Tag Archives: Brock Osweiler

Never has a team needed a Bye week so badly!

13 Tuesday Nov 2018

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We’re 10 weeks into a pretty good season now, and everyone’s left with just 6 or 7 games remaining. Bye weeks are often a bit of a distraction from football (even a pain in the arse if you’re running a fantasy football team!) but let me tell you – never have a team needed a Bye week more than the Dolphins do this coming weekend. Even last year when our Bye Week was effectively in week one due to the hurricane in Tampa, we didn’t look as beat up as we do now at any point during the season.

This week saw the Dolphins take a trip up-north to the frozen tundra that is Green Bay (ok, it’s not that bad, I know) and struggled to warm up all game. We went into the game battered and bruised, but with a surprising winning record, and unfortunately returned back to Miami even more battered, but without that winning record, so… not a great week if I’m honest!

As we know, Brock Osweiler has been under centre since Week 6 due to Ryan Tannehill’s injured shoulder, and he definitely didn’t have a good one this week. He was sacked 6 times for a loss of 50 yards throughout the game. Now, that wasn’t all his fault – the O-line was patchy at best, but what doesn’t help is his huge tell – when he’s under pressure, Brock always steps out to his right. Seriously, go back and watch the tape – he does it every single time. So the Packers knew that all they had to do was put some pressure on him down the middle, and then sweep him up after he rolled out to his right.

He’s also quickly running out of targets too. He was already without Albert Wilson (WR) and MarQueis Gray (TE) going into this one, but during the game, both Jakeem Grant and DeVante Parker left the field in a bad way with Leg and Shoulder problems respectively. Adding to that a shoulder issue for Kenyan Drake at Running Back, and it’s difficult to see where the points are going to come from. What I will say, is that Frank Gore is more than picking up the slack at the RB position, adding another 90 yards to his season tally on Sunday. [I have to add that at age 35 I find Gore’s productivity this season a feat that should be more celebrated – Ed.] And it’s not just on Offence we’re struggling – I commented on Sunday that I felt particularly bad for Bobby McCain (CB) who looks like he could have picked up a bad concussion. So, I think you can see why we badly need a week to heal up!

Strangely, we actually moved the ball fairly well. It was just the final product that we struggled with. I lost count of the number of times we got to within 10-15 yards [According to ESPN zero out of three red zone visits], but couldn’t finish it off. This lead to us only picking up 4 field goals during the game.

Here I go again, not giving our opponents the credit they deserved. The Packers looked good – it took them a little while to get going, but when they did, their game really came together. Aaron Jones (RB) was devastating, finding some huge holes in our Defence, including one especially long run at 67 yards. They fully deserved their win, and I don’t think anyone who watched that game would think anything otherwise.

What was really nice was connecting with an old school friend (and Cheesehead) Andy, now living in Australia while watching the game. He was surprised at how well the Green Bay Defence did, having had what he described as a ‘truly awful’ season to this point. The NFL really is a great connector!

I feel I’ve suitably rambled on about our game now, so lets have a look what happened elsewhere.

You’ll know by now that I have something of a fascination with the Kicking game. Well, Chicago kicker Cody Parker had a difficult week this week. Not only did he miss 2 extra points (something almost unthinkable a few seasons ago!), but also a couple of Field Goals, and all four hit the goalpost, which he couldn’t do again if he tried. I’ve said before that I feel for kickers as it doesn’t take many misses to find themselves on the chopping block, so I can’t imagine it’s a particularly nice week for him in training this week!

The Rams are marching on, with another win, making the Betting chart look like this:

They’re really making it look more and more like there’s a 2 horse race in the NFC. I caught the majority of the Bengals game this week, and while I will leave the majority of the coverage to Gee, in short, the Saints absolutely took them apart. It was a difficult watch to be honest, so I know how much Gee will have struggled with it.

And elsewhere in the pick’em competition, I’m 5 points away from Gee, and 6 from my Dad (I can’t even call it beginners luck for him this year!) which is annoying me. I feel like it’s too big a gap to catch at this late stage, but I’m sure there are some surprises still to come which may help me along.

But that’s it for me this week. Speaking of surprises, my Twitter topic this week will be surprise packages of the season – who’s not having the season that you expected them to have this year, good or bad? Drop me a line on Twitter and lets have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

Back To My Old Self!

06 Tuesday Nov 2018

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Firstly, I just want to say thank you to everyone who read my post last week – it was my highest viewed post since I’ve been contributing, but more importantly, it was REALLY cathartic to write.

With that said, I’m back to my old self this week, and luckily for you I’ve watched some football! Although, that’s a fairly loose term for what I saw during the Dolphins/Jets game on Sunday night. It was one of the most boring games I’ve watched for a long time, which was highlighted especially as I fell asleep while watching the game for 10 play clock minutes in the third quarter, and missed absolutely nothing! Seriously… I’ve been back and watched it… nothing happened!

That being said, I can imagine Gee would have found some positives in it. The Defences were both pretty strong, helped along by two particularly poor offences. Jets’ rookie quarterback Sam Darnold looked… well, very much like a Rookie. He seemed a bit off the boil, and very much a different player to the one I watched in the Away fixture in week 2. He definitely wasn’t helped by a Centre with a broken finger who was providing him with dud-snaps all game, but to throw 4 interceptions in one game is pretty unforgivable.

On the Miami Offence, one thing that baffled me a little was Frank Gore out snapping, and out running Kenyan Drake by 20 attempts to just 3! I’m not sure if there’s more to it than meets the eye here, but it’s a strange choice to allow the veteran 35 year old more carries than the up and coming potential future of the team’s Running Game who is just finding his feet in his third season in the league. Osweiler wasn’t great either. He’s said he wants to make it impossible for Adam Gase to put Ryan Tannehill back into the lineup when he returns to fitness, but if he wants to do that, he’s got to try a LOT harder when he has the opportunity – his deep passes over the last few weeks have been woefully poor, and his accuracy even at mid-range isn’t where it needs to be.

But, a win is a win as they say, and next week it’s on to… oh no… Green Bay.

Speaking of the Packers, they visited the Patriots on Sunday night [The clue is the big Gillette in the above photo – Ed.] , in what (barring an increasingly unlikely meeting at the Superbowl) looks like it’ll be the last meeting of the 12’s before Brady hangs up his cleats. It was a good game too and had a bit of everything including a nice trick play with Julian Edelman completing a pass for 37 yards. What is really encouraging is that Josh Gordon seems to be finding his feet in New England and is connecting well with Tom Brady. Especially nice to see given the knowledge of his off-field problems which have hindered much of his career.

Elsewhere, the Rams took their first loss of the season, meaning there are now no unbeaten teams. They’ve done well to get this far though to be fair, and the Saints are looking equally good in recent weeks. We could very easily see this being a pre-cursor to the NFC Championship game in January – you heard it here first people! Oh, and that had a slightly negative impact on my bet too, which means the chart now looks like this…

I don’t think Gee or I have mentioned yet that London will be hosting 4 games next year, between Wembley and the new Tottenham stadium. Good news all round, I think. There’s only 3 teams who are yet to play in London, so I would expect at least 2 of the Packers, Panthers and Texans to make the trip over the pond. Selfishly, I really hope the Dolphins come over again, but assuming there are no teams playing here more than once next year, a quarter of the league will be visiting London, which is great! This year’s games were a really good advert for the league too, and caused a lot of people to catch games who wouldn’t normally… although most people seem just to be talking about the toll that 3 games in 3 weeks had on the Wembley turf!

What’s your favourite game that we’ve seen over here in London? And what’s your usual pre-match routine when you visit Wembley? Get in touch on Twitter, and lets have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

Don’t Worry, No-One Knows Anything…

17 Wednesday Oct 2018

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18-10-17 M-Tomlin

Image Credit: behindthesteelcurtain.com

So with a heart filled with the familiar pain of a loss to our divisional rivals I have to pick up the jagged bloody pieces of my fandom and get on with the blog because the NFL schedule waits for no one.

The Bengals lost to the Steelers again, but it wasn’t exactly an implosion and Andy Dalton gave the boys in stripes a lead with 1:18 left on the clock in the fourth quarter, but Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brows sealed the game and whilst some are complaining about calls, this was a close game and the mounting injuries were as much the cause as anything. It doesn’t get any easier though as the Bengals are on the road against Kansas City this week and have been flexed into the Sunday night game, which bodes badly given the Bengals poor record in nationally televised games.

However, enough of my gloom! One of the reasons that covering the NFL is fun is that even with the most detailed preparation no one knows anything and there were plenty of surprises amongst the entertaining week six games.

I chose entertaining deliberately as we had one of the best games of the season this week with the Kansas City Chiefs going to New England taking them down to the final whistle as Stephen Gostkowski kicked a twenty-eight yard field goal to seal the win. For what felt like the first time this season it looked a little bit like Patrick Mahomes felt some nerves being on the road in front of the nation, but the Chiefs recovered from a half time score 0f 9-24 and forced a final second field goal out of the Patriots. I’m sure plenty of people are already hoping for a repeat game in the playoffs, whilst I’m just worried about what the Chiefs are going to do to the Bengals next week, but let’s not disappear down that rat hole!

Part of the excitement of this season has been the dominance of the offence this season where even a team that has the number one defence by DVOA can give up five hundred yards to a Miami Dolphins offence helmed by Brock Osweiler. Now a lot of this was done by Adam Gase utilising his young skill players ability to turn short passes into long gains, but is impressive none the less. I’m beginning to think the only reliable defence at the moment belongs to the Baltimore Ravens who shut out the Tennessee Titans this week and managed to rack up eleven sacks. This is too many for me not to take a look at their pass rush for my amateur adventures in film post and it will be nice to get back to some defensive tape. However, the story this season really is offence and not always from the usual suspects. I shared the frustrations I had heard repeatedly stated about the Dallas Cowboys offence having seen it for my own eyes against the Texans earlier this season, but thanks to modern technology it takes so much less time for plays to spread and the Cowboys came up with a doozy of a game plan in week six that enabled them to stick forty points on the Jacksonville Jaguars defence. Okay, so there were four field goals in that total but Cole Beasley racked up over a hundred receiving yards and a two touchdowns whilst Ezekiel Elliott also ran for a hundred yards. All this was with Dak Prescott throwing for a modest one hundred and eight-three yards but he also chipped in with eighty-two yards on the ground. I’m not saying everything is suddenly fixed, things are far too unpredictable but this game is definitely something that could be built upon.

There’s a reason that I said could. If this season has taught us nothing else, it is to be wary of the grand statement. Now this is a familiar feeling to me having been blogging about this league for four years now, which is really nothing, but it does feel like the development and changes within the league are accelerating. Every year we see teams who were bottom of their division suddenly leading, even if there are a handful of teams who always seem to do well or poorly, but it does feel like things are increasingly topsy-turvy and week to week. This is likely to be that apart from the structural things to do with the rosters, injury luck, and tactical complexity that makes predicting outcomes difficult, we have such a small sample size that every game takes on more importance and we draw bigger inferences than we should on the basis of one game. Across the entire season they sort themselves out a little, but it is so hard to remain competitive across a season never mind to build a dynasty like the Patriots currently have, or that the 49ers had when I was growing up.

It also doesn’t help when trends spread across season. It feels like LA Chargers have been competitive but losing too many close games for a while, but if you look back at their results to include last season. They may have started 2017 with four losses, but since week five of last season the Chargers have only lost to the Patriots, Jaguars and Chiefs last in 2017 and the Chiefs and Rams this season. That gives them a record of 13-5 record over an admittedly arbitrarily selected series of games. However, they beat the Cleveland Browns convincingly this week and so perhaps I should be a little more trusting of them given that they had moved cities and hired a new head coach before the start of said 2017 season and that four loss streak. There is plenty of talent on their roster and having listed them as a real contender two weeks ago, I’m really beginning to think they will compete across this season. I hereby apologise for the jink I have just placed on the Chargers.

I can’t finish this blog without saying a quick word about the London game. It was a rainy Wembley that saw the host Oakland Raiders get thoroughly beaten by the Seattle Seahawks and we should not take for granted that we still get to see live regular NFL games in this country. There have been some great competitive games at Wembley, but we have also seen our fair share of one sided contests. This time both teams had to travel from the west coach of America so there’s no real disadvantage there but whilst the Seahawks may well be rebuilding, at least they have a settled head coach and general manager working together. It feels like Jon Gruden is rebuilding the Raiders by tearing everything down, which is interesting as the GM who built it, Reggie McKenzie, is still there. Not content with trading away Khalil Mack there’s now rumblings the Raiders would accept a number one pick for Amari Cooper and people are talking about how little a cap hit it would be to cut Derek Carr at the end of the season. This is all getting a bit speculative for me to want to cover, other than to say with a roster that has a number of older players, if they are going to tear everything down it could take a while to get good again and I don’t see how this is going to sell tickets in Las Vegas. Still, all we can do for now is watch and wonder, which is pretty much how I’ve felt all season, be it considering thoughtfully or gazing in awe.

It must be love… love, love!

17 Wednesday Oct 2018

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Week 6 is now in the books, and it was a bit of a strange one for me. This was the first week of the season where I couldn’t watch any of the games Live on Sunday because of prior arrangements, and it reminded me just how much I like my Sunday night routines during the season. I couldn’t completely concentrate on what I was doing because I knew that Football was happening at the same time, and I suppose that’s how you know you love something… even if it is a sport!

So, what was I missing? Well, the Dolphins managed to overcome a bit of an injury crisis to get back to winning ways. Gee and I exchanged texts on Sunday evening when it became clear that Ryan Tannehill was going to be spending the game on the sidelines while Brock Osweiler was under centre, and we both came to the conclusion that Miami had no chance… (Quote at 1 hour before Kickoff: “I’m sorry for your loss”). And while they made hard work of it, and it took an overtime Field Goal to settle it, they managed to grind it out.

Image – Yahoo Sports

Brock was clearly the surprise of the team, but it was fantastic to see Albert Wilson pick up another impressive 43 yard touchdown which saw him make almost every one of those yards after the catch – believe it or not, he’s actually the league leader for Yards after Catch this year so far. He’s been really impressive this year. What the Dolphins badly needed was someone to step up to the plate and replace Jarvis Landry, and it really feels like he’s done that.

Speaking of Mr Landry, his team struggled a bit. The Browns have done quite well at keeping themselves in games and even picking up a couple of wins along the way, but they didn’t look good this week. I thought they’d do ok, but the Chargers proved far too much for them and came away with the win.

Elsewhere in that division, I felt for Gee and his Bengals. I can absolutely sympathise with him and his exasperation at the thought of another loss to their divisional rivals having experienced it almost every time we’ve played the Patriots in the last 10 years! There is an up side though. It was close, and the Bengals are still join top of the AFC North with over a third of the season gone. Admit it Gee, it’s a better position than you thought you’d be in at the beginning of the season! [I wasn’t brave enough for a full on prediction before the season, but I’d have definitely taken a share of the division lead if was offered. – Ed.]

Image: @NFLUK on Twitter

It was the first of this year’s Wembley games this week too, and I don’t half feel for the Oakland fans in attendance. I was there last year when the Saints gave the Dolphins a pasting (it finished 20-0, but I had to look that up, as the memory of most of that day has been repressed!) and I can tell you — it don’t feel good! Another record crowd was in attendance, and there will be no empty seats in North London for the next two Sundays either. The growth in popularity of our great sport doesn’t only show in the stadium attendances and the multiple ‘My first NFL Game’ posts I see on Facebook and Instagram each year (because I’m down with the kids), but also in people talking about it at work. I’ve genuinely had 3 people this week already come up to me at work who all know of my passion for American football and tell me that they watched the game on Sunday. I think having 3 games in consecutive weeks is brilliant too, because people who watched and enjoyed this game will give it a go again this weekend, and get to see another couple of teams, and who knows, they may even pick themselves a team to follow (although I’d save that until the following week if you’re going to do that)!

The Rams are still unbeaten, which as you’ll imagine, was good for my season’s bet, as you’ll see below:

And I managed 9 points in pick’em too, which was the best I’ve done since week one – happy days!

And that’s about it for this week. Week 7 to come and there’s some good games too. The Chargers and Titans will be on their way to London as I type, but will you be making your way to Wembley too? And I’d be really interested to hear about your game day routines too with me missing mine last week! Lets have a chat on Twitter.

Until next week…

@TWFDan

Goodbye to the Disappointed Divisional Teams

22 Sunday Jan 2017

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We have said goodbye to four more teams, and are only three games that matter away from the end of the season. Of course our thoughts turn towards the conference championship games this weekend, but before we consider them fully let us take a moment to look at the state of the four departed and consider what was a truly spectacular game on Sunday.

The early game saw the Seattle Seahawks finally finish a difficult down year for them that still netted them a division title and a playoff win. They started the game off strongly, moving the ball on their first drive and scoring a touchdown to take an early lead that they held onto until around two thirds of the way through second quarter and were unable to reclaim. The Seahawk’s offence was let down by its structural flaw in the offensive line, and so they were unable to keep up with the Atlanta Falcons superb offence. It is not too often that you see a guard step on his quarterback’s foot and cost his team a safety. The Seahawks managed to run for one hundred yards, but with only twenty-one carries they were not as committed to it as the previous week, and they were unable to do enough through the air to make up for it although both Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson had respectable days in gaining eighty yards each. However, combine the problems on offence with a defence that was missing Earl Thomas at safety and there were too many problems to overcome.

The Seahawks should have Thomas back next year, but their focus should be improving the offensive line. The problem is that this was the case last season so while they appear to have the cap space to address this, you can’t honestly predict if they will or not address their offensive line this offseason. Still, you would expect the Seahawks to be competitive again next season and I will be curious to see how Pete Caroll approaches next season with chatter already surfacing that he will be addressing some aspect of his player’s behaviour that adversely affected the team this years. I can’t see him changing completely, but as ever I look forward to seeing what happens in Seattle.

The second game on Sunday was unsurprising in its result, and the Patriots still covered the huge line in beating the Houston Texans, but the actual game did not exactly flow how many predicted. The Texans offence struggled, and benefitted from some rare mistakes from the Patriots to take advantage of good field position. However, the problems with Brock Osweiler’s play at quarterback still continued to hamper this team’s efforts and this surely will be a big focus in the offseason. There is some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, but the return of JJ Watt to play alongside Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney could produce a terrifying front seven and a defence that could be as scary as any in the league. Even without Watt they were able to scheme pressure up the middle and rattle Tom Brady, even if Brady was able to find a way to grind out the game as he usually does.

The Texans could be a really good team, but they have to address the quarterback problem. This is something of a surprise given that Bill O’Brien is an offensive minded head coach who has a reputation as a quarterback whisperer, but he can only coach the players he is given. He seemed to learn the lesson of last season and so stuck with Osweiler until he just couldn’t any more, but it is worrying that receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a better season with the rotating cast of quarterbacks that were throwing him the ball last season than with Osweiler and Savage this. If they can get the right balance on offence then this team could take a real step forward, but with their recent history who knows if they will be able to manage it.

The first game on Sunday was one of the best of the season and certainly the highlight of the playoffs to date. What started as a dominating performance by the Green Bay Packers, which saw them gain a 21-3 lead by half way through the second quarter ended in a tight contest that saw three fifty plus yard field goals in the last two minutes.

The Cowboys success this year was based up their two stellar rookies performing behind their excellent offensive line. Thrust from developmental backup to opening day starting quarterback by Tony Romo’s preseason fractured vertebrae, Dak Prescott has been remarkably calm and safe with the ball from the get go and as the season progressed so did his range of passing. Prescott’s ability to run the ball also complements rookie running back sensation Ezekiel Elliott and the pair of them led the Cobwoys to the playoffs. They were slow starters, which could very well be attributed to nerves, but Elliott ran for one hundred and twenty-five yards whilst Prescott threw for over three hundred. There is no shame in falling short against the Packers, particularly as it took some remarkable play for Aaron Rodgers and ridiculously difficult catch by Jared Cook to setup the winning field goal.

The Cowboys defence has struggled to keep up with the performance of the offence, and whilst they were solid enough in overall DVOA ranking at seventeen, they have struggled to rush the passer and they will need to address this side of the ball in the offseason to improve. It will be disappointing to go 13-3 and not get a playoff win, but this team is a very good position to continue its success next year, and if they continue to draft as strongly as they have in recent years then I see no reason bar injury that they won’t do so. Given how well the pick of Elliott has worked out, I will be giving them a bigger benefit of the doubt when draft time rolls round!

The final game of the weekend saw a second team depart the playoffs without a win after a bye week when the Kansas City Chiefs were beaten by the Pittsburgh Steelers despite scoring two touchdowns to the Steelers’ zero.

The Chiefs have been a very good regular season team over the last two years, but have struggled to make this really count with a deep playoff run. This season’s team was a very balanced matchup of offence and defence with very good special teams. However, there were flaws in this team that came back to bite them in this game. The Chiefs defence has been solid this year, but they have been very reliant on turnovers and only managed one in this game. However, despite having a poor rushing defence and giving up one hundred and seventy yards on the ground to Le’Veon Bell, the Chiefs defence limited the Steelers to six field goals and so it was not the defence that cost the Chiefs this game.

The Chiefs have relied on a speed and big plays to supplement their offence, and the Steelers made a point of kicking away from Tyreek Hill to negate his return ability on special teams and their defence was able to limit the Chiefs’ offence for large stretches of the game. Whilst the Steelers racked up nearly four hundred yards of the offence, the Chiefs were only able to amass a little under two hundred and thirty and this was their real problem. Their offence, based as it is on trickery and speed was unable to move the ball consistently enough to win against the Steelers.

Moving into next season, the Chiefs will likely to be just as consistent again, but it seems they will need to find some extra level if they are to take the next step. Shoring up a porous run defence will go a long way to helping that side of the ball, whilst making the offence more consistent will help the other side. A more consistent run game could be found simply from their running backs being healthier, but continuing the improvements to the offensive line would help as well. However, there are already questions being asked about whether Alex Smith is capable of the level of play required to win big in the playoffs. Given some of the names that have graced the Super Bowl that might be a little over the top, but the era defining defences that are needed to carry such quarterbacks far into the playoffs are not easy to come by, and it is not hard to see the Chiefs drafting a quarterback to develop behind a thirty-two year old Smith.

Saturday Divisional Games

14 Saturday Jan 2017

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Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

The injury to Earl Thomas robbed us of the chance to see a full strength Seattle defence go up against the number one ranked offence by DVOA in the league, but this should still be a fascinating contest.

The Falcons have the options on offence, and the players to challenge Seattle down the seams and see if they find a weakness in the secondary without Thomas patrolling the rear of the defence. Their offence has been in great shape all year, moving away on the reliance on Julio Jones to spread the ball around a number of receivers and the combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have caused many teams problems out of the backfield. They are a team that run more traditional sets with a fullback than almost any other team in the league, and I am looking forward to seeing how Kyle Shanahan plans to attach the Seahawks defence. The Atlanta defence has pretty ordinary for most of the season, but Vic Beasley led the lead in sacks and with the offence playing so well, they only have to do so much to keep the Falcons in the game.

I was impressed by the the Seahawks renewed commitment to the run last week, which helped their offensive line play better and sparked an improved performance. Against a defence that ranks twenty-ninth in rush defence by DVOA this might help the Seahawks limit the time the Falcons offence has on the field, but given the problems they’ve had with the offensive line you could see Vic Beasley getting pressure on Russel Wilson. The defence also looked better last week, but the Falcons offence is a very different prospect that the Lions with their injured quarterback.

In the end I fancy the Falcons to win, but we really shouldn’t discount the playoff experience of the Seahawks, but the problems they have had against the pass since Thomas was injured could really hurt them in this one.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

The Patriots went 14-2 this season despite having Tom Brady suspended for four games, losing one with him and one without. In their previous meeting the Patriots ran out 27-0 winners with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback so it is hard to see anything other than a Patriots’ win in this game.

The offence has been its usual efficient self, and has barely missed a beat since Rob Gronkowski was lost to injury as it appears that nothing can slow down Brady who has managed to get himself into the MVP discussion despite his suspension. The defence struggled earlier in the season, but has come on over the course of the season and whilst finishing a modest sixteenth by DVOA, they will have scheme enough for a Texans offence that has sputtered all season.

The Texans got their win last week, and will no doubt want to put in a better performance than their last visit to Gillette Stadium. However, whilst their defence should be competitive, with a number of players stepping out of JJ Watt’s shadow to lead the team, the offence is likely to struggle. The Texans stressed surrounding Brock Osweiler with options in the passing game, but he struggled to make use of them for much of the year. He looked a bit better last week, but I’m not sure he’ll have the tools to attack this Patriots defence. I can see Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney causing problems with their pass rush abilitiy, and AJ Abouye has looked like an excellent pick up at corner, but you just have a feeling that the Patriots will find a way to win out in the end. They have for most of this season.

Wildcard Saturday

07 Saturday Jan 2017

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Oakland Raiders (12-4) @ Houston Texans (9-7)

There are some that are being sniffy about this game, but there aren’t that many games left so we shouldn’t be too picky and we will be seeing history when Connor Cook becomes the first quarterback to start their first game in the playoffs.

The Houston Texans may have lost JJ Watt early in the season, but their defence still managed to rank seventh by DVOA and this was the year where Jadeveon Clowney started to put things together. There are rumours that Bill O’Brien’s job may not be safe unless the Texans get a win in this game. Certainly as an offensive minded coach who is meant to get the best out of quarterbacks, the struggles they have had in finding a consistent starter at that position in recent years will be a concern. With Tom Savage in the concussion protocol we see the return of Brock Osweiler who struggled a lot this year, and who was cheered when he was pulled out of the game several weeks ago, although I thought he looked a little better against the Raiders when these teams met in Mexico.

It feels like the Raiders had their fairy tale return to the playoffs stolen from them when Derek Carr broke his leg in their penultimate game and to lose their backup quarterback to injury seems particularly cruel. They still have an excellent offensive line, and play with a sixth linemen more than any other team in the league, but with the problems they have had on defensive despite some very good players, they have really felt the loss at quarterback. However, they should not be without hope as there is a chasm between these two teams in DVOA ranking with the Raiders at eleven and the Texans ranked twenty ninth.

This might not be a pretty game, but there is a lot on the line and as a writer would be happy to see Osweiler prove the doubters wrong, Connor Cook announce himself to the league, Khalil Mack demonstate his pass rush ability once more or watch Jedeveon Clowney really announce himself to the league. I think I lean towards the Texans winning at home, but it would not surprise me to see the Raiders win on the road, likely to be proclaimed as one for Derek.

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks

This is another intriguing if potentially ugly game.

The Seahawks won their division and went 7-1 at home, but whilst the offence has been up and down all year through injuries and problems with their offensive line, the defence has not looked the same since Earl Thomas was lost for the season in week thirteen with a broken leg. It was Thomas’ ability to patrol between the numbers behind the defence that allowed the secondary to play as aggressively as it does, and whilst playing them in Seattle will still be a problem they do look beatable.

The problem for the Lions is that they have had their own problems this year since Matthew Stafford dislocated the tip of his middle finger on his throwing hand. The ball has not been coming out the same, and the fourth quarter heroics that so defined their early season success has dried up in recent weeks. In fact, they come into this game on a three game losing streak and could have a very tough time in this game. The hope will be that Stafford has another week to heal, and the Seahawks are struggling, but they will need to stick to the run more and hope the defence can stand up to a patchy Seahawks offence.

This was the year that Stafford took a step for me and looked more capable of winning on the road, but it is hard to see the Lions getting their first playoff victory since 1957 in Seattle under the circumstance. I would love to be proved wrong, and I could see this being a close game, but I do have a feeling that the Seahawks recent run of playoff success will prove telling.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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Houston Texan 0
New England Patriots 27

This is a slightly odd game to write up as it was so incredibly one sided, and even though I said when I picked the Texans that I could see the Patriots winning the game, I was not thinking with a result like this.

The Patriots dominated the Texans in all three phases of the game and so I will start with mention of the Patriots in special teams. One feature that has already been pretty prominent this season is the Patriot’s reaction to the new kick off rules, with them deliberately kicking the ball short of the end zone and backing their coverage team to tackle before the twenty-five yard line and so give them an advantage in field position. Add this to them regularly pining the Texans behind the twenty yard line by punting, and they had a decided advantage in special teams even before the Texans started fumbling their returns.

On offence the Patriots demonstrated that they don’t have a single game plan, but adjust to both their opponent and the strength of their team, and so with a rookie third string quarterback they went very run heavy whilst using stunts and extra linemen to control the Texan’s defensive front. This they did very effectively, and whilst they were not explosive on offence, they did enough. This is even more impressive when you find out that in the second quarter Jacoby Brissett sprained his thumb. The Patriots may have only generated one hundred and three yards of passing offence on eleven completions from nineteen attempts, but when you can get one hundred and eighty-five yards on the ground then this doesn’t matter.

The Texans defence was pretty ineffective, which JJ Watt kept remarkably quiet. It is hard to write too much about them in a game like this, they kept in control of the passing game, but that really wasn’t the focus of the Patriots offence. How they allowed the known to be mobile Brissett to run twenty-seven yards for a touchdown is a mystery, and they will be hoping that this was just a blip in the season and Watt’s problems were simply caused by a road game on a short week whilst still coming back from a back injury.

If the defensive problem for the Texans were possibly a blip, the offensive struggles are actually pretty worrying. The game plan did not work at all, with a surprising number of attempted runs on third down, and the Texans didn’t even make it into the Patriots half of the field until the third quarter. It didn’t seem that Brock Osweiler could drive the team in this game, and DeAndre Hopkins had to make some pretty spectacular catches to get his four catches for fifty-six yards. All too often Osweiler would throw to Lamar Miller or Ryan Griffin underneath, and he will have to improve greatly to justify his seventeen million dollar a year contract. It must also be worrying that Bill O’Brien was so outcoached on his side of the ball, but plenty of coordinators have failed against Bill Belichick.

The Patriots defence really had the number of the Texans all game, and whilst there was no one area obviously dominant, they were able to contain the Texans all game and certainly never allowed them to sustain a drive. The interception by Jamie Collins was as much because Osweiler simply didn’t see him lurking in the middle of the field, and Jabaal Sheard got both of the team’s sacks, but in keeping with the overall nature of this game it was a team performance that was the story of the defence.

The Patriots keep rolling, and I don’t think anyone would bet against them going 4-0 without Tom Brady despite the injury problems stacking up at quarterback, especially with the Bills visiting them next week.

The Texans will be hoping this was a one off anomaly, but with the offensive problems and JJ Watt not looking at all himself, there will be concern until they can put a run of results together.