So here we are going into the final week and thanks to my best week all year I somehow have managed to take a slender point lead over Dan’s Dad going into the final week.

Gee:                Week 16   13-3           Overall   126-114
Dan’s Dad:    Week 16   7-9              Overall   125-115
Dan:               Week 16    8-8             Overall   117-123

However, not only is this an important week but it’s one of the trickiest to pick as we don’t know how teams are going to react to playing meaningless games or what teams are trying players with an eye on who they want for next year rather than performance this week. But before we get to the giant week seventeen picks there’s the minor matter of our trivia competition and after getting to the same answer via very different (and in my case insanely jammy) means we move to a somewhat deceptively simple question:

‘Who is the only NFL Player to have a Star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame?’

Now I’m sure there are others, but the only former NFL player that is working as an actor that leaps to my mind is Terry Crews so that is going to be my answer.

‘Firstly, I was convinced that I’d at least tie it up last week but that plan was thwarted by Gee’s random team generator (and a little bit of logic) in the end. This week’s is tough too… it’s got to be someone who has done something noteworthy outside of football to be on the walk of fame. My first thought was Dan Marino, but having been to the Hollywood walk of fame (and as a Dolphins fan of course) I would have spotted and remembered that if he was there. I think I’m going to go with OJ Simpson though. Little less obvious and something just tells me he’s the kind of person who would have a star.’

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-1.5)

The first one of these games is almost an archetypal week seventeen game with both teams not having anything to play for except for individuals trying to keep themselves in the league. However, the Falcons have won two games straight with pretty convincing scorelines including a fourteen-point win over the Panthers in Carolina and that is convincing enough for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:     Buccaneers

Dolphins @ Bills (-3.5)

I really don’t like this line as the extra half point tempts towards the Dolphins except they have been a bad road team all season and are a warm weather team travelling to play outdoors in the cold. When you add to that the fact that the Dolphins have only won in one of their last six visits to Buffalo and I’m going to go against my numbers and hope it doesn’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Cowboys @ Giants (-6.5)

This is a curious game in that the New York Giants are actually ranked as the better team by overall DVOA and yet it is the Dallas Cowboys who are resting players having got their playoff seeding set whilst the Giants have only won five games this season. More worrying is the fact that with their recent form there is now noise that Eli Manning will be back next season, which only delays the inevitable transition that needs to take place. Not knowing how much the important players for the Cowboys will play is making this a really hard game to pick, I hate the line and the situation, and want to stay away but as I don’t have that choice and I just don’t have this much faith in the Giants I’m going to grab the points and hope for the best.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

The Green Bay Packers don’t have that much to play for but Aaron Rodgers wants to finished the season with his teammates and having come back from behind last week they welcome a struggling Detroit Lions teams. I don’t like this line going past the -7 but the Lions have real problems on offence thanks to injuries at the skills positions and have the worst defence in the league by DVOA. My spreadsheet actually has a higher number than this and so I’m going to throw caution to the wind and back the Packers to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Jets @ Patriots (-13.5)

It would not surprise me at all if the New England Patriots do well in the playoffs, but things are not quite right with Tom Brady and for a team that often runs the ball and tries to shorten the game in week seventeen this line seems too big. The New York Jets look to have found their long term answer at quarterback, but a lot depends on how they build round him. However, for the last four weeks the Jets have at least been competitive, they beat the Bills in Buffalo and didn’t lose by more than a touchdown, which either means I am right in thinking they will keep this game within two touchdowns or the Patriots are about to get a big score ahead of going into the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Panthers @ Saints (-10.5)

This game sits squarely in the awkward pick category as the Saints are openly talking about game planning without their starters whilst the Panthers are down to their third string quarterback. Having sat Cam Newton for the rest of the season to start the recovery from his shoulder problems, Taylor Heinicke injured his elbow last week and so undrafted rookie Kyle Allen will get the start at quarterback this week, on the road, in New Orleans. I don’t have a lot of confidence in how this game will go and so I’m going to grab the points, but it would not exactly be surprising if there was a lopsided game.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Jaguars @ Texans (-7.5)

Here we are with another line that I don’t like. The Houston Texans can get up to the second seed in the AFC if they win and the Patriots falter, but they are a hard team to rely on given the quality of their offensive line and the injury to Lamar Miller. Meanwhile the Jacksonville Jaguars essentially punted the season when they sat Blake Bortles for the rest of the season and stuck to that decision, even after it Cody Kessler was only able to generate single digit points in his first two games. They have still not cracked twenty points with him at quarterback and this is unlikely to be enough to beat the Houston Texans but with a top five defence by DVOA they might well keep this game closer than eight points, which is what my spreadsheet says and so that’s where I’m going, but I can’t pretend I feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

This is one of the games with meaning for both teams as if the Chicago Bears win and the Rams lose they could get the second seed, whilst the Minnesota Vikings need to win to get into the playoffs. I’m not sure how much of their offence tricks that the Bears will want to show in this game as it is a potential playoff preview, but this seems like a lot of points to be laying by a Vikings team who have three less wins than their opponents. The Bears currently possess the league’s best defence by DVOA, and by ten percentage points at that so I think they will cause problems for a Vikings offence that has improved in recent weeks thanks to a new direction but that still has limitations. In a competitive game I’m going to back the Bears to keep this one within six points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Bengals @ Steelers (-14.5)

This line worries me slightly as it is not inconceivable that a Pittsburgh Steelers team who need a win to get into the playoffs and who are playing at home could cover this line, but I basically never lay this number of points as it is one of my guiding principles when making picks. That said part of me does worry about this game because of how banged up and poor the Bengals defence has been this season, but they’ve seemed somewhat better in the last few weeks and so I’m going to hope my usual rules hold in week seventeen.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals.
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)

If the Baltimore Ravens win they are in the playoffs and whilst they also get in if the Bengals beat the Steelers, they will not want to rely on that. However, the Cleveland Browns are no slouches and in this biggest of rivalry games I can’t see anything but a competitive game. The Ravens turned their season around with the addition of Lamar Jackson into their starting line-up but the Browns have gone 5-2 under their current coaching setup and have won three straight. My spreadsheet has this as a pick for the Ravens but I don’t like this number in this situation given how the teams have played in recent weeks and so I’m going to back the Browns to keep the game closer than seven.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Chargers @ Broncos (+6.5)

The LA Chargers still have a chance of getting a bye if they win and the Chiefs lose, but it feels likely that they will end up as a wildcard even though they have one win more than any AFC team not named the Chiefs. The Denver Broncos have nothing left to play for but pride, which explains the line which is tempting despite the problems on the offence and that might be what tips it for me. The Broncos lost their one-thousand-yard undrafted rookie Pro-Bowl running back Phillip Lyndsay last week, and so even with their home field advantage I wonder how competitive they can make this game given they have lost to the 49ers, Browns, and Raiders in the last three weeks. That said they did beat the Chargers last time they played and my spreadsheet is very clearly indicating Broncos and with this many points and in a divisional game I feel like the smart play is to back the Broncos. I could regret it and look very silly, but my turnaround was down to trusting the numbers so that’s what I’m going to do.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Raiders @ Chiefs (-13.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have something to play for this week as they can tie up the number one seed and home field advantage with a win. Despite this being a divisional game I do expect them to win against an Oakland team who have gone 3-3 in their last six games. However, the Chiefs have lost their last two games and haven’t beaten a team by fourteen points or more since week nine and so this line is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

49ers @ Rams (-9.5)

The LA Rams should be looking to rest Todd Gurley another week and trust themselves to win and get themselves a further week to get Gurley healthy for the playoffs. They welcome a San Francisco 49ers team who got two of their four wins in the last three games and have been competitive in all of them. That said this was also a three game home stand but still, travelling to face a Rams team who haven’t quite looked the same since the bye week they could keep it close. My worry is that the spreadsheet says one thing completely counter to what my natural inclination is in this game and with it being week seventeen, I’m not sue which way to lean but in the end this is just too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Eagles @ Washington (+6.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles need a helping hand as well as a win to get into the playoffs but their divisional game takes them to Washington to face a team who have struggled all season and been overcome by injuries. I think the Eagles will get their win but this is too many points for me to ignore given that Washington have made life difficult for too many teams this season. That said, it would not exactly be a surprise if the Eagles were to win by a touchdown but they have too many problems for me to predict it.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-12.5)

This is a surprisingly tricky pick given that it is a huge line, but the Arizona Cardinals have been pretty woeful this season and are bottom of the league by DVOA by quite some gap. They finish the season in the notoriously difficult to play in CenturyLink Field and the spreadsheet says that the Seahawks should cover this line and looking at the Cardinals’ results I can see why and so despite my instincts saying otherwise I’m going to back the Seahawks.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Colts @ Titans (+1.5)

The final game of the weeks is a winner gets in to the playoffs matchup between the Tennessee Titans hosting the Indianapolis Colts. I have been bullish on the Colts for a lot of the year whilst the Titans have tripped me up a lot thanks to their up and down play, but with Marcus Mariota suffering a re-occurrence of his nerve issues and questionable to play I’m going to ignore the home underdog and back the Colts to come out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

So here we go with the week sixteen weeks, but before that there’s the minor matter of our trivia competition.

‘In Week 3 the Browns beat the Jets 20 – 17, but how many days, and against whom, prior to Sept 20 is it since they had last won? As it’s Christmas I’ll allow you 25 days either way but give 3 points for an exact hit.’

So as odd as this might sound, I’m going to start with the days as I remember that apart from last season’s 0-16, the year before the Browns only went 1-16 (making it all the more remarkable that Hue Jackson kept his job) and there was real talk of them going 0-16 that season so I’m going to work on the theory that they got that solitary win in week sixteen. Counting along the calendar that gives me Sunday the 25^th of December 2016, but whilst I think there were some games on Christmas day I don’t the NFL played the full slate and I hardly think the Browns would be a prime time game so let’s say the Browns won on the 24^th of December 2016, so the Browns went six hundred and thirty-five days without a win. Now here’s the frustrating problem, I have no idea who they beat. Like none… So I’ve gone to a random NFL generator online and spun their wheel. The first team to come up were the Panthers, but I don’t like that as it would be more likely to be a fellow AFC team than an NFC team so I spun again and got the Bengals, but I think I would remember that, so once more I spin and I get the then San Diego now LA Chargers. I have no idea if that is right, but I’m sticking with the Browns beating the Chargers six hundred and thirty-five days before they beat the Jets this season.

‘Ok, I know this. I happen to know that it was a nice little Christmas present for the Browns with their precious win being on Christmas Eve 2016. Their game in week 3 was on the Thursday night, so if I’ve done my maths correctly (and I’ll be annoyed if I’ve not!), I make it 635 days between wins. And the win was against the then San Diego Chargers.’

Falcons @ Panthers (-3.5)

The Atlanta Falcons got their first win in six weeks last week and this week they visit a Carolina Panthers team who having fallen out of the playoffs last week, are sitting Cam Newton so he can start treatment on his injured throwing shoulder. On almost any previous week I would have backed the Panthers in this game, but I’m going for the Falcons in week sixteen given the comparative form and who is starting at quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Bills @ Patriots (-12.5)

The New England Patriots are very much in control of their own destiny and I’m not going to suggest they will lose to the Bills at home, but things have not been right with them for a number of weeks now and with Josh Gordon stepping away from football for the good of his mental health it doesn’t exactly look to be getting better for the Patriots offence. The Bills defence is still ranked third in the league by DVOA and that alone is enough for me to take the step of backing the Bills to keep this game within thirteen points. I just hope the Patriots usual ability to cover big lines doesn’t suddenly re-appear this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Bengals @ Browns (-6.5)

Given their comparative form I have no issue with the Cleveland Browns being favoured in this game, but six and half points feels like a little much given the way the Bengals have played over the last two weeks. The fact that the Bengals have now lost leading receiver Tyler Boyd as well as all the other receiving options does give me pause, but I don’t feel like the Browns are going to win the battle of Ohio by a touchdown. I hope I am right at any rate, even if the Browns will be supremely motivated to beat Hue Jackson.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Buccaneers @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to the Ravens last week and now must travel to Dallas to face a Cowboys teams who will be looking to bounce back from their shutout loss the week before. I’m not sure how competitive this game will be, but the line worries me as they were not at all competitive against the Colts. The Cowboys will be feeling the pressure with the Eagles beating the Rams and Washington managing to stay one game behind but this line is just that little bit too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Vikings @ Lions (+5.5)

The Detroit Lions’ up and down season continue to falter along and whilst most of their problems would seem to be on offence from injury, it is their defence that ranks thirty-first in the league by DVOA and I’m sure some questions are going to asked of their first-year head coach Matt Patricia in the offseason. It doesn’t get any easier for them this week either as they welcome a Minnesota Vikings teams who rediscovered their offence last week on the back of a renewed commitment to running the ball and scored forty points for the first time this season. In a league that never has a big sample size it is dangerous to read too much into one game, but it at least makes sense that reducing the amount Kirk Cousins is asked to do leads to a more efficient game and I like the Vikings to carry their new form into this matchup.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Packers @ Jets (-0.5)

The New York Jets made last week’s game competitive against the Houston Texans and did take a lead in the fourth quarter, albeit a short lived one. However, there are thirteen places between them and the visiting Green Bay Packers in the overall DVOA rankings and whilst this has only manifested itself in one more win this season, Aaron Rodgers is planning to play out the season with his team and even on a down year I’m going to back him in this matchup.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Giants @ Colts (-9.5)

I like the direction the Indianapolis Colts are heading in and they remain in the playoff hunt. Coming off a strong showing against the Cowboys you can see why they are favourites against a New York Giants team who have struggled all season despite their talent at the offensive skill positions. Having got shut out and lost by seventeen last week, it is not like setting this line against the Giants is an insult but the Colts themselves got shut out two weeks ago by the Jaguars and so I’m not so confident that I will predict they win by ten. I could be wrong, but this line is just that little bit too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Jaguars @ Dolphins (-4.5)

The Miami Dolphins got beat badly last week but they have also been terrible on the road losing every game bar their first against the Jets. That said, they are 6-1 at home and this week welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars who after a 3-1 start to the season have only won one game since then. The change at quarterback has not exactly invigorated the Jaguars offence and on the road I don’t expect them to set the world alight but it is still hard to have this much faith in the Dolphins. It’s not that they don’t deserve to be favourites, but this feels like too many points to be giving up for a team I don’t trust. I’m sure Dan would be very happy to see me proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Texans @ Eagles (-0.5)

This is a sneaky good game as the Houston Texans take their 10-4 record to Philadelphia to see if they can beat an Eagles team who dragged themselves back into the contest for the NFC East with their win over the Rams last week. The Eagles chances still rests on the Cowboys slipping up but they have something to play for and looked much better against the Rams last week. What I’m not sure about is how these teams will play against each other and this line is not exactly helping but their 5-2 record on the road looks to favour the Texans yet I’m not sure they are two and half points better than the Eagles, which is what this line suggests. I’m going to nervously back the home team and hope I’m not making a big mistake.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Bears @ 49ers (+3.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have won two straight and found a little something toward the end of what has been a difficult season. This week they face a Chicago Bears team who clinched their division with a win over the Packers last week and whilst there is some potential for a let down for the Bears, they are now only a game back from the Rams and so a playoff bye week is up for grabs. Perhaps more importantly, the Bears number one defence in the league by DVOA will make it a very long day for Nick Mullens. This line is really tempting as home underdogs usually are but in the end, I’m going with the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Rams @ Cardinals (+14.5)

This is a surprisingly big game for the LA Rams who have now lost two straight and have not looked themselves for weeks now. They will be looking to get right against the bottom ranked team in the league by DVOA and whilst early in the season I might have backed them to cover this line, right now I think it is way too high. The Arizona Cardinals have had a miserable season but they actually rank fifteenth in the league on defence by DVOA and fifteen point wins are not that common, especially for a team who haven’t looked right and need to rest an injured Todd Gurley.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Steelers @ Saints (-6.5)

This should be a cracking game as the league leading New Orleans Saints welcome a Pittsburgh Steelers team who got back on track last week with a win over the New England Patriots. The Saints are a really good home team but their offence has gone down a notch or two in recent weeks yet they’ve kept winning thanks to their defence gradually improving across the year. The Steelers have been more up and down and dropped a bad game on the road against the Raiders in week fourteen. I know that Ben Roethlisberger is not the same quarterback on the road as he is at home, but I this line is too much for me given the recent points output of the Saints as I think this should be a close and fun contest.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Chiefs @ Seahawks (+2.5)

We follow one cracking game with another as the Kansas City Chiefs visit Seattle to take on a Seahawks team who will be smarting having lost on the road to the 49ers last week. The Seahawks still have an edge in the NFC wildcard hunt but they can’t afford to keep dropping games even if they do play the Cardinals in week seventeen. The Chiefs come into this game with the better record and DVOA ranking, but with receivers banged up and having cut Kareem Hunt a couple of weeks ago when the video of him kicking a woman was released by TMZ, their offence has not looked the same. As strange as it might have sounded at the start of the season, Patrick Mahomes is what is making the Cheifs’ offence go right now but Seattle is a tough place to play and that is enough for me to grab the points with the home underdog.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Broncos @ Raiders (+2.5)

Out final game of the week sees one team who only fell out the playoff hunt a couple of weeks ago visiting a team who all but announced they were rebuilding at the start of the year when they traded away Khalil Mack. That move catapulted the Bears into a division win whilst I still can’t understand it for the Raiders, who may have beat the Steelers in week fourteen but crashed back to earth last week when they lost 16-30 to the Bengals. Two of the Raiders’ three wins have come at home and getting points might be tempting, but their defence ranks thirty-first against the pass and twenty-seventh against the run by DVOA and with undrafted rookie running back Phillip Lindsay heading to the Pro Bowl I think a Broncos team with twice the number of wins will have enough to see the Raiders out. This looks like it could be the Raiders last game in Oakland, which could throw a spanner in the works but I’m going to trust my numbers on this one as I can’t stay away.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Riders

With the winter solstice only five days away we go into the Sunday of week fifteen with Dan’s Dad extending his lead in the picks competition to two points, but first there’s a deceptively fiendish trivia questions to deal with.

‘We’re all rushing round getting ready for the holidays but: Which team was last in the league for rushing yards in 2017/18?’

This is not the kind of thing that just rattles round my brain, but the Bengals were pretty awful last season and it was a major point of emphasis in the offseason plus the reason we change line coach for the first time in something like twenty years so I’m going to suggest the Bengals, and even if they weren’t actually last they will be pretty damn close.

‘Difficult one this week… I don’t think either our Dolphins or Bengals will have been particularly high up the rushing rankings last year but I’m basically guessing based on whose runners I can’t name off the top of my head. I think I’ll go for Detroit, but it’s a complete guess.’

Cardinals @ Falcons (-8.5)

The Arizona Cardinals are tricky team to read other than them being bad. Two of their three wins have come on the road, but then two of their three wins are against the 49ers. This week they travel to face a four win Atlanta Falcons team who mainly win at home, but haven’t managed that in five games. You would give the Falcons the edge in this game but the Cardinals have possibly been better on the road and this feels like too many points to lay as a team who haven’t won since week nine.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Lions @ Bills (-2.5)

The Detroit Lions got a win in Arizona, but their offence has been hobbled by the injuries to Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson and this week they travel to face a Buffalo Bills team who have a defence that ranks third by DVOA. This could be an ugly game and with the Bills only needing a field goal to cover I’m going to back the home team. Nervously…

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Packers @ Bears (-5.5)

The Green Bay Packers won last week, despite Joe Philbin losing both his coach’s challenges inside the opening two minutes of the game but it is one thing to beat the badly travelling Falcons at Lambeau Field and another to travel to face Chicago and their number one by DVOA defence. With their win against the Rams last week the Bears continued to make the case that they should be taken very seriously, even if Mitchell Trubisky looked every inch the quarterback coming back from a should injury. Still, Matt Nagy has done a really good job of aggressively planning for his team and leaving Vic Fangio alone to helm a terrifying defence. The Packers have not won on the road this season and whilst I’m not saying it isn’t possible in this game, with Khalil Mack fully integrated into the Bears’ defence I don’t expect Rodgers to be able to pull of the kind of comeback performance he managed in week one. That said Rodgers has a habit of making anyone who picks against him look foolish and I can’t bring myself to do it in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Raiders @ Bengals (-2.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals managed to keep the score respectable against the Chargers in LA last week but between the poor defence and the injuries it is hard have much faith in them at the moment. The Oakland Raiders beat the Steelers last week with some help from the Steelers but their defence is in fact ranked worse than the Bengals by DVOA. Their offences may actually rank closely but the Raiders have won two out of their last four games. This is the last home game for the Bengals this season and my numbers say this is a good pick for the Bengals but on recent form I just can’t do it. I hope to be proven wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Cowboys @ Colts (-2.5)

This should be an absolutely cracking game as the Dallas Cowboys have found their formula in recent weeks thanks to the combination of a top ten defence and an offence that has really nailed down how to use Ezekiel Elliott and that was transformed by the addition of Amari Cooper even if you can debate the price they paid to do it. This week they travel to Indianapolis to take on a Colts team who bounced back from a bad loss against the Jaguars to beat the Texans last week and who have won six of their last seven games since starting the season 1-5. Andrew Luck looks like the quarterback we all thought he could be and the Colts actually rank better by overall DVOA than the Cowboys although the Cowboys have won five straight. That said, it looks like Zack Martin could be out this week and the Cowboys were pretty lucky to beat the Eagles in overtime last week and with this being their first road game since week eleven I’m going to pick a Colts team who only need a field goal to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Titans @ Giants (-2.5)

I have struggled to pick the Tennessee Titans all year and this week is no exception as they are coming off a good win against the Jacksonville Jaguars and take their 7-6 record to face a New York Giants team who have won four of their last five games. I’m not sure I’m qualified to write about the Giants’ resurgence other than to mention the form of rookie running back Saquon Barkley who is third in the league in rushing total and is averaging five point four yards per game. In fact the Giants are ranked seven places higher by overall DVOA despite being two games back by win record. The Titans have lost their last four games on the road and have just placed starting right tackle Jack Conklin on IR so I am going to reluctantly back the Giants, but honestly I have no idea what will happen in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Dolphins @ Vikings (-6.5)

The Miami Dolphins beat the Patriots last week with a last second miracle play but could fall back to earth with a bump this week as they take their five straight road losses to Minnesota to face a faltering Vikings team. The dysfunction on offence was enough to cost John DeFilippo his job as offensive coordinator and it will be interesting to see if this sparks the offence in the final three games as Mike Zimmer will hope. The Vikings currently have the last wildcard spot despite their problems but they can’t afford to drop games now. This feels like too many points to lay given the uncertainty on offence but the Dolphins road form has been awful and if Zimmer gets the running game he seeks then perhaps the Vikings can have more control of the game. That’s the way I’m leaning although I’m not entirely sure why. If I’m wrong it will cheer Dan right up.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Buccaneers @ Ravens (-7.5)

Don’t look now but the Buccaneers have won two of their last three games and didn’t exactly get humiliated by the Saints last week although the Saints won pretty convincingly. This week they travel to Baltimore to face the second ranked defence by DVOA who held a wounded Chiefs offence in a game the Ravens could very well have won. The Ravens are very much in contention for the NFC North but with a visit to the LA Chargers next week they cannot afford to lose this game or the season ender against the Browns. The commitment to running the ball since placing rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson into the starting line-up has transformed the fortunes of the Ravens and I expect them to win out in this game but this line is just a little too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Washington @ Jaguars (-6.5)

This might be a contender for least attractive game of the season given Washington’s current form and injury situation plus the Jaguars woeful season. It’s hard to see the Jaguars as this big a favourite against anyone, except that Washington just shipped forty points against the Giants. With the level of quarterback play on display this could be a truly ugly game so I’m going to back Washington based on that principle alone but it should be remembered that remarkably Washington are not out of the playoff hunt yet.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Seahawks @ 49ers (+5.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are a bad team, but they picked up their third win of the season last week and scuppered the Broncos hopes of the playoffs. Still, they welcome a Seahawks team who are finishing the season strong and who are on a four game winning streak. In fact, of their five losses this season only one of them was to a team that currently has a losing record and I fancy them to run out winners in this one. This is a lot of points, but not quite enough to make me back the 49ers, even if my spreadsheet might indicate otherwise.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Patriots @ Steelers (+1.5)

There is something rotten in the franchise of Pittsburgh who have lost three straight games, with the loss to the Raiders being particularly hard to explain. This would account for them getting points at home and that might be really tempting except that the Patriots always seem to find a way to beat the Steelers and are coming off the kind of loss that Brady and Belichick will be desperate to wash away with a win. The Steelers look like they could be without running back James Conner for a second week thanks to a high ankle sprain and I am just not going to bet against the Patriots in this situation

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Eagles @ Rams (-9.5)

Given that Carson Wentz has been ruled out of this game with a fractured vertebrae it feels unlikely that the struggling Eagles will turn round their fortunes against a Los Angeles Rams team who will be desperate to get right after their loss to the Bears last week. The line is somewhat concerning though, but this is a different Eagles team than last year, as much due to the loss of offensive coaches as it is the players, and given their beat up secondary I think the Rams could get back to winning in a big way this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Saints @ Panthers (+6.5)

The final game of the week would have been a huge matchup just a couple of weeks ago, but given the Carolina Panthers have lost five games in a row it feels like the result is much less in doubt this week as they welcome the New Orleans Saints. Still, this is a divisional game and the Saints offence has looked a little less transcendent in the last couple of weeks, which is perhaps not that surprising as their mid-season form really was remarkable. This is the third straight road game for the Saints and so the points are enough to make me pause as whilst I think the Saints will win, I don’t know if it will be by a touchdown. I could regret this as Cam Newton’s shoulder and the Panthers’ form makes me nervous, but I’m very hesitantly going to back them to a lot better than their last prime time game against the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Sing with me to the tune of the Blankety Blank theme:

‘Saturday picks, Saturday picks
Saturday pick, Saturday Picks etc.’

Yes, I am feeling distinctly out of synch with these picks so let’s get to the first Saturday games of the year that follow a really entertaining Thursday night game the I picked totally wrong…

Texans @ Jets (+6.5)

So it is perfectly logical that the Houston Texans run of nine wins came to an end last week, but a loss to a division rival who are also in contention for the playoffs is pretty understandable so I don’t want to ding them too badly. However, this week they travel to face a New York Jets team who are coming off a win and get to welcome a dome team into the elements of an open field as this is the Texans first road game since week eleven. The Texans offence relies on the run as a foundation and the Jets rush defence currently ranks twenty-third in the league by DVOA. I like the Texans to win this game but the points worry me as the only big road win the Texans have was against the Jaguars. The Jets aren’t exactly great either but if I’m getting this many points I’m tempted enough to nervously back them.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Browns @ Broncos (-3.5)

This is an interesting game for me as the Denver Broncos basically dropped out of the playoff race last week with a bad road loss to the San Francisco 49ers team but they are a better team at home. However, this week they face a Cleveland Browns team who have won three out of their last four games and who have been competitive for a lot of the season. That said, their solitary road win was against the Bengals in week twelve and they lost badly to the Texans two weeks ago. The DVOA rankings still really like the Broncos but that extra half point worries me and so I’m going to nervously grab the points and hope I’m not being too clever for my own good.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Somehow there are only three weeks of the regular season left and it’s still nip and tuck in the picks competition with Dan’s Dad taking a slender one point lead and Dan narrowing the gap to single digits with his revised strategy, but given the quality of tonight’s game I’m not sure you will care about any of that so on to the pick.

Gee:    Week 14   7-9             Overall   108-100
Dan:    Week 14   10-6           Overall   100-108

Chargers @ Chiefs (-3.5)

I think that the scheduling computers were clearly setup to improve the quality of the prime time games as this is another cracking Thursday night game that see the 10-3 LA Chargers visiting the 11-2 Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams are carrying injuries to their impressive offences and have quarterbacks in the conversation for MVP but whilst the Chiefs have a 6-4 home record in this matchup  over the last ten years, they have won the last four and I have a feeling that they will still have enough to edge this one. The extra half point make me nervous, as does the limping of Tyreek Hill but Chargers have their own problems at running back and at home on a Thursday night I’m leaning towards the Chiefs.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Week Fifteen Trivia

‘There is something special about the last knockings of a season in whatever sport you follow. There seems to be a new twist at every turn and this season’s main events are obviously the TWF Picks and Trivia competitions. With the Picks far too close to call and Dan making a late charge with some interesting strategies this will go right to the line.

I am pleased to report that as expected both Gee and Dan correctly identified the 49’ers as the answer to Which team ended last season with 5 straight wins having starting it 1-10?

And so to the run in to the end of the regular season.

For week 15 I’m going to stay in last season.

We’re all rushing round getting ready for the holidays but: Which team was last in the league for rushing yards in 2017/18?’

As winter closes in so does the NFL regular season, leaving us with fewer games and less daylight and with that in mind I shall try to get through these picks quick enough to get what I need to done during daylight finished, so on to picks and first this week’s trivia question. I should mention that Dan is sticking to his decision to pick against his instincts this week despite this failing on Thursday.

‘Which team ended last season with 5 straight wins having starting it 1-10?’

I’m pretty damn certain about this question as I remember this being a thing and me writing about Jimmy Garoppolo having an unbeaten record at the start of this season. That may not have lasted, but the answer is the San Francisco 49ers.

‘Easy one this week – I suppose they can’t all be ridiculously difficult every week! The answer is the San Francisco 49ers whose season was seemingly saved by the introduction of Jimmy G from the Patriots!’

Falcons @ Packers (-5.5)

So this week’s picks start with a strange line given that the Atlanta Falcons have managed very little this season and for some that is to do with more than just the injuries that have plagued them. This week they face a Green Bay Packers team who just fired their coach for the ignominy of losing to the now three win Arizona Cardinals. Last week’s loss was the first of the season at Lambeau Field and it seems reasonable to expect a reaction but is it enough to cover this large a line. It seems dangerous to pick it to happen after last week’s loss but I do not trust Matt Ryan outside of a dome, and in a cold Green Bay I have a number close to this one and so swinging for the fences I’m going with the Packers bouncing back.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Jets @ Bills (-3.5)

This a horrible line as neither team exactly inspires confidence and though I may well lean towards the Bills, the New York Jets actually rank a little better by overall DVOA but they haven’t even been losing productively given that Sam Darnold has missed the last three games through injury. I don’t necessary like it, but I’m going to back the home team and hope that extra half point doesn’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:       Jets

Panthers @ Browns (+1.5)

I really don’t know what to make of a Carolina Panthers team who have now lost four in a row and there are talks of Cam Newton having shoulder soreness. They may not be completely out of the playoff race now, but they can ill afford to lose against a Cleveland Browns team who lost pretty soundly against the Texans last week. The Panthers are still ranked better than the Browns but home underdogs are often pretty tempting and the Panthers are a pretty woeful 1-5 on the road. I’m hesitating on this one, which is never good so I’ll grab the points for the home team going against a poor road team and hope the Panthers don’t suddenly turn things round.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Colts @ Texans (-4.5)

The problem I have with this game is that I’m not sure which team is going to turn up as going into last week I was pretty confident in the Colts development on offence and the defence was doing enough for them to win but they got shut out by the Jaguars. Meanwhile the Houston Texans have now won nine straight and are putting themselves in contention for a bye week come the playoffs. This is the third of a three game home stand and I fancy the Texans to run out winners but this line feels big to me, or at least it would have until the performance of the Colts last week. I don’t know if the Colts will get back centre Ryan Kelly this week and in the end I have to respect the records and trajectory of both teams and so I’m nervously going with the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:       Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Ravens @ Chiefs (-6.5)

This is a really interesting matchup as it features two top ten teams by DVOA but there is still twenty-six percentage points between their overall DVOA values. The Chiefs got their tenth win of the season last week, but they gave up a lot of points to the Raiders and they can’t be happy with their receiving options given they signed just Kelvin Benjamin after he was released by the Bills. The Baltimore Ravens have won three straight since starting Lamar Jackson at quarterback who has given them something at quarterback even if it has been more to do with his legs than throwing ability. I like the Chiefs to run out winners, but the line concerns me as although the Chiefs have a really good home advantage, the Ravens have been really competitive and I can see this one being close. That said the Chiefs have won every game at home by at least a touchdown and that’s enough for me.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Patriots @ Dolphins (+8.5)

The records of these teams may say one thing about this game, but for whatever reason the Patriots consistently have problems when vising Miami and having only won one of their last five games visiting the Dolphins so I think this line is way too big. It’s more than possible that the Patriots will beat this trend and win this game, but I’m not predicting they will do it by nine points. You also have to respect Dan’s commitment to his alternative pick strategy as I think this is the first time I’ve seen him not pick the Dolphins and I don’t think this is the week to break that trend.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Saints @ Buccaneers (+8.5)

This is another big line, which this make this game a tricky one to pick. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a win against the Panthers that gives them a two game winning streak as they host the New Orleans Saints. The Saints were not themselves last week against the Cowboys and have had nine days to get over only their second loss of the season and get right. Weirdly the Saints’ only other loss this season was to the Buccaneers in week one and so this divisional game is definitely making me pause with the pick. I could regret this as the Buccaneer pass defense is not good but on the road I’m suddenly hesitant about the Saints even if I do expect them to win.

Gee’s Pick:       Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Giants @ Washington (-0.5)

So Washington are down to their third string quarterback signed a couple of weeks ago and last week lost both offensive guards in a game for the second time this season. It looks like the injuries have finally reached a critical mass for Washington, even if it does seem to have taken longer than might have been expected. This week they welcome a New York Giants team who rank better by DVOA and have won three out of their last four games. This won’t exactly help the Giants get a quarterback in the off-season but I think it does gives them a slight edge in this game and so I’m going to nervously grab the half point seeing as I do have to pick this game even if it feels like a stay away.

Gee’s Pick:       Giants
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Bengals @ Chargers (-14.5)

I want to break my own rules on this game as this line is too high because of course it is, except the Bengals have now put AJ Green on IR for the season and their defense has been rotten all year. Even the Chargers problems at home will not crop up in this one as I can’t see Bengals fans travelling in the numbers that some other team’s fans have to LA given the size of some of the road losses the Bengals have this season. My numbers say that this line is too big, but I don’t care as nothing in the losses to the Browns and Broncos since Dalton went down makes me think the Bengals can hang with a team like LA even if the line screams trap.

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

Broncos @ 49ers (+5.5)

This is a really interesting game to pick (I know but bear with me) as the Denver Broncos have a really good DVOA ranking, like fifth in the league and whilst I don’t think they are actually playing like that they have won three straight and have one of the rookies of the year in undrafted running back Philip Lindasy. They travel to face a San Francisco 49ers team who have some deeper problems than the offensive injuries as the defense is only ranked twenty-fifth by DVOA. The line is high enough to make me wonder, but with the Broncos’ pass rush and ability to run the ball I’m backing them to cover this one, although somewhat nervously.

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Eagles @ Cowboys (-4.5)

This is a huge game in terms of playoff races as the Cowboys can pretty much sew up the division if they can make the most of their momentum and beat the visiting Philadelphia Eagles whose title defense has suffered from injuries and departures, leaving their hopes of the playoffs hanging by a thread. The Eagles may have won two straight divisional games but the Cowboys will be rested and have the defense to contain an Eagles team who struggle to stretch the field in the passing game. I like the Cowboys to win this game but I’m not sure that in a divisional game that this might not be too many points to give away and with the importance of this game I’m going to back the Eagles to keep it closer than five but I could be very wrong.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Eagles

Lions @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals got a win last week against the Packers in Green Bay, but that hasn’t changed their position at the bottom of the DVOA rankings yet the Detroit Lions are closer to them than you might have expected given how they started the season. However, with injuries on offence and the trade of Golden Tate things are not going well for the Lions on offence whilst the defense currently ranks twenty-ninth by DVOA. The points are tempting as I have no faith in the Detroit Lions who have managed to confound with some wins against good teams but are 4-8 for a reason. I want to stay away from this game and for that reason and that reason only I’m taking the home underdog.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Steelers @ Raiders (+11.5)

I don’t know quite what is going on with the Pittsburgh Steelers but the combination of Ben Roethlisberger on the road with James Conner suffering a high ankle sprain means that whilst I think the Steelers will beat the Oakland Raiders, this is way too many points to hand a Raiders team who finished seven points behind the Chiefs last week. The Steelers’ defense is much better than the Chiefs, but with the Raiders getting this many points against a road team that don’t always travel well I’m going to nervously back them to keep it within twelve.

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Rams @ Bears (+3.5)

The Sunday night game should be a cracker as the LA Rams take their best record in the league to Chicago to face a Bears team who hope that the return of Mitchell Trubisky rights the ship after last week’s loss to the Giants. Both sides will feature well schemed offences and a pass rushing terror but I have more faith in the Rams to run out winners given they are further down the path with their current coaching staff. This is a really tempting amount of points and I am a sucker for a home underdog anyway, but that extra half point has me wondering if the Bears really can cover. In the end I don’t know what Trubisky will look like if he does play and so I’m going to plump for the Rams but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears make me look stupid.

Gee’s Pick:       Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Bears

Vikings @ Seahawks (-3.5)

The final game of the week sees the 6-5-1 Minnesota Vikings travel to take on 7-5 Seattle Seahawks in what should be a cracking game. The problem for the Vikings is that their offence hasn’t quite come together this year despite the addition of Kirk Cousins and their defense is not the same as it has been in recent years. The Seahawks meanwhile have got their defense playing tougher than their DVOA  ranking of sixteenth would suggest and they have also got their offense playing better with Russell Wilson playing efficiently thanks to a productive running game. I like the Seahawks in this game and although the extra half point does give me pause, I think they have been the more consistent team recently and will cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

So here we are, running straight into week fourteen with Dan’s dad and I neck and neck in the picks competition and both Dan and I failing to score points in the trivia last week. We should probably be awarding points for the weeks when Dan’s dad has stumped both Dan and I to give him the chance to win the competition! Anyway, I’m genuinely curious about tonight’s game so let’s get to it.

Gee:    Week 13   9-7             Overall   101-91
Dan:    Week 13   7-9             Overall   90-102

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5)

I am really not sure what to make of these teams. The Titans have been inconsistent all year with some good looking wins but equally baffling losses but at 6-6 still have an outside chance of a playoff spot with a strong finish. It will be too late for the visiting Jaguars who finally broke their losing streak with a 6-0 win over the Colts last week but they have a poor record visiting the Titans having lost their last four games at the Nissan Stadium and nine of their last twelve visits there. The extra half point is a little concerning but at home on a Thursday night I’ll take it and hope that the Jaguars aren’t due a win on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:     Jaguars

‘In the first of this week’s ‘opposite picks’ (going completely against my instinct) I’ll go with the Jags please!’

Week Fourteen Trivia

‘We are certainly heading into this season’s finishing strait and nip and tuck doesn’t even come close as the competition intensifies. I’m polishing my ‘picking pin’ and expecting the wheels to come off but until it happens I’ll keep breaking the plane.

Last week I posed the question about what rule change was instigated as a result of Oakland’s Lester Hayes.

Well Gee’s speculation of a dodgy Oakland tactic was closer than he might have suspected but didn’t butter any parsnips with an idea about on-field celebrations.

Dan conceded that he wasn’t familiar with this but did spot that it would have something to do with him being a Receiver.

This one is quite funny, in fact I came across this as one of the few NFL facts on QI. Lester, known as ‘The Judge’ or ‘Lester the molester’ (no no not that kind) used a product called Stickum, a glue-like substance, which he covered his hands with to aid catching. Banned in the early 80’s he is reportedly quoted as saying that ‘Without Stickum I couldn’t catch a cold in Antarctica’. It’s like the 12 inch wide cricket bat that covered the stumps. The rule was changed to close the loop hole and this is the case with Stickum.

I nearly asked about who introduced the face masks following some horrific injuries – that one I’ll leave hanging for now!

Onto week 14:

Which team ended last season with 5 straight wins having starting it 1-10?

I should really deduct points for wrong answers but not every question needs to be a stinker does it?

Happy Triv’ing’

We had a competitive Thursday night game that proved that defence can still win against one of the elite offences that have so dominated this season, but frankly it feels like once again the football aspect of NFL has to take a back seat to the management of the game. I’ll write more fully about that during the week, but the news about both Reuben Foster and Kareem Hunt makes it hard to feel enthusiastic right now. Still, there are games going ahead and so I’ll try to keep to normality for now so before I get to the pics here’s this week’s trivia questions.

‘Week 13 is a little more random but did appear as a fact in QI. I’ve checked and it holds up so:

What rule change did Oakland’s receiver Lester Hayes instigate?’

I am really struggling on this one, I would love to say that I have an idea but I’m scrambling in the dark and I’m sure I know the name but an answer won’t come. As he’s a named receiver I can’t go as far back as something to do with the early forward passes and I’m tempted by some kind of dirty block or tactic given the reputation of the Raiders during their heyday. I have no idea so going to plump for some kind of rule regarding celebrations after a touchdown.

‘I’m going to be honest, I don’t even know who the player is, so chances of me getting this one right I would say are slim to none. I’ve tried to think of something specifically that a Receiver might get pulled up for so I’ll say Offensive Pass Interference.’

Ravens @ Falcons (+1.5)

The Baltimore Ravens have found a spark in rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson that has seen the Ravens win two games in a row, and this week they travel to face an Atlanta Falcons team who season is over but for the games. The line might bite me but the Ravens have all the momentum in this one.

Gee’s Pick       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Bills @ Dolphins (-5.5)

It is interesting that the Miami Dolphins are laying this number of points after their close loss against the Colts when the Buffalo Bills are also coming in with a two game win streak of their own. I know the Bills only beat the Jets and Jaguars but this line feels a little high to me. I can absolutely see the Dolphins winning but they don’t fill me with quite this level of confidence.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:     Dolphins

Bears @ Giants (+4.5)

For me the Chicago Bears have demonstrated themselves worthy of trust over the last few weeks and going into this game they should have more than enough to beat a New York Giants team who couldn’t quite make it three wins in a row against the Eagles last week. The points are really quite tempting but not when the Bears are on such a run of form and have had a long week of rest going into this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Broncos @ Bengals (+3.5)

This one feels painfully frustrating as three and a half points is tempting, but with all that has befallen the Bengals in recent weeks, the visit of a team with the number three rush attack in the league by DVOA is the last thing our defence needs to face. The Broncos have the same record as the Bengals and so perhaps I am being overly pessimistic but I can’t see this one working out, although I could regret grabbing all those points.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Browns @ Texans (-6.5)

I have just finished watching the Houston Texans offence, which was effective in chunk plays rather than being efficient and who welcome a Cleveland Browns team who have two games straight. Whatever your views on how Baker Mayfield expressed his feeling about Hue Jackson, he has been very effective since Freddie Kitchens took over the play calling, but whether that is enough to cope with the top five Texan defence we shall just have to see. However, for me this is just too many points in what should be a really competitive game.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Rams @ Lions (+9.5)

The LA Rams come of their and travel to the Detroit Lions and this puts me in a real conundrum as I do expect the Rams to win but this is a lot of points, even if the Lions do seem to randomly put up good performances and even wins against good teams. Still, without Kerryon Johson I find it hard to see the Lions having the ball control to win this game but this number is too big for a team who have won a lot of games but not beaten anybody by ten since they played the 49ers in week seven.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Cardinals @ Packers (-14.5)

This is a huge line and given the way the Green Bay Packers have played this season it feels much too high even if the Packers are entertaining the worst team in the league. The Cardinals are actually over ten percentage points worse by DVOA than the thirty-first ranked Raiders but this is still a line that is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Colts @ Jaguars (+3.5)

This is one of the trickier lines for me in that the plus three and a half number is quite tempting as a home underdog but we just don’t know what we are going to get out of the Jacksonville Jaguars given they have fired their offensive coordinator and are starting Cody Kessler at quarterback. This might have given them a boost but with Leonard Fournette suspended after he went on the field to throw a punch last week we know that there is very little discipline in the Jaguars team at the moment. Meanwhile the Indianapolis Colts have quietly won five straight and their offence is really humming. The numbers might suggest a Jaguars pick but I can’t bring myself to do it and I just hope I don’t regret this.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

This is a similarly tricky line but for lightly different reasons that the previous game as the Carolina Panthers offence has looked really good this season but this has not resulted in wins over recent weeks. The stretch of three losses started with a blowout Thursday night loss to the Steelers, which can happen but the Panthers then lost by a point to the Lions and a field goal to the Seahawks and just can’t afford to fall further behind in the race for the playoffs. I like them to get back on track in a divisional game against a struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers team but the points give me real pause, and at some point I have to trust the numbers. Maybe the Panthers get right with a big win but right now I can’t predict them to win by more than a field goal on the road with what has been happening.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Jets @ Titans (-9.5)

This a very big number considering that the New York Jets are only ranked two places lower than the Tennessee Titans by DOVA and only 2.8% worse. It might be further confused by the up and down nature of the Titans results as in the last four games they have beaten the Cowboys by fourteen and the Patriots by twenty-four but then lost by twenty-eight to the Colts and by seventeen to the Texans. It feels like they could very well get back on track against a Jets team who are really struggling but is ten points really a realistic winning margin. It could be given their past, but I don’t think I can quite pick it to happen.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:     Titans

Chiefs @ Raiders (+14.5)

The Oakland Raiders may not be the worst team in the league by DVOA, but they are not looking to win now and that has shown up in their performance this season. However, this is a huge line and yes the Chiefs are coming off a bye, but they have also just cut running back Kareem Hunt after video of him kicking and shoving a woman was released by TMZ. I don’t expect the Chiefs to do anything other than win, and they may even be determined to show that the cutting of their star running back won’t hamper their chances but this line is just too rich for me given the circumstances.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Vikings @ Patriots (-6.5)

This looks like a great game as the Minnesota Vikings visit the New England Patriots coming off a good win against the Packers where there defence looked like it was coming back to something like its normal form. The Patriots themselves looked better in their win over the Jets last week but there are still questions about their offence and whilst I can see why they are favourites, this looks like too many points to me. That is often a foolish thing to say about the Patriots but there are enough injuries and questions about this iteration of the Patriots that I’m happy to back the Vikings to keep it with seven. Of course if I’m wrong this could ultimately lead to the blog being in Vikings colours next season!

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

49ers @ Seahawks (-10.5)

This game is a curious one to me in terms of picking as this number is not that far off what I might expect given how these two teams have played in recent weeks but it is a lot. The San Francisco 49ers have really struggled this season and having lost by twenty points to the Buccaneers last week I find it hard to see them being that competitive against a Seahawks team who seem to be genuinely pretty good and have won their last five meetings with the 49ers at Century Link field. The divisional aspect of this game does make me pause but given the relative form I’m going to nervously back the Seahawks.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Chargers @ Steelers (-3.5)

This looks to be the marquee matchup of the week with the LA Chargers heading into Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team where this always seems to be some kind of low key drama even if nothing major has occurred. Of course last week the Steelers lost to the Denver Broncos on the road but the then the Steelers are worse on the road and the Broncos are better at home so that doesn’t mean the Steelers can’t bounce back this week. However, the extra half point does concern me given that the Chargers are ranked a couple of places higher by DVOA and that is just enough to make me pick the Chargers.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Washington @ Eagles (-6.5)

This is a huge game for the Philadelphia Eagles who have to win this game to stay a game behind the Cowboys so they stand some kind of chance of catching when they face each other in week fourteen. It is very possibly too late for the Eagles given that the Cowboys look great at the moment and they also have to face the Rams and the Texans. I can see them winning this game against a Washington side who are injured and making the news for all of the wrong reason but to do so by a touchdown when it took them until the fourth quarter to get a lead against the Giants seems unlikely. I am not saying it can’t happen given the circumstances, but I’m not sure either team are what you would call good at the moment.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington