Tag Archives: Cincinnati Bengals

Football is Back

14 Sunday Aug 2016

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And we are back.

I’m sorry this blog has been quiet over the offseason, but it turns out that publishing a book is a lot of work and so whilst I was following the offseason as usual, there wasn’t much time to delve deeply into free agency or the draft and I didn’t have the time to dive into my usual football/coaching offseason reading.

If you want to take a look at what I was up to, head over to gavinneale.com where I have been writing about the publishing process and getting my first children’s book out into the world.

However, it has been a refreshing break and I am eager to get into the new season and we already have our first round of preseason games and the training camp documentary Hard Knocks has aired its first episode as they follow the relocated Los Angeles Rams.

I will be scaling back my preseason watching this year as I haven’t been able to cope with the number of team’s I’ve tried to follow previously, so I will be focussing as usual on the Bengals, following the Rams’ games in parallel with Hard Knocks, and will be picking an as yet undecided third team, although I’ll need to pick someone soon.

The first episode of Hard Knocks was relatively quiet; we discovered that head coach Jeff Fisher doesn’t want to go 7-9 this season. The fact that this is what his teams often do is possibly not lost on him, but I will be curious to see how they get on in the coming weeks.

Aaron Donald is one of my favourite players (admittedly I do have a lot of those) and we have already discovered that’s he is pretty competitive (hardly a surprise in a professional sportsman) and that he’s pretty damn good at table tennis. The number of players who were having problems with the sun rising in the east and setting in the west was kind of scary, and let’s hope Jared Goff learns quickly as the Rams have bet a lot in their trade to get the number one pick and get him. We also learned just how close quarterbacks have to get to their centres, and the tank top obsession starting centre Eric Kush that featured heavily in the arrival footage.

Moving on from the Rams, I’ll pick up the Bengals first preseason game as that’s the one I have watched so far, and will pick up the others in the future.

The big question coming into this preseason is surrounding the receivers after the loss of both Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu.

However, my initial take was that Andy Dalton looked pretty good in his opening series, completing his first five passes as the Bengals drove the ball well and then missed a field goal.

Thankfully this was preseason, as having lost the game 17-16 to the Minnesota Vikings that miss could have proved critical, although Marvin Lewis did use this game to try going for two rather than kicking an extra point at the end of the game that would have tied it.

If the first team offence looked good, with my own real worry being an injury to starting running back Jeremy Hill’s finger, the first team defence was downright scary, producing a pressure, sack, pressure, and a punt for the Vikings first offensive series of the game. Both Michael Johnson and Geno Atkins got in on the sack, with Atkins generating the pressure on the first play of the drive, and Carlos Dunlap getting pressure on the second.

That was pretty much it for the first team defence and we saw the depth play out for the rest of the game. The Vikings found it easier to move the ball, and you could tell that the Bengals have been banged up in the secondary as the quality of coverage did slip earlier than you would have liked in this game, although this was only the first of preseason.

That said, a couple of newer names caught the eye on defence, in particular third round linebacker Nick Virgil who seemed to be in the right place often and stuffed a run either at the line of scrimmage or for a small loss. Second year defensive tackle Marcus Hardison caught my eye with lots of good penetration and seemed to play well next to undrafted free agent rookie David Dean.

The probable star of this game was another undrafted free agent rookie in receiver Alex Erickson who caught a touchdown pass from AJ McCarron shortly before halftime and returned a punt for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to setup the Bengals’ failed two point conversion.

Erickson was not the only receiver fighting for a roster spot to play well, with rookie draft picks Tyler Body and Cody Core both making several catches and looking good in the process, along with a number of practice squad and lower in the depth chart receivers also catching balls.

I said the big question for the Bengals this preseason would be a receiver, and this game demonstrated that there looks to be a lot of good options. Whilst I certainly wouldn’t want to make a pick as to who will make it this early in the preseason, I am feeling a lot happier about the position already and that is a pretty good outcome from the first preseason game.

Onwards then, to the rest of the preseason games as the start of the season finally comes into view.

An Unexpected Mock and the Real Draft

01 Sunday May 2016

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My offseason on the blog has been quieter than I was expecting as it turns out that self-publishing a book is a time consuming business, but I have still been following along as the offseason progressed. It was however, kick-started into gear when the Gridiron Gentlemen were looking for people to take part in their mock draft, and in the spirit of curiosity I offered to lend a hand for the Bengals.

This was always going to be an interesting experience for me as I am not a college football fan, but I have been listening to college/draft analysis podcasts all season and as a Bengals fan I feel like I have a handle on what the team have been doing to have turned around their drafting fortunes. Gone are the days of spectacular busts, and thanks to multiple years of solid pick they have one of the deepest rosters in the league.

So I tried to model my drafting method on the Bengals own, so I planned to draft the best player available, but taking account of the positions involved. I don’t know much of my biases are based on opinion abut the draft and how much is following the Bengals as a fan, but for me in the first round you focus on key positions that are defined by particular physical traits. The only exception to this is if you need a quarterback as that is always the key position, but as the Bengals have two quarterbacks who won games last season, they were not in that market this year. The positions I would focus on in the first round are corners, offensive line tackles, pass rushers, wide receivers, and defensive tackles. Each of these positions are either particularly based around athleticism, or are hard to find as there simply are not that many athletic three hundred pound plus people on the planet. I did not have time to create my own draft board, so I chose one and focussed in on several players ranked around twenty-four, which is where the Bengals were picking.

Obviously I don’t have my own staff of scouts, but a couple of players had got my attention in the range that I was picking. My first target was Josh Doctson, one of the most complete receiving talents in the draft, and one that Robert Mays, ex of Grantland and now of Bill Simmon’s new venture The Ringer, was effusive in his match to the Bengals need at receiver and what he could do opposite AJ Green. Another was Mackenzie Alexander, who is a bit short the Bengals usual preference for corners, but who was something of a favourite of Fran Duffy both for his play, and for a press conference where he not only broke down one receiver that he had been asked about, but then continued through other receivers in the draft.

This is the graphic of the entire first round pick:

Gents_Mock_Draft

With two picks to go before me I liked three players, and Houston Texans took a receiver I didn’t want for my team I knew I would have a decision to make, but a good one and then the Minnesota Vikings took Josh Doctson. I plumped for Mackensie Alexander, knowing his size was less than ideal for the Bengals, but liking how he had played and I was not worried about the lack of interceptions. The Pittsburgh Steelers then took Eli Apple, who was probably a better fit, but it was my pick and I followed my heart at the position the Bengals eventually picked.

The interesting things is looking at the actual draft where the Bengals took corner William Jackson III so I did get the position right, and Mackensie Alexander didn’t get drafted until the second round by the Vikings, but Eli Apple was picked at ten by the New York Giants.

This is where things get a bit strange. I have no problems with people talking about picks they liked and didn’t. However, much like the free agent period, we are already rushing to pick winners and losers in the draft and to grade teams. The truth is however, that we simply do not know who has had a good draft yet. The jury should be out for a couple of years, and even then what is often termed a bust is not always the team’s fault. Injury plays a huge part in the game of football, and no one can predict who will succumb to a major injury and who won’t. You would hope to get at least a solid starter out of your first round pick, you simply can’t have too many of those not work out if you want to be a successful team, but the problem can be as much with expectation as it is with actual play. I always remember the criticism of Justin Smith before he left the team, that he not produced enough sacks for a top five pick. He was however, a three down player who was playing out of position and still had an incredible career, finally gaining the praise he deserved playing as a 3-4 end for the San Francisco 49ers’ defence.

However, the real reason for the drafts prominence is that it gives us fans a shot of hope in the long dark offseason. We can now start to familiarise ourselves with the new players our teams have picked, watch them sign undrafted free agents, and begin the countdown to their first workouts and the things that really matter: the start of training camp, pre-season games, and how the teams are beginning to shape up as the new season approaches. For now however, it is fun to bask in the glow of hope as it is not so long until players start working and the reality of another seasons starts to make itself known.

Heroes, and the Divisional Weekend

16 Saturday Jan 2016

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It has been a rough few days. Between Lemmy’s funeral, the Bengals’ implosion, and then Bowie’s death, I have been wandering around in something of a haze. That’s two music icons and personal heroes gone, along with the continuing twenty-five year wait for a playoff win. That’s not even a championship, but the hope that the team, fans, and the city of Cincinnati would be spared a fifth consecutive playoff loss, but I’ll come back to the Wildcard games in a bit.

In the days following Bowie’s death there have been some writing that they don’t understand the outpouring of grief over a musician, that this is someone that you have never met so why are you sad? The answer to that was put rather beautifully by Lauren Laverne on her Monday radio show, because of course it is personal, music has that strange and magical hook direct into your soul. It has the power to soothe, to inspire, it is the soundtrack to your life, and can take you back to a key moments from your past in an instant. Part of our identity is what we chose to love, what is important to us. This is the same process that makes someone care about the outcome of twenty-two men chasing a ball around a field, what films we like to watch, or what books we read. It is all a part of how we identify ourselves, how we express to the world who and what we are.

I have written before on the positive effects that sport can have, particularly with participation, but also for simply taking someone out of themselves. What I love about Bowie was his endless exploration of self-expression. This pursuit wasn’t a search for a new on trend sound that would help further his career, but the continuing development of a curious artist. I don’t have the single personal moment of a song telling me that I could do or be something that I have heard so many talk about in the last few days. I am too young for him to have revolutionised what was possible, for me it had already happened, but oh boy what a catalogue of songs. To me he was intrinsically intertwined with what a musician should be, and so as a drummer, therefore what I should aspire to be. I can’t hear Rebel Rebel without thinking about my dad, it was one of those conversations father and sons have across generations when they both love music. We all have heroes and influences. Some people have a select few. I could wax lyrical on scientists, politicians, artists of all hues, and yes sports people.

Even as I write the first draft of this blog, we have learned that Alan Rickman has also passed away, again aged 69 and killed by cancer. Death is not something we like to think about, it is an all too painful reminder of our own mortality. It is even more shocking when it comes as a surprise, when we were ignorant of the illness, when an album was only released three days earlier.

So how do I pull this back to sport of all things? Well by dint of the aforementioned discussion on policing grief. Like all things, there are degrees of grief. Life in all its infinite complex glory gives us endless things to care about, and usually concern over one thing does not deny concern about the other. We have to have some kind of balance, otherwise we’d collapse under the cares of the world. I am saddened by the death of a hero. But what about all the wars? My team lost a playoff game. Are you not concerned by the systematic dismantling of the welfare state? My team is moving city. Do I contradict myself? Very well then, I contradict myself. I am large, I contain multitudes.

With apologies to Walt Whitman, we’ll get back to football, and the various sets of fans that have had a pretty bad week as well.

The Houston Texans had done well to even make the playoffs, but last weekend really was one game too far. The game started with a one hundred and six yard kick off return touchdown by the Chiefs, and things never improved as the Texans slipped to a 30-0 loss. The defence actually gave a reasonable account of themselves, especially with JJ Watt having further injuries, but the offence was horrible. Racking up five turnovers, with Brian Hoyer throwing four interceptions and two fumbles, losing one to the Chiefs, things never got going in the passing game. In fairness, having your starting left tackle is always going to hurt, but the lack of options behind DeAndre Hopkins really hurt the Texans, and you have to think they will be looking to address this in the offseason.

I have said playoff win or bust for the Bengals all season, and it was another painful loss. However, if last year’s loss was explainable by the number of injuries to the skill positions on offence, then this one was understandable given the Bengals were without their starting quarterback and still gave a reasonable account of themselves in the fourth quarter. Despite not scoring in the first three quarters, AJ McCarron put the Bengals in a position to win the game, and they had the ball with 1:50 left on the clock. With a year left on his contract, building one of the league’s most talented rosters, and with his coaching tree still expanding, it appears that Marvin Lewis is safe for another year in Cincinnati, but he will have to address the issue of discipline/poise in the offseason. I have no issue with either of the late penalties that cost the Bengals this game, although Joey Porter had no business being on the field and another coach had already pulled Reggie Nelson’s dreadlocks on the sideline, but you have to be smarter than both Burfict and Jones were at the end of this game. I am sure the league will be looking at ways to control this fixture going forward as they will desperate to avoid the rancour escalating further given the Steelers and Bengals face each other twice a season. Already Hue Jackson has left to be head coach of the Cleveland Browns, so it will be another season of change at coordinator for the Bengals, but so much of the team’s recent success has been built through the offseason and draft that hopefully this part of the process will take care of itself once more.

The most painful loss of the Wildcard round has to be the Minnesota Viking’s agonising last second loss on a missed chip shot twenty-seven yard field goal. You have to think that Blair Walsh will be thinking about that kick for years to come, but this should not take the gloss of the continuing progress the Vikings have made, In ex-Bengal coordinator Mike Zimmer’s second year in charge the Vikings were able to wrestle the NFC North division away from the Green Bay Packers, and have a young foundation to build on. They need to sure up the offensive line and get Teddy Bridgewater some options on offence, but the Vikings have a very tough defence and are heading in the right direction. You can argue that they have the most to look forward to out of the four teams that were eliminated last weekend.

That said, Washington are also making good progress in another ex-Bengals coordinator’s second year in charge. Fittingly, old offensive coordinator Jay Gruden found a formula during the course of the season that turned quarterback Kirk Cousins into one of the most effective passers in the league in the final weeks. With two solid receivers and a very promising progression from tight end Jordan Reid there is hope for them next season. They will need to strengthen their defence, particularly in the secondary, if they want to compete in their division again next season, but they were able to compete with the Packers for three quarters. There looks to be a foundation to build from as long as they can sign Cousins to a sensible contract.

I will come back to the franchises that are moving in the offseason once all the deals have been firmed up, but I can’t help feeling sorry for the fans in St. Louis who are losing their team. It at least makes sense for the Rams to return to Los Angeles, and the offer has been made for the Chargers to join them. We will have to see if they agree, but it looks likely that they will be on the move in some way or the other. At least the Raiders look set to stay in Oakland, but I’m sure their fans won’t feel safe until the franchise finds a long term stadium solution.

So now onto this week’s games, which unsurprising all look to be great.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

All the talk about the Patriots is that they are getting all their key players back, and that just having Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski back will enable to Tom Brady to get the ball out quicker, helping the Patriots in pass protection. This is likely to be the deciding factor in this game, the Chiefs defence has been excellent for most of the season since they got corner Shaun Smith back from injury, but their pass rush will need to be effective if the Chiefs are to win this game.

The Patriots defence has been good for large chunks of the season, but the Chiefs have been getting it done without spectacular passing numbers from Alex Smith, who doesn’t turn the ball over. They actually seem to have improved since running back Jamaal Charles has gone down, but it will be interesting to see if they can scheme their way into competing in this game.

I wouldn’t like to call this game as there are too many injury unknowns, but I am expecting a good contest.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

I am looking forward to this game as the Cardinals are my favourite team left in the competition. Their aggressive long passing game has been effective against virtually everyone, whilst they got a huge amount of pressure on Aaron Rodgers the last time they played.

The Packers may have pulled away from Washington at the end of the game, but the offence still hasn’t proved to me that it can play against man coverage, which has been their downfall for much of the season. If they can turn the Cardinal’s aggressive pass rush against them, then they might be able to win this game as their defence has been playing well recently, but I am expecting them to come up short in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

The Seahawks are a good team, but they are lucky to be playing in this game. They should have lost against the Vikings if Blair Walsh hadn’t missed the last second field goal. Their offence got very little going last week except when for when Russell Wilson made plays out of structure, but the Seahawks defence is looking good once more and should keep them in contention.

However, the one area the Seahawks defence have struggled with is against tight ends, and Cam Newton’s favourite target this season has been tight end Greg Olson. The Panthers beat the Seahawks in week six, and with their own great defence you would expect them to repeat the feat at home. The Seahawks are always a dangerous proposition in the post season, but you don’t go 15-1 without being very good.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Our final game of the weekend sees Peyton Manning start the game after an injury plagued season where he has ranked amongst the worst quarterbacks in the league. We really can’t be sure how effective the offence will be against a Steelers defence that plays better than its patchy secondary, but the Broncos have been like this all season. What has got them into the playoffs is a fearsome defence, and although they had difficulties against the Steelers earlier in the season, they have been mixing more zone into their coverages, which might help them as the Bengals’ two high safety look did limit the Steelers’ passing attack.

The Steelers will be concerned about attempting their normal game on offence, as Antonio Brown has been ruled out of this week’s game with the concussion he sustained at the end of the game against the Bengals. Somehow Ben Roethlisberger is only questionable despite a sprained AC join and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. If you combine this with the injuries to their running backs and the Steelers might just be too injured to win this one. They will play the Broncos tough, but I would have more faith in the Bronco’s Brock Osweiler than Landry Jones if it does come down to a battle of the backups. I’m expecting the Steelers’ defence to blitz the Broncos heavily to keep themselves in the game, but I think this could be a week too many for the Steelers.

It should be a great set of games this weekend, and let’s hope the world eases up on us a bit going into next week.

 

The Start of the Offseason, and Wildcard Weekend

08 Friday Jan 2016

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I approach this weekend with both excitement and trepidation. I have maintained from the start of pre-season that it was a playoff win or bust for the Bengals, and so of course they are playing the old enemy ten years after the hopes of Bengaldom were so cruelly dashed by the injury to Carson Palmer’s knee in their infamous 2005 playoff loss to the Steelers. I am not here to pillory the Steelers, but for those who know how badly I will take a loss this weekend, be assured that I will have people to watch over me.

The NFL season has this strange two tier effect in that for twenty teams the season is done, and so you get the so called Black Monday firings, although these seem to be moving into Sunday these days. Yet for twelve teams the season continues, but now the teams who have fired are looking for new head coaches, and there are always tensions as they try to find a gap to interview a coordinator from a playoff bound team to be their head coach. The system has existed for years, and I’m sure there are reasons that it cannot be altered, but it does feel like it would make more sense to get the season done with before signings could happen. I am sure that Hue Jackson is focussed on the game plan for Saturday’s game, but his upcoming interview with the Cleveland Browns has to be some kind of distraction.

Speaking of which, the Browns have been very quick out of the gate in terms of not only firing their head coach and GM, but also in hiring new people. There has been a fair bit of scepticism about the internal promotion of Sashi Brown to executive vice president of football operations and the hiring of Paul DePodesta, a baseball analytics executive from the New York Mets who was part of the famed Oakland Athletics “Monebyball” approach based on sabermetrics. I have some sympathy with the worry that with everyone seeming to report in to Jimmy Haslam that there might be problems with leadership, but I am cautiously optimistic about this for one simple reason. I have spent a lot of this year referring to the Browns as a mess, and they have done a bad job of constructing their roster, yet with these moves the team are clearly moving in the direction of analytics as being their approach. Only time will tell if they will stick to this path, and if they can make it work, but for the first time in a while it is actually possible to point to a plan in Cleveland. I am really hoping that plan is does not include Hue Jackson as it is bad enough that the Bengals are likely losing him from the team, without having to face him twice a year. Still it is early days, but I am very curious to see how things progress in Cleveland and if this new approach can take hold. And who know, if they are interested in analytics and new thinking, perhaps Chip Kelly will be getting a call.

If the Browns acted quickly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers caught Dan and I off guard by waiting until Wednesday night, Thursday morning UK time, after we had recorded the podcast to announce the firing of Lovie Smith. It appears that part of this decision might be a reaction to the Dolphins enquiring about their offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who is now seen as a strong candidate to become head coach. This makes sense in that having just drafted your franchise quarterback, you wouldn’t want to make him learn a new system in his second year. The other likely factor is that not only has Lovie Smith only won eight games during his two years in charge, but the defence did not look like it was progressing and that is his side of the ball.

Perhaps the most confusing of all the team moves was not a firing, but the extension of both Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson. It seems like all year we have heard about friction between head coach Pagano and his GM, whilst the team’s inability to protect the quarterback sunk them in a very winnable division. That Pagano was able to beat the Tennesse Titans with street free agent quarterbacks Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley only having a week’s practice indicates that Pagano perhaps deserver to be back, but given the questions many people, including myself, have about the approach Grigson has taken to free agency and the draft, it is surprising that he was retained. However, they are now tied together by contract for another four year so we will just have to see what the plan is in the offseason and if they can turn things around.

The offseason will continue to turn with or without me, so let’s take a look at the weekend games.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans

In the first of the Saturday games, the 11-5 Chiefs travel to face the 9-7 Texans, and they are somewhat similar teams. Both had bad starts to the season, strong defences, game managing quarterbacks, and a very high quality receiver. Somehow JJ Watt manage to amass 17.5 sacks despite playing with a broken hand for part of the season, whist the Chiefs defence found itself once the secondary solidified, and rookie corner Marcus Peters jointly leads the league in interceptions.

I am really looking forward to this game as I think there will be a lot of good defence on display, and both head coaches have done good jobs in keeping their team together through the bad starts and getting their teams to the playoffs. However, the Chiefs are currently on a ten game winning streak and finished the season ranked the fifth team overall by DVOA according to Football Outsiders, moving up to second in their weighted DVOA stat which emphasises recent performance more. I’m enjoying not having to predict games, but I think the Chiefs will likely win a tight bruising game to start the weekend.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

The big story of the Bengals coming into this game is that Andy Dalton is unlikely to play, as always seemed to be the case once he fractured his thumb playing the Steelers four weeks ago. The Bengals have what is widely regarded as one of the most well rounded rosters in the league, and certainly they are in better shape than they were coming out of the regular season. However, there is huge amount of press focus being place on Marvin Lewis and his zero playoff wins, and people do think the Bengals can win. The defence is good, and narrowly missed out on allowing the least amount of points in the league to the Seahawks whilst still setting a franchise record. The skill position players are still all available, but there is definitely a drop in play at quarterback, although he is making all the right noises and doesn’t so much look phased, as like a good young quarterback with only three starts.

The problem for me in trying to be objective about this game is that I am unreasonably nervous. The players are focussed on themselves, and very few have been here for all of the recent string of playoff losses. I think they will be isolating themselves from the city’s angst, but the fact of the matter is the crowd will be worried as they carry twenty-five years without a playoff win into the game. And of course it had to be the Steelers…

They have had injury problems, and a defence that can be patchy, but they are a tough scrappy team with one of the scariest receiver groups in the game. The Steelers come into the game with a solid win against the Bengals four weeks ago, and in fact Marvin Lewis is only 5-13 against the Steelers with four of those wins coming in Pittsburgh. I will be able to focus more on the Steelers when they make it through this game (I have no idea at this point if I’m trying to jinx them, or prepare myself for if they Bengals do lose) but for now let’s just say I want to get the game over with and no what the story of the offseason is going to be. I desperately want Marvin Lewis to get a playoff win as he has done so much to improve the state of the Bengals, and it would be so good if they could get on a run and Andy Dalton could put to the rest his critics as well, but for now, I’m moving on to games that I can think about with less trepidation.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minesota Vikings

The Vikings reward for beating Green Bay last week and winning their division is to host a red hot Seahawks team who finished the season as the top ranked team by DVOA. Another team to struggle early, they had problems holding onto leads, but the defence has found its way again, whilst Russell Wilson’s transition midway through the season into a very effective pocket quarterback despite, or perhaps because of the loss of tight end Jimmy Graham who the Seahawks traded for in the offseason, has made them a frightening proposition.

The Viking on the other hand, have been quietly solid all year as Mike Zimmer has taken them to a division win in only his second year as head coach. The defence is sure tackling, features Zimmer’s double A-gap blitz looks, and has only allowed an opponent to score more than twenty-three points twice all season. Sadly one of these was a game where the Seahawks blew them out 7-38, but they were missing three starters down the spine of their defence. However those starters have returned, and the weather forecast is suggesting it will be an incredibly cold game, which could hamper the suddenly explosive passing game of the Seahawks. However, the problem with this is that Adrian Peterson by his own admission has never adjusted to the very cold temperatures that can occur in Minnesota. Not only that, but whilst the Seahawks’ defence has had their problems this season, stopping the run has not been one of them, and they have been looking formidable once more in recent weeks.

I see this being a close game, but I would imagine the Seahawks are likely to continue on into next week.

Green Bay Packers @ Washington

The Packers have had a strange season thanks to the injury to Jordy Nelson, but are really struggling at the moment with constant shuffling of their offensive line due to injury, a stagnant run game, and receivers that are struggling to get open. Somehow Aaron Rodgers was able to get them into position to draw level with the Vikings at the end of last week’s game, but he is not elevating those around him, and it appears that the season has worn him down.

The Packers visit are travelling to face a Washington team who have one of the league’s better passing attacks at the end of the season. Their defence might not be that great, but frankly Kirk Cousins is the quarterback with the best form, and has put together a remarkable string of stats since the infamous, “You like that?” game.

I have a feeling that with the problems they currently have, and being on the road, that Washington may well win this game. However, with a decent defence, and Aaron Rodgers, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Packers found a way to win.

F is for Fanatic, or fan.

17 Thursday Dec 2015

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This week’s column is brought to you by the letter f, which for the purposes of the blog will stand for fanatic, or fan, rather than what I was saying on Sunday. It was a rough day for Bengals fans with the excellent season crumbling before our eyes, and inevitably it had to be against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers seemed to maintain their composure that bit more than the Bengals, but it was a cruel blow to lose Andy Dalton to a thumb fracture. I don’t want to write a woe is me piece, or spill bile directed at the Steelers, but I wanted to take a moment with the end of the regular season looming to take a look at the experience of being a fan.

You may well have heard people make reference to fan being a contraction of fanatic, and whether this is a true derivation or a nice line, there is no question that there are a huge number of people invested in various sports teams across the world, and some of them can be very committed. I would tend to think of myself as informed rather than maniacal, but there’s no question that I was excessively upset with the situation on Sunday. In fact I was probably as upset as I was with the dispiriting playoff loss to the Colts last season. I bounced back fairly quickly from that game as there were so many injuries to the offence’s skill players that I didn’t buy into the Andy Dalton narrative about not being able to win a playoff game. However, the plain fact of the matter is that he hasn’t yet, and one of the wonderful things about this season was that through play alone Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton were changing that story, and I felt that it stood a very good chance of being put to bed this season. There’s still a slight chance that it might, but I wouldn’t back it to happen, although there’s a chance that if Lewis and Hue Jackson can work with AJ McCarron that a playoff win can be found and the leagues longest playoff win drought will finally come to an end.

The key thing for this column though is that here I am on a different continent, in a world beset by problems more serious than a team’s ability to beat another at a contest of strength, skill, and speed, yet still there was a significant period of time where what I was upset about the bad fortune that had befallen a group of people I have never met dressed in orange and black. And yet I don’t think this is necessarily a bad thing. Yes I would agree that a lot of professional sports people, particularly the men, are overpaid when compared to the truly important work that people put in for society, but that doesn’t mean I want to get rid of professional sports. These issues speak to the nature of markets and their interaction with society rather than a problem with sport. I won’t give you a complete treatise on the faults of free market capitalism, or pretend that I have a solution, but I do want to take a moment to examine the fan experience, sports, and why if we can maintain a sense of proportion that sport is important.

I have written before about the importance in coaching, and I don’t think it is a coincidence that sport coaches are often called in to give talks on management or write books on how to build successful teams. However, you average fan may not be reading books on coaching techniques, incremental improvements, or developing a coherent philosophy for success. However, I strongly believe that we all only have so much time that we can spend in focussed work. This is perhaps even more the case if you work in a high pressure situation, or for long hours. If we look back at human history, we see the need to escape the every day woven through the human experience. As a writer, a musician, and so technically an artist, I know how important it is to connect with people’s everyday experience, but also to take them out of themselves. I hate criticisms of escapism as very few people can be completely serious all of the time, and I’m not sure how much time you would want to spend with those who are. The ability to stretch your imagination, whether you are dreaming of being a Jedi Knight, scoring the goal that take Leicester City to the top of the league, or playing for your home town Bengals, is important. The ability to step outside of yourself, to escape the drudgery of your day, to take a well earned break, is really useful and I would definitely say life enhancing.

Very few people are given the physical talent and the opportunity to play professional sports, let alone pull off a move to their childhood team like AJ Hawk managed this offseason when he joined the Bengals. However, playing sports at any level is a useful way of keeping active, and if professional sports can inspire children to play a sport, and if as a society we can make that a habit so we have more adults exercising regularly, then we are already on the way to a healthier society.

The benefits of sport are not just physical though. I spend a large amount of time writing about the NFL because I enjoy, but it is also a type of practice. I’m never too sure how much faith I put in the idea of the 10 000 hour rule, but you don’t get better at anything without practice. I don’t just write about sports, in fact the first thing I started writing is fiction and over the course of the year that is what I spend the majority of my time writing, but this blog is a kind of cross training. Just as you hear of NFL players training in different sports in the offseason, or using martial arts training to help them play football, this blog helps me work on the discipline and craft required for writing. This however is not the only non-physical benefit of sport.

A team can help community in a city, or even further afield as sports become increasingly global, but the mental benefit is more than bringing a group of people together, or making you happy when a team wins. Going back to children’s participation in sport, this is a good place for a child to learn what it means to be part of a team, and how to work hard at something, and possibly most importantly, dealing with failure. Why is dealing with failure important? Because in a society that seems to be increasingly trying to protect children from failure, that praises success, we very seldom seem to focus on the steps that it takes to become successful.

In Seatle Seahawks’ head coach Pete Caroll’s book, Win Forever – Live,Work, and Play Like a Champion, Caroll outlines the steps and journey that took him to defining his coaching philosophy that he calls Win Forever. This is the philosophy he uses to approach coaching a football team based around his belief in competition, and how he thinks a football team should function, but also how he approaches life in general. I have been thinking about this as at the end of the book he also challenges the reader to come up with their own plan, which believe it or not I have been thinking about off and on since the spring. I wouldn’t say it’s coherent yet, and I haven’t got the definition down to twenty five worse or less, but I have the name. Process over outcome, which I grant you is not as snappy as Win Forever, but here’s the point – I don’t think you can always win. I don’t think you even should. Success does not come about through a series of success built on success, which in fairness is not what Pete Caroll is trying to say, success is the achievement of a goal through continuing a process in the face of adversity. To succeed at anything, first you have to fail. I’m in danger of sounding like an internet meme, but in a world of random probability it is impossible to absolutely guarantee an outcome for anything other than the most basic of tasks. However, by focussing on controlling the process, learning from your mistakes, and by continually trying to improve, you can maximise your potential for success, and that’s all anybody can do. I base this on my experience of playing drums for over twenty years and easily clocking 10 000 practice hours, and over the last twenty years or so I have clocked up a fair number of hours writing. However, not everyone has those interests, and another way to get there is sport. I don’t know how many hours I have spent running, but I am still learning and whilst I will never get close to international competition, I am still inspired by Paula Radcliffe, Haile Gebrselassie, Mo Farrah, and David Rudisha. I also love lifting weights, and through spending many years fighting gravity with a barbell I have learned about discipline, dealing with adversity, and persistence.

I am not saying there are no problems in sport, in fact if you have been listening to the podcast you will have heard me point out huge failings in the way the NFL runs. I’m also not saying that being overly obsessed with your team isn’t a problem – obsession taken too far can definitely cause problems, but if obsession can be harnessed it can also lead to greatness. I may love writing, I may adore the arts, but I love sport as well, and being a fan is as much of my personality as anything else. I don’t mind if you don’t love the NFL, but don’t give up on sport, I am sure that if you look there’s something out there for you.

Moving away from my soap box, I’m also pretty damn competitive, so I won’t pretend that I’m not happy about having an eight game lead over Dan with three weeks to go of the regular season, but I’m not overconfident so let’s get to the Thursday night game and the first of our picks for week fifteen.

Gee:    Week 14   7-9             Overall   108-100
Dan:    Week 14   8-8             Overall   100-108

Buccaneers @ Rams (-0.5)

The Rams caught me of guard last week by playing well, but they have a history of winning games that make you think they are turning a corner, and then sinking straight back into the mire. The Buccaneers have definitely made progress this year, but were handled surprisingly easily last week by a Saints team that have not been good this season and who have had real problems all season on defence. The Rams defence is definitely better than the Saints and so I should have pause this weeks, but whilst I’m nervous, I simply do not trust the Rams in this situation.

Gee’s Pick:     Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:    Buccaneers

Thoughts on Linebackers and Safeties

10 Thursday Dec 2015

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The league is heading into the final quarter with only a number of teams still in the hunt for the playoffs, although things are beginning to settle. Even so, teams that are completely out of the playoff race are still generating plenty of headlines.

The Cleveland Browns on/off dalliance with Johnny Manziel being there starting quarterback only further demonstrates the dysfunction at the top of this franchise. There are rumours flying round of conflict between those who want Manziel to start, and those for whom he has already burned his bridges with. You can see how a coaching staff that will want to be getting hired again next year if they can’t secure their jobs this year, a coaching staff who want to win games, could come into conflict with a front office group who need to know what they have in an their first round pick from two years ago and whether it is time to move on already. The problem is that with the turnover in both coaches and front office staff, it is very hard to establish a culture and go through the process it takes to turn around a franchise in trouble, and very often it seems like when a team is turned into a success, this improvement is built off the back of previous regime’s work. That said, there has been such a carousel at quarterback and staff at the Browns that it is hard to know when things will turn round.

I don’t want to pile on to the poor Browns so I’ll stop using them as an example, but I did want to pick up on a couple of things from listening to the Ross Tucker podcast this week, without turning the column into an advert, and also tie this in with tonight’s exciting game between the Cardinals and the Vikings.

On his usual Wednesday spot, regular guest Andrew Brandt was speaking about why he was a fan of Chip Kelly, and specifically talked about him as an agent of change, and that this was a rare thing in a lot of aspects in coaching. This could be seen as a curious concept given how often we hear about coaching innovations, but it seems that very often what we hear described as innovation is in fact a new wrinkle or a variation on a concept. Spread offences and pass first offences are not a new concept, but the sophistication of modern schemes is, however equally you will hear from retired players that the technique at certain positions is in decline and that this could be due to the reduced amount of time that coaches get to work with their players, particularly in the more physical drills. I don’t want to delve too far into this, but what it did get me thinking about was that if you compare the sophistication with which coaches and management are dealing with the way that a football team is constructed and plays, versus the way the media breaks down the roster then maybe we are missing a trick or two.

There was a great discussion between Ross Tucker and Greg Cosell today about tonight’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings, and the bit that grabbed me was their discussion about Deone Bucannon who Cosell described as a 210 Ibs linebacker, although he’s listed on the Cardinals’ website as safety. Now they were talking about whether this was the future of the position, these what would be traditionally undersized linebackers who could cover and cope in this age of spread defences. One of the reasons I love Cosell is he’ll always state when hasn’t seen something or can’t speak on it, but also how he’ll remained balanced, and he countered Rot Tucker’s question on how much you needed heft at the point of attack these days with the way the league is going by saying that this is not absolutely the case and let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I don’t want to get pick holes with either of them as they both know more about football than me, the podcast can be found here, but it did get me thinking.

Firstly, this weekend I am going back to look at the coaching tape from last week’s Ravens @ Dolphins game as Dan would like me to take a look at Ryan Tannehill’s performance. Next week I think I will take a look at the Cardinal’s use of Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu as I’ve been meaning to look at the Cardinals use of extra DBs in there defence for a while.

Secondly, the conversation about the future got me thinking again about linebacker groups, and something I have thought about before concerning them and the use of specialist safeties. I’ll apologise for bringing things back to the Bengals, but they are the team I watch week in and out, so in this case it easier to demonstrate what I am talking about by using them as an example in discussing the analysis of roster construction and how we talk about building a team.

In the offseason linebacker was one of the areas of concern for the Bengals as they had been banged up last season, had really struggled to defend the run when Rey Maualuga was out injured, plus Vontaze Burfict who had really come into his own was also injured and would be coming of microfracture surgery going into this season. The Bengals approach wasn’t to go out and secure a high price starting linebacker in free agency or draft a linebacker high, but neither was it to fill their roster with a middle linebacker, weak and strong side backers and then backups. Instead they drafted a linebacker, signed AJ Hawk as a free agent and resigned Maualuga. I know some were not sure about this approach, or what they did with the defensive line, but what was clever is that they built themselves a group with a set of complimentary skills and gave themselves depth. They have the ability to rotate their linebackers to have the right players for the job depending on who they are playing. Facing a team who power run up the gut, then that offence is going to have to deal with Rey Maualuga in the A gap, but if you’re facing a spread offence then you can drop into a nickel defence with the extra db, but also with a speedy linebacker like Emmanuel Lamur to help cover those linebackers who cause all those matchup problems.

For me this is an area where teams could innovate, that tweener safety/linebacker that so often was a concern in the draft, could become the new tool to help cover those nightmare tight ends and help deal with spread concepts. However, I’m wary of saying that is will become the new way of doing things. Sure you may have some lighter starters, but with this age of injury and increased difficulty for defences, maybe there is an edge to be found in crafting a linebacker group to have multiple types of player designed to rotate snaps in different amounts depending on the situation. I don’t think the days of the run stuffing middle linebacker are over, but possibly gone are the days when they are the star of the defence and play a lot of snaps, but if the balance in the NFL tips too far towards speed defences, then you can bet your bottom dollar that someone will start running power running games with success.

So I shall look forward to take a close look at the defence of the Cardinals as we go back into my picks competition with Dan, who slipped further behind again last week.

Gee:    Week 13   10-6            Overall   101-91
Dan:    Week 13   8-8              Overall   92-100

Vikings @ Cardinals (-7.5)

This is a really bad spot for the Vikings as they will be missing three starters on defence again this week, and the last thing they really need it so be travelling from Minnesota to Arizona to face a Cardinals team that is going from strength to strength. I would usually expect this to be a closer game, but with the match ups and timing favouring the Cardinals I am going to back them to cover this in a game I’m really looking forward to.

Gee ‘s Pick:   Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

Browns at Bengals, Coaching Tape Madness, and Week 9 Picks

08 Sunday Nov 2015

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I’m attempting a little personal madness this morning as I try to fit three separate things I usually write into one week saving article so here goes.

The Bengals welcomed the Browns to town this Thursday as the battle of Ohio played out in from of a national audience, and it was a dramatic turn around from last year’s game that the Browns won, leaving Andy Dalton with 2.0 passer rating.

On offence the Browns started Johnny Manziel and it feels somewhat strange that he is starting and we’ve had barely a mention of the incident with his girlfriend in their car. We don’t know all the details yet so it is too early to judge, but given that the NFL are investigating what happened, it feels odd for him to be playing in this new world of investigations and Commissioner’s exempt list that we have become so familiar with. On the field he demonstrated both the flaws within the structure of the offence that is the real criticism of his play, and that when plays brake down you get glimpses of the play making ability that tantalise some into thinking that he could make it work. Whilst you wouldn’t say he exactly played badly, the one touchdown drive he had relied heavily on three long plays where he was forced out of the pocket and was able to find a receiver down the field. The problem is that the Bengals adjusted at half time to focus on keeping him in the pocket and the Browns didn’t score another point. The Browns generated a measly two hundred and thirteen yards total offence, unable to run or pass consistently to sustain drives leading to them getting ten less first downs than the Bengals in the game.

Part of the Browns struggle was that despite having two very well known offensive linemen in Alex Mack and Joe Thomas, they really struggled against the Bengals defensive line who were able to get pressure on Manziel consistently even if they only started sacking him in the second half. Watching the line you frequently saw Geno Atkins disrupting plays with penetration and he got himself a sack whilst Carlos Dunlap picked up two. There were also a number of batted passes when Manziel was throwing the ball, as the defence adapted and stiffened to keep the Browns contained all game.

The Bengals offence took advantage of the Browns problems with run defence gaining one hundred and fifty-two yards split between the team leading Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Meanwhile Andy Dalton was quietly efficient in the passing game, throwing for two hundred and thirty-four yards on twenty-one completions from twenty-seven attempts with Tyler Eifert catching all three of his touchdown passes. Eifert has been one of the huge differences to the Bengals this year with the matchup problems he creates and the help he has given in the red zone contributing to this team’s number two ranking on offence by DVOA.

I don’t feel there’s a lot to write about the Browns defence having already mentioned their season long problem with defending the run, but they did manage to get a couple of sacks and actually looked quite good against the pass in this game. However, even when things went well the Browns gave up points in Brown like ways. In the second quarter on the drive where they gave up a touchdown, Randy Starks stuffed Giovani Bernard and immediately gave up a fifteen yard penalty for taunting, and not content with that later on he gave the Bengals a first down and rescued their drive when he was caught offside on a play that should have turned the ball over due to an incompletion.

In the first half I thought my pick for the game might stand a chance with the Browns only four points behind at the end, but the defence adjusted and the Bengals eased themselves out to another win. I’m still waiting for things to go wrong, but obviously I am thrilled with how the season has gone so far. The Browns were shopping players at the end of the trade window, although who would think that they would make the most of any of the draft picks they were looking for. There needs to be a much more stable plan in Cleveland if they hope to ever do something in the AFC North.

Now it is time for me to move into the coaching tape write up, which this week I am combining with my normal weekly column as I am running out of time this week, but also I fell into one of the traps that highlights the joys and the madness of the NFL.

We all enjoy the excitement, admire the skill, and marvel at the physicality of watching football on game day, but there is also a whole other world of things to discover in the coaching tape. The all twenty-two and end zone views allow us to study all the personnel groupings, formations, and schematic battles that occur on every down, showing us why a receiver is wide open, why a player is dancing through the offensive line to make a tackle or sack in the backfield.

The problem for someone like me is that this season I am picking one game to go through, and then I have everything to look at. I am still refining my note taking, but I sat for an hour going through the Colts at Panthers from week eight and didn’t even make it out of the first quarter!

What I did see was that the Panthers defence is really good, and if you look at the end zone view you can really see why Luke Kuechly is such a special linebacker. Not only is he active before the snap, but he diagnoses the play so quickly and can knife forward to stuff the run at the line of scrimmage or drop seamlessly into coverage. It was also interesting to look at the Panthers offence and see just how they are maximising their output from Cam Newton, who is playing better this season but still overthrows receivers regularly in the passing game and can lack touch. However, he is a unique weapon in the running game as you simply do not see a quarterback regularly run head down like a running back into the opposing defence. It would terrify me if I was a Panthers fan as he takes so many hits, but he also pops up into the kind of face to face confrontation with the tackling defender in a way reminiscent of a running back, which is a lot of fun.

I didn’t see that many snaps by the Colts offence due to the flow of the quarter, but it is strange to see the media narrative surrounding Andrew Luck’s season, where he has gone from the next generational league saving quarterback in the preseason to a failing quarterback. There are worrying trends this season, he’s always thrown interceptions, but they are getting worse this season, and I got to see that in the one quarter of football in this game that I did see. On third down Charles Tillman playing right corner dropped into an under zone and Luck clearly did not account for him when he threw to TY Hilton running a route behind the corner, and so Tillman was able to intercept the ball before Hilton had a chance to make the catch. The problem is not so much the receivers, but the offensive line they have put in front of Luck and the twenty-fifth by DVOA rush offence they have given him this season. A young quarterback is always helped by a rushing game, and there has been a long string of quarterbacks who have been knocked out of the league by playing behind lines that could not protect them. The Colts fired their offensive coordinator and promoted Rob Chudzinski in a weirdly timed move given they have a short week before facing the leagues best defence and then go into a bye.

If you  read anything about NFL coaching, then you will likely hear about the hours they put into looking at tape and coming up with plans, and as an amateur with an interest it easy to how. When you start looking at the personnel on the field, how they are lined up on both sides of the ball, what the offence is running, what coverages are the defence playing, how well each player executed, down and distance, what reads a player had to make… the list really could be if not endless, extremely long. At least if you are a position coach then your area of focus is defines, and I think this is how I am going to try to reduce the task for me as I simply can’t spend hours and hours looking at one game no matter how much I want to. However, I can see how coaches do it, and why there’s always something else to see, because it is endlessly fascinating. Whether it’s watching route combinations to see how they get a player open, how a defence has balanced getting pressure against covering the five possible receivers of the offence, or the simple joy of watching a pass rusher setup an offensive linemen with a series of outside speed moves before bull rushing up the inside to get a sack, there is always a new nuance to learn or play to admire. There are so many coaching hours put into what we see each week, and the margins are so fine that very capable people can look foolish when they have probably been stressing all week a particular point that a player simply didn’t execute on Sunday. That is one of the strengths of the Patriots, they are so well coached that they appear ready each and every week despite the fact that they play such radically different game plans depending on the opponent.

I could continue to wax lyrical, but I would rather say that if you have NFL Game Pass, do yourself a favour and take a look at some coaching tape. It’s okay to be lost, but stick with it and I think you will start finding new things to admire and be fascinated by.

Now I finally move into the picks for this week, where Dan has already picked up a game on me this week so let’s see if I can get it back:

Dolphins @ Bills (-2.5)

I’m not convinced by either side who were both meant to be competing for the AFC East title this season, but things look at lot more familiar with the Patriots running away with the division. The Dolphins lost a huge part of their defence in Cameron Wake, and whilst I don’t expect a repeat of he beating they took last time they played, the Bills are getting some players back and have to get something going soon if they want to save their season

Gee’s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Packers @ Panthers (+2.5)

I think this is game of the week and it is being show for free on Freeview in the UK this weekend. I’m not sure why the Packers have got a five and half point swing given that they are on the road and the Panthers have playing very well this season. I think this is going to be a close game and if I am getting points as an unbeaten home team then I’ll take them, even if the Panthers do have to lose at some point

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Packers

Titans @ Saints (-7.5)

The Titans have fired their coach, and visit a Saints team who have definitely got their offence working better although the Giants’s defence was as poor as the Saints’ in last week’s highly entertaining game. I don’t see the Titans winning, and whilst the Saints may struggle to get this far ahead with their defence, it’s not going to stop me picking them.

Gee’s Pick:    Saints
Dan’s Pick:    Saints

Raiders @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Raiders are for real this season, beating a Jets team that may not have looked like themselves, but the Raiders have a winning record and hope for the first time in years. This week they face a different kind of team in the Steelers who are coming off a tough loss to the Bengals where they also lost Le’Veon Bell for the season. The Steelers have hung tough all year with a defence that has kept them in games whilst their potentially explosive offence has rotated injuries. I can see the Steelers winning it, but given all that’s going on I’m not sure why they are giving up more points this week against Raiders, even if the Raiders do have to come across from the west coast.

Gee’s Pick:    Raiders
Dan’s Pick:    Raiders

Rams @ Vikings (-2.5)

This looks to be another good game, but it might be one too many for a Vikings team who have quietly done well, but may well struggle against this Rams defence, whilst rookie Todd Gurley is rapidly looking like one of the best running backs in the league.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    Rams

Washington @ Patriots (-13.5)

Things have faded in Washington whilst the Patriots go from strength to strength and whilst the points give me pause, not for long enough to go against the Patriots at home.

Gee’s Pick:    Patriots
Dan’s Pick:    Patriots

Jaguars @ Jets (-6.5)

The Jets quarterback situation alone is enough for me to think that this game will be closer than this line suggests, and whilst I have a history of getting Jaguar picks wrong, they are coming off a win in London where they finally had to put together a late drive to win and did. I could regret this, but I’m jumping back on the Jaguars bandwagon for another week.

Gee’s Pick:    Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Falcons @ 49ers (+6.5)

The Falcons have flaws, and I might be worried about this line if it was not for the fact that the 49ers are starting Blaine Gabbert at quarterback this week. Watch me be wrong spectacularly later today, but I can’t pick it.

Gee’s Pick:    Falcons
Dan’s Pick:    Falcons

Giants @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

The Giants have activated Jason Pierre-Paul, and whilst I have no idea if this will impact their pass rush or not, I have more faith in their offence than the Buccaneers defence. I just don’t trust the Buccaneers even if they did beat the Falcons last week.

Gee’s Pick:    Giants
Dan’s Pick:    Giants

Broncos @ Colts (+3.5)

The Colts new offensive coordinator has his toughest test in his first week, and whilst the points do give me a little pause given that the Colts are at home, they are not a good team and I think the Broncos remain unbeaten for another week behind their amazing defence. It will be interesting to see if their offensive performance against the Packers was an anomaly or a sign of things coming together after their bye week.

Gee’s Pick:    Broncos
Dan’s Pick:    Broncos

Eagles @ Cowboys (+2.5)

The Cowboys have not won a game since losing Tony Romo, and the Eagles defence is what they have been leaning on this year. You can never be certain about anything with the Eagles this year, but I think they will win this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Eagles
Dan’s Pick:    Eagles

Bears @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers’ injury problems continue as they lost Keenan Allen for the year to a lacerated kidney, which is an injury that makes you shudder just to write it. The Chargers defence is a mess, whilst Rivers has to play at a high level to keep his team close in losses, and they have had no home field advantage. I think the Bears will keep this one close as they have at least become solid in John Fox’s first year even if this hasn’t turned into wins.

Gee’s Pick:    Bears
Dan’s Pick:    Bears

What I Have Been Watching

31 Monday Aug 2015

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I’m still catching up with games after my holiday, so it feels somewhat redundant to bringing your detailed round ups of the first week’s action with the third going on at the moment. Let’s face it, if you are coming here for your breaking news then I question your use of the internet. That said, there are still lots of relevant things to discuss as I take you through what I’ve been watching, and what I’ve been missing as well.

I’ll start with the Bengals, and whilst I’m hopeful that the defensive line rotation already looks more effective, and the first team offense look good as it marched down the field to get a touchdown on the opening drive.

What I really want to talk about here are quarterbacks. There is no question that everybody is waiting for Andy Dalton to backup his four playoff appearances in his first four seasons with a playoff win. In fact there’s no shortage of people calling for his head and saying that the Bengals should move on. However, whilst I’m not a Dalton apologist, I do think there is a more nuanced position to be taken in between the two camps.

There is no doubt that when is off, his play looks terrible. He can look lost, miss throws, and people question his leadership. The thing is that leadership is about how you do your job and get the best of those around you, and it doesn’t have to be done by shouting and leading from the front. But leadership also has to be earned, and in the recent seasons we seen the trend in the NFL has been to play quarterbacks much earlier and be less patient with them.

Now apart from the physical tools required to play the game, there is a huge quantity of data for a quarterback to process so he can execute the play for each play that he is on the field. To get good at this requires the right kind of brain, but also a huge number of reps, be them mental, practice, or in the game. There simply aren’t enough good quarterbacks to go round for a league of thirty-two, and so whilst everyone would love to have an elite franchise quarterback, you can win with above average quarterback play and I wonder how many players could win if they were in a situation where they were developed properly over time.

Last year’s playoff loss was horrible to watch, but the team were so injured in the skill positions when it came to receivers, that the offence couldn’t move the ball. Now at that point Dalton couldn’t throw the team better like Brady has done in the past. However, Brady is in the discussion as one of the best quarterbacks ever, and so let’s not throw Dalton out just yet.

Particularly as which of the Bengals’ quarterback would you replace him with? AJ McCarron had shoulder problems last year and has been troubled by a rib injury this season so I’ve yet to see him take a snap yet, even if his performance in game two was enough to have Josh Johnson released.

It was Josh Johnson’s performance that to me highlighted the problem of quarterbacking in this league. There were plays that he made with his arm and legs that demonstrated why he has hung around the league for six seasons already, but the lack of consistency was troubling. For me he is too quick to take off and use his legs, although he at least doesn’t take the kind of hits that are truly terrifying, but in the first game he threw two balls that should have been intercepted, and at least one if not both could have been returned for touchdowns.

It is coming towards the time where you may well have to decide that Dalton is not going to develop enough, and that it is time to move on, but I don’t think the Bengals are there yet. I am hopeful that with Hue Jackson going into his second year as offensive coordinator, that this team can get the playoff monkey off Dalton, and Marvin Lewis’ back.

So moving on from the Bengal’s first game, let us talk about preseason games and what I can see, as well as one of my favourite series around this time of year, namely Hard Knocks.

I haven’t been back to watch the years I wasn’t able to see, but as a football obsessive it doesn’t really matter who the team is as I love getting this glimpse of what is going on. This year is even better for me as we’re getting to watch JJ Watt in training, which should just be a series in of itself. However, I have enjoyed watching Bill O’Brien as a head coach, and it always nice to see the personalities behind the facemasks, which is all you see of so many players.

However, it has highlighted the problems of trying to analyse games deeply when you only have the TV copy, which is what you have for preseason on Gamepass. Through commentary, and replay you can see what’s going on if it is highlighted, but if you’re trying to look out for specific players, or watch certain coverage to figure out how s player got so wide open, it can be really difficult without the all twenty-two and end zone views. It also means that you tend to focus on skill players, and flashy defensive plays, but you miss a lot of what is going on around the lines or in the receiving game before the player catches the ball.

It is interesting to me that so often people seem to want their coaches to be all out disciplinarians, and that the term player’s coach is as often used more as a criticism than a complement. I have found it fascinating to watch the way Mike Vrabel has been coaching the Texans’ linebackers, and in particular Kourtnei Brown. I don’t want to single out Vrabel for criticism as he is working in a culture that he’s deeply steeped in, he was a really good player, and he is trying to bring out the best in his charges. But different people respond to different types of coaching, and I wonder if there was not a more nuanced way to approach the message he was trying to get across. That said, Brown had an amazing sequence of snaps in the third quarter of their game against the 49ers, getting two sacks along side multiple pressures as things really began to click for the NFL journeymen who may yet make the squad. I’ll be interested to see the rest of their games, and I shall make sure to have watched their third game before I watch the fourth episode of Hard Knocks as that is the only thing I am up to date with so far.

So, if I was frustrated by the camera angles in the Texans game as I was looking to spot the players I had been watching in Hard Knocks, the Colts at the Eagles was the game I made most notes about of the preseason week one games. I picked two teams because I wanted to look at their coaching thank to the offseason reading I had been done and this proved to be a good choice in this game.

The real proof of what Chip Kelly has been doing in the offseason will be how they perform in the games, and in this first preseason game, things looked pretty damn good. But what I really want to focus on this week is an aspect I particularly liked about the Eagles offence, and don’t worry folks, it wasn’t Tim Tebow.

There has been a lot of talk about how good Kelly’s system is, and that it is quarterback proof. I might not go that far as I don’t think any system can really cope with bad quarterback play, but it is really well structured, and what I really admired about it whilst watching this game was the commitment to deception, and specifically the run/pass questions it asked of the oppositions defence.

Apart from the use of quarterback options plays, if you watch the backfield of the Eagles, on almost every play the quarterback/running back gives you a look of the opposite of what they are doing. You have quarterbacks faking that they’ve kept the ball on run plays, play action passes, and draw plays. This commitment forces the defensive players to make a read on every play, which means they have to respect both possibilities and this can get you easy receptions just as much as route combinations designed to attack a particular coverage.

From what I can see, one of the reasons that rookie tight end Eric Tomlinson was wide open in the second quarter, was because Cam Johnson had to make a read on the play fake run as he dropped into coverage with Tomlinson, and so he was just a fraction late, taking too flat of an angle to make a tackle on the Eagles tight end and so what could have been a short gain goes for nineteen yards.

The pace of the Eagles’ offence is really hard to judge on the condensed view, other than that the coverage is frequently scrambling to catch up and a number of plays were missed or picked up half way through as they were too quick for the TV team who were still looking at the previous play, so you can see how it can stress a defence.

The final game I watched from the first week was the Chiefs at the Cardinals, and in this is the hardest for me to comment on. The Cardinals have had a change in defensive coordinator this year, and the number of defensive backs that they were typically using last year in combination with the way they rushed the passer is something that’s really hard to look out without really going over game film rather than the TV game footage.

However, it was really nice to Carson Palmer back and playing, and you can see the potential in Logan Thomas, certainly with his arm, but he still needs time to develop. The team moved the ball well with the first team, but I shall be really interested to see how they develop going forward, and hopefully will get a better understanding of what Bruce Arians is planning for the upcoming season.

I have a lot more games to watch, as I try to catch up with the NFL, but going over games isn’t exactly a chore. So roll on more games, the season is coming!

A Coach’s Time of Year

09 Sunday Aug 2015

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With training camps open across the NFL, I have been looking back at my offseason reading and thinking about something that is talked about in America when comparing the major sports. It is often said that baseball is a GMs’ league, basketball is a players’ league, but that the NFL is a coaches’ league. This is an oversimplification for all of the sports, but in the NFL the level of competition is such that a coach can only do so much to overcome a real deficit in talent given how fine the margins are between winning, but this is the part of the season where a coach really demonstrates what does make the NFL a coaches’ league.

A football coach has to be more than just someone who gives an inspired half-time speech, in fact there is only so often he can pull that trick given the frequency of games, and how often it is do or die time. In fact it seems to me that there is so much to do for a head coach that we routinely oversimplify their role when judging them. There are thousands of hours of planning, preparation, and training that goes into getting a team to the game, yet alone managing the play calls, in-game adjustments, the clock, and liaising with your team of coaches. There is so much more to their job than whether you should run or pass a yard out from the end zone with twenty-six seconds left in the Super Bowl, although when you have one of the best short yardage backs in the game perhaps you should have run.

However, whilst there has been talk of how the Seahawks are going to come back from that loss, and the scars that decision will have left on Pete Carroll, having read Carroll’s book on his coaching philosophy I think that this has been over blown. His whole coaching philosophy is built round competition, and specifically always competing to win forever. I don’t know how many NFL coaches have gone away, sat down and deliberately written down their philosophy in such a structured way, but I’m pretty sure that a focus around always competing with yourself to do things better than they have been done before is likely to deal with a set back like losing the Super Bowl in such a heart breaking manner pretty well.

So why is this time of year so important to the coaches? The answer is pretty straight forward, time. During the marathon of the season there is so much time spent dealing with recovery, installing the game plan, travel, and dealing with matters that crop up that there is only so much time a coach can spend actually working with their players. It is in training camp where a coach gets to work for a prolonged period setting the tone for the upcoming season. It is also the time where a coach has almost double his game day roster, and so whilst you never want to over work your players, it is possible to get a huge amount of work done and to get in all the reps you want. This is where there is time to work on technique, getting the rookies and free agents steeped in how your team plays football, the calls, the structure of your playbook, and getting your timing down. These are all standard parts of training camp that remain true even if the old fashioned two-a-day practices and some of the more confrontational contact drills are becoming relics of the past.

There has been talk for years that the preseason is too long, and that coaches only two of the pre-season games to get their teams ready. I wouldn’t presume to know if this is true or not, but just trying to keep up with the news coming out of a training camp is a mission in itself. Like much of the pre-season content, it is filled with optimism. Players that are in the best shape of their lives, players on the come back trail from injury, the new picks looking good already. The proof is coming though, we have the NFL Hall of Fame game tonight, and next we’ll start getting actual football.

I wrote last year about how there is plenty to fascinate during the offseason and I am really looking forward to the up-coming preseason. It was quite hard for me to narrow down the teams I was going to watch through the preseason, but in the end I managed to get the list down to four. The Bengals were a given, and they are the team that I will understand best due to following them with the obsessive interest of the fan. The next obvious team was the Houston Texans, not just because I am such a huge fan of JJ Watt, but because they are this year’s team being covered by the TV series Hard Knocks. I will be fascinated to see how Watt practices as his work ethic is widely praised, but it will also be great to follow the series and watch all the games.

I am planning to watch two more teams, and after my offseason reading it was actually fairly easy to identify the theme if not whittle down to the two remaining teams. It became obvious to me that what I love about Football is not just the physicality and spectacle, but the tactics involved and the coaching that going into the games. So if I was going to focus on well coached teams who would be the other teams I would watch this season?

The Cardinals managed to get to the playoffs despite losing two starting quarterbacks and in my opinion were one of the best coached teams of last year. They have lost their defensive coordinator as Todd Bowles has become head coach of the New York Jets, but given the fantastic job Bruce Arians and his staff did I really want to take a look at them this preseason. It is also going to be interesting to see what effect the hiring of the NFL’s first female coach will have, even if it is only for the span of training camp. Doctor Jen Welter has played professional football for fourteen years, has a master’s degree in sports psychology and PhD in psychology, and so is a pretty incredible person just from the get go so I hope things go well with her working with the inside linebackers during camp.

The other team I am going to be watching is one that has dominated the offseason news when it has not been focussed on deflated footballs or other matters of league discipline management. I first really went all in with Chip Kelly whilst listening to him on the Ross Tucker’s podcast, and I was seriously impressed. However, since he’s been given the GM responsibility Kelly has demonstrated that he is not afraid to do things his way, but I’m not entirely sold. At the start of the offseason moves I could see an underlying plan, that he would trust his system to generate offense, and that he would invest in players on the defensive side of the ball. Then Kelly started signing expensive running backs and letting go of starting offensive linemen. There is also the small matter of not having an established starter at quarterback and not making the playoffs last season. I will be fascinated to watch what all the turmoil of the offseason produces this year, and shall have to make a point of watching the TV feed for some of their games as you simply do not pick up the tempo difference between the Eagles’ offence and other teams when you are watching the condensed cut or coaches’ tape.

So roll on the first game this evening as the football season gets closer and closer to starting.

The Bengals Offseason, Featuring a Brush with Hardy

02 Sunday Aug 2015

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I have had a draft of this post saved for months, but life kept getting in the way of things getting restarted. However, with training camps opening up across the league there can be no more delays so I’m going to kick things off properly with a look at the Bengals.

I have been enjoying my break, and whilst there were lots of things I could have been writing about, the amount of coverage the offseason gets these days seems to be getting somewhat out of hand. That is not to say that this is not an important time of year, but every offseason we have winners declared for free agency that go on to have rotten seasons (see the 2014 Buccaneers) and draft grades handed out to teams before their new charges have even taken a snap. It is not so much the quantity, as the certainty of conclusions about the upcoming season and the topics that just will not die (deflate gate, and Tom Brady’s ongoing appeals), that gets me down.

I’m not going to be exhaustive about the Bengals offseason, but will take a look at the general shape and pick out some key points.

“It’s hard to be a Bengals fan… How do you find hope in that situation?”

This is a quote was from a podcast discussing the state of the Bengals franchise, and in fairness the hosts were in the middle of making positive points about what a good job Marvin Lewis had done given the situation that he is working in. But there was a questioning of the lack of aggression in free agency, and how could you get excited about the changes for the upcoming season. This comment was also made before the draft, but I’ll cover that in more detail in a bit.

I understand the fans who think that Marvin Lewis should have lost his job, or been moved to general manager before last season so that Mike Zimmer could have been made head coach, not have his contract extended by another year despite not winning a playoff game in twelve seasons.

The problem with that is I think there is something of a double standard here. The Bengals may have the longest playoff win drought in the NFL, but they have just been to the playoffs for the fourth straight season, and this resurgence has been built through the draft. Gone are the days when the team would reach for need, and they have been consistently recognised as a very talented team who draft well. There are still flaws, as all teams have flaws, but their focus in recent offseasons has been holding onto their own and drafting well. This is how they have gone from the national joke Bungles to a respectable team, usually in the hunt for a playoff place in one of the toughest divisions in football.

This is also the team that let Michael Johnsons go last year as they didn’t want to compete with the contract that the Buccaneers were offering, received a third round compensatory pick this offseason, as well as resigning Johnson after he was cut by the Buccaneers. Between this move and the signing of a couple defensive tackles, the Bengals have improved the defensive-line rotation enough that they didn’t have to reach for a pass rusher in the draft, although they have to improve on the disaster that was the pass rush last year but making Wallace Gilberry a situations pass rusher again can only help.

This for me is the key point, the Bengals’ free agent moves weren’t designed to fix everything, but were designed so that going into the draft they can stick to the mantra of recent years, which is to pick the best player responsible. I’m not saying that the resigning of Rey Maualuga, and the acquisition of AJ Hawk have solved the linebacker problems the team had last year, but they mean the Bengals have enough depth that they can pick at the right point. Plus, if you saw the difference in the way the defence stopped the run with and without Maualuga last season, you would be happy he’s back with your team. There are only so many Luke Kuechlys to go round.

However, I am now about to contradict myself a bit as I found the Bengals draft a little confusing. I understand the need to draft a tackle with both starters Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith coming to the end of their contracts, and Whitworth coming towards the end of a great career, but there doesn’t seem to be any sign of Whitworth slowing down yet, so picking tackles with their first two picks seems a little odd given the problems with the pass rush and depth at receiver last year. However, it doesn’t look like the team reached, they picked up a linebacker and have really made a real effort to resolve the problems a tight ends with two draft picks and a couple of rookie free agents signed at that position. At the end of the day, you can only judge a draft three or four seasons later so I’m not going to pass judgement here.

Nonetheless, the lack of an early pass rusher pick would indicate to me that they really are happy with the depth they have on the d-line and are expecting more out of recent picks Margus Hunt and Will Clarke. However, there is one of other topic I have to mention before we get back to football as much of the talk at the beginning of the offseason was the Bengals’ anaemic pass rush, and one name was repeatedly mentioned as a possible solution was Greg Hardy.

“He looked me in my eyes and he told me he was going to kill me. I was so scared I wanted to die. When he loosened his grip slightly, I said, ‘Just do it. Kill me.’ At that point I accepted I was going to die.”

That is a quote from Hardy’s ex-girlfriend during his trial where it was also revealed that he threw her onto a sofa covered in loaded assault rifles. The conviction has been wiped away as part of North Carolina law due to the court not being able to find the woman for Hardy’s appeal to be heard in front of a jury, and it is believed there has been a financial settlement between them. This has cleared the way for Hardy’s return to the NFL, and what’s more he has had his suspension for this season reduced from ten games to four.

It is worth repeating that this man was still found guilty by a judge of assaulting a female and communicating threats.

Unfortunately, he can also rush the passer.

This meant that he was mentioned by the media as one solution to the Bengals defensive problem. I understand why, but I hated the way it was always couched in a way where the non-football issues would be acknowledged tacitly, but skirted over to get to the football part. I’m sorry, not good enough. I did not, and do not want him on my team. And I am not sure how many players would. You often hear of the sanctity of locker room and how disagreements there should not get out, yet the one team who did see fit to sign Hardy began to have rumblings at the start of their conditioning programme.

There is a genuine discussion to be had about rehabilitation of people, and it is something we have seen in the UK sport world with the case of unrepentant convicted rapist Ched Evans looking for a team to take him on again. He has the backing of the Professional Footballers’ Association that he should be allowed to play, but every team that has been linked to him has been besieged by objection and has eventually backed away from actually signing the player. One defence of signing Evans that has been offered is that he has a right to make a living, but I would not say he should be stopped from getting a job, but I don’t see that he has a divine right to play a sport and be held up us a role model whilst earning multiples of the average wage.

The sickening thing in both cases is that there seems to be an equation that revolves around talent versus disruption. Getting back to the NFL, someone like Hardy or Ray Rice are talented enough that teams have tried to work their way round the issue and are keen to let due process play out, where as a less talented player will simply be cut straight away. With Ray Rice, it was only when the video of him punching his then girlfriend now wife emerged that the NFL re-evaluated their punishment of him, but only after the public outcry and pressure from their sponsors got to a level that had to be dealt with. Of course they couldn’t make the new punishment stick as they had already handed down a ban so Rice is clear to play again, but so far he is still too toxic for a team to sign.

The way the NFL tries to make up rules/discipline on the fly is likely a subject I shall touch on again, as Roger Goodell has repeatedly made a mess of this, but it seems that whilst the league continues to massively profitable that the owners have no interest in replacing him. There is not an easy answer on this one, and it is not up to a sporting league to fix societal problems like domestic violence, but even with the league’s increased focus and funding of programs both within the league and externally, it would be nice if teams focussed more on the moral matter than if we think we can get away with it because of their talent.

Getting back to on the field matters, the big question to me this year is will the team finally get the playoff win that will finally get people off Marin Lewis and Andy Dalton’s back. I hope so, not only as I’m desperate for them to break this streak, but as much as I’d like to see Lewis and Dalton succeed, there is a lot of talent on this team so I really don’t want to go through a rebuild with a new coach.

Looking at Dalton’s career so far, there are questions about his ability in high pressure games, but he was so limited last season in the weapons he had to throw to that I don’t think the playoff loss can as easily be put at his feet. However, there is no doubt that he does have a wide variance in the quality of his play, but if the line continues to be one of the best in the league, and the Bengals have more health in the receiving corp along side a running back rotation that they finally sorted towards the end of the season then hopefully the Bengals can look more like the team that started so strong last year rather than be the broken one last season. It is also worth mentioning that quarterbacks used to be given a lot more time to develop in previous years, and Dalton has gone to the playoffs in every one of his four seasons in the league.

One of the other things that is also worth remembering about last season, is that the Bengals were working with two new coordinators having lost the previous offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching positions, so making the playoffs again was a pretty good effort.

If things can be seen as looking hopeful on offence, there are more questions on the defence. The pass rush was just bad last year, so I really hope that they manage to get back to a deep rotation like the one that caused so much trouble under Mike Zimmer. It would also be brilliant to see Geno Atkins look more like himself another year from his knee injury as when fit, watching Atkins rush the passer is one of my favourite sights in the NFL. Additionally, whilst we still seem to have enough talent in the secondary, everyone is waiting nervously to see how Vontaze Burfict will come back from microfracture surgery on his knee. Hopefully the offseason signings, and the drafting of Paul Dawson will improve things this season, but the defence really missed Burfict last year.

If the team can be seen to be heading in the right direction, I am a little worried about the schedule. I don’t pay too much attention to the strength of schedule conversations as we don’t know a lot about how certain teams will play, or how healthy they will be, but I would rather not be facing the AFC or NFC west divisions as we are this year. Yet I’m still hopeful as football starts to get closer, and I do think this is the year the Bengals will get that playoff win.

That said, the offseason is always a time for optimism so lets see how things go when the season actually starts. I can’t wait!