Sunday Wildcards

06 Sunday Jan 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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Bal, Carson Wentz, Chicago Bears, Fletcher Cox, Jay Ajayi, Joe Flacco, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, LA Chargers, Lamar Jackson, Matt Nagy, Mitchell Trubisky, NFL, Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles, Philip Rivers, Vic Fangio

And now it is time to at the Sunday Wildcard games but before that there’s this week’s trivia question to deal with.

‘Firstly and with 2 points on offer I want to know

The 2017/18’s Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year played for which teams?

Secondly and again for 2 points:

What was significant about the 2015/16 Wildcard Weekend?’

Now, the first question I think is slightly sneaky as I believe both players were on the New Orleans Saints, namely Alvin Kamara and Marshon Lattimore.

The second is trickier and I’m torn between two things, either this was the last time that a team with a losing record made the playoffs, or and this is the one I’m going for, this was the last time that a road team won wildcard game. I’m sure both of these are wrong but I can’t think anything else so I have a nasty feeling I’m going to kick myself when the answer is revealed.

‘This week’s trivia is keeping me occupied and my mind off the state of the names linked with the Dolphins HC position!

First question was about last year’s Rookies of the Year, and I believe they were both from the New Orleans Saints – I know offensively it was Alvin Kamara and while I can’t think who the defensive rookie was, I’m fairly sure they were also a Saint.

The second question is a bit tougher. I’ve looked at the results and I’m still struggling. I don’t think it’s the first time any of the teams made it to the playoffs, and I don’t think there’s anything significant about the dates or anything like that. The only think I notice is that all of the road teams won which I would have thought is pretty rare… was it the first time that had happened? I’ll go with that.’

LA Charger (5^th) @ Baltimore Ravens (4^th)

The Ravens are yet another example of your season being defined by how you finish a season rather than how you start it, although they were at least competitive all year. However, after a 3-1 start the Ravens fell to 4-5 before the bye and had lost against all three of their division opponents. However, with an injury to Joe Flacco’s hip they put Lamar Jackson into the starting line-up and went 6-1 in the second half of the season. It has to be said that the reason they were competitive all year was that their defence was right up there for best in the league all season, and it was their offensive woes that were causing them problems after some initial promise. However, when they placed rookie quarterback Jackson into the line-up, they started running the ball so much that the combination of time of procession and their defence enabled them beat everyone but the Chiefs after their bye, including the Chargers. The commitment to the running game did not mean that they were lining up with 21 personnel and running up the middle, but rather the Ravens made use of the pistol and multiple tight-ends to take advantage of Jackson’s skill running the ball, which also opened up the game for their running backs. How sustainable this is in the long term I don’t know, but it makes them a scary proposition in this game.

The Chargers may be the fifth seed, but they actually have a better record at 12-4 than the Ravens and have been a force all year. Their slightly slow start can be attributed to facing both the Chiefs and Rams in their opening four games but the only team with a losing record they lost to all year was their division rivals the Broncos. Otherwise, despite missing Joey Bosa for half the season on defence they won and kept winning thanks to strong performances on both sides of the ball, in fact they finished third in the league on offence by DVOA and eighth in defence. If there is a worry, it is that they have been banged up at running back through the latter half of the season and they lost to the Ravens two weeks ago. In fact, the Chargers had real problems picking up a linebacker defensive-tackle stunt in that game, which overcame Philip Rivers’ usual ability to counter poor offensive line play by being quick to get rid of the ball.

So how does this game look to shape up? Well, this time the Chargers have to travel across the country to face the Ravens but given their lack of home field advantage in their temporary home in LA this might not be the disadvantage you might think. You also have to believe that the Chargers will figure something out to stop the particular protection issue they had in their last game. The Chargers have the players on offence to function against a good Ravens defence and if the Ravens blitz as much as they did late against the Browns last week in a close game, then I can see Philip Rivers making much smarter plays to get rid of the ball. This is a game where if the Chargers can get up early they can cause the Ravens real problems by getting them out of their time of procession and defence game plan. I think it will be a tough game and I can definitely see the Chargers winning it, but with their ability to play in more than one way and the experience of Rivers at quarterback I give the Chargers a slight edge.

Philadelphia Eagles (6^th) @ Chicago Bears (3^rd)

The Bears are the turnaround story of the season having gone 12-4 after going 5-11 the previous year. Matt Nagy has been able to come in and improve the offence, although I was surprised that their offensive DVOA was only twentieth in the league, although that is still better than the twenty-eight they were last season. Yet when combined with the league’s best defence by DVOA the formula has been more than enough for the Bears to win. It helped that Nagy was secure enough when he came in to keep Vic Fangio on as defensive coordinator, who has continued his development of the defence and the addition of Khalil Mack via trade at the start of the season augmented an already strong defence and was in of itself transformative.

The Eagles on the other hand, have very much had a season of Super Bowl hangover and injury, which meant that they required a late surge and results to go their way even get into the playoffs. In fact they almost have to thank the very team they face this evening as if the Bears had not beaten the Vikings in their last game of the regular season then the Eagles win against Washington would have been meaningless. Both the Eagles’ offensive and defensive DVOAs are very average, and whilst the defence has struggled with injuries, particularly in the secondary, the offence has struggled with an absence of players who can stretch the field and a running game that has lacked consistency since Jay Ajayi was lost for the season to a torn ACL. It should be mentioned that Fletcher Cox has had a remarkable year as part of reduced but still strong defensive line, while on offence tight-end Zac Ertz has been the stand out player on offence. However, as is often the way, the big story of the Eagles’ season is at quarterback. Carson Wentz led the team for most of last season only to go down with a knee injury late in the season, which saw Nick Foles come in and lead the Eagles all the way to a Super Bowl title. However, Foles started the season 1-1 before Wentz came back in and went 5-6 and things started to look bleak for the Super Bowl Champions when it was revealed that Wentz had a stress fracture in his back. Now, last year’s run was remarkable enough for Nick Foles, who not so long ago was at home contemplating retirement, yet now he is an Super Bowl MVP and he went 3-0 at the end of the season to get the Eagles into the playoffs and here they are travelling to face the Bears.

The Bears are surprisingly strong favourites, with the line often being quoted as the Bears giving six and a half points to the Eagles, which looks strong to me. I think this will be an fascinating matchup and given the injuries I would give the edge to the Bears but if I was picking against the line I’d lean Eagles given their recent form and the fact the Bears have been limiting what they ask Mitchell Trubisky to do, and anytime you have to specifically game plan to limit your quarterback’s mistakes then you are at a slight disadvantage and I would not put it pas the Eagles to be able to take advantage.

AAF: Saquon Barkley

06 Sunday Jan 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Dallas Cowboys, Eli Manning, Jamon Brown, Jeff Heath, New York Giants, NFL, Saquon Barkley, Sean Lee, Wayne Gallman

As this was the last week I could look at players from twenty teams I decided to treat myself to a player I wouldn’t get a chance to look at going forward and so I had a look at Saquon Barkley who would be the outright favourite for offensive rookie of the year if it were not for the value advantage that quarterbacks enjoy in such awards.

The interesting thing for me about this particular game was that the New York Giants were taking on the Dallas Cowboys in week seventeen, and so I got to see Barkley go up against the fifth best rush defence in the league by DVOA and to be fair that is pretty much how they looked in this game.

A cursory look at the stats would have you believe that Barkley was effective all game as he ran for one hundred and nine yards at over six yards per carry, but if you remove his one sixty-eight yard run that we shall discuss in a moment then his rest of his runs went for forty-one yards at an anaemic two-and-half yards a carry. No one has every questioned Barkley’s talent or athleticism, but there has been talk of him being boom or bust and looking to break the big run rather than taking what’s there. It’s hard to say if he has got over this from the evidence of this game because the reason his numbers looked so average for most of the game is that all to often when he had the ball in his hands, the Cowboys front seven or eight (they were often playing in single high safety looks) would be in their run fits and there was often nowhere for the running back to go. Still, Barkley worked hard to get what he can, and not all runs were stuffed for short gains, he made some decent runs using his agility and ability to cut and get what he can, but often he and his blockers would be met in the hole. The Giants had more success attacking the edges of the defence than running between the tackles but the difference was marginal.

The Giants rotated Barkley in and out with Wayne Gallman but there was no pass run split and Barkley was able to work on third down and ran plenty of routes, including down the field when he was flexed out as a receiver, which was not uncommon. On one play he also ran a route and willingly blocked to help make a big pickup. Still if he was no that effective in the passing game and gained most of his rushing yards on one play, what is the buzz about him? Well partly the answer is that anytime he has the ball in space he is dangerous and he can catch the ball and has done in other games, but in this game you would point to the play that went for nearly seventy yards.

On second and twenty, starting on their own seventeen-yard line the Giants lined up with 11 personnel in a shotgun formation facing the Cowboys in a nickel formation with two high safeties. On a draw play Barkley took the handoff and followed right guard Jamon Brown who blocked Sean Lee allowing Barkley to find a small crease and get behind the secondary to pick up sixty-eight yards. Eventually Jeff Heath was able to catch him and battle Barkley down, but the damage was done as flew past the defence and then was hard to bring down. That in essence is his game.

It is this threat of breaking a play that makes Saqoun Barkely so dangerous. He has been hindered this season by a Giants offensive line that couldn’t consistently open holes for him, or they certainly could in this game, and the fact that Eli Manning can’t throw the ball downfield consistently anymore. Manning did make some deep throws but he can’t do it often enough for this team to move the ball effectively and maintain drives. The Giants have some great skill position players but to unlock Barkley’s full potential they need to improve the offensive line and their quarterback play. The scary thing is that Barkley was still able to account for two thousand yards of offence this season even with these limitations so whilst I’m still not sure I would have made the same draft decision at number two, I can see why the Giants did.

Wildcard Saturday

05 Saturday Jan 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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Amari Cooper, Andrew Luck, Bill O'Brien, Chris Carson, Dallas Cowboys, Darius Leonard, DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Doug Baldwin, Eric Ebron, Ezekiel Elliott, Frank Reich, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jason Garrett, Jaylon Smith, JJ Watt, Josh McDaniels, Legion of Boom, Leighton Vander Esch, Marlon Mack, NFL, Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, Ty Hilton, Tyler Lockett

So here we are at the start of the playoffs with a Wildcard Saturday that features two games.

Indianapolis Colts (6^th) @ Houston Texans (3^rd)

The first game of the playoffs is an AFC South divisional rivalry game that sees the Texans host the Colts.

The Texans took a slightly strange route to the playoffs as they lost their opening three games and there was talk that Bill O’Brien’s job was in danger, but then they went on a nine game winning streak before alternating wins and losses. The strength of this team is their top ten defence, even if their special teams unit does rank higher by DVOA, but this defence features a strong front seven including a healthy JJ Watt and a slightly suspect pass secondary. Meanwhile on offence they have relied on running the ball and Deshaun Watson’s legs to compliment DeAndre Hopkins amazing ability as receiver. Hopkins should be considered amongst the best receivers in the game but does not have a lot of help around him and the Texans’ offensive line is definitely a problem. We’ll take a look at how this might play out shortly, but firstly let’s talk about how the Colts got to this game.

The Colts also had a tricky start to the season that included an overtime loss to the Texans that sparked the Texans’ nine game winning streak. However, slowly all three phases of the team came together in Frank Reich’s first season in charge and that in of itself is something worth talking about. The Colts were ready to officially announce Patriots’ offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as their new head coach once the Super Bowl was over, only for McDaniels to pull out at the last minute and leave the Colts scrambling to find a new coach and what a coach they found. Frank Reich left the Super Bowl winning Eagles and was able to use the staff that had already been assembled for McDaniels to turn the Colts from a team who went 4-12 last season to a 10-6 team that returned Andrew Luck to health and form. The defence was the first thing to come together, ably led in tackles by rookie linebacker Darius Leonard, they dragged themselves into the tenth best unit in the game by DVOA. Meanwhile, for pretty much the first time in his career Andrew Luck has an offensive line that gives him more than a couple of seconds to get rid of the ball and Marlon Mack has given them enough balance as a runner to make this offence effective. We all knew that TY Hilton was a great receiver but free-agent acquisition tight-end Eric Ebron has also benefitted from his new surroundings, contributing thirteen touchdowns to go with his seven hundred and fifty yards.

This should be an interesting matchup between two teams who obviously know each other well. Earlier in the season Deshaun Watson was over exposing himself running the ball and had to deal with bruised lung and ribs that were serious enough that he was bussed to one road game rather than flown. The defence of the Colts should be able to match up to the Texans’ offence, particularly as they will be able to double Hopkins without too much worry as long as they can contain Watson. Meanwhile if the Colts offensive line can protect Luck as they have recently then the Colts should be able to move the ball effectively on the Texans. The Texans lost their last home gain against the Colts, and whilst I can see it being another close game I actually kind of fancy the road underdog to spring the upset.

Seattle Seahawks (5th) @ Dallas Cowboys (4^th)

The Dallas Cowboys are another team who started relatively slowly, going 3-5 before turning things around and only losing one more game this season. The catalyst for this transformation appears to be the trade for Amari Cooper, and whilst his success does not negate the argument that the Cowboys traded away too much to get him, the move certainly helped this team. As did the defence’s transformation from one that was overly reliant on linebacker Sean Lee to one that thrived on the play of rookie linebacker Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith finally beginning to show some of the college form that excited so many before his horrible knee injury in his final bowl game. The Cowboys are actually only ranked twenty-first in the league by DVOA, although their defence is top ten but their winning formula has been utilising the NFL leading rusher Ezekiel Elliott more effectively whilst Amari Cooper has opened up the passing game enough to make the Cowboys a functional offence if an uninspiring twenty-fourth by DVOA.

This Saturday they host a Seattle Seahawks team that many had written off in pre-season as they overhauled their roster, moving away the last vestiges of the Legion of Boom defence and collecting young talent. However, Pete Carroll has returned to the formula that saw him have so much success and so whilst the defence only ranks fourteenth in the league by DVOA, the offence ranks in the top ten thanks to their run first approach and Russell Wilson efficient play in the passing game. The now thirty-year old quarterback threw thirty-five touchdown and only seven interceptions, relying on his chemistry with Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin when available. However, Chris Carson has run for eleven hundred yards in fourteen games and it is the run first approach that has allowed the Seahawks to remain competitive and overcome an 0-2 start to make the playoffs.

This should be a bruising old school game that is going to feature two tough defences and a lot of running the ball. The Seahawks actually rank nine places better than the Cowboys by overall DVOA and given Pete Carroll’s playoff experience, not to mention a Super Bowl win, it is hard not to give them the edge over Jason Garrett’s Cowboys. It might be one for the football purist but I’m certainly looking forward to it.

The Disappointed Twenty: NFC Edition

03 Thursday Jan 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Aaron Rodgers, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Bill Belichick, Bruce Arians, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Christian McCaffrey, Dave Gettleman, Detroit Lions, Dirk Koetter, Eli Manning, Green Bay Packers, Jameis Winston, Jason Licht, Jerrick McKinnon, Jim Bob Cooter, Jimmy Garoppolo, John Lynch, Kirk Cousins, Kyle Shanahan, Matt Patricia, Matt Ryan, Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, NFL, Norv Turner, Rueben Foster, San Francisco 49ers, Saquon Barkley, Steve Keim, Steve Wilks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington

Following on from yesterday’s post it is time to say farewell to the NFC half of the disappointed twenty.

Washington

I almost don’t where to being with this team. They had a 6-3 record going into week eleven but no team can survive two quarterbacks breaking their legs and they also lost both starting guards in two separate games as injuries wreaked havoc over their roster and 2018 campaign. However, this is a franchise that has also just fired a huge number of their front office staff whilst the coaching staff have never quite convinced. Meanwhile, fans are attending games in ever fewer numbers and the glory days on the field are now over a generation away. I’m really not sure what to expect this offseason, a team that claims Reuben Foster on waivers three days after a domestic violence arrest are capable of pretty much anything but it’s possible they could compete in NFC East next year yet I could equally see it all going wrong and I certainly have very little confidence in them for the upcoming off-season.

New York Giants

The Giants got themselves a possibly all-time great a running back in this year’s draft, but that didn’t exactly result in a huge turnaround for the team, which is why the pick was questioned back in April. There is still talk of Eli Manning coming back for another year, but whilst he’s a lot better than I would be, he doesn’t look like the player who was part of two Super Bowl wins. Until they truly face up to, and resolve, the quarterback situation for the future then I think there is a pretty severe limitation to what this franchise can achieve. They also have other areas of the roster to address and are not exactly flushed with cap-space either but at least GM Dave Gettleman has built a Super Bowl contender before. There were questions about his iteration of the Panthers, but they built around Cam Newton and right now I think the Giants need a quarterback they can build round before they can improve by much. The Giants’ fans will live in interesting times this off-season.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings went into the season’s final week needing a win to make it to the playoffs and so they can hope to compete next year, but the window might be closing for a talented team that were hoping that the addition of Kirk Cousins as their quarterback would put them over the top. This very much did not happen, but there were other issues as the offence sputtered this season. The defence may have only slipped a couple of places in DVOA by the end of the year, but you don’t expect a Mike Zimmer defence to ship twenty-seven points to a woeful Bills offence and there were other slip ups. I love Zimmer as a coach, but he has not been able to find an offensive co-ordinator or quarterback to work with long term and this is something the Vikings need to get right this offseason. Cousins isn’t going anywhere with his guaranteed contract and the Vikings have the least amount of cap space available going into next year of the teams who aren’t actually over the cap at the moment i.e. thirtieth in the league. The problem with that is the Vikings’ offensive line is still letting its skill players down and so I have to wonder whether the Vikings will be able to pull something together next season or if they are going to have similar problems again. They are not going to turn into a bad team overnight but I’m not sure how they get the answers they need on offence, which would be a concern if you a fan or attached to the team but I wouldn’t rule them out of improving either. It’s just not as easy to see as for certain other teams and they need to hire the right offensive coordinator and stick by them.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers fired one of the longest tenured coaches in the league this season, having hired a new GM in the offseason and so now we get even more change. On the face of it the Packers job is appealing given the tradition of the Packers and the presence of Aaron Rodgers. However enough people have speculated about Rodgers to make me wonder if there is something about the way he has been handled by the franchise and the stories of his attitude. More concerning is the fact that he is thirty-five, the expectations that come with this job will be huge yet the Packers are in the bottom half of the league for available cap space next season and Green Bay is not exactly a free-agency destination. This is the first season where a healthy enough Aaron Rodgers hasn’t got you into the playoffs, and with the right hires and roster moves I’m sure the Packers can be back in contention next season, but I’m not sure if it is the slam dunk that some might have you believe.

Detroit Lions

The coaching tree of Bill Belichick has not exactly prospered when they have left New England and Matt Partricia had a difficult first season. The offence was hobbled by injury at the skill positions, but long term offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter paid the price and Patricia will now get to hire his own coach to run the offence. However, it would not surprise me if there was very little room for Patricia to manoeuvre going forward as he was hired to take the team on and they went backwards from their 9-7 record of the 2017 season. If Patricia can step away from some of the Belichick inspired behaviours and find his own way then the team could rebound next season, but I would not exactly be surprised if the Lions have another difficult year and then Patricia should be very concerned about his job given how cut throat the world of NFL coaching has got in recent years.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons had a difficult season, with injuries up the spine of their defence wrecking their hopes early in the season and they actually battled back pretty well to finish 7-9. It was always going to be a hard job to follow Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator, but the offence has never quite been the same since he left and Steve Sarkisian has paid the price this off-season after two years of not quite putting it together. That said they still finished with a top ten offence by DVOA and Matt Ryan is thirty-three so whilst the Falcons window to get a championship has not closed, they need to get the new co-ordinator hire right if they are to make this a blip rather than the start of a downward trend. They also can’t have a defence that ranks thirty-first in the league by DVOA, but getting players back from injury and a good draft should solve that, but they really need their offence to fly again if you’ll forgive me the pun. I couldn’t help myself. Sorry…

Carolina Panthers

This was one of the stranger falls from grace as the Panthers were 6-2 after week nine but then lost seven straight games before closing out with a win against a resting Saints team in week seventeen. Until his shoulder started to bother him the unlikely pairing of Cam Newton and sixty-six year old offensive co-ordinator Norv Turner was paying dividends in their first season together, ably assisted by Christian McCaffrey who totalled nearly two thousand yards of offence this season and might have hit it if Cam Newton had not been sat for the last couple of games. More worrying for this team is that the defence slipped from seventh in the league by DVOA to twenty-second. I’m not entirely sure what the off-season holds given that the Panthers have a new owner with a background in finance and analytics whilst the coaching staff have an avowedly old school feel and the team ranks twenty-eighth in terms of cap space for next season. I think a lot of this will be immaterial if Cam Newton can’t get his shoulder healthy and manage it so he’s healthy for all of next season. I know I like to say we’ll have to wait and see a lot, but with the Panthers I think that is especially true for the next fourteen months or so.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers got off to an entertaining start whilst Jameis Winston was suspended, but then things fell apart and head coach Dirk Koetter was let go after a 5-11 season. I’m more surprised that GM Jason Licht is staying and that the Bucs have committed to Winston for next season, but now whoever the new head coach is, he will have to buy into a roster that has threatened but never quite lived up to expectations and make it work. The Bucs are actually twenty-ninth in the league for cap space next year and with a new coach but no questioning of a regime who have failed to have a winning season then I’m not sure I can buy into a turnaround until I can actually see it. For context, the Buccaneers haven’t had a winning season since 2010 or back to back winning seasons since the 1999/2000 seasons. I take no pleasure in this, but I can’t look at this record and the previous four years of Jameis Winston and say yes, the Bucs are going to be fighting for the playoffs next season. As ever, I would be delighted to be proved wrong but I think there is more turbulence to come for this franchise unless they knock this coaching hire out the park.

San Francisco

The 49ers got their first bad piece of injury news in pre-season when running back Jerrick McKinnon, who came across from the Vikings in the off-season, was lost to IR with a knee injury and then quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was lost for the season before the 49ers even made it through a quarter of the season. In fairness the season never really got going and that will be a worry, as will the performance of a defence that couldn’t get out of the twenties by DVOA and a team who were thirtieth in the league overall. You can’t really judge the direction of this franchise by this season but I would imagine that both head coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch will be feeling a sense of urgency going into this offseason. I don’t think it is time to panic, but they could do with a good offseason and a definitive improvement to solidify their project in San Francisco or they might not get to complete it. The 49ers are at least in the top ten for cap space next season so they have room to manoeuvre and I wouldn’t necessarily bet against Lynch and Shanahan pulling it off but we’ll know a lot more by about week five of next season.

Arizona Cardinals

The first thing I want to say about the Cardinals disaster of a season is given the state of the roster, that GM Steve Keim had a five-week suspension from the team after pleading guilty to an extreme DUI charge in the summer, and that the Cardinals’ defence was top ten at points this season, it feels a little unfair to fire head coach Steve Wilks after one year. The offence had a rookie quarterback for lots of the season and a bad offensive line and there is a lot of work to do with this team. I will be interested to see who they go with for next season and how much room Keim will be given to manoeuvre, although he seemed to work very well with Bruce Arians so has some track record with the franchise. It could take more than one offseason to turn things round again though and clearly this is a franchise who now expect a certain level of success but I wonder if they will be able to achieve the results they expect if they don’t show some patience. There are certainly a number of coaches around the league who have demonstrated that in the right situation it is possible to turn things round quickly, but I’m not convinced that any coach doesn’t deserve more than a year unless there are serious problems in the locker room or behind the scenes and I’m not aware of anything like that in Arizona. This is a situation I’m going to watch closely but I wouldn’t like to predict right now what I think will happen next season.

The Disappointed Twenty: AFC Edition

02 Wednesday Jan 2019

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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Adam Gase, Blake Bortles, Brandon Beane, Buffalo Bills, Case Keenum, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, David Caldwell, Denver Broncos, Deshaun Watson, Jacksonville Jaguars, James Conner, John Dorsey, John Elway, Jon Gruden, Josh Allen, Le'Veon Bell, Marcus Mariota, Marvin Lewis, Miami Dolphins, Mike Mayock, Mike Vraebel, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Patrick Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Pittsburgh Steelers, Sam Darnold, Sean McDermott, Tennessee Titans, Todd Bowles, Tom Coughlin, Vance Joseph

It is time to say our sad farewells to the teams that have already gone their separate ways having failed to reach the playoffs. In a bid to make this more manageable to both read and write I will be covering the AFC today and the NFC tomorrow.

Before I begin there is one universal bit of comfort that any fan of the following teams should take, namely that in the NFL a franchise really can turnaround in an off-season, although there are some situations that may take a couple of off-seasons to sort out but even then a big improvement could be in the offing in September.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had a very up and down season that saw a 3-0 start falter and slip to 7-9 record. This has cost Adam Gase his job and it feels like the Dolphins will spend the off-season remaking the roster again and trying to find a franchise quarterback. There were questions raised before the season about trading away some of their best players to address issues in the locker room, but it was a lack of consistency and an utter failure on the road that cost this team. The Dolphins won their first road game against the Jets and failed to win another all year. The season highlight will undoubtedly be the last second hook and ladder play to beat the New England Patriots but once again the Dolphins couldn’t seriously challenge in the AFC East. My concern is that the roster and front office is as much to blame, if not more, than the coaches and until they build a team round a quarterback who can remain healthy for the whole season then there is only so much success they can have. They also rank twenty-seventh in the league for cap space next year and so there is not a lot of room to do much in free agency with the way the team is currently constructed.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills had a tough season this year as they traded away a number of assets to move up in the draft to get their quarterback of the future and whilst this did not affect the defence too badly as it finished second in the league by DVOA, the offence really suffered. The good news regarding Josh Allen was that he proved that he could be effective on the ground in the NFL, but he will need better players around him and to develop as a passer if the Bills are to get back to the playoffs. It will help that there is some stability as GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott are staying in place, and this team played hard for McDermott all year, but the offence will have to improve if they are to get where they want to go. The good news is that they have the third most free cap space next year so they have room to manoeuvre.

New York Jets

Having failed to get into the playoffs for three seasons and only going 4-12 this year the Jets let go of head coach Todd Bowles. I can understand that the franchise felt they needed a new voice, but Bowles was not given a huge amount to work with over the last couple of seasons and the Jets always seemed to play hard for him. The good news is that Sam Darnold is a promising young quarterback, but once again he will need to have the infrastructure placed around him to enable success. The worry will be that the defence also needs work as it only finished twenty-first in the league by DVOA despite Bowles’ pedigree as a defensive mind. At least they will have cap room to work with as they are second only to the Colts in cap space next year, but free-agency success doesn’t always translate onto the field as this franchise has learned only a few seasons ago.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers just missed out on the playoffs and will be kicking themselves about losses to the Broncos and Raiders. However, there was more than a little drama surrounding the team this season and to an outsider it seems that sorting this out may help the on field performance. Part of this should be achieved by the departure in free-agency of Le’Veon Bell, and certainly James Conner was an able and cheaper alternative at running back. In truth there doesn’t need to be big changes as there is an awful lot of talent on this team, who finished sixth on offence and thirteenth on defence by DVOA. I have no doubt the Steelers will be competitive next year and before we say there is too much wrong, with a now competitive Browns franchise the AFC North was one of the tougher divisions in the league this season. Speaking of which…

Cleveland Browns

I billed this post as the disappointed ten, and yes the Browns would prefer to be in the playoffs, but this is the first time since 2010 that the Browns have not been bottom of the division (and yes the Bengals were bottom that season too) and there are definitely things that should give the fans in Cleveland hope. For the first time since the new franchise was founded it looks as if the Browns have got a franchise quarterback and a five and three finish suggests that if the Browns can nail the coaching staff hire this off-season they should be competitive next year. There is plenty of young talent on the roster already and GM John Dorsey has a proven track record of success, whilst the Browns have the fourth most cap space next season. I’m happy for the long suffering fans of Cleveland but it does not make the picture look any better for the Bengals.

Cincinnati Bengals

All teams face injuries and there are plenty of teams who either had more, or had them more clustered, but the offence particularly suffered this season and when the defence didn’t really shape up until the last couple of weeks after Marvin Lewis took control then it’s not surprising that the season sputtered to a halt. The Lewis era is finally over in Cincinnati and I do not forget how much work he had to put in to make the franchise credible and not the laughing stock of the league but how this group moves on is the big question for next season. It is not implausible for the team to bounce back in the off-season, but they will need to be setup to improve and that really all does depend on the coaching staff as there is not much cap room to improve and Mike Brown seems to very much believe in incremental progress. There are a lot of unknowns right now and so us Bengals fans will just have to hope that the next hire is a good one.

Tennessee Titans

For all that I couldn’t get a handle on them for picking purposes, the Titans went 9-7 despite the injuries to quarterback Marcus Mariota and if he can get the nerve issue in his throwing arm to settle down in the off-season then there is no reason why the Titans can’t compete again next season. For all his accolades as a player, Mike Vrabel was a rookie head coach with limited experience as the man calling the shots and he made a winning start in his first year of coaching, which bodes well for the future. The AFC South could be very competitive next season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars had a nightmare season, falling to 5-11 after getting to the conference championship game the year before. It appears that GM David Caldwell and head coach Doug Marone are coming back on Tom Coughlin’s say so but there are real problems here. They have no franchise quarterback and the running back they took ahead of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes has struggled this year and there are reports that he’s been a problem in the locker room. They are also currently over the cap for next season and even if they cut Blake Bortles, $16.5 of his $21 million dollar cap hit would remain as dead money. For all that they have assembled a good defence, they desperately need a functioning solution at quarterback and better players on offence and who knows if they can put that together in the off-season. There may be trouble ahead for the Jaguars next season as a difficult off-season looms.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos could not sustain a challenge to get to the playoffs and ultimately fell to 6-10. The Broncos never really took off under Vance Joseph and with their vaunted defence slipping and Case Keenum not bringing the form he showed with the Vikings last season to the party this year, it feels like there is a lot up in the air this off-season. I don’t know how long it might take for John Elway to feel pressure, but his drafts have not been stellar and his only real success in finding a quarterback was signing Peyton Manning and even then, Manning was a shell of himself when they actually won the Super Bowl. Their cap situation is not a disaster, but they need to get the coaching hire right and nail a draft if they want to compete with the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West, which looks like it will be no easier next season.

Oakland Raiders

The best thing that can be said for the Raiders is that they have a lot of draft capital, but after a tumultuous campaign that saw them go 4-12, the Raiders head into the off-season with nowhere to play their home games next season and questions all over the roster. They have just hired Mike Mayock to be their GM, but whilst he has been a great analyst for ESPN, it is a different job evaluating talent when there are wins on the line and make no mistake it will be Jon Gruden calling the shots. A lot will depend on whether this new pairing can hit the ground running, but with the roster where it is and where to play up in the air, it’s hard to sit here and predict how the Raiders will go next year. Let’s just say it would not exactly be a shock if they struggle again…

Guest Post: How Things Have Changed

31 Monday Dec 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Dan's Dad's Thoughts

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BBC, Birmingham Bulls, Buffalo Bills, Channel 4, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Gridiron, Hubert Humphrey, ITV, Joe Nameth, Leicester City, Leicester Falcons, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, Moe Wiliams, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, Randy Moss, Sky, Super Bowl, UK, UKAFA, West Bromwich Albion, William Perry, World of Sport

So at the end of the season with the year about to end, it feels like looking back is an appropriate thing to do and I have a special post I have been sitting. Having been setting us trivia question for two seasons Dan’s Dad is now stepping up to take a crack at this blogging lark, and whilst I started this blog over four and a half years ago with a post called Why American Football? so Dan’s Dad takes a look at his own voyage of NFL discovery, which might feature a couple of familiar stops along the way.

I hope you enjoy!

Why do any of us follow a sporting team? Why do we take on the joys and frustrations, pain even, that come with being part of the club? It’s hard to say. Being part of a group with shared interests is generally a positive thing but back in the 70’s when I first encountered it the NFL was a very much minority interest sport. It has taken decades of the enthusiasm of many to put it where it currently is in the UK. Without the growing awareness, support and dedication of the fans it could easily have died on the vine, but look at it now and without any doubt TV, so often a vilified intrusion, has been a major factor.

Running alongside the BBC’s Grandstand (Frank Bough) was ITV’s World of sport on a Saturday afternoon and this is where I became infected with the NFL bug. It ran from 1965 to 1985 (with Dickie Davies the best known of its presenters) and was possibly best remembered for horse racing and wrestling but it did allow the very occasional sortie into ‘Gridiron’ football. Admittedly this was limited to about one hour of highlights from the previous week’s Super Bowl and to many this was an alien world of men in padded suits and a scoring system of almost impenetrable complexity. The concept of ‘downs’ and playing a game in ten yard chunks was new and to a 60s and 70s US-infatuated Britain became irresistible for many. But limited coverage became a taster and a trial to see if a bigger offering would be justified. We now know that it certainly was.

I was lucky enough to take a trip to the US in 1971 where my first hand awareness was triggered. From that trip I returned with, sorry for this Dan, a replica Jets shirt and an appreciation of someone called Joe Namath who was one of the stars of the day and still a figure due considerable respect. I was twelve, and to a twelve-year-old just being in the States was huge. Do I follow the Jets now? No, but more of that to come.

By 1982 Channel 4 started showing weekly highlights and that, for me was the match that lit the fuse on the game in the UK to an ever widening audience. By the time that the Bears defeated the Patriots in Super Bowl XX the game was firmly established with no fewer than four million tuning in for that game.

It wasn’t just a spectator sport either and many would argue that crowd control issues in other sports compared to a very safe environment offered by the NFL sport drew audiences. There was also a growth in the number of local teams which culminated in the creation of the UKAFA in 1985 and when Budweiser announced a £300,000 fund to grow the sport in the UK in 1986 when the Leicester Falcons and the Birmingham Bulls played to determine which team would be Britain’s inaugural entry into European competition. The Bulls came out on top in a 32–18 victory.

1986 also saw the first ever official NFL game at Wembley between the Chicago Bears and the Dallas Cowboys. This recognised the growth of the game, its ethos and the personalities it brought with it. The players were the celebrities and none bigger, literally, than William Perry also known as The Fridge. 6ft 3 and 350 lbs Perry was the immovable object both for the Bears, drafted in 1985 and latterly played at the Eagles but had the name that everyone knew. He will forever be remembered as part of the Bears team which took on the Cowboys in the first official NFL game at Wembley.

Channel 4 ceased broadcasts in 1997 but returned in a cut down format in 2010 as a free-to-air offering against Sky whose coverage has become the ‘go to’ product in the view of many.

When Sky TV came to the table and brought their extensive coverage of sport to UK NFL viewers was, for me, an enormous leap in the sport’s fortunes, bigger than that which Channel 4 gave it. I have a downer on turning free to air into pay-to-view and feel that in one way or another football, cricket, golf and F1 in particular have suffered, or sometimes the genuine fans of these sports have been disadvantaged. However, while the above sports were ripe for modernisation, maybe plundering is another word, and Sky could offer that, NFL was on the cusp of becoming mainstream.

Where various channels had ‘dabbled’ and Chanel 4 was largely a highlights offering, the real demand was for live games and Sky could offer that in abundance. With regularly five or more live games (albeit in the middle of the night all too often) and a rolling highlights offering the fan is well served. Include the benefits of Game Pass and the package is almost complete.

The only ‘next step’ is for fully live games and thanks to the advances over the years and the growing, and well supported, International Series the UK has to be approaching its own franchise.

I was lucky to get the opportunity to see a live game during a business trip to Minneapolis in 2003. Even fifteen years later the whole event remains memorable. After five wins the Vikings hosted the Broncos at the Hubert Humphrey winning 28-20 thanks, in part to a majestic lateral from Randy Moss to Moe Williams on the last play of the first half rivalling the double lateral by the Dolphins in Week 14!

It was interesting to see, in the flesh, everything that happens not just what the TV chooses to show. The game is almost choreographed as the various teams switch in and out seamlessly but it’s when there is a game break or a review that you see the complexity of the game.

In the same way I remember my first soccer game, West Bromwich Albion at Leicester, in the days where the Police would watch the game not the crowd. It is so often the first team you see that becomes ‘your team’ and thick or thin (Dan and Gee will both recognise this) they are that for life. So I am a Viking, a Purple People Eater.

The opportunity came along to visit the US again in 2008. We had seen Wembley games but Dan and I managed to see the Vikings at the Bears and the following weekend the Dolphins hosting the Bills. We had to miss that year’s Wembley game to do it but it was worth it. For the record the Bears won 48-41 while the Dolphins won 25-16. While Wembley was special, doing it in the US was another level. Now it would not, probably, be overly unusual to find Brits going to games over there but back then the US fans we met were blown away that a couple of Brits were doing a road trip. That shows how the whole game has evolved here, and how that has shrunk the world and I can only see that continuing.

Look at the development of new arenas in the US. Each new one seems to be grander that the one before, bigger, better facilities – it won’t end but while the UK is keen to get more that also serves the US. It’s not global domination they want, but expanding influence is financially advantageous all round.

With an ever growing opportunity for blogs, podcasts, websites, TV including the BBC and other ways for the fan base to get their NFL fix it is almost inconceivable that the UK will not have its own franchise within ‘a handful’ of seasons. The expansion of the International series was clearly a good way of proving that the UK could support one and the results seem most positive. So advanced are the plans that we also have stadia being built as multi-sport venues even enabling the swapping out of a pitch to suit the next game – and moving to something that size is akin to a new sport being launched. So if the next move for a pitch happens to be about 3500 miles so be it. That would be some Field Goal.

2018 Week Seventeen Picks

30 Sunday Dec 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 17 Picks

So here we are going into the final week and thanks to my best week all year I somehow have managed to take a slender point lead over Dan’s Dad going into the final week.

Gee:                Week 16   13-3           Overall   126-114
Dan’s Dad: Week 16   7-9 Overall   125-115
Dan: Week 16    8-8 Overall   117-123

However, not only is this an important week but it’s one of the trickiest to pick as we don’t know how teams are going to react to playing meaningless games or what teams are trying players with an eye on who they want for next year rather than performance this week. But before we get to the giant week seventeen picks there’s the minor matter of our trivia competition and after getting to the same answer via very different (and in my case insanely jammy) means we move to a somewhat deceptively simple question:

‘Who is the only NFL Player to have a Star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame?’

Now I’m sure there are others, but the only former NFL player that is working as an actor that leaps to my mind is Terry Crews so that is going to be my answer.

‘Firstly, I was convinced that I’d at least tie it up last week but that plan was thwarted by Gee’s random team generator (and a little bit of logic) in the end. This week’s is tough too… it’s got to be someone who has done something noteworthy outside of football to be on the walk of fame. My first thought was Dan Marino, but having been to the Hollywood walk of fame (and as a Dolphins fan of course) I would have spotted and remembered that if he was there. I think I’m going to go with OJ Simpson though. Little less obvious and something just tells me he’s the kind of person who would have a star.’

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-1.5)

The first one of these games is almost an archetypal week seventeen game with both teams not having anything to play for except for individuals trying to keep themselves in the league. However, the Falcons have won two games straight with pretty convincing scorelines including a fourteen-point win over the Panthers in Carolina and that is convincing enough for me.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Dolphins @ Bills (-3.5)

I really don’t like this line as the extra half point tempts towards the Dolphins except they have been a bad road team all season and are a warm weather team travelling to play outdoors in the cold. When you add to that the fact that the Dolphins have only won in one of their last six visits to Buffalo and I’m going to go against my numbers and hope it doesn’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Cowboys @ Giants (-6.5)

This is a curious game in that the New York Giants are actually ranked as the better team by overall DVOA and yet it is the Dallas Cowboys who are resting players having got their playoff seeding set whilst the Giants have only won five games this season. More worrying is the fact that with their recent form there is now noise that Eli Manning will be back next season, which only delays the inevitable transition that needs to take place. Not knowing how much the important players for the Cowboys will play is making this a really hard game to pick, I hate the line and the situation, and want to stay away but as I don’t have that choice and I just don’t have this much faith in the Giants I’m going to grab the points and hope for the best.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

The Green Bay Packers don’t have that much to play for but Aaron Rodgers wants to finished the season with his teammates and having come back from behind last week they welcome a struggling Detroit Lions teams. I don’t like this line going past the -7 but the Lions have real problems on offence thanks to injuries at the skills positions and have the worst defence in the league by DVOA. My spreadsheet actually has a higher number than this and so I’m going to throw caution to the wind and back the Packers to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Jets @ Patriots (-13.5)

It would not surprise me at all if the New England Patriots do well in the playoffs, but things are not quite right with Tom Brady and for a team that often runs the ball and tries to shorten the game in week seventeen this line seems too big. The New York Jets look to have found their long term answer at quarterback, but a lot depends on how they build round him. However, for the last four weeks the Jets have at least been competitive, they beat the Bills in Buffalo and didn’t lose by more than a touchdown, which either means I am right in thinking they will keep this game within two touchdowns or the Patriots are about to get a big score ahead of going into the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Panthers @ Saints (-10.5)

This game sits squarely in the awkward pick category as the Saints are openly talking about game planning without their starters whilst the Panthers are down to their third string quarterback. Having sat Cam Newton for the rest of the season to start the recovery from his shoulder problems, Taylor Heinicke injured his elbow last week and so undrafted rookie Kyle Allen will get the start at quarterback this week, on the road, in New Orleans. I don’t have a lot of confidence in how this game will go and so I’m going to grab the points, but it would not exactly be surprising if there was a lopsided game.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Jaguars @ Texans (-7.5)

Here we are with another line that I don’t like. The Houston Texans can get up to the second seed in the AFC if they win and the Patriots falter, but they are a hard team to rely on given the quality of their offensive line and the injury to Lamar Miller. Meanwhile the Jacksonville Jaguars essentially punted the season when they sat Blake Bortles for the rest of the season and stuck to that decision, even after it Cody Kessler was only able to generate single digit points in his first two games. They have still not cracked twenty points with him at quarterback and this is unlikely to be enough to beat the Houston Texans but with a top five defence by DVOA they might well keep this game closer than eight points, which is what my spreadsheet says and so that’s where I’m going, but I can’t pretend I feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

This is one of the games with meaning for both teams as if the Chicago Bears win and the Rams lose they could get the second seed, whilst the Minnesota Vikings need to win to get into the playoffs. I’m not sure how much of their offence tricks that the Bears will want to show in this game as it is a potential playoff preview, but this seems like a lot of points to be laying by a Vikings team who have three less wins than their opponents. The Bears currently possess the league’s best defence by DVOA, and by ten percentage points at that so I think they will cause problems for a Vikings offence that has improved in recent weeks thanks to a new direction but that still has limitations. In a competitive game I’m going to back the Bears to keep this one within six points.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Bears

Bengals @ Steelers (-14.5)

This line worries me slightly as it is not inconceivable that a Pittsburgh Steelers team who need a win to get into the playoffs and who are playing at home could cover this line, but I basically never lay this number of points as it is one of my guiding principles when making picks. That said part of me does worry about this game because of how banged up and poor the Bengals defence has been this season, but they’ve seemed somewhat better in the last few weeks and so I’m going to hope my usual rules hold in week seventeen.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals.
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)

If the Baltimore Ravens win they are in the playoffs and whilst they also get in if the Bengals beat the Steelers, they will not want to rely on that. However, the Cleveland Browns are no slouches and in this biggest of rivalry games I can’t see anything but a competitive game. The Ravens turned their season around with the addition of Lamar Jackson into their starting line-up but the Browns have gone 5-2 under their current coaching setup and have won three straight. My spreadsheet has this as a pick for the Ravens but I don’t like this number in this situation given how the teams have played in recent weeks and so I’m going to back the Browns to keep the game closer than seven.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Chargers @ Broncos (+6.5)

The LA Chargers still have a chance of getting a bye if they win and the Chiefs lose, but it feels likely that they will end up as a wildcard even though they have one win more than any AFC team not named the Chiefs. The Denver Broncos have nothing left to play for but pride, which explains the line which is tempting despite the problems on the offence and that might be what tips it for me. The Broncos lost their one-thousand-yard undrafted rookie Pro-Bowl running back Phillip Lyndsay last week, and so even with their home field advantage I wonder how competitive they can make this game given they have lost to the 49ers, Browns, and Raiders in the last three weeks. That said they did beat the Chargers last time they played and my spreadsheet is very clearly indicating Broncos and with this many points and in a divisional game I feel like the smart play is to back the Broncos. I could regret it and look very silly, but my turnaround was down to trusting the numbers so that’s what I’m going to do.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Raiders @ Chiefs (-13.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have something to play for this week as they can tie up the number one seed and home field advantage with a win. Despite this being a divisional game I do expect them to win against an Oakland team who have gone 3-3 in their last six games. However, the Chiefs have lost their last two games and haven’t beaten a team by fourteen points or more since week nine and so this line is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

49ers @ Rams (-9.5)

The LA Rams should be looking to rest Todd Gurley another week and trust themselves to win and get themselves a further week to get Gurley healthy for the playoffs. They welcome a San Francisco 49ers team who got two of their four wins in the last three games and have been competitive in all of them. That said this was also a three game home stand but still, travelling to face a Rams team who haven’t quite looked the same since the bye week they could keep it close. My worry is that the spreadsheet says one thing completely counter to what my natural inclination is in this game and with it being week seventeen, I’m not sue which way to lean but in the end this is just too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Eagles @ Washington (+6.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles need a helping hand as well as a win to get into the playoffs but their divisional game takes them to Washington to face a team who have struggled all season and been overcome by injuries. I think the Eagles will get their win but this is too many points for me to ignore given that Washington have made life difficult for too many teams this season. That said, it would not exactly be a surprise if the Eagles were to win by a touchdown but they have too many problems for me to predict it.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-12.5)

This is a surprisingly tricky pick given that it is a huge line, but the Arizona Cardinals have been pretty woeful this season and are bottom of the league by DVOA by quite some gap. They finish the season in the notoriously difficult to play in CenturyLink Field and the spreadsheet says that the Seahawks should cover this line and looking at the Cardinals’ results I can see why and so despite my instincts saying otherwise I’m going to back the Seahawks.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Colts @ Titans (+1.5)

The final game of the weeks is a winner gets in to the playoffs matchup between the Tennessee Titans hosting the Indianapolis Colts. I have been bullish on the Colts for a lot of the year whilst the Titans have tripped me up a lot thanks to their up and down play, but with Marcus Mariota suffering a re-occurrence of his nerve issues and questionable to play I’m going to ignore the home underdog and back the Colts to come out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Titans

AAF:Vikings’ Offence

30 Sunday Dec 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, David Morgan, Detroit Lions, John DeFilippo, Kirk Cousins, Kyle Rudolph, Latavius Murray, Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings, Stefon Diggs

Two weeks ago the Minnesota Vikings fired their offensive coordinator John DeFilippo and having won their last two games by twenty-four and eighteen points I thought I would take a look at their offence against the Detroit Lion in this week’s amateur adventure in film.

The first thing that strikes me as I sit here to recount the game is a warning that whilst there has been a turnaround in the team’s results, meaning the Vikings have a chance of making the playoffs with a win this week, they did not look that great on offence in this game. This might be somewhat worrying considering how lowly the Lions defence rates by DVOA and the comeback the Vikings had to make in the first half.

Now, I’m not going to hold the opening three and out drive against the Vikings as they started the game pinned against their own goal line thanks to a great punt/coverage. However, there were several other drives that also stalled early or broke down through a commitment to the running game that was not necessarily justified by the result. The Vikings only managed to amass one hundred yards on twenty-eight carries but if you look behind the numbers things look a little better as Dalvin Cook did manage to maintain a 4.5 yard per carry average and Latavius Murray was stuffed on a number of runs at the end of the game when the Vikings were running out the clock and did break an eleven-yard run earlier in the game.

The most effective groupings for the Vikings seemed to be a mix or 11 and 12 personnel. Their most effective receiver in this game was actually their move tight-end Kyle Rudolph who caught all nine balls that were thrown to him as well as scoring two touchdowns. Apart from moving round the formation Rudolph also was a key part in the Vikings success in the play action game as he repeatedly blocked initially before leaking out onto a route and catching the ball. This success with the play action pass is one of the benefits in the Vikings’ renewed commitment to the run and it helps that apart from having a versatile tight end in Rudolph who they moved around the formation. They were also comfortable with tight-end David Morgan’s blocking and it has to be said that both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are good blockers for receivers and would often be brought close to the formation for run or play-action run looks.

This was actually quite a quiet game for Diggs catching the ball who on his day can compete with any receiver in the league, but it was his fellow receiver Adam Thielen who had the big day in the receiving group with eighty yards. You can understand why with one of the better receiving duos in the league that DeFilippo could have got caught up in the passing the game, particularly given the way the league is trending. However, given the defence the Vikings possess you can see why Mike Zimmer wanted to run the ball more and it seems to help Kirk Cousins manage the game better. I’m still not sure how good a quarterback Cousins is as at times he looks really good and then he will have some bad turnovers. It feels like for these last two games that less is more for Cousins, and being able to build from the run and play-action game that the Vikings have a better foundation for success. This could be because their offensive line struggles at times, although interestingly they rank much better in the passing game (seventh) than run blocking (twenty-second) when looking at the Football Outsiders offensive line stats. However, when you have a defence who is as good as Minnesota’s, particularly in recent weeks, then a more conservative approach can help both sides of the ball function in balance and I suspect it is a combination of this and asking Kirk Cousins to do slightly less that has turned round results in recent weeks.

Whether this is enough to defeat the Bears and see the Vikings succeed in the playoffs, only time will tell but I could certainly see the Bears defence being good enough to cause the Vikings problems today and success through limiting a quarterback is not why you pay a quarterback twenty million dollars a year, even if that was the cost of getting your man in free-agency.

As the Season Dims

27 Thursday Dec 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Gee's Thoughts

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AFC East, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Lazor, Buffalo Bills, Carson Wentz, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Hue Jackson, Indianapolis Colts, Jon Gruden, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Las Vegas, London, Marvin Lewis, Matt Patricia, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFC East, NFL, Nick Foles, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Stan Kroenke, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans

Here we are, Christmas is done, the year soon will be and so will the NFL regular season. We have one more round of games left and then we’ll wave goodbye to the disappointed twenty and focus in on the post season games.

So what important changes did we get the weekend before Christmas? Well, the New England Patriots claimed their tenth straight AFC East title with a win over the Buffalo Bills but they didn’t exactly convince. The Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East with a win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints beat the Pittsburgh Steelers to secure home field advantage through the playoffs. That result also places the Steelers playoff hopes in jeopardy as they have to beat the Bengals (probably not that hard) this weekend and hope that either the Ravens lose to the Browns (distinctly possible) or that there is a tie between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans. There are other permutations involving a tie with the Bengals and a Ravens’ loss but all the Steelers control is their result against the Bengals. If you look back at the season it’s hard to be too upset about a three-point loss to the Saints in New Orleans, and it will be the losses to the Broncos and Raiders that will haunt the Steelers if they do miss the playoffs. Meanwhile the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts face a winner gets in week seventeen games, which is why that will be final game on Sunday.

Over in the NFC, five teams have secured their playoff berths and the only question left is whether the Philadelphia Eagles can complete their remarkable late season surge by beating Washington and hoping that the Bears can beat the Vikings. There is a route where the Bears could end up facing the Vikings in the Wildcard round so it is likely that the Bears will not pulling out all of their offensive tricks in this Sunday’s game, but apart from that it will be each team for itself and the Eagles hoping for the best. There are even whispers that Nick Foles might be the better quarterback but given his age compared to Carson Wentz it’s hard to see him not moving on in the offseason unless he keeps producing the miraculous.

Stepping away from the playoff picture for a moment, even if I didn’t actually pick it to happen it did not surprise me that the Oakland Raiders won what looks to be their last game in Oakland. After being sued by the city, the Raiders are not planning to play their final year in Oakland before their new Las Vegas stadium is ready and there is some talk of them playing in London for the 2019 season. It seems doubtful that with the logistical challenges of placing a team in London, that the Raiders would try it for a solitary year but it seems that the recent NFL franchise movement has not exactly been a flying success so far and it’s hard to see the Raiders bucking the trend. The now LA Chargers are playing in a small capacity venue and are routinely outnumbered by road fans despite having an 11-4 record. The LA Rams are doing better thanks to their previous links to the city, but it is still not exactly unusual for the well supported teams in the NFL to have sizable contingents present for games. At least Stan Kroenke will own the mega-campus he’s building for the Rams and the NFL, but I do wonder about the long term viability of the Chargers, who will be tenants in the Rams’ facility. The Raiders should make money in Las Vegas given the combination of locals who have already take their NHL team to heart and who could embrace their new football team, and the travelling fans who will leap at the chance to go to Vegas to see their team. How difficult an environment this will make for visiting fans remain to be seen, and there are an important couple of drafts coming for Jon Gruden and whoever is hired to execute his plan as the new GM. However, with no home for next season, a GM to appoint and a vital draft coming it feels like there is too much uncertainty for everything to come good even if some thrive in chaos and for those who are choosing to stick with the Raiders, they will be hoping that Gruden is such a person. It does feel like there are a lot of things that could potentially go wrong for the Raiders in the next couple of years.

Getting back to the week seventeen slate, it seems to make sense to focus on the battle for the playoffs and what is left of this season before worrying too much about the offseason. It is likely to be the games I’ve already mentioned that will be the ones worth watching. This last week features divisional matchups exclusively, which I’m sure the NFL will hope ensures competitive games (even amongst teams who have nothing to play for) but there are careers and jobs on the line as there are every week.

We haven’t even reached the end of the season and there are already stories of the Packers interviewing potential coaches and Matt Patricia is apparently ‘pretty confident’ that his job with the Lions is safe. There is apparently a press conference scheduled for Monday for Marvin Lewis but I have long since given up speculating on how to make sense of the Bengals coaching situation. I’m just hoping the long term plan does not involve Hue Jackson being made head coach, but it is a genuine possibility that worries me a little as I’d favour someone from outside of the central brain trust to freshen things up, although I might take current offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. We can cover all of this and more next week as I write up the disappointed twenty, but for now let’s enjoy the spectacle of those fighting to make the playoffs, and for those of whose team’s aren’t going to make it, as ever there is always next year so let’s grab our last chance to watch them this season.

2018 Week Sixteen Picks

23 Sunday Dec 2018

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 16 Picks

So here we go with the week sixteen weeks, but before that there’s the minor matter of our trivia competition.

‘In Week 3 the Browns beat the Jets 20 – 17, but how many days, and against whom, prior to Sept 20 is it since they had last won? As it’s Christmas I’ll allow you 25 days either way but give 3 points for an exact hit.’

So as odd as this might sound, I’m going to start with the days as I remember that apart from last season’s 0-16, the year before the Browns only went 1-16 (making it all the more remarkable that Hue Jackson kept his job) and there was real talk of them going 0-16 that season so I’m going to work on the theory that they got that solitary win in week sixteen. Counting along the calendar that gives me Sunday the 25^th of December 2016, but whilst I think there were some games on Christmas day I don’t the NFL played the full slate and I hardly think the Browns would be a prime time game so let’s say the Browns won on the 24^th of December 2016, so the Browns went six hundred and thirty-five days without a win. Now here’s the frustrating problem, I have no idea who they beat. Like none… So I’ve gone to a random NFL generator online and spun their wheel. The first team to come up were the Panthers, but I don’t like that as it would be more likely to be a fellow AFC team than an NFC team so I spun again and got the Bengals, but I think I would remember that, so once more I spin and I get the then San Diego now LA Chargers. I have no idea if that is right, but I’m sticking with the Browns beating the Chargers six hundred and thirty-five days before they beat the Jets this season.

‘Ok, I know this. I happen to know that it was a nice little Christmas present for the Browns with their precious win being on Christmas Eve 2016. Their game in week 3 was on the Thursday night, so if I’ve done my maths correctly (and I’ll be annoyed if I’ve not!), I make it 635 days between wins. And the win was against the then San Diego Chargers.’

Falcons @ Panthers (-3.5)

The Atlanta Falcons got their first win in six weeks last week and this week they visit a Carolina Panthers team who having fallen out of the playoffs last week, are sitting Cam Newton so he can start treatment on his injured throwing shoulder. On almost any previous week I would have backed the Panthers in this game, but I’m going for the Falcons in week sixteen given the comparative form and who is starting at quarterback.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Bills @ Patriots (-12.5)

The New England Patriots are very much in control of their own destiny and I’m not going to suggest they will lose to the Bills at home, but things have not been right with them for a number of weeks now and with Josh Gordon stepping away from football for the good of his mental health it doesn’t exactly look to be getting better for the Patriots offence. The Bills defence is still ranked third in the league by DVOA and that alone is enough for me to take the step of backing the Bills to keep this game within thirteen points. I just hope the Patriots usual ability to cover big lines doesn’t suddenly re-appear this week.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Bengals @ Browns (-6.5)

Given their comparative form I have no issue with the Cleveland Browns being favoured in this game, but six and half points feels like a little much given the way the Bengals have played over the last two weeks. The fact that the Bengals have now lost leading receiver Tyler Boyd as well as all the other receiving options does give me pause, but I don’t feel like the Browns are going to win the battle of Ohio by a touchdown. I hope I am right at any rate, even if the Browns will be supremely motivated to beat Hue Jackson.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Buccaneers @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to the Ravens last week and now must travel to Dallas to face a Cowboys teams who will be looking to bounce back from their shutout loss the week before. I’m not sure how competitive this game will be, but the line worries me as they were not at all competitive against the Colts. The Cowboys will be feeling the pressure with the Eagles beating the Rams and Washington managing to stay one game behind but this line is just that little bit too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Vikings @ Lions (+5.5)

The Detroit Lions’ up and down season continue to falter along and whilst most of their problems would seem to be on offence from injury, it is their defence that ranks thirty-first in the league by DVOA and I’m sure some questions are going to asked of their first-year head coach Matt Patricia in the offseason. It doesn’t get any easier for them this week either as they welcome a Minnesota Vikings teams who rediscovered their offence last week on the back of a renewed commitment to running the ball and scored forty points for the first time this season. In a league that never has a big sample size it is dangerous to read too much into one game, but it at least makes sense that reducing the amount Kirk Cousins is asked to do leads to a more efficient game and I like the Vikings to carry their new form into this matchup.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Packers @ Jets (-0.5)

The New York Jets made last week’s game competitive against the Houston Texans and did take a lead in the fourth quarter, albeit a short lived one. However, there are thirteen places between them and the visiting Green Bay Packers in the overall DVOA rankings and whilst this has only manifested itself in one more win this season, Aaron Rodgers is planning to play out the season with his team and even on a down year I’m going to back him in this matchup.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Giants @ Colts (-9.5)

I like the direction the Indianapolis Colts are heading in and they remain in the playoff hunt. Coming off a strong showing against the Cowboys you can see why they are favourites against a New York Giants team who have struggled all season despite their talent at the offensive skill positions. Having got shut out and lost by seventeen last week, it is not like setting this line against the Giants is an insult but the Colts themselves got shut out two weeks ago by the Jaguars and so I’m not so confident that I will predict they win by ten. I could be wrong, but this line is just that little bit too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Jaguars @ Dolphins (-4.5)

The Miami Dolphins got beat badly last week but they have also been terrible on the road losing every game bar their first against the Jets. That said, they are 6-1 at home and this week welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars who after a 3-1 start to the season have only won one game since then. The change at quarterback has not exactly invigorated the Jaguars offence and on the road I don’t expect them to set the world alight but it is still hard to have this much faith in the Dolphins. It’s not that they don’t deserve to be favourites, but this feels like too many points to be giving up for a team I don’t trust. I’m sure Dan would be very happy to see me proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Texans @ Eagles (-0.5)

This is a sneaky good game as the Houston Texans take their 10-4 record to Philadelphia to see if they can beat an Eagles team who dragged themselves back into the contest for the NFC East with their win over the Rams last week. The Eagles chances still rests on the Cowboys slipping up but they have something to play for and looked much better against the Rams last week. What I’m not sure about is how these teams will play against each other and this line is not exactly helping but their 5-2 record on the road looks to favour the Texans yet I’m not sure they are two and half points better than the Eagles, which is what this line suggests. I’m going to nervously back the home team and hope I’m not making a big mistake.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Bears @ 49ers (+3.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have won two straight and found a little something toward the end of what has been a difficult season. This week they face a Chicago Bears team who clinched their division with a win over the Packers last week and whilst there is some potential for a let down for the Bears, they are now only a game back from the Rams and so a playoff bye week is up for grabs. Perhaps more importantly, the Bears number one defence in the league by DVOA will make it a very long day for Nick Mullens. This line is really tempting as home underdogs usually are but in the end, I’m going with the Bears.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Rams @ Cardinals (+14.5)

This is a surprisingly big game for the LA Rams who have now lost two straight and have not looked themselves for weeks now. They will be looking to get right against the bottom ranked team in the league by DVOA and whilst early in the season I might have backed them to cover this line, right now I think it is way too high. The Arizona Cardinals have had a miserable season but they actually rank fifteenth in the league on defence by DVOA and fifteen point wins are not that common, especially for a team who haven’t looked right and need to rest an injured Todd Gurley.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Steelers @ Saints (-6.5)

This should be a cracking game as the league leading New Orleans Saints welcome a Pittsburgh Steelers team who got back on track last week with a win over the New England Patriots. The Saints are a really good home team but their offence has gone down a notch or two in recent weeks yet they’ve kept winning thanks to their defence gradually improving across the year. The Steelers have been more up and down and dropped a bad game on the road against the Raiders in week fourteen. I know that Ben Roethlisberger is not the same quarterback on the road as he is at home, but I this line is too much for me given the recent points output of the Saints as I think this should be a close and fun contest.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Chiefs @ Seahawks (+2.5)

We follow one cracking game with another as the Kansas City Chiefs visit Seattle to take on a Seahawks team who will be smarting having lost on the road to the 49ers last week. The Seahawks still have an edge in the NFC wildcard hunt but they can’t afford to keep dropping games even if they do play the Cardinals in week seventeen. The Chiefs come into this game with the better record and DVOA ranking, but with receivers banged up and having cut Kareem Hunt a couple of weeks ago when the video of him kicking a woman was released by TMZ, their offence has not looked the same. As strange as it might have sounded at the start of the season, Patrick Mahomes is what is making the Cheifs’ offence go right now but Seattle is a tough place to play and that is enough for me to grab the points with the home underdog.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Broncos @ Raiders (+2.5)

Out final game of the week sees one team who only fell out the playoff hunt a couple of weeks ago visiting a team who all but announced they were rebuilding at the start of the year when they traded away Khalil Mack. That move catapulted the Bears into a division win whilst I still can’t understand it for the Raiders, who may have beat the Steelers in week fourteen but crashed back to earth last week when they lost 16-30 to the Bengals. Two of the Raiders’ three wins have come at home and getting points might be tempting, but their defence ranks thirty-first against the pass and twenty-seventh against the run by DVOA and with undrafted rookie running back Phillip Lindsay heading to the Pro Bowl I think a Broncos team with twice the number of wins will have enough to see the Raiders out. This looks like it could be the Raiders last game in Oakland, which could throw a spanner in the works but I’m going to trust my numbers on this one as I can’t stay away.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Riders

The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

Author Archives: gee4213

Sunday Wildcards

AAF: Saquon Barkley

Wildcard Saturday

The Disappointed Twenty: NFC Edition

The Disappointed Twenty: AFC Edition

Guest Post: How Things Have Changed

2018 Week Seventeen Picks

AAF:Vikings’ Offence

As the Season Dims

2018 Week Sixteen Picks