury bug often. They may have an advantage compared to the rest of the league when playing in empty stadiums as unlike last season where their home games often had more away fans than their own, at least they can control the environment in the shiny new SoFi Stadium. I like Anthony Lynn as a coach and there is a lot of intriguing talent on the roster, but they paired a twelfth ranked offence by DVOA with the twenty-fifth ranked defence and were dead last special teams. Even with Philip Rivers moving to Indianapolis there is hope for the offence and the Chargers have just extended the contracts of pass rushing duo Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, but the injury bug has already bit with last season’s rookie sensation First-Team All-Pro safety Derwin James on IR with a torn meniscus. The Chargers won or were within a touchdown in fourteen of their sixteen games last season, so they were close to a much better record, but in a tough division where they have to face the Chiefs twice and travel to face Denver in high-altitude I don’t know if they can expect a huge turn around. I think it is possible, but they would need to be healthy for once and have some bounces go their way. It feels like the Chargers are due a run of luck, but with Tyrod Taylor as starting quarterback it is hard to predict that they will do much more that be competitive this season unless Taylor improves on his previous record.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

Last season the 49ers finally delivered on the promise they have flashed through the rebuild masterminded by head coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch. A fearsome defence ranked second only to the Patriots by DVOA was paired with a top ten offence that Shanahan schemed to enough success for them all the way to the Super Bowl and they should be in contention again this year. However, they did trade defensive linemen DeForest Buckner away to allow them the cap flexibility to retain other players and they are already having problems at receiver with multiple players injured before the team have taken a competitive snap against another team. Shanahan is such a good coach that unless the number of injuries gets too big they 49ers should be able to compete, but the NFC West looks like a fearsome division so there could be a surprise or two in store.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks come into the 2020 season on the back of eight consecutive winning seasons, despite having to overhaul the vaunted Leigion of Boom defence in the last couple of seasons. In Russell Wilson they have one of the best quarterbacks in the league and last year’s rookie receiver DK Metcalf flashed alongside Tyler Lockett whilst Chris Carson was again the running back required to fit the run focussed offensive game plan that Pete Carroll wants to run. I do wonder how much home advantage the Seahawks will lose by not being able to play in front of their famously loud home crowd, but it is hard to see them do anything other than compete as that is Carroll’s mantra and even at the start of his time in Seattle, Carroll’s two losing seasons were still 7-9. That said, the usually strong defence was only ranked twenty-first by DVOA and whilst you have to go back to 2016 to find them ranked inside the top ten, their offence has not been that explosive so we shall have to see how this team does without the help of the home crowd.

LA Rams

The Rams failed to make the play-offs for the first time in Sean McVay’s three years with the franchise, and there was plenty of talk that teams had worked out the McVay’s offence. That said, the Rams still went 9-7, and later in the season the Rams started to use more 12 personnel as McVay adjusted to the adjustments opposing defences had made to his scheme. The Rams were also not helped by the dip in play from Todd Gurley that led to him being cut in the off-season and this was one of a number of adjustments the Rams had to make to the roster to get themselves under the salary cap. They also fired defensive coordinator Wade Philips, which is one of bigger decisions McVay has made in his tenure and could be an interesting one to monitor as  the defence was ranked top ten by DVOA last season and Philips is very experienced coach, but the only big names left on the defence are Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Now Donald is arguably the most important non-quarterback in the league and a bona fide pass rush nightmare, but Donald plus a lockdown corner in Ramsey does not a defence make and with a number of defensive starters gone from last season it is not hard to see a slip on that side of the ball this year. I wouldn’t count the Rams out, but there are enough questions that you can’t simply put them in the play-offs. With the expanded wildcard slots I wouldn’t rule out them being there or there abouts, but this could be a big season for McVay’s long term prospects in LA.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals knew they were in for a long rebuild going into last season, but their 5-11 record was not actually that bad considering the 3-13 disaster it followed and there were some promising things to take away. Although Kyler Murray (their second first round quarterback selection in two years) didn’t set the league alight, he showed promise and proved that he could get through a season despite the size that many were worried about. Murray looked to have the Russell Wilson knack of not taking the big hit and although his college now NFL head coach Kliff Kingsbury had to adjust his scheme when it didn’t work when facing NFL defences, he did just that and so they come into the season hoping to build on last year. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins is upgrade to the Cardinals’ receiver group, although the continuing presence of Larry Fitzgerald also reassures but he must retire soon and so Hopkins is a valuable addition for the next couple of years at least. The defence still needs work but I am curious about how this team does so I look forward to monitoring how they progress this season.

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