Tag Archives: Cleveland Browns

AAF: Joe Thomas

20 Sunday Nov 2016

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , ,

So this week’s amateur adventure in film was inspired by the block ‘em up podcast where Geoff and Duke selected Joe Thomas as their all NFL left tackle through the first half of the season, and then I watched him get beat for a couple of key plays in that week’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens. There is a thin line between success and failure and so having spotted those plays last week, I wanted to take a closer look at Thomas for the whole game.

I have watched Thomas before, and the thing that struck me then was his balance, and whilst I’m not expert on line play, he always seemed to be in control. For most of the game in Baltimore, Thomas was indeed in control. He is not the kind of lineman that is constantly flattening opposing players in the run game, but he seals his player up very effective in the run game, and he still looks balanced in the pass game.

It is interesting to me that the Browns seem to use run style blocking on passing plays without any play-action motion from quarterback quite a lot, and I don’t remember seeing that from other teams before. Perhaps I should be paying more attention.

However, for most of the game Joe Thomas seemed in control of his man whilst pass blocking, occasionally getting help from left guard Spencer Drango, but for most of the time he was asked to matchup man to man and usually he was up to the job.

The problem seemed to come however when he was matched up against Terrell Suggs, as unlike when blocking someone like Za’Darious Smith, there were multiple occasions when Suggs was able to get round Thomas and affect the play. There were two occasions where this really made the Browns pay.

In the third quarter Suggs was able to get round Thomas and get a piece of Josh McCown’s arm as he threw the ball and his pass was intercepted.

In the fourth quarter, getting round Thomas again he was able to knock the ball out of McCown’s hand and recover the football.

These were the major plays, but there were a couple more where Suggs was able to get round Thomas but couldn’t make the play. On all of these plays, some combination of Suggs speed and angle meant that Thomas was reaching and not able to stay in front of Suggs. Let’s not forget that Terrell Suggs has been an effective pass rusher and quality player so it should not surprise that he represented the major challenge that Thomas would face in this game.

For the majority of the game though, Thomas looked good, but such are the margins in the NFL, and particularly for a tackle, that it only takes perhaps a handful of plays that are not quite right for your quarterback to have a bad day. What I don’t know, is the line calls, whether the ball should have been out of the quarterback’s hand earlier. From the rest of his play you wouldn’t say that Thomas is a declining player, and I’m certainly not going to disagree with NFL lineman when they say that Thomas is as good as anyone in the league. However, on a short week as part of a bad team, a handful of eventful plays can catch the eye, and certainly Joe Thomas deserves to have played on better teams than he has, but the Browns show signs they could take real steps if they stick with the plan, and I don’t think Joe Thomas is going anywhere in the near future.

The End of Streaks

29 Thursday Sep 2016

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

It was a strange week three that saw many a game going differently to how people expected, and saw both Dan and I get murdered on our picks.

I wrote before making my picks last week that I expected more teams to get their first loss or win than continue their streaks, but it seems I picked all of the wrong ones and even in the games where I made the right choice, those choices were hardly convincing.

  • One of the unbeaten Texans and Patriots had to lose their first game, but whilst I acknowledged that Bill Belichick could win this game, I was not expecting the Patriots to manage a 27-0 win over the Texans.
  • The Cardinals went to Buffalo and lost, giving them a losing record and granting the Bills their first win of the season and resulting in the usual Rex Ryan bravado about facing the Patriots this week.
  • The Broncos went to 3-0 with an impressive win in Cincinnati where the Bengals defence stacked the box and dared Trevor Siemian to win the game with his arm, which he promptly did.
  • Even when I picked the Dolphins to beat the winless Browns in Miami and get their first win of the season, they needed overtime to do it and were nowhere near the ten point lead I needed for my pick to come through.
  • I expected the Viking to keep the game close against the Panthers, but instead ran out with a victory to remain unbeaten despite their injury troubles.
  • I didn’t see Washington beating a Giants team that were off to a great start, and yet they managed it whilst Odell Beckham grabbed headlines with another emotional outburst. This time the talented receiver lost a fight to a field goal net on the Giant’s side-line.
  • The Ravens went down to Jacksonville to face a desperate Jaguars team who were not desperate enough to avoid going 0-3, whilst the Ravens have the quietest unbeaten record in the league.
  • The Colts were one of only three games featuring a 2-0 or 0-2 record that I picked correctly, when they managed to get a win over the visiting Chargers who now have a perfect record of played three, lost three starters for the season to injury.
  • The Eagles put pay to the Steelers unbeaten record and kept their own, making the hype surrounding Carson Wentz even greater. I am so impressed with the Eagles coaching staff and the turnaround they have made so far, I’m really looking forward to seeing how this team develop over the rest of the season.
  • The Bears continued to lose, giving me my only other totally correct pick of week two where I got it right and the game went how I expected.
  • Finally, I was tempted into picking the Falcons because of an extra half point the Saints were giving up, but it turns out that the Falcons didn’t need these points as they ran out easy winners in a game of a lot of points.

Now, the wonderful thing about the NFL is that it is doing a sterling job of giving us talking points and excitement over the weekends, but boy is it making predicting what is going to happen difficult.

Still it is still early, and even though I will be writing my quarter poll summary in a couple of weeks, there are very few teams that should be truly despondent. However, whilst the Cleveland Browns were never likely to be looking for anything other than progress, and to their credit they are playing tough for the Hue Jackson in his first year, the Bears, Saints, and Jaguars are all in trouble. Only three teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3 since 1990 when the playoff format was expanded to its current format. The Bears were expected to be rebuilding this year even if the injuries have made things worse than I was expecting, but the Jaguars were hoping to make the next step and push for the playoffs whilst the Saints have a Super Bowl winning quarterback who they have failed to surround with enough talent to push as far as they would expect.

The Jaguars are a particular disappointment as they head over to London to host the Colts this week, and already people are wondering if the London game is going to cost another head coach his job. Despite the warm feelings that everyone who has ever dealt with Gus Bradley seems to have, it is hard to see the Jaguars owner putting up with these results for much longer, and the Jaguars will need to turn things round quickly if Bradley is to keep his job past the end of the season.

And continuing the theme of disappointment, the big news of the last twenty-four hours is that JJ Watt has been placed on injured reserve as he having more problems with his back, and could possibly be gone for the season. I’ll write a little more about this over the weekend as I was already going through the coaching tape of Watt vs the Patriots, but hopefully he can make it all the way back as he is one of my favourite players to watch, but back injuries are hard ones to return from and people who’ve had such problems often say that they never felt the same.

The week five games look to offer plenty of excitement and intrigue, but already the attrition has really started to affect some teams, and it is an all too prescient reminder of how tough a game American Football is. I never want to see a player injured, but I will confess that part of me is curious to see what the Patriots would do if they were forced to play Julian Edelman as their quarterback.

Still, it is time to start looking at this week’s games, starting with tonight’s game that pits Dan’s Dolphins on the road against my beloved Bengals.

Our records are nothing to shout home about, particularly after our disastrous previous week, but I did manage to maintain my three point lead:

Gee:      Week 3   5-11                     Overall   21-27
Dan:       Week 3   5-11                     Overall   18-30

Dolphins @ Bengals (-6.5)

The Bengals lost their first home game of the season, in what has been a tricky open to the season, but if they can get back to 2-2 they can still hope to make a push for the playoffs. It appears that Tyler Eifert is not going to make it back for the game, but Vontaze Burfict comes off suspension and is likely to help the Bengals defence straight away. I think the Browns are going to give teams a tough game at the moment so I’m not reading too much into last week’s result for the Dolphins, but an overtime game before a short week road game is not the best prep, and I’m hopeful that the Bengals can win and hopefully find some rhythm on offence. For one game only I’m borrowing from Dan and picking blindly based on my fandom.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Everybody has a plan until you hit them in the mouth

22 Thursday Sep 2016

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I won’t go into the reasons why me usual routine has been turned around this week, but it does remind of the various quotes regarding what happens to plans when they run into reality.

The NFL is a very real reminder of this, with various teams already facing very different situations than they expected. Of course, for the Vikings the plan didn’t even survive the pre-season, with Teddy Bridgewater going down with his horrible knee injury in practice. This not only affected the Vikings, but Carson Wentz is now starting and surprising everyone with the quality of his play for the Eagles after Philidelphia traded the expected starter Sam Bradford to the Vikings. Both teams are now 2-0, with Bradford surprising everyone with his performance against Green Bay on Sunday as the Vikings eked out a win despite losing Adrian Peterson to a torn meniscus that could keep him out until the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Browns who traded down with the Eagles, allowing the team from Philadelphia to select Wentz are facing questions about what they didn’t like about the quarterback. If the Browns are the ones that are getting asked the questions now having lost two starting quarterbacks in the first two weeks, there could be some awkward questions for the Rams who picked Jared Goff instead of Wentz. With Goff failing to even dress in week one, and the offence still not having scored a touchdown this season, you can see people beginning to wonder about the decision even if the questioning does seem to have been delayed by the win the Rams ground out against the Seahawks on Sunday.

These days everybody wants to declare the winners and losers as soon as possible, despite the fact things are often far more complex than they seen. Planning is important, but rarely do even the most basic plans survive when you put them into action.

The thing we need in life to counter this is adaptability and resilience. The mental toughness to take what is thrown at you is often the difference between trying to do something, and the perseverance to make it a success.

The actual truth is that we don’t know how either Goff or Wentz’s actual careers will go, two games of their rookie season is simply not a big enough sample size, and the thing I like about the way the Rams holding out Goff is that if he’s not ready he shouldn’t just be thrown in. Because we picked him first is a really bad reason to start a quarterback. If you have a player you hope will play of a decade, it doesn’t make sense to play them early to appease the matter of winning now, or at least it doesn’t if there is a real risk that you could hurt the development of the player.

Sometimes circumstances don’t allow for this. Tonight the New England Patriots will be starting rookie Jacoby Brissett thanks to a combination of Tom Brady’s four game suspension and Jimmy Garopollo spraining his throwing shoulder during last week’s win against the Miami Dolphins. I am looking forward to seeing how Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick scheme an offence in only three days practice for a third round draft pick who was their third string quarterback going into the season.

For some this would be too much, and excuse for a team to lose a game, but somehow I think that at least part of the coaches will be relishing the challenge.

You trust that he’ll get good coaching but it’s a hell of a task and there simply could be not enough time, which leads me to tonight’s pick:

Texans @ Patriots (-0.5)

It turns out that apart from lots of points, the other thing that will get me to pick against the Patriots is being down to their third string quarterback with only three days to prepare. I’m not saying that the Patriots won’t win tonight, but it is a big ask and not one I’m prepared to pick as the most likely to happen. Watch Bill Belichick prove me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:           Texans
Dan’s Pick:           Texans

The Start of the Offseason, and Wildcard Weekend

08 Friday Jan 2016

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , ,

I approach this weekend with both excitement and trepidation. I have maintained from the start of pre-season that it was a playoff win or bust for the Bengals, and so of course they are playing the old enemy ten years after the hopes of Bengaldom were so cruelly dashed by the injury to Carson Palmer’s knee in their infamous 2005 playoff loss to the Steelers. I am not here to pillory the Steelers, but for those who know how badly I will take a loss this weekend, be assured that I will have people to watch over me.

The NFL season has this strange two tier effect in that for twenty teams the season is done, and so you get the so called Black Monday firings, although these seem to be moving into Sunday these days. Yet for twelve teams the season continues, but now the teams who have fired are looking for new head coaches, and there are always tensions as they try to find a gap to interview a coordinator from a playoff bound team to be their head coach. The system has existed for years, and I’m sure there are reasons that it cannot be altered, but it does feel like it would make more sense to get the season done with before signings could happen. I am sure that Hue Jackson is focussed on the game plan for Saturday’s game, but his upcoming interview with the Cleveland Browns has to be some kind of distraction.

Speaking of which, the Browns have been very quick out of the gate in terms of not only firing their head coach and GM, but also in hiring new people. There has been a fair bit of scepticism about the internal promotion of Sashi Brown to executive vice president of football operations and the hiring of Paul DePodesta, a baseball analytics executive from the New York Mets who was part of the famed Oakland Athletics “Monebyball” approach based on sabermetrics. I have some sympathy with the worry that with everyone seeming to report in to Jimmy Haslam that there might be problems with leadership, but I am cautiously optimistic about this for one simple reason. I have spent a lot of this year referring to the Browns as a mess, and they have done a bad job of constructing their roster, yet with these moves the team are clearly moving in the direction of analytics as being their approach. Only time will tell if they will stick to this path, and if they can make it work, but for the first time in a while it is actually possible to point to a plan in Cleveland. I am really hoping that plan is does not include Hue Jackson as it is bad enough that the Bengals are likely losing him from the team, without having to face him twice a year. Still it is early days, but I am very curious to see how things progress in Cleveland and if this new approach can take hold. And who know, if they are interested in analytics and new thinking, perhaps Chip Kelly will be getting a call.

If the Browns acted quickly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers caught Dan and I off guard by waiting until Wednesday night, Thursday morning UK time, after we had recorded the podcast to announce the firing of Lovie Smith. It appears that part of this decision might be a reaction to the Dolphins enquiring about their offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who is now seen as a strong candidate to become head coach. This makes sense in that having just drafted your franchise quarterback, you wouldn’t want to make him learn a new system in his second year. The other likely factor is that not only has Lovie Smith only won eight games during his two years in charge, but the defence did not look like it was progressing and that is his side of the ball.

Perhaps the most confusing of all the team moves was not a firing, but the extension of both Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson. It seems like all year we have heard about friction between head coach Pagano and his GM, whilst the team’s inability to protect the quarterback sunk them in a very winnable division. That Pagano was able to beat the Tennesse Titans with street free agent quarterbacks Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley only having a week’s practice indicates that Pagano perhaps deserver to be back, but given the questions many people, including myself, have about the approach Grigson has taken to free agency and the draft, it is surprising that he was retained. However, they are now tied together by contract for another four year so we will just have to see what the plan is in the offseason and if they can turn things around.

The offseason will continue to turn with or without me, so let’s take a look at the weekend games.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans

In the first of the Saturday games, the 11-5 Chiefs travel to face the 9-7 Texans, and they are somewhat similar teams. Both had bad starts to the season, strong defences, game managing quarterbacks, and a very high quality receiver. Somehow JJ Watt manage to amass 17.5 sacks despite playing with a broken hand for part of the season, whist the Chiefs defence found itself once the secondary solidified, and rookie corner Marcus Peters jointly leads the league in interceptions.

I am really looking forward to this game as I think there will be a lot of good defence on display, and both head coaches have done good jobs in keeping their team together through the bad starts and getting their teams to the playoffs. However, the Chiefs are currently on a ten game winning streak and finished the season ranked the fifth team overall by DVOA according to Football Outsiders, moving up to second in their weighted DVOA stat which emphasises recent performance more. I’m enjoying not having to predict games, but I think the Chiefs will likely win a tight bruising game to start the weekend.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

The big story of the Bengals coming into this game is that Andy Dalton is unlikely to play, as always seemed to be the case once he fractured his thumb playing the Steelers four weeks ago. The Bengals have what is widely regarded as one of the most well rounded rosters in the league, and certainly they are in better shape than they were coming out of the regular season. However, there is huge amount of press focus being place on Marvin Lewis and his zero playoff wins, and people do think the Bengals can win. The defence is good, and narrowly missed out on allowing the least amount of points in the league to the Seahawks whilst still setting a franchise record. The skill position players are still all available, but there is definitely a drop in play at quarterback, although he is making all the right noises and doesn’t so much look phased, as like a good young quarterback with only three starts.

The problem for me in trying to be objective about this game is that I am unreasonably nervous. The players are focussed on themselves, and very few have been here for all of the recent string of playoff losses. I think they will be isolating themselves from the city’s angst, but the fact of the matter is the crowd will be worried as they carry twenty-five years without a playoff win into the game. And of course it had to be the Steelers…

They have had injury problems, and a defence that can be patchy, but they are a tough scrappy team with one of the scariest receiver groups in the game. The Steelers come into the game with a solid win against the Bengals four weeks ago, and in fact Marvin Lewis is only 5-13 against the Steelers with four of those wins coming in Pittsburgh. I will be able to focus more on the Steelers when they make it through this game (I have no idea at this point if I’m trying to jinx them, or prepare myself for if they Bengals do lose) but for now let’s just say I want to get the game over with and no what the story of the offseason is going to be. I desperately want Marvin Lewis to get a playoff win as he has done so much to improve the state of the Bengals, and it would be so good if they could get on a run and Andy Dalton could put to the rest his critics as well, but for now, I’m moving on to games that I can think about with less trepidation.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minesota Vikings

The Vikings reward for beating Green Bay last week and winning their division is to host a red hot Seahawks team who finished the season as the top ranked team by DVOA. Another team to struggle early, they had problems holding onto leads, but the defence has found its way again, whilst Russell Wilson’s transition midway through the season into a very effective pocket quarterback despite, or perhaps because of the loss of tight end Jimmy Graham who the Seahawks traded for in the offseason, has made them a frightening proposition.

The Viking on the other hand, have been quietly solid all year as Mike Zimmer has taken them to a division win in only his second year as head coach. The defence is sure tackling, features Zimmer’s double A-gap blitz looks, and has only allowed an opponent to score more than twenty-three points twice all season. Sadly one of these was a game where the Seahawks blew them out 7-38, but they were missing three starters down the spine of their defence. However those starters have returned, and the weather forecast is suggesting it will be an incredibly cold game, which could hamper the suddenly explosive passing game of the Seahawks. However, the problem with this is that Adrian Peterson by his own admission has never adjusted to the very cold temperatures that can occur in Minnesota. Not only that, but whilst the Seahawks’ defence has had their problems this season, stopping the run has not been one of them, and they have been looking formidable once more in recent weeks.

I see this being a close game, but I would imagine the Seahawks are likely to continue on into next week.

Green Bay Packers @ Washington

The Packers have had a strange season thanks to the injury to Jordy Nelson, but are really struggling at the moment with constant shuffling of their offensive line due to injury, a stagnant run game, and receivers that are struggling to get open. Somehow Aaron Rodgers was able to get them into position to draw level with the Vikings at the end of last week’s game, but he is not elevating those around him, and it appears that the season has worn him down.

The Packers visit are travelling to face a Washington team who have one of the league’s better passing attacks at the end of the season. Their defence might not be that great, but frankly Kirk Cousins is the quarterback with the best form, and has put together a remarkable string of stats since the infamous, “You like that?” game.

I have a feeling that with the problems they currently have, and being on the road, that Washington may well win this game. However, with a decent defence, and Aaron Rodgers, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Packers found a way to win.

Thoughts on Linebackers and Safeties

10 Thursday Dec 2015

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , ,

The league is heading into the final quarter with only a number of teams still in the hunt for the playoffs, although things are beginning to settle. Even so, teams that are completely out of the playoff race are still generating plenty of headlines.

The Cleveland Browns on/off dalliance with Johnny Manziel being there starting quarterback only further demonstrates the dysfunction at the top of this franchise. There are rumours flying round of conflict between those who want Manziel to start, and those for whom he has already burned his bridges with. You can see how a coaching staff that will want to be getting hired again next year if they can’t secure their jobs this year, a coaching staff who want to win games, could come into conflict with a front office group who need to know what they have in an their first round pick from two years ago and whether it is time to move on already. The problem is that with the turnover in both coaches and front office staff, it is very hard to establish a culture and go through the process it takes to turn around a franchise in trouble, and very often it seems like when a team is turned into a success, this improvement is built off the back of previous regime’s work. That said, there has been such a carousel at quarterback and staff at the Browns that it is hard to know when things will turn round.

I don’t want to pile on to the poor Browns so I’ll stop using them as an example, but I did want to pick up on a couple of things from listening to the Ross Tucker podcast this week, without turning the column into an advert, and also tie this in with tonight’s exciting game between the Cardinals and the Vikings.

On his usual Wednesday spot, regular guest Andrew Brandt was speaking about why he was a fan of Chip Kelly, and specifically talked about him as an agent of change, and that this was a rare thing in a lot of aspects in coaching. This could be seen as a curious concept given how often we hear about coaching innovations, but it seems that very often what we hear described as innovation is in fact a new wrinkle or a variation on a concept. Spread offences and pass first offences are not a new concept, but the sophistication of modern schemes is, however equally you will hear from retired players that the technique at certain positions is in decline and that this could be due to the reduced amount of time that coaches get to work with their players, particularly in the more physical drills. I don’t want to delve too far into this, but what it did get me thinking about was that if you compare the sophistication with which coaches and management are dealing with the way that a football team is constructed and plays, versus the way the media breaks down the roster then maybe we are missing a trick or two.

There was a great discussion between Ross Tucker and Greg Cosell today about tonight’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings, and the bit that grabbed me was their discussion about Deone Bucannon who Cosell described as a 210 Ibs linebacker, although he’s listed on the Cardinals’ website as safety. Now they were talking about whether this was the future of the position, these what would be traditionally undersized linebackers who could cover and cope in this age of spread defences. One of the reasons I love Cosell is he’ll always state when hasn’t seen something or can’t speak on it, but also how he’ll remained balanced, and he countered Rot Tucker’s question on how much you needed heft at the point of attack these days with the way the league is going by saying that this is not absolutely the case and let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I don’t want to get pick holes with either of them as they both know more about football than me, the podcast can be found here, but it did get me thinking.

Firstly, this weekend I am going back to look at the coaching tape from last week’s Ravens @ Dolphins game as Dan would like me to take a look at Ryan Tannehill’s performance. Next week I think I will take a look at the Cardinal’s use of Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu as I’ve been meaning to look at the Cardinals use of extra DBs in there defence for a while.

Secondly, the conversation about the future got me thinking again about linebacker groups, and something I have thought about before concerning them and the use of specialist safeties. I’ll apologise for bringing things back to the Bengals, but they are the team I watch week in and out, so in this case it easier to demonstrate what I am talking about by using them as an example in discussing the analysis of roster construction and how we talk about building a team.

In the offseason linebacker was one of the areas of concern for the Bengals as they had been banged up last season, had really struggled to defend the run when Rey Maualuga was out injured, plus Vontaze Burfict who had really come into his own was also injured and would be coming of microfracture surgery going into this season. The Bengals approach wasn’t to go out and secure a high price starting linebacker in free agency or draft a linebacker high, but neither was it to fill their roster with a middle linebacker, weak and strong side backers and then backups. Instead they drafted a linebacker, signed AJ Hawk as a free agent and resigned Maualuga. I know some were not sure about this approach, or what they did with the defensive line, but what was clever is that they built themselves a group with a set of complimentary skills and gave themselves depth. They have the ability to rotate their linebackers to have the right players for the job depending on who they are playing. Facing a team who power run up the gut, then that offence is going to have to deal with Rey Maualuga in the A gap, but if you’re facing a spread offence then you can drop into a nickel defence with the extra db, but also with a speedy linebacker like Emmanuel Lamur to help cover those linebackers who cause all those matchup problems.

For me this is an area where teams could innovate, that tweener safety/linebacker that so often was a concern in the draft, could become the new tool to help cover those nightmare tight ends and help deal with spread concepts. However, I’m wary of saying that is will become the new way of doing things. Sure you may have some lighter starters, but with this age of injury and increased difficulty for defences, maybe there is an edge to be found in crafting a linebacker group to have multiple types of player designed to rotate snaps in different amounts depending on the situation. I don’t think the days of the run stuffing middle linebacker are over, but possibly gone are the days when they are the star of the defence and play a lot of snaps, but if the balance in the NFL tips too far towards speed defences, then you can bet your bottom dollar that someone will start running power running games with success.

So I shall look forward to take a close look at the defence of the Cardinals as we go back into my picks competition with Dan, who slipped further behind again last week.

Gee:    Week 13   10-6            Overall   101-91
Dan:    Week 13   8-8              Overall   92-100

Vikings @ Cardinals (-7.5)

This is a really bad spot for the Vikings as they will be missing three starters on defence again this week, and the last thing they really need it so be travelling from Minnesota to Arizona to face a Cardinals team that is going from strength to strength. I would usually expect this to be a closer game, but with the match ups and timing favouring the Cardinals I am going to back them to cover this in a game I’m really looking forward to.

Gee ‘s Pick:   Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

Browns at Bengals, Coaching Tape Madness, and Week 9 Picks

08 Sunday Nov 2015

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I’m attempting a little personal madness this morning as I try to fit three separate things I usually write into one week saving article so here goes.

The Bengals welcomed the Browns to town this Thursday as the battle of Ohio played out in from of a national audience, and it was a dramatic turn around from last year’s game that the Browns won, leaving Andy Dalton with 2.0 passer rating.

On offence the Browns started Johnny Manziel and it feels somewhat strange that he is starting and we’ve had barely a mention of the incident with his girlfriend in their car. We don’t know all the details yet so it is too early to judge, but given that the NFL are investigating what happened, it feels odd for him to be playing in this new world of investigations and Commissioner’s exempt list that we have become so familiar with. On the field he demonstrated both the flaws within the structure of the offence that is the real criticism of his play, and that when plays brake down you get glimpses of the play making ability that tantalise some into thinking that he could make it work. Whilst you wouldn’t say he exactly played badly, the one touchdown drive he had relied heavily on three long plays where he was forced out of the pocket and was able to find a receiver down the field. The problem is that the Bengals adjusted at half time to focus on keeping him in the pocket and the Browns didn’t score another point. The Browns generated a measly two hundred and thirteen yards total offence, unable to run or pass consistently to sustain drives leading to them getting ten less first downs than the Bengals in the game.

Part of the Browns struggle was that despite having two very well known offensive linemen in Alex Mack and Joe Thomas, they really struggled against the Bengals defensive line who were able to get pressure on Manziel consistently even if they only started sacking him in the second half. Watching the line you frequently saw Geno Atkins disrupting plays with penetration and he got himself a sack whilst Carlos Dunlap picked up two. There were also a number of batted passes when Manziel was throwing the ball, as the defence adapted and stiffened to keep the Browns contained all game.

The Bengals offence took advantage of the Browns problems with run defence gaining one hundred and fifty-two yards split between the team leading Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Meanwhile Andy Dalton was quietly efficient in the passing game, throwing for two hundred and thirty-four yards on twenty-one completions from twenty-seven attempts with Tyler Eifert catching all three of his touchdown passes. Eifert has been one of the huge differences to the Bengals this year with the matchup problems he creates and the help he has given in the red zone contributing to this team’s number two ranking on offence by DVOA.

I don’t feel there’s a lot to write about the Browns defence having already mentioned their season long problem with defending the run, but they did manage to get a couple of sacks and actually looked quite good against the pass in this game. However, even when things went well the Browns gave up points in Brown like ways. In the second quarter on the drive where they gave up a touchdown, Randy Starks stuffed Giovani Bernard and immediately gave up a fifteen yard penalty for taunting, and not content with that later on he gave the Bengals a first down and rescued their drive when he was caught offside on a play that should have turned the ball over due to an incompletion.

In the first half I thought my pick for the game might stand a chance with the Browns only four points behind at the end, but the defence adjusted and the Bengals eased themselves out to another win. I’m still waiting for things to go wrong, but obviously I am thrilled with how the season has gone so far. The Browns were shopping players at the end of the trade window, although who would think that they would make the most of any of the draft picks they were looking for. There needs to be a much more stable plan in Cleveland if they hope to ever do something in the AFC North.

Now it is time for me to move into the coaching tape write up, which this week I am combining with my normal weekly column as I am running out of time this week, but also I fell into one of the traps that highlights the joys and the madness of the NFL.

We all enjoy the excitement, admire the skill, and marvel at the physicality of watching football on game day, but there is also a whole other world of things to discover in the coaching tape. The all twenty-two and end zone views allow us to study all the personnel groupings, formations, and schematic battles that occur on every down, showing us why a receiver is wide open, why a player is dancing through the offensive line to make a tackle or sack in the backfield.

The problem for someone like me is that this season I am picking one game to go through, and then I have everything to look at. I am still refining my note taking, but I sat for an hour going through the Colts at Panthers from week eight and didn’t even make it out of the first quarter!

What I did see was that the Panthers defence is really good, and if you look at the end zone view you can really see why Luke Kuechly is such a special linebacker. Not only is he active before the snap, but he diagnoses the play so quickly and can knife forward to stuff the run at the line of scrimmage or drop seamlessly into coverage. It was also interesting to look at the Panthers offence and see just how they are maximising their output from Cam Newton, who is playing better this season but still overthrows receivers regularly in the passing game and can lack touch. However, he is a unique weapon in the running game as you simply do not see a quarterback regularly run head down like a running back into the opposing defence. It would terrify me if I was a Panthers fan as he takes so many hits, but he also pops up into the kind of face to face confrontation with the tackling defender in a way reminiscent of a running back, which is a lot of fun.

I didn’t see that many snaps by the Colts offence due to the flow of the quarter, but it is strange to see the media narrative surrounding Andrew Luck’s season, where he has gone from the next generational league saving quarterback in the preseason to a failing quarterback. There are worrying trends this season, he’s always thrown interceptions, but they are getting worse this season, and I got to see that in the one quarter of football in this game that I did see. On third down Charles Tillman playing right corner dropped into an under zone and Luck clearly did not account for him when he threw to TY Hilton running a route behind the corner, and so Tillman was able to intercept the ball before Hilton had a chance to make the catch. The problem is not so much the receivers, but the offensive line they have put in front of Luck and the twenty-fifth by DVOA rush offence they have given him this season. A young quarterback is always helped by a rushing game, and there has been a long string of quarterbacks who have been knocked out of the league by playing behind lines that could not protect them. The Colts fired their offensive coordinator and promoted Rob Chudzinski in a weirdly timed move given they have a short week before facing the leagues best defence and then go into a bye.

If you  read anything about NFL coaching, then you will likely hear about the hours they put into looking at tape and coming up with plans, and as an amateur with an interest it easy to how. When you start looking at the personnel on the field, how they are lined up on both sides of the ball, what the offence is running, what coverages are the defence playing, how well each player executed, down and distance, what reads a player had to make… the list really could be if not endless, extremely long. At least if you are a position coach then your area of focus is defines, and I think this is how I am going to try to reduce the task for me as I simply can’t spend hours and hours looking at one game no matter how much I want to. However, I can see how coaches do it, and why there’s always something else to see, because it is endlessly fascinating. Whether it’s watching route combinations to see how they get a player open, how a defence has balanced getting pressure against covering the five possible receivers of the offence, or the simple joy of watching a pass rusher setup an offensive linemen with a series of outside speed moves before bull rushing up the inside to get a sack, there is always a new nuance to learn or play to admire. There are so many coaching hours put into what we see each week, and the margins are so fine that very capable people can look foolish when they have probably been stressing all week a particular point that a player simply didn’t execute on Sunday. That is one of the strengths of the Patriots, they are so well coached that they appear ready each and every week despite the fact that they play such radically different game plans depending on the opponent.

I could continue to wax lyrical, but I would rather say that if you have NFL Game Pass, do yourself a favour and take a look at some coaching tape. It’s okay to be lost, but stick with it and I think you will start finding new things to admire and be fascinated by.

Now I finally move into the picks for this week, where Dan has already picked up a game on me this week so let’s see if I can get it back:

Dolphins @ Bills (-2.5)

I’m not convinced by either side who were both meant to be competing for the AFC East title this season, but things look at lot more familiar with the Patriots running away with the division. The Dolphins lost a huge part of their defence in Cameron Wake, and whilst I don’t expect a repeat of he beating they took last time they played, the Bills are getting some players back and have to get something going soon if they want to save their season

Gee’s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Packers @ Panthers (+2.5)

I think this is game of the week and it is being show for free on Freeview in the UK this weekend. I’m not sure why the Packers have got a five and half point swing given that they are on the road and the Panthers have playing very well this season. I think this is going to be a close game and if I am getting points as an unbeaten home team then I’ll take them, even if the Panthers do have to lose at some point

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Packers

Titans @ Saints (-7.5)

The Titans have fired their coach, and visit a Saints team who have definitely got their offence working better although the Giants’s defence was as poor as the Saints’ in last week’s highly entertaining game. I don’t see the Titans winning, and whilst the Saints may struggle to get this far ahead with their defence, it’s not going to stop me picking them.

Gee’s Pick:    Saints
Dan’s Pick:    Saints

Raiders @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Raiders are for real this season, beating a Jets team that may not have looked like themselves, but the Raiders have a winning record and hope for the first time in years. This week they face a different kind of team in the Steelers who are coming off a tough loss to the Bengals where they also lost Le’Veon Bell for the season. The Steelers have hung tough all year with a defence that has kept them in games whilst their potentially explosive offence has rotated injuries. I can see the Steelers winning it, but given all that’s going on I’m not sure why they are giving up more points this week against Raiders, even if the Raiders do have to come across from the west coast.

Gee’s Pick:    Raiders
Dan’s Pick:    Raiders

Rams @ Vikings (-2.5)

This looks to be another good game, but it might be one too many for a Vikings team who have quietly done well, but may well struggle against this Rams defence, whilst rookie Todd Gurley is rapidly looking like one of the best running backs in the league.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    Rams

Washington @ Patriots (-13.5)

Things have faded in Washington whilst the Patriots go from strength to strength and whilst the points give me pause, not for long enough to go against the Patriots at home.

Gee’s Pick:    Patriots
Dan’s Pick:    Patriots

Jaguars @ Jets (-6.5)

The Jets quarterback situation alone is enough for me to think that this game will be closer than this line suggests, and whilst I have a history of getting Jaguar picks wrong, they are coming off a win in London where they finally had to put together a late drive to win and did. I could regret this, but I’m jumping back on the Jaguars bandwagon for another week.

Gee’s Pick:    Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Falcons @ 49ers (+6.5)

The Falcons have flaws, and I might be worried about this line if it was not for the fact that the 49ers are starting Blaine Gabbert at quarterback this week. Watch me be wrong spectacularly later today, but I can’t pick it.

Gee’s Pick:    Falcons
Dan’s Pick:    Falcons

Giants @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

The Giants have activated Jason Pierre-Paul, and whilst I have no idea if this will impact their pass rush or not, I have more faith in their offence than the Buccaneers defence. I just don’t trust the Buccaneers even if they did beat the Falcons last week.

Gee’s Pick:    Giants
Dan’s Pick:    Giants

Broncos @ Colts (+3.5)

The Colts new offensive coordinator has his toughest test in his first week, and whilst the points do give me a little pause given that the Colts are at home, they are not a good team and I think the Broncos remain unbeaten for another week behind their amazing defence. It will be interesting to see if their offensive performance against the Packers was an anomaly or a sign of things coming together after their bye week.

Gee’s Pick:    Broncos
Dan’s Pick:    Broncos

Eagles @ Cowboys (+2.5)

The Cowboys have not won a game since losing Tony Romo, and the Eagles defence is what they have been leaning on this year. You can never be certain about anything with the Eagles this year, but I think they will win this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Eagles
Dan’s Pick:    Eagles

Bears @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers’ injury problems continue as they lost Keenan Allen for the year to a lacerated kidney, which is an injury that makes you shudder just to write it. The Chargers defence is a mess, whilst Rivers has to play at a high level to keep his team close in losses, and they have had no home field advantage. I think the Bears will keep this one close as they have at least become solid in John Fox’s first year even if this hasn’t turned into wins.

Gee’s Pick:    Bears
Dan’s Pick:    Bears

Week 5 Amateur Adventures in Film

18 Sunday Oct 2015

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , ,

I thoroughly enjoyed the Browns at Ravens game on coaching tape, but it was a curious one in that it was the offences and the personnel/formations that caught my eye on coaching tape, and only a few stand out plays caught my eyes on defence, mostly by the Ravens.

The Ravens’ offence was not impressive in the passing game, but had a field day running against the Browns defence. Initially they weren’t too impressive out of obvious running formations, but were able to get things out of 11 personnel early on in the game, and as it wore on were able to run consistently well in 12 personnel. Joe Flacco was able to get seventy-eight passing yards to Kamr Aikens, but forty-eight of those yards came on one play, and he was only able to hit him four times out of nine attempts, missing several deep strikes where Aikens had generated separation. They only gave up one sack, but the Browns were only rushing four on that play, and linebacker Armonty Bryant was able to get matched up with Justin Forsett and push him back into Flacco and get the sack.

There was not a lot that grabbed my attention from the Browns defence, the Ravens struggled to move the ball against them, but as I said, Flacco missed several deep balls that were available to Kamar Aikens. However, they bottled up the rest of the Ravens receivers, but that was the only good thing that could be said. The only other note I have about the Browns defence is a pass that was well deflected by linebacker Nate Orchard, but you can see why they are ranked as lowly as they are.

However, the Browns offence does seem to be coming together nicely. They moved the ball okay in the first half, but were only able to finish it with three field goals. However, they did establish that 11 personnel in various formations was their most effective way of moving the ball, and move the ball they did totally over five hundred yards, and Josh McCown throwing for over four hundred and fifty yards. His leading receiver was tight end Gary Barnidge who was lining up all round the formation, and ended the game with eight catches from ten targets for one hundred and thirty-nine yards and a touchdown, whilst Travis Benjamin caught six balls of twelve targets for eighty-three yards. However, the Browns also had Taylor Gabriel chip in seventy-five yards including the Browns’ longest play of fifty-six yards and Andrew Hawkins also gave them fifty yards from the slot. The passing game was what won them the game, as they were not able to rely on the run although Isaiah Crowell was able to maintain a reasonable yards per carry average, but the Ravens were solid against the run despite the rest of their defensive problems.

The Ravens defence gave up over five hundred yards in this game, and could not cope with the Browns passing game. The coverage after the game was that once they lost Elvis Doomervil, the Ravens were unable to generate a pass rush, but they did in fact manage to get four sacks and a further six quarterback hits, but they had to manufacture this by blitzing, and even on one play made it look like they were sending six before a linebacker dropped back into coverage. Their front seven was sold against the run, and tackle Brandon Williams was a handful all game logging a sack, tackle for a lost, and a quarterback hit, whilst frequently getting penetration and disrupting the browns. However, they could not cover the Browns well enough and it is telling that the only coverage note I made was a play where Jimmy Smith had tight coverage on a deep ball, but he was also second on the team for tackles behind linebacker Daryl Smith and didn’t have any passes deflected.

The Browns look like they have the offence to give a lot of teams trouble, even if they are ranked twenty-seventh in rush DVOA, the passing game is what has got them to their 2-3 record, and we will have to see how far it will get them.

The Ravens front seven is not getting enough pressure with a straight rush to give their back end a chance of covering, which meant they got gashed in the passing game, and this could be an ongoing problem. If they can get Steve Smith Senior back on offence, then things will pick up on that side of the ball in the pass game, but this is a team with flaws on the outside of both sides of the ball, and so far this has cost them. They do not look like your average 1-4 team, but their defence could have issues all season.

NFL Week 10 Browns @ Bengals Recap

09 Sunday Nov 2014

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , ,

As a Bengals fan this was a tough game to watch live, and I only made it through so much coaching tape as it was just horrible to pick the debacle apart. At the start of the year my things to watch for these teams was left tackle Joe Thomas and the quarterback situation for the Browns, and for the Bengals it was AJ Green, Geno Atkins and Vontaze Burfict. The problem with the Bengals players was that coming into the game Burfict was out with a knee problem, and having watched the game live, the only real stories for me were Andy Dalton’s epic melt down and Marshall Newhouse’s problems at right tackle. I gave up making notes of BE#14 incomplete pass or variations of, as well as BE#74 beaten or gives up pressure, but before we get into that let’s start with the positive things in this game.

One of the things I was interested in at the beginning of the season was the quarterback situation for the Browns, and whilst this is bubbling under, there is no controversy in this game. Brian Hoyer is a competent quarterback who has led his team to a 6-3 record this season, with an overall record as a starter of 9-4. He doesn’t exactly set the world alight, but he is a solid starter who threw for 198 yards on fifteen of twenty-three passes with no touchdowns and no interceptions. The Browns rushing game had been struggling since Alex Mack went out injured, but they managed to run for 170 yards in this game. The interesting thing for me was that at the end of the game when the Bengals had pulled Andy Dalton, the Browns didn’t put Johnny Manziel into the game to get him some reps, and I can only think that this is because they knew what a media circus this would cause, and that in of itself is a little worrying.

However, what the Browns’ QB does not have to worry about is pressure from the right side of the opposing defence. Their left tackle Joe Thomas is seven time Pro Bowler, four time First-Team All-Pro player, and he certainly looks the part. The Bengals pass rush has not been good this season, and certainly didn’t look to trouble Thomas. I’m no expert in line play, but he was always in control of the engagement in pass protection, never off balance and didn’t look like he was going to give up pressure in this game at any point.

Pretty much the complete opposite could be said of Marshall Newhouse who was standing in for Andre Smith at right tackle. There were very few plays where he didn’t seem to be giving up pressure or being forced back into the play, and these were usually when he wasn’t being rushed. He also managed to give up a couple of drive killing holding penalties, and the problem is further exacerbated by Andre Smith being currently listed as questionable due to his ankle problem with the Bengals about to go to New Orleans, not the kind of place you want to play if you are having line issues.

Whilst the Bengals offence looked bad all game, the defence hung in for a while, but it is worrying that a team with starting defensive tackles of Domata Peko and Geno Atkins are ranked dead last in rush defence by DVOA. Some of this will be down to how little Vontaze Burfict has played all season, and Rey Maualuga is currently out as well with a hamstring problem, but there are clearly issues with stopping the run. The only real bright spot in this game was Geno Atkins bursting through the line so quickly he was able to tackle Brian Hoyer before he could hand the ball off. In this age where players come back so quickly from ACL tears, it seems like Atkins is still getting his burst back, and I would not be surprised if we see a resurgence from him next season.

The one player who needs resurgence straight away is Andy Dalton. I have been impressed with the way that Hue Jackson has been running the offence, with a good amount of creative play calling, which included a thirteen yard run by wide receiver James Wright off what looked like normal receiver motion in the slot, and a good looking run by Jeremy Hill who was lined up at fullback. However, the commitment to the run that was so vaunted before the season doesn’t quite seem to be working in practice, and Andy Dalton has been having issues in the last couple of weeks.

There is a narrative that Dalton is not good under the pressure of nationally televised games, and certainly his record is pretty paltry. This game however was the worst, with Dalton finishing with a quarterback rating of two. He threw for eighty-six yards, completing ten of thirty-three attempts with three interceptions, and should have had a fourth when he overthrew another pass straight to Browns safety Tashaun Gipson who leads the league in interceptions yet somehow dropped it. It was straight after this dropped interception that Dalton was sacked twice and I gave up watching the coaching tape.

For the first sack Desmond Bryant straight beat Marshall Newhouse at right tackle to get to Dalton, then on the very next play the Browns only sending three pass rushers, somehow Bryant ended up one on one with Bengals rookie centre Russell Bodine and got his second sack. However, these were the only sacks  of the game and  the problems began much earlier.

The Bengals opening drive finished in an interception, when Dalton threw to Jermaine Gresham who wasn’t really open and Craig Robertson simply beat him to the ball. The fact that the Bengals only managed three points in this game is made worse by the fact that the offence did not really generate them. On their second drive of the game, the Bengals initially stalled and it was only that the Browns fumbled the ball on the resulting punt return that got the Bengals decent field position, but they couldn’t really take advantage of it. The drive was only kept alive, when on fourth and ten, Andy Dalton’s pass to Mohamed Sanu fell incomplete, but Buster Skrine was called for pass interference. The drive continued to falter until finally on third and fifteen, Andy Dalton ran past the line of scrimmage and then threw an illegal pass which fell incomplete and Mike Nugent kicked the field goal. I’d just like to remind you that this was the only scoring drive of the game.

Every now and a gain the Bengals would start a drive with a good run or complete a pass, but they could not sustain anything and this was not a surprise as Dalton kept missing throws, often by quite a margin. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter that Dalton actually threw more interceptions, but by the time the second and third ones came the game was already over, and it just added more insult to the horrible performance by Dalton.

The Browns have been competitive year and whilst I don’t know if they will be able to maintain their push for the playoffs, things are looking up in the city of Cleveland. For the Bengals, I said it was a playoff win or bust this season. There have been injuries, but frankly I’m not sure they are even going to make the playoffs. The regular season record of Andy Dalton got him his contract extension, along with having AJ Green to throw to, but if he doesn’t find a way to win nationally televised games regularly then the Bengals are going to remain the team with the longest playoff drought in the NFL.

I think I need to take a break from football for a bit now…