Category Archives: Picks Competition

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week 3

23 Thursday Sep 2021

Posted by in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

≈ Leave a comment

We’re already gearing up for week three, and Dan managed to claw back two of my early three point lead as I followed up a strong week one with a poor week two. Fingers crossed I get myself setup shortly so I’m back on and even keel.

Gee:Week 2:  6 – 10Overall:  16 – 16
Dan:Week 2:  8 – 8Overall:  15 – 17

Panthers @ Texans (+7.5)

The Texans have put up credible efforts so far, but having lost starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor to a hamstring injury, they are giving rookie Davis Mills his first start against a Panthers’ defence who have ten sack through two games. I am interested to see how Mills does, and positively looking forward to seeing Christian McCaffrey play and how Sam Darnold looks with his new team. I don’t think the game will be an embarrassment for the Texans, but it’s a tough ask and whilst the points do concern me more than a little, with a developmental rookie thrust by injury into his first start I have to back the Panthers in this one.

This of course means that Mills will play great and will be a new gem from the last draft, which I will happy take in return for a dropped pick!

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Survivor Competition

I thought Dan was mad when he picked the Bengals last week, and my scepticism was proven well founded as the Bears beat them at home whilst I managed a second straight scoring week to take an early lead. I don’t want to worry fans of the Cardinals, but Dan stated he needed to get off the mark this week and is plumping for them travelling to face the Jags. Meanwhile, I’m backing the Broncos at home in the early season to be too much for the Jets, and I’m just hoping that I’m not putting too much faith in a 2-0 team taking on a team without a win even if it is at heigh altitude. I don’t expect Zach Wilson to throw four interceptions again this week, but Denver is a tough place for the rookie quarterback to play early in the season against a Vic Fangio defence.

Current Score

Gee: 2
Dan: 0

Week 3 Selection:

Gee:    Broncos
Dan:    Cardinals

Bold Prediction of the Week

I stress that this is a bold prediction, and it’s possibly one with too much emphasis on a headline about Roethliberger having a pec injury and TJ Watt having a problem with his groin, but this week I’m going for the Bengals to beat the Steelers. Given the history between the two franchises this is one I wasn’t waiting for Dan to confirm was bold enough.

2021 Week Two Picks

19 Sunday Sep 2021

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

It has to be a late and slightly truncated picks post today as I am being treated for my birthday so I will run few a quick bits and get my post up.

This week’s Thursday night game might not have looked like much on paper, but the Giants visiting Washington provided a back and forth game where after a slow start Taylor Heinicke dragged Washington back into the game after the Giants took a lead in the first quarter.

The Giants could and possibly should have wont his game, particularly as Washington kicker Dustin Hopkins missed his first attempt at a game winning field goal, but after a back breaking offsice penaly against Dexter Lawrence, Hopkins got a retry and just about put the winning kick through.

Giants’ quarterback Daniel Jones actually finished the game with the better quarterback rating and had long run for a touchdown called back for an iffy holding penalty, but the Giants fall to 0-2, although the Falcons might offer an easier chance to get back to winning ways, but let’s see how Atlanta look in their second game.

As for Washington, the defence is giving away points given how good people (including myself) have proclaimed them to be, but they have their first win on the board and

Early Games:

The three games I will be watching this week all come from the early games. Of course I will be watching the Bengals, hoping they can build on their opening week win whilst worrying about them having played a full period of overtime in week one and travelling to take on Chicago so I will be very interested to see if they can consolidate their good start.

The game I’m watching out of pure interest is the Bills visit to Miami to face Dan’s Dolphins. I both want to see how the Bills react to their week one loss, but also think this is a cracking game that as an AFC East showdown should provide plenty of entertainment as well as tension given both teams’s aims for the season.

The final game I’ll be watching is Dan’s pick, as he wants me to see how good the Eagles look when facing sterner opposition, although the 49ers are once again struggling with injury, but should be good test for the Eagles who were underestimated by so many of us going into the season.

Bengals @ Bears (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Texans @ Browns (-12.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Rams @ Colts (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Bills @ Dolphins (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Patriots @ Jets (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

49ers @ Eagles (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Raiders @ Steelers (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Saints @ Panthers (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Broncos @ Jaguars (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Late Games:

The late games all have their intrigues this week.

The Cardinals are coming off an excellent opening day win butwill they be able to maintain that against a Vikings team who will be looking to recover after the opening week loss against the Bengals in overtime.

The Falcons had a terrible start in week one so new head coach Arthur Smith will be looking for a reaction against the Buccaneers and whilst it might be a bit much to expect them to win, you would expect some kind of reaction and I have backed them to cover the big line.

The Cowboys are already picking up injuries, but after looking good against the Bucs in week one even if they lost, they will be hoping to get a win against the Chargers who’ll be welcoming fans to their new home for the first time.

Finally the Titans will be desperate to bounce back from a horrible start to the season, but on the road against a nasty looking Seahawks team who’ll have notoriously noisy fans back it could very easily be an 0-2 start fro them.

Vikings @ Cardinals (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-12.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Cowboys @ Chargers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Titans @ Seahawks (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Sunday Night Football:

Chiefs @ Ravens (+3.5)

This should be an absolute cracking game, which is only not on my watch list because of seeing the other three AFC North teams at least twice a year and sometimes more depending on the Thursday night schedule. The stories about Lamar Jackson’s 0-3 record against the Chiefs are certainly prominent in the build up, and the injuries the Ravens have picked up certainly have made the start of the season difficult. I may live to regret this, but this is just enough points to make go with the Ravens to cover, even if I suspect that Patrick Mahomes might win out yet again.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Monday Night Football

Lions @ Packers (-10.5)

You have to think there will be a reaction from the Packers after their woeful showing against the Saints last week, and the Lions are getting these many points for a reason. The consensus line is actually a little higher, but given how the Lions fought back last week I’m still ready to give them a chance to stick within eleven given this line contains an extra half point through a key number.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week 2

16 Thursday Sep 2021

Posted by in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

I was incredibly naïve yesterday. Here’s my opening line from what was meant to be my mid-week post:

‘It feels like a long time since I have had a normal blog schedule but having closed out week one we are on our way into the marathon of an eighteen week NFL regular season so let’s if we can establish a routine once more.’

Clearly both the IT and football gods that I don’t believe in as an atheist but like to talk about as a writer because sometimes you just have to anthropomorphise the random fluctuations of probability, chortled to themselves and said to themselves we’ll show him.

So before I get into he picks competition and survivor picks from week two, here’s the games section of my post from yesterday that did get written.

I promise not to do this every week, even though I always watch the Bengals, but that’s where I’m starting as they beat the visiting Vikings 27-24 in overtime. It seemed to take a little while for both teams to get going and the Bengals did their best to give this game away but after getting the game’s only takeaway in overtime rookie kicker Ewan McPherson hit a thirty-four yard field goal with zeros on the clock to seal the victory in a pretty much dream start for a kicker’s career. The Bengals had some high points, Joe Burrow looked good and hit Ja’Marr Chase for a fifty-yard touchdown at the end of the first half as the rookie receiver and LSU teammate of Burrow’s managed to go for one hundred receiving yards in his first NFL regular season start. So much for dropping everything. That said, as good a trio of receiver as Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins look to be, Burrow still took too many hits passing the ball but Joe Mixon ran for one hundred and twenty-nine yards and given the turmoil of recent seasons on the offensive line, I’m inclined to see how this works out over the coming months even if I’m not convinced yet. The defence also looked better, although I wonder about the run defence again and they were blitzing more as well. One of the Vikings’ comeback touchdowns was scored against a cover-0 blitz and call me overly cautious, but I always want at least one deep safety. Still, this could be the start of positive progress in year three for Zac Taylor, but he’s going to have to win consistently to prove the Bengals are moving in the right direction.

As for the Vikings, it feels like a pre-season of turmoil might have had some impact on the field. Despite looking dangerous multiple times running the ball, Dalvin Cook could only finish with sixty-one yards from his twenty carries and it was Kirk Cousins who provided much of the impetus for the offence, even if things did start slowly. It does still seem to be the case that whilst Cousins is clearly a good quarterback, he struggles to elevate at critical moments in the game and whilst you can certainly win with a quarterback like that, a lot has to be right around them for an offence to succeed and things will have to come together for this team if the Vikings want to get back to the playoffs.

Moving on to the second game that I watched from Sunday, the Washington Football Team hosted the LA Chargers and the Football Team put up what was a pretty valiant effort after Ryan Fitzpatrick was lost early in the game suffering a dislocated hip, but ultimately lost the 16 – 20. The LA Chargers looked good on both sides of the ball, which was impressive as the Washington pass rush looked good and I like the look of Football Team’s defence again this season, but it was always going to be hard for Washington to truly compete once Taylor Heinicke took control of the offence in replacement of Fitzpatrick. Not that Heinicke played badly, but his one hundred and twenty-two yards from eleven completions simply couldn’t compete with Justin Herbert’s three-hundred-yard game as the Charger’s second year quarterback looked every bit a player building on his offensive rookie of the year performance from 2020. There was in fact, a lot to like about the Chargers under rookie head coach Brandon Staley and whilst it’s early in his tenure, and the hype might be overdone, there’s genuine promise there. As for Washington, you trust Ron Rivera to keep them competitive, even under difficult circumstances but a lot will depend on how Heinicke responds to being made starter again, having paused his degree to sign and start the Football Team’s playoff game last season he has another opportunity to further cement a place in the league. Heinicke has at least had a pre-season this year, but it’s a quick turnaround to week two as Washington head to New York to fact the Giants tonight.

The final game I watched from Sunday was interesting rather than enthralling as the Chicago Bears confirmed the reasons why Andy Dalton is starting, given their offensive line problems and how quickly Dalton was getting the ball out. Though the Bears didn’t look terrible, the LA Rams looked formidable as they ran out 34 – 14 in front of fans in their new stadium for the first time. The Rams were not messing about on offence either, three plays into the season and out comes the Stafford deep ball for a sixty-seven yard touchdown to Van Jefferson. The Bears did manage to pull within five before half time, but early in second half another deep pass, this time a fifty-six yard play where Cooper Kupp got behind the defence and had empty turf between him and the end zone. There had been plenty of positive noises coming from the Rams about the addition of Stafford and this was clearly a positive start. The lopsided nature of the roster has to be a concern as an injury to one of their mega stars could be a real problem, but that is clearly a bet they are willing to make. For the Bears, as I wrote I do see why they have begun the season with Dalton and I’ve heard enough people I respect say that rookie Justin Fields has talent but not ready yet, but it’s only a mater of time before he gets the opportunity to start, particularly if the Bears keep losing. Maybe we will have a clearer idea after Dalton returns to Cincinnati to face the team who drafted him.

Now with that out the way, let’s turn our attention to the picks competition where I got out to a winning start with a positive score of 10 points in week one taking an early three point lead, but we’re barely past the start line so it’s pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things so let’s get to Competition Thursday proper.

Gee:Week 1:  10 – 6Overall:  10 – 6
Dan:Week 1:  7 – 9Overall:  7 – 9

Giants @ Washington (-3.5)

The Giants got off to a rough start and early short week to a division rival is not an easy follow up. It might help that Washington are starting their backup quarterback as mentioned earlier, but these two teams are right next to each other in the DVOA rankings with with nearly inverse offence and defence rankings. I’m concerned about the direction the Giants have been travelling for the last few years, and whilst I saw some positives in what Joe Judge did last season in his first year as head coach, it’s always hard when you don’t have a quarterback and time is running out for Daniel Jones to prove himself the man. I’m always hoping for success for players, just not wins over the Bengals, but in this case I think that Washington are likely to eek out a win. However, this line is too rich for me given the circumstances and whilst I could be wrong, I’m not confident enough to lay this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Survivor Competition

The Lions had a go at making me nervous, but the 49ers held on to get me a point to start our survivor competition, whilst Dan’s plan to pick against the Texans’ backfired and if this was a standard pool he’d be eliminated already. That would make for a pretty poor blog competition though, so I take the point and we roll into week two.

This week Dan promised me this isn’t a jinx as he’s gone for the Bengals in Chicago taking on the Bears, whilst I’m echoing his pick from week one but hoping the Browns go better as they look to recover from a tough opening game in Kansas City that they really could have won if Patrick Mahomes wasn’t so good.

Current Score

Gee: 1
Dan: 0

Week 2 Selection:

Gee:     Browns v Texans
Dan:    Bengals @ Bears

Bold Prediction of the Week

I’m never that confident in these, but Dan likes to put me under pressure and this week I plumped for:

The Falcons will cover against the Buccaneers this week.

So let’s see if they can finish the game within twelve I win, and feel if not proud than not totally ridiculous.

Roll on week two!

2021 Week One Picks

12 Sunday Sep 2021

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

Well, the opening game of the season between the Cowboys and Buccaneers was an absolute cracker that went down to a last-minute field goal so let’s see how the rest of the week one games live up to it. Making picks in the early couple of weeks is always more of an art than science, even more so with the truncated pre-season and the trend amongst an increasing number of teams to barely play their starters so let’s see what we can do

Early Games:

The standout contest in the early games is the Pittsburgh Steelers taking on the Bills. I am really interested to see how the Steelers offence looks with new coordinator Matt Canada and the addition rookie running back Najee Harris, while the Bills are a team look set to mount a credible push for the Super Bowl. Time will tell if quarterback Josh Allen can maintain the jump in play he achieved last season, but even with some regression this team look set to compete once more. I think this line could be a little high given how well the Steelers’ defence played last season and so whilst I like the Bills to win the game, I’m going to grab the points.

This could be a big third season for Kliff Kingsbury with the Arizona Cardinals and the signing of multiple recognisable free agents in their thirties certainly demonstrates and urgency to push into the playoffs, although a winning season would be a good start. The Titans meanwhile have only had winning seasons under Mike Vrabel and have gone to the playoffs in the last two season. The big questions for them are: can the offence be as good without coordinator Arthur Smith, can Derek Henry sustain his remarkable production given the number of carries over the last two seasons, and can they patch together a defence to truly compete in the playoffs? Obviously, this game won’t answer any of the big questions for either of these teams, but its an intriguing early glimpse of what’s to come.

The other game I wanted to discuss in a little more detail is the Washington Football Team hosting the LA Chargers. I am curious to see what effect new head coach Brandon Staley has on the Chargers, both int terms of their defence, but also how they are developing quarterback Justin Herbert in his second year having torn up the league in his rookie season. Going against the third best defence by DVOA last year should be good a test and while defence ranking seems to be less sticky that offence, I find it hard to think a team coached by Ron Rivera would fall off that much on defence. I am also intrigued to see how the offence looks with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm as the glimpses I saw in pre-season were promising.

Points from the rest:

  • There’s a lot of unknowns in Philadelphia while the Falcons also have a new head coach in Arther Smith. I am definitely looking forward to finally getting a proper look at rookie tight end Kyle Pitts and what Smith has in store for him.
  • I am hoping that the turmoil in Minnesota gives the Bengals a chance in this game, but the Vikings are a team looking to push on again after a difficult 2020 season. However, the Vikings have an established base under Zimmer and I’m looking for Bengals to build something concrete on either side of the ball under Zac Taylor. First target, let’s get Joe Burrow through the season healthy.
  • How can you not be curious about the Detroit Lions given the human quote machine that is Dan Campbell, but the 49ers are not an easy team to face, whoever is playing quarterback for them right now.
  • It looks like Carson Wentz is starting and I’m interested to see if he can recover enough form for the Colts to continue to compete given the commitment in salary that the Colts have made recently. The Seahawks are always competitive under Pete Carroll and I am looking forward to seeing what new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has planned for Russell Wilson so this should be a great watch and in a less idiosyncratic list would have got more of a write up. I’m certainly looking forward to seeing what happens.
  • The Jets at Panthers is the Sam Darnold bowl, but both teams will be hoping they’ve made the right move at quarterback. It’s interesting that the Panthers went for Darnold when they could have drafted one of the five first round QBs selected in this year’s draft who have all looked promising in pre-season. It will be hard to get too much of a read against a rebuilding Jets team who lost their big free agent pass rusher Carl Lawson before the first snap of the season and who really just need to find some things to build around this season.
  • The Jaguars are taking on the Texans in the first test of Urban Myer’s plans in the NFL with proper game planning. It’s a sign of how bad things are in Houston that an unproven in the NFL head coach with a rookie quarterback is laying points on the road, but it feels like it’s going to be a long season for Houston fans.

Eagles @ Falcons (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Steelers @ Bills (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Vikings @ Bengals (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

49ers @ Lions (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Cardinals @ Titans (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Seahawks @ Colts (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Chargers @ Washington (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Jets @ Panthers (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Jaguars @ Texans (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Late Games:

The late game that leaps off the page is the Cleveland Browns taking on last year’s defeated Super Bowl team the Kansas City Chiefs. There could be a hangover for the Chiefs in that they have been to two consecutive Super Bowls, but with the combination of head coach Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes it’s hard to see the Chiefs suffering a big fall off this season like so many defeated Super Bowl teams. The Chiefs remade their offensive line in the offseason and once more look like a team gearing up for a Super Bowl run. However, this is no easy game for them as the Browns have one of the stronger rosters in the league these days and Kevin Stefanski worked wonders in his rookie season as head coach in the middle of a pandemic. If he can continue to improve Baker Mayfield’s play, then there’s no reason for them to fear anyone, including the Chiefs. I wouldn’t like to predict who is going to win this game, but this line is too high for me as the Browns should be pushing for the playoffs again.

Points on the Rest:

  • I’m looking forward to seeing what Tua Tagovoila can do now he is running an offence built around his skill set and expect the Dolphins to compete again as that’s all they’ve done under Brian Flores. However, the Patriots have their own young QB in rookie Mac Jones and a defence that is potentially scary good this season with the number of players returning from last season’s opt outs. You don’t win or push the rules as much as Bill Belichick does without being competitive, so I don’t think he needs the extra motivation of proving himself after Brady won the Super Bowl last year as some are suggesting, but I’m sure the Pats are expecting to be competitive this year after a rough 2020.
  • I am curious to see what Sean Payton can do with Jameis Winston as his quarterback, but the Saints salary cap woes means I’m not sure how competitive they can be with this retooled roster missing Michael Thomas, particularly now they are displaced thanks to the hurricane that hit New Orleans. The Packers were making headlines all offseason given the situation with Aaron Rodgers, but having reported at the start of training camp there is no reason not to expect the offence to be good again. The question is, can the change in defensive coordinator push the Packers from thirteen win seasons into the Super Bowl?
  • The Broncos taking on the Giants is an intriguing game given the unknowns for both teams. The Broncos are going with Teddy Bridgewater as their quarterback, but the defence was good last season despite ace pass rusher Von Miller being lost in pre-season. If Bridgewater can be effective with the young skill players of the Broncos they can at least be competitive. I liked a lot of what Joe Judge built in New York in his first season, but too much rests on the question of whether Daniel Jones is a franchise QB or not. The Giants made moves to give him no excuses so it’s a big season for Jones, and I’m not sure on this one at all.

Browns @ Chiefs (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Dolphins @ Patriots (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Packers @ Saints (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Broncos @ Giants (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Sunday Night Football:

Bears @ Rams (-6.5)

The Sunday night game is one that’s fascinating in large part because we get to see Matthew Stafford running Sean McVay’s offence. Their defence will also be an intriguing thing to monitor through the season as the loss of coordinator Staley along side several players around the stars of Jalen Ramsay and Aaron Donald means there’s a lot of questions and an injury to either defensive star could cause real problems. However, the Bears are a curious team in of themselves, with a defence that has fallen off a little under Matt Nagy. They answered one question at quarterback by moving on from Mitchell Trubisky, but how long Andy Dalton can hold off Justin Fields is the new questions alongside whether this team can this team truly compete. The line would seem to indicate not, but the questions surrounding the Bears are going to take weeks to resolve, and they’ve never had a losing season under Nagy so let’s see if he can improve on the last two seasons of 8-8.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rans

Monday Night Football

Ravens @ Raiders (+4.5)

This is a game that is intriguing rather than one that sets the pulse racing. I think we know to a large degree what we will get out of the Ravens, and the question is still whether Lamar Jackson can become a good enough passer on defined throwing downs to push his team on. Still, Jackson is an electric talent and the Ravens have clearly been attempting to improve his receiving options in the offseason. They travel to face a Raiders team who rebuilt their offensive line in the offseason and invested once again in their defence, but the combination of Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock still doesn’t feel like it is working to a clear enough plan. I don’t doubt Gruden’s footballing brain, but I’m not sure of him as a head coach, although for me a lot rests on whether Gus Bradley can transform a defence that has consistently been in the bottom quarter of the league by DVOA. It will be good to see the Las Vegas stadium full and I wonder how the dynamics of visiting fans vs Raider fans work out, but the Raiders will likely find this a tough way to start the season

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2021 Week 1

09 Thursday Sep 2021

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , ,

I’m not sure when I’m going to feel like I have a proper routine back in my life, yet alone the blog, but after life events overtook writing at the end of last season we have been right through pre-season and whilst podcasting started, writing hasn’t. Until now, so whilst I’m sorting spreadsheets out and trying to get organised suddenly there’s picks to be made and a game tonight.

I mentioned it on the pod, and it is sort of my plan this season to take a leaf out of the Patriots/Rams’ approach and ramp up in September as we prepare for the long haul to the Super Bowl, which now includes an extra week in the regular season. There are other commitments kicking in next month too so I will have to sort out once again where I can find watching and writing time, but I want to keep this fun for me to write and hopefully for you to read. It’s also been far too long since I won a picks competition, so let’s see if I can get the year off to a good start, knowing that as ever, we are in for a marathon and not a sprint.

Cowboys @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

The first game of the season is a humdinger of a contest that as usual sees the Super Bowl champions opening up at home, and once more Tom Brady gets to open the season, this time welcoming the Cowboys to Tampa as Dak Prescott sees his first action since last season’s horrific ankle injury. I’m looking forward to the game, but it’s a strange one to pick because the Cowboys did not sparkle last season after Dak went down and the defence never looked right. All the skill position players are there on offence but will the offensive line be good enough for them to hum and can an awful defence be good enough for the team to be truly competitive. It’s not an easy task to go against a stacked Bucs team that brought all of its starters back and now have Brady well established in the offence after a slow start when he joined the Bucs last season. Interestingly, this is a good number looking at what is available online, but I’m feeling conservative, particularly given how little we’ve seen in the pre-season and I’m not ready to be handing out a touchdown’s worth of points given hope good a quartrback Dak is. The numbers are saying I’m wrong, but I was bitten too often last season and so I’m backing the Cowboys to at least keep it competitive. I just hope this isn’t Hard Knocks having too much of an influence on me.

Gee’s Pick:     Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:     Cowboys

Survivor Competition

Dan beat me in both competitions last season, and with his pick of the Jaguars I can see the starts of a similar tactic to what he had going last season in going against the Texans. I can see his logic, but there’s too many new parts in Jacksonville for my liking and so I’m looking at the 49ers and their experience against a Lions team who are starting a big rebuilding project as what I’m hoping is a solid survivor pick to start the season.

Week 1 Selection:

Gee:    49ers
Dan:    Jaguars

2020 Week Seventeen Picks

03 Sunday Jan 2021

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, ,

I need a remarkable seven-point turnaround in week seventeen to stop Dan from winning the picks competition and I really can’t see myself pulling that one off. Still, let us see if I can pick my way through the odd permutations of play-off motivation, resting teams and my stuttering form to at least make it interesting. Right now I’d settle for seven different picks to Dan, which as I always make my picks before I look at his is not guaranteed but I will try to take some big swings if I see them.

Gee:Week 16:  7 – 9Overall:  116 – 125
Dan:Week 16:  6 – 10Overall:  122 – 119

Survivor Competition

Dan wrapped up the inaugural TWF Survivor competition with another point picking against the Vikings and oh boy did the Saints win that game. Meanwhile I failed to see that the Bengals were going to make it a streak with their first road win under Zac Taylor that both confirmed Dan’s win in this competition and likely saw the Dolphins vault the Bengals in the 2021 draft with the Dolphins in possession of the Texans’ pick. This week Dan discovered that he hadn’t picked the Seahawks and so is backing them against the 49ers, whilst the best game I could find was the Cowboys visitng the Giants. Congratulations to Dan on his win and I just hope that I can keep his lead down to three.

Current Score

Gee: 10
Dan: 13

Week 17 Selection:

Gee:    Cowboys
Dan:    Seahawks

Early Games:

Week seventeen is often a difficult one to pick through and while there are several games to watch in the early slate with play-off implications, they all seem to have flaws as contests so let’s look at the four games with play-off stakes.

The Miami Dolphins travel to Buffalo to face a Bills team who might want to wrap up the number two seed if they can, but we don’t know how invested they are in achieving that but the fact they are facing divisional rivals might factor into their performance in this game. Things get even more complicated when you factor in that Ryan Fitzpatrick has tested positive for Covid-19 and so the Dolphin’s backup quarterback cannot enter the game if Tua Tagovailoa struggles again. I am leaning towards the Dolphins keeping the game within five points as they did in week two, but I don’t know if they can win and even with Dan telling me there are only two out of a possible thirty-two combinations of results that see the Dolphins miss the play-offs, I am sure he is in for a nervous evening of score watching.

The Cincinnati Bengals host the Baltimore Ravens who need to beat the Bengals or have the Browns or Colts lose to get a play-off berth. I am sure the Ravens will want to keep matters in their own hands and given how they have been playing in recent weeks it is hard to see the Bengals getting the upset win. That said, whilst the consensus line is even bigger, the Bengals have won two straight and I just wonder with the chance to act as spoiler whether the Bengals will keep this game closer than twelve and with the need to take some swings if there is any chance of me winning the picks competition I’m going to back the Bengals to cover.

The Pittsburgh Steelers go to Cleveland with Ben Roethlisberger getting the week off as the Steelers have not had a proper bye this season, and with the Browns most likely chance of making the play-offs being a win and facing a backup quarterback the line has got pretty big. As much as I like what Kevin Stefanski has done with the Browns in his first year as head coach, the Browns lost to the Jets last week having not had most of their receivers available thanks to close contacts with a positive Covid-19 test and there have been more positive tests this week with the facility closed as recently as Saturday. I think the Browns should get the win, but I am not totally sure they will do so by a touchdown even if they are facing a Steelers offence that has really struggled even before starting a backup quarterback and with stories of last week’s turnaround being Roethlisberger changing more calls. I expect the Browns to win but in the quest for enough differences to Dan to win I’m going to swing for the fences and back the Steelers to cover.

The last game with direct play-off implications is the Dallas Cowboys travelling to New York to take on the Giants. The mess of the NFC East will be finally resolved this week, even if it will have a losing team hosting a Wildcard play-off game. The Cowboys come into this contest on a three-game winning streak while the Giants have struggled with Daniel Jones playing despite injuries affecting his mobility as Jones is simply not an effective pocket quarterback. The Giants have slim hopes of making the play-offs, but I think that with their late run of form the Cowboys should win this game and will then turn their eyes nervously to the last game of the day.

Points from the rest:

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might have started to come together in recent weeks, winning three in a row and this week likely look to maintain momentum as a team built through the season thanks to the lack of pre-season so I see them rolling through the Atlanta Falcons who have nothing to play for
  • The Minnesota Vikings may have lost Dalvin Cook as he has left the team early due to the death of his father, but they should still have more than enough to beat a bad Lions team. The lines suggest the Lions are the team to pick with this sized line, but they were truly woeful last week and with me needing big swings I’m going to back the Vikings and hope the passing game can hold up in Cook’s absence.
  • The New England Patriots have had a tough year and will be looking to rebuild in the off-season just like the New York Jets. As much as there is no love loss between these two franchises, the Jets come into this game with a better run of form and whilst the Pats could well win this game, the extra half-point required for them to cover is having me back the 2020 Jets one last time.

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Dolphins @ Bills (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Ravens @ Bengals (+11.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Steelers @ Browns (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Cowboys @ Giants (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Vikings @ Lions (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Jets @ Patriots (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Late Games:

The Green Bay Packers head to Chicago needing a win to clinch the number one seeding whilst the Bears need to at least match the Arizona Cardinals’ result to get into the play-offs. It is a big task for the Bears to beat a team who have four more wins and are 24% better by total overall DVOA, but since their meeting in week twelve the Bears have scored thirty points each week and won their last three. I think the Packers will run out winners in a game they want to make sure the path to the Super Bowl runs through Green Bay, but the numbers see some value in backing the Bears to cover.

The Tennessee Titans come into this game needing a win to secure their play-off berth and given that they are facing a Houston Texans team whose defense couldn’t stop the Bengals last week I think the Titans should run out winners in this one. However, I am a little nervous about an eight point win given the Titans’ own defensive frailties and how well Deshaun Watson is playing so with the numbers on my side I’m going to follow them and go with the Texans.

The Indianapolis Colts’ play-off situation is both simple and complex. The Colts need a win to stay in the race but are reliant on one of the other four ten-win AFC teams losing to actually make the play-offs and could in fact finish 11-5 and be on the outside looking in. They should beat a struggling Jacksonville Jaguars who are guaranteed the number one pick in the draft, and the Colts have been playing well but this line is huge and as much as I think the Colts will win, I can’t back them to win by fifteen even if it is plausible that they could.

The LA Rams followed up their surprising loss to the Jets with another loss to the Seahawks and so come into week seventeen needing a win a to guarantee their place in the play-offs, although they also will get in if the Bears lose. They might well need that Packers’ win as the Rams come into this game without Jared Goff after he had surgery on Monday to stabilise his fractured thumb and will also miss Cooper Kupp who has tested positive for Covid-19. They face an Arizona Cardinals team who have looked better since Kyler Murray seemed to recover from whatever injury was troubling jim through the middle of the season, but the Cardinals lost to the 49ers last week and Murray picked up a leg injury on the final play of the game. This is a matchup of backup QB versus a possibly injured one but with the Rams’ still having the best unit in the game thanks to their defense and with Sean McVay’s ability to scheme offence I think they should win. The line makes me nervous with backup quarterback John Wolford starting but I need to make big calls this week so here’s another.

Points on the Rest:

  • The New Orleans Saints will want to win and hope that results go their way to get the number one seed, but to get it they need the Bears to beat the Packers and the Seahawks to beat the 49ers. The first part of this scenario got a bit more complicated with Alvin Kamara testing positive for Coivd-19 and the whole running back room being ruled out of their game against the Carolina Panthers. I wouldn’t rule out the Saints beating the Panthers, but I kind of like the home team’s chances of keeping the game within seven.
  • I’m really not sure what to make of either the Las Vegas Raiders or the Denver Broncos and in a dead game I’m not totally sure of the result. However, this a chance for Gruden to have his first non-losing season with the Raiders and as the better team I’d like to think they manage to do just that.
  • The line that sees the Chiefs getting points against the Chargers is a result of Andy Reid likely resting players in a game that doesn’t matter to the Chiefs who have the number one seed secured. The extra half point is enough to make me nervous but bold picks are what is needed this week.
  • The Seattle Seahawks secured the NFC West with their win over the Rams last week and so come into their games with only play-off seeding to play for. The 49ers beat the Cardinals last week and given how they have been playing they could well give the Seahawks trouble this week, but the numbers are pointing towards the Seahawks firmly enough that I’m not going to back the 49ers. I just hope I don’t regret it…

Packers @ Bears (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Raiders @ Broncos (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Titans @ Texans (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Jaguars @ Colts (-14.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Chargers @ Chiefs (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Cardinals @ Rams (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Saints @ Panthers (+6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Seahawks @ 49ers (5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Sunday Night Football:

Washington @ Eagles (+1.5)

The finale of the NFL regular season sees the Washington Football Team taking on the Philadelphia Eagles looking to secure the division and book a place in the play-offs. While Washington’s defensive and their defensive line in particular have continued to impress, their offence has wobbled without Alex Smith until Taylor Heinicke played better than Dwayne Haskins last week. This was enough Haskins to be cut form the Football Team and with Smith returning to the starting line-up and a better backup Washington are now favourites on the road. This would seem to make sense with the Eagles eliminated from the play-offs and their defense losing Fletcher Cox from the middle of their defensive line. For all the talk of the Eagles not wanting to have Washington win the division in their stadium, the Eagles feel like a team who could be dangerous but don’t ultimately have the team right now to stop Washington.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Week Sixteen Picks

27 Sunday Dec 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Somehow my modest two correct picks over the Christmas games has seen me pick up another point on Dan, but let’s see if I can get any more and make Dan sweat a little going into the final week.

Early Games:

There are a few games from the early slate that have play-off repercussions but there is only one that looks like a real contest and that is the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Indianapolis Colts. However, even then the line could be deceiving as the Steelers have lost three straight having won their first eleven games wity the offence seeming to have been solved in recent weeks whilst the injuries at linebacker have started to really hurt the defense. The Bengals’ offence did not actually do a lot against the Steelers defense last week, but the Colts offence ranks seventeen places better by DVOA and their defense ranks nineteen places better so having seen the Steelers lose by ten to a then two win Bengals team I give the edge to the Colts this week.

Points from the rest:

  • I’m a little torn as to what to do with the Kansas City Chiefs game as whilst they have a 13-1 record, you have to go back to week eight against the Jets to find an opponent they have beat by double digits. The Atlanta Falcons have not exactly been good value recently after the minor recovery under Raheem Morris stalled, but they haven’t been beat heavily since playing the Saints in week eleven so I’m going to nervously back them to keep within eleven.
  • The Chicago Bears are in a slightly strange position of having had a mini recovery after re-inserting Mitchell Trubisky into the starting line-up but need to catch the Cardinals to get into the play-offs and likely have too many wins to draft a quarterback in the off-season. They should have enough to beat a bad Jaguars team who are currently in position to pick first in next year’s draft, but I don’t know about doing it by eight points.
  • The Bengals got a third win on Monday, but they are not a good team and whilst neither are the Texans, they should win this game although I don’t know if they can do it by ten points.
  • The New York Jets managed to avoid going winless but might have cost themselves the number one pick in next year’s draft in the process. This week they welcome a Cleveland Browns team who are making a late push to win the AFC North as the Steelers continue to slide and if things break right, the Browns could find themselves in a winner takes all divisional game in week seventeen. I don’t know if the Steelers will continue to lose, but I do expect the Browns to have eleven wins going into that final game in Pittsburgh.
  • I may have been a bit bullish on the Giants, who definitely need a lot of work on offence, but I do wonder if their defense can limit Lamar Jackson and a Ravens offence that has looked good in the last three weeks. I don’t expect the Giants to win, but keeping the deficit within twelve seems possible. That said, the Ravens have posted scores of 34, 47 and 40 in the last three weeks.

Falcons @ Chiefs (-10.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Bears @ Jaguars (+7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Bengals @ Texans (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Browns @ Jets (+9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Colts @ Steelers (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Giants @ Ravens (-11.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Late Games:

The late slate of games looks to be a lot more competitive, but the best quality matchup must be the LA Rams trying to put their loss to the Jets behind them as they travel to take on the Seattle Seahawks. This season the Rams look as well balanced as they ever have under Sean McVay, but the questions that surround Jared Goff and his ability to cope with pressure remain, making it impossible to entirely trust the Rams even if McVay has coached them to four straight winning seasons and should return to the play-offs for a third time in January. However, while the Seahawks have a game lead in the division, the Rams have a 5-2 record against them since McVay took over the Rams and as good as Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offence has been with DK Metcalf establishing himself as one of the most promising young receivers in the league, their defense still only ranks twentieth by DVOA. Given that the Seahawks have been perhaps as affected as any team in the league by the absence of their fans in a stadium designed to enhance crowd noise, I like the Rams getting the points in this one. It should be a cracking game.

Points on the Rest:

  • The LA Chargers have had some extra rest after beating the Raiders on Thursday night in week fifteen, but the only teams they have beaten by more than a field goal this season are the Jets and Jaguars. My concern in picking this game is the Broncos offence being thirty-second in the league by DVOA, but with injuries to young quaterback Drew Lock amongst others disrupting their season, I think this might be near the worst of possible outcomes for the Broncos and so I like them to cover this one.
  • The problem that Washington have right now is that with Alex Smith fighting a calf injury they have had to turn to Dwayne Haskins at quarterback and might well have to turn to him again this week despite him being fined and stripped of his captaincy for violating Covid-19 protocols when he was photographed in a club without a mask. The Panthers might not be a good team yet, and Washington’s defensive line is definitely impressive, but I can’t lay these kind of points with this level of uncertainty at quarterback.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have won two straight including scoring forty-one points against the 49ers but come into this game as underdogs thanks to a reversal in fortune for the Philadelphia Eagles after inserting rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts into their starting lineup. That said, the Eagles lost to the Cardinals last week and it is hard to know what will happen when two NFC East teams face each other. Still, the Eagles are laying a point and a half less here than I’m seeing as the consensus on line so I guess I have to take the Eagles in this one.

Broncos @ Chargers (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Panthers @ Washington (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Eagles @ Cowboys (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Rams @ Seahawks (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Sunday Night Football:

Titans @ Packers (-3.5)

This is the game of the week for me as it sees two teams with double digit wins face off in a matchup that has the potential to get lopsided for both teams but could be a great contest. The weakness for the Tennessee Titans is their pass rush and facing Aaron Rodgers and the second ranked offence by DVOA this has could go horribly wrong. That said, the Packers rush defense is ranked twenty-first in rush defense by DVOA, which is surprisingly high and I could absolutely see Derek Henry dominating this game for the Titans. There may be eleven percentage points between these two teams by overall DVOA, but I think this could be a great game and the Packers defensive frailties make me just nervous enough about laying three and a half points to back the Titans. It will be ominous for the NFC if the Packers win convincingly in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Monday Night Football

Bills @ Patriots (+6.5)

Week sixteen finishes with the newly crowned AFC East Buffalo Bills getting a chance to sweep the New England Patriots and improve their chances of securing the second seed in the AFC. The New England Patriots have struggled thanks to the problems on offence and the number of Covid-19 opt outs across the team. There are going to be plenty of questions about the offence during the off-season and the Patriots will need an answer at quarterback, but there’s still part of me that worries about what Bill Belichick could scheme up to cover this line. However, the Bills have looked really good in recent weeks and if they are to deliver on the promise of the season in the play-offs then this is the kind of game they should win.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2020 Christmas Picks

24 Thursday Dec 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , ,

I’m not sure how read this post will be, and in fairness I finished work and hit something of a wall so let’s got through our four Christmas NFL games and I’ll regroup again on Sunday.

Gee:Week 15:  10 – 6Overall:  109 – 116
Dan:Week 15:  6 – 10Overall:  116 – 109

Christmas Day

Vikings @ Saints (-6.5)

I think should be a really good contest between a New Orleans Saints team who will want to get their offence running more smoothly now quarterback Drew Brees has returned from injury and get back to winning ways to see if they can regain their number one seeding should the Packers slip up in the next two weeks. I can’t see the Vikings making the play-offs but they will not want to go quietly in these final two weeks and so I do seem them being competitive. However, as I’m getting an extra half point from the consensus, I’m seeing online I’m going to take the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:     Saints
Dan’s Pick:     Saints

Boxing Day

Buccaneers @ Lions (+8.5)

The first of the Boxing day games sees the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Detroit Lions in a game that the Bucs should win by a decent amount. I’m slightly hesitant that it will be by nine points, except this line is actually a whole point less than the consensus online and the Lions defence is not good and I don’t trust their offence to keep up with the Bucs either. I may regret this, but if the Bucs are going to make the play-offs and do more than be there then they need things to come together and with very little of the regular season left now seems as good a time as any for them to do so.

Gee’s Pick:     Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:     Lions

49ers @ Cardinals (-4.5)

I could be wrong about this, but the San Francisco 49ers are coming towards the end of a long season that has been plagued by injury and with them staying away in Arizona with their families but with nothing left to play for except pride they may struggle against a Cardinals team who are chasing the play-offs. The Cardinals have benefitted from Kyler Murray looking much more like himself in the last couple of weeks and so I’m going to back them to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:     Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:     Cardinals

Dolphins @ Raiders (+2.5)

A couple of weeks ago this would have been an important game for both teams’ play-off chances and it still is for the Dolphins, but I think the Raiders have lost too many games in recent weeks. I wonder how fit Derek Carr will be despite training in the week, but it is too late for there to be huge changes to the defence that has let the Raiders down all season so whilst I could be wrong, I like the Dolphins to win this game and setup a big finale against the Bills in week seventeen.

Gee’s Pick:     Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:     Dolphins

Survivor Competition

The best I can do now is draw with Dan and he only has to score one more point to seal the season win. The Ravens saw him through against the Jaguars last week and did the Titans for me against the Lions. This week Dan has got the Saints going against the Vikings whilst I’m pumping for the Texans going against the Bengals.

Current Score

Gee: 10
Dan: 12

Week 16 Selection:

Gee:    Texans
Dan:    Saints

2020 Week Fifteen Picks

20 Sunday Dec 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I would love to think that I am getting into Dan’s head having gone three out of three so far in week fifteen and picked up two points on him already, but despite his text this morning I am keenly aware that this still only cut his lead to under double digits and there are plenty of opportunities to fall further back.

Still, it is nice to be perfect so far so let’s take a look at the rest of the week fifteen games.

Early Games:

There are a couple of games that leap out of the early slate and once again one of the teams involved is the Miami Dolphins. They are hosting the New England Patriots, and this is a fixture that the Pats have had difficulties with for a number of years even when they were still running up double digit wins and making the AFC East their own. The East looks to be going to the Bills this season, but the Dolphins are very much in the hunt for a wildcard slot and I think this divisional game should be the next step in them doing just that, but I also think it should be a tense competitive game.

The Seattle Seahawks have an interesting test this week as they travel across the country to face the Washington Football Team who currently stand atop the NFC East and still have a shot at a winning record. I somehow doubt the Football Team are going to win out, particularly with the Seahawks coming to town this week, but watching the Washington defensive line trying to limit Russell Wilson should be fun and I think Washington could well cover even if I think the Seahawks are more likely to win.

Points from the rest:

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers really can’t afford too many more losses even with possession of the sixth wildcard spot as the Cardinals are only a game behind them and with the Vikings and Bears two games back neither are out the hunt yet, although you would fancy the Bucs to hold on. Still, while the Falcons should not prove too difficult an opponent this week, the Bucs have not impressed for a while and hanging on for a wildcard spot was not exactly the aim coming into the season
  • The Chicago Bears finally broke their six-game losing streak against the Texans and looked pretty good doing it. The Minnesota Vikings have improved after a bad start to the season and I do like the Vikings to win at home, but I have a feeling this divisional game will be closer than the line suggests with he Bears actually ranking better by overall DVOA.
  • It’s hard to take too much from the Dallas Cowboys’ win last week as the Bengals are a terrible football team, whilst the 49ers have remained competitive despite numerous injury problems and playing in an NFC West division that has been fearsomely competitive in 2020. I lean towards the 49ers winning this one and the points are not enough for me to pick against them.
  • The Detroit Lions followed up their win over the Bears with a loss to the Packers last week, although it was a reasonable showing. Still, the Tennessee Titans looked very solid against the Jaguars last week and with the league’s thirty-first defense by DVOA and the twenty-sixth ranked rush defense facingthe Titans I don’t expect that the Lions will manage a different result than the Jags.
  • The Indianapolis Colts are a very solid football team, top ten in both defense and special teams by DVOA and have enough good quarterback play through the combination of Philip Rivers’ experience and Jacoby Brissett providing short yardage sneaks and run-options close to the goal line that they should win this game. The Houston Texans are a divisional opponent so the line does worry me, but the Colts are a better team than the Bears so I think the Colts should cover
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars got a bit of a boost from starting Mike Glennon for two games but didn’t get a win and they were beat convincingly by the Titans last week. Meanwhile, the Ravens looked very good last week with Lamar Jackson running the ball effectively and it’s hard to see anything other than a Ravens win, although whether they cover the points is another question.

Buccaneers @ Falcons (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Bears @ Vikings (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

49ers @ Cowboys (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Lions @ Titans (-9.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Texans @ Colts (-7.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Patriots @ Dolphins (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Seahawks @ Washington (+5.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Jaguars @ Ravens (-13.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Late Games:

The pick of the late games is clearly the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the New Orleans Saints as this is probably the game of the week. The Saints will welcome the return of Drew Brees after the Taysom Hill experiment ran aground against the Eagles last week. This should be a fascinating contest, but how good Brees can be given his layoff for eleven broken ribs is a reasonable question and there does seem to be something inevitable about opposing quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offence. That said, the Saints defense is second only to the Steelers by DVOA and there are enough questions surrounding the Chiefs defense and performance in recent weeks that they are beatable. It’s just no-one but the Raiders have managed it so far this season.

Points on the Rest:

  • The LA Rams looks to be a better-balanced team this season than the year they went to the Super Bowl and should have no problem beating the New York Jets at home.
  • The Arizona Cardinals got back to winning ways last week, and Kyler Murray looked much more like himself. That said, the Eagles found something in Jalen Hurts and having beaten the Saints last week will be hoping to build on that win. I wonder if the Saints were complacent last week, but this line still seems a bit high to me but we shall see.

Jets @ Rams (-16.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Eagles @ Cardinals (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Chiefs @ Saints (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Sunday Night Football:

Browns @ Giants (+3.5)

The New York Giants lost their first game in five weeks against the Cardinals and the games don’t get any easier this week with the Cleveland Browns coming to town. There is three points between the consensus line and this one so I pretty much have to pick the Browns by default, and I would expect them to win given recent performances. The Giants still have a good defense but they will need their offence to do better if they want to apply pressure to Washington at the top of the NFC East over the final three games.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Monday Night Football

Steelers @ Bengals (+12.5)

The Steelers have a particularly good record against the Bengals anyway, but I can’t see any hope for a bad Bengals team who will be starting third string quarterback Ryan Finley who has an 0-3 record as a starter. There are genuine issues with a Steelers’ offence that cannot run the ball or stretch the field and a defence that has a cluster of injuries at linebacker but the Bengals are simply not equipped to exploit this.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Saturday: 2020 Week Fifteen Picks

19 Saturday Dec 2020

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , ,

Week fifteen started with a win for me, although I was lucky in that I picked against Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr and he picked up a groin strain early but he was on the bench for my dynasty team so the injury helped my pick without damaging my play-off matchup. With the first Saturday games of the season coming into view there’s just time to take a quick look at tonight’s games.

Bills @ Broncos (+6.5)

The Buffalo Bills follow up their statement win against the Steelers with a trip to face the Denver Broncos who are coming off their own win. The Broncos best win of the year was against the Miami Dolphins, but the Bills offense is a very different thing to face than the Panthers who they just beat and I fully expect the Bills to win out in this one. That said, this line is big enough that it really makes me wonder if I want to back the Bills, but they have had a number of solid wins and I can’t quite bring myself to back the Broncos. I do wonder if I will regret going against my numbers though…

Gee’s Pick:     Bills
Dan’s Pick:     Bills

Panthers @ Packers (-8.5)

I misremembered the results of the Panthers on the podcast this week as they actually only got back to 3-4 after losing their first four games, and won their last game as recently as week eleven against the Lions. This puts me in a second Saturday quandary as they have been competitive for a number of weeks and so whilst I would be shocked if they could travel to Green Bay so close to having eight players on the Covid-19 list and win, I wouldn’t be if they covered this line. The Packers are currently ranked number one in the NFC for a reason, and that reason is their league leading by DVOA offence, but whilst there are still questions about their defence against elite competition, I don’t think that is going to cause them issues in this game. That said, when I look at the consensus number the line is just that bit too rich for me, even with the Panthers only having four wins.

Gee’s Pick:     Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Packers