Category Archives: Thursday Night Football

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Nine

05 Thursday Nov 2020

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It’s been a weird couple of days, and throw in the first site visit for work in months and my writing time has simply disappeared. The major news appears to still be Covid-19 with the 49ers having to close their facilities and the Packers missing multiple running backs through injury/Covid-19, but tonight’s game is still going ahead. So, as the NFL is waiting for no-one this season I guess I had better get on with Competition Thursday for week nine!

Gee:Week 8:  8 –6Overall:  57 – 63
Dan:Week 8:  7 – 7Overall:  63 – 57

Packers @ 49ers (+2.5)

This is a bit of a cheat line for us, as with the injuries and disruption to the 49ers preparation with their facility closed due to positive Covud tests the consensus line I am seeing is already up to +7 so whilst it’s always possible that the 49ers could spring a surprise, when you add both one of the best tight ends in the game in George Kittle and starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to the already extensive 49ers’ injury list it seems unlikely. I’m a little nervous about the Packers run defence going against a Kyle Shanahan co-ordinated offence but the Packers, whilst having their own injury/Covid-19 cluster at running back, have Aaron Rodgers and only need to win by a field goal to cover this line and I like that option.

Gee’s Pick:     Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Packers

Survivor Competition

Well, Dan changed his plan last week and took the Buccaneers against the Giants and won, whilst I had my third eliminating pick when the Packers had a dud against the Vikings and mainly Dalvin Cook (which in turn makes me marginally more worried about my pick above). This gives Dan a point lead as we go into week nine and Dan has gone for the Packers tonight as he doubles up on tonight’s game. I’m taking a leaf out of his book and I’m going for the Patriots at the Jets, which might be a slightly risky pick but hopefully will pay off in the long run.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 6

Week 9 Selection:

Gee:    Patriots
Dan:    Packers

Bold Prediction of the Week

I once again made two bold predictions this week, which as much anything is because I’m struggling to find them and am never sure that Dan will allow them but for week nine they are:

  1. The New York Giants will beat the Washington Football Team.
  2. The Jets will score more points against the Patriots than the Cowboys will against the Steelers.

If I manage another 50/50 week I will be very happy.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Eight

29 Thursday Oct 2020

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Well, week seven was pretty good to me as I picked up three points on Dan so I achieve my next target of getting his lead down to single digits so now I need to get within a couple of points and we’ll have a proper competition. There’s plenty of time left so let’s get to work on week eight’s competition Thursday.

Gee:Week 7:  7 – 7Overall:  49 – 57
Dan:Week 7:  4 –10Overall:  56 – 50

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

This is an odd game to pick as both teams are coming off a loss, but the Atlanta Falcons only have one win this season and the Panthers have now established themselves as a competitive franchise despite the rebuild on defence and the number of veterans who left or retired in the off-season. The consensus lines and numbers are suggesting I take the Falcons and they did run the Lions close in week seven, but right now I have a lot more faith in the Panthers and as they are ranked eight places better than the Falcons by DVOA and are at home on a Thursday night I am going to go for the Panthers as they only have to win by a field goal to cover this line. I am aware that my old maxim of always back the home team on a Thursday night unless there was a really good reason to didn’t hold up, but I have a lot more faith in the coaching of the Panthers so that is where I am putting my faith.

Gee’s Pick:     Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Panthers

Survivor Competition

We held serve last week with the strategy of picking against the Jets maintaining a 100% record, and there is little to suggest that will change this week with them taking on the Chiefs, but having lost with the Chiefs against the Raiders earlier this season I have to look. somewhere else in week eight. Looking at the matchups and the teams I have left I think my best option is to select the Packers hosting the Vikings and just hope I don’t’ get any divisional weirdness. Dan has gone in a different direction grabbing the Buccaneers visiting the Giants, which certainly makes sense as a pick.

Current Score

Gee: 5
Dan: 5

Week 8 Selection:

Gee:    Packers
Dan:    Buccaneers

Bold Prediction of the Week

So Dan allowed both of my bold predictions on the podcast this week  in a triumph of doing some preparation ahead of recording, but also ensuring I have to keep doing something I fundamentally disagree with.

My first prediction was the Tua Tagovailoa will have more passing yards against the Rams than fellow rookie quarterback Justin Herbert will against the Broncos.

Secondly, the Bills will score more points this week against the Patriots than they did against the Jets in week seven.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week 5

08 Thursday Oct 2020

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I had a terrible week four picking games and have yet to record a positive score and having fallen 9 points behind Dan so I’m beginning to wonder if I need to completely overhaul my process or be even more trusting of the numbers, and this game is doing nothing to help me make up my mind.

Gee:Week 4:  4 – 11Overall:   28 – 35
Dan:Week 4:  9 – 6Overall:   37 – 26

Buccaneers @ Bears (+5.5)

I am really looking forward to watching this game as I haven’t seen the Bucs since their underwhelming opening game against the Saints, or the Bears at all, but I absolutely hate this line which sits right that awkward zone between points around a field goal win and a touchdown win. Given the consensus number I’m getting an advantage for the Bears from this line, and a fairly sizeable one at that, but the Bucs have won three straight, are the best team by overall DVOA, have the second ranked defence and Tom Brady. I don’t trust the Bears offence as they shuffle quarterbacks and even with tight end OJ Howard going down I feel like the Bucs have too many players that can hurt the Bears defence. This might be the wrong move right now, but given how previous methods have failed me I’m trusting my gut on this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Survivor Competition

Well we are finally scoring some points and I’ve managed to maintain my slender advantage, but the combination of games and who we’ve already picked is making this a tricky week or at least that’s how it feels to me. Dan is rolling with his plan to pick against the Jets and hoping the Cardinals break their two-game losing streak whilst I’m finding it really hard to find a team that convinces me. There’s a couple of options, but given I don’t like this week I’m going to throw in one of the better teams and hope it doesn’t bite me later in the season.

Current Score

Gee: 3
Dan: 2

Week 5 Selection:

Gee:     Chiefs
Dan:    Cardinals

Bold Prediction of the Week

Sorry all, but with Dan on holiday and podcast taking a week off I’m not doing something I don’t like without the evil producer pointing me in that direction.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Four

01 Thursday Oct 2020

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I am trying not to push the panic button, but it seems like Dan has inherited his dad’s picking pin this season as he has now opened up a four point lead as I have consistently gone 8-8 through three weeks. I am trying to incrementally adjust my process and I think there are lessons to be learned, but if I don’t improve soon it is going to be very hard to catch Dan, although there is a potential for the pair of us to have a terrible week at any moment.

I have to trust the process and hope that in this marathon season I can turn things around at some point.

Gee:Week 3:  8 – 8Overall:  24 – 24
Dan:Week 3:  11 – 5Overall:  28 – 20

Broncos @ Jets (+2.5)

Dan and I were talking on the podcast about my interest in all games in the NFL, and I will say that whilst the Jets hosting the Broncos is not the most enticing matchup, I am genuinely interested to see what is going on with both teams. The Jets have been in trouble for a while now and it seems Adam Gase is not going to be able to turn that around whilst the Broncos are floundering with injuries in Vic Fangio’s second season so there is not much that we do not know for certain.

The interesting thing for me is that there is a very clear play according to the numbers I use for picking games as both have the Jets giving points and yet I am getting points at home so given what I have written at the start about trusting the process, I’m going to back the Jets.

Dan is never going to let me hear the end of this if I am wrong…

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Survivor Competition

For the first time both Dan and I scored points in week three and it appears that we are beginning to follow a similar method for picking teams as we are both going for the Rams beating the Giants this week.

Current Score

Gee: 2
Dan: 1

Week 4 Selection:

Gee:     Rams
Dan:    Rams

Bold Prediction of the Week

Dan is still insisting on making me do this, even after my prediction about the Falcons failed thanks to a fourth quarter Bears comeback powered by Nick Foles.

A scan through the week four games whilst recording the podcast led me to suggest the Lions beating the Saints, which truthfully I’m not sure where it came from other than Dan is forcing me to do the segment because he knows I hate doing it. There is a scenario where this could happen as the Lions are at home and we don’t know the status of Michael Thomas (though he is back in practice) so we shall have to see how things go but I am not exactly confident…

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week 3

24 Thursday Sep 2020

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Dan maintained his lead in the picks competition as we both went 8-8, but I did managed to get our first survivor pick right so I’ve gone a point ahead on that.

Dan is also making me make a bold prediction of the week, which so far has resulted in half a point in the first week for Rosen not being on the Dolphins roster, but it wasn’t a trade as I thought as Rosen was cut and is now signed to the Bucs practise squad. Last week I predicted the Rams would defeat the Eagles to send them to 0-2 and I was correct. If Dan is going to keep making me do this (and he is) then I guess I’d better keep track of them here so this week’s is down the bottom. I’ve also predicted that Mike Zimmer will fire another offensive coordinator this season, but I concede that’s a bit speculative.

Gee:Week 2:  8 – 8Overall:   16 – 16
Dan:Week 2:  8 – 8Overall:   17 – 15

Dolphins @ Jaguars (-2.5)

Last week Dan thought he jinxed the Bengals by making them his survivor pick, but we both thought the Bengals would at least cover the points, which they only just managed to do. However, this week Dan is reverting to picking the Dolphins, and I wonder if this is either a good move on his part because he’s been watching them closely, or if he’s letting his loyalties cloud his judgement. As much as the DVOA numbers could be off with the small sample size we have so far, the Jaguars are ranked nineteen place higher by DVOA than the Dolphins and if I’m getting a line that is half a point better than the consensus line of -3 that I’m seeing, then I’m picking the home team on Thursday night.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Survivor Competition

So one of us finally got off the mark in terms of scoring, but it’s hardly much to celebrate and poor Dan has been eliminated twice already. I like his pick of the Steelers this weekend, the Texans offence and defence doesn’t look as potent as it has in recent years, but it’s not a option available to me and I would be concerned about a desperate 0-2 team with a quarterback as good as Deshaun Watson being able to spring a surprise. I’m a little bit nervous about my own selection, but given the Broncos will be starting Jeff Driskel at quarterback against Tom Brady I’m backing the Bucs to build on last week’s win. I just hope we don’t both look foolish next week.

Current Score

Gee: 1
Dan: 0

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:     Steelers
Dan:    Buccaneers

Bold Prediction of the Week

This week’s bold prediction is that the Atlanta Falcons will find a way to finally win a game and defeat the 2-0 Chicago bears.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week Two

17 Thursday Sep 2020

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It feels like week two has come round very quickly, and I’m hoping that I can peg back Dan who taken a single point lead after one week. We also both got off to winning starts in the dynasty league, although Dan did live up to being the more experienced fantasy player by having the highest total in the entire league for week one.

Gee:Week 1:  8 – 8Overall:  8 – 8
Dan:Week 1:  8 – 8Overall:  9 – 7

Bengals @ Browns (-5.5)

The Thursday night game sees the battle for Ohio series continue as the Bengals look to build from their second half of last week against a Browns team who will be desperate to put their putrid loss the Ravens behind them. I saw signs that could be improvements for the Bengals, whilst Baker Mayfield looked very similar to last season as the offence struggled and the Browns are currently ranked thirty-first by DVOA in all three phases of the game. When you combine rankings like that with getting this many points then even thought the Bengals are on the road on a Thursday night, I am picking them to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Survivor Competition

Well it appears Dan and I got too clever for our own boots last week and so in a proper survivor pool we would have be eliminated in the first week so no bonus for either of us.

We are at least going for different teams this week so hopefully one of us gets a score. Dan is underlining his confidence in his pick for today by going with the Bengals whilst I’m playing it a little safer and am taking the Steelers at home against the Broncos

Current Score

Gee: 0
Dan: 0

Week 2 Selection:

Gee:     Steelers
Dan:    Bengals

Competition Thursday Will Never be the Same Again

10 Thursday Sep 2020

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It has been a strange week in a bizarre year. The NFL pre-season has both taken forever then flown by without games and suddenly the season opens tonight.

However, sadly one of the TWF team is not here to see it as Dan’s Dad, current Picks Competition Champion and Trivia Master passed away earlier in the week.

I have already written this pre-season of the power of sports to bring people together, and not only does it do that, but at its best it can provide a scaffolding for friendships and family. Going to the football with your dad for the first time and being enthralled by the green of the grass. The connection to your cricket loving gran and a shared bond through Test Match Special that means the TMS team are never far away from making you think of her, and tears in your eyes when England win the world cup and wishing she’d been here to see it. Taking your nephew to see the Baggies and being responsible for an excited seven-year-old on your own for the first time.

Dan and I met through music. We were the rhythm section for a Leicester band no-one remembers. Making music together is another quick way to tie people together. There’s a vulnerability when creating together that quickly forms a bond if entered into in the right spirit. We stayed in touch even after the band broke up, and a shared love of the NFL led to Super Bowls spent texting each other and so when I was setting up an NFL blog it seemed natural to ask if he would picks games with me to give this blog a structure.

Clearly it worked as six years later we are still here!

About eighteen months after that, Dan came to me and said he fancied doing a podcast and The Wrong Football podcast was born. Early on (I’d have to go back and check to be sure, and I’m really not sure I want to listen to those early pods) Dan’s Dad sent a question to his son and in no time at all a segment was formed and continued, even when the podcast went on hiatus where it transferred to my Competition Thursday posts.

To be honest, a lot of the time it felt like Dan & I taking on 3D as he became known to me (Devious Dan’s Dad) and he won not one but two picks seasons as the trivia flowed on, testing us, sometimes relenting if we were scoreless for too many weeks in a row, but never easing up for long.

The picks wins are the reason that the site is currently in Vikings’ purple and gold, and at some point, I will work out what to do on here to mark his memory, but the colours are his for this season by right as well as sentiment.

Dan’s Dad wrote a great post about his own fandom, eerily titled Th… Th… That’s All Folks! that I would suggest you read for a look into NFL fandom from a different time. I’m sure I will read it again when I can bring myself to.

I am going to miss being stumped by his trivia, and the weekly emails during the season, as well as our WhatsApp group chats. Of course, Dan is going to miss his dad and Dan’s children are not going to remember their grandad. Oh, the stories we are going to tell them, so they know some of the man.

There is no easy way to turn this back to Competition Thursday.

A regular post that I will always associate with 3D.

The is the second post that has reduced me to tears this season, and we haven’t even seen a game yet, but I have a feeling it won’t be the last.

Find someone close and give them a hug is what Dan said earlier this week on twitter, and I cannot think of better sentiment.

In the meantime, as the season stops for no-one, and with a heavy heart, I will turn to the first Competition Thursday of the 2020 season.

Knowing full well that it will never be the same again.

Texans @ Chiefs (-10.5)

I have a feeling that our picks will be particularly turbulent through the start of the season as we have nothing to really guide us. The Chiefs have kept their core together whilst the ongoing issue of having a coach making personnel decisions makes me worry about the Texans. However, at this point what we have is a very big line, that is a point and a half over the consensus figure I have seen and so I’m going to make the numbers based play and look forward to what should be a really good game.

Dan is going the other way and could very well be right!

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Survivor Competition

We were already moving the trivia competition to the podcast so when the pod resumes next week so will the trivia. In its place on the blog we are going to run a friendly (I’m sure Dan and I will still desperately want to win) survivor competition. I’m running it via a spreadsheet across the season with a score to see who does best as there’s just the two of us, but we will still only be able to pick a team once for the season and unless Dan objects I think there should be a bonus point for whoever stays alive the longest.

However, this week both of us appear to have used the same logic, and picked the team playing the Jaguars. We shall see if this is a case of great minds think alike, or fools seldom differ.

Week 1 Selection:

Gee:     Colts
Dan:    Colts

AAF: Khalil Mack

06 Sunday Oct 2019

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For the first time this year I have managed to get through a complete game of coaching tape so I present to you for your pleasure the inaugural 2019 Amateur Adventures in Film post where I decided to cheer myself up after the fourth Bengals loss this season by taking a look at Khalil Mack playing the Minnesota Vikings, just in time for his revenge game against the team that drafted him and then traded him away.

The first thing that really struck me about this game is going to sound odd, as watching Mack the thing that I was most reminded of was a previous AAF post where I looked at the Cleveland Browns left tackle Joe Thomas. I know it sounds odd to compare a defensive edge player to a left tackle, but the thing that struck me about this game was not Mack’s explosive destruction to the Vikings offence so much as the control and balance he played with throughout the game. That is what brought that particular Joe Thomas game to mind, Mack was playing inside the system, setting the edge, and yes doing things that looked spectacular when the game called for it but the Bears defence is such a good unit that Mack was playing in a controlled way that seemed different to the way say a JJ Watt or Aaron Donald play when they’re wrecking a game. It is also different for an edge player as if you don’t play with discipline then you open passing/running lanes for the defence, where as for Watt/Donald their role in the defence is to cause that chaos from the interior of the line.

That said, there were plenty of moments where Mack went around the offensive tackle with speed or used speed to power to cut in and pressure Kirk Cousins. However, whilst there were longer plays left on the field by Cousins, one of the things about him getting the ball out of his hands quickly to players running shorter routes was he did limit the Bears ability to get to him, yet he still got sacked six times. Probably the biggest of Mack’s plays was at the start of the second half where he dipped under left tackle Riley Reiff’s attempted block and got a free run to Cousins and came swiping in for the strip sack. It is on plays like that when Mack can turn a game for you. In fact, the only time the Vikings moved the ball consistently was on their touchdown drive where they caught the Bears with Mack off the field and took advantage as they were running no huddle for most of the drive. It was also the only time they managed to keep the Bears’ defence off balance and they still relied on under passes to Dalvin Cook as well as Stefon Diggs making plays from the edge.

Throughout the game Mack seemed to move between the left and right edge, rushing from a three-point stance or as an outside linebacker and the Bears mixed up their fronts a lot when not playing in their base 3-4 defence. I came away very impressed, but more at the control and precise application of power. It may not have been the most explosive tape I have watched but it was a lot of fun to look at, and I have a feeling that Mack will be out to do a lot more today against his old team in London. I think those heading to the first of the London games are in the treat – I’m a little bit jealous to tell you the truth and I really don’t understand why you would trade a player of this talent away. Sometimes you have to say to hell with the value you are being offered, this is a cornerstone player, and to my mind Khalil Mack is absolutely one of those players.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week 3

19 Thursday Sep 2019

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The week two games were not kind to me in terms of picks or results, and Dan’s Dad has returned to the top of the group to take a slender lead, so here are the numbers ahead of tonight’s game and the trivia question.

Dan’s Dad:       Week    8-8                  Overall   17-15
Gee:                Week    6-10                Overall   16-16
Dan:                Week    7-9                  Overall   15-17

Titans @ Jaguars (+1.5)

Both teams are coming off close losses in week two with the Jaguars defence keeping them in the hunt during rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew’s first start but ultimately losing and the Tennessee Titans lost to the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans’ loss actually could have been by more if the Colts’ Adam Vinatieri hadn’t had a horrible kicking game and this puts me in a conundrum. The Titans got a really strong win week one and are comfortably the better team in DVOA as well as ranking better in offence and defence. The problem is that their offence is struggling, in part because Marcus Mariotta’s reluctance to throw the ball down field and they are on the road.

My Thursday night rule didn’t help me at all last week and I’m wondering if a regular starting quarterback (albeit a troubled one) is enough of an advantage when combined with a better coached team to get the two point win needed to cover. It’s that final point that swayed me, for all that the talk of trades for Jalen Ramsey and dischord on the side lines might be slightly over played – but I’m going to back the more consistent team given they only need a field goal to win.

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

Week 3 Trivia

‘Well week 2 is in the can, normal service has been restored in the Picks and the trivia braces itself for a week in which the theme that is running may be identified.

But you will remember that I asked:

On their Monday Night Football debut in 1970, the Falcons lost 20-7 to whom?

Both Gee and Dan made valid attempts and I like Gee rightly identifying that it could be an expansion team. Dan went for a ‘hunting’ option and picked the Bears. However, Gee forgets that I am well trained in the art of the double-bluff so maybe I will become Dan’s Devious Dad when I tell you that it was Don Schula’s Dolphins who actually won a Monday night game on November 30.

So that means no points on either side this week. In addition, the theme was also left on the shelf – maybe this week!

Right, onto Week 3 the question is:

Who set a Ravens record by rushing for 227 yards in a single game, in 1998?

Let’s see what that brings – again there are 2 points on offer for this one.’

Competiton Thursday: 2019 Week 2

12 Thursday Sep 2019

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It’s already week two and our second competition Thursday looms so whilst it’s way too early to read much into anything here’s the results from last week and the selection for tonight’s game.

Gee:                Week    10-6                Overall   10-6
Dan:                Week    8-8                  Overall   8-8
Dan’s Dad:       Week    9-7                  Overall   9-7

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-6.5)

It may be a failure on my part that I don’t have hard rules for the Sunday/Monday games, but my maxim on Thursday nights is to pick the home team unless there are very good reasons not to and this week does not qualify for both football and number reasons.

I see the consensus line as ± 7 depending on which team you pick so this gives me a half point advantage through a key number if I go with the home team Panthers.

Additionally, whilst the Panthers lost a close home opener to the LA Rams in week one, the Buccaneers lost by two touchdowns to the 49ers in a game where Jameis Winston threw three interceptions. I have a lot of respect for Bruce Arians and it’s only one game so you cannot say that Arians can’t improve on Winston’s historically turnover heavy play, but we saw no evidence of it so far and with two teams desperate for the win I see the Panthers coming out on top at home. I am a little concerned given the amount of respect I have for the Bucs coaching staff, but whilst there are only five places between their overall DVOA rankings (technically VOA Football Outsiders don’t adjust for opponents until after week four), the difference in the actual DVOA value is 33.8% and that puts me back on the side of the Panthers in this one.

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Week 2 Trivia

‘Well the 2019/2020 season is well and truly underway with an opening week which lit a fire in many belly’s while having others fearing a long season with little to show for all the effort. I truly understand the feeling because as a QPR soccer supporter the biggest questions are around which team will turn up and ‘who thought this manager was worth having.

What is in no doubt though is the response to the trivia quiz. Last year it was week 3 before we saw a point on the board – and this time it’s 2 points each. I asked:

Prior to arriving in St. Louis in 1960, in which city did the Cardinals play their home games?

The Answer was Chicago

Founded in 1898 in Chicago, they had a number of name changes, including Morgan Athletic Club and Racine Normal’s. It was as the Chicago Cardinals, they won two NFL championships in 1925 and 1947. Despite those two successes, losing seasons were the norm for the Cardinals, along with low attendances, as they tried to compete with the crosstown Bears. With the new AFL looking to expand into St. Louis, the NFL and the team owners agreed a deal to move the team to the Missouri city.

The bonus ‘Theme’ was not won this week but picking a theme from one sample was hardly expected. My guess is that it will be identified in Week 4 ! Let’s see.

Week 2

Right, here we go again and for Week 2 my question is:

On their Monday Night Football debut in 1970, the Falcons lost 20-7 to whom?

This one also earns 2 points for a correct answer.

Happy Hunting’