Category Archives: Gee’s Thoughts

Thoughts on Linebackers and Safeties

10 Thursday Dec 2015

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The league is heading into the final quarter with only a number of teams still in the hunt for the playoffs, although things are beginning to settle. Even so, teams that are completely out of the playoff race are still generating plenty of headlines.

The Cleveland Browns on/off dalliance with Johnny Manziel being there starting quarterback only further demonstrates the dysfunction at the top of this franchise. There are rumours flying round of conflict between those who want Manziel to start, and those for whom he has already burned his bridges with. You can see how a coaching staff that will want to be getting hired again next year if they can’t secure their jobs this year, a coaching staff who want to win games, could come into conflict with a front office group who need to know what they have in an their first round pick from two years ago and whether it is time to move on already. The problem is that with the turnover in both coaches and front office staff, it is very hard to establish a culture and go through the process it takes to turn around a franchise in trouble, and very often it seems like when a team is turned into a success, this improvement is built off the back of previous regime’s work. That said, there has been such a carousel at quarterback and staff at the Browns that it is hard to know when things will turn round.

I don’t want to pile on to the poor Browns so I’ll stop using them as an example, but I did want to pick up on a couple of things from listening to the Ross Tucker podcast this week, without turning the column into an advert, and also tie this in with tonight’s exciting game between the Cardinals and the Vikings.

On his usual Wednesday spot, regular guest Andrew Brandt was speaking about why he was a fan of Chip Kelly, and specifically talked about him as an agent of change, and that this was a rare thing in a lot of aspects in coaching. This could be seen as a curious concept given how often we hear about coaching innovations, but it seems that very often what we hear described as innovation is in fact a new wrinkle or a variation on a concept. Spread offences and pass first offences are not a new concept, but the sophistication of modern schemes is, however equally you will hear from retired players that the technique at certain positions is in decline and that this could be due to the reduced amount of time that coaches get to work with their players, particularly in the more physical drills. I don’t want to delve too far into this, but what it did get me thinking about was that if you compare the sophistication with which coaches and management are dealing with the way that a football team is constructed and plays, versus the way the media breaks down the roster then maybe we are missing a trick or two.

There was a great discussion between Ross Tucker and Greg Cosell today about tonight’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings, and the bit that grabbed me was their discussion about Deone Bucannon who Cosell described as a 210 Ibs linebacker, although he’s listed on the Cardinals’ website as safety. Now they were talking about whether this was the future of the position, these what would be traditionally undersized linebackers who could cover and cope in this age of spread defences. One of the reasons I love Cosell is he’ll always state when hasn’t seen something or can’t speak on it, but also how he’ll remained balanced, and he countered Rot Tucker’s question on how much you needed heft at the point of attack these days with the way the league is going by saying that this is not absolutely the case and let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I don’t want to get pick holes with either of them as they both know more about football than me, the podcast can be found here, but it did get me thinking.

Firstly, this weekend I am going back to look at the coaching tape from last week’s Ravens @ Dolphins game as Dan would like me to take a look at Ryan Tannehill’s performance. Next week I think I will take a look at the Cardinal’s use of Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu as I’ve been meaning to look at the Cardinals use of extra DBs in there defence for a while.

Secondly, the conversation about the future got me thinking again about linebacker groups, and something I have thought about before concerning them and the use of specialist safeties. I’ll apologise for bringing things back to the Bengals, but they are the team I watch week in and out, so in this case it easier to demonstrate what I am talking about by using them as an example in discussing the analysis of roster construction and how we talk about building a team.

In the offseason linebacker was one of the areas of concern for the Bengals as they had been banged up last season, had really struggled to defend the run when Rey Maualuga was out injured, plus Vontaze Burfict who had really come into his own was also injured and would be coming of microfracture surgery going into this season. The Bengals approach wasn’t to go out and secure a high price starting linebacker in free agency or draft a linebacker high, but neither was it to fill their roster with a middle linebacker, weak and strong side backers and then backups. Instead they drafted a linebacker, signed AJ Hawk as a free agent and resigned Maualuga. I know some were not sure about this approach, or what they did with the defensive line, but what was clever is that they built themselves a group with a set of complimentary skills and gave themselves depth. They have the ability to rotate their linebackers to have the right players for the job depending on who they are playing. Facing a team who power run up the gut, then that offence is going to have to deal with Rey Maualuga in the A gap, but if you’re facing a spread offence then you can drop into a nickel defence with the extra db, but also with a speedy linebacker like Emmanuel Lamur to help cover those linebackers who cause all those matchup problems.

For me this is an area where teams could innovate, that tweener safety/linebacker that so often was a concern in the draft, could become the new tool to help cover those nightmare tight ends and help deal with spread concepts. However, I’m wary of saying that is will become the new way of doing things. Sure you may have some lighter starters, but with this age of injury and increased difficulty for defences, maybe there is an edge to be found in crafting a linebacker group to have multiple types of player designed to rotate snaps in different amounts depending on the situation. I don’t think the days of the run stuffing middle linebacker are over, but possibly gone are the days when they are the star of the defence and play a lot of snaps, but if the balance in the NFL tips too far towards speed defences, then you can bet your bottom dollar that someone will start running power running games with success.

So I shall look forward to take a close look at the defence of the Cardinals as we go back into my picks competition with Dan, who slipped further behind again last week.

Gee:    Week 13   10-6            Overall   101-91
Dan:    Week 13   8-8              Overall   92-100

Vikings @ Cardinals (-7.5)

This is a really bad spot for the Vikings as they will be missing three starters on defence again this week, and the last thing they really need it so be travelling from Minnesota to Arizona to face a Cardinals team that is going from strength to strength. I would usually expect this to be a closer game, but with the match ups and timing favouring the Cardinals I am going to back them to cover this in a game I’m really looking forward to.

Gee ‘s Pick:   Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

What I Have Learned this Season, Packers @ Lions, and Week 13 Picks

06 Sunday Dec 2015

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We are one week away from being three quarters of the way through the season, and I know how I’m feeling so what it must be like for the players I don’t know. As I’m finally getting a chance to sit down and write I thought I would take a look at some of the things I have learned through the course of this season, particularly in the light of recent results.

It is a long season. It’s a marathon not a sprint. We are used to the coverage discussing how long the season is, but this year I have really noticed the ebb and flow that occurs during a single team’s season. The New England Patriots may have a 10-1 record, but the injuries have slowly accrued to a point where they have lost their first game, and it wouldn’t necessarily surprise me if they drop some more, at least until they can get Rob Gronkowski back on offence. But it is not just the attrition throughout the season that needs to be taken into account; coaching and progress should be looked at as well. The Kansas City Chiefs had a bad start to the season, going 1-5 before turning things around, winning five straight and getting themselves back into the playoff hunt. If the season ended today they would have a wildcard spot, and whilst the return of their corner Sean Smith has had a huge effect on their pass defence, turning them into one of the better defences in the league, they have also had to deal with the huge loss of running back Jamaal Charles, usually central to theor offence, so there is more to it than one player coming back. That said, too many injuries in one position can completely derail a team. There is no excuse for the state of the San Diego Chargers defence, but there have been so many injuries to their offensive line that you can see why they have had so many problems protecting Philip Rivers this year.

With all that said, sometimes it just takes time for a team to gel. I was as critical as anyone regarding what Bill O’Brien was doing with his quarterbacks in Houston at the start of the season. The old saying that if you have two quarterbacks then you don’t have any seemed very apt. Not only was this causing problems, but despite having some very recognisable names on the defence, including arguably the best player in football, the Texans were giving up a lot of points, giving up over forty twice as they started the season 2-5 as their defence struggled. However, once Ryan Mallet finally pushed management too far by missing the team plane down to Miami and finally got himself cut things started to settle on offence a little. More importantly though, the defence finally seemed to find its identity, allowing opposition offences less than ten points three times in the last four games as they rolled off four straight wins to get them back into the AFC South race.

One team who are very much not moving in the right direction are the Philadelphia Eagles, with one of the things that I misjudged being how their form in pre-season and would translate into the regular season. I was already aware that the teams do not game plan in the preseason, and mainly what I enjoy is getting a first look at the year’s draft class and the development of young players who may not get that much playing time during the actual season. However, everyone was take in by how well the Eagles offence was performing during the preseason, but once the regular season got under way it quickly became apparent that all was not well on that side of the ball. There is a lot of debate as to whether Chips Kelly’s up temp offence can continue to work in NFL, reliant as it is on simple concepts that are repeated frequently as it simply not possible to run that many different concepts at that pace. This in of itself doesn’t worry me so much as what appears to be Kelly’s reliance on his system. I was as impressed as anyone by Chip Kelly’s early success in Philadelphia, and this was only further enhanced after hearing an extended interview with him talking about his practice regime. However, the first problem I see with the Eagles is to do with the level of buy in that he demands of his players, which I can understand as a concept and certainly contributed to his college success. In the NFL though, as good as a coach as you are, there are thirty-one other coaches at the top of their game, with an enormous amount of time invested in preparation. You can find edges through coaching, but at the NFL level such advantages are very fine, and you can very rarely win outright by outcoaching your opponent, at some point you need to create mismatches and have enough players win their one on one matchups to win a game. Kelly though, has shipped out a surprising amount of talent from the Eagles in favour of young players who he can mould, this may work out if he is given time, but the players right now are not as good and you only have to look at the play of the offensive line now compared to when he joined to see that certain groups have taken a step back. Not only is there this to contend with, but if you are a system coach, you walk a very fine line as you need the right players to run your system perfectly and these might not always be available. Finally, if you are an innovator, particularly one with a track record in college rather than in the pros, then people will start to second guess you if things are not going well, and they certainly are not in for the Eagles in recent weeks.

I don’t think there is anything wrong with having a coaching philosophy, in fact having read Pete Carroll’s book in the offseason I think that sitting down and actually developing your philosophy into a coherent core that you can clearly articulate is of huge benefit. That said, I also think that if you introduce a degree of flexibility into your approach, being prepared to compromise to make the most of the players you have, then this can lead to more sustainable success. If you want proof of this then just take a look at the way that Bill Belichick and his staff continually scour the league and get something out of players that other teams have failed to do so.

Further proof of this maxim can be found in the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, who no one was expecting to play like this at the beginning of the year. There were concerns about their offensive line and they lost their leading receiver from last season before the season had even started. However, they are getting what they need out of the players that they have, and there is perhaps no finer microcosm of this philosophy than what they are doing with Cam Newton. There are not too many six foot five, two hundred and forty-five pound quarterbacks in the league (Newton’s size according to the Panthers’ website), with Cam’s ability to run the ball. However, they built a running game around the dual threat of him and running back Jonathan Stuart, as well as utilising his connection with tight end Greg Olson and ability to throw the deep ball. He may not show the touch that you would ideally like, but he has been undeniably effective since Ron Riviera felt Newton was healthy enough during the 2014 season to use the offensive game plan they had been keeping under wraps since the preceding preseason because of the injuries Newton had been carrying. You may still worry about the long term effects of a quarterback taking this many hits, but he is built like a football player, and still has time to work on a transition such a Ben Roethlisberger has made, into a pocket passer.

One of the things that I do think is important in the successful running of a sports club is giving a coach time, which seems to be given in increasingly smaller amounts these days across many sports, and even the NFL is starting to follow this trend. We have had several coaching changes, with two head coaching firings that have brought dubious results, and several coordinators taking the fall. However, the Lions took this a step further when their ninety year old owner declared that enough was enough, and she fired the GM along with the head of operations. This was after Jim Caldwell had fired his offensive coordinator and the coaches that had been working with their offensive line going into their trip to London. This did not produce immediate results, as I witnessed in person as the Lions were systematically taken apart by the Kansas City Chiefs at Wembley. However, following the additional firings and their bye week the Lion’s had won three straight games going into week thirteen including their first win in Green Bay since 1991 off the back of improved defence performances, but crucially an offence that seems to be coming together under new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. This all leads me quite nicely to Thursday’s return fixture in Detroit.

Packers @ Lions

There isn’t quite time for me to do a full game write up, but there was now way I could skip over the Miracle in Motown, which I am sure you will have heard of by now. If not, the game came down to a last ditch drive, where on what should have been the final play of the game, a facemask penalty called on a Lions’ defender led to one final play with no time on the clock. This has only happened in the NFL a total of five times, and two of them have been this season. In this case, the Lions rushed three and failed to stop a sixty-one yard Hail Mary pass to tight end Richard Rodgers that won the Packers the game. But it very easily could have finished a different way.

In the first quarter the Packers struggled, finding it difficult to move the ball and they ended the quarter seventeen points down. The Lions were able to move the ball, and when Aaron Rodgers threw only his fifth interception of the year, Matthew Stafford immediately answered with a seventeen yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson. However, the Packers defence stiffened in the second quarter, but the offence continued to struggle and failed to score before half-time, leading to a twenty point deficit.

The Packers slowly dragged themselves back into the game in the second half, with solid defence and a key strip of Matthew Stafford by Julius Peppers that swiftly led to a second touchdown meaning that the Lions lead was down to six by the start of the fourth quarter.

It has to be said that the Packers offence still struggled in the second half, but third string running back John Crocket added a small spark in the running game, but the most effect methods the Packers found to move the ball were screen passes/dump offs to James Starks, and passes to Richard Rodgers who finished the game with one hundred and forty-six yards from eight catches, including the game winning touchdown to seal the game.

The Packers may have got back to winning ways, but it was not in the way that they would have envisaged, and the Lions will be kicking themselves about how late they left it in the season before they found a formula that works. If the Lions can find suitable replacements for their front office, there are things that they can build on for next season unless they chose to blow things up, but we shall have to see what path they chose to take. The Packers meanwhile have kept themselves in playoff contention, but they will need to find a more stable formula if they want to make sure of getting there and leaving a mark in the post season.

And now on to the rest of this week’s picks:

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Flacons need to stop turning the ball over if they want to get back to winning ways, and they are running out of time if they want to get back into the playoff hunt given Seattle’s recent improvements. The question will be whether they are going to start this turnaround against a Buccaneers team that have definitely improved in recent weeks. The Falcons might be getting Devonta Freeman back this week, but the Bucs actually rank second in the NFL in rush defence by DVOA according to Football Outsiders, as well as being the higher ranked team in both general and weighted DVOA, which is leading me to nervously back the home team in this one.

Gee’s Pick:         Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:         Falcons

Texans @ Bills (-2.5)

The Bills have been better in recent weeks, but are still up and down, with the only unit on either team I really trust being the recently very stingy Texans’ defence, so that is where I’m picking in this one.

Gee’s Pick:         Texans
Dan’s Pick:         Texans

49ers @ Bears (-6.5)

The 49ers defence has been okay at home in recent weeks and Blaine Gabbert has at least looked like a competent NFL quarterback, but this week they are in Chicago and not San Francisco. Add the travelling across country to the fact that the Bears are progressing in John Fox’s first season and are coming off a road win in Green Bay, and I think I have to back the Bears in this one despite the points.

Gee’s Pick:         Bears
Dan’s Pick:         Bears

Bengals @ Browns (+6.5)

This feels like a trap game for me in that the Browns and Bengals games have often been close contests, with this game being in Cleveland and NFL touchdown leader Tyler Eifert likely missing the game, I could see the Bengals struggling to cover these points. However, there are still so many options for Andy Dalton that I think they will cope in this game against a Browns team who are on a short week.

Gee’s Pick:         Bengals
Dan’s Pick:         Bengals

Jaguars @ Titans (-2.5)

The Jaguars just squeaked out a win only a couple of weeks ago when they entertained the Titans, and with the injury to Allen Hearns you might be tempted to back the Titans at home in this one. I am always wary of long streaks as they have to end at some point, and it has been a very long time since the fans in Tennessee have seen their team win in person, but I can’t bring myself to pick them doing it this week with this many points.

Gee’s Pick:         Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:         Jaguars

Cardinals @ Rams (+5.5)

The Rams under Jeff Fisher have often kept their games with the better teams in the league close, and actually beat the Cardinals in Arizona earlier in the year. However, their offensive line is a mess through injury, they have very little passing game, which allows a defence to focus on bottling up Todd Gurly. The Rams defence might be very good, but the Cardinals offence has been lighting everybody up and I have a feeling they will want to get revenge as they head into St Louis.

Gee’s Pick:         Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:         Cardinals

Ravens @ Dolphins (-4.5)

I’m really torn on this game, as the Ravens have kept every game close, but it took two special teams touchdowns for them to beat the Browns last week, and they are travelling to Miami on a short week to play on the road for a second week in a row. The Dolphins have just fired their offensive coordinator as Dan Campbell was not happy with the play calling or rush/pass balance. However, the Ravens run defence is still solid and I am not sure the Dolphins truly have the passing game to take advantage of the Ravens’ defensive frailties. Almost any result feels in play with this one, and so for the simple reason that I don’t feel comfortable backing either team I will take the points.

Gee’s Pick:         Ravens
Dan’s Pick:         Dolphins

Seahawks @ Vikings (-0.5)

This is another tough game for me to call, and I am getting no help from the line whatsoever. I can see arguments for both sides, but in the end I trust Russell Wilson more than Teddy Bridgewater in what I expect to be a really good game.

Gee’s Pick:         Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:         Vikings

Jets @ Gaints (+1.5)

The Giants are still inconsistent, whilst the Jets have got a little healthier on offence and given that essentially both teams are at home, I think that the Jets will win this one as I believe they are the better team even if their records are not that different.

Gee’s Pick:         Jets
Dan’s Pick:         Jets

Broncos @ Chargers (+4.5)

The Broncos have a formula, whilst the Chargers are a mess despite getting a win last week that I was not expecting. The Broncos defence is still one of the best units in the game, and I expect the Chargers to struggle on both sides of the ball in this one so I think the Broncos will cover on the road.

Gee’s Pick:         Broncos
Dan’s Pick:         Broncos

Chiefs @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, whilst the Raiders are going through the growing pains of having a young team that possibly still lacks a bit of talent. The Chiefs however are sensing that a playoff push is possible, and so despite being on the road in Oakland, I think they will win this one.

Gee’s Pick:         Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:         Chiefs

Eagles @ Patriots (-9.5)

Wow this is a lot of points, particularly for a banged up Patriots team, and yet I’m still torn on this one. The Eagles have given up over forty points in their last two games, losing to both the Lions and the Buccaneers. I really want to pick the Patriots to cover this one, but I’m not quite brave enough, and with a reasonable lead in the picks competition I don’t need to be taking such risks. I will kick myself if the Patriots cover, but I’m not confident they will.

Gee’s Pick:         Eagles
Dan’s Pick:         Eagles

Panthers @ Saints (+7.5)

This is a lot of points, but Saints defence did not improve last week, and I get the feeling that the Panthers will continue with their focussed approach this week and will cover this spread in New Orleans.

Gee’s Pick:         Panthers
Dan’s Pick:         Panthers

Colts @ Steelers (-6.5)

The Colts have played will with Matt Hasselbeck, but I think they are finally going to meet their match coming into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers who are still very effective at moving the ball. I think the wheels have to fall off at some point for the Colts, and it might be worth watching this game just to see if either head coach makes a final move for the worst fake punt play of the season.

Gee’s Pick:         Steelers
Dan’s Pick:         Steelers

Cowboys @ Washington (-3.5)

I am happy that we can finally write off the Cowboys, and Washington have quietly been an okay home team so I expect them to win this one, with them somehow still being in contention for the division.

Gee’s Pick:         Washington
Dan’s Pick:         Washington

Emergency Week 13 Pick

03 Thursday Dec 2015

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In a bout of typical Gee planning, I was carefully working on this week’s column having prepared tonight’s pick, forgetting completely that I was out this evening, so I will catch up over the weekend, but for the record here are Dan and mine’s totals for the year and tonight’s pick.

Gee:    Week 12   8-8             Overall   91-85
Dan:    Week 12   6-10           Overall   84-92

Packers @ Lions (+3.5)

I’m really torn on this game as you just don’t know what version of the Packers are going to turn up, the team that so handily beat the Vikings on the road in Minnesota, or the team that lost to the Bears at home whilst they were honouring one of their greats in Brett Farve. The fact is though that the Lion beat the Packers in Green Bay three games ago, and have been in consistently good form over recent weeks and so with them getting points at home I will back them in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Late Week 12 Picks

29 Sunday Nov 2015

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One of the really horrible things about migraines is not only the initial having to retreat to a darkened room when it initially hits, but the following days of headaches and feeling dreadful. Once again I should be caught up with the games by the time I record the podcast, but hopefully I should get back to my normal writing schedule next week.

Vikings @ Falcons (-1.5)

The Vikings may have got soundly beaten last week, but with the Packers dropping their Thanksgiving game, they have every chance of taking control of the NFC North, and going against a slumping Falcons team who keep finding ways to lose I fancy their chances in Atlanta.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Vikings

Bills @ Chiefs (-5.5)

The Bills have been playing well in recent weeks, and whilst I don’t expect them to beat a Chiefs team that have been on a real run, I expect them to keep it closer than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:    Bills

Rams @ Bengals (-8.5)

The Bengals may have lost last week’s game in Arizona against the Cardinals, but they gave a good account of themselves and I’m hopeful that they will get back to winning ways this week. The line gives me pause, but given the Rams’ issues with quarterbacks at the moment, I hope that they will cover this line. I didn’t realise that Dan’s optimism was so catching, but I am still nervous.

Gee’s Pick:    Bengals
Dan’s Pick:    Bengals

Raiders @ Titans (+1.5)

The Raiders are a probably a better team, but they’ve been making young team mistakes, and with them being on the road again I just thing that the Titans might well win this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Titans
Dan’s Pick:   Titans (late change from Dan)

Buccaneers @ Colts (-3.5)

The Buccaneers have got themselves back to 5-5 with a really good series of wins where the offence is functioning well and the defence also seems to be coming together. They may be on the road in Indianapolis, but the extra half point makes me think that the Bucs will cover, even if they don’t win this one as I’m just not sure the forty year old backup quarterback that the Colts are relying on can keep winning games.

Gee’s Pick:    Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:    Buccaneers

Dolphins @ Jets (-3.5)

This is a real toss up game for me as the Jets have been struggling in recent weeks, and have some injuries, but the Dolphins are simply not that good and so I’m nervously backing the home team despite them giving away the extra half point at home.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Saints @ Texans (-2.5)

The Texans are on a bit of a run, with their defence playing really well and the tactic of just throwing the ball to DeAndre Hopkins paying off. The Saints may be coming of a bye, and have fired defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, but that is not going to necessarily improve the play of their defence and I just can’t see them winning this one on the road in Houston.

Gee’s Pick:    Texans
Dan’s Pick:    Texans

Gaints @ Washington (+2.5)

This is a big swing in points from the usual home advantage, but whilst no one seems to want to win the NFC East, the Giants have been the most consistent team in the division and I have to back them in this one against an improving Washington team that are just not quite there yet.

Gee’s Pick:    Giants
Dan’s Pick:   Giants

Chargers @ Jaguars (-4.5)

The Chargers season has been such a mess, and this week they are on the road against a Jaguars team that have finally won two in a row for the first time in years, which makes me very nervous about backing them to get a third, particularly with this many points, but I can’t bring myself to back the Chargers on the road.

Gee’s Pick:    Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:    Jaguars

Cardinals @ 49ers (+10.5)

This is a very big line, but the Cardinals are playing great, do not let up on their opponents, and have the weapons to take on a 49ers team who look to need several offseasons to rebuild having lost so much talent in the summer, so even thought they are on the road in San Francisco, I’m backing the Cardinals to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

Steelers @ Seahawks (-4.5)

I was impressed with Thomas Rawls when the Seahawks played the Bengals, and wondered if he was the better option than Lynch this season, and certainly the Seahawks offence looked more like themselves last week with Lynch out getting surgery. However, the Steelers are very much in the playoff hunt, and with the deep threat their receivers present going against a defence that is showing some chinks I think the Steelers could very well cover this line despite travelling to Seattle, but as I come to write this I can’t quite bring myself to pick them. I might regret this, but I’ll back Seattle in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:    Steelers

Patriots @ Broncos (+3.5)

The Patriots keep rolling on, and they could very well win this one, but I can’t look past the Broncos getting this many points at home, even if I’m sure Belichick will have plans for the Broncos young quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:    Broncos
Dan’s Pick:    Patriots

Ravens @ Browns (-2.5)

The Ravens had everything go wrong for them last week, losing both their quarterback and starting running back, and in a season that is well and truly lost, managed to win the game when what they really need is to get the highest pick possible. The Browns are having a similarly bad season, but with Josh McCown starting I think they have enough to get a rare win at home in a Monday Night football game that doesn’t exactly set hearts racing outside of Baltimore and Cleveland.

Gee’s Pick:    Browns
Dan’s Pick:    Browns (A second late change from Dan, very suspicious)

Thanksgiving Picks 2015

26 Thursday Nov 2015

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It’s been another one of those weeks, but expect a bumper Thanksgiving round up tomorrow and here are our picks tonight as Dan attempts to claw back some of the ground he gave up last week.

Gee:    Week 11   8-6             Overall   83-77
Dan:    Week 11   6–8           Overall   78-82

Eagles @ Lions (+0.5)

The Eagles season continues its helter-skelter journey with the defence taking a turn at having significant problem s as they were soundly beaten by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45-17 at home. Now they go on the road in a short week to Detroit to face a team that seems to have found something. The Lions have two straight wins off the back of improved defensive performances, and I think they may well prevail against the Eagles and their backup quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:     Lions

Panthers @ Cowboys (+0.5)

The Cowboys got a win off the return of Tony Romo, but I am not convinced that they are going to make the late playoff push that their fans seem to expect. That said, somehow they are only two games back off the lead of the NFC East, and will be desperate to win this game, but I don’t think they have enough options on offence to overcome the excellent Panthers defence. I don’t think the Panthers will go undefeated, and it’s possible this could be the game to break the streak, but I don’t think so.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Panthers

Bears @ Packers (-9.5)

This is a lot of points, even if the Packers did find themselves again last week. However, whilst I was initially tempted by the Bears, they have a lot of injuries to their skill players and given that the Packers just beat the Vikings by seventeen points in Minnesota, I think they will cover this at home in Green Bay. Particularly on the day when they are honouring their legendary quarterback Brett Farve

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Bears

 

Week 11 Picks

22 Sunday Nov 2015

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It’s one of those weekends where time and location are against me, so I will go over the Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars game and the problem with the Packers receivers getting open on next week’s pod. For now I’ve just got time to go through the rest of our picks for this week.

Colts @ Falcons (-6.5)

Both of these teams are coming off a bye, but whilst the Colts have been up and down all season, I think having a definitively healthy quarterback might help them, and whilst they may not win this game, given the recent form of the Falcons I am not comfortable picking them to win by a clear seven points.

Gee’s Pick:    Colts
Dan’s Pick:    Colts

Broncos @ Bears (-1.5)

The Broncos travel to Chicago with a new starting quarterback, and given how bad Peyton Manning has been this season, it’s just possible that things might work a little better on offence, or at least more like how Gary Kubiak wants to runs it. The Bears have been playing well over recent weeks, but the Broncos will be desperate to get their season back on track and if I am getting points for a seven and two team then I’m going to take them.

Gee’s Pick:    Broncos
Dan’s Pick:    Bears

Cowboys @ Dolphins (+0.5)

This is a straight up who wins pick, which really doesn’t help when picking a game involving a Cowboys team that have lost seven straight games who may be getting Tony Romo back against a Dolphins team who have been up and down, plus slightly lucky to pick up a win against the Eagles last week. I’m basically picking the home team, as I really don’t know who is going to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Raiders @ Lions (+1.5)

The Lions got there win last week, but were a bit lucky and I’m not sure they really have enough defence to cope with the Raiders. However, the defence of the Raiders has been a real problem over the last couple of weeks and with them travelling across to Detroit from Oakland I’m going to back the home team getting points, and will feel nervous about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Lions
Dan’s Pick:    Ravens

Rams @ Ravens (-1.5)

The Rams have sat Nick Foles who has not been playing well this season, and has repeatedly missed the designed deep throws off play action that the Rams offence is predicated on. Whether the move to Case Keenum gives them enough to exploit the Raven’s problems in the secondary I don’t know, but the Rams are a slightly better team and as I’m getting points as well then I’ll back them to win in Baltimore.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    Rams

Jets @ Texans (+2.5)

I thought the Texans defence played really well last week, but I don’t know if that effort is sustainable and they continue to have real problems on offence, including a backup quarterback starting for them this week. The Jets may have struggled in recent weeks, but I think they will have too much for the Texans in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Buccaneers @ Eagles (-5.5)

The Eagles have been up and down all seasons, and with Mark Sanchez at quarterback I wonder how they will go on offence, but their defence is really good and has been all season. Part of me wants to pick the Buccaneers to keep this close, but I don’t trust their defence, and with them being on the road I’m going to nervously back the Eagles to cover the spread in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Eagles
Dan’s Pick:    Eagles

Washington @ Panthers (-7.5)

Washington got a really good win last week, but I can’t see them tripping up this Panthers team that just keeps rolling. It’s a lot of points, but I don’t see Washington moving the ball on the Panthers’ defence, and so I’m backing them to cover the spread.

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Panthers

Chiefs @ Chargers (+2.5)

The Chiefs are on a bit of a roll, whilst the Chargers have just been so injured. I don’t think that Philip Rivers has enough weapons to take on a Chief’s defence and they’ve been bad on defence for most of the year, so I fancy the Chiefs to cover this spread on the road in San Diego

Gee’s Pick:    Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:    Chiefs

Packers @ Vikings (-0.5)

Not only have I picked against Mike Zimmer for two weeks and regretted it, but they also have the defence to keep a struggling Packers offence in check. I’m fed up of picking against a head coach that I really like, and he seems to have the Vikings playing really well.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Packers

49ers @ Seahawks (-12.5)

I think the Seahawks will win this game, but given how bad their offensive line has been, and therefore how disappointing their offence have been, I’m not going to back them to win by thirteen points despite the big win they had in San Francisco earlier in the season.

Gee’s Pick:    49ers
Dan’s Pick:    49ers

Bengals @ Cardinals (-3.5)

I am both really nervous about this game, and finding it hard to pick. I am hoping that the Bengals’ performance on Monday night was just a blip, but the Cardinals are a really good team. I am hoping it will be a close one, and getting that extra half point has just pushed me into keeping faith with the Bengals, but it really could go in any direction in Arizona with several Cardinals having ties back to the Bengals so I’m sure they will be desperate to get the win.

Gee’s Pick:    Bengals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

Bills @ Patriots (-7.5)

I am fairly confident that the Patriots will find a way to win this game, but given how injured they are, and the recent improvement in the Bill’s play I don’t see them winning by eight points, and it is possible that Rex Ryan will get the win he so desperately wants.

Gee’s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:    Bills

Salute to the Unheralded and Thursday Night Pick

19 Thursday Nov 2015

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With week ten in the books we can say goodbye to another team’s unbeaten record, and already my assessment of who might be in the scrap for playoff places from last week is looking outdated. There are all kinds of themes presenting themselves such as the number of penalties being called, the number of injuries this year, what actually constitutes a catch these days, but having touched upon it whilst recording the podcast with Dan yesterday I want to look somewhere else.

We were discussing the Pro Bowl voting being open, and Dan fell into the classic trap of listing the glamour positions, and somehow missed out tight ends and offensive linemen whilst discussing offence before I got to tackle defensive players (in fairness, due to time constraints I didn’t get a chance to look at safeties or special teams either). Now the Pro Bowl is given a lot of focus when discussing a player careers, but there is also a lot of name recognition that influences the voting. This shouldn’t be that surprising given the popularity of not only football, but fantasy football with its heavy emphasis on offensive skill players. However, football is a team sport that relies on eleven players performing a very specific set of synchronised tasks on each snap of the ball that all interact to achieve the desired task, be it offence, defence, or special teams.

In my brief sojourn into American football training, it quickly became apparent how reliant you are on those around you carrying out their jobs whilst you have to focus on yours. The helmets restrict your peripheral vision so you can’t second guess what is happening around you, and if you try then it is too late anyway. Football is a game of power, speed, and split second timing; and that’s at the amateur level. Those of us who write about the NFL may talk about bad players, but even those at the bottom of the depth chart are likely to have physical gifts we can only dream of. However, even the most talented of the high profile players aren’t going to get very far if their colleagues are struggling. If you want proof of this, look at the performance of Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson, who is coming into the prime of his career, and whose play is demonstrably being affected by the play of the offensive line in front on him. Right now he is too quick to pull the ball down and run when being rushed, but this is hardly a surprise given that he is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL so far this season, and imagine how bad those numbers could be if there was a less mobile quarterback behind that line.

So whilst I understand the focus on the spectacular plays, and the popularity that the fantasy game has brought to the league, there are an awful lot of players who are critical to your team’s successes who are not getting the love they deserve. The run stuffing defensive tackle who occupies two linemen so the star linebacker can make the tackle, the punt gunner who gets down the field fast enough to force a fair catch, the long snapper who only gets noticed when he fails to deliver a perfect ball to the punter or holder, or the blocking tight end who rarely catches a ball but is likely a huge part of your team’s running attack or ability to protect the quarterback. The sad fact is though, that as crucial as these players are, there are not the stats to always accurately explain what is going on. Whilst the headlines are over losing Dion Lewis, and Julian Edelman, the Patriots have also lost three tackles this season and yet somehow they are still finding ways to win. I don’t think either the Patriots or the Panthers are going unbeaten this season, it is just too hard and the margin for error is so small, but you wouldn’t bet against the Patriots going deep into the playoffs this season.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at tonight’s game the week after Dan claws back two games on me.

Gee:    Week 10   6-8             Overall   75-72
Dan:    Week 10   8-6             Overall   72-74

Titans @ Jaguars (-2.5)

We have the Tennessee Blues taking on the Jacksonville Golds in this week’s colour rush Thursday night game, which I am really looking forward to seeing for the two teams playing rather than the kits. I am curious to see what Mike Mularkey is doing with the Titans, and to get another look at Marcus Mariota. The Jaguars offence is coming together nicely, although they as a team need to cut out the mistakes, but I really like the two Allens in receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. I will back the Jaguars in this one as they seem to be gaining some momentum even if their last minute win against the Ravens was lucky.

Gee’s Pick:     Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:    Jaguars

Bills at Jets and Week 10 Picks

14 Saturday Nov 2015

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It feels slightly strange to be sitting down to write this today, but whilst my thoughts are with the people of Paris, the people of Beirut, the refugees fleeing those who falsely claim these attacks are in the name of Islam, one of the ways we counter the actions of those who perpetrated those acts is by carrying on as normally as we can. They want us to be scared, and feel alien from one another, but whilst I feel heartbroken, I choose to write as normal and so on to football.

I’ll start with a confession, I quite like the single colour kits, although I suspect this will depend on what they come up with for each team going forward. The game was also a good one between two good defences that came down to the end of the fourth quarter.

The Bills offence struggled against the Jets’s blitzes, giving up four sacks as Muhammad Wilkerson frequently got through their line and garnered two sacks. Things could have been even worse but for Tyrod Taylor’s running ability, although there was at least one occasion when he ran out of bounds for a loss when he could have simply thrown the ball away. Still he was able hit enough plays to get a touchdown, as the Bills used screen plays and LeSean McCoy to move the ball. The only really good offensive display from either side was McCoy who repeatedly ran for ten yards as his burst and ability to change direction enabled him to pick a path through a Jets defence that was determined to protect their injured secondary through aggressive play. McCoy finished the game with an impressive one hundred and twelve yards rushing off just nineteen carries as well as catching five balls for forty-seven yards. The defences are what won the day in this game, and the Jets made life very difficult for the Bills, particularly after the Jets finally added to their first quarter field goal with a touchdown that brought the home crowd into the game, and the Bills didn’t score another point in the game.

The Jets struggled on offence as much as the Bills, outgaining them by thirty-eight yards but Ryan Fitzpatrick also threw two interceptions to go with his two touchdowns. They managed to get over one hundred yards rushing, but clearly weren’t confident in their ability to run consistently against the Bills defence as they often passed on first/second down. There were times where Chris Ivory looked like the back who started the season so strong, but he also looked tired at times, and it didn’t help that Stevan Ridley finished the game losing one yard on his three carries. However, as well as the Bills did stifling the Jets offence and getting the two interceptions, they really could have lost this game. Several times the Jets aggressively went for it on fourth down, and one particularly impressive sequence had Fitzpatrick run a quarterback sneak for six yards on third and ten before going for it on fourth down and getting the yards he needed with a pass. Then the Jets defence not only stopped the Bills, but their special teams blocked a punt to get the ball on the Bills own thirteen yard line. However, the Jets couldn’t get the ball in the end zone, with a lofted pass on fourth down floating past Kellen Davis before he could find the ball in the air.

This was really good game to watch if you like defensive battles, but it was really won in the second quarter. Firstly Ryan Fitzpatrick was intercepted when he threw a dangerous ball into bracketed coverage that Brandon Marshall couldn’t hold onto as he tried to catch it coming over the corner, and it popped up into the hands of Corey Graham. The Bill could only get a field goal from the resulting drive, but on the following kick off they forced Devlin Smith to fumble on the return and Duke Williams ran the ball in for a touchdown. After this ten point swing they were able to build enough of a lead to withstand the Jets late rally, but they really could have lost it.

And having failed in the first game, it’s time to move onto the rest of the week’s picks.

Bears @ Rams (-7.5)

The Rams are coming along nicely with a fearsome defence and Todd Gurley giving them something they can focus on to make the offence run. The problem is that Nick Foles has not been that impressive this season, but the addition of Wes Welker to give him help on third down in the slot may well help if he can still play. That said, I’m going to worry about Welker every time he is hit and I just hope he doesn’t get another concussion. However, despite all their progress, I’m not sure they should be giving this many points to a Bears team who have been within three points of every team they have played since they were shut out in week three. The defence seems to be coming together, whilst Jay Cutler is throwing fewer interceptions and seems to have something going with offensive coordinator Adam Gase. I don’t think they will win this game, but it will be closer that eight points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Browns @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Steelers’ defence is going to have to keep playing as well as they have to keep the team in playoff contention. It’s hard to believe that Roethlisberger managed to only come away with a foot sprain from last week’s game as his foot really looked like it could have been badly hurt. They have so far managed to keep themselves in touch of the playoff race, and the Browns are not the worst team to be facing. Their run defence has not been good, and you could see a healthy dose of DeAngelo Williams in this one. I don’t see the Browns having enough offence to compete in this game, so I’m backing the Steelers to beat this spread.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Cowboys @ Buccanneers (-1.5)

The Cowboys go into Tampa with a six game losing streak, and you could say they’re due a win, equally you could say that there isn’t anything to indicate they are going to turn this round. However, Jameis Winston hasn’t thrown an interception in the last four games, and they might stand a chance in this one. I’m not fully sure of my reasoning, but I just have a feeling that the Bucs are going to get the win in this one at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Lions @ Packers (-11.5)

The Packers are coming off two losses, but they are a different team at Lambeau Field than they are on the road and the Lions are just the team for them to get themselves back on track. I don’t know if there will be a reaction from the Lions to the recent spate of firings, but I don’t see them doing anything in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Panthers @ Titans (+4.5)

The Titans are coming off their second win of the season having fired Ken Wisenhunt and handed the team to Mike Mularkey, but the Saints defence definitely lent a hand. However, they were glad to have rookie quarterback Marcus Martiota who has looked like he is going to be a very good quarterback. The problem for them this week is that they are welcoming an unbeaten Panthers team whose defence has been playing really well. Not only that, but whilst the Titan’s defence is ranked in the top ten by DVOA, they are a relatively lowly twenty-third in run defence as they welcome a Panthers team who really run the ball well.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Dolphins @ Eagles (-6.5)

The points do give me a little pause, but the Dolphins are too far off the pace whilst the Eagles are beginning to come together. The Eagles have run for over one hundred and fifty yards in the last four games and the Dolphins are another team with a bad run defence. Equally the Eagles defence has been good all year, and so I think they will have enough in this one. Sorry Dan.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Saints @ Washington (+0.5)

The Saints offence has been good over the last few weeks, but their defence has been horrible. This should give Washington a chance in this game, but I can’t quite bring myself to pick them to win.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Jaguars @ Ravens (-5.5)

I’m really not sure what the Ravens have done to be getting this many points even before they lost Steve Smiths. The Jaguars have been good enough to just lose this season, but Blake Bortles has the receivers to take advantage of the Ravens secondary so whilst I may regret this, I’m backing the Jaguars for a second week in a row.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Vikings @ Raiders (-2.5)

The Raiders have played really well on offence this season, but their defence scares me. However, whilst I said I should not have picked against Mike Zimmer last week, I think I am going to do it again, because whilst the defence looked really good, Amari Cooper has been special and I just think the travelling Vikings may lose out with Bridgewater trying to come back from his concussion last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Chiefs @ Broncos (-6.5)

The Broncos need to get back to running the ball and they may well do that this week, but the Chiefs have the defence to cause them real problems. I’m not sure the Chiefs will win this one, but I think they’ll keep it closer than seven points.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Patriots @ Giants (+7.5)

The Giants have been good on offence, but their defence has been struggling in recent weeks and are likely to be missing Prince Amukamara who has a torn pectoral muscle. The Giants have had success against the Patriots in recent seasons but this defence is not the one that beat them, and I see the Patriots continuing their great run even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-3.5)

The Cardinals are a really good team at home, but I wonder if they have enough to win this one on the road. Their offence has been very good this season, but they’ve had a tendency to turn the ball over with Bruce Arians aggressive approach and I’m not sure that this is going to work for them against the Seahawks in Seattle. Their defence will have more than enough to contain the Seahawks offence, but I think they will struggle overall. This is my pick of this week’s game, and I think the Seahawks will be desperate to win it to keep themselves in the playoff hunt.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Texans @ Bengals (-10.5)

I’m not very comfortable about this pick, but the Texans have really struggled this season so whilst I am taking a leaf out of Dan’s big book of optimism, I don’t have to feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Midseason Review

13 Friday Nov 2015

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With week nine in the books we are now in a position where all NFL teams have played at least eight games and so can safely say we are half-way through the season, which is frankly somewhat terrifying. I am continuing the development of what I write and when, particularly having introduced recording a podcast to my schedule so I will be moving the majority of the week’s picks to the write up of the Thursday night game in an attempt to spread my efforts more equally, but this might not help me this week as I thought I would take a look at each division’s season so far.

AFC North

Team W L T Form
Bengals 8 0 0 W8
Steelers 5 4 0 W1
Ravens 2 6 0 W1
Browns 2 7 0 L4

I am going to work round the points of a compass, but this does allow me to start with the Bengals who are one of three unbeaten teams in the NFL and look to be in a strong position to win the division, but as Marvin Lewis said, they’ve given themselves an opportunity yet it won’t mean a thing if they go 2-6 the rest of the way. If the Bengals have been the very embodiment of a balanced and healthy roster, the Steelers have done nothing but fight injuries on offence. They have barely had their lead trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Anotio healthy at the same time, with Bell now gone for the season and Roethlisberger injured again with a sprained foot, it’s up to their young improved defence to keep them in the wildcard hunt, which they most assuredly are.

The Ravens and Browns are surprisingly far off the pace given that this is usually a very competitive division. Given how they are run it is perhaps not surprising that the Browns appear to have taken a step back from last years and are so far off the pace, but the Ravens woes are unexpected but their problems in the secondary and at wide receiver has really hampered them and it looks like they could be picking unusually high in next year’s draft.

NFC North

Team W L T Form
Packers 6 2 0 L2
Vikings 6 2 0 W4
BEARS 3 5 0 W1
LIONS 1 7 0 L2

The Packers have lost two straight games, but these were against teams that were unbeaten at the time, so whilst there is continued concern about the way their offence is functioning, and the problems on the defence in the last game, it is not time to panic yet. The Vikings almost seem to have snuck into their 6-2 record, but have done it off the back of a sure tackling defence and enough offence to get them wins. The play of rookie receiver Stefon Diggs has certainly helped in recent weeks, and whilst they have a nasty run in that includes playing the Packers twice, they at least are in position to compete to make the playoffs.

The Bears looked awful at the start of the season, but they have steadily improved and have been competitive in every game since their 0-3 start, going 3-2 in the last five games. They are out of the playoff picture, but at least are making progress as opposed to the putrid Lions who have gone 1-7 with their only win coming against the Bears in week 6. They lost talent in the offseason; the offence has regressed, whilst the defence doesn’t seem to have recovered from the losses to their defensive line. The injury to DeAndre Levy, one of the game’s best coverage linebackers, has not helped either. They have been firings galore with first the offensive coordinator and the coaches involved with the offensive line going before the London game, and the team president and general manager being fired after their horrid loss to the Chiefs. Their owner, ninety year old Martha Ford has addressed the team this week after her firing of the senior personnel and laid out her expectations for the rest of the season so it looks like there will be plenty to keep an eye on over the coming months in Detroit.

AFC East

Team W L T Form
Patriots 8 0 0 W8
Jets 5 3 0 W1
Bills 4 4 0 W1
Dolphins 3 5 0 L2

This division was meant to be up for grabs this season, but that changed when Tom Brady’s suspension was overturned and the Patriots have simply gone from strength to strength. The defensive changes have worked, whilst Brady and the offence continue to function well despite several injuries to the offensive line, although they have now lost running back Dion Lewis for the season to an ACL tear as well. They will be looking at pushing for the Super Bowl once more and right now it is hard to bet against them. The Jets and Bill are both still in the hunt for a wildcard place, but the Jets’ defence that was so strong earlier in the season has regressed against the pass in recent weeks, whilst the Bills have been up and down all season. I’m looking forward to seeing them face each other this Thursday in a game the Bills probably can’t afford to lose.

The Dolphins have had a season of turmoil that started with a win against Washington before losing three games in a row. Joe Philbin was let go after the London loss and the new inexperienced head coach Dan Campbell got immediate results with his focus on physicality and emphasising the run. Unfortunately, his two wins were against AFC South opposition and the problems with the offensive line and secondary were a concern before they lost their start defensive end Cameron Wake for the year to injury. There are structural problems with the roster that need to be addressed and the rest of the season will be about whether Campbell can put together a strong enough argument to keep this new job.

NFC East

Team W L T Form
Giants 5 4 0 W1
Eagles 4 4 0 W1
Washington 3 5 0 L1
Cowboys 2 6 0 L6

The NFC East is a division where no one has really established themselves as the favourites to win, although it does look like it is going to come down to either the Giants or the Eagles. The Giants have been fairly good on offence, but not spectacular, whilst their defence has played tough in patches but has also been horrible at times. They are ranked second in special teams, but they will need to improve if they are going to make or do anything in the playoffs. The Eagles had a tough start to the season as their high flying offence that looked so good in preseason stumbled the moment they face a team that were actually game planning for them. The offence struggled to establish the run and Sam Bradford did not look comfortable, but they have now run for over 150 yards in the last four games so things are coming round. Their defence however has been rock solid, and whilst they will miss rookie linebacker Jordan Hicks who was outstanding before he tore a pectoral muscle and is now out for the year, they have some depth to keep things going. In another division they might already be out the running, but if they can keep their recent form going then they stand every chance of winning the division.

The same cannot be said of Washington who have been more solid around the lines this season, but not enough to compete in their division. Their wins have come against a Rams team without Todd Gurley, a struggling Eagles team, and a Buccaneers team who are 3-5 themselves. They will need another couple of drafts before they will truly be able to compete and I suspect they will need to find a quarterback at some point because Cousins turns the ball over too much given what he gives them in the passing game. Meanwhile, people of a certain persuasion might put the karmic consequences of signing Greg Hardy as the reason for the Cowboys’ injury curse, but whether due to random probability or the anger of the football gods, their season has been torn apart. The defence has been fairly solid but hasn’t generated enough turnovers, whilst the offence has not coped with missing Dez Bryant and Tony Romo. A six game losing streak since Romo was hurt has left them out of the playoff hunt, and it will be tough for them to rescue much going forward.

AFC South

Team W L T Form
Colts 4 5 0 W1
Texans 3 5 0 W1
Jaguars 2 6 0 L1
Titans 2 6 0 W1

The AFC South has the dubious distinction of being the only division in the NFL lead by a team with a losing record. This might not change either given that Andrew Luck who has been carrying injuries for stretches of the season, now has a lacerated kidney and will be gone for two to six weeks. They did win two games with their forty year old backup quarterback, but there are still flaws in their roster, even if the offence played better under the new offensive coordinator last week. Somehow the Texans may still have a shot in this division, with Ryan Mallett getting himself thrown off the team, Bill O’Brien has actually settled on a quarterback, but they have not been playing well so it’s hard to see where the improvement is going to come from. Maybe the bye will have done them some good, but I hope not for one more week as they face the Bengals on Monday.

The Jaguars and Titans are both bad teams working on getting better. The Jaguars are beating themselves with mistakes, there are good players and the offence is taking shape nicely, but so far this has resulted in lots of credible performances that have resulted in valiant losses. The Titans defence has made some progress, but the offence really suffered when rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota was injured. However, they have also fired their head coach and Mariota led his team to a win over the Saints so things may improve in coming years for the fans in Nashville.

NFC South

Team W L T Form
Panthers 8 0 0 W8
Falcons 6 3 0 L2
Saints 4 5 0 L1
Buccaneers 3 5 0 L1

The Panthers are the third and final unbeaten team whose excellent defence and surprising offence are slowly winning people round. They have the best running attack in the league, making good use of Cam Newton’s ability to run the ball and are surviving in the passing game despite losing their leading receiver from last year to injury. Still, Greg Olson has played virtually every snap on offence and they have made it work. The Falcons on the other hand started strongly, going 5-0 before fading away to a 6-3 record that includes losses to the Saints, Buccaneers, and the 49ers. They early improvements seemed to have stalled, and it is possible that teams have worked out what their new coach is doing, but they are in the strange position that despite their record, if they don’t halt the slide soon they may fall out of the playoffs. That said, they are two games ahead of their nearest rival for the final wildcard spot but the Eagles, Rams, and Seahawks will all be watching them with interest.

The Saints are another team that started poorly, but whilst their offence is playing much better, their defence is still bad and is giving Drew Brees too much to do for them to win consistently. They might haul themselves into the wildcard race, but they look to have serious flaws so I’m not sure that it will happen.

The Buccaneers have struggled for long stretches of this season, and the problems on defence are worrying given that is Lovie Smith’s area of expertise. However, there have been improvements in Jameis Winstons performance over recent weeks, and the rookie hasn’t thrown an interception in four games so it looks like they have a quarterback to build for the future.

AFC West

Team W L T Form
Broncos 7 1 0 L1
Raiders 4 4 0 L1
Chiefs 3 5 0 W2
Chargers 2 7 0 L5

The Broncos have one of the best defences in the game, which they have needed as Peyton Manning has been bad, giving the ball away too many times. He can still make the throws at times, but he is so inconsistent and it is a testament to the quality of his defence that they have won this many. They look headed to the playoffs, but they will need the running game to become a consistent factor if they want to go deep.

The Raiders have gone from promising to genuinely fun to watch thanks to the Derek Carr to Amari Cooper connection, and an offence that puts up points. Sadly there defence is falling away, but they have at least put themselves in a position to fight for a wildcard spot over the second half of the season, which is not somewhere they’ve been for a long time.

Sadly I think that the Chiefs are just that bit too far behind to also be competing, but  they have looked much better on defence with the return of corner Sean Smith to play opposite the excellent rookie Marcus Peters. The offence is even working around the loss of Jamaal Charles, but whilst they have won their last two games, they’ve probably left themselves too much to do. That said, you can see them spoiling things for some other teams over the second half of the season.

The Chargers are in turmoil, with their stadium dominated by away fans, the possibility of moving to LA hanging over them, whilst on the field they have been beset by injuries. The performance of Philip Rivers has actually been excellent in trying circumstances, but there is only so much he can do, which sadly has been resulting in close losses rather than wins.

NFC West

Team W L T Form
Cardinals 6 2 0 W2
Rams 4 4 0 L1
Seahawks 4 4 0 W2
49ers 3 6 0 W1

The Cardinals have had a couple of blips, but the combination of an opportunistic defence, keeping Carson Palmer healthy, and Bruce Arians’ aggressive play calling has them only one game behind where they were last season. If they can keep Palmer upright then there’s every possibility they can win this division and make a real push into the playoffs.
The Ram and Seahawks have put themselves in a position to compete, but now is the time to see if they have what it takes. The Rams defence has played strong through most of the season, but the addition of a now healthy Todd Gurley has really helped the offence. I have no idea if the addition of slot receiver Wes Welker will help them, but they are now looking like a Jeff Fisher team and have given themselves a shot at the playoffs. The Seahawks meanwhile struggled early on and whilst their defence appears to have largely come around, there are still questions on offence. The defence were rocky early with Kam Chancellor holding out for the first two games, but have improved once he returned. That said, they have given up a number of fourth quarter leads and are ranked thirty first by DVOA in pass defence against tight ends so they are not as good as in recent seasons. The offence has struggled as they have one of the worst offensive lines in football, with Russell Wilson frequently having to run for his life. A 13-12 win over the struggling Cowboys does not exactly inspire confidence, but they have Championship pedigree so it would be foolish to count them out just yet.

The 49ers season was always doomed before it started by all the players they lost or had retire in the offseason. Colin Kapernick has really struggled, and hasn’t looked good whether due to regression, the offence not being designed to take advantage of his skills, or a combination of the two. He has been benched in favour of Blaine Gabbert, who against expectations got a win against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, but it is going to be a long season in San Francisco and it could take a long time for them to replace the talent that they lost in the space of one summer.

That’s it, all thirty-two teams covered, but with half a season left there is plenty to play for and just because it is unlikely, it doesn’t mean that some of the middling teams can’t make the playoffs. It will be fun to look back at the end of the season and see what changed.

Last week I pulled another two games away from Dan, to give me a healthy five game lead with eight weeks left. I’m going to watch the Thursday night game and then set about writing up the game and making my picks for the rest of the week ten games.

Gee:    Week 9   8-5               Overall   69-63
Dan:    Week 9   6-7               Overall   64-68