A poor week from me saw Dan and his dad close the gap to me, but I still have an overall winning percentage as we go in to week eight.

Gee:	Week 7:   6-8	Overall:   56-50
Dan’s Dad:	Week 7:   10-4	Overall:   53-53
Dan:	Week 7:   9-5	Overall:   53-53

Washington @ Vikings (-15.5)

This doesn’t look like a competitive Thursday night game, but we have had surprises before. However, Washington are 1-6 for a reason and won’t have the weather helping them this week as they travel to the dome of the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are one of the few NFL teams who still seem to have a home advantage and are playing well at the moment, so I expect them to win, but this is a very big line.

Now, at the risk of making things overly complicated, I am seeing this line as high as -16.5 so this is a comparatively good number, although it is still over two touchdowns. My first instinct is this line is too big, but my first instinct has sucked on a Thursday so I’m going all in on the Vikings in Kirk Cousins’s revenge game. I just hope that 3D forgives me.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Week 8 Trivia

‘It’s Week 7 and the season for me has not yet arrived at a pattern with unpredictability being the only constant in this Curate’s Egg of a year. Normally we would have a gut feel about where the season is heading by now, but I don’t think that is yet clear.

In fairness there are a couple of teams showing great consistency but for all the wrong reasons so I will not intrude on anyone’s feelings. For me the rise of the Vikings, quietly staying in contention is a very competitive division makes for very pleasing reading. However, the season’s inconsistency shows we should take nothing for granted until it is certain – the biggest danger for any team is its next fixture. Don’t forget that just a few weeks ago there was an anger and desperation in Vikings hearts but that has now evaporated, for now. Let’s hope that Kwik-Fit can keep the wheels on.

So, have the wheels come off in the Trivia competition?

I asked who it was that Carson Palmer achieved his first win. Once again Gee’s logic was good, but his luck wasn’t by guessing The Browns. Dan also went Browns and again I could see why. The answer, I’ve been looking out questions where they both have a chance, was The Dolphins and that leaves both tied on 6 points as once again the Theme has remained elusive.

This week I have what should be an easy 2 points each with this question on the Cleveland Browns.

What is Browns coach Paul Brown credited with inventing?

Its over to you’

I’m back to my usual form with picking Thursday night, and I shall have to see if I can work out a way to fade my own selections next week, but without further ado let’s get to the week seven trivia question and hopefully better selections for the rest of the games.

‘Which team did Cincinnati Bengal quarterback Carson Palmer get his first win against?’

This is a proper I’m going to look stupid question as Palmer’s first game came a year after he was drafted as this was a time when quarterbacks still routinely sat for their first year, but it was also something like fifteen years ago so there wasn’t the back loading of the season with division games – I’m going to stick in the AFC North, although it could be any one and say the Cleveland Browns. Knowing my luck it will be the Dolphins.

For the theme I’m going for The Wrong Football, as the teams involved all seem to be related to the teams we support or have seen play.

‘I think I’m going to just have to go down the logical route on this one seeing as Carson Palmer will have played the Ravens, Browns and Steelers twice per year, so it’s more likely to be one of those than anyone else. I think I’ll go with the Cleveland Browns.

Still no clue on the theme but now after that clue I feel a bit silly for deleting the old emails with the questions on!’

Rams @ Falcons (+3.5)

I’m really not sure about this one as the Falcons have been plain bad for a number of weeks, particularly on defence whilst the Rams have also been struggling. I’m leaning towards the Rams for the win despite the problems they have been having, but the number does give me pause. In the end I’m going to plump for the Rams but I really don’t feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Dolphins @ Bills (-16.5)

I have seen this line as high as seventeen and I think the Bills are a genuinely good team, but I think this line is too high given the Dolphins are starting Fitzpatrick and the Bills’ highest win so far this season is fourteen. I could be wrong, but I’m not sure the Bills’ offence is going to generate the points necessary to cover this line, even if I expect them to win.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Jaguars @ Bengals (+3.5)

The Jaguars may be on a losing streak of two games, but they are still a much better side by DVOA and it’s so hard to trust the Bengals at the moment. I perhaps should be grabbing the points but I’m not sure the Bengals will keep this one within a field goal. I would love to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:        Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Vikings @ Lions (-1.5)

I’m seeing very different lines than this one, and my concern is that the Lions have been competitive for pretty much all year, whilst the Vikings have been a bit up and down, but given how the Vikings have played in the last couple of weeks and they’re still getting points I’m going to pick them.

Gee’s Pick:        Vikings
Dan’s Pick:        Vikings

Raiders @ Packers (-6.5)

The Green Bay Packers are 5-1 despite the new offence not quite clicking thanks to a defence that ranks top ten by DVOA and the fact that quietly the offence is also top ten. That said, the Raiders have been competitive all year and have a winning record and whilst I’m not saying they will go into Lambeau Field and win, I do fancy them to keep the game within seven.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Texans @ Colts (-1.5)

The Texans have won two games in a row whilst not giving up a sack and receiver Will Fuller actually has more receiving yards than DeAndre Hopkins, which has given the offence some more balance than they’ve had in recent years. They travel to face a Colts team who just beat the Chiefs and so this should be a cracking divisional game, although there is a ten place difference between the Colts and the Texans by overall DVOA and so with them getting points on the road I’m grabbing the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:        Texans
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Cardinals @ Giants (-2.5)

Don’t look now, but the Cardinals have won two games in a row and are travelling to face a Giants team who have come back to Earth a little after Daniels Jones’s first two games yielded wins, having faced the Vikings and the Patriots the last two weeks. There is not much between the Cardinals and Giants in terms of DVOA and so I’m finding this a difficult game to pick, particularly has home field advantage seems not to be as strong these days. In the end I’m going to fall on the home team given how young the Cardinals are and I just can’t see them winning three games in a row. Well, until tonight that is…

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

49ers @ Washington (+9.5)

Washington got their first win of the season last week as interim head coach Bill Callahan took over the team and focused on running the ball, but it is one thing to beat the Dolphins when they are in full tank mode and another when facing an unbeaten 49ers team. This is a lot of points for a home underdog, but this is also the second ranked team by DVOA facing the thirtieth and given Washington’s lack of home field advantage I’m backing the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:        49ers
Dan’s Pick:        49ers

Chargers @ Titans (-2.5)

This is one of the trickier games for me to pick as the LA Chargers have been massively hit by injuries, but the Tennessee Titans have just sat their supposed franchise quarterback having fallen to 2-4 and been held scoreless last week by the Broncos. It has been confirmed that Ryan Tannehill will get the start this week, but given the form of both teams I’m finding it really hard to come down on a side for this game. If left to my own devices I would likely just stay away but given I have to make a pick I am going to grab the points and hope that the experience of Philip Rivers wins out.

Gee’s Pick:        Chargers
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Saints @ Bears (-3.5)

As impressive as the Chicago Bears’ defence is, and they are coming off a bye week, I don’t like this line for them as the offence has not clicked at all and the New Orleans Saints’ defence has been playing well, whilst Teddy Bridgewater has been doing enough to win. I’m not saying the Bears can’t win this game, but I like the Saints to keep this one to within a field goal.

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Ravens @ Seahawks (-3.5)

The Baltimore Ravens looked good against the Bengals last week, but playing a defence whose weaknesses are right at the perfect place for Lamar Jackson to exploit and the Bengals sputtering offence might have masked some of the concerns they’d shown in the previous couple of week. In week seven they travel to Seattle to face a Seahawks team who are 5-1 for a reason, and mostly that is the efficiency of Russell Wilson. The line gives me a slight pause, but Seattle have a genuine home-field advantage and I think they are the better team – this should be a cracking game and I could well look foolish by the end of it but I’m taking the Seahawks in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Eagles @ Cowboys (-2.5)

I really don’t like this line at all as neither team are healthy or give me a huge amount of confidence with both of them having lost last week. Whilst the Eagles’ secondary got exposed by the Vikings who have one of the better receiving duos in the league, the Cowboys have struggled to move the ball through the air on offence, have injuries at receiver, and have in fact lost three straight. It’s not much to go on but I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Eagles
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

The New York Jets were another team who got their first win last week as the return of Sam Darnold made a huge difference. This week they welcome a Patriots team who continue to beat big lines despite the offence not quite clicking thanks to a league leading by DVOA defence and having played Thursday night will be well rested for this one. It was one thing for the Jets to beat a beat up Cowboys team whose form is going in the wrong direction, but the Patriots are a much tougher proposition and I’m going to back the Pats to continue their impressive run in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Apart from work eating my time, I’ve also had a somewhat terrifying memory stick failure so whilst I have rescued over 30 000 words of a novel and pretty much all of my files – I am massively behind so I’m putting up our picks and trivia and will have to try to find time to get back on an even keel during the upcoming week.

‘I’m looking at Chicago who, you will recall have retired the most jerseys (14) but what number did Walter Peyton wear so proudly for the Bears. 2 points available here.’

For once I’m feeling confident about the basic part of the trivia competition because I can see in my mind Peyton running the ball wearing number 34 – although it would be a bit embarrassing if I’m misremembering. I’m still lost on the theme though as I can’t make anything fit.

‘Well, I know the answer to this week’s question is 34 – I remember seeing hundreds of people wearing his Jersey when we went to see the Vikings get heated by the Bears in Chicago almost exactly 10 years ago (sorry Dad!).

But I’m still none the wiser when it comes to the theme. My guess this week is “Things which have nothing to do with each other whatsoever”.’

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Panthers

Bengals @ Ravens (-11.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Seahawks @ Browns (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Texans @ Chiefs (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Washington @ Dolphins (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Eagles @ Vikings (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Saints @ Jaguars (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Falcons @ Cardinals (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

49ers @ Rams (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

Cowboys @ Jets (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Titans @ Broncos (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Broncos

Steelers @ Chargers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Lions @ Packers (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

A losing week sees me did back to .500 but holding a narrow two point lead on Dan’s Dad, but there is still plenty of time for changes and Dan is not out of it, although he will be hoping not to make it a third week in a row scoring only six points.

Gee:	Week 5   7-8	Overall   39-39
Dan’s Dad:	Week 5   9-6	Overall   37-41
Dan:	Week 5   6-9	Overall   34-43

Giants @ Patriots (-16.5)

You should never say never, but I have a feeling that tonight’s Thursday night game won’t live up to the previous two as we see the New England Patriots host a New Your Giants team who got something of a reality check last Sunday. In Daniel Jones the Giants may well have a quarterback for the future, but there are still a lot of problems with the rest of their roster and this is obviously not an easy game. The unbeaten Patriots have been ominously good again this season and even though their offence has not looked at its best, and Tom Brady is beginning to look like a forty-two quarterback, it stills ranks in the top ten by DVOA. Even more scary is the Patriots stellar defence that ranks number one by DVOA, which I think is going to limit a rookie quarterback quite easily. This number of points is obviously going to make me pause but given the Pats have beaten several lines like this already this season, I can’t quite bring myself to pick the Giants. I could look very foolish tomorrow.

Gee’s Pick:       Patriots
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Week 6 Trivia

‘With the season now 5 weeks old, and the bye weeks started, the only things of which I’m certain is that the Picks game is unpredictable, and that Dan and Gee will continue to overthink my devious questions.

It was pleasing that The Dolphins didn’t lose thanks to being on a bye but Dan did wonder what the spread on them would have been for the bye. The Vikings returned to form at the Giants but sadly the Bengals did less well, going down against the Cardinals. Oh well, there’s a long way to go yet.

Right onto this week’s devious question which concerned the Carolina Panthers and asked How many rushing yards did DeShaun Foster run in the 2002 regular season?

Well, I do have a conscience and having set the question I did feel a little guilty as I heard the Random Number Generators being dusted off.

Why? Well while DeShaun Foster was expected to be the elite running back for the Panthers, but never started a regular season game due to injuries. So the answer was a big fat Zero and unsurprisingly both Dan and Gee got the same result.

Yet again we have no sign of either spotting the theme. Better luck in Week 6.

Guilt has kicked in and I’d expect to see 2 correct answers this week where I’m looking at Chicago who, you will recall have retired the most jerseys (14) but what number did Walter Peyton wear so proudly for the Bears. 2 points available here.’

I know that Dan is hurting about our half-point miss after the Seahawks won by a solitary point Thursday that sees me fall to 1-4 for picking Thursday night games, yet 3D (Dan’s Devious Dad) has fallen to 0-5 for Thursday picks but given he’s still kicking us with his trivia them I don’t want to make too much out of it so let’s move onto this week’s trivia before we start picking games.

‘How many rushing yards did DeShaun Foster run in the 2002 regular season?

I’ll allow 50 yards either way and there are 2 points for a correct answer’

Now, this is a real needle in a haystack question, and my first thought is to guess a big number but I can’t claim to be too familiar with DeShaun Foster’s career and so I’m becoming somewhat hesitant to guess big. In the end I’m going with 666 yards to amuse myself and because I’m running an unofficial who can get closer to the answer in my head against Dan who being an offense guys will likely go big.

As for the theme, looking at the answers for the entire year I’m completely lost, I see championships and expansion teams but nothing seems to fit for all of the answers so far. I’ve got nothing this week…

‘This weeks trivia answer could literally be anything – it seems so random. And as a result, I’ve used a Random Number Generator to decide on my answer. I’ll be guessing at 1039

Anyway, as for the theme, I’m going to guess at Franchise Records? I had thought it could possibly be ‘moments captured on channel 4’ from the days before Sky Sports, but this week’s question threw that out of the window!’

Falcons @ Texans (-4.5)

I have no feel for the Atlanta Falcons at all and the Houston Texans seem to be competitive without truly convincing as they have plenty of flaws. In fairness most teams in the NFL have flaws and I do fancy the Texans to win at home but this is too many points for me to lay on them.

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Bills @ Titans (-2.5)

The Buffalo Bills almost get credit for a close loss to the Patriots last week but this is a tough road game, particularly as Josh Allen has been in the concussion protocol this week. They travel to face a Tennessee Titans team who seem to be highly variable and Marcus Mariota could really struggle against a tough Bills’ defence. The Bills look like they could be starting Allen but I’m not convinced that he will have been able to prep as he needs to so I’m reluctantly backing the Titans. A stay away game if that was a choice!

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Bills

Bears @ Raiders (+4.5)

The Oakland Raiders came across the country and then flew over to the UK to take on the Chicago Bears in the Khalil Mack revenge game hosted in London at the new Spurs ground. The Raiders have hung in to get to 2-2 but there is a big difference between these two teams by DVOA and it feels like the team who arrives later in the UK have done better than those who have been here a week so even though this is a lot of points to give away, the Raiders aren’t truly at home and I don’t trust them whilst the Bears defence is scary good.

Gee’s Pick:       Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Bears

Cardinals @ Bengals (-4.5)

This pick is entirely an emotional hedge, although I also think the number is too high given the Bengals are 0-3 but I’m picking the Cardinals and hoping to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Vikings @ Giants (+4.5)

The Minnesota Vikings are suffering from the kind of disruption you might not expect from a team run by Mike Zimmer, but having watched the Vikings’ offence this week for coaching tape, whilst you can’t absolve Kirk Cousins of everything I do feel like the focus on the run is coming from the head coach and that is what could be driving the Stefon Diggs situation. That said, the for all that the New York Giants have won two games with Daniel Jones as their quarterback, they should have lost against the Buccaneers and Washington is falling apart. This is a lot of points and I could regret this, but I don’t trust the Giants so I’m going to back the Vikings to get back to something like themselves this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Patriots @ Washington (+15.5)

I want nothing to do with this game as the New England Patriots really struggled on offence last week as the Bills had the hoodoo over them, but they didn’t need Brady to win that game. The mess in Washington is systemic and stems from the ownership and front office so I very much expect the Patriots to win, but with the faltering offence of last week will they get the big win? However, Washington lost to the Giants by twenty-one points last week so I kind of have to pick the Patriots even if I don’t want to lay this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:       Patriots
Dan’s Pick:       Washington

Buccaneers @ Saints (-3.5)

This is a sneaky good game as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming of a win against the LA Rams and are 2-2 this season. I haven’t had a great feel for them as I got scared off early, but it does seem like Bruce Arians is getting there with Jameis Winston whilst Todd Bowles has already managed a big improvement to a defence that was bottom of the league by DVOA last season. The question is whether this will be enough to defeat a New Orleans Saints team who are 3-1 despite losing Drew Brees. I like the Saints in this one, but given the matchup of an improve Buccaneers defence against a Teddy Bridgewater led offence the extra half point to the Saints has spooked me. I could be massively overthinking this one but I’m playing a hunch in taking the points.

Gee’s Pick:       Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Jets @ Eagles (-13.5)

The 0-3 New York Jets come off a bye but will still be without Sam Darnold whose spleen has still not recovered from his mononucleosis and so it is not safe for him to play. That didn’t stop him from taking some reps in practice this week, but it will be Luke Falk who gets the start again. This is all a way of saying that the Jets’ preparation hasn’t been great, whilst the Philadelphia Eagles looked a lot better last week and Carson Wentz is playing well. This is a lot of points, but I really don’t like the Jets and with CJ Mosely still out with injury, the Jets defence hasn’t played well and so I’m going to risk laying another large points total.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Jets

Ravens @ Steelers (+3.5)

This is an intriguing game as the Pittsburgh Steelers got their first win of the season last week, but still are not exactly convincing whilst it would appear that there are some real questions about the Baltimore Ravens’ defence for the first time in a long while. I like the Ravens to win this game but it feels really strange for the Steelers to be getting this many points at home so I am really torn. In the end I’m going to grab the points as after a strong start against two poor teams the Ravens have come back to the pack a bit.

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Jaguars @ Panthers (-3.5)

This is a matchup of backup quarterbacks who have turned round their team’s seasons and one of them is going to get their first loss as a starter this week. I’m not at all sure which way this is going to go, but despite their top five by DVOA defence the extra half point is making me nervous and with the Jaguars seeming to find their feet I’m going to nervously grab the points. I really hate the lines this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

Broncos @ Chargers (-6.5)

The LA Chargers have battled to 2-2 despite the injuries, but basically don’t have a homefield advantage and this week welcome a winless Denver Broncos team who at least got some sacks last week and kept the game close. The Broncos have played a couple of teams close this season, but not on the road and so this leaves me in another quandary. I don’t want to back the Broncos, but this is a lot of points for an injured team I don’t trust, but having lost by picking against them last week with more points I’m going to pick the Chargers. Urgh…

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Packers @ Cowboys (-3.5)

My worry for this game is that the Dallas Cowboys offence seems to be regressing as they work Ezekiel Elliott back into the lineup after his holdout, but the Green Bay Packers offence is not quite clicking either. There is a big difference between these two team by DVOA ranking, but the Cowboys could actually run the ball on a Packers defence that has struggled against the run. In the end I’m going to take the points with Aaron Rodgers, but once again I don’t feel strongly about it.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Colts @ Chiefs (-10.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs are unbeaten for a reason, even if they did have a tough time against the Lions last week, but they welcome an Indianapolis Colts team who will still be missing Darius Leonard and TY Hilton is only questionable. This is a lot of points and the Colts have been competitive, but with their defence’s simple scheme and missing Leonard I think the Colts are vulnerable so whilst I don’t like the points, I’m picking the Chiefs anyway.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Browns @ 49ers (-3.5)

The last game of the week is my final chance to say urgh. The Cleveland Browns got back into the division race with a good win over the Ravens last week and it appears that first year head coach Freddie Kitchens is starting to find his way with this team. This week they travel to face a rested and unbeaten San Francisco 49ers team who have looked good on offence thanks to Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and whose defence is currently ranked second in the league by DVOA. I’m not saying the Browns can’t win this one, but I like the 49ers in this spot and we’ll find out over the next couple of games just how real the 49ers are.

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.