Heroes, and the Divisional Weekend

16 Saturday Jan 2016

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Arizona Cardinals, Blair Walsh, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, David Bowie, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Washington

It has been a rough few days. Between Lemmy’s funeral, the Bengals’ implosion, and then Bowie’s death, I have been wandering around in something of a haze. That’s two music icons and personal heroes gone, along with the continuing twenty-five year wait for a playoff win. That’s not even a championship, but the hope that the team, fans, and the city of Cincinnati would be spared a fifth consecutive playoff loss, but I’ll come back to the Wildcard games in a bit.

In the days following Bowie’s death there have been some writing that they don’t understand the outpouring of grief over a musician, that this is someone that you have never met so why are you sad? The answer to that was put rather beautifully by Lauren Laverne on her Monday radio show, because of course it is personal, music has that strange and magical hook direct into your soul. It has the power to soothe, to inspire, it is the soundtrack to your life, and can take you back to a key moments from your past in an instant. Part of our identity is what we chose to love, what is important to us. This is the same process that makes someone care about the outcome of twenty-two men chasing a ball around a field, what films we like to watch, or what books we read. It is all a part of how we identify ourselves, how we express to the world who and what we are.

I have written before on the positive effects that sport can have, particularly with participation, but also for simply taking someone out of themselves. What I love about Bowie was his endless exploration of self-expression. This pursuit wasn’t a search for a new on trend sound that would help further his career, but the continuing development of a curious artist. I don’t have the single personal moment of a song telling me that I could do or be something that I have heard so many talk about in the last few days. I am too young for him to have revolutionised what was possible, for me it had already happened, but oh boy what a catalogue of songs. To me he was intrinsically intertwined with what a musician should be, and so as a drummer, therefore what I should aspire to be. I can’t hear Rebel Rebel without thinking about my dad, it was one of those conversations father and sons have across generations when they both love music. We all have heroes and influences. Some people have a select few. I could wax lyrical on scientists, politicians, artists of all hues, and yes sports people.

Even as I write the first draft of this blog, we have learned that Alan Rickman has also passed away, again aged 69 and killed by cancer. Death is not something we like to think about, it is an all too painful reminder of our own mortality. It is even more shocking when it comes as a surprise, when we were ignorant of the illness, when an album was only released three days earlier.

So how do I pull this back to sport of all things? Well by dint of the aforementioned discussion on policing grief. Like all things, there are degrees of grief. Life in all its infinite complex glory gives us endless things to care about, and usually concern over one thing does not deny concern about the other. We have to have some kind of balance, otherwise we’d collapse under the cares of the world. I am saddened by the death of a hero. But what about all the wars? My team lost a playoff game. Are you not concerned by the systematic dismantling of the welfare state? My team is moving city. Do I contradict myself? Very well then, I contradict myself. I am large, I contain multitudes.

With apologies to Walt Whitman, we’ll get back to football, and the various sets of fans that have had a pretty bad week as well.

The Houston Texans had done well to even make the playoffs, but last weekend really was one game too far. The game started with a one hundred and six yard kick off return touchdown by the Chiefs, and things never improved as the Texans slipped to a 30-0 loss. The defence actually gave a reasonable account of themselves, especially with JJ Watt having further injuries, but the offence was horrible. Racking up five turnovers, with Brian Hoyer throwing four interceptions and two fumbles, losing one to the Chiefs, things never got going in the passing game. In fairness, having your starting left tackle is always going to hurt, but the lack of options behind DeAndre Hopkins really hurt the Texans, and you have to think they will be looking to address this in the offseason.

I have said playoff win or bust for the Bengals all season, and it was another painful loss. However, if last year’s loss was explainable by the number of injuries to the skill positions on offence, then this one was understandable given the Bengals were without their starting quarterback and still gave a reasonable account of themselves in the fourth quarter. Despite not scoring in the first three quarters, AJ McCarron put the Bengals in a position to win the game, and they had the ball with 1:50 left on the clock. With a year left on his contract, building one of the league’s most talented rosters, and with his coaching tree still expanding, it appears that Marvin Lewis is safe for another year in Cincinnati, but he will have to address the issue of discipline/poise in the offseason. I have no issue with either of the late penalties that cost the Bengals this game, although Joey Porter had no business being on the field and another coach had already pulled Reggie Nelson’s dreadlocks on the sideline, but you have to be smarter than both Burfict and Jones were at the end of this game. I am sure the league will be looking at ways to control this fixture going forward as they will desperate to avoid the rancour escalating further given the Steelers and Bengals face each other twice a season. Already Hue Jackson has left to be head coach of the Cleveland Browns, so it will be another season of change at coordinator for the Bengals, but so much of the team’s recent success has been built through the offseason and draft that hopefully this part of the process will take care of itself once more.

The most painful loss of the Wildcard round has to be the Minnesota Viking’s agonising last second loss on a missed chip shot twenty-seven yard field goal. You have to think that Blair Walsh will be thinking about that kick for years to come, but this should not take the gloss of the continuing progress the Vikings have made, In ex-Bengal coordinator Mike Zimmer’s second year in charge the Vikings were able to wrestle the NFC North division away from the Green Bay Packers, and have a young foundation to build on. They need to sure up the offensive line and get Teddy Bridgewater some options on offence, but the Vikings have a very tough defence and are heading in the right direction. You can argue that they have the most to look forward to out of the four teams that were eliminated last weekend.

That said, Washington are also making good progress in another ex-Bengals coordinator’s second year in charge. Fittingly, old offensive coordinator Jay Gruden found a formula during the course of the season that turned quarterback Kirk Cousins into one of the most effective passers in the league in the final weeks. With two solid receivers and a very promising progression from tight end Jordan Reid there is hope for them next season. They will need to strengthen their defence, particularly in the secondary, if they want to compete in their division again next season, but they were able to compete with the Packers for three quarters. There looks to be a foundation to build from as long as they can sign Cousins to a sensible contract.

I will come back to the franchises that are moving in the offseason once all the deals have been firmed up, but I can’t help feeling sorry for the fans in St. Louis who are losing their team. It at least makes sense for the Rams to return to Los Angeles, and the offer has been made for the Chargers to join them. We will have to see if they agree, but it looks likely that they will be on the move in some way or the other. At least the Raiders look set to stay in Oakland, but I’m sure their fans won’t feel safe until the franchise finds a long term stadium solution.

So now onto this week’s games, which unsurprising all look to be great.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

All the talk about the Patriots is that they are getting all their key players back, and that just having Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski back will enable to Tom Brady to get the ball out quicker, helping the Patriots in pass protection. This is likely to be the deciding factor in this game, the Chiefs defence has been excellent for most of the season since they got corner Shaun Smith back from injury, but their pass rush will need to be effective if the Chiefs are to win this game.

The Patriots defence has been good for large chunks of the season, but the Chiefs have been getting it done without spectacular passing numbers from Alex Smith, who doesn’t turn the ball over. They actually seem to have improved since running back Jamaal Charles has gone down, but it will be interesting to see if they can scheme their way into competing in this game.

I wouldn’t like to call this game as there are too many injury unknowns, but I am expecting a good contest.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

I am looking forward to this game as the Cardinals are my favourite team left in the competition. Their aggressive long passing game has been effective against virtually everyone, whilst they got a huge amount of pressure on Aaron Rodgers the last time they played.

The Packers may have pulled away from Washington at the end of the game, but the offence still hasn’t proved to me that it can play against man coverage, which has been their downfall for much of the season. If they can turn the Cardinal’s aggressive pass rush against them, then they might be able to win this game as their defence has been playing well recently, but I am expecting them to come up short in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

The Seahawks are a good team, but they are lucky to be playing in this game. They should have lost against the Vikings if Blair Walsh hadn’t missed the last second field goal. Their offence got very little going last week except when for when Russell Wilson made plays out of structure, but the Seahawks defence is looking good once more and should keep them in contention.

However, the one area the Seahawks defence have struggled with is against tight ends, and Cam Newton’s favourite target this season has been tight end Greg Olson. The Panthers beat the Seahawks in week six, and with their own great defence you would expect them to repeat the feat at home. The Seahawks are always a dangerous proposition in the post season, but you don’t go 15-1 without being very good.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Our final game of the weekend sees Peyton Manning start the game after an injury plagued season where he has ranked amongst the worst quarterbacks in the league. We really can’t be sure how effective the offence will be against a Steelers defence that plays better than its patchy secondary, but the Broncos have been like this all season. What has got them into the playoffs is a fearsome defence, and although they had difficulties against the Steelers earlier in the season, they have been mixing more zone into their coverages, which might help them as the Bengals’ two high safety look did limit the Steelers’ passing attack.

The Steelers will be concerned about attempting their normal game on offence, as Antonio Brown has been ruled out of this week’s game with the concussion he sustained at the end of the game against the Bengals. Somehow Ben Roethlisberger is only questionable despite a sprained AC join and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. If you combine this with the injuries to their running backs and the Steelers might just be too injured to win this one. They will play the Broncos tough, but I would have more faith in the Bronco’s Brock Osweiler than Landry Jones if it does come down to a battle of the backups. I’m expecting the Steelers’ defence to blitz the Broncos heavily to keep themselves in the game, but I think this could be a week too many for the Steelers.

It should be a great set of games this weekend, and let’s hope the world eases up on us a bit going into next week.

The Start of the Offseason, and Wildcard Weekend

08 Friday Jan 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Analytics, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington

I approach this weekend with both excitement and trepidation. I have maintained from the start of pre-season that it was a playoff win or bust for the Bengals, and so of course they are playing the old enemy ten years after the hopes of Bengaldom were so cruelly dashed by the injury to Carson Palmer’s knee in their infamous 2005 playoff loss to the Steelers. I am not here to pillory the Steelers, but for those who know how badly I will take a loss this weekend, be assured that I will have people to watch over me.

The NFL season has this strange two tier effect in that for twenty teams the season is done, and so you get the so called Black Monday firings, although these seem to be moving into Sunday these days. Yet for twelve teams the season continues, but now the teams who have fired are looking for new head coaches, and there are always tensions as they try to find a gap to interview a coordinator from a playoff bound team to be their head coach. The system has existed for years, and I’m sure there are reasons that it cannot be altered, but it does feel like it would make more sense to get the season done with before signings could happen. I am sure that Hue Jackson is focussed on the game plan for Saturday’s game, but his upcoming interview with the Cleveland Browns has to be some kind of distraction.

Speaking of which, the Browns have been very quick out of the gate in terms of not only firing their head coach and GM, but also in hiring new people. There has been a fair bit of scepticism about the internal promotion of Sashi Brown to executive vice president of football operations and the hiring of Paul DePodesta, a baseball analytics executive from the New York Mets who was part of the famed Oakland Athletics “Monebyball” approach based on sabermetrics. I have some sympathy with the worry that with everyone seeming to report in to Jimmy Haslam that there might be problems with leadership, but I am cautiously optimistic about this for one simple reason. I have spent a lot of this year referring to the Browns as a mess, and they have done a bad job of constructing their roster, yet with these moves the team are clearly moving in the direction of analytics as being their approach. Only time will tell if they will stick to this path, and if they can make it work, but for the first time in a while it is actually possible to point to a plan in Cleveland. I am really hoping that plan is does not include Hue Jackson as it is bad enough that the Bengals are likely losing him from the team, without having to face him twice a year. Still it is early days, but I am very curious to see how things progress in Cleveland and if this new approach can take hold. And who know, if they are interested in analytics and new thinking, perhaps Chip Kelly will be getting a call.

If the Browns acted quickly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers caught Dan and I off guard by waiting until Wednesday night, Thursday morning UK time, after we had recorded the podcast to announce the firing of Lovie Smith. It appears that part of this decision might be a reaction to the Dolphins enquiring about their offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who is now seen as a strong candidate to become head coach. This makes sense in that having just drafted your franchise quarterback, you wouldn’t want to make him learn a new system in his second year. The other likely factor is that not only has Lovie Smith only won eight games during his two years in charge, but the defence did not look like it was progressing and that is his side of the ball.

Perhaps the most confusing of all the team moves was not a firing, but the extension of both Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson. It seems like all year we have heard about friction between head coach Pagano and his GM, whilst the team’s inability to protect the quarterback sunk them in a very winnable division. That Pagano was able to beat the Tennesse Titans with street free agent quarterbacks Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley only having a week’s practice indicates that Pagano perhaps deserver to be back, but given the questions many people, including myself, have about the approach Grigson has taken to free agency and the draft, it is surprising that he was retained. However, they are now tied together by contract for another four year so we will just have to see what the plan is in the offseason and if they can turn things around.

The offseason will continue to turn with or without me, so let’s take a look at the weekend games.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans

In the first of the Saturday games, the 11-5 Chiefs travel to face the 9-7 Texans, and they are somewhat similar teams. Both had bad starts to the season, strong defences, game managing quarterbacks, and a very high quality receiver. Somehow JJ Watt manage to amass 17.5 sacks despite playing with a broken hand for part of the season, whist the Chiefs defence found itself once the secondary solidified, and rookie corner Marcus Peters jointly leads the league in interceptions.

I am really looking forward to this game as I think there will be a lot of good defence on display, and both head coaches have done good jobs in keeping their team together through the bad starts and getting their teams to the playoffs. However, the Chiefs are currently on a ten game winning streak and finished the season ranked the fifth team overall by DVOA according to Football Outsiders, moving up to second in their weighted DVOA stat which emphasises recent performance more. I’m enjoying not having to predict games, but I think the Chiefs will likely win a tight bruising game to start the weekend.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

The big story of the Bengals coming into this game is that Andy Dalton is unlikely to play, as always seemed to be the case once he fractured his thumb playing the Steelers four weeks ago. The Bengals have what is widely regarded as one of the most well rounded rosters in the league, and certainly they are in better shape than they were coming out of the regular season. However, there is huge amount of press focus being place on Marvin Lewis and his zero playoff wins, and people do think the Bengals can win. The defence is good, and narrowly missed out on allowing the least amount of points in the league to the Seahawks whilst still setting a franchise record. The skill position players are still all available, but there is definitely a drop in play at quarterback, although he is making all the right noises and doesn’t so much look phased, as like a good young quarterback with only three starts.

The problem for me in trying to be objective about this game is that I am unreasonably nervous. The players are focussed on themselves, and very few have been here for all of the recent string of playoff losses. I think they will be isolating themselves from the city’s angst, but the fact of the matter is the crowd will be worried as they carry twenty-five years without a playoff win into the game. And of course it had to be the Steelers…

They have had injury problems, and a defence that can be patchy, but they are a tough scrappy team with one of the scariest receiver groups in the game. The Steelers come into the game with a solid win against the Bengals four weeks ago, and in fact Marvin Lewis is only 5-13 against the Steelers with four of those wins coming in Pittsburgh. I will be able to focus more on the Steelers when they make it through this game (I have no idea at this point if I’m trying to jinx them, or prepare myself for if they Bengals do lose) but for now let’s just say I want to get the game over with and no what the story of the offseason is going to be. I desperately want Marvin Lewis to get a playoff win as he has done so much to improve the state of the Bengals, and it would be so good if they could get on a run and Andy Dalton could put to the rest his critics as well, but for now, I’m moving on to games that I can think about with less trepidation.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minesota Vikings

The Vikings reward for beating Green Bay last week and winning their division is to host a red hot Seahawks team who finished the season as the top ranked team by DVOA. Another team to struggle early, they had problems holding onto leads, but the defence has found its way again, whilst Russell Wilson’s transition midway through the season into a very effective pocket quarterback despite, or perhaps because of the loss of tight end Jimmy Graham who the Seahawks traded for in the offseason, has made them a frightening proposition.

The Viking on the other hand, have been quietly solid all year as Mike Zimmer has taken them to a division win in only his second year as head coach. The defence is sure tackling, features Zimmer’s double A-gap blitz looks, and has only allowed an opponent to score more than twenty-three points twice all season. Sadly one of these was a game where the Seahawks blew them out 7-38, but they were missing three starters down the spine of their defence. However those starters have returned, and the weather forecast is suggesting it will be an incredibly cold game, which could hamper the suddenly explosive passing game of the Seahawks. However, the problem with this is that Adrian Peterson by his own admission has never adjusted to the very cold temperatures that can occur in Minnesota. Not only that, but whilst the Seahawks’ defence has had their problems this season, stopping the run has not been one of them, and they have been looking formidable once more in recent weeks.

I see this being a close game, but I would imagine the Seahawks are likely to continue on into next week.

Green Bay Packers @ Washington

The Packers have had a strange season thanks to the injury to Jordy Nelson, but are really struggling at the moment with constant shuffling of their offensive line due to injury, a stagnant run game, and receivers that are struggling to get open. Somehow Aaron Rodgers was able to get them into position to draw level with the Vikings at the end of last week’s game, but he is not elevating those around him, and it appears that the season has worn him down.

The Packers visit are travelling to face a Washington team who have one of the league’s better passing attacks at the end of the season. Their defence might not be that great, but frankly Kirk Cousins is the quarterback with the best form, and has put together a remarkable string of stats since the infamous, “You like that?” game.

I have a feeling that with the problems they currently have, and being on the road, that Washington may well win this game. However, with a decent defence, and Aaron Rodgers, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Packers found a way to win.

Week 16 Picks

27 Sunday Dec 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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NFL, Week 16 Picks

With writing around Christmas I thought I’d take a slightly longer look at each team as I go through the rest of the week sixteen picks and wait for Dan to send me his.

Panthers @ Falcons (+7.5)

The Falcons finally halted the skid last week as they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road. This year has definitely been an improvement, and I think it is too early to be thinking about replacing Matt Ryan, but they will need to solidify their line and give Ryan more passing options as well as improving their defence in the offseason if they want to continue the improvement next year.

Meanwhile the Panthers are coming off a win against the Giants in a game which the locker room were saying felt like a loss. The Panthers are unbeaten so far this season, and we are getting into that time of year where some teams will be thinking of resting players and I just don’t know what Ron Rivera will be planning to do with his team.

I am not expecting a repeat of the shutout win that the Panthers had in Carolina two weeks ago, but the Panthers will want to keep the stretch going and backup quarterback Derek Anderson won games last year if they do rest Cam Newton. Part of me wants to pick the Falcons as it is a divisional game and the Falcons would love to put a spanner in the works and end the unbeaten run, but I think the Panthers will go into the last game undefeated and I think they’ll cover the points too.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers

Cowboys @ Bills (-5.5)

The Bills have not lived up to their pre-season billing, with Rex Ryan making the defence demonstrably worse this season with basically the same pieces as last year. The offence has improved with Tyrod Taylor playing well in his first year as a starting quarterback and Sammy Watkins beginning to show his first round pedigree, but the Bills have been too ill disciplined to sustain success.

The Cowboys season was derailed by injuries to key offensive personnel, but if they were going to compete in a poor NFC East they needed to win more games whilst Tony Romo was initially out with a broken collar bone. They were unable to do this, and Romo came back early to pick up a win before reinjuring his collar bone.

This is a curious game for me to pick, but although I think the Bills should win, with them missing LeSean McCoy and the season they have had so far I cannot bring myself to back the Bills to win by six points. A feat they have only managed four times this season, and two of those were against a struggling Dolphins team.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys

Bears @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Buccaneers have faltered in the last couple of weeks, but they have still made strides this year and have at least solved the question of who will be their quarterback for the next few years. Not only has Jameis Winston put up some impressive figures, but he has not thrown as many interceptions as people feared given his college career. The defence will need to play more consistently next year for them to improve, and Winston could do with his offensive line getting better again next season, but there is at least something to build on.

It was thought that the Chicago Bears were going to be horrible this year, and the season certainly started badly, but slowly John Fox and his staff have made them competitive. I wouldn’t like to predict what moves they will make in the offseason, and if they are going to stick with Jay Cutler, but certainly the defence has begun to get comfortable in their new system.

The Bears are travelling to Tampa Bay coming off a third straight loss, but four of their five wins have come on the road this season. I am really not sure which way to go on this game as I don’t have much idea of how the game will go, but I can’t quite bring myself to back the Bears and have lost too many times picking road underdogs this season.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers

Browns @ Chiefs (-12.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs started this season horribly, going 1-5 before turning their season round and winning eight straight to get themselves back into the playoff hunt, and they still have a shot at winning the AFC West if the Broncos continue to drop games. Their defence is currently ranked fourth by DVOA, whilst their offence has found a way despite losing Jamaal Charles earlier in the season. The addition of free agent Jeremy Maclin has helped a passing game that famously struggled to get the ball to receivers last season.

The Browns are a mess, and it is hard to say much more than that. They have a head coach that has a defensive background, and yet have gone backwards on that side of the ball this year, whilst the offence has faltered and they don’t have a starting quarterback they all believe in or even trust. There are signs that Johnny Manziel has made some improvements on the field, but there have been further issues off it, and it is hard to see any team committing to him at this point. I say this as it is very possible Manziel gets traded in the offseason as there could be a front office shake up once the season is done. This a team that has done a bad job of finding talent in recent years and that has missed on too many first round picks, so it would not be a surprise if they start the offseason looking for a new GM.

The points are high for this game, but the Chiefs beat the Ravens by twenty points on the road last week, and welcome a Browns team that has the thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA. Not only that, but the Browns’ last close loss against a team with a winning record was back in week six against an offensively challenged Broncos team.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs

49ers @ Lions (-8.5)

The Lions have had a strange season that started badly and led to coach firings and their owner clearing house in the front office. The change in offensive coordinator does seem to have had an effect on the offence, but it is hard to know what direction they will go in the offseason until we know who will be making the decisions. This includes whether the Lions will keep Jim Caldwell, who managed to get the win last week against the Saints, but never strikes you as the most demonstrative of head coaches. I don’t know if this is actually a bad thing, but without following the team really closely or interacting with him as an individual it is hard to gauge, and hiring a head coach is one of the key things a GM gets to do so the new appointment may well want to pick their own candidate.

This week the Lions welcome the struggling 49ers to Detroit, but given the amount of talent the 49ers lost it is going to be a difficult few seasons in San Francisco. The most hopeful conversation I have heard recently for the 49ers is that in Blaine Gabbert they have found a quarterback that could hold the fort for them whilst they develop a quarterback behind him. Certainly the draft doesn’t seem to hold a ready to start quarterback this year and the 49ers have too many holes to reach for one if there is a better player at another position.

The 49ers defence has played better at home this year, but with them being on the road it is hard to foresee anything other than a win for the Lions, particularly as they lost to the Browns after their last win against the Bears. However, this feels like too many points to me, and so whilst I don’t feel confident about it I will back the 49ers to cover

Gee’s Pick: 49ers

Texans @ Titans (+2.5)

The Titans season has not seen them get a lot of wins, but their defence has been better this year, and they appear to have a young quarterback they can build round. This was not enough to keep Ken Whisenhunt in a job, and Mike Mularkey may not have won enough games to make the job his either. Only time will tell what is going to happen in Tennessee this offseason, but it will be one to keep an eye on.

The Texans have had a strange year, but thanks to playing in the AFC South and the problems in Indianapolis they stand atop of the division with a 7-7 record. They have had four different people play quarterback for them this year, thanks to a combination of the early indecision by head coach Bill O’Brien and recent injuries. However, the defence has come around from earlier in the season, and JJ Watt has quietly been having another stellar year despite breaking his hand in practice a couple of weeks ago.

The Texans may be on the road this week, but with the playoffs within their grasp I can’t see them losing to the Titans.

Gee’s Pick: Texans

Colts @ Dolphins (-2.5)

The Dolphins were one of the teams that had supposedly done well in the offseason, but as is often the case this did not translate into actual wins. There have been multiple coach firings and you have to think that interim head coach Dan Campbell will be gone at the end of the season. There are points of hope for the franchise, but as I have said multiple times on the podcast, they will need to address their secondary and offensive line if they want to compete in a tough division.

The Colts season has been a mess, and whilst backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck defied my reasoning that Ryan Grigson had not done a good job building a roster around Andrew Luck for a couple of games, he his now showing his age as repeatedly gets hit. Their offence has struggled all year, whilst their defence has taken a small step back, but there could be changes in the offseason as owner James Irsay cannot be happy with the way things have gone.

I don’t really want to pick either side in this game, but I will go for the home team.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Patriots @ Jets (+3.5)

The Jets have had a very good season in Todd Bowles’s first year as head coach, with both sides of the ball improving and some stability finally seeming to descend on an often turbulent franchise. Some of the additions in the offseason don’t look to be long term solutions due to the age of players, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has been undeniably effective with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker as they look to secure a playoff berth.

The Patriots season could have been derailed by injuries were it not for the continued excellence of Bill Belichick and his staff. For many there will always be an asterisk next to Belichick’s name, but he is an undeniably great coach and to keep his team winning with the injury issues they have had on the offensive line and receiver. The defence retooled their secondary successfully after letting their Super Bowl winning starting corners go in the offseason, but have managed to maintain their record despite changing their approach.

However, Belichick is already discussing resting starters having had it serve him well last season and with them being on the road I suspect this will be a tight game in New York given that the Jets only lost by a touchdown in New England. I could regret this, but I am going to take the points in this one as I believe it will be a close game.

Gee’s Pick: Jets

Steelers @ Ravens (+10.5)

The Baltimore Ravens are usually seen as a well run franchise, but the questions I had about their secondary were compounded by a string of injuries that has led them to have a horrible season. You would trust the infrastructure to rebuild successfully in the offseason, but this is a rare write-off year for this team.

The Steelers have had their own injury woes this season, including the loss of arguably the best running back in the league, but with an outstanding trio of receivers their offence is still terrifying and their defence has been doing enough for them to be making a late surge into playoff contention.

The Ravens lost a tight overtime game earlier in the season, and will be desperate to stick it to a divisional rival and possibly stop them getting into the playoffs. I would love to pick the Ravens, but with the questions at quarterback and how well the Steelers offence is playing I can’t bring myself to do it, so although it wouldn’t surprise me if the Ravens did manage to keep it close, I think the Steelers will cover.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers

Jaguars @ Saints (-3.5)

The Saints are in salary cap hell, and their defence has looked simply horrendous as it is rooted to the bottom of the Football Outsiders DOVA rankings with a huge gap to the thirty-first ranked San Diego defence. There are rumours of Sean Payton going to Miami, or any other team the Saints face with questions at head coach, but he has been unable to sort his defence suspensions since the Bounty Gate suspensions so it will be interesting to see how he does next season whether he is in New Orleans or not. They have managed to look good at times on offence, but Drew Brees is now dealing with a partially torn planter facsia having had shoulder problems early in the year, and he has been the reason the offence has worked when it has done so this could be a rough end to the season for the fans in New Orleans.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been maddeningly inconsistent this year, showing good progress on offence, but not quite being able to get results consistently. They have possibly done enough to keep head coach Gus Bradley in a job for another year, but the defence needs to improve if they are truly going to compete for the division. However, they have a good young nucleus on offence with a pair of receivers and a tight end that can compete with most teams, and if Black Bortles can reduce the mistakes further then they could be a real handful.

For this game, with Drew Brees as an injury worry and given the Saints’ passing defence, I will very happily take the points and hope the Jaguars don’t trip me up again.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars

Packers @ Cardinals (-4.5)

The Cardinals took a big blow with the loss of Tyrann Mathieu last week, but head coach Bruce Arians kept his team in contention last year despite losing two starting quarterbacks to injury so I trust that he will find a way. The Cardinals aggressive offence and defence has seen them win the AFC West, and they will be looking to make a deep run into the playoffs.

The Packers have had a difficult year, with struggles at times on both sides of the ball, but they have still made it to a 10-4 record that most teams would love to have. However, whilst the return of Mike McCarthy to play calling duties has produced wins in recent weeks, I am not convinced that it has solved everything and certainly the passing game is not functioning how we have come to expect from Aaron Rodgers.

The points make me pause slightly, but I think Arizona are the better team, and whilst there is a lot of talk that there will be a large number of Packer fans in attendance, I think that the Cardinals will win this one and cover these points.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals

Rams @ Seahawks (-13.5)

The Seahawks had a turbulent start to the season, but as has often been the case in recent years, come to the business end of the season the team starts to come good. The defence might have taken a slight step back when compared to their recent greatness, but Russell Wilson has started the transformation to a pocket passer and has really taken ownership of the offence since he lost tight end Jimmy Graham to injury.

The Rams have also had another turbulent season, but theirs seems to be ending in the usual nearly but not quite season. The defence hasn’t quite lived up to where they could be despite defensive tackle Aaron Donald having a monster season, but the real problem has been on offence. For much of the season they have had no real passing game to speak of, allowing teams to focus on stopping Todd Gurley once he was brought into the starting line-up. However, they do seem to have improved since the firing of their offensive coordinator two weeks ago, and whilst I don’t expect them to win this game, I do wonder if they can keep this game close than the points suggest.

I am not confident in this pick, but I will back the Rams to cover in divisional game.

Gee’s Pick: Rams

Gaints @ Vikings (-6.5)

The Vikings continue their progress under Mike Zimmer, with a tough defence and an offence that does enough for them to win. Whilst quarterback Teddy Bridgwater might not throw the prettiest ball you have ever seen, he seems to be progressing and has thrown for over three hundred and fifty yards for the last two games.

The Giants have been in contention for the NFC East for most of the year, but this has mainly been on the back of Eli Manning throwing to Odell Beckham. However, the talented young star lost control last week and won’t be playing this week after trying to knock Josh Norman out of the game. This could be the last season for Tom Coughlin despite winning two Super Bowls as he is the oldest head coach in the league and the Giants have not been consistent or good enough this season. In fairness, this team doesn’t have a lot of talent, and has particularly struggled on defence this year, so I will be curious to see what direction they take in the offseason.

This is a lot of points for the Vikings to cover, but under the circumstances I think they have enough to do it against a Giants team who don’t’ really have anything to play for any more.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings

Bengals @ Broncos (-3.5)

The Broncos have slipped in recent weeks. The defence was on another level earlier in the season, but needed to do better against the Steelers last week to get a win. That said, with turmoil at quarterback, and a running game that has been inconsistent, some might argue that they have done well to amass the record they have. It has been something of a transition year for the Broncos with a new coaching staff and offensive philosophy, but they look like they have found a serviceable replacement for Manning and I would expect them to resign Osweiler at the end of the season. They will be looking to hold onto a division lead and push on into the playoffs, but it is still possible for them to drop out of the playoffs altogether so welcoming a Bengals team missing their starting quarterback to Denver might be something of a relief.

The Bengals’ season has gone so well for much of the year, but the injury to Andy Dalton has really hampered their push for playoff success. The Bengals managed to get the win against the 49ers with a steady offensive performance, but it did not look easy and so it is hard to tell how they will go against an impressive Broncos defence. That said, the defence continues to play well despite the injuries in the secondary, and they have a chance to set a record for fewest points allowed in a sixteen game season. The aim for this season was always a playoff win, and a bye would give Andy Dalton an improved chance of being healthy and playing, but is hard to know if the Bengals will finally break the drought in their fifth straight try under Marvin Lewis given the circumstances.

I am always worried about the Bengals, which given their history is perhaps not surprising, but I am finding it hard to predict this game as we just don’t know what AJ McCarron is going to do. I’m going to reluctantly back the Broncos to cover, and I will be more than happy if my pessimism is proved to be ill-founded, but I suspect it isn’t.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos

Saturday Night’s Alright for Picking

19 Saturday Dec 2015

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NFL, Week 15 Picks

It is the last weekend before Christmas, we survived the last bits of shopping, I still have lots to write, and the NFL are trying to trick me with a Saturday game, but here’s Dan and mine’s pick whilst I write the rest of the usual weekend blogs.

Jets @ Cowboys (+2.5)

The Cowboys are somehow technically still capable of winning the division with a 4-9 record, but I think we can finally dismiss them as they are two games back from everyone else in the division with three games left. I don’t think they have enough to win this game against a Jets team who are one of three teams vying for a wildcard place in the AFC with an 8-5 record. The Jets offence continues to play well, whilst the defence should have more than enough to stifle the struggling Cowboys.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

F is for Fanatic, or fan.

17 Thursday Dec 2015

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AJ Hawk, Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals, Hue Jackson, Marvin Lewis, NFL, Pete Carroll, Philosophy, Seattle Seahawks, Sports, Week 15 Picks

This week’s column is brought to you by the letter f, which for the purposes of the blog will stand for fanatic, or fan, rather than what I was saying on Sunday. It was a rough day for Bengals fans with the excellent season crumbling before our eyes, and inevitably it had to be against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers seemed to maintain their composure that bit more than the Bengals, but it was a cruel blow to lose Andy Dalton to a thumb fracture. I don’t want to write a woe is me piece, or spill bile directed at the Steelers, but I wanted to take a moment with the end of the regular season looming to take a look at the experience of being a fan.

You may well have heard people make reference to fan being a contraction of fanatic, and whether this is a true derivation or a nice line, there is no question that there are a huge number of people invested in various sports teams across the world, and some of them can be very committed. I would tend to think of myself as informed rather than maniacal, but there’s no question that I was excessively upset with the situation on Sunday. In fact I was probably as upset as I was with the dispiriting playoff loss to the Colts last season. I bounced back fairly quickly from that game as there were so many injuries to the offence’s skill players that I didn’t buy into the Andy Dalton narrative about not being able to win a playoff game. However, the plain fact of the matter is that he hasn’t yet, and one of the wonderful things about this season was that through play alone Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton were changing that story, and I felt that it stood a very good chance of being put to bed this season. There’s still a slight chance that it might, but I wouldn’t back it to happen, although there’s a chance that if Lewis and Hue Jackson can work with AJ McCarron that a playoff win can be found and the leagues longest playoff win drought will finally come to an end.

The key thing for this column though is that here I am on a different continent, in a world beset by problems more serious than a team’s ability to beat another at a contest of strength, skill, and speed, yet still there was a significant period of time where what I was upset about the bad fortune that had befallen a group of people I have never met dressed in orange and black. And yet I don’t think this is necessarily a bad thing. Yes I would agree that a lot of professional sports people, particularly the men, are overpaid when compared to the truly important work that people put in for society, but that doesn’t mean I want to get rid of professional sports. These issues speak to the nature of markets and their interaction with society rather than a problem with sport. I won’t give you a complete treatise on the faults of free market capitalism, or pretend that I have a solution, but I do want to take a moment to examine the fan experience, sports, and why if we can maintain a sense of proportion that sport is important.

I have written before about the importance in coaching, and I don’t think it is a coincidence that sport coaches are often called in to give talks on management or write books on how to build successful teams. However, you average fan may not be reading books on coaching techniques, incremental improvements, or developing a coherent philosophy for success. However, I strongly believe that we all only have so much time that we can spend in focussed work. This is perhaps even more the case if you work in a high pressure situation, or for long hours. If we look back at human history, we see the need to escape the every day woven through the human experience. As a writer, a musician, and so technically an artist, I know how important it is to connect with people’s everyday experience, but also to take them out of themselves. I hate criticisms of escapism as very few people can be completely serious all of the time, and I’m not sure how much time you would want to spend with those who are. The ability to stretch your imagination, whether you are dreaming of being a Jedi Knight, scoring the goal that take Leicester City to the top of the league, or playing for your home town Bengals, is important. The ability to step outside of yourself, to escape the drudgery of your day, to take a well earned break, is really useful and I would definitely say life enhancing.

Very few people are given the physical talent and the opportunity to play professional sports, let alone pull off a move to their childhood team like AJ Hawk managed this offseason when he joined the Bengals. However, playing sports at any level is a useful way of keeping active, and if professional sports can inspire children to play a sport, and if as a society we can make that a habit so we have more adults exercising regularly, then we are already on the way to a healthier society.

The benefits of sport are not just physical though. I spend a large amount of time writing about the NFL because I enjoy, but it is also a type of practice. I’m never too sure how much faith I put in the idea of the 10 000 hour rule, but you don’t get better at anything without practice. I don’t just write about sports, in fact the first thing I started writing is fiction and over the course of the year that is what I spend the majority of my time writing, but this blog is a kind of cross training. Just as you hear of NFL players training in different sports in the offseason, or using martial arts training to help them play football, this blog helps me work on the discipline and craft required for writing. This however is not the only non-physical benefit of sport.

A team can help community in a city, or even further afield as sports become increasingly global, but the mental benefit is more than bringing a group of people together, or making you happy when a team wins. Going back to children’s participation in sport, this is a good place for a child to learn what it means to be part of a team, and how to work hard at something, and possibly most importantly, dealing with failure. Why is dealing with failure important? Because in a society that seems to be increasingly trying to protect children from failure, that praises success, we very seldom seem to focus on the steps that it takes to become successful.

In Seatle Seahawks’ head coach Pete Caroll’s book, Win Forever – Live,Work, and Play Like a Champion, Caroll outlines the steps and journey that took him to defining his coaching philosophy that he calls Win Forever. This is the philosophy he uses to approach coaching a football team based around his belief in competition, and how he thinks a football team should function, but also how he approaches life in general. I have been thinking about this as at the end of the book he also challenges the reader to come up with their own plan, which believe it or not I have been thinking about off and on since the spring. I wouldn’t say it’s coherent yet, and I haven’t got the definition down to twenty five worse or less, but I have the name. Process over outcome, which I grant you is not as snappy as Win Forever, but here’s the point – I don’t think you can always win. I don’t think you even should. Success does not come about through a series of success built on success, which in fairness is not what Pete Caroll is trying to say, success is the achievement of a goal through continuing a process in the face of adversity. To succeed at anything, first you have to fail. I’m in danger of sounding like an internet meme, but in a world of random probability it is impossible to absolutely guarantee an outcome for anything other than the most basic of tasks. However, by focussing on controlling the process, learning from your mistakes, and by continually trying to improve, you can maximise your potential for success, and that’s all anybody can do. I base this on my experience of playing drums for over twenty years and easily clocking 10 000 practice hours, and over the last twenty years or so I have clocked up a fair number of hours writing. However, not everyone has those interests, and another way to get there is sport. I don’t know how many hours I have spent running, but I am still learning and whilst I will never get close to international competition, I am still inspired by Paula Radcliffe, Haile Gebrselassie, Mo Farrah, and David Rudisha. I also love lifting weights, and through spending many years fighting gravity with a barbell I have learned about discipline, dealing with adversity, and persistence.

I am not saying there are no problems in sport, in fact if you have been listening to the podcast you will have heard me point out huge failings in the way the NFL runs. I’m also not saying that being overly obsessed with your team isn’t a problem – obsession taken too far can definitely cause problems, but if obsession can be harnessed it can also lead to greatness. I may love writing, I may adore the arts, but I love sport as well, and being a fan is as much of my personality as anything else. I don’t mind if you don’t love the NFL, but don’t give up on sport, I am sure that if you look there’s something out there for you.

Moving away from my soap box, I’m also pretty damn competitive, so I won’t pretend that I’m not happy about having an eight game lead over Dan with three weeks to go of the regular season, but I’m not overconfident so let’s get to the Thursday night game and the first of our picks for week fifteen.

Gee: Week 14 7-9 Overall 108-100
Dan: Week 14 8-8 Overall 100-108

Buccaneers @ Rams (-0.5)

The Rams caught me of guard last week by playing well, but they have a history of winning games that make you think they are turning a corner, and then sinking straight back into the mire. The Buccaneers have definitely made progress this year, but were handled surprisingly easily last week by a Saints team that have not been good this season and who have had real problems all season on defence. The Rams defence is definitely better than the Saints and so I should have pause this weeks, but whilst I’m nervous, I simply do not trust the Rams in this situation.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Vikings at Cardinals, and Week 14 Picks

13 Sunday Dec 2015

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Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals, Deone Bucannon, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, Tyrann Mathieu, Week 14 Picks

It was another great Thursday night game this week, which saw the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Arizona Cardinals, and they were much more effective than I was expecting despite the injuries in their defence, but that’s not where I will start.

The Cardinals began the game moving the ball well, but couldn’t finish their first drive and had to settle for a field goal. The Vikings in contrast put together a highly effective first drive, with Adrian Peterson looking like he was going to dominate the game as he carved up the Cardinals defence, and made some amazing jump cuts to get his touchdown. However, the Cardinals adjusted and in later drives limited him effectively as they made several tackles for losses. Not only that, but one of the Vikings three fumbles was caused when Josh Mauro cam bursting through the line and tackled Peterson as he attempted to make the pass to a receiver on a reverse play. So if the Vikings didn’t dominate on the ground, how did they stay in the game? The answer is that they came into this game with a plan for dealing with the Cardinals’ pressure schemes in the pass game and were able to throw the ball successfully with Teddy Bridgewater completing twenty-five of thirty-six attempts to eleven different receivers for three hundred and thirty-five yards and a touchdown. A lot of this was on little dump offs and screen passes to counter the pass rush and so whilst no one player dominated, the Vikings were effective moving the ball. The timing of a lot Bridgewater’s throws was good, which they have to be as his balls do seem to hang in the air and I imagine he would not be a relaxing quarterback to watch week in and week out if the Vikings are your team.

The Cardinals were equally as good moving the ball on offence, but could have won this game more easily if they were more effective closer to the goal line. They went 0-2 in the red zone, kicking three field goals and scoring two long passing touchdowns. The aggressive vertical passing game is the defining feature of the Cardinals offence under Bruce Arians, and in Carson Palmer he really has the quarterback to execute it. Not only that, but Arians really has this team playing for each other and nowhere was this more visible on the field than the Cardinal’s second touchdown when three Vikings players bit on an inside route leaving both Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald open. Carson Palmer said after the game he saw that they were both open and threw the ball between them and hoped, although on the coaching tape Floyd is in front of Fitzgerald so it does look like Floyd was the intended target, but the impressive thing for me was Fitzgerald’s block on safety Anthony Harris that opened the way for Floyd to finish a forty-two yard touchdown pass. The crazy thing is that this was not even the longest passing play of the day with John Brown demonstrating his flat out speed as he took a pass to the end zone to complete a sixty-five yard touchdown pass. It should be noted that whilst the vertical passing game is the defining feature, the Cardinals do not ignore the run game, with rookie David Johnson gaining ninety-two yards from nineteen carries, keeping the Vikings defence honest.

So we have seen how effective both offences were, but this was not a high scoring game and as such we shouldn’t overlook the defences. The Vikings defence had some bad moments like the miscommunication on the second touchdown play that had three defenders follow one receiver’s inside route, but they were generating consistent pressure in the passing game and if they only sacked Palmer twice and hit him a further six times, this looked like it was a function of how quickly Palmer was getting rid of the ball rather than impressive offensive line play. They also managed to bat away six passes, and whilst by no means dominant, they absolutely gave the Vikings a chance to win on the road despite on a short week whilst carrying a number of injuries.

Part of this was due to the boom or bust nature of the Cardinals’ aggressive blitzing on defence, which only gained the Cardinals one more sack and one less quarterback hit. The problem with that is the extra sack was Dwight Freeney pulling off one of his trademark spin moves and getting to Teddy Bridgewater on the last play of the game. However, what I was impressed with was the play of the two defenders I am intending to watch on coaching tape next week in Deone Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu. They led the team in tackles, with Mathieu getting ten solo and Bucannon seven. Not only that but they both had tackles for a loss, Mathieu batted a quick out pass in a way I’ve not seen before, somehow guessing right immediately and getting a hand to the ball as it was in the air but still behind the line of scrimmage, whilst Bucannon forced one of the Vikings three fumbles and recovered the ball. I wonder if the Vikings would have had the same success late in the game if the Cardinals had kept a few more players in coverage, but that doesn’t seem to be in Arians and his coaching staff’s nature and it certainly makes the Cardinals a highly entertaining team to watch.

This was a great game, and I thought the Vikings had a very credible outing in a game I was expecting to be very one sided. A lot of the post game focus is on the final play call, with some arguing the Vikings should have just kicked the field goal, and others saying that with a good quarterback you try to make the field goal easier and it was just a bad play by Bridgewater. I think this is one of those situations where whatever play you call, if it goes wrong the coach will be criticised, but whilst the Vikings will need to start getting some wins to stay in the playoff hunt, only the Seahawks are able to join them and the Packers on eight wins this week so they stand a very good chance of joining the Carolina Panthers and the Cardinals in the playoffs. The Cardinals now have the division sewn up, but could do with working on their red zone efficiency if they want to be truly terrifying, but no one will want to face this team in the post season.

And now onto our picks for the rest of week fourteen.

Falcons @ Panthers (-7.5)

The Falcons are settling into an eight and eight season kind of a season, which is still an improvement on last year, it just came in a very lopsided way thanks to their impressive start, but they really need to get some pass rush to help get their defence sorted out in the offseason. They travel this week to Carolina to face the unbeaten Panthers who they have to play twice in the coming weeks. I’m not sure the Panthers will go unbeaten, but games against the Giants in week fifteen and the Buccaneers in week 17 look like more likely losses, and I think they will have too much for the Falcons in both Carolina and Atlanta. The points give me a little bit of pause, but in the end I can’t look past Cam Newton and the Panthers’ defence in this one.

Gee ‘s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Bills @ Eagles (-0.5)

The Eagles may have beaten the Patriots last week, but they conceded a lot of late points to a team with very few options in the passing game and a patchwork line, whilst getting touchdowns from their defence and special teams. They are still not a team that you can trust, whilst the Bills seem to be doing it on offence rather than defence, but have an outside chance of making a wildcard place. In a straight pick the winner situation I am going for the road team, nervously…

Gee ‘s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Washington @ Bears (-3.5)

The Bears are coming off what they will likely see as a frustrating loss to the 49ers, and will have a point to prove against a Washington team that has not been good on the road. The difference in Washington’s performance on the roach and at home is quite startling, so I’m not going to back them to get their first road win in Chicago this week.

Gee ‘s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Steelers @ Bengals (-3.5)

This is game of the week, as it’s always a good contest between these two teams, but the Steelers offence is working so well at the moment and they are exactly the wrong team for the Bengals to be facing with the injuries mounting up in their secondary. I will be very happy to be proven wrong, but I simply don’t have as much faith as Dan in the Bengals this week.

Gee ‘s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

49ers @ Browns (-1.5)

I am not sure why the Browns are getting points against anyone at the moment, particularly with Johnny Manziel starting at quarterback. The Browns have had an amazing stretch of failing to find a franchise quarterback, and this season is falling apart spectacularly giving them the opportunity to mess up a high pick again. The 49ers are by no means a good team, but given the amount of talent they lost and the division they play in, getting four wins is better than how things looked early in the season and I think they will add to their win total this week.

Gee ‘s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Lions @ Rams (-0.5)

The Rams continue to slide, whilst the Lions have a defence that is now playing well and a system that is functioning better on offence. The Rams offence is so focussed on Gurly and has so many problems in the passing game that I don’t think they will win this one.

Gee ‘s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Titans @ Jets (-7.5)

The Jets keep going, and are truly in the hunt for the wildcard place, but whilst I expect them to beat the Titans, this number of points make me nervous given the Titans defence has played okay in stretches this season. Part of me wants to pick the Titans to cover in a loss, but in the end I can’t bring myself to make the pick.

Gee ‘s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Colts @ Jaguars (-1.5)

The Colts fell back to earth last week in the AFC’s own division that no one wants to win, losing to the Steelers badly and getting Hasselbeck injured in the process. The forty year old quarterback has practised all week, but the Colts are a team I don’t trust. The problem for me is that so are the Jaguars, who seem to play well enough to put up a good showing, but make too many mistakes to win regularly. This is another game where part of me wants to pick a team, but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. I know the Jaguars are at home, but I’ve been bitten too many times to back them in this one, which is probably their cue to get the win.

Gee ‘s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Chargers @ Chiefs (-9.5)

The Chargers surprised me in week 12, but it was against the Jaguars and could get nothing going against the Broncos defence last week. I don’t expect them to have much luck against the Chiefs this week either, and whilst divisional games can be funny, I think the Chiefs will cover in a game they need to win to stay in the playoff hunt.

Gee ‘s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Saints @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The New Orleans Saints offence seems to be hit and miss, but they’ve just lost running back Mark Ingram for the rest of the season, whilst the Buccaneers have really come on during the course of this season. This is usually the sign that things are going to go wrong for the Bucs, but I think they will win this one at home in Tampa Bay and so I’m going to back them. Sorry Bucs fans…

Gee ‘s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Ravens (+8.5)

The Seahawks are playing good football on offence, with Russell Wilson seemingly beginning the transition to a pocket quarterback, and Thomas Rawls continuing to run well. They absolutely hammered the Vikings last week with their defence pitching a shut out. This is a lot of points for the Ravens to be getting, particularly as they have specialised in close games all season, but Matt Schaub is a pick six throwing machine these days, and I think this is finally the game where the Ravens’ problems finally are reflected in the score. I wouldn’t be too surprised if they kept it close though…

Gee ‘s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Raiders @ Broncos (-7.5)

The Broncos keep rolling with great defence and just enough offence to win, but whilst I think they will be able to run on the Raiders and win, I do wonder if they are this much better given how effective Derek Carr and Amari Cooper have been in the passing game. I’m going for a Raiders cover.

Gee ‘s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Cowboys @ Packers (-7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys got a win last week, and somehow are still not out of the race in the NFC East despite only having four of them. This week they travel to face a Packers team that got a stunning last minute win last week, but are still not playing well on offence. They will have had some extra days to try to get healthy on the offensive line, but I’m not sure I feel comfortable backing them to win by this much over anybody at the moment. I could regret this as I still think the Packers will win, but I have a feeling the Cowboys keep it closer than this.

Gee ‘s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Patriots @ Texans (+3.5)

I was all set to pick the Texans in this one, and then Sir JJ of Watt broke his hand in training, and whilst he will be playing this weekend, I think this is one obstacle too many for the Texans. I don’t know if Rob Gronkowski will play, although he’s made the trip from New England to Houston, but it’s hard to see the Patriots losing three in a row for the first time in forever.

Gee ‘s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Gaints @ Dolphins (+0.5)

The New York Giants seem to be a team that wins or loses off the back of which Eli Manning is playing and Odell Beckham making spectacular catches. I’m not sure if this will be enough to beat the Dolphins in Miami, but given their recent run of form and the problems in the Dolphins secondary I suspect it might.

Gee ‘s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Thoughts on Linebackers and Safeties

10 Thursday Dec 2015

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AJ Hawk, Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Deone Bucannon, Emmanuel Lamur, NFL, Rey Maualuga, Ryan Tannehill, Tyrann Mathieu, Vontaze Burfict, Week 14 Picks

The league is heading into the final quarter with only a number of teams still in the hunt for the playoffs, although things are beginning to settle. Even so, teams that are completely out of the playoff race are still generating plenty of headlines.

The Cleveland Browns on/off dalliance with Johnny Manziel being there starting quarterback only further demonstrates the dysfunction at the top of this franchise. There are rumours flying round of conflict between those who want Manziel to start, and those for whom he has already burned his bridges with. You can see how a coaching staff that will want to be getting hired again next year if they can’t secure their jobs this year, a coaching staff who want to win games, could come into conflict with a front office group who need to know what they have in an their first round pick from two years ago and whether it is time to move on already. The problem is that with the turnover in both coaches and front office staff, it is very hard to establish a culture and go through the process it takes to turn around a franchise in trouble, and very often it seems like when a team is turned into a success, this improvement is built off the back of previous regime’s work. That said, there has been such a carousel at quarterback and staff at the Browns that it is hard to know when things will turn round.

I don’t want to pile on to the poor Browns so I’ll stop using them as an example, but I did want to pick up on a couple of things from listening to the Ross Tucker podcast this week, without turning the column into an advert, and also tie this in with tonight’s exciting game between the Cardinals and the Vikings.

On his usual Wednesday spot, regular guest Andrew Brandt was speaking about why he was a fan of Chip Kelly, and specifically talked about him as an agent of change, and that this was a rare thing in a lot of aspects in coaching. This could be seen as a curious concept given how often we hear about coaching innovations, but it seems that very often what we hear described as innovation is in fact a new wrinkle or a variation on a concept. Spread offences and pass first offences are not a new concept, but the sophistication of modern schemes is, however equally you will hear from retired players that the technique at certain positions is in decline and that this could be due to the reduced amount of time that coaches get to work with their players, particularly in the more physical drills. I don’t want to delve too far into this, but what it did get me thinking about was that if you compare the sophistication with which coaches and management are dealing with the way that a football team is constructed and plays, versus the way the media breaks down the roster then maybe we are missing a trick or two.

There was a great discussion between Ross Tucker and Greg Cosell today about tonight’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings, and the bit that grabbed me was their discussion about Deone Bucannon who Cosell described as a 210 Ibs linebacker, although he’s listed on the Cardinals’ website as safety. Now they were talking about whether this was the future of the position, these what would be traditionally undersized linebackers who could cover and cope in this age of spread defences. One of the reasons I love Cosell is he’ll always state when hasn’t seen something or can’t speak on it, but also how he’ll remained balanced, and he countered Rot Tucker’s question on how much you needed heft at the point of attack these days with the way the league is going by saying that this is not absolutely the case and let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I don’t want to get pick holes with either of them as they both know more about football than me, the podcast can be found here, but it did get me thinking.

Firstly, this weekend I am going back to look at the coaching tape from last week’s Ravens @ Dolphins game as Dan would like me to take a look at Ryan Tannehill’s performance. Next week I think I will take a look at the Cardinal’s use of Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu as I’ve been meaning to look at the Cardinals use of extra DBs in there defence for a while.

Secondly, the conversation about the future got me thinking again about linebacker groups, and something I have thought about before concerning them and the use of specialist safeties. I’ll apologise for bringing things back to the Bengals, but they are the team I watch week in and out, so in this case it easier to demonstrate what I am talking about by using them as an example in discussing the analysis of roster construction and how we talk about building a team.

In the offseason linebacker was one of the areas of concern for the Bengals as they had been banged up last season, had really struggled to defend the run when Rey Maualuga was out injured, plus Vontaze Burfict who had really come into his own was also injured and would be coming of microfracture surgery going into this season. The Bengals approach wasn’t to go out and secure a high price starting linebacker in free agency or draft a linebacker high, but neither was it to fill their roster with a middle linebacker, weak and strong side backers and then backups. Instead they drafted a linebacker, signed AJ Hawk as a free agent and resigned Maualuga. I know some were not sure about this approach, or what they did with the defensive line, but what was clever is that they built themselves a group with a set of complimentary skills and gave themselves depth. They have the ability to rotate their linebackers to have the right players for the job depending on who they are playing. Facing a team who power run up the gut, then that offence is going to have to deal with Rey Maualuga in the A gap, but if you’re facing a spread offence then you can drop into a nickel defence with the extra db, but also with a speedy linebacker like Emmanuel Lamur to help cover those linebackers who cause all those matchup problems.

For me this is an area where teams could innovate, that tweener safety/linebacker that so often was a concern in the draft, could become the new tool to help cover those nightmare tight ends and help deal with spread concepts. However, I’m wary of saying that is will become the new way of doing things. Sure you may have some lighter starters, but with this age of injury and increased difficulty for defences, maybe there is an edge to be found in crafting a linebacker group to have multiple types of player designed to rotate snaps in different amounts depending on the situation. I don’t think the days of the run stuffing middle linebacker are over, but possibly gone are the days when they are the star of the defence and play a lot of snaps, but if the balance in the NFL tips too far towards speed defences, then you can bet your bottom dollar that someone will start running power running games with success.

So I shall look forward to take a close look at the defence of the Cardinals as we go back into my picks competition with Dan, who slipped further behind again last week.

Gee: Week 13 10-6 Overall 101-91
Dan: Week 13 8-8 Overall 92-100

Vikings @ Cardinals (-7.5)

This is a really bad spot for the Vikings as they will be missing three starters on defence again this week, and the last thing they really need it so be travelling from Minnesota to Arizona to face a Cardinals team that is going from strength to strength. I would usually expect this to be a closer game, but with the match ups and timing favouring the Cardinals I am going to back them to cover this in a game I’m really looking forward to.

Gee ‘s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

What I Have Learned this Season, Packers @ Lions, and Week 13 Picks

06 Sunday Dec 2015

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Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, NFL, Pete Carroll, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers, Week 13 Picks

We are one week away from being three quarters of the way through the season, and I know how I’m feeling so what it must be like for the players I don’t know. As I’m finally getting a chance to sit down and write I thought I would take a look at some of the things I have learned through the course of this season, particularly in the light of recent results.

It is a long season. It’s a marathon not a sprint. We are used to the coverage discussing how long the season is, but this year I have really noticed the ebb and flow that occurs during a single team’s season. The New England Patriots may have a 10-1 record, but the injuries have slowly accrued to a point where they have lost their first game, and it wouldn’t necessarily surprise me if they drop some more, at least until they can get Rob Gronkowski back on offence. But it is not just the attrition throughout the season that needs to be taken into account; coaching and progress should be looked at as well. The Kansas City Chiefs had a bad start to the season, going 1-5 before turning things around, winning five straight and getting themselves back into the playoff hunt. If the season ended today they would have a wildcard spot, and whilst the return of their corner Sean Smith has had a huge effect on their pass defence, turning them into one of the better defences in the league, they have also had to deal with the huge loss of running back Jamaal Charles, usually central to theor offence, so there is more to it than one player coming back. That said, too many injuries in one position can completely derail a team. There is no excuse for the state of the San Diego Chargers defence, but there have been so many injuries to their offensive line that you can see why they have had so many problems protecting Philip Rivers this year.

With all that said, sometimes it just takes time for a team to gel. I was as critical as anyone regarding what Bill O’Brien was doing with his quarterbacks in Houston at the start of the season. The old saying that if you have two quarterbacks then you don’t have any seemed very apt. Not only was this causing problems, but despite having some very recognisable names on the defence, including arguably the best player in football, the Texans were giving up a lot of points, giving up over forty twice as they started the season 2-5 as their defence struggled. However, once Ryan Mallet finally pushed management too far by missing the team plane down to Miami and finally got himself cut things started to settle on offence a little. More importantly though, the defence finally seemed to find its identity, allowing opposition offences less than ten points three times in the last four games as they rolled off four straight wins to get them back into the AFC South race.

One team who are very much not moving in the right direction are the Philadelphia Eagles, with one of the things that I misjudged being how their form in pre-season and would translate into the regular season. I was already aware that the teams do not game plan in the preseason, and mainly what I enjoy is getting a first look at the year’s draft class and the development of young players who may not get that much playing time during the actual season. However, everyone was take in by how well the Eagles offence was performing during the preseason, but once the regular season got under way it quickly became apparent that all was not well on that side of the ball. There is a lot of debate as to whether Chips Kelly’s up temp offence can continue to work in NFL, reliant as it is on simple concepts that are repeated frequently as it simply not possible to run that many different concepts at that pace. This in of itself doesn’t worry me so much as what appears to be Kelly’s reliance on his system. I was as impressed as anyone by Chip Kelly’s early success in Philadelphia, and this was only further enhanced after hearing an extended interview with him talking about his practice regime. However, the first problem I see with the Eagles is to do with the level of buy in that he demands of his players, which I can understand as a concept and certainly contributed to his college success. In the NFL though, as good as a coach as you are, there are thirty-one other coaches at the top of their game, with an enormous amount of time invested in preparation. You can find edges through coaching, but at the NFL level such advantages are very fine, and you can very rarely win outright by outcoaching your opponent, at some point you need to create mismatches and have enough players win their one on one matchups to win a game. Kelly though, has shipped out a surprising amount of talent from the Eagles in favour of young players who he can mould, this may work out if he is given time, but the players right now are not as good and you only have to look at the play of the offensive line now compared to when he joined to see that certain groups have taken a step back. Not only is there this to contend with, but if you are a system coach, you walk a very fine line as you need the right players to run your system perfectly and these might not always be available. Finally, if you are an innovator, particularly one with a track record in college rather than in the pros, then people will start to second guess you if things are not going well, and they certainly are not in for the Eagles in recent weeks.

I don’t think there is anything wrong with having a coaching philosophy, in fact having read Pete Carroll’s book in the offseason I think that sitting down and actually developing your philosophy into a coherent core that you can clearly articulate is of huge benefit. That said, I also think that if you introduce a degree of flexibility into your approach, being prepared to compromise to make the most of the players you have, then this can lead to more sustainable success. If you want proof of this then just take a look at the way that Bill Belichick and his staff continually scour the league and get something out of players that other teams have failed to do so.

Further proof of this maxim can be found in the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, who no one was expecting to play like this at the beginning of the year. There were concerns about their offensive line and they lost their leading receiver from last season before the season had even started. However, they are getting what they need out of the players that they have, and there is perhaps no finer microcosm of this philosophy than what they are doing with Cam Newton. There are not too many six foot five, two hundred and forty-five pound quarterbacks in the league (Newton’s size according to the Panthers’ website), with Cam’s ability to run the ball. However, they built a running game around the dual threat of him and running back Jonathan Stuart, as well as utilising his connection with tight end Greg Olson and ability to throw the deep ball. He may not show the touch that you would ideally like, but he has been undeniably effective since Ron Riviera felt Newton was healthy enough during the 2014 season to use the offensive game plan they had been keeping under wraps since the preceding preseason because of the injuries Newton had been carrying. You may still worry about the long term effects of a quarterback taking this many hits, but he is built like a football player, and still has time to work on a transition such a Ben Roethlisberger has made, into a pocket passer.

One of the things that I do think is important in the successful running of a sports club is giving a coach time, which seems to be given in increasingly smaller amounts these days across many sports, and even the NFL is starting to follow this trend. We have had several coaching changes, with two head coaching firings that have brought dubious results, and several coordinators taking the fall. However, the Lions took this a step further when their ninety year old owner declared that enough was enough, and she fired the GM along with the head of operations. This was after Jim Caldwell had fired his offensive coordinator and the coaches that had been working with their offensive line going into their trip to London. This did not produce immediate results, as I witnessed in person as the Lions were systematically taken apart by the Kansas City Chiefs at Wembley. However, following the additional firings and their bye week the Lion’s had won three straight games going into week thirteen including their first win in Green Bay since 1991 off the back of improved defence performances, but crucially an offence that seems to be coming together under new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. This all leads me quite nicely to Thursday’s return fixture in Detroit.

Packers @ Lions

There isn’t quite time for me to do a full game write up, but there was now way I could skip over the Miracle in Motown, which I am sure you will have heard of by now. If not, the game came down to a last ditch drive, where on what should have been the final play of the game, a facemask penalty called on a Lions’ defender led to one final play with no time on the clock. This has only happened in the NFL a total of five times, and two of them have been this season. In this case, the Lions rushed three and failed to stop a sixty-one yard Hail Mary pass to tight end Richard Rodgers that won the Packers the game. But it very easily could have finished a different way.

In the first quarter the Packers struggled, finding it difficult to move the ball and they ended the quarter seventeen points down. The Lions were able to move the ball, and when Aaron Rodgers threw only his fifth interception of the year, Matthew Stafford immediately answered with a seventeen yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson. However, the Packers defence stiffened in the second quarter, but the offence continued to struggle and failed to score before half-time, leading to a twenty point deficit.

The Packers slowly dragged themselves back into the game in the second half, with solid defence and a key strip of Matthew Stafford by Julius Peppers that swiftly led to a second touchdown meaning that the Lions lead was down to six by the start of the fourth quarter.

It has to be said that the Packers offence still struggled in the second half, but third string running back John Crocket added a small spark in the running game, but the most effect methods the Packers found to move the ball were screen passes/dump offs to James Starks, and passes to Richard Rodgers who finished the game with one hundred and forty-six yards from eight catches, including the game winning touchdown to seal the game.

The Packers may have got back to winning ways, but it was not in the way that they would have envisaged, and the Lions will be kicking themselves about how late they left it in the season before they found a formula that works. If the Lions can find suitable replacements for their front office, there are things that they can build on for next season unless they chose to blow things up, but we shall have to see what path they chose to take. The Packers meanwhile have kept themselves in playoff contention, but they will need to find a more stable formula if they want to make sure of getting there and leaving a mark in the post season.

And now on to the rest of this week’s picks:

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Flacons need to stop turning the ball over if they want to get back to winning ways, and they are running out of time if they want to get back into the playoff hunt given Seattle’s recent improvements. The question will be whether they are going to start this turnaround against a Buccaneers team that have definitely improved in recent weeks. The Falcons might be getting Devonta Freeman back this week, but the Bucs actually rank second in the NFL in rush defence by DVOA according to Football Outsiders, as well as being the higher ranked team in both general and weighted DVOA, which is leading me to nervously back the home team in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Texans @ Bills (-2.5)

The Bills have been better in recent weeks, but are still up and down, with the only unit on either team I really trust being the recently very stingy Texans’ defence, so that is where I’m picking in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

49ers @ Bears (-6.5)

The 49ers defence has been okay at home in recent weeks and Blaine Gabbert has at least looked like a competent NFL quarterback, but this week they are in Chicago and not San Francisco. Add the travelling across country to the fact that the Bears are progressing in John Fox’s first season and are coming off a road win in Green Bay, and I think I have to back the Bears in this one despite the points.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Bears

Bengals @ Browns (+6.5)

This feels like a trap game for me in that the Browns and Bengals games have often been close contests, with this game being in Cleveland and NFL touchdown leader Tyler Eifert likely missing the game, I could see the Bengals struggling to cover these points. However, there are still so many options for Andy Dalton that I think they will cope in this game against a Browns team who are on a short week.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Jaguars @ Titans (-2.5)

The Jaguars just squeaked out a win only a couple of weeks ago when they entertained the Titans, and with the injury to Allen Hearns you might be tempted to back the Titans at home in this one. I am always wary of long streaks as they have to end at some point, and it has been a very long time since the fans in Tennessee have seen their team win in person, but I can’t bring myself to pick them doing it this week with this many points.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Cardinals @ Rams (+5.5)

The Rams under Jeff Fisher have often kept their games with the better teams in the league close, and actually beat the Cardinals in Arizona earlier in the year. However, their offensive line is a mess through injury, they have very little passing game, which allows a defence to focus on bottling up Todd Gurly. The Rams defence might be very good, but the Cardinals offence has been lighting everybody up and I have a feeling they will want to get revenge as they head into St Louis.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Ravens @ Dolphins (-4.5)

I’m really torn on this game, as the Ravens have kept every game close, but it took two special teams touchdowns for them to beat the Browns last week, and they are travelling to Miami on a short week to play on the road for a second week in a row. The Dolphins have just fired their offensive coordinator as Dan Campbell was not happy with the play calling or rush/pass balance. However, the Ravens run defence is still solid and I am not sure the Dolphins truly have the passing game to take advantage of the Ravens’ defensive frailties. Almost any result feels in play with this one, and so for the simple reason that I don’t feel comfortable backing either team I will take the points.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Seahawks @ Vikings (-0.5)

This is another tough game for me to call, and I am getting no help from the line whatsoever. I can see arguments for both sides, but in the end I trust Russell Wilson more than Teddy Bridgewater in what I expect to be a really good game.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Jets @ Gaints (+1.5)

The Giants are still inconsistent, whilst the Jets have got a little healthier on offence and given that essentially both teams are at home, I think that the Jets will win this one as I believe they are the better team even if their records are not that different.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Broncos @ Chargers (+4.5)

The Broncos have a formula, whilst the Chargers are a mess despite getting a win last week that I was not expecting. The Broncos defence is still one of the best units in the game, and I expect the Chargers to struggle on both sides of the ball in this one so I think the Broncos will cover on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Chiefs @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, whilst the Raiders are going through the growing pains of having a young team that possibly still lacks a bit of talent. The Chiefs however are sensing that a playoff push is possible, and so despite being on the road in Oakland, I think they will win this one.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Eagles @ Patriots (-9.5)

Wow this is a lot of points, particularly for a banged up Patriots team, and yet I’m still torn on this one. The Eagles have given up over forty points in their last two games, losing to both the Lions and the Buccaneers. I really want to pick the Patriots to cover this one, but I’m not quite brave enough, and with a reasonable lead in the picks competition I don’t need to be taking such risks. I will kick myself if the Patriots cover, but I’m not confident they will.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Panthers @ Saints (+7.5)

This is a lot of points, but Saints defence did not improve last week, and I get the feeling that the Panthers will continue with their focussed approach this week and will cover this spread in New Orleans.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Colts @ Steelers (-6.5)

The Colts have played will with Matt Hasselbeck, but I think they are finally going to meet their match coming into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers who are still very effective at moving the ball. I think the wheels have to fall off at some point for the Colts, and it might be worth watching this game just to see if either head coach makes a final move for the worst fake punt play of the season.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Cowboys @ Washington (-3.5)

I am happy that we can finally write off the Cowboys, and Washington have quietly been an okay home team so I expect them to win this one, with them somehow still being in contention for the division.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Emergency Week 13 Pick

03 Thursday Dec 2015

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NFL, Week 13 Picks

In a bout of typical Gee planning, I was carefully working on this week’s column having prepared tonight’s pick, forgetting completely that I was out this evening, so I will catch up over the weekend, but for the record here are Dan and mine’s totals for the year and tonight’s pick.

Gee: Week 12 8-8 Overall 91-85
Dan: Week 12 6-10 Overall 84-92

Packers @ Lions (+3.5)

I’m really torn on this game as you just don’t know what version of the Packers are going to turn up, the team that so handily beat the Vikings on the road in Minnesota, or the team that lost to the Bears at home whilst they were honouring one of their greats in Brett Farve. The fact is though that the Lion beat the Packers in Green Bay three games ago, and have been in consistently good form over recent weeks and so with them getting points at home I will back them in this game.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Late Week 12 Picks

29 Sunday Nov 2015

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NFL, Week 12 Picks

One of the really horrible things about migraines is not only the initial having to retreat to a darkened room when it initially hits, but the following days of headaches and feeling dreadful. Once again I should be caught up with the games by the time I record the podcast, but hopefully I should get back to my normal writing schedule next week.

Vikings @ Falcons (-1.5)

The Vikings may have got soundly beaten last week, but with the Packers dropping their Thanksgiving game, they have every chance of taking control of the NFC North, and going against a slumping Falcons team who keep finding ways to lose I fancy their chances in Atlanta.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Bills @ Chiefs (-5.5)

The Bills have been playing well in recent weeks, and whilst I don’t expect them to beat a Chiefs team that have been on a real run, I expect them to keep it closer than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Rams @ Bengals (-8.5)

The Bengals may have lost last week’s game in Arizona against the Cardinals, but they gave a good account of themselves and I’m hopeful that they will get back to winning ways this week. The line gives me pause, but given the Rams’ issues with quarterbacks at the moment, I hope that they will cover this line. I didn’t realise that Dan’s optimism was so catching, but I am still nervous.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Raiders @ Titans (+1.5)

The Raiders are a probably a better team, but they’ve been making young team mistakes, and with them being on the road again I just thing that the Titans might well win this one.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans (late change from Dan)

Buccaneers @ Colts (-3.5)

The Buccaneers have got themselves back to 5-5 with a really good series of wins where the offence is functioning well and the defence also seems to be coming together. They may be on the road in Indianapolis, but the extra half point makes me think that the Bucs will cover, even if they don’t win this one as I’m just not sure the forty year old backup quarterback that the Colts are relying on can keep winning games.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Dolphins @ Jets (-3.5)

This is a real toss up game for me as the Jets have been struggling in recent weeks, and have some injuries, but the Dolphins are simply not that good and so I’m nervously backing the home team despite them giving away the extra half point at home.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Saints @ Texans (-2.5)

The Texans are on a bit of a run, with their defence playing really well and the tactic of just throwing the ball to DeAndre Hopkins paying off. The Saints may be coming of a bye, and have fired defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, but that is not going to necessarily improve the play of their defence and I just can’t see them winning this one on the road in Houston.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Gaints @ Washington (+2.5)

This is a big swing in points from the usual home advantage, but whilst no one seems to want to win the NFC East, the Giants have been the most consistent team in the division and I have to back them in this one against an improving Washington team that are just not quite there yet.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Chargers @ Jaguars (-4.5)

The Chargers season has been such a mess, and this week they are on the road against a Jaguars team that have finally won two in a row for the first time in years, which makes me very nervous about backing them to get a third, particularly with this many points, but I can’t bring myself to back the Chargers on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Cardinals @ 49ers (+10.5)

This is a very big line, but the Cardinals are playing great, do not let up on their opponents, and have the weapons to take on a 49ers team who look to need several offseasons to rebuild having lost so much talent in the summer, so even thought they are on the road in San Francisco, I’m backing the Cardinals to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Steelers @ Seahawks (-4.5)

I was impressed with Thomas Rawls when the Seahawks played the Bengals, and wondered if he was the better option than Lynch this season, and certainly the Seahawks offence looked more like themselves last week with Lynch out getting surgery. However, the Steelers are very much in the playoff hunt, and with the deep threat their receivers present going against a defence that is showing some chinks I think the Steelers could very well cover this line despite travelling to Seattle, but as I come to write this I can’t quite bring myself to pick them. I might regret this, but I’ll back Seattle in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Patriots @ Broncos (+3.5)

The Patriots keep rolling on, and they could very well win this one, but I can’t look past the Broncos getting this many points at home, even if I’m sure Belichick will have plans for the Broncos young quarterback.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Ravens @ Browns (-2.5)

The Ravens had everything go wrong for them last week, losing both their quarterback and starting running back, and in a season that is well and truly lost, managed to win the game when what they really need is to get the highest pick possible. The Browns are having a similarly bad season, but with Josh McCown starting I think they have enough to get a rare win at home in a Monday Night football game that doesn’t exactly set hearts racing outside of Baltimore and Cleveland.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Browns (A second late change from Dan, very suspicious)

The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

Category Archives: Uncategorized

Heroes, and the Divisional Weekend

The Start of the Offseason, and Wildcard Weekend

Week 16 Picks

Saturday Night’s Alright for Picking

F is for Fanatic, or fan.

Vikings at Cardinals, and Week 14 Picks

Thoughts on Linebackers and Safeties

What I Have Learned this Season, Packers @ Lions, and Week 13 Picks

Emergency Week 13 Pick

Late Week 12 Picks