The Fourth Quarter of the Season

09 Wednesday Dec 2020

Tags

Arizona Cardinals, Brandon Aiyuk, Brian Flores, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Colt McCoy, Covid-19, Gregg Williams, Joe Judge, Josh Allen, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, Nick Mullens, Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks, Trevor Lawrence, Tyler Boyd, Wayne Gallman, Zac Taylor

Well, it is slightly odd that the Baltimore Ravens have finished two games since last week’s post and I am sure that it is a relief to get back to winning ways as they try move on from the Covid-19 outbreak and drag themselves back into playoff contention. The games are coming think and fast as the last week thirteen game took place last night and we have a Thursday night game tomorrow with what looks to be a good matchup of the New England Patriots visiting the LA Rams.

So before we get too distracted by week fourteen let’s cast our eyes back over the previous week as the last quarter of the season starts tomorrow.

What I Saw

Week thirteen started on Sunday and the first game I watched was the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Miami Dolphins in what was very much a game of two halves that the Dolphins ultimately won 19-7. Perhaps the most surprising thing was that the Bengals went into half time with a 7-6 lead that was built off the back of a seventy-two-yard touchdown catch where most of the work was done by Tyler Boyd and this single play was not only not all the points the Bengals would score, but represented 37% of their passing yards for the day, which rises into 46% of passing production once you figure in the thirty-seven yards they lost on six sacks. This was also a surprisingly chippy game between the two teams with multiple ejections, but I can’t help but feel that as much as Dan thought that Brian Flores had read the riot act to the team at half-time, I think Flore might actually have channelled his inner Alex Ferguson and simply left it to, ‘Lads, it’s the Bengals,’ and left. The Dolphins look to be maintaining their push for the play-offs and I’m genuinely looking forward to seeing how they will hold up against the Chiefs next week. As for the Bengals, I think there needs to something more radical than a high pick offensive lineman to sort this mess out, but I don’t know if we’re going to get it even though this is the fifth straight losing season and I see no evidence that Zac Taylor is going to add to his current total of four career wins this season.

I then jumped into the late Sunday games to watch the New York Giants play the Seattle Seahawks in a low scoring but interesting game that at halftime saw the Seahawks lead 5-0 but ultimately, they would lose 17-12. The Giants deserve full credit for this road win as their defence did an impressive job of containing Russell Wilson, whilst a career day that saw Wayne Gallman rush for over one-hundred-yards for the first time in his NFL carreer helped the Giants’ offence to score enough points in the third quarter to take and keep the lead. The Giants are a flawed team, but they still won this game with journeyman backup Colt McCoy barely passing one-hundred passing yards and I think they have found something in Joe Judge. Only time will tell if he can build the Giants back into a franchise that wins regularly and I still have questions about Jason Garrett as an offensive coordinator, but Judge has already proved he is willing to get involved having made a change in the offensive line room when he wasn’t happy with the performance there so I am looking forward to seeing how they develop in the coming years. As for the Seahawks, this game is a setback and they have lost four out of their seven games since their week six bye, but their fate is very much still in their own hands, although they will need to find some consistent form from somewhere with Washington, the Rams and 49ers on the schedule after the Jets next week.

The last game I watched from week thirteen was the Buffalo Bills playing the San Francisco 49ers at their temporary home in Glendale Arizona. It’s interesting to see a division rival open up their stadium for the 49ers, particularly as the Cardinals are hosting the 49ers on Boxing day so the 49ers will be pretty used to the environment by that point. However, this was the first game of the three the 49ers will play in Arizona this year and it started with the Bills driving all the way to the 49ers one-yard line before a failed fourth and one saw the 49ers takeover on downs and drive all the way to the Bills one-yard line, before they too failed to score. Things took a further strange turn when a bad snap saw the Bills immediately turn the ball over straight back to the 49ers, but after two failures from the three yard line, the 49ers’ backup quarterback Nick Mullens (starting his sixth game of the season) threw a short pass to Brandon Aiyuk to finally open the scoring in the last minute of the first quarter. However, the Bills struck back with seventeen straight points of their own to take a lead they never relinquished through the rest of the game. Given all the things that the 49ers have had to deal with this season it is actually a credit to the 49ers that they have been as competitive as they have this season. Meanwhile, this was a return to form for Josh Allen who made some ridiculous throws in this game as the Bills maintained their lead over the chasing Dolphins in the AFC East. It feels like the competition for that divisions going to run to the final week, which could get interesting given the Bills are hosting the Dolphins in week seventeen.

What I Heard

There has been plenty of discussion about coaching this week, particularly in relation to Gregg Williams’ strange call of a cover-0 blitz whilst his defence was trying to protect a lead with seconds left on the clock. There is no defending the decision, which led to the Raiders’ game winning touchdown and cost Williams his job when he was fired on Monday. As much as losing may well help the Jets in the long run as they continue to be in pole position to draft Trevor Lawrence, there is no way Williams made that play call with the draft in mind. This staff surely must know they will be looking for jobs in the new year and no one wants a season like the 2020 Jets on their record so if you hear people suggesting the loss was deliberate, do not take them seriously.

What I Think

There is not time to do a full examination of the problems at the Jets, but clearly there are not many problems being fixed this season. A young quarterback is a good place to start in theory for a franchise, but as I can attest from a fan’s perspective, it is not a magic panacea for all of a franchise’s ills and it’s not like the Jets don’t already have a numebr three overall pick playing quarterback in Sam Darnold. It is also not often that a team that has consistently lost in recent seasons can just turn it around with the addition of a promising young quarterback, just look at the actual number of wins that the Chargers or Bengals have this season.

What I Know

In this strange period where time is both dragging on and slipping through our fingers, we are starting the last quarter of the season with the Bengals absolutely out of the play-off but possibly in position to bag a really good offensive line player if there is one worthy of that high a draft pick. We know that the New Orleans saints and Kansas City Chiefs have already booked their place in the playoffs and that once again the ’72 Dolphins have cracked open their celebratory champagne as they remain for another year the only ever unbeaten NFL team.

What I Hope

This week has been a long one already so what I am really hoping for is some good contests and that the Dolphins keep pushing for the play-offs. One of the TWF teams has to do well this season and it certainly isn’t going to be the Bengals.

Another week where I pick up three games on Dan in the picks competition would be nice too…

2020 Week Thirteen Picks

06 Sunday Dec 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Tags

Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baker Mayfield, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Covid-19, Dallas Cowboys, Dan Quinn, Denver Broncos, Jared Goff, Kansas City Chiefs, Kyler Murray, LA Rams, Lamar Jackson, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Raheem Mostert, Ryan Tannehill, San Francisco 49ers, Sean McVay, Sean Payton, Taysom Hill, Tennessee Titans, Washington Football Team

So after the longest NFL week in history, we start week thirteen on Sunday with the games planned to roll to Tuesday night. I had a winning record in week twelve but Dan extended his lead to a whopping double digits so it would seems hard to predict that I will make a comeback at this point.

Still, I will run through our usual Competition Thursday bits as we prepare for the final week with teams on a bye, and eye up the run-in over the final quarter of the season.

Gee:	Week 12: 9 – 7	Overall: 83 – 95
Dan:	Week 12: 10 – 6	Overall: 93 – 85

Survivor Competition

Both Dan and I got back to scoring ways last week, with the Browns having to work a little harder than the Seahawks to get their win, but win both teams did. This leaves Dan a single point ahead of me going into week thirteen. It is getting harder to find teams now, but Dan has found a matchup he likes with the Broncos visiting the Chiefs, whilst I am nervously going to the well of picking against the Jets one more time to take the Raiders, but I don’t exactly feel great about it.

Current Score

Gee: 8
Dan: 9

Week 13 Selection:

Gee: Raiders
Dan: Chiefs

Bold Prediction of the Week

My bold prediction on the podcast this week is that the Detroit Lions will bounce back from the Matt Patricia firing and beat a struggling Chicago Bears team. Dan could not see it happening so allowed it, and I’m not exactly totally convinced but it certainly qualifies so let’s see how it goes.

Early Games:

When discussing the slate of games on the podcast Dan was not that excited about it but I found several contests that catch my eye.

I’ll start with the New Orleans Saints taking on the Atlanta Falcons, which I think could be interesting for several reasons. After an 0-5 start that saw head coach Dan Quinn fired, the Falcons have gone 4-2 under Raheem Morris and are coming off the demolition of the Raiders last week. I am particularly intrigued to see what the Falcons defense can do against Sean Payton working with Taysom Hill at quarterback. The Saints stuck to a simplified game plan last week with the Broncos not having a starting quarterback so this week’s divisional game will prove a sterner test. I can’t guarantee it will be competitive, but I have a feeling it will be.

The other game that catches my eye in the early slate is the Cleveland Browns’ visit to the Tennessee Titans. This is a meeting of two 8-3 teams who both like to run the ball a lot. I would give the advantage to the Titans given how they have played recently, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill is playing better than the Browns’ Baker Mayfield. It should be a really physical and competitive game so whilst they are not the biggest names in the NFL these days, they have been having very solid seasons and should put on a good game.

Points from the rest:

The Lions will be looking to bounce back from their last two poor performances after the firing of both their head coach and GM, whilst the Bears’ offence continues to struggle and though the defense maintained it’s top five ranking by DVOA, did not look that good last week. I’ve picked the Lions to win as my bold prediction of the week, but to be honest this is a hard game to read.
We don’t have word on whether Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua Tagovailoa is going to start for the Dolphins but it also doesn’t feel to me like it matters that much. The line was too rich for me to back the Dolphins, but I fully expect them to win this one at home against the Bengals
The Texans lost receiver Will Fuller and corner Bradley Roby to PED suspensions and cut Kenny Still this week, whilst the Colts have activated Deforest Bucker from the Covid-19 list so whilst I’m curious about how competitive the Texans will be, I think the Colts should win this one
This week’s game has suddenly got a lot more important for the Las Vegas Raiders having lost two games in a row. That does make me nervous, but they should beat the Jets because at this point it feels like pretty much everyone should beat the Jets. That’s not to say that everyone will and after their demolition by the Falcons last week I’m not as trusting as the Raiders as I was two weeks ago.
The numbers suggest I should pick the Vikings, and I do expect them to win but there was more of a balance to the Jaguars offence last week with journeyman quarterback Mike Glennon starting and I think this could be a closer game than the number suggests.

Saints @ Falcons (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Lions @ Bears (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Bears

Bengals @ Dolphins (-11.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Browns @ Titans (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Colts @ Texans (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Raiders @ Jets (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Jaguars @ Vikings (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Late Games:

The game that leaps out of the late games is the LA Rams coming off a tough loss taking on an Arizona Cardinals team with struggles of their own. The concern for the Rams is the play of Jared Goff, who did not look at all good against the 49ers last week and the usually ultra-positive Sean McVay criticized Goff publicly, although McVay did say he did it because he though Goff could take the challenge. The Cardinals meanwhile come into this game having lost three of their last four games with Kyler Murray nursing an injury and not running the ball as well as he was earlier in the season. This is the first time these two division rivals face off and so I expect a good contest, but I think the Rams are the most likely to win out.

Points on the Rest:

The New York Giants need every win they can get with them in the race for the NFC East lead, but with quarterback Daniel Jones injured it will be tough for them to win on the road. The numbers are very clear about the Seahawks being the right pick against the spread, but there’s something about the Giants where I wouldn’t be surprised if they did do something in this game, even if they are starting Colt McCoy at quarterback.
The Philadelphia Eagles continue to struggle and so I don’t see anything other than another difficult game for them against the Packers in Green Bay. I would love to be proved wrong but I’m not sure where you can find hope as an Eagles fan this season and much like I was saying about the Lions earlier in the season, it is beginning to feel like there will inevitably be changes in the off-season in Philadelphia.
The LA Chargers have struck gold with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert and with the talent on their roster they should be doing better, but this is genuinely a tough spot for them. Bill Belichick has an excellent record against rookie quarterbacks and the Chargers run defense ranks thirty-first in the league by DVOA, and the Pats are not going to miss the chance to exploit that.

Rams @ Cardinals (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Giants @ Seahawks (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Eagles @ Packers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Patriots @ Chargers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Sunday Night Football:

Broncos @ Chiefs (-13.5)

It has been a touch couple of weeks for the Broncos as having had to play without a recognised quarterback last week thanks to their quarterbacks breaking Covid-19 protocols, they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. The reverse matchup finished 43-16 in week seven and so whilst the Chiefs have won their last three games by close margins, they are still 10-1 and I expect the Chiefs to do well again in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Monday Night Football

Washington @ Steelers (-8.5)

We get two Monday night games this week and the first sees the Washington Football Team take on the Pittsburgh Steelers who are coming off a short week having played Wednesday. The Steelers are a good team, but having had an awkward week of preparation and game moves in week twelve, they have a short week to face Washington and whilst I think the Steelers should win, it would not be surprising to see the Football Team make this game more competitive than this line suggests given how they have been playing recently.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Bills @ 49ers (+2.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are hosting the Buffalo Bills in Arizona thanks to not being able to train or play at their own facilities. The 49ers beat the Rams last week and starting to get some players back from injury and might have a chance to drag themselves into playoff contention. The Bills beat the Chargers solidly last week having been unlucky to lose to the Cardinals in week ten, but I think this will be a tough game for them and I would not like to predict a winner, but I do like the 49ers getting the points even if home is not actually home this week or for the rest of the season.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Tuesday Night Football

Cowboys @ Ravens (-9.5)

The Baltimore Ravens host the Dallas Cowboys on Tuesday night, somehow getting the better end of the schedule this week than the Steelers despite being the cause of their game being postponed until Wednesday. Dan has picked the Ravens depending on the status of Lamar Jackson, but the problems the Ravens are having this season are more than just those caused by Covid-19 last week. The Ravens have lost four of their last five games and the offence has not looked right for the majority of this season. I don’t exactly trust this Cowboys team and particularly as Washington absolutely battered them on Thanksgiving after the Cowyboys had even more problems on the o-line, which leaves me in a conundrum. I think that Dan will likely get to stick with the Ravens as it is thought that Jackson should come off the Covid-19 list by Tuesday, but despite all my concerns about the Cowboys the numbers strongly indicate the Cowboys and given how seldom I have won going against the numbers I’m going to reluctantly back the Cowboys, but I also reserve the right to change my mind nearer the game.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

The Second Wave Hits the NFL

02 Wednesday Dec 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Adrian Peterson, Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Bill O'Brien, Bob Quinn, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Covid-19, Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, Daniel Jones, Denver Broncos, Derek Henry, Deshaun Watson, Detroit Lions, Ezekiel Elliott, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jeff Driskel, Jerry Jones, Jim Caldwell, JJ Watt, Joe Burrow, Joe Judge, Kendall Hinton, Marvin Lewis, Matt Patricia, Mike Brown, Mike McCarthy, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, NFC East, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ron Rivera, Tennessee Titans, Thanksgiving Football, Vic Fangio, Washington Football Team

Against a backdrop of second waves of Covid-19 across Europe and the United States it is not a surprise that there has been an increased affect on the NFL in recent weeks that means that I’m writing the week twelve summary post with one game left to finish as I put this post live. The Baltimore Ravens have become the second team to have a facility-based outbreak of Covid-19 and so for reasons of medical safety as much as anything the Ravens take on the Steelers on a Wednesday afternoon nearly a week after it was initially scheduled to play. I will mention the other team who had a serious Covid-19 issue later, but while the cracks are showing in the NFL’s strategy, it is holding up so far and it is clear the league are now determined to keep to their weekly schedules even if they are moving individual games around.

Still, let us start with the games I have seen before we get to the details of the schedule changes that stretch into week thirteen.

What I Saw

A slightly underwhelming pair of Thanksgiving games which saw two forty point blowouts started with the Houston Texans beating the Detroit Lions 41-25. The Lions actually moved the ball well on their opening drive and scored a touchdown to take an early lead. However, the Texans quickly answered with a pick-six touchdown from JJ Watt before the offence got in on the act with a touchdown of their own. The Lions got a second rushing touchdown from Adrian Peterson to give them their last lead of the game as the Texans soon scored another touchdown and hardly looked back. I’ve heard Greg Cosell talking about how well Deshaun Watson has been playing for a number of weeks so it was nice for him to get to demonstrate this on a national stage, but the truth is that this was not a competitive game. The Lions took what seemed like the inevitable step of firing GM Bob Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia after this latest loss and will be looking to start over again as the rebuild with Quinn and Patriicia after the firing of Jim Caldwell produced worse results. This game featured two tweams who started the season with former Bill Belichick coordinators as head coaches, but while Bill O’Brien’s actions as GM of the Texans let himself down despite a good record as head coach, from the outside it looks like Patricia’s attempt to recreate Belichick’s formula rather than create his own was his downfall. This is a pattern we have seen before with the Belichick coaching tree, and stands in contrast to the success that Brian Flores is having with Miami, but it will be interesting to see in what direction both of these franchises head come the off-season.

The second Thanksgiving game saw the Washington Football Team go to Dallas and beat the Cowboys 41-16. There have been problems with the Cowboys’ defence all season, but the offence’s struggles in this game at least could be explained as the pair of alternative tackles that were starting their second game for the Cowboys both went out injured early, reducing them to third string tackles. Throw in a poor day and a fumble from Ezekiel Elliott and it’s easy to see how this game got away. It’s not as if Ron Rivera had an easy task turning around the Football Team to start with, but his coaching through cancer treatment is frankly remarkable, and his team are playing tough football and looks to be heading in the right direction. Alex Smith is not a long term answer at quarterback but there is already talk of him coming back next season, whilst rookie running back Antonio Gibson looks to be establishing himself and finished this game with over a hundred yards rushing and three touchdowns. With the injuries on the offensive line and to Dak Prescott there is some cover for Mike McCarthy’s difficult first season, but the Cowboys are probably still under-performing in a very winnable NFC East and it is the defensive side of the ball that would worry me if I was Jerry Jones. It wouldn’t take much to get the Cowboys back in the race for the division, but even if they do drag themselves back into contention there’s going to be some serious decisions to be made in the off-season.

Continuing the theme of the NFC East, the New York Giants took a share of the division lead with their 19-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. This was more of a contest than I was expecting, with the Bengals defence stepping up to an extent but the offence was only able to generate a total of one hundred and fifty-five yards of total offence and the one touchdown drive took place late in the game against a Giants playing a prevent defence. In truth, the Giants were in control for the majority of the game, had the ball for more time and I like where their defence is headed even if the offence has its limitations with Daniel Jones at quarterback. I worry what the Bengals long term prospect are, even with Joe Burrow who is a phenomenal talented young quarterback, but Zac Taylor has not convinced me with his total of four career wins and the ugly truth is that the Bengals have not had a winning season since 2015. It feels right now like my mindset as a fan has to be a lot more like the pre-Marvin Lewis Days and I find that deeply concerning. I would love to be proved wrong, but right now I feel better about how the Giants are shaping up under first year head coach Joe Judge (and there is no shortage of questions there) than how the Bengals are building. I truly hope I am proved wrong next year and it always used to be said that you shouldn’t judge a coach until their third year. These days teams are a lot quicker to judge (except ironically the Lions) but as old school as Bengals’ owner Mike Brown is, I wonder how long he will put up with the Bengals losing now they have a franchise quarterback.

The final game I watched in it’s entirety this week was the Tennessee Titans return trip to face the Indianapolis Colts that was another forty point blow out (there have been five so far in week twelve) where the Titans won 45-26. The downfall for the Colts was that their top ten defence by DVOA, that had only given up three one-hundred yard plus rushing games going into Sunday, allowing over a hundred in the first half as the Titans amassed a total of two hundred and twenty-nine yards rushing, with one hundred and seventy-eight of them coming from Derick Henry. This efficiency on the ground let the Titans keep the game script how they wanted and they quite literally ran out easy winners. There’s still a little over of the quarter of the season to go, but after a bit of a wobble the Titans have won their last two games to take sole position of the AFC South as they prepare to host the Cleveland Browns next week. The Colts are only a game back from the Titans and are solid football team so I expect these two to be neck and neck going forward unless there is a significant change to either teams roster, which is even more possible than usual this season with Covid-19 stalking teams as well as the more traditional injuries that an NFL team face throughout a season.

What I Heard

I wanted to step away from podcast topics this week to go straight to the head coach of the Denver Broncos after they were forced to play against the New Orleans Saints on Sudnay without any one of the four quarterback on their roster being available.

The reason this happened was fairly straight forward, third string quarterback Jeff Driskel tested positive for Covid-19, which is not so unusual this season. However, all four Broncos’ quarterbacks on the team/practise squad held their own workout on Tuesday and broke the protocols enough to be deemed close contacts of Driskell. This was discovered late enough in the week that none of them had five days to register clear tests ahead of Sunday and be available to play. In fact, the news broke so late that the Broncos only had a few hours to prepare a practice squad receiver Kendall Hinton, who had played some quarterback in college, to start Sunday’s game. It is unsurprising that he only completed one of his nine passes whilst throwing two interceptions.

If there is a positive to come out of this situation, I would say it is the way Fangio handled the discussion after the game stating that he was disappointed in the players for putting the team and the league in this position, but also owning up that he had obviously hadn’t done a good enough job of selling the protocols to them, when they are on their own.

You can see him talk about this and get a snippet of Kendall Hinton discussing the game here.

What I Think

It’s seems pretty clear that the NFL are very focussed on sticking to their schedule of games in a week, even if specific games do get moved about, but at this point they are doing that for medical reasons and not those of competitive balance. The Ravens got moved because they had an outbreak and then delayed an extra day so the players could have some form of in-person workout before playing.

The Broncos however, despite asking for a delay were not granted one because although at a competitive disadvantage, were able to field a team safely from a medical point of view on Sunday.

This week the teams were only allowed to operate virtually on Monday and Tuesday because of concerns over people having out of town visitors for Thanksgiving, and against a background of a second wave of Covid-19 building as we go from autumn into winter the NFL is concerned about getting to the end of its season at it’s usual pace, trying to minimise medical issues, but not worrying about competitive balance to their usual degree.

Given that teams have been fined millions of dollars and a draft pick so far over Covid-19 protocol violations, and still teams like the Raiders have been repeat offenders, perhaps the example of the Broncos playing without a recognised quarterback will sharpen people’s focusses. I remember questioning whether entire position groups going down would delay games early in the season, and now to an extent we have our answer. Unless there is in-facility transmission the answer appears to be no, you are going to have to find a way to cope.

What I Know

I knew it was going to be an odd season, but it somehow feels like it has been going on for months and yet I still can’t quite believe that we are nearly three quarters of the way through the regular season. For all that there were problems in week twelve and as a consequence we have another Wednesday game in week thirteen, I think that if you had told the NFL that they wouldn’t have lost any games by the start of week thirteen, they would definitely have taken it.

What I Hope

It feels more relevant than ever with how the world is to hope that the NFL gets through this pandemic season with no one catching a life changing version of Covid-19. Yes, I hope the league makes it through the season, and I am grateful for football as I always am, but if we learned anything from this week it is how important following protocols are for protecting yourself from Covid-19. Whatever that means for you, I hope you stay safe. With vaccines on the horizon if we can hold things together for a few more months then there is a real chance we can get back to a lot of things we are missing, even if the world will still be a different place.

We owe it to ourselves and all we’ve lost to learn from this experience, and I hope that as we can get back into the world that we do a little better with it and each other. That feels like something worth holding on to as we head into the depths of winter.

2020 Week Twelve Picks

29 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Tags

Aaron Rodgers, Adam Thielen, Baltimore Ravens, Brandon Allen, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Covid-19, Dalvin Cook, Denver Broncos, Derrick Henry, Gardner Minshew, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jake Luton, Jeff Driskel, Julio Jones, Justin Herbert, Justin Jefferson, Kansas City Chiefs, Kendall Hinton, LA Chargers, Matt Ryan, Mike Glennon, Mike Vrabel, Mitchell Trubisky, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Odell Beckham, Patrick Mahomes, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sean Payton, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Taysom Hill, Tennessee Titans, Tom Brady, Tua Tagovailoa

In keeping with my last couple of days in the house, my Thanksgiving picks were a sodden mess of leaking points undermining my attempts to catch up with Dan as he extended his lead to double digits. At this point I think I am just waiting for the end of the season to put me out of my misery but let us see if I can rescue something out of the week.

Early Games:

I think there are two stand out games in the early slate, although they are for slightly different reasons.

The first is the Tennessee Titans return visit to play the Indianapolis Colts to see if they can avenge their loss from week ten. The Colts must be taken seriously, yet the loss of DeForest Buckner will be a blow to a top five defense by DVOA, but they looked pretty good against the Packers last week. Dan and I were both discussing how we were struggling to pick the Titans, but head coach Mike Vrabel seems to have a real feel for game management and working clever little advantages, and although the offence has sputtered a little in recent weeks, we are getting into the time of year where Derrick Henry seem to keep getting stronger. I think this should be a competitive game and I am determined not to miss watching the Colts again.

The other game might not be quite the same contest, but the chance to watch Justin Herbert is not one to miss and with the Buffalo Bills coming off a bye their pass first offence should be raring to go. I might be wrong, but I think this is game is likely to be a high scoring watch that should be a lot of fun, even if I think that ultimately the Chargers will fall short on the road.

What else to watch:

The Las Vegas Raiders will be looking to bounce back after a last drive loss to the Chiefs and with Julio Jones battling to get fit for Sunday, I think this could well be a get right game for the Raiders as Matt Ryan looks like a very different quarterback without Jones.
I now have a certain fascination in what Brandon Allen can do with the Bengals offence, but given what happened when Burrow went down I am not exactly excited. I still like the direction that the Giants are heading, and although their schedule may preclude actually winning the division, I can see them winning this game easily, but would love to be proved wrong.
The Jaguars are moving on from Jake Luton after he threw four interceptions against the Steelers last week, but it is Mike Glennon who gets the start as Gardner Minshew II still works his way back from injury. Frankly, given recent results for the Jaguars, I have a feeling that this won’t matter a whole lot, and the real interest in this game is what the Browns offence does now that they’re not playing in terrible weather and can throw the ball. I’m not expecting fifty drop backs like the Bengals have been trying, but it will be interesting to see how the offence runs without Odell Beckham now that throwing is actually an option.
The Miami Dolphins ran into a defensive coach who had a game plan for Tua Tagovailoa and now that tape exists the Dolphins will have to work out how to counter it. Still, that might not be a problem this week with Tagovailoa struggling with a thumb injury so currently Ryan Fitzpatrick is looking more likely to get a start. I’m not sure either QB will have to do too much to beat the Jets given how well in the other two other phases of the game the Dolphins are playing.
I’m really not sure what to make of either team in the matchup of the Carolina Panthers at the Minnesota Vikings. Whilst I like the direction the Panthers franchise is heading, their defense is unlikely to pitch another shut out and they must develop before they are going to truly compete. The Viking meanwhile lost to the Cowboys last week despite Dalvin Cook generating plenty of yards, as did Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson in the passing game. Either the Vikings recovery was over blown or last week was a blip and this game will shed some light on that, although Adam Thielen being out with Covid-19 will muddy matters. To be honest, I’m not that convinced by either side going into this one.
It is truly weird to see the New England Patriots getting points at home, but that is where we are with them hosting the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have extra time to recover from their loss last week, and have a chance to bounce back against the New England Patriots, but this is not the easiest of road trips and whilst the Cardinals are another team where I like where they are headed, I don’t exactly trust them.

Raiders @ Falcons (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Chargers @ Bills (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Giants @ Bengals (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Browns @ Jaguars (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Titans @ Colts (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Dolphins @ Jets (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Panthers @ Vikings (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Cardinals @ Patriots (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Late Games:

The game that leaps of the page out of the late games is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Bucs have not looked right for a couple of weeks now and whilst I can see Tom Brady and the Bucs offence having some success against the Chiefs defense, they have not all been on the same page recently and I find it hard to believe that they can keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs explosive offence. It is not impossible given the talent the Bucs have, but even laying points on the road I like the Chiefs in this one.

The breaking new on Saturday was that thanks to close contacts after Jeff Driskel tested positive for Covid-19 the Broncos have no quarterback available to them when hosting the New Orleans Saints. The Broncos receiver Kendall Hinton is going to play QB and so this game is likely to be a curiosity if nothing else. I already thought that the match up of the Denver Broncos offence going against the New Orleans Saints’ offence with Taysom Hill as the quarterback was going to be the matchup of the game. With their win last week Sean Payton demonstrated that Hill was a viable option to win a game, but the jury is out on whether he can maintain this for enough weeks that Drew Brees can get healthy and compete in the play-offs. I’m not sure about watching the whole game, but I am definitely interested in the coaching tape of the Saint’s offence this week.

Finally, a divisional game between the San Francisco 49ers and LA Rams will always have some interest thanks to the offensive schemes of the two head coaches, but even getting some players back a win feels like a tough ask for the 49ers and the Rams should be looking to apply pressure on the Seahawks with a win in this game.

Saints @ Broncos (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

49ers @ Rams (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Chiefs @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Sunday Night Football:

Bears @ Packers (-8.5)

This line feels high to me because the Chicago Bears defense is still ranked fourth by DVOA, but their offence is ranked twenty-ninth for a reason and it feels like they will need to address quarterback in the off-season as neither of their options has exactly convinced this year. The Packers will still be smarting from their loss to the Colts last week, and they have had some concerning losses this season, but they are a good team and I would expect them to win this one. If you want to be really simplistic a matchup of Aaron Rodgers versus Mitchell Trubisky is not much of a contest.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Monday Night Football

Seahawks @ Eagles (+5.5)

I am all for letting Russell Wilson play like one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but it was good to see the Seahawks run the ball more last week and get some support from the defense as they beat the Cardinals. I really hope that Pete Carroll doesn’t revert to type and get the run-pass balance too far towards running the ball as has been his desire in previous seasons, but a balanced attack should help this Seahawks win. I would love to say that the Eagles can spring a surprise, and you can’t entirely rule it out, but it seems unlikely for a team who appear to have broken their quarterback and look a shadow of the team who a Super Bowl only a few seasons ago.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Maybe Night Football

Ravens @ Steelers (-3.5)

The poor Pittsburgh Steelers have again had their schedule messed around by an opponent struggling with Covid-19 cases, and there are some real questions about their game against the Baltimore Ravens getting played on Tuesday. It seems like the Ravens have had player to player transmission given they are up to nineteen positive cases, and with them not even able to get into the facility you have to wonder if this game will get played, never mind whether the Ravens can make it competitive. The Ravens were already struggling this season, and this can’t help, whilst the Steelers have managed to overcome every obstacle put in their path but I’m really not sure how the NFL is going to play this one. We can only wait and see, but I think there is only one way we can pick this game.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Thanksgiving

26 Thursday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Cleveland Browns, Covid-19, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team

Whilst week eleven was eventful on the pitch, but in terms of the TWF competitions it was a week of maintaining status quos with Dan keeping his nine point advantage in the picks competition and both of us scoring another elimination in our survivor competition.

Still, with games starting early today it is time to start our week twelve picks, minus the Ravens @ Steelers game that has now been moved to Sunday due to Covid-19.

Gee:	Week 11: 5 – 9	Overall: 74 – 88
Dan:	Week 11: 5 – 9	Overall: 83 – 79

Texans @ Lions (+2.5)

It somehow feels odd that both the Detroit Lions have won four games and the Houston Texans have won three. I have been pretty harsh on the Lions this season, but I was not expecting them to get shut out last week against the Panthers and I am certainly expecting some kind of reaction. That said, the Texans are coming off their own win against of all opponents the Patriots. Unhelpfully, these teams are ranked right next to each other in overall DVOA as a slightly surprising nineteenth and twentieth. I don’t have a strong lean in this one, and the consensus number suggests picking the Texans, but the points at home in what amounts to the Lions’ yearly Super Bowl party has me nervously grabbing the points. It doesn’t hurt that I have to pick us wins against Dan either.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Washington @ Cowboys (-2.5)

The Dallas Cowboys pulled themselves back into the race for the NFC East after they beat the Minnesota Vikings last week. A re-jig of the offensive line and the return of Andy Dalton was enough to dent the Vikings streak of wins as they try to mount their own play-off bid. This makes today’s game against the Washington Football Team even more important and this is another game where I am really not sure where to go. The Football Team are not exactly good, but Alex Smith has given them stability at quarterback, and they have been a tough team to face throughout the season. Their overall ranking by DVOA is actually six places better than the Cowboys, but the consensus line has moved to -3 so this is good value if you like the Cowboys. I don’t like the Cowboys particularly, but I’m not sure I like Washington either and I am wary of bias having watched the Football Team beat the Bengals last week. In short, I want to trust the numbers, but I have conflicting sets of those as well. In the end, there are some trends for both Washington and Cowboys that reluctantly has me going for the Cowboys, but I could feel a real idiot tomorrow as 0-6 or 8-0 runs are probably due to be broken.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Survivor Competition

Well, both of use were wrong last week, with misplaced faith in the Patriots and Vikings being Dan and mine’s downfall. Dan has decided this week to back the Browns over the Jaguars, which is pretty hard to argue with, but isn’t an option for me so after considering going against the Jets or picking the Saints, I have settled on the Seahawks taking on the Eagles.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 8

Week 12 Selection:

Gee: Seahawks
Dan: Browns

Bold Prediction of the Week

I really dislike this feature and particularly struggled with it both before and on the pod, as evidenced by the fact that my shock of the week is the Eagles beating the Seahawks despite selecting opposite that in the survivor pool.

I guess at least this way I have emotionally hedged that game….

Grateful for What You can Rely On

25 Wednesday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Alex Smith, Andrew Whitworth, Andy Reid, Antonio Brown, Arizona Cardinals, Brandon Allen, Carlos Dunlap, Carlos Hyde, Cincinnati Bengals, Covid-19, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Kansas City Chiefs, Kyler Murray, LA Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, NFC East, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Pittsburgh Steelers, Podcast, Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tom Brady, Travis Kelce, Washington Football Team

It feels like 2020 as a year has emphasised how important it is to be able to rely on different parts of our lives, and I’m sure that those working in the NFL feel no different, so as we approach the US holiday of Thanksgiving it feels more important than ever to think about the things we are grateful for in our lives.

I have been enjoying recording a podcast again, even if we have been a little more sporadic than we would have liked coming into the season, but thankfully the missed weeks were not for any serious reasons. I have had enough of those through the year and as odd as it still is to be missing part of the team I am used to have working on this site, it has been so good to speak to my friend Dan nearly every week, both on the pod and around recording. The dynasty league is also getting to the business end of the season, and the teams’ records are closing nicely to keep things competitive to the end. I’m grateful for a relatively smooth-running league given it is my first season as a commissioner and the disruption that Covid-19 threatened early in the season.

What I Saw

The first of the week eleven games saw the Seattle Seahawks tweak some of their game plan as they hosted the Arizona Cardinals in a divisional game, that the Seahawks ultimately won 28-12. Part of the Seahawks plan was to re-balance the offence with the return of running back Carlos Hyde from injury allowing Russell Wilson to make a more reasonable twenty-eight pass attempts as opposed to the fifty he had when these teams faced each other earlier in the season. The Seahawks’ defence also seemed to have a better plan for containing the Cardinals and Kyler Murray, with the Cardinals quarterback only rushing for fifteen yards in this game. I’m not sure that the addition of Carlos Dunlap was the entire answer, but with three QB hits and two sacks it certainly helped, although I suspect it will always be odd for me to watch the long time Bengal play in a number forty-three jersey after his decade in orange and black wearing ninety-six. The NFC West continues to be fearsomely competitive, and I think the Seahawks could well be mounting another run on the play-offs. I’m not panicking about the Cardinals as their destiny is still in their hands, but playing the Rams twice will be the very opposite of facing the NFC East teams still on their schedule.

Moving on to Sunday and the early game I watched was the heart-breaking loss of the Cincinnati Bengals to the Washington Football Team. It was horrible to watch for obvious injury related reasons, but the first half was frustrating as the Bengals generated plenty of yardage but could not score points and so only took a 9-7 lead into half time. It was painfully obvious just how many offensive line problems Joe Burrow was covering up by getting the ball out as the Bengals just couldn’t move the ball without him. My resolve to watch every snap is going to be tested over the next six games as I’m really not sure what there is to be taken from these games, and I am not at all convinced by this coaching staff. As for the Football Team, they did what they needed to win in the second half, and it is still a source of joy to see Alex Smith back on the field. I really don’t want to call who will emerge from the NFC East to host a play-off game, but you cannot count anyone out of it now all four teams have three wins, so it seems there could be many twists and turns to come.

The last Sunday game I watched was the Las Vegas Raiders hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, who went into the game coming of their bye, a situation that Andy Reid’s teams were 18-3 in before Sunday and now stand at 19-3. It was a back and forth game with the Raiders all the way through, but Patrick Mahomes is just behind the tax man and death for inevitability, and led the Chiefs to their final touchdown score with a pass to Travis Kelce to put the game away 35-31 with twenty-seconds on the clock. This drive followed on from Derek Carr giving the Raiders the lead a little over a minute earlier with his own touchdown drive that ended with a pass to a tight-end. The Raiders are a serious team this season, whose defence has risen to the lofty heights of a twenty-fourth ranking by DVOA, and whilst it still looks like the Cheifs and the Steelers are the best of the AFC if not the NFL, I am sure no one would look forward to facing the Raiders with the way they are playing at the moment.

The final game I saw was the Monday night contest between the LA Rams visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneer, which was another back an forth game that saw both teams trade score, but the Bucs only took the lead once and were eventually defeated 27-24. This game did not go how I was expecting, and as much as Tom Brady struggled again and threw a couple of bad interceptions, it was the fact that the Buccaneers could not disrupt Jared Goff and the Rams offence even with veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth missing through injury. A couple of weeks ago it felt like the Buccaneers were shaping into one of the best teams in the NFL, but they seem to have fallen back in the last few weeks. This dip does seem to coincide with the signing of Antonio Brown but it might not be that, and those of us outside the franchise can’t truly know. I am still inclined to think this is the growing pains of a team still assimilating a lot of new players without a proper off-season programme, but they are running out of weeks to get everyone on the same page ahead of the play-offs. There should still be time, but I do not feel as confident that they will pull this off as I did only a couple of weeks ago. The Rams meanwhile continue to compete and whilst there are going to be questions regarding Jared Goff in the big game until he repeatedly proves people wrong, he still does enough to win more often than not and has already played in one Super Bowl for Rams. I am not sure he can live up to his contract, but I think the criticism of him often goes too far the other way and I expect the Rams to be there or there abouts come the sharp end of the season.

What I Heard

There has been a lot of talk about the Joe Burrow injury, with lots of people pointing out how often he had been hit this season and everyone agreeing what a blow it was. As a fan the tweet is still pretty heart breaking, even with the positive attitude:

Thanks for all the love. Can’t get rid of me that easy. See ya next year✊
— Joey Burrow (@JoeyB) November 22, 2020

I’ve heard positive things from medical commentators that he should come back as good next season, and I just hope the Bengals have an improved situation for him to work with.

Still, hearing Alex Smith on Peter King’s podcast was an even greater comeback and as much as the loss was painful, there’s not another quarterback I’d rather lose to than Smith after all he went through to get back on the field.

It’s a timely reminder of the lengths these highly talented athletes go through to have a career and the risks they are taking even before you take Covid-19 into account.

What I Think

The fates appear to have been listening to Dan and mine’s conversation on Tuesday regarding Covid-19 and the NFL’s commitment to getting the season done as demonstrated by its upping of all teams to the intensive protocol. We mentioned the Raiders issues last week that still saw them play the Chiefs this Sunday, and mentioned that the Ravens were already operating virtually after some positive tests.

In a move that I think Dan is taking as a deliberate pre-empting of the podcast release tomorrow, the Baltimore Ravens game against the Steelers in Pittsburgh has been put back to Sunday. In the context of how the protocols are running it makes perfect sense as this gives the Ravens enough days that they can get five clear days of tests for those close contacts to the positive tests, and as long they don’t get an escalating situation that we’ve not seen since the Titans outbreak earlier in the season, then it seems likely the game will take place on Sunday.

I really wasn’t sure when the season started whether that the NFL was going to get to the end of the season, and I certainly expected them to have to run late, but in fairness the league and franchises (including all players and staff) are currently on schedule with no lost of games yet, and there are contingencies if the worsening situation should affect teams and the schedule more dramatically. The real world test of all of this is continuing to escalate, but on then league’s own terms it is a case of so far so good.

What I Know

If the trues wisdom is knowing that you know nothing, then the 2020 season has been a very apt demonstration of it.

I feel like you can trust perhaps two and a half teams to win regularly at the moment, and then there is a large number of teams that win or lose games when you are least expecting it. Let’s not even start on the mess that is the NFC East where all four teams have a riotous three wins and a shot at the play-offs.

There’s always a large element of randomness in the short NFL season, but that has never been clearer than in this Covid affected season with its absence of proper off-season, expanded practice squads, more relaxed IR rules, and varying Covid-19 protocols. All that said, whoever does eventually win the Super Bowl, if and when it has been played, will have truly earned a championship.

What I Hope

This week I hope to be proved wrong, and that the Bengals give us something to enjoy. I’ll take Bandon Allen starting and helping this team develop in Burrow’s absence.

Of course I will be hoping for a full and swift recovery for Burrow as well, but I can’t write that every in post from now until next season so let’s just take it as read.

Get well Joe.

As for the rest of you, look at the things you are grateful and tell the people responsible thank you. I think we could all stand to hear that at the moment.

2020 Week Eleven Picks

22 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Whitworth, Antonio Brown, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Covid-19, Dalvin Cook, Drew Brees, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Rams, Lamar Jackson, Las Vegas Raiders, Matt LaFleur, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Sean McVay, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Taysom Hill, Teddy Bridgewater, Tennessee Titans

After a pretty disastrous week ten for picks it is kind of appropriate that I got week eleven off to a losing start, but I suppose I had better start from the beginning.

The last week was pretty rubbish for me given that I was ill for a lot of it, but let’s hope that’s the last week of the season that my routine is affected by illness. I fell another four games back from Dan and so whilst I managed to keep his lead down to single digits, it really does feel like he is destined to take over from his dad as picks champion, which somehow feels appropriate. He has even scored more points than my value tracking numbers, although because there isn’t always a line advantage his winning percentage is over ten points lower, but I am no where near 50-50 this season so I am clearly going to have to re-work things in the off-season.

However, having watched the Seahawks stomp over the pair of us backing the Cardinals on Thursday night, it’s time to swing through the survivor competition and get into the rest of the week eleven slate of games.

Gee:	Week 10: 4 – 10	Overall: 69 – 79
Dan:	Week 10: 8 – 6	Overall: 78 – 70

Survivor Competition

Through ten weeks Dan and I are a pretty respectable eight and seven points respectively. Dan’s confidence paid off last week as he took the Vikings over the Bears whilst my play against the Texans with the Browns worked out for me. Although the Jets are back in play this week, neither Dan or I are trusting enough of the Chargers to risk them as our pick and so while Dan is demonstrating confidence in the Patriots recent run of wins by backing them over the Texans, I am working my way up the list of losing teams and settling on the Vikings going against the Cowboys. I am a little concerned that Jerry’s team are coming off a bye and are getting Andy Dalton back from his concussion/Covid-19 nightmare, but there are fifteen places between them in the overall DVOA rankings and I like how the Vikings have been playing in recent weeks.

Current Score

Gee: 7
Dan: 8

Week 11 Selection:

Gee: Vikings
Dan: Patriots

Early Games:

I can find reasons to pretty much watch any NFL game, but it does feel like this week the exciting contests are a little thinner on the ground and somewhat weighted to the later part of the slate and Monday.

The first of the early games to really catch the eye is the Tennessee Titans travelling to face the Baltimore Ravens, but that is as much because of what it will tell us about the teams than conviction in the inherent quality of the contest. The Titans are a perfectly respectable 6-3, but the concern will be that they have slipped to that record after a 5-0 start and have lost three of their last four games. The defence is not good and the kicking game has been a real Achilles’ heel and whilst the big names have been performing on offence, losses to the Colts and the Steelers will be concerning as they came at home whilst having already lost to the Bengals on the road, the Ravens will prove a stern test. The Ravens are a matching 6-3, but whilst they have another top ten defense and are second in the league in special teams by DVOA, the offence is ranked in the twenties and is definitely struggling after they set the league alight last season. The interesting commentary I have heard over this is that for all the questions about Lamar Jackson throwing the ball this season, he is near the top of the league when throwing on first down, the problem with their run heavy attack is that the Ravens just don’t do this a lot. If the Ravens can figure out their pass-run balance on first down, and they are known as one of the more analytically minded teams, then they could truly terrify, but as I have said all season, they won’t really scare opponents until they can demonstrate the ability to come back from a big deficit. I think they are unlikely to face that problem in this game though, and think they are likely to win a physical game although that line does look generous to me.

The other game I am interested in is the New Orleans Saints hosting the resurgent Atlanta Falcons. The Saints have looked a lot better in the last couple of weeks, but they are obviously going to be a different team whilst Drew Brees recovers from his collapsed lung and broken ribs. The Saints demonstrated they could win consistently without Brees for multiple weeks last year, but Teddy Bridgewater is now starting for the Panthers and it is interesting that at the time of writing the starter is rumoured to by Taysom Hill and not Jameis Winston. Regardless the Saints will be without Brees for at least three weeks as he’s been placed on IR and they start this run against a rested Falcons team who have won three of their last four games. If the Falcons continue to win at this rate it could make how to proceed in the off-season a tricky question, but this is their first real test since their mini turnaround given that it consisted of beating a Vikings team without Dalvin Cook, then facing the Lions, Panthers and Broncos. I think I like the Saints to win out given their experience and defense, but I am not exactly sure about it and the line seems high to me.

From the rest:

The Bengals are a two-win football team for a reason, and after a really great win against the Titans they were battered by the Steelers last week. This is a very winnable game, but the experience of Alex Smith worries me, even if it is amazing to see him come back from the injuries he had to start in the league once more. If the Bengals don’t win this one though, you will likely find my querying the directions of the franchise under Zac Taylor in next week’s podcast.
The Eagles still stand atop the NFC East despite their loss against the Giants last week, but they were meant to come back stronger from the bye not lose another game and this is a tough match up as they travel to Cleveland to face a Browns team with twice as many wins. The Eagles are going to have to really improve to compete in this one and if they don’t soon then a very winnable division is going to slip through their fingers. It is a sign of how far the Browns have progressed this season that there’s not a lot to say this week and we are not focused on Odell Beckham’s injury.
The story breaking about last season’s Lions having a party at the end of the season because they would be free of Matt Patricia is not a ringing endorsement of him as a head coach, and having just finished a biography about Bill Belichick for all his testy relationship with the media, his players like and respect him and he wins, something Patricia with a 13-27 record has failed to consistently do. Having beat Washington by three points last week the struggling Panthers provide another opportunity to pad the win column, but it still feels like the Lions are a franchise marking time until off-season changes.
With two consecutive wins the Patriots have dragged themselves back into contention and are only a win away from get back to even wins and losses, which they really should get this week against a Texans team who can’t really compete now that Deshaun Watson no longer has DeAndre Hopkins to throw to. The slow rebuild the Texans are going to need over the coming seasons will stand testament to how GM Bill O’Brien let down head coach Bill O’Brien.
The Pittsburgh Steelers unbeaten streak was never in doubt against the Bengals last week, and I doubt they will struggle to beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville, but it will be worth keeping an eye on this game just in case the Steelers have one eye on their week twelve Thanksgiving meeting with the Ravens.

Falcons @ Saints (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Bengals @ Washington (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Eagles @ Browns (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Lions @ Panthers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Titans @ Ravens (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Patriots @ Texans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Steelers @ Jaguars (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Late Games:

I think there is a singular stand out game in the late slot, which is the Green Bay Packers taking their 7-2 record to Indianapolis and a Colts team who have won consistently but haven’t quite convinced yet. This should be a really interesting contest when the Packers have the ball as it will see Aaron Rodgers running Matt LaFleur’s offence against a Colts defense who are currently ranked top five by DVOA, but it will likely be determined by how well a fading Philip Rivers can operate a Colts offence that hasn’t quite found its feet this season against a Packers defense that has so far done enough to win games thanks to their offence being second only to the Chiefs by DVOA. I am really looking forward to this one.

From the rest:

It is a testament of how things are coming together for the Dolphins that this looks like a straightforward game for them given that the Broncos are struggling to do anything consistently and Drew Lock has failed to prove himself the answer at quarterback despite the promise he had shown coming into the season.
The team without a win meets the team who seem to specialise in close losses, and something has to give. It is not exactly a surprise that the LA Chargers are favourites, but the Jets could be more competitive than this line suggests coming off a bye
The Cowboys will be hoping that the return of Andy Dalton gives them a boost as they also come off the bye, but the Vikings have looked a different team since getting Dalvin Cook back and will have an eye on a run to the play-offs in the final seven games of the season. However, with games on the road against the Buccaneers and Saints to come, they can’t afford any slip ups, including dropping a game against the struggling Cowboys.

Dolphins @ Broncos (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Jets @ Chargers (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Cowboys @ Vikings (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Packers @ Colts (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Sunday Night Football:

Chiefs @ Raiders (+6.5)

This tasty looking Sunday night game feature a divisional matchup where the Chiefs will be looking to revenge their single loss of the season to the Las Vegas Raiders, which is the only game where Patrick Mahomes has thrown an interception. The Raiders continue to struggle with Covid-19 protocols as one of the most heavily fined teams in the league had over half of their defensive starters put on the Covid-19 list this week due to close contact to a person with a positive test. As of Saturday there had been no further positive tests so if that holds they should get them all back for this game, but they have not been in the facility whilst the Chiefs are coming off a bye and Andy Reid has an 18-3 record after the bye so I have a feeling I know which way this contest will go. The Raiders will be hoping to confound this record but have not exactly had the ideal preparation to do so.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Monday Night Football

Rams @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

This should be a really good game as the LA Rams have been compeititve in pretty much every game this season and have a top ten offence and defence. The issue could be that Jared Goff is a quarterback who tends to either look really good or confused, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with their best defence by DVOA absolutely have the capacity to take Goff out of his game. The additional problem for the Rams is losing Andrew Whitworth at left tackle to a knee injury against the Seahawks last wee as even at 39 Whitworth was playing great football and he will be a big miss. The Bucs have only three losses this season, two against a Saints team that seem to have their number and to a Bears team that the Bucs should have beaten on a Thursday night if it was not for the number of penalties they gave away. The unsurprising bad news stories that follow the unstable Antonio Brown hit this week, demonstrating the dangers of signing him but for now the Bucs are coming off a big win against the Panthers and will be looking to prove their status against the Rams and Chiefs ahead of their week thirteen bye. I would not like to bet against the Bucs winning this week, but the line did give me pause picking the game, but as much as I rate Sean McVay as an offensive mind, the known issues with Goff against good defences would already worry me before he lost his left tackle.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

AAF: Chargers End of Game Play Calling

15 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film, Gee's Thoughts

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Anthony Lynn, Carl Nassib, Donald Parham Jr., Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton, Justin Herbert, Kalen Ballage, Keenan Allen, LA Chargers, Lamarcus Joyner, Las Vegas Raiders, Mike Williams, NFL, Nick Kwiatkoski, Trayvon Mullen, Trey PipKins III

I am trying something a little bit different this week with my Amateur Adventures in Film post because as I have discussed on the podcast, I am struggling to find time to grind an entire game’s worth of tape, even if I am only looking at one side of the ball in a game.

However, having complained about the LA Chargers play calling at the end of their loss to the Las Vegas Raiders I thought I would take a look at the coaching tape and go through it in a little bit more detail, particularly as having gone back and watched the whole game after recording the podcast on Monday there was another red-zone play that caught my eye that I wanted to contrast against the final two plays.

Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert had led the Chargers seventy-one yards using up four minutes and thirty-one seconds of play clock and using all three timeouts, but spiked the ball with six seconds left on the clock and only needing four yards to score a touchdown and win the game. Perhaps not the best clock management, but the Chargers were in a position where they could win the game, yet here is where the problems start.

The Chargers’ first call on second and four with six seconds left was a fade pass to Mike Williams who had lined up on the right side of the field with the team in a shotgun formation with 11 personnel (one running back & one tight-end) on the field. There was no motion and so this was an execution play relying on the six foot four Williams to come down with a contested catch in the back corner of the endzone. It was a nice enough thrown ball, but this was really a fifty-fifty shot and it did not work.

I am not a huge fan of the goal line fade route, but calling one from four yards out really gives the pass target a very tight area with which to work. Additionally, the Chargers were static before the snap of the ball so there was no indication of the coverage and more importantly they didn’t make the Raiders’ defence have to adjust with seconds left on the clock and the game on the line.

I knew I didn’t like this call when I watched the game highlights on Monday, and was wrong about the player targeted when recording our podcast that night, but there is an additional factor that made these two end of game plays worse, so let me take you back to the second quarter for an end zoneplay that resulted in a touchdown.

The Chargers are lined up on the Raiders five-yard line on fourth and one. The Chargers come out in 11 personnel and line up in a single back formation. First they motion tight-end Hunter Henry right so he swaps sides of the formation and now lines up on the right-side of the offensive line and a Raiders defender follows him (I’d love to identify them properly but the Raiders’ silver on white numbers are not that easy to pick up on coaching tape). The Chargers then send receiver Jalen Guyton left in jet motion left before the snap of the ball with Raiders corner Trayvon Mullen following. The play is a simple toss right, but the blocking in this play is what caught my eye when watching the game on Tuesday as Keenan Allen was lined up close to the formation on the right hand side and when the ball was snapped, Allen blocks in pushing Raiders defensive end Carl Nassib left. This isn’t a pancake block or anything physically impressive because it doesn’t have to be, as Herbert tosses the ball right to running back Kalen Ballage, all Allen had to do was push Nassib far enough left as the defender rushes up field that Ballage can get outside of him, which is what happens. This has the effect that it frees up right tackle Trey Pipkins III to pull right without worrying about Nassib and he blocks safety Lamarcus Joyner as Hunter Henry takes the unidentified Raiders defender who followed his motion, which when combined with Dan Feeney getting to the second level and cutting line-backer Nick Kwiatkoski and delaying him just enough, means there is enough of a lane that Ballage can run the ball in for a touchdown with hardly any contact.

I was hoping to diagram this play up, but I am still looking for the right application to allow me to do that and I ran out of time. What I liked about the play was the double motion before the ball and the inventive blocking scheme. Now, I think you should already be able to see the contrast between that scoring play and the static goal line fade that didn’t work. However, whilst I can understand wanting to throw the ball quickly to get another chance if you only have six seconds on the click, with one second on the clock you know that this play is it so it had better be a really good one so let’s take a quick look at that.

The Chargers line up in shotgun with what I think is 12 personnel, but this time the have a quad of players on the left side of the formation, and tight-end Donald Parham lined up on his own on the right. Once again, the Chargers are static before the snap and they throw another fade right to Parham who caught the ball, but couldn’t hold onto it as he hit the ground. On the left side of the play Keenan Allen drops into a receiver screen position behind the other three Chargers’ players blocking, although the Raiders have an extra defender in the area. However, I do not understand why with the game on the line the Chargers abandon motion before the snap, there is no kind of trickery just another fifty-fifty fade pass. It is even more frustrating when you see such a nice goal-line play earlier in the game like the one that I wrote up.

I developed a lot of respect for Anthony Lynn whilst watching Hard Knocks before the season started, but a combination of game management and play calling lost what was a winnable game and I really struggle to believe that the final fade pass was the best play the Chargers had available to them.

The Chargers keep losing close games, and if you look at the final drive in this game I think you can see why and the combination of game management and play calling like this is a big part of why. It is reasonable to expect Justin Herbert to get better at clock management as he gains experience, but the team have to be calling the right plays and at this point, I think it is fair to wonder if the Chargers will correct it and if they don’t, then big changes could be coming this off-season.

2020 Week Ten Picks

15 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Tags

Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Bill Lazor, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Carson Wentz, Chicago Bears, Covid-19, Dalvin Cook, Detroit Lions, Jared Goff, Joe Judge, Kansas City Chiefs, Kirk Cousins, LA Rams, Matt Nagy, Matt Rhule, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFC East, NFC West, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Podcast, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Week 10 Picks

The split of this Sunday’s games is a little more even this week because of the Masters golf tournament so we actually have more late games than early ones. I felt happy with my Thursday night pick up until half time, but the Titans demonstrated why all three phases of the game are important and I should remember that lines which cross key numbers or in that game’s case, go from giving to getting points mean it is a bad plan to stick with the giving number. Luckily Dan thought as I did so I only dropped a game back from being evens, but it is another thing to remember as we run through the week ten games.

Early Games:

I think there are two games that stand out in the early slate, and Dan has already commented on the podcast about my interest in one of these games so if you can’t hear his disappointment from reading my words, have have a listen here.

I think the obvious big game is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who will be desperate to get right after their horrible loss to the Saints last week. The Bucs travel to Carolina to take on their second divisional opponent in a row and a Panthers team who may only have a 3-6 record but are not an easy team to face even if they have lost their last four games. The Panthers pushed the Chiefs hard last week and only lost by a field goal to the Saints in week seven so I can see them putting up a credible effort against the Buccaneers. However, two of the Bucs’ three losses this season are against the Saints whose coaching staff seem to have the number of both the Bucs offence and defense so whilst I like what Matt Rhule and his staff are building in Carolina, the Bucs are still ranked second overall by DVOA so I like them to win this game, but I’m not so sure about them covering a five and half point line.

The other game of interest to me is the Philadelphia Eagles travelling to face the New York Giants, that is a divisional matchup from the NFC East – the division so bad that all four teams have losing records. I actually like some of what Joe Judge has been building with the Giants and picked them to beat the Washington Football Team last week, but the Eagles are coming off a bye and will be hoping that some rest and returning players enables them to push on in the second half of the season and win the division. I think the Eagles are still the team to beat, but they have to persuade Carson Wentz that throwing away the ball if the pass is not there is an okay thing to do, and get some kind of consistency from the offences. The Eagles still have a good pass rush, but they have not been a good football team this season, which makes the divisional matchups even more important. The Giants own defensive line has been doing some interesting things, but I think they are likely to fall short in this game, If the Giants could get the win they would suddenly be in a wide open race for the division, but I really don’t know what we should expect. It might not be the prettiest game to watch, but I think there is a certain fascination in this one and it might well make it on my watch list for week ten.

Points from the rest:

If the Browns are to continue their push for the play-offs then they need to beat a 2-6 Houston Texans team who interestingly are ranked eighteenth by DVOA. With Baker Mayfield back from the Covid-19 list as the Browns come back from the bye they should do so and with the Browns looking like a competently ran franchise I like them to do just that, even if the line does make me nervous.
The Washington Football Team visiting the Detroit Lions feels like a game for the die hards only. It was always going to be a big job to turn the Football Team round, whilst the Lions look like a team who are going to fire their head coach after three years.
The Green Bay Packers are laying a huge number of points in this game because the Jaguars are bad. That said, rookie quarterback Jake Luton did a couple of nice things in his debut last week so the line might be in danger but I very much doubt the result is.

Texans @ Browns (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Washington @ Lions (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Jaguars @ Packers (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Eagles @ Giants (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Buccaneers @ Panthers (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Late Games:

I can make an argument for watching all six of the late game but I’ll stick to writing up a couple of them so this post doesn’t get out of hand.

The Buffalo Bills beat the Seahawks last week and take their 7-2 record on the road to face another NFC West team in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are a very respectable 5-3 but if you look at their wins, the only win against a team with a current winning record was against the Seahawks. The Cardinals are actually ranked two places better overall than the Bills and are in a tougher division, but with the Cardinals having feasted against NFC East teams and the Jets I think the Bills are a more battle tested group and I like the Bills getting points.

One of the matchups of the week is the NFC West divisional game between the LA Rams and the visiting Seattle Seahawks. I have a feeling this will be an entertaining game as the Seahawks pass defense is struggling and with a sluggish pass-rush you would think that Jared Goff will be able to make the Rams’ offence look like its best self. That might not be enough to get a win against the Seahawks, but I think it should be a highly entertaining game and certainly not one to be missed.

Points from the rest:

The Las Vegas Raiders host a Denver Broncos team who seem to be kings of the comeback but can’t put a complete game together and so I fancy the Raiders to get the win, although I’m really not sure about covering the line.
The Miami Dolphins host the LA Chargers in a showcase of two rookie quarterbacks exciting their fan bases. The Dolphins’ players who were put on the Covid-19 list is a concern for this game, but at this point I will believe the Chargers will win consistently only when they prove it, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get a third win this week.
I don’t know if the Cincinnati Bengals visit to Pittsburgh will live up to it’s hard hitting reputation, but I would like Joe Burrow to at least look good against the Steelers, a team that has beaten the Bengal in eleven of their last twelve contests
The 49ers visit to the New Orleans Saints should be a marquee matchup, and it’s possible that head coach Kyle Shanahan will muster some tricks from somewhere against the Saints’ defence, but with the 49ers enormous injury list and the Saints looking ominously good last week I wouldn’t like to predict it.

Bills @ Cardinals (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Broncos @ Raiders (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Chargers @ Dolphins (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Bengals @ Steelers (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Seahawks @ Rams (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

49ers @ Saints (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Sunday Night Football:

Ravens @ Patriots (+6.5)

In recent years this would be a great Sunday night game, and it still might spring something of a surprise, but between the players who opted out of the season or just aged out the Patriots are not a good team this year. The Ravens’ offence may not be firing on all cylinders and you would expect Bill Belichick and his staff to have some wrinkles for that offence, but with twenty-one places between their overall ranking by DVOA and this line dropping below the key number I am seeing online I’m going to pick the Ravens. I am nervous about this pick, but lets not forget that the Pats did nearly lose to the Jets last week.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Monday Night Football

Vikings @ Bears (+2.5)

The Minnesota Vikings won their second game in a row last week when they soundly beat the Lions, and they have a couple of winnable games coming up so if they can beat the Chicago Bears there is an outside chance of them dragging themselves back into the play-off hunt after a poor 1-5 start. It is a long shot, but the return of Dalvin Cook has given the Vikings’ offence balance and enabled Kirk Cousins to succeed in play-action while the defense is now ranked fifteenth in the league by DVOA despite the overhaul of the secondary. The Bears defense is of course the strength of the team once again, but even though it is ranked in the top five, the Bears offence is ranked twenty-eighth and their special teams are only a little better. Things have got desperate enough in Chicage that Mat Nagy has handed over play calling duties to Bill Lazor, which is a move I do like as it means Nagy can concentrate on managing the game. However, the Bears’ quarterback situation does not cover up the problems they are having on the offensive line and I kind of fancy the Vikings to win this one so with this liner once again dropping off a key number I am seeing online, that is the way I am going to pick.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2020 Week 10

12 Thursday Nov 2020

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

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Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Competition Thursday, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, NFL, Philip Rivers, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans

Well, it’s not exactly a milestone on the way to overhauling the lead Dan extended by a point in week nine, but I am slowly approaching fifty percent in my picks, which feels like I might get back to some kind of respectability by season’s end even if I don’t pull off the comeback, but I’m not ruling that out either so let’s get to Competition Thursday for week ten.

Gee:	Week 9: 8 – 6	Overall: 65 – 69
Dan:	Week 9: 9 – 5	Overall: 72 – 62

Colts @ Titans (-2.5)

I’m really looking forward to this game as it is a big divisional encounter between two winning teams so there are big repercussions on the result. It is also an interesting line as my first instinct is to pick the Titans at home on a short week, but looking at the consensus number online it would seem like this is actually good value line for the Colts. However, whilst the Colts have a really good defence, I don’t entirely trust their offence with a thirty-nine year old Philip Rivers at quarterback, plus the Titans are back to winning ways so whilst I could very well still be wrong, I am going to back my first thought as that is often as good a way to pick as any.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Survivor Competition

So, by adopting Dan’s strategy of picking against the Jets I kept pace with him in week nine as he correctly picked the Packers to beat the 49ers. The Jets strategy is unavailable to both of us this week as they are on a bye, as are the Cowboys so looking at the matchups featuring teams with losing records in week ten I can’t go for the Packers against the one win Jaguars as I’ve already used them, so I’m going to go for the Browns hosting the two win Texans. Dan is clearly feeling brave as he is going with the Vikings on the road in Chicago against the Bears but he was clearly feeling good about it when I queried it so we shall have to see how that works out.

Current Score

Gee: 6
Dan: 7

Week 10 Selection:

Gee: Browns
Dan: Vikings

Bold Prediction of the Week

With us recording the podcase early this week, I only have the one bold prediction, which is that the 3-5 Minnesota Vikings will beat the 5-4 Chicago Bears, which was bold enough for Dan to allow and that’s all that really matters to me. I wonder if my prediction had an effect on his survivor pick.

The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

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