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AAF: JJ Watt

23 Sunday Dec 2018

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For this week’s amateur adventures in film I decided to give myself the Christmas present of JJ Watt on coaching tape so I took a loot the Houston Texans’ week fifteen game against the New York Jets.

Watt may not be in the discussion for MVP like he was in his pomp only a couple of seasons ago, but he has amassed fourteen and a half sacks this season that has him tied for second in the league with Denielle Hunter and Von Miller, behind only Aaron Donald. Watt book-ended this game with two sacks and in between was a destructive force throughout. He was spelled a couple of times for a handful of plays, but for most of the game he was on the field at left end, be it as part of the Texans’ 3-4 base defence or more their more predominantly used in this game 4-2 nickel look. That said he also played right end at time as well as lining up as a pass rush defensive tackle lined up opposite an offensive tackle, although he would rush the guard inside him.

On the Jets’ opening drive, Watt got round first the left tackle and then the right tackle on successive plays before stalling the drive with a sack. The things that perhaps I was most impressed with by Watt was his use of hands. I was praising David Bakhtiari last week for his patience, which was because of how good he was with his hands when he engaged the pass rush and Watt has a similar ability being put to the opposite use. Watt has the knack of either avoiding blocks or getting off them thanks to his ability to control contact and this combined with his still formidable physical gifts allows him to play the run incredibly well as well as being a danger rushing the passer. He might have had even more sacks were it not for a couple of holds that were called and some more that I thought could have been called. Watt is not a straight speed rusher but often uses speed to power, or dips his shoulder round the tackle to power towards the quarterback as well as straight bull rushing the offensive player in front of him. He also frequently nearly got tackles in the backfield that he had no right to get near and forced the quarterback to move in the pocket even if the offensive player stayed in front of him.

The Jets did not slide all their protection to Watt, but it was common for him to be double teamed or get bumped by a running back or tight end as they went past. There was one play where I’m sure the right guard Brian Winters was pointing out something for the protection scheme, but it did look for all the world like he was saying he’s there, Watt is there. The results for the Jets could have been worse, but for all that he has looked like a rookie this season, I thought that Sam Darnold showed good awareness in the pocket and moved to deliver the ball as well as scrambling effectively a couple of times. He has not got a lot of strength at the skill positions and the Jets might have a player to develop around in the coming years.

I really enjoyed watching this tape as there was a time in the last couple of seasons where it felt as if Watt was never going to get back on the field and whilst he may never quite live up to the previous highs he reached, Watt is once again an all pro player and I wouldn’t like to bet against him repeating this play in the future. That is perhaps as good a Christmas present as I could have hoped for.

2018 Saturday Picks 2: The Revenge

22 Saturday Dec 2018

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It was a terrible week to go ice cold with my picks, which as I mentioned in this week’s blog post gives Dan’s Dad a five point lead with two week’s left. I just hope I can turn things round and make the score respectable if not prevent the blog going purple and gold, which takes us to our second round of Saturday picks.

Gee:    Week 15   5-11            Overall   113-111
Dan:    Week 15   9-7              Overall   109-115

Washington @ Titans (-10.5)

This is a huge line considering that the Tennessee Titans only have one more win than Washington and yes the team from the nation’s capital are much more injured and down to their fourth quarterback of the season, but having beaten the Jaguars last week it feels like they will keep this game more competitive than eleven points. I’m slightly nervous as the Titans have been a team I have struggled to pick all season and they shut out the Giants last week, but my spreadsheet agrees with my gut feeling and so I’m going to back Washington.

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

Ravens @ Chargers (-4.5)

I’m really looking forward to this game and I hope to able to watch it at some point on Sunday. The LA Chargers are right up there with any team in the league, but they don’t exactly have a huge home field advantage and this week they welcome a Baltimore Ravens team who have been competitive for a number of weeks now and who are still in the hunt for the playoffs. It might be that the Chargers run out winners, but I’m not hugely confident in that and I like the Ravens to keep it closer than five thanks to their tough defence and ability to run the ball.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

I’ll leave you with a reminder of this week’s trivia question.

‘In Week 3 the Browns beat the Jets 20 – 17, but how many days, and against whom, prior to Sept 20 is it since they had last won? As it’s Christmas I’ll allow you 25 days either way but give 3 points for an exact hit.’

The Changes of the Season

19 Wednesday Dec 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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It feels like we are on the edge of change on many fronts, and that is only a partial reference to Brexit. The winter solstice is on Friday and as the days start to get longer again it is all change in the NFL as the playoffs near. We have had our last Thursday night game of the regular season, which will be wrapped up before the new year starts. Closer to home for this blog, with some terrible timing I was ice cold with my picks this weeks dropping to five points behind Dan’s Dad whilst Dan had another double digit total that pulled him to within four points of me. This change of method for Dan is possibly too late to win the whole competition but he could very easily catch me and it certainly feels like the blog will be going purple and gold in the new year. I’m mostly annoyed at myself though as I’m tinkering with a spreadsheet formula for making picks and if I had just listened to that I would have gone 11-5 and things would look very different.

So as the world (and possibly the blog colours) change it also feels like things have shifted in the league. None of this season’s three elite offences have really fired properly in the last couple of weeks. This is probably due to a combination of injuries and maybe some weather but only the New Orleans Saints won this week. The Chiefs at least won the week before but are now level with the late surging LA Chargers in the AFC West with 11-3 records whilst the LA Rams have lost two straight and have just signed free-agent running back CJ Anderson after Todd Gurley picked up a knock against the Eagles.

Speaking of which, don’t look now but through a combination of beating the Rams and the Cowboys getting shut out the Eagles now have an outside shot of making the playoffs, although they have to win out and hope results go their way. It will not be easy to beat the Houston Texans or a Washington team that are somehow not eliminated from the playoffs either thanks to grinding out a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

However, I should go back to the best teams for a moment as thanks to their ability to keep grinding out wins despite their offence falling back a bit the Saints are now the only team with twelve wins having prevailed in an entertaining game against the Carolina Panthers who lost another game and maybe should look at siting Cam Newton as he does not look right thanks to his injured shoulder.

More interestingly for a competitive postseason, not only have these three elite teams as I called them come back to the pack a little, but there are other teams who are rounding into form. Okay whoever actually comes out of the NFC East looks to be somewhat flawed, but the Chicago Bears won the NFC North for the first time since 2010 thanks to their win over the Packers and whilst Mitchell Turbisky doesn’t necessarily inspire confidence yet their defence certainly does. The Seattle Seahawks still have a game lead on the other wildcard contenders despite their loss to the 49ers on Sunday and facing them if they get through certainly won’t be easy. I’m withholding judgement on the Minnesota Vikings for another game in case the game against a bad road team isn’t a pre-cursor of things to come, but the offence certainly ran the ball against the Dolphins and if they play more like they could be a horrible game for any team they face.

In the AFC, the Houston Texans should not be underestimated with their 10-6 record but the Indianapolis Colts could give a team a nasty surprise with their combination of good offence and tough enough defence (shutting out any NFL offence is impressive, even though the Cowboys rank a surprising twenty-sixth by DVOA ). No one would fancy facing the Ravens’ mix of strong defence and ability to run the ball should they make it and the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots have enough muscle memory that no one will want to play them, even if there are strange things going on with both franchises. I’m sure that if you told Bill Belichick last week that his defence would limit the Steelers to seventeen points that he would have been happy but in further evidence that things are just not right with the Patriots this year they only scored ten points and actually lost the game. We’ve been here before with Tom Brady and the Patriots and I still maintain that I won’t believe it is over until it is over, but Brady is a forty-one year old quarterback so time has to be running out. That said, no one would be surprised if the Pats made another Super Bowl but it’s very possible they have already cost themselves home field advantage and\or a bye with their last two losses. I still don’t know what to make of the Tennessee Titans, other than that they were clearly offended by my terrible pick at the weekend as not only did they beat the New York Giants in the MetLife Stadium, but pitched a second shutout of the week!

For those of you who support teams like my Bengals who are well and truly out of the playoff races, don’t worry the blog goodbyes will start up following the last the week of the season. However, the Bengals did at least manage to halt their losing streak with a win over the Oakland Raiders. Joining the Bengals in the losing record but won their week fifteen game club were the Buffalo Bills, who have actually gone 3-2 over their last five games and snuck out a win against the Detroit Lions, the aforementioned San Francisco 49ers, and the Cleveland Browns who are already above the Bengals in the AFC North and just imagine what they might have done this season if you look at their record since Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were fired.

We are rapidly approaching the playoffs and I am sad that the Bengals won’t make it, but I’m very much looking forward to what should be some cracking makes. Now, I have to get my newsletter sorted so I can start on my Christmas coaching tape present to myself, namely JJ Watt.

We have to savour the football we have left as it won’t be here for very much longer!

AAF: David Bakhtiari

16 Sunday Dec 2018

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So this week’s amateur adventures in film is a little delayed, but that might be appropriate if you bear with me. I was at a slight loss to what I was going to write about when I remembered listening to The Ringer’s Robert Mays waxing lyrical about the play of left tackle David Bakhtiari early in the season and sure enough I took a look at his game against the Atlanta Falcons from week fourteen.

Now the interesting things for me is that looking at offensive linemen is to an extent always an exercise in trying to decipher the undecipherable. There are a lot of nuances that are hard to judge on film if you are not an expert, even if you try to watch for changes in set and how they approach each play. The real thing to look at is how the player does in pass protection and run blocking but even then you don’t know the protection scheme or what was meant to happen on a particular play.

Now watching Bakhtiari the major thing that struck me was his balance and how in control he looked. It reminded me of another AAF post I did on Joe Thomas where I was struck by a similar thought. With good pass protection, particularly by a tackle there is a balance and control about a player. Now it has to be said that doesn’t mean that Bakhtiari didn’t give up ground when bull rushed, but he basically always stayed in front of the pass rusher and was able to direct them away from his quarterback. There was one snap where the Falcons defender was able to break contact and come across Bakhtiari and eventually get a sack but part of the ability of Aaron Rodgers has to make life hard for his offensive line as often he will move out of the pocket so the linemen can’t always be sure of the point they are blocking too. However, Bakhtiari never looked troubled by this and often Rodgers would get rid of the ball before Bakhtiari has even engaged the Falcons defender he was facing. Partly this was a function of quick passes, but the other major comment I would have about Bakhtiari is that he seems to be incredibly patient when blocking and seems very happy to wait before getting his hands on the pass rusher but yet he doesn’t miss. You might have thought that this approach would lead to trouble but the defender never seems to be able to put a move on Bakhtiari despite not being engaged, Bakhtiari just waits until he feels the need before laying a hand on the defender. In fact one of my favourite plays was when Bakhtiari waited until his defender was half way through a spin move and simply engaged the defender’s back and stoned him dead facing the wrong way!

In the run game Bakhtiari is not exactly running over people, but that is a pretty rare thing in the NFL and all he really needs to do is turn his assigned man and seal the edge. However, Bakhtiari has the athleticism to keep up with the play when the whole line blocks right or left on run plays.

I wish I could write more on the nuances, but what I can say is that David Bakhtiari was left to cover a man on the left side of the defence on his own, pretty much never got beaten, and had the most amazing timing with the way he engages his defender. I want to learn more about line play and Bakhtiari would seem to be a good player to come back to. It would be well worth your time paying attention to Aaron Rodgers blind side the next time you watch the Packers.

2018 Week Fifteen Picks

16 Sunday Dec 2018

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With the winter solstice only five days away we go into the Sunday of week fifteen with Dan’s Dad extending his lead in the picks competition to two points, but first there’s a deceptively fiendish trivia questions to deal with.

‘We’re all rushing round getting ready for the holidays but: Which team was last in the league for rushing yards in 2017/18?’

This is not the kind of thing that just rattles round my brain, but the Bengals were pretty awful last season and it was a major point of emphasis in the offseason plus the reason we change line coach for the first time in something like twenty years so I’m going to suggest the Bengals, and even if they weren’t actually last they will be pretty damn close.

‘Difficult one this week… I don’t think either our Dolphins or Bengals will have been particularly high up the rushing rankings last year but I’m basically guessing based on whose runners I can’t name off the top of my head. I think I’ll go for Detroit, but it’s a complete guess.’

Cardinals @ Falcons (-8.5)

The Arizona Cardinals are tricky team to read other than them being bad. Two of their three wins have come on the road, but then two of their three wins are against the 49ers. This week they travel to face a four win Atlanta Falcons team who mainly win at home, but haven’t managed that in five games. You would give the Falcons the edge in this game but the Cardinals have possibly been better on the road and this feels like too many points to lay as a team who haven’t won since week nine.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Lions @ Bills (-2.5)

The Detroit Lions got a win in Arizona, but their offence has been hobbled by the injuries to Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson and this week they travel to face a Buffalo Bills team who have a defence that ranks third by DVOA. This could be an ugly game and with the Bills only needing a field goal to cover I’m going to back the home team. Nervously…

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Packers @ Bears (-5.5)

The Green Bay Packers won last week, despite Joe Philbin losing both his coach’s challenges inside the opening two minutes of the game but it is one thing to beat the badly travelling Falcons at Lambeau Field and another to travel to face Chicago and their number one by DVOA defence. With their win against the Rams last week the Bears continued to make the case that they should be taken very seriously, even if Mitchell Trubisky looked every inch the quarterback coming back from a should injury. Still, Matt Nagy has done a really good job of aggressively planning for his team and leaving Vic Fangio alone to helm a terrifying defence. The Packers have not won on the road this season and whilst I’m not saying it isn’t possible in this game, with Khalil Mack fully integrated into the Bears’ defence I don’t expect Rodgers to be able to pull of the kind of comeback performance he managed in week one. That said Rodgers has a habit of making anyone who picks against him look foolish and I can’t bring myself to do it in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Raiders @ Bengals (-2.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals managed to keep the score respectable against the Chargers in LA last week but between the poor defence and the injuries it is hard have much faith in them at the moment. The Oakland Raiders beat the Steelers last week with some help from the Steelers but their defence is in fact ranked worse than the Bengals by DVOA. Their offences may actually rank closely but the Raiders have won two out of their last four games. This is the last home game for the Bengals this season and my numbers say this is a good pick for the Bengals but on recent form I just can’t do it. I hope to be proven wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Cowboys @ Colts (-2.5)

This should be an absolutely cracking game as the Dallas Cowboys have found their formula in recent weeks thanks to the combination of a top ten defence and an offence that has really nailed down how to use Ezekiel Elliott and that was transformed by the addition of Amari Cooper even if you can debate the price they paid to do it. This week they travel to Indianapolis to take on a Colts team who bounced back from a bad loss against the Jaguars to beat the Texans last week and who have won six of their last seven games since starting the season 1-5. Andrew Luck looks like the quarterback we all thought he could be and the Colts actually rank better by overall DVOA than the Cowboys although the Cowboys have won five straight. That said, it looks like Zack Martin could be out this week and the Cowboys were pretty lucky to beat the Eagles in overtime last week and with this being their first road game since week eleven I’m going to pick a Colts team who only need a field goal to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Titans @ Giants (-2.5)

I have struggled to pick the Tennessee Titans all year and this week is no exception as they are coming off a good win against the Jacksonville Jaguars and take their 7-6 record to face a New York Giants team who have won four of their last five games. I’m not sure I’m qualified to write about the Giants’ resurgence other than to mention the form of rookie running back Saquon Barkley who is third in the league in rushing total and is averaging five point four yards per game. In fact the Giants are ranked seven places higher by overall DVOA despite being two games back by win record. The Titans have lost their last four games on the road and have just placed starting right tackle Jack Conklin on IR so I am going to reluctantly back the Giants, but honestly I have no idea what will happen in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Dolphins @ Vikings (-6.5)

The Miami Dolphins beat the Patriots last week with a last second miracle play but could fall back to earth with a bump this week as they take their five straight road losses to Minnesota to face a faltering Vikings team. The dysfunction on offence was enough to cost John DeFilippo his job as offensive coordinator and it will be interesting to see if this sparks the offence in the final three games as Mike Zimmer will hope. The Vikings currently have the last wildcard spot despite their problems but they can’t afford to drop games now. This feels like too many points to lay given the uncertainty on offence but the Dolphins road form has been awful and if Zimmer gets the running game he seeks then perhaps the Vikings can have more control of the game. That’s the way I’m leaning although I’m not entirely sure why. If I’m wrong it will cheer Dan right up.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Buccaneers @ Ravens (-7.5)

Don’t look now but the Buccaneers have won two of their last three games and didn’t exactly get humiliated by the Saints last week although the Saints won pretty convincingly. This week they travel to Baltimore to face the second ranked defence by DVOA who held a wounded Chiefs offence in a game the Ravens could very well have won. The Ravens are very much in contention for the NFC North but with a visit to the LA Chargers next week they cannot afford to lose this game or the season ender against the Browns. The commitment to running the ball since placing rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson into the starting line-up has transformed the fortunes of the Ravens and I expect them to win out in this game but this line is just a little too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Washington @ Jaguars (-6.5)

This might be a contender for least attractive game of the season given Washington’s current form and injury situation plus the Jaguars woeful season. It’s hard to see the Jaguars as this big a favourite against anyone, except that Washington just shipped forty points against the Giants. With the level of quarterback play on display this could be a truly ugly game so I’m going to back Washington based on that principle alone but it should be remembered that remarkably Washington are not out of the playoff hunt yet.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Seahawks @ 49ers (+5.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are a bad team, but they picked up their third win of the season last week and scuppered the Broncos hopes of the playoffs. Still, they welcome a Seahawks team who are finishing the season strong and who are on a four game winning streak. In fact, of their five losses this season only one of them was to a team that currently has a losing record and I fancy them to run out winners in this one. This is a lot of points, but not quite enough to make me back the 49ers, even if my spreadsheet might indicate otherwise.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Patriots @ Steelers (+1.5)

There is something rotten in the franchise of Pittsburgh who have lost three straight games, with the loss to the Raiders being particularly hard to explain. This would account for them getting points at home and that might be really tempting except that the Patriots always seem to find a way to beat the Steelers and are coming off the kind of loss that Brady and Belichick will be desperate to wash away with a win. The Steelers look like they could be without running back James Conner for a second week thanks to a high ankle sprain and I am just not going to bet against the Patriots in this situation

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Eagles @ Rams (-9.5)

Given that Carson Wentz has been ruled out of this game with a fractured vertebrae it feels unlikely that the struggling Eagles will turn round their fortunes against a Los Angeles Rams team who will be desperate to get right after their loss to the Bears last week. The line is somewhat concerning though, but this is a different Eagles team than last year, as much due to the loss of offensive coaches as it is the players, and given their beat up secondary I think the Rams could get back to winning in a big way this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Saints @ Panthers (+6.5)

The final game of the week would have been a huge matchup just a couple of weeks ago, but given the Carolina Panthers have lost five games in a row it feels like the result is much less in doubt this week as they welcome the New Orleans Saints. Still, this is a divisional game and the Saints offence has looked a little less transcendent in the last couple of weeks, which is perhaps not that surprising as their mid-season form really was remarkable. This is the third straight road game for the Saints and so the points are enough to make me pause as whilst I think the Saints will win, I don’t know if it will be by a touchdown. I could regret this as Cam Newton’s shoulder and the Panthers’ form makes me nervous, but I’m very hesitantly going to back them to a lot better than their last prime time game against the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Saturday Picks, Saturday Picks

15 Saturday Dec 2018

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Sing with me to the tune of the Blankety Blank theme:

‘Saturday picks, Saturday picks
Saturday pick, Saturday Picks etc.’

Yes, I am feeling distinctly out of synch with these picks so let’s get to the first Saturday games of the year that follow a really entertaining Thursday night game the I picked totally wrong…

Texans @ Jets (+6.5)

So it is perfectly logical that the Houston Texans run of nine wins came to an end last week, but a loss to a division rival who are also in contention for the playoffs is pretty understandable so I don’t want to ding them too badly. However, this week they travel to face a New York Jets team who are coming off a win and get to welcome a dome team into the elements of an open field as this is the Texans first road game since week eleven. The Texans offence relies on the run as a foundation and the Jets rush defence currently ranks twenty-third in the league by DVOA. I like the Texans to win this game but the points worry me as the only big road win the Texans have was against the Jaguars. The Jets aren’t exactly great either but if I’m getting this many points I’m tempted enough to nervously back them.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Browns @ Broncos (-3.5)

This is an interesting game for me as the Denver Broncos basically dropped out of the playoff race last week with a bad road loss to the San Francisco 49ers team but they are a better team at home. However, this week they face a Cleveland Browns team who have won three out of their last four games and who have been competitive for a lot of the season. That said, their solitary road win was against the Bengals in week twelve and they lost badly to the Texans two weeks ago. The DVOA rankings still really like the Broncos but that extra half point worries me and so I’m going to nervously grab the points and hope I’m not being too clever for my own good.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Competition Thursday: 2018 Week Fifteen

13 Thursday Dec 2018

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Somehow there are only three weeks of the regular season left and it’s still nip and tuck in the picks competition with Dan’s Dad taking a slender one point lead and Dan narrowing the gap to single digits with his revised strategy, but given the quality of tonight’s game I’m not sure you will care about any of that so on to the pick.

Gee:    Week 14   7-9             Overall   108-100
Dan:    Week 14   10-6           Overall   100-108

Chargers @ Chiefs (-3.5)

I think that the scheduling computers were clearly setup to improve the quality of the prime time games as this is another cracking Thursday night game that see the 10-3 LA Chargers visiting the 11-2 Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams are carrying injuries to their impressive offences and have quarterbacks in the conversation for MVP but whilst the Chiefs have a 6-4 home record in this matchup  over the last ten years, they have won the last four and I have a feeling that they will still have enough to edge this one. The extra half point make me nervous, as does the limping of Tyreek Hill but Chargers have their own problems at running back and at home on a Thursday night I’m leaning towards the Chiefs.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Week Fifteen Trivia

‘There is something special about the last knockings of a season in whatever sport you follow. There seems to be a new twist at every turn and this season’s main events are obviously the TWF Picks and Trivia competitions. With the Picks far too close to call and Dan making a late charge with some interesting strategies this will go right to the line.

I am pleased to report that as expected both Gee and Dan correctly identified the 49’ers as the answer to Which team ended last season with 5 straight wins having starting it 1-10?

And so to the run in to the end of the regular season.

For week 15 I’m going to stay in last season.

We’re all rushing round getting ready for the holidays but: Which team was last in the league for rushing yards in 2017/18?’

The Contenders, the Changes, and the TWFSafties!!

12 Wednesday Dec 2018

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It’s getting to that time of the season where the games take on added significance through context as whilst each game is still one sixteenth of a team’s season, we are now seeing teams fall out the hunt of the playoffs and the consequences are pretty immediate. Gone are the days when teams waited until the Monday following the final game of the season to make their coaching changes and in fact some are even trying to spark a late season run, so with all that in mind let’s take stock of the week fourteen games and what’s been going on around the league. Oh yes, and I have two safeties for you luck people as well!

In the AFC, three of the division leaders lost with the New England Patriots losing in Miami in something that is fast becoming an unwanted tradition for the Patriots. The Pats’ coaching staff might have outsmarted themselves by having Rob Gronkowski on the field to defend an unlikely Hail Mary from Ryan Tannehill (who was nursing an ankle injury as well as only recently coming back from a shoulder injury) but what they came up with was still a fantastically exciting play that will be part of every season roundup.  The best thing to do if you somehow haven’t seen it, or missed Dan writing about it is to have a look at the highlights here. Whilst the Patriots should sail into the playoffs still, they look to be settling into the number two seed which they will have to hope is not too costly if the Chiefs continue their current streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Steelers saw their hopes of taking the Raiders into overtime dashed when their kicker Chris Boswell slipped on his last second field goal attempt and missed for the second time that game. The bigger question is what took them so long to get Ben Roethlisberger back into the game in the second half once his rib injury had been cleared as he was seen stood on the sidelines whilst Josh Dobbs struggled to do much as his replacement. As for AFC South, the Houston Texans had their nine game winning streak ended by an Indianapolis Colts team looking to bounce back from their loss to the Jaguars and hoping to stay in contention for the playoffs.

The Colts are one of five AFC teams with seven wins trying to make said playoffs. The Dolphins are still in the mix, although they could just as easily finish eight and eight but given the injuries they have suffered Adam Gase has pulled off another impressive coaching job to keep them in contention. It feels like whatever happens in Miami they need to find a quarterback who can play effectively who is not as prone to injury as Tannehill. The Ravens remain on seven wins thanks to their narrow loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but they were at least competitive and it looks like the competition for the AFC North will go down to the wire and perhaps the Bengals will have one last say in events in week seventeen when they face the Steelers. I should point out that Patrick Mahomes threw a no look pass and an impossible across the body throw on fourth and nine that very few other quarterbacks could plausably attempt and likely only Aaron Rodgers could carry off. The Tennessee Titans literally ran out winners in their game against the Jacksonville Jaguars with Derrick Henry amassing two hundred and forty-three yards and an amazing ninety-nine yard touchdown that featured three separate stiff arms as he rumbled the length of the field.

These five teams with seven wins are involved in two interconnected races, for whilst the Ravens and Steelers are duking it out for the AFC North, all look to be competing for one last wildcard spot as with a three game lead and still in with a chance of winning the AFC West – the LA Chargers should make the playoffs having already hit the magical ten win total with three games left. They did enough to beat the Bengals without extending themselves in a game that featured one of my worst picks of the year.

On the NFC side of the league, three out of the four division leaders won with the Dallas Cowboys riding their luck in overtime to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in a game that was marred by more officiating controversies. The Chicago Bears won a defensive game with the LA Rams that featured lots of interceptions and provoked questions about the Rams ability to function in the cold. It’s an easy narrative to grab but we shall have to see if over more games if it is genuinely a thing. However, it’s not often that we have seen Sean McVay struggle and I’m excited to see how this team does in their second trip to the playoffs under this regime. Meanwhile the New Orleans Saints got back to winning ways with a comfortable win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and remain in contention for the number one seed in the NFC.

It seems likely that we know the winner of each division of the NFC and like in the AFC, there is a clear contender for the first wildcard place as with their convincing win over the Minnesota Vikings, the Seattle Seahawks have a two game lead onver any other challenger.

The Vikings are one of four teams with six wins and so need to make a push in these last three games if they are to claim the last wildcard place. As a team with a high profile quarterback free-agent and an offence that hasn’t quite come together it is perhaps not a surprise that the Vikings have let go their offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, but it is a blow to the coordinator who was being quoted as a likely head coaching candidate before the season. There is however, a big difference between being the quarterback coach for a Super Bowl winning team and being the offensive coordinator, yet alone a head coach. I do idly wonder whether DeFilippo might find a quick rehire to lend a hand in Philadelphia given the struggles they have had on offence after the brain drain of the offseason, although the lack of deep threat doesn’t help either. Having lost to the Cowboys it feels like the Eagles won’t win the division, although technically it is still possible, but they have six wins and are one of the three teams that I think have actual shot at making the playoffs. Things are not exactly looking great for the Carolina Panthers as they lost on the road to the Cleveland Browns and there’s talks of issues with Cam Newton’s shoulder. The Panthers have also had changes in coaching staff, this time on the defensive time but having now lost five straight games they are running out of time to turn things round. I suspect it is already too late for six win Washington who at least scored some points when they brought on recently signed quarterback Josh Johnson, but when you lose to the New York Giants this badly it is a sign of a team who needs to rethink their approach.

That pretty much covers all the teams in the playoff race, but I thought I should mention the Green Bay Packers because of the news that’s surrounding them. Having fired Mike McCarthy last week they got back to winning ways against woeful Falcons and now stand at 5-7-1. It will be interesting to see how they try to retool on the fly given the age of Aaron Rodgers, and it was interesting that long-time coach Winston Moss tweeted about, ‘…Find somebody that is going to hold #12 and everybody in this building to a #LombardiStandard!…’ shortly after McCarthy was let go. The team may have bounced back with a win this week but after such a period of stability who can foresee how the offseason will go with the recently hired GM and his search for a new coach?

Finally, or at least the last thing before I finish up with the week fourteen safeties, I have to comment on one the teams whose major effect on the playoffs could well be that win against the Steelers this week. On Monday the Raiders let go of general manager Reggie McKenzie, which possibly wasn’t a surprise given that the Raiders have traded away such draft picks as Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper. The power dynamic for the Raiders obviously shifted when they handed Jon Gruden a ten-year $100 million contract and they will now have to find someone to work closely with Gruden but whoever they hire won’t have the power of a usual GM so only time will tell whether this will ultimately result in a more competitive team. However it works out, it is pretty clear that Gruden is central to the Raiders’ plan and the defining factor in the success of the team is the design and execution of Gruden’s plan by Gruden. There won’t be much room to hide whatever the result.

So we had two safeties this week and I got lucky enough to pick both games to watch anyway. The first took place in the Thursday night game and re-affirms the importance of special teams play when the Titans’ Cameron Batson muffed the catch and recovered the ball to be tackled into the end zone. In one play the Jaguars scored two points and got the ball back, they just failed to capitalise on that chance. The second took place early in the third quarter and is the kind of thing that drives an offensive coordinator round the bend as on second and fifteen on their own eight yard line Jared Goff took the snap and drifted back into the end zone where Eddie Goldman just beat Akiem Hicks to the sack and the safety. It’s the kind of play where situational awareness is so important and there is so much for a quarterback to learn so I don’t want to judge Goff too harshly but it makes you appreciate the Tom Brady or Drew Brees who stilllmake mistakes and take sacks but you think would have got rid of the ball in that situation. Still, the important thing is that the quarterback got sacked for points because that is what should happen to the glory hunters every now and again to keep them grounded. Let’s hope for some more next week and for those counting these were the ninth and tenth safeties of the season.

AAF: Cowboys’ Defence

09 Sunday Dec 2018

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It was only in part to avoid watching the Tennessee Titans defence for a third week in a row that I decided to watch the Dallas Cowboys defence limit the New Orleans Saints to ten points in their Thursday night win. Mostly I wanted to see how they had managed to tame one of the three elite offences that have so dominated the season so far.

Well it has to be said that the answer to this question was not born out of some complex scheme twist but rather solid play and execution, whilst exploiting one of the traits of the Saints’ offence.

I’ll start with what it was about the Saints’ offence that allowed the Cowboys to match up to them in a relatively straight forward manner, which is that the Saints have one excellent receiver in Michael Thomas, but otherwise the Saints really rely on the abilities of their all-star running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara and a raft of other players but their second receiving threat is probably Kamara.

The Cowboy therefore matched up to the Saints with a mixture of their base 4-3 defence and their nickel sub package, occasionally playing some dime on long third downs.. They generally only rushed four or five players against the pass and rarely used any exotic blitzes, although late in the fourth quarter they did get a sack from corner Anthony Brown who was blitzing alongside Jaylon Smith as Dorance Armstrong dropped into coverage. However, their success was mostly playing man coverage behind a four or five man pass rush and the ability of their linebackers. Now there were some strong moments individually from the linemen and rushing the passer but when facing a quarterback like Drew Brees it is perhaps not surprising that they only sacked him twice and got a couple more quarterback hits. What they did manage was to make him uncomfortable in the pocket and so the Saints couldn’t quite get in rhythm and Brees missed a couple of throws or had them disrupted. There were still moments where Michael Thomas could run a route and Brees would find him but sustaining drives was hard and I don’t remember seeing as many three and outs from the Saints as we did in the first half of this game.

The players that really jumped out at me were the fore mentioned linebackers and in particular rookie Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith. For years it has felt like the presence or absence of Sean Lee has defined the ability of the Cowboys’ defence to remain competitive, but that is no longer the case. It looks like Jaylon Smith is finally fit enough to show that he can really play in the league after the knee injury that he sustained in his final college game dropped him out of the first round and some were worried he might never be the same given the nerve damage he suffered and the resultant drop foot. He might not have reached the heights of the player he was in college, but he was on the field for every snap in this game and clearly was a vital part in the communication of the defence. Playing next to him is Vander Esh whose range and ability as a tackler meant that the Cowboys defence was able to contain Alvin Karma to only seventy-two yards of offence, which is no mean feat given the way he has torn through defences this season.

The Dallas Cowboys defence now ranks seventh in the league by DVOA, very much helped by this game with saw them leap up from thirteenth but it seems to have found its way with its linebackers and defensive line rotation . What also helps has been the way the Cowboys have been playing complimentary football as their ability to sustain drives and keep the Saints offence off the field for long stretches of this game kept their defence fresh and able to either contain or at times dominate the Saints offence. I will be interested to see how the Cowboys fare in the coming weeks but if feels they have the momentum to win the division if they can beat the Eagles this week and this season they have the defence to do it.

Week Fourteen Picks

09 Sunday Dec 2018

Posted by in Picks Competition

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As winter closes in so does the NFL regular season, leaving us with fewer games and less daylight and with that in mind I shall try to get through these picks quick enough to get what I need to done during daylight finished, so on to picks and first this week’s trivia question. I should mention that Dan is sticking to his decision to pick against his instincts this week despite this failing on Thursday.

‘Which team ended last season with 5 straight wins having starting it 1-10?’

I’m pretty damn certain about this question as I remember this being a thing and me writing about Jimmy Garoppolo having an unbeaten record at the start of this season. That may not have lasted, but the answer is the San Francisco 49ers.

‘Easy one this week – I suppose they can’t all be ridiculously difficult every week! The answer is the San Francisco 49ers whose season was seemingly saved by the introduction of Jimmy G from the Patriots!’

Falcons @ Packers (-5.5)

So this week’s picks start with a strange line given that the Atlanta Falcons have managed very little this season and for some that is to do with more than just the injuries that have plagued them. This week they face a Green Bay Packers team who just fired their coach for the ignominy of losing to the now three win Arizona Cardinals. Last week’s loss was the first of the season at Lambeau Field and it seems reasonable to expect a reaction but is it enough to cover this large a line. It seems dangerous to pick it to happen after last week’s loss but I do not trust Matt Ryan outside of a dome, and in a cold Green Bay I have a number close to this one and so swinging for the fences I’m going with the Packers bouncing back.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Jets @ Bills (-3.5)

This a horrible line as neither team exactly inspires confidence and though I may well lean towards the Bills, the New York Jets actually rank a little better by overall DVOA but they haven’t even been losing productively given that Sam Darnold has missed the last three games through injury. I don’t necessary like it, but I’m going to back the home team and hope that extra half point doesn’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:       Jets

Panthers @ Browns (+1.5)

I really don’t know what to make of a Carolina Panthers team who have now lost four in a row and there are talks of Cam Newton having shoulder soreness. They may not be completely out of the playoff race now, but they can ill afford to lose against a Cleveland Browns team who lost pretty soundly against the Texans last week. The Panthers are still ranked better than the Browns but home underdogs are often pretty tempting and the Panthers are a pretty woeful 1-5 on the road. I’m hesitating on this one, which is never good so I’ll grab the points for the home team going against a poor road team and hope the Panthers don’t suddenly turn things round.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Colts @ Texans (-4.5)

The problem I have with this game is that I’m not sure which team is going to turn up as going into last week I was pretty confident in the Colts development on offence and the defence was doing enough for them to win but they got shut out by the Jaguars. Meanwhile the Houston Texans have now won nine straight and are putting themselves in contention for a bye week come the playoffs. This is the third of a three game home stand and I fancy the Texans to run out winners but this line feels big to me, or at least it would have until the performance of the Colts last week. I don’t know if the Colts will get back centre Ryan Kelly this week and in the end I have to respect the records and trajectory of both teams and so I’m nervously going with the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:       Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Ravens @ Chiefs (-6.5)

This is a really interesting matchup as it features two top ten teams by DVOA but there is still twenty-six percentage points between their overall DVOA values. The Chiefs got their tenth win of the season last week, but they gave up a lot of points to the Raiders and they can’t be happy with their receiving options given they signed just Kelvin Benjamin after he was released by the Bills. The Baltimore Ravens have won three straight since starting Lamar Jackson at quarterback who has given them something at quarterback even if it has been more to do with his legs than throwing ability. I like the Chiefs to run out winners, but the line concerns me as although the Chiefs have a really good home advantage, the Ravens have been really competitive and I can see this one being close. That said the Chiefs have won every game at home by at least a touchdown and that’s enough for me.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Patriots @ Dolphins (+8.5)

The records of these teams may say one thing about this game, but for whatever reason the Patriots consistently have problems when vising Miami and having only won one of their last five games visiting the Dolphins so I think this line is way too big. It’s more than possible that the Patriots will beat this trend and win this game, but I’m not predicting they will do it by nine points. You also have to respect Dan’s commitment to his alternative pick strategy as I think this is the first time I’ve seen him not pick the Dolphins and I don’t think this is the week to break that trend.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Saints @ Buccaneers (+8.5)

This is another big line, which this make this game a tricky one to pick. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a win against the Panthers that gives them a two game winning streak as they host the New Orleans Saints. The Saints were not themselves last week against the Cowboys and have had nine days to get over only their second loss of the season and get right. Weirdly the Saints’ only other loss this season was to the Buccaneers in week one and so this divisional game is definitely making me pause with the pick. I could regret this as the Buccaneer pass defense is not good but on the road I’m suddenly hesitant about the Saints even if I do expect them to win.

Gee’s Pick:       Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Giants @ Washington (-0.5)

So Washington are down to their third string quarterback signed a couple of weeks ago and last week lost both offensive guards in a game for the second time this season. It looks like the injuries have finally reached a critical mass for Washington, even if it does seem to have taken longer than might have been expected. This week they welcome a New York Giants team who rank better by DVOA and have won three out of their last four games. This won’t exactly help the Giants get a quarterback in the off-season but I think it does gives them a slight edge in this game and so I’m going to nervously grab the half point seeing as I do have to pick this game even if it feels like a stay away.

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Bengals @ Chargers (-14.5)

I want to break my own rules on this game as this line is too high because of course it is, except the Bengals have now put AJ Green on IR for the season and their defense has been rotten all year. Even the Chargers problems at home will not crop up in this one as I can’t see Bengals fans travelling in the numbers that some other team’s fans have to LA given the size of some of the road losses the Bengals have this season. My numbers say that this line is too big, but I don’t care as nothing in the losses to the Browns and Broncos since Dalton went down makes me think the Bengals can hang with a team like LA even if the line screams trap.

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

Broncos @ 49ers (+5.5)

This is a really interesting game to pick (I know but bear with me) as the Denver Broncos have a really good DVOA ranking, like fifth in the league and whilst I don’t think they are actually playing like that they have won three straight and have one of the rookies of the year in undrafted running back Philip Lindasy. They travel to face a San Francisco 49ers team who have some deeper problems than the offensive injuries as the defense is only ranked twenty-fifth by DVOA. The line is high enough to make me wonder, but with the Broncos’ pass rush and ability to run the ball I’m backing them to cover this one, although somewhat nervously.

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Eagles @ Cowboys (-4.5)

This is a huge game in terms of playoff races as the Cowboys can pretty much sew up the division if they can make the most of their momentum and beat the visiting Philadelphia Eagles whose title defense has suffered from injuries and departures, leaving their hopes of the playoffs hanging by a thread. The Eagles may have won two straight divisional games but the Cowboys will be rested and have the defense to contain an Eagles team who struggle to stretch the field in the passing game. I like the Cowboys to win this game but I’m not sure that in a divisional game that this might not be too many points to give away and with the importance of this game I’m going to back the Eagles to keep it closer than five but I could be very wrong.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Eagles

Lions @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals got a win last week against the Packers in Green Bay, but that hasn’t changed their position at the bottom of the DVOA rankings yet the Detroit Lions are closer to them than you might have expected given how they started the season. However, with injuries on offence and the trade of Golden Tate things are not going well for the Lions on offence whilst the defense currently ranks twenty-ninth by DVOA. The points are tempting as I have no faith in the Detroit Lions who have managed to confound with some wins against good teams but are 4-8 for a reason. I want to stay away from this game and for that reason and that reason only I’m taking the home underdog.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Steelers @ Raiders (+11.5)

I don’t know quite what is going on with the Pittsburgh Steelers but the combination of Ben Roethlisberger on the road with James Conner suffering a high ankle sprain means that whilst I think the Steelers will beat the Oakland Raiders, this is way too many points to hand a Raiders team who finished seven points behind the Chiefs last week. The Steelers’ defense is much better than the Chiefs, but with the Raiders getting this many points against a road team that don’t always travel well I’m going to nervously back them to keep it within twelve.

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Rams @ Bears (+3.5)

The Sunday night game should be a cracker as the LA Rams take their best record in the league to Chicago to face a Bears team who hope that the return of Mitchell Trubisky rights the ship after last week’s loss to the Giants. Both sides will feature well schemed offences and a pass rushing terror but I have more faith in the Rams to run out winners given they are further down the path with their current coaching staff. This is a really tempting amount of points and I am a sucker for a home underdog anyway, but that extra half point has me wondering if the Bears really can cover. In the end I don’t know what Trubisky will look like if he does play and so I’m going to plump for the Rams but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears make me look stupid.

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Bears

Vikings @ Seahawks (-3.5)

The final game of the week sees the 6-5-1 Minnesota Vikings travel to take on 7-5 Seattle Seahawks in what should be a cracking game. The problem for the Vikings is that their offence hasn’t quite come together this year despite the addition of Kirk Cousins and their defense is not the same as it has been in recent years. The Seahawks meanwhile have got their defense playing tougher than their DVOA  ranking of sixteenth would suggest and they have also got their offense playing better with Russell Wilson playing efficiently thanks to a productive running game. I like the Seahawks in this game and although the extra half point does give me pause, I think they have been the more consistent team recently and will cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings