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Competition Thursday: 2021 Week Six

14 Thursday Oct 2021

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Dan closed the gap to two points in week five of our picks competition but as we turn our attention to game six, which is the first of the season to feature teams on a bye, we also have what looks to be a distinctly one-sided Thursday night game.

Gee:Week 5:  7 – 9Overall:  43 – 37
Dan:Week 5:  10 – 6Overall:  41 – 39

Buccaneers @ Eagles (+6.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles are currently ranked sixteenth overall by DVOA, but are undeniably limited on offence despite occasionally flashing glimpses of what they could be. The Eagles did beat the Panthers last week, but you would feel that even with the Buccaneers’ cluster of injuries at corner, that the Eagles’ passing game is not efficient enough for them to get the win. Even Tom Brady dealing with a thumb injury on his throwing hand is not enough for me to back the Eagles to cover given that the consensus line is +7 and I’ve seen others higher than that. The Eagles could very well make me look like a fool but for now I can’t look past the Bucs in this one, even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Survivor Competition

I don’t know how closely Dan was following the game on Sunday as it was happening, but the Patriots were made to work to get their win against the Texans but his plan to pick against the Texans just about held. However, he has transferred his plan to pick against the Jaguars, which I understand except he’s placing more faith in his Dolphins team than I have! That said, the Ravens could have easily lost against the Colts so I can’t be too confident in my own selections. Looking at the teams this week I’ve gone for the Rams against the Giants, even if they are on the road, the Giants have enough injuries and struggles this season to make me think they’ll struggle to keep up with the Rams.

Current Score

Gee: 4
Dan: 3

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:    Rams
Dan:    Dolphins

Bold Prediction of the Week

I was really struggling for a bold prediction this week, but I was eventually allowed to back the Bears to cover getting four and a half points as they host the Packers on Sunday.

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Will the NFL Step Up?

13 Wednesday Oct 2021

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I am playing with the order this week as given the news there’s only one place to start, although I will get to what I saw of the week five games

What I Heard

Dan and I discussed it on the pod, which will go up tomorrow, but the headlines and discussions over the last couple of days have understandably focussed on the racist, homophobic, and misogynistic emails of Jon Gruden that were discovered as part of the investigation to the Washington Football Team.

The NFL informed the Raiders late last week, but it seems it took the new stories in the Wall Street Journal and The New York Times revealing leaked information for Gruden to resign stating that he didn’t want to be a distraction. Given the makeup of his locker room, including the first openly gay player to play a regular season game, it is hard to see how he could have possibly led the team.

At this point it is hard to be surprised that a middle aged straight white male might have these views, though that is bad enough in its own right, but that he had the confidence to email such things over a corporate email system displays pretty amazing entitlement. Even in his short statement he hasn’t addressed the nature of what they contained but tried to defend himself.

The way the NFL has and hasn’t reacted to the contents of the Washington investigation (which haven’t been published) raises its own questions given so far the only person to be held accountable and lose their job is Gruden. The NFLPA are petitioning for all of the emails to be released and this is important because Gruden not only wrote such bigoted things but felt comfortable enough to do it to Bruce Allen’s team email. Who else in the league is enabling such behaviour and why does the NFL seem so set to protect the Washington Franchise’s owner Dan Snyder given what we know of the culture he fostered there?

I do not know what happens next, but all the inclusivity campaigns and gestures will ring hollow if the league doesn’t act. However, given the league’s history it is hard to have faith that will happen in a timely fashion.

What I Saw

I saw some of the Falcons hosting the Jets in London, and I had forgotten just how much the Spurs stadium looks like an NFL stadium when it is configured for American football. Personally, that makes me a little sad as I like the idea of seeing the game look different and knowing it is in London, but it also is a commitment to having football in the UK and so I’m not going to complain too much. I am looking forward to watching the progress of Kyle Pitts over the coming years, and that he should have a breakout game with the Falcons top two receiver not playing is obvious in hindsight. I also overestimated the progress of the Jets, which doesn’t mean the glimmers I saw in their week four win were not there, but I was naïve to think they could suddenly push on and win in London, where rookie QBs are now a grand 1-11. I’m sure Dave would have mentioned the 1-10 stat if we had recorded a pod last week and that would have saved a point in our picks competition but I should know better. The Jets came back late in the game, but 20-27 is a score that is closer than the game really was.

The next game on Sunday that I watched was the Bengals overtime loss to the Packers that finished 25-22, which includes the Packers’ Mason Crosby missing three chances to seal the game before he finally got the winning field goal. The Bengals next step is to win a game against this level of opponent and beat the teams around them, but Burrow needs to learn what risks he can and can’t get away with (he’s on a voice resting regimin having had a bruised throat that saw him taken to hospital after the game as a precaution). Still, the connection between Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase has been ridiculously productive already and if the defence keeps playing at their current level then the Bengals can hopefully stack productive quarters of the season together. I’m not saying playoffs, but there is at least some things for fans of the Bengals to base hope on. As for the Packers, they might not quite look like the team of the last two seasons, but they’re 4-1 so it’s hard to complain too much and you have to assume they will be in contention later in the year.

I don’t feel like I got the best of the Cardinals this weekend, but that was in part due to the play of the 49ers defence yet the Cardinals ground out a 17-10 win to maintain their unbeaten start to the season. The training staff were working on Kyler Murray’s arm in the fourth quarter, which obviously didn’t help the Cardinals but the 49ers’ defence played well and gave them a chance to win. Unfortunately, Trey Lance demonstrated why Jimmy Garoppolo was the starting quarterback for the 49ers until he picked up a calf strain as whilst Lance looked dangerous running the ball, he is a raw passer with only one speed of delivery and so the 49ers struggled against the Cardinals top five ranked defence by DVOA. I’m not sure that the Cardinals are the best team in the league, but they have established themselves as contenders so far this season and the question going into the second quarter of the season is can they maintain this challenge in the NFC West.

Probably the actual best team in the NFL right now are the Buffalo Bills, who apart from being the number one ranked team by DVOA, handed out a 38-20 beating of Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have real problems this season as they still are the number one ranked offence by DVOA, but they are also the last ranked defence and that combination doesn’t make for winning football. Yes they are missing defensive tackle Chris Jones and pass rush is a real problem, but for all they rebuilt their offensive line in the offseason, right now it’s the defence that’s letting them down. The Bills put pay to the idea of this being just another game by running Josh Allen eleven times, and right now the Bills look like the team to beat in the AFC while it’s hard to see the Chiefs challenging that unless a lot of things improve quickly.

What I Think

I am treating the first five weeks of the season as the first quarter, and teams are beginning to settle into some tiers. That the Jets, Texans, Jaguars, Giants and Lions are in the bottom tier is hardly a surprise, but to see the Dolphins with only one win is a genuine surprise. I knew the Colts had a difficult run into the season with Carson Wentz, but to see them also with only one win is also a bit of a surprise.

In the middle tier, there are a lot of teams who could go either way. The Broncos have to prove that they are more than their 3-0 start against struggling teams, and the 49ers are wrestling with health and starting quarterbacks again. I wonder if the Steelers’ win in week five is a blip or if they are going to drag themselves back into contention and I’ve already mentioned the Bengals positive start.

As for the top teams who are over one win above five hundred, the Buffalo Bills weren’t a given but it’s not that surprising that they are 4-1, nor is it a surprise to see the Buccaneers get to four wins despite their slew of injuries at cornerback. The Ravens have not always looked pretty but are competing as always. It’s perhaps not a surprise that the Cowboys are top of the NFC East, but with the development of their defence they have to be considered as potential challengers in the NFC and I wasn’t expecting that. I don’t think anyone predicted the Cardinals to be unbeaten through five games and they are probably the biggest surprise in a tough division as right now they have a one game lead on the 4-1 LA Rams. You could see the potential of Mathew Stafford in McVay’s system, but it has very much lived up to expectations so far in LA. Finally, in the AFC part of LA the Chargers have also got off to a fast start under Brandon Staley and now it’s just a case of if they can build on this momentum or if the things that seem to so often go wrong for the Chargers resurface.

What I Know

I am looking forward to hearing about Dan’s experience at the Spurs stadium this weekend and as ever, there are plenty of questions at stage of the season. I’m looking forward to getting back to football, but we can’t take our eyes of the governance and the wider issues of the NFL.

What I Hope

I truly hope that the Dolphins are inspired by Dan’s presence in London and he gets to see a win, or even just Tua return and play well. I want no repeats of him having to witness a shutout in person.

2021 Week Five Picks

10 Sunday Oct 2021

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It was an interesting start to the week five games on Thursday night with the LA Rams managing a nine-point win against the Seahawks in Seattle despite a mixed performance from Matthew Stafford and Geno Smith leading the Seahawks on a ninety-three yard touchdown drive after he had to come into the game for the injured Russell Wilson. It really was a strange game that if anything saw the defences of both teams win out in the first half, and Stafford not quite connecting on his passes. However, the Rams kept pushing at it and eventually started to hit the long ball, like when Stafford connected with DeSean Jackson for a sixty-eight yard year completion but it was Robert Woods who after a quiet start to the season was fed the ball the most in the passing game finishing with twelve catches for one-hundred and fifty yards. Having gone into the half with a lead, the Seahawks struggled in the third quarter and with Wilson’s injury never were quite able to challenge the Rams again despite Smith’s competent display as the backup quarterback. The Seahawks look like they will be the first team to fall properly out of the playoff hunt in the AFC West given the losing record and that Wilson will be out for weeks as he recovers from the surgery on his finger, while there are questions about the Rams defence but they will definitely be pleased with the early returns on the Stafford trade.

It feels like I got a bit lucky on the first pick of the week, and I’ve already written up the London game so now it’s time to get into the rest of the week five games.

Early Games:

At the risk of being self-interested, the most interesting of the early games to me is the Green Bay Packers taking on the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are an unexpected 3-1 on the back of a top five defence by DVOA and an offence that is doing enough. Rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase has looked every bit the first-round pick despite the rough pre-season and Joe Burrow hasn’t just returned from his knee injury but is scrambling and looking to build on the promise of his rookie season. I’m still not totally convinced by the offensive line, but Jonnah Wilson has been healthy and getting some plaudits at left tackle. However, the Bengals did make a little bit of a meal of beating the Jaguars last week and face their sternest test of the season as they welcome the Packers who may well rank seven places belove them by overall DVOA, but Aaron Rodgers is as dangerous as ever and the offence is top ten by DVOA. Apart from the strange loss in week one, the Packers have looked good for the rest of the season and with Rodgers at the helm I find it hard to predict a Bengals win, but it has the potential to be a cracking game and I do like getting the points at home.

Points from the rest:

  • The Vikings have had one of the weirder starts to the season losing to the Bengals and a Cardinals team who look like serious contenders so far this season. Their solitary win of the season came against the Seahawks before they lost to the Browns last week, but the division rival Lions should give them an opportunity to get back on track.
  • The Steelers are stuck in the twenties in all three phases of the game by DVOA ranking, and this week face a 3-1 Broncos team who have enough injuries (including a concussion for Teddy Bridgewater that means his questionable to start) that I think I’m taking the Steelers at home. Though for a franchise that I always respect there are a lot of problems in Pittsburgh right now.
  • The Dolphins season has gone horribly, with everyone questioning the decision to take Tua Tagovailoa over Justin Herbert last season, and a trip to face the Buccaneers is not really what they need to get back to winning ways. The Bucs have enough injuries at corner that I’m going to take the ten and a half points, but the Dolphins must hope that Tagovailoa can show something once he gets off the IR list but it’s going to be a while before that happens.
  • The Saints have been so up and down this season, proving that even Sean Payton can’t win with every quarterback. The Washington defence has not lived up to expectations, but Taylor Heinicke has given enough of a spark at quarterback that the Football Team are 2-2 and I’m not sure they should be getting points to this version of the Saints at home.
  • The Carolina Panthers could not keep up with the Cowboys last week, but the trade for Stephon Gilmore shows they are committed to this season and the defence so if the offence can keep doing enough they hope to keep the pressure on the Bucs in the NFC South. The Eagles have shown flashes of potential but have not been consistent and whilst the points scare me and the numbers point in the other direction, I can’t back them on the road based on a week one win against the Falcons
  • The Patriots take on a Texans team who are trying to ape the Patriots success, but are at the very beginning of the process and are down two starting quarterbacks for very different reasons. Poor Davis Mills was never meant to start this season, and it is hard to see anything but a Pats win in this one, even if this is a lot of points.

Packers @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Lions @ Vikings (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Broncos @ Steelers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Dolphins @ Buccaneers (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Saints @ Washington (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Eagles @ Panthers (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Titans @ Jaguars (+4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Patriots @ Texans (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Late Games:

There are two interesting late games this week, so it is kind of hard to pick a best matchup.

The Cleveland Browns have kept rolling even if Baker Mayfield is dealing with an injury in his non-throwing shoulder that is limiting his play, but a stellar defence is keeping them in games, but will they have enough to limit a Chargers offence who looked very good as they ran out easy winners over Las Vegas last week. I feel like I must go with the Chargers at home right now, but the Browns could very easily win this one.

The Arizona Cardinals are the sole unbeaten team left in the league and welcome a 49ers team who are starting rookie quarterback Trey Lance for the first time thanks to another injury to Jimmy Garoppolo. Going against the sixth ranked defence by DVOA is a tough first start for Lance, and on the road it will be interesting to see what game plan Kyle Shanahan has in place for his rookie quarterback. For some reason I like getting the points in this game, and I am definitely watching this game as I look to fix the huge oversight of not having watched the Cardinal yet.

Points on the Rest:

  • The Bears have finally named Justin Fields as the start after a much better showing last week, which was helped by a game plan that actually looked designed to take advantage of his skill set. However, the Raiders will prove a tough opponent even if they couldn’t find their way on offence until too late to really challenge the Chargers last week. I expect the Raiders to win, but I wonder about the points total.
  • The Giants against the Cowboys could be a good contest if things break right, with quarterback Daniel Jones ranking tenth by DVOA. However, the Cowboys look to have found enough on defence to throw themselves into the elite of the league with a competent defence to compliment the flying offence with Dak Prescott showing no signs of issues coming back from his ankle injury of last season.

Bears @ Raiders (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Browns @ Chargers (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Giants @ Cowboys (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

49ers @ Cardinals (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Sunday Night Football:

Bills @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The matchup of the week has top billing Sunday night as the Buffalo Bills trying to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. The talk out of Buffalo is that this is just another game, but it’s hard to see how that can be the case when the Bills are trying to push for the Super Bowl and are taking on the team that beat them in the conference championship game last season. Josh Allen may not have been able to sustain the numbers he put up last season, but having scored forty points for the last two games he must be looking at the Chiefs’ last ranked defence by DVOA with a real sense of opportunity.

The Chiefs are not suddenly a bad team, but the offence has not always been able to overcome the problems on defence this year, yet they will still be the toughest team the Bills have faced all season. I’m not sure what to make of either team just yet, but I am very much looking forward to watching this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Monday Night Football

Colts @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Colts got their first win of the season last week, but it’s hard to trust them coming into this contest with a 3-1 Ravens team who as usual are there or there abouts. Thanks to the vagaries of the AFC South the Colts are only one win behind the division leaders despite the poor start that may not have sunk them yet, but the Ravens are top ten by DVOA yet again thanks to the usual combination of tough defence and diverse running attack. I wonder if on Monday night the Colts can make this a contest but it’s hard to see anything other than a Ravens win at this point.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

New York Jets @ London Falcons

10 Sunday Oct 2021

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I don’t know if it just because of everything else I’ve been doing but it feels like it’s been a slightly understated build up to the return of the NFL to London. The really odd thing for me is I’ve been talking to Dan about really looking forward to watching these games at the Spurs stadium, as if the ones in 2019 didn’t happen, which I guess is a function of there being no London games in 2020. I am looking forward to finding out what Dan makes of the stadium when he goes next week, but let’s focus in on the early early game that is kicking off our week five Sunday where the Atlanta Falcons adopt London as their temporary home.

Jets @ Falcons (-3.5)

‘Could not be more Falcons if I tried’

So I know which way Dan is going, and I look at the number and the situation and I simply do not agree. That doesn’t mean that I am right, but the Falcons will be without their number one and two receivers in Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. Right now the Falcons rank thirty-second by DVOA, a massive 20.4% behind the Jets even if they are only ranked two places above them. It might be because I saw the Jets win their first game last week, but there were definite glimmers of progress in this young roster, and Zach Wilson made some lovely throws although I think he could get himself into trouble at times as he’s not afraid to trust his arm. Still, I’ve seen nothing from the Falcons that makes me think that they should be giving up more than a field goal in points so I’m going to grab the points and hope not to be disappointed.

Gee’s Pick:     Jets
Dan’s Pick:     Falcons

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week 5

07 Thursday Oct 2021

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Dan and I had matching 8-8 records in week four, so I maintained my five-point lead, but I’m still frustrated at some of my picks knowing that the continuations of so many unbeaten or winless streaks was likely to end and yet still not fully taking that into account. We’re also beginning to get an idea of which teams are more trustworthy than others so let’s take a look at the start of week five.

Gee:Week 4:  8 – 8Overall:  36 – 28
Dan:Week 4:  8 – 8Overall:  31 – 33

Rams @ Seahawks (+1.5)

There can be no complaints about the quality of the Thursday night game this week as we get the mouth-watering NFC West contest between the LA Rams and the Seattle Seahawks. I’m very much looking forward to watching the game but feel much more ambivalent about having to make a pick with this line. The Rams are coming off their first loss of the season and I’ve even heard some suggest that they are a front running team this season. They certainly have taken a step back on defence under Raheem Morris but they also have the second rank offence by DVOA with whole new sections of the playbook unlocked by Matthew Stafford’s arm.

The Seahawks on the other hand have kept themselves in the race for the division with a 2-2 record, but a top five offence has been paired with a defence that ranks twenty-fifth by DVOA and having not watched a full game of theirs yet this season I am just not sure how they will fare in this game. The Seahawks have to play three of their opening five games on the road and with the crowds back in Seattle for this contest, I can see the upset, and it is always hard to go against Russell Wilson. but the way season has gone so far has me going with the Rams. I just don’t feel confident about it

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Survivor Competition

I made the mistake of backing the up and down Saints last week and it yielded my first loss of the season whilst Dan picked up another point by going against the Texans with the Bills, a tactic he’s repeating this week but this time with the Patriots on the road against the Texans. I can see where he’s going with that one, but as usual I will try not to simply ape Dan’s pick and so  I’m going for the Ravens against a Colts team that I don’t trust, even if they are coming off their first win of the season.

Current Score

Gee: 3
Dan: 2

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:    Ravens
Dan:    Patriots

Who Gets What Chances?

06 Wednesday Oct 2021

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In any other year I would writing that we were past the quarter pole of the season, and it was time to take stock, but that is not quite true with the extra regular game we now have. I am intending to treat the first five games as the opening block (roughly 29% if you’re determined to be overly precise) and then take the rest of the season in four game blocks. I only mention his because despite a respectable 8-8 week picking games, I am definitely annoyed with some of my pics as we had five winless and five unbeaten teams going into week four and that was never sustainable. I should have known that. We now have just a single unbeaten team in the Cardinals and two winless franchises in the shape of the Lions and Jaguars but as usual, before we get too far ahead of ourselves let me run you through what I watched in week four.

What I Saw

Having watched the Bengals win and correctly picked the Jags to cover on Thursday night, I had some flexibility in the games I watched from the weekend but given the irresistible narrative of Tom Brady’s return to New England with his Super Bowl winning Bucs team let’s step out of the constraints of chronology and start with the Sunday Night game.

Bruce Arians and Tom Brady were able to eek out a 19-17 win against a Patriots team that are rebuilding but look to be heading towards a familiar formula. To some there is no such thing as a good loss, but the Patriots defence constrained the Bucs offence, though the absence of both Rob Gronkowski and Giovani Bernard definitely aided the Pats as Brady missed two of his better short area receiving targets. However, Mac Jones continues to be the 2021 rookie quarterback with the most early success and certainly doesn’t look lost leading the Patriots offence. In fact, given there was a minute on the clock it was somewhat surprising that Belichick decided to try a fifty-six-yard field goal with Nick Folk who came into the game dealing with a knee injury to his plant leg. In the aftermath I’ve heard people talk of different models giving different answers on the win percentage call on going for it on fourth and three as opposed to kicking the field goal so it might not be that clear cut, but a minute is a long time to give Brady to get into field goal range himself. This is something Belichick would know all to well, but from the head coach who noticed the Seahawks in turmoil and left the clock running in a Super Bowl, it does surprise me a little that he didn’t go for it. It might not be the rookie display that Justin Herbert had last year, and it is too early to be totally sure, but the initial signs are good that the Pats have found their next quarterback and whilst that might not be what the fans in New England expect if the team only win seven to nine games this season, it’s a positive place to build from.

As for the Buccaneers, the injuries are really piling up in the secondary with Richard Sherman pressed into more service than would have been expected given he’s only just joined the team. As for any NFL team, a decent percentage of your success is determined by injury luck, particularly if you have clusters at a particular position. Through four games the Bucs have looked every bit the Super Bowl champions they are, and Brady is still not showing any signs of falling off, but with thirteen games to go there is a lot of time for things to change for the worse as the corner back injuries pile up. So far, so good. The Bucs just hope there’s no so what caused by a losing streak in their future.

I’m now going to jump back in time Sunday to the other game I watched, which when I learned that the Jets had won their first game I had to take a look, particularly as I don’t think I’ve watched the Titans yet (makes mental note that I really ought to track which teams I watch). This game ended up in an overtime decided by a field goal made for the Jets and a forty-nine yard miss by Randy Bullock that saw the final score as 27-24. The game started as a tight contest where the Titans couldn’t score touchdowns and so kicked three field-goals as they clearly missed receivers AJ Brown and Julio Jones. Worse still, rookie quarterback Zach Wilson found a bit of groove and led a touchdown scoring drive in the second quarter, so the Jets went into half time only two points behind. Despite Derek Henry continuing his high-volume production the Titans fell behind in the fourth quarter and even though they tied things up at the end of the fourth quarter, eventually lost in overtime.

For the Titans the loss is part of a patchy start to the season that thanks to the state of the AFC South sees them top of the division at 2-2, but a loss to the rebuilding Jets is a warning sign that things far from where they would have expected. The Titans are currently ranked twenty-seventh by overall DVOA, which is pretty impressive for a team leading a division. They face the even worse Jaguars next week but welcome both the Bills and then the Chiefs in the following two weeks so they need to improve quickly if they are to solidify their hold on the division and do something in the playoffs, which was surely their plan coming into the season.

As for the Jets? There were bits of defence that showed some definite promise, and whilst the offence is ranked a troubling thirty-second, this was always a big project and Wilson threw some nice long passes and didn’t look too lost in this game. I still thing there’s a way to go but four games into a new coaching regime and there could well be glimmers of hope for the Jets. Just don’t get too excited yet, and for the record, I prefer the uninforms they just stopped using again, but it appears for this franchise at least the uniform go in cycles.

The final game I watched this week was the Las Vegas Raiders vising the LA Chargers in the transient franchise bowl. Unfortunately for me in the picking competition the Raiders were pretty comprehensively beaten 28-14 despite the fourteen-point rally in the third quarter. The Raiders were held scoreless in the first half and were never able to get the run game going as the Chargers defence held them in check. It felt like the Raiders defence was doing an okay job of slowing down the Chargers offence, but in the end the Raiders were outgained by one-hundred and sixty-seven yards and solidly beaten. In fact, right now, the Raiders are in the strange position of having their defence rated higher by DVOA than their offence, but you would expect that to correct as we get further into the season. I shall repeat my boring but relevant mantra of it still being early and with both teams at 3-1 they are part of a three way tie at the top of the AFC West that sees the 2-2 Chiefs bottom of the division. I don’t think this is a terrible result for the Raiders, but it does feel like thanks to the early returns of the Brandon Staley hire that the Chargers have a higher ceiling. Let us see what the next five games bring.

What I Heard

At the risk of boring everyone by returning to Tom Brady (I’m sure Dan will be up for not discussing Brady at all on next week’s pod), I found it really interesting listening to Peter King’s podcast that Brady and the other backup quarterbacks did extra film study this week, deliberately going back years to see what Belichick did against big name quarterbacks like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees etc as they were sure that Belichick would have wrinkles that you wouldn’t’ find in the last few games.

What I Think

I’m up against the clock a little this week (what’s new there?), but there’s a couple of things I want to discuss.

It’s been interesting listening to people talk about their takeaways from the early season and as ever quarterbacks feature heavily in that discussion. There was some praise that having traded for Sam Darnold in the off-season, and whilst it is obvious he needs a certain amount of structure, the 3-1 start for the Panthers at least says there could be a level of success with Darnold as the quarterback in Carolina, even if the Cowboys beat them by eight points this week.

However, the idea of how many chances a quarterback does or doesn’t get has been on my mind since the start of the season. I’ll start with a comment from someone I know:

‘I’m heartbroken that my team decided to replace our legendary quarterback

with a ****ing ****-bag ***** and that’s why I won’t be watching any games this year.’

The quarterback in question is Jameis Winston and one of the reasons this discussion stuck in my mind has nothing to do with his up and down play on the field over the course of his career, which has continued this season with the Saints. I remembered the, ‘character issues’ from when Winston was drafted, but I did not remember him settling a lawsuit with a woman who accused him of rape. He was drafted after my first season blogging about the NFL, but I didn’t write anything in the off-season or about the draft so I have no way of checking the receipts, just the vagaries of my memory and so it was really jarring when it came up.

You would like to think that if such a thing took place today that it might have more affect but given the record of college sports I wouldn’t like to bet on it. There is a genuine discussion to be had about justice, reform and punishment, but what penalty did this man actually face? There’s been talk that he’s a different player and a more mature presence as well as the charitable work he did in Tampa. That is fine, but he also was suspended in 2018 for three games for alleged sexual assault on an Uber driver who didn’t press charges but did release a statement after Winston apologised for his behaviour. Again, this has gone away and what has been said? It would be one thing if he came out having genuinely engaged with the issues, shown contrition, and tried to work with advocates and charities to affect change, but there’s been no such effort that I’m aware of.

I own my own silence on this. I cannot double check from when Winston was drafted, but 2018 is too recent for me not to have the facts to hand. It’s not like I have any power in this situation, but I know people affected by sexual violence and by the statistics you do too. Even if no one has felt ready to confide in you, someone you know has something ranging from sexual harassment to an actual assault.. We can’t change this if we just blindly allow certain perpetrators to get away with it because they have a skill or talent that is valuable to someone. Even if a perpetrator can never truly atone for what they did, they should spend the time trying to make amends.

What I know this week is that there is no segue from this topic to the rest of my usual mid-week football posts.

I don’t actually think there should be. You might be feeling jarred, but I promise that is intentional.

Sports can be a power for good but also is a reflection of society because it is a part of society. I am wary of lionising people who just happen to have the right level of talent to be very good at sport. They are still people. I have also written before that it’s important not to other those who perpetrate such crimes. Not to excuse what they have done, but because the truly scary thing is they are not monsters but peope. They too have gifts and troubles. No one commits such crimes should get a pass whatever talent the market has decided is desirable enough to overlook such things, a formula that too often gets skewed by the money in sports.

I don’t have the answers, but at the very least I can be thinking about the questions and make sure such matters aren’t ignored.

2021 Week Four Picks

03 Sunday Oct 2021

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I was ill enough during the week to drive a coach and horses through my blog schedule for the week so I have a large number of things to cover in a single post so I guess I will be going broad but shallow this week.

I extended my lead over Dan with a decent week of picks after a poor week two so let’s see if I can settle into a system or if it’s going to be a week to week season.

Gee:Week 3:  12 – 4Overall:  28 – 20
Dan:Week 3:  8 – 8Overall:  23 – 25

The Thursday night game saw the Bengals win a game 24-21 having gone in at half time down two touchdowns having scored nothing. Until recently that would have meant a loss but there does seem to be something different about this year’s Bengals. I’m not suddenly pencilling them into the Super Bowl, but Joe Burrow is reminding everyone why people were excited about him and to get this win with the injuries in the secondary on a short week is a good step forward. As for the Jaguars, they obviously had a good first half, but they look a ways away from winning regularly and it could take some time. It’s too early to truly judge Urban Myer as a coach, but it has been rough early and this was always a long term project so it might not get better for a while. You can also see given Myer’s offseason moves and some of his comments why there is already speculation.

Survivor Competition

Dan got his first point on the board this week with the selection of the Cardinals going against the Jags whilst I would still be standing in a standard survivor pool so let’s see both how long I can keep that going and if Dan can catch me. I’m plumping for the Saints at home for the first time this season against a Giants team who have injuries and a troubled start to the season. Dan is going for Bills to beat the Texans which seems a solid selection to me!

Current Score

Gee: 3
Dan: 1

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:    Saints
Dan:    Bills

Bold Prediction of the Week

My bold prediction for this week was to take the Detroit Lions getting their first win on the road against the Chicago Bears. It’s certainly bold, and I’m not entirely sure it won’t happen either, but let’s see.

Early Games:

I’m still at the stage where I’m seeing most of the games as having something interesting but in the interests of keeping it short, I’ll cover what I can in a brief manner.

The matchup of the early games for my mind is the Carolina Panthers visiting the Dallas Cowboys to put their unbeaten record on the line against the 2-1 NFC East leaders. This should be a great game given how well the two teams are playing, particularly as the line is very much leaning to the Cowboys, while the Panthers are the number one team by DVOA and are both eight places and 18.5% higher than their opponents. The Cowboys have competent defence this season to go along with an explosive passing attack, which should be a really interesting matchup against the league’s top defence by DVOA. I think you likely lean Cowboys to win the game as I’m not that convinced by Sam Darnold and the Panthers are also missing Christian McCaffery with a hamstring problem, but it still should be a cracking game and the Panthers could well spring a surprise.

Points from the rest:

  • The Falcons got their first win last week but are not convincing yet so is this a game where Washington can get right after a difficult start to the season or will their problems continue on the road.
  • The Bills are understandable favourites against the Texans, but 16.5 is a huge number of points to lay so whilst I doubt rookie quarterback Davis Mills can get his first win on the road, he didn’t look that bad last week and I wonder if there is a sneaky cover to be had here.
  • The Bears offence was woeful last week, and the questions are understandably on the coaches at this point. The Lions might be viewed as a get right team but equally, this could be a game that’s a big trap for the Bears, particularly as these two teams are right next to each other in overall DVOA.
  • The Miami Dolphins have had a rough start to the season, but the Colts have been even rougher and starting a quarterback with two sprained ankles and limited time with his new team in the pre-season doesn’t inspire confidence. At this point, a first win is a must for the Colts, but a top ten defence by DVOA might be enough for the Dolphins to deny them.
  • This is the other cracking matchup in the early games that in another week would have been featured. The Browns are the number two team by DVOA and are heading to take on a Vikings team whose record is probably worse than their performance. This should be a cracking game, well worth a watch and whilst I understand the Browns being favoured, the Vikings getting points at home looks a good selection to me
  • I don’t think the Giants are getting the answers they were hoping for about Daniel Jones thanks to a combination of coaching and injuries, but there are wider problems for this franchise. It’s hard to see them beating the Saints, even if Jameis Winston has shown us the usual high and lows of his play dispite now having Sean Payton as his coach.
  • The New York Jets have shown glimmers of what could be, but it was already a mutli-year rebuild project before the injuries started and after a shut out they will be desperate to do better at home against the Titans. The Titans are not a good team, but should have enough to win this one, but I’m not sure that includes winning by eight.
  • The Chiefs are another team who’ve had a rough start to the season, which is unusual for Andy Reid who has an impressive record in September but the Chiefs’ defence is rooted to the bottom of the DVOA rankings and even with Patrick Mahomes you can’t outscore that. However, the Eagles started picking up injuries and quarterback Jalen Hutrs needs to be more consistent passing the ball before the Eagles can truly start to compete and so I find it hard to believe they will win this game.

Washington @ Falcons (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Texans @ Bills (-16.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Lions @ Bears (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Panthers @ Cowboys (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Colts @ Dolphins (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Browns @ Vikings (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Giants @ Saints (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Titans @ Jets (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Chiefs @ Eagles (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Late Games:

There’s a couple of intriguing games in the late slot but the pick for me once again has to feature the LA Rams, this time hosting the also unbeaten Arizona Cardinals. The Rams have been explosive on offence and good enough on defence, which is interesting as when you start comparing these two teams’ DVOA rankings the Rams are ranked first in offence, but the Cardinals are top ten in all three phases of the game and are only 0.3% worse overall. I’m not sure if the Cardinals can win the game on the road, but this looks to be a cracking game and I think there’s a decent chance the Cardinals can keep this to within six.

Points on the Rest:

  • The Seahawks have not quite come together yet and will be hoping to peg back the 49ers in their bid to stay in the race for the play-offs. The 49ers have not entirely convinced either so this should be an interesting demonstration of where these two teams stand.
  • The unbeaten Denver Broncos host the Ravens this week in their first true test of the 2021 season. The early DVOA ranking are somewhat volatile as they don’t have all the opponent adjustments factored in, so I totally understand why the line sees the Ravens as the better team but I’m curious to see how this plays out on the football field. It’s certainly not beyond Vic Fangio to scheme up a defence capable of stymieing the Ravens’ multi-faceted rush attack as well as their passing game, but can Teddy Bridgwater maintain the Broncos offensive success against the Ravens defence?
  • The Steelers look to be in trouble with the offence looking how it did at the end of last season and the defence struggling against the Bengals last week minues TJ Watt. There are still doubts about the Packers after their opening loss of the season and how the defence has looked, but a good win here would further settle some of those anxieties and I suspect that is what will happen, even if you should never count out Mike Tomlin’s Steelers.

Cardinals @ Rams (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Seahawks @ 49ers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Ravens @ Broncos (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Steelers @ Packers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Sunday Night Football:

Buccaneers @ Patriots (+6.5)

From a narrative point of view the undisputed game of the week is the return of Tom Brady to New England with his Super Bowl winning Buccaneers. Things have not gone perfectly for the Bucs this season, particularly as they have been struggling to defend the pass and were fairly straightforwardly beaten by the Rams last week. However, their offence has looked good and there is a solid 31.8% between the teams in overall DVOA, which accounts for them laying six and a half pints. Ordinarily getting this many points at home would be a no brainer selection of the Patriots, but even with the selection of Mac Jones looking to have provided the long-term successor to Brady at quarterback for the Patriots, there is still a lot of development for the Pats to go and whilst I wouldn’t bet against them being in the playoff hunt by December, I’m not there with them right this second. Mind you, I would not exactly be surprised if Belichick makes me regret this pick come Monday morning either…

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Monday Night Football

Raiders @ Chargers (-.3.5)

This should be a cracking divisional game to finish off the week as the unbeaten Las Vegas Raiders head over to LA to face a Chargers teams coming off an impressive win against the Chiefs last week. However, right now the Raiders’ defence ranks eleventh by DVOA so might be able to do a better job against Justin Herbet than the Chiefs managed. Derek Carr has been playing better than the Vegas offensive ranking of seventeenth might indicate and the Chargers have not demonstrated that they are a defensive monster just yet. I don’t have a strong lean in either direction on this one so I’m grabbing the extra half point for a pick, but I am really looking forward to watching this game.

Gee’s Pick:       Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2021 Week Three Picks

26 Sunday Sep 2021

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Week three had a subdued start with the Panthers beating the Texans in Houston 24-9. It was always going to be a tough job for rookie quarterback Davis Mills starting for the Texans for the first time given that he only had eleven starts in college. It wasn’t that Mills was bad, but the Panthers defense came into this game with ten sacks in two games and once again got a lot of pressure with four sacks and nine quarterback hits. Even though Mills didn’t turn the ball over and completed a tick under 68% of his passes, there was not a lot of time to get the ball down field and combine that with an anemic running attack and the nine points the Texans scored is pretty understandable. The Panthers were not exactly that spectacular either though, and I left this game feeling distinctly whelmed by Sam Darnold who does look better than he did for the Jets, but for my money still doesn’t impress and he had two fumbles from not sensing pressure and protecting the ball enough. You can’t take too much away from this game as it was a professional win, but because of that it is hard to get too much of a view on the Panthers either. They certainly are heading in the right direction, but I’m not sure about them when it comes to face the elite of the league so I think they are definitely a team you can continue to be skeptical about for now.

Early Games:

I’m still at the point of the season where I can easily come up with a reason to watch every game, but for both time and space reasons I will try to rein in my enthusiasm a little.

The divisional matchup between the Chargers and the Chiefs is particularly tasty given both teams are already a game behind the Raiders and Broncos in AFC West. The Chiefs look as scary as ever on offence when passing the ball, but are struggling when rushing the ball and on defense are rock bottom in defending against it. Now, I think that run defense ranking will be skewed by us being two games into the season and one of them being against the Ravens and their diverse running attack, but Chiefs need to improve on defense over the course of the season to get back to the Super Bowl. It’s not such a disaster for the Chargers if they fail to challenge for the playoffs given they have a young franchise quarterback in his second season and a rookie head coach, but they do need to look as if they’re building something and this should be a good early test of that, but let’s give Brandon Staley time with the Chargers before we start to worry about them.

I am looking forward to watching the Patriots host the Saints as I really want to see the matchup between Bill Belichick and his defensive staff going against the Sean Payton’s and the Saints offence. We saw Jameis Winston demonstrate last week that he hasn’t exactly left behind the low points that have been an ongoing part of an up and down career on the field in the NFL. The Saints had a difficult week two with the number of coaches not available for the game due to a Covid-19 outbreak and are still missing personnel and given the situation in New Orleans following hurricane Ida things must be tough for everyone involved. The NFL waits for no one though and I am curious as to what is going to happen in this contest.

Points from the rest:

  • Washington have not looked like the team we were expecting on defense, and with Taylor Heinicke holding the starting position at quarterback for now it will be interesting to see if they can make this game competitive against a Bills team who seem to be if not struggling, then underperforming on offence. I like the Bills to win but this line does give me pause.
  • The Bears are starting Justin Fields as Andy Dalton is out with a knee injury, but the defense of the Browns is only ranked twenty-fifth by DVOA so the Bears might have an easier time than you might initially think look at the line. It would be a surprise if they can spring the upset, but I’m not so sure about covering the line.
  • The line is big for a reason, but the Ravens look to be on a roll and so the only concern is whether there is a let down after the emotional win against the Chiefs last week. I need to watch the Lions soon to get a feel for them given they have been better than some expected, but while a cover could be possible, a win really would be a surprise.
  • The Colts look to be starting Carson Wentz despite his sprained ankles, and they really need to get a win to get their season turned around, but it looks to be a tough ask in the current circumstances. That said, while the Titans played better last week to get their first win, I don’t exactly trust them.
  • The Falcons need to find something to build around under new head coach Arthur Smith, but the first step would be to be competitive and while the Giants are ranked only ten places better than the Falcons (who are the thirty-second ranked team by DVOA), there is also a chasm between them in terms of 74.5% between them so I wouldn’t like to predict it. Still this is probably too many points for the Giants to be laying to anyone.
  • The Steelers are going to be missing TJ Watt and there is an injury report regarding Ben Roethlisberger’s pec which gives me a little hope for the Bengals. My bold prediction this week was that the Bengals are going to win, which is probably a bit much but I don’t think a cover is out of the questions.
  • The Jaguars are struggling, and the visit of the Arizona Cardinals is probably not what they need to turn things round. It’s too early to write of Urban Myer in the NFL, but he is learning the league as he tries to turn around a franchise that hasn’t won consistently for a long time. The Cardinals are looking solid in all three phases of the game so far this season, and there’s an even bigger gap between them and the Jaguars by DVOA percentage points than there is between the Falcons and Giants. The Jaguars have lost seventeen straight games going back to last season and it’s hard to see them covering this one yet alone winning, though the Cardinals don’t have the finest track record themselves so it’s possibly they take their eye off the ball, but I can’t bring myself to back the Jaguars yet.

Washington @ Bills (-8.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Bears @ Browns (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Ravens @ Lions (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Colts @ Titans (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Chargers @ Chiefs (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Saints @ Patriots (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Falcons @ Giants (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Bengals @ Steelers (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Cardinals @ Jaguars (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Late Games:

The game of the week is right here with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travelling to LA to take on the Rams in a meeting of two unbeaten teams. This should be a chance for the Rams defense to show how good they truly are having lost players and their coordinator from last season, but you have to think that Sean McVay is feeling confident given the early returns of the addition of Matthew Stafford to his offence. I don’t want to pick this game at all, but I am really looking forward to watching it!

Points on the Rest:

  • The Broncos have made a good start to the season, even if it has been relatively easy, and the Jets are not exactly going to change that but you can only beat the teams put in front of you. If Teddy Bridgewater can keep his new found long ball success and the defense keeps holding up then the Broncos will be difficult to face all season, while the Jets are starting a rebuild and look likely to struggle all season.
  • The Dolphins have just placed Tua Tagovailoa on IR with his broken ribs and travel to face an unbeaten Raiders team. It has been a difficult start to the season for Miami and I’m curious to see if the Raiders can remain unbeaten in their push to finally get to the playoffs under Jon Gruden. Certainly, the play of Derek Carr has stopped the questions about quarterback for now, where as there seems to be no end of the speculation in Miami about their quarterback and there’s nothing Tagovailoa can do about that on IR.
  • The Seahawks lost in overtime last week and now take on a desperate 0-2 Vikings team in Minnesota. This should be a fascinating contest given Vikings slow start and the Seahawks new offence but I’m not sure which team I trust in this game. It’s too early to be a must win game, but neither team can really afford the loss given the state of their respective divisions.

Jets @ Broncos (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Dolphins @ Raiders (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Buccaneers @ Rams (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Vikings (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Sunday Night Football:

Packers @ 49ers (-3.5)

The Sunday night game between the Packers and the 49ers should another great contest. The Packers at least won their game against the Lions, but there are still questions about their defence and the offence has a way to go before it lives up to the levels of recent years. However, the 49ers offence is struggling, partly through the numerous running back injuries and Jimmy Garoppolo has not exactly convinced at quarterback either. The 49ers will likely be competitive as they generally are under Kyle Shanahan, but I’m not sure about them being favourites as this line suggests given their injury situation and giving Aaron Rodgers more than a field goal.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Monday Night Football

Eagles @ Cowboys (-3.5)

The Monday night clash sees the Philadelphia Eagles head to their division rivals the Dallas Cowboys coming off a loss to the 49ers where they picked up some tough injuries on the defensive line. I see potential in Jalen Hurts as a young quarterback but this week he must try to keep up with Dax Prescott and the Cowboys receivers and that seems unlikely. The Cowboys are still a work in progress on the defence and I am not ready to proclaim them the likely winners of the NFC East yet, but having been in close games to good teams I think they have too much for the Eagles unless there is a remarkable performance from someone That’s not impossible and I’m sure rookie head coach Nick Dirianni would love to make me eat my words but it’s going to take more than, ‘Beat Dallas’ t-shirts to make it happen.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week 3

23 Thursday Sep 2021

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We’re already gearing up for week three, and Dan managed to claw back two of my early three point lead as I followed up a strong week one with a poor week two. Fingers crossed I get myself setup shortly so I’m back on and even keel.

Gee:Week 2:  6 – 10Overall:  16 – 16
Dan:Week 2:  8 – 8Overall:  15 – 17

Panthers @ Texans (+7.5)

The Texans have put up credible efforts so far, but having lost starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor to a hamstring injury, they are giving rookie Davis Mills his first start against a Panthers’ defence who have ten sack through two games. I am interested to see how Mills does, and positively looking forward to seeing Christian McCaffrey play and how Sam Darnold looks with his new team. I don’t think the game will be an embarrassment for the Texans, but it’s a tough ask and whilst the points do concern me more than a little, with a developmental rookie thrust by injury into his first start I have to back the Panthers in this one.

This of course means that Mills will play great and will be a new gem from the last draft, which I will happy take in return for a dropped pick!

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Survivor Competition

I thought Dan was mad when he picked the Bengals last week, and my scepticism was proven well founded as the Bears beat them at home whilst I managed a second straight scoring week to take an early lead. I don’t want to worry fans of the Cardinals, but Dan stated he needed to get off the mark this week and is plumping for them travelling to face the Jags. Meanwhile, I’m backing the Broncos at home in the early season to be too much for the Jets, and I’m just hoping that I’m not putting too much faith in a 2-0 team taking on a team without a win even if it is at heigh altitude. I don’t expect Zach Wilson to throw four interceptions again this week, but Denver is a tough place for the rookie quarterback to play early in the season against a Vic Fangio defence.

Current Score

Gee: 2
Dan: 0

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:    Broncos
Dan:    Cardinals

Bold Prediction of the Week

I stress that this is a bold prediction, and it’s possibly one with too much emphasis on a headline about Roethliberger having a pec injury and TJ Watt having a problem with his groin, but this week I’m going for the Bengals to beat the Steelers. Given the history between the two franchises this is one I wasn’t waiting for Dan to confirm was bold enough.

The Season Starts to Take Shape

22 Wednesday Sep 2021

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After last week’s hubris I won’t be making any claims about schedules so let’s get looking at week two, which had losses for both TWF teams but some cracking contests so let’s see how things are shaping up in the early season.

What I Saw

I’ll start with the Bengals loss against the Bears that finished 20-17 despite a fourth quarter comeback from the Bengals, which had to contend with a hat trick of interceptions for Joe Burrow including a pick-six and another INT that setup one of the Bears’ two fourth quarter field goals. The really frustrating thing is that the Bengals defence looked pretty solid, despite giving up a touchdown to Andy Dalton in the first quarter they held the Bears to field goals the rest of the way. If the Bengals’ defence might be taking some kind of shape (and it really should given the dollars they have invested in it), the familiar story of offensive line problems seems to still be there, as well as a lot of empty formations that doesn’t exactly do a lot to stop Burrow taking hits, although the running game didn’t help give them much balance either.

As for the Bears, you can certainly see the potential of rookie quarterback Justin Fields and at this point you wonder whether Dalton will get the starting job back once he’s recovered from the bone bruise in his knee. The Bears’ defence sneaks into the top ten by DVOA and looked solid against the Bengals, even if the o-line troubles probably helped but I think we’re going to need a couple more weeks to truly get a feel for where the Bears are and there narrative is going to be about the quaterbacks for a while yet.

The other of the early Sunday games I watched was the 49ers taking on the Eagles in Philadelphia. The 49ers stayed out east having visited the Lions in week one and ran out 17-11 winners, but it was an odd contest for them. On defence they mostly controlled the Eagles offence, given up a lot of running yardage but not a lot passing (the Eagles did in fact out gain the 49ers in yards) and only conceded the one touchdown late in the game. However, it was more the 49ers offence that was really puzzling as their commitment to the run was there as always but was not efficient although they did eventually get one hundred yards. However, the passing game struggled early, with Jimmy Garoppolo missing throws early although he settled down over the course of the game, but whilst his completion percentage was good by the end of the game, his twenty-two completions only yielded one hundred and eighty-nine yards. It’s early in a long season and the 49ers are once again dealing with some injuries but whilst I expect them to be competitive, I’m just not sure how good they can be even if they are unbeaten so far.

The Eagles looked to be what I thought they were coming into the game, strong line play on both sides of the ball will keep them in games and I’m looking forward to seeing how they do in prime time against the Cowboys this coming Monday. The questions are again around the offence and like so many teams the Eagles are trying to work out what they have a quarterback. Certainly, second year quarterback Jalen Hurts is a threat on the ground, and all the usual run options plays were present, but he managed the odd combination of a completion percentage in the low fifties, but his twelve competitions yielded one more yards than the Garoppolo’s and the Eagles were a couple of near misses from having some very big plays. The Eagles have plenty of room to develop, and a 1-1 start is a solid beginning, but we’ll know a little bit more about them after week three.

The final game I saw was the Sunday night game that I’m sure enthralled many as the Baltimore Ravens hosted the Kansas City Chiefs and the home fans saw Lamar Jackson convert a fourth down to seal his first win against the Chiefs 36-35. It was a great game to watch as it features two quarterbacks capable of making you question how they did what you just saw, even if it is in different ways. Jackson is not a top level passer, but makes up for it with his legs, racking up another hundred yards on the ground and a pair of touchdowns to make up for the two interceptions he threw. The Ravens defence were focussed on Tyreek Hill, limiting the Chief’s number one receiver to three receptions for fourteen yards, but Patrick Mahomes was more than happy to distribute the ball to his other receivers with eight different players catching passes and Travis Kelce finishing the game with one hundred yards and a touchdown. To be fair, the Ravens had their own one-hundred-yard receiver in Marquise Brown but their shortfall in passing yardage was more than made up by the two hundred and fifty-one total rushing yards. There are still concerns about the Raven’s offence on obvious passing downs, but their offence is built differently and did enough to beat the Chiefs.

There might in fact be cracks showing in this iteration of the Chiefs, they are still terrifying on offence, but the defence is currently ranked thirty-first by DVOA and as good as their offence is, they need to get some stops or turnovers to make them less reliant on Mahomes and the offence. It’s still early in the season so I’m not pushing the panic button yet, but it’s definitely something worth keeping an eye on because to sustainably win, and challenge for the Super Bowl you need a defence that is good enough and through two games that hasn’t looked to be the case for the Chiefs.

For the Raven this win is particularly impressive given the injuries that they are already dealing with, but they are another team where it might be worth keeping an eye on their defensive ranking, but at least they have the history of competence on that side of the ball. The big question is whether they can be good enough on offence in high leverage moments as the days where you could win with stellar defence and competent offence have been replaced by the inverse, but it would be great to see a team win big with a different formula.

What I Heard

It’s been an interesting week for NFL media, a lot of the early coverage is either hot takes, or knowing over-reaction, which makes sense as it generates content whilst we work out how good the various teams are. The NFL is such a fluid league that even with a relatively sure quantity like the Chiefs, there are questions about them and already we have one or two teams slated to be bad play better than expected, even if actual wins are as low as expected. It’s such a short season with so much variance that we should be very careful to read too much into two games.

What I Think

I mentioned this whilst recording the podcast last night, but both West Divisions are looking impressive this year.

In the AFC the Raiders and Broncos are unbeaten, and the Chargers and Chiefs are lurking below them at 1-1 and whilst I’m sure this picture will become clearer in the coming weeks, it’s certainly somewhere between a good to promising start for all four teams and I’m intrigued at how the Broncos and Raiders build on their early success.

Meanwhile, in the NFC West there are three unbeaten teams in the Rams, 49ers, Cardinals with the Seahawks sitting right behind them on 1-1. This has been a tough division for several years, and while I have my concerns about the 49ers right now, the early returns on the addition of Matthew Stafford to the Rams has been impressive, whilst Kyler Murray looks more like himself with the Cardinals this season and their defence is currently ranked sixth by DVOA and I am looking forward to seeing Chandler Jones who had five sacks in the Cardinals’ opening game. When you talk about the Seahawks, you’re expecting tough defence and an offence focussed on running the ball, which was the formula that they tried to revert to during the second half of last season. However, once again their offence ranks higher by DVOA than their defence and whilst I expect them to compete for the playoffs as they always do, I am intrigued to see the new offence and how it evolves over the season.

What I Know

The Bengals have an interesting game coming up against the Steelers, which as much as fans of the Bengals sports-hate the Steelers, it can’t be a true rivalry until the Bengals win a lot more games. There are enough injuries floating round the Steelers for there to be flutters of hope in my fan heart, but I know that it’s unlikely the Bengals will win. Still, strange things can happen so we shall just have to see.

What I Hope

Right now, my hope is that one of the Dolphins or the Bengals will put an offensive line together that enable their young quarterbacks to maximise their potential but I’m not sure we’ll see that any time soon.