Tag Archives: New England Patriots

Anyone got any plans for the weekend?

30 Wednesday Jan 2019

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

So, here we are! It’s that time of year again where all of your mates, even the ones who don’t watch any other games all season, become big NFL fans! We’re down to the final two, with the best of the AFC, namely the New England Patriots, facing off against the NFC’s LA Rams.

It’s an exciting one this year. I genuinely believe that either team could be leaving Atlanta with the Vince Lombardi trophy, and I can’t wait to see how the game goes. Lets take a look at the two teams involved.

A handy guide for Sunday night…

AFC: New England Patriots – 11-5

What can I say about the Patriots that hasn’t already been said? The combination of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick is one of the most successful partnerships in NFL history, having lead their Patriots to 5 Super Bowl championships; 4 of them with Mr Brady winning the Super Bowl MVP! This is the Patriots third representation of the AFC in the big one in row with them beating Falcons and losing to the Eagles in the last 2.

But this year, I believe that they’re a little more beatable than they have in the run up to the last couple of outings. This year, they’ve dropped games against the Jaguars (Week 2), Lions (Week 3), Titans (Week 10), Dolphins (Week 14) and Steelers (Week 15), none of whom made it to the post-season. On top of that, you can’t argue that Tom Brady is getting on a bit. It’s been interesting this week to hear him say that he ‘doesn’t know’ if Sunday’s game will be his last [He did say he had zero intention to retire -Ed.]. Personally, I can’t see it, but at the same time, if he does play again next year, I can’t see him being able to keep up the standard that everyone is used to seeing from him.

His target men have been a little bit unexpected this year. James White (a Running Back) has been targeted the most, and made the most catches this year, and losing someone like Josh Gordon towards the end of the season to suspension won’t have helped. On top of that, if you exclude the 2016 season when he was injured for half of the year, this has been statistically his worst year since 2013 – something which hasn’t helped to silence the noise about him potentially retiring too.

If things don’t go their way on Sunday, we really could be watching the end of their franchise dominance… (much to the delight of the rest of the AFC East!).

NFC: Los Angeles Rams – 13-3

It seems a long time since the Rams entered LA in 2016 with a 4-12 record. Since then, certainly in the last couple of seasons, they’ve been one of the most exciting franchises to watch in the league. This will have been in no small part down to the introduction of current Head Coach Sean McVay, who has breathed new life into the team.

Their route to the Super Bowl, via an overtime victory over the New Orleans Saints, was marred with more than a little controversy – with a missed interference call on a play that also had a helmet to helmet hit at the end of the fourth quarter which may well have lead to a different end result – but for me, you win some and you lose some throughout the year, it just happens to have come at the perfect time for them!

What has surprised me a little is that the Rams frankly loaded defence ranks 19th in the league this year. When you think that their line is stacked with the likes of Aaron Donald (who I think I’m developing a Gee/JJ Watt style man-crush on! [No fair, you are an offence man and I have an ethical polly approach to my love of destuctive interior defensive linemen – Ed.]) and Ndamukong Suh, I really would expect them to be much higher up the list.

On the other side of the ball, Jarred Goff has had a great season in his second year as starting QB. He’s been helped out by Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods who have done well, and you can’t talk about the Rams offence without taking a look at Todd Gurley. He was just slightly under his rushing yard total from last season, but has been extremely important for the team, running in 17 TDs throughout the year.

And their other benefit is their kicking game – as a team, you’ve got to go a long way to find a better pairing than Johnny Hekker and Greg Zuerlein, who have made some monster kicks and punts this year.

My Verdict

This is the most difficult Super Bowl to pick for a good few years. I had a hunch about the Rams back in March, and on balance, I think I’m going to stick with them for the win in the early hours of Monday morning. That being said, if you saw how my picks went this year, they may not be thanking me for that…

One final update on the bet before I sign off – as you’d expect, the cash out value has fluctuated a bit throughout the week and a half since they made it through, but it’s now at its most tempting!

And that’ll be it from me for now. One more post next week, and I’ll be taking a well earned break. As always, I’ve got Monday off work, so Sunday will be America day in our house, where I drink American lager, eat Corn Dogs, and watch the big game… and I can’t wait!

I’ll be tweeting throughout the game, so can’t wait to hear how you’re celebrating the occasion, and what your plans are for Sunday night – tweet me and let me know!

Oh, and if you know where I can get hold of some Corn Dogs in the UK, I’m reaching Def-Con-One here!

@TWFDan

AAF: Patriots Defence

28 Monday Jan 2019

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film, Gee's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

For the first coaching tape I watched in preparation for the Super Bowl was me taking a look at the Patriots defence and how they contained the Chiefs offence, holding them scoreless in the first half and limiting them to under three hundred total yards. In fact their two hundred and ninety total yards was the lowest for the Chiefs’ offence all season and only the second time they were kept under three hundred yards.

So how did the Patriots manage this and how did the Chiefs score thirty-one points in one half of football?

Well the game plan was pretty consistent through both halves and I will start with the coverage choices and work my way forwards. It is a well known fact the Patriots will often double cover a team’s best receiver, but they will use their best corner to cover the teams second best receiver. Now I confess that I didn’t track which corner was covering each player through the entire game as I have to limit what I track to get posts out. If someone wants to pay me to go more in depth I’m all for it! What I can say is that the Patriots doubled Tyreek Hill for the entire game and played with one high safety. This was a gamble that paid off and it needed to as this meant they were effectively playing cover 0 for the rest of the Chief’s receiving options. However, Hill was only targeted three times in this game and had one catch when running a route from the slot where he got a clean release and therefore was able to use a fake in and out break to find a soft part of the bracket coverage and catch his one pass that did go for forty-two yards. The rest of the receivers were then singled covered and whilst Sammy Watkins did catch four balls for one hundred and fourteen yard, he got no touchdowns. The other thing to mention regarding the Patriots’ coverage was they were hardly ever in what would be considered a base defence of 3-4. Mostly they played a mixture of 2-4 nickel and 3-2 dime, using the extra defensive back(s) to cover Travis Kelce, who himself only had three receptions from three targets although he did get a touchdown.

The counter to lining up with this kind of personnel and formation would be to run up the middle with more power, but whilst the Chiefs did use more 12 personnel in the second half, full back Anthony Sherman only got one snap on offence in a goal line formation. In case you are curious, Sherman did have twenty-three snaps on special teams so it is not like he was not contributing to this game, but he was not a part of the offensive game plan. The Chiefs were not however, able to get their run game going consistently on this game anyway. Their longest run of the game was a ten yarder by Damien Williams, and if you remove that from his rushing totals then Williams’ pedestrian three yards per carry drops to a woeful two point two. The second longest run was Patrick Mahomes, who scrambled for nine when the defence opened up before him but he is not a rushing quarterback and with that I have covered all the Chiefs’ runs in this game!

Now part of this is to do with game flow. The Patriots set out to run the ball and control the clock, which they managed to do and having put up a lead and amassed double the time of possession, the Chiefs had to rely on their explosive offence to catch up. It took time for Mahomes to adjust to what the Patriots were doing and to find ways of completing passes. Often there were no receivers open and Mahomes got bailed out a couple of times by defensive holding or pass interference penalties, several of which were given away by JC Jackson. Mahomes also got sacked four times as the Patriots racked up ten quarterback hits, but the good news for the Chiefs going forward is that Mahomes did find those ways in the second half and going forward he is only going to improve in such situations as he gains experience.

I’ll finish up with the two players in the front seven who particularly caught my eye. The obvious candidate is Kyle Van Noye who lined up all round the linebacker spots and racked up ten tackles, eight of them solo, as well as two sacks and a quarterback hit as well as forcing a fumble. If Van Noye was the all action super star, then Trey Flowers was the man causing the disruption in the front seven with his hand in the dirt. He may have only got two tackles but he paired that with a sack and two quarterback hits as well as getting one of those tackles for a loss.

It is kind of appropriate for a team like the Patriots to not have people leaping of the screen all over the defence, but to posses a collective doing their jobs to make an effective whole. There’s no guarantee that the same players will shine in the Super Bowl, or that the same scheme and personnel groupings will be used. I suspect they could well use the coverage trick I described a start of this piece again, but seeing what they come up with to limit the Sean McVay and the Rams’ offence is probably what I’m most looking forward to watching this Sunday. Until then, I shall take a look at the Rams defence given that I watched the Rams offence only a couple of weeks ago.

Conference Championship Games

20 Sunday Jan 2019

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Tonight we get the top two teams from both conferences competing to see who goes to the Super Bowl, which is much more important than our trivia competition but we’re doing it anyway!

‘For this week I’ll keep it simple and its ONE point for each of the 3 questions.

In the 2018 Regular season who had the most sacks?

We have already asked which team has made the most Championship appearances (The Steelers with 16) but who has made the second most?

Finally, which team has won the most Championship games?

Dan still has a 1 point advantage – will that be the case come Sunday?’

Okay, so this is a varied set of questions, but let’s see how we go. I’m pretty certain that the answer to the first question is Aaron Donald, which just goes to show how impressive he is as he got them playing defensive tackle.

I’m slightly worried that there is a trick to the other questions because this brings back to my mind the overall record post I did in the summer before this season and so I am sure that the team with the most championship wins is the Green Bay Packers, but were they super-efficient and got it on fewer tries or are they second to the Steelers in terms of appearances? The Packers got thirteen championships (I have the spreadsheet to prove it) and if the Steelers were first with sixteen then the Packers were in at least thirteen championship games so I’m sticking with them for both questions. I look forward to being proved wrong…

‘I’m really feeling the pressure here – after a terrible pick-em season, I’m desperate to win the trivia competition, and with 3 weeks left (I think) I’m getting nervous!

Question one I’m going to go with Aaron Donald – it’s a bit of a guess but he’s been a sack machine for years so I’ll go with him for the most this season.
Sorry to jump around, but I’m going for the Patriots as the team who have won the most Conference Championships in Q3 and I’m between them and the Packers for second most appearances in question two… I think I’ll stick with the Patriots for both answers.’

LA Rams @ New Orleans Saints

The first game on Sunday sees the LA Rams take their second ranked offence and nineteenth ranked defence by DVOA to play the slightly more evenly spread New Orleans Saints. The Saints actually rank fourth in offence and eleventh in defence but fourth in overall DVOA.

What does this all mean given that all four teams playing this weekend are ranked in the top seven by DVOA?

At this stage of the season I’m not entirely sure. Neither team’s offence has been at the peak of their form in recent weeks, but the Rams performance on the ground against the Dallas Cowboys’ run defence was particularly impressive so you have to think that running the ball will feature heavily in Sean McVay’s game plan. The combination of CJ Anderson, picked up as a free agent late in the season, and a now healthy Todd Gurley created a fearsome tandem that the Rams used to amass two hundred and thirty-eight yards between them with both rushing for one hundred yard. I have again run out of time to finish the coaching tape I was watching this week, but I did see how the Rams managed to run the ball so effectively with 11 personnel. The mix of repeated jet motion, moving the tight end, and even end around runs by Josh Reynolds and fakes of the same created consistent motion going both ways that served to make a good run defence a step slow. The Saints rushing defence actually ranked two places higher by DVOA at the end of the season that the Cowboys, but a big question in this game is how will the injury to defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins last week affect the Saints ability to pressure and hold up in the middle of their defensive line.

The Saints might not be too dissimilar in the way they attack the LA Rams defence given that the Rams finished the season ranked twenty-eighth in rush defence by DVOA and the Saints have both Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram able to run and catch passes out of the backfield. Kamara is devastating in space, whereas Ingram is a more powerful runner and the Rams will have their hands full dealing with this duo. Getting Ted Ginn back from injury has allowed the Saints to stretch the field more, but the awkward truth is that these days Drew Brees struggles a little to get the ball deep as the opening play interception in the game last week demonstrates because Brees underthrew Ginn. The worry for the Saints is that whilst the Rams rush defence is not great, they do have Aaron Donald who is probably the most disruptive defensive player in the league and left guard Andrus Peat is playing with a broken hand. I know offensive linemen are a different breed when it comes to injury, but this is not a great time to be nursing an injury and the Saints also had centre Max Unger dealing with a knee injury during the week.

In recent years it has been the home teams who have been getting through to the Super Bowl, but this game feels really tight. The Saints have a great home advantage, and the experience at head coach and quarterback, but there are some injury concerns and the Rams have several players who can take over a game as well as a really well schemed offence. I would lean to the Saints still, mainly because of Drew Brees’ experience as compared to Jared Goff and Sean Payton’s knack of being aggressive at the right time but it wouldn’t exactly be a surprise if the Rams won.

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs

I have been one of many who have wondered about the form of the Patriots this year, but that does not mean that I think they suck as Tom Brady claimed after their win over the Chargers this week. We are all pretty familiar with the legend of the sixth round quarterback and how he is still using that slight and others to motivate himself. Given the success that him and Bill Belichick have had over the years I was definitely not overlooking them last week, and lo and behold, they demonstrated what they are truly capable of. We had Julian Edleman throw back the clock and catch nine balls for one hundred and fifty-one yards whilst James White caught fifteen balls out of the backfield on screen plays and gained ninety-seven yards. Meanwhile Sony Michel ran for one hundred and twenty-nine yards, helped by the blocking of fullback James Develin and in particular Rob Gronkowski. Gronk may have had only one reception in this game, but he blocked effectively and looked good doing it as the Patriots put up forty-one points to give themselves control for the entire game. Now they take this offence to Arrowhead stadium and have to try to keep up with a great Chiefs’ offence. This the Patriots can definitely do, but it is frequently foolish to try to predict how the Patriots will approach the game. I suspect they will try to use their multiple running backs and short passing game to slow the Chiefs’ pass rush and given that their defence ranked twenty-sixth by DVOA at the end of the regular season they may stand a chance, but I’ll come back to that after we’ve talked the Chiefs properly.

The Chiefs have been one of the dominant teams of this season as well as one of the defining narratives thanks to the performance of Patrick Mahomes in his first full season of starting. The young quarterback has continually wowed with his ability to throw the ball as he racked up fifty touchdowns and over five thousand yards during the regular season. He showed few signs of nerves last week as the Chiefs made short work of a Colts team who had been as good as anyone in recent weeks. The defence has been the weakness of this team through the season, but they looked really good against the Colts even if Eric Berry continues to sit out. The Chiefs lost 40-43 in New England earlier this season and this was one of the few games where Mahomes showed some nerves and he threw two of his twelve interceptions that week. However, this week they welcome the Patriots to their own turf in what should be a second great game this.

This game is really hard to call, there is always an unpredictability to the approach that Bill Bilichick will take, whilst Andy Reid’s team has looked great all season. If anybody can silence the raucous Arrowhead crowd it is Tom Brady, but with a defence that is mid-table by DVOA the Patriots will need to keep up with the Chiefs offence. Given the time of year and the weather we may not get the explosion of points there were in their previous meeting, but Patriots have not been good on the road this season and so despite never wanting to bet against the Patriots I am leaning towards the Chiefs in this one.

We should be in for two great games today and then all of a sudden we’ll have two weeks full of news and no football (no, the Pro Bowl doesn’t count) and then it will be the big day. I’m looking forward to all three games as there are simply no bad matchup in any combination of the four teams left, let’s hope the games live up to expectations.

The Divisional Dismayed

17 Thursday Jan 2019

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

There are two games and two weekends left between now and the Super Bowl, and I will give full attention to the teams in the Conference Championship games on Sunday before the teams take the field, but it is time to say goodbye to the divisional dismayed who fell last week.

There is a reason that teams fight for the top two seed and last weekend the advantages told as all four home teams won, and so to the losers.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts might be the least dismayed team to lose this round. Their performance against the Chiefs was worrying as both sides of the ball struggled in the cold of Arrowhead but in head coach Frank Reich’s first year the Colts were really competitive and this bodes well for the future. Reich’s tenure started late after Josh McDaniels pulled out of the job late after the Patriots’ Super Bowl loss, but Reich and the coaching staff have already established an identity with a roster that has been turned around in only a couple of off-seasons by GM Chris Ballard. I expect them to be a real force next season given that Ballard has another draft and the most cap room for the 2019 season to further augment this team. Whilst there is no guarantee of success given the volatility of the NFL and injury luck, I do tip the Colts to be right up there with the best next season now they have surrounded Andrew Luck with the talent to make the most of his skills. Luck has looked really good in this latter half of the season, although he seemed to be off last weekend, but after it looked for a while like we might not seem him play again the success this season is hopefully laying the ground work for future seasons. I just hope I’m not jinxing the 2019 Colts by being this optimistic about them.

Dallas Cowboys

I’m conflicted about how the Cowboys will fare next season as whilst there were definite positives to take from this season, there are also a bunch of question. This starts with head coach Jason Garrett who survives another year as Jerry’s man, but the nine year head coach added just his second playoff win to a record of three playoff visits and Garrett has never got beyond the divisional round. The defence looked really good for long stretches of this season, but we know that defence is more volatile than offence, and the Rams ran all over the Cowboys on Saturday and that was the strength of this Cowboys defence. Meanwhile, the offence desperately needs more options around Dak Prescott who is about to go into the final season of his rookie deal. For once the Cowboys cap number does not look bad as they have the tenth amount of space in the league when looking at 2019, but the big question will be how much of this space will Prescott’s deal take and the Cowboys have frequently not been afraid of handing out big deals to starts and regretting it towards the end of the deal. They have enough young talent to be competitive again next season, but I do wonder if there is a ceiling to what they can achieve without some serious tweaking. Everyone will be watching the Cowboys anyway, but I don’t know if the 2019 team will be able to break into the elite strata of teams truly competing for the Super Bowl.

LA Chargers

There is a lot of good to take from the Chargers season but they are another team that head into the off-season with a lot of questions surrounding them. They got thoroughly outplayed by the Patriots on Sunday, and kept seven defensive backs on the field for longer than they should have so that tells you the linebackers need upgrading. The offensive line also gave up too much pressure and so re-enforcements would be a welcome addition, but the not so secret question is how much longer can Philip Rivers go? The thirty-five year old quarterback has won one of his nine games against the Patriots and is 0-5 in Gillete Stadium. I’m not saying that he can’t win, but the Chargers don’t have a lot of time to turn things round and whilst Anthony Lynn has done well in his first two seasons as head coach of the Chargers, there is still work to be done and very little cap room for next year. The Chargers are not exactly bringing in the fans from LA either, despite being a competitive team. If Joey Bosa can be healthy all next season then the Chargers could be right up there with the best in the league again, but in the longer term we might be looking at quarterback controversies and a franchise that hasn’t been able to truly establish itself in a demanding market. There was no football in LA for a long time, and teams have struggled and moved away from the city before, and with the Rams’ previous history in LA serving them well I can’t help but wonder where the Chargers will be playing once Rivers calls it a day. For now though, let’s enjoy what we have.

Philadelphia Eagles

The defending Eagles did well to get back to the playoffs given the way the season started for them and how many injuries the roster sustained. They will be hoping to return a lot of players next season, but will need to add some speed to an offence that couldn’t stretch the field and find a consistent running game as well as shoring up the back of the defence. For all his playoff magic, Nick Foles, Super Bowl winning quarterback, will be playing for someone else next season, but Carson Wentz’s stress fracture will be healed in plenty of time for him to have a full off-season and I suspect he will be even better for the Eagles another twelve months away from his knee surgery. After all the turnover in the coaching staff last season, where the offence suffered a real brain drain, I think that the Eagles will be raring to go next season. They may be solidly in the middle in terms of cap space, but Howie Roseman has demonstrated his aggressive strategy of draft trades and free agent moves can build incredibly deep rosters and after this season, I would expect the Eagles to be back at it again next season. I can hear the fans singing, ‘Fly Eagles fly!’ already.

4 Teams, 3 Games, 2 Weekends and a Super Bowl!

16 Wednesday Jan 2019

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

It’s really hard to believe that there’s only just over 2 weeks left before ‘America Day’ descends upon the TWFDan Household and we gear up for the Super Bowl. It doesn’t seem like more than a month or two since the season began – I vividly remember feeling like a kid on Christmas Eve back on the evening of the 8th September as I waited for the Dolphins to kick off their season (little did I know that game would take over 7 hours to complete due to various weather delays!!).

But we’re down to the Elite Four now, with the Rams and Saints representing the NFC, and the Patriots and Chiefs waving the Red flag for the AFC, and once again it’s both conference’s first and second seeds who meet for a place in the Super Bowl.

Before we look at those games though, I want to quickly mention the Head Coaching situation in Miami, following Adam Gase being relieved of his duties a couple of weeks ago. It’s looking pretty nailed on that the Dolphins will be recruiting current New England Patriots Defensive Coordinator and Linebackers Coach Brian Flores as their new main man. It’s looked that way for a while, and if you follow the Miami Dolphins on Twitter, you’ll know that they made it very clear very early that he was their favoured candidate. I don’t know a huge amount about him but he’s growing on me from what I’m hearing. He’s very much invested in the ‘winning way of life’ at New England, having been with the team since 2004, and I think that’s something that Stephen Ross and GM Chris Grier will be keen for him to bring over to Miami. One thing that makes me a little wary is that he was the guy responsible for putting Gronk in the Safety position for the Miami Miracle play a few weeks back, but I suppose I could see what he was doing in covering the Hail Mary, so I’ll let him off.

Adam Gase, by the way, wasted no time in finding himself a new job… and some controversy the process. He’s landed the Head Coaching role in the green half of New York, and to say he’s been an unpopular choice is a bit of an understatement. The New York Post’s back page headline of “Jets choose Fish failure Gase to be head coach” the day after his announcement tells you a lot of what you need to know about that appointment…

Onto this weeks games, and lets start in the NFC.

LA Rams @ New Orleans Saints

The first game sees a meeting of 2 teams who both finished 13-3 and more than deserve their place in this one. Last week saw the Rams survive a bit of a late charge from the Cowboys to make it here in a game in which their rushing game absolutely dominated, with CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley both having over 100 yard games, and sharing nearly 40 carries. The Saints on the other hand started very slowly on Sunday night against the Eagles, going 14-0 down after less than 10 minutes of play, but 20 unanswered points in the remaining quarters saw them see off the defending champions. That one could have finished very differently though, with Philly getting to within 27 yards of a potential winning touchdown before an interception intended for Alshon Jefferey was picked off – an unfortunate way for Nick Foles career with the Eagles to come to an end.

This weekend though is a tough one. I really want the Rams to win this – I’d like nothing more for my bet to still be alive going into the big game as it’ll make things even more interesting for me, but I’m struggling to see it going that way. I think it’ll be close, but I’m going for the Saints to take the game. Onto the AFC…

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs

Man, I’m bored of New England. I mean, I’m really REALLY bored of the Patriots making it to the Super Bowl. And that’s not just sour grapes as a Dolphins fan, but it really is about time someone else got to represent the red brand. They have done well to get here though after a slightly shaky start to the season. Last weekend, they were pretty dominant over the LA Chargers, going 38-7 up at one point towards the end of the Third quarter. Sony Michel made his sixth 100+ rushing yard game of his rookie season and is starting to look like he was a pretty handy draft.

The Chiefs were also pretty dominant beating the Colts by 31 points to 13. I didn’t manage to catch much of that game unfortunately, but from what I hear, they fully deserved their win.

But who’s going to make it to the Super Bowl? I really want to say Kansas, but as much as people talk down the Patriots (there was even someone on the NFL Network this weekend suggesting that they would lose to the Chargers and this would be the ‘end of the dynasty’), I still think they’ve got another super bowl in them unfortunately, so I’m going to pick the Patriots.

And that’s definitely not because my picks for the playoffs have been rubbish and I just want to jinx them… or is it!

Before I sign off, for the penultimate time (assuming they win!) here’s a look at how my bet is looking:

Interestingly, the Rams are now joint 3rd Favourites (with the Patriots, both on 4.5), with the Saints current favourites (2.8) and Chiefs in between on 3.6.

So who do you think will make it to the Super Bowl? And what are your thoughts on the coaching moves we’ve seen so far? Drop me a line on Twitter and lets have a chat.

Until next time…

@TWFDan

Sunday Divisional Games

13 Sunday Jan 2019

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Following on from Saturday’s contests, we have the Sunday Divisional games, although I have to fail at the trivia competition first:

‘First then, for the 2018 Regular Season only who scored the most touchdowns? Name, Team and Number for a max 3 points.

My second Divisional related question was triggered by the chaos which followed the Vikings TD as time expired last year.

What penalty is to be applied if a team lines up for scrimmage with fewer than 11 on the field? 2 points available here.’

There was a clarification on the first question that a quarterback running the ball would count, but not passes as we were looking for the play crossing the goal line with the ball. This immediately made me think of quarterbacks and suspected Cam Newton, but I just don’t think that quarterbacks get enough of an opportunity to lead the league in touchdowns so I’m going to jump positions on the Panthers and plump for Christian McCaffery, who had a fantastic year and I’m going for eight touchdowns.

As for the penalty, I’m not sure there is one but my guess is illegal formation as what else could it be? Well, I’ll find out later in the week!

‘Tricky questions again this week, and I feel a bit more pressure now I’m leading!

Question one I had to clarify as I was originally thinking of a Quarterback who will have thrown the most touchdowns, but apparently that doesn’t count. So I think it’ll be a running back, and I’m a bit torn between Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara…. I think I’ll go with Saints Number 41, Alvin Kamara.

Second question I think is a bit of a trick. Obviously there’s a penalty for having too many players on the field, but I don’t think there is one for having too few. I’m just struggling to justify why that answer warrants 2 points and whether there’s another answer to go with it, but I’ll stick with that!’

LA Chargers (5th) @ New England Patriots(2nd)

Another year, another division win for the New England Patriots but this is the first time in nine seasons that they didn’t get at least twelve wins. There have been several, is he slipping moments for Tom Brady in recent seasons, which is perhaps not that surprising given that he is now forty-one, but the Patriots have not been as convincing this season as in recent years. Part of this is the relative weakness of their receiver group, which was worrying enough that the Patriots took the risk of trading for Josh Gordon. The troubled receiver did supply help on the field for a while, but even the Patriots couldn’t help Gordon off the field and it may be that the football environment may not be conducive for Gordon staying healthy. Back on the field, Rob Gronkowski has laboured all season and doesn’t look himself, but Brady has thrown for over four thousand yards and the Patriots do rank fifth in the league by DVOA so all is not terrible. They have lost some surprising games but their defence ranks better by DVOA than last year they still earned a bye week for the start of the playoffs.

This week the entertain one of the more dangerous fifth seeds of recent years in the twelve win LA Chargers. I didn’t get to watch all of the coaching tape from last week, but the Chargers played with seven defensive backs to counter the Ravens running game, reminding everyone just how good a defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is. It also helps that in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, Bradley has the players to get pressure on the quarterback whilst rushing four, which is the nearest anyone has found to a formula to stop Tom Brady. For all his regular season success, Philip Rivers has not had the playoff victories he wold have hoped for and has a pair of playoff losses to the Patriots from the 07/08 seasons to avenge. The Chargers have really played well this season and stand as good a chance of dethroning the Patriots as anyone has in recent years. However, winning in Foxborough is never easy and particularly not in the playoffs and so I must give the edge to the Patriots as I don’t think you can count them out until they have lost, but this is a dangerous game for them.

Philadelphia Eagles (6th) @ New Orleans Saints (1st)

The New Orleans Saints took a step forward last season with a draft that yielded the offensive and defensive rookies of the year and finally pairing a defence good enough to help the always proficient Drew Brees get back into the playoffs. They carried this momentum forward into this season and continue to make moves in an attempt to maximise the chances of getting Brees another Super Bowl in the time the veteran quarterback has left. Their offence was truly terrifying for a lot of the season, and even when it cooled off they still found ways to win and finished with only three losses all season. In securing the first seed they ensured that they got to play with their impressive home field advantage. They currently rank fourth of the elite offences through the season, and if there is a weakness in the offence it is the talent behind Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, although Mark Ingram did also run the ball effectively in the games he played, but the creativity of Sean Payton and Drew Brees has been more than enough to carry them through.

This week they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles and the supposed playoff mojo of Nick Foles. There is not a large enough sample size to declare that Foles is especially effective in the playoffs, but he has certainly done brilliantly for a backup over last season and this. Still, we shouldn’t forget how effective the Eagles defensive line was against the Chicago Bears last week. Still, the Saints at home are a different prospect and Fletcher Cox and the rest of the defence will need to get pressure up the middle to disrupt Brees. It is possible as the Cowboys demonstrated earlier this season, but right now the Saints are my tip for the Super Bowl. Brees may have thrown for under four thousand yards for the first time in fourteen years, but he also has the highest completion percentage of his career and the lowest number of interceptions. The route to the Super Bowl runs through New Orleans and I don’t see the Eagles disrupting that this week, although of course all things are possible.

Divisional Picks & Wildcard Wrap-up!

09 Wednesday Jan 2019

Posted by in Dan's Thoughts, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , ,

We head to the Divisional games this week which is always an exciting time as those with Wildcard byes get back into the mix. Quicker roundup from me this week, as I’m a) late, and b) short on time!

So picks-wise, I was 1-3, which I’m not happy with, although the one I did get was pretty convincing (despite a late charge from the Ravens!). That being said, there were a couple of pretty close ones. The Bears will feel really disappointed about the end of their game, and subsequently their season, which finished with a kick that rebounded off not just one, but two posts – a kick which would have seen them go on to face the Rams this weekend.

Go back and have a look at the Bears mascot’s reaction to the missed kick if you haven’t already!

I heard an interesting fact over the weekend: Since 2013, no team who has played in Wildcard week has made it to the Super Bowl. Especially interesting as between 2002 and 2012, there were 9 wildcard week teams who made it to the big game.

And so with that, it’s onto my divisional picks, and we’ll start with Saturday evening’s AFC clash between the Colts (6) and Chiefs (1). Indianapolis are looking good and were absolutely dominant against the Texans last weekend. That being said, the Chiefs are 1st seed for a reason and they’ve been equally impressive. Believe it or not though, as good as the Kansas Offence has been this year (ranked 1st in the league), their defence ranks at 31st! I think they’re going to struggle this year, and I’m going to make a big call for the Indianapolis Colts to take this week’s game and head to the Conference championships.

Early Sunday morning will see the Rams (2) back in action as they host the Cowboys (4) in what I think will be the game of the weekend, and one I might even try to stay up and watch live. This genuinely could go either way, for me. Form means a lot when it comes to this stage of the year, and while the Cowboys are definitely the form team of the tie, the Rams were patchy towards the back end of the year after a fantastic start. As much as it pains me to say it (see my bet update below!!) but I think the Dallas Cowboys will be moving on.

Onto Sunday evening, and we’ve got the Chargers (5) travelling to Foxborough to face the Patriots (2). I like the Chargers a lot, and I think they definitely could have what it takes to take the game. I’m hesitant to do this as I feel I’m doing the typical ‘English’ thing and backing the underdogs in every game so far, but I am going to go with the LA Chargers for the win.

That stops here though I’m afraid. The Saints (1) face the Eagles (6) in the final game of the weekend, which I think is going to be the end of Nick Foles’ playoff run. The Saints have looked great all year, and I think they’re pretty much a shoe in here to get into the Conference game, so I’m picking the New Orleans Saints.

If my picks are all correct (and lets be honest, they won’t be!), that’ll give us Colts/Chargers and Cowboys/Saints Conference games, which would be pretty good… although at this stage, there’s no bad sounding games.

Finally, it’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for – my bet update:

I should really be cashing out as I don’t think they’re going to win this weekend, but for your entertainment, dear reader, I’ll keep it there. By the way, you owe me a fiver.

Who are your picks this week? Do you think I’m wrong in picking the lower ranked team in 3 of the 4 games this weekend? Drop me a line on Twitter and lets have a chat!

Until next time…

@TWFDan

The Disappointed Twenty: AFC Edition

02 Wednesday Jan 2019

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

It is time to say our sad farewells to the teams that have already gone their separate ways having failed to reach the playoffs. In a bid to make this more manageable to both read and write I will be covering the AFC today and the NFC tomorrow.

Before I begin there is one universal bit of comfort that any fan of the following teams should take, namely that in the NFL a franchise really can turnaround in an off-season, although there are some situations that may take a couple of off-seasons to sort out but even then a big improvement could be in the offing in September.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had a very up and down season that saw a 3-0 start falter and slip to 7-9 record. This has cost Adam Gase his job and it feels like the Dolphins will spend the off-season remaking the roster again and trying to find a franchise quarterback. There were questions raised before the season about trading away some of their best players to address issues in the locker room, but it was a lack of consistency and an utter failure on the road that cost this team. The Dolphins won their first road game against the Jets and failed to win another all year. The season highlight will undoubtedly be the last second hook and ladder play to beat the New England Patriots but once again the Dolphins couldn’t seriously challenge in the AFC East. My concern is that the roster and front office is as much to blame, if not more, than the coaches and until they build a team round a quarterback who can remain healthy for the whole season then there is only so much success they can have. They also rank twenty-seventh in the league for cap space next year and so there is not a lot of room to do much in free agency with the way the team is currently constructed.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills had a tough season this year as they traded away a number of assets to move up in the draft to get their quarterback of the future and whilst this did not affect the defence too badly as it finished second in the league by DVOA, the offence really suffered. The good news regarding Josh Allen was that he proved that he could be effective on the ground in the NFL, but he will need better players around him and to develop as a passer if the Bills are to get back to the playoffs. It will help that there is some stability as GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott are staying in place, and this team played hard for McDermott all year, but the offence will have to improve if they are to get where they want to go. The good news is that they have the third most free cap space next year so they have room to manoeuvre.

New York Jets

Having failed to get into the playoffs for three seasons and only going 4-12 this year the Jets let go of head coach Todd Bowles. I can understand that the franchise felt they needed a new voice, but Bowles was not given a huge amount to work with over the last couple of seasons and the Jets always seemed to play hard for him. The good news is that Sam Darnold is a promising young quarterback, but once again he will need to have the infrastructure placed around him to enable success. The worry will be that the defence also needs work as it only finished twenty-first in the league by DVOA despite Bowles’ pedigree as a defensive mind. At least they will have cap room to work with as they are second only to the Colts in cap space next year, but free-agency success doesn’t always translate onto the field as this franchise has learned only a few seasons ago.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers just missed out on the playoffs and will be kicking themselves about losses to the Broncos and Raiders. However, there was more than a little drama surrounding the team this season and to an outsider it seems that sorting this out may help the on field performance. Part of this should be achieved by the departure in free-agency of Le’Veon Bell, and certainly James Conner was an able and cheaper alternative at running back. In truth there doesn’t need to be big changes as there is an awful lot of talent on this team, who finished sixth on offence and thirteenth on defence by DVOA. I have no doubt the Steelers will be competitive next year and before we say there is too much wrong, with a now competitive Browns franchise the AFC North was one of the tougher divisions in the league this season. Speaking of which…

Cleveland Browns

I billed this post as the disappointed ten, and yes the Browns would prefer to be in the playoffs, but this is the first time since 2010 that the Browns have not been bottom of the division (and yes the Bengals were bottom that season too) and there are definitely things that should give the fans in Cleveland hope. For the first time since the new franchise was founded it looks as if the Browns have got a franchise quarterback and a five and three finish suggests that if the Browns can nail the coaching staff hire this off-season they should be competitive next year. There is plenty of young talent on the roster already and GM John Dorsey has a proven track record of success, whilst the Browns have the fourth most cap space next season. I’m happy for the long suffering fans of Cleveland but it does not make the picture look any better for the Bengals.

Cincinnati Bengals

All teams face injuries and there are plenty of teams who either had more, or had them more clustered, but the offence particularly suffered this season and when the defence didn’t really shape up until the last couple of weeks after Marvin Lewis took control then it’s not surprising that the season sputtered to a halt. The Lewis era is finally over in Cincinnati and I do not forget how much work he had to put in to make the franchise credible and not the laughing stock of the league but how this group moves on is the big question for next season. It is not implausible for the team to bounce back in the off-season, but they will need to be setup to improve and that really all does depend on the coaching staff as there is not much cap room to improve and Mike Brown seems to very much believe in incremental progress. There are a lot of unknowns right now and so us Bengals fans will just have to hope that the next hire is a good one.

Tennessee Titans

For all that I couldn’t get a handle on them for picking purposes, the Titans went 9-7 despite the injuries to quarterback Marcus Mariota and if he can get the nerve issue in his throwing arm to settle down in the off-season then there is no reason why the Titans can’t compete again next season. For all his accolades as a player, Mike Vrabel was a rookie head coach with limited experience as the man calling the shots and he made a winning start in his first year of coaching, which bodes well for the future. The AFC South could be very competitive next season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars had a nightmare season, falling to 5-11 after getting to the conference championship game the year before. It appears that GM David Caldwell and head coach Doug Marone are coming back on Tom Coughlin’s say so but there are real problems here. They have no franchise quarterback and the running back they took ahead of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes has struggled this year and there are reports that he’s been a problem in the locker room. They are also currently over the cap for next season and even if they cut Blake Bortles, $16.5 of his $21 million dollar cap hit would remain as dead money. For all that they have assembled a good defence, they desperately need a functioning solution at quarterback and better players on offence and who knows if they can put that together in the off-season. There may be trouble ahead for the Jaguars next season as a difficult off-season looms.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos could not sustain a challenge to get to the playoffs and ultimately fell to 6-10. The Broncos never really took off under Vance Joseph and with their vaunted defence slipping and Case Keenum not bringing the form he showed with the Vikings last season to the party this year, it feels like there is a lot up in the air this off-season. I don’t know how long it might take for John Elway to feel pressure, but his drafts have not been stellar and his only real success in finding a quarterback was signing Peyton Manning and even then, Manning was a shell of himself when they actually won the Super Bowl. Their cap situation is not a disaster, but they need to get the coaching hire right and nail a draft if they want to compete with the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West, which looks like it will be no easier next season.

Oakland Raiders

The best thing that can be said for the Raiders is that they have a lot of draft capital, but after a tumultuous campaign that saw them go 4-12, the Raiders head into the off-season with nowhere to play their home games next season and questions all over the roster. They have just hired Mike Mayock to be their GM, but whilst he has been a great analyst for ESPN, it is a different job evaluating talent when there are wins on the line and make no mistake it will be Jon Gruden calling the shots. A lot will depend on whether this new pairing can hit the ground running, but with the roster where it is and where to play up in the air, it’s hard to sit here and predict how the Raiders will go next year. Let’s just say it would not exactly be a shock if they struggle again…

Guest Post: How Things Have Changed

31 Monday Dec 2018

Posted by in Dan's Dad's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

So at the end of the season with the year about to end, it feels like looking back is an appropriate thing to do and I have a special post I have been sitting. Having been setting us trivia question for two seasons Dan’s Dad is now stepping up to take a crack at this blogging lark, and whilst I started this blog over four and a half years ago with a post called Why American Football? so Dan’s Dad takes a look at his own voyage of NFL discovery, which might feature a couple of familiar stops along the way.

I hope you enjoy!

Why do any of us follow a sporting team? Why do we take on the joys and frustrations, pain even, that come with being part of the club? It’s hard to say. Being part of a group with shared interests is generally a positive thing but back in the 70’s when I first encountered it the NFL was a very much minority interest sport. It has taken decades of the enthusiasm of many to put it where it currently is in the UK. Without the growing awareness, support and dedication of the fans it could easily have died on the vine, but look at it now and without any doubt TV, so often a vilified intrusion, has been a major factor.

Running alongside the BBC’s Grandstand (Frank Bough) was ITV’s World of sport on a Saturday afternoon and this is where I became infected with the NFL bug. It ran from 1965 to 1985 (with Dickie Davies the best known of its presenters) and was possibly best remembered for horse racing and wrestling but it did allow the very occasional sortie into ‘Gridiron’ football. Admittedly this was limited to about one hour of highlights from the previous week’s Super Bowl and to many this was an alien world of men in padded suits and a scoring system of almost impenetrable complexity. The concept of ‘downs’ and playing a game in ten yard chunks was new and to a 60s and 70s US-infatuated Britain became irresistible for many. But limited coverage became a taster and a trial to see if a bigger offering would be justified. We now know that it certainly was.

I was lucky enough to take a trip to the US in 1971 where my first hand awareness was triggered. From that trip I returned with, sorry for this Dan, a replica Jets shirt and an appreciation of someone called Joe Namath who was one of the stars of the day and still a figure due considerable respect. I was twelve, and to a twelve-year-old just being in the States was huge. Do I follow the Jets now? No, but more of that to come.

By 1982 Channel 4 started showing weekly highlights and that, for me was the match that lit the fuse on the game in the UK to an ever widening audience. By the time that the Bears defeated the Patriots in Super Bowl XX the game was firmly established with no fewer than four million tuning in for that game.

It wasn’t just a spectator sport either and many would argue that crowd control issues in other sports compared to a very safe environment offered by the NFL sport drew audiences. There was also a growth in the number of local teams which culminated in the creation of the UKAFA in 1985 and when Budweiser announced a £300,000 fund to grow the sport in the UK in 1986 when the Leicester Falcons and the Birmingham Bulls played to determine which team would be Britain’s inaugural entry into European competition. The Bulls came out on top in a 32–18 victory.

1986 also saw the first ever official NFL game at Wembley between the Chicago Bears and the Dallas Cowboys. This recognised the growth of the game, its ethos and the personalities it brought with it. The players were the celebrities and none bigger, literally, than William Perry also known as The Fridge. 6ft 3 and 350 lbs Perry was the immovable object both for the Bears, drafted in 1985 and latterly played at the Eagles but had the name that everyone knew. He will forever be remembered as part of the Bears team which took on the Cowboys in the first official NFL game at Wembley.

Channel 4 ceased broadcasts in 1997 but returned in a cut down format in 2010 as a free-to-air offering against Sky whose coverage has become the ‘go to’ product in the view of many.

When Sky TV came to the table and brought their extensive coverage of sport to UK NFL viewers was, for me, an enormous leap in the sport’s fortunes, bigger than that which Channel 4 gave it. I have a downer on turning free to air into pay-to-view and feel that in one way or another football, cricket, golf and F1 in particular have suffered, or sometimes the genuine fans of these sports have been disadvantaged. However, while the above sports were ripe for modernisation, maybe plundering is another word, and Sky could offer that, NFL was on the cusp of becoming mainstream.

Where various channels had ‘dabbled’ and Chanel 4 was largely a highlights offering, the real demand was for live games and Sky could offer that in abundance. With regularly five or more live games (albeit in the middle of the night all too often) and a rolling highlights offering the fan is well served. Include the benefits of Game Pass and the package is almost complete.

The only ‘next step’ is for fully live games and thanks to the advances over the years and the growing, and well supported, International Series the UK has to be approaching its own franchise.

I was lucky to get the opportunity to see a live game during a business trip to Minneapolis in 2003. Even fifteen years later the whole event remains memorable. After five wins the Vikings hosted the Broncos at the Hubert Humphrey winning 28-20 thanks, in part to a majestic lateral from Randy Moss to Moe Williams on the last play of the first half rivalling the double lateral by the Dolphins in Week 14!

It was interesting to see, in the flesh, everything that happens not just what the TV chooses to show. The game is almost choreographed as the various teams switch in and out seamlessly but it’s when there is a game break or a review that you see the complexity of the game.

In the same way I remember my first soccer game, West Bromwich Albion at Leicester, in the days where the Police would watch the game not the crowd. It is so often the first team you see that becomes ‘your team’ and thick or thin (Dan and Gee will both recognise this) they are that for life. So I am a Viking, a Purple People Eater.

The opportunity came along to visit the US again in 2008. We had seen Wembley games but Dan and I managed to see the Vikings at the Bears and the following weekend the Dolphins hosting the Bills. We had to miss that year’s Wembley game to do it but it was worth it. For the record the Bears won 48-41 while the Dolphins won 25-16. While Wembley was special, doing it in the US was another level. Now it would not, probably, be overly unusual to find Brits going to games over there but back then the US fans we met were blown away that a couple of Brits were doing a road trip. That shows how the whole game has evolved here, and how that has shrunk the world and I can only see that continuing.

Look at the development of new arenas in the US. Each new one seems to be grander that the one before, bigger, better facilities – it won’t end but while the UK is keen to get more that also serves the US. It’s not global domination they want, but expanding influence is financially advantageous all round.

With an ever growing opportunity for blogs, podcasts, websites, TV including the BBC and other ways for the fan base to get their NFL fix it is almost inconceivable that the UK will not have its own franchise within ‘a handful’ of seasons. The expansion of the International series was clearly a good way of proving that the UK could support one and the results seem most positive. So advanced are the plans that we also have stadia being built as multi-sport venues even enabling the swapping out of a pitch to suit the next game – and moving to something that size is akin to a new sport being launched. So if the next move for a pitch happens to be about 3500 miles so be it. That would be some Field Goal.

As the Season Dims

27 Thursday Dec 2018

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Here we are, Christmas is done, the year soon will be and so will the NFL regular season. We have one more round of games left and then we’ll wave goodbye to the disappointed twenty and focus in on the post season games.

So what important changes did we get the weekend before Christmas? Well, the New England Patriots claimed their tenth straight AFC East title with a win over the Buffalo Bills but they didn’t exactly convince. The Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East with a win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints beat the Pittsburgh Steelers to secure home field advantage through the playoffs. That result also places the Steelers playoff hopes in jeopardy as they have to beat the Bengals (probably not that hard) this weekend and hope that either the Ravens lose to the Browns (distinctly possible) or that there is a tie between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans. There are other permutations involving a tie with the Bengals and a Ravens’ loss but all the Steelers control is their result against the Bengals. If you look back at the season it’s hard to be too upset about a three-point loss to the Saints in New Orleans, and it will be the losses to the Broncos and Raiders that will haunt the Steelers if they do miss the playoffs. Meanwhile the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts face a winner gets in week seventeen games, which is why that will be final game on Sunday.

Over in the NFC, five teams have secured their playoff berths and the only question left is whether the Philadelphia Eagles can complete their remarkable late season surge by beating Washington and hoping that the Bears can beat the Vikings. There is a route where the Bears could end up facing the Vikings in the Wildcard round so it is likely that the Bears will not pulling out all of their offensive tricks in this Sunday’s game, but apart from that it will be each team for itself and the Eagles hoping for the best. There are even whispers that Nick Foles might be the better quarterback but given his age compared to Carson Wentz it’s hard to see him not moving on in the offseason unless he keeps producing the miraculous.

Stepping away from the playoff picture for a moment, even if I didn’t actually pick it to happen it did not surprise me that the Oakland Raiders won what looks to be their last game in Oakland. After being sued by the city, the Raiders are not planning to play their final year in Oakland before their new Las Vegas stadium is ready and there is some talk of them playing in London for the 2019 season. It seems doubtful that with the logistical challenges of placing a team in London, that the Raiders would try it for a solitary year but it seems that the recent NFL franchise movement has not exactly been a flying success so far and it’s hard to see the Raiders bucking the trend. The now LA Chargers are playing in a small capacity venue and are routinely outnumbered by road fans despite having an 11-4 record. The LA Rams are doing better thanks to their previous links to the city, but it is still not exactly unusual for the well supported teams in the NFL to have sizable contingents present for games. At least Stan Kroenke will own the mega-campus he’s building for the Rams and the NFL, but I do wonder about the long term viability of the Chargers, who will be tenants in the Rams’ facility. The Raiders should make money in Las Vegas given the combination of locals who have already take their NHL team to heart and who could embrace their new football team, and the travelling fans who will leap at the chance to go to Vegas to see their team. How difficult an environment this will make for visiting fans remain to be seen, and there are an important couple of drafts coming for Jon Gruden and whoever is hired to execute his plan as the new GM. However, with no home for next season, a GM to appoint and a vital draft coming it feels like there is too much uncertainty for everything to come good even if some thrive in chaos and for those who are choosing to stick with the Raiders, they will be hoping that Gruden is such a person. It does feel like there are a lot of things that could potentially go wrong for the Raiders in the next couple of years.

Getting back to the week seventeen slate, it seems to make sense to focus on the battle for the playoffs and what is left of this season before worrying too much about the offseason. It is likely to be the games I’ve already mentioned that will be the ones worth watching. This last week features divisional matchups exclusively, which I’m sure the NFL will hope ensures competitive games (even amongst teams who have nothing to play for) but there are careers and jobs on the line as there are every week.

We haven’t even reached the end of the season and there are already stories of the Packers interviewing potential coaches and Matt Patricia is apparently ‘pretty confident’ that his job with the Lions is safe. There is apparently a press conference scheduled for Monday for Marvin Lewis but I have long since given up speculating on how to make sense of the Bengals coaching situation. I’m just hoping the long term plan does not involve Hue Jackson being made head coach, but it is a genuine possibility that worries me a little as I’d favour someone from outside of the central brain trust to freshen things up, although I might take current offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. We can cover all of this and more next week as I write up the disappointed twenty, but for now let’s enjoy the spectacle of those fighting to make the playoffs, and for those of whose team’s aren’t going to make it, as ever there is always next year so let’s grab our last chance to watch them this season.