So I had a Thursday night where I pretty much couldn’t have been further from right so let’s hope that form doesn’t spill into today’s picks! Firstly, however, can I pick up any more points in the trivia competition:

‘How many of the 31 NFL stadiums have Grass playing surfaces? I’ll give a score of  2 points for an exact hit or a consolation 1 if you are within 3 of the actual figure.’

So I’ve been through a list of teams and assigned those that I think play on grass but looking at the number I think I’m wrong. I’ll go for it anyway, so twenty-one.

‘We’re back to guessing again. Question for me is do I think more or less than half have turf… I think it’s close. I’ll say 15 have Grass.’

Titans @ Chargers (-6.5)

These are two teams in very different places and I have a lot more faith in the Chargers given they have only lost to very good teams for quite a while now. I’m hesitant because of the size of the line but given the frequency with which London games seem to be one sided I’m going to pick them to cover this line against a Titans team who gave up eleven sacks last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Bills @ Colts (-6.5)

I think the Indianapolis Colts are a better team than their 1-5 record indicates and having played four games on the road so far this season t this looks to be as good a chance as they’ve had to get a home win. The Buffalo Bills defence actually ranks third by DVOA but after Josh Allen picked up an elbow injury they’re starting Derek Anderson who has only been on the roster for a little over a week. This could bite me but there is a big difference between these two teams’ overall DVOA percentage and I’m backing Andrew Luck and his team to cover, even if I don’t like laying this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Patriots @ Bears (+3.5)

So I am very curious about this game as the New England Patriots will be riding high after a big win against the Chiefs on Sunday night football last week, whereas the Bears are coming off a disappointing loss to the Dolphins in the heat of Miami. Not only did the Bears lose, but Khalil Mack picked up an ankle injury although is expected to play. It feels strange to me that the Bears are actually ranked higher than the Patriots by DVOA, particularly as there’s a fairly large difference in DVOA percentage between them, but it’s not a figure I trust. The Bears had such a huge win over the Buccaneers I suspect it is skewing the figures and there is no way you can trust Mitch Trubisky even if Matt Nagy is at least scheming him a way to have a chance of success. I like the Patriots to win this game but in a matchup of the seventh ranked offence versus the number one defence by DVOA I’m going to grab this number of points at home for the cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Browns @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the first team to fire a co-ordinator when Mike Smith was let go after their loss to the Falcons last week. Yes, the defence has been a big problem but their offence has thrown for a lot of yards and scored points but more often not has not been able to overcome their porous defence. This week a welcome a Cleveland Browns team who had their first bad loss of the season last week, but who still have a top ten defence even if the offence is struggling. I don’t know how Baker Mayfield will look given the ankle injury he picked up last week but this could be a tough spot for them on the road but also represents an opportunity to get right. The extra half point worries me as I don’t really trust either team so I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Lions @ Dolphins (+0.5)

The Miami Dolphins remain in contention for a playoff spot thanks in large part to an unbeaten home record, aided by heat and humidity that has sapped the strength of their opponents. Last week they beat an improved Bears team and now they welcome an up and down Detroit Lions who have two quality wins, including the Packers last week. The emergence of Kenny Golladay at receiver and rookie running back Kerryon Johnson has caught the eye but only led to a DVOA ranking of twentieth. In fact, there is a huge difference in overall DVOA percentage between these two teams that’s leading me to join Dan in backing the Dolphins this week, even if Brock Osweiler likely being the quarterback again doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Vikings @ Jets (+3.5)

Things have picked up for the Minnesota Vikings in the last couple of weeks as they managed to beat the Eagles and Cardinals but their vaunted defence just isn’t the same this season and whilst Kirk Cousins has generated a lot offence, he has also fumbled a number of times and thrown three interceptions to go with his twelve touchdowns. This week they travel to face the New York Jets who are actually ranked five placed ahead of the Vikings by overall DVOA as well as having the same number of wins. Sam Darnold may have looked like a rookie quarterback but he’s looked like a good one, although his favourite receiver Quincy Enunwa is going to be missing for a couple of weeks with an ankle sprain. This is quite a lot of points for the Jets at home and with the extra half point I’m strongly tempted to pick them but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. I could regret this but I’m nervously backing the always competitive Vikings.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Panthers @ Eagles (-4.5)

After a straight forward road win on Thursday night, the Philadelphia Eagles return home to host a Carolina Panthers who lost on the road in Washington last week. The Panthers still rank better by overall DVOA and the Eagles have been up and down all season, mainly due to the problems they’ve had on offence. The last couple of weeks have looked better though as Carson Wentz has found his feet behind centre and he got Alshon Jeffery back from injury. The Panthers not only lost to Washington, but needed a last minute sixty yard field goal to beat the New York Giants and with them being on the road for a second week in a row it feels like the Eagles have the edge in this one. I’m not thrilled with the points but I think the Eagles are on the up whilst the Panthers are having a wobble. This is usually the cue for me to get the pick wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Eagles

Texans @ Jaguars (-4.5)

These are two teams that right now are performing pretty similarly in that they both have top ten defences and under-performing offences. The Jaguars come home after losing two on the road and you have to think the defence will be desperate to put things right after shipping forty against the Cowboys last week. The Texans struggling offensive line could be just the tonic to facilitate that and the fact that Deshaun Watson is fighting a chest injury is perhaps not surprising given the amount of times he has been hit. It’s a big if, but if Blake Bortles can stop the turnovers this week then things could easily settle for the Jaguars and I fancy them to bounce back big now that they are finally home. The points worry me though, and in the end I’m going to grab the points in a game that has far too many unknowns for me to feel comfortable making a strong pick.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

Saints @ Ravens (-2.5)

This should be a cracking matchup when the New Orleans Saints’ offence takes on the Baltimore Ravens’ defence and this looks to be one of the more interesting matchups of the week. The Saints are coming of a bye having won their previous four weeks, but this will be as stiff a challenge as they have faced all season and the Saints are actually ranked three places lower in DVOA thanks to the balance the Ravens have across all phases of the game. The numbers for Drew Brees on the road are markedly different and going against the leagues number two defence by DVOA in Baltimore where they Ravens only need a field goal to cover I’m going to back the home team but it would not surprise me if the Saints win this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Cowboys @ Washington (-1.5)

I almost have no idea what to do with this one. After joining the chorus of people stating their frustration with the Cowboys offence, they came up with a game plan that scored forty points against the Jaguars vaunted defence last week and this week they travel to a perennially average Washington team who seem to specialise in being around 8-8. I don’t have a lot of faith in either side so it’s hard to pick. That said the Cowboys defence is just outside the top ten by DVOA and is fifth against the run so whilst Washington have done well when Adrian Peterson has got yards, I’m not sure he can do it week to week or against this defence. The Cowboys have been bad on the road but in this divisional matchup they have won the last four and getting points I’m going to take a risk. Watch Washington prove me wrong now!

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Rams @ 49ers (+10.5)

It’s a trap! The LA Rams are rolling and are the only remaining undefeated team having swept aside all before them and this week they travel to San Francisco to face a 49ers team who have one win so far this season. However, as much as the Rams don’t let up on their opponents, they have some injuries and it has been three weeks since they beat a team by enough points to cover this spread and they are on the road for a third straight week. I’m not predicting an upset, certainly for a team on a short week but I think the 49ers can keep this within eleven.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

Bengals @ Chiefs (-5.5)

I am properly terrified by this game. Even though it wasn’t the worst defeat to the Steelers last week, the Bengals picked up a bunch of knocks and worrying injuries in the secondary. Now they are taking their twenty-fourth ranked defence on the road to face the terrifying Kansas City Chiefs’ juggernaut of an offence. This game had loss written all over it even before it was flexed into prime time, which has historically not been a happy place for the Marvin Lewis led Bengals. I think this will be a shootout and it is possible the Bengals will hang with the Chiefs but I don’t know if they can keep it close enough to make a cover worth a pick. In a second week of emotional hedging, I will hope to be proved wrong but I wasn’t last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Giants @ Falcons (-6.5)

This is a strange primetime matchup in that it pits a New York Giants team struggling to put together much on either side of the ball against an Atlanta Falcons team who are beset by injuries. The Falcons defence is ranked thirty-first in league by DVOA having lost key players up its spine and so their offence has not been able to score enough to win games. The Giants have two world class skills position players, but with the problems on the offensive line and Eli Manning’s struggles they have not been able to really take advantage of them enough to win. The ability of Saquon Barkley is breath taking, but he has been very boom or bust with long runs combined with getting stuffed at the line. This is a big line for a team with two wins, but the Falcons have one unit that is still in the top half by DVOA and with Matt Ryan at home let’s push the boat out as I just can’t trust the Giants on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Somehow we are at week seven and with me barely holding onto a lead in the pick competition we turn to the new week’s games.

Gee:    Week 6   8-7               Overall   46-47
Dan:     Week 6   9-6               Overall   45-48

Broncos @ Cardinals (+2.5)

This is a difficult pick given that whilst the Cardinal have shown enough on defence to beat the spread a couple of times, they are pairing a top ten defence by DVOA with the thirty-first ranked offence that has a fair gap between them and Cleveland at thirtieth and a chasm down to the Bills who are propping up the league. However, whilst the Broncos are somehow ranked thirteenth overall by DVOA and eighteenth on defence, they have also given up and astonishing five hundred and ninety-three rush yards in the last two games. Now I thought this would be historically bad, and whilst it is certainly not good, the Indianapolis Colts actually managed this feat last year and there have been two hundred such streaks since the merger. Now I focussed on this diligently because David Johnson is an incredibly talented back, but it turns out the Cardinals are ranked thirty-second in the league for run attack by DVOA so now I’m even more lost…

I am actually interested in this game, I want to see what is going on with both teams and take a look at Josh Rosen but picking it feels like a fool’s errand. However, there is a picks competition to keep going and so a side has to be taken. Working on my principle of picking the home team Thursday night unless there is a really good reason not to, and given that I’m getting points I’m going to pick the Cardinals but this is what is technically known as a crap shoot.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Week 7 Trivia

This week’s write up of the trivia is too good to cut, and I’m not just saying that because I pulled a point back on Dan:

‘Week 5’s kickers question and Graham Gano’s 63 yarder prompted an unusual bonus question in week 6.

My original Wk6 offering asked which College Football teams had produced the most Hall of Famers. Well Gee warmed up some of his grey cells and correctly answered Notre Dame but didn’t add to this Southern California, both of which have sent 12 of their number. I will, however, award Gee 1 point for the weeks best effort.

The Bonus then asked who holds the IN PLAY record FG distance. Dan was convinced that the record stood at 63 but I hadn’t shot myself in the foot as on 8 December 2013 the Broncos Matt Pater scored a withering 64 yards. I’m glad I specified In Play or we may have seen a new offence of ‘roughing the question master’ when I tell you that College kicker Nick Rose from Texas managed an imperious 80 yards. Yes 80. So it was just 1 point for Gee this week I’m afraid.

Calming things down, here is the question for Week 7 is, very simply – How many of the 32 NFL stadiums have Grass playing surfaces. I’ll give a score of 2 points for an exact hit or a consolation 1 if you are within 3 of the actual figure.’

So let’s hope I can do a little better this week than the last one, we shall see, but first the proof that Dan’s dad is doing so much better at setting trivia questions that we are at answering them.

‘I don’t remember asking any questions so far about College Football yet its popularity is huge. Just this once I will allow the use of Google just this once:

Which college has produced the most Hall of Famers in pro football?

OK so here comes the promised Week 6 BONUS and this one is for 2 points so we can get the scoreboard ticking:

Who holds the in-game record all time FG distance and what is it?’

Okay, so this is a pair of interesting questions. I have a couple of theories on the first one, I think Miami Hurricanes have a lot because of their history on defence, and USC have a bunch as well but I think the college with the most is actually not one you might think of now because Notre Dame used to be huge as a football team (I’ve heard this thanks to listening to Tony Kornheiser) so that’s what I’m nervously going for.

The kicking thing is going to drive me round the bend whilst Dan is obsessed with it so think he’s going to beat me but my guess, and it is a shot in the dark, is Sebastian Janikowski but it’s a guess… Let’s say sixty-four yards as Gano’s last week was sixty-three.

‘I’m taking a decent lead here in the Trivia after a slow start!

So question 1, I am stuck on. I don’t watch and don’t follow college football, so I’m going to go with Texas A&M as one of the only ones I can name off the top of my head!

And for question 2, I think dad’s snookered himself here, because I think Graham Gano’s kick was the joint longest as it goes! So I’ll say along with him, Adam Vinatieri, and 63 yards.’

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-3.5)

This is a strange game in that the Atlanta Falcons are really struggling as the injuries reached a critical mass early, particularly on defence and so whilst the offence is ranked eleventh, they haven’t been able to overcome the problems on defence. This week they welcome a Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming off a bye but they were last been seen getting dismantled by the Chicago Bears. They are returning with Jameis Winston as the starter and a defence that ranks dead last in the league by DVOA. The up and down nature of the Bucs play doesn’t inspire confidence but neither does the Falcons, so how do you pick? The two teams are ranked next to each other and whilst the Falcons are at home and do have a better quarterback, the extra half point just makes me worry yet I can’t find it in myself to put my trust in the Buccaneers. I could be really wrong on this.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

‘Difficult pick straight off the bat here. I’ll go with Atlanta as I think they’ve got enough to win this one, especially with Home advantage.’

Bills @ Texans (-7.5)

This line makes me nervous as the Texans have not exactly been convincing. Bill O’Brien failed to co-ordinate a lot of points in the red zone last week and got Deshaun Watson hit too much and his defence, whilst looking good in the front seven has problems in coverage. This week they welcome a Bills team who compete and have somehow managed to win two games despite the deficiencies in their roster and this is making this game and absolute nightmare to pick. I think the Texans are more likely to win than not, but the Bills have twice pulled an upset and the fact that the Texans need to win by eight points to cover is definitely worrying me. In the end I can’t quite back the Texans to do that, but I could look very silly by the end of this evening.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

‘The Bills have looked a different team to that of the first couple of weeks of the year. That being said, the Texans look good too, but given the size of the spread, I’ll go with Buffalo.’

Bears @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The good news for the Miami Dolphins is that Laremy Tunsil has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to play against the Chicage Bears. The bad news is that the Bears defence is currently ranked first in the league by DVOA and Khalil Mack has been an MVP candidate through the first four weeks of the season. Coming off their bye the Bears will be rested and looking to build on the offensive performance of their last game where Mitch Trubisky threw for six touchdowns. This is not the team that the Dolphins will exactly have chosen to try to arrest their two game losing streak against, but it’s not the worst either. The points at home are tempting but the injuries to the Dolphins worry me and with Tannehill dealing with a shoulder injury and the Bears having a week to consolidate on the best performance by Trubisky so far I’m plumping for the Bears.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

‘Even with the possibility of no Tannerhill, leaving us open to the return of Brock Osweiler…!’

Steelers @ Bengals (-2.5)

I’m really not sure about this game. The Bengals have scraped several wins this season and I’m still waiting to see how the Bengals offence holds up minus Tyler Eifert long term and whether the defence can really solidify. They host a Steelers team who got a good win against the Falcons last week and who have generally had the better of the Bengals in this bitter rivalry. The offence is top ten by DVOA and the defence looked better last week and given the history of this game I am going to make the emotional hedge of backing the Steelers and hoping to be proven wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

‘The Steelers are a bit of a mess at the minute… and if the Bengals can play how they did for the second half of last week, they should do this fairly easily.’

Chargers @ Browns (+0.5)

This should be an entertaining game as the LA Chargers and their third ranked offence by DVOA travel to face a two win Browns team and their second ranked by DVOA defence. I can see why Hue Jackson is trying to keep his team grounded but it’s just good to see the long suffering Cleveland fans excited about their quarterback. This is not an easy journey for the Chargers who seem to specialise in close games but are traveling cross country to play an early game and in front of an energised stadium I’m tempted by the Browns but there is a huge gap between them in rankings and Philip Rivers just has me backing the Chargers. I think…

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Browns

‘They’ve kept it close all season in Cleveland. I think they’ll win this week.’

Colts @ Jets (-2.5)

This is a strange game for me to pick as the New York Jets have been up and down all season and last week rookie Sam Darnold throwing three touchdowns as the Jets beat the Broncos. This week they face an Indianapolis Colts team coming off a long week following their Thursday night loss to the Patriots. Andrew Luck continues to look good as the Colts continue to compete every week and have several times made the games closer than the scores might suggest. As a consequence, I’m finding this one a little hard to pick but with the Jets at home and only needing a field goal to win I’m going for the Jets and let’s see how I do.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

‘This is close. Tough pick…. I think I’m going to go with New York purely because they’ve got the home advantage.’

Seahawks @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks may not have got back to winning ways at home last week, but they made the LA Rams really work for their victory and are definitely beginning to look like they are establishing Pete Carroll’s old template of tough defence and running the ball. This may not be your legion of boom defence but I like them going against an Oakland Raiders team who have not looked good this season and who look slow on defence. I could be wrong, particularly as the fact that this game is the first in London this year throws the home/road situation into flux, but I just fancy the Seahawks to keep themselves in the playoff mix with a win this week.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

‘Unfortunately for the Raiders, I think they’re going to go 0-2 at Wembley here. I’m going for the Seahawks, but as with all of the Wembley games, it really could go either way.’

Cardinals @ Vikings (-10.5)

The Minnesota Vikings got back to winning ways last week and now host an Arizona Cardinals team who got their own first win. In fact the Cardinals have a top ten defence by DVOA and have quietly only lost the two games before that by two and three points. I don’t think they can suddenly turn the Vikings over on the road but this is too many points for a team that are still righting themselves after a difficult start, even if they do have a genuine home advantage.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

‘The Vikings will win this one, but I don’t think it’ll be by more thank 10.5 points, so I’ll go with the Cards.’

Panthers @ Washington (-1.5)

In something of a theme for this week I am really unsure about this game. We last saw Washington getting thrashed by a New Orleans Saints offence that seemed to have exactly the right mix of deception and skill on offence to expose their defence. It was bad enough that Josh Norman got sat but the Panthers are a different team on offence and this season have a surprisingly lowly rated defence. They had a tough time last week, needing a sixty-three yard field goal to beat the struggling Giants and so I really have no idea on what I can rely on in this game. That said I have more faith in what Norv Turner and Cam Newton are building on offence and with Thomas Davis coming back from a PED suspension for the defence I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

‘Hmmm… I really don’t know which way to go here… I think I’m going to call it as a Panthers win, but I don’t feel confident about it.’

Rams @ Broncos (+6.5)

So having had a tough time on the road in Seattle, the LA Rams now roll into Mile High Stadium to take on the Denver Broncos. The Seahawks demonstrated a formula for beating the Rams, even if they couldn’t pull off the upset and the Broncos actually have the number one ranked rush attack by DVOA so they have half of the Seahawk’s formula down. The problem is that this is not the Denver defence of recent seasons and can Von Miller get enough pressure to disrupt the rolling Rams offence? The Rams seemed to cope with two of their starting receivers leaving the game with concussions last week but both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp have cleared concussion protocol and will play this week. The question is can they beat this big line, which they have done four times already this season, but on the road in Denver I do wonder if they might come unstuck but given that this pits the league’s third ranked team in points scored per game versus the twenty-second ranked team in points allowed per game, I’m going to back the Rams.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Rams

‘Rams are going to continue their unbeaten run this week, going 6-0 against the Broncos.’

Jaguars @ Cowboys (+2.5)

The Dallas Cowboys lost last week in overtime and this week they welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team whose third ranked defence by DVOA has the players to make life very difficult for a static offence who asks its receivers to win one on one matchups and whose offensive line and run game are not dominating as they have in recent years. What gives them a chance however is that Blake Bortles has pretty much been peak Bortles this year, with up and down performances that can’t be helped by Leonard Fournette’s injuries. I think the Jaguars are the better team but coming off a difficult road loss to the Chiefs but I do wonder if a second road game might suffer the same problem yet I can’t quite bring myself to back the Cowboys pulling off the upset despite getting points at home.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

‘Another close one, but I think the Cowboys will do this. Zeke’s back on form so I think he’ll have a good one this week.’

Ravens @ Titans (+2.5)

So the Tennessee Titans are back home this week and facing a Baltimore Ravens team having lost on the road to the Buffalo Bills the week before. Last week I argued that the Titans’ offence looked to have turned a corner but that didn’t hold true and this week they face a Ravens’ defence that are top five in the league by DVOA, which they have paired with a mid-ranked offence and slightly lower special teams ranking than usual. The Ravens may have lost to the Cleveland Browns last week, but they are used to the scrappy games the Titans have been playing all season but there are six home underdogs this week and so far I have backed the road favourite in each game. I have a feeling not all of those are going to come in and the Titans look to be the best bet to cover for me so I’m going to grab them at home and hope…

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

‘Other than the Dolphins game in week one, Tennessee sound like they’re doing some good things this year. I’ll go for them this week against Baltimore.’

Chiefs @ Patriots (-3.5)

I am really excited about this matchup that pits the Andy Reid’s high flying unbeaten team against a Patriots that turned the corner at the beginning of October and who have won two straight pretty convincingly whilst scoring thirty-eight points. They need to do this given that their defence ranks nineteenth by DVOA but that is positively stratospheric compared to the Chiefs’ ranking of twenty-eighth. Something has to give and it just feels more likely that the Chiefs will end up 5-1 than the Patriots falling back to 3-3 despite the fact that the Chiefs won this very game last season, although that was in week one and the Patriots went on to the Super Bowl. I’m backing Brady and Belichick with revenge on the mind although I don’t feel that confident about it.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

‘Wow, this should be a good one. Unfortunately for Kansas (and everyone fighting to keep up in the AFC East!) I think they’re going to get their first loss this week. I’m calling Patriots.’

49ers @ Packers (-9.5)

This game looked a very different fixture when the TV games were selected, but whilst CJ Beathard has not been a terrible replacement quarterback for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, it is hard to see the 49ers getting much on the road against the Packers. The question though is can they keep this game to within ten and that is trickier as Aaron Rodgers has been pretty unimpressed with how the offence has been playing as he fights the knee injury that has hobbled him for most of the season. The Packers are coming off a loss to the Detroit Packers, who interestingly now have three straight wins over the Packers but we have to go back to 2015 for the last time these two team faced each other and 2012 for the 49ers to be making a trip to Lambeau Field. A big part of last week’s Packers loss was Mason Crosby missing four field goal attempts and an extra point and that is likely to be on his mind in this nationally televised game. I’m really not sure how the Packers are going to look this week and whilst I expect them to win, the ten points require this feels like too many even if they are at home. I’m going back and forth but I’ve kept getting bitten by big lines this season but the 49ers just lost by ten points to the Cardinals at home and so I’m risking the Packers.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

‘I just cant back the Packers by 10 points here. It’s too much of a big spread, even with the 49ers not being great.’

Well, I managed to drop another point back in the trivia competition with Dan and just about managed to stay ahead of him in the picks competition whilst slipping back into a losing overall record. Time to re-evaluate my process but just because I was wrong doesn’t necessarily mean the picks were.

Gee:     Week 5   4-11              Overall   38-40
Dan:    Week 5   7-8                Overall   36-42

Eagles @ Giants (+2.5)

So the week six Thursday night game pits two divisional foes against each and both are struggling for different reasons. The Giants offence continues to struggle with Eli Manning unable to turnaround his form of recent seasons despite the moves over the summer and the defence currently ranks down in the twenties by DVOA. The Eagles were struggling with injuries even before they lost Jay Ajayi for the season with an ACL tear and whilst their defence is holding in with a ranking of eleventh by DVOA, the offence has not found a rhythm and is currently ranked twenty-fourth.

My first instinct is that the Eagles will find a way to win this game but what makes me hesitate is that the Giants put a very credible effort up against the Panthers, are at home on a Thursday night, and are getting points. I think this game is too important for the Eagles to lose having already lost two straight and with them only needing a field goal to cover I’m going to back them on the road, but with the way things have been going I would hardly be surprised if the Giants managed to cover or win.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:     Eagles

Week 6 Trivia

‘In Week 5 I asked who kicked the longest field goal of the 2017/18 season.

Good answers all round, I can see the logic in both but this time the point goes to Dan.

Strangely when Panthers’ Graham Gano slotted a 63yd game winning FG against the Giants in Week 5 he eclipsed last season’s best kick and notched one of the longest in history (in a game NOT practice). I feel a BONUS question coming on!

Eyes down for Week 6 then:

I don’t remember asking any questions so far about College Football yet its popularity is huge. Just this once I will allow the use of Google, just this once:

Which college has produced the most Hall of Famers in pro football?

OK so here comes the promised Week 6 BONUS and this one is for 2 points so we can get the scoreboard ticking:

Who holds the in-game record all time FG distance and what is it?’

Well despite dropping points to Dan and his dad on Thursday I don’t actually feel bad about my pick, particularly given Adam Vinatieri hit the post with a field goal attempt but I can’t drop too many more as we head into the rest of the week five picks. However, first I have to try to get myself back level with Dan in the trivia question comptition so here’s a reminder of this week’s question set by Dan’s Dad, who will also be offering his thoughts on this week’s games with Dan being on holiday:

‘Which NFL player kicked a 62-yard field goal, the longest of the 2017/8 season?’

Now I feel relatively confident about this questions as if I’m right, the Bengals drafted this kicker last season, placed him on the practice squad so I had to watch him be picked up by the Eagles, kick a sixty yard field goal and win a Super Bowl so I believe that the player is Jake Elliott.

‘I seem to remember us covering this kick on the pod last year, what with me being a kicking aficionado – it was The Mexico game, and the kick was made by Stephen Gotskowski (I googled him, but only to check how to spell his name, I promise!) for the Patriots.’

Falcons @ Steelers (-3.5)

This game is a huge one for both teams who each only have one win and can’t really afford to lose. Neither team are exactly playing much defence although the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defence is ranked significantly better at nineteenth by DVOA as opposed to the thirtieth ranking of the Atlanta Falcons who have lost yet another starter. The Falcons’ offence on the other hand have been playing really well and are ranked top ten whilst the Steelers have not quite jelled so far. This should lead to an exciting game, but does not make it easy to pick as the form book does not offer much help yet with the Falcons on the road and really suffering through injuries I’m leaning Steelers for the win. However, the extra half point is making it a really awkward pick for me but in the end I’m going to back the Steelers against a dome team on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:     Falcons

‘I’ve changed several times on this one so there’s a 50-50 chance I’ve ended in the wrong camp but I think the Falcons have something to prove and even away I’m picking them.

Dan’s Dad Says FALCONS’

Titans @ Bills (+3.5)

I have been impressed with the Tennessee Titans’ ability to grind out wins over the last few weeks and after beating the Eagles in overtime they travel to Buffalo to face a Bills team that crashed back into their bad season last week with a shutout loss to the Packers. With the hope from the Vikings win quickly fading for the Bills I feel like they face a Titans team on the up. I thought that Marcus Mariota looked much better last week and the new offence seems to be showing signs of where Matt LaFleur wants to take them so whilst I could be wrong, I think the Titans will win and cover this.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:     Titans

‘This isn’t sour grapes based on a fluke result in the Twin Cities but I think the Titans form tells me they will more than match the modest spread here.

Dan’s Dad Says TITANS’

Dolphins @ Bengals (-6.5)

So here we are then, the big Wrong Football rivalry game that sees Dan’s Miami Dolphins travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals and the Dolphins will be looking to bounce back from the hammering they took in New England last week. I think the Dolphins are a better team than they showed in that game but I like how the Bengals are playing this year. The loss of Tyler Eifert is big for the offence and the defence desperately needs to improve on third down, although they welcome back Vontaze Burfict this week. I think the Bengals are more likely to win this game than not but this line feels high, and whilst that could be because I’m something of a nervous fan I’m not backing the Bengals to win by seven and will hope to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:     Dolphins

‘Quite a week for Dan to disappear but he would without doubt gone Dolphins. I, however, can be a little more objective and a good score in the ‘for’ column, despite a higher than average against count still puts me in the Cincinnati camp

Dan’s Dad Says BENGALS’

Ravens @ Browns (+2.5)

The Baltimore Ravens passed one test last week when they beat the Steelers but they now face a different divisional test as they travel to face a Cleveland Browns team that you could argue should be 4-0 this season. Certainly they were unlucky last week and in Baker Mayfield they look to have finally found someone who could be the franchise quarterback this reboot version of the Browns has never had. However, the Ravens have really looked good so far this season with an offence that is much improved and a defence that is once again top five in the league by DVOA. I think the Browns will really give the franchise their fans hate for leaving Cleveland a hell of a game, but with the options that Joe Flacco now has to throw to and the not so secret weapon of kicker Justin Tucker I like the Ravens to win by at least a field goal. I could live with being wrong though…

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:     Ravens

‘In the 1^st of 5 divisional match ups this week I can’t see the Browns repeating the success against the Jets in Week 2. As that leaves just one team I’m going Baltimore

Dan’s Dad Says RAVENS’

Broncos @ Jets (-0.5)

Both of these teams have lost their last two games but in very different manners as the Denver Broncos really pushed the Chiefs whilst the New York Jets have not looked the same since their week one win over the Lions. The question is can the Broncos win on the road despite the horrid time slot for them and a short week, but given how the Jets have played over recent weeks I have to think the answer to that is more likely than not yes.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:     Broncos

‘Much as I have a lifelong (well since 1972) affinity to Joe Nameth and the Jets I do see the Broncos breaking their 2 game losing streak although this is one which I wouldn’t be surprised sliding the other way.

Dan’s Dad Says BRONCOS’

Packers @ Lions (+1.5)

I really don’t have a good handle on the Detroit Lions as after what looked to be a turn the corner win against the Patriots they followed that up with a loss to the struggling Dallas Cowboys. This week they welcome a Green Bay Packers team who shut out the Bills last week, but who Aaron Rodgers described as, ‘terrible on offense’ in what I’ve seen spun as creative tension between him and head coach Mike McCarthy. The points are really tempting, but I just don’t trust the Lions who haven’t even worked out that rookie Kerryon Johnson should be their primary running back and in my experience it seldom pays to bet against even an injured Aaron Rodgers unless you are very sure of the team he is going against.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Lions

‘Another divisional game I think this one will go the way of the streaks, particularly with a very small spread. It sticks in my throat but I’m going Green Bay.

Dan’s Dad Says PACKERS (spits and considers taking up alcohol again to take the sour taste away)’

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-3.5)

This game includes the matchup of the week in my opinion as we get to see this season’s break out star Patrick Mahomes running Andy Reid’s highflying offence go against the Jacksonville Jaguars vaunted defence (even if they are second in the league by DVOA to the Chicago Bears) in what should be a cracking game. The Chiefs have paired their offence with the league’s now second worst defence so all of their games have been entertaining and certainly at points this season the Jaguars’ offence has demonstrated the capacity to take advantage of this defensive weakness. However, most of whether they will or not falls on the combination of how the Jaguars approach this game and which version of Blake Bortles plays. He does have the capacity to play really well and were this game in Jacksonville I might feel another way but Mahomes and the Chiefs have so far kept finding a way to win and in front of their vociferous fans I’m going to back the Chiefs to do so again.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:     Jaguars

‘I already have the feeling that the free scoring Chiefs could go all the way this season and with home advantage and a low spread it has got to be the Chiefs. I expect the Jags though to make the playoffs and be in the shake up come January.

Dan’s Dad Says CHIEFS’

Giants @ Panthers (-6.5)

The New York Giants lost again last week and in pretty straight forward fashion at home against the Saints. The offseason overhaul of their offence doesn’t look to have worked and this week they travel to face a rested Carolina Panthers team coming off a bye and a 2-1 start. The Panthers’ defence may be an uncharacteristic rank of twenty-fourth by DVOA but their offence is rolling with Norv Turner as their new co-ordinator despite the injury to Greg Osen and I think this should be a relatively straight forward game for them. I have a slight pause about this laying this number of points but I don’t think the Giants have enough going at the moment to cover this line on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Giants

‘Nothing I was measuring really gave me a solid clue here but I think that the Panthers are probably more together so the spread was more a nudge than a clincher

Dan’s Dad Says PANTHERS’

Raiders @ Chargers (-5.5)

This will be another of the strange home games for the LA Chargers where there will be more away fans than home fans and I suspect it will be particularly bad for this game given the Raiders historic ties and popularity within LA. It has been an up and down start to the season for the Chargers, although having to face the Rams and Chiefs in the first four weeks is a pretty tough start. They welcome a Raiders team coming off their first win of the season who have looked better since the week one loss to the Rams. I’m still not convinced about the Raiders long term plans and trading away Khalil Mack, but Marshawn Lynch has somehow managed to maintain his fearsome playing style at thirty-two. I’m not sure the Raiders will win this game but I like them to keep it closer than six points against a Chargers team who frequently don’t seem to be able to get out of their own way despite the excellent play of Philip Rivers.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:     Chargers

‘The 3^rd divisional game this week brings together two very closely matched teams and choosing was not easy. Until I saw the spread I was edging towards Raiders but the spread and home field advantage left me ticking the Chargers

Dan’s Dad Says  CHARGERS’

Rams @ Seahawks (+7.5)

The LA Rams are rolling even with multiple injuries at corner, thanks in no small part to their league dominating offence. This week they travel to Seattle to face a Seahawks team who are 2-2 despite playing three games on the road but the Seahawks also had to work hard to beat the Cardinals last week and lost Earl Thomas for the season with a broken leg. Despite having Russell Wilson their offence ranks twenty-seventh in the league by DVOA and it is hard to see them winning this game even with their famous home field advantage. The difficulty in this game is that as it is divisional so you could see it being closer than normal for the Rams but I just don’t think this iteration of the Seahawks will keep up and the Rams stay as aggressive against anyone so whilst the Seattle crowd does make me pause, they also had to watch their team lose by thirty-five points last season in this fixture and I think it will be big differential again. Watch the Seahawks now keep it close!

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:     Rams

‘Yet another divisional game and at last one where I thought it would be easy. Two teams that are on winning streaks but the Rams 4 on the spin and +73 point net for me is why even with a 7 point spread away from home I cant see past them

Dan’s Dad Says RAMS’

Vikings @ Eagles (-3.5)

This is an important game for two teams who have not looked quite right so far this season. This is strange for the Minnesota Vikings as the combination of new offensive coordinator John DeFillippo and quarterback Kirk Cousins looks to be working really well, but only has them a ranking of nineteenth by DVOA and apart from losing to the Rams and drawing with the Packers despite Aaron Rodgers knee injury, they found a way to get beaten convincingly by the Bills. This week they take on a Philadelphia Eagles team who just don’t look right even with the return of Carson Wentz who lost an overtime game to the Titans last week. The vaunted pass rush of last season doesn’t look to be the same although the defence has remained top ten by DVOA but the offence ranks twenty-fourth. I find this a hard game to predict and I thought it was interesting that Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said he could be over coaching the defence so in the end I’m going to grab the extra half point for the road team as I’m really not sure how this one is going to play out.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:     Vikings

‘This would normally be seen as a competitive game and indeed it may well be one but both are unusually on losing streaks. Who has something to prove, well both really but a modest spread and home advantage I think plays to the Eagles. That said against the Rams Mike Tice seemed to have started a turn round – and the time since Thursday night will have given him time to work on things. My fear is that there is a lot to work on and the Vikings’ defence are not the wall they were last term. Sorry to say, it’s the Eagles (but if I’m wrong I will be happy !)

Dan’s Dad Says EAGLES’

Cardinals @ 49ers (-4.5)

The Arizona Cardinals didn’t win last week, but Josh Rosen kept them competitive after Sam Bradford did the same the week before against the Bears. However, they still don’t have a win and this week they travel to face a San Francisco 49ers team who managed to keep the game competitive against the Chargers despite having to start CJ Beathard at quarterback. This looks to be one of the better chances for the Cardinals to get a win this season as there is only a solitary win between both these teams through week four, but it’s hard to see it happening on the road for the Cardinals. That said they have kept their last two games to within four but as this is their second road game of the season I do think the 49ers will win but in the end this is too many points for me to give away with a backup quarterback starting and the list of injuries the 49ers have.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:     Cardinas

‘The last of this week’s divisional games sees 2 teams well in the mire. The Cardinals are not scoring but shipping points which is not a good combination, hence looking for a 1^st win of the season. So will that spur them on? Well at home possibly, and with a spread perhaps, but neither is there for them so I’m going for the 49ers

Dan’s Dad Says SF 49ERS’

Cowboys @ Texans (-3.5)

The battle of Texas sees the Cowboys travel from Dallas to Houston to face the Texans in what is kind of an intriguing game. Both teams are coming off wins but the Cowboys have been struggling on offence all season, particularly throwing the ball, and they have lost both of their road games so far. The Texans may have only got their first win last week but Deshaun Watson is beginning to look more like himself and the front seven of the Texans is starting to look strong as the various players who were injured last season start to look like their olds selves. The Cowboys look ill equipped to take advantage of the problems the Texans are having in coverage whilst also missing Sean Lee on defence again. I don’t have a strong feel for this game and I’ll likely watch it this week as I’ve only seen Cowboys’ highlights, but I fancy the Texans to win their second game and so I’ll reluctantly back them to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:     Texans

‘When teams are 2-2 and 1-3 and with similar scoring profiles a lot comes down to gut feel and spread. Both have 1 game winning streaks and the spread is not helping but that along with home field advantage and I’ll go Texans

Dan’s Dad Says TEXANS’

Washington @ Saints (-6.5)

I’m really looking forward to seeing the Monday night game this week as the New Orleans Saints welcome a rested Washington team that has a top ten offence by DVOA and a defence that ranks twelfth. The Saints meanwhile have been rolling on offence but have really struggled on defence, essentially making them the NFC Chiefs but without the unbeaten record. However, the consistency of Drew Brees has to be admired and the offensive production is why the Saints are seen as such heavy favourites in this one. The issue for me is the up down nature of a Washington team that has paired convincing wins against the Cardinals and Packers with a bad home loss to the Colts. Sure the rest will help with them coming of a bye but will they be competitive against a Saints team in a dome? I’m going to suggest that with that week’s rest and going against the twenty-ninth ranked defence in the league that Washington can keep this game to within seven. Whether they will or not is a different matter but that’s why they play the games.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:     Saints

‘On the one hand both teams are on winning streaks, and are better than .500 so far. The Saints have home field and are scoring strongly, but conceding too. Will they win by 7? Possibly thanks to playing at home so I’m picking them this week.

Dan’s Dad Says SAINTS’